DOCSLIB.ORG

A Coordination-Based Approach to Subnational Variations in Split- Ticket Voting: the Case of Ghana 1996-2016

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
A Coordination-Based Approach to Subnational Variations in Split- Ticket Voting: the Case of Ghana 1996-2016 Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports 2019 A Coordination-Based Approach to Subnational Variations in Split- Ticket Voting: The Case of Ghana 1996-2016 Samuel Kofi Darkwa West Virginia University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd Part of the Comparative Politics Commons Recommended Citation Darkwa, Samuel Kofi, A" Coordination-Based Approach to Subnational Variations in Split-Ticket Voting: The Case of Ghana 1996-2016" (2019). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 4065. https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/4065 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by the The Research Repository @ WVU with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you must obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in WVU Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports collection by an authorized administrator of The Research Repository @ WVU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A Coordination-Based Approach to Subnational Variations in Split-Ticket Voting: The Case of Ghana 1996-2016 Samuel Kofi Darkwa Dissertation submitted to the John D. Rockefeller IV School of Policy and Politics within the Eberly College of Arts and Sciences at West Virginia University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Erik Herron, Ph.D., Chair Matthew Jacobsmeier, Ph.D. Mason Moseley, Ph.D. Jay Krehbiel, Ph.D. Tamba M’bayo, Ph.D Department of Political Science Morgantown, West Virginia 2019 Keywords: Split-ticket voting, skirt and blouse voting, elite coordination, inter and intraparty coordination, Ghana, democracy Copyright 2019 Samuel Kofi Darkwa Abstract A Coordination-Based Approach to Subnational Variations in Split-Ticket Voting: The Case of Ghana 1996-2016 Samuel K. Darkwa This dissertation seeks to explain the causes of split-ticket voting (skirt and blouse voting) in emerging democracies like Ghana. The analysis carried out here has been approached at three levels. This is because voters’ decisions in the voting booth are affected by factors within the larger political environment which are often beyond the individual voter. Thus, the three approaches employed here consider individual-level, constituency-level, and elite-level factors that affect the phenomenon. In each case different datasets were used to examine split-ticket voting. The analysis reveals that the individual-level factors (demographic characteristics and political information variables) are weak in explaining ticket splitting. Aside from their statistically weak relationship with ticket splitting, they are inconsistent in explaining the phenomenon. The most important factors shaping split-ticket voting, however, operate at the elite-level, and are coordination based. Using the Afrobarometer survey, constituency level electoral data, and a fieldwork survey, the analysis finds elite-level factors which are based on coordination successes and failures within and between parties as the best predictors of ticket splitting. The reason for this is that elite coordination successes and failures affect the available choice sets at any given election and these largely affect ticket splitting. I argue that differences in ticket splitting are better explained by variation in the degree of coordination among elite actors than by variation in characteristics of individual voters such as political sophistication. Samuel K. Darkwa Dedication I would like to dedicate this work to my sweet wife Betty and my three beautiful daughters; Onyame Animuonyam, Onyame Nhyira and Onyame Nkunimdie for their patience and understanding that made it possible for me to spend long hours working on this Dissertation. Sweetheart, I am extremely grateful to you for your invaluable support in this project. I also dedicate this dissertation to the memory of my mother, Ruth Adwoa Donkor whose stern training toughened me and built in me character and zeal. It was unfortunate she did not live to see this day she most cherished. Her untimely death happened while I was out here pursuing my graduate studies and could not travel back to pay her my last respect. I will forever remember her for her principles and sternness balanced with love. iii Samuel K. Darkwa Acknowledgements First and foremost, I give thanks to the Lord God Almighty for bringing me thus far in my education and research – He picked me from ashes and set my foot upon a Rock; I am forever grateful! Special thanks go to my Committee Chair, Professor Erik Herron, of the Department of Political Science at West Virginia University whose meticulousness during the supervision brought a lot of difference to this work. Indeed, without his considerable academic support I could never have completed this Dissertation. Thanks also go to the other members of my Dissertation Committee; Prof. Matthew Jacobsmeier (Director of Graduate Studies, Department of Political Science), Professor Tamba M’bayo (Department of History), Professor Jay Krehbiel and Professor Mason Moseley (both at the Department of Political Science) whose valuable critique made this work a success. Special thanks also go to my boss, Mrs. Jean Mensa, the Commissioner of Electoral Commission of Ghana (former Executive Director of the IEA Ghana) for providing me office space during my field trip to Ghana and for linking me with most of my research subjects who are political heavy weights in Ghana. She really made it easy for me to collect the critical data for this project and beyond. I am also indebted to Professor Bossman Asare, the Deputy Commissioner of Electoral Commission of Ghana who was then the Chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Ghana, Legon. He granted me interview and connected me with student leaders and important stakeholders in Ghanaian electoral politics. Last but not the least, I am especially grateful to the pastors and the leadership of the Dispensational Gospel Mission Ghana for their mentoring role in my life. I am most grateful to Rev. Edward Frempong, who identified the potential in me and encouraged me to go to high school at a time I had no hope for high school education let alone college education. He is God sent and I am grateful to him for allowing God to use him to transform my life and that of many. Posterity will remember him for good. iv Samuel K. Darkwa Table of Contents Abstract Dedication iii Acknowledgements iv Table of Contents v List of Tables vi List of Figures vii List of Appendixes viii CHAPTER 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Introduction 4 1.2 Definition for Ticket Splitting 4 1.2.1 Working Definition for Ticket Splitting 5 1.3 A Brief Review of the Ticket Splitting Literature 7 1.4 Distinction between Split-Ticket Voting and Strategic Voting 16 1.5 General Overview of the Dissertation 19 1.6 References 20 1.7 Notes 25 CHAPTER 2. DEVELOPING A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 27 2.1 Introduction 27 2.2 Strategic Coordination Theory 28 2.3 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Theory 36 2.4 Why Ghana 38 2.5 References 39 2.6 Notes 41 CHAPTER 3. INDIVIDUAL LEVEL OF ANALYSIS 42 3.1 Chapter Introduction 42 3.2 Theories on Ticket Splitting at the Individual Level 45 3.3 Data and Measurement 61 3.4 Estimation Strategy for Voter Choice under Coordination Theory 68 3.5 Conclusion 82 3.6 References 84 v Samuel K. Darkwa 3.7 Notes 90 CHAPTER 4. AGGREGATE LEVEL OF ANALYSIS 103 4.1 Chapter Introduction 103 4.2 Theories on Ticket Splitting and Split Constituency Outcome 110 4.3 Data and Measurement 124 4.4 Estimation Strategy for Skirt and Blouse Outcome under Coordination Theory 129 4.5 Conclusion 141 4.6 References 144 4.7 Notes 151 CHAPTER 5. ELITE LEVEL OF ANALYSIS 154 5.1 Chapter Introduction 154 5.2 Discoveries from the Fieldwork 157 5.3 Strategic Coordination Theory 166 5.4 Alternative Explanations 177 5.5 Data and Measurement 182 5.6 Modeling Intraparty/Interparty Coordination Theory 190 5.7 Conclusion 202 5.8 References 207 5.9 Notes 211 CHAPTER 6. 214 6.1 Findings from the Research 214 6.2 Contribution to the Split-Ticket Voting Literature 218 6.3 Limitations of the Research 219 6.4 Recommendations for Future Research in the Subfield 221 6.5 References 224 List of Tables Table 1.1: Ticket Splitting Across Offices and Time 5 Table 2.1: Observable Indicators of Intraparty Coordination and Possible Impact on Splitting 33 Table 2.2: Observable Indicators of Interparty Coordination and Possible Impact on Splitting 35 Table 3.1: Respondents' Closeness to the Legislative Candidates 64 vi Samuel K. Darkwa Table 3.2: Respondents' Closeness to the Presidential Candidates 64 Table 3.3: Actual Performance of Presidential & Legislative Candidates in 2016 Elections 64 Table 3.4: Logit Analysis of Skirt and Blouse Voting with missing data 71 Table 3.5: Logit Analysis of Skirt and Blouse Voting with multiple imputation 72 Table 3.6: Effect of Changing Variables from Their Minimum to Maximum Values on 74 Probability of Ticket Splitting Table 4.1: Descriptive Statistics of Disputed Primaries in Parliamentary Elections 127 (1996 – 2016) Table 4.2: Logit Analysis of Skirt & Blouse Outcome (Control Variables Only) 131 Table 4.3: Logit Analysis of Skirt & Blouse Outcome (Independent Variables Only) 132 Table 4.4: Logit Analysis of Skirt & Blouse Outcome Using Aggregate Electoral Data (All Variables) 133 Table 4.5: Logit Analysis of Skirt & Blouse Outcome Using Aggregate Electoral Data 1996- 2016 (With Year Dummies) 134 Table 4.6: Effect of Changing Variables from their Minimum to Maximum Values on Probability of Ticket Splitting 135 Table 4.7: Percentage of Split Constituencies vs.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Black Box Voting Ballot Tampering in the 21St Century
    This free internet version is available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org Black Box Voting — © 2004 Bev Harris Rights reserved to Talion Publishing/ Black Box Voting ISBN 1-890916-90-0. You can purchase copies of this book at www.Amazon.com. Black Box Voting Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century By Bev Harris Talion Publishing / Black Box Voting This free internet version is available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org Contents © 2004 by Bev Harris ISBN 1-890916-90-0 Jan. 2004 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form whatsoever except as provided for by U.S. copyright law. For information on this book and the investigation into the voting machine industry, please go to: www.blackboxvoting.org Black Box Voting 330 SW 43rd St PMB K-547 • Renton, WA • 98055 Fax: 425-228-3965 • [email protected] • Tel. 425-228-7131 This free internet version is available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org Black Box Voting © 2004 Bev Harris • ISBN 1-890916-90-0 Dedication First of all, thank you Lord. I dedicate this work to my husband, Sonny, my rock and my mentor, who tolerated being ignored and bored and galled by this thing every day for a year, and without fail, stood fast with affection and support and encouragement. He must be nuts. And to my father, who fought and took a hit in Germany, who lived through Hitler and saw first-hand what can happen when a country gets suckered out of democracy. And to my sweet mother, whose an- cestors hosted a stop on the Underground Railroad, who gets that disapproving look on her face when people don’t do the right thing.
    [Show full text]
  • A Decline in Ticket Splitting and the Increasing Salience of Party Labels
    A Decline in Ticket Splitting and The Increasing Salience of Party Labels David C. Kimball University of Missouri-St. Louis Department of Political Science St. Louis, MO 63121-4499 [email protected] forthcoming in Models of Voting in Presidential Elections: The 2000 Elections, Herbert F. Weisberg and Clyde Wilcox, eds. Stanford University Press. Thanks to Laura Arnold, Brady Baybeck, Barry Burden, Paul Goren, Tim Johnson, Bryan Marshall, Rich Pacelle, Rich Timpone, Herb Weisberg and Clyde Wilcox for comments. The voice of the people is but an echo chamber. The output of an echo chamber bears an inevitable and invariable relation to the input. As candidates and parties clamor for attention and vie for popular support, the people's verdict can be no more than a selective reflection from among the alternatives and outlooks presented to them. (Key 1966, p. 2) Split party control of the executive and legislative branches has been a defining feature of American national politics for more than thirty years, the longest period of frequent divided government in American history. Even when voters failed to produce a divided national government in the 2000 elections, the party defection of a lone U.S. senator (former Republican James Jeffords of Vermont) created yet another divided national government. In addition, the extremely close competitive balance between the two major parties means that ticket splitters often determine which party controls each branch of government. These features of American politics have stimulated a lot of theorizing about the causes of split-ticket voting. In recent years, the presence of divided government and relatively high levels of split ticket voting are commonly cited as evidence of an electorate that has moved beyond party labels (Wattenberg 1998).
    [Show full text]
  • Download Date 28/09/2021 19:08:59
    Ghana: From fragility to resilience? Understanding the formation of a new political settlement from a critical political economy perspective Item Type Thesis Authors Ruppel, Julia Franziska Rights <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by- nc-nd/3.0/88x31.png" /></a><br />The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a <a rel="license" href="http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/">Creative Commons Licence</a>. Download date 28/09/2021 19:08:59 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10454/15062 University of Bradford eThesis This thesis is hosted in Bradford Scholars – The University of Bradford Open Access repository. Visit the repository for full metadata or to contact the repository team © University of Bradford. This work is licenced for reuse under a Creative Commons Licence. GHANA: FROM FRAGILITY TO RESILIENCE? J.F. RUPPEL PHD 2015 Ghana: From fragility to resilience? Understanding the formation of a new political settlement from a critical political economy perspective Julia Franziska RUPPEL Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities University of Bradford 2015 GHANA: FROM FRAGILITY TO RESILIENCE? UNDERSTANDING THE FORMATION OF A NEW POLITICAL SETTLEMENT FROM A CRITICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE Julia Franziska RUPPEL ABSTRACT Keywords: Critical political economy; electoral politics; Ghana; political settle- ment; power relations; social change; statebuilding and state formation During the late 1970s Ghana was described as a collapsed and failed state. In contrast, today it is hailed internationally as beacon of democracy and stability in West Africa.
    [Show full text]
  • IN the UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT for the MIDDLE DISTRICT of NORTH CAROLINA LEAGUE of WOMEN VOTERS of NORTH CAROLINA, Et Al
    IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE MIDDLE DISTRICT OF NORTH CAROLINA LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF NORTH CAROLINA, et al., Plaintiffs, Civil Action No. 1:13-CV-660 RULE 26(A)(2)(B) EXPERT v. REPORT AND DECLARATION OF THEODORE T. ALLEN, PhD THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA, et al., Defendants. I. INTRODUCTION 1. I have been retained by Plaintiffs’ Counsel as an expert witness in the above- captioned case. Plaintiffs’ Counsel requested that I offer my opinions as to: (1) whether HB 589, if it had been in effect in the most recent general election in North Carolina, would have caused longer lines at polling places and longer average waiting times to vote; and (2) the possible effect of such waiting times, if any, on voter turnout. As explained below, I conclude that eliminating seven days of early voting before the 2012 election would have caused waiting times to vote on Election Day in North Carolina to increase substantially, from a low-end estimate of an average of 27 minutes, to a worst-case scenario of an average of 180 minutes of waiting. Moreover, I further conclude that, as a result of longer lines, a significant number of voters would have been deterred from voting on Election Day in 2012 (with a conservative estimate of several thousand). Finally, I conclude that, barring some additional changes to the law or to the resources allocated to polling places, HB 589’s reductions to early voting are likely to result in longer average waiting times to vote in future elections.
    [Show full text]
  • The Many Faces of Strategic Voting
    Revised Pages The Many Faces of Strategic Voting Strategic voting is classically defined as voting for one’s second pre- ferred option to prevent one’s least preferred option from winning when one’s first preference has no chance. Voters want their votes to be effective, and casting a ballot that will have no influence on an election is undesirable. Thus, some voters cast strategic ballots when they decide that doing so is useful. This edited volume includes case studies of strategic voting behavior in Israel, Germany, Japan, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland, Canada, and the United Kingdom, providing a conceptual framework for understanding strategic voting behavior in all types of electoral systems. The classic definition explicitly considers strategic voting in a single race with at least three candidates and a single winner. This situation is more com- mon in electoral systems that have single- member districts that employ plurality or majoritarian electoral rules and have multiparty systems. Indeed, much of the literature on strategic voting to date has considered elections in Canada and the United Kingdom. This book contributes to a more general understanding of strategic voting behavior by tak- ing into account a wide variety of institutional contexts, such as single transferable vote rules, proportional representation, two- round elec- tions, and mixed electoral systems. Laura B. Stephenson is Professor of Political Science at the University of Western Ontario. John Aldrich is Pfizer- Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. André Blais is Professor of Political Science at the Université de Montréal. Revised Pages Revised Pages THE MANY FACES OF STRATEGIC VOTING Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems Around the World Edited by Laura B.
    [Show full text]
  • The Party Ticket States
    Voting Viva Voce UNLOCKING THE SOCIAL LOGIC OF PAST POLITICS How the Other Half (plus) Voted: The Party Ticket States DONALD A. DEBATS sociallogic.iath.virginia.edu How the Other Half (plus) Voted: The Party Ticket States | Donald A. DeBats 1 Public Voting How the Other Half (plus) Voted: The Party Ticket States by The alternative to oral voting was the party-produced ticket system that slowly Donald A. DeBats, PhD came to dominate the American political landscape. In states not using viva voce voting, political parties produced their preferred list of candidates and made Residential Fellow, Virginia Foundation for that list available to voters as a printed “ticket” distributed at each polling the Humanities, place on Election Day. Before Election Day, facsimiles of party tickets appeared University of Virginia in the party-run newspapers. Increasingly often, tickets were mailed to likely Head, American Studies, supporters to remind them of the party’s candidates and how to vote when Flinders University, Australia they came to the polls. The voter came forward from the throng and joined a line or ascended a platform where he was publicly and officially identified, just as in a viva voce election. But instead of reading or reciting a list of names he held out the party-produced Cover and opposite These three Republican Party tickets are from the years of the Civil War and reflect the Party’s rise in the states of the Old Northwest and the far West. All three tickets are brightly colored and are strongly associated with the preservation of the Union.
    [Show full text]
  • Abstention in the Time of Ferguson Contents
    ABSTENTION IN THE TIME OF FERGUSON Fred O. Smith, Jr. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 2284 I. OUR FEDERALISM FROM YOUNG TO YOUNGER ........................................................ 2289 A. Our Reconstructed Federalism ...................................................................................... 2290 B. Our Reinvigorated Federalism ...................................................................................... 2293 C. Our Reparable Federalism: Younger’s Safety Valves .................................................. 2296 1. Bad Faith ................................................................................................................... 2297 2. Bias .............................................................................................................................. 2300 3. Timeliness ................................................................................................................... 2301 4. Patent Unconstitutionality ....................................................................................... 2302 D. Our Emerging “Systemic” Exception? ......................................................................... 2303 II. OUR FERGUSON IN THE TIME OF OUR FEDERALISM ............................................. 2305 A. Rigid Post-Arrest Bail .................................................................................................... 2308 B. Incentivized Incarceration............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Democratic Development and the Public Sphere: the Rights to Hear and Be Heard in Ghana Duke Law School Seminar and Fact-Finding Trip to Ghana
    Duke Law Duke Law Scholarship Repository Duke Law Student Papers Series Student Works 5-21-2013 Democratic Development and the Public Sphere: The Rights to Hear and be Heard in Ghana Duke Law School Seminar and Fact-Finding Trip to Ghana Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/studentpapers Part of the African Languages and Societies Commons, Comparative and Foreign Law Commons, and the Politics and Social Change Commons Repository Citation Duke Law School Seminar and Fact-Finding Trip to Ghana, Democratic Development and the Public Sphere: The Rights to Hear and be Heard in Ghana (2013) This Other is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Works at Duke Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Duke Law Student Papers Series by an authorized administrator of Duke Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Democratic Development and the Public Sphere: The Rights to Hear and be Heard in Ghana Final Report of the Duke Law School Seminar and Fact-Finding Trip to Ghana May 21, 2013 1 Table of Contents I. Project Overview ............................................................................................................. 4 A. Freedom of Information in a Developing Nation .................................................................................................. 4 B. Class Objective and Overview ......................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • What Makes the Front Page News in an Election Year:A
    University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh WHAT MAKES THE FRONT PAGE NEWS IN AN ELECTION YEAR: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DAILY GRAPHIC AND DAILY GUIDE NEWSPAPERS, 2016. BY LINDA ENYONAM GOGOVI (10387115) THIS DISSERTATION IS SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF GHANA, LEGON IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF ARTS (MA) COMMUNICATION STUDIES DEGREE. OCTOBER, 2017 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DECLARATION I declare that except for references to other people’s work which have been duly acknowledged, this dissertation is as a result of my own research conducted at the Department of Communication Studies, University of Ghana, Legon. The work was supervised by Professor Audrey Gadzekpo …………………………………………………… LINDA ENYONAM GOGOVI M.A COMMUNICATION STUDIES (STUDENT) DATE: ...………………………………………… ………………………………………………… PROFESSOR AUDREY GADZEKPO (SUPERVISOR) DATE: …………………………………………………. i University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DEDICATION This work is dedicated to my adorable mother, Ruth Ama Gogovi for being a loving and praying mother, to my late father Godwin Kwesi Gogovi for inculcating in me the value of education and also to my Prophet Bishop Dag Heward-Mills, pastor of the Firstlove Church. Thank you for all the blessings spoken over my life. You are cherished. ii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I give praise to Darling Jesus Christ who provided me the grace, strength and help throughout my time of study and the writing of this dissertation. Writing of this study would have been impossible without Him. A big thank you to my supervisor Professor Audrey Gadzekpo for the time sacrificed to give valuable inputs and also to Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • NPP 2016 Manifesto
    NEW PATRIOTIC PARTY DEVELOPMENT IN FREEDOM HIGHLIGHTS ANCHANGE AGENDA FOR JOBS Creating Prosperity & Equal Opportunity for All NEW PATRIOTIC PARTY (NPP) MANIFESTO FOR ELECTION 2016 NEW PATRIOTIC PARTY DEVELOPMENT IN FREEDOM HIGHLIGHTS To be read in conjunction with the main manifesto ANCHANGE AGENDA FOR JOBS Creating Prosperity & Equal Opportunity for All NEW PATRIOTIC PARTY (NPP) MANIFESTO FOR ELECTION 2016 (The party’s) policy is to liberate the energies of the people for the growth of a property owning democracy in this land, with right to life, freedom and justice, as the principles to which the Government and laws of the land should be dedicated in order specifically to enrich life, property and liberty of each and every citizen. Dr. J. B. Danquah New Patriotic Party (NPP) • HIGHLIGHTS of Manifesto for Election 2016 MY VISION FOR GHANA Our nation is in crisis: a crisis created and sustained by the mismanagement, incompetence and corruption of the Mahama-led National Democratic Congress (NDC) government. Economic conditions are worsening by the day and there is so much suffering in the land. But Ghana does not have to be like this. Ghana deserves the best! I have dedicated my life to public service to change Ghana for good. As President, with the help of the Almighty God, I will be committed to a different kind of government, one that governs in the national interest, not for private gain. v New Patriotic Party (NPP) • HIGHLIGHTS of Manifesto for Election 2016 As I travel the country over the years, I see the pain and sacrifices made
    [Show full text]
  • Ground Truth Validation of Survey Estimates of Split-Ticket Voting With
    Ground Truth Validation of Survey Estimates of Split-Ticket Voting with Cast Vote Records Data∗ Alexander Agadjaniany Jonathan Robinsonz August 26, 2019 Abstract From signaling trends in nationalization and partisanship to clarifying preferences for divided government, split-ticket voting has received copious attention in political sci- ence. Important insights often rely on survey data, as they do among practitioners searching for persuadable voters. Yet it is unknown whether surveys accurately capture this behavior. We take advantage of a novel source of data to validate survey-based estimates of split-ticket voting. Cast vote records in South Carolina (2010-18) and Maryland (2016-18) provide anonymized individual level choices in all races on the ballot for every voter in each election, serving as the ground truth. We collect an array of public and private survey data to execute the comparison and calculate survey error. Despite expectations about partisan consistency pressures leading to survey underesti- mates, we find that surveys generally come close to the true split-ticket voting rates in our set of races. Accuracy varies, but notably is more consistent for split-ticket voting in a given dyad of national races (e.g., President vs. U.S. House) than in one with state races, as the former is often of greater interest in research and practice. ∗Prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Wash- ington, DC, August 29 { September 1, 2019. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2019 American Association for Public Opinion Research Conference (Toronto, Canada) on May 17, 2019.
    [Show full text]
  • University of Ghana
    University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh CHANGING FORMS OF POLITICAL COMMUNICATION AND VOTER CHOICES IN GHANA’S ELECTIONS, 1992-2008 BY KWAME ASAH-ASANTE THIS THESIS IS SUBMITTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF GHANA, LEGON, IN FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF PhD POLITICAL SCIENCE DEGREE JUNE, 2015 University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DECLARATION I certify that this thesis is, with the exception of specific quotations and references attributed to specified sources, my own original work, which I undertook at the Department of Political Science, University of Ghana, Legon, under the supervision of the undersigned. I bear personal responsibility for any limitation concerning the study. …………………………… Kwame Asah-Asante (Student) …………………………………….… Emeritus Prof Kwame Akon Ninsin (Lead Supervisor) ……………………………………….. Prof. Kwame Boafo-Arthur (Supervisor) ……………………………………….. Prof. Abeeku Essuman-Johnson (Supervisor) i University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to: The memory of my parents –Kofi Asah-Asante and Agnes Oforiwa Sabu —whose support and direction have brought me this far; My wife, Akosua Asah-Asante, for her encouragement, literary contribution and emotional prop which were inestimable; and My children, Kwasi Asah-Asante, Afua Oforiwa Asah-Asante, Kwaku Frempong Asah- Asante, who are required to go beyond what I have done. ii University of Ghana http://ugspace.ug.edu.gh ACKNOWLEDGMENT I wish, first of all, to express my profound gratitude to God for His grace in seeing me through one of the most challenging periods of my life, as I worked on this doctoral thesis. I must confess that, but for His invaluable support, this thesis would not have become a reality.
    [Show full text]