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Predicting the Viability of Fish Populations in a Modified Riverine Environment

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Predicting the Viability of Fish Populations in a Modified Riverine Environment University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 8-2000 Predicting the Viability of Fish Populations in a Modified Riverine Environment Henriette I. Jager Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Part of the Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons Recommended Citation Jager, Henriette I., "Predicting the Viability of Fish Populations in a Modified Riverine Environment. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2000. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/2029 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Henriette I. Jager entitled "Predicting the Viability of Fish Populations in a Modified Riverine Environment." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. James A. Drake, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Kenneth A. Rose, Richard J. Strange, Louis J. Gross Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) We are submitting herewith a dissertation written by Henriette I. Jager entitled “Predicting the Viability of Fish Populations in a Modified Riverine Environment.” We have examined the final copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. James A. Drake ________________________________ James A. Drake, Major Professor Thomas G. Hallam ________________________________ Thomas G. Hallam, Department Head We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Kenneth A. Rose _______________________________ Kenneth A. Rose Richard J. Strange _______________________________ Richard J. Strange Louis J. Gross _______________________________ Louis J. Gross Accepted for the Council: Dr. Anne Mayhew _______________________________ Associate Vice Chancellor and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file in the Graduate Admissions and Records Office) PREDICTING THE VIABILITY OF FISH POPULATIONS IN A MODIFIED RIVERINE ENVIRONMENT A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Henriette I. Jager August, 2000 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am indebted to my advisor Kenny Rose for his help and advice throughout this process. Also, to the other members of my committee, Jim Drake, Richard Strange, and Lou Gross, for their support and encouragement. I thank my husband, Craig Brandt, and my daughter Erika, for supporting my decision to pursue this degree. This degree would not have been possible without the Educational Assistance program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the support of my supervisors and colleagues in the Environmental Sciences Division. ii ABSTRACT Riverine fishes evolved to life in a highly variable, flow-driven environment. During the two past centuries, large rivers have been substantially altered by human activities. This has resulted in declines of fish populations that depend on the large river environment. The research described here uses models to evaluate the effects of human activities on the viability of fish populations in rivers. I focused on five modifications of the river environment associated with impoundment: (1) seasonal allocation of river flow; (2) diversion of river flow; (3) fragmentation of the river habitat by dams; (4) conversion of free-flowing river to reservoir habitat; and (5) alteration of migration patterns. To understand the role of flow regulation on chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) recruitment, I developed an individual-based model to predict recruitment as a function of seasonal flow patterns in the Tuolumne River, California. I used simulated annealing to find flow patterns that maximize chinook recruitment under wet and dry hydrologic conditions. As water availability increased, I found that the optimal flow pattern shifted from allocating low flows uniformly across seasons to a pattern with high spring flows. When I considered a new objective: maximizing the variance of spawning times among recruits, the optimal flow regime called for a winter pulse in flow just before the peak spawning date for the minority (late-fall) run. To evaluate the recovery options for chinook salmon in the Tuolumne River, I developed an age-based model to conduct a population viability analysis (PVA). I iii developed a flow-dependent spawner-recruitment relationship from the recruitment model. Its shape depended on the flow regime, suggesting that such relationships are not fixed properties of species, but depend on environmental conditions. The PVA model suggested that recovery, in the absence of straying, would be enhanced most by significantly reducing ocean harvest, followed by reduced diversion of water from the river. For white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) populations in the Snake River, Idaho a main concern is habitat fragmentation by dams resulting in smaller, isolated populations. Simulation experiments to evaluate the effects of fragmentation suggested that population viability was higher when dams were spaced widely enough apart to retain free-flowing habitat. A simulation experiment to evaluate the effects of altered migration patterns associated with impoundment showed that both the likelihood of persistence and the genetic diversity among white sturgeon populations were enhanced by balanced upstream and downstream migration rates. Models that simulate the responses of fish populations to modified river habitat do not consider the potential for an evolutionary response. I designed a PVA model simulating the genetic basis of age at maturity for individual fish. Simulated individual variation in this trait lead to increased population viability only when the variation was heritable and subjected to an altered selective regime. The results support the idea that predicting population viability depends on estimating the potential for evolution in fitness-related traits for populations exposed to anthropogenic changes in the environment that impose strong, directional selective forces. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE PART 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 2 OVERVIEW OF PARTS.................................................................................................................. 3 PART 2. MODELLING THE LINKAGES BETWEEN FLOW MANAGEMENT AND SALMON RECRUITMENT IN RIVERS .................................................................................................. 10 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................11 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 12 MODEL STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................. 13 Spatial and temporal scale.................................................................................................. 19 Physical input data: river flow and temperature ................................................................ 19 Habitat capacity.................................................................................................................. 22 Adult escapement ................................................................................................................22 Spawning............................................................................................................................. 24 Egg and alevin development ............................................................................................... 25 Egg and alevin mortality..................................................................................................... 26 Juvenile development and growth....................................................................................... 30 Juvenile movement .............................................................................................................. 33 Juvenile survival ................................................................................................................. 35 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................ 38 Methods for sensitivity analysis .......................................................................................... 39 Results and discussion of the sensitivity analysis................................................................ 41 ITERATIVE MODEL IMPROVEMENT ..........................................................................................
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