The International System in 2019: An Overview What should you take away from this presentation?

Defense Spending: A Snapshot;

Key Players in the Great Game;

Some Implications for the U.S. Army;

Parting Thoughts.

A presentation to the CGSC Class, Logistics University, Fort Lee, Douglas Macgregor, PhD (ret) U.S. Army Executive VP Burke-Macgregor Group LLC 28 January 2019 What should you take away from this presentation? “The purpose is clear. It is safety with solvency. The country is entitled to both.” President Dwight David Eisenhower, 1958

“By 2023 our nation is projected to spend more on servicing the public debt than on defense spending by over $20 billion.” Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., Defense News, 25 Jan. 2019

“… Our diplomacy of the first five decades of this century reflect… the lack of any accepted, enduring doctrine for relating military strength to political policy…” George F. Kennan, American Diplomacy, 1984

U.S. Defense Forces will have to be “right-sized” to the nation’s real security needs and interests without the inefficiencies and waste in the current U.S. defense structure. New, deeper financial crises may compel this change. Defense Spending

“The US spends almost as much on its military as all other countries in the world put together...” Alan MacLeod, Fair and Accuracy In Reporting, 20 December 2018. NATO and European Security

Ø Today, NATO has 28 members representing a population of more than 900 million;

Ø Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty says an “armed attack against one” NATO member “shall be considered an attack against them all;”

Ø “Sacred Cows are never slain, they simply vanish.” Henry James, 1890

QUESTION: What is the raison d'etre that imparts cohesion to NATO? Eastern Europe

“I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian Army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily.” Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, 7 February 2015

“In terms of military and non-military actions, has plans for the whole southern down to Transnistria, as well as, for dismembering Ukraine.“ Pavlo Klimkin, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, 27 Nov 2018

If Ukraine is to retain its independence, its economy must thrive, corruption must be expunged and its Army must grow strong. China

Ø 50% of China’s Defense Budget is committed to internal security (maintenance of regime security);

Ø Western analysts fear that China’s economy is headed for a “hard landing” that could have ominous consequences for the US Economy;

Ø The Royal Navy’s control of the South China Sea in the 19th Century and Japan’s use of Taiwan and Korea against China in 1937 shape China’s military thinking [anti-access/area denial (A2AD)]; The Korean Peninsula and Japan

Regarding the date of the second Kim-Trump summit, ROK Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said there was a "broad agreement" between Pyongyang and Washington and that it could be announced "very soon.“ “N. Korea, US urged to take Reciprocal Steps,” Korea Times, 25 Jan 2019

“Japan can never negotiate with other countries in good faith about its strategic interests until it changes its subordinate status vis-a-vis the .” Koji Yabe, Japan Times, 26 January 2019 The Near East

Uncomfortable Facts: ü Iraq is now Iran’s Client State; ü Syria is the Client State of Russia and Iran; ü Turkish hostility to the West is real and growing; ü Turkey’s peace with Russia should be viewed against the backdrop of history (temporary expedient); ü Israel’s power is disproportional to its size; an agonizing fact for its neighbors. Venezuela and Latin America

“Maduro will want to demonstrate that he remains in charge, even as the Trump administration undermines him with its decision Wednesday to recognize Venezuelan National Assembly Leader Juan Guaidó as the interim president.” “U.S. diplomats in Caracas may face virtual siege at the embassy,” McClatchy News, 24 January 2019

The proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the largest in the world, totaling 297 billion barrels (4.72×1010 m3), (potentially 1.2 Trillion Barrels in the Orinoco Belt).

Russia, which has backed Maduro’s socialist government to the tune of billions of dollars, this week promised to stand by him. Implications for the U.S. Army:

Ø Political and military leaders must project technology and conditions into the future while they develop forces now that will be used a decade or more after their conception. Is this happening?

Ø This is not the time to raid the past in order to justify the status quo…

Ø Solution: Apply Peter Drucker’s private sector advice to the U.S. Army: “If you want something new, you have to stop doing something old.”

Reequipping the 1942 Army for 2028 Parting Thoughts: “We must hold our minds alert and receptive to the application of un- glimpsed methods and weapons. The next war will be won in the future, not in the past. We must go on, or we will go under.” General of the Army Douglas MacArthur while Army Chief of Staff, 1931

ü The U.S .has an enduring strategic interest in securing access to the high seas, the atmosphere; Antarctica, and outer space, but…

ü Grand strategy, if it exists at all, must answer these questions honestly: What is the Purpose? Method? End-state?;

ü The military form of national strategy must integrate the use of military power with technology, economic development, diplomacy and culture to support national policies that operate for decades.