2015 Year in Review 2016 Election Preview

2015 Year in Review In 2015, 71 Saltchuk employees contributed $85,382.64 to Saltchuk PAC, which allowed us to contribute $56,500.00 to 25 Members of Congress. 17 PAC participants attended fundraisers to deliver contributions.

Over the course of the year, we welcomed 16 Members of Congress and Congressional staffers to tour our operations. In November, Saltchuk PAC hosted a Q&A conference call featuring Senator Lisa Murkowski, the chair of the Senate’s Energy & Natural Resources Committee and one of our strongest allies.

As 2016 gets rolling, we will continue to support candidates who are champions of Saltchuk’s key legislative and regulatory priorities. Below is a summary of the Senate races where our allies are running for reelection. Saltchuk PAC will contribute to these candidates with the funds you provide. Thanks for your continued support!

2016 Election Preview - Senate

Washington

Senator Patty Murray (D) is seeking her fifth term in office in 2016.

Her only declared Republican opponent is Chris Vance, a former State Assemblyman and chair of the Washington Republican Party. Vance has not raised enough money to be considered a serious challenger so another opponent may enter the race.

Murray has won with over 50% of the vote in every prior Senate election.

Rating: Safe Democrat

Alaska

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) is expected to be reelected to her third term this year.

While the possibility of a Republican challenger has been floated, she has survived tougher challenges in the past, such as her write-in campaign in 2010. Democrats hope for a primary challenger in an attempt to deplete some of Murkowski’s campaign war chest. Even if former Senator Mark Begich became the Democratic candidate, the possibility of unseating Murkowski remains unlikely.

Rating: Likely Republican

Hawaii

Senator Brian Schatz (D) is running for his first full term in the Senate. Schatz was first appointed to the Senate in 2012 following the death of Senator Daniel Inouye. In 2014, he won the special election to finish the remainder of Inouye’s term.

Schatz is not expected to face a primary in his bid for reelection. His only announced opponent from the Republican Party is Charles Collins, who received 1.3% of the vote in the Republican primary for Governor in 2014.

Rating: Safe Democrat Retiring Senator (R) has left a large void in Florida’s political scene where candidates from across the political spectrum are running to replace him.

On the Democratic side, Rep. and Rep. Patrick Murphy are the two most legitimate candidates. Grayson represents the more liberal wing of the party, while Murphy is more moderate. Murphy has raised a considerable amount of money, but Grayson could add his own personal finances to make this race more competitive.

The top tier of Republican candidates includes Rep. Ron DeSantis, Rep. David Jolly, and Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera. DeSantis represents the more conservative wing of the party and is the best funded to date. Jolly and Lopez- Cantera are more moderate candidates. Jolly recently vowed not to ask for campaign money this election (yes, you read that correctly).

Rubio won this race in 2010 with a divided opposition among Democrat and then-Independent, . With no major third party candidate this cycle, the results will be very different. Rating: Toss Up

2016 State of Play With 34 seats up for election in the Senate, 2016 is gearing up to be an interesting cycle. Republicans currently hold the majority with 54 seats, but with 3 retirements and 21 seats up for re-election, it remains to be seen if they will retain their control over the chamber. Democrats, who typically tend to see higher voter turnout levels in presidential election years, also have 3 retiring Senators among their ranks. In order to regain control of the Senate, Dems need to win at least 5 of their 7 seats in key battleground states.

On the House side, all of the 435 seats are up for election in 2016. With 13 retirements and 5 representatives seeking higher office, it is likely that Republicans will be able to maintain their majority of 246 members. The Democratic conference has 6 retirements and 8 representatives running for higher office, but it is unlikely they will win the 30 seats necessary to recapture a majority in the House, even with presidential election voter turn out levels.

Given the fractured state of the Republican Party, turnout will directly correlate to the candidate’s ideological views. If a nontraditional candidate is chosen to be the GOP nominee, many battleground Senate seats will likely be in jeopardy for Republican incumbents. As a result, this election provides a more favorable landscape for Democrats than previous election cycles. Senate House of Representatives

Questions about Saltchuk PAC? Contact Chris Coakley, V.P. of Government Affairs Election Maps: Cook Political Report 2016 202-650-6910 | [email protected]