0 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Layyah
Acknowledgement
Local Adaptation Plans of Actions (LAPA) was prepared by the DevCon Development Consultants under the project called “GROW campaign” a joint collaboration of Oxfam in Pakistan and Indus Consortium and implemented in Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore districts.
Special thanks to the representatives of the government line departments, civil society, media, farmers and academia for providing information and support in consultation workshops/meetings. The DevCon team extends its appreciation to the management and project staff of Oxfam Pakistan and Indus Consortium for their continuous support and collaboration during the assignment.
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Table of Contents Acknowledgement ...... 1 1. Background ...... 3 2. Purpose ...... 3 3. Key Objectives ...... 4 4. Methodology ...... 4 5. Geography ...... 5 6. Administration...... 6 7. Agriculture ...... 7 8. Secondary Data Findings ...... 7 8.1. Climate Change Trends in Pakistan ...... 8 8.2. Institutional Arrangement for Climate Change ...... 9 8.3. Economic Relevance of Agriculture ...... 11 8.4. Land Use ...... 11 8.5. Food Security and Nutrition ...... 12 8.6. Challenges for the Agricultural Sector ...... 12 8.7 Agriculture and Climate Change ...... 12 8.8 Climate Change and Agriculture in Punjab ...... 13 8.9 Climate Change and Agriculture in District Layyah ...... 13 9. Primary Data Findings ...... 15 9.1. Issues ...... 15 9.2. Effects ...... 15 9.3 Recommendations ...... 15 10. LAPA Framework ...... 16 10.1 Climate Change Sensitisation ...... 17 10.2 Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment ...... 17 10.3 Prioritization of Adaptation Options ...... 18 10.4 Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action ...... 18 10.5 Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes ...... 18 10.6 Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action ...... 18 10.7 Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action ...... 18 11. Framework for Plan of Action ...... 19
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1. Background
Indus Consortium (IC) a collaborative platform of 3 humanitarian and development organizations works on climate change, water governance, tax justice, democracy and governance. Humanitarian work is the key of the area of expertise of Indus Consortium.
Pakistan, currently ranking 145thof 187 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI), has a population of 177 million, 22.7% of whom live on less than $1.25 per day1.60.6% of rural households are food insecure2 and, lagging behind MDG1, the country has dropped from 52nd on the Global Hunger Index (GHI) in 2010 to 57th in 20123.In Layyah District, which has the 5th highest incidence of severe poverty amongst Punjab’s 35 districts4, 91% of the population have insufficient income to meet their basic needs5.
GROW campaign is a 04 years joint collaboration of Oxfam in Pakistan and Indus Consortium and implemented in Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore districts. Facilitation in the development of local adaptation plan of actions (LAPA) in 5 respective districts, incorporation of small growers and woman framers’ input in draft CC policy of Punjab province and budget analysis/ advocacy on CC related budget and expenditure has been done. Youth engagement has been ensured through formal MOU signing and partnership with 3 top public universities of Punjab including University of Punjab, Lahore, Bahauddin Zakriya University, Multan and Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi.
Budget of provincial government of the Punjab is being analyzed three consecutive years as Climate Public Expenditure Review (CPER) / Budget Primer. Creating the drive through local level then to provincial level, a research is being planned to conduct in order to understand the budget cycle at district level.
2. Purpose National Climate Change Authority Act 20176 also emphasized to prepare the National Adaptation Plan and its constituent provincial and local adaptation plans of Actions, the would help out to design Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action Framework.
Indus Consortium has taken the initiative to develop sectoral Local Adaptation Plans of Action on Agriculture in two districts of Punjab, i.e. Rajanpur and Layyah. Moreover, in order to achieve more specific results and to highlight how climate change affect crops of the Layyah, agriculture LAPA’s in are made crop specific. The most affected crop from Layyah is Gram/chickpea.
Local Adaptation Plans of Actions (LAPA) will support decision-makers from local-to-national level actors to:
1 Human Development Report 2011, United Nations Development Programme 2 National Nutrition Survey, 2011, Aga Khan University, Pakistan Medical Research Council and Government of Pakistan. 3 Global Hunger Index 2012, Welthungerhilfe, Concern Worldwide and International Food Policy Research. 4 Naveed and Ali (2012) Clustered Deprivation: District Profile of Poverty in Pakistan. Sustainable Development Policy Institute. 5 Siddiqui (2008) Income, Public Social Services & Capability Development: A Cross-district Analysis of Pakistan; Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. 6 National Climate Change Authority Act: http://www.na.gov.pk
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Identify the most climate vulnerable Village Development Committees (VDC’s), wards and people and their adaptation outcomes and actions. Prioritise adaptation actions in easy ways whereby local people make the prioritisation decisions. Prepare and Integrate local adaptation plans for action into local-to-national planning in accordance with the Local Self Governance Act. Identify appropriate service delivery agents and channels for funding to implement local adaptation plans for action. The LAPA Framework can thus ensure that the best sequence of adaptation actions is carried out by the most appropriate service providers in a timely and resource efficient manner. Assess the progress of LAPA to ensure effective planning and delivery. Provide cost-effective options for scaling out local-to-national adaptation planning. 3. Key Objectives The main objectives of District Level Sectoral Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) on Agriculture are as under:
• LAPAs shall be developed to see mitigation and adaptation options available according to the district profile of impacts of climate change on agriculture sector, available resources (human, financial and infrastructure) and implementation strategies and plans by GROW District Forums. • LAPAs shall herald a window of lobbying and advocacy efforts at district as well as provincial level and also provide opportunity to gear up efforts to integrate these LAPAs into district plans of Agriculture Department.
4. Methodology DevCon collected primary data from district Layyah. The data collection process included FGDs/consultations with relevant line departments, CSOs, Media and farmers (men and women).
FGDs with Community Members
FGDs with farmers (men and women) were conducted at District level. Discussion mainly focused on current agriculture practices, cropping pattern, climate resilient crops, challenges, coordination mechanism with agriculture department, services available from agriculture department, current polices and plan.
Consultation Workshop
One day consultation workshop organized in district Layyah to get the input of relevant stakeholders. The stakeholder’s views were compiled and used for LAPA development. The following government departments and stakeholders were consulted during data collection.
. Agriculture Extension . Agriculture Field & Research . Agriculture Water Management . Agriculture Pest Warning . Agriculture Soil Fertility . Agriculture Marketing . Food . Environment . Irrigation . Forest
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. Finance & Development Officer . ADP Officer . Women farmers/ Community members \ small farmers . Local CBO/ NGOs representative . PRSP representative . DDMA representative
5. Geography District Layyah is bounded on the North by district Bhakkar, on East by district Jhang. River Indus flows on its Western side across which lies district D.G. Khan and on the South district Muzaffargarh. District Layyah has an area of 6291 square kilometres and comprises the three tehsils of: 1. Layyah 2. Chaubara 3. Karor Lal Esan The district Layyah has an extremely hot climate. The temperature in winter is low due to nearness to Koh- Suleman range of mountains. The tehsil Chaubara is almost barren and consists of forest and sand dunes. It is actually under the control of Forest Department. The thesil of Layyah and Karor Lal Esan are comparatively better developed agriculturally but they have also large tracks of sand dunes and uncultivated land. The river Indus passes from North to South on Western side of the district and touches D.G. Khan.
The Layyah is situated between the River Indus and Chenab in Sindh. Sagar Doab in central area of Pakistan. In the North, there is District Bhakkar, Muzaffargarh in the South, Jhang in the East and D.G. Khan in the West across the river. The District is of semi rectangular shape and has sandy land.
Figure 1: District Map (Layyah)
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Location, Area and Administrative Division Layyah is one of the southern districts of Punjab province. Located at 30°45’ to 31°24' north latitude and 70°44' to 71°50 east longitude, district Layyah is bounded on the north by District Bhakkar, on the east by District Jhang and on the south by District Muzaffargarh. River Indus making the western border of the district separates it from District Dera Ismail Khan (NWFP) and Dera Ghazi Khan. Layyah covers an area of 6291 sq.km and makes 3% area of Punjab and 0.8% area of Pakistan.
Administratively Layyah is divided into three Tehsils, 44 Union Councils and 720 Mauzas or revenue units. In terms of area, Chobara is the vastest tehsil that covers 44% area of the district. Layyah got the status of district on July 1, 1982. Prior to this it was a tehsil of District Muzaffargarh.
Before coming under the administrative jurisdiction of District Muzaffargarh, Layyah was part of Dera Ismail Khan District. These arrangements had had impacts on the social, political and economic relationship of Layyah with these districts. Layyah is now part of Dera Ghazi Khan Division besides the districts of Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur and Muzaffargarh. All these four districts makes the southernmost zone of Punjab. 30°45' to 31°24' north latitude and 70°44' to 71°50' east longitude, district Layyah.
Physical Features/Characteristics Geologically the area where Layyah lies is formed of sedimentary rocks of quaternary type. The soils in the district can be divided into two broader categories. The area/strip that lies along river Indus is part of its active flood plain and composed of loamy and some stratified sandy soils that are found in young flood plains. The area lying next to this is part of Thall desert. Here rolling to hilly sandy soils of aeolian deserts are found. The difference in soils structure and moisture regimes in the district has translated into difference in the natural vegetation. In the riverain zone, thorny vegetation is found where as in the desert zone, desertic and semi desertic vegetation are found. In terms of natural use of land, major portion of the district can be termed a rough grazing land. The areas lying along and closer to river Indus are arable lands. Small pockets of the district are under the forest cover. Climatically Layyah is part of the hot, arid/dry zone of Pakistan. The average annual rainfall is less than 125mm. The area receives most of the rainfall during summer. The summers are long and very harsh. Dust storms are quite powerful and common in the desert zone. In this zone, even during the summer, nights are very pleasant. The winters are short and moderate. In the canal irrigated and riverain zone, during winter months of January and February, very thick fog in the morning is a common phenomenon while at the same time frost damages crops and orchards.
6. Administration Pakistan’s 18th constitutional amendment was signed into law in 2010 targeting to decentralize political supremacy. It pursued to curb the oft-abused powers of the Pakistani presidency and empower the country’s four provinces by transferring federal-level capital, resources and authorities to provincial governments. The main purpose was to ensure upright governance and impartiality at the doorstep. This plan gave the assurance of the rights of the people and their partaking in the communal welfare.
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Figure 2: Local Government Structure and its Hierarchy
7. Agriculture Main Crops Sugarcane Wheat Cotton Gram Guar Seed Gram/Chickpea
Main Vegetables Onion Potatoes
8. Secondary Data Findings The Layyah District has an extremely hot climate. Maximum Temperature in the summer goes up to 53 Degree Celsius. The temperature in winter is low due the area’s nearness to Koh-Suleman range of mountain. The Chubara Tehsil is almost barren and consists of forest and sand Dunes. The agriculture is dependent on rains which often inadequate. Tehsil Chobara of Layyah was specifically selected due to extreme poverty, food insecurity, remoteness, arid topography and lack of livelihood options. Lack of
7 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Layyah government investment and political will to prioritise initiatives to support the poor further amplifies poverty and exclusion levels. Tehsil Chobara, district Layyah suffered from serious drought disaster in 2011-2012 due to no rain. Punjab Government declared 24 villages affected due to drought. Heavy rain and wind storms also damage the wheat crops in 2016-17. Provincial Minister Disaster management visited the area and announced the relief package for affected household.
The agriculture sector has become extremely vulnerable to the climate change. During recent years, the production of all crops has been affected by the climatic changes, pulses are no exception. For instance, production of gram has been badly affected in severe drought season as its production totally depends upon the intensity and distribution of rainfall, being cultivated mostly in rain-fed areas.
The gram/chickpea has been identified as the most vulnerable crop from Layyah. Gram/Chickpea is one of the most important pulses used in the Punjab. It is valued for its nutritive seeds with high protein content. Chickpea seeds are eaten fresh as green vegetable, parched, fried, roasted, and boiled; as snack food, sweet and condiments; seeds are ground and the flour can be used Chickpea/gram is the major source of livelihood of rural people in the Thal desert of Punjab that is well known as home of chickpea because the area cannot support/sustain major cash crops due to low fertility and lack of irrigation.
It’s production entirely depend upon the intensity and distribution of rainfall. Thal accounts for the bulk of production of this crop, cultivated on about 2.129 million acres during 2016-17. Gram/chickpea contribute 70-80% to the total pulses area and production. The total seasonal average crop water requirement of gram (Chickpea) has been calculated using the scientific method, which comes to about 275 mm (11 inch) and ranges from 250-315 mm (10-13 inch). The crop is, however, liable to lodging and disease with extra vegetative growth when there is high moisture. The climatic uncertainty due to erratic rainfall in the Thal desert is the main obstacle in crop production under rain-fed conditions. During the drought periods, there is absolutely no produce and even the farmer has no seed to sow in the next year.
Under the emerging challenges of climate change, food security and water scarcity, increase in production of cereals, pulses, fruits and vegetables to meet the food requirement of increasing population is direly needed. In countries like Pakistan, majority of the people living in rural areas consume substantial quantity of pluses for meeting their daily meal needs because these are rich source of protein and substitute of other costly sources of protein - meat and fish. Major pulses include gram, lentil, mung and mash. The pulses are grown on 5% of the country's total cultivated area. Punjab contributes 80% in total production of the pulses in the country and occupies 5% of the total cropped area.
The major reasons for low yield of gram identified by the Arid Zone Research, Institute Bhakkar are poor sandy soils, erratic rainfall pattern, uneven rainfall distribution, and small holdings, less or no access to quality seed, conventional agronomic practices and poor marketing system. Supplementary irrigation at critical stages of crop growth in required quantity plays a vital role in getting the high yield vis-à-vis production in Thal area, the sources concluded. “The chickpea (gram) crop — grown predominantly in rain fed areas of Punjab — has been hit by low per acre yield for the past few years. Growers complain about water scarcity, poor quality seed and lack of the government’s focus to improve yield of minor crops”.
8.1. Climate Change Trends in Pakistan A significant warming trend of about 0.57°C in the annual mean temperature was observed in the past century from 1901 to 2000 in Pakistan. This increase is less than the mean annual temperature increase of
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0.75°C in the past century in the South Asia region.7 A more accelerated trend of warming, with the rise of 0.47°C, was observed from 1961 to 2007 in the country. The warmest year recorded until 2007 was 2004, and the highest increase is observed during winter when the temperature ranges from 0.52°C to 1.12°C. This is in agreement with the pronounced rate of warming observed over the South Asia region in the decade 1998–2007, which was attributed to increase in winter temperature and post-monsoon changes. On a regional basis, the highest increase in winter temperature was observed for Balochistan province, while the northwestern parts of the country showed negative temperature trends in the summer. The annual temperatures in Pakistan increased by 0.87°C (maximum) and 0.48°C (minimum) from 1960 to 2007.8
Based on the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) station data from 1951 to 2000, a rising tendency in the annual mean surface temperature was observed throughout the country.9 In the hyper arid plains, arid coastal areas, and mountain regions of Pakistan, an increase of 0.6°C–1.0°C in the mean temperature was observed, whereas an increase of 0.5%–0.7% in solar radiation was noted over the southern half of the country. In central Pakistan, the cloud cover decreased by 3%–5% with a consequent increase of 0.9°C in temperature.
The continuous and longtime span data of various meteorological parameters of 56 selected PMD meteorological stations showed the behavior of summer and winter maximum and minimum temperatures during the last decade.24 A time series of area-weighted mean annual temperatures of Pakistan for the years 1961 to 2013, after applying uniform weighing factor, based on regional surface feature characteristics for all the climatic zones of Pakistan.
8.2. Institutional Arrangement for Climate Change The role and importance of strong institutions to address climate change is highly acknowledged to mainstream the issue in development policies and programs. Strong institutions promote adapting to climate change and ultimately transform the system by building resilience. However, developing countries, including Pakistan, suffer from inefficient and weak institutional structures, ultimately yielding poor governance systems.
Institutionalization of climate change in Pakistan finds its roots in the early environmental efforts dating back as early as the mid-1970s. Pakistan signed and ratified 14 international environmental commitments between 1971–2001, including the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol, which acted as stimuli in initiating and guiding the policy processes and efforts on climate change in the country. Significant progress has been made to set up institutional structures for guiding the environmental initiatives in the country. After over 4 decades, however, these efforts still remain fragmented, with insufficient coordination, political support, and ownership.
After the 18th constitutional amendment was passed in 2010, the Ministry of Environment was devolved to the provinces and a new Ministry of Disaster Management was established in 2011. This was later renamed as the Ministry of Climate Change in 2012, which raised the issue of climate change to a cabinet level portfolio. In 2013, the Ministry of Climate Change was downgraded to a division of the Cabinet
7 M. Ahmed and S. Suphachalasai. 2014. Assessing the Cost of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia. Manila: ADB. 8 Q. Z. Chaudhry et al. 2009. Climate Change Indicators of Pakistan. Technical Report. No. 22. Islamabad: Pakistan Meteorological Department. 9 B. F. Anjum et al. 2005. Climate Change Perspective in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology. 2(2). pp. 11–21.
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Secretariat and remained in this position until early 2015, when it was upgraded to the level of a ministry again. Table 9 outlines the institutionalization of environment and/or climate change in Pakistan.
Table 1: Brief History of Institutionalization of Climate Change in Pakistan Year Accomplishment Purpose and/or Function 1974 Environment and Urban Affairs Division Follow up to Stockholm Declaration June 1972 established at the Federal level 1983 Pakistan Environment Protection Ordinance First comprehensive environment-specific enacted legislation 1989 Environment and Urban Affairs Division upgraded to Federal Ministry of Environment, Forestry, and Wildlife 1991–1993 National Conservation Strategy prepared It provided the broad framework for addressing environmental challenges National Environmental Quality Standards adopted in 1993 1995 • Cabinet Committee on Climate Change • Acted as policy coordination forum for climate established change 1997 • Pakistan Environmental Protection Act enacted • First environmental act of the country 2002 • Global Centre for Impact Studies on Climate • This research center on climate change Change established functioned for 10 years as a development project 2004– •Prime Minister Committee on Climate •Includes Prime Minister, Ministers of Water and 2005 Change convenes National Environment Policy Power, Food and Agriculture, Science and Technology, Environment, Planning Commission, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister 2006 • National Energy Conservation Policy • National Renewable Energy Policy • Clean Development Mechanism National Operational Strategy 2010 • 18th Amendment to the 1973 Constitution •Devolution of power to the provinces 2011 • Ministry of Environment ceases to exist • Functions transferred to the Planning • New Federal Ministry of Disaster Commission Management established 2012 • Ministry of Disaster Management renamed to • Elevate climate change issue to a cabinet level the Ministry of Climate Change portfolio • National Climate Change Policy approved by • A dedicated policy on climate change Federal Cabinet • Deals with environmental cases; 2013 decision • Punjab and Balochistan Environmental prioritizes environmental cases in the High Protection Act prepared and enacted Courts • “Green Benches” established in all High Courts and Supreme Court of Pakistan by the Chief Justice of Pakistan • National Disaster Management Plan approved • National Sustainable Development Strategy
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2013 • Ministry of Climate Change downgraded to • Becomes part of Cabinet Secretariat Division of Climate Change • Global Climate Change Impact Studies granted • Serves as the secretariat for the Prime autonomous status Minister Committee through “GCISC Act • National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy 2013” approved 2014 • Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy adopted 2015 • Division of Climate Change upgraded to the • Federal focal ministry on all climate change- Ministry of Climate Change related issues
8.3. Economic Relevance of Agriculture Agriculture remains the second largest economic sector in Pakistan, contributing approximately 18.9% to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and absorbing roughly 42.3% of the labour force, mainly composed of women. The sector is not only the largest employer in the country but generates over 75% of export revenue through agri-based textiles (cotton) and agri-food products.
Despite its critical importance to food security, livelihoods, economic growth and export revenues, agricultural productivity remains low, with significant yield gaps compared to global averages in key crops like wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane. The average farm size in Pakistan is 2.6 hectares (ha), with approximately 43% of the farmers categorized as smallholders with holdings of less than one ha, while only 22% own more than 3 ha of land. In 2016, for first time in the past 15 years, the sector experienced a negative growth rate of 0.2%, primarily due to the impact of extreme events on key crops, a lack of access to key inputs, and a global downturn in commodity prices.
Critical investments in improved seeds, farming technology and techniques, and water infrastructure are needed to tackle the emerging challenges to the sector’s development, especially in the context of declining water availability and climate change impacts.
Agriculture provides employment for roughly 25 million people in Pakistan and is the main income source for 34% and 74% of economically active men and women respectively. Yet women have limited access and control over productive resources (e.g. land, irrigation infrastructure, and agricultural inputs), low awareness of improved technologies and skills for value addition and marketing, and limited access to extension and financial services. Their role in the household and in daily agricultural activities, however, varies across regions according to local customs and traditions.
8.4. Land Use Pakistan receives monsoon rainfall in the summer, while in the winter it receives rainfall due to western systems (prevailing winds from the Mediterranean). These two forces broadly determine the two main cropping seasons in the country. These are ‘Kharif’ (April-June), suitable for summer crops cultivation (e.g. rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, pulses), and ‘Rabi’ (October-December) when wheat, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are grown. The major crops are cotton, wheat, rice, sugar cane and maize that cover over 50% of the harvested area. Some crops such as pulses, onions, potatoes, chili, and tomatoes, have gained in economic importance in the country, given the consistently high prices of these essential commodities. Climate variability and change, pest infestation, and commodity price fluctuations are some of the challenges to crop productivity.
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8.5. Food Security and Nutrition Natural disasters, economic instability, and militancy have challenged food security in Pakistan over the past years, despite significant increases in staple crop yields. Pakistan ranks 78th out of 113 countries in the Global Food Security Index, with more than half of the population (60%) experiencing food insecurity. The average food supply in the country is estimated at 2,440 kcal/person/day, yet this is rated insufficient to meet demand (the country boasts an index score of 39.7, where 100 indicates sufficiency of supply) given high geographical disparities in food production and supply. From a nutrition perspective, over one- fifth (22%) of the total population is undernourished, one-third (31%) of children are underweight for their age (15% are affected by wasting) and diets generally lack diversity (Pakistan scores a 53.60 on the food diversity index).
8.6. Challenges for the Agricultural Sector Despite significance of agriculture to the country’s economy and its people, the sector currently faces a multitude of challenges including population growth, reduced water resource availability and gender inequality.
Pakistan’s population has more than doubled in the past two decades, growing at a rate of approximately 2% per year and is expected to further increase to 244 million by 2030 and 300 million by 2050. At the same time, life expectancy in the country is projected to increase from 66 to 71 years by 2050. Such exponential growth will put significant strains on the already extended and vulnerable agriculture system, boosting demand for food. The current per capita caloric availability in Pakistan, 2,432 kcal/day is likely to fall unless food production keeps the pace with the projected population growth.
Deficiency in water availability, degradation of soil, and an increasingly animal-based diet are additional threats to food security in Pakistan. Changing climate conditions such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity multiply these threats, affecting the availability and quality of natural resources and increasing the vulnerability of the sector. Most of the country’s territory is classified as arid to semi-arid. Three-fourths of the country receives less than 250 mm of rainfall annually, while about 20% of such area receives less than 120mm Rainfall alone, then, is generally insufficient for growing agricultural crops, maintaining pastures, and growing fruit trees. Roughly 8 million ha of land in Pakistan is idle and unutilized due to unfavorable climatic conditions. Supplemental water is required for profitable agricultural production in Pakistan, either from irrigation or through water harvesting techniques.
The rural population, which represents the backbone of the agricultural sector, is comprised mainly of small-scale, poor farmers who lack access to modern farming technologies, machinery, fertilizer inputs, as well as drought and other weather-tolerant seeds. The high price of seeds and a lack of support from government further restrict farmers from adopting improved techniques. Rural infrastructure lacks properly built roads, transport and storage facilities, electricity, education and health services. Each of these features is currently inadequate to meet the requirements of a growing agricultural sector.
8.7 Agriculture and Climate Change Agriculture in our country is significantly affected by short-term climate variability and longer-term climate change. Pakistan is ranked among the top ten most climate vulnerable countries in the world in the Global Climate Risk Index. The country has a diversified geography and climate. Climate change threats are exacerbated in the country due to the arid climate and reliance on water from the glacial melt in the north.
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Periods of severe droughts, followed by devastating floods are common in the country and have contributed to low crop yields, loss of livestock, damage to irrigation infrastructure and food shortages in recent years. Economic losses associated to the 2010-2014 floods amounted to US$ 18 billion, affecting the livelihoods of 38 million people and causing damages to approximately 4.3 million ha of cropland. Changes in climate have been manifested through long-term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions of the country and higher glacial melts that contribute to over 70% of river flows. Moreover, the mean temperature across the country has increased by 0.5°C in the past 30 years.
Changes in monsoons and increased temperatures are likely to bring considerable challenges to agriculture. Increases in temperature will likely speed up crop growth cycles and shorten the time between sowing and harvesting, affecting crop yields. According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index, droughts are expected to increase in winter, affecting the yield of cash harvests. Meanwhile, increase in precipitation in the summer season may cause floods throughout different areas of Pakistan.
8.8 Climate Change and Agriculture in Punjab The province of Punjab has the largest share in the agriculture sector, with 57.1% of the cultivated land belonging to the province. It produces the majority share of cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane crops and milk. Extreme temperatures and a changing global climate have serious implications for the future of agriculture in Punjab. Changing climate affects both cropping patterns as well as crop productivity through changes in temperatures and precipitation levels. A recent study by Siddiqui et al (2012) finds that the impact of climate change is statistically significant on crop productivity in Punjab.
A more recent study finds that maximum temperatures adversely affect wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the Province and country. Although these studies have their statistical limitations, they have shown that climate change has real and adverse implications for the future of agriculture in Punjab (Punjab Economic Report, 2017).
The province of Punjab has the largest share in the agriculture sector, with 57.1% of the cultivated land belonging to the province. It produces the majority share of cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane crops and milk. Agriculture, predominantly contributes to income generation for the people of the province. It is imperative to protect the agriculture sector from extreme events and natural hazards. The change in climatic conditions has a profound effect on the agriculture sector, innately connected with the environment. Punjab, much like the entire country, suffers from various issues including climate change and natural disasters. Floods have been the major cause of damages in the province between 1980-2015. Riverine floods have the largest spread across the province and have historically affected the greatest number of people, and destroyed property, arable land and crops (Lead, 2016).
8.9 Climate Change and Agriculture in District Layyah
The agriculture sector has become extremely vulnerable to the climate change. During recent years, the production of all crops has been affected by the climatic changes, pulses are no
13 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Layyah exception. For instance, production of chickpea/ gram has been badly affected in severe drought season as its production totally depends upon the intensity and distribution of rainfall, being cultivated mostly in rain-fed areas.
Gram/Chickpea is one of the most important pulses used in the Punjab. Chickpea/gram is the major source of livelihood of rural people in the Thal desert of Punjab that is well known as home of chickpea because the area cannot support/sustain major cash crops due to low fertility and lack of irrigation. Its production entirely depends upon the intensity and distribution of rainfall.
Thal accounts for the bulk of production of this crop, cultivated on about 2.129 million acres during 2016-17. Gram/chickpea contribute 70-80% to the total pulses area and production. The climatic uncertainty due to erratic rainfall in the Thal desert is the main obstacle in crop production under rain-fed conditions. During the drought periods, there is absolutely no produce and even the farmer has no seed to sow in the next year.
The major reasons for low yield of gram identified by the Arid Zone Research, Institute Bhakkar are poor sandy soils, erratic rainfall pattern, uneven rainfall distribution, small holdings, less or no access to quality seed, conventional agronomic practices and poor marketing system. Supplementary irrigation at critical stages of crop growth in required quantity plays a vital role in getting the high yield in district Layyah (Business recorder, 2018). The following table reveals the area, production and yield of chickpea in the district of Layyah. The yield of chickpea has decreased despite of increase in area under the crop. Major reasons are those mentioned above.
Table 2: Area, Production and Yield of Chickpea in District Layyah
Production (000 Year Area (000 hec) Yield (mnds/acre tonnes)
2012-13 103.3 66.3 6.5 2013-14 230.96 36.8 1.61 2014-15 230.96 25.4 1.11 2015-16 296.44 38.1 1.3 Source: AIMS
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9. Primary Data Findings 9.1. Issues During consultation with the government, civil society & farmers communities the following issues were highlighted which are negatively impacting the efforts made by stakeholders to combat the facts of climate change on agriculture. The key issues are; 1. Lack of coordination/communication between stakeholders and communities 2. Insufficient, skilled & technical human resources in government line departments 3. Lake of prioritization by Government institutions for policy development regarding climate change 4. Insufficient allocation of financial resources for Climate Change 5. Inflexibility of polices implemented in different regions without considering local dynamics 6. Less focus on community awareness raising regarding climate change adaptation 7. Communities are not introduced to progressive farming techniques that are more water conservative 8. Knowledge of crops and cropping patterns 9. Change in rain fall pattern 10. Soil erosion is also critical issues in flood affected areas 11. Use of chemical Pesticides are doing harm to the environment and crops varieties 12. Depletion of forest 9.2. Effects 1. Reduction in agriculture Crops productivity 2. Lesser utilization of land 3. Less opportunities for agriculture labor 4. Change in cropping timing 5. Deforestation is contributing in flooding and rise in temperature) 6. Livestock fodder availability reduced 7. Animal mortality increasing day by day 8. Worsened household food security condition 9. Increased migration trend in the communities 9.3 Recommendations Soft Measures 1. Introduction of drought resistant crops varieties to farmers living in drought affected UCs of district Layyah 2. Government should also consider public private partnership and involving agriculture research institutes to find effective and efficient ways to fight climate change impact on agriculture and agriculture communities 3. Introduction of Short duration and high return crops to farmers 4. Community should be given awareness on tree plantation to minimize the effects on climate change 5. Introduction of disease and pest free crops to farmers 6. Farmer need to be education on climate resilient farming 7. Imparting technical knowledge and skills to farmers by establishing farmer schools/advisory centres 8. Networking with other forums working on smart agriculture techniques 9. Improved coordination among government line departments and with other stakeholders
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10. Exposure visit for farmers to learn about new agriculture practices and researches 11. Documenting indigencies practices to use this knowledge base to adopt best practices 12. Pictorial resource material (IEC) on climate change impact and its impact on agriculture needs to be made available at community level 13. Re-schedule of sowing pattern of crops 14. Adopt best practices (saving soil test, water, usage of land leveler, low usage of poisons/pesticides/ Fertilizers/chemical 15. Community should encourage to do versified farming to better utilized their land and resources
Hard Measures 1. Efficiency of canal systems/water channeling needs to be improved 2. Government should also promote alternate energy options in the areas where no electricity is available for pumping of the water to the fields 3. A careful assessment need to conducted to identify mitigation measures to minimize community crops/property losses during flood 4. Government should grow and promote less water conservative trees to conserve water 5. Government should consider small dams water shortage facilities for agriculture 6. Provision of environment friendly seeds to the farmers 7. Provision of Agriculture equipment’s and machinery 8. Provision of approved quality seeds 9. Provision of Kitchen Gardening kits and seeds to encourage communities to grow vegetables to meet their food security needs 10. Special attention should be given on proper land leveling to reduce water losses
10. LAPA Framework The LAPA Framework consists of seven steps for integrating climate change resilience into local-to national planning processes. The steps involved in preparing and implementing local adaptation plans for action are shown in Figure 4 and include:
1. Climate change sensitisation 2. Climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment 3. Prioritization of adaptation options 4. Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action 5. Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes 6. Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action 7. Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action
Each step is detailed in the following sub-sections outlining why each step is important, the actions to be undertaken and the tools that can be used.
16 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Layyah
Step-1 Sensitisation (Carried out in all Steps)
Step-2 Step-7 Review and Vulernerability & Progress Assessment Adaptation Assessment
Step-6 Step-3 Implementation of Prioritisation of Adaptaion Adaptation Plan Options
Step-5 Step-4 Integration of Adaptation Formulation of Adaptation Plan into Planning Plan Processes
Figure 3: Steps of LAPA (from GoN, 2011)
10.1 Climate Change Sensitisation Effective adaptation planning that addresses the potential impacts of climate change requires information on climate induced impacts, potential adaptation options and challenges and information on how to access resources for adaptation. Climate change has a differentiated impact on agriculture, men, women and other social groups. Information collected therefore needs to be available in disaggregated manner considering gender, age and social status. This information is needed by district decision makers, civil and private sector stakeholders and climate vulnerable households alike. Sensitizing stakeholders to the impacts of climate change and to adaptation options is an essential starting point for adaptation planning. Secondly, climate change sensitisation also supports stakeholders to identify and establish institutions that will directly implement and/or assist in the implementation of adaptation plans. The likely institutions may include Agriculture extension & AR department, DDMA, Irrigation, District networks and civil society.
10.2 Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Integrating climate change resilience into local-to-national development planning requires adequate information on climate vulnerability and adaptation options. In order to make decisions, district planners need to identify approaches and interventions that will enable the most climate vulnerable communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and other sectors.
Common Hazard
River Flooding Droughts Climate Change (Torrential Rains, Temperature increase, Less rain fall)
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River Erosion Deforestation The climatic change negatively impacting on rural livelihood of farmers, rural agricultural yield and production. The incomes of small farmers directly affected on agricultural yield due to climate change. However, the changes in natural temperature directed cause for the unscheduled rains, flood that cause for the damage of mature crops of small farmers. The livelihood also causes for the weak health condition of the community. The agricultural sector (crops and livestock), which is the main source of food and income (livelihood) for majority of local the people in the area damage.
10.3 Prioritization of Adaptation Options Identified adaptation options would need prioritization with due consideration of climate threats. The process of prioritising adaptation actions helps decision makers in taking forward a robust set of actions for implementation. Prioritisation helps ascertain actions that are cost-effective and sustainable and are able to address the needs of the most vulnerable communities first.
10.4 Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action Developing a Local Adaptation Plan for Action is an essential step in ensuring that prioritised adaptation options are implemented. The following 5WH framework can be used to develop an adaptation plan:
1. What actions? 2. Where to implement? 3. Who will implement? 4. When to implement? 5. How much will it cost?
10.5 Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes Integration of adaptation plans into sector and development planning would help to address climate induced challenges in an effective and sustainable manner. Integrating LAPA into local-to-national development planning processes and outcomes allows climate vulnerable men, women, households, communities, wards, Village Development Committee (VDC) to articulate their adaptation priorities, and draw down on government, civil and private sector resources for sustainable implementation.
10.6 Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action Implementation of the LAPA is important to bridge the gap between adaptation assessment, planning and delivery. If the adaptation plan has been prepared in a logical way and the leaders and those who will carry out the actions including the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) have been identified, then implementation is simply a matter of carrying out the plan.
10.7 Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action LAPA Monitoring and Evaluation supports the development planning process in dealing with uncertainty by collecting and evaluating evidence on the progress and outcomes of the LAPA. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and reviews provides opportunities for learning, reflection and feedback to support responsive and iterative adaptation planning.
18 11. Framework for Plan of Action
What Action? Connection to Where to Who will When to implement TIMING? How to What Who will pay Thematic implement? implement? implement will it (Donor Areas ? cost? )?
Activities Location Immediate Medium Long Methods Amount Donor/ (Within Term Term of Implementing Six (Within (Within Money Agencies months) 1-2 2-5 years) years) MHVA need to be conducted to i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture research, Situational To be Government identify mitigation measures to ii. Climate PDMA analysis/ added (DDMA, MET minimize community Change DDMA Vulnerability department) crops/property losses during Adaptation Agriculture Assessment disaster Engineering Departments Agriculture Universities NGOs Research Institutes Introduction of drought resistant i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Agriculture Consultation To be Government crops varieties to farmers living ii. Climate UC Chobara Extension & AR meetings & added (Ayub in drought affected UCs of Change including seven Livestock Focused Group Agriculture district Layyah Adaptation UCs of drought Irrigation Discussion Institute & prone of Layyah Agriculture (FGDs) Met Universities Department) and INGO/NGOs Universities Civil society Adaptive research Public private partnership and i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Agriculture Consultation To be Government involving agriculture research ii. Climate UC Chobara Extension & AR meetings & added (EPA, EPD, and institutes to find effective and Change including seven Irrigation Seminars Ministry of Adaptation
19 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Layyah efficient ways to fight climate UCs of drought Agriculture Environment) change impact on agriculture prone of Layyah Universities Haswani Group, INGO/NGOs Seed Pest Control Companies, Companies Ali Akbar Civil society group, Bayer, AYOVAL Introduction of Short duration i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Agriculture Trainings To be Government and high return crops to farmers ii. Climate UC Chobara Extension & AR sessions, added Agriculture Change including seven Irrigation Consultation Extension Adaptation UCs of drought Agriculture meetings & prone of Layyah Universities Transformation INGO/NGOs of cropping Civil society schemes Introduction of disease and pest i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Agriculture Consultation To be Government resistant crops to farmers ii. Climate UC Chobara Extension & AR meetings & added Research Change including seven Irrigation Focused Group institute Adaptation UCs of drought Agriculture Discussion Agriculture prone of Layyah Universities (FGDs) Extension INGO/NGOs Farmer Field departments Pest control Schools Entomology and companies Productive Pathology Civil society centers department Government incentives Farmer education on climate i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture Consultation To be Government resilient farming ii. Climate Extension & AR meetings & added (Agriculture Change Irrigation Focused Group Extension & adaptation Agriculture Discussion Agriculture Universities (FGDs) water INGO/NGOs management), Civil society Pest companies and Education Institutes
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Imparting technical knowledge i. Technical UC Nawakot & Agriculture Technical To be Government and skills to farmers by Skills UC Chobara Extension & AR training added Agriculture establishing farmer ii. Agriculture including seven Irrigation sessions & Extension schools/advisory centres iii. Climate UCs of drought Agriculture Consultation NGOs and Change prone of Layyah Universities meetings Private Sector Adaptation INGO/NGOs Civil society Networking with other forums i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Government line Monthly To be Government, working on smart agriculture ii. Climate UC Chobara departments Consultation added INGOs and techniques Change including seven NGOs meetings with Media adaptation, UCs of drought Farmers groups focal persons prone of Layyah Civil society recommended by departments, seminars and workshops Development of Web portal Media Messages, Mobile apps,
Exposure visit for farmers to i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Agriculture Exposure visits To be Government learn about new agriculture ii. Climate UC Chobara Extension & AR to government added Universities, practices and researches Change including seven Irrigation, farms, private NGOs and Adaptation UCs of drought Agriculture Farms. Private Sector prone of Layyah Universities NGOs
Documenting indigencies i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture Documentation To be Government practices to use this knowledge ii. Climate Universities of Case study added Media and base to adopt best practices Change NGOs & best Social Media Adaptation Farmer Groups practices, Video Documentaries
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IEC Material on climate change i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture Awareness To be Government and its impact at community ii. Climate Extension raising added Media and level. Change Irrigation campaign, Mobile Adaptation Agriculture Advertisement companies Universities campaign, INGO/NGOs Social Media Civil society Campaign, Radio Messages, Tv programs
Re-schedule of sowing pattern i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture Research & To be Government of crops ii. Climate Extension & AR Model forms added (Agriculture Change Irrigation Extension, Adaptation Agriculture Research Universities Institute & NGOs Agronomist)
Formation of agriculture and i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture Coordination To be Government seasonal calendar ii. Climate Extension & AR meetings with added (Agriculture Change Agriculture all relevant line Extension, Adaptation Universities agencies Agriculture NGOs specific experts) Community should encourage i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Agriculture Community To be Government to do diversified farming to ii. Climate UC Chobara Extension meetings, added UN/Bilateral better utilized their land and Change including seven Irrigation awareness Donors & resources Adaptation UCs of drought Agriculture raising, INGOs prone of Layyah Universities advocacy NGOs Awareness on tree plantation to i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture Research & To be Government minimize the effects on climate ii. Climate Extension & AR model farms, added (Forest change Change Agriculture revision of department, Adaptation Universities forest use Education NGOs policy. Land institutes) and ownership to NGOs.
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Agriculture graduates
Efficiency of canal i. Irrigation District Layyah Irrigation Advocacy, To be Government systems/water channeling needs ii. PIDA Department land leveling, added (Irrigation and to be improved Agriculture Rehabilitation PIDA) and Universities and NGOs construction of canals, water policy Provision of climate resilient i. Agriculture District Layyah Agriculture Training To be Punjab Seed seeds varieties to farmers ii. Climate Extension & AR sessions & added Corporation, Change Agriculture Community Private Adaptation Universities meetings Corporation and Seed producers NGOs NGOs Government should grow and i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Government line Need To be Government, promote less water conservative ii. Climate UC Chobara departments assessment & added Forest trees to conserve water Change including seven Donor organizations Distribution of Department, adaptation UCs of drought INGOs machinery UN/Bilateral iii. DRR prone of Layyah equipment Donors & iv. Food INGOs Security v. Nutrition vi. Health vii. Livelihood viii. Livestock Provision of Kitchen Gardening i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Agriculture Community To be Government kits and seeds to encourage ii. Climate UC Chobara Extension training added UN/Bilateral women farmers to grow Change including seven NGOs sessions & Donors & vegetables to meet their food Adaptation UCs of drought provision of INGOs security needs iii. DRR prone of Layyah seeds and kits iv. Food Security v. Nutrition vi. Health
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vii. Livelihood
Proper land leveling to reduce i. Agriculture UC Nawakot & Government Line Survey, plan To be Government, water losses ii. Climate UC Chobara Departments development added (Agriculture Change including seven Donor Organizations for land Engineering, Adaptation UCs of drought leveling, Land Water prone of Layyah leveling Management, Agronomy Department) UN/Bilateral Donors and INGOs Government consider small i. Agriculture UC sumra & UC Government Line Survey and To be Government dams water shortage facilities ii. Climate lohanch Departments Construction added (Irrigation for agriculture Change Plan Department & adaptation Development Agriculture & Construction Engineering) of Small Dams Promote alternate energy i. Agriculture District Layyah Government Line Consultation To be Government options in the areas where no ii. Climate Departments, meetings & added UN/Bilateral electricity is available for Change Bilateral Donors & Focused Group Donors, INGOs pumping of the water to the adaptation INGO/NGO Discussion and Private fields (FGDs) Sector
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