Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 1

ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 135 DECEMBER 2013

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 2 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 135 DECEMBER 2013 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected]

CONTENTS Page President’s foreword 3 UV Conference 4 AGM Minutes 5-16 Around the regions in Spring 17-19 Photo Competition report 20 Spring 2013 (NIWA + Ben Tichborne) 21-27 Winter 2013 pick of the clips 28-54

Your Committee President Sam Dean Immediate Past President Andrew Tait Auckland VP Jennifer Salmond Wellington VP James Renwick Christchurch VP Simon Parsons(provisional) Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston

Secretary Katrina Richards Treasurer Andrew Tait Circulation Manager Sylvia Nichol Journal Editor Brian Giles/Jennifer Salmond Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt Wedmaster James Sturman HydroSoc Liaison: Charles Pearson General Committee Mike Revell Kim Dirks James Lunny

Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the Society.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 3

Conference 2013 Photos from our conference in Palmerston North in November, thanks to our secretary, Katrina Richards.

More can be seen on our facebook site at https://www.facebook.com/nzmetsoc, and scroll down and ind “recent posts by others “.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 4

Agenda for the 34 nd Annual General Meeting of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.) Wednesday, 20 November 2013. Convention Centre, The Square, Palmerston North.

The meeting opened at 5:36 pm and was chaired by Sam Dean (President). The minutes were taken by Katrina Richards (Secretary).

1. Attendance Alan Porteous, Andrew Tait, Ayoe Buus Hansen, Ben Liley, Brett Mullan, Daniel Kingston, Da- vid Wratt, Errol Lewthwaite, Gregor Macara, Howard Diamond, Jacqui Bridges, James Lunny, James Renwick, Jenny Salmond, Jim Salinger, Katrina Richards, Kim Dirks, Mike Revell, Neil Gordon, Paul Shucksmith, Pene Lefale, Richard Turner, Roger Davies, Sally Gray, Sam Dean, Tony Bromley.

2. Apologies Bob McDavitt, Brian Giles, Don Thompson, Geoff Austin, Georgina Grifiths, John Maunder, Ro- chelle Fleming, Rupert Wood, Shane Bilish, Simon Parsons, Sylvia Nichol, Duncan Ackerly.

3. Conirmation of the minutes of the previous AGM Sam Dean went through the previous minutes on the big screen. Motion that “The minutes of the previous AGM, held on the 19 th November 2012 be accepted as a true and correct record” proposed by Sam Dean, seconded by Jim Renwick – carried.

4. Matters arising from the last AGM a. The only matter following on from last year’s AGM was that, as voted, we raised subscription rates: Individual are now $40 and Institution rates are $120.

5. President’s Report (Sam Dean) Presidents Report to the 2013 AGM I'd like to begin by offering my whole-hearted thanks to the committee of 2013. After all these years working together it is still a wonderful experience to get to work with such an enthusi- Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 6 astic and dedicated group. Given that I was away overseas for a quarter of the year a number of people have had to take up the slack in my absence. If re-elected I promise to try harder to not disappear so much! Summary of activities The committee met 5 times this year. Membership As a means of addressing our falling membership numbers (238 as of this October) we have undertaken a couple of investigations. James Renwick held discussions with the physical Oceanographers about merging with our society (following the AMOS model in Australia). The response from the oceanographers was mixed, at best, with no clear cut advantages for them compared to remaining with the Marine Sciences. Bob McDavitt also held discussions with the Met Service about our proposal to cancel the MetService subsidy of $1200 and replace it with a system where membership of the society is paid by MetService (like NIWA). We are very pleased to announce that MetService has enthusiastically embraced this idea and approved annual payment for up to 100 members. Matching the $1300 will require us to get 27 members signed up, but full uptake would not only remove our current operating deicit but also return our membership to healthy levels. To ensure maximum uptake James Lunny has agreed to stand for nomination to the committee for the coming year. Website The new website has been up and running for a year. I think it looks great, though access speeds can be a little slow sometimes. Sylvia and Bob have led a process of getting all members signed up to the website and this is now complete for everybody except those without email addresses. As a result we are now using the site to post newsletters to the members and for emailing regional groups. The process of getting Weather and Climate online has progressed this year. We now have Volumes 1-10 (1981-1990) and 28-32 (2008-present) available online. The quality of the pdfs that Errol has produced for the older editions makes it a pleasure to read these old articles and the text searching works really well. This really is now a wonderful resource and our aim will be to have everything available by the next AGM.

Journal This year saw Volume 33 of Weather and Climate published. I personally found it a fascinating read, with articles on historical rainfall trends, projections of sea level rise, synoptic weather classiication and the use of non-professional weather stations for studying rapidly evolving storms. Not to mention a book review. My thanks to Brian and Jenny here. The standard of the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 7 journal is going from strength to strength. Regional meetings The vice-presidents have made leaps forward this year and have managed to collectively ad- vertise 34 seminars to members. Kidson Medal & Awards We received two nominations for the Kidson medal this year, however both were for members of the present committee. It was decided by the committee that it was clearly inappropriate for an oficer of the society (i.e. President, Treasurer, Secretary, Circulation manager) to be considered for a Kidson nomination. However there was less agreement regarding the nomination of a non-oficer. As such, no award was made is 2013. It was very pleasing to see Bob McDavitt receive an MNZM in the New Year’s honours list this year for services to meteorology and yachting. That's no excuse to rest on your laurels now Bob! Conferences The November 2012 conference was held at the Copthorne Hotel in Wellington. Once again I think that this went really well and the feedback has been positive. Thanks to James, Katrina and Andrew for their hard work in organising this. Once all payments were inally collected a very small proit was recorded. This year’s conference with the hydrological society should make a proit of about $4000. No plans have been made for the 2014 conference, which will be a task for the AGM to discuss. Two days ago we received an invitation to hold a joint conference with AMOS in February 2016, in Melbourne Australia. The last such conference was in Wellington in 2010 and was very successful. I am keen for this to happen but again will ask for guidance from the members at the AGM. I do believe that it requires a reasonable commitment from Metsoc members to make the trip across the ditch. Finally a special thanks to Katrina for taking over from me as secretary and doing an even better job. Best wishes to you all for the holiday season and the New Year ahead. Sam Dean President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (2013). ------In the discussion following the president’s report, concerning the “100 MetService members”, Jacqui Bridges said that she has already signed up 67 members and that we will get to 100. This got a round of applause from the loor and two thumbs up from the Secretary. [the 67 includes 11 existing members, so means 56 new members]

Sam reiterated that the committee feels it is inappropriate for a current oficer of the committee to be considered for a Kidson Medal. However, what about a non-oficer or general committee member? He suggested that this and the issue of future conference plans for 2014, 2015 and 2016 be discussed later in Other Business.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 8 6. Treasurer’s Report (Alan Porteous) Meteorological Society of New Zealand Annual Financial Report for the year ended 31 July 2013 Management Statement The Executive Committee has been responsible for the preparation of this inancial report which were approved by the Committee at their meeting on 20 November 2013. They fairly relect the Society’s inancial position and activities for the year ended 31 July 2013.

Independent Auditor’s Report To the Members of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand I have audited the attached inancial report of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand which comprise the balance sheet as at 31 July 2013, and the proit and loss account for the year then ended, and a summary of signiicant accounting policies and other explanatory information. Executive Committee’s Responsibility for the Financial Report The Executive Committee are responsible for the preparation of a inancial report that gives a true and fair view of the matters to which they relate and in accordance with generally accepted accounting practice in New Zealand and for such internal control as the Executive Commit- tee determine is necessary to enable the preparation of a inancial report that is free from material misstatement, whether due to fraud or error. Auditor’s Responsibility My responsibility is to express an opinion on this inancial report based on my audit. I conducted my audit in accordance with International Standards on Auditing (New Zealand). Those standards require that I comply with ethical requirements and plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance about whether this inancial report is free from material misstatement. An audit involves performing procedures to obtain audit evidence about the amounts and dis- closures in the inancial report. The procedures selected depend on the auditor’s judgement, including the assessment of the risk of material misstatement of the inancial reports, whether due to fraud or error. In making those risk assessments, the auditor considers internal control relevant to the entity’s preparation of inancial report that give a true and fair view of the matters to which they relate in order to design audit procedures that are appropriate in the circumstances, but not for the purpose of expressing an opinion on the effectiveness of the entity’s internal control. An audit also includes evaluating the appropriateness of accounting policies used and the reasonableness of accounting estimates, as well as evaluating the presentation of the inancial report.

I believe that the audit evidence I have obtained is suficient and appropriate to provide a basis for my audit opinion.

Other than in my capacity as auditor, I have no relationship with or interest in the Meteoro- logical Society of New Zealand.

Opinion In my opinion, the attached inancial report gives a true and fair view of the inancial position of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand as at 31 July 2013, and of its inancial perfor- mance for the year then ended in accordance with generally accepted accounting practice in New Zealand.

Peter Scholtens CA, Wellington, NZ, 20 November 2013

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 9 Proit and Loss Account for the year ended 31 July 2013 2013 2012 Income Subscriptions Received 9,618 10,106 Conference Surplus 756 151 Metservice Grant 0 1,200 Interest Received 1,695 1,804 Other Income 0 571 Total Income 12,069 13,832

Expenditure Audit fee 425 375 Student Conference Prizes 0 500 Newsletter 3,434 4,459 Other Expenses 434 266 P O Box 170 145 Royal Society NZ fees 1,242 1,242 Student Travel Grants 1,320 1,080 Weather and Climate 8,964 8,466 Web Page Development 0 2,140 Total Expenditure 15,989 18,673

(Deficit) of Income over Expenditure $(3,920) $(4,841)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand

Balance Sheet as at 31 July 2013

2013 2012 Accumulated Funds Balance 1 August 40,004 44,845 (Deficit) of Income over Expenditure (3,920) (4,841) Balance 31 July $36,084 $40,004

Represented by: Petty Cash 225 225 Cheque Account 2,884 1,482 Student Conference Fund Account 2,936 1,526 Accrued Interest 783 1,155 Grant Receivable 0 1,200 Term Deposits 39,210 37,264 46,038 42,852 Less Accounts Payable 9,954 2,848 $36,084 $40,004

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 10

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Inc BANK ACCOUNT CLOSING BALANCES 31 JULY 2013

Account Number Opening Balance Transfers Receipts Payments Interest Closing Balance Non Profit Org -000 1,482.47 9,000.00 14,932.98 -22,538.40 6.79 2,883.84 Term Deposit -03002 13,904.15 1,003.84 14,907.99 Term Deposit -03004 10,234.89 412.87 10,647.76 Term Deposit -03005 13,124.67 529.44 13,654.11 Bus First Oncall -066 1,527.01 -9,000.00 10,295.00 113.53 2,935.54 Petty cash 225.00 225.00 40,498.19 0.00 25,227.98 -22,538.40 2,066.47 45,254.24

CASH BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR 2013-14

CASH BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR 2013 -14 Actuals 2012 -13

INCOME Subscriptions (incl MetService bulk purchase) 13,500 9,618 Interest 1,400 1,690 Conference surplus 2,600 750 Other income 100 17,600 0 12,058

EXPENSES Weather and Climate incl. postage 9,000 8,964 Newsletters incl stat & post 3,200 3,434 Student travel grants and prizes 1,600 1,320 Charities Commission 51 51 Other expenses 500 434 Audit fee 455 425 Royal Society 1,242 1,242 Web page expenses 500 0 Post Office Box 170 16,718 170 16,040

882 -3,982

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 11 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Notes to the Financial Statements

The Meteorological Society of New Zealand is an independent group of weather enthusiasts whose aim is to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate as related to the New Zealand region.

Statement of General Accounting Policies These inancial statements have been prepared using the historical cost method. Accrual accounting has been used except as noted below, and reliance has been placed on the Society being a going concern.

Statement of Particular Accounting Policies Subscription receipts have been accounted for on a cash basis.

These inancial statements were prepared on a Goods and Services Tax (GST) inclusive basis.

The conference surplus is accounted for on a cash basis.

Interest income includes accrued interest on the term deposits as at balance date.

Changes in Accounting Policies There have been no changes in accounting policies. All accounting policies have been applied on bases consistent with the previous year.

Income Tax The Society is registered as a charitable entity so income tax is not payable. ------———————————------Following the presentation of the above inancial report, Alan added that: The conference in 2012 made a small proit. Subscription numbers have gone down. The MetService grant has been accrued back. The income from interest is about the same. This time there was no “other” income (the previous time was copyright income). Income is slightly less, expenses are slightly less, and there is a loss overall. Funds have decreased.

An animated dialogue followed, with several members entering into the discussion.

David Wratt asked, Will moving from a MetService grant to memberships make much difference? Alan replied that this is covered in the budget and it makes a substantial difference, especially as we are relying on MetService members to have email so that we can reduce printing costs.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 12 Neil Gordon asked, Is the RSNZ fee a lat fee, or would it go up as the number of MetService members increased? Sam said, Yes, it would and it’s a complex calculation.

Brett Mullan asked about the raised subscriptions. Sam and Alan clariied that the new rates voted for in the last AGM are invoiced in July and so will be in the 2013/2014 inancial year.

Regarding the 2013 conference, Alan said that the estimated surplus is around $1000. Sam pointed out that this should include the $1600 income directed to student travel expenditure, so the actual proit is about $2600. Alan will amend the budget to relect this—and make sure that student prizes are not listed as student travel—and will supply the corrected report for the minutes [the amended igures are reported here].

Jim Salinger offered his compliments to Alan on all the work he had done. Jim said he had a question concerning the philosophy of the society. We provide beneits to members, he said. In the past we have been tight on spending and have built up resources. Now we have social events. What is our philosophy? Sam replied that over the last few years our plan is not to grow our funds, but to let them run down. Our primary problem is not cash, but membership numbers. Jim pointed out that similar to many societies we need to bring up our use of social media, and suggested we raise this issue in Other Business.

Sam pointed out that our journal “Weather and Climate” takes almost the entire subscription income. There have been larger articles lately and more submissions. Sam said having an option for a paperless [digital] “Weather and Climate” will be discussed in Other Business. Alan added that using one colour and a smaller font keeps the cost down, so we have already done something towards reducing costs.

Motion that “The inancial report be accepted as a true and correct record ” proposed by Sam Dean, seconded by Jim Salinger – carried.

7. Election of Oficers (Andrew Tait) Nominations for Oficers of the Society for 2013/2014: President Sam Dean Auckland VP Jennifer Salmond Wellington VP James Renwick Christchurch VP Simon Parsons (provisional) Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston Secretary Katrina Richards

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Treasurer Andrew Tait Journal Editor Brian Giles; Jennifer Salmond Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt Circulation Manager Sylvia Nichol Webmaster James Sturman HydroSoc Liasison Charles Pearson General Committee Mike Revell; Kim Dirks; James Lunny

Andrew pointed out that we are looking for a VP for Christchurch as Simon is moving on; we will look for one during the year (no one at the AGM volunteered). Gareth and Duncan have been struggling to make meetings and have stepped down. James Lunny is new to the committee. There being neither further nominations nor conlicts for positions, Andrew declared “these ine people” to be duly elected.

There followed an amiable discussion about the structure of the committee and the wording of the constitution. As Sam looked it up on the webpage, he described the webpage as “brilliant”. He said people from HydroSoc have been looking at it and coming up to him saying “I wish we had one like that”. Sam described how Andrew has updated the online records of past conferences, committees, presidents and so forth. The wider general history of the society hasn’t been upgraded yet. Sam invited members to give feedback about the webpage.

The constitution is available at http://www.metsoc.org.nz/about/constitution-meteorological -society-nz-inc. It was noted we get 3 VPs [“each to be from a different part of the country”] and up to 4 general members, and it doesn’t mention a HydroSoc Liaison. David Wratt won- dered if, geographically speaking, Hamilton should have a VP. The general feeling from the meeting was that the current structure of the committee is OK.

9. Other Matters a. RSNZ Constituents Meeting (Kim Dirks) Kim Dirks attended this meeting in Wellington on 9 October, 2013. She reported that there was general discussion about Marsden Grants: low success rates, whether this funding will continue, and the large overheads charged, especially by universities. The RSNZ reiterated that they are there to support societies. They pointed out that we should ask for the $1000 grant from RSNZ every year [this offsets most of their fee]. They discussed getting the teaching community involved in RSNZ, and the new model for national science funding. Sam elaborated by saying the Constituents Meeting is once a year and we can send anyone we

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 14 like. Usually the President goes (Sam was unable to this year) and he pointed out that having Kim go each year provides continuity. b. MetService memberships (James Renwick) James Renwick described how Peter Lennox (chief executive of MetService) is very supportive of MetSoc. He wants 100 people to join, go to conferences, and submit to our journal—not just that MetService pays 100 subscriptions. James Lunny has been helping to get people to join up through our webpage. James Lunny told the AGM that the 100 is a commitment to a minimum amount, not a cap. This statement was very well received by the MetSoc President and assembled members. James pointed out that he can sort out any MetService individuals who paid their own subscription already. c. Options for Weather and Climate Sam described how, in the 2012 AGM, page charges for the journal were discussed to offset printing costs but this option did not happen. He suggested that now a paperless [digital] option for receiving the journal be considered. A general discussion followed on the savings to be made and logistics. It was noted that printing is now digital, we do the editing, so printing out hardcopies is the cost to us. Jim Salinger pointed out that the series “Climate Change” is encouraging people to get digital subscriptions; that is the way science journals are generally trending, and we should follow it. Richard Turner added that we have talked about this in the past, and there are now very few members who don’t have digital access. He suggested we hold off until the hard copies of old journals have been scanned and are on line but Andrew Tait thought that it is not necessary to wait—people will have hard copies of the older journals, we have already gone digital with new volumes as they come out, from 2008 onwards, with the latest volume being accessed by members only. [The gap in the scanned volumes is 1990-2008]. Sam pointed out that we have the paperless choice now for the newsletter. And, like the newsletter, we will still do both hardcopy and digital copies for “Weather and Climate” regardless. There was some discussion of printing costs and how these could be reduced. Sam noted that printing costs are growing. Alan has allowed $500 in the budget for this. Jenny suggested that as editors they could cap the number of papers and impose a word limit. Sam thought what is coming out now is really good and we don’t need to limit paper numbers. Jacqui Bridges said it is not so much numbers of papers, as numbers of copies printed. Sam Deans then focussed the discussion on how to move people to the paperless or “no” option (i.e. No as the answer to “Do you receive a paper copy?”). Sam was reluctant to make “no” the default as some older members still did not have email. Practicalities were raised: e.g. each time a new issue is out, we need to send an email to alert people to the link to the pdf

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 15 (David Wratt); we could send a Table of Contents alert, like some journals do (Daniel King- ston). James Lunny reported that Sylvia is holding back on issuing hardcopies to MetService members, anticipating they won’t need them. Jacqui Bridges suggested that they may only need two hardcopies for the MetService library, and none for individual MetService members. Sam conducted a vote by show of hands: A) make paperless the default, with members having to opt in to get a hardcopy, and B) make hardcopy the default, with members having to opt out to go digital. The vast majority saw option A as the way forward: only two voted for option B. The outcome is that the wishes of the AGM will be addressed at the next committee meeting. d. Engagement and social media Sam pointed out that we need to re-engage with the public because our membership is dropping. He sees this as a philosophical issue. Information is now available on the internet so people don’t join societies. We do professional activities like having a journal and conferences, but we also have public interest. The HydroSoc envies our coolness: they have no public, only people in the industry. The American Meteorological Society goes from strength to strength and engages the public. What is it that attracts them? Our charity status is based on our outreach. We do this well for members, but not much for the public. Sam challenged the committee to look at its public outreach. In the lively discussion that followed, it was pointed out that the AMS meeting is the Oscars of meteorology in the USA. They have young kids involved, students, the public, huge publicity and huge outreach. About 3000 people turn up and they have 93 years of engagement. It was also noted that in the UK there is a WAM festival (weather, arts and music, see http:// www.wamfest.co.uk/) – can we do this in Wellington? Jim Salinger described how he was involved in an Australasian organisation that brought in young people. They advised don’t ix a time for a meeting, don’t tell them when to meet, use social media and new approaches to engage them. These, said Jim, are the 20-30 year olds we should target. The older folk are already engaged. Sam said he hoped that the MetService members will bring more engagement and connec- tions, and we should make use of their usefulness. Younger members (such as Daniel King- ston) could also be useful with social media and engagement. David Wratt asked, What we want to do with our engagement? Sam replied that our aim is to share knowledge—it’s the basis of our charity status. e. 2014 conference Sam noted that we are due for a main centre conference in 2014, either in Auckland or Wel- lington. In the general discussion that followed it was pointed out that an Auckland conference would have to be timed to a small window after university examiners’ meetings in No- vember. It is also a long way to travel and would mean those on shift work at MetService Wel-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 16 lington couldn’t attend. On the other hand, air fares to Auckland can be cheap. It was suggested that a conference in Wellington would honour the MetService commitment and take advantage of new MetService members. The timing was queried: it needs to be after the audit and before the end of November, but it could be before November. Sam conducted a vote by show of hands: A) Wellington or B) Auckland. Everyone except for Sam voted for Wellington for 2014. f. ANZ Climate Forum David Wratt described how the ANZ Climate Forum meets every few years. They can be loose- ly classiied as climatologists and are not formally associated with any one group. They met in Hobart about three years ago and David volunteered New Zealand as a possible venue. He has recently been in contact with David Jones (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) who was involved at Hobart, and the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) Presi- dent. After each forum there is money left over in the order of tens of thousands of dollars for the next meeting—so there is funding. A meeting needs a topic not otherwise covered, e.g. extremes. It is best to go back-to-back with another meeting, because travel grants are hard to get for New Zealanders and Australians. David asked, Is there support for a meeting in New Zealand? Melbourne has been suggested for January 2016, backed onto the AMOS conference. In the following discussion, other possibilities were raised, such as an ANZ aerosols work- shop, Australasian wind engineering meeting, Southern Hemisphere comms meeting, or the AMS Southern Hemisphere meeting in Chile in 2015. Sam thought that AMOS is the priority. He said if we want Australians to come here, we need to go there. If part of AMOS could tap in- to the ANZ Climate Forum funding and add one day, we could send students. Jim Salinger pointed out that AMOS is very big and hard hitting and no longer a cosy meeting [for a student]. David Wratt suggested they not pick Climate Change as a topic, as this is well covered. He sup- ported the Australian idea—the committee should correspond with AMOS about this (if the NZ option goes ahead, he would help).

The meeting closed at 7:00 pm.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 17 Around the Regions: Seminars and Meetings in Spring 2013

Auckland: Tue 22 Oct: Living in a Warmer World – How Climate Change will affect our lives Dr. Jim Salinger (Auckland Climate Scientist) And Prof. Glenn McGregor (University of Auckland) And Dr. Jan Sinclair (Massey University, Albany) In Partnership with Generation Zero Climate Change Solutions Dr Jim Salinger’s new book, ‘Living in a warmer world’, brings together some of the world’s leading scientists to ind out how a changing climate will affect the world's rainfall, fresh water, glaciers, bio- diversity, viticulture, isheries, crops, livestock, sea levels, public health and safety and economic security. Jim, Glenn and Jan discussed the signiicantly new information available on how warmer temperatures are affecting physical planetary systems, and also human populations and economic security. Mention was made of the massive loss of glacier ice currently occurring in the Southern Alps, how plants and animals are moving around, where high quality vintages of red and white wines may be grown as the world warms, and why there is an urgent need for communities to begin planning to reduce the developing threats of global warming and climate change.

Wellington: 1st Oct: Water in the Netherlands Victoria University co-hosted a public lecture by world leading water expert Professor Hubert Saven- ije from the Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. See http://newzealand.nlembassy.org/news/2013/08/water-management-lecture-pr...

1 Oct: New approaches and techniques for runoff prediction VUW hosted a second seminar/discussion by Professor Hubert H.G. Savenije, leading water expert, President of the International Association for Hydrological Sciences and Professor of Hydrology at the Delft University of Technology. Societies rely in many ways on accurate assessment of water resources and on the prediction of high and low lows in rivers. In the Netherlands accurate prediction of lood levels is of key importance to people living in lood prone areas (about 60% of the country), while the water supply for agricultural, industrial and household use almost completely depends on river low from upstream. Realising that existing hydrological models are not accurate enough to provide reliable low estimates, a new landscape-based approach has been developed to improve the realism and accuracy of runoff prediction. This new approach is presently tested in a wide range of catchments including Europe, Asia and New Zealand. New instruments and technology is used to test the realism of these models, using dis- tributed temperature sensing (DTS), evaporation estimates from space and advanced tracers. An overview of these new approaches and techniques was presented, followed by a discussion on the relevance of these innovations for water resources management in New Zealand.

3 Oct: Tasmanian paleoclimates “Investigating the paleoclimates of Mount Field,Tasmania, with particular reference to the Chironomidae” by Dr Andrew Rees, Research Fellow in Paleoecology and Palaeoclimate, VUW The frontiers of paleolimnology are continuously being pushed back and old paradigms overturned. For instance, the North Atlantic region used to be considered the major driver of global climate. How- ever, records have emerged from the Southern Ocean and adjacent landmasses that highlight the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 18 complex interplay between hemispheres and the implicit discrepancies between terrestrial, marine and glacial systems. Ice core evidence from Greenland and Antarctica has been used to argue for anti- phased deglacial sequences between hemispheres; however, questions remain regarding how appli- cable the ice core templates are to low and middle latitudes. Research was presented that gives a small piece of that much larger puzzle: past climates of Mount Field, Tasmania. Positioned within the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, Tasmania is critically located to address speciic research questions. Does the region display a deglacial sequence resembling the North Atlantic, Antarctica or something completely unique?

10 Oct: The IPCC 5th Assessment Report – highlights and the inside story Speakers: Dave Frame, Tim Naish, James Renwick The major indings of the Working Group 1 (physical science) component of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) was made public on 27 September 2013. This talk summarised what’s new about the latest IPCC report and gave some insights into the writing process that brought us this 1000-page epic and its condensed ‘Summary for Policymakers’. The presenters were all Lead Authors on different chapters of the AR5 WG1 report. The planning for the AR5 began in 2009, with four sets of drafts completed since the irst authors’ meeting in November 2010. As well as summarising and assessing thousands of scientiic papers, the writing effort involved a lot of negotiation, word-smithing, and late-night [not-my-time-zone] teleconferences. This presentation will cover the science highlights and will also endeavour to convey the feel of the IPCC process and why it is a uniquely rewarding experience.

16 Oct: 'Thin Ice: The inside story of climate science' – ilm and discussion This 73-minute science documentary ilm was introduced by Peter Barrett and followed by a panel discussion on the public understanding of climate science chaired by Professor Jonathan Boston with panelists: Bryan Crump, Radio New Zealand Associate Professor James Renwick, Victoria University of Wellington Associate Professor Ralph Chapman, Victoria University of Wellington Judy Lawrence, Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington 'Thin Ice: The inside story of climate science', was launched on Earth Day, 22 April 2013, with over 200 sites world-wide and on all seven continents. The aim of the ilm was to give people from all walks of the life the chance to see the huge range of human activity and scientiic endeavour that is required to understand our changing climate. The ilm focuses on making the issue real, and the science credible, so that audiences will be better prepared and motivated to ind solutions. For more on the ilm see www.thiniceclimate.org

17 Oct : Living in a warmer world. Speaker: Jim Salinger The recently-published book 'Living in a Warmer World: How a Changing Climate Will Affect Our Lives', edited by Jim Salinger, was discussed. For more information on the book, see http:// www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7136.htm

14 Nov: Winds of change sweep the Southern Ocean NZ Antarctic Society - Sir Holmes Miller Memorial Lecture 2013, by Prof Lionel Carter. The Southern Ocean is best described by superlatives. It accommodates the largest and longest ocean current. It is the only ocean to connect the Atlantic, Indian and Paciic. It receives 70% of the wind energy that blows across the global ocean. Unsurprisingly, it is a powerful inluence on New Zea- land’s and the world’s climate and marine environment. The presentation explored this turbulent body of water through time and space including the South- ern Ocean’s present response to a rapid southward expansion of subtropical waters. This clash of po- lar and equatorial forces is bringing about major changes to the Southwest Paciic – it is an exciting time for anyone with an interest in the ice and ocean.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 19

20 Nov: Parameterizing Aerosol Production and Gas Exchange in Wind-Driven Seas NZCCRI Seminar Series, with speaker: Dr Grant Deane, Oceanographer, Scripps Institution of Ocean- ography, University of California, San Diego Accurate models of ocean-atmosphere coupling are central to accurate climate simulations. The exchange of heat, mass and momentum in wind-driven seas are all enhanced by breaking waves, giving this complex, non-linear process a central role in exchange processes. In particular, air bubbles en- trained by breaking waves enhance the exchange of greenhouse gases and are the dominant source of marine aerosols. They also form whitecaps – the transient, wet foam accompanying wave breaking – and whitecap coverage is the primary signal for parameterizing wind-driven exchanges. Despite its importance, the dependence of whitecap coverage on wave properties, the chemistry of the upper ocean boundary layer, and biology remains poorly understood. Recent results demonstrating the central role of surface chemistry in whitecap coverage and the production marine aerosols from whitecaps were presented. Biography: Dr Grant Deane received the B.Sc. and M.Sc. (Hons.) degrees in physics from Auckland University, Auckland, New Zealand in 1982 and 1983, and the D.Phil in mathematics from Oxford University, Oxford, U.K. in 1989. He was a Mellon Fellow at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla from 1990 to 1992. He has been a Research Oceanographer at SIO since 1995 and is the Director of the SIO Hydraulics Laboratory. His research interests include underwater acoustics, small-scale, upper ocean physics (wave breaking, turbulence, air entrainment and marine aerosol generation), and bioluminescence. Dr Deane is a Fellow of the Acoustical Society of America and a member of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society. He is currently an Associate Editor for the Journal of the Acoustical Society of America Express Letters.

Dunedin: 24 Sep: “Climate change, electricity and wind generation” Eric Pyle, CEO of the New Zealand Wind Energy Lunch time seminar hosted by the Otago Energy Research Centre. The world is changing and climate is changing with it. How does NZ stack up internationally in the ight to reduce carbon pollution? What are the options for reducing NZ’s CO2 emissions, and how can communities and councils help?

Eric outlined how wind generation is growing rapidly and making a real difference in reducing CO2 pollution internationally. He also presented an optimistic view about global progress and encouraged discussion on how New Zealanders can do their bit.

9 Oct: Running out of climate space by Dr Ralf Ohlemuller, Department of Geography, University of Otago

31 Oct : Living in a warmer world - Dr Jim Salinger The recently-published book 'Living in a Warmer World: How a Changing Climate Will Affect Our Lives', edited by Jim Salinger, was discussed. For more information on the book, see http:// www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7136.htm

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 20 NZ Met Society Photo Competition 2013 This year we decided to arrange our photo competition via Facebook, in an attempt to raise interest amongst our membership in sharing their ideas using this medium. 19 photos were uploaded and there were 11 votes (4 by email rather than via Facebook). ======The winning entry was submitted by Alex Judd of Wellington

“Photographed on a very stormy afternoon in Wellington, 10 Sep 2013, York Bay, Eastbourne.” Alex wins a copy of Peter Holland’s “Home in the Howling Wilderness: Settlers and the Environ- ment in Southern New Zealand” sponsored by Auckland University Press. Second prize goes to Lynne Finlay of Auckland- “The Waitemata harbour’s weather couldn’t make up its mind, so we had a bit of everything at once.” Lynne wins a copy of “The New Zealand Weather Book” by Erick Brenstrum, sponsored by Met- Service New Zealand. Six photos scored one vote each and so these were all judged third equal and are each awarded a copy of the MetService 2014 Weather Calendar, sponsored by MetService. These are (in no particular order): Jan McKenzie: “Intricate frost design on my black ute, Ranfurly, Central Otago, 26 March 2012” David Hardy: ”Sunrise at the start of a Nor’wester which provided dramatic velvety skies; New Brighton Pier, 2 July 2013” David Jones of Picton: “Clouds over hills south Wellington from Cook strait, 26 Aug 2013” Dougal Hilson of Nelson “Taken at sunrise from near Tasmna River looking towards Aoraki Mount Cook, as stormy weather approaches. I was amazed at the complex and ever-changing form of the Cirrostratus, Cirrocumulus, Altocumulus and Altostratus visible in this powerful weather system.” Nick Mcilroy of Canterbury: “Icy Lake Sarah” and Sophia Mckenzie of Taumarunui “Morning sunrise in the King Country, just out of Te Awamu- tu” Thanks to all those who contributed, and congratulations to the winners. The photos may still be viewed on our web site www.metsoc.org.nz, hover your mouse (or inger on a touch screen) on Awards and then click on Photo Competitions. Bob McDavitt for the NZ Met Society.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 21 NOTABLE WEATHER IN NEW ZEALAND – SPRING 2013 By Ben Tichborne

Both September and October were unsettled, with many active systems crossing over NZ. Two damaging northwesterly storms, one in September and the other in October were the most notable events of this season. November was more settled, with warm summery conditions in many areas, though thunderstorm activity was rather frequent at times.

SEPTEMBER 4th/5th - Cold southerly over South Island during 4th, with hail and snow showers to quite low levels (e.g. 200 -300m) in east. Care needed to the snow on alpine passes, while SH6 the Milford Road is closed. Blizzard conditions trap 136 people at Mt Hutt overnight, when access road is closed. Southerly gales briefly cause trees to fall and cut power near Lake Ellesmere in morning. Complex low over North Island on 4th moves away to northeast on 5th, with southerly gales overnight about Cook Strait and Taranaki. Disruption in both these areas, with power-cuts and the forced closure of New Plymouth Airport. Southeasterly gales in Westland. 9th - Snow on Milford Road with chains required for motorists using it. 10th/11th - Severe northwesterly storm with heavy rain and damaging winds. (see details below) 13th - Snow showers to quite low levels in far south. Only 4C maximum at Milford Sound, its lowest recorded September maximum. A tornado causes damage at Matapouri, northeast of Whangarei. 14th - Some snow flurries to low levels in far south. Icy -6C minimum recorded at Albert Burn, near Wanaka. 18th - Heavy frosts in many areas as high covers NZ in wake of rather cold southerly flow the day before. -5C minimum in Dunedin, -4C in Lumsden, and -2C in Paraparaumu. 20th - Severe thunderstorm in central NZ. Wellington region worst affected, with about 800 lightning strikes reported, causing power outages and airport disruptions. Torrential rain accompanies the storm, with extensive surface flooding. 22nd - Warm 23C maximum in Hastings. Thunderstorms with downpours affect Auckland and Waikato regions, due to warm unstable air coming from north. Rain causes localised flooding in parts of Auckland, while lightning strikes a house in Birkenhead, North Shore, and several cows are killed by a strike near Kihikihi. 24th - Unseasonably high 20C maximums in Greymouth and Hokitika. 24th -26th - Deep low brings heavy rain and gales to many North Island areas. (see details below) 27th - Warm 21C maximum in Leigh. 28th/29th - Westerly gales in many parts of the North Island, gusts reaching 89 km/hr in Tauranga and 87 km/hr in Whanganui (both on 28th). A man is injured when his truck is blown off the road in the Horowhenua on the 29th. The winds ease during the 29th.

OCTOBER 1st/2nd - Heavy rain in Fiordland and South Westland, e.g. SH6 closed again through Haast Pass, due to more slips. A period of northwesterly gales in Fiordland (154 km/hr gust at Puysegur Point), Southland and South Otago. Warm 25C maximum in Cheviot. 4th/5th - Light airflow from lower latitudes results in warm temperatures in northern North Island, e.g. 24C maximums at Motu (4th) and Leigh. (5th) 8th - Thunderstorms in north of North Island. Late afternoon /downburst (reported in some media as a tornado) causes damage to trees and properties in Devonport. Heavy rain in north of South Island, e.g. 91mm in Motueka. Snow to low levels in inland Canterbury, including Hanmer, Methven, and Darfield. SH73 between Springfield and Arthurs Pass closed later in the day. Unseasonably cold daytime maximums, e.g. only 0C at Arthurs Pass, 5C at Le Bons Bay (new October record), 6C in Ashburton, and 7C at Christchurch Airport and Cheviot. A chilly 9C maximum in Greymouth, but by contrast a mild 17C at Milford Sound where it's sheltered from the cold airflow. 9th - Cold southerly eases in South Island, but only 8C maximum in Ashburton and 9C in Kaikoura. Cold change moves onto North Island, with gales about Cook Strait resulting in disruption to Air- port operations and harbour ferries. Only 9C -10C maximums in Taranaki. Fresh snow on the mountains. 10th - Unseasonably heavy frosts in Canterbury in wake of departing cold southerly, eg -4C minimum at Christchurch Airport, and -3C in Timaru. 11th - West to northwest gales in north of North Island, e.g. 76 km/hr gust in Pukekohe.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 22 13th - 15th - Another northwesterly storm. (see details below) 18th - Northwesterly gales in some inland South Island areas and about Cook Strait. 20th - Heavy rain in Fiordland. 21st - Thunderstorms with heavy rain in South Westland and Fiordland. Warm 27C maximums in Hawkes Bay. (28C in Wairoa) 22nd - West to northwest gales in central and lower North Island, making Rimutaka Hill and Desert Roads hazardous. Heavy rain in King Country and Taranaki, disrupting traffic on SH43 between Stratford and Taumaranui. 24th/25th - Northwesterly gales in several areas, e.g. inland eastern South Island and about Cooks Strait, affected many roads. Heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps, with flooding affecting SH73 between Arthurs Pass and Kumara Junction. (which is closed on 25th) Warm in Canter- bury, e.g. 28C maximum in Riccarton, Christchurch. Record October high overnight minimum of 15C at Milford Sound on 24th. 25th/26th - Snow in Fiordland, closing SH94 to Milford Sound on 26th. 26th - Yet more severe northwesterly gales in mid -Canterbury, with trees again felled and powers to many areas, including northwestern outskirts of Christchurch. 27th - Snow showers to low levels in far south, as low as 100m in parts of Southland as well as flurries through the day in Queenstown. Little snow settling at lower levels, but considerable coatings on the mountains. Milford Road remains closed. Only 6C maximum in Queenstown, and 8C at Milford Sound. However, record high overnight October minimum of 14C in Kaikoura. 31st - Northwesterly gales and heavy rain about lower North Island and Cook Strait. Winds cause disruption at Wellington Airport, while slips affect Rimutaka Hill Road and Kapiti Coast.

NOVEMBER 1st - Cool, disturbed southwesterly flow over NZ. Some thunder and hail in parts of Canterbury, with large hailstones in Geraldine. Frosts in sheltered inland South Island areas, e.g. -2C minimum in Hanmer. Meanwhile sub Antarctic Campbell Island shivers with only a 3C maximum, its lowest for November since records began in 1971. 6th - Southeasterly gales in Westland, making road conditions hazardous on SH6 between Harihari and Haast. However, these foehn winds also result in warm temperatures on West Coast, with 24C maximums in Westport (equal highest November record) and Hokitika. 7th - Thunderstorms in northern and central North Island, with surface flooding in places. (e.g. parts of Auckland, northern Waikato, and western Bay of Plenty) Warm again on South island West Coast, with 27C maximum in Reefton. 8th - Thunderstorms again in north of North Island. Sea fog about Cook Strait, spreading into Welling- ton at times and disrupting airport operations. 10th - Heavy rain in Fiordland and South Westland. Warm in east of South Island ahead of cold front, e.g. 29C maximums in Blenheim and Cheviot. However Front brings a cool southerly change in afternoon to lower South Island, with Oamaru quickly dropping from 26C to 15C. 11th - Warm 28C maximum in Kawerau and 26C in Te Puke (equal November record), but only 12C in Ashburton under a cool southerly flow. 18th - Thunderstorms in many North Island areas and Marlborough, with surface flooding in some central North Island areas. 19th - Warm northerly flow results in summery maximum temperatures in some areas, e.g. 26C in Whanganui, 30C in Clyde, and 25C at Manapouri. More thunderstorms in northern and central North Island. Lightning believed to have started a scrub fire near Kawerau. Hail reported at Bom- bay. 21st - Small tornado hits Hastings suburb, but causes little damage. 22nd -24th - Very warm in many areas, especially in north of North Island, due to warm air mass and high pressure over NZ. Maximums in mid -high 20s in many places, with new November records broken in Kaitaia (26C on 22nd), 25C in Whapaparoa (25C on 24th), Mangere, Auckland (26C on 23rd), and Ruakura, Hamilton. (28C on 23rd) 27th - Thunderstorms in many parts of North Island. Onshore east to northeast flow keeps Dunedin to a chilly 12C maximum, but sheltered from this flow, Milford Sound records a balmy 24C. (and reach- es the same high the next day) 28th - Heavy rain in Wairarapa, with slips closing Rimutaka Hill Road for a time. 30th - Some evening thunder and hail in Mid Canterbury. Cold southwesterlies in southern South Is- land, with snow showers about the ranges.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 23 MAJOR EVENTS

10th -12th September - Severe northwesterly storm with heavy rain and damaging winds

While very strong northwesterly flows are not uncommon in spring, this one was unusually severe.

During the early hours of the 10th, high pressure to the north of the North Island moved eastward, while pressures were very low to the south. A northwesterly flow quickly developed over the South Island as fronts moved into the Tasman Sea. The pressure gradient became very tight during the morning, with severe gales developing in Otago and Southland, and spreading to Mid and South Canterbury by afternoon. However, the worst of the winds hit as a cold front moved onto the island, intensifying the northwesterly flow ever further, with record gusts for September at Christchurch Airport (133 km/hr), Ashburton (128 km/hr), and Oamaru. (107 km/hr)

The hurricane force gusts not surprisingly caused much damage. In Otago, two trucks were overturned, and roofs uplifted at the University of Otago. In Canterbury, where the strongest winds struck during the afternoon and evening, there was even more extensive damage. Many trees were uprooted along the plains, crashing onto power -lines. This resulted widespread power outages with about 28,000 properties without power including some outlying Christchurch suburbs. Other damage included vegetation fires, damage to over 800 irrigators, and an ostrich was killed at Christchurch's Willowbank Wildlife Reserve.

The fronts in this northwesterly storm also brought heavy rain to the South Island West Coast and Southern Alps, with 253mm recorded at Mt Cook Village, 247mm at Arthurs Pass, and 81mm inn Reefton. Flooding made SH6 between Haast and Fox Glacier hazardous. The rain was accompanied by thunderstorms, one of which set fire to a house in Fox Glacier Township. Some of these storms crossed over into Canterbury (a few even reaching Christchurch) overnight 10th/11th, with lightning strikes caused scrub fires and destroying a tree at Burkes Pass.

During the 11th, the winds eased and the flow turned westerly over the South Island. However, the wet weather on the West Coast, resulted in a slip on SH6 through the Haast Pass, which killed a couple when their campervan was washed away. Colder air moved onto the far south, with snow closing the Milford Road. By contrast, Kaikoura recorded a summery 24C maximum.

In the North Island, persisting high pressure to the northeast slowed down the progress of the fronts on the 11th, with severe northwesterly gales causing damage in the Cook Strait and Wairarapa areas. Trees toppled onto roads, houses, and railway lines, while operations at Wellington Airport were disrupted (all do- mestic flights cancelled) The highest recorded gust was 165 km/hr at Cape Turnagain.

On the 12th, the fronts and northwesterly flow finally weakened over the North Island. Gales in the east of the North Island (which reached 96 km/hr in Napier), eased during the day. However, in Canterbury, the legacy of the winds was to last much longer, with some areas not having power reconnected until two weeks later. Some $68 million in insurance claims were lodged in the wake of this event.

Mean sea -level analyses for midnight NZST 9th September to midday NZST 12th September in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 24

24th -26th September - Deep low brings heavy rain and gales to many North Island areas

A deep low, coming from the north, brought a period of heavy rain and severe gales to many North Island areas

The low (not a tropical cyclone) formed in the tropical Pacific over the previous few days, but during the 24th, it deepened considerably as it moved south to reach the northern North Island by later in the day. This resulted in a very strong easterly flow developing over the island (tending southerly in the far north), with severe gales in many areas. Trees were felled in parts of Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula, and Hauraki Plains, with some 6600 properties without power for a time in Auckland. Paeroa recorded a gust of 106 km/hr.

The depression moved south to cover most of the North Island during the 25th, and gales continued through the 25th in many areas, with southerlies intensifying about Cook Strait (120 km/hr gust recorded at Cape Campbell) and southwesterlies in Northland. The winds damaged a waterfront venue in central Auck- land, while some 7000 properties lost power in the western Bay of Plenty and Coromandel Peninsula.

The low also brought warm, moist air with it, which resulted in heavy rain in the north and east of the North Island. Flooding and slips caused disruption in several areas, especially in the east of the island. High rainfall totals included 84mm in Leigh and 105mm in Warkworth, both on the 24th.

By contrast, this system also produced a foehn easterly flow onto the South Island West Coast, which resulted in unseasonably warm maximums of 21C in Haast (25th) and 19C in Greymouth. (24th)

Conditions eased on the 26th, as the low moved away to the southeast, with a west to southwest flow covering the North Island.

Mean sea -level analyses for midnight NZST 23 rd September to midday NZST 26th September in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 25

13th - 15th October - Another northwesterly storm

Another severe northwesterly storm battered the country during this period causing more damage, with the Cook Strait area worst affected this time.

Like in September, this storm began with a high to the north of the North Island, and a trough moving into the South Tasman Sea. A westerly flow over NZ turned northwesterly over the South Island, with winds reaching gale in the far south later in the day.

Isobars tightened over NZ overnight and into the 14th, with very strong northwestelies spreading over the rest of the country as a trough and fronts moved onto the country. Severe gales lashed eastern areas of both islands with damage to properties and trees. This time Cook Strait was the worst affected. Airport operations were disrupted, trees felled, and power cut to hundreds of homes. SH2 over the Rimutaka Hill was closed. Similar disruption occurred elsewhere in central NZ, and in the east of the South Island, where the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 26 damage compounded that from the September storm. Gusts reached 126 km/hr at Wellington Airport, 96 km/hr in Palmerston North, 91 km/hr in Nelson, 93 km/hr at Blenheim Airport, and 98 km/hr at Timaru Airport.

Meanwhile, thunderstorms and heavy rain affected areas about and west of the Southern Alps (some thunderstorms crossed the Alps to reach Central Otago and inland Canterbury) SH6 through the Haast Pass was closed by slips again and hazardous due to flooding between Harihari and Haast, as was SH73 from Ar- thurs Pass to Kumara. Heavy rain also developed in the central and southwestern North Island high country later, with 61mm recorded in Ohakune.

During the 15th, the stormy conditions spread to the north of the North Island, with gales causing some damage, particularly in the Auckland region (including airport disruptions and some downed power -lines) High gusts included 102 km/hr at Motu, 100 km/hr in Mangere, Auckland, and 96 km/hr in Paeroa. Heavy rain in the central and western North Island caused rivers to flood, including the Whanganui which forced several Whanganui city properties to be evacuated. The settlement of Turakina Beach was isolated by floodwaters, while many roads from Taranaki to the Horowhenua were affected by flooding and slips.

Behind the trough, a cold, disturbed southwesterly flow spread over the South Island on the 14th, with snow showers as low as about 400m in the far south (closing the Milford Road - Milford Sound reached only 7C on the 15th) The southwesterlies spread over the North Island later on the 15th, but the weather then eased over the country.

Mean sea -level analyses for midnight NZDT 12th October to midday NZDT 15th in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 27

MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH – SPRING 2013

SEPTEMBER Many active troughs and lows crossed over this month, resulting in changeable conditions (including a severe northwesterly storm), though temperatures, sunshine and rainfall ended up near normal. An anticy- clone at the start of the month was followed by a trough and low on the 5th/6th, which brought cold, wet southerlies with snow on Banks Peninsula hills and the upper plains. From then until mid -month, westerly quarter flows predominated. The severe northwesterly storm on the 10th saw winds up to hurricane force for a time in many parts of Canterbury, with a period of severe gales in Christchurch in the evening. These winds caused damage in the city, but even worse inland, with many trees felled and power lost for a long time in places. By contrast, Banks Peninsula was largely unscathed, with winds only briefly reaching gale -force. Another notable feature of this storm was the fact that thunderstorms managed to cross the mountains to reach the city overnight and during the morning of the 11th.

OCTOBER Westerly or northwesterly flows were a dominant feature of this month, resulting in above normal temperatures. Like September, there was a severe northwesterly storm which caused further damage on the Canter- bury Plains to add to the earlier windstorm, but this time Christchurch was largely unaffected. Northwester- ly gales did affect the city on the 26th, with some more damage on the outskirts and in rural areas. By contrast there was some cold, wet weather on occasions, enough to push rainfall totals to slightly above normal. The most notable of these was from the 7th -9th, with snow to low levels inland and on higher Banks Peninsula hills (which also received dustings overnight on the 16th and 28th) Thunderstorms affected northwestern parts of the city on the 12th, and there was some hail on the 15th.

NOVEMBER Conditions were more settled this month, with more high pressure to the east and southeast and conse- quently more northeasterly flows. This kept the monthly sunshine total below average, even though it was drier than normal. Warmer than normal nights meant that the monthly mean temperature was above normal, though days were often cool. The only weather of note was a thunderstorm with hail in northwestern parts of the city on the 1st. (Thunderstorms also affected mid -Canterbury on the 30th)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 28 Hundreds trapped at NZ ski resort by bad weather September 4, 2013 Nicole Mathewson The Press http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/hundreds-trapped-at-nz-ski-resort-by-bad-weather-20130904-2t51p.html#ixzz2q4fum9Ed Make your own fun ... trapped students from Mt Hutt College enter- tain themselves.

Mt Hutt Ski Area manager James McKenzie said the access road to the mid-Canterbury ski ield was closed about 11.30am on Wednes- day because high winds and low visibility made getting down the mountain too dangerous. Hundreds will be spending the night atop Mt Hutt due to bad weather. The 316 people caught at the ield were keeping warm in the main building, and the magic carpet area for beginners remained open this afternoon for those keen to keep enjoying the snow. Those stuck on the mountain included 270 staff, and parents and pupils from Methven's Mt Hutt College. (Abridged)

Blowing hot and cold: Warm winter but cool spring 04/09/201 http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/9122051/ Blowing-hot-and-cold

BARRY HARCOURT/Fairfax NZ Spring snow near Te Anau Southland has had its warmest winter on record but the start of spring is proving chilly. Niwa principal scientist Dr Brett Mullan said mean temperatures in Southland and parts of Otago were more than 1.2 degrees Celsi- us above the winter average. The nationwide mean temperature was also 1.2C above the winter average, making it New Zealand's warmest winter on record since 1909, he said. However, spring has brought a cool change. (Abridged)

Dozens of wildire blazes broke out in New South Wales on Tuesday. Aljazeera 10 Sep 2013 Seven ireighters have been injured battling blazes in New South Wales, after 40 ires broke out on Tuesday. At least one home has been destroyed and a number of cars have also been ruined. More than 500 ireighters tackled the bushires, which ignited after a very long period of warmer than average weather. Australia has just experienced its warmest 12 month period on record. The average temperature throughout the country in the year up to August 31 was 1.1C above the long-term average.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 29 The three months ending February 28, 2013 were the hottest summer months ever recorded in Aus- tralia. This brought unprecedented heat waves, bushires and loods, which a government commission dubbed the "Angry Summer". This is a very early start to the bushire season and is a stark contrast to the recent weather over Vic- toria and Tasmania. Heavy rain and strong winds have been pounding the region, with Mount Read reporting 71mm of rain. (Abridged)

Deluge in 2011 was our worst: study MATT STEWART 10/09/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/9144661/Deluge-in-2011-was-our-worst-study CHRIS SKELTON/Fairfax NZ BURIED: Farmer manager Kevin Davis surveys the damage at Wainui Bay, Golden Bay, in December 2011.

Locals knew the 2011 Golden Bay and Nel- son loods were bad, but new global research shows the devastating deluge was the worst 48-hour rainfall recorded so far in urban New Zealand. The report is part of collaboration between Niwa and the United States and British meteorological services entitled Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 From a Climate Perspective. Niwa's lead scientist on the study, Sam Dean, said the loods in Golden Bay and Nelson in December 2011 were triggered by an intense "atmospheric river of moisture" that chan- nelled super-humid sub-tropical air directly into the region. The study described the "staggering" torrent overwhelming streams and swamping the landscape with mud and debris. The study was helping climatologists understand "how the greenhouse gases already emitted into our shared atmosphere are inluencing the extreme events we are now experiencing in our own backyard," Dr Dean said. Scientists found the amount of moisture available in creating the disaster was expected to be up to ive per cent higher because of human-induced greenhouse gases. Adding to the near-ideal lood conditions was a high lingering to the east of the ultra-damp low, which "ixed" the system and settled it in place. "Moisture-laden air from the sub-tropics went straight to New Zealand - it collided with the coastal hills of Golden Bay and Nelson, dumping a massive amount of rain," Dr Rosier said. Takaka received 453mm of rain in 24 hours, and a record 674mm in 48 hours. Niwa used different computer model simulations both with and without the effects of climate change and found greenhouse gas emissions had boosted available moisture in the atmospheric rivers that dump heavy rain over Golden Bay and Nelson. (Abridged)

Spring storm starts to bite in South Tue, 10 Sep 2013 http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/272366/spring-storm-starts-bite-south

Fiordland is "lighting up like a Christmas tree" and rivers are rising rapidly in Southland, while what is thought to have been a tornado lipped a boat and smashed it in Central Otago . MetService has issued severe weather warnings for the lower half of the country, as an active front approaches the South Island before moving over the lower North Island tomorrow. "There's a lot of lightning in the south. It's lighting up like a Christmas tree across Fiordland and

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 30 that's the start of this very active front," said MetService metrologist Daniel Corbett. "It's almost like having a ire hose turned on. They're going to be in for easily a couple of hundred of millimetres of rain over there," Mr Corbett said. (Abridged)

'Intense' winds move up the country Tuesday September 10, 2013 Source: ONE News / Fairfax http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/intense- winds-move-up-country-5578973 A wild, windy storm is working its way up the country, blowing gale force winds and dumping torrential rain. Over 100mm of rain has fallen in some places and winds have reportedly reached up to 230km/h in the Canterbury high country. The wind storm has emergency service in Canterbury under pressure. All appliances are out and additional crews have been called back into duty. More than 2000 lightning strikes have been recorded and lights at Dunedin and Queens- town airports have been cancelled. Hundreds of homes are without electricity as gales bring down power lines, and MetService predicts the worst of the wind, expected to be "intense and damaging", is yet to come. A truck blown over by strong winds - Source: ONE News Wind gusts are already reaching speeds of 130km/h in some areas around Wellington, with forecasters predicting they could get up to 140km/h in the city and the Wairarapa. At that strength they are likely to bring down trees and more power lines, MetService said. "For many of us it's going to be a stormy night, a windy night to come particularly across southern and central parts of New Zealand," said MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett. All motorists are advised to take extra care in the wind, especially for motorcycles and high-sided ve- hicles, after two accidents involving trucks blown over this afternoon, one on Dunedin's Northern Motorway and the other just north of Maheno. In the Dunedin incident, the empty truck was picked up by the wind and rolled across the highway. 'Twister' rips through Otago Jade McLellan of Pisa Moorings in Cromwell in central Otago says a twister ripped through her yard around 11am, tossing a boat across her yard. "It lifted our pontoon boat off its trailer, lipped it a couple times and then dumped it on our next door neighbours lawn, about 10 metres from their house," she told ONE News. "It's a real smorgasbord of weather this week, with gales, heavy rain and some pretty active thunderstorms in places," MetService communications meteorologist John Law said. (Abridged)

150kmh gusts, power out, planes diverted 11/09/2013 TOM HUNT, CALEB HARRIS AND ALEX FENSOME Dominion Post http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/9150859/Wind-gusts-close-in-on-150kmh-mark

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 31

CALEB HARRIS/Fairfax NZ A truck damaged by high winds on Matahiwi Rd near Masterton. Thunder and rain are on their way to join the powerful winds that have downed powerlines, damaged property, diverted lights and overturned multiple trucks today. Northwesterly winds were still gusting at 80kmh at Wellington Airport at 1pm today - a slight drop from overnight but not cause to believe the wind was abating, MetService forecaster John Law said. The wind would continue until early tomorrow with heavy rain and possibly some thunder coming later today. The heaviest rain was forecast for between 7pm and 8pm in Wellington today. Rongotai College in Wellington's eastern suburbs had two roofs blowing off this morning. MetService meteorologist Richard Finnie said gusts reached 146kmh on the Rimutaka Hill Rd last night. At 6am it was gusting at 130kmh on the hill between Upper Hutt and Wairarapa. WAIRARAPA THRASHED BY WEATHER Earlier today strong winds plucked a truck and trailer off State Highway 2 north of Masterton and threw it into a pine plantation, destroying 100m of fence and scattering freight among trees. A police spokesman said two other trucks and a campervan had also since been blown over this afternoon. Wild weather in Wairarapa has already seen nine call-outs for Featherston ire station and more damage is expected as high winds continue. Wairarapa power supplier Powerco said gusts of up to 120kmh broke power poles and brought trees and branches down on lines overnight, causing power cuts to 2500 Wairarapa homes. (Abridged)

Thousands to spend night without power in Canterbury Wednesday September 11, 2013 Source: ONE News / Fairfax http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/thousands-spend-night-without-power-in-canterbury-5579996

Thousands of Cantabrians are preparing to spend the night without electricity, with lines companies estimating power will not be restored until tomorrow at the earliest.

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Around 15,000 homes in rural areas west of Christchurch are still without power after strong winds caused extensive damage to power lines overnight. Likewise around 6000 homes in the MainPower area, which covers North Canterbury and Kaikoura, will likely be without power overnight. Alpine Energy also advises customers that there are widespread outages across South Canterbury. The power outages are of concern to farmers, who water their cows using electrically-powered systems. Federated Farmers is asking anyone with a spare generator to get in touch, even if they don't live in the area. Also of concern was around 250 pivot irrigators that have tipped over in heavy winds Parts to repair the irrigators will need to be imported and many will be out of action more several months, which has major implications for dairy farming. (Anridged)

Storm sparks fires across Canterbury, 30,000 without power 11 September 2013 Radio NZ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/221152/storm-sparks-ires-across-canterbury,-30,000-without-power A fallen pole in Tees St, Oamaru. Photo: JOHN RAPSON Off-duty ireighters have been called back to work in Canterbury to ight blazes sparked by the wild weather and more than 30,000 properties are without power. Christchurch police are warning people not to travel at all around Canterbury because so much debris is lying around and weather and road conditions are so bad. Electricity lines crews are unable to work because conditions are too dangerous and Christchurch Airport has closed. The spate of ires stretches from North Canterbury to Timaru, started by trees falling on lines, as well as lines arcing. Severe electrical storms are also hitting much of the region. A Fire Service spokesperson says all available engines and ireighters are working.

Widespread power cuts Lines company Orion says 28,257 customers don't have power. It says the Selwyn district west of Christchurch has been one of the worst affected areas but there are now outages in the city as well. Another lines company, Mainpower, says at least 2,000 of its customers in North Canterbury will spend the night with no power and it expected Kaikoura to lose electricity overnight too. Alpine Energy says about 1,000 of its customers around Waimate, Geraldine and Fairlie in South Canterbury will not have power overnight. Chief executive Andrew Tombs says the winds are so strong and dangerous workers trying to repair the faults were stood down. "To be snapping poles and even down in the Waimate region where we believe a pivot irrigation scheme was tumbled by the wind into our poles you've got to be getting up 150 kilometres an hour, perhaps in gusts even higher than that." Aurora Energy says electricity supply was briely cut to almost 1,700 properties in Arrowtown, Daleield and Coronet Peak after a lightning strike earlier in the day. It said later in the day a small number of homes were still without power in Mosgiel, south of Dunedin. (Abridged)

Spring Storms Thursday September 12, 2013 Source: Breakfast http://tvnz.co.nz/breakfast-news/thursday-september-12-5581221

Spring storms are inching their way up the country. MetService's Dan Corbett will keep us updated during the show

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30 trees were uprooted at a Loburn property in the storm - Source: Maree Dowall

Haast Pass slip: 'Back to square one' Saturday Sep 14, 2013 APNZ http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm? c_id=1&objectid=11124781&ref=rss Heavy rain overnight has caused another major slip on Haast Pass, forcing the road to stay closed until at least Monday and putting work "back to square one'', the New Zealand Transport Agency says. The route has been shut to motorists since Wednesday, after stormy weather caused major damage, including a 50 metre high slip at Diana Falls. Snow and heavy rain overnight has brought down almost as much debris again as from Wednesday's slip, which is thought to have produced 500 tonnes of debris, said NZTA West Coast area manager, Mark Pinner. Three large boulders, which Mr Pinner described as about the size of houses, were perched above the slip site causing concern. (Abridged)

The slip on State Highway 6 between Haast and Makarora. Photo / NZTA

Keep an eye on the forecasts, says Niwa SANDRA FINNIE 18/09/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/9175372/Keep-an-eye-on-the-forecasts-says-Niwa

Fairfax NZ TOUGH GOING: A sheep deep in Canterbury snow during 2013. Although farmers have experienced a warmer-than-usual winter, they still need to keep abreast of current forecasts and be prepared for extremes, said Dr Andrew Tait, principal scientist climate NIWA. Dr Tait said while Niwa could give out seasonal and short- range forecasts, there was little opportunity to forecast extreme weather, such as that mentioned below, well ahead of time. Spring climate summaries in Niwa's NZ historic weather events catalogue yield a few surprises after August and imply complacency is not an option. For example: -September 1970 - heavy snowfalls in the South Island disrupt communications, close roads and result in heavy stock losses.

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-August 1973 - heavy snow in Canterbury and Otago results in major stock losses, damage to buildings and communications, and road closures. -September 1994 - snow over the lower South Island. -December 1995 - the lower South Island cops heavy snow, and during the same month in 1994, heavy snow results in the loss of 50,000 lambs in high-country areas. -September 2010 - seven days of storms lash the country and dump heavy snow in the South Is- land, resulting in heavy stock losses. Examples of signiicant snowfalls, storms and cold temperatures to hit Southland in spring since 2001 include: -2004 - snow falls to low levels with low temperatures on September 18-19 in inland areas of Southland and Otago. Thousands of newborn lambs die of exposure. There were good dumps of snow in Queenstown at the Coronet Peak ski ield and further south into Alexandra, Central Otago, in early September, and cold southerlies in Buller, Marlborough, Canterbury and Otago on Septem- ber 20-21. -2006 - southerly outbreaks with hail and late-spring snows in November. Cold southerlies bring snow down to 200m in the South Island, including Queenstown and Geraldine, on November 8. In November a cold blast hits the South Island and blankets inland Southland, Fiordland and Central Otago with snow and hail. Locals say it's the irst time since the 1970s they've seen that much snow in November. -2009 - record low spring minimum temperatures recorded across New Zealand. -2010 - an intense southwesterly brings snow to very low levels in the far south and record low temperatures. On September 18 heavy snow causes the roof of Stadium Southland to collapse and damages other commercial buildings. Fonterra is unable to collect milk from more than 400 dairy farmers in Edendale, Winton and Eastern Southland because of dangerous roads. Thousands of lambs are lost, with reports of lambing losses of up to 80 per cent. -2012 September 11 , snows again cause disruption in Southland, South Otago and Dunedin.

Coromandel battered by subtropical storm Tue Sep 24 2013 AAP http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8728163/light-warning-as-storm-rolls-in

A Civil Defence warning has been issued as a storm sweeps across New Zealand. The Coromandel is getting a battering as a subtropical storm bringing strong winds, heavy rain and high tides lashes the upper North Island. "The Coromandel's getting a bit of a whack. There's quite a few trees down and roads closing with looding," a northern ire communications spokesman told NZ Newswire. Further north, a large slip has partially blocked State Highway 1 south of Warkworth. Police say State Highway 25 north and south of Thames has been closed because of the incoming tide, which peaks at 10pm. Auckland Council and civil defence say tides are expected to be signiicantly higher than forecast, with coastal looding possible later on Tuesday evening. MetService issued a number of severe weather warnings on Tuesday for northern and eastern areas of the North Island. (Abridged)

Twisters spinning in more often By Jamie Morton Thursday Sep 26, 2013 www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11130136

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More tornadoes are arriving than have been seen for four decades, a scientist says. Tornado expert Dr Richard Turner, of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said more tornadoes had been reported over the past decade than during the 1980s and 1990s combined. "We're seeing more than we've seen for 40 years," he writes in the latest edition of Niwa magazine Water and Atmosphere. "We're experiencing about the same frequency as occurred during the 50s and 60s." An average of seven to 10 moderate to strong tornadoes (each year) had been reported in recent years, and six people had been killed within the past nine years. Auckland is hit by a tornado on average less than once a year, but there is much variation from year to year. A tornado that ripped through Hobsonville last year killed Keith Langford, Brendon Johnson and Tom Stowers when they were crushed beneath concrete slabs at a construction site. The twister also damaged 400 homes and cost $8.7 million in insurance claims, $3.5 million in damaged lines and $1.5 million in council clean-up efforts. It reached 151km/h - mid-range for a typical tornado, which usually lasts for a few minutes and is highly localised, tracking across land for just a few kilometres over a path tens of metres wide. Another lethal tornado struck at Frankton, Hamilton, in 1948, carving a 100m to 200m swathe through the suburb and killing three people. It was ranked as an EF2 twister with winds between 150km/h and 200km/h. Dr Turner said the history of tornadoes here had not been studied in detail and because many went unobserved it was dificult to identify trends and relate them to weather patterns such as La Nina or the Paciic Decadal Oscillation. "It's hard to ascertain, especially from old newspaper accounts, the actual wind phenomena that caused damage," he said. "For instance, damage caused by microburst winds is often wrongly attributed to a tornado. Taking this into account, there still does appear to be some trend on decadal timescales." Niwa was investigating high-resolution weather forecast models that could predict the occurrence of mesocyclones - or spinning updraughts of air in thunderstorms. "If successful, this could potentially help forecasters identify mesocyclone formation between six and 12 hours in advance, increasing warning times." Damage here usually resulted from weaker events than seen overseas, he said. "So we've gone into the ield to collect data about the sort of damage caused by tornadoes as well as different types of wind phenomena." The research would ultimately allow scientists to relate the damage and loss incurred to the likely range of wind speeds caused by a tornado such as that in Hobsonville. Tornadoes An intense wind shift can be a warning of a tornado. How frequent are tornadoes? We have between seven and 10 signiicant tornadoes a year, but the annual average for Auckland is less than one. Niwa says the rate is climbing to a point we haven't seen since the 1950s and 60s. Tor- nadoes in remote areas may go unreported. How often are they deadly? Fatal tornadoes are rare here, but recent strikes have claimed lives. Three people were killed by falling concrete slabs when a tornado hit Hobsonville in December last year, construction worker Bene- dict Dacayan was killed in Albany in May 2011, and two people were killed near Waitara in August 2004. How do they form? According to Niwa, most tornadoes here are linked with pre-frontal squall lines, or bands of thunderstorms embedded in a strong, unstable pre-frontal northwesterly low. Strong updrafts can start to spin and a mesocyclone can form, which can then spawn tornadoes. Warning signs include hail or heavy rain followed by dead calm or an intense wind shift. How are they different from the tornadoes seen in "Tornado Alley" in the United States? Tornadoes over the plains of the US are far more common and more destructive than those seen here.

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The EF5 Moore Tornado in Oklahoma this year, which killed 23, had winds reaching 321km/h. Typical tornadoes here range between 115km/h and 180km/h.

Warm weather for long weekend ALEXIA JOHNSTON 20/09/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/9189609/Warm-weather- for-long-weekend CHRIS SKELTON/Fairfax NZ Metservice meteorologist Daniel Corbett in Wellington. Dust off the barbecue, South Canterbury - the long weekend (anniversary day holiday) is set to be balmy, although over- cast. MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett said South Canter- bury would be treated to 21C tomorrow, but temperatures would drop to the mid-teens on Sunday and Monday.

Houses evacuated in Picton CATHIE BELL 25/09/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/9207702/ Houses-evacuated-in-Picton

Susan O'Rourke The slip started below the cross on the hillside above Picton There have been reports of a large slip in Wellington St, Picton. Police, Marlborough District Council and Emergency Management staff are on hand and a section of Wel- lington St has been closed. Evacuated people had either gone to family and friends or to the Waikawa Marae.

Wild weather leaves damage in its wake By Patrice Dougan Wednesday Sep 25, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11129928

A large dropout at Turitaka, south of Tikitiki, on State Highway 35 has been caused by the storm lashing much of New Zealand. Photo / Gisborne Herald The extent of the damage caused by last night's storm across the upper North Island was revealed today as the bad weather headed south. Auckland's waterfront venue, the Cloud, was among the casualties of the strong winds which also brought down trees and powerlines yesterday, sporting a rip in its plastic covering. The 180m long structure, which was erected for the 2011 Rugby World Cup as an events centre, was designed to have a lifespan of 20 years. However, workers were kept busy today tying the plastic structure in place to prevent the rip from growing any bigger. It has now been weighted down with large concrete blocks. Meanwhile, electricity was restored to almost all 6600 homes in the Auckland area which lost power due to the windy weather, Vector said.

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Nine houses were evacuated because of a slip in Picton today, and part of State Highway 35 north of Gisborne was partially washed away. MetService meteorologist Dan Corbett Corbett said there would be only a brief respite between this period of stormy weather and the next. "Another deep low is expected to be approaching the South Island on Friday," he said. Unlike the current system, the next would pass fairly quickly across the country on Saturday, he said.

Surfer barrels into top swells 27/09/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/hills-and-harbour/9215621/Surfer-barrels-into-top-swells

IAIN MCGREGOR/Fairfax NZ Sumner surfer Sam Loader lands a move known as a barrel. Rare swells at Taylors Mistake have put the Christchurch beach in company with the best international suring destinations. Sumner surfer Sam Loader was yesterday snapped by Press pho- tographer Iain McGregor landing a move known as a barrel. The 27-year-old, who returned from the United States ive days ago, said the waves were "probably the best I've had recently, including the California waves". MetService duty marine forecaster David Millar said there were "pretty good swells" in the Christ- church area yesterday. "Three metres is pretty decent," he said. Good surf does not appear to be signalling the start of warmer temperatures. MetService South Island duty weather forecaster Philippa Murdoch said a few "spots of rain" were expected today, turning to showers when southwest winds came through tomorrow and continued through to Sunday. Temperatures would be mild but would drop on Sunday, with a high of 11 degrees Celsius. "Typical spring weather, it's all over the place," she said.

Long range weather report is... By Jamie Morton Friday Sep 27, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11130606 Climate experts point the inger more conclusively at role of human greenhouse gases in global warming

New Zealand's ultra-long range weather forecast is for warmer days, but more rain and wind. Photo / Dean Purcell The world's most important climate science report is unveiled tonight and Kiwis can expect warmer temperatures alongside more extreme rainfall and winds. The draft ifth assessment report from the UN Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - more than 2000 pages long - is to be released about 8pm New Zea- land time. Based on leaks from the report, it is expected

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 38 to: • Increase the likelihood that humans' greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the majority of climate change to 95 per cent from the previous 2007 report's igure of 90 per cent and from just over 50 per cent in 1995. • Show combined land and ocean temperature igures reporting a rise of about 0.8C between 1901 and 2010 and of about 0.5C between 1979 and 2010. • Marginally reduce the minimum temperature increase from long-term climate change to 1.5C from 2C in 2007. The upper-end rate of 4.5C will remain. • Reveal that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in May breached the milestone level of 400 parts per million for the irst time in ive million years. Victoria University climate scientist Dr James Renwick was involved in writing a chapter of the report on regional changes in climate. It's believed Kiwis can expect a climate on average 0.9C warmer by 2040, and 2.1C warmer by 2090. This would bring heavier and more frequent extreme rainfall, stronger extreme winter winds, longer droughts, more hot days and changes in acidity in cooler waters. "It is a critically important issue - in my opinion, the most critically important for all of us," he said. New Zealand has had a strong input into the report. Dr David Wratt, Niwa's chief scientist and vice-chairman of the IPCC Working Group 1, joked New Zealand was likely the world leader in "IPCC lead authors per capita". Dr Wratt believed this relected the "very high standing of many of our scientists and the research that they do, which perhaps isn't really recognised by people here". Climate update Main differences between the IPCC's fourth assessment report (AR4) in 2007 and this year's ifth report (AR5). • Number of lead authors : AR4: 178; AR5: 258 • Forecasting models: AR4: 20; AR5: 45 • Pages : AR4: 1006; AR5: 2014 • Conclusions: AR4 : "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the the mid-20th century is very (more than 90 per cent) likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations." AR5 (based on leaked draft): "It is extremely (more than 95 per cent) likely that human inluence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010."

IPCC Climate Change Report: New Zealand Warned of Extreme Weather, By Reissa Su | September 30, 2013 http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/509946/20130930/climate-change-global-warming-new-zealand-australia.htm New Zealand is expected to feel the heat as climate scientists warn of rising sea levels, increasing number of extinct animal and plant species, and insuficient food supply. All these consequences of global warming and more were presented in an international gathering of world representatives on climate change.

Reuters A report presented before the United Nations and prepared by top scientists from the around the world revealed that the effects of climate change will increase the frequency of extreme weather events. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, scientists said the scientiic community

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 39 agrees that humans are the most responsible for global warming. They are 95 per cent sure of this no longer surprising fact. The comprehensive report on climate change is viewed as a "wake-up call" to governments around the world. It up to world leaders to act now and work on reducing carbon emissions and utilising re- newable energy sources. Climate scientists have also warned that global temperatures will rise more than 2 degrees by the end of the century. When this happens, sea levels will rise between 26 and 82 centimetres. The world will experience extreme hot and cold weather. On IPCC climate change report: Ban Ki-Moon, United Nations Secretary-General said the heat is on for countries to do something about the problem. He said that after the report has revealed the nature of the problem and the possible solutions to address it, nations must act. NIWA scientist Dr James Renwick, co-author of the climate change report, said New Zealand will experience more extreme temperatures and more hot days than cold days.

Water key to farming future Wednesday, October 02, 2013 http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=34273 THE NEED for stored water on farms has been further emphasised by a recent climate change report predicting weather change for New Zealand, Federated Farmers climate change spokesman Dr Wil- liam Rolleston said. The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates New Zealand could face a future climate of heavier extreme rainfall, stronger and more extreme winter winds as well as longer periods of drought. “The logic for water storage is irrefutable,” Dr Rolleston said. “Whatever one’s views on the causes of climate change, climate change is a constant on our living dy- namic planet.” There are three basics to growing pasture and crops and they are soils, sunlight and water, he said. “While many countries have the irst two, it is water, or the lack of it, which limits food production in a world where the supply and demand for food sits on a knife edge.” It has been reported that New Zealand can expect a climate on average 0.9 of a degree warmer by 2040 and 2.1 degrees warmer by 2090. “We have two options for adaption. “First is researching new crops and pasture varietals in the knowledge that farms will face greater environmental stress. This demands an on-going and bipartisan ramp up in both our agricultural research and development spend and science capability. “The second of course is the huge opportunity we have to store rain water.” Dr Rolleston points to South Canterbury’s Opuha dam, the most recent dedicated water storage facili- ty that has proven itself by insulating South Canterbury from drought. (Abridged)

Devonport tornado hits MICHELLE ROBINSON AND KATASHA MCCULLOUGH 08/10/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9258239/Devonport-tornado-reported A suspected tornado toppled trees, snapped a power pole and ripped a house roof off as it whipped through Devonport, Auckland. Police were called at 6.55pm with a report of a tornado touching down on Vauxhall Rd. It caused damage to six properties from Sinclair St to Beaconsield St. MetService says the damage was likely caused by "squally weather" rather than a tornado. Water spouts were spotted in the Waitemata Harbour between Devonport and Auckland City earlier this evening, but it's unclear whether the twisters made it on land, meteorologist Allister Gorman said. MetService said earlier there was moderate risk that severe thunderstorms would cause small tornados over Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula this afternoon and the Bay of Plenty

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this evening.

Damage from Devonport tornado Forecaster Daniel Corbett said any tornados would be caused by good ''turning with height''. ''If you imagine the lower level winds are in a good north-to-north-east direction, but as you follow the winds up to a couple hundred metres they start shifting to north-north-west.'' MetService said: "Wind gusts of this strength can cause some structural damage, including trees and power lines, and may make driving hazardous. If any tornados occur, they will only affect very localised areas." (Abridged)

Gales for many areas after tornado hits in Auckland Tuesday October 08, 2013 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/gales-many-areas-after-tornado-hits-in-auckland-5621402

More property damage in Devonport - Source: Supplied by Darryl Walker The freak wind lifted roofs, tore down fences and brought down power lines in the suburb. MetService tonight issued a severe weather watch, forecasting gales in Auck- land, Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne, Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds from early Wednesday. (Abridged)

Flights cancelled as storm hits capital Oct 9 2013 http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8735927/lights-cancelled-as-storm-hits-capital.A severe weather watch has been issued for Wellington, Marlborough, Gisborne and the Coromandel Peninsu- la as a low moves east over the North Island. "It's still going to be wet and yucky and horrible in many places for the day," a Metservice spokesman told NZ Newswire. A low which brought heavy rain and snow to low levels across Canterbury has begun to ease and should clear on Wednesday afternoon. (Abridged)

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All regional lights into and out of Welling- ton have been cancelled by wind

High winds hit capital hard TOM HUNT AND MATT STEWART : Domin- ion Post 14/10/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/ news/9278242/High-winds-hit-light-schedules Powerful winds are causing chaos in the capital, with scaffolding collapsing, trees falling and widespread transport dificul- ties. Thousands of passengers have had lights in and out of Wellington cancelled and power has been cut to hundreds of homes.

MARGOT SOUTHGATE Demolition crews remove the fallen scafiolding from the Willis St site. SCAFFOLDING COLLAPSES IN CENTRAL CITY Three loors of scaffolding have fallen down in to an empty building site on Willis St, just along from the Telecom Centre. GLASS SMASHES The strong winds tunnelling through Willis Street blew out a glass shopfront right into the path of a pedestrian. Wellingtonian Duncan MacLeod was hit by a pane of lying glass as he fought the wind to walk past Pandoro Panetteria, on the corner of Willis and Bond Streets, just after 7.30 this evening. "I was just walking down the street the wind was pushing me behind, not too hard, and then all of a sudden there was a huge gust from the front and the wind pushed be back and the window burst out just the bottom irst, and then the top crashed down. I got a little bit of the side dropped on my arm...then there was another gust and that dropped out too." MacLeod ecaped with minor scratches on one arm, while iremen, already on the street, turned their attention to the glass strewn on the footpath. EMERGENCY SERVICES BUSY A van was blown over on the southbound lane of State Highway 1 near Churton Park at 1pm. Signii- cant delays were expected as an entire lane was blocked, NZTA warned. Power lines had been downed across Wairarapa and central Wellington, including outside the gates of Johnsonville School. Power has been cut to about 3,000 properties in Wairarapa, Rangitikei and Manawatu as winds bring down trees and debris and topple power lines. About 190 homes in Titahi Bay have been without power since this afternoon. The power outage began at about 2pm today and had not yet been restored, a Wellington Electricity spokesman said. A truck on State Highway 2 was overturned north of Masterton in Wairarapa shortly before 11am,

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 42 AA said. And four adults and two children were lucky to escape injuries after their campervan was blown over north of Mt Bruce on SH2 just after 2pm. ''It's weird, when we have these strong northwest wind storms we get bugger all phone calls and damage reported. If it's a southerly though, like the June storm, all hell breaks loose." CONTAINERS BLOWN OVER IN WIND CentrePort chief executive Blair O'Keeffe conirmed four containers had blown over in winds gusting up to 157kmh in the port area late this afternoon. FLIGHTS AND SAILINGS AFFECTED All regional lights were cancelled in and out of Wellington airport this morning. FORECASTERS PREDICT MORE WIND MetService says Wellington, Kapiti, Wairarapa and Hawke's Bay will all be affected by the strong northwesterlies today. Forecaster Dan Corbett warned ''the meat of the core of the strong winds'' was due in Wellington between 2-8pm today. Gusts of 139kmh were recorded in Kelburn before 11am. A top wind speed of 161kmh had been recorded at Mt Kau Kau. (Abridged)

Damaging storm batters NZ NICOLE PRYOR, ASHLEIGH STEWART AND MICHAEL DALY 14/10/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/national-news/9279603/Damaging-winds-hit-Wellington-Canterbury

Storm damaged to a parking building in Auckland's Newmarket. The gusts have been battering Wellington and the South Island all day. The Metservice’s maximum gusts recorded in the Wellington region up to 6pm were 169kmh at Ri- mutaka Summit, 167kmh at Kaukau, 135kmh in Kelburn, and 126kmh at both the airport and Mana Island. MetService was still recording gusts of 113kmh in Wellington just after 8pm. The scaffolding collapse happened about three hours earlier. As the MetService recorded a 124kmh wind gust in Wellington, the scaffolding came smashing down on Willis St, in the central business district. (Abridged)

Gales hammer Wellington as front moves north Monday October 14, 2013 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/gales-hammer-wellington-front-moves-north-5646612 Powerful winds are tonight hammering Wellington and large parts of the lower North Island. Thousands of homes remain without power, emergency services are lat out and air travel has been disrupted. Terriied residents say children leaving school in the Wellington suburb of Kelburn were lucky they were not in the way of a large tree as it smashed on the road in gale force winds. "I heard a crack and looked over and a tree had fallen down. There was just a school let out so there was a father and his toddler just metres away when it happened. It was quite terrifying," said Lillian

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 43 Troncoso-Thomas, a Kelburn resident. High winds brought down scaffolding on Wellington's Willis St - Source: NZTA Power out in Canterbury More than 1000 homes west of Christ- church are also without electricity for the night after the storm earlier ripped through the South Island. For the second time in weeks, Canter- bury residents have taken a hammering.

Windy toll on power, trees AL WILLIAMS 15/10/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/ news/9282615/Windy-toll-on-power- trees

JOHN BISSET/Fairfax Strong northwesterly winds downed trees and left parts of Geraldine, Winchester and Temuka without power early yesterday. MetService meteorologist Daniel Cor- bett said winds up to 100kmh hit the region. In scenes reminiscent of those on Sep- tember 10 and 11, ireighters respond- ed to numerous incidents. Oficers spent two hours battling a blaze at a pine plantation on Orari Sta- tion Rd, where lines had come down and sparked a ire on the forest loor. (Abridged)

State of emergency in Whanganui from river 15/10/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9282523/The-big-clean-up-begins

Tracey Grant: The Whanganui River in lood. A state of local emergency has been declared in Whanganui amid fears the Whanganui River may burst its banks, looding homes and roads. About 110 homes were being evacuated, and 50 commercial properties were also under threat from the rising river levels. The river is now expected to peak around 1am on Wednesday, Civil De- fence controller Kevin Ross said. Sandbagging was under way, with some properties already threatened by a stream which had burst its banks.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 44 "All lood waters should be considered contaminated as the sewerage system has overlowed in some places," the council said. Fallout from the storm that swept up the country on Monday and Tuesday is still Earlier gale-force winds brought down trees and damaged houses and buildings in Auckland, a day after the storm caused chaos in Wellington and the South Is- land. Wellington's Johnsonville rail line was again closed today after a third slip due to heavy rain. Buses were replacing trains on the John- sonville train line after a slip came down south of Crofton Downs. Manurewa ire station manager Roy Har- ris said power lines were down all over South Auckland. Trafic lights were out at some North Shore intersections, including Browns Bay Rd and East Coast Rd. An Auckland Airport spokesman said a number of lights out of Auckland had been cancelled or de- layed due to the high winds. Around 20,000 properties in Wairarapa, Manawatu, Whanganui and South Taranaki lost power at some point during the storm, Powerco said. More bad weather is on the way, with MetService warning of the possibility of severe northwest gales late Thursday and early Friday for inland parts of Southland, Otago and Canterbury. (Abridged)

Flood threat triggers state of emergency in Wanganui Tuesday October 15, 2013 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/lood-threat-triggers-state-emergency-in-wanganui-5648227

Houses surrounded by loodwaters in Ohakune - Source: Ruapehu District Council A state of emergency has been declared for the Wanganui District because of the threat of looding to properties and roads. The Whanganui River is predicted to reach 15.5 metres at Pipiriki. The river is expected to overtop the stop-banks at Kowhai Park about 7pm tonight. Residents of Anzac Parade properties between Mt View Road and Jones Street are being told to evacuate. Some properties in Putiki, near the Whanga- nui City Bridge, will also be evacuated. Some properties on the river side of Taupo Quay are also being contacted. The army has been called in to help reinforce stopbanks. MetService says the very active front that brought damaging westerly winds and very heavy rain to parts of New Zealand over the past 24 hours was gradually clearing away to the east this aft

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 45 A bus is blown of the road by strong winds. - Source: You Original

Dramatic video posted online showed a bus battling with strong winds in Wairarapa before crashing a paddock fence, narrowly missing a power pole, yesterday evening. Jenna Snelgrove, a spokeswoman for bus company Tranzit, said the site of the crash, on the Tauherenikau Straight 3km south of Greytown, was notoriously gusty. Earlier today, the Mangawhero burst its banks forcing a handful of residents near Ohakune to evacuate. ernoon. (Abridged)

Storm damage will exceed $100 million, says Insurance Council Wednesday, 16 October, 2013 Voxy http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/storm-damage-will-exceed-100-million-says-insurance-council/5/170955 The cost of insured damage from extreme weather events for 2013 is likely to be over $160 million, making it the most costly year from storms in New Zealand since 2004, according to the Insurance Council of New Zealand. The Insurance Council has released the provisional cost of insured damage from the weather event that occurred on September 11 and 12. Chief executive Tim Grafton says the insurance bill for the fe- rocious storms over the country last month has risen to $68 million. "New Zealand has to plan and adapt in ways that will reduce the impact of natural disasters because every dollar spent in pre-disaster adaptation measures saves many more after the event. "If New Zealand doesn’t adapt to changing climate conditions, there will be increased claims and higher losses leading to higher premiums or even cover being withdrawn in some areas. We need to think about how to manage risk not assume that insurance manages it all for us. It doesn't". ICNZ welcomed the Government’s recent announcement to spend up to $201 million on scientiic research aimed at strengthening New Zealand’s resilience to natural hazards over the next 10 years. "More research such as this is needed to inform the frequency and magnitude of weather events and high-grade modelling which builds in cascading events - loods bring with them landslides, storms bring winds and with high tides come storm surges," says Mr Grafton. (Abridged)

Sceptics bail on climate court case By Jamie Morton NZ Herald Thursday Oct 17, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11141304

Niwa chief executive John Morgan. Photo / APN A group of global warming sceptics has dropped a court challenge against the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research over national temperature records. Niwa chief executive John Morgan said he was pleased but not surprised by the outcome. "We never doubted the excellence and integrity of our science and our scientists," he said. A decision on costs is still pending. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 46 MetService doubles annual proit Monday October 21, 2013 Source: BusinessDesk http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/metservice-doubles-annual-proit-5655189

A deepening low moves in from the Tasman Sea - Source: Metservice Meteorological Service of New Zealand, the nation's state-owned weather forecaster, more than doubled annual proit in 2013 as it reduced costs and renewed key contracts in a challenging market. Proit rose to $2.7 million in the year ended June 30, from $1.1 million the year earlier, the Wellington-based company said in its annual report presented to parlia- ment today. Sales edged up 0.2% to $42.3 million while expenses declined 5.2% to $37.7 million. In the 2013 inancial year, MetService marked its 20th year as a state-owned enterprise. It claims the title of the world's most commercially focused state weather company, providing weather information to global news services such as the BBC, devising a simple trafic-light system to let road maintenance crew know when to paint road markings and developing an iPad app to give pilots the latest weather updates as they prepare for take-off in the cock- pit. The latest year "has been a challenging year for many of the economies in which we do business," MetService chairwoman Sarah Smith and chief executive Peter Lennox wrote in the latest annual report. The company's metservice.com website has increased in popularity over the year, following a re- launch in December, with average daily visits up 28%, ranking it as one of the nation's most popular sites. The MetService is New Zealand's oldest scientiic institution, with a history dating back to the early years of British colonial rule in 1861 when an extension of the electric telegraph system enabled it to collect daily weather reports from far lung settlements. A spate of shipwrecks prompted the government to start a storm-warning service as part of the marine department in 1874, when an average 25 vessels were totally wrecked each year along the coastline. The MetService has been shuttled between seven government departments in its history, and has even come under the control of the Air Force. Unlike its overseas counterparts such as the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which is a non-proit government department, the MetService moved to a commercial focus on July 1, 1992. The company, which has paid out $47.2 million in dividends since becoming an SOE, will pay a divi- dend of $2.3 million to the Crown, following a decision at a board meeting last week. Since its June 30 balance date, MetService in August bought a 49% stake oceanic consultancy MetOcean Solutions, giving it a foothold in a market worth more than $10 million. The $3 million purchase was funded by bank borrowing. In 2013, MetService reduced its borrowings by $2 million to $15 million.

MetService weather reports on Face Television http://www.voxy.co.nz/entertainment/metservice-weather-reports-face-television/5/171695 Wednesday, 23 October, 2013 MetService - New Zealand’s oficial weather authority - is now bringing you accurate and timely reports in ive convenient timeslots on Face Television (free-to-air on Sky TV). Face TV is the irst national news channel to bring viewers MetService’s own video forecasts, presented by the meteorologists themselves. Forecasts include National, Auckland, Paciic and Australian weather reports - and severe weather updates when they are required.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 47 MetService weather updates are presented by experienced broadcast meteorologists Daniel Corbett and John Law. British born Dan Corbett has worked for the UK Met Ofice and the BBC, as well as in Tornado Alley in the US, before joining New Zealand’s MetService. John Law has many years of meteorological experience working both in the UK and NZ. Face TV broadcasts to more than 50 per cent of the NZ population, while continuing its free-to-air an- alogue service for the Auckland community. Tune into Face TV via: Sky free-to-air Channel 83 - UHF41 in Auckland Broadcasting times of weather updates: National weather - Monday to Friday, at 5.55pm (repeated at 7.55am Tue - Sat) Auckland weather - Mon, Wed to Friday at 6.55pm and Tuesday at 7.25pm Australian weather - Monday to Friday, at 5.28pm Paciic weather - Tuesday at 6.55pm

Snow, wind and rain hit roads Oct 27 2013 AAP http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8745548/snow-wind-and-rain-hit-roads

Despite snow, wind and rain making driving conditions dificult, no fatalities have been reported so far on roads. (File) Snow, wind and rain have hit the South Island causing power cuts and sparking a number of ires, but as yet no fatal road accidents have occurred during the Labour Day holiday weekend.

It's all down to climbers when weather turns By Anna Leask Wednesday Oct 30, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11148376 Conditions on Mt Taranaki can change from beautiful to atrocious in minutes, experts say.

Ogawa and his partner Nicole Sutton hunkered down in an ice trench but rescuers were unable to reach them in time. Alpine experts say conditions on Mt Taranaki can turn within minutes, and whether climbers make it down alive or not depends solely on the decisions they make when the weather deteriorates. Hiroki Ogawa and Nicole Sutton are the 81st and 82nd people to die on the mountain, one of New Zealand's most deadly, since 1891. Bad weather was forecast for Labour Weekend, but it was not due to set in until Monday. On Saturday morning, the mountain looked stunning. However, the weather on the mountain turned atrocious late on Saturday and the beacon was set off just after 10pm. Mr Lockley said rescuers were alerted and started to assemble minutes after the beacon was activated. All were expert climbers who know the mountain well, and they wanted to get moving, but the weather was simply too dangerous. Mr Lock- ley said the mountain was impenetrable in the conditions, which included icy high winds.

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Strong gales damage houses, cut power ANNA TURNER 27/10/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9332269/Strong-gales-damage-houses-cut-power

Daniel Tobin:Kaia De Gold, 2, looks at some of the farm animals at Rangiora A & P Show. Gusty winds tore through Canterbury yesterday causing damage across the region. Cantabrian Jennifer Gillette was at the Rangiora A & P show yesterday when the massive winds hit, blowing panels off of rides, blowing vendors' awnings and tables over and causing a bouncy-slide with kids on it to "roll about 20 meters". "It was pretty chaotic," she said. "Our son... rolled with the bouncy- slide was pulled out from under it shaken but unharmed." Many homes lost power as the wind brought down trees and caused damage powerlines. MetService duty forecaster Allister Gorman said winds were recorded up to 130km on Sugarloaf on the Port Hills at about 3pm yesterday. "At Darield we recorded winds of 110km and Christchurch Airport the wind got up to about 95km which is pretty strong for there," he said. "That's what we've got recorded but they may have got stronger than that at some point judging by the damage which was done." DEEP SOUTH WAKES TO SNOW Meanwhile, residents in the deep south woke to a cold southerly blast this morning that bought snow showers to Queenstown. A MetService spokesman said the showers were coming through in bands and the temperature was only about 5 degrees C. (Abridged)

A tree falls in Brooklyn, another in Tawa, causing traffic problems October 31, 2013 http:// wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=61275 Wellington.Scoop Two large pine trees have fallen across roads in two parts of Welling- ton this morning. On Brooklyn Road, one lane (above) is blocked by a tree which fell at 11.30. And further north, Middleton Road, between Churton Park and Tawa, is expected to be closed to through trafic for the rest of today while crews remove a very large macro- carpa tree that has fallen across the road. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 49

Balmy irst half of summer ahead - Niwa Jamie Morton Friday Nov 1, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11150145

Temperatures between now and January set be either near or above average temperatures for most of New Zealand. Photo / Doug Sherring A new climate summary has tipped a balmy irst half of the summer season, with near or above average temperatures for most of New Zealand between now and January.(Abridged)

NZ hit by heavy thunderstorms By Heather McCracken Thursday Nov 7, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11153195

Heavy rain soon saw lash looding around Auckland this afternoon. Photo / Anita Moon More thunderstorms are in store for much of the North Island this afternoon and tomorrow. MetService has issued a severe thunderstorm watch which extends from Whangarei to Wanganui and Na- pier, with a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms and localised heavy downpours. Spokesman Dan Corbett said the low had already brought heavy downpours to Auckland, Hamilton, Tau- ranga, Te Puke and from Taupo to the Gisborne ranges this afternoon. "Think of it like a big octopus, lailing its arms around like it's really mad, and the centre of its head would be sitting just north and east of Whangaparaoa,'' he said. "We have another day of it tomorrow and then it's getting the hint and moving off to the northeast of New Zealand.'' "Driving home there could be some heavy spray in places, there's also some risk of some small hail. "If folks are heading in the car down to Waikato, there'll be some lovely rain for the paddocks there but also some good thunder.''

Record rainfall costs Southland farmers TERRI RUSSELL Agribusiness 08/11/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/9377233/Record-rainfall-costs-Southland-farmers Record-breaking rainfall that hit parts of Southland last month has frustrated farmers, who could battle the low-on effects for another year, the region's Federated Farmers branch president Russell MacPherson says. Niwa released its monthly climate summary this week that shows some parts of Southland experienced their wettest October on record. Invercargill had its highest rainfall and Lumsden and Tiwai Pt also experienced some of their highest rainfall on record. Previous October records: Invercargill's highest recorded daily rainfall was 177mm in October 1946 Invercargill's highest daily minimum air temperature was 15 degrees Celsius recorded in October 1917 and October 1924 Milford Sound's highest daily minimum air temperature: 13.4C in October 1961

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 50 New October records: Invercargill had 180mm of rain last month; 189 per cent more than normal Invercargill had a daily minimum temperature of 16C Milford Sound had a daily minimum temperature of 15.8C.

Climate deniers ordered to pay court costs 12 November 2013 Radio NZ www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/227472/climate-deniers-ordered-to-pay-court-costs A group of climate-change sceptics has been forced to pay court costs over their unsuccessful legal challenge against the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa). The New Zealand Climate Science Education Trust took Niwa to court saying its science was faulty and that was unacceptable because its indings guided national policymaking. The case was abandoned when judges ruled scientiic argument was not appropriate for determina- tion by a court of law. The High Court awarded costs of about $80,000 against the trust, which then asked the Court of Ap- peal for a discount arguing its members had acted in the public interest. But the court has concluded the trust was mounting a crusade against Niwa and was not acting rea- sonably.

Live chat: Weather patterns with Niwa's Mike Revell 14/11/2013 Stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/9399653/Live-chat-Niwas-Mike-Revell

WEATHER MAN: Niwa scientist Dr Mike Rev- ell. The Philippines has been left devastated by Typhoon Haiyan - a storm described as one of the biggest ever on record. And some climate scientists are warning that storms can only get bigger. Is this true - can we expect more disaster in the future? We're joined today by Dr Mike Revell, Niwa's Principal Scientist of Meteorology, to talk about all things weather.

WeatherWatch part of the NZ Herald's 150 year celebrations Posted by wwadmin on Wed, 13/11/2013 http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weatherwatch-part-nz-heralds-150-year-celebrations The New Zealand Herald is celebrating 150 years and today they have been sharing something quite different with their readers - a live blog from the newsroom. Earlier today, as part of our usual Wednesday weather video, a couple of photos were uploaded to the live blog, showing Philip Duncan presenting the weather and Herald producer Ash Boyd making sure it looks and sounds good enough to go to air. The videos are recorded live - in other words, we don't edit it afterwards. No scripts are used and usually we record in one take - but not always. We think the record was 10 takes! The forecasts are prepared by WeatherWatch.co.nz using maps from Weathermap.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 51 DoC stops water checks in Kermadecs 18 November 2013 RadioNZ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/228075/doc-stops-water- checks-in-kermadecs The Department of Conservation has stopped taking water temperatures at Raoul Island after the death of one of its workers there. It is presumed that Mihai Muncas-Nagy, 33, from Romania, drowned after being swept out to sea in January 2012 while checking the ocean temperature round the island 1000km northeast of Auckland in the Kermadec islands. The department has now told the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) to use electronic devices in future if it feels that water testing is important. DoC has been convicted on health and safety charges and paid $60,000 in reparations. The inquest will conclude on Tuesday.

Thunder, looding and hail PENNY WARDLE 18/11/2013 http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/9413318/Thunder-looding-and-hail

Metservice Different types of lightning strikes over Marlborough this afternoon There have been 279 lightning strikes in Marlborough in the two hours to 3pm and there could be double the number by the end of day, says MetService meteorologist Dan Corbett. Some of these hits were to clouds and others to land, said Mr Corbett at 3pm. The MetService had recorded close to 900 hits across the country and issued a severe thunderstorm watch for areas including Marlborough, ending at 8pm. There was a risk of lash-looding and hail, especially in the ranges but perhaps also in Picton and Blenheim, Mr Corbett said. ''The air is very unstable setting off showers and tunderstorms,'' he said. ''The atmosphere is juicy. I wouldn't head out to play a game of golf.''

The Great Storm Thursday, 21 November, 2013 - 15:28 By Philip Duncan, WeatherWatch When it comes to the weather it often comes down to your personal experiences rather than the facts when we describe storms or severe conditions.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 52

The other night I was enjoying a rerun of the Vicar of Dibley and it started with an Atlantic hurricane blowing a tree through a stained glass window in the church. The next scene starts with the church committee chairman, David, declaring the crisis meeting open, looking at damage after "the great storm". He's instantly interrupted by the man, Frank, taking the minutes "Are you sure you want to call it the "great" storm?" and begins to talk about another storm from the past. It leads into a funny back and forth where they all debate just which storm exactly was the "great" one. They also discuss other severe weather moments - like the great freeze....or was it the great frost?. The episode had me laughing as it reminded me of conversations I've had here in New Zealand. Quite often I'm emailed interesting stories from the great [insert storm, wind, rain, snow, freeze, here]. Sometimes you know exactly which storm...other times you have no idea. When I irst moved to Te Aroha in the eastern Waikato in the late 80s it was just after "the great lood" a few years earlier. In 1987 I was in London for the "great storm" which caused death and major damage across much of the UK. In the US, hurricane names have replaced calling storms "the big storm". Although hurricanes don't occur in winter - which has lead private forecaster Weather.com to start naming winter storms. It has been controversial to some - we thought about it for NZ but igured we didn't have enough of them to warrant it. In New Zealand at least once a year I hear "this was worse than Bola" - and this highlights what I'm getting at. People remember storms on a very personal level - not in the factual way some meteorologists might think. Overall we haven't seen a repeat of Bola along the North Island's east coast - but in localised parts of Hawkes Bay, Gisborne, etc there have certainly been a number of bigger lood events. Events that really were worse than Bola - for them locally. Our feelings and memories are not accurate guides. However there is one thing meteorologists can't argue with - how something feels to you. If last night really felt like the coldest night you've experienced - that may well be true. However that doesn't mean it was the coldest night ever for that loca- tion. WeatherWatch.co.nz tries to cover both aspects - we cover the factual stuff but it's nice to cover how people are feeling. If we relied on the stats we'd be telling farmers in the north not to complain about the dry conditions - instead we've been exclusively working with the farming community and organisations to get a personal connection with those who work outdoors in the weather every day - and we are leading the way with covering just how dry it is for some farmers across New Zealand at the moment - despite some deluges in recent weeks.. It's one of the best parts of my job - hearing from those around the country with stories about weather conditions where they are - please keep the comments and emails coming in. I think weather forecasters that engage with the public from all walks of life across the country are the ones who are most likely to present forecasts that relate best to them. People all over the world are obsessed with talking about the weather - it's a daily automatic func- tion for the majority of us. With so many people talking about the weather each day, it makes sense for us as forecasters to listen to what you're saying - even if it is about a "great storm" that perhaps some of us can't even remember! For those who want to watch the funny weather clip from the Vicar of Dibley you'll ind it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARXUbHPKpKI.

Landslip hits Picton house By Rebecca Quilliam Thursday Nov 28, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11164300 Residents of a Picton house escaped injury today when a landslip hit their home and broke through a wall. Torrential rain at the top of the South Island and the bottom of the North Island resulted in slips

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 53 both in Picton and north of Wellington. A Marlborough District Council spokeswoman said emergency services were at the Mil- ton Terrace property in Picton monitoring the situation, and a geotechnical engineer would inspect the property tonight. Meanwhile, a slip closed the Rimutaka Hill Road north of Wellington this afternoon, causing major trafic delays. MetService spokesman Daniel Corbett said the departing low covering some of the country would have a ``slight sting in its tail'' with numerous thunderstorms, persis- tent rain and southerly gales.

This slip on the Rimutaka Hill Road closed the road for some time.

Flash lood hits town By Patrick O'Sullivan Friday Nov 29, 2013 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/hawkes-bay-today/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503462&objectid=11164568

Pub patrons in Ongaonga were in no hurry to go home yesterday as a nearby stream broke its banks. Photo/Paul Taylor A lash lood surged through Ongaonga yesterday when a thunderstorm caused the local stream to burst its banks and low down the main street. Central Hawke's Bay District Council emergency management oficer Graham Howse said the 4pm thunderstorm triggered a "lash lood" situation with a torrential downpour. MetService said thunderstorms were often very localised and lightning from the one that dumped rain on the township had been tracked on radar. No homes were evacuated but the quick-lowing water looded the local pub and ire station, and police closed roads located off State Highway 50 as water levels throughout the district rose. MetService meteorologist Ian Gill said the thunderstorm's lightning had been tracked on radar. "A thunderstorm has gone trundling across and dumped a very large amount of rain, out of a single cloud effectively," he said. "With something like a thunderstorm you can get hail on one side of the road and dry on the other. It can be quite localised."(Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 54 The Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Incorporated 1979) is an independent group of weather enthusiasts with the stated aim to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate, particularly as related to the New Zealand region.

To this end we arrange regular public meetings, organise an annual conference, and publish an annual journal and quarterly newsletter reporting on the latest developments in meteorology.

Member Beneits The Society consists of a group of people who share a fascination in the weather and like to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate, particularly as related to the New Zealand region.

Membership provides access to a lively committee who are specially elected watchdogs for any contentious issues involving weather or climate. For members in the main centres we have an e-group for communication plus organised meetings throughout the year on weather and climate topics.

We publish a quarterly newsletter full of member's news and views plus descriptions of recent signiicant weather. We also publish an annual professional journal "Weather and Climate", providing members access to the latest peer- reviewed thinking in the profession of meteorology. It is accepted internationally as the journal that gives recognition to the value of meteorological and clima- tological work done in New Zealand. It contains papers of interest to both professional and general readers. It also includes book reviews and explanations of the unusual. Members are invited to send in their own descriptions or photos.

We also hold an annual conference at various venues for the presentation of scientiic and general weather related topics.

Subscriptions Annual membership fees are due on 1st August.:

• $35 for Ordinary Members • $105 for Institutional Members There is an additional overseas postage charge of $15 per annum for members residing overseas.

All members (Ordinary and Institutional) receive copies of "Weather and Cli- mate" and the quarterly "Newsletter".

TO JOIN: Fill in the form at http://www.metsoc.org.nz/user/register

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Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter #135 Dec 2013 - Page 56