Coventry City Council PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD Appraisal Summary Report 70001991-041 SEPTEMBER 2017 CONFIDENTIAL Coventry City Council PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD Appraisal Summary Report DRAFT (VERSION) CONFIDENTIAL PROJECT NO. 70001991-041 OUR REF. NO. 70001991-041 DATE: SEPTEMBER 2017 WSP 1 Queens Drive Birmingham, West Midlands B5 4PJ Phone: +44 1213 524 700 Fax: +44 121 352 4701 WSP.com QUALITY CONTROL Issue/revision First issue Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks Date August 2017 September 2017 Prepared by xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx Signature Checked by xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx Signature Authorised by Signature Project number 70001991-041 70001991-041 Report number File reference PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 PURPOSE OF REPORT 1 1.2 CONTEXT 2 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE 3 2 PROJECT BACKGROUND 4 2.1 INTRODUCTION 4 2.2 VISION 4 2.3 THE NEED FOR INTERVENTION 4 2.3.1 Key current and future problems 4 2.3.2 Stakeholder Engagement 6 2.4 THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE OBJECTIVES 6 2.5 GEOGRAPHICAL AREA INVOLVED IN THE INTERVENTION 11 2.6 PREFERRED OPTION 14 2.6.1 INTRODUCTION 14 2.6.2 PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD IN FUTURE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT 15 2.6.3 A46 LINK ROAD SUPPORT TO STRATEGIC HIGHWAY CONNECTIVITY 15 3 PROPOSED TRANSPORT MODELLING AND FORECASTING - METHODOLOGY 18 3.1 INTRODUCTION 18 3.2 2013 BASE MODEL 18 3.2.1 Background 18 3.2.2 2013 CASM HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT MODEL 19 3.3 FORECASTING 34 3.4 CONCLUSION 35 4 ECONOMIC CASE – PROPOSED IMPACTS ASSESSMENT 36 4.1 INTRODUCTION 36 PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council 4.2 ECONOMY 36 4.2.1 Business Users and Transport Providers 36 4.2.2 RELIABILITY IMPACT ON BUSINESS USERS 37 4.2.3 Regeneration 37 4.2.4 Wider Impacts 37 5 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT 40 5.1 INTRODUCTION 40 5.2 QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT 40 5.2.1 OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY 40 5.2.2 HISTORIC ENVIRONMENT 40 5.2.3 LANDSCAPE 41 5.2.4 TOWNSCAPE 42 5.2.5 BIODIVERSITY 43 5.2.6 WATER ENVIRONMENT 44 5.3 QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT 45 5.3.1 AIR QUALITY 45 5.3.2 GREENHOUSE GASES 46 5.3.3 NOISE 46 5.3.4 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA 46 6 SOCIAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT 48 6.1 INTRODUCTION 48 6.2 COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS 48 6.3 RELIABILITY IMPACT ON COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS 48 6.4 PHYSICAL ACTIVITY 49 6.5 JOURNEY QUALITY 49 6.6 ACCIDENTS 51 6.7 OTHER SOCIAL IMPACTS 51 6.8 DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS 51 7 ACTIVE MODES IMPACT ASSESSMENT 53 7.1 BACKGROUND 53 7.2 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY 53 WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Coventry City Council 7.2.1 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON ACTIVE MODES - METHODOLOGY 53 7.2.2 OTHER IMPACTS ON ACTIVE MODES - METHODOLOGY 54 8 8 PUBLIC ACCOUNTS 55 8.1 INTRODUCTION 55 8.2 COST TO BROAD TRANSPORT BUDGET 55 8.2.1 LEVEL OF DETAIL TO INFORM THE COST ESTIMATE 55 8.2.2 BASE COSTS 55 8.2.3 TREATMENT OF RISK 55 8.2.4 MAINTENANCE AND OPERATING COSTS 56 8.2.5 Development of Outturn Costs 56 8.2.6 TREATMENT OF OPTIMISM BIAS 57 8.3 INDIRECT TAX REVENUES 57 9 DEVELOPMENT OF THE BUSINESS CASE 58 PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 PURPOSE OF REPORT The purpose of the Appraisal Specification Report (ASR) is to provide the specification of the methodology and scope with regard to the Stage 2 of the Web TAG appraisal process for the Business Case submission; this will also include the underlying assumptions and limitations. In the “Transport Analysis Guidance (January 2014)” outlined by the Department for Transport’s (DfT) WebTAG guidance, the ASR identifies the Step 9 of Stage 1, which represents the last step before Stage 2 (see Figure 1below). It provides the specification of the methodology and scope to be executed during the Stage 2 – Further Appraisal, in the Outline Business Case. The assumptions and methodology defined in the ASR refer to the further appraisal of the options resulting from the option sifting and appraisal processes undertaken in the steps of Stage 1 previously undertaken. This ASR sets out the methodologies and assumptions with regard to the A46 Link Road scheme, which represents the sole preferred option identified and selected for this outline business case. The ASR is intended to inform the following bodies or organisations: Warwickshire County Council (WCC) and Coventry City Council (CCC), the promoters of the scheme; and Department for Transport (DfT) and the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA), to whom CCC and WCC are submitting the MSBC. Consistent with “Transport Analysis Guidance, the ASR identifies a proportionate approach to appraisal, consistent with: The level of uncertainty about estimated impacts; and The focus of the local objectives, reflecting the need for intervention. Stakeholders, local interest groups and communities affected by the scheme. The methodologies outlined in the report are consistent with WebTAG – the DfT’s guidance on the analysis of transport studies. The aim of the ASR is to propose an appraisal approach which will be agreed with DfT. Once agreed, the ASR will form the basis of the appraisal of the Phase 2 A46 Link Road between the A46 Stoneleigh Junction and the University of Warwick. PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 1 of 58 Figure 1 Steps in the Stage 1 Process – Identification of the ASR Source – Transport Analysis Guidance: The Transport Appraisal Process, DfT, January 2014 1.2 CONTEXT Coventry City Council with support from Warwickshire County Council has reviewed the current and future problems on the transport network to assess the need and location for a potential intervention to address existing and future transport constraints and support future opportunities. As a component of the Phase 2 A46 Link Road Major Business Case (MSBC), as well as to inform this Appraisal Specification Report, an Option Assessment Report (OAR) has been developed. The OAR identified the following key current and future problems which needed to be addressed by an intervention: Traffic congestion, resulting in increased journey times, on key routes including the A45, Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh Road. Traffic congestion is reducing accessibility to employment and educational opportunities including the University of Warwick, Stoneleigh Park, Jaguar Land Rover’s Whitley site and Coventry Airport. WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 2 of 58 Coventry City Council Public transport journeys are adversely affected by traffic congestion on routes to / from the University of Warwick. High volume of strategic trips on the A45 in South Coventry in the current situation between Tile Hill Lane / Charter Avenue and the Coventry Eastern Bypass. Lack of network resilience meaning planned maintenance or incidents result in long-diversions / delays for through traffic. Restriction of potential expansion to the University of Warwick due to lack of transport network capacity. High levels dependency on sustainable travel by students to / from the University of Warwick The greatest concentrations of casualties in the local area are on the A45, Charter Avenue, A429, A46, Westwood Road / Kirby Corner Road in the vicinity of the University of Warwick. High concentrations of pedestrian and cyclist accidents on the A45, Charter Avenue and the A429. Poor Air Quality within the City of Coventry, resulting in Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) designation. In order to mitigate these problems, and to maximise the future opportunities in South Coventry, the following scheme objectives have been identified: 1. Maintain journey times following development To enable the delivery of future housing, employment and educational development whilst maintaining journey times on the local network including on the A45; Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh Road. 2. Provide accessible economic development To deliver “desirable” average peak hour journey times close to those in the off peak to support accessibility to support future housing, employment and educational development sites in the local area. 3. Improve network resilience To ensure the transport network within Coventry and Warwickshire is resilient enough to provide a consistent and reliable level of service during (a) planned maintenance and (b) during incidents. 4. Improve University of Warwick accessibility To support the delivery of future development at the University of Warwick and reduce journey times for those travelling to / from the site. 5. Improve road safety To reduce the number and severity of accidents on the A45, A429, Charter Avenue, and at the A46 Stoneleigh junction. 6. Improve air quality To reduce the impact of transport on air quality within the City of Coventry to achieve levels below accepted thresholds for NO2. 7. Reduce severance To reduce vehicle flows on the A45, Stoneleigh Road and Gibbet Hill Road, and enable improved pedestrian and cycle crossing facilities and routes on the A45. 8. Reduce rat running To reduce vehicle flows on local roads including Crackley Lane and Hollis Lane in order to relieve capacity on the local network. Further details of the project background are provided in Chapter 2. This ASR will set out the assumptions and the methodology which are proposed for Stage 2 of the appraisal process (see Figure 1 above), for the Phase 2 A46 Link Road between the A46 Stoneleigh Junction and the University of Warwick.