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Nuclear Deterrence to a Nuclear Weapons Free World

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Nuclear Deterrence to a Nuclear Weapons Free World Moving Beyond Nuclear Deterrence to a Nuclear Weapons Free World ISSUE NO. 2, 2013 Nuclear Abolition Forum Dialogue on the Process to Achieve and Sustain a Nuclear Weapons Free World The Nuclear Abolition Forum strives to foster debate on key legal, technical, institutional and political elements for achieving the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons under a Nuclear Weapons Convention or package of agreements, as well as the process to achieving this. To this end, the Forum offers a dedicated website and a periodical to facilitate dialogue between academics, governments, disarmament experts and NGOs on such elements. The Forum is a joint project of eight leading organizations on disarmament and nonproliferation issues. For more information about Nuclear Abolition Forum, visit abolitionforum.org. Nuclear Abolition Forum Dialogue on the Process to Achieve and Sustain a Nuclear Weapons Free World C/o World Future Council 100 Pall Mall, SW1Y 5NQ London, United Kingdom Tel.: +44 (0) 20 7321 3810 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7321 3738 Email: [email protected] abolitionforum.org © Nuclear Abolition Forum, April 2013 Cover: “Cat’s Cradle/String Theory” (oil on canvas, 36" x 48"), 2008, by Baila Goldenthal. Design by Jana Jedličková. Moving Beyond Nuclear Deterrence to a Nuclear Weapons Free World Nuclear Abolition Forum · Issue No. 2 CONTRIBUTORS Ward Wilson Christopher Ford Paul Quilès Bruno Tertrais Sheel Kant Sharma Manpreet Sethi Alyn Ware Kiho Yi Hiromishi Umebayashi Nobuyasu Abe Hirofumi Tosaki Bill Kidd John Ainslie Uta Zapf Jonathan Granoff Rob van Riet David Krieger Richard Falk Teresa Bergman GUEST CO-EDITORS Marc Finaud Paul Meyer Manpreet Sethi Alyn Ware EDITOR Rob van Riet Dialogue on the Process to Achieve and Sustain a Nuclear Weapons Free World NUCLEAR ABOLITION FORUM Issue No. 2 April 2013 Moving Beyond Nuclear Deterrence to a Nuclear Weapons Free World CONTENTS About the Nuclear Abolition Forum ..................................................................................................................i Introduction and Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... iii Articles The Myth of Nuclear Necessity Ward Wilson ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Conceptual Challenges to Nuclear Deterrence Christopher Ford ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Nuclear Deterrence: Not Suitable for the 21st Century Paul Quilès .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Going to Zero: A Sceptical French Position Bruno Tertrais ........................................................................................................................................................ 13 The Future of Nuclear Disarmament Sheel Kant Sharma ................................................................................................................................................. 18 Identifying Principles for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World: The Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan as a Relevant Guide Manpreet Sethi ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 Taming Godzilla: Nuclear Deterrence in North-East Asia Alyn Ware, Kiho Yi and Hiromishi Umebayashi ................................................................................................... 29 Untangling Japan’s Nuclear Dilemma: Deterrence before Disarmament Nobuyasu Abe and Hirofumi Tosaki ..................................................................................................................... 34 From Unilateral to Multilateral Bill Kidd and John Ainslie ..................................................................................................................................... 40 Nuclear Deterrence, NATO and the Role of Parliamentarians Uta Zapf ................................................................................................................................................................ 44 Nuclear Deterrence and Changing the Framework of the Debate: Obtaining National Self Interests by Advancing Global Public Goods Jonathan Granoff .................................................................................................................................................... 46 Nuclear Deterrence and a Trans-generational Approach Rob van Riet .......................................................................................................................................................... 52 Nuclear Deterrence: A Dialogue Between Richard Falk and David Krieger ............................................ 58 Dinosaur, Dragon or Durable Defence: Deterrence in the 21st Century: A Summary of Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence Alyn Ware and Teresa Bergman............................................................................................................................. 63 Appendices A. Santa Barbara Declaration, “Reject Nuclear Deterrence: An Urgent Call to Action” ....................... 73 B. NATO Deterrence and Defence Posture Review .................................................................................... 75 C. Creating the Conditions and Building the Framework for a Nuclear Weapons-Free World, Executive Summary, Middle Powers Initiative Briefing Paper for the Berlin Framework Forum .............................. 81 i I Nuclear Abolition Forum · Issue No. 2 About the Nuclear Abolition Forum The Nuclear Abolition Forum: Dialogue on the Process to Achieve and Sustain a Nuclear Weapons Free World, was launched in 2011 to facilitate and promote discussion on key issues related to the achievement and maintenance of a world free of nuclear weapons. Founded by Alyn Ware, the Forum is a joint project of eight leading organiza- tions in the disarmament field* and is able to rely on about seventy high-level consultants to ensure quality contri- butions. The vision for a nuclear weapons free world has recently been advanced by leaders and high-level officials (current and former) of key states including those possessing nuclear weapons or covered by nuclear deterrence doctrines. The goal has been supported by legislators, academics, disarmament experts and other sectors of civil society. The path to achieving such a world however is still unclear. States Parties to the 2010 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT Review Conference) agreed that “All States need to make special efforts to establish the necessary framework to achieve and maintain a world without nuclear weapons,” and noted in this context “the Five-Point Proposal for Nuclear Disarmament of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, which proposes inter alia the consideration of negotiations on a nuclear weapons convention or a framework of separate mutu- ally reinforcing instruments backed by a strong system of verification.” As such, States have collectively recognized that a focus solely on the next non-proliferation and disarmament steps is no longer sufficient or able to succeed. A comprehensive approach to nuclear disarmament must be de- veloped alongside and complementary to the step-by-step process. There are of course many challenges that need to be overcome and questions still to be addressed in order for governments to undertake the abolition and elimination of nuclear weapons. This independent forum aims to as- sist this process by exploring the legal, technical, institutional and political elements for achieving a nuclear weap- ons free world. To this end, the Forum offers a dedicated website – www.abolitionforum.org – and a periodical to facilitate dia- logue between academics, governments, disarmament experts and NGOs on key issues regarding the prohibition and elimination of nuclear weapons under a Nuclear Weapons Convention or package of agreements, as well as the process to achieving this. Noteworthy, the Forum seeks to include a variety of perspectives rather than advo- cating any particular approach to achieving a world free of nuclear weapons. This could include analysis and pro- posals from those who consider the time is right for a comprehensive approach, alongside contributions from those who do not yet believe that nuclear abolition is possible, or who are not yet convinced of the merits of a comprehensive approach, or who believe that there are pre-conditions to be met before undertaking a compre- hensive approach. The Nuclear Abolition Forum provides an extensive database of documents dealing with these elements, filed on the website under a variety of category headings. The website also offers users a variety of interactive features, in- cluding the possibility to post articles and comment and initiate and partake in discussions. You are invited to join the debate. Each issue of the periodical will take on one of these elements, such as international humanitarian law, nuclear deterrence, verification, enforcement, political will, nuclear energy and related dual-use issues, individual and criminal responsibility, phases of implementation, the role of civil society, and national legislative measures to fur- ther nuclear abolition, to name
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