Lower Nox at Higher Altitudes Policies to Reduce the Climate Impact of Aviation Nox Emission
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CECE Delft Delft SolutionsSolutions for for environment,environment, economyeconomy and and technology technology Oude Delft 180 Oude Delft 180 2611 HH Delft The2611 Netherlands HH Delft tel:The +31 Netherlands 15 2 150 150 tel:fax: +31 +31 15 15 2150 2 150 150 151 fax: +31e-mail: 15 2150 [email protected] 151 website: www.ce.nl e-mail: [email protected] KvK 27251086 website: www.ce.nl KvK 27251086 Lower NOx at Higher Altitudes Policies to Reduce the Climate Impact of Aviation NOx Emission Report Delft, October 2008 Author(s): Jasper Faber Dan Greenwood David Lee Michael Mann Pablo Mendes de Leon Dagmar Nelissen Bethan Owen Malcolm Ralph John Tilston André van Velzen Gerdien van de Vreede Publication Data Bibliographical data: Jasper Faber, Dan Greenwood, David Lee, Michael Mann, Pablo Mendes de Leon, Dagmar Nelissen, Bethan Owen, Malcolm Ralph, John Tilston, André van Velzen, Gerdien van de Vreede Lower NOx at Higher Altitudes Policies to Reduce the Climate Impact of Aviation NOx Emission Delft, CE Delft, October 2008 Aviation / Nitrogen oxide / Development / History / Science / Technology / Regulation Publication number: 08.7536.32 CE Delft-publications are available from www.ce.nl. Commissioned by: European Commission, DG Energy and Transport under contract TREN/07/F3/S07.78699. Further information on this study can be obtained from the contact person Jasper Faber. © copyright, CE Delft, Delft CE Delft Solutions for environment, economy and technology CE Delft is an independent research and consultancy organisation specialised in developing structural and innovative solutions to environmental problems. CE Delfts solutions are characterised in being politically feasible, technologically sound, economically prudent and socially equitable. For the latest information on CE Delft check out our website: www.ce.nl. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. Preface This report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG Energy and Transport under contract TREN/07/F3/S07.78699. Ronny Rohart was the responsible project officer. During the project, the authors have benefitted from comments from stakeholders and experts. A full list is included in Appendix J. We express our gratitude to all the stakeholders who so generously gave their time, consideration and expert help. Any mistakes are, of course, only attributable to the authors. The authors Contents Short summary 1 Summary 3 1 Introduction 11 1.1 Background to this study 11 1.2 Policy Background 12 1.2.1 ICAO 12 1.2.2 European Commission 12 1.3 Outline of the study 13 1.4 Outline of the report 14 2 Problem definition 15 2.1 What is the issue or problem that may require action? 15 2.2 What are the underlying drivers of the problem? 15 2.3 How would the problem evolve, all things being equal? 16 3 Objectives 19 4 Climate impacts of aviation NOx emissions 21 4.1 Introduction 21 4.2 How do the climate impacts of aviation NOx emissions come about? 21 4.3 How can aviation NOx impacts be assessed? 25 4.4 How can aviation NOx impacts be related to those of CO2? 27 4.5 Can an aviation NOx GWP be used as a basis for policies? 30 4.6 Conclusions 31 5 Engine technology issues 33 5.1 The combustor within the aero-engine 33 5.2 Products of combustion 34 5.3 ICAO CAEP LTO NOx Standards Stringency 35 5.4 ICAO-CAEP 2007 Medium (10 year) and Long Term (20 year) LTO NOx Goals 38 5.5 Fundamentals of NOx formation 39 5.6 Engine NOx control strategies 41 5.7 Trade-offs involved in reducing NOx emissions 45 5.7.1 CO2 : NOx Trade-offs at the engine level 46 5.7.2 To what extent could fuel efficiency (CO2) improvements have been taken further in the absence of NOx controls? 47 5.7.3 Therefore can NOx : CO2 Trade-offs be ignored for future regulations? 47 5.7.4 The Impact of Future Engine Technologies on CO2 : NOx Trade-off 49 5.7.5 CO2 : NOx Trade-off at the whole aircraft level 52 5.7.6 NOx : Noise Trade-off 55 5.8 LTO NOx versus Cruise NOx 56 5.8.1 LTO NOx : Cruise NOx - Study Conclusions: 57 6 Policy options 61 6.1 Comprehensive list of policy options 61 6.2 Selection of options 63 6.3 Design of the LTO NOx charge 65 6.4 Design of the LTO NOx charge with distance factor 66 6.5 Design of the cruise NOx charge 68 6.6 Design of the inclusion of aviation NOx emissions in the EU ETS 68 6.7 Design of standards 69 6.7.1 EU LTO emissions standards? 70 6.8 Design of the precautionary emissions multiplier 71 6.9 Conclusion 71 7 Evaluation of policy options 73 7.1 Some general considerations 73 7.1.1 Revenue neutrality of environmental charges - the pros and cons 73 7.1.2 Financial impacts of revenue raising charges 76 7.1.3 Environmental impact of revenue neutral charges 77 7.2 LTO NOx charge 77 7.3 LTO NOx charge with a distance factor 79 7.4 Cruise NOx charge 81 7.5 Inclusion of aviation NOx emissions in the EU ETS 82 7.6 ICAO LTO NOx Standards 83 7.7 Precautionary emissions multiplier 85 8 Comparing the options 89 8.1 Introduction 89 8.2 Impacts on the climate impact of aviation NOx emissions 89 8.3 Costs and cost-effectiveness 90 8.4 Feasibility of implementation 92 8.5 Legal feasibility 93 8.6 Feasibility and legality of enforcement 94 8.7 Environmental co-benefits and negative trade-offs 94 8.8 Impacts on specific market segments of aviation 95 9 Conclusions 97 References 99 A Current and future NOx emissions 111 B Selection of policy options 135 C Design of selected policy options 153 D Impacts analysis of market based instruments 179 E Impact analysis of standard based instruments 197 F Legal analysis 201 G Route Charge System of EUROCONTROL 219 H The co-efficient of correlation in the LTO NOx charge with a distance factor223 I Airport experience with LTO NOx charges 229 J Stakeholder consultation process 239 Short summary This report sets out to design and evaluate policy instruments that address the climate impact of aviation NOx emissions. It is well established scientifically that cruise NOx emissions cause a significant part of the current total climate impact of aviation. At present, LTO NOx emissions are controlled but cruise NOx emissions are not, and they grow roughly at the same pace as air traffic. After a review of the scientific literature, a comprehensive overview of NOx formation and control technologies and the environmental trade-offs, and an elaborate policy analysis, this report concludes that it will take around three to five years to provide robust scientific input for potential policy instruments that are both well founded in scientific evidence and provide the right incentives to reduce emissions both in the short term and in the long term. The two main issues that will have to be resolved before such an instrument can be developed are: − Establish a value for a policy-relevant metric for aviation NOx climate impact, such as a GWP for NOx. − Either establish a way to model cruise NOx emissions or quantify the relationship between LTO and cruise emissions in a sufficiently robust way. Both issues should be capable of being resolved in three to five years, given sufficient study. In the meantime, the analysis perfomed for this report shows that the policy instruments that could be introduced would either have very limited environmental impacts but a solid scientific foundation, or a questionable scientific basis but a significant impact. An LTO NOx charge, introduced at European airports would primarily be a local air quality instrument, reducing NOx emissions in the vicinity of airports. It would have a very small co-benefit on NOx emissions at altitude. However, it may be perceived as an inequitable climate policy instrument, as the short haul flights that have a low contribution to the climate impact will pay most of the charge. It would be feasible to implement technically and legally. An LTO NOx charge with a distance factor would need a good policy instrument to reduce the climate impact of NOx. Before it can be implemented, however, there needs to be a thorough assessment of the relationship between LTO and cruise emissions. A methodology already exists for the determination of this relationship but it is only applicable to current technology engines since it is empirical, and a more physically-based relationship would be required for this policy application so that future technologies could be robustly modelled. Moreover, it needs a well founded basis for the level of the charge, i.e. a value of the GWP of aviation NOx. The legal basis for the instrument could be strengthened if international agreement could be reached on this value. New engine technology may lead to the breakdown of the existing relationship between LTO and cruise emissions. If this would occur, the environmental impacts of the charge could be reduced. 7.536.1/Lower NOx at Higher Altitudes 1 October, 2008 A cruise NOx charge would be the best instrument to address cruise NOx emissions, but it cannot be currently implemented since cruise NOx emissions can neither be monitored nor modelled by a widely accepted method using publicly available data although manufacturers do possess the necessary information. Moreover, it needs a value for the GWP of NOx. Inclusion of aviation NOx emissions in the EU ETS would need the determination of a method to calculate NOx emissions.