Space Tourism Industry Emergence: Description and Data

Home , Beth Moses, Blue Origin, Brian Binnie, Burt Rutan, Copenhagen Suborbitals, Mike Melvill

Ken Davidian1–3 Keywords: innovation research, industry emergence, space tourism, suborbital spaceflight, infrastructure elements 1FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation, Washington, DC, USA. 2Editor-in-Chief, New Space Journal, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., New Rochelle, NY, USA. INTRODUCTION 3Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, his report describes the emergence of the space VA, USA. tourism industry (or human suborbital spaceflight population [HSSFP]),* within models of the inno- T vation process and required industry resources. ABSTRACT The HSSFP is rooted in high-speed, rocket-powered, mili- This report has 2 goals. The first is to narrate the origins of the tary aviation research, and its emergence was stimulated space tourism industry using 2 models of industry evolution. The by the Ansari X PRIZE competition. This research identified first model, representing the complex and turbulent nature of HSSFP emergence events using a data collection method- the innovation process, sequences observed events into a nar- ology described in the Minnesota Innovation Research rative of industry emergence. The second model, listing the in- Program.1–3 dustry resources required for successful emergence, referred to The space tourism industry can be described as a techno-

as industry infrastructure elements (IIEs), helps identify the logical niche proto-market,4 in the intermediate stages of relevant industry events from a larger number of component the innovation process, before the appearance of a dominant incidents. This research collected more than 8,400 pieces of design. To describe the space tourism emergence story, this secondary and archival data from traditional and news aggre- report employs the ‘‘fireworks’’ innovation process model.5 gator websites, distilled them into *400 significant events, This model reflects the complexity and uncontrollability of and categorized them within the 3 main components of IIEs: the innovation process in 3 periods and 12 phases (Fig. 1). Institutional Arrangements, Resource Endowments, and Pro- The first Initiation period includes phases of Extended Ge- prietary Functions. Primary data, collected via 40 interviews of station, Shock Trigger, and Submission of Initial Plans industry members, complemented the secondary data. Organiz- (entry of new firms). Next, the Developmental period is the ing the events within these models results in a rich description most complex, including phases of Proliferation (of the of the space tourism industry emergence phenomenon. The second goal of this report is to contribute to industry emergence research conducted by others. The data collection methodology in this research followed that of the Minnesota Innovation Research Project, which allows for the collectivi- *The phrase ‘‘space tourism industry’’ is commonly used by practitioners. More accurately, ‘‘space tourism’’ is an industry segment of the ‘‘launch vehicle’’ in- zation, and sharing, of data sets among multiple innovation dustry. Because the terms ‘‘industry’’ and ‘‘industry segment’’ could be interpreted researchers, based on a common definition of the innovation as including commercial actors only, academic researchers employ the respective process. Therefore, in support of the goal of collectivist data terms of ‘‘community’’ and ‘‘population,’’ encompassing both commercial and collection, the Supplementary Appendix of this report contains noncommercial actors. Therefore, from the academic perspective of organizational the full data set of space tourism industry emergence events evolution, the ‘‘launch vehicle industry’’ is categorized as a ‘‘community’’ and the (including citations), for use by like-minded industry emergence ‘‘space tourism industry’’ is more accurately labeled the ‘‘human suborbital space researchers. flight population.’’

ª Ken Davidian 2020; Published by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. This Open Access article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are cited.

DOI: 10.1089/space.2019.0040 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. VOL. 8 NO. 2 2020 NEW SPACE 87 DAVIDIAN

Global (with XP).{ This analysis does not include firms who designed and operated suborbital vehicles (including sounding rockets) to trans- port scientific payloads, but not humans. One firm that built initial hardware but not included in this study, Copenhagen Suborbitals, started in 2008 with the goal of flying a single human on a suborbital trajectory in a rocket-powered vehicle, but their long-term public plans do not include commercial operation. Finally, in October 2017, Elon Musk of SpaceX announced human suborbital transportation (flying to a different point on Earth) as a possible business spin-off from his orbital and deep space plans.6 As of Fig. 1. The innovation process model. Reprinted from Van de Ven et al.5(p. 25) December 2019, 2 of the 5 HSSFP firms were in operation, but neither had begun revenue- original concepts) Into Multiple Ideas, Setbacks and Mistakes, generating flights. Because no paying customer has flown in Shifting Goals and Criteria (of success), Changing of an HSSFP vehicle to date, the industry is in a pre-production Involved Personnel, Involvement of Top Managers and stage of emergence. Investors, (development of) Interorganizational Relation- This report begins with a brief description of data collection ships, and Infrastructure Development. Only after these 10 and analysis, followed by a recounting of the HSSFP emer- earlier phases have been executed to some extent does the gence story, grouping the relevant events into their respective process enter the final period of Implementation, encom- phases of the innovation process model. The report ends with

passing phases of Innovation Adoption, and Implementation a brief conclusion section. The fully cited HSSFP event listing or Resource Cessation. is provided in the report Supplementary Appendix for use by The U.S. government (i.e., the Air Force and the National other researchers (with the presumption of appropriate attri- Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA]) conducted bution). To minimize repetition between the list of references supporting research for the HSSFP in the 1950s through in the main report and the Supplementary Appendix, state- the 1970s. Between the years 1996 and 2004, the private ments of events given in this report, that would normally be Ansari X PRIZE competition stimulated many individuals cited, are not. and companies around the world to develop, and invest in, commercially viable vehicles to safely fly ordinary humans to the ‘‘edge’’ of space and back. New firms proposed many DATA vehicle designs, some as traditional rockets, and others as This section describes the collection and analysis of winged vehicles. Some vehicle designs launch from the data. This research collected individual HSSFP incidents (the ground, some from sea, while others were designed to be units of analysis) and combined them into relevant events dropped from an aircraft, or high-altitude balloon, in flight. through a 2-stage categorization process. A chart showing The entire mission, from the time the rocket fires until the the chronological sequence of HSSFP emergence events was safe return to Earth, typically lasts less than 30 min. The X created based on a framework of required industry emergence PRIZE purse was ultimately won by Scaled Composites in resources. October 2004. This current research focuses on vehicles designed to carry people to a minimum altitude of 100 km and return to the {For the remainder of this report, all HSSFP companies will be referred to by the same location on Earth. The firms included in this study all first word of their full names (i.e., Scaled, Virgin, Blue, XCOR, and Rocketplane). reached, or surpassed, the milestone of initial fabrication of a Although the XCOR Lynx Mark I was not designed to fly to 100 km, it was a full-scale vehicle as of December 2017. These include Scaled precursor to the Lynx Mark II that was. This study includes the Lynx Mark I Composites (with their vehicle, SpaceShipOne), Virgin Ga- because of the significant role it played in HSSFP development. Also, although lactic (with SpaceShipTwo), Blue Origin (with New Shepard Rocketplane technically never began full-scale manufacturing of their XP vehicle, [NS]), XCOR Aerospace (with Lynx Mark I), and Rocketplane they are included for similar reasons.

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Data Collection ‘‘motivating and coordinating people to develop and implement This research initially collected data from industry blogs, new ideas by engaging in transactions (or relationships) with others including individual incidents dated between April 1999 and and making the adaptations needed to achieve desired outcomes within changing institutional and organizational contexts.’’3(p. 9) December 2016.7 From the *28,000 incident entries generated from many different types of data sources and outlets, a Incidents were grouped into event categories of type and life search using HSSFP keywords{ reduced the list to *8,400 cycle stage. Event categories included: (1) meetings, expositions, HSSFP incidents. Industry blogs provide access to data. A and conferences, (2) launches, (3) hardware testing, (4) raffles or secondary aggregator site was queried, and it identified sim- other types of games of skill or chance, (5) individual speaking ilar industry incidents, providing links to the same, or similar, engagements or interviews, (6) organizations or government sources as the principle site. The benefit gained from the agencies, (7) government programs, and (8) bills, legislation, or secondary site was marginal (i.e., very little new informa- laws (at federal, state, and local levels). Event life cycle stages tion was found). In addition to the aggregator sites, other included: (1) start, entry, or introduction, (2) a retrospective, sources of information included company web page archives, profiles, plans, information, activities, partnerships, reactions, or other web logs, and traditional media research databases. forecasts, (3) milestones, (4) conclusion, exit, or passage, and LexisNexis was used particularly for incidents and events (5) retrospective or future plans. Of the 8,400 HSSFP incidents, before April 1999 and after December 2016. In total, these the categorization process identified *400 events. sites identified incidents from press releases, publicly avail- The event data were then grouped within a framework of 9 able government documents, conference presentations, news industry infrastructure elements (IIEs). The IIE framework media reports, editorials, and commentaries. Data collection identifies resources required for successful industry emer- for this research ended with events in late 2017. gence, including first-level categories of Institutional This research also collected primary data through 40 semi- Arrangements, Resource Endowments, and Proprietary 10 structured personal interviews with HTTSP members, repre- Functions. Beneath these 3 top-level elements are second- senting private firms, trade organizations, U.S. government and third-order subelements, as shown in Table 1. The identification and use of multiple data sources maxi- executive branch agencies (including the U.S. space transportation regulator [the Federal Aviation Administration, mized data robustness. Data triangulation, a coherent audit FAA], NASA, the Office of Management and Budget, and trail, a thorough description of industry emergence incidents the Office of Science and Technology Policy), the U.S. legis- and events, and collaborating interviews, maximized the re- lative branch, industry consultants, conference organizers, liability and overall validity of the data. A recognized data and supply chain members. collection limitation was the reliance on secondary data, di- minishing the data confirmability and credibility. Data Analysis Data analysis involved creating an industry emergence chart Next, individual incidents were grouped, identifying (Fig. 2) by chronologically ordering each event within the important contributing HSSFP events. Events were defined as framework of IIE and identifying interdependencies between ‘‘an incident when change occurred,’’ following a data col- them.8 The chart spans 7 decades, starting with events dating lection methodology described by Van de Ven.8(p. 33) Changes back to the early 1950s, allowing an opportunity for in-depth were based on 5 major concepts of the innovation process description and analysis. The majority of HSSFP events fit definition (italics added for emphasis in the following quote): comfortably into the IIE framework. The chart traces a storyline that describes how individual firms entered the industry, sought and acquired financing, interacted with regulatory agencies, conducted vehicle design, assembly, testing, and operations, {The keyword search terms included general descriptors of the industry (e.g., and, in some cases, exited the industry. It also shows specific ‘‘suborbital,’’ ‘‘spaceport,’’ ‘‘spaceship,’’ or ‘‘prize’’), roots of the space tourism firm relationships and interactions between supporting facilities names (e.g., ‘‘XCOR,’’ ‘‘Virgin,’’ or ‘‘Blue’’), and roots of the spaceport names or (such as spaceports) and firm activities, and activities that acronyms (‘‘Mojave,’’ ‘‘OSIDA,’’ or ‘‘NMSA’’). The complete list of search terms support the creation of knowledge and market resources. related to spaceports alone includes: ‘‘spaceport,’’ ‘‘Brownsville,’’ ‘‘Oklahoma Spaceport,’’ ‘‘OSIDA,’’ ‘‘Texas Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Mojave,’’ ‘‘NM spaceport,’’ ‘‘NMSA,’’ ‘‘Wallops,’’ ‘‘Spaceport America,’’ ‘‘California Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Cape Canaveral Space- SPACE TOURISM INDUSTRY EMERGENCE port,’’ ‘‘Cecil Field,’’ ‘‘Colorado Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Florida Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Front Range,’’ This section recounts the events corresponding to the 3 ‘‘Kodiak,’’ ‘‘Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Poker Flat,’’ ‘‘Sheboygan Spaceport,’’ innovation process periods and 12 phases of the fireworks and ‘‘Spaceport Florida,’’ and ‘‘West Texas Spaceport.’’ model (Fig. 1).

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Table 1. Industry Infrastructure Element (IEE) Framework Taxonomy17 technology transfer, export control, and environmental protection. First-Order IIEs Second-Order Elements Third-Order Elements Gestation events that developed re- Institutional Legitimation Guarantees Endorsements sources of scientific knowledge also oc- arrangements Licensing practices Industry regulations curred, including government research and development (R&D) results. Tech- Governance Norms and rules Regulations nology development programs supported Laws later HSSFP emergence, listed in Table 2, Technology standards Government regulatory mandates including suborbital flights conducted by the military (the U.S. Air Force or the Cooperative/voluntary ind. standards Defense Advanced Research Projects Market-driven/de facto standards Agency [DARPA]) and/or NASA, as part of a government research program.x Ex- Resource Scientific and technological perimental suborbital vehicles, dating endowments research back to the mid-1950s, were included if Financing and insurance Public institutions Private organizations they met the current regulatory defini- arrangements (venture capital) tion of ‘‘suborbital rocket’’ and ‘‘subor- ** Human competence pool Educational training Recruitment and training bital trajectory.’’ The best known vehicle programs in this category was the X-15. The Mer- Sharing of knowledge cury capsule, atop an Atlas rocket, at- Proprietary Technological development Applied research Manufacturing tained the highest altitude of all the functions functions and development Testing government research vehicles carrying humans on a suborbital trajectory, on the Innovation network and Appropriation of common Vendor–supplier–distributor {{

first 2 flights of the overall program. resource channel activities goods channels Subsequent to the end of these research Market creation and Marketing Consumer demand programs (which ended in the mid- consumer demand 1970s), DARPA conducted the Delta Cultural norms Clipper program to advance technologies important to the space tourism industry. Human capital resource events Initiation Period (Table 3) also prepared institutional and The innovation process Initiation period includes phases of industry actors for the emergence of the HSSFP (and the space Extended Gestation, a Shock Trigger, and the Submission of industry in general) during the Gestation phase. In addition {{ Initial Plans. HSSFP events that occurred within these phases to university-level aerospace engineering programs, new are described below. Gestation events include the creation of multidisciplinary programs were created (the International institutional resources, scientific knowledge, and human capital. Although the Ansari X PRIZE was a triggering event for space tourism as a whole, the creation, announcement, and xMuch of these data were generously provided by former XCOR employee, activity of space tourism companies were primarily estab- Mr. Randall Clague. ** lished before the winning of the competition. The mission profiles of these flights fit the regulatory definitions of a suborbital rocket and trajectory, namely ‘‘(19) . ‘suborbital rocket’ means a vehicle, rocket- propelled in whole or in part, intended for flight on a suborbital trajectory, and the Extended gestation phase. Institutional gestation events, in- thrust of which is greater than its lift for the majority of the rocket-powered cluding treaties and regulations, were enacted that support portion of its ascent. (20) ‘suborbital trajectory’ means the intentional flight path many space industry segments, including the HSSFP. For of a launch vehicle, reentry vehicle, or any portion thereof, whose vacuum in- example, the Outer Space Treaty established national over- stantaneous impact point does not leave the surface of the Earth.’’18 sight responsibilities for any country’s space activities, pro- {{The remaining Mercury flights were orbital, not suborbital. viding the legal basis for national-level regulation of all space {{The term ‘‘aerospace’’ was not uniquely, or even commonly used. Programs were activities, including the U.S. commercial space transportation more likely to refer to the discipline using some combination of the terms regulations. Other U.S. laws led to regulations regarding ‘‘aeronautical’’ and/or ‘‘astronautical.’’

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E PC 91 SPACE NEW Fig. 2. HSSFP emergence chart. HSSFP, Human Suborbital Spaceflight Population. DAVIDIAN

Table 2. Government Research 10 million U.S. dollar purse to the first nongovernmental or- 1955–1956: U.S. Air Force’s X-2 vehicle performs 13 test flights ganization to fly a single vehicle, capable of carrying 3 adults, to an altitude of 100 km, twice in a 2-week period. The contest 1957-09-27: Fatal accident during an X-2 test flight was announced in 1996 by the X PRIZE Foundation, and at its 1959–1969: U.S. Air Force’s X-15 vehicle performs 340 test flights peak, there were 23 registered teams. Of the total field, approximately one-quarter built and/or tested hardware, and 1961-05-05: First suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury only 1 team ended up conducting competition flights. The 1961-07-21: Second suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury purse was secured in 2001 (through the procurement of a 1967-11-15: Fatal accident during an X-15 test flight ‘‘hole in one’’ insurance policy), encouraging the owner of Scaled, and the designer of SpaceShipOne, Burt Rutan, to 1968–1970: U.S. Air Force’s HL-10 vehicle performs 37 test flights begin pursuing the prize in earnest. SpaceShipOne won the 1970–1971: U.S. Air Force’s X-24A vehicle performs 28 test flights competition in October 2004. Figure 3 shows the number of industry emergence events 1970–1972: U.S. Air Force’s M2-F3 vehicle performs 43 test flights increased significantly since 1996. The number of conference 1973–1975: U.S. Air Force’s X-24B vehicle performs 36 test flights publications and journal articles also experienced a marked 1990–1996: Delta Clipper Program increase after the announcement, purse funding, and winning of the X PRIZE. A 2-sample t-test (assuming unequal vari- ances), for the average number of events per year from 1955 to 1995 compared with from 1996 to 2016,xx supports the hy- pothesis that the increase in the average number of annual Space University Space Studies and Master of Space Studies HSSFP emergence events was statistically significant. As programs, and the University of North Dakota Space Studies shown in Figure 4, the number of HSSFP-related publications program), as were conferences emphasizing student involve- also shows a statistically significant increase following the X ***

ment, the sharing of amateur rocketry experiences, and pro- PRIZE announcement in 1996. Therefore, these findings motion of the commercial (nongovernmental) uses of space. support the assertion that the X PRIZE competition, from initial announcement through the final award, was the shock Shock trigger phase. The Shock Trigger phase is next in the trigger for the current set of observed HSSFP emergence Initiation period, during which an exogenous event, some- events. times referred to as a ‘‘punctuation,’’11–13 stimulates industry emergence events. For the HSSFP, the Ansari X PRIZE com- Submission of initial plans. Building upon the foundational petition was that shock event. The Ansari X PRIZE offered a institutional arrangements, government research, and development of human capital, firms began executing their space tourism plans in earnest subsequent to the Ansari X PRIZE announcement, signaling the end of the first period of the Table 3. Educational Programs and Conferences innovation process. 1982-05–Present: National Space Society International Space Development Initial planning and establishment of the first HSSFP firms Conference held began in the late 1990s and early 2000s. When Scaled won the 1982–Present: Annual Students for the Exploration and Development of Space X PRIZE in 2004, 4 companies had already been created and conference held through 1997. The annual conference resumed, under the announced. Scaled was the first of these companies, originally name of SpaceVision in 2004 founded as an aircraft design firm in 1982, and it ‘‘diversified’’ into suborbital spacecraft design in 2001. Founded in *1995, 1987-04–Present: International Space University conducts Summer Session Rocketplane was also a registered X PRIZE team and began Program

1987–Present: University of North Dakota conducts Space Studies program xxThe computed P-value was 7.6E-6. 1991–2005: Space Frontier Foundation Space Frontier Conferences held ***Three publication groups were identified using the keyword search terms ‘‘suborbital AND tourism,’’ including Google scholar search, articles presented at 1995–Present: International Space University conducts Master of Space Studies the International Astronautical Congress, and articles presented at the AIAA program ‘‘Space’’ conference. The P-values for all 3 were 2.0E-6, 1.8E-4, and 6.8E-4, respectively.

92 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. Fig. 3. Chronology of HSSFP events.

Fig. 4. Bibliometric results of ‘‘space AND tourism’’ keyword search.

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hardware manufacturing in the early 2000s. Although Richard pany (Virgin Orbit) to develop a launch vehicle system to Branson licensed the name ‘‘Virgin Galactic Airways’’ in 1999, deliver low-mass payloads to orbit, directly drawing upon it was not until 2004 that the brand was publicly announced at their experience in the design of their HSSFP vehicle and a ceremony immediately following the second X PRIZE flight propulsion systems. Finally, Blue pursued multiple parallel of SpaceShipOne. XCOR and Blue began operations in 1999 activities, participating in the NASA Commercial Crew and 2000 (respectively) and pursued vehicle development for Development program to develop a crewed orbital capsule, the space tourism industry without participating in the X partnering with Boeing on the XS-1 program, and developing PRIZE competition. an orbital vehicle, called New Glenn. Although each of the The next period of the innovation process describes a com- space tourism companies took detours, or branched out, from plex series of activities that advance the suborbital transpor- the original human suborbital goals, they assumed these tation industry emergence narrative. activities voluntarily. Therefore, these are not considered industry emergence setbacks. Developmental Period During the Developmental period, industry actors identify Setbacks and mistakes. Setbacks and mistakes occurred during and voluntarily pursue alternative applications for their in- the proliferation phase of HSSFP firms’ activities. Some set- novations. Challenges and setbacks, or involuntary changes of backs caused companies to exit the industry, whereas others company activities, also arise. These can have a ripple effect, had less severe repercussions. leading to a reevaluation of company goals and success cri- Blue experienced multiple setbacks during the flight test teria, changes of technical staff and managers, new organi- phase of their vehicle development activities. On 2 occasions, zational partnerships, and multiple program reviews. During flight testing resulted in the entire loss of the vehicle. Neither this period, industry actors decide whether, how, and with case involved a fatality (no people were onboard). Both Scaled whom to partner, to accumulate industry infrastructure re- and Virgin experienced some minor technical setbacks during sources required for commercial success. their flight test programs, but the companies also experienced significant setbacks resulting in 4 fatalities and a schedule

Proliferation into multiple ideas. As innovations develop, orig- delay of 22 months. inal objectives and applications may not materialize as XCOR lacked the financial resources of Blue and Virgin, so planned, and new ones become evident, sometimes in very firm survival required exploiting the company’s core com- different industry segments. The 5 space tourism companies petency of liquid engine system development. XCOR divided included in this study pursued vehicle development and its technical team between activities of retail sales and de- operations to different degrees. Rocketplane and XCOR velopment of their vehicle and engines. advanced to the stage of vehicle manufacture, but did not ‘‘I never wanted to be in the consumer sales business, and ultimately, begin operational testing of the entire vehicle system. The getting in the consumer sales business probably is what ultimately remaining 3 companies all began flight test programs of killed the company. I didn’t want to get into that business because I their vehicle systems. Two companies (Scaled and Virgin) thought, ‘That’s an incredibly different business.’’’—HSSFP Executive conducted flight tests with humans onboard. Rocketplane was of similar size as XCOR and also had All 5 companies encountered opportunities to pursue al- limited resources. After 4 years of vehicle development ac- ternative activities in spaceflight. Rocketplane halted its tivities, Rocketplane diverted all their resources to work on an suborbital vehicle development activities after its selection to orbital vehicle under the NASA COTS program. In 2007, when participate in the NASA Commercial Orbital Transportation Rocketplane failed to meet a required financial milestone, System (COTS) program. XCOR teamed with another company NASA removed Rocketplane from the program. The effects (Masten Space Systems) to compete for the DARPA XS-1 were catastrophic and forced the company into ‘‘hibernation program{{{ and later dedicated a portion of its workforce to mode’’: develop a propulsion system for the U.S. Air Force. Like XCOR, Virgin participated in the XS-1 program (teaming with ‘‘We were moving along, we would have been in flight test and Northrop-Grumman) and also started an entirely new com- probably in operation by 2008 or 2009 if it hadn’t been for COTS, and we hadn’t been distracted and ultimately bled out.’’—HSSFP Executive

{{{The goal of the DARPA XS-1 program initial phases (A and B) was the design of Shifting goals and criteria. Financial considerations caused the an autonomous suborbital vehicle that could be flown 10 times in 10 days to an smaller space tourism firms to modify their business goals altitude of 200 km, to put a 1,360 kg satellite in orbit, or service existing satellites.19 and technical criteria of success. Rocketplane’s vehicle design

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evolved from a modified Lear Jet to a larger vehicle, doubling industry observers, although the impact of these changes the vehicle cost, and putting a financial strain on the firm. It within the company is estimated to be limited because no was at this time the COTS program opportunity emerged, so major strategic or operational changes were observed. The Rocketplane decided to pursue that new objective. XCOR organizational structures of the 2 smaller firms, Rocketplane moved their R&D activities from Mojave, CA (where they and XCOR, were much flatter, resulting in a greater impact of perceived the cost of doing business as too high), to Midland, personnel changes within these companies. XCOR experi- TX, in search of ‘‘the best business conditions.’’ enced a significant change of the company ownership, which may have led to the release, 6 months later, of the employees Change of involved personnel. In addition to shifting goals and working on vehicle development. success criteria, personnel also came and went from the space tourism projects. The 4 firms that entered the market after the Involvement of top managers and investors. All 5 space tourism X PRIZE (i.e., all except Scaled) experienced changes of per- firms benefited from the involvement of top managers and sonnel working for the companies. The monotonically in- investors, but the benefits were especially significant for Blue creasing number of Blue employees reflects the overall and Virgin. Jeff Bezos committed to annually sell $1 billion of company growth, due to its diversification into the orbital Amazon stock14 to subsidize all Blue operations (suborbital sector, and cannot be attributed solely to their suborbital ac- and orbital). In 2004, Virgin was funded by their parent tivity. For the smaller companies (Rocketplane and XCOR), the company (the Virgin Group) and then by sovereign investors employment numbers rise and then fall to zero. Although the (United Arab Emirates [UAE] then Aabar Investments, later data are a bit sparse, Table 4 provides employment levels for Mubadala Investments), in 2009 and 2011, at funding levels in all the space tourism industry firms. the hundreds of millions of dollars. Paul Allen provided *$30 Insights into personnel changes at Blue, Scaled, and Virgin million of funding for Burt Rutan to compete in the X PRIZE are limited to publicly available sources. Typically, changes at competition. XCOR had individual (angel) and other private the highest organizational levels were deemed noteworthy by investors from the United States and Denmark, providing on the order of tens of millions of dollars,

that later changed the company’s direc- Table 4. Human Suborbital Spaceflight Population Firms’ Employment Histories tion. George French invested $10 million Blue Scaled Virgin into Rocketplane to enable passage of an Year Origin Rocketplane Composites Galactic XCOR Oklahoma tax credit law, resulting in a 2003 0 $12 million cash return. 2004 60–70 *125 Interorganizational relationships. All5com- 2005 17 panies had strong interorganizational 2006 30 relationships with state and federal gov- 2007 0 *250 ernment agencies, including many of the NASA research and spaceflight centers, 2008 30–35 and U.S. military organizations. Blue 2011 25–30 executed multiple space act agreements (SAA) with NASA centers. Rocketplane 2012 170 50 established a relationship with the Okla- 2014 350 *400 80 homa state government, leading to the 2015 400 500+ 110 passage of a tax credit law which Rock- etplane converted into $12M of liquid 2016 800 700 50–60 funds. Because it would have violated the 2017 1,024 0 rules of the X PRIZE competition, Scaled

2018 1,400 had minimal (if any) relationship with governmental agencies for the design 2019 2,500 721 and operation of SpaceShipOne. Once the The rows, for the years with no data (2009, 2010, and 2013), have been omitted from this table. X PRIZE purse was fully funded, Rutan received an investment of *$30 million

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from Paul Allen to design and build the vehicle that ultimately guidelines for human spaceflight crew and occupant safety. won the X PRIZE competition. They also established Mojave The U.S. Congress enacted 2 federal laws to amend the original Aerospace Ventures (MAV) to license the vehicle technology. Commercial Space Launch Act of 1985 after the X PRIZE was After the competition, however, Virgin licensed the vehicle won. State governments (in Hawaii, Virginia, Florida, New design from MAV and entered into a business partnership with Mexico, California, Oklahoma, Texas, and others) passed laws Scaled to create The Spaceship Company (TSC) for the man- related to the space tourism industry, addressing topics of ufacture of future SpaceShipTwo vehicles. Scaled sold its limited liability, informed consent, the establishment of space minority share in TSC in 2012 and effectively exited the space port and space port authorities, taxes, and tax exemptions for tourism industry at that time. Virgin also entered into multiple space-related expenses. SAA with NASA centers. Finally, XCOR also had an SAA with Resources to establish space tourism industry technology NASA. standards (including government mandate, de facto, or industry consensus-voluntary standards) have not yet been Infrastructure development. The last phase of the Developmental substantially accumulated. Contributing factors may include period, Infrastructure Development, is very significant be- the high level of diversity of trade organization members, or cause all actors, either individually or in cooperation with the political nature of creating industry standards. Attempts others, work to ensure the long-term viability of the industry, by the trade organization at standards development has only by building and accumulating IIE of Institutional Arrange- resulted in an industry consensus for propellant handling. ments, Resource Endowments, and Proprietary Functions. More recently, HSSFP members began working with a stan- Development and accumulation of some IIE began before dards development organization, to make progress in this IIE. the X PRIZE events, as discussed in the Gestation phase of the Based on the attitude of Congress toward the level of gov- innovation process model. Resources accumulated after the ernment involvement in space tourism industry emergence, Shock Event phase are discussed in this section. no standards were mandated by government. There are no de facto (i.e., dominant design) standards because no firm has Institutional arrangements. Subcategories of Institutional

fully entered the market. This is a major gap in the develop- Arrangements IIE events include legitimation, governance, ment of Institutional Arrangement IIE. and technology standards. After the X PRIZE, the U.S. regulatory agency (FAA AST) issued safety approvals, experi- Resource endowments. Resource Endowments IIE events in- mental permits, spaceport licenses, and mission licenses clude public-domain (i.e., government funded) scientific and related to the space tourism industry. These regulatory de- technological research, financial arrangements, and the pool 15 terminations increased the legitimacy of HSSFP activities, of human capital. Although government contract R&D gen- such as training services. Other legitimation events included erated very few results relevant to the space tourism industry Congressional testimony regarding space tourism, Congres- since the X PRIZE, federal grants to universities (through the sional recognition of the X PRIZE award, and the induction of FAA Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transporta- SpaceShipOne into the Smithsonian National Air and Space tion) supported suborbital transportation research since 2010. Museum. Political activities of space tourism firms also Government financing provided to space tourism industry influenced legitimacy through active lobbying, and contri- firms for reasons other than knowledge generation (such as {{{ butions to political action committees. market creation) are included in the subelement of financial Space tourism industry governance events also fostered and arrangements. The U.S. Department of Defense, NASA, and reinforced norms and rules of the community, including other government agencies at the federal, state, and municipal recognition ceremonies (awarding of astronaut wings), crea- levels also funded space tourism industry firms through the tion of an space industry trade association (the Personal Small Business Innovation Research program, various ac- Spaceflight Federation, later renamed to the Commercial quisitions, and nonequity investments. The level of govern- Spaceflight Federation), and creation of a space tourism in- mental, nonequity support is small (ranging from $100 dustry interest group (the Suborbital Applications Research thousand to $12 million) compared with private funding Group). The FAA released recommended practices, and other sources in exchange for equity. Equity investments (by private individuals, parent companies, angel investors, venture cap- {{{For this discussion, legitimacy is being characterized as a unidimensional re- italists, and nondomestic governmental investment groups) source. In reality, there are many different dimensions of legitimacy depending on were typically on the order of tens, or hundreds, of millions of which taxonomy is selected.15,20–22 dollars. Jeff Bezos started Blue with a personal investment of

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$500 million. Aabar investments (backed by the government include proprietary R&D conducted by the firms, and of the UAE) provided 2 rounds of funding to Virgin, the manufacturing, assembly, and testing of their vehicles. In- smallest of which was $110 million. The largest private equity sights into privately funded R&D are limited because of the investments far exceeded the level of funding provided by any secretive nature of proprietary activities. Press releases pro- government sources. vide general information, but details of specific projects are Other programs, initiated by both government and non- typically not publicly available. Proprietary research results, government entities, included prize and contest competitions. conducted by firms for their own purposes, differ from the These were categorized separately from other funding sources publicly available R&D conducted in the Resource Endow- because they acted as catalysts for private investment, al- ments element. The in-house R&D activities of each firm though the programs themselves provided a token amount contribute to their intellectual property, protected through the of funding only upon successful completion of the project. patenting process, or by the keeping of trade secrets. These Although the purse could be relatively small (e.g., $10 million protections are necessary to ensure that the firm benefits from in the case of the X PRIZE), it stimulated larger investments their research, and ‘‘free riders’’ do not. Patent data exist for from additional sources, inside and outside the industry. The space tourism firms, but the numbers of patents for some firms Lunar Lander Challenge was a $2 million prize competition are small or zero. The patent quality and applicability to the funded by NASA, administered by the X PRIZE Foundation, space tourism industry are also open to interpretation. Patents and financially supported by Northrop Grumman. A similar awarded to the space tourism firms are listed in the Supple- activity, designed to stimulate industry-wide investment, mentary Appendix. was the short-lived Rocket Racing League. Although prizes Before 2005, Rocketplane participated in a government- are categorized within the funding resource IIE, prize com- sponsored design program, resulting in the partial construc- petitions are also contributors to industry and individual tion of their vehicle. In 2004, XCOR received a mission license legitimacy.15 for the Xerus vehicle design that was never built. The com- Events that develop the HSSFP human competence pool pany worked on rocket propelled aircraft that could partici-

include the creation and execution of educational programs, pate in the newly formed Rocket Racing League, but when recruitment and training events, and knowledge sharing ef- follow-on development contracts did not materialize, they forts. A small number of new educational programs came into announced the design of their Lynx Mark I and Mark II ve- existence after the X PRIZE (including the International Space hicles. The design of the Mark I was completed, and the vehicle University Summer Hemisphere Space Studies Program, and was only partially assembled when the company ran out of the Embry-Riddle Commercial Spaceflight Operations pro- funds. gram), complementing those already in existence. Training Scaled, Virgin, and Blue all conducted flight testing of their programs began to proliferate,16 emphasizing the training vehicles. Since flight testing is difficult to conceal, industry of future nongovernment, citizen-scientist astronauts (e.g., observers easily documented HSSFP vehicle testing activities. Astronauts4Hire, the NASTAR Center, and Embry-Riddle Scaled provided detailed flight test summary reports on their Aeronautical University’s ‘‘Polar Suborbital Science in the website. Flight testing began in 2003 and culminated in the Upper Mesosphere’’ program), and providing training in the prize-winning flights in September and October 2004. The use of space suits, mission simulation, and functioning in flight test program for Scaled is summarized in Table 5. simulated spaceflight conditions (e.g., hypoxia and high At the second competition flight of SpaceShipOne, Sir g-forces). Knowledge sharing events, such as annual and Richard Branson announced the creation of Virgin. Virgin episodic conferences, proliferated. Some events focused spe- worked closely with Scaled from 2004 to design, manufacture, cifically on the HSSFP (e.g., the X PRIZE Cup events, and and assemble SpaceShipTwo, the new vehicle. Testing of op- the Next-Generation Suborbital Researcher’s Conference). As erational procedures, specifically the transfer of nitrous ox- mentioned previously, a bibliometric proxy for HSSFP ide propellant, led to an accident that killed 3 Scaled knowledge sharing activity shows the significant increase of employees. Although this was not considered a space industry knowledge-sharing since the X PRIZE competition (Fig. 4). accident (the accident investigation fell under the purview of the California Occupational Safety and Health Administra- Proprietary functions. The Proprietary Functions IIE events tion), the timeline of SpaceShipTwo development and testing include technology development functions, the creation of was negatively affected by the accident. Flight tests of the new innovation network and resource channels, market creation, vehicle began in 2010 and continued at an increasing pace and consumer demand. Technology development functions until another fatal accident in October 2014 occurred on the

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Table 5. Scaled Composite SS1 Program Testing Summary its operations and intentions. It was not until 2016 that Blue began publicizing Date of Date of their activities, inviting the press to tour Projects First Test Last Test Notes their facilities, and providing web broad- WhiteKnightOne 2002-08-01 2004-06-14 59 Test flights, conducted without casts of their test flights. After the firm SpaceShipOne creation, Blue established their private RocketMotorOne 2002-11-21 2003-11-18 12 Test firings between Sierra Nevada Space launch site near Van Horn, TX, and then and Environmental Aeroscience Corp. tested their early vehicles (the Charon, SpaceShipOne 2003-05-21 2003-10-21 4 Series of ground tests, each up to 14 days Goddard, and Propulsion Module 2) be- long tween 2005 and 2011. After a hiatus of 4 years, the NS vehicle, their first reusable 2003-05-20 2003-08-27 3 Captive carry test flights vehicle capable of carrying humans to 2003-08-07 2004-03-11 8 Glide test flights 100 km altitude, began flight testing. The first NS1 flight test in April 2015 ended in 2003-12-17 2004-10-04 6 Powered test flights loss of vehicle, but NS2 flights re- 2004-06-21 2004-10-04 3 Flights >100 km (last 2 performed to win commenced before the end of the year. NS2 the X PRIZE) went on to fly 5 times before being retired in October 2016. NS3 began its flight tests in December 2017 and is still the vehicle fourth powered flight of SpaceShipTwo. Because the accident being tested at the time of this writing. occurred during flight, this investigation was led by the Blue’s flight test program is summarized in Table 7. National Transportation Safety Board, and testing operations Private research organizations also performed some testing stopped for *2 years. Flight tests resumed in 2016 and are of spaceflight systems (e.g., Southwest Research Institute

still ongoing at the time of this writing. Virgin’s flight test tested pressure suits). Individual testing events for all HSSFP program is summarized in Table 6. companies are listed in the Supplementary Appendix. After its founding in 2000, Blue maintained a low profile, Successful industry emergence requires the creation of an eschewing publicity and maintains a high level of secrecy of innovation network, including the appropriation of common goods, and the development of a network (i.e., channels) of vendors, suppliers, and Table 6. Virgin Galactic SS2 program Testing Summary distributors. Common goods (government- Date of Date of funded scientific and technological results, Projects First Test Last Test Notes education and training programs, knowl- WhiteKnightTwo 2008-12-21 2014-04-12 97 Test flights, conducted without edge sharing activities, and publicly SpaceShipTwo—Enterprise available infrastructure facilities) were RocketMotorTwo 2009-04-20 2014-10-09 57 Test firings discussed above, except for spaceports. Spaceports used by suborbital vehicles do SpaceShipTwo—Enterprise 2010-03-22 2012-07-16 16 Captive carry tests not include the orbital federal launch sites 2013-04-12 2014-08-28 2 Cold flow tests located on the east or west coasts of the

2010-10-10 2014-10-07 30 Glide test flights continental United States (i.e., the Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg ranges). HSSFP 2013-04-29 2014-10-31 4 Powered test flights, the last resulting spaceports available to any vehicle opera- in loss of vehicle tor can be purpose-built, or repurposed SpaceShipTwo—Unity 2016-09-09 2016-11-30 4 Captive carry tests from existing military or civilian facilities, and receive a license to operate from the 2016-12-03 2018-01-11 7 Glide test flights (as of submission date) FAA. Blue uses its own private facility, not available for use by other companies, near 2018-04-05 2019-02-22 5 Powered test flights Van Horn, TX. Virgin is initially committed (as of 2020-03-08) to the New Mexico spaceport but has ex- plored options of operating out of other

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Table 7. Blue Origin Program Testing Summary ufacturing. Other network creation events included XCOR’s partnership with, or acquisition of, other com- Date of Date of panies (such as Xtraordinary Adventures, Rocketship Projects First Test Last Test Notes Tours, or Space Expedition Corp.) to market and sell Charon 2005-03-05 2005-03-05 1 Test flight tickets on their vehicle. Virgin included ticket sales within Goddard 2006-11-13 2007-04-19 3 Test flights the boundaries of their company operations. Rocketplane never actively sold tickets, although angel investors were Propulsion 2011-05-06 2011-08-24 2 Test flights, last ends Module 2 in loss of vehicle promised rides on the vehicle once it was in operation. Blue started offering tickets for sale in 2017, and the ac- New Shepard 1 2015-04-29 2015-04-29 1 Flight test, ends in loss of vehicle tivity was primarily performed in-house. New Shepard 2 2015-11-23 2016-10-05 5 Flight tests HSSFP firms performed market creation and consumer demand activities in many ways, including the unveiling New Shepard 3 2017-12-12 2019-01-23 6 Flight tests (as of 2020-03-08) (i.e., dramatic revealing) of a new vehicle, facility ground breaking, ‘‘grand opening,’’ or dedication events (e.g.,of spaceport runways), the creation of new programs, the locations within the United States and around the world. Other announcement of new industry publications, contests, and HSSFP spaceport sites have been proposed. A list of the HSSFP raffles for winning prizes of suborbital flights, or the predic- spaceports is given in Table 8. tions of first test flights or first commercial flights. For ex- Development of vendor, supplier, and distributor networks ample, there were unveiling events for WhiteKnightTwo and are evident in the HSSFP. An example is the Virgin partner- SpaceShipTwo at the Mojave Air and Space Port. XCOR an- ship with Scaled to create TSC, the manufacturing firm for nounced their Lynx vehicle designs at a press conference, with SpaceShipTwo. Virgin eventually bought Scaled’s share of the the intention of increasing visibility of their company and joint venture in 2012, signaling Scaled’s exit from the HSSFP, project. Contests, including competitions, prizes, awards,

and Virgin’s vertical (backward) integration into vehicle man- raffles, and sweepstakes, were used extensively to promote HSSFP firms (primarily for Virgin and XCOR) and provided some funding, mar- Table 8. The Creation of Human Suborbital Spaceflight Population (HSSFP) keting, and motivation to the companies: Spaceports Year Spaceport (Name, Location) Associated Vehicle Operator ‘‘when you’re at a company that is funded the way we were funded, those sorts of activ- 2004 East Kerns Aviation District, license revised in 2008, Initially Rotary, but later Virgin ities can really help with moral of the em- 2009, renamed the Mojave Air and Space Port in Galactic (for flight testing) ployees. And they see validation in what 2014, Mojave, CA they’re doing. So it was always helpful just to have those things going on and people coming 2006 Oklahoma Spaceport, operated by the Oklahoma Rocketplane through and . them giving a summary of Space and Industry Development Association, license their work. It’s amazing when you have an revised in 2011, near Burns Flat, OK intern or a first-year engineer who’s asked to 2009 New Mexico Spaceport America, license revised in Virgin Galactic (for production well, show this person what you’re working on. And then they find out later that that’s the 2012 and 2014, near Truth or Consequences, NM operations) number 2 producer at The Big Bang Theory, 2010 Cecil Field Spaceport, operated by the Jacksonville Rocketplane their favorite TV show . It’s like, ‘Oh my Airport Authority, aka Ellis Field, license revised in God!’, you know?’’—Former HSSFP Executive 2015, Jacksonville, FL Actual demonstrations of demand, 2014 Midland International Air & Space Port, operated by XCOR Aerospace through the advanced purchase of tickets Midland International Airport, Midland, TX for future flights, are discussed in the In- novation Adoption section. 2015 Houston Spaceport, owned and managed by the Sierra Nevada (not a HSSFP firm, Houston Airport System, aka Ellington Field District, but the facility is usable by HSSFP Industry emergence is a result of sur- Houston, TX vehicles) viving all the challenges encountered in the Developmental period of the innova- 2018 Colorado Air and Space Port, Front Range, CO None tion process. Setbacks, mistakes, personnel changes, partnerships, management and

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Innovation adoption. As of early 2020, Blue and Virgin are working to enter the HSSFP market. A proxy for HSSFP innovation adoption exists, however, in the number of flight reservations re- corded. Based on statements made by Virgin officials, the number of reservations has shown a steady growth, from 0 in 2005 to the first 100 reservations by 2006, and reaching *700 at the time of the SpaceShipTwo accident in October 2014 (Fig. 5).**** Since that time, the number of reservations has held steady, primary because Virgin halted sales. These reservations were made through deposits, between 10% and 100% of the full ticket price (initially $200,000 and raised to $250,000 in mid- Fig. 5. Number of reported flight reservations on the Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo vehicle. 2013). Reportedly, XCOR also

sold on the order of 200–300 investor involvement, shifting of goals, and the complex advanced tickets, but the degree of documentation on these process of building and accumulating all the industry infra- numbers is less rigorous than those for Virgin. At the same structure resources are constant barriers that new industry time that reservations for future flights were being sold, NASA firms must overcome. If they survive the first 2 periods, firms began the Flight Opportunities Program, intended to stimulate may independently progress into the ultimate stage of the demand for the HSSFP flights. The program issued contracts to innovation process, the Implementation period. developers of experiments and payloads that could eventually fly on the suborbital vehicles, or they purchased future flights on pre-production vehicles. Implementation Period The Implementation period includes phases of Adoption, Termination. Whereas innovation adoption is a positive sign when the innovation finds some degree of market acceptance, for industry emergence, firm exits are negative indicators. and Termination, in the cases where insufficient adoption Scaled voluntarily phased out of suborbital flight operations forces the innovation process to end, or the firm to cease after winning the X PRIZE competition, at which time, it li- operations. As of the time of this writing, 2 HSSFP firms (Blue censed the design of SpaceShipTwo to Virgin. The 2 compa- and Virgin) are still in a state of pre-production, awaiting nies then partnered to create TSC. Scaled eventually sold its strong evidence of market acceptance.xxx Although customers share of TSC to Virgin in 2012, effectively exiting the HSSFP have purchased, or placed deposits toward, future space- altogether. In 2006, Rocketplane diverted all their resources to flights, no company has yet delivered a successful suborbital work on an orbital vehicle under the NASA COTS program. In spaceflight to a paying customer. The Termination phase has 2007, when Rocketplane failed to meet a required financial already been experienced, voluntarily by Scaled, and invol- milestone, NASA removed Rocketplane from the program. untarily by Rocketplane and XCOR. This forced the company into ‘‘hibernation mode.’’ Ultimately, xxxBoth these space tourism companies have flown scientific experiment payloads ****Any ticket reservation holder was given the option to opt-out of their future for paying customers, demonstrating the emergence of the Research and Edu- flight in light of the accident. Anecdotally, there was a slight reduction in res- cational Missions market. ervations, but the number quickly rebounded to the pre-accident level.

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the company filed for bankruptcy and was eventually sold at a complex series of activities that facilitate the development auction for $25,000. Over time, the XCOR vehicle develop- and maturation of suborbital transportation innovations. ment activities ran out of funding and that team was released Surviving these challenges is difficult and include setbacks, in June 2016. By June 2017, the engine development con- mistakes, personnel changes, partnerships, management and tract was terminated, forcing the entire company to file for investor involvement, and shifting goals. HSSFP actors ac- bankruptcy. tively accumulated and are still accumulating, most of the IIE resources required for successful space tourism industry Summary emergence. Space tourism firms that eventually exited the This research identified HSSFP events that fit within the industry received financial resources on the order of tens of innovation process ‘‘fireworks’’ model and provide the industry millions of dollars. The 2 remaining space tourism firms still in emergence story. All 3 periods and 12 phases of the model are existence, however, received funding on the order of hundreds represented by the observed events, demonstrating that the of millions of dollars. Subsequently, firms progressed to the industry is past the initial emergence stages, into an interme- last stage of the innovation process, the Implementation pe- diate pre-production phase, that is seemingly close to actual riod. Although a number of pre-flight ticket reservations have commercial operation. This will be signaled once any firm flies been received by one of the 2 remaining space tourism firms, a customer in exchange for a ticket sold. To date, many tickets no customer has yet flown in a suborbital space transportation have been sold, but no customers have flown. Scaled, the 1 vehicle, evidence that this industry segment has yet to dem- firm that diversified into the suborbital transportation market, onstrate full emergence. Finally, 1 resource, technology has voluntarily redirected their focus back to innovative air- standards, is still underdeveloped. While this is characteristic craft design. Another 2 firms exited the HSSFP due to financial of industry evolution before the clear identification of market constraints. The remaining 2 firms, Blue and Virgin, persist in demand and emergence of a dominant design, the continued their efforts to enter the market of offering suborbital space absence of standards could increase interorganizational con- transportation flights to paying customers. flict and reduce HSSFP legitimacy, both of which would re-

duce the chances of successful emergence. CONCLUSION The data supporting this research are made available in the The purpose of this article is to describe the emergence of attached Supplementary Appendix, fully cited, for use by the HSSFP within models of the innovation process and re- other researchers (with the presumption that appropriate at- quired industry resources. The HSSFP emergence description tribution will be given) following a compatible data collection (given here) and the cited event data (provided in the Sup- methodology. It is hoped that a practice of collectivist data plementary Appendix) are offered for use by researchers collection can be established, allowing other organizational employing a similar data collection methodology in support change and innovation researchers to benefit from, and con- of their innovation process research. This research collected tribute to, a data pool encompassing multiple dimensions, individual HSSFP incidents, and combined them, through a including industry contexts, time periods, and geographic 2-stage categorization process, into relevant events. A chart coverage. of HSSFP emergence was created by framing the events chronologically within the IIE framework. The history of ACKNOWLEDGMENTS HSSFP emergence was described within the 3 periods and 12 This work was conducted as part of a doctoral thesis, under phases of the innovation process ‘‘fireworks’’ model. the academic supervision of Dr. Richard Chivaka at the Uni- Initiation period events laid the foundation of knowledge versity of Cape Town Graduate School of Business. At the and technologies supporting HSSFP emergence based on time of this submission, the author was an employee of the government test programs starting in the 1950s. The space FAA, which neither endorses nor rejects the findings of this tourism industry also benefited from institutional treaties, research. laws, and regulations, affecting space activities in general, from the mid-1960s until the mid-1980s. The Ansari X PRIZE, AUTHOR DISCLOSURE STATEMENT starting with the initial announcement in 1996, and ending No competing financial interests exist. with the $10 million purse award in 2004, provided the major shock trigger that acted as a catalyst for the formation of new FUNDING INFORMATION space tourism firms, signaling the end of the first period of the This research was personally funded and did not receive innovation process. Next, the Developmental period describes support from any other organization.

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SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 12. Romanelli E, Tushman ML. Organizational transformation as unctuated Supplementary Appendix equilibrium: An empirical test. Acad Manage J. 1994;37(5):1141–1166. 13. Astley WG. The two ecologies: Population and community perspectives on organizational evolution. Administrative Sci Q. 1985;30(2):224–241. REFERENCES 14. St. Fleur N. Besoz is selling $1 billion of Amazon stock a year to fund rocket venture. The New York Times, Colorado Springs, CO, 2017. 1. Van de Ven AH, Poole MS. Methods for studying innovation development in the 15. Aldrich HE, Fiol CM. Fools rush in? The institutional context of industry creation. Minnesota Innovation Research Program. Organ Sci. 1990; 1(3):313–335. Acad Manage Rev. 1994;19(4):645–670. 2. Van de Ven AH, Poole MS. An introduction to the Minnesota innovation 16. Futron Corporation. Commercial Human Spaceflight Crew Training Survey. research program. In Van de Ven AH, Angle HL, Poole MS (eds). Research on the Washington, DC, 2008. https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_ Management of Innovation: The Minnesota Studies. New York, NY: Oxford offices/ast/media/Crew_Training_Survey_Feb_2008.pdf Last accessed, May 5, University Press on Demand, 2000:3–30. 2020. 3. Van de Ven AH, Angle HL, Poole MS. Research on the Management of 17. Van de Ven AH, Garud RB. A framework for understanding the emergence Innovation: The Minnesota Studies. New York, NY: Oxford University Press on of new industries. In: Rosenbloom RS, Burgelman RA, eds. Research on Demand, 2000. Technological Innovation, Management and Policy, Vol. 4. Greenwich, CT: JAI 4. Geels FW. Co-evolutionary and multi-level dynamics in transitions: The Press, 1989:195–225. transformation of aviation systems and the shift from propeller to turbojet 18. Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act. US Government Printing Office. (1930–1970). Technovation. 2006;26(9):999–1016. 2004. 51 U.S.C. Ch. 509, xx 70101-20. 5. Van de Ven AH, Polley DE, Garud R, Venkataraman S. The Innovation Journey, 19. Colfield C. DARPA ties XS-1 military space plane project to national security. 1st ed. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1999. Space.com. 2017. 6. Musk E. Making life multi-planetary. New Space. 2018;6(1):2–11. 20. Tost LP. An integrative model of legitimacy judgments. Acad Manage Rev. 2011; 7. NewSpaceGlobal. NewSpace Watch. 2015. www.newspaceglobal.com/products/ 36(4):686–710. newspace-watch Last accessed August 1, 2015. 21. Suchman MC. Managing legitimacy: Strategic and institutional approaches. 8. Van de Ven AH. A community perspective on the emergence of innovations. Acad Manage Rev. 1995; 20(3):571–610. J Eng Technol Manage. 1993;10(1–2):23–51. 22. Weber M. Economy and Society: An Outline of Interpretive Sociology. Oakland, 9. Van de Ven AH. The emergence of an industrial infrastructure for technological CA: University of California Press, 1978. innovation. J Comp Econ. 1993;17(2):338–365. 10. Garud RB, Van de Ven AH. Technological innovation and industry emergence: The case of cochlear implants. In Van de Ven AH, Angle HL, Poole MS (eds). Address correspondence to: Research on the Management of Innovation: The Minnesota Studies. New York, NY: Oxford University Press on Demand, 2000:489–532. Ken Davidian 11. Tushman ML, Romanelli E. Organizational evolution: A metamorphosis model of convergence and reorientation. Res Organizational Behav 1985;7:171–222. Email: [email protected]

102 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. APPENDIX. LIST OF HISTORICAL EVENT ANALYSIS EVENTS

Below is a chronological list of all Institutional Arrangement, Resource Endowment, and Proprietary Function events discussed in this analysis. Over 95% (all but 20 of the approximately 450 events) have citations, and those that don’t are indicated with a “cite missing” notation. Event descriptions are preceded by dates in yyyy-mm-dd format. Date placeholders, denoted by double upper-case letter “X,” indicate an unknown month or date, depending where it appears in the format sequence. Abbreviations used in this

Appendix are shown in the table below.

Abbrev. Meaning A4H Astronauts 4 Hire AECA Arms Export Control Act AFRC Armstrong Flight Research Center ARC Ames Research Center AST Office of Commercial Space Transportation CCDEV Commercial Crew Development CEO Chief Executive Officer COE CST Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation COTS Commercial Orbital Transportation System CSF Commercial Spaceflight Federation CSLA Commercial Space Launch Act CSLAA Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act CSLCA Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act CSTR Commercial Space Transportation Regulations DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DOT Department of Transportation EAA Export Administration Act EAR Export Administration Regulations EP Experimental Permit ETC Environmental Tectonics Corporation FAA Federal Aviation Administration HSSFP Human Suborbital Space Flight Population IAC International Astronautical Congress ISDC International Space Development Conference ISPCS International Symposium for Personal Commercial Spaceflight ITAR International Trade in Arms Regulations JAA Jacksonville Aviation Authority km Kilometers KSC Kennedy Space Center LaRC Langley Research Center LLC Limited Liability Company LSO Launch Site Operator MAV Mojave Aerospace Ventures Abbrev. Meaning MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology MSFC Marshall Space Flight Center NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASTAR National Aerospace Training and Research NBC National Broadcasting Company NGLLC Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge NM New Mexico NMSA New Mexico Spaceport Authority NS1 New Shepard One NS2 New Shepard Two NS3 New Shepard Three NSRC Next Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference NSS National Space Society OCST Office of Commercial Space Transportation OSIDA Oklahoma Space Industry Development Authority PAC Political Action Committee PM2 Propulsion Module Two PoSSUM Polar Suborbital Science in the Upper Mesosphere PSF Personal Spaceflight Federation RASCAL Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch RR Rocket Racing SA Safety Approval SAA Space Act Agreement SARG Space Applications Research Group SAS Space Access Society SB State Bill SBIR Small Business Innovation Research SC Scaled Composites SEDS Students for the Exploration and Development of Space SFF Space Frontier Foundation SS1 SpaceShipOne SS2 SpaceShipTwo SS2(E) SpaceShipTwo - Enterprise SS2(U) SpaceShipTwo - Unity STTR Small Business Technology Transfer SwRI Southwest Research Institute TSC The Spaceship Company TX Texas U.S. United States UAE United Arab Emirates UK United Kingdom ULA United Launch Alliance VG Virgin Galactic WK1 White Knight One WK2 White Knight Two WSTF White Sands Test Facility XCOR Not an abbreviation

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TABLE OF INDUSTRY INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS

1.0 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

1.1 LEGITIMATION 1.1.1 Guarantees 2010-04-07 FAA AST issues NASTAR safety approval SA 10-001 (FAA AST, 2015c). 2011-04-20 FAA AST issues ZeroG safety approval SA 11-002 (FAA AST, 2016b). 2011-06-10 FAA AST issues SpaceTEC safety approval SA 11-003 (FAA AST, 2011b). 2012-09-11 FAA AST issues NASTAR safety approval SA 12-004 (FAA AST, 2011c). 2013-03-28 FAA AST issues Black Sky Training safety approval SA 13-005 (FAA AST, 2013b). 2014-01-22 FAA AST issues Black Sky Training safety approval SA 14-006 (FAA AST, 2014e). 2014-01-23 FAA AST issues Waypoint2Space safety approval SA 14-007 (FAA AST, 2014f). 2015-04-03 FAA AST issues NASTAR safety approval SA 10-001 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2015c). 1.1.2 Endorsements 2003-07-24 Dennis Tito, Jeff Greason, et al., lobby for commercial space regulation changes (Muncy, 2017; Space.com, 2003). 2004-10-08 House Passes Resolution Honoring X PRIZE Recipients (House Science Committee, 2004) 2005-10-05 SpaceShipOne is inducted into the National Air and Space Museum (Hales, 2005). 2006-2017 XCOR lobbying expense history (OpenSecrets, 2016b). [8 events] 2012-07-13 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402686 between Virgin Galactic and NASA AFRC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2012-07-13 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402686 between Virgin Galactic and NASA ARC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2012-2016 Blue Origin PAC expense history (OpenSecrets, 2016a). [3 events] 2012-2016 Virgin Galactic PAC expense history (OpenSecrets, 2016c). [3 events] 2013-12-23 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402809 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA ARC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2013-2017 Blue Origin lobbying expense history (OpenSecrets, 2018). [4 events] 2014-04-30 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-14-16704 between Blue Origin LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2014-04-30 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-14-16704-1 between Blue Origin LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2014-06-17 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA1-17595 between Virgin Galactic Corporation and NASA LaRC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2014-2017 Virgin Galactic lobbying expense history (OpenSecrets, citation needed). 2015-01-14 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement SAA1-18877 between XCOR Aerospace and NASA LaRC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2015-06-29 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402686-2 between Virgin Galactic and NASA ARC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2016-04-15 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement KCA-4502 Rev. Basic between Blue Origin and NASA KSC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2016-04-20 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-403106 between Virgin Galactic LLC and NASA ARC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2017-01-13 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA8-1724581 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA MSFC (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2017-03-27 Reimbursable space act agreement KCA-4514 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA KSC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).

5-Jul-20 3 2017-04-18 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-17-25434 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2017-04-18 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-17-25434-01 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2017-08-05 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-17-20648 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017). 1.1.3 Licensing Practices 2004-04-01 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites a launch license (FAA AST, 2004). 2004-04-23 FAA AST issues XCOR a license for XERUS vehicle (Boyle, 2004). 2004-06-17 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 (FAA AST, 2014c). 2006-06-12 FAA AST issues OSIDA a spaceport license LSO 06-010 (FAA AST, 2011a). 2006-09-15 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 06-001 (FAA AST, 2007). 2007-12-20 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2014c). 2008-09-25 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 2 (FAA AST, 2014c). 2008-12-15 FAA AST issues NMSA a spaceport license LSO 08-011 (FAA AST, 2013a). 2009-05-05 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 3 (FAA AST, 2014c). 2010-01-11 FAA AST issues JAA a spaceport license LSO 09-012 (FAA AST, 2015a). 2011-04-29 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 11-006 (FAA AST, 2007). 2011-05-06 FAA AST issues OSIDA a spaceport license LSO 06-010 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2011a). 2011-05-20 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 11-006 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2007). 2012-05-23 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites an experimental permit EP 12-007 (FAA AST, 2014a). 2012-07-31 FAA AST issues NMSA a spaceport license LSO 08-011 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2013a). 2013-05-22 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites an experimental permit EP 12-007 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2014a). 2013-12-09 FAA AST issues NMSA a spaceport license LSO 08-011 rev 2 (FAA AST, 2013a). 2014-02-14 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2014-05-21 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites an experimental permit EP 12-007 rev 2 (FAA AST, 2014a). 2014-06-13 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 4 (FAA AST, 2014c). 2014-09-15 FAA AST issues Midland a spaceport license LSO 14-015 (FAA AST, 2014d). 2014-12-19 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2015-01-06 FAA AST issues JAA a spaceport license LSO 09-012 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2015a). 2015-02-12 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 rev 2 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2016-02-05 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 rev 3 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2016-06-26 FAA AST issues Houston a spaceport license LSO 15-016 (FAA AST, 2015b). 2016-07-29 FAA AST issues Virgin Galactic a launch operator’s license LRLO 16-092 (FAA AST, 2016a). 2018-08-17 FAA AST issues Front Range spaceport license LSO 18-017 (FAA AST, 2018). 1.1.4 Industry Regulations

1.2 GOVERNANCE 1.2.1 Norms and Rules 2004-06-21 Mike Melvill is awarded astronaut wings, for first flight of SS1 above an altitude of 50km, by FAA AST Associate Administrator, Patti Grace-Smith (Harwood, 2004).

4 5-Jul-20 2004-10-04 Brian Binnie is awarded astronaut wings, for first flight of SS1 above an altitude of 50km, by FAA AST Associate Administrator, Patti Grace-Smith (David, 2004) 2005-02-09 Creation of the Personal Spaceflight Federation (PSF) announced (David, 2005). 2009-06-15 Renaming of the PSF to the Commercial Spaceflight Federation (CSF) (Commercial Spaceflight Federation, 2009) 2009-08-18 Creation of the Suborbital Applications Research Group (SARG) as a CSF committee (SpaceNews Staff, 2009). 2019-02-10 VG SS2 pilot, Frederick Sturckow, and co-pilot, Mark Stucky receive astronaut wings from Department of Transportation Secretary, Elaine Chao, in a public ceremony. 2019-XX-XX VG SS2 pilot, Dave Mackay, co-pilot, Michael Masucci, and flight crew, Beth Moses, receive astronaut wings in public ceremony. 1.2.2 Regulations 1976-06-30 International Trade in Arms Regulations (ITAR) adopted (Arms Export Control Act, 1976). 1979-09-29 Export Administration Regulations (EAR) adopted (Export Administration Act, 1979). 1984-10-30 Commercial Space Transportation Regulations (CSTR) adopted (Commercial Space Launch Act, 1984). 2006-12-15 Release of Human Spaceflight Requirements for Crew and Space Flight Participants (Federal Aviation Administration, 2006). 2014-08-27 Release of Recommended Practices for Human Space Flight Occupant Safety (Federal Aviation Administration, 2014). 2017-04-04 Release of Guidance on informing crew and space flight participants of risk. Version 1.1 (Federal Aviation Administration, 2017). 1.2.3 Laws (including Regulation Authorization) 1967-01-27 U.S. adopts the Outer Space Treaty (U.S. Department of State, 1967). 1976-06-30 Arms Export Control Act (AECA) signed into law (Arms Export Control Act, 1976). 1979-09-29 Export Administration Act (EAA) signed into law (Export Administration Act, 1979). 1984-10-30 CSLA bill signed into law, and creates the Office of Commercial Space Transportation (OCST) within the Department of Transportation (Commercial Space Launch Act, 1984). 1995-XX-XX CSTR authority transferred from DOT OCST to FAA AST by executive order (cite missing). 1999-07-01 Oklahoma creates the Oklahoma Space Industry Development Authority (State of Oklahoma, 1999). 2001-05-24 Oklahoma passes a transferrable tax credit law for Rocketplane (Lauer, 2017; State of Oklahoma, 2001). 2004-12-24 CSLAA signed into law (Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act, 2004). 2005-04-04 New Mexico Spaceport Authority created (State of New Mexico, 2005c). 2005-2016 New Mexico passes multiple spaceport appropriation bills (State of New Mexico, 2005a, 2007d, 2013a, 2014c, 2015, 2016b, 2007a, 2008a, 2008c, 2009a, 2010b, 2010a, 2011, 2012a). 2005-2016 New Mexico passes multiple spaceport authorization bills (State of New Mexico, 2005b, 2006b, 2013b, 2013c, 2014b, 2016a, 2016c, 2006c, 2006a, 2007b, 2007e, 2007c, 2008b, 2009b, 2012b). [1 or 15 events] 2007-04-11 Virginia passes a limited liability and civil immunity law (State of Virginia, 2007). 2008-06-17 Florida passes liability immunity and requires informed consent for suborbital flight participants (State of Florida, 2008). 2010-2013 New Mexico passes informed consent laws SB 9 and SB 240 (State of New Mexico, 2010c, 2013d). 2011-03-25 Virginia passes a tax exemption law for commercial human spaceflight (State of Virginia, 2011). 2011-06-14 Florida gives permission for Cecil Field to become spaceport (Wood, 2011). 2012-02-16 Florida passes spaceport facilities law (State of Florida, 2012a). 2012-04-13 Florida creates spaceport territory for Cecil Field (State of Florida, 2012b). 2012-05-10 Hawaii passes a law to appropriate funds for a spaceport license (State of Hawaii, 2012).

5-Jul-20 5 2012-09-21 California passes space flight liability and immunity law (State of California, 2012). 2013-04-02 New Mexico passes spaceflight informed consent act (State of New Mexico, 2013d). 2014-03-11 New Mexico passes spaceport financial bill (State of New Mexico, 2014a). 2014-04-28 California passes tax exemption law for space flight property (State of California, 2014b). 2014-06-14 California passes informed consent law (State of California, 2014a). 2015-11-25 CSLCA bill signed into law (Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, 2016).

1.3 TECHNOLOGY STANDARDS 1.3.1 Government Regulatory Mandates 1.3.2 Cooperative, Voluntary Industry Standards 2015-05-XX Industry consensus propellant handling standards developed (CSF, 2015). 1.3.3 Market-driven, de facto Standards

2.0 RESOURCE ENDOWMENTS

2.1 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL RESEARCH 2.1.1 Government Contract R&D Results 1955-1956 U.S. Air Force’s X-2 vehicle performs 13 test flights (“X-2,” 2018) 1957-09-27 Fatal accident during an X-2 test flight (“X-2,” 2018). 1959-1969 U.S. Air Force’s X-15 vehicle performs 340 test flights (“X-15A,” 2018). 1961-05-05 First suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury (Gunter’s Space Page, 2018). 1961-07-21 Second suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury (Gunter’s Space Page, 2018). 1967-11-15 Fatal accident during an X-15 test flight (“X-15 Flight 191,” 2018) 1968-1970 U.S. Air Force’s HL-10 vehicle performs 37 test flights (“HL-10,” 2018) 1970-1971 U.S. Air Force’s X-24A vehicle performs 28 test flights (“X-24A,” 2018) 1970-1972 U.S. Air Force’s M2-F3 vehicle performs 43 test flights (“M2-F3,” 2018) 1973-1975 U.S. Air Force’s X-24B vehicle performs 36 test flights (“X-24B,” 2018) 1990-1996 Delta Clipper Program (“Delta Clipper,” 2018) 2.1.2 Government Grant R&D Results 2010-08-18 FAA AST announces selection of COE CST universities (Price, 2010). 2010-09-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $1,500,000 for suborbital research (Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2012). 2011-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $260,000 suborbital research (Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2013). 2012-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $1,400,000 suborbital research (Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2014). 2013-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $830,000 suborbital research (Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2015). 2014-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $1,000,000 suborbital research (Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2016). 2015-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $810,000 suborbital research (Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2017). 2016-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $500,000 suborbital research (Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2017).

2.2 FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS 2.2.1 SBIR Funding 2002-01-01 Navy gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $98,335 to XCOR (“Metal truss X-cor structures for marine expeditionary fighting vehicles,” 2002).

6 5-Jul-20 2003-01-01 DARPA gives STTR Phase 2 contract of $750K to XCOR (“Piston pump for rocket propellant applications,” 2003). 2005-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $98,867 to XCOR (“Advanced regeneratively cooled LOx / methane rocket engine with innovative injector design,” 2005). 2007-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99.935 to XCOR (“Hardware component prototyping for operationally responsive space access,” 2007). 2008-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99,207 to XCOR (“Variable thrust liquid or gel propulsion for mission flexibility,” 2008). 2008-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99,675 to XCOR (“High propellant throughput microthrusters for next-generation nanosatellites,” 2008). 2008-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 2 award of $749,513 to XCOR (“Hardware component prototyping for operationally responsive space access,” 2007). 2011-01-01 NASA gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99,859 to XCOR (“Cryogenic composite tank fabrication for reusable launch vehicles,” 2011). 2015-01-01 NASA gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $125,000 to Blue Origin (“Thermo-catalytic ignition of cryogenic oxygen-methane,” 2015). 2.2.2 Government Contract Funding 2001-2005 DARPA Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch (RASCAL) program (“DARPA selects Space Launch Corp. for second phase of RASCAL,” 2003; “RASCAL - Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch / SLC-1,” 2011). 2005-04-01 XCOR awarded $1.1M NASA contract ($0.5M in 2005 and $0.6M in 2006) for cryogenic tank development (“NASA-XCOR Contract NNM05AB14C,” 2018). 2010-01-30 Blue Origin awarded $3.6M in NASA Commercial Crew Development (CCDEV) Phase 1 (NASA Johnson Space Center, 2010). 2011-04-18 Blue Origin awarded $22M in NASA CCDEV Phase 2 (NASA, 2011). 2014-07-01 Blue Origin-Boeing team awarded $4M XS-1 contract from DARPA (Wall, 2015). 2014-07-01 Masten-XCOR team awarded $3M XS-1 contract from DARPA (Federal Business Opportunities, 2014) 2014-07-01 VG-Northrop team awarded $4M XS-1 contract from DARPA (Wall, 2015). 2014-09-18 Virgin Galactic awarded $100K NASA contract for payload integration (“National Aeronautics and Space Administration NND14AP03B-NND14AP13T To Virgin Galactic LLC $100k,” 2018). 2015-08-08 Blue Origin-Boeing team receives DARPA XS-1 Phase B contract (Wall, 2015). 2015-08-08 Masten-XCOR team receives DARPA XS-1 Phase B contract (Wall, 2015). 2015-08-08 Virgin Galactic-Northrop team receives DARPA XS-1 Phase B contract (Wall, 2015). 2015-09-30 Virgin Galactic awarded $3.1M NASA contract for a satellite launch, but it is unknown if payment was ever made, since VG never flew (GSA FPDS, 2018). 2016-03-24 Virgin Galactic contract with NASA for $0.5M (GSA FPDS, 2018). 2016-09-28 Virgin Galactic contract with NASA for $1.1M (GSA FPDS, 2018). 2.2.3 Non-Equity Investment 2003-XX-XX Rocketplane converts $15M of transferrable tax credits into $12M cash, calls it the “O” Prize (De Keyser, 2005) 2010-10-18 FAA AST awards Space Transportation Infrastructure Matching Grants for $273K to three HSSFP spaceports of in 2010 (FAA AST, 2013c; Kinney, 2010). 2011-08-26 FAA AST awards Space Transportation Infrastructure Matching Grants for $374K to two HSSFP spaceports of in 2011 (FAA AST, 2013c; Messier, 2011). 2012-09-25 FAA AST awards Space Transportation Infrastructure Matching Grants for $474K to three HSSFP spaceports of in 2012 (FAA AST, 2013c; Price, 2012). 2013-07-12 Midland Development Corp. gives XCOR a $10M loan that didn’t have to be repaid if certain milestones were met (Petty, 2012). 2.2.4 Equity Investment 2000-01-09 Jeff Bezos invests $500M in Blue Origin (Bryce Space and Technology, 2017).

5-Jul-20 7 2002-XX-XX Paul Allen invests $28M in Scaled Composites for SpaceShipOne (Allen, 2012; Doughton, 2004; Foust, 2011; NASA, 2010). 2003-04-16 XCOR Secures $187,500 Equity Investment (XCOR Aerospace, 2003). 2003-XX-XX George French invests $10M in Rocketplane (Lauer, 2017) 2004-01-01 The Virgin Group invests $100M in Virgin Galactic (Bryce Space and Technology, 2017). 2007-06-07 XCOR receives investment from Boston Harbor Angels (XCOR, 2007). 2008-08-19 XCOR gets first institutional investor: Desert Sky holdings (XCOR, 2008). 2009-07-28 Aabar (UAE) invests $280M in Virgin Galactic (MSNBC, 2009). 2011-10-19 Aabar invests an additional $110M in Virgin Galactic (Malas, 2011). 2012-02-27 XCOR raises $5M of equity funding (XCOR, 2012a). 2012-XX-XX Space Florida invests $3M in XCOR (XCOR, 2012b). 2014-05-27 XCOR raises $14.2M equity investment (P. de Selding, 2014). 2015-05-26 XCOR raises $5M of equity investment (Knapp, 2015). 2015-08-06 Jeff Bezos raises $500M selling Amazon stock (Computer Business Review, 2015). 2015-09-15 Bezos invests $200M into Blue Origin (Klotz, 2015). 2.2.5 Industry-Wide Stimuli 1996-05-18 X PRIZE Foundation announces X PRIZE competition (Uhlenbrock, 1996) 2004-05-05 X PRIZE announces title sponsor, Ansari (Linehan, 2011). 2004-11-06 X PRIZE awards $10M to Burt Rutan (X PRIZE Foundation, 2004). 2005-10-03 Rocket Racing League announced (Malik, 2005; Rocket Racing League, 2005). 2005-10-11 Announcement of NASA Centennial Challenges Lunar Landing Prize (Harrington & Braukus, 2005). 2006-10-10 Wirefly.com sponsors X PRIZE Cup event (Murphy & Cohen, 2006). 2008-10-26 NGLLC awards $350K to Armadillo Aerospace (David, 2008c). 2009-11-05 NGLLC awards $1.65M in award ceremony (NASA CC, 2009). 2014 Rocket Racing League ceases operation (Cole, 2017).

2.3 HUMAN COMPETENCE POOL 2.3.1 Educational Programs 1987-04-XX International Space University conducts first Summer Session Program (Marshall, 1988). 1987-XX-XX University of North Dakota conducts its first Space Studies program (University of North Dakota, 2018). 1995-XX-XX International Space University conducts first Master of Space Studies program (cite missing). 2011-01-05 International Space University conducts first Southern Hemisphere Space Studies program (Nardelli, 2010; Schwob & Nardelli, 2012) 2013-09-XX Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University initiates its Commercial Spaceflight Operations program, later renamed to Space Flight Operations (Plafke, 2013). 2.3.2 Recruitment and Training 2004-XX-XX Rocketplane employment in 2004 is 60-70 (Lauer, 2017). 2004-XX-XX Scaled Composites total employment in 2004 is approximately 125 people. (David, 2007b) 2005-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2005 is 17 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2006-XX-XX Rocketplane employment in 2006 is 30 (Lauer, 2017). 2007-XX-XX Scaled Composites total employment in 2007 is approximately 250 people. (David, 2007b) 2008-02-XX Futron Training Survey Report released (Futron Corporation, 2008). 2008-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2008 is 30-35 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2010-05-17 VG names George Whitesides as first CEO (Virgin Galactic, 2010). 2010-12-23 VG President Will Whitehorn announces retirement. George Whitesides to become CEO and President (Foust, 2010).

8 5-Jul-20 2010-XX-XX Astronauts 4 Hire (A4H) begins operation (Livingston, 2010). 2011-05-19 Formation of NASTAR Foundation announced (cite missing). 2011-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2011 is 25-30 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2012-02-26 ETC National Aerospace Training and Research (NASTAR) Center announces commercial space training courses (ETC, 2012). 2012-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2012 is 50 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2013-07-10 Steven J. Isakowitz named as President of Virgin Galactic LLC (Virgin Galactic, 2013) 2014-XX-XX Blue Origin employment approximately 350 on Sept 14, 2014. (“FAQ- ULA AND BLUE ORIGIN PARTNERSHIP,” n.d.) (source: http://www.ulalaunch.com/faq-ula-and-blue-origin- partnership.aspx) 2014-XX-XX Virgin Galactic total employment in 2014 is approximately 400 people. (Cofield, 2015)Cofield, C. (2015). 2014-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2014 is 80 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2015-XX-XX Virgin Galactic total employment in 2015 is over 500 people. (Cofield, 2015) 2015-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2015 is 110 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2016-10-13 Mike Moses named Virgin Galactic president (Foust, 2016c). 2016-10-13 Virgin employment at 700, stated in a presentation by Mike Moses at ISPCS (International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spacepflight, 2016a). 2016-10-13 Blue employment currently at 800, double from previous year as stated in presentation by Rob Meyerson at ISPCS (International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spacepflight, 2016b). 2016-10-16 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University initiates its PoSSUM program (Roddey, 2016). 2016-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on Nov 1, 2016: 800, stated in a presentation by Clay Mowry talk at IAC Planning Meeting. 2016-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2016 is 50-60 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2017-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on Dec 19, 2017: 1,400, Jeff Foust on Twitter: "Wagner: when I joined Blue Origin 5.5 years ago, company had 170 employees. We just hit 1,400." 2017-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on March 26, 2017: 1,024, stated in a presentation by Clay Mowry talk at IAC Planning Meeting. 2018-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on 11 March 2018: 1,400, stated in a presentation by Erika Wagner at the MIT New Space Age Conference, Cambridge, MA. 2019-10-29 Virgin Galactic reports having 721 employees (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2019). 2019-11-29 Blue Origin has 2,500 employees (Boyle, 2019). 2.3.3 Knowledge Sharing 1982-05-XX First National Space Society (NSS) International Space Development Conference (ISDC) held (NSS, 2018). 1982-1997 Students for the Exploration and Development of Space Conference held (Lewicki, 2018) 2004-Present Annual Students for the Exploration and Development of Space (SEDS) conference, last held in 1997, resumes under the name of SpaceVision, in 2004 (cite missing). 1991-2005 Space Frontier Foundation (SFF) Space Frontier Conferences held (“Past Events,” 2018). 1993-04-XX First Space Access Society (SAS) Conference held (Werner, 2011). 1998-Present The FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation annual conference, originally called the Commercial Space Transportation Forecast Conference at least through 2000, and renamed to the FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference by 2005) (Blakey, 2005; FAA AST, 1998). 1999-2011 Space Frontier Foundation (SFF) Space Enterprise Symposium, Lunar Commerce Roundtables, and Space Investment Summits held (“Past Events,” 2018). 2005-2007 X PRIZE Cup events were held (Seibold et al., 2008). 2005-Present Annual International Symposium on Personal and Commercial Spaceflight (ISPCS) (originally called International Symposium on Personal Spaceflight) held (“Past ISPCS,” 2018). 2006-Present Space Frontier Foundation (SFF) NewSpace Conferences held (“Past Events,” 2018).

5-Jul-20 9 2008-Present Next Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference (NSRC) held (“NSRC Home,” 2018). The first meeting in 2008, was called the Human-Tended Suborbital Science Workshop, held San Francisco, CA (Werner, 2009). 2011-08-03 SpaceRef announces creation of Space Quarterly Magazine (SpaceRef, 2011).

3.0 PROPRIETARY FUNCTIONS

3.1 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS 3.1.1 Applied R&D 1999-01-26 SC receives patent for Method of manufacturing composite articles (Patent No. USOO5863365A, 1999) 1999-02-16 Rocketplane Global receives patent for Reusable rocket airplane (Patent No. USOOD405750S, 1999). 1999-11-02 SC receives patent for Aircraft with removable structural payload module (Rutan, 1999) 2000-08-29 SC receives patent for Composite structural panel having a face sheet reinforced with a channel stiffener grid (Patent No. USOO6110567A, 2000) 2000-09-19 Rocketplane Global receives patent for Reusable rocket-propelled high altitude airplane and method and apparatus for mid-air oxidizer transfer to said airplane (Patent No. USOO611.9985A, 2000). 2001-03-27 SC receives patent for Fabrication of structure having structural layers and layers of controllable electrical, or magnetic properties (Patent No. USOO6207003B1, 2001) 2001-08-21 SC receives patent for Tensioned structural composite joint (Patent No. USOO6276866B1, 2001) 2006-10-05 XCOR receives patent for Process for producing continuous fiber reinforced thermoplastic composites (Patent No. US 20060222811A1, 2006) 2007-08-23 RR receives patent for Rocket-powered vehicle racing information system (Patent No. US 20070 1941.71 A1, 2007) 2007-10-30 RR receives patent for Rocket-powered vehicle racing competition (Patent No. USOO7287722B2, 2007) 2008-09-11 RR receives patent for Collection and distribution system (Patent No. US 20080221745A1, 2008) 2008-10-23 XCOR receives patent for Vehicles incorporating tanks for carrying cryogenic fluids and methods for forming such tanks (Patent No. US 2008025.6960A1, 2008) 2010-01-28 TSC receives patent for Composite flight control cables (Patent No. US 20100019082A1, 2010) 2010-03-23 TSC receives patent for Aircraft/spacecraft combination (Patent No. USOOD612317S, 2010) 2010-03-30 TSC receives patent for Aircraft (Patent No. USOOD612791S, 2010). 2010-04-22 RR receives patent for Rocket-powered entertainment vehicle (Patent No. US 2010 0096491A1, 2010) 2010-08-31 XCOR receives patent for Partial superheat cycle for operating a pump in a rocket system (Patent No. USOO7784268B1, 2010) 2010-08-31 XCOR receives patent for System and method for cooling rocket engines (Patent No. USOO7784269B1, 2010) 2010-10-19 TSC receives patent for Spacecraft (Patent No. USOOD62.5679S, 2010) 2010-12-16 Blue Origin receives patent for Predicting and correcting trajectories (Patent No. US 20100314487A1, 2010). 2010-12-21 XCOR receives patent for Rocket combustion chamber with jacket (Patent No. US007854395B1, 2010) 2010-12-30 Blue Origin receives patent for Bidirectional control surfaces for use with high speed vehicles, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20100327107A1, 2010). 2010-12-30 Blue Origin receives patent for Multiple-use rocket engines and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20100326.045A1, 2010).

10 5-Jul-20 2011-01-27 Blue Origin receives patent for Sea landing of space launch vehicles and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20110017872A1, 2011). 2011-03-08 XCOR receives patent for Micro-coaxial injector for rocket engine (Patent No. US00790.0435B1, 2011) 2011-05-12 Blue Origin receives patent for Contoured roller system and associated methods and resulting articles of manufacture (Patent No. US 2011 01 07808A1, 2011). 2011-12-15 Blue Origin receives patent for Eyeball seals for gimbaled rocket engines, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 2011 0302905A1, 2011). 2012-07-12 XCOR receives patent for High-speed check valve suitable for cryogens and high reverse pressure (Patent No. US 20120177510A1, 2012) 2012-11-29 Blue Origin receives patent for Inflatable ring for supporting friction welding workpieces, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20120298725A1, 2012). 2013-04-02 Blue Origin receives patent for Launch vehicles with fixed and deployable deceleration surfaces, and/or shaped fuel tanks, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. USOO8408497B2, 2013). 2013-04-23 Blue Origin receives patent for Compensating for wind prior to engaging airborne propulsion devices (Patent No. USOO8424808B2, 2013). 2014-09-18 Blue Origin receives patent for Launch vehicles with ring-shaped external elements, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20140263841A1, 2014). 2015-07-14 Blue Origin receives patent for Composite structures for aerospace vehicles, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US009079674B1, 2015). 2015-12-22 Blue Origin receives patent for Rocket turbopump valves and associated systems and methods (Patent No. USOO921 7389B1, 2015). 2017-12-07 Blue Origin receives patent for Severe weather agility thrusters, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US20170349301A, 2017). 2018-06-28 Blue Origin receives patent for Vertical landing systems for space vehicles and associated methods (Patent No. US20180178930A1, 2018). 3.1.2 Manufacturing 3.1.3 Testing 2002-08-01 SC WK1 first flight (Scaled Composites, 2004b). 2002-11-21 SC SS1 first rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2003a). 2003-05-20 SC SS1 first captive carry flight under WK1 (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2003-05-21 SC SS1 ground tests started (Scaled Composites, 2003b). 2003-08-07 SC SS1 first glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2003-08-27 SC SS1 third (final) captive carry flight under WK1 (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2003-10-21 SC SS1 ground tests concluded (Scaled Composites, 2003b). 2003-11-18 SC SS1 twelfth (final) rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2003a). 2003-12-17 SC SS1 first powered test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-03-11 SC SS1 eighth (final) glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-06-14 SC WK1 fifty-ninth (final) test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004b). 2004-06-21 SC SS1 first powered flight to 100km (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-09-29 SC SS1 successfully makes first X PRIZE flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-10-04 SC SS1 sixth (final) powered test flight to win the X PRIZE (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2005-03-05 Blue Origin Charon first flight test (Seattle Museum of Flight, 2018). 2006-11-13 Blue Origin Goddard conducts first flight test (J. Bezos, 2018). 2007-03-22 Blue Origin Goddard conducts second flight test (Gunter’s Space Page, 2017). 2007-04-19 Blue Origin Goddard conducts third (final) test flight (CrustySeaDog, 2018). 2007-07-26 Three Scaled Composites employees dead in tank explosion (David, 2007b) 2008-12-21 VG WK2 first flight test (without SS2) (Scaled Composites, 2014c) 2009-04-20 VG SS2(E) first rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2014a).

5-Jul-20 11 2010-03-22 VG SS2(E) first captive carry test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2010-10-10 VG SS2(E) first glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2011-05-06 Blue Origin PM2 first flight test (Blue Origin, 2013; CrustySeaDog, 2018). 2011-08-24 Blue Origin PM2 second (final) test flight ends in explosion (Boyle, 2011; CrustySeaDog, 2018). 2011-11-09 SwRI personnel test pressure suits (Southwest Research Institute, 2011). 2012-07-16 VG SS2(E) sixteenth (final) captive carry test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2013-04-12 VG SS2(E) first cold flow flight test (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2013-04-29 VG SS2(E) first powered test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2014-04-12 VG WK2 ninety-seventh (final) flight test (without SS2(E)) (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2014-08-28 VG SS2(E) second (final) cold flow flight test (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2014-10-07 VG SS2(E) thirtieth (final) glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2014-10-09 VG SS2(E) fifty-seventh (final) rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2014a). 2014-10-31 VG SS2(E) fourth (final) powered test flight, that ended in vehicle breakup, killing the co- pilot, and severely injuring the pilot (Malik, 2014). 2015-04-29 Blue Origin New Shepard One (NS1) first (final) flight test ends in loss of vehicle (CrustySeaDog, 2018; Howell, 2018). 2015-11-23 Blue Origin New Shepard Two (NS2) first flight test (Howell, 2018). 2016-10-05 Blue Origin NS2 fifth (final) flight test (Gunter’s Space Page, 2018; Howell, 2018). 2016-09-08 VG SS2(U) first captive carry flight test (Malik, 2016). 2016-11-30 VG SS2(U) completes fourth (final) captive carry flight test (SpaceFlight Insider, 2016). 2016-12-03 VG SS2(U) first glide flight test (Foust, 2016d). 2017-12-12 Blue Origin NS3 first flight test (Foust, 2013). 2018-01-11 VG SS2(U) seventh (final) glide flight test (Virgin Galactic, 2018). 2018-04-05 VG SS2(U) first powered flight test to 25.7 km (Wall, 2018a). 2018-04-29 Blue Origin NS3 second flight test (Harwood, 2018) 2018-05-29 VG SS2(U) second powered flight test to 34.9 km (Wall, 2018b). 2018-07-18 Blue Origin NS3 third flight test (Clark, 2018). 2018-07-26 VG SS2(U) third powered flight test to 52.1 km (Doubek, 2018). 2018-12-13 VG SS2(U) fourth powered flight test to 82.7 km (O’Collaghan, 2018). 2019-01-23 Blue Origin NS3 fourth flight test (Wall, 2019) 2019-02-22 VG SS2(U) fifth powered flight test to 89.9 km (Bartels, 2019).

3.2 INNOVATION NETWORK AND RESOURCE CHANNEL ACTIVITIES 3.2.1 Appropriation of Common Goods 2015-11-23 XCOR co-founders leave company (Foust, 2015a). 2016-05-27 XCOR lays off employees to focus on engine development (Foust, 2016a). 3.2.2 Vendor-Supplier-Distributor Channels 1990 NMSA Initial Proposal by Burton Lee (Matlock, 2013) 1992 Precursor to NMSA, Southwest Regional Spaceport Taskforce, created (Hil, 2006; McNiel, 2006). 1998 Mojave Air and Space Port started with Rotary Rocket agreement (cite missing). 2001-2004 Scaled Composites and Paul Allen establish Mojave Aerospace Ventures, MAV (Choi, 2014). 2002-03-23 Oklahoma Spaceport Grand Opening with Rocketplane agreement (May, 2002) 2005-04-15 Van Horn site select by Blue Origin for private spaceport (Harris, 2005) 2005-07-28 The Spaceship Company, SS2 manufacturing company, formed under partnership by Virgin Galactic (70% ownership) and Scaled Composites (30% ownership) (Howell, 2016; SpaceNews, 2012). 2006 JAA starts talking with Rocketplane (Lauer, 2017)

12 5-Jul-20 2006-04-04 NMSA Construction starts (Haussamen, 2006). 2012 NMSA Construction ends (Renter’a, 2011) 2012-06-07 VG opens office in Las Cruces, NM (Virgin Galactic, 2012). 2012-07-09 Midland Air Field signs deal with XCOR (Ballinger, 2012) 2012-10-08 VG acquires The Spaceship Company (SpaceNews, 2012). 2014-04-10 Ellington Field signs deal with Sierra Nevada Space (Painter, 2014) 2014-06-30 XCOR acquires Space Expedition Corp. (Barth, 2014). 2018-08-20 Front Range receives FAA spaceport license (Aguilar, 2018).

3.3 MARKET CREATION AND CONSUMER DEMAND 3.3.1 Marketing 2003-04-18 Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites introduces SpaceShipOne (Bostwick, 2003). 2004-12-07 Oracle/Space Adventures contest announced (Chellam, 2004). 2005-02-03 Volvo announces suborbital space tourism contest (Kelleher, 2005). 2005-02-06 Announcement of 7Up suborbital contest (Skeen, 2005). 2005-02-18 Nidar suborbital contest announced (De Keyser, 2005). 2005-03-24 Volvo/VG contest winner announced (McGhee, 2005). 2005-09-30 Quirk Books and Space Adventures flight contest (cite missing). 2005-10-05 GameTrust "edge of space" MIG 25 ride contest announced (cite missing). 2005-10-09 SpaceShot and Rocketplane skill game for flight contest (Armstrong, 2005). 2005-11-27 Plantronics contest announced (Plantronics, 2005). 2006-01-10 Oracle contest won by San Jose programmer and European (“Student to Be First Korean in Space,” 2006). 2006-01-18 GameTrust contest won (Twitchell, 2006). 2006-03-01 Space Tourism Wiki “Reach for the Stars Contest” contest (Wight, 2006). 2006-06-25 Opoly game with space flight prize announced (cite missing). 2006-11-18 “The Station” contest, suborbital flight for runner-up (Ellegood, 2006). 2006-11-25 galaxy32.com game suborbital flight is grand prize (Dempsey, 2006). 2006-12-06 Virgin Galactic an the Royal Aeronautical Society announce a contest to win a flight on SpaceShipTwo (“Win a flight on SpaceShipTwo from the Royal Aeronautical Society,” 2007). 2007-01-08 Windows and AMD announce Global Puzzle prize (“Cruise , travel shows coming to Tulsa , city,” 2007). 2007-02-01 Audi and New Scientist announce prize (“Your chance to win a place in space,” 2007). 2007-03-07 Australia suborbital contest (Murray, 2007). 2007-07-25 Gillette announces a suborbital spaceflight contest for Canadians (Christensen, 2007). 2007-09-03 Belgian suborbital spaceflight contest announced (cite missing). 2008-01-09 Century Race announced with few details (cite missing). 2008-01-24 India Bindass/Bingo Go To Space contest begins (“His own space,” 2008). 2008-03-25 XCOR announcement of Lynx vehicle project (Pasztor, 2008). 2008-05-23 Coconut Creek casino offers space travel prize (cite missing). 2008-07-28 VG unveils WhiteKnight2 (David, 2008b; Howell, 2016). 2008-09-10 Voyage2Space.com raffle announced (Fleming, 2008). 2009-02-25 Virgin Blue Airlines contest (cite missing). 2009-06-19 NMSA groundbreaking event (Kinney, 2009). 2009-07-01 Guinness announces suborbital ride contest (“Guinness offers drinkers chance to win space flight,” 2009). 2009-12-07 VG unveils second SpaceShipTwo (Howell, 2016; Paur, 2009b). 2010-05-02 InterCasino UK suborbital spaceflight contest (cite missing). 2010-11-13 Ares Institute announces suborbital contest (Klotz, 2010).

5-Jul-20 13 2011-03-15 TripAletrz.com Free Trip to Space contest (Drake, 2011). 2011-05-15 Peugeot offers suborbital space flight as top prize in 3008 Crossover vehicle competition (Peugeot Motor Company, 2011). 2011-06-22 7-Eleven launches suborbital flight sweepstakes (DeClemente, 2011). 2011-06-10 KSC Star Trek sweepstakes for XCOR flight (Farmer & McRae, 2011). 2011-06-13 NSS top Space Ambassador to receive VG SS2 flight (Brandt-Erichsen, 2011). 2011-08-03 SpaceRef announces creation of Space Quarterly Magazine (SpaceRef, 2011). 2011-10-23 Space Adventures/Red Gate Software contest (The Mill, 2011). 2011-11-15 XCOR/SwRI contest (XCOR, 2011). 2011-12-21 Red Gate DBA contest winner opts for cast in lieu of spaceflight (Redgate Software, 2011). 2012-01-25 Space Adventures donates suborbital flight to Guardian Angel Motorsports (Johnson, 2012). 2012-03-14 Metro news publisher announces contest with XCOR/SpaceXC in Curacao (Messier, 2012). 2012-05-07 Citizens in Space and XCOR announce challenge (Citizens in Space, 2012). 2012-05-10 I Dream of Space holds spaceflight drawing (Biberović, 2013). 2012-07-24 Virgin America announces frequent flier suborbital prize (Booth, 2012). 2012-09-15 VG announces they will fly one citizen from each NM county to space (Soular, 2012). 2013-04-13 KLM opens space tourism contest (KLM, 2013). 2013-05-07 VG raises ticket prices from $200K to $250K (Wall, 2013). 2013-09-30 London Evening Standard sponsors XCOR Lynx prize drawing (Prigg & Prynn, 2013). 2013-10-03 NBC to host "Space Race" reality show (Kramer, 2013). 2014-04-21 VG & Aabar Investments sponsor prize flight for UAE citizen (Cornwell, 2014). 2014-05-08 Urgency Network and XCOR offer prize flight on Lynx (McKinney, 2014). 2014-09-02 VG/Land Rover contest announced (Howell, 2014). 2014-10-31 Fandango/XCOR contest announced (Pomerantz, 2014). 2015-08-05 Kruger Crowne and One Young World sponsor Rising Star contest (One Young World, 2015). 2016-02-19 VG unveils second SpaceShipTwo (Foust, 2016b). 3.3.2 Cultural Norms 3.3.3 Consumer Demand 2005-01-02 VG to start ticket sales this year (Tozzi, 2005). 2005-04-27 VG has 100 paid deposits for SS2 rides (cite missing). 2005-10-05 VG has 178 tix/$10M (cite missing). 2005-12-12 VG announces 85 tickets sold (Sinclair, 2005). 2006-03-31 VG reports 157 tickets sold (Beveridge, 2006). 2006-08-18 Rocketplane selected for NASA COTS program (Baldwin, 2016). 2007-03-28 VG announces sales of 200 tickets (Watts, 2007). 2007-07-03 VG announces 200 ticket deposits sold (David, 2007a). 2007-09 Rocketplane fails to meet financial milestone, and is removed from the COTS program (Baldwin, 2016). 2008-01-28 VG article says about 200 ticket reservations sold, flights about 2 years away (Simmie, 2008). 2008-01-31 VG announces ticket number 190 sold (Horne, 2008). 2008-06-07 VG says it has sold 254 ticket reservations (David, 2008a). 2008-11-08 VG announces 280 tickets sold (Swant, 2008). 2009-03-30 VG announces 200 ticket deposits sold (T. Clark, 2009). 2009-09-11 VG announces 300 ticket reservations sold (Paur, 2009a). 2010-03-29 VG has taken is about $45M for 330 ticket reservations (Foley, 2010). 2010-08-30 NASA awards two contracts worth $475K to NGLLC winners (Steitz, 2010).

14 5-Jul-20 2010-11-30 VG announces 500 ticket reservations sold (Boyle, 2010). 2011-02-24 SwRI buys six XCOR Lynx flights (Gaherty, 2011). 2011-02-28 VG announces 400 ticket deposits received (Malik, 2011). 2011-05-13 NASA has selected 16 payloads for flights on the commercial Zero-G parabolic aircraft and two suborbital reusable launch vehicles (Alexander, 2011). 2011-08-12 NASA Selects 7 Firms for Suborbital Flight Contract worth up to $10M (Steitz, 2011). 2011-10-13 NASA awards Virgin Galactic a $4.5M contract for three SS2 research flights (Howell, 2016; Virgin Galactic, 2011). 2011-10-18 VG announces 450 ticket deposits sold (Wall, 2011). 2012-01-04 XCOR and VG have total of about 800 ticket reservations (Chang, 2012). 2012-03-20 VG has sold 500 ticket reservations for SS2 rides (Boyle, 2012). 2012-03-21 NASA selects 24 payloads for commercial suborbital flights (Steitz, 2012b). 2012-07-02 NASA invests $3.5M in 14 technology demonstration payloads (Steitz, 2012a). 2012-07-11 VG announces 529 ticket reservations (Coppinger, 2012). 2012-08-01 VG has sold 536 ticket reservations (U.S. Congress, 2012). 2012-08-24 NASA Selects Two Technologies For Commercial Suborbital Tests (Hoover, 2012). 2012-12-04 VG now has 560 ticket reservations (P. B. de Selding, 2012). 2012-12-28 VG announces sale of 530 tickets (Smart & Tinney, 2012). 2013-01-09 Unilever AXE brand buys 22 XCOR Lynx tickets for contest (Space.com, 2013). 2013-01-23 NASA Selects 13 Experimental Commercial Suborbital Flight Payloads (Steitz, 2013b) 2013-04-30 VG has sold 580 ticket reservations for SS2 rides (Wall, 2013). 2013-06-07 NASA selects 21 payloads for flight test (Steitz, 2013a). 2013-07-17 VG has 600th ticket reservation, more than $70M (“Virgin Galactic welcomes new era of women in spaceflight - Tehachapi News,” 2013). 2013-08-14 Space Expeditions Corp sold 230 ticket reservations on XCOR Lynx (Messier, 2013). 2013-08-16 NASA invests $2M in 10 technology demonstration payloads (Alexander, 2013). 2013-08-16 VG sold 640 ticket deposits (Carrington, 2013). 2013-10-01 More than 300 ticket reservations sold on XCOR Lynx (Foust, 2015b). 2013-11-10 VG announces 640 ticket reservations worth nearly $80M (Szondy, 2013). 2013-11-27 VG has nearly $80 million in deposits from approximately 640 individuals (Griffin Communications, 2013). 2014-01-27 VG sold 600 tickets (Vincent, 2014). 2014-03-05 VG sells ticket reservations 700 and 701 to Winkelvoss twins (Lobosco, 2014). 2014-03-30 VG announces sale of 700 tickets (Roosevelt, 2014). 2014-04-02 NASA Selects 13 New Suborbital Technology Payloads, Total Tops 130 (Conner, 2014). 2014-04-21 VG announces sale of 680 tickets (Cornwell, 2014). 2014-05-13 VG announces sale of 700 tickets (Chang, 2014). 2014-07-12 VG announces sale of 650 tickets (O. Smith, 2014). 2014-09-08 NASA Selects 4 Firms for Commercial Suborbital Flight Services (Northon, 2014). 2014-10-12 VG announces sale of 700 tickets (Knapton, 2014). 2015-04-22 NASA Selects 7 Payloads for suborbital flights (Conner, 2015). 2015-08-23 VG ticket reservation numbers return to 750 (Burn-Callander, 2015). 2015-11-18 NASA Selects 8 New Technologies for Suborbital Flight (Williams, 2015). 3.3.4 Competition 1995 Rocketplane enters HSSFP market (Lauer, 2017). 1997 Scaled Composites enters HSSFP market (cite missing). 1999 Richard Branson registers the name “Virgin Galactic” (Howell, 2016; La Vone, 2014; L. Smith, 2014). 1999-01-01 XCOR Aerospace founded (Copelin, 2014).

5-Jul-20 15 2000-01-01 Blue Origin founded (Davenport, 2016). 2001 Mojave Aerospace Ventures formed (cite missing). 2004-09-27 Public announcement of Virgin Galactic (Guardian, 2004). 2005-10-03 Rocket Racing League Announced (Malik, 2005). 2007-07-20 Northrop Grumman buys 100% of Scaled Composites (Daily Record, 2007). 2010-07-16 Xtraordinary Adventures & Rocketship Tours to sell XCOR rides (cite missing). 2010-08-07 Rocketplane files for bankruptcy (Palmer, 2010). 2012-10-05 Virgin Galactic takes full ownership of The Spaceship Company (TSC, 2012) 2012-07-06 XCOR to move to Midland, TX (cite missing). 2013-01-13 Rocketplane sold at auction for $25,000 (Palmer, 2013) 2015-08-06 XCOR leaves Mojave for Midland, TX (cite missing). 2017-11-09 XCOR Aerospace files for bankruptcy (Foust, 2017).

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32 5-Jul-20 Smart, G., & Tinney, A. (2012, December 28). I’ll make the Earth move for you, Kate. The Sun (England), p. 7. Smith, L. (2014, November 14). Can Virgin boldly go where few have gone ? Argus Weekend (South Africa), p. 12. Smith, O. (2014, July 12). Higher, farther, longer, faster; Oliver Smith looks at the future of air travel -from bunk beds and pilotless aircraft to one-hour transatlantic flights and once-in-a-lifetime journeys to the edge of space. The Daily Telegraph (London), p. 10,11. Soular, D. A. (2012, September 15). Virgin Galactic plans to keep promise of free space flight. Las Cruces Sun-News (New Mexico), p. NEWS. Las Cruces, NM. Southwest Research Institute. (2011). SwRI flyers first to evaluate pressure suits during simulated suborbital launches in centrifuge. Retrieved from https://www.swri.org/press-release/evaluate-pressure-suits-simulated-suborbital- launches Space.com. (2003). Dennis Tito Ready to Invest in Suborbital Rocket, But Wary of Gov’t Regulators. Retrieved June 23, 2019, from Space.com website: http://www.spacefuture.com/lists/sf-discuss/July-2003/msg00011.html Space.com. (2013). AXE Company Wants to Launch 22 People Into Space. Retrieved July 8, 2018, from Space.com website: https://www.space.com/19199-axe-apollo- space-launch-contest.html SpaceFlight Insider. (2016, December 1). Virgin Galactic conducts captive carry flight of SpaceShipTwo. SpaceFlight Insider. Retrieved from http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/commercial/virgin-galactic-conducts- captive-carry-flight-spaceshiptwo/ SpaceNews. (2012, October 16). Virgin Buys Out Scaled’s Share of Spaceship Co. SpaceNews.Com. Retrieved from https://spacenews.com/virgin-buys-out-scaleds- share-spaceship-co/ SpaceNews Staff. (2009). Former NASA Exec To Lead Suborbital Advisory Panel. Retrieved July 14, 2018, from SpaceNews.com website: https://spacenews.com/former-nasa-exec-lead-suborbital-advisory-panel/ SpaceRef. (2011). SpaceRef Launches New Magazine Space Quarterly and the SpaceRef Forum. Retrieved August 23, 2018, from www.spaceref.com website: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1559 State of California. Space flight liability and immunity act. , Pub. L. No. AB-2243 (2012). State of California. Space flight liability. , Pub. L. No. SB-415 (2014). State of California. Taxes: exemption: space flight property. , Pub. L. No. AB-777 (2014). State of Florida. Spaceflight; Informed consent. , Pub. L. No. SB 2438 (2008). State of Florida. Spaceport facilities. , Pub. L. No. SB 634 (2012). State of Florida. Spaceport Territory. , Pub. L. No. HB 59 (2012). State of Hawaii. Relating to tourism. , Pub. L. No. SB 112 (2012). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2005, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2005).

5-Jul-20 33 State of New Mexico. SEVERANCE TAX BOND PROJECTS, HB 885. , Pub. L. No. HB 885 (2005). State of New Mexico. SPACEPORT DEVELOPMENT ACT, HB 419. , Pub. L. No. HB 419 (2005). State of New Mexico. ABOLISH SPACE COMMISSION AND TRANSFER FUNCTIONS, HB 89. , Pub. L. No. HB 89, 15 (2006). State of New Mexico. CAPITAL OUTLAY PROJECT REAUTHORIZATIONS, SB 639. , Pub. L. No. SB 639 (2006). State of New Mexico. SEVERANCE TAX BOND PROJECTS, HB 622. , Pub. L. No. HB 622 (2006). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2007, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2007). State of New Mexico. MILITARY MISSION TRANSITION GROSS RECEIPTS, HB 839. , Pub. L. No. HB 839 (2007). State of New Mexico. SEVERANCE TAX BOND PROJECTS, SB 827. , Pub. L. No. SB 827 (2007). State of New Mexico. STATE AGENCY EXPENDITURES, SB 611. , Pub. L. No. SB 611 (2007). State of New Mexico. UNEXPENDED CAPITAL OUTLAY PROJECTS, SB 826. , Pub. L. No. SB 826 (2007). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2008, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2008). State of New Mexico. SEVERANCE TAX BOND PROJECTS, SB 471. , Pub. L. No. SB 471 (2008). State of New Mexico. STATE AGENCY EXPENDITURES, SB 165. , Pub. L. No. SB 165 (2008). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2009, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2009). State of New Mexico. NMFA PUBLIC PROJECT FUND LOANS, HB 76. , (2009). State of New Mexico. CAPITAL OUTLAY REVERSIONS FOR SOLVENCY, SB 182. , Pub. L. No. SB 182 (2010). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2010, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2010). State of New Mexico. Space Flight Informed Consent Act, SB 9. , Pub. L. No. SB 9 (2010). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2011, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2011). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2012, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2012). State of New Mexico. REAUTHORIZE PROJECTS, HB 190. , Pub. L. No. HB190 (2012). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2013, HB 2. , Pub. L. No.

34 5-Jul-20 HB 2 (2013). State of New Mexico. NMFA PUBLIC PROJECT REVOLVING FUND PROJECTS, HB 70. , Pub. L. No. HB 70 (2013). State of New Mexico. SEVERANCE TAX BOND PROJECTS, SB 60. , Pub. L. No. SB 60 (2013). State of New Mexico. Spaceflight informed consent act. , Pub. L. No. SB 240 (2013). State of New Mexico. 2014 WORK NM ACT- SEVERANCE TAX BOND PROJECTS, HB 55. , Pub. L. No. HB 55 (2014). State of New Mexico. CAPITAL OUTLAY REAUTHORIZATIONS, SB 163. , Pub. L. No. SB 163 (2014). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATIONS ACT OF 2014, SB 313. , Pub. L. No. SB 313 (2014). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2015, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2015). State of New Mexico. CAPITAL OUTLAY REAUTHORIZATIONS, SB 172. , Pub. L. No. SB 172 (2016). State of New Mexico. GENERAL APPROPRIATION ACT OF 2016, HB 2. , Pub. L. No. HB 2 (2016). State of New Mexico. SPACEPORT LIQUOR LICENSE, SB 147. , Pub. L. No. SB 147 (2016). State of Oklahoma. Oklahoma Space Industry Development Authority Creation. , Pub. L. No. SB720 (1999). State of Oklahoma. Space Vehicle R&D Tax Credit. , Pub. L. No. SB 55 (2001). State of Virginia. Space Flight Liability and Immunity Act; civil immunity for space flight entities. , Pub. L. No. HB 3184 (2007). State of Virginia. Relating to tax revenues generated by commercial spaceflight; Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority. , Pub. L. No. SB 1447 (2011). Steitz, D. E. (2010). NASA selects two firms for experimental space vehicle test flights. Retrieved March 8, 2016, from http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/aug/HQ_10-203_CRuSR_Awards.html Steitz, D. E. (2011). NASA selects seven firms to provide near-space flight services. Retrieved March 8, 2016, from http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2011/aug/HQ_11- 258_Flight_Opportunities.html Steitz, D. E. (2012a). NASA space tech program selects technologies for development and demonstration on suborbital flights. Retrieved March 8, 2016, from http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2012/jul/HQ_12- 221_Suborbital_Payloads_Selected.html Steitz, D. E. (2012b, July 6). Experimental payloads selected for commercial suborbital flights. Retrieved March 8, 2016, from http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2012/mar/HQ_12- 089_Experimental_Payloads_Flight_Opportunities.html

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