Coventry City Council PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD Appraisal Summary Report
70001991-041 SEPTEMBER 2017 CONFIDENTIAL Coventry City Council
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD Appraisal Summary Report
DRAFT (VERSION) CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECT NO. 70001991-041 OUR REF. NO. 70001991-041
DATE: SEPTEMBER 2017
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Date August 2017 September 2017
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PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 PURPOSE OF REPORT 1 1.2 CONTEXT 2 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE 3
2 PROJECT BACKGROUND 4
2.1 INTRODUCTION 4 2.2 VISION 4 2.3 THE NEED FOR INTERVENTION 4 2.3.1 Key current and future problems 4 2.3.2 Stakeholder Engagement 6 2.4 THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE OBJECTIVES 6 2.5 GEOGRAPHICAL AREA INVOLVED IN THE INTERVENTION 11 2.6 PREFERRED OPTION 14 2.6.1 INTRODUCTION 14 2.6.2 PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD IN FUTURE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT 15 2.6.3 A46 LINK ROAD SUPPORT TO STRATEGIC HIGHWAY CONNECTIVITY 15
3 PROPOSED TRANSPORT MODELLING AND FORECASTING - METHODOLOGY 18
3.1 INTRODUCTION 18 3.2 2013 BASE MODEL 18 3.2.1 Background 18 3.2.2 2013 CASM HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT MODEL 19 3.3 FORECASTING 34 3.4 CONCLUSION 35
4 ECONOMIC CASE – PROPOSED IMPACTS ASSESSMENT 36
4.1 INTRODUCTION 36
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council 4.2 ECONOMY 36 4.2.1 Business Users and Transport Providers 36 4.2.2 RELIABILITY IMPACT ON BUSINESS USERS 37 4.2.3 Regeneration 37 4.2.4 Wider Impacts 37
5 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT 40
5.1 INTRODUCTION 40 5.2 QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT 40 5.2.1 OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY 40 5.2.2 HISTORIC ENVIRONMENT 40 5.2.3 LANDSCAPE 41 5.2.4 TOWNSCAPE 42 5.2.5 BIODIVERSITY 43 5.2.6 WATER ENVIRONMENT 44 5.3 QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT 45 5.3.1 AIR QUALITY 45 5.3.2 GREENHOUSE GASES 46 5.3.3 NOISE 46 5.3.4 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA 46
6 SOCIAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT 48
6.1 INTRODUCTION 48 6.2 COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS 48 6.3 RELIABILITY IMPACT ON COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS 48 6.4 PHYSICAL ACTIVITY 49 6.5 JOURNEY QUALITY 49 6.6 ACCIDENTS 51 6.7 OTHER SOCIAL IMPACTS 51 6.8 DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS 51
7 ACTIVE MODES IMPACT ASSESSMENT 53
7.1 BACKGROUND 53 7.2 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY 53
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Coventry City Council 7.2.1 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON ACTIVE MODES - METHODOLOGY 53 7.2.2 OTHER IMPACTS ON ACTIVE MODES - METHODOLOGY 54
8 8 PUBLIC ACCOUNTS 55
8.1 INTRODUCTION 55 8.2 COST TO BROAD TRANSPORT BUDGET 55 8.2.1 LEVEL OF DETAIL TO INFORM THE COST ESTIMATE 55 8.2.2 BASE COSTS 55 8.2.3 TREATMENT OF RISK 55 8.2.4 MAINTENANCE AND OPERATING COSTS 56 8.2.5 Development of Outturn Costs 56 8.2.6 TREATMENT OF OPTIMISM BIAS 57 8.3 INDIRECT TAX REVENUES 57
9 DEVELOPMENT OF THE BUSINESS CASE 58
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 PURPOSE OF REPORT The purpose of the Appraisal Specification Report (ASR) is to provide the specification of the methodology and scope with regard to the Stage 2 of the Web TAG appraisal process for the Business Case submission; this will also include the underlying assumptions and limitations. In the “Transport Analysis Guidance (January 2014)” outlined by the Department for Transport’s (DfT) WebTAG guidance, the ASR identifies the Step 9 of Stage 1, which represents the last step before Stage 2 (see Figure 1below). It provides the specification of the methodology and scope to be executed during the Stage 2 – Further Appraisal, in the Outline Business Case. The assumptions and methodology defined in the ASR refer to the further appraisal of the options resulting from the option sifting and appraisal processes undertaken in the steps of Stage 1 previously undertaken. This ASR sets out the methodologies and assumptions with regard to the A46 Link Road scheme, which represents the sole preferred option identified and selected for this outline business case. The ASR is intended to inform the following bodies or organisations: Warwickshire County Council (WCC) and Coventry City Council (CCC), the promoters of the scheme; and Department for Transport (DfT) and the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA), to whom CCC and WCC are submitting the MSBC. Consistent with “Transport Analysis Guidance, the ASR identifies a proportionate approach to appraisal, consistent with: The level of uncertainty about estimated impacts; and The focus of the local objectives, reflecting the need for intervention. Stakeholders, local interest groups and communities affected by the scheme. The methodologies outlined in the report are consistent with WebTAG – the DfT’s guidance on the analysis of transport studies. The aim of the ASR is to propose an appraisal approach which will be agreed with DfT. Once agreed, the ASR will form the basis of the appraisal of the Phase 2 A46 Link Road between the A46 Stoneleigh Junction and the University of Warwick.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 1 of 58 Figure 1 Steps in the Stage 1 Process – Identification of the ASR
Source – Transport Analysis Guidance: The Transport Appraisal Process, DfT, January 2014
1.2 CONTEXT Coventry City Council with support from Warwickshire County Council has reviewed the current and future problems on the transport network to assess the need and location for a potential intervention to address existing and future transport constraints and support future opportunities. As a component of the Phase 2 A46 Link Road Major Business Case (MSBC), as well as to inform this Appraisal Specification Report, an Option Assessment Report (OAR) has been developed. The OAR identified the following key current and future problems which needed to be addressed by an intervention: Traffic congestion, resulting in increased journey times, on key routes including the A45, Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh Road. Traffic congestion is reducing accessibility to employment and educational opportunities including the University of Warwick, Stoneleigh Park, Jaguar Land Rover’s Whitley site and Coventry Airport.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 2 of 58 Coventry City Council Public transport journeys are adversely affected by traffic congestion on routes to / from the University of Warwick. High volume of strategic trips on the A45 in South Coventry in the current situation between Tile Hill Lane / Charter Avenue and the Coventry Eastern Bypass. Lack of network resilience meaning planned maintenance or incidents result in long-diversions / delays for through traffic. Restriction of potential expansion to the University of Warwick due to lack of transport network capacity. High levels dependency on sustainable travel by students to / from the University of Warwick The greatest concentrations of casualties in the local area are on the A45, Charter Avenue, A429, A46, Westwood Road / Kirby Corner Road in the vicinity of the University of Warwick. High concentrations of pedestrian and cyclist accidents on the A45, Charter Avenue and the A429. Poor Air Quality within the City of Coventry, resulting in Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) designation. In order to mitigate these problems, and to maximise the future opportunities in South Coventry, the following scheme objectives have been identified: 1. Maintain journey times following development To enable the delivery of future housing, employment and educational development whilst maintaining journey times on the local network including on the A45; Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh Road. 2. Provide accessible economic development To deliver “desirable” average peak hour journey times close to those in the off peak to support accessibility to support future housing, employment and educational development sites in the local area. 3. Improve network resilience To ensure the transport network within Coventry and Warwickshire is resilient enough to provide a consistent and reliable level of service during (a) planned maintenance and (b) during incidents. 4. Improve University of Warwick accessibility To support the delivery of future development at the University of Warwick and reduce journey times for those travelling to / from the site. 5. Improve road safety To reduce the number and severity of accidents on the A45, A429, Charter Avenue, and at the A46 Stoneleigh junction. 6. Improve air quality To reduce the impact of transport on air quality within the City of Coventry to achieve levels below accepted thresholds for NO2. 7. Reduce severance To reduce vehicle flows on the A45, Stoneleigh Road and Gibbet Hill Road, and enable improved pedestrian and cycle crossing facilities and routes on the A45. 8. Reduce rat running To reduce vehicle flows on local roads including Crackley Lane and Hollis Lane in order to relieve capacity on the local network. Further details of the project background are provided in Chapter 2. This ASR will set out the assumptions and the methodology which are proposed for Stage 2 of the appraisal process (see Figure 1 above), for the Phase 2 A46 Link Road between the A46 Stoneleigh Junction and the University of Warwick. 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE The structure of this Phase 2 Link Road ASR is as follows: Project Background; Proposed Transport Modelling and Forecasting - Methodology ; Economic Case; Environmental Impacts Assessment; Social and Distributional impact Assessment; Active Modes Impact Assessment; Public Accounts; and Development of the Business Case. In addition to this, the Appraisal Specification Summary Tables (ASSTs) are provided in Appendix A (to be provided).
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 3 of 58 2 PROJECT BACKGROUND
2.1 INTRODUCTION This section summarises the content of the Option Assessment Report with the aim of providing the reader with the information regarding the appraisal process which has finally produced the preferred option to be assessed in the Stage 2 (Further Appraisal) with the methodology described later in this Appraisal Specification Report. 2.2 VISION The vision for the intervention has been developed in line with the overarching vision and objectives for the Coventry South Package, as well as key documents at national, regional and local level which the intervention needs to support. The Coventry South Package comprises a number of key transport interventions, including the A46 Link Road which will support the planned growth in population and employment forecast for this area. The vision sets out what the intervention seeks to achieve: To support planned sub-regional housing and employment growth within Warwick District, Coventry City and the wider A46 corridor as part of the Coventry South Package, including the University of Warwick’s emerging masterplan. As well as to reduce the inappropriate use of minor residential roads for traffic accessing the University and surrounding area.
The vision has been informed by and will shape the overall need for the intervention, including the development of the scheme specific objectives. 2.3 THE NEED FOR INTERVENTION 2.3.1 KEY CURRENT AND FUTURE PROBLEMS Based on the data collected for the Coventry and Warwickshire area, the following key observations were made for the current and future situation, which assist in highlighting the opportunities and constraints of the existing transport network in the area: Traffic congestion, resulting in longer journey times, on key routes including the A45, Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh Road. Restriction of expansion of local employment sites including JLR Whitley, Stoneleigh Park and the City Centre South Masterplan due to lack of capacity. Inability to unlock strategic housing sites because the existing transport network does not have capacity to meet projected travel demand. South Coventry is not an attractive place to live or work because of traffic congestion. Traffic congestion is reducing accessibility to employment and educational opportunities including the University of Warwick, Stoneleigh Park, Jaguar Land Rover’s Whitley site and Coventry Airport. Public transport journeys are adversely affected by traffic congestion on routes to / from the University of Warwick. High volume of strategic trips on the A45 in South Coventry in the current situation between Tile Hill Lane / Charter Avenue and the Coventry Eastern Bypass. Lack of network resilience meaning planned maintenance or incidents result in long-diversions / delays for through traffic. Restriction of expansion to the University of Warwick due to lack of transport network capacity. High levels of sustainable travel by students to / from the University of Warwick need to be supported to continue and grow in the future situation. The greatest concentrations of casualties in the local area are on the A45, Charter Avenue, A429, A46, Westwood Road / Kirby Corner Road in the vicinity of the University of Warwick. High concentrations of pedestrian and cyclist accidents on the A45, Charter Avenue and the A429.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 4 of 58 Coventry City Council Poor Air Quality within the City of Coventry requiring AQMA. Severance caused by high levels of traffic on the A45. Rat running on local roads around the University of Warwick and to the north of Kenilworth. Significant employment growth is planned for the future in Coventry and Warwickshire up to 2031, in particular in the South Coventry area. These developments need to be supported by the right infrastructure to maximise their benefits in terms of supporting economic growth and productivity in the local area. New developments have been proposed for sites including the following: Stoneleigh Park - 3,000 jobs by 20301 University of Warwick Masterplan - 5,762 jobs by 20182 Whitley Business Park - 3,800 jobs by 20213 Coventry and Warwickshire Gateway – 10,000 jobs by 20213 Furthermore, there is significant provision of new housing planned in the local area, with a total of up to almost 38,000 new dwellings proposed in the Coventry and Warwick District Local Plans up to 2031. In addition to this, the University of Warwick Masterplan also identifies the development of a minimum of 2,000 additional student bedrooms on the main campus. Two of the objectives of the wider Coventry South Package, of which the A46 Link Road is part of, are: To mitigate and support the housing and employment proposals contained within the Local Plans for Warwick District and Coventry City; and To support the growth aspirations of the University of Warwick and key existing and proposed employment sites within the immediate area and wider A46 corridor. Part of the vision of the Coventry South Package is to support planned sub-regional housing and employment growth within Warwick District, Coventry City, Solihull Metropolitan Borough and the wider A46 corridor. The Phase 2 A46 Link Road will play a key role in fulfilling the requirements to meet these objectives, and to support this part of the vision. The existing constraints and limitations of opportunities will become more significant issues in the future without the necessary interventions to prevent this from being the case. The analysis of the modelled future scenarios revealed a significant increase in delay with regard to both AM and PM peak periods. With 60% of Coventry and Warwickshire residents travelling to work in the current situation by car or van, mitigating this predicted increase in delay during peak periods will be essential. Specifically, the analysis was conducted using data extracted from the CASM Highway Assignment Model (HAM) 2019 and with the aim to highlight the junctions where delay had been greater in the 2019 and 2034 HE DoSomething (DS) scenario in comparison to the 2013 Base Year models. The Do Minimum models included population and employment growth constrained to the National Trip End Model (NTEM) version 6.2 and Local Plan developments which had been identified in the uncertainty logs as ‘More Than Likely’ or ‘Near Certain’. The Do Something models also included the M6 Junctions 2 - 4 Smart Motorway Improvement scheme. The results regarding the AM peak showed that the forecast growth in traffic demand between 2013 and 2034 is expected to increase total travel distance, total travel time and total network delay in the AM peak. Highway network delay is expected to increase by 77% between 2013 and 2034 as a result. Furthermore the increase in traffic demand on the network is expected to result in a decrease in average speed of up to 3kph in the Coventry LA area.
With regard to the PM peak, the results showed that the forecast growth in traffic demand between 2013 and 2034 is expected to increase total travel distance, total travel time and total network delay in the PM peak. Highway network delay in particular is expected to increase by 60% in the PM peak between 2013 and 2034.
1 Warwick District Council, 2017 2 University of Warwick Masterplan, 2007 3 Coventry Local Plan Modelling Report, December 2015
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 5 of 58 Furthermore the increase in traffic demand on the network is expected to result in a decrease in average speed of up to 2kph across the Coventry LA area.
2.3.2 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT As part of the understanding for the need for an intervention, the ongoing process of stakeholder engagement with all interested parties has started to take place between Coventry City Council and Warwickshire County Council and the following: University of Warwick; Commercial Estates Group (CEG); Crest Nicholson; Highways England; Warwick District Council; West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA); Department for Transport; Arup as primary designers for the King’s Hill development; Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council (SMBC); and HS2 Ltd. Wider consultation is to take place with stakeholders including Stoneleigh Park and Network Rail. Every effort has (to date) and will (in the future) be made to assimilate phasing and construction activities with HS2 Ltd and local developers to the mutual benefit of all parties in relation to commercial, sustainable, environmental and external stakeholder interfaces. Furthermore, the intervention will aim to minimise potential stakeholder objection whilst balancing impacts and potential user delays. As part of the ongoing stakeholder engagement process, it was recognised that Midlands Connect and the West Midlands Combined Authority need to be consulted with on the basis of their high level strategy documents which have been included as part of the policy and strategy review in Chapter 3 of this report and feeds into the scheme specific objectives development in this chapter. Going forward, an issues and options consultation for the intervention is planned to take place in autumn 2017 which will be supported by the outputs of this OAR including challenges identified in this work, particularly around Westwood Heath and HS2. Further to this scheme options consultation is proposed to take place in spring 2018 which will feed into the Outline Business Case. 2.4 THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE OBJECTIVES A number of specific objectives were developed to eliminate or mitigate the issues defined in the section regarding the need for intervention. The objectives were established in concertation with the stakeholders where possible in the understanding of the issues and opportunities for the need for an intervention as identified in the previous stages of the appraisal process. The following table outlines the logic process undertaken from the identification of the key current problems to which a number of SMART scheme specific objectives have been developed. That is: Specific - say in precise terms what is sought; Measurable – the means by which satisfaction whether or not the objective has been achieved can be assessed; Attainable - general agreement that the objective set can be reached; Relevant - the objective is a sensible indicator or proxy for the change which is sought; and Timed - the objective will be associated with an agreed future point by which it will have been met. In recognition of the current and future problems in the local area, the approach to objective setting for the intervention has been: 1. Establish a Vision – through consideration of local, regional and government policies and strategies, as well as the wider Coventry South Package, establish an overarching vision for the study area and desired strategic outcomes.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 6 of 58 Coventry City Council 2. Analysis of Current and Future situation – looking at transport network and its users, analysis to provide an understanding of the problems and opportunities that exist or may exist in the future. 3. Setting Transport Objectives – By identifying the problems, the opportunities to improve the current and future situation emerge to which measureable objectives can be set against. 4. Setting of Indicators – For each objective there needs to be at least one indicator that can provide some measure of success. This allows comparison between options during the appraisal and, ultimately, will support the evaluation of the implemented solution.
As a result of this process, the scheme specific objectives are: 1. Maintain journey times following development To enable the delivery of future housing, employment and educational development whilst maintaining journey times on the local network including on the A45; Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh Road 2. Provide accessible economic development To deliver “desirable” average peak hour journey times close to those in the off peak to support accessibility to support future housing, employment and educational development sites in the local area. 3. Improve network resilience To ensure the transport network within Coventry and Warwickshire is resilient enough to provide a consistent and reliable level of service during (a) planned maintenance and (b) during incidents. 4. Improve University of Warwick accessibility To support the delivery of future development at the University of Warwick and reduce journey times for those travelling to / from the site. 5. Improve road safety To reduce the number and severity of accidents on the A45, A429, Charter Avenue, and at the A46 Stoneleigh junction. 6. Improve air quality To reduce the impact of transport on air quality within the City of Coventry to achieve levels below accepted thresholds for NO2. 7. Reduce severance To reduce vehicle flows on the A45, Stoneleigh Road and Gibbet Hill Road, and enable improved pedestrian and cycle crossing facilities and routes on the A45. 8. Reduce rat running To reduce vehicle flows on local roads including Crackley Lane and Hollis Lane in order to relieve capacity on the local network.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 7 of 58 Table 1 - Scheme Specific Objectives
Key current or future problems Draft objectives Measures of success Note
- Traffic congestion, resulting in longer journey times, on key routes including the A45, Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh Road. Maintain journey times - Average Peak Hour Journey Times (mins) for traffic on - Restriction of expansion of local following development the following routes: employment sites including JLR To enable the delivery of future Whitley, Stoneleigh Park and the o A45 between Stonebridge Island and Festival housing, employment and Island; 1 City Centre South Masterplan due educational development whilst - to lack of capacity. o Cromwell Lane to A45 at Pickford Green; and maintaining journey times on the - Inability to unlock strategic housing local network including on the A45; sites because the existing transport o Stoneleigh Road to Cromwell Lane. Cromwell Lane and Stoneleigh network does not have capacity to - Variation between free flow journey times and average Road. meet projected travel demand. peak hour journey times. - Increased transport costs to local businesses. -
- Average Peak Hour Journey Time (mins) by mode Provide accessible economic (Private Car; public transport; Cycling; Walking) on - Traffic congestion reduces development routes including A45, A46, and A429 Kenilworth Road accessibility to employment and for access to / from: To deliver “desirable” average peak - Could be tied more to educational opportunities. o The new housing development sites at Kings population within x minutes / 2 hour journey times close to those in - Public transport journeys are Hill, Westwood Heath, Cromwell Lane and the off peak to support accessibility journey time of key adversely affected by traffic Eastern Green. to support future housing, employment locations. congestion on routes to / from the o The new and growing employment sites at employment and educational University of Warwick. Eastern Green, Stoneleigh Park and Whitley development sites in the local area. South; as well as supporting access to sites in the wider strategic area including UK Central
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 8 of 58 Coventry City Council and HS2 Interchange.
- High volume of strategic trips on the - The resilience objective could A45 in South Coventry in the Improve network resilience address frequency in addition current situation which join / exit the To ensure the transport network to severity of incident delays; A45 at Tile Hill Lane and Charter within Coventry and Warwickshire is with frequency likely to be a Avenue in the west, travelling to / - Level of service and queue lengths for traffic on A45 resilient enough to provide a qualitative assessment in 3 from the Coventry Eastern Bypass between Stonebridge Island and Festival Island. consistent and reliable level of relation to ability of north east towards - Total delay and total vehicle-kms with / without A45 service during (a) planned infrastructure to deal with - Lack of network resilience meaning (lower than current levels). maintenance and (b) during climate events (incidents planned maintenance or incidents incidents. being dealt with under safety result in long-diversions / delays for objective). through traffic.
- Restriction of expansion to the Improve University of University of Warwick due to lack of - Average Peak Hour Journey Time (mins) by mode Warwick accessibility transport network capacity. (Private Car; Public Transport; Cycling; Walking) on 4 - High levels of sustainable travel by To support the delivery of future routes including Cromwell Lane, Gibbet Hill Road, students to / from the University of development at the University of Stoneleigh Road and Charter Avenue. Warwick need to be supported to Warwick and reduce journey times - Future university of Warwick Travel Surveys – mode continue and grow in the future for those travelling to / from the site. split target for both staff and students situation.
- The greatest concentrations of - Accident numbers on: casualties in the local area are on Improve road safety the A45, Charter Avenue, A429, o The A45 between the A452 / A45 junction and - The economic appraisal of A46, Westwood Road / Kirby To reduce the number and severity the A45 / A46 / A444 junction (A46 Festival the scheme will use COBALT 5 Corner Road in the vicinity of the of accidents on the A45, A429, Island); (COst and Benefit to University of Warwick. Charter Avenue, and at the A46 o Charter Avenue; Accidents - Light Touch) for - High concentrations of pedestrian Stoneleigh junction. the impact on accidents. and cyclist accidents on the A45, o The A429 between the A429 / A45 junction Charter Avenue and the A429. and the A429 / A45 junction; and
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 9 of 58 o The A46 Stoneleigh junction.
- Appraisal will consider Improve air quality environmental impact and mitigation of proposed - Poor Air Quality within the City of To reduce the impact of transport on interventions. Objective 6 - NO2 Levels at key receptors within Coventry City Coventry resulting in designation as air quality within the City of aimed at addressing AQMA. an AQMA. Coventry to achieve levels below opportunity for the options to accepted thresholds for NO2. make improvements to air quality in the City of Coventry.
Reduce severance - The economic appraisal of To reduce vehicle flows on the A45, the scheme will assess the impact of severance, 7 - Severance caused by high levels of Stoneleigh Road and Gibbet Hill - Change in vehicle flows on the A45, Stoneleigh Road especially in relation to traffic on the A45. Road, and enable improved and Gibbet Hill Road. pedestrian and cycle crossing impact on active modes such facilities and routes on the A45. as cycling and walking.
- Rat running on local roads around Reduce rat running the University of Warwick and to the To reduce vehicle flows on local north of Kenilworth. 8 roads including Crackley Lane and - Change in vehicle flows on Crackley Lane and Hollis - - Capacity constraints due to rat Hollis Lane in order to relieve Lane. running leading to congestion on capacity on the local network. the local network.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 10 of 58 Coventry City Council 2.5 GEOGRAPHICAL AREA INVOLVED IN THE INTERVENTION The geographical area of impact has been defined in terms of the area to be addressed by the intervention. This draws upon the geographical scope of the key origins, destinations and economic growth sites in the area; as well as analysis of the current and future transport demand. Based on the results of the analysis undertaken in the above chapters of the report, the key area of focus for the opportunities and constraints in Coventry and Warwickshire is in South Coventry and the north of the District of Warwick in the vicinity of Kenilworth. The network which is primary involved in the study area is shown in Figure 2. Future development sites in the study area are shown in Figure 3. There are a wider range of environmental land use constraints and opportunities to consider as part of the development of the intervention as shown in Figure 4. This includes ensuring minimal impact on priority habitats, green belt land, listing buildings, etc. where possible. Furthermore the location of listed buildings, designated parks and gardens, designated scheduled monument and designated world heritage site should also be considered, the locations of which are shown in Figure 5 shows in the study area. Figure 2 Geographic Scope Highway Network Area Coverage
Source - WSP
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 11 of 58 Figure 3 Future Development in South Coventry
Source - Coventry City Council, 2017
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 12 of 58 Coventry City Council
Figure 4 Greenbelt, SSIs and Nature Reserves in Study Area
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 13 of 58 Figure 5 Heritage Sites in Study Area
2.6 PREFERRED OPTION 2.6.1 INTRODUCTION A range of options have been identified to cover the needs for an intervention and to support the scheme objectives. The options feature a wide a choice of modes, infrastructure, costs, influencing of travel behaviour and need to travel, revenue and capital spend, land use requirements as possible in the generation of the options including: Public transport provisions: Coventry to University of Warwick Sprint bus route - The introduction of a new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) route between Coventry City Centre and the University of Warwick. Highways infrastructure. A45 capacity improvements - Highway capacity improvements on the A45 in the form of an underpass at the A429 / A45 junction. Gibbet Hill Junction Improvements - Highway capacity improvements at the Gibbet Hill Road / A429 / Stoneleigh Road junction. Westwood Heath Road / Cromwell Lane Highway Improvements - Highway capacity improvements on Cromwell Lane and the signalisation of the junction with Westwood Heath Road. A46 Link Road to University of Warwick - The development of a new link road between the A46 / Stoneleigh Road junction and the University of Warwick. Travel planning and active travel measures had been also considered as part of the options generation process, but these options were not brought forward as they do not fully support the scheme objectives.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 14 of 58 Coventry City Council After the sifting process (step 6 of the appraisal process), the preferred option for the intervention was the Phase 2 A46 Link Road to the University of Warwick. The link road will run south to north, from the A46 / Stoneleigh Road junction, approximately 5km to Kirby Corner / Westwood Heath Road / Cromwell Lane in Westwood Heath. Phase 1 of the A46 Link Road will see junction improvements at the A46 Stoneleigh Junction to provide the necessary capacity at the existing junction to cope with additional demand as a result of the development of the new link road. The route for the Phase 2 A46 Link Road will run adjacent to the west of University of Warwick central campus where significant housing development is proposed as part of the University’s Masterplan. The new link road will support wider housing and employment policies in the area, including development as Westwood Heath and Kings Hill, increasing resilience on this part of the network and freeing up capacity on the A45 to support the route to become a greater public transport corridor for connectivity to the wider West Midlands, including UK Central. 2.6.2 PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD IN FUTURE LOCAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT The proposed route location and study area for the A46 Link Road is shown overleaf in Figure 6. The map shows the relationship between the proposed Link Road and development sites in Solihull Local Development Plan, Coventry Local Development Plan and Warwickshire Local Development Plan The scheme location is shown in context of the surrounding infrastructure including: Railway routes / stations including the proposed HS2 route / station; Key road network including surrounding A and B roads and motorways; and Urban areas. Immediately accessible by the link road are Warwick University Extension and the Cromwell Lane Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE). The former will see considerable expansion of the university in terms of staff employment and additional students provided for, as well as other supporting functions such as a new nursery / day care facility. The latter is a proposal for 240 residential dwellings. The developments proximity to the link road means that it will be significant in providing access to the wider area. There are several developments in the wider area which the link road will enable increased access to, without the traffic needing to travel via the existing, congested links. At the western end, this includes the Eastern Green SUE which will provide 2,250 dwellings and 15 hectares of employment land. At the Eastern end, the Link Road will provide access from the west to the new employment site at Coventry Gateway and the forthcoming expansions in employment at the National Agricultural Centre / Showground and Abbey Park. The figure shows that there is a strong railway network in the study area, which should be supported by a robust road network to support journey time reliability for door-to-door connections, in particular to support access to Tile Hill Railway Station and car park enhancements outlined in the Coventry South Package. In addition, the option will support resilience for access to railway stations with the A46 Link Road providing an alternative to the A45, and strategic connectivity in Warwickshire between the A45 and A46, bypassing Coventry City Centre. This in turn, will have a positive impact on the A45, both in terms of economic and social benefits of greater journey time reliability for business users and public transport users on this route. The A46 Link Road route largely runs parallel to the HS2 route in the study area, and will provide essential connectivity northbound towards UK Central for links to the A45 towards the HS2 Interchange Station. In supporting access to the A45 the Link Road will provide greater access to the wider Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership (GBS LEP) area including Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) Solihull Plant. 2.6.3 A46 LINK ROAD SUPPORT TO STRATEGIC HIGHWAY CONNECTIVITY The proposed link road will provide a connection between the A46 south of Coventry and the University of Warwick, providing an alternative route the southern and western edges of the City. The link road will provide an alternative route to the A45 and A46 for trips in the west and south of Coventry. The impact of the link road will support network resilience in the local area, where road closures occur on surrounding route to ensure that traffic can continue to operate via an alternative route. As well as highway connections, the proposed link road will also provide access from locations south of Coventry to the extensive Park and Ride facility at Tile Hill railway station as part of the Coventry South Package. The station provides services on a 20 minute frequency between Birmingham and London Euston for much of the day. En route, the trains call at Birmingham International for access to UK Central and in the
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 15 of 58 future connections to the HS2 Interchange Station. As well as London Euston, Tile Hill provides direct services southbound to Milton Keynes and Northampton.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 16 of 58 Coventry City Council Figure 6 A46 Link Road Study Area and Key Developments
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 17 of 58 3 PROPOSED TRANSPORT MODELLING AND FORECASTING - METHODOLOGY
3.1 INTRODUCTION In compliance with WebTAG – The Transport Appraisal Process, this section of the report presents the proposed approach to modelling and forecasting. The chapter reports the characteristics and details regarding the base model building process and forecasting modelling which is proposed to be utilised for the assessment of the impacts. 3.2 2013 BASE MODEL 3.2.1 BACKGROUND To assess the A46 Link road scheme it is proposed to use the 2013 Coventry Area Strategic Model (CASM) which has been developed jointly by Highways England, Coventry City Council and Warwickshire County Council. The area covered by the model is shown in Figure 7. Figure 7 - Coventry Area Strategic Model Area
Coventry
Warwick
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 18 of 58 Coventry City Council The CASM transport model currently contains the following elements: 2013 Highway Assignment Model (HAM). 2013 Public Transport Model (PTAM). 2013 Demand Model (DM). Reference Case Forecast Years: 2019 2026 2034 2041 The model was developed and utilised for the assessment of several schemes, among which include the smart motorways scheme - M6 Junctions 2-4; therefore, other scenarios including do-minimum and do- something were specifically considered with regard the appraisal of these schemes. The 2013 base year model and all future year scenarios for the M6 Junction 2-4 were formally agreed as being fit for purpose by Highways England. All model documentation, including the Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) for the highway and public transport assignment models, the Demand Model Development and Calibration Report containing the Demand Model results and the Forecasting Report were agreed by the Highway England and their consultants for the assessment of the scheme regarding the M6 Junctions 2-4. 3.2.2 2013 CASM HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT MODEL 3.2.2.1 OVERVIEW OF CASM HAM The trip matrices for CASM were developed from the 2011 PRISM 4.1 HAM prior matrices. PRISM is the West Midlands strategic transport model which has been developed by RAND Europe, Mott MacDonald and Centro, on behalf of Highways England, Centro and West Midlands Local Authorities. Although this model includes the district of Coventry the level of detail within this area is coarse, and its detail is reduces outside the Metropolitan area. The PRISM model contains a highway assignment model and a public transport model, both developed in the ‘VISUM’ software platform, along with a stand-alone demand model in A-Logit. Further details can be found in the CASM LMVR. Key changes which were incorporated in the matrices include: Factoring up External-External trips, reflecting the different model coverage between CASM and PRISM; and Infilling the matrices with 2011 census Journey to Work trips (JTW). This was used to enhance the Car Non Work matrices where only JTW trips higher than the existing values were replaced and where the destination zones are work places. This helped to increase the trip matrix detail within the Coventry area. Once the prior matrices for each time period had reached a good level of calibration, matrix estimation (ME) was then used on screen lines and individual counts ensuring that the matrix was not significantly distorted. More details of the prior matrix development and matrix estimation can be found in the CASM LMVR. The CASM 2013 HAM is developed within PTV VISUM (strategic / macro-simulation) and uses the Intersection Capacity Analysis (ICA) to represent highway junction capacity in the simulation area. This method will guarantee an accurate calculation of the delay at nodes. Details regarding the method of impedance (delay) at nodes, speed flow curve relationships (on links) and further information on network coding can be found in the CASM LMVR. The CASM HAM was originally developed from PRISM 4.1; it has the following user classes (or demand segments): Car Work; Car Non-Work (Commuting); Car Non-Work (Other); Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs); and Light Goods Vehicles (LGVs) (e.g. supermarket delivery trips). As part of the refinements for the A46 Link Road, the ‘Car Non-Work’ user class has been split into ‘commuting’ and ‘other’ by introducing data regarding Journey to Work trips. The assumption is that all journeys to work are ‘car commuting’ trip purpose and all ‘other trips purpose’ were ‘Car Other’. Other details
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 19 of 58 on the modelling process, including network and matrix improvements and additional observed data used can be found in the detailed modelling note, produced for the DfT in May 2017, see Appendix B. The modelled time periods are: AM Peak: 08:00-09:00 Inter Peak: 11:00-14:00 (single average hour) PM Peak: 17:00-18:00 3.2.2.2 CASM STUDY AREA AND NETWORK The study area for the A46 Link Road scheme is illustrated in Figure 3.2. The figure also shows the area where the scheme is proposed (identified in the Figure 3.2 with the red boundary) and the existing highway network coded within the CASM HAM; the latter has been enhanced in the study area following comments from the DfT in autumn 2016 (regarding Phase 1). The following have been incorporated: Network Coding – additional highway network in the area included Observed counts – more observed counts added into the local area Zoning system – zones reduced in size to provide more accurate allocation of trips onto the highway network. Figure 8 - CASM Study Area: Highway Network and location of the scheme
Source - WSP The figure illustrates how the main and rural roads within the area of interest are represented in the 2013 CASM HAM.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 20 of 58 Coventry City Council 3.2.2.3 CASM ZONING SYSTEM The CASM zoning system has been disaggregated following comments from the DfT in autumn 2016 regarding Stoneleigh Junction (Phase 1). It is important to note that the zone system along the A46 phase 2 and 3 route was also disaggregated as part of this process, delivering a model fit for the purpose of modelling all phases of the link road. Figure 9 illustrates the CASM zoning in the vicinity of the scheme with the zones that were targeted for refinement outlined in red. Figure 10 illustrates the updated CASM zoning, with the refined zones outlined in blue. . It is assumed that the refined and updated zoning system in the study area is sufficiently detailed and no changes are proposed for this business case. Figure 9 - CASM Zoning Pre-Refinement
Source – WSP
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 21 of 58 Figure 10 - CASM Zoning Refinements
Source – WSP
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 22 of 58 Coventry City Council 3.2.2.4 Current Model Performance in Study Area – Traffic Flows The current 2013 CASM HAM utilises counts available in the study area. Figure 11 illustrates the links in which the counts have been available. The number of counts within the A46 Stoneleigh Junction area has been enhanced to ensure a good coverage on all the local roads.
Figure 11 - 2013 CASM Traffic Count Locations
The performance of the AM peak, Inter Peak and PM peak period modelled flows in comparison with observed traffic counts in terms of meeting WebTAG criteria are illustrated in Figure 12 to Figure 14. According to WebTAG, with regard to link flow validation, the measures which should be used are: The absolute and percentage differences between modelled flows and counts; and The GEH statistic, which is a form of the Chi-squared statistic that incorporates both relative and absolute errors. The validation criteria and acceptability guidelines for link flows and turning movements are defined in the following table:
Table 2 - Link Flow and Turning Movement Validation Criteria Criteria Description of Criteria Acceptability Guideline 1 Individual flows within 100 veh/h of counts for flows less than >85% of cases 700 veh/h Individual flows within 15% of counts for flows from 700 to 2,700 >85% of cases veh/h Individual flows within 400 veh/h of counts for flows more than >85% of cases 2,700 veh/h 2 GEH ,5 for individual flows >85% of cases Source – DfT WebTAG Unit M3.1
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 23 of 58 Figure 12 - 2013 CASM AM Peak Performance
All counts meeting either flow or GEH criteria are coloured green, those with a GEH greater than 5 but less than 10 are orange and those greater than 10 red. Figure 12 illustrates that during the AM peak period, 81 % of sites within a GEH of 5, which is just below the WebTAG acceptability criteria of more than 85%.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 24 of 58 Coventry City Council Figure 13 - 2013 CASM Inter Peak Performance
Figure 13 illustrates that during the Inter Peak period, the performance of the model within the A46 Stoneleigh Junction area is good, with 96 % of sites within a GEH of 5, or meeting WebTAG flow criteria.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 25 of 58 Figure 14 - 2013 CASM PM Peak Performance
Figure 14 illustrates that during the PM peak period 82 % of sites are within a GEH of 5, which is just under the WebTAG acceptability criteria of more than 85%.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 26 of 58 Coventry City Council 3.2.2.5 CURRENT MODEL PERFORMANCE IN STUDY AREA – JOURNEY TIMES In the development of the 2013 base model observed Trafficmaster data has been used to generate observed journey time data along key routes. Three journey time routes have been considered within the study area; these are illustrated in Figure 15. Figure 15 - Journey Time Routes
The journey time routes are: Route 6 – along A429 Kenilworth Road (from the junction with Gibbet Hill Rd) and Coventry Ring Road (to the junction with A4114); Route 15 – along A46 and A45 between M6 Junction 2 and M42 Junction 6; and Route 16 – along A46 between M40 Junction 15 and A46 Stivichall Interchange. Table 3 summarises the 2013 CASM HAM modelled and observed journey times for these three routes.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 27 of 58 Table 3 - Journey Time Performance Time Period Journey Time Observed Modelled Percentage Within Range? Route Journey Time Journey Time Difference (mins) (mins)
Route 6 NB 08:27 07:45 -8%
Route 6 SB 12:12 09:37 -21%
Route 15 EB 27:10 28:55 6% AM Peak Route 15 WB 35:03 28:42 -18%
Route 16 NB 09:05 09:32 5%
Route 16 SB 09:04 09:22 3%
Route 6 NB 07:51 06:28 -18%
Route 6 SB 08:41 08:56 3%
Route 15 EB 23:36 25:19 7% Inter Peak Route 15 WB 24:10 25:31 6%
Route 16 NB 08:46 09:04 3%
Route 16 SB 08:47 09:02 3%
Route 6 NB 08:46 06:54 -21%
Route 6 SB 12:53 19:08 49%
Route 15 EB 27:33 30:26 10% PM Peak Route 15 WB 29:31 28:45 -3%
Route 16 NB 08:57 09:26 5%
Route 16 SB 08:44 09:33 9%
The table shows that the majority of modelled journey times meet the WebTAG criteria of being within +/-15% of the observed journey time. Those routes and time periods which do not meet the criteria include: Route 6NB in the IP and PM peak periods; Route 6 SB in the AM and PM peak periods; and Route 15 WB in the AM peak period. In addition to the Original CASM journey time routes, as part of the re-calibration process for Phase 1, seven additional journey time routes were incorporated into the model, as illustrated in Figure 16.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 28 of 58 Coventry City Council Figure 16 - Additional Journey Time Routes
The performance of these additional journey time routes is shown in Table 4.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 29 of 58 Table 4 - Journey Time Performance Additional Journey Time Routes Time Period Journey Time Observed Journey Modelled Journey Percentage Within Route Time (secs) Time (secs) Difference Range? JT1 NB 349 338 -3% JT1 SB 343 339 -1% JT2 NB 386 352 -9% JT2 SB 399 362 -9% JT3 NB 589 362 -39% JT3 SB 463 403 -13% JT4 NB 349 329 -6% AM Peak JT4 SB 378 277 -27% JT5 NB 399 353 -11% JT5 SB 371 356 -4% JT6 NB 374 344 -8% JT6 SB 369 332 -10% JT7 NB 502 472 -6% JT7 SB 529 482 -9% JT1 NB 353 335 -5% JT1 SB 341 334 -2% JT2 NB 361 348 -4% JT2 SB 376 357 -5% JT3 NB 307 327 7% JT3 SB 332 373 13% JT4 NB 284 313 10% Inter Peak JT4 SB 253 263 4% JT5 NB 385 342 -11% JT5 SB 377 341 -9% JT6 NB 348 318 -9% JT6 SB 356 316 -11% JT7 NB 499 472 -5% JT7 SB 486 466 -4% JT1 NB 335 335 0% JT1 SB 346 338 -2% JT2 NB 369 350 -5% PM Peak JT2 SB 372 362 -3% JT3 NB 571 344 -40% JT3 SB 426 431 1% JT4 NB 313 334 7%
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 30 of 58 Coventry City Council Time Period Journey Time Observed Journey Modelled Journey Percentage Within Route Time (secs) Time (secs) Difference Range? JT4 SB 333 272 -18% JT5 NB 391 357 -9% JT5 SB 368 346 -6% PM Peak JT6 NB 360 339 -6% JT6 SB 364 327 -10% JT7 NB 530 495 -7% JT7 SB 494 477 -3%
Table 5 shows the combined performance of both the original and additional journey time routes within CASM.
Table 5 - CASM Journey Time Performance AM Peak Inter Peak PM Peak
All Routes 80% 95% 80%
The data in Table 5 demonstrates that a high proportion of modelled journey times are within the ranges outlined in DfT guidance, and for a model of this size represent a good fit and a robust basis for journey time validation. 3.2.2.6 2013 CASM Public Transport Model As with the Highway Assignment Model, the Public Transport (PT) Model was also derived from the PRISM model. This took the public transport networks, assignment parameters and demand matrices as the starting point for the development of the CASM PTAM. Network coding was improved and updated in the local area using 2013 timetables for routes serving Coventry and Warwickshire. The demand matrices included all public transport users of bus, rail and Midland Metro services with a trip end in the West Midlands conurbation, as well as through trips (predominantly by rail) which pass through the study area. The demand segments from PRISM have been retained in the CASM PTAM, namely: “Fare” which represents passengers who pay for their journey as a cash fare at the time of making the journey “No Fare” which represents those passengers who do not pay at time of travel (e.g. those who receive a concession (such as senior citizens), season tickets and pass holders PLD – (Planet Long Distance) represent long distance demand passing through the study area, included to ensure network loadings include all demand within the study area. 3.2.2.7 PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK The starting point for the CASM PTAM was the PRISM public transport model which was provided to WSP by Mott MacDonald. The CASM PTAM has the same zoning system as the CASM TDM and HAM. The CASM PTAM network comprises of a number of key features: A node and link network - represents the highway links bus services operate along, and rail lines along which rail services follow. Stop points - (coded as clusters i.e. a rail station, a bus station, or bus stops on opposite side of the road would each be a cluster, rather than modelling separate bus stop/rail platforms). Lines - The public transport services (including timetables) which operate along the links, serving relevant stops. Modelled time periods are consistent with PRISM, being representative of an average school term weekday: AM peak: 07:00-09:00
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 31 of 58 Inter peak 10:00-12:00 PM peak: 16:00-18:00 As the CASM PTAM is a 2013 base year, the future year PRISM PT network provision (representative of 2013 service) was used as a starting point. This network provided the best input to CASM PTAM networks as it included significant bus route changes in Coventry not included in the 2011 base year PRISM network. The public transport network as supplied in VISUM format by Mott MacDonald is presented in Figure 3.10. Details of the rail and bus services included are provided in Appendix D. In December 2014 a comprehensive public transport data collection exercise was undertaken and the CASM Data Collection Report produced (February 2016). Origin destination surveys were conducted at railway stations (Coventry, Warwick, Leamington, Nuneaton, Rugby and Bedworth), with bus passenger counts at cordon and western screenline to provide calibration data. The information collected by these surveys was collected with the aims of Updating demand matrices Providing model calibration and validation data Providing more detailed information on the bus network informing the bus network review and calibration. It was recognised that there would be amendments to the public transport network coding to develop a 2013 year base and WSP requested an updated version of the public transport network data which was provided by Centro from Google Transit Feed (GTFS) format. This network provides a full representation of bus services for a single weekday in 2014, supplementing the network data received from PRISM. The GTFS data was converted into a VISUM network using the functionality built into VISUM.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 32 of 58 Coventry City Council Figure 17 - CASM PTAM Modelled Area
Area Boundary
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 33 of 58 3.2.2.8 2013 CASM Demand Model (DM) The CASM TDM is a conventional absolute synthetic model applied incrementally. The purpose of the CASM TDM model is to predict the impacts of growth in houses and jobs in the future on trip mode and distributions patterns. The CASM TDM model generates the future year public transport and highway matrices taking into consideration the changes in population and employment in the study area. It is necessary for the 2013 CASM TDM to represent existing conditions to be a robust tool for the forecasting process. The model hierarchy is in line with the Department for Transport TAG Guidance (which is favoured by Mott MacDonald and RAND Europe who are the developers of the Policy Responsive Integrated Strategy Model (PRISM) Demand Model). It represents traveller responses including: Trip generation Choice of mode (car, public transport, cycling or walking) Choice of (macro) time of day (AM peak: 07:00-10:00, Inter-Peak: 10:00-16:00, PM peak: 16:00-19:00) Trip distribution among destinations. Travellers are segmented by trip purpose, person type, and car availability. The CASM TDM represents personal trips including commuting to work and employer business trips. However it does not deal with demand responses for HGVs and LGVs. The CASM LMVR and M6 Junction 2-4 Forecasting Report provides more details on the representation of HGVs and LGVs, in summary the HGV and LGV matrices from the 2013 calibrated models use growth from the National Road Traffic Forecasts for the West Midlands. The model base year (2013) has been identified to be the best representation of traffic in Coventry, as in 2014 there were significant junction improvements occurring on the Coventry highway network. The CASM TDM has been calibrated to fit as closely as possible to existing observed trip data. A series of comparisons were undertaken based on different modelled outputs from each stage, providing a holistic assessment of the strength of the CASM TDM. The following observed datasets were used as comparator data for calibration: Census Journey to Work (JTW) data from 2011 National Transport Survey (NTS) data from 2013 predominantly table NTS0308 (including average number of trips by trip length and main mode) Data from PRISM, a strategic model for the West Midlands, to verify mode share and time of day splits Data from the Traffic Flow Data System (TRADS) to verify time of day splits for car trips. The comparisons showed that the CASM TDM outputs are broadly in line with observed data and patterns. These are all presented within the CASM Transport Demand Model Development and Calibration Report. 3.3 FORECASTING It is proposed that the following scenarios are developed within both the CASM HAM and Demand Model in the 2026 and 2041 Forecast Year models: DM – with Stoneleigh Junction Phase 1; DS – with Stoneleigh Junction Phase 1 and Phase 2 (New Link Road as far as Warwick University); Construction Phase (s) The forecast years tie in with opening of HS2 phase 1 (and its demand impact) and a 15 year horizon beyond this point. At the current time the construction phases for the project are unknown, once these have been developed we will identify which phases need to be assessed within the CASM model and economic assessment undertaken on the impacts within TUBA. A individual note about how CASM proposes to incorporate HS2 was circulated to the DfT in September 2017 and can be found in Appendix C. An Uncertainty Log has been produced which defines the Core Scenario as containing all developments and schemes deemed “near certain” and “more than likely.” The low growth scenario will only include developments and schemes classified as “near certain”, whilst the high growth scenario will include all the identified local developments and schemes.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 34 of 58 Coventry City Council 3.4 CONCLUSION The proposed methodology is deemed to suit the assessment of Phase 2. The base model has been developed utilising the CASM 2013 Base transport model. The calibrated and validated base model and the forecasting methodology were formally agreed as being fit for purpose by Highways England for the assessment of the scheme regarding the M6 Junctions 2-4. Amendments have been agreed with the Authorities with regard to the zoning system and the network coding to suit the appraisal of this scheme. The forecasting will consider the committed schemes and developments according to the respective uncertainty logs as to build the core with and without scheme scenarios. Sensitivity tests will be undertaken as part of the construction process which will be defined once these have been identified by the authorities. Moreover, the Transport Demand Model is a variable demand model and, as such, allows us to also assess the traffic induced by the implementation of the scheme by reconsidering, along with the assignment, also mode choice and redistribution. This will also enable a more accurate assessment of the ‘Wider Impacts’ (see next chapter). The model will provide the input for the Department from Transport tools TUBA (Transport User Benefits Appraisal) and COBALT (COst and Benefit to Accidents - Light Touch) for the economic appraisal (see next chapter).
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 35 of 58 4 ECONOMIC CASE – PROPOSED IMPACTS ASSESSMENT
4.1 INTRODUCTION This section of the report sets out the proposed methodology for assessing each of the sub-impacts presented within the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). The chapter will follow the structure of the AST, considering the sets of sub-impacts: Economy, Environmental and Social. The AST also reports a section regarding Public Accounts, which presents the details regarding the ‘Cost to Broad Transport Budget’ and the ‘Indirect Tax Revenue’; however, these subjects will be treated in the later chapters of this report. For each sub-impact, we will ensure a proportionate appraisal method is applied, which supports the wider rationale and assumptions and presents these outputs in the appropriate formats (quantitative, qualitative, monetary, etc.) The appraisal will regard a 60-year appraisal period and the monetisation of the impacts for the entire period will refer to values discounted to 2010. As outlined above, the results from the impacts appraisal will populate the AST; moreover, some of the impact assessments will also populate the other Economic tables, which are: Economic Efficiency of the Transport System (TEE), the Public Accounts (PA) and the Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) for the Economic Appraisal and Value for Money Statement. In addition, at the end of this report the Appraisal Specification Summary Table (ASST) is reported in Appendix A. The ASST will report for each single sub-impact the estimated impact and the level of uncertainty presented in the Option Assessment Report (OAR). 4.2 ECONOMY 4.2.1 BUSINESS USERS AND TRANSPORT PROVIDERS As stated in WebTAG Unit 1.3, users perceive both money costs and time costs associated with the trips they make. When someone makes a trip, these costs will be outweighed by the opportunities and potential benefits at the destination. This potentially exaggerates freedom of choice in the short term since, having made decisions about where to live, work or locate a business, individuals and businesses may have limited options about the trips they have to make. However, in the longer term, and for the purposes of appraisal, use of the transport system is assumed to be the result of a balanced consideration of the relative “pros” and “cons” by each individual decision-maker, subject to the various constraints that exist. The assessment of consumer surplus should incorporate changes to the following components of perceived cost: changes in travel time; changes in user charges, including fares, tariffs and tolls; and changes in vehicle operating costs met by the user (i.e. for private transport). The surplus associated with making a journey will not be the same for everybody and depends on the benefit each individual derives from making that journey. The demand generally responds to changes in cost in a way such that a reduction in cost will lead to an increase in demand. WebTAG Unit A1.3 recommends the application of the ‘Rule of a Half’ to the change in consumer surplus with regard to the new trips (new demand) using the new transport scheme. The impact on Business Users will be undertaken through a quantitative and monetary assessment. The quantification will be based on changes in business user journey times savings and Vehicle Operating Costs (VOCs). This includes during periods of construction and maintenance. Journey Time savings will be directly derived from the modelling outputs and the DfT’s Transport User Benefits Appraisal (TUBA) tool will be used to calculate the benefits for transport user and providers, which implements a ‘willingness to pay’ approach to the economic appraisal. The input values used in the appraisal calculations will be based on those in the latest WebTAG Data Book, which reports the most up-to-date Values of Time (VOT) and Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) for each user class. In compliance with WebTAG Unit A1.3, TUBA applies the ‘Rule of a Half’ to the change in consumer surplus with regard to the new trips (new demand) by the new scheme. According to the proportions reported in the WebTAG Data Book, TUBA will split the vehicle class ‘LGV’ into ‘LGV Business’ and ‘LGV Personal’; the impact regarding the ‘LGV Business’ is then incorporated in the calculation of the impact on ‘Business Users’.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 36 of 58 Coventry City Council For Business User Impact, transport providers are focused on changes to revenues, capital and operating costs for private sector transport providers. Public transport impacts will be included as part of the Public Accounts section. This analysis will be based on the estimated changes in the number of trips and their journey times and costs. 4.2.2 RELIABILITY IMPACT ON BUSINESS USERS Impact on reliability will be based on the guidance in WebTAG Unit A1.3. Reliability refers to variation in journey times that individuals are unable to predict (such as journey time variability, or JTV). Such variation could come from recurring congestion at the same period each day (day-to-day variability, or DTDV) or from non-recurring events, such as incidents. The factors not considered reliability-related will include the predictable variations associated with varying levels of demand (by time of day and day of the week) and the seasonal effects travellers are assumed to be aware of. Different methods to estimate reliability impacts have been developed for public transport and private vehicle trips on inter urban motorways and dual carriageways, urban roads and other roads. All the methods require a unit to measure travel time variability and this is generally the standard deviation of travel time (for private travel) or lateness (for public transport). Although Journey Time variation can be investigated in the base scenarios by making use of the available Traffic Master Data, with regard to the with-scheme scenarios and forecasting scenarios, from the strategic/macro-simulation model it will not be possible to calculate / derive the standard deviation because the assignment is ‘static’ and presents only values referred to the entire periods (AM, PM and Inter-Peak). Therefore, only a desk-based qualitative assessment will be undertaken. 4.2.3 REGENERATION WebTAG Unit A2.2 (January 2014) refers to regeneration in the context of improved connectivity to and within Regeneration Areas (RAs). RAs refer to a defined area whereby there is a need to boost economic activity through better links between jobs and workers as well as through increased tourism in areas where this is appropriate. Whilst there is an Enterprise Zone in Coventry (including Coventry University), there are no longer any designated Regeneration Areas following the disbandment of the previous Coventry and Nuneaton Regeneration Zone. In view of this a regeneration analysis will not be necessary. This will, however, be confirmed through discussion with DfT. Under the revised DfT guidance on wider economic impacts (see below for more details), Unit A2.2 will be discontinued. 4.2.4 WIDER IMPACTS The wider economic impacts for Phase 2 will comprise the following: Proximity-based productivity improvements – e.g. agglomeration improvements will take place if the new link road between the A46 and the University of Warwick effectively brings workers and jobs closer together. The data used for these calculations will be based on the generalised cost data in the traffic modelling work (for both the ‘Base’ and ‘Scheme’ options); Dependent Development-type impacts – e.g. if it can be shown that the new link road is needed to unlock employment and residential development, the land value gains can be calculated and reported and as additional economic benefit (the data required will include local land value data the number of hectares of land to be used for new housing); and A series of other wider economic impacts, including potential GVA and jobs, can be reported (and where possible, quantified) and included in the Business Case. Due to the scale of the development, the DfT’s Wider Impacts in Transport Appraisal (WITA) software will not be used. The assessment will report a Context-Specific Economic Narrative. The Economic Narrative will contain a description of the baseline economic characteristics in the study area; including particular economic issues identified using labour market and housing data. These figures are primarily related to the planned developments which need to be supported by the right infrastructure to maximise their potential benefits in terms of supporting economic growth and productivity in the local area. Principal growth sites include the following:
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 37 of 58 Stoneleigh Park - 3,000 jobs by 20304 University of Warwick Masterplan - 5,762 jobs by 20185 Whitley Business Park - 3,800 jobs by 20216A Coventry and Warwickshire Gateway – 10,000 jobs by 20213 Furthermore, there is significant provision of new housing planned in the local area, with 38,000 new dwellings proposed in the Coventry and Warwick District Local Plans up to 2031. In addition to this, the University of Warwick Masterplan also identifies the development of a minimum of 2,000 additional student bedrooms on the main campus. The Narrative will provide details as to how these issues will be improved with better transport connectivity and is in line with the forthcoming DfT guidance on wider economic impact guidance. The analysis will also focus on the main economic objectives in the area near to the Phase 2 project. These will have been set by the local authorities as well as the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) (in this case, Coventry and Warwickshire LEP). Some examples of the objectives are as follows: To mitigate and support the housing and employment proposals contained within the Local Plans for Warwick District, Rugby Borough, Coventry City and Solihull. To support the growth aspirations of the University of Warwick and key existing and proposed employment sites within the immediate area and wider A46 corridor. To ensure the Coventry and Warwickshire is well connected to the economic opportunities in Solihull, which will arise as a result of the opening of HS2 in 2026 and the UK Central proposals. To help reduce congestion in the A45 corridor which will enable further housing growth to come forward in Coventry, Warwickshire and Solihull. To improve the public transport network by providing a new station at the University of Warwick, improving the Tile Hill Stations ability to deal with demand and by paving the way for a future Very Light Rail scheme to connect key employment sites. To provide additional resilience to the Strategic Road Network (specifically the M6, M40 and M42) through the delivery of a new high quality east-west highway link. To complement the proposal by Highways England for the A46 between the M6 and M40 to become an “Expressway”. Certain objectives, particularly those relating to housing, will also match Government objectives and these will be described and set in the context of how Phase 2 will help unlock new housing development. In compliance with current WebTAG Unit A2.17, proximity-based Wider Impacts will be assessed. These impacts include the following: Agglomeration; Output change in imperfectly competitive markets; and Tax revenues arising from labour market impacts. Using the approach set out in Unit A2.1, agglomeration increases will occur when the reduced generalised costs associated with the scheme generate productivity benefits. These benefits arise because firms obtain higher productivity from being close to one another in large labour markets. The WebTAG guidance sets out a series of formulae and calculations which will be used when making this assessment. In addition to this, we will also set out the rationale for considering these impacts and why they are relevant to this scheme. As well as agglomeration, Wider Impacts also covers “output change in imperfectly competitive markets” and “tax revenues arising from labour market impacts”. The former refers to where a transport scheme increases the output of goods and services through the impact of a reduction in transport costs (i.e. reduction in
4 Warwick District Council, 2017 5 University of Warwick Masterplan, 2007 6 Coventry Local Plan Modelling Report, December 2015 7 Note that DfT are currently updating their Wider Economic Impacts guidance in WebTAG. We are fully conversant with the proposed changes having provided consultation feedback to DfT on the proposed changes. The new guidance is due to go ‘live’ later in 2017.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 38 of 58 Coventry City Council generalised costs due to improved journey times etc.). The overall economic impact will be a welfare gain as consumers’ willingness to pay for the increased output will exceed the cost of producing it. It is expected that the impact derived from the implementation of the proposed A46 Link Road scheme will be significant and will therefore be considered here. This impact will be assessed and quantified according to the WebTAG guidance. Tax revenue impacts refer to the taxation payments that the Government receives following the various labour market impacts attributable to transport schemes. This impact will be analysed and if deemed appropriate, quantified following the WebTAG guidance (as set out in detail in current WebTAG Unit A2.1).
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 39 of 58 5 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT
5.1 INTRODUCTION This section of the Appraisal Specification Report (ASR): Environment sets out the proposed methodology for the Environmental Impact Appraisal work to support this business case. Work will be completed in line with guidance presented within the Department for Transport’s (DfT) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3 Environmental Impact Appraisal guidance and Volume 11 of the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges. It is important to note that the environmental element of the wider benefits appraisal is not an environmental assessment. The aim of an environmental assessment is to ensure that the environmental implications of decisions on schemes are made available so that they can inform the design and decision making process. This appraisal is the process of developing environmental impact information for inclusion in a transport appraisal. This usually builds on the baseline data and impact assessment work carried out as part of an Environmental Impact Assessment. At the time of writing of this ASR, no planning application or DCO has been completed. As such, there are no planning application technical reports or Environmental Impact Assessment (whether statutory or non- statutory) to draw from. There is therefore a risk that the appraisal will identify potential significant environmental effects that are not yet identified and that measures will not be included in the scheme to mitigate these effects. Should this be the case, the project team will be notified. An Environmental Constraints Assessment was completed by WSP in April 2016 where a wider study area was used to potential environmental effects. The baseline information in this report has been used in the following sections to provide context of the current baseline. The Full Business Case will include a single road option that will have a significantly reduced site area. As such, including baseline information from the Constraints Assessment is considered to be a precautionary approach. In line with final business case methodology, the appraisal will include a quantitative assessment of Air Quality, Greenhouse Gases and Noise impacts and qualitative assessment of Historic Environment, Landscape, Townscape, Biodiversity and Water impacts. The detailed specification is set out in the following sections. The content of this ASR has been developed using elements of the Highways England Interim Advice Note 176/13 Guidance Note for the Production of an Appraisal Specification Report. On completion of each of the separate topic appraisals, a cumulative assessment will be completed that will appraise both overall cross topic environmental impact of the scheme on the environment and the impact of this scheme with others in the same location. This will be reported in the main business case document. 5.2 QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT 5.2.1 OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY The methodology to be used for appraising the environmental topics Landscape, Townscape, Historic Environment, Biodiversity and Water Environment is based on a qualitative 'environmental capital' style approach. The methodology for all topic areas follows the following generic steps: Step 1: Scoping and identification of study area; Step 2: Identifying key environmental resources and describing their features; Step 3: Appraise environmental capital; Step 4: Appraise the proposal’s impact; and Step 5: Determine the overall assessment score. More detail of each step is found within chapter 5 of TAG Unit A3 ‘Environmental Impact Appraisal’. 5.2.2 HISTORIC ENVIRONMENT 5.2.2.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA The Environmental Constraints report identifies two Grade II Listed Buildings within the wider study area: Cryfield Grange Farmhouse (Grade II); and South Hurst Farm Cottages 90 yards north east of South Hurst Farmhouse (Grade II).
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 40 of 58 Coventry City Council There are no further designated Cultural Heritage assets within the study area. However, within 2km there are the following: Four Scheduled Monuments: Roman settlement at Glasshouse Wood; Deserted medieval village at King’s Hill; Stoneleigh Bridge; and Moated site at Bishop Ullathorne School. Grade II* Stoneleigh Abbey is the only Registered Park and Garden within 2 km; and 106 listed buildings with one Grade I and three II*. There are also two Conservation Areas within 2 km of the study area: A review of publicly available historic environment data shows that there is high potential for archaeological artefacts to be present in the area, as a number of discoveries have been made within close proximity to the proposed scheme. These discoveries include ornaments of roman, Anglo-Saxon and prehistoric value. Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest historic roman and medieval settlements may be sited within the study area. 5.2.2.2 BRIEF EVALUATION OF TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS The main consideration for the Historic Environment appraisal is the impact of potential changes to road layout and traffic flows on listed buildings within 500m of the scheme and the potential for archaeological remains. 5.2.2.3 IDENTIFY LIKELY SCALE OF IMPACTS There may be small scale impact on the setting of existing heritage assets and potential significant impact on currently unknown archaeological remains. 5.2.2.4 ADDITIONAL DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH As no detailed baseline assessment has been completed to date, further data gathering will be required, including from local authority Sites and Monuments Record/Historic Environment Records (SMR/HERs). This will be combined with the freely available statutory information to provide a full baseline. 5.2.2.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY For the purposes of the appraisal, the study area is considered to be the proposed route, along with a buffer of up to 500m from the location of the works. Following the completion of the baseline assessment, impacts will be assessed in line with the WebTAG guidance. For Historic Environment, indicators are defined as: Scale it matters, Significance and Rarity. The Historic Environment Worksheet will be completed to provide a record of the appraisal. The determination of impact will be completed using table 8 of the WebTAG guidance and takes account of any design measures that have been put in place to minimise the impact of the scheme. Once the Impact Scores have been determined for each of the impacts and the worksheet completed, a text summary of the impacts will be provided for the main business case document, This approach is aligned to the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) methodology for determining the baseline, and in assessing a mitigated scheme. WebTAG methodology is used to produce the appraisal output in the form of completing the worksheet and providing a summary for the main document. 5.2.3 LANDSCAPE 5.2.3.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA There are no Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs), Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), National Nature Reserves (NNRs), National Parks, Special Area of Conservation (SACs) or Special Protection Area (SPAs) within the study area. However, the Site is within the designated Green Belt situated between Coventry and Kenilworth. The proposed scheme is located within National Character Area (NCA) 97 Arden. Arden comprises of farmland and former wood-pasture lying to the south and east of Birmingham, including part of the West Midlands conurbation. Traditionally regarded as the land lying between the River Tame and the River Avon in Warwickshire, the Arden landscape also extends into north Worcestershire to abut the Severn and Avon Vales. To the north and northeast, it drops down to the open landscape of the Mease/Sence Lowlands. The
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 41 of 58 eastern part of the NCA abuts and surrounds Coventry, with the fringes of Warwick and Stratford-upon-Avon to the south. This NCA has higher ground to the west, the Clent and Lickey Hills and to the east, the Nuneaton ridge. 5.2.3.2 BRIEF EVALUATION OF TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS There is potential for changes in the local landscape character. This relates to the alignment of the road and the potential for mature woodland to be removed. Changes in the location and flow of traffic may have a negative impact on the character and setting. 5.2.3.3 IDENTIFY LIKELY SCALE OF IMPACTS The scale of impacts has the potential to be locally significant only. 5.2.3.4 ADDITIONAL DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH As no detailed baseline assessment has been completed to date, further data gathering will be required, in line with Interim Advice Note 135/10: Landscape and Visual Effects Assessment. This will include the need for site survey. 5.2.3.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY It is proposed that a baseline assessment will be developed in line with a Simple Assessment for both Landscape and Visual impacts. This will include reviewing published information and a site visit to check whether any landscape character assessment is representative. An assessment of the visibility of the project within the landscape will be made, determined from mapping and by observation of the area of the project from public vantage points. Settlements and prominent viewpoints will be noted, together with an initial appreciation of their visual amenity and sensitivity to change. Following the completion of the baseline assessment, impacts will be assessed in line with the WebTAG guidance. For Landscape, indicators are defined as: Scale it matters, Rarity, Importance and Substitutability. The Landscape Worksheet will be completed to provide a record of the appraisal. The determination of impact will be completed using table 4 of the WebTAG guidance and takes account of any design measures that have been put in place to minimise the impact of the scheme. Once the Impact Scores have been determined for each of the impacts and the worksheet completed, a text summary of the impacts will be provided for the main business case document, This approach is aligned to DMRB methodology for determining the baseline. WebTAG methodology is used to produce the appraisal output in the form of completing the worksheet and providing a summary for the main document. 5.2.4 TOWNSCAPE 5.2.4.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA The proposed route is within a predominantly rural area. The following receptors are present: Residential properties within the study area: South Hurst Farm Cottage and Cryfield Grange; Residential receptors surrounding the study area: to the north Westwood Heath and Gibbet Hill, Brunton Green Village and to the west and Kenilworth to the South. The following activities have been identified: The users of the surrounding footpath and cycle network, which lead from the settlements into the surrounding countryside; and Vehicle travellers, local road users and traffic would be visually aware of vegetation removal. 5.2.4.2 BRIEF EVALUATION OF TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS There is potential for severance of existing routes and access. 5.2.4.3 IDENTIFY LIKELY SCALE OF IMPACTS The scale of impacts has the potential to be locally significant only. 5.2.4.4 ADDITIONAL DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH As no detailed baseline assessment has been completed to date, further data gathering will be required, in line with Interim Advice Note 135/10: Landscape and Visual Effects Assessment. This will include the need for site survey.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 42 of 58 Coventry City Council 5.2.4.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY The Townscape baseline assessment will be completed in combination with the Landscape assessment set out in the landscape section above. Following the completion of the baseline assessment, impacts will be assessed in line with the WebTAG guidance. For Townscape, indicators are defined as: Geographical scale, Rarity, Importance, Substitutability and Baseline Changes. The Townscape Worksheet will be completed to provide a record of the appraisal. The determination of impact will be completed using table 5 of the WebTAG guidance and takes account of any design measures that have been put in place to minimise the impact of the scheme. Once the Impact Scores have been determined for each of the impacts and the worksheet completed, a text summary of the impacts will be provided for the main business case document, This approach is aligned to DMRB methodology for determining the baseline. WebTAG methodology is used to produce the appraisal output in the form of completing the worksheet and providing a summary for the main document. 5.2.5 BIODIVERSITY 5.2.5.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA DESIGNATED SITES There are no Special Protection Areas, Special Areas of Conservation or Wetlands of International Importance (Ramsar sites) within 10 km of the study area There are no Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) within the study area boundary and Tile Hill Wood, located approximately 1.99 km north of the study area boundary, is the only SSSI within 2 km. There are no National Nature Reserves within 2 km of the study area boundary. There are no Local Nature Reserves (LNRs) within the study area boundary but fourteen are located within 2 km. There are three areas of woodland within the study are that are determined as Ancient and Semi-Ancient Woodland, namely; Broadwells Wood, Rough Knowles Wood, and Whitefield Coppice. SITE CONDITIONS Ecological site surveys were undertaken by WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff between 15 and 17 March 2016. The Site consists of areas of broadleaf and mixed woodland, scattered scrub, hedgerows, waterbodies, semi- improved grasslands and arable fields. There are areas of both disturbed and undisturbed semi-natural habitats that, together, create a mosaic of suitable habitat for a variety of species. Although some of these habitats are common in the local context, the habitats within the Site boundary are of potential value for protected and/or notable species including bats, nesting birds, reptiles, riparian mammals, amphibians and badgers. The Ecological Constraints report identifies the need to complete the following protected and notable species surveys: Invasive Species; Breeding Birds; Bats; Reptiles; Great Crested Newt; Badger; and Riparian Mammals. 5.2.5.2 BRIEF EVALUATION OF TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS Although the potential effect on statutory designated sites is predicted to be minimal due to proximity, the construction of road through a predominantly rural area will require habitat removal. There is potential for protected and notable species to be impacted. There may also be disturbance impacts during construction. The potential removal of mature woodland would need to be minimised.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 43 of 58 5.2.5.3 IDENTIFY LIKELY SCALE OF IMPACTS The impact on designated sites is likely to be on a local scale only. At this time it is unknown as to the scale of impacts on notable and protected species. 5.2.5.4 ADDITIONAL DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH By the time of submission in 2018, the initial site walkover by WSP (WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff then) will be out of date. An updated initial site survey, in the form of a Preliminary Ecological Assessment, should be completed on the proposed route alignment, along with relevant Protected and Notable Species surveys. 5.2.5.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY For the purposes of the appraisal, the study area is considered to be the site, along with a buffer of up to 2km from the location of the works. Following the completion of the baseline assessment, impacts will be assessed in line with the WebTAG guidance. For Biodiversity, appraisal of the environmental capital for each feature will be against a set of judgemental Indicators. This appraisal of the significance of the biodiversity resource is represented on the worksheet by the four indicators; Scale at which the feature matters, Importance, Trend and Substitution possibilities. The Biodiversity Worksheet will be completed to provide a record of the appraisal. The overall assessment scores are determined as set out in table 12 of the WebTAG guidance, and takes account of any mitigation that has been put in place to minimise the impact of the scheme. Once the Impact Scores have been determined for each of the impacts and the worksheet completed, a text summary of the impacts will be provided for the main business case document, This approach is aligned to DMRB methodology for determining the baseline. WebTAG methodology is used to produce the appraisal output in the form of completing the worksheet and providing a summary for the main document. 5.2.6 WATER ENVIRONMENT 5.2.6.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA The Study area is located within the Avon Urban Rivers and Lakes catchment of the Severn River Basin District. This is described by the Environment Agency as the follows: “This catchment includes the rivers Sowe, Sherbourne, Arrow and Alne and the conurbations of Coventry, Redditch and Alcester. It is largely urban, although arable farming is the main land use activity in the south. Water abstraction for industry and public drinking water supplies is significant within the catchment, including a number of potable groundwater abstractions. The catchment provides a variety of recreational activities including angling, sailing and water sports. Designated sites in the catchment include Sites of Special Scientific Interest at Bittell Reservoir in the Upper Arrow Valley and Brandon Marsh near Coventry.” At the end of the 2015 Water Framework Directive cycle, Good Ecological Status was not attained within this catchment. Of the 21 water bodies within the sub catchment, none reached the required ecological status (Good) and two failed the Chemical status requirement. The main reasons for not achieving good status were cited as: Agriculture and rural land management; Urban and transport; and Water Industry. The majority of the scheme lies within Flood Zone 1 which represents a low risk of flooding. This land is assessed as having a less than 1 in 1,000 annual probability of river or sea flooding. There are three areas within the Site that are determined as Flood Zone 2 and 3. The areas in question are: A small area at the roundabout junction between the A45 and Sir Henry Parkes Road, in the northern section of the Site. Along the unnamed river that runs to the east of the University of Warwick; and In the south, north of Cryfield Grange Farm. This area extends west toward Whitefield Coppice and south toward Crackley. A majority of the study area has a very low risk of surface water flooding. The main areas at risk are associated with the minor watercourses that run through the site.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 44 of 58 Coventry City Council The majority of the site is not affected by superficial deposit aquifers, with some minor areas classed as Secondary A. In terms of Bedrock designation, the whole site is classified as a Principal Aquifer. With regard to aquifer vulnerability, the Site is a combination of minor aquifer high and minor aquifer intermediate vulnerability. Part of the Site, mainly the south-eastern section of the Site falls within Zone 3 (total catchment) of a Groundwater Source Protection Zone. 5.2.6.2 BRIEF EVALUATION OF TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS The main consideration for the Water Environment appraisal is the impact of potential changes to areas of hardstanding as a consequence of road construction, and the corresponding the impact of changes in surface water runoff rates and volumes as well as potential groundwater recharge. This has the potential to impact both local hydrology and water quality within receiving watercourses. 5.2.6.3 IDENTIFY LIKELY SCALE OF IMPACTS There is the potential for significant changes to hydrology and hydrogeology that may exacerbate the non- compliance with the Water Framework Directive along with increase the potential for localised surface water or fluvial flooding. 5.2.6.4 ADDITIONAL DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH Baseline information for the Water Environment is generally freely available online. Design information on incorporated mitigation for managing water flows and quality changes will be required to understand any potential impact of the scheme on the Canley Brook. 5.2.6.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY For the purposes of the appraisal, the study area is considered to be the site, along with a buffer of up to 2km from the location of the works. Following the completion of the baseline assessment, impacts will be assessed in line with the WebTAG guidance. For Water Environment, impacts may be associated with Quality, Scale, Rarity and Substitutability. The Water Environment Worksheet will be completed to provide a record of the appraisal. The determination of impact will be completed using table 17 of the WebTAG guidance and takes account of any design measures that have been put in place to minimise the impact of the scheme. Once the Assessment Scores have been determined for each of the impacts and the worksheet completed, a text summary of the impacts will be provided for the main business case document. This approach is aligned to DMRB methodology for determining the baseline. WebTAG methodology is used to produce the appraisal output in the form of completing the worksheet and providing a summary for the main document. 5.3 QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT 5.3.1 AIR QUALITY 5.3.1.1 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA The Coventry City Wide Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) borders the study area to the north and the east. This is the only AQMA within 2 km of the study area. Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) modelling data available for 2015 does not identify any locations within the study area that is in exceedance of the 40µg/m3 limit. Although the area is predominantly rural, there are a number of farmsteads and residential properties within the Site. The Site also abuts Coventry where there is a mix of urban development including Warwick university campus, Westwood Business Park and residential areas. 5.3.1.2 BRIEF EVALUATION OF TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS On a qualitative basis, the construction of new roads have the potential to improve air quality where traffic flows reduce but have the potential to negative impact on new receptors where the road is constructed nearby. The extent of changes in air quality will only be identified through quantitative appraisal. 5.3.1.3 IDENTIFY LIKELY SCALE OF IMPACTS The impact on designated sites is likely to be on a local scale only.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 45 of 58 5.3.1.4 ADDITIONAL DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH Outputs of traffic modelling will be required, along with data available from the local authorities. The requirement for site monitoring should be determined once the available data from the Councils have been received and reviewed. 5.3.1.5 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY Appraisal of air quality impacts will be undertaken in accordance with TAG Unit A3 Section 3 Air Quality and in consultation with the environmental health department of Warwickshire County Council and Coventry City Council. Air quality impacts are likely where traffic conditions and road alignment are substantially altered. HA 207/07 scoping criteria will be applied. Affected roads are those that meet any of the following criteria: Road alignment will change by 5 m or more; or Daily traffic flows will change by 1,000 AADT or more*; or Heavy Duty Vehicle (HDV) flows will change by 200 AADT or more*; or Daily average speed will change by 10 km/hr or more*; or Peak hour speed will change by 20 km/hr or more*. Note *: Changes need to be considered in terms of 2-way traffic (not each direction separately). Other considerations for defining affected roads include presence of locations with relevant human exposure (especially within AQMA) and designated ecological sites within 200m that are sensitive to changes in air pollutants. The HA 207/07 screening method will not be used to estimate pollutant concentrations as this method is significantly out of date. Instead, dispersion modelling will be undertaken using ADMS-Roads with account for all residential, medical and educational premises within 200m of the affected road network. The outputs of the modelling will be used to derive the necessary statistics and valuation data for the scheme Appraisal Summary Table. Five scenarios will be modelled including: base year 2015 (for model verification), opening year (without and with scheme), and design year (without and with scheme). 5.3.2 GREENHOUSE GASES The assessment of Greenhouse Gases will be completed in line with the requirements of the Department for Transport’s (DfT) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3 Environmental Impact Appraisal guidance, including scoping as set out in the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Section 3, Part 1, Air Quality. Fuel and electricity consumption will be estimated using traffic data produced for the Air Quality assessment, along with the formula and parameters given in the TAG Data Book Tables. Energy consumption will then be converted into carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) and finally monetary values applied to the estimates of changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases emission will be quantified and monetised using TUBA (Transport User Benefits Appraisal). TUBA utilises the information output from the Transport Model (skim matrices) concerning vehicle classes, number of trips, journey times and distances as to calculate the Carbon Dioxide emissions. The calculation is based on the latest WebTAG Data Book and is quantified and expressed in tonnes. As for the assessment of the users, TUBA produces also the monetised values for the entire 60-year appraisal period, considering the values discounted to 2010, in 2010 prices. Five scenarios will be modelled including: base year 2015 (for model verification), opening year (without and with scheme), and design year (without and with scheme). 5.3.3 NOISE 5.3.4 EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA Current noise sources are likely to be minimal within the study area and include some noise from roads and agricultural land use. There are more sources adjacent to the site from the urban area of Coventry and the A46 and A429. Although the area is predominantly rural, there are a number of farmsteads and residential properties within the Site that would be directly affected by the proposals. The Site also abuts Coventry where there is a mix of urban development including Warwick university campus, Westwood Business Park and residential areas.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 46 of 58 Coventry City Council 5.3.4.1 BRIEF EVALUATION OF TOPIC-RELATED CONSTRAINTS Similar to Air Quality, on a qualitative basis, the construction of new roads have the potential to improve noise levels where traffic flows reduce but have the potential to negative impact on new receptors where the road is constructed nearby. The extent of changes in noise levels will only be identified through quantitative appraisal. 5.3.4.2 IDENTIFY LIKELY SCALE OF IMPACTS The impact on designated sites is likely to be on a local scale only. 5.3.4.3 ADDITIONAL DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SURVEY APPROACH Outputs of traffic modelling will be required, along with the calculation of Basic Noise Levels. The requirement for site monitoring should be determined once the consultation with the Councils has been completed as noise data may be available. 5.3.4.4 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY Appraisal of noise impacts will be undertaken in accordance with TAG Unit A3 Section 2 Noise and in consultation with the environmental health department of Warwickshire County Council and Coventry City Council. A scoping exercise will be undertaken that would constitute a desk-based exercise to identify the potential operational phase impacts associated with the road construction and the proposed study area for the noise assessment. It is proposed that a 3D noise model would be prepared to more accurately predict the noise levels at sensitive receptors within 100m of the above road links. The accuracy of the model will very much depend on the level of information made available including the existing and future topography. Where applicable, the results of any noise survey undertaken by the Councils will be used to calibrate the noise model. Should no baseline noise data be available, site surveys may be required. The existing and future (with and without scheme) noise levels would be predicted in accordance with CRTN. Noise calculations would be undertaken for all residential properties and other ‘sensitive receptors’ within the study area to determine the noise level difference between the ‘with’ and ‘without’ schemes. Where necessary, an appraisal will be undertaken for receptors in the immediate vicinity of affected routes that exist beyond the study area. For these affected routes, an appraisal will be undertaken by obtaining the BNL, as per the procedures in CRTN. The findings will be summarised in the form of the TAG Unit A3 Noise Assessment Workbook and a text summary will be provided to be included within the main business case document.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 47 of 58 6 SOCIAL AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT
6.1 INTRODUCTION In this chapter, descriptions of the approach to social and distributional impacts are provided. The approach follows the guidance set out by DfT in WebTAG, specifically Unit A4.1 covering Social Impacts and Unit A4.2 covering Distributional Impacts. The two sets of guidance are closely related with Unit A4.1 indicating the impacts that are typically assessed qualitatively and those that are assessed quantitatively. Unit A4.2 covers the distribution of these impacts and covers the three different steps that are required: Step 1: Screening Process; Step 2: Assessment; and Step 3: Appraisal of Impacts. 6.2 COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS The considerations regarding perceived costs, choices and ‘Rule of a Half’ reported in the ‘Business users’ section of this report, are valid also for ‘Commuters and Other users’ and they are applied in the assessment of the impact. The impact on commuting and other users will be undertaken with a quantitative and monetary assessment. The quantification will be based on vehicle Journey Times savings, which is derived from the implementation of the scheme (in the comparison between the with-scheme and without-scheme scenarios) and from the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC). VOCs will include fuel costs, for example. Journey Times savings will be directly derived from the modelling outputs (Demand and Skim Matrices and user charges) and will be monetised by utilising the Department for Transport’s TUBA (Transport User Benefits Appraisal) tool. TUBA utilises the O/D trips, distances and journey times for each user class to monetise the journey times and to quantify and monetise the VOC. Since the matrix inputs in TUBA refer to specific time periods (AM and PM peaks and Inter-Peak), factors are used (by TUBA) to convert from benefits per time slice to annual benefits. In TUBA there is a distinction between time periods and time slices. Time periods have standard definition supplied in the economic file: AM peak (weekday 07:00-10:00) PM peak (weekday 16:00-19:00) Inter-peak (weekday 10:00-16:00) Off-peak (weekday 19:00-07:00) Weekend The annualisation factors depend on how time periods are divided into time slices. The factors will be derived from the available observed data and will be used to convert time slices (AM, PM and Inter-Peak hourly flow) to time periods and then from time periods to annual benefits (including factors to consider seasonality). The factors will be also applied to the forecasting scenarios. As for the other impacts, the assessment will regard a 60-year appraisal period and the monetisation of the impacts for the entire period will refer to values discounted to 2010. The calculation is based on the latest WebTAG Data Book, which reports the most up-to-date Values of Time (VOT) and Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) for each user class. As reported in the chapter regarding the Transport Model, the user class ‘Car Non- Work’ will be split into ‘Commuters’ and ‘Other users’; therefore, the outputs from the model will consider them as two separate user classes. According to the proportions reported in the WebTAG Data Book, TUBA will split the vehicle class ‘LGV’ into ‘LGV Business’ and then ‘LGV personal’ into ‘LGV commuters’ and ‘LGV Other users’; the impacts related to these latter two user classes are going to be computed to the other vehicle classes associated to ‘Commuters’ and to ‘Other users’. 6.3 RELIABILITY IMPACT ON COMMUTING AND OTHER USERS As for the impact on reliability regarding the ‘business users’, the impact on commuters and other users will be considered in relation to what reported in the WebTAG Unit A1.3. Reliability refers to variation in journey times that individuals are unable to predict (journey time variability, or JTV). Such variation could come from
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 48 of 58 Coventry City Council recurring congestion at the same period each day (day-to-day variability, or DTDV) or from non-recurring events, such as incidents. Those factors not considered reliability-related will include the predictable variations associated with varying levels of demand (by time of day and day of the week) and the seasonal effects travellers are assumed to be aware of. Different methods to estimate reliability impacts have been developed for public transport and private vehicle trips on inter urban motorways and dual carriageways, urban roads and other roads. All the methods require a unit to measure travel time variability and this is generally the standard deviation of travel time (for private travel) or lateness (for public transport). Although Journey Time variation can be investigated in the base scenarios by making use of the available Traffic Master Data, with regard to the with-scheme scenarios and forecasting scenarios, from the strategic/macro-simulation model it will not be possible to calculate / derive the standard deviation because the assignment is a ‘static’ and presents only values referred to the entire periods (AM, PM and Inter-Peak). Therefore, only a desk-based qualitative assessment will be undertaken. 6.4 PHYSICAL ACTIVITY The appraisal of physical activity reflects the change in activity and hence the relative risk of all-cause mortality as a result of the proposed A46 Link Road (Phase 2). Where individuals are either walking or cycling more frequently or for longer distances, the resulting reduction in relative risk of all-cause mortality will result in fewer deaths over the appraisal period. The assessment is therefore related to the active modes and specifically considers: The change in the number of persons walking and cycling; The average time travelled by active mode by users per day (calculated from average distance and speed along the specific route or area); and The change in relative risk in the population of all-cause mortality (using linear interpolation or extrapolation based on duration of activity relative to the indicative values from the research). The information regarding the scheme design at the stage does not allow to identify specific considerations to assess the potential increase in the number of trips undertaken by cycling/walking. Therefore, as the proposed scheme is primarily highway related, albeit with appropriate provision for active mode users, it is proposed to undertake a qualitative assessment of the impacts on non-motorised users. The qualitative appraisal of physical activity and active travel impacts will be based on the following units in WebTAG: WebTAG Unit A4-1 – Social Impact Appraisals; WebTAG Unit A5-1 – Active Travel Mode Appraisal; and WebTAG Unit A1-3 – User and Provider Impact. Current demand for walking and cycling will be based on available existing data (traffic counts, Census data, etc.). As mentioned earlier in this document, the scheme is expected to divert traffic from the local network and consequently to relieve the carriageways from vehicles. This effect could potentially encourage active modes in two ways: 1) directly by incentivising people to undertake their journeys by cycling/walking because of the improved traffic conditions (especially under the safety perspective) and 2) by encouraging the authority to reconsider the carriageway layout of the existing relieved network as to accommodate cycle and pedestrian lanes / paths. 6.5 JOURNEY QUALITY Journey quality is a measure of the real and perceived physical and social environment experienced while travelling. This includes several factors and different aspects, which can be sub-divided into three groups, according to their nature: Traveller care: aspects such as cleanliness, level of facilities, information and the general transport environment; Travellers’ views: the view and pleasantness of the external surroundings in the duration of the journeys; and Traveller stress: frustration, fear of accidents and route uncertainty.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 49 of 58 A description for these categorises and their sub-categorises is provided in Table 6 as taken from WebTAG Unit A4.1. The implementation of the scheme is not expected to have a significant and quantifiable impact on Journey Quality. Therefore, it is proposed that a qualitative assessment will be undertaken. This will be discussed and agreed with the DfT at an early stage. In compliance with WebTAG, the factors reported in will be considered for qualitative assessment. A qualitative assessment is appropriate here given that the ‘journey quality’ attributes of the A46 scheme will be those associated with reduced traveller stress (due to less frustration associated with delays on the existing road network, reduced levels of ‘fear’ due to a lower risk of accidents and greater route certainty as the new road scheme will offer a better ‘level of service’ compared to the existing network).
Table 6 - Classification and Examples of Journey Quality Factors Factor Sub-Factor Description Internal and external cleanliness and graffiti; the condition Cleanliness of the seats; tables brightness of internal lighting. Types of seats, handles luggage racks and storage, toilets, buffet / restaurant facilities and level of staff customer Facilities service, presence of service stations and facilities for motorists. Traveller Care Audibility, frequency and usefulness of on-board PA announcements; the provision of general travel information Information and customer magazines; and the condition of advertising posters. Extent of overcrowding; ventilation; temperature; noise; Environment overall condition and smoothness of ride, motor vehicle condition and river capability. Depth of cuttings or natural / artificial barriers, the presence Travellers’ Views - of which may block views of the surrounding countryside or townscape. Road layout and geometry; condition of the road network; Frustration ability to make god progress along a route. Presence of other vehicles, inadequate sight distances, possibility of pedestrians stepping into the road, presence of central reservation or safety barriers (or not); inadequate Fear of potential accidents lighting; the width of the roads / carriageway / lane; Traveller Stress presence of roadworks; the absence of lane markings, cats eyes and hard shoulders. Timetables and network maps \9e/g/ available in public places, or on the Internet), provision of in-vehicle route Route uncertainty signs. (NB actual time savings through better information should be assessed as a TEE benefit). Source: WebTAG Unit A4.1 The information regarding the scheme design at the stage does not allow to identify specific considerations regarding the assessment of journey quality. However, in general, as reported in the paragraph regarding physical activity, active modes are expected to benefit from the implementation of the scheme. Therefore, even assuming unvaried the number of trips and distance travelled by active modes, people cycling / walking may see their journey quality improved for the considerations reported in the paragraph concerning physical activity. In particular, their trip will be undertaken in a relieved network with less interaction with vehicles (less fear of potential accidents) and in an improved environment.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 50 of 58 Coventry City Council 6.6 ACCIDENTS The impact will be assessed quantitatively using the DfT software COBALT (COst and Benefit to Accidents - Light Touch). Cobalt predicts the collisions for the forecasting scenarios according to characteristics of the links and junctions, the annual average daily flow (AADT) in the links and arms (observed or calculated for the base scenarios and estimated for the forecasting years) and the local collision data. The programme compares the results from the existing layout with the ones obtained with the implementation of the scheme (with-scheme scenarios). In the with-scheme scenarios, the prediction is based on the characteristics of the new elements of the network and the estimated flows (AADT). In order to undertake the analysis, collision data regarding the network included within the study area will be collected with regard to the last five-year period. The AADT data will be either extracted from the available traffic surveys or derived using local factors (as recommended by DMRB). With regard to the forecasting modelled scenarios, the AADT will be calculated using local factors applied to the traffic model AM and PM peak and Inter-Peak flows. 6.7 OTHER SOCIAL IMPACTS The remaining social impacts which have to be considered in the Economic Assessment are: Security; Access to Services; Affordability; Severance; and Option and Non-Use Values. The information regarding the scheme design at the stage does not allow to specify a methodology in relation to the scheme details for any of the sub-impact mentioned above. A qualitative assessment of the above impacts will be undertaken, using a desk-based approach. Reference will be made to relevant WebTAG guidance as appropriate. Among the sub-impacts in the list, the ones which are expected to be affected by the scheme are ‘Access to Services’ and ‘Severance’. Given the characteristics of the scheme and the objectives of this Business Case, ‘severance’ in particular should be considered and especially in relation to impact on active modes such as cycling and walking. Specifically, the route and layout of the scheme will be analysed in relation to the location of the existing and future developments and in relation to the existing local network and cycling/pedestrian paths. Continuity and the presence of potential barriers in the Active Modes network will be assessed. With regard to ‘Access to Services’, the existing and the planned services which can be potentially involved with the implementation of the scheme will be considered in the analysis. In particular, the routes will be investigated in order to identify which services could potentially utilise the new scheme and which ones could be affected by the implementation of the new link because of the change of the traffic condition. In this sense, the traffic improvement consequent to the implementation of the scheme should guarantee an improvement in the Public Transport services and potentially in accessibility. 6.8 DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS The Distributional Impacts of the proposed scheme will be assessed in accordance with WebTAG Unit A4-2 – Distributional Impacts Appraisal (January 2014). The distributional impacts (DIs) will cover the variance of scheme impacts across different social groups in the study area. The analysis of DIs is mandatory in the appraisal process and forms a key part of the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). Both beneficial and adverse Dis will be considered as well as the identification of social groups likely to be affected. The DI analyst in our appraisal team will work closely with the technical analysts responsible for the appraisal of the identified indicators. The approach to the assessment will follow the process set out in WebTAG Unit A4-2, and will include the following: Step 1 - Screening: Identification of likely impacts for each indicator. Step 2 - Assessment:
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 51 of 58 Step 2a - Confirmation of the area impacted by the transport intervention (impact area). Step 2b - Identification of social groups in the impact area. Step 2c - Identification of amenities in the impact area. Step 3 - Appraisal of Impact: Step 3a - Core analysis of the impacts. Step 3b - Full appraisal of Distributional Impacts and input into the AST. For screening, we will use the DfT’s screening proforma, for example.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 52 of 58 Coventry City Council 7 ACTIVE MODES IMPACT ASSESSMENT
7.1 BACKGROUND In the current situation, there are two National Cycle Network (NCN) Routes in the vicinity of the Phase 2 study area. These routes include: Route 52 is mainly traffic – free through the study area, with some small sections of on-road route around the University of Warwick. Route 523 is a traffic-free route which connects to Route 52 to the south and heads north-west to Burton Green. This route is known locally as the ‘Kenilworth Greenway’. Over the last five years there have been a number of serious and slightly severe pedestrian and cyclist accidents around the Westwood Heath and University of Warwick area. The majority of these accidents are caused by drivers failing to make comprehensive observations when approaching junctions or passing through areas with high levels of pedestrian and / or cycle traffic. In some instances, this is due to the area having poor sight lines due to the curvature of the road approaching the junction. There is no evidence of significant equestrian use of the local road network and the parapets on the Stoneleigh Road Bridge over the A46 do not have bridleway provision. The British Horse Society web site indicates that there is a 6km linear equestrian riding route along the disused railway line, ‘Kenilworth Greenway’. Provision for non-motorised users will be a consideration in the development of the proposed scheme design and will be included business case assessment. The impacts on non-motorised users will be discussed with the DfT. 7.2 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY As the proposed Phase 2 A46 Link Road is primarily highway related, albeit with appropriate provision for active mode users, active modes will not be explicitly modelled, therefore a proportionate approach has been undertaken to assess their impact. It is proposed that the business case will include a qualitative assessment of the impacts on non-motorised users using the standard seven-point scale in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). This will include the impact on pedestrians, cyclists, equestrians and other users. Current demand for walking and cycling will be based on available existing data. This will be supplemented by bespoke surveys if required based, on discussions with the DfT. 7.2.1 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON ACTIVE MODES - METHODOLOGY A qualitative assessment based on best judgement will be made using the 7-point scale of impacts on active modes using the matrix below as taken from WebTAG Unit A5.5 - Highway Appraisal. The number of travellers affected will be defined as low, moderate or high; changes in journey times will be measured as small, moderate or large. The resultant impact can then be identified using the matrix in Table 7.
Table 7 - WebTAG Qualitative 7 Point Scale of Impacts of Active Modes Journey Time Changes Travellers Affected Low Moderate High Low Neutral Neutral Slight Moderate Neutral Slight Moderate High Slight Moderate Large
Source: TAG Unit A5.5, Highway Appraisal These results will be recorded in the ‘other’ column in the Transport Economic Efficient (TEE) table, and if significant, the results will also be highlighted in the ‘Summary of key impacts’ column in the AST.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 53 of 58 7.2.2 OTHER IMPACTS ON ACTIVE MODES - METHODOLOGY In addition to the economic impact of the Phase 2 A46 Link Road, qualitative appraisal of the social impact on active modes as a result of the scheme will be assessed. This includes the impact on Physical activity, Journey quality and accidents as discussed and agreed with the DfT at an early stage. The qualitative appraisal of active travel impacts will take account of relevant WebTAG guidance, including: WebTAG A4.1 Social Impact Appraisals (November 2014).
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 54 of 58 Coventry City Council 8 8 PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
8.1 INTRODUCTION This chapter sets out the details regarding the Public Accounts and, in particular, the scheme costs. This section will consider the Appraisal Summary Table section regarding Public Accounts, which presents the details regarding the ‘Cost to Broad Transport Budget’ and the ‘Indirect Tax Revenue’. Scheme costs will be estimated and developed in accordance with WebTAG Unit A1.2 – Scheme Costs (November 2014). As part of the option development and sifting process scheme costs were estimated, including allowance for Optimism Bias and taking account of risks identified through a risk workshop with key stakeholders. This approach forms a sound basis for the refinement of costs as part of the development of the Outline Business Case for Phase 2. 8.2 COST TO BROAD TRANSPORT BUDGET The calculation of the Broad Transport Budget will be carried out utilising TUBA. The assessment will take into account the comparison between Do-Something and Do-Minimum scenarios in the 60-year appraisal by discounting the values to 2010 prices. The calculation will take into consideration the disaggregated costs and costs profile defined for the scheme and the values of GDP. As to undertake the assessment in TUBA, for each scenario the costs will be disaggregated (when applicable) in: Preparation; Construction; Land; Supervision; Operating; Maintenance; Grant / subsidy (payment to Private sector); and Developer Contribution (payment from Private sector). With regard to the costs profile, for each type of cost, the total will be profiled over the 60-year appraisal period as to allow TUBA to undertake the calculation. For each scenario, also delay costs will be considered (if applicable) with their respective profile. Distinction between Local Government funding and central funding will be also presented in order to calculate the respective net Impact over the appraisal period. 8.2.1 LEVEL OF DETAIL TO INFORM THE COST ESTIMATE The proposed scheme is currently at design stage. The design detail will be progressed further stage during the course of the development of the Outline Business Case and these drawings will inform the cost estimated for the proposed Phase 2 A46 Link Road scheme. 8.2.2 BASE COSTS The estimate of base costs will be compiled using scheme drawings. The rates will be taken from Spon’s Civil Engineering and Highway Works Price Book. The estimate will be based upon the most up to date price base at the time of preparing the estimates. All costs will be presented in market prices within the economic assessment. Base costs will include: Construction Works Estimates, which include costs associated construction works such as construction cost, contract estimate contingency, contractors preliminaries, and traffic management costs; Other Cost Heads, including land purchase costs, statutory undertakers costs, Optimism Bias and design and supervision fees; and Contract Costs. 8.2.3 TREATMENT OF RISK In order to adjust the base cost for the risks associated with the cost of the scheme, a Quantified Cost Risk Assessment (QCRA) will be undertaken, based on the DfT prescribed four step process which includes:
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 55 of 58 Risk identification; Assessing the impacts of risk to determine possible outcomes; Estimating the likelihood of the possible outcomes occurring; and Deriving the probability distribution and expected value of the costs of the scheme. An initial assessment of risk was undertaken as part of the option development process. This will be developed further as part of the business case work and include the maintenance of a formal risk register which is a live document reviewed on a regular basis. Risk Workshops will be undertaken to help inform the Risk Register. The identified risks will be run through a Monte Carlo Assessment tool in advance of the Business Case submission. The results from the QCRA will be used to make an allowance of risk to the overall costs. 8.2.4 MAINTENANCE AND OPERATING COSTS Maintenance and operating costs for the 60 year appraisal period will be estimated in consultation with Warwickshire County Council. Examples of such maintenance and operating costs are provided in Table 8 as taken from DfT’s WebTAG unit A1.2.
Table 8 - Examples of Operating Costs Components Element of Base Cost Roads Railways Public Transport Operating Costs Routine and non-traffic Train and station Buses: Enforcement of related maintenance operating costs (e.g. bus lane; maintenance of costs (e.g. drainage, payroll, fuel and traction stops, fuel, payroll. street lighting, fencing, and track access and grass cutting, repainting station lease4 charges). lines, etc.) Train leasing charges which normally includes light and heavy maintenance of rolling stock.
Source - WebTAG Unit A1.2 8.2.5 DEVELOPMENT OF OUTTURN COSTS The scheme base costs will be converted to outturn costs by profiling them according to the year they will be incurred. The calculation will consider also the use of tender price indices to convert cost estimates at the assumed price base to a cost in the year of spend, taking into consideration inflation. It is the outturn costs which form the basis of the funding bid to the DfT. 8.2.5.1 Cost Profile The risk adjusted costs will be profiled by forecast year of spend. Once cost profiles are established, the base costs will be adjusted for future inflation using factors derived from the Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) database, in order the establish the outturn costs. 8.2.5.2 Operating and Maintenance Costs Operating and maintenance costs will be forecast for the full 60 year appraisal period, including the impact of increasing usage and cost increases in excess of general inflation. Forecasts of these costs will be provided for the full appraisal period for each forecast year. 8.2.5.3 Contributions The outturn costs will be profiled by funding source, which are likely to include: WMCA funding; and Local contributions.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 56 of 58 Coventry City Council 8.2.6 TREATMENT OF OPTIMISM BIAS For the purpose of the economic assessment, optimism bias will be applied to all future costs, at the rates set out in WebTAG Unit A1.2 (November 2014) for the relevant stage of the project. 8.3 INDIRECT TAX REVENUES Indirect Tax Revenues are calculated using TUBA, which will derive the calculation from the results regarding ‘business users and transport providers’ and ‘commuting and other users’ and in relation with the vehicle classes. The Indirect Tax Revenues primarily derive from the vehicle operating costs and especially from the fuel consumption.
PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD WSP Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 September 2017 Coventry City Council Page 57 of 58 9 DEVELOPMENT OF THE BUSINESS CASE
Other considerations required to take the schemes forward to the business case stage will include the following: Public Acceptability – Stakeholder Engagement Plan and Public Consultation; Practical Feasibility – Compulsory Purchase Orders, Planning Applications; Programme for each scheme; Risk Register for schemes (Key, Engineering and Other); Quantified Risk Register (QRA); and Procurement Routes.
WSP PHASE 2 A46 LINK ROAD September 2017 Project No.: 70001991-041 | Our Ref No.: 70001991-041 Page 58 of 58 Coventry City Council Appendix A
APPRAISAL SPECIFICATION SUMMARY TABLE (ASST) Appraisal Specification Summary Table
Impacts Sub-impacts Estimated Impact in OAR Level of uncertainty in Proposed proportionate Reference to evidence Type of Assessment Output OAR appraisal methodology and rationale in support (Quantitative/ Qualitative/ of proposed methodology Monetary/ Distributional)
Economy Business users & transport Assumed Moderately / Low VISUM Transport Model; WebTAG Units A1-1 to A1- Quantitative and Monetary providers Largely Beneficial TUBA v 1.9.7 3
Reliability impact on Business Assumed Slightly / Low Desk-based Assessment - WebTAG Unit A1-3 - Traffic Qualitative users Moderately Beneficial Traffic Master Data and PT master data will be used to VISUM model assess the reliability for the base without-scheme scenario; while the model will be used to assess the other scenarios. It is not possible to calculate deviation standard for future and with-scheme scenarios.
Regeneration N/A N/A N/A WebTAG Units A2-2 N/A
Wider Impacts Assumed Moderately Medium Wider Impacts estimate WebTAG Units A2-1 Beneficial Environmental Noise
Air Quality
Greenhouse gases Assumed Neutral High TUBA v 1.9.7 WebTAG Units A3 section Quantitative and Monetary 4 Landscape
Townscape
Heritage of Historic resources
Biodiversity
Water Environment
Social Commuting and Other users Assumed Moderately / Low TUBA v 1.9.7 WebTAG Units A1-1 to A1- Quantitative and Monetary Largely Beneficial 3
Reliability impact on Assumed Slightly / Low Desk-based Assessment - WebTAG Unit A1-3 - Traffic Qualitative Commuting and Other users Moderately Beneficial Traffic Master Data and PT master data will be used to VISUM model assess the reliability for the base without-scheme scenario; while the model will be used to assess the other scenarios. It is not possible to calculate deviation standard for future and with-scheme scenarios.
Physical activity Assumed Slightly Beneficial Low Desk based assessment WebTAG Units A4-1and A5- Qualitative based on detailed 1 knowledge of the scheme, existing active modes utilisation, potential scheme impacts
Journey quality Assumed Slightly Beneficial Low Desk based assessment WebTAG Units A4-1and A5- Qualitative based on detailed 1 knowledge of the scheme, existing active modes utilisation, potential scheme impacts
Accidents Assumed Slightly / Medium COBALT WebTAG Units A4-1 Quantitative and Monetary Moderately Beneficial Security Assumed Neutral / Slightly Low Desk based assessment WebTAG Units A4-1 Qualitative Beneficial based on detailed knowledge of the scheme, local area demographics and potential scheme impacts.
Access to services Assumed Moderately Low Desk based assessment WebTAG Units A4-1 Qualitative Beneficial based on detailed knowledge of the scheme, local area demographics and potential scheme impacts.
Affordability Assumed Neutral Medium Desk based assessment WebTAG Units A4-1 Qualitative based on detailed knowledge of the scheme, local area demographics and potential scheme impacts.
Severance Assumed Neutral / Slightly High Desk based assessment WebTAG Units A4-1 Qualitative Adverse based on detailed knowledge of the scheme, local area demographics and potential scheme impacts.
Option values Assumed Neutral Medium Desk based assessment WebTAG Units A4-1 Qualitative based on detailed knowledge of the scheme, local area demographics and potential scheme impacts.
Public Accounts Cost to Broad Transport Medium TUBA to calculate PVC of WebTAG Units A1-1 and Monetary Budget scheme. Input scheme A1-2 Indirect Tax Revenues Medium TUBAcosts and output. spend profile. WebTAG Units A1-1 Monetary Appendix B
A46 CASM IMPROVEMENTS TECHNICAL NOTE MAY 2017 A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Job Number Date Author Checked Authorised
70001991 2nd May 2017 Amina Guecioueur Christine Palmer Simon Statham Sai Verlkumar
INTRODUCTION
This Technical Note summarises the traffic modelling undertaken for the A46 Phase 1, 2 and 3 improvements within the Coventry Area Strategic Model (CASM). This note provides an overview of all the changes made and then focuses on the performance within the Phase 1 area of influence. CASM consists of the following models: Æ CASM Transport Demand Model (TDM); Æ CASM Highway Assignment Model (HAM); and Æ CASM Public Transport Model (PTAM). The full suite of models will be used in the assessment of the A46 Stoneleigh Junction scheme. This note firstly summarises the work undertaken to improve the performance in and around the Stoneleigh area within the AM, Inter and PM peak 2013 CASM HAM. Following this the performance statistics of the 2013 A46 CASM HAM are presented for traffic flows and journey times. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
2013 BASE YEAR
The 2013 CASM HAM was developed for the Coventry Local Plan and Highways England Junction 2-4 Smart Motorways project, the model covers the area shown in Figure 1. The Stoneleigh Area of Influence (AOI) was identified by using the 2034 CASM Model used for the M6 Junction 2-4 improvement. Figure 2 presents the Stoneleigh Phase 1 AOI.
Figure 1: Coventry Area Strategic Model Area A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 2: A46 Phase 1 Area of Influence Following comments from the Department of Transport (DfT) on the Traffic Modelling methodology, a number of improvements were incorporated into the CASM model which included: Æ Network Improvements; Æ Matrix Improvements; and Æ Additional Data Collection. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
NETWORK IMPROVEMENTS
In order to capture and accurately model the behaviour of traffic, it was necessary to further refine and improve the network in relation to Phase 1 AOI defined in Figure 2. Figure 3 illustrates the coverage of the model that underwent network updates to improve performance in the study area.
Figure 3: A46 CASM Network Updates These network updates consisted of: Æ Extending the area of simulation; Æ Capacity checks; Æ Speed limit checks; Æ Junction coding; Æ Lane turns; and Æ Signal timing updates. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 4 shows the simulated nodes in the original CASM network around the Phase 1 area and Figure 5 shows that the number and extent of simulated nodes has increased significantly in the area.
Figure 4: Original CASM Simulated Nodes A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 5: A46 CASM Simulated Nodes
A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
In addition to the above, the zoning system within the Highway Assignment Model was further refined to reflect the necessary detail required within the study area. Figure 6 highlights the zones which were disaggregated from the original CASM model.
Figure 6: CASM Zones Disaggregated from Original Model A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 7 shows the disaggregated zone system, all zones where possible were split along Census Output Area boundaries. There were a total of 18 new zones generated throughout the zone disaggregation process.
Figure 7: A46 CASM Zone System The prior trip matrices were then disaggregated into the new zone system. This involved generating a relationship between the zonal boundaries and Output Area (OA) boundaries to derive proportions to split the existing trips into the new zone system. For instance, if Zone X had 100 trips prior to the disaggregation process and was then split in to Zone X and Zone XX, by analysing the number dwellings in conjunction with census data, it was possible to determine that with the new zone system that Zone X and Zone XX contained 30% and 70% of total dwellings respectively. Therefore, the new zone system would reflect 30 and 70 trips for Zone X and Zone XX respectively. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
MATRIX IMPROVEMENTS
Following comments from the DfT on the CASM Model in autumn 2016 it was noted that it would be beneficial to split the Car Non Work matrix into Car Commuting and Car Other trip purposes. As part of the CASM Model development process the 2011 Census Journey to Work data was used to enhance the trip detail within the local area. This data was used to split the Car Non Work matrix into Car Commuting and Car Other trip purposes, assuming that all journey to work are car commuting trip purpose and all other trips purpose were Car Other.
ADDITIONAL OBSERVED DATA
In addition to the original CASM journey time routes, as part of the re-calibration process, seven additional journey time routes were incorporated into the model, as illustrated in Figure 14. The routes above were analysed through the use of TrafficMaster data. The data in nature is classified as so called ‘Big Data’ and therefore underwent a sifting process. This consisted of: Æ Identifying relevant Integrated Transport Network (ITN) links corresponding with the journey time routes identified in Figure 14; Æ Processing links that are associated with the modelled peak periods AM (08:00 – 09:00), IP (11:00 – 14:00) and PM (17:00 – 18:00); Æ Analysing data from September (2012), October (2012), April (2013), May (2013) and June (2013) for neutral dates i.e. excluding school and other public holidays; and Æ Processing journey time data for cars only. Since the 2013 CASM HAM was originally finalised, a number of additional counts have been processed and incorporated into the updated highway model. The additional counts that have been incorporated are shown below in Figure 8. The additional counts have been colour-coded, as detailed below: Æ Red: Counts commissioned by WSP at the A46/Stoneleigh Road junction and the adjacent Dalehouse Lane/Stoneleigh Road mini-roundabout; Æ Pink: Counts sent to WSP by WCC, which were used in the KSWA Paramics model; Æ Green: Counts incorporated as part of a developer test using CASM; Æ Blue: Counts within the vicinity of the Stoneleigh Junction (incorporated as part of a developer test using CASM); and Æ Purple: Counts within Solihull that were incorporated. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 8: Additional Counts Incorporated within the A46 CASM HAM A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 9 shows all the counts in the local area.
Figure 9: CASM Highway Counts Around A46 A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
RESULTS
Table 1 and Table 2 show the final performance of the Phase 1 CASM HAM during the AM Peak compared to the Original CASM HAM performance. Table 1: AM Peak Calibration Results, Phase 1 AOI
STONELEIGH AOI Number of GEH (under 5) or GEH (under 7.5) or GEH (under 10) or Counts Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Original CASM 157 64% 69% 78% Phase 1 CASM 157 82% 88% 96%
Table 2: AM Peak Calibration Results, Whole Model
WHOLE MODEL Number of GEH (under 5) or GEH (under 7.5) or GEH (under 10) Counts Flow Criteria Flow Criteria or Flow Criteria Original CASM 536 77% 84% 90% Phase 1 CASM 536 82% 91% 97%
The results show that the CASM HAM performance has improved significantly within the Phase 1 AOI, with a 16% increase in the modelled flow meeting GEH of 5 or under or flow criteria and 96% of links now meeting a GEH of under 10 or flow criteria, up from 78%. The Phase 1 CASM HAM as a whole has also improved with 82% of links meeting a GEH of under 5 or flow criteria. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 10 shows the AM Peak Phase 1 CASM GEH performance within the AOI; the green bars represent GEH values of 5 or less, the orange bars represent GEH values of 10 or less and the red bars represent GEH values greater than 10.
Figure 10: AM Peak Phase 1 CASM GEH Values Within the AOI A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Table 3 and Table 4 show the final performance of the Stoneleigh Phase 1 CASM HAM during the Inter Peak compared to the Original CASM HAM performance.
Table 3: Inter Peak Calibration Results, Phase 1 AOI
STONELEIGH AOI Number of GEH (under 5) or GEH (under 7.5) or GEH (under 10) or Counts Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Original CASM 131 79% 79% 87% Phase 1 CASM 131 96% 98% 98%
Table 4: Inter Peak Calibration Results, Whole Model
WHOLE MODEL Number of GEH (under 5) or GEH (under 7.5) or GEH (under 10) or Counts Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Original CASM 496 86% 92% 96% Phase 1 CASM 496 86% 98% 99%
The results show that the CASM HAM performance has improved within the Stoneleigh Phase 1 AOI, with a 17% increase in the modelled flow meeting GEH of 5 or under or flow criteria and 98% of links now meeting a GEH of under 10 or flow criteria, up from 87%. Figure 12 shows the PM Peak Phase 1 CASM GEH performance within the AOI; the green bars represent GEH values of 5 or less, the orange bars represent GEH values of 10 or less and the red bars represent GEH values greater than 10. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 11: Inter Peak Phase 1 CASM GEH Values Within the AOI A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Table 5 and Table 6 show the final performance of the Phase 1 CASM HAM during the PM Peak compared to the Original CASM HAM performance.
Table 5: PM Peak Calibration Results, Phase 1 AOI
STONELEIGH AOI Number of GEH (under 5) or GEH (under 7.5) or GEH (under 10) or Counts Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Original CASM 157 64% 70% 82% Phase 1 CASM 157 80% 89% 96%
Table 6: PM Peak Calibration Results, Whole Model
WHOLE MODEL Number of GEH (under 5) or GEH (under 7.5) or GEH (under 10) or Counts Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Flow Criteria Original CASM 536 75% 84% 91% Phase 1 CASM 536 82% 90% 96%
The results show that the CASM HAM performance has improved within the Phase 1 AOI, with a 16% increase in the modelled flow meeting GEH of 5 or under or flow criteria and 96% of links now meeting a GEH of under 10 or flow criteria, up from 82%. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 12 shows the PM Peak Phase 1 CASM GEH performance within the AOI; the green bars represent GEH values of 5 or less, the orange bars represent GEH values of 10 or less and the red bars represent GEH values greater than 10.
Figure 12: PM Peak Phase 1 CASM GEH Values Within the AOI A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
Figure 13 illustrates the journey time routes which were assessed within the CASM HAM, across the study area and in Coventry.
Area Wide View Coventry View
Figure 13: CASM HAM Journey Time Routes Study Area View Overall performance for journey time routes for the Original CASM HAM and the Phase 1 CASM HAM are summarised in Table 7, these present the journey time which meet TAG criteria (within +/-15% of observed values). Table 7: CASM HAM Journey Time Performance
AM PEAK PM PEAK Original CASM 79% 85% Phase 1 CASM 79% 88%
Table 7 shows that in the Phase 1 CASM HAM, the journey time accuracy has been maintained on those in the AM Peak and has improved in the PM peak by 3%. A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
The journey time routes identified to be close to the Phase 1 are route numbers 5, 16, 15 and 16. In addition to the Original CASM journey time routes, as part of the re-calibration process, seven additional journey time routes were incorporated into the model, as illustrated in Figure 14.
Figure 14: Additional Journey Time Routes The performance of these additional journey time routes in combination with the aforementioned four sites- adjacent CASM journey times is shown in Table 7, these present the journey time which meet TAG criteria (within +/-15% of observed values). Table 7: Phase 1 CASM HAM Journey Time Performance
AM PEAK INTER PEAK PM PEAK A46 CASM 80% 95% 80%
WEAKNESS One weakness of the A46 CASM model revolves around the Gibbet Hill Rd/ Stoneleigh Road junction. Between 2013 and 2016 the Gibbet Hill Road / Stoneleigh Road junction has been upgraded from a signalised junction to a give way roundabout. The A46 CASM model represents the junction as a signalised junction and journey time data in the area was taken from 2013 when the junction was signalised. However the count data used in the A46 CASM model in the area was collected in 2016, when A46 CASM Improvements TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF MODELLING WORK UNDERTAKEN
the junction was a roundabout. Therefore there is a slight inconsistency between the observed data we are using to replicate conditions. One solution which has been incorporated into the A46 CASM Model to try to balance this discrepancy is that the Stoneleigh Road approach to Kenilworth Road has a lane flare. As a result, the performance of journey time routes through and near this junction and the performance of the counts at this junction should be considered within the context of this change of junction operation.
MODEL VERSIONS
Base Year
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PM Appendix C
CASM AND HS2 TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED HS2 METHODOLOGY CASM and HS2 TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED HS2 METHODOLOGY
Job Number Date Author Checked Authorised
th 70001991 19 September xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx 2017
INTRODUCTION
This Technical Note sets out the proposed methodology for incorporating High Speed Two (HS2) into Coventry Area Strategic Model (CASM). To date all forecasting within CASM has not included HS2 as at the time of the development, Autumn 2015, the scheme was not fully committed. On 23rd February 2017 the HS2 scheme obtained Royal Assent and is now a fully committed scheme which should be included in all forecast years for CASM. This includes all forecasts associated with the assessment of the Stoneleigh Junction proposals Full Business Case and A46 Phase 2 and 3 schemes for Outline Business Case which will be reviewed by the DfT. This note will summarise the work undertaken by the PRISM team on the HS2 scheme and will propose how we can incorporate HS2 into CASM in a consistent way to ensure both PRISM and CASM have a consistent basis for generating HS2 forecasts in the West Midlands area.
PRISM AND HS2
Mott Mc Donald have produced reports on HS2 which have been shared with WSP: Æ HS2 into PRISM, November 2015 (Appendix A)
This work was commissioned by the Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership Æ Birmingham International Transport Hub, November 2016, (Appendix B)
This work followed on from the HS2 into PRISM work it was commissioned by Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council in conjunction with the Urban Growth Company. HS2 into PRSIM This report addresses the following questions: Æ Where in the West Midlands with the HS2 passengers come from? Æ How will they get to the HS2 stations? The HS2 Ltd forecasts provided by the Planet model do not answer these questions, and the current PRISM model is not designed to forecast long distance demand. Therefore to answer the questions, a hybrid approach merging the strengths of each model has been developed. The PRISM team have therefore developed the PRISM-Location Engine for New Stations (PRISM-LENS) model which takes the total number of passengers at each of the two HS2 stations within the West Midlands from the Planet model. PRISM provides local data which is then used to forecast where those passengers travel to. CASM and HS2 TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED HS2 METHODOLOGY
In terms of the mode of travel Planet forecasts provide a modal split that assumes only committed developments and HS2 are present. As the land uses and change in accessibility to the new HS2 stations changes then the LENS models will be able to adjust the forecast mode accordingly. More details of the HS2 into PRISM work and the PRISM-LENS model can be found in the HS2 into PRISM report within Appendix A. Birmingham International Transport Hub This Technical Note sets out the assessment of PRISM which was undertaken with the development proposals at the time within the Birmingham International Transport Hub when HS2 is in operation. The development proposals were the latest at the time the work was undertaken during 2016, the report was issued in September 2016. More details of the Birmingham International Transport Hub can be found in the report within Appendix B.
PROPOSED METHODOLOGY
Given that both the PRISM and CASM models cover the HS2 Interchange Station it is fundamental that both models remain as consistent with each other regarding the assumptions that are being used for HS2 and travel locally to and from the new station. Given that the PRISM team has developed a methodology to locally distribute the new trips it is proposed that all HS2 trips to be used in CASM will be provided by the PRISM team. WSP have reviewed the work undertaken by the PRISM team and agree that the adopted methodology is robust and acceptable to be used in CASM. WSP have already been provided with HS2 matrices for 2026, 2031 and 2041 on 23rd May 2017 which were derived from PRISM 4.6 (NTEM 6.2). This version of PRISM was constrained to NTEM 6.2 growth and the land use assumptions in UK Central were also based on NTEM, These model runs are core- scenarios, and included only those developments and schemes that were committed at the time of the PRISM 4.5/6 model development. These schemes are documented in the PRISM 4.5 forecasting report1. As and when PRISM 5 is developed and there are new HS2 matrices constrained to NTEM 7 this will be adopted but these are likely to be ready until January 2018 at the earliest. Therefore for the purpose of the A46 Stoneleigh Junction Full Business Case the latest available HS2 matrices from PRISM will be used alongside the land use assumptions and highway and public transport interventions which meet the DfT TAG criteria at the time. WSP will discuss the approach of incorporating HS2 into CASM with the DfT ahead of the Stoneleigh Junction Full Business Case being submitted to ensure they are in agreement within the proposed approach. CASM and HS2 TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED HS2 METHODOLOGY APPENDIX A HS2 into PRISM Report HS2 into PRISM
Summary Report
November 2015
Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership
HS2 into PRISM
343314 1 A P:\Birmingham\Prism\343314 - Modelling HS2 in PRISM\15 Summary Note\04 report\HS2 into 3rd November 2015 SummaryPRISM_summaryNote_2015_1111_withUpdateAppendix.do Report cx HS2 into PRISM Summary Report November 2015
Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership
Birmingham & Solihull LEP Executive, Ground Floor, Baskerville House, Centenary Square, Broad Street, Birmingham, B1 2ND
Mott MacDonald, 35 New hall Street, Birmingham, B3 3PU, United Kingdom T +44 (0)121 234 1500 F +44 (0)121 200 3295 W w ww.mottmac.com
HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Issue and revision record
Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description 1 3/11/15 xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxx Summary Report
Information class: Standard
This document is issued for the party w hich commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission used for any other purpose. w hich is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties.
This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be show n to other parties w ithout consent from us and from the party w hich commissioned it.
HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Contents
Chapter Title Page
Executive Summary i
1 Introduction 1
2 Methodology 2 2.1 PRISM-LENS overview ______2
3 Model Inputs for PRISM forecasts 4 3.1 Highway Network Changes ______4 3.1.1 HS2 Interchange/M42 Junction 6 changes ______4 3.1.2 HS2 Curzon Street/Birmingham City Centre changes ______5 3.2 Public Transport Network Changes ______6 3.2.1 HS2 Phase 1 service patterns ______8 3.2.2 HS2 Phase 2 service patterns ______9 3.2.3 HS2 People mover ______10 3.2.4 Digbeth Metro Extension ______10 3.2.5 Hagley Sprint Route______11 3.3 Demographic Inputs______11 3.4 PRISM-LENS inputs ______16 3.4.1 Demand Forecasts ______16 3.4.2 Time-Period Conversion ______18 3.4.3 Station Catchments ______18
4 Model Results 19 4.1 Accessibility to HS2 Stations ______19 4.2 Access/Egress trips to HS2 services ______20 4.3 Highway Network Impact ______21 4.4 Conclusion ______22
Appendices 23 Appendix A. Technical Model Overview ______24 A.1 PRISM Forecasting ______24 A.2 PRISM-LENS - Technical______25 A.2.1 Station Catchments ______27 Appendix B. Demand Model Development ______29 Appendix C. Public Transport Service Inputs ______43 C.1 HS2 Phase 1 Service patterns ______43 C.2 HS2 Phase2 Service patterns ______46 C.3 Digbeth Metro Extension ______70 C.4 Hagley Sprint Route______71 Appendix D. Station Usage ______74
343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
D.1 UK Central Car-Access ______74 D.1.1 2031 ______74 D.1.2 2041 ______75 D.2 Birmingham Curzon Street Car-Access ______77 D.2.1 2031 ______77 D.2.2 2041 ______78 D.3 UK Central PT-Access ______80 D.3.1 2031 ______80 D.3.2 2041 ______81 D.4 Birmingham Curzon Street PT-Access ______83 D.4.1 2031 ______83 D.4.2 2041 ______84 D.5 UK Central PT-Access (with charts) ______86 D.5.1 2031 ______86 D.5.2 2041 ______87 D.6 Birmingham Curzon Street PT-Access ______89 D.6.1 2031 ______89 D.6.2 2041 ______90 Appendix E. Accessibility Plots ______92 E.1 Accessibility to HS2 Stations (Car and PT) ______92 E.1.1 Birmingham Interchange Station ______92 E.1.2 Birmingham Curzon Street Station ______93 Appendix F. Highway Congestion ______94 F.1 2031-without HS2 ______94 F.2 2031-with HS2______95 F.3 2041-with HS2______97 Appendix G. Flow Difference Plots ______99 G.1 2031 With HS2 –vs - Reference ______99 G.2 2041 With HS2 –vs - 2031 With HS2______101
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Executive Summary
The proposed High-Speed rail link (HS2) between London and the West Midlands is forecast to have a dramatic impact on long distance rail demand. The key questions that this work is focussed on are “Where in the West Midlands will these passengers come from?” and “How will they get to the HS2 stations?”
The HS2 Ltd forecasts provided by the Planet model do not answer these questions, and the current PRISM1 model, while providing sophisticated disaggregate forecasts of West Midlands travel, is not designed to forecast long- distance demand. To answer the questions, a hybrid approach merging the strengths of each model has been developed.
The resulting PRISM-Location Engine for New Stations (PRISM-LENS) model takes the total number of passengers at each of the two HS2 stations within the West Midlands from the Planet model. PRISM provides local data which is then used to forecast where those passengers travel to.
Using the strengths of PRISM, the model can take account of relative attractiveness of different areas in terms of population, numbers of workers and numbers of jobs, and relative perceived journey times to those locations from the HS2 stations. Combining the detail of PRISM with the model sensitivities calibrated from a long-distance model, PRISM-LENS is able to forecast where HS2 passenger will be travelling to.
In order to answer which access mode people will use, a further step has been built into the model. The Planet forecasts provide a modal split for a future year scenario that assumes only committed developments and HS2. This is then used directly in an equivalent reference (business as usual) scenario for PRISM. In subsequent model applications, the LENS model will be able to analyse the change in accessibility of the two HS2 stations compared to the reference scenario and then will adjust the forecast mode share accordingly. By combining the strengths of each model, PRISM-LENS will be able to forecast how HS2 passengers will travel to the stations in various future year scenarios.
1 Policy Responsive Integrated Strategic Model: see PRISM reports v4.1 – dated 15.05.2015 available from www.prism-wm.com
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It has been shown that in a business-as-usual scenario, the additional demand created will result in increased pressure on the highway networks: in particular the motorway network but also the Birmingham city centre ring road. From the Planet forecasts we see that most passengers at the Interchange station are currently forecast to access the station using car rather than public transport, whereas Curzon Street is forecast to attract a higher proportion of public transport access passengers. This is logically consistent with what is shown in the PRISM accessibility isochrones plots for each of the stations.
Following the development of the PRISM-LENS, it is now possible to understand the detailed strategic impact of various proposed schemes to improve accessibility to the new stations, such as the HS2 connectivity package. The results so far indicate that in order to encourage more people to use public transport (in particular around the Interchange station), schemes that improve north/south connectivity around the UKC hub are likely to have the greatest potential.
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1 Introduction
When considering the impact of HS2 in the West Midlands there are two main components from a transport perspective. The travel demand of people using HS2 stations rather than conventional rail; and The increased travel demand due to new developments that the stations allow.
PRISM is well placed to model new developments; it is not well-placed to forecast long-distance demand outside of the West Midlands. There have been previous attempts to model HS2 in PRISM which consisted of simple matrix manipulation; copying distributions from existing strategic stations and controlling the total boarding/alighting at new HS2 stations to published figures. This approach is not ideal for various reasons: It is cumbersome and requires manual adjustment; It assumes location distribution as per existing stations and therefore does not take into account the local detail possible within PRISM. It does not allow for testing the impact of alternative access scenarios on location choice.
In order to create a more robust representation of the impacts of HS2 in the West Midlands, Mott MacDonald was commissioned to develop a new methodology and produce a reference case ‘with HS2’ scenario for 2031.
Following the initial commissioning, Mott MacDonald was further commissioned to: produce a ‘with HS2’ scenario for 2041; and extend the methodology to allow mode-choice between car-access and PT-access to the stations. – The scope did not extend to testing it on different scenarios.
This document explains the methodology undertaken to: model the impact of HS2 patronage in the West Midlands; model the corresponding Highway and Public Transport network changes associated with HS2; and outline the key results of the modelled 2031 and 2041 scenarios.
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2 Methodology
In order for the Policy Responsive Integrated Strategy Model (PRISM) to be able to forecast the impact of long-distance patronage, a new demand module had to be built. This PRISM-Location choice Engine for New Stations (PRISM-LENS) module can be thought of as a method for combining the different strengths of the long-distance HS2 Ltd Planet model and the local West Midlands PRISM model.
Figure 2.1: The PRISM-LENS process
2.1 PRISM-LENS overview
The new demand module (PRISM-LENS) is focussed on the tasks of representing the passengers who will board (or alight) services at each of the two HS2 stations in the West Midlands, ultimately trying to answer the questions “Where in the West Midlands will these passengers come from?” and “How will they get to the HS2 stations?”
The current forecasting process described in Appendix A is not suitable for forecasting HS2 long-distance travel because the PRISM demand model only generates trips for residents of the West Midlands using relationships based on observed behaviour in the West Midlands metropolitan area. However HS2 will be used by a much wider catchment.
In order to answer the key questions above, PRISM-LENS combines the strengths of the Planet and PRISM models. Figure 2.2 below shows how PRISM data and Planet data is used at each point in the decision tree. On one side inputs from HS2 Ltd’s Planet model are used to provide the total number of passengers accessing (or egressing) a station, and provide a reference modal share between PT and Car access. PRISM provides accessibility information and also
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demographic information (such as population, number of jobs and number of workers per zone), which is then used to forecast where people will travel to and from.
Figure 2.2: The PRISM-LENS model
The modal share between car-access and PT-access is allowed to change by running the model for a reference and test scenario; in the reference scenario the modal split is assumed to be equal to the output of the Planet forecasts. These forecasts come from a model designed to forecast long-distance trips based on a scenario that is ‘business as usual’ except for the addition of the HS2 services – and hence corresponding to a PRISM reference scenario. In the test scenario, use of travel costs is made to assess the change in relative attractiveness of car-access and PT-access; based on this change the modal split is correspondingly altered.
A fuller description (including the parameters used and differences for business, commute and leisure travel) is included in Appendix A and Appendix B. However, from this overview, it should be possible to see how PRISM-LENS can predict where HS2 passengers will be travelling to within the West Midlands and choice of mode they will make.
It should be noted that the total number of HS2 passengers at each station is a fixed input, as it was beyond the scope of this work to consider how that could be altered.
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3 Model Inputs for PRISM forecasts
This section details the inputs that have been used to produce the PRISM forecasts for 2031 and 2041 with-HS2 scenarios. Initially, PRISM forecasts were only commissioned for 2031, as this allowed for a representation of HS2 Phase 1. However, it was later decided to extend the work to forecast 2041 in order to include HS2 Phase 2, and to include the additional development site changes detailed in section 3.3.
The reference forecasts, as described in the PRISM Forecasting Report2, have been used as a starting point for highway and public transport network changes, and for demographic assumptions. Rather than repeating detail here, this section focusses on the scenario- specific changes for this model run.
3.1 Highway Network Changes
3.1.1 HS2 Interchange/M42 Junction 6 changes
Solihull MBC was able to provide some information on proposed junction improvements around the HS2 Interchange/M42 junction 6 area. This has been used to update the Forecast year network as shown in Figure 3.1 below.
Connectivity to the HS2 station and the development site from the southern access road has been coded without allowing the site to become a through route as it is assumed some form of traffic management would discourage drivers from travelling through the site. Signal timings for the M42 Junction 6 and the new junction directly south of it have been taken from a detailed operational (Vissim) model provided by JMP consultants.
Figure 3.1: M42 Junction 6 coding changes
2 PRISM Forecasting Report v4.1 – dated 15.05.2015 available from www.prism-wm.com 4 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
The changes to numbers of lanes available (in the AM) can be seen in the next few plots – this information for new links (lanes/speeds etc.) has been taken directly from the Vissim model as it was the only source available.
Figure 3.2: M42 Junction 6 Area, reference forecast network
Figure 3.3: M42 Junction 6 Area, with junction improvements
3.1.2 HS2 Curzon Street/Birmingham City Centre changes
Using information from the Curzon Street master plan certain network changes have been made in Birmingham City Centre. These changes are shown diagrammatically below.
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Figure 3.4: Birmingham City Centre, reference forecast network
Figure 3.5: Birmingham City Centre, with scenario specific changes
3.2 Public Transport Network Changes
This ‘With HS2’ scenario assumed the following Public Transport service changes: HS2 services (Phase 1 and Phase 2); HS2 people mover (providing access between Birmingham International and Interchange stations); Digbeth Metro Extension; and Hagley Road Sprint.
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Timetables for HS2 services have been created using the best information derived from the HS2 Planet Modelling Assumptions report 3 and from the HS2 modelling team.
Due to the large volume of tables representing services, tables with information on individual service times can be found in Appendix C. Services are presented on diagrammatic figures below followed by a brief description.
The HS2 service patterns are shown first (Phase 1 has been modelled in 2031, and Phase 2 has been modelled in 2041) followed by more local network changes that are in both modelled years.
3 PFM v4.3 Report dow nloaded from http://assets.hs2.org.uk/sites/default/files/inserts/S%26A%2020_PFM%20assumptions %20report.pdf 7 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015
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3.2.1 HS2 Phase 1 service patterns
Figure 3.6: HS2 Phase 1 service patterns
Source: Figure 6-1: HS2 Service Pattern used in PFMv4.3 – Phase One, HS2 PFMv4.3 Assumptions Report.
The most relevant routes for this model are those in red, namely the 3 services an hour between London Euston and Birmingham Curzon Street. The other services are included in order for the model to represent the shift of through-travel away from West Coast services that stop at Birmingham.
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3.2.2 HS2 Phase 2 service patterns
Figure 3.7: HS2 Phase 2 service patterns
Source: Figure 6-2: HS2 Service Pattern used in PFMv4.3 – Phase Tw o, HS2 PFMv4.3 Assumptions Report.
In Phase 2 it is noted that there are now more services stopping at the two West Midlands stations providing more connectivity than before.
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3.2.3 HS2 People mover
Figure 3.8: People mover route
The proposed people mover will provide a public connection from the HS2 Interchange station to the NEC and Birmingham International station and then onto the Airport terminal. Centro have provided network coding relating to this service. The maximum peak capacity is at least 2100 passengers per hour in each direction, running at intervals of three minutes with journey times of approximately six minutes from the Interchange station to the Airport.
3.2.4 Digbeth Metro Extension
Figure 3.9: Digbeth Metro Extension
The Digbeth Metro extension would provide connectivity to the HS2 Curzon St station across the city centre from Centenary Square to Adderley St.
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3.2.5 Hagley Sprint Route
Figure 3.10: Hagley Sprint Route (Outbound)
This route would provide greater accessibility from Halesowen to Birmingham City Centre, and hence to HS2 stations.
3.3 Demographic Inputs
In order for PRISM to forecast the changes as a result of new development around the HS2 stations, detailed demographic data for each of the two modelled years is required.
KPMG have provided employment and population numbers for those areas within Birmingham which are planned to grow alongside HS2, and Solihull MBC have provided the corresponding figures for growth around the UK Central hub (the development area which includes Birmingham Interchange station).
These figures provide the additional growth (in terms of population and employment) in the area as a result of HS2-related developments. As is usual in transport models, the forecast demographics have been constrained to figures forecast by the National Trip End Model (NTEM). It is normal to constrain the forecast demographic totals at the district level; however, given the national significance of the scheme, it was agreed with KPMG and the client group to constrain the demographics at the national level and then re-allocate some of the growth from the rest of the UK to the local areas. This allowed the population and employment totals for the district to grow relative to reference forecasts.
For the purpose of controlling the demographic totals to those from NTEM, it was agreed to use a 55/45 split, with 55% of new growth coming from the Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership (GBSLEP) area and 45% coming from the Rest of the UK. In that way, the total employment and population within the GBSLEP area is able to grow as a result of the development.
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This approach has been applied to the 2031 and 2041 reference demographic data. The 2031 reference demographics (controlled to NTEM district totals) and the process for deriving them is detailed in the PRISM Forecasting Report4 and the PRISM Data Summary Report5. The 2041 reference demographics have been calculated by factoring up the 2031 demographics using the NTEM district growth factors for 2031 to 2041.
The figures below show the location of the sites where additional developments have been allocated.
Figure 3.11: Development zones
4 PRISM Forecasting Report v4.1 – dated 15.05.2015 available from www.prism-wm.com
5 PRISM Data Summary Report v4.1 – dated 15.05.2015 available from www.prism-wm.com 12
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Figure 3.12: Development zones (Birmingham City Centre)
Figure 3.13: Development zones (Birmingham Airport)
Below are a series of tables which show the district and development zones totals for the 2031 and 2041 with and without HS2 growth.
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Table 3.1: 2031 Reference Demographics – district totals
District Population Employment Service-jobs 6 Retail-jobs Birmingham 1,072,127 519,386 450,636 43,568 Coventry 363,901 162,786 139,747 15,112 Dudley 330,009 124,896 99,094 12,488 Sandw ell 355,826 145,054 104,099 12,877 Solihull 221,171 122,387 103,913 12,603 Walsall 274,233 123,574 96,893 14,737 Wolverhampton 260,262 123,622 97,699 11,163 Intermediate 1,778,679 891,297 718,361 85,716 Rest of WM Region 1,285,853 564,755 450,145 61,096 External 61,450,201 29,813,166 25,387,219 3,113,397 UK (Total) 67,392,262 32,590,923 27,647,806 3,382,757
Table 3.2: 2031 with HS2 data
District Population Employment Service-jobs Retail-jobs Birmingham 1,076,851 537,279 468,143 48,283 Coventry 363,873 162,682 139,642 15,099 Dudley 329,984 124,816 99,020 12,477 Sandw ell 355,799 144,961 104,021 12,866 Solihull 223,564 133,302 114,609 12,095 Walsall 274,212 123,495 96,820 14,724 Wolverhampton 260,242 123,543 97,626 11,153 Intermediate 1,776,814 883,964 711,530 84,503 Rest of WM Region 1,285,377 562,733 448,259 60,826 External 61,445,544 29,794,148 25,368,137 3,110,730 UK (Total) 67,392,262 32,590,923 27,647,806 3,382,757
Table 3.3: 2041 Reference Data
District 2041 Population 2041 Employment Service Retail Birmingham 1,103,024 565,415 490,572 47,429 Coventry 384,171 174,020 149,391 16,155 Dudley 338,262 128,533 101,980 12,852 Sandw ell 375,772 158,098 113,460 14,035 Solihull 228,187 129,942 110,328 13,381 Walsall 281,302 133,747 104,869 15,950 Wolverhampton 268,156 131,529 103,948 11,877 Intermediate 1,842,495 919,306 740,936 88,410 Rest of WM Region 1,331,987 582,503 464,291 63,016 External 64,184,075 30,988,329 26,387,922 3,236,120 UK (Total) 70,337,431 33,911,421 28,767,696 3,519,224
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Table 3.4: 2041 with HS2 data
District Population Employment Service Retail Birmingham 1,107,247 583,368 508,028 52,419 Coventry 384,136 173,880 149,249 16,141 Dudley 338,231 128,429 101,883 12,840 Sandw ell 375,738 157,970 113,352 14,023 Solihull 232,957 149,488 129,592 12,839 Walsall 281,276 133,639 104,770 15,936 Wolverhampton 268,131 131,423 103,849 11,867 Intermediate 1,840,133 909,966 732,243 87,151 Rest of WM Region 1,331,386 579,920 461,884 62,735 External 64,178,196 30,963,338 26,362,846 3,233,274 UK (Total) 70,337,431 33,911,421 28,767,696 3,519,224
Table 3.5: Development Zones 2031 HS2 Growth (change from reference)
Prism Zone Population Employment Service Retail 1201 32 13,284 13,284 0 1207 1,228 2,675 2,675 0 1503 488 6,774 6,774 0 1504 1,895 2,033 2,033 0 1505 1,201 -564 -564 0 1506 925 -245 -245 0 1507 225 -162 -162 -162 1510 0 1,223 1,223 0 1522 0 1,505 1,505 1,505 1523 1,957 4,927 4,927 4,927 5065 445 2,000 2,000 0 5066 445 2,000 2,000 0 5162 445 2,000 2,000 0 5212 1,280 5,400 5,400 0 5213 445 2,000 2,000 0 Total 11,011 44,850 44,850 6,270
Table 3.6: Development Zones 2041 HS2 Growth (change from reference)
Prism Zone Population Employment Service Retail 1201 32 17,592 17,592 0 1207 1,228 2,675 2,675 0 1503 488 6,774 6,774 0 1504 1,895 2,033 2,033 0 1505 1,201 -300 -300 0 1506 925 -535 -535 0 1507 559 259 259 259 1510 0 1,223 1,223 0 1522 0 1,505 1,505 1,505 1523 1,957 4,927 4,927 4,927 5065 575 2,500 2,500 0
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Prism Zone Population Employment Service Retail 5066 575 2,500 2,500 0 5162 575 2,500 2,500 0 5212 3,312 12,800 12,800 0 5213 575 2,500 2,500 0 Total 13,896 58,953 58,953 6,691
3.4 PRISM-LENS inputs
The new demand bolt-on as described in section 2.1 requires exogenous inputs to run. It is not intended to forecast the patronage at the stations and so instead uses inputs from HS2 Ltd’s Planet Model to provide those numbers.
3.4.1 Demand Forecasts
The main inputs that are required for each model run are the numbers of boarders/alighters at each of the two stations who have an ultimate origin/destination within the PRISM fully modelled area (see Figure 3.14 below). By restricting the total number of boarders/alighters in this way, we remove those passengers who would change trains off a high-speed service and change onto conventional rail for their onward journey outside of the modelled area.
The tables below show the figures used which have been provided by HS2 Ltd from version 4.27 of the Planet model. Planet provides numbers for Phase 1 forecasts in 2026 and 2036, and Phase 2 forecasts in 2026 and 2036 – from these numbers we have interpolated a Phase 1 2031 number as the simple average, and extrapolated a Phase 2 2041 number from the Phase 2 2026 and 2036 numbers. The PT access modal-share is calculated by the Planet Station choice model and used as a reference modal share from which test scenarios may alter. Although the reference modal share is identical per purpose, PRISM will allow that to change for each purpose in test scenarios, reflecting the differences in perceived costs by business, commute and other travellers.
7 The request w as for the most recent approved model results. Although a new er version of Planet had been run, this w as the version that HS2 Ltd believed w as the most definitive. 16 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure 3.14: PRISM modelled area
Table 3.7: Access trips to Birmingham Interchange in 2031 and 2041 (trips/weekday)
2031 2041 Purpose Demand PT Share Demand PT Share Business 5,956 28.2% 9,218 26.9% Commute 1,617 28.2% 2,487 26.9% Other 4,020 28.2% 6,922 26.9%
Total 11,593 28.2% 18,627 26.9%
Table 3.8: Egress trips from Birmingham Interchange in 2031 and 2041 (trips/weekday)
2031 2041 Purpose Demand PT Share Demand PT Share Business 5,459 33.2% 8,248 31.8% Commute 1,608 33.2% 2,487 31.8% Other 3,648 33.2% 6,382 31.8%
Total 10,715 33.2% 17,117 31.8%
Table 3.9: Access trips to Birmingham Curzon Street in 2031 and 2041 (trips/weekday)
2031 2041
Purpose Demand PT Share Demand PT Share Business 6,810 81.4% 11,912 80.8% Commute 2,044 81.4% 5,934 80.8% Other 4,135 81.4% 9,961 80.8%
Total 12,989 81.4% 27,807 80.8%
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Table 3.10: Egress trips from Birmingham Curzon Street in 2031 and 2041 (trips/weekday)
2031 2041 Purpose Demand PT Share Demand PT Share Business 6,617 84.0% 12,036 83.5% Commute 1,964 84.0% 5,808 83.5% Other 3,956 84.0% 10,094 83.5%
Total 12,537 84.0% 27,938 83.5%
3.4.2 Time-Period Conversion
The demand from Planet is split into PRISM time periods using factors from the corresponding PRISM home-based demand modules (which were derived from the PRISM Household Interview). As other travel includes a large component of leisure travel, it is reasonable to assume that such travel will be outside the AM peak.
Table 3.11: PRISM time period factors
AM IP PM OP Purpose 07:00–09:30 09:30-15:30 15:30-19:00 19:00-07:00 Business Outbound 67.1% 13.6% 3.3% 16.0% Return 0.6% 17.4% 68.0% 14.0% Commute Outbound 53.4% 27.8% 6.4% 12.5% Return 0.6% 21.0% 62.9% 15.5% Other Outbound 9.5% 47.2% 25.8% 17.5% Return 2.3% 36.6% 25.7% 35.3%
3.4.3 Station Catchments
As discussed in Appendix A.2.1, in order to remove illogical movements, station catchments for PT and highway users have been calculated. Briefly, the station the model calculates station catchments based on the access times to the HS2 stations from each PRISM zone by car and PT minimising total journey time.
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4 Model Results
In this section, we present the results from the ‘with HS2’ model runs. Plots from both model years and all time periods are available in the Appendix.
Firstly the accessibility of each station is compared, followed by analysis of the travel to/from each station and the corresponding impact on the transport networks. A conclusion is then made summarising the key findings and potential areas for future application work.
We believe these findings represent reasonable judgement under a duty of reasonable skill and care. However, because of model instability found in other PRISM applications due to lack of observed signal timing data they should be treated with some caution at this stage. The PRISM Management Group is aware of these limitations and they are being addressed. A revised version of the model will be available in due course (PRISM v 4.5).
4.1 Accessibility to HS2 Stations
Figure 4.1 to Figure 4.4 show the forecast accessibility to each of the HS2 stations by car and public transport. These isochrones have been calculated based on the 2031 IP networks.
Figure 4.1: Birmingham Interchange-PT Figure 4.2: Curzon Street -PT
Figure 4.3: Birmingham Interchange - Car Figure 4.4: Curzon Street - Car
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As can be seen, the Highway networks have a much greater accessibility than the PT networks. In particular, PT access is focussed along radial routes from Birmingham City Centre, and so Interchange PT access is focused along an east-west corridor and comparatively poor north-south connectivity. Highway access for both is much greater due to the proximity of the motorway network via the M42 for Interchange and A38(M) for Curzon Street.
4.2 Access/Egress trips to HS2 services
In the model runs, the total number of passengers across the day has been kept in line with Planet forecasts. However PRISM is able to forecast where these passengers are likely to travel to for the 3 purposes Commute, Business and Other. Illustrative outputs from 2031 are presented below.
Figure 4.5: AM Birmingham Interchange patronage-Car Figure 4.6: AM Curzon Street patronage-Car
Figure 4.7: AM Birmingham Interchange patronage-PT Figure 4.8: AM Curzon Street patronage-PT
From these plots it can be clearly seen the distributions of Car-access and PT-access are very different. Curzon Street is able to attract PT passengers from a variety of locations along key radial routes, whereas Interchange is only really an option for Coventry.
Although not clearly visible on these diagrams, a large proportion of passengers from Interchange station are travelling a relatively short distance. This is shown more clearly in the Figure 4.9. The demographic inputs described in section 3.3, show that zones around
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the UKC hub are forecast to receive a large increase in population and employment, and so this is not surprising.
Figure 4.9: AM Birmingham Interchange (Zonal charts) Figure 4.10: AM Curzon Street patronage (Zonal charts)
As can be seen in Figure 4.10, the Metro extension (see 3.2.4) from Centenary Square to Curzon Street station is proving to be a key corridor for accessing the HS2 station.
4.3 Highway Network Impact
In terms of highway impact, it can be seen from the figure below that the M6 will be put under additional strain by demand to both stations, with the Interchange station attracting a large amount of traffic on the M42 and A45. The flow difference plots back up this interpretation, showing a large increase in M6 traffic in particular.
Figure 4.11: Flow Difference, 2031 AM reference vs with HS2
It should be remembered that there are many differences between the two 2031 models; the change in demand due to additional developments (which is then partially constrained to NTEM – see 3.3), the changes in the highway and PT networks as well as the additional HS2 passengers all contribute to changes in the network flows. As such it is difficult to isolate the exact cause for the differences. Additionally the links on the M42 that have been significantly changed due to
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junction re-design (see 3.1.1) have been removed from the plot as it is difficult to meaningfully compare them. However even with those limitations it can be clearly seen that a large increase in demand is forecast for the M6, due to both the HS2 stations and also the HS2 related developments.
Figure 4.12: 2031 AM – Reference Flow over Capacity Figure 4.13: 2031 AM – ‘with HS2’ Flow over Capacity
The plots above show the ratio of flow over capacity – as can be seen conditions on the M6 between junction 6 and 7 are forecast to get worse, along with the area around Birmingham City Centre and the UKC hub.
4.4 Conclusion
These model runs were designed to test some initial transport schemes around the HS2 stations, and to give an indication of the impact of the additional HS2 demand on the West Midlands transport networks.
It has been shown that in a business-as-usual scenario the additional demand created will result in increased pressure on the highway networks, in particular the motorway network. This work did not include testing the mode-choice element of the LENS model with a real scenario, but some sensitivity testing has been included in Appendix B. Based our interpretation of the model, in order to encourage more people to use public transport (in particular around the Interchange station) schemes that improve north/south connectivity around the UKC hub are likely to have the greatest potential.
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Appendices
Appendix A. Technical Model Overview ______24 Appendix B. Demand Model Development ______29 Appendix C. Public Transport Service Inputs ______43 Appendix D. Station Usage ______74 Appendix E. Accessibility Plots______92 Appendix F. Highway Congestion ______94 Appendix G. Flow Difference Plots ______99
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Appendix A. Technical Model Overview
Section A.1 gives an overview of the PRISM forecasting process, and A.2 describes the place that LENS has within this overall process. It is intended for readers with some familiarity of transport models.
A.1 PRISM Forecasting
To understand why this is necessary, an overview of the PRISM model and forecasting process is given below; further details can be found in PRISM model reports8.
The PRISM model is a variable demand model of the West Midlands, which uses a sophisticated demand model to forecast future travel patterns from a base year of 2011. It can be thought of as having two main components; a supply model representing highway and public transport journeys from which details like average journey time can be calculated, and a demand model that uses detailed demographic data9 to forecast travel patterns. These trips are forecast based on relationships observed in the 2009-12 Household Travel Surveys10 in the West Midlands metropolitan area. The forecast trips are only generated based on population and other demographic data within the Prism fully modelled area (see Figure A.1), consequently the demand model does not predict long distance trips from outside of this area.
Figure A.1: PRISM modelled area
8 See the PRISM 4.1 Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) and Forecasting Report. Available from the PRISM w ebsite http://www.prism-wm.com/ 9 See the PRISM 4.1 Data Summary Report for more information. Available from the PRISM w ebsite http://www.prism-wm.com/ 10 See the PRISM Surveys 2011: Household Travel Survey report for more information.Available from the PRISM w ebsite http://www.prism-wm.com/ 24 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
WebTAG11 would classify the model form as an absolute model applied incrementally, this means when producing future year forecast travel patterns (represented in the form of a matrix) the demand model is used to create a predicted future year matrix and a corresponding predicted base year matrix, which are then used to adjust an observed base matrix to create the forecast future year forecast matrices. In this way the demand model predictions are intended to represent all travel as accurately as possible, but important differences between the observed travel patterns in the base year and the demand model outputs for the base year are reflected in the forecasts. This forecast matrix is then assigned in the supply models producing updated travel costs (taking into account congestion affects), which in turn leads to a new forecast matrix. A simplified version of the PRISM forecasting process is shown diagrammatically in Figure A.2. In accordance with WebTAG this process is iterated until the model is said to converge (i.e. the output forecast matrices are sufficiently stable between successive iterations).
Figure A.2: PRISM forecasting process
The current forecasting process described above is not suitable for forecasting HS2 long-distance travel because the PRISM demand model only generates trips for residents of West Midlands using relationships based on observed behaviour in the West Midland’s metropolitan area, but HS2 will be used by a much wider catchment.
A.2 PRISM-LENS - Technical
The new demand module (PRISM-LENS) is focussed on the tasks of representing the passengers who will either board (or alight) services at each of the two HS2 stations in the West Midlands, ultimately trying to answer the questions “where in the West Midlands will these
11 See section 4.3.1 of DfTs WebTAG guidance M2. Available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/427122/ w ebtag-tag-unit-m2-variable-demand-modelling.pdf 25 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
passengers originate from?” and “how will they get to the HS2 stations?”.
Figure A.3 below shows the process steps diagrammatically. On the one hand inputs from HS2 Ltd’s PLANET model are used to provide the total number of passengers accessing (or alighting from) a station, and also to provide a reference modal share between PT and Car-Access. PRISM provides accessibility information and also demographic information (such as population, number of jobs and number of workers per zone). A Logit model is used to distribute passengers to different zones based on their relative utility (which is a function of accessibility and also zonal attractiveness based on demographic information).
The modal share between car-access and PT-access is allowed to change by running the model for a reference and test scenario; in the reference scenario the modal split is assumed to be equal to output of the PLANET forecasts. These forecasts come from a model designed to forecast long-distance trips based on a scenario that is ‘business as usual’ except for the addition of the HS2 services – and hence corresponding to a PRISM reference scenario. In the test scenario use of composite costs is made to assess the change in relative attractiveness of car-access and PT-access, based on this change the modal split is correspondingly altered.
A fuller description (including the parameters used and differences for business, commute and leisure travel) is included in 0. However from this overview it should be possible to see how PRISM-LENS can predict where HS2 passengers will be travelling to and what modal choice they will make.
Figure A.3: The PRISM-LENS model
It should be noted that the total number of HS2 passengers at each station is a fixed input, as it was beyond the scope of this work to consider how that could be altered.
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Figure A.4 below shows how LENS is incorporated within the PRISM forecasting methodology.
Figure A.4: New PRISM forecasting process
A.2.1 Station Catchments
The presence of two stations in the West Midlands meant that there was a need to represent the impact of station catchments, without catchments illogical movements (such as alighting at Curzon Street and then travelling back to Birmingham airport) are possible.
In order to better represent people’s choices, it was decided to use station catchments to limit which zones you may travel to from each station. Appendix B section 4.2 details an approach using highway access time to limit people’s choices in a logical way. However it was soon noted in testing that the accessibility by public transport to each station is very different to the accessibility by car (see Appendix E), for example someone living near Perry Barr is able to join the motorway and travel to Interchange station easily, but if travelling by public transport there best journey is to go via the city centre.
For this reason separate catchments for highway access and public transport access have been set up following similar methodologies; where highway access catchments use highway access times, the public transport catchments use public transport access times.
The station catchments are calculated automatically based on the
following rule using the access time to Curzon Street (Tcz) and access time to Interchange station (Tic). The method chosen account that some travellers will select a station based on minimising total journey time and that some travellers will select a station based on minimising access/egress time. The following rules are used:
a. Curzon Street only where: Tcz – Tic > 11 b. Interchange only where: Tic – Tcz > 11 c. both stations available where: 0≤ Tic – Tcz ≤ 11
27 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
The limiting factor of 11minutes is due to the fact it takes HS2 services 11 minutes to travel the extra distance from Interchange station to Curzon Street. In cases a and b, one station is clearly best irrespective of whether travellers minimise total journey time or access/egress time. However in case c, the most attractive station depends on whether the traveller minimises total journey time or access/egress time and so both stations are represented as available.
This is equivalent to method 4 in section 4.2 of Appendix B, however note that separate catchments are created for highway and PT based on either highway or PT access time.
In this way the possible destinations for each station, by each mode, are limited in a logical sense.
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Appendix B. Demand Model Development
Much of the work to build, estimate and calibrate the new demand model module for LENS was carried out by RAND Europe12.
RAND Europe have provided a technical memo detailing the work involved in this task, and it has been included here for any reader who wishes to see the model structure in more detail.
12 http://www.rand.org/randeurope.html - RAND Europe are a nonprofit research institution, w ho have been w ho have been involved w ith the developed of PRISM since its inception. 29 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Insert B.1: RAND Memorandum PR-1773-MM
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31 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
32 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
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34 343314///1/A 3rd November 2015 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
35 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
36 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
37 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
38 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
39 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
40 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Source: Rand Europe – 24th July 2015 - PR-1773-MM
41 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
42 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Appendix C. Public Transport Service Inputs
The full line-routes included have both the high-speed line and also the component of the journey on classic rail (e.g. some of the proposed phase 1 line-routes will run on high-speed as far as Birmingham and then carry on classic rail to Scotland). By including the station-to-station times from the Planet model we are able to model these mixed-mode services accurately.
C.1 HS2 Phase 1 Service patterns
Phase 1 has been coded into the 2031-With HS2 model.
Table 12: HS2 London Euston to Glasgow (Line 10A)
HS2 Phase 1 London Euston to Glasgow (Line 10A)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM to next to Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 95min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston Rail Station 130min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Glasgow Central Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 13: HS2 Glasgow to London Euston (Line 10A)
HS2 Phase 1 Glasgow to London Euston (Line 10A)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Glasgow Central Rail 130min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Preston Rail Station 95min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
43 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
London Euston to Liverpool
Table 14: HS2 London Euston to Liverpool (Time profile 1) (Line 8)
HS2 Phase 1 London Euston to Liverpool (Time profile 1) (Line 8)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 48min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Stafford Rail Station 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Runcorn Rail Station 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Liverpool Lime Street Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 15: HS2 London Euston to Liverpool (Time profile 2) (Line 7)
HS2 Phase 1 London Euston to Liverpool (Time profile 2) (Line 7)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 62min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Crewe Rail Station 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Runcorn Rail Station 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Liverpool Lime Street Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 16: HS2 Liverpool to London Euston (Time profile 1) (Line 8)
HS2 Phase 1 Liverpool to London Euston (Time profile 1) (Line 8)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Liverpool Lime Street Rail 17min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
44 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Runcorn Rail Station 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Stafford Rail Station 48min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 17: HS2 Liverpool to London Euston (Time profile 2) (Line 7)
HS2 Phase 1 Liverpool to London Euston (Time profile 2) (Line 7)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Liverpool Lime Street Rail 17min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Runcorn Rail Station 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Crewe Rail Station 62min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
45 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
C.2 HS2 Phase2 Service patterns
London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street
Table 18: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Birmingham (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 38min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Curzon 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Street
Table 19: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Birmingham (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 30min 30min 30min Station
Old Oak Common 31min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Birmingham Interchange 9min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Birmingham Curzon 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min Street
Table 20: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham to London Euston (option1)
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Birmingham Curzon 38min 0min 60min 60min 60min Street
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
46 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 21: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham to London Euston (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Birmingham Curzon 9min 0min 30min 30min 30min Street
Birmingham Interchange 31min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 30min 30min 30min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min Station
London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly
Table 22: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Manchester (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Interchange 29min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Airport 7min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Piccadilly 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 23: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Manchester (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
47 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 56min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Airport 7min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Piccadilly 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 24: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Manchester (option 3)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 61min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Piccadilly 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 25: HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Manchester Piccadilly 7min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Airport Old 29min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Interchange 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 26: HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
48 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Manchester Piccadilly 7min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Airport Old 56min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 27: HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston (option 3)
HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Manchester Piccadilly 61min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
London Euston to Leeds
Table 28: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Leeds (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Leeds
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 44min 2min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 29min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Leeds 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 29: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Leeds (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Leeds
Stop Point Ti m e to ne St xt op sta Ti tio m n e Headw ays
49 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00- 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Interchange 15min 2min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Meadowhall 15min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Leeds 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 30: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Leeds (option 3)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Leeds
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 44min 2min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Meadowhall 15min 7min 60min 60min 60min
Leeds 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 31: HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to London Euston (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Leeds 29min 0min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 44min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
50 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 32: HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to London Euston (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Leeds 15min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Meadowhall 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 15min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Birmingham Interchange 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 33: HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to London Euston (option 3)
HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Leeds 15min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Meadowhall 17min 7min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 44min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester Piccadilly
Table 34: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester Piccadilly
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester Piccadilly
Stop Point Ti m e to ne St xt op sta Ti tio m n e Headw ays
51 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00- 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Birmingham Curzon 32min 0min 30min 30min 30min Street
Manchester Airport 7min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Manchester Piccadilly 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min
Table 35: HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to Birmingham Curzon Street
HS2 Phase 2 Manchester Piccadilly to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Manchester Piccadilly 7min 0min 30min 30min 30min
Manchester Airport 32min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Birmingham Curzon 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min Street
Birmingham Curzon Street to Leeds
Table 36: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Leeds
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Leeds
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Birmingham Curzon 19min 0min 30min 30min 30min Street
East Midlands 17min 2min 30min 30min 30min Interchange
Meadowhall 15min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Leeds 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min
Table 37: HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to Birmingham Curzon Street
HS2 Phase 2 Leeds to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Ti m e to ne St xt op sta Ti tio m n e Headw ays
52 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00- 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Leeds 15min 0min 30min 30min 30min
Meadowhall 17min 2min 30min 30min 30min
East Midlands 19min 2min 30min 30min 30min Interchange
Birmingham Curzon 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min Street
London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street
Table 38: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 46min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Stafford 32min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Runcorn 18min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Liverpool Lime Street 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 39: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Liverpool Lime Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 48min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Crewe 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Runcorn 18min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Liverpool Lime Street 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
53 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Table 40: HS2 Phase 2 Liverpool Lime Street to London Euston (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 Liverpool Lime Street to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Liverpool Lime Street 18min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Runcorn 32min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Stafford 46min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 41: HS2 Phase 2 Liverpool Lime Street to London Euston (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Liverpool Lime Street to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Liverpool Lime Street 18min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Runcorn 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Crewe 48min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
London Euston to Preston
Table 42: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Preston
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Preston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
54 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Oak Common 48min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Crewe 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Warrington Bank Quay 9min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 43: HS2 Phase 2 Preston to London Euston
HS2 Phase 2 Preston to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Preston 13min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western 9min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Warrington Bank Quay 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Crewe 48min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
London Euston to Glasgow Central
Table 44: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Glasgow Central (option1)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Glasgow Central
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Interchange 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 109min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 24min 5min 60min 60min 60min
Glasgow Central 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
55 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Table 45: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Glasgow Central (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Glasgow Central
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 70min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 109min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 24min 5min 60min 60min 60min
Glasgow Central 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 46: HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to London Euston (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Glasgow Central 24min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 109min 5min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Interchange 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 47: HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to London Euston (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Glasgow Central 24min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 109min 5min 60min 60min 60min
56 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Preston 70min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
London Euston to Edinburgh
Table 48: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Edinburgh (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Edinburgh
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Interchange 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 109min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 24min 5min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 3min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Edinburgh Waverley 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 49:HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Edinburgh (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Edinburgh
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Oak Common 70min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 109min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 24min 5min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 3min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Edinburgh Waverley 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
57 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Table 50: HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to London Euston (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Edinburgh Waverley 3min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 24min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 109min 5min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Interchange 31min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 51: HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to London Euston (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Edinburgh Waverley 3min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 24min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carstairs 109min 5min 60min 60min 60min
Preston 70min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Birmingham Curzon Street to Glasgow Central
Table 52: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Glasgow Central (option1)
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Glasgow Central
Stop Point Ti m e to ne St xt op sta Ti tio m n e Headw ays
58 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00- 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Curzon Street 35min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Preston Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lancaster Rail Station 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Penrith North Lakes Rail 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Carlisle Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Motherwell Rail Station 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Glasgow Central Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 53: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Glasgow Central (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Glasgow Central
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Curzon Street 35min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Preston Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lancaster Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oxenholme Lake District 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min Rail Station
Carlisle Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Motherwell Rail Station 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Glasgow Central Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
59 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Table 54: HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to Birmingham Curzon Street (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Glasgow Central Rail 13min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Motherwell Rail Station 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carlisle Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Penrith North Lakes Rail 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Lancaster Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston Rail Station 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 35min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Curzon Street 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 55: HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to Birmingham Curzon Street (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Glasgow Central to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Glasgow Central Rail 13min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Motherwell Rail Station 43min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carlisle Rail Station 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oxenholme Lake District 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min Rail Station
Lancaster Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston Rail Station 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min
60 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Wigan North Western Rail 35min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Curzon Street 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Curzon Street to Edinburgh
Table 56: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Edinburgh (option1)
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Edinburgh
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Curzon Street 35min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Preston Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lancaster Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oxenholme Lake District 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min Rail Station
Carlisle Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 55min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 3min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Edinburgh Rail Station 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 57: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Edinburgh (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Edinburgh
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Curzon Street 35min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Preston Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lancaster Rail Station 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Penrith North Lakes Rail 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
61 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Station
Carlisle Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 55min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 3min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Edinburgh Rail Station 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 58: HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to Birmingham Curzon Street (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM to next to Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Edinburgh Rail Station 3min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 55min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carlisle Rail Station 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Oxenholme Lake District 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min Rail Station
Lancaster Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston Rail Station 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 35min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Curzon Street 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 59: HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to Birmingham Curzon Street (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 Edinburgh to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Edinburgh Rail Station 3min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Haymarket Rail Station 55min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Lockerbie Rail Station 20min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Carlisle Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
62 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Penrith North Lakes Rail 41min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Lancaster Rail Station 14min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Preston Rail Station 13min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 35min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Curzon Street 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Birmingham Curzon Street to Newcastle
Table 60: HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Newcastle
HS2 Phase 2 Birmingham Curzon Street to Newcastle
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Curzon Street 19min 0min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Meadowhall 23min 2min 60min 60min 60min
York Rail Station 28min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Darlington Rail Station 15min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Durham Rail Station 15min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Newcastle Rail Station 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 61: HS2 Phase 2 Newcastle to Birmingham Curzon Street
HS2 Phase 2 New castle to Birmingham Curzon Street
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Newcastle Rail Station 15min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Durham Rail Station 15min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Darlington Rail Station 28min 2min 60min 60min 60min
York Rail Station 23min 2min 60min 60min 60min
63 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Meadowhall 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 19min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Curzon Street 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston to York
Table 62: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to York
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to York
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 44min 2min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 17min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Meadowhall 23min 5min 60min 60min 60min
York Rail Station 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 63: HS2 Phase 2 York to London Euston
HS2 Phase 2 York to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
York Rail Station 23min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Meadowhall 17min 5min 60min 60min 60min
East Midlands 44min 2min 60min 60min 60min Interchange
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
London Euston to Newcastle
64 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Table 64: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Newcastle (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Newcastle
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 74min 2min 60min 60min 60min
York Rail Station 55min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Newcastle Rail Station 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Table 65: HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Newcastle (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 London Euston to Newcastle
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 74min 2min 60min 60min 60min
York Rail Station 28min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Darlington Rail Station 29min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Newcastle Rail Station 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 66: HS2 Phase 2 Newcastle to London Euston (option 1)
HS2 Phase 2 New castle to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Newcastle Rail Station 55min 0min 60min 60min 60min
York Rail Station 74min 2min 60min 60min 60min
65 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 67: HS2 Phase 2 Newcastle to London Euston (option 2)
HS2 Phase 2 New castle to London Euston
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Newcastle Rail Station 29min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Darlington Rail Station 28min 2min 60min 60min 60min
York Rail Station 74min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Newcastle Rail Station 29min 0min 60min 60min 60min
66 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
London Euston to Manchester
Table 68: HS2 London Euston to Manchester (Time profile 1) (Line 6)
HS2 Phase 1 London Euston to Manchester (Time profile 1) (Line 6)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 78min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Wilmslow Rail Station 7min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Stockport Rail Station 7min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Manchester Piccadilly Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 69: HS2 London Euston to Manchester (Time profile 2) (Line 4/5)
HS2 Phase 1 London Euston to Manchester (Time profile 2) (Line 4/5)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 30min 30min 30min Station
Old Oak Common 84min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Stockport Rail Station 7min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Manchester Piccadilly Rail 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min Station
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 30min 30min 30min Station
Table 70: HS2 Manchester to London Euston (Time profile 1) (Line 6)
HS2 Phase 1 Manchester to London Euston (Time profile 1) (Line 6)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Manchester Piccadilly Rail 7min 0min 60min 60min 60min
67 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Station
Stockport Rail Station 7min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Wilmslow Rail Station 78min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Table 71: HS2 Manchester to London Euston (Time profile 2) (Line 4/5)
HS2 Phase 1 Manchester to London Euston (Time profile 2) (Line 4/5)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Manchester Piccadilly Rail 7min 0min 30min 30min 30min Station
Stockport Rail Station 84min 2min 30min 30min 30min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 30min 30min 30min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 30min 30min 30min Station
London Euston to Preston
Table 72: HS2 London Euston to Preston (Line 9)
HS2 Phase 1 London Euston to Preston (Line 9)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
Old Oak Common 62min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Crewe Rail Station 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Warrington Bank Quay 9min 2min 60min 60min 60min Rail Station
Wigan North Western Rail 12min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Preston Rail Station 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min
68 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Table 73: HS2 Preston to London Euston
HS2 Phase 1 Preston to London Euston (Line 9)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Preston Rail Station 12min 0min 60min 60min 60min
Wigan North Western Rail 9min 2min 60min 60min 60min Station
Warrington Bank Quay 16min 2min 60min 60min 60min Rail Station
Crewe Rail Station 62min 2min 60min 60min 60min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 60min 60min 60min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 60min 60min 60min Station
London Euston to Curzon Street
Table 74: HS2 London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street (Line 1/2/3)
HS2 Phase 1 London Euston to Birmingham Curzon St (Line 1/2/3)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
London Euston Rail 5min 0min 20min 20min 20min Station
Old Oak Common 31min 2min 20min 20min 20min
Interchange 9min 2min 20min 20min 20min
Curzon Street 0min 0min 20min 20min 20min
Table 75: HS2 Birmingham Curzon Street to London Euston (Line 1/2/3)
HS2 Phase 1 Birmingham Curzon st to London Euston (Line 1/2/3)
Stop Point Headw ays
AM IP PM Period Period Period (07.00- (10.00- (16.00-
Time to next to Time station Time Stop 09.00) 12.00) 18.00)
Curzon Street 9min 0min 20min 20min 20min
69 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Interchange 31min 2min 20min 20min 20min
Old Oak Common 5min 2min 20min 20min 20min
London Euston Rail 0min 0min 20min 20min 20min Station
C.3 Digbeth Metro Extension
Table 76: Digbeth Metro Extension Inbound
Digbeth Metro Extension Inbound
Stop Point Headw ays
AM Period IP Period PM (07.00- (10.00- Period 09.00) 12.00) (16.00-
Time to next to Time station 18.00)
Centenary Square 1min 32s 6min 6min 6min
Tow n Hall 1min 46s 6min 6min 6min
Stephenson St MM 1min 39s 6min 6min 6min
Corporation St MM 2min 25s 6min 6min 6min
HS2 Curzon 1min 47s 6min 6min 6min
HS2 Fazeley 2min 20s 6min 6min 6min
High Street Deritend 2min 24s 6min 6min 6min
Adderley Street 0min 6min 6min 6min
Table 77: Digbeth Metro Extension Outbound
Digbeth Metro Extension Outbound
Stop Point Headw ays
AM Period IP Period PM (07.00- (10.00- Period 09.00) 12.00) (16.00-
Time to next to Time station 18.00)
Adderley Street 2min 24s 6min 6min 6min
High Street Deritend 2min 20s 6min 6min 6min
HS2 Fazeley 1min 47s 6min 6min 6min
HS2 Curzon 2min 25s 6min 6min 6min
Corporation St MM 1min 39s 6min 6min 6min
70 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Stephenson St MM 1min 46s 6min 6min 6min
Tow n Hall 1min 32s 6min 6min 6min
Centenary Square 0min 6min 6min 6min
C.4 Hagley Sprint Route
Table 78: Hagley Sprint Route Inbound
Hagley Sprint Route Inbound
Stop Point Headw ays
AM Period IP Period PM Period (07.00-09.00) (10.00-12.00) (16.00-18.00) Time to next to Time station
Pool Rd, 2min 46s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s QUEENSWAY
Shenstone Island, 2min 19s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s MUCKLOW HILL
Sylvan Green, 2min 21s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s MUCKLOW HILL
Belle Vue Drive, 1min 50s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s MUCKLOW HILL
Quinton Cemetery, 2min 35s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HALESOWEN RD
Quinton Church, HAGLEY RD 2min 12s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
Quinton Hill, HAGLEY RD 2min 21s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
White Rd, HAGLEY RD 2min 31s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
Beechwood Rd, HAGLEY RD 1min 58s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
Bearwood Interchange, 2min 4s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD WEST
Meadow Rd, 2min 12s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD
71 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Westfield Rd, 2min 20s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD
Portland Rd, 2min 22s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD
Plough & Harrow Hotel, HAGLEY 2min 36s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s RD
Sheepcote St, 2min 8s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s BROAD ST
International Convention 2min 24s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s Centre, BROAD ST
Lionel St, 2min 11s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s NEWHALL ST
Steelhouse Lane, COLMORE 0min 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s CIRCUS QUEENSWAY
Table 79: Hagley Sprint Route Outbound
Hagley Sprint Route Outbound
Stop Point Headw ays
AM Period IP Period PM Period (07.00-09.00) (10.00-12.00) (16.00-18.00) Time to next to Time station
Steelhouse Lane, COLMORE 2min 11s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s CIRCUS QUEENSWAY
Lionel St, 2min 24s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s NEWHALL ST
International Convention 2min 8s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s Centre, BROAD ST
Sheepcote St, 2min 36s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s BROAD ST
Plough & Harrow Hotel, HAGLEY 2min 22s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s RD
Portland Rd, 2min 20s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD
Westfield Rd, 2min 12s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD
72 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Meadow Rd, 2min 4s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD
Bearwood Interchange, 1min 58s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HAGLEY RD WEST
Beechwood Rd, HAGLEY RD 2min 31s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
White Rd, HAGLEY RD 2min 21s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
Quinton Hill, HAGLEY RD 2min 12s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
Quinton Church, HAGLEY RD 2min 35s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s WEST
Quinton Cemetery, 1min 50s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s HALESOWEN RD
Belle Vue Drive, 2min 21s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s MUCKLOW HILL
Sylvan Green, 2min 19s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s MUCKLOW HILL
Shenstone Island, 2min 46s 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s MUCKLOW HILL
Pool Rd, 0min 7min 30s 7min 30s 7min 30s QUEENSWAY
73 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Appendix D. Station Usage
D.1 UK Central Car-Access
D.1.1 2031
Figure D.1: 2031 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
Figure D.2: 2031 IP UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
74 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure D.3: 2031 PM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
D.1.2 2041
Figure D.4: 2041 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
75 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure D.5: 2041 IP UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
Figure D.6: 2041 PM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
76 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
D.2 Birmingham Curzon Street Car-Access
D.2.1 2031
Figure D.7: 2031 AM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
Figure D.8: 2031 IP Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
77 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure D.9: 2031 PM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
D.2.2 2041
Figure D.10: 2041 AM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
78 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure D.11: 2041 IP Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
Figure D.12: 2041 PM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)
79 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
D.3 UK Central PT-Access
D.3.1 2031
Figure D.13: 2031 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.14: 2031 IP UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
80 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure D.15: 2031 PM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
D.3.2 2041
Figure D.16: 2041 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
81 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure D.17: 2041 IP UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.18: 2041 PM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
82 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
D.4 Birmingham Curzon Street PT-Access
D.4.1 2031
Figure D.19: 2031 AM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.20: 2031 IP Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
83 HS2 into PRISM Summary Report
Figure D.21: 2031 PM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
D.4.2 2041
Figure D.22: 2041 AM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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Figure D.23: 2041 IP Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.24: 2041 PM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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D.5 UK Central PT-Access (with charts)
D.5.1 2031
Figure D.25: 2031 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.26: 2031 IP UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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Figure D.27: 2031 PM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
D.5.2 2041
Figure D.28: 2041 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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Figure D.29: 2041 IP UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.30: 2041 PM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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D.6 Birmingham Curzon Street PT-Access
D.6.1 2031
Figure D.31: 2031 AM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.32: 2031 IP Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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Figure D.33: 2031 PM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
D.6.2 2041
Figure D.34: 2041 AM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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Figure D.35: 2041 IP Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
Figure D.36: 2041 PM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)
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Appendix E. Accessibility Plots
E.1 Accessibility to HS2 Stations (Car and PT)
The change between 2031 and 2041 is too small to see on these scales, and so only 2031 plots are presented here. Further plots available upon request. E.1.1 Birmingham Interchange Station
Figure E.1: 2031 Accessibility to Birmingham Interchange Station IP (Car)
Figure E.2: 2031 Accessibility to Birmingham Interchange Station IP (PT)
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E.1.2 Birmingham Curzon Street Station
Figure E.3: 2041 Accessibility to Birmingham Curzon Street Station IP (Car)
Figure E.4: 2041 Accessibility to Birmingham Curzon Street Station IP (PT)
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Appendix F. Highway Congestion
In order to plot congestion, a ratio of demand-flow to capacity is used. It is noted that demand-flow can exceed the modelled capacity, and so what is important is the relative congestion in different areas rather than the absolute numbers.
F.1 2031-without HS2
Figure F.1: 2031 Reference West Midlands Congestion Levels AM
Figure F.2: 2031 Reference West Midlands Congestion Levels IP
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Figure F.3: 2031 Reference West Midlands Congestion Levels PM
F.2 2031-with HS2
Figure F.4: 2031 (With HS2) West Midlands Congestion Levels AM
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Figure F.5: 2031 (With HS2) West Midlands Congestion Levels IP
Figure F.6: 2031 (With HS2) West Midlands Congestion Levels PM
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F.3 2041-with HS2
Figure F.7: 2041 (With HS2) West Midlands Congestion Levels AM
Figure F.8: 2041 (With HS2) West Midlands Congestion Levels IP
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Figure F.9: 2041 (With HS2) West Midlands Congestion Levels PM
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Appendix G. Flow Difference Plots
Flow difference plots are shown below using modelled demand-volume.
G.1 2031 With HS2 –vs- Reference
A few things need to be remembered when interpreting these plots. The 2031 plots will show the impact of both the additional station traffic, but also the development traffic (see details on demographics in section 3.3), and associated VDM affects.
It is also noteworthy that the VDM results being compared are not from runs designed to be comparable, and so the closest thing to a comparable 2031 run was used. This has two consequences, firstly some links are not highlighted below (particularly around the UKC area) as the links are not comparable in both networks so no meaningful flow difference can be computed, secondly minor changes in re-routing should be viewed as not necessarily significant or indicative of modelling HS2 impacts in isolation.
Figure G.1: 2031 With HS2 vs Reference – AM: Demand flows
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Figure G.2: 2031 With HS2 vs Reference – IP: Demand flows
Figure G.3: 2031 With HS2 vs Reference – PM: Demand flows
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G.2 2041 With HS2 –vs- 2031 With HS2
Figure G.4: 2031-vs -2041 With HS2– AM: Demand flows
Figure G.5: 2031-vs -2041 With HS2– IP: Demand flows
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Figure G.6: 2031-vs -2041 With HS2– PM: Demand flows
102 CASM and HS2 TECHNICAL NOTE: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED HS2 METHODOLOGY APPENDIX B Birmingham International Transport Hub 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Birmingham International Transport Hub Draft Demand Forecasts
1. Birmingham International Development Area Mott MacDonald requested population and employment forecasts from four development zones around the Birmingham International Transport Hub area in order to inform our Birmingham International Transport Hub study. The zones were:
Birmingham Airport The NEC Arden Cross Jaguar Land Rover
The numbers were required to help us to understand whether the current population and employment forecasts in PRISM were representing the future situation in the Hub when HS2 is in operation.
The current PRISM figures, taken from the HS2 into PRISM report produced for the GBSLEP, are outlined in the following table:
Table 1: PRISM Population and Employment Figures
Location PRISM Zone Population Employment Population Employment Growth 2031 + Growth 2031 Growth 2041 Growth 2041 HS2 + HS2 + HS2 + HS2
Birmingham Airport 5065 445 2,000 575 2,500 The NEC 5066 445 2,000 575 2,500
Arden Cross 5212 1,280 5,400 3,312 12,800 Jaguar Land Rover 5162 445 2,000 575 2,500 Source: Mott MacDonald (2015) ‘HS2 into PRISM: Summary Report’
This note outlines the information that was provided by each development zone and the calculations that were undertaken in order to work out forecast population and employment figures for each site. The ‘Outcomes’ section of this note outlines our findings.
This note also outlines population and employment forecasts from PRISM for all of the zones in Solihull (section 2) and the highway and public transport schemes that will be included in the modelling scenario when the Birmingham International Transport Hub is modelled (section 2).
Inputs The following forecast information was provided by the developers: 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Table 2: Inputs
Development Information Provided Zone Birmingham Airport Year Passenger Numbers 2015 11mppa 2020 12mppa 2030 17mppa 2035 23mppa 2040 28mppa 2050 38mppa The NEC Land Use Area Number Office Use 125,000m2 8600 jobs Hotel Use 17,000m2 375 keys Residential Use 49,000m2 570 flats Mixed Use 73,000m2 Industrial Use 16,000m2
Arden Cross Land Use Area (GEA in m²) Dwellings Offices/Mixed Use (B1) 182,745 Light Ind./R&D 83,176 Retail/Leisure 38,022 Community/School 7,950 1,008 flats Residential 180,905 1,247 houses Jaguar Land Rover Site Land Use Size (m²) Site 1 B2/B8 Site 2&3: B8 100,000 Site 4: B2/B8 208,000
Assumptions and Calculations
Using the information provided for each development site, appropriate guidance was used to calculate the future population and employment numbers at each site.
Birmingham Airport
Birmingham Airport provided forecast passenger numbers for specific years between 2015 and 2050. It was assumed that the passenger growth would be spread equally between each year and therefore divided the growth to allocate a number for each year between 2015 and 2050. Table 1 provides an example of how this was calculated. The figures in red show the numbers that were provided by Birmingham Airport and the figures in black show the numbers that were interpolated based on this forecasts. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Table 3: Forecast Passenger Growth
Year Forecast Passenger Numbers 2015 11,000,000 2016 11,200,000 2017 11,400,000 2018 11,600,000 2019 11,800,000 2020 12,000,000 2021 12,500,000 2022 13,000,000 2023 13,500,000 2024 14,000,000 2025 14,500,000 2026 15,000,000 2027 15,500,000 2028 16,000,000 2029 16,500,000 2030 17,000,000 2031 18,200,000
To calculate how much additional employment there would be at the airport, guidance from Airports Council International was used which estimates that airports with more than 10 million passengers per annum created 0.85 direct jobs per 1000 extra passengers which equates to 850 direct jobs per million passengers.
This calculation was assigned to the forecast passenger numbers to work out how many additional people would be employed at the site in 2031 and 2041, as outlined in the following table:
Table 4: Birmingham Airport Employment Calculations
Year Forecast Passenger Numbers Additional Passengers Additional Jobs
2015 11,000,000 2031 18,200,000 7,200,000 6,120 (=18,200,000 - 11,000,000) =((7,200,000*0.85)/1000) 2041 29,000,000 18,000,000 15,300 (=29,000,000 - 11,000,000) =((18,000,000*0.85)/1000) The calculated numbers for the additional employees at Birmingham Airport were included in the table of proposed figures for PRISM.
The NEC The NEC provided the forecast area for a number of land-uses within the site as well as numbers of jobs/dwellings for some of the land-uses. To calculate the number of employees that could be 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
expected at each land use, guidance on employment densities from the Homes & Communities Agency (HCA)1 was used, as outlined in the following table.
Table 5: Employment density matrix
The NEC Land Use Class Sub-Category Sub-Sector Density (m²) Use Hotel Use C1 Hotels Mid-scale 1 per 3 beds
Industrial Use B2 Industrial & Manufacturing 36
Mixed Use* A1 Retail 15-20
A3 Restaurants & Cafes 15-20
*For the mixed land use, it was assumed 30% of the land use would be commercial and 70% would be residential. It was also assumed that the commercial land would be split 50/50 between retail and restaurants/cafes
Please note, where more than use/class/sub-category was appropriate; an average of the densities was used. Source: HCA (2015) Employment Densities Guide The densities were then applied to the areas provided by The NEC to work out how many additional people would be employed at the site. Table 5 provides an example of how this was calculated. The figures in red show the numbers that were provided by the NEC and the figure in green shows the density taken from the HCA guidance.
Table 6: The NEC Employment Calculations Example
Land Use Development Number of rooms Bedrooms per 1 Total number of Area (m²) employee employees Mid-market hotel 17,000 375 3.00 125 =(375/3.00) To calculate how many additional residents would be accommodated around the NEC site, the Census figure for the average number of residents in a UK household was applied to the total number of dwellings at the site. Table 6 shows of how this was calculated. The figures in red show the numbers that were provided by the NEC and the figure in green shows the density taken from Census data.
Table 7: The NEC Population Calculations
Land Use Development Number of flats Census Average Total number of Area (m²) UK household employees (people) Residential 49,000 570 2.32 1,311 =(570*2.3)
1 HCA (2015) Employment Densities Guide https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/484133/employment_density_guide_3rd_edition.pdf 2 This may be an overestimate. We require a more detailed breakdown of dwelling size e.g. one beds, two beds etc. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
The calculated numbers for the additional employees and residents at The NEC were included in the table of proposed figures for PRISM.
Arden Cross
Similarly to the NEC, Arden Cross provided the forecast area for a number of land-uses within the site as well as numbers of jobs/dwellings for some of the land-uses. To calculate the number of employees that could be expected at each land use, the Homes & Communities Agency (HCA) guidance was again used, as outlined in the following table.
Table 8: Employment density matrix
Arden Cross Use Class Sub-Category Sub-Sector Density (m²) Land Use Offices/Mixed B1a Offices General Office Corporate 13 Use* Professional Services 12
Public Sector 12
TMT 11
Financial & Insurance 10
B1b R&D Space 40-60
B1c Light Industrial 47
Light Ind/R&D B1b R&D Space 40-60
B1c Light Industrial 47
Retail/Leisure A1 Retail High Street 15-20
A1 Retail Foodstore 15-20
D2 Fitness Centre Budget 100
Mid-market/family 65
Cinema 200
Visitor & Cultural Attractions 30-300
Amusement & Entertainment Centres 70
Community/School D1 Cultural Attractions 36
*For the offices/ mixed land use, it was assumed 50% of the land use would be offices and 50% would be R&D/light industrial
Please note, where more than use/class/sub-category was appropriate; an average of the densities was used. Source: HCA (2015) Employment Densities Guide The densities were then applied to the areas provided by Arden Cross to work out how many additional people would be employed at the site. Table 8 provides an example of how this was calculated. The figures in red show the numbers that were provided by the NEC and the figure in green shows the density taken from the 2010 HCA guidance. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Table 9: Arden Cross Employment Calculations Example
Land Use Development Area (m²) Area per FTE (m²) Total number of employees
Offices 91,372.5 11.6 7,877 = (91,372.5/11.6) Mixed Use 91,372.5 48.5 1,884 =(91,372.5/48.5) Total 9,761
To calculate how many additional residents would be accommodated around the Arden Cross site, the Census figure on the average number of residents in a UK household was applied to the total number of dwellings at the site. Table 9 shows of how this was calculated. The figures in red show the numbers that were provided by the NEC and the figure in green shows the density taken from Census data.
Table 10: Arden Cross Population Calculations
Land Use Development Area Number of Census Average UK Total number of (m²) dwellings household (people) employees Residential 180,905 2,255 2.33 5,187 =(2,255*2.3) The calculated numbers for the additional employees and residents at Arden Cross were included in the table of proposed figures for PRISM.
Jaguar Land Rover
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) provided the forecast area and land-uses for two sites within the development land. To calculate the number of employees that could be expected at each site, the same HCA guidance as for the other development sites was used, as outlined in the following table.
Table 11: Employment density matrix
JLR Land Use Use Class Sub-Category Sub-Sector Density (m²)
B2 B2 Industrial & Manufacturing 36
B8 B8 Storage & National Distribution Centre 95 Distribution Regional Distribution Centre 77
‘Final Mile’ Distribution Centre 70
Please note, where more than use/class/sub-category was appropriate; an average of the densities was used. Source: HCA (2015) Employment Densities Guide
3 This may be an overestimate. We require a more detailed breakdown of dwelling size e.g. one beds, two beds etc. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
The densities were then applied to the areas provided by JLR to work out how many additional people would be employed at the site. Table 11 shows how this was calculated. The figures in red show the numbers that were provided by the NEC and the figure in green shows the density taken from the 2010 HCA guidance.
Table 12: Jaguar Land Rover Employment Calculations
Land Use Density (m²) B2 Area per FTE (m²) 36 B8 Area per FTE (m²) 90.66
Land Use Development B2 Development B8 Development Total number of employees Area (m²) Area (m²) Area (m²) Site 2&3 100,000 100,000 1,103 =(100,000/90.66) Site 4 208,000 104,000 104,000 4,036 =(104,000/36)+(104,000/90.66) Total 5,139
The calculated numbers for the additional employees at JLR were included in the table of proposed figures for PRISM.
Outcomes
The following tables show the outcomes of the calculations. Table 12 outlines the existing forecast population in PRISM for 2031 and 2041 and the proposed forecast population for 2031 and 2041 following our calculations.
Table 13: Existing and Proposed Population for PRISM
Location PRISM Zone Population Proposed Population Proposed Growth 2031 + Population Growth 2041 Population HS2 Growth 2031 + HS2 Growth 2041
Birmingham Airport 5065 445 575 The NEC 5066 445 1,015 575 296
Arden Cross 5212 1,280 2,004 3,312 3,182 Jaguar Land Rover 5162 445 575 Table 13 outlines the existing forecast employment in PRISM for 2031 and 2041 and the proposed forecast employment for 2031 and 2041 following our calculations. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Table 12: Existing and Proposed Employment for PRISM
Location PRISM Zone Employment Proposed Employment Proposed Growth 2031 + Employment Growth 2041 Employment HS2 Growth 2031 + HS2 Growth 2041
Birmingham Airport 5065 2,000 6,120 2,500 9,180 The NEC 5066 2,000 8,212 2,500 2,053
Arden Cross 5212 5,400 5,450 12,800 7,469
Jaguar Land Rover 5162 2,000 4,111 2,500 1,028
This information and data from the existing PRISM model have been used to inform the following graphs. Figure 1 shows how population forecasts vary between the PRISM reference case, PRISM HS2 and our proposed forecasts.
Figure 2 shows how employment forecasts vary between the PRISM reference case, PRISM HS2 and our proposed forecasts.
Conclusion Based on the information given to us, it is relevant to note the following:
Significant population growth at Arden Cross by 2041 (based on 2.4 people per dwelling) Population growth at the NEC by 2031 (based on 2.4 people per dwelling) Total population by 2041 circa 6,500 Almost double the level of employment at Birmingham Airport between 2031 and 2041 A high level of employment at the NEC in 2031 and 2041 Employment forecasts for Arden Cross and Jaguar Land Rover are similar to the figures included in the HS2 Into PRISM report Further information may be required from stakeholders to clarify land use assumptions and dwelling sizes. It should also be noted that the employment figures in the 2011 PRISM base are thought to be low for some areas e.g. Birmingham Airport which has an impact on forecasting for future years. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Figure 1: Total Population 6,000 5,206
5,000
4,000 3,334
3,000 Population 2,023 2,000 1,324 1,301 1,028 1,000 605 589 577 474 459 447 30 29 27 27 22 21 19 14 14 13 2 2 2 2 - PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM Hub Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 PRISM HS2 PRISM2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 HS2 PRISM2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 HS2 PRISM2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 Birmingham Airport The NEC Arden Cross Jaguar Land Rover PRISM Ref Case PRISM HS2 Hub Proposed 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Figure 2: Total Employment 25,000 21,481
20,000
15,000 14,349 13,699 13,045 12,949 12,671 12,669 12,301 12,297 11,578 10,169 9,843 9,578 Employment
10,000 8,916 8,560 7,353 7,343 6,916 6,571 6,181 5,575 5,540 4,853 4,571
5,000 4,085 149 140 125 - PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM 2041 PRISM Hub Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 Proposed Hub 2031 Proposed Hub 2041 PRISM HS2 2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 HS2 PRISM2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 HS2 PRISM2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 HS2 PRISM2031+HS2 HS2 PRISM2041+HS2 Birmingham Airport The NEC Arden Cross Jaguar Land Rover PRISM Ref Case PRISM HS2 Hub Proposed 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
2. Solihull Borough Growth Areas It is also important to look at growth across the whole borough to see whether it has an impact on the Birmingham International site. Table 14 shows the expected population growth, including HS2 growth, in a select few Solihull zones in 2031 and 2041, taken from PRISM. It is also shows our proposed population growth in 2031, taking into account addition housing numbers provided by Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council. A table showing the expected population growth, including HS2 growth, in all Solihull zones in 2031 and 2041 can be seen in Appendix A. Table 14: Population Growth in Solihull Zones
Location PRISM Zone Population Proposed Population Growth 2031 + Population Growth 2041 + HS2 Growth 2031 HS2 Balsall Common 5072 8,555 11,315 8,824 Cheswick Green 5094 2,590 6,270 2,671 Dickens Heath & 5095 5,442 7,880 5,613 Tidbury Green Knowle east and 5081 7,296 10,056 7,525 north-east
Knowle north-east 5201 3,884 4,344 4,006
East of Solihull 5209 2,943 4,438 3,036
Urban West 1 5173 5,303 5,602 5,469
Urban West 2 5133 2,608 2,815 2,689
Urban West 3 5102 6,877 8,027 1,310 Table 15 shows the expected employment growth, including HS2 growth, in a select few Solihull zones in 2031 and 2041, taken from PRISM. A table showing the expected employment growth, including HS2 growth, in all Solihull zones in 2031 and 2041 can be seen in Appendix B. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Table 15: Employment Growth in Solihull Zones
Location PRISM Zone Employment Employment Growth 2031 + HS2 Growth 2041 + HS2
Balsall Common 5072 1,876 1,984 Cheswick Green 5094 3,636 3,846
Dickens Heath & Tidbury Green 5095 867 917
Knowle east and north-east 5081 2,697 2,853
Knowle north-east 5201 703 744
East of Solihull 5209 447 473
Urban West 1 5173 1,157 1,224
Urban West 2 5133 255 269
Urban West 3 5102 2,126 2,248
3. Future Transport Schemes
It is also important to understand the future transport schemes which will be operational when the first HS2 services commence in 2026. Table 16 shows the future highway schemes that have been coded in PRISM. The table shows that in BHI Do-Minimum scenario, all three highways schemes will be included in the modelling. Table 16: Highways Transport Schemes in PRISM
Scheme PRISM 4.5 HS2 into PRISM PRISM 4.5 with HS2 BHI Do- Reference (based on PRISM 4.1 Reference Case Minimum Case Centenary Square Do-Some) 2031 2031 2041 2031 2041 2031 HS2 Interchange / × M42 Junction 6
Proposed upgrade × to M42 J6 HS2 Curzon Street × / Birmingham City Centre Table 17 shows the future public transport schemes that have been coded in PRISM. The table shows that in BHI Do-Minimum scenario, a number of public transport schemes will be included in the modelling, including the A45 Sprint and Eastside Metro Extension Birmingham to Adderley Street. 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Table 17: Public Transport Schemes in PRISM
Scheme PRISM 4.5 HS2 into PRISM PRISM 4.5 with HS2 BHI Do- Reference (based on PRISM 4.1 Reference Case Minimum Case Centenary Square Do-Some) 2031 2031 2041 2031 2041 2031 HS2 People Mover ×
Digbeth Metro × × Extension Hagley Road Sprint × Eastside Metro × × × × × Extension Birmingham to Adderley Street East Birmingham / × × × × × North Solihull Metro BRT Birmingham × × × × × Airport to Coventry East Birmingham / × × × × × × North Solihull Metro Extension to Five- Ways Sprint A45 × × × × × Wolverhampton to × × × × × Five-Ways Solihull to × × × × × Birmingham HS2 Interchange Birmingham Airport × × × × × to Coleshill Parkway Hall Green to × × × × × Birmingham HS2 Interchange Warwick to Airport × × × × × 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
Appendix A
Table 1: Population Growth in Solihull Zones PRISM Zone PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM HS2 Hub Proposed PRISM HS2 2031+HS2 2031 2041+HS2 5011 3,851 4,160 4,156 4,156 4287 5012 3,831 4,138 4,134 4,134 4264 5013 3,431 3,706 3,703 3,703 3819 5021 2,889 3,121 3,118 3,118 3216 5022 2,934 3,169 3,166 3,166 3266 5023 4,556 4,921 4,917 4,917 5071 5031 6,412 6,927 6,920 6,920 7138 5032 1,382 1,493 1,492 1,492 1539 5041 2,704 2,921 2,919 2,919 3010 5042 2,758 2,979 2,976 2,976 3070 5043 2,938 3,173 3,170 3,170 3270 5051 1,708 1,845 1,843 1,843 1901 5052 5,558 6,004 5,998 5,998 6187 5053 3,493 3,773 3,769 3,769 3888 5061 2,170 2,344 2,342 2,342 2416 5062 2,885 3,117 3,114 3,114 3211 5063 3,482 3,762 3,758 3,758 3876 5064 4,774 5,157 5,152 5,152 5314 5065 2 2 2 2 2 5066 13 14 1,028 1,028 1343 5071 2,832 3,060 3,057 3,057 3153 5072 7,927 8,563 8,555 11,315 8824 5073 1,519 1,640 1,639 1,639 1690 5081 6,761 7,303 7,296 10,056 7525 5082 439 474 474 474 489 5091 4,098 4,427 4,423 4,423 4562 5092 4,006 4,328 4,324 4,324 4460 5093 1,819 1,965 1,963 1,963 2025 5094 2,400 2,592 2,590 6,270 2671 5095 5,042 5,447 5,442 7,880 5613 5101 7,131 7,703 7,696 7,696 7938 5102 6,372 6,883 6,877 8,027 7093 5103 3,047 3,291 3,288 3,288 3392 5111 4,912 5,306 5,301 5,301 5468 5112 4,022 4,345 4,341 4,341 4478 5113 2,897 3,130 3,127 3,127 3225 5121 7,185 7,761 7,754 7,754 7998 5122 5,415 5,849 5,844 5,844 6027 5131 734 793 793 793 817 5132 406 438 438 438 452 5133 2,416 2,610 2,608 2,815 2689 5141 4,365 4,716 4,711 4,711 4859 5142 3,448 3,724 3,721 3,721 3838 5143 4,589 4,957 4,953 4,953 5108 5151 5,462 5,901 5,895 5,895 6081 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
PRISM Zone PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM HS2 Hub Proposed PRISM HS2 2031+HS2 2031 2041+HS2 5152 4,793 5,177 5,173 5,173 5335 5161 2,826 3,053 3,050 3,050 3146 5162 27 29 27 27 28 5163 6,928 7,484 7,477 7,477 7712 5171 3,272 3,535 3,532 3,532 3643 5172 1,681 1,816 1,814 1,814 1871 5173 4,914 5,308 5,303 5,602 5469 5201 3,599 3,887 3,884 4,344 4006 5202 1,177 1,271 1,270 1,270 1310 5203 337 364 364 364 375 5204 3,280 3,544 3,540 3,540 3652 5205 2,720 2,938 2,935 2,935 3027 5206 2,038 2,202 2,200 2,200 2269 5207 1,467 1,585 1,584 1,584 1633 5208 1,130 1,221 1,220 1,220 1258 5209 2,727 2,946 2,943 4,438 3036 5210 133 144 144 144 148 5211 24 26 26 26 27 5212 19 21 2,023 2,023 5281 5213 637 688 688 688 709
Appendix B
Table 2: Employment Growth in Solihull Zones PRISM ZONE PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM HS2 2031+HS2 PRISM HS2 2041+HS2 5011 709 793 786 831 5012 755 845 837 885 5013 474 717 710 751 5021 196 297 294 311 5022 554 839 831 879 5023 432 655 649 686 5031 748 1,132 1,121 1186 5032 372 563 558 590 5041 837 1,267 1,255 1327 5042 530 802 794 840 5043 420 635 629 665 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
PRISM ZONE PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM HS2 2031+HS2 PRISM HS2 2041+HS2 5051 1,916 2,899 2,872 3037 5052 857 1,297 1,285 1359 5053 226 342 339 358 5061 1,475 1,531 1,517 1604 5062 580 602 596 631 5063 1,199 1,814 1,797 1901 5064 779 872 864 914 5065 6,181 6,916 12,301 22229 5066 4,085 4,571 12,297 14848 5071 1,964 2,038 2,019 2135 5072 1,825 1,894 1,876 1984 5073 1,063 1,104 1,094 1157 5081 2,624 2,723 2,697 2853 5082 217 225 223 236 5091 656 681 675 713 5092 560 581 576 609 5093 1,184 1,229 1,217 1288 5094 3,537 3,671 3,636 3846 5095 843 875 867 917 5101 1,785 1,997 1,978 2092 5102 1,918 2,146 2,126 2248 5103 7,181 8,035 7,959 8418 5111 420 470 466 492 5112 650 728 721 763 5113 1,676 1,875 1,857 1964 5121 2,653 2,969 2,941 3111 5122 1,244 1,391 1,378 1457 5131 418 467 463 489 5132 2,369 2,651 2,626 2777 5133 229 257 255 269 5141 1,211 1,355 1,342 1420 5142 654 732 725 767 5143 827 925 916 969 5151 1,090 1,219 1,207 1277 5152 352 394 390 413 5161 342 383 379 401 5162 8,560 9,578 12,671 14176 5163 774 866 858 907 5171 997 1,115 1,104 1168 5172 3,864 4,323 4,282 4529 5173 1,044 1,168 1,157 1224 5201 684 710 703 744 5202 14,520 16,246 16,093 17021 5203 201 225 223 236 5204 142 159 157 167 5205 312 349 346 366 5206 209 234 232 245 5207 513 574 569 601 5208 509 570 565 597 369857-MMD-ZZ-XX-RP-Z-0013-B
PRISM ZONE PRISM 2011 PRISM 2031 PRISM HS2 2031+HS2 PRISM HS2 2041+HS2 5209 435 451 447 473 5210 284 295 292 309 5211 1,179 1,320 1,308 1383 5212 125 140 5,575 13499 5213 10,421 11,660 11,550 12216
Appendix D
CASM PTAM: MODELLED RAIL AND BUS ROUTES
RAIL SERVICES MODELLED Line Name AM IP PM AW Aberystwyth to Birmingham International AW Birmingham International to Aberystwyth AW Birmingham International to Holyhead AW Holyhead to Birmingham International CH Kidderminster/Birmingham to London Marylebone CH Leamington to Stratford-Upon-Avon CH London Marylebone to Birmingham/Kidderminster CH London Marylebone to Stratford-Upon-Avon via Warwick CH Stratford-Upon-Avon to London Marylebone via Warwick GW Gloucs to Gt Malvern GW Gt Malvern to Brighton GW Gt Malvern to Soton GW Gt Malvern to Westbury (Wilts) GW Hereford/Worcs to London Paddington GW London Paddington to Hereford/Worcs GW Soton/Warminster to Gt Malvern GW Worcs SH to London Paddington LM Birmingham New Street to Birmingham International LM Birmingham New Street to Coventry/London Euston LM Birmingham New Street to Hereford LM Birmingham New Street to Hereford - Early/evening LM Birmingham New Street to Liverpool Lime Street LM Birmingham New Street to Liverpool Lime Street 2 LM Birmingham New Street to London Euston LM Birmingham New Street to Rugeley TV - Fast LM Birmingham New Street to Shrewsbury LM Birmingham International to Birmingham New Street LM Coventry to Birmingham New Street LM Coventry to Nuneaton LM Crewe to London Euston via Nuneaton LM Cross City Line Bromsgrove to Lichfield Trent Valley LM Cross City Line Lichfield TV to Bromsgrove LM Cross City Line Lichfield TV to Redditch LM Cross City Line Redditch to Lichfield Trent Valley LM Great Malvern to Dorridge LM Great Malvern to Stratford LM Great Malvern to Stratford 2 LM Hereford to Birmingham New Street LM Hereford to Birmingham New Street - early morning LM Leamington to Great Malvern LM Leamington to Worcester LM Liverpool Lime Street to Birmingham New Street Line Name AM IP PM LM London Euston to Birmingham New Street LM London Euston to Crewe LM London Euston to Crewe via Nuneaton LM Northampton to Crewe via Nuneaton LM Nuneaton to Coventry LM Rugeley TV to Birmingham New Street - Fast LM Rugeley TV to Birmingham New Street - Slow LM Shrewsbury to Birmingham New Street LM Stourbridge Shuttle - Stourbridge Jn to Stourbridge Town LM Stourbridge Shuttle - Stourbridge Town to Stourbridge Jn LM Stratford to Great Malvern LM Stratford to Great Malvern 2 LM Walsall to Birmingham New Street LM Walsall-Birmingham New Street-Wolverhampton LM Wolverhampton-Birmingham New Street-Walsall LM Worcester to Leamington VT Holyhead to London Euston via Nuneaton VT Holyhead to London Euston via Rugby VT Liverpool LS to London Euston via Stafford VT London Euston to Liverpool LS via Stafford VT London Euston to Preston via Stafford VT Manc Picc to London Euston via Nuneaton VT Manc Picc to London Euston via Rugby VT Manc Picc to London Euston via Stafford VT Preston to London Euston via Tamworth VT West Coast - Birmingham New Street to Edinburgh VT West Coast - Birmingham New Street to Glasgow VT West Coast - Edinburgh to Birmingham New Street VT West Coast - Glasgow to Birmingham New Street VT West Coast - London Euston to Birmingham New Street/Wolverhampton VT West Coast - Wolverhampton to London Euston - early and afternoon VT West Coast - Wolverhampton/Birmingham New Street to London Euston XC Birmingham New Street to Derby XC Birmingham New Street to Leicester/Stansted Airport XC Birmingham New Street to Nottingham XC Cardiff to Nottingham XC North East - Edinburgh/Newcastle - Reading XC North East - Glasgow/Edinburgh to Bristol/Plymouth/Penzance XC North East - Glasgow/Edinburgh to Plymouth/Penzance XC North East - Plymouth to Edinburgh/Aberdeen/Dundee XC North East - Plymouth/Penzance to Edinburgh/Glasgow XC North East - Reading to Newcastle XC North East - Reading to Newcastle - Hourly Line Name AM IP PM XC North West - Bristol/Cardiff to Manchester XC North West - Manchester - Bristol/Exeter/Paignton XC North West - Manchester to Bristol/Cardiff XC North West - Manchester/Birmingham New Street to Reading/Bournemouth XC North West - Paignton/Bristol - Manchester XC North West - Southampton/Bournemouth to Manchester XC Nottingham to Birmingham New Street XC Nottingham to Cardiff XC Stansted Airport/Leicester to Birmingham New Street
BUS SERVICES MODELLED
No Operator Description AM IP PM 16 NXB Green Lane, HAMSTEAD RD to Markets, UPPER DEAN ST 16 NXB Markets, UPPER DEAN ST to Green Lane, HAMSTEAD RD 25 WCT Shopping Centre, ANCHOR RD to Heather Rd, HEATHER RD 25 WCT Heather Rd, HEATHER RD to Shopping Centre, ANCHOR RD 28 CEB Old Oscott Lane, DYAS RD to Wilton Rd, SUTTON NEW RD 28 CEB Wilton Rd, SUTTON NEW RD to Glenmead Rd, DYAS RD Coventry Preparatory School, DAVENPORT RD to HEATH END 1 CEC ROAD, Orkney Close HEATH END ROAD, Orkney Close to King Henry VIII School, 1 CEC SPENCER RD ST NICHOLAS DRIVE, Grasmere Cresc to King Henry VIII 3 CEC School,SPENCER RD Coventry Preparatory School, DAVENPORT RD to ST 3 CEC NICHOLAS DRIVE, Grasmere Cresc COVENTRY RD, Hinckley to Bablake Boys School,COUNDON 4 CEC RD Coventry Preparatory School,DAVENPORT RD to COVENTRY 4 CEC RD, Hinckley 66 599BUS Bus Station to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 66 599BUS Upper Parade to Bus Station The Village, SHIRLEY RD to Solihull Station Interchange, 30 CCN STATION APPROACH Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to The 30 CCN Village, SHIRLEY RD 36 SIL Alston Rd, BORDESLEY GREEN to Elf Garage, MOLE ST 36 SIL Elf Garage, MOLE ST to Alston Rd, BORDESLEY GREEN Argos, THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY to Gracechurch Shopping 66 NXB Centre, LOWER PARADE Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE to Argos, THE 66 NXB PRIORY QUEENSWAY CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to Art 68 AMN Gallery, LICHFIELD ST Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST to CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford 68 AMN Rd/Park Rd/Ringway Aston Station, LICHFIELD RD to Gracechurch Shopping Centre, 815 NXB LOWER PARADE 2A AMN Alder Drive to Hatherton Rd, HATHERTON RD 2A AMN Hatherton Rd, HATHERTON RD to Alder Drive 75E JOE War Memorial, OXFORD ST to Alfred Rd X12 MDC Burton On Trent - Sutton Coldfield via Lichfield NUNEATON BUS STATION to St Margaret's Bus 158 AFC Station__LFBUS St Margaret's Bus Station__LFBUS to NUNEATON BUS 158 AFC STATION 4A ALI Nelson Way to The Green Pool Meadow Bus Station,POOL MEADOW BUS STATION to 735 ALI ANSLEY ROAD, Park Lane 508 ALI Alliibone Close to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 11 AMG Church Street to Clifton Road 201 AMG NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION No Operator Description AM IP PM 207 AMG CHURCH RD, Hartshill Church to NUNEATON BUS STATION 208 AMG NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION 51 NXB Walsall - Birmingham via Great Barr 1 AMN Huntington - Walsall via Cannock, Bloxwich 1 TCV Tile Hill North – Walsgrave via Coventry 1 TEX Tettenhall Wood - Wolverhampton via Chapel Ash 211 AMG NUNEATON BUS STATION to Clifton Road 504 AMG Tesco to Stratford Tesco Bus Shelter 2 DIA Weoley Castle - Merry Hill via Halesowen BROOKSIDE, Oak & Black Dog to VICTORIA TERRACE, 548 AMG Leamington Church 69 AMG Shires Retail Park to Montrose Avenue 69 AMG Shires Retail Park to St. Michaels Close 69 AMG Sandy Lane Roundabout to Shires Retail Park B1 AMG All Saints Square to 2 DIA Weoley Castle - Merry Hill via Halesowen 2 TCV Fenside - Coventry via Cheylesmore B2 AMG to All Saints Square B3 AMG All Saints Square to All Saints Square B'ham Airport Bus Terminal, COMET ROAD to Airparks Shuttle AS1 AML Car Park 2 TCV Fenside – Coventry via Cheylesmore B'ham Airport Bus Terminal, COMET ROAD to Airparks Shuttle AS2 AML Car Park Airparks Shuttle Car Park to B'ham Airport Bus Terminal, COMET AS2 AML ROAD Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION to Gornal 282 AMN Wood Bus Station, GORNAL WOOD BUS STATION Gornal Wood Bus Station, GORNAL WOOD BUS STATION to 282 AMN Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION Shenstone Avenue, THE BROADWAY to Stourbridge Bus Station, 288 AMN STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION to 288 AMN Lavender Lane, SHENSTONE AVE Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION to 298 AMN Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION to 299 AMN Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION Telephone Exchange, JOHN ST to Wednesbury Bus Station, 327 AMN WEDNESBURY BUS STATION Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION to 327 AMN Telephone Exchange, JOHN ST Saddlers Centre, BRADFORD PL to Bilston Bus Station, 334 AMN BILSTON BUS STATION Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION to Saddlers Centre, 334 AMN BRADFORD PL 2 AMN Hednesford - Walsall via Cannock, Bloxwich 2 NXB Maypole – Birmingham via Warstock Leighswood Avenue, WALSALL WOOD RD to Walsall Bus 35E AMN Station, WALSALL BUS STATION 35E AMN Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Aldridge Post No Operator Description AM IP PM Office, NORTHGATE TAMWORTH , Corporation Street to TAMWORTH , Corporation 3 AMN Street 4 AMN Sacred Heart Church to VICTORIA RD, Colehill 4 AMN VICTORIA RD, Colehill to Sacred Heart Church 7 AMN New Street to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 7 AMN New Street to King Edward School 7 AMN New Street to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 7 AMN LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Octagon Centre 2 NXB Maypole - Birmingham via Warstock 7 AMN George & Dragon PH to Octagon Centre 5 AMN Kerria Centre to VICTORIA RD, Colehill 5 AMN VICTORIA RD, Colehill to Kerria Centre 7 AMN Tutehill to VICTORIA RD, Colehill 7 AMN VICTORIA RD, Colehill to Tutehill 8 AMN Stour to VICTORIA RD, Colehill 560 AMN High St, WOLVERHAMPTON RD to Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST 560 AMN Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST to High St, WOLVERHAMPTON RD 3 TCV Fenside - Coventry via Quinton Park 584 AMN TOM LANE, Royal Oak to Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST 584 AMN Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST to TOM LANE, Royal Oak 585 AMN Blundies Lane to Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST 585 AMN Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST to Blundies Lane 4 HAN Merry Hill - Harborne via Halesowen 4 TCV Arena Park - University Hospital via Coventry 586 AMN Market Hall, DUDLEY ST to Art Gallery, LICHFIELD ST Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION to 610 AMN Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Wednesbury Bus 610 AMN Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION to Ashtree Grove, 80 AMN CHARNWOOD CL Bull Lane, GREAT BRIDGE RD to Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON 80 AMN BUS STATION CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 810 AMN Salop St, SCHOOL ST Salop St, SCHOOL ST to CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford 810 AMN Rd/Park Rd/Ringway OAKS DRIVE, Remand Centre to CANNOCK BUS STATION, 810 AMN Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Walsall Bus 81 AMN Station, WALSALL BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to LICHFIELD 81 AMN BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Walsall Bus 991 AMN Station, WALSALL BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to LICHFIELD 991 AMN BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd X56 AMN OAK LANE, Ogley Hay Road to Carrs Lane, HIGH ST No Operator Description AM IP PM X56 AMN Carrs Lane, HIGH ST to OAK LANE, Ogley Hay Road 113 AMN Bus Station to Harp Inn 114 AMN Harp Inn to TELFORD BUS STATION 4 DIA West Bromwich - Walsall via Stone Cross 114 AMN Harp Inn to VICTORIA RD, The Archways VICTORIA RD, The Archways to INNAGE LANE,Northgate Car 114 AMN Park 114 AMN Bus Station to Harp Inn 5 TCV Arena Park - Tile Hill via Coventry 6 TCV Tanyard Farm - Little Heath via Coventry 11A AMN CHELL RD, Sainsburys to Tedder Road 11 AMN Tedder Road to CHELL RD, Sainsburys 24 AMN St Michaels Rd to RUGELEY Bus Station, Elmore Lane 24 AMN RUGELEY Bus Station, Elmore Lane to St Michaels Rd CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 25 AMN CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway 26 AMN Jeffrey Close to RUGELEY Bus Station, Elmore Lane 26 AMN RUGELEY Bus Station, Elmore Lane to Jeffrey Close 342 AMN Bus Station to Bus Station 428 AMN LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Bus Station 6 TCV Tanyard Farm - Little Heath via Coventry 428 AMN Bus Station to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 7 TCV Coventry - Brownshill Green via Coundon 8 TCV Woodway Park - Coventry Station via Coventry 428 AMN Bus Station to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 436 AMN Bus Station to BRIDGE STREET, Bridgnorth Low Town 436 AMN BRIDGE STREET, Bridgnorth Low Town to Bus Station 481 AMN TELFORD BUS STATION to Gaol Square 481 AMN Gaol Square to TELFORD BUS STATION LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to CANNOCK BUS 60 AMN STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 60 AMN LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 74 AMN University University to CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park 74 AMN Rd/Ringway CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 75 AMN University University to CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park 75 AMN Rd/Ringway North Warwickshire College to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, 765 AMN Birmingham Rd 8 NXB Woodway Park - Coventry Station via Coventry 9 TCV Coventry Station - Woodway Park via Coventry 9 AMN Bentley - Walsall via Darlaston, Pleck STATION STREET, Atherstone Bus Station to TAMWORTH , 765 AMN Corporation Street No Operator Description AM IP PM LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to North 765 AMN Warwickshire College LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Racemeadow 765 AMN Primary School 785 AMN Stores to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 785 AMN LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Stores 9 AMN Bentley - Walsall via Darlaston, Pleck 9 NXB Stourbridge - Birmingham via Halesowen 785 AMN LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Stores 813 AMN VICTORIA RD, Colehill to Octagon Centre 813 AMN New Street to VICTORIA RD, Colehill 81 AMN Bus Station to TELFORD BUS STATION 81 AMN Bus Station to Bus Station 9 NXB Stourbridge - Birmingham via Halesowen 10 AMN Perton - Wolverhampton via Compton 10 TCV Bell Green - Eastern Green via Coventry 11 TCV Leamington - Coventry via Kenilworth, University 825 AMN LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to University 825 AMN University to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 835 AMN Guildhall Shopping Centre to Hudson Drive 835 AMN Hudson Drive to Guildhall Shopping Centre 841 AMN Bus Station to Weston Road High School 11 TCV Leamington - Coventry via Kenilworth, University 11 NXB Underhill – Wolverhampton via Fallings Park 12 TCV Warwick University - Coventry via Earlsdon 841 AMN Weston Road High School to Bus Station 96 AMN Bus Station to TELFORD BUS STATION 13 TCV Willenhall - Whitmore Park via Coventry 96 AMN Bus Station to Bus Station 13 TCV Willenhall - Whitmore Park via Coventry 96 AMN Bus Station to Bus Station 99A AMN Bus Station to BRIDGE STREET, Bridgnorth Low Town 99 AMN Shops to TELFORD BUS STATION 14 NXB Chelmsley Wood - Birmingham via Alum Rock 99 AMN Shops to TELFORD BUS STATION 99 AMN Bus Station to BRIDGE STREET, Bridgnorth Low Town 99 AMN Bus Station to Shops LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to CANNOCK BUS X60 AMN STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to X60 AMN LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 26 AMNCAN CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway 14 NXB Chelmsley Wood - Birmingham via Alum Rock 88 AMNTLF New Road Jct to TELFORD BUS STATION 88 AMNTLF Bus Station to New Road Jct No Operator Description AM IP PM 16 CLL Essington - Bloxwich via Coppice Farm,Broad Lane 16 SMR Stratford - Coventry via Warwick, Kenilworth 16 TCV Keresley - University Hospital via Coventry 17 NXB Tile Cross - Birmingham via Yew Tree 18 AMN Broad Lane North - Wolverhampton via Wednesfield 18 TCV Bartley Green - Yardley Wood via Cotteridge 19 AMN Wolverhampton - Walsall via Bloxwich 934 ANXB Asda Queslett to Carrs Lane, HIGH ST 934 ANXB Carrs Lane, HIGH ST to Asda Queslett 19 TCV Westwood Business Park - Coventry via Canley 20 AMN Oldbury - Bearwood via Brandhall 20 TCV Bedworth - Coventry via Foleshill Road 21 AMN Oldbury - Bearwood via Londonderry 308 AST The Village to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 21 TCV Willenhall - Wood End via Coventry 308 AST CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to St Peter's Drive 310 AST The Village to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 310 AST CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to The Village 382 AST Pershore High School to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to CROWNGATE, 382 AST Worcester Bus Station 382 AST CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Pershore High School 382 AST CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Coach House 417 AST Martins Way to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 417 AST CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Martins Way 540 AST Royal Well Bus Station to Bus Station 540 AST Prince Henry's High School to Royal Well Bus Station 540 AST Bus Station to Royal Well Bus Station Meldon Drive, ROCKET POOL DR to Wolverhampton Bus 530 BAN Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 530 BAN Queen Street to Humphries Crescent, ROCKET POOL DR 535 BAN Bakers_way to Pipers Row 535 BAN Pipers Row to Bakers_way Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION to Wolverhampton 545 BAN Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 545 BAN Queen Street to Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION 634 BAN Bakers_way to King St, PRINCESS ST 634 BAN Pipers Row to Bakers_way 133 BCC Ombersley Street East to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 133 BCC KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to Ombersley Street East OMBERSLEY STREET EAST, Droitwich Spa to BROMSGROVE 141 BCC BUS STATION, Market Street BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street to Ombersley 141 BCC Street East 356 BCC Stock turn to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 356 BCC CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Stock Turn No Operator Description AM IP PM 357 BCC Ombersley Street East to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 50 BCC Salters Lane Terminus to REDDITCH BUS STATION 50 BCC REDDITCH BUS STATION to Salters Lane Terminus 51 BCC REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 57 BCC REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 58 BCC REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 60 BCC REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 61 BCC Sainsbury's Store_B to Sainsbury's Store_B 64 BCC REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 70 BCC REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 140 CBN St Margaret's Bus Station__LFBUS to NORTH STREET, Stand F 140 CBN Church Street to St Margaret's Bus Station__LFBUS NUNEATON BUS STATION to HINCKLEY BUS STATION, 86 CBN Waterloo Road HINCKLEY BUS STATION, Waterloo Road to NUNEATON BUS 86 CBN STATION Redicap Hill, LISURES DRIVE to The Square Peg, 108 CCN CORPORATION ST The Square Peg, CORPORATION ST to Redicap Hill, LISURES 108 CCN DRIVE Dwellings School, QUINTON RD WEST to Colmore Row, 10H CCN COLMORE ROW Colmore Row, COLMORE ROW to Dwellings School, QUINTON 10H CCN RD WEST Dwellings School, QUINTON RD WEST to Colmore Row, 10 CCN COLMORE ROW Colmore Row, COLMORE ROW to Dwellings School, QUINTON 10 CCN RD WEST Asda Superstore, ASDA SUPERSTORE GROUNDS to 119 CCN Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE to Asda 119 CCN Superstore, ASDA SUPERSTORE GROUNDS 16 CCN Green Lane, HAMSTEAD RD to Markets, UPPER DEAN ST 16 CCN Markets, UPPER DEAN ST to Green Lane, HAMSTEAD RD Cumberford Avenue, TILE CROSS RD to Albert St, MOOR ST 17 CCN QUEENSWAY Albert St, MOOR ST QUEENSWAY to Cumberford Avenue, TILE 17 CCN CROSS RD Edenhurst Rd, LANNACOMBE RD to Maypole Shops, 19 CCN ALCESTER RD SOUTH Maypole Shops, ALCESTER RD SOUTH to Edenhurst Rd, 19 CCN LANNACOMBE RD The Fox & Goose, WASHWOOD HEATH RD to Six Ways Island, 25 CCN SUTTON NEW RD Six Ways Island, SUTTON NEW RD to The Fox & Goose, 25 CCN WASHWOOD HEATH RD 22 WCT Butts - Paddock Circular via Walsall 22 NXB Kitwell - Birmingham via Harborne 42 CCN Lilley Lane, COFTON RD to City Boundary, TESSALL LANE 23 AMN White Horse Road - Bloxwich via Brownhills 42 CCN Balaams Wood Drive to Lilley Lane, COFTON RD No Operator Description AM IP PM 50 CCN Druids Heath, BELLS LANE to Selfridges, MOOR STREET 23 AMN White Horse Road - Bloxwich via Brownhills 50 CCN Selfridges, MOOR STREET to Druids Heath, BELLS LANE Wilton Rd, SUTTON NEW RD to Wolseley Close, LANCHESTER 53 CCN WAY Wolseley Close, LANCHESTER WAY to Wilton Rd, SUTTON 53 CCN NEW RD 600 CCN George Rd, NORTH PARK RD to George Rd, NORTH PARK RD Kingstanding Library, KINGSTANDING CIRCLE to Shopping 75 CCN Centre, ANCHOR RD Shopping Centre, ANCHOR RD to Kingstanding Library, 75 CCN KINGSTANDING CIRCLE Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to Pool 82 CCN Meadow Bus Station,POOL MEADOW BUS STATION Pool Meadow Bus Station,POOL MEADOW BUS STATION to 82 CCN Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH 96 CCN The Wheatsheaf, COVENTRY RD to The Village, SHIRLEY RD 96 CCN The Village, SHIRLEY RD to The Wheatsheaf, COVENTRY RD The Fox & Goose, WASHWOOD HEATH RD to Cooksey Rd, 98 CCN JENKINS ST Green Lane, COVENTRY RD to The Fox & Goose, WASHWOOD 98 CCN HEATH RD 99 CCN Lea Village Island, GRESSEL LANE to The Village, SHIRLEY RD 99 CCN The Village, SHIRLEY RD to Lea Village Island, GRESSEL LANE Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to Solihull S11 CCN Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to Solihull S15 CCN Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH Balsall Common Island, STATION RD to Solihull Town Centre, S2A CCN POPLAR RD Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD to Balsall Common Island, S2A CCN STATION RD Balsall Common Island, STATION RD to Solihull Town Centre, S2C CCN POPLAR RD Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD to Balsall Common Island, S2C CCN STATION RD Dorridge Rail Station, STATION APPROACH to Solihull Town S2 CCN Centre, POPLAR RD Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD to Dorridge Rail Station, S2 CCN STATION APPROACH Box Trees Rd, STRATFORD RD to Solihull Station Interchange, S3 CCN STATION APPROACH Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to Box Trees S3 CCN Rd, STRATFORD RD The Saxon, CHESWICK WAY to Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR S4 CCN RD Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD to Cheswick Green School, S4 CCN CHESWICK WAY X30 CCN Sports Centre, FAIRFAX ST to Ansty Park, ANSTY PARK X30 CCN Ansty Park,ANSTY PARK to Sports Centre,FAIRFAX ST X31 CCN Sports Centre,FAIRFAX ST to Ansty Park,ANSTY PARK 23 DIA Portobello - Wednesbury via Bilston Coventry Rail Station,STATION SQ. to Sports Centre,FAIRFAX X31 CCN ST No Operator Description AM IP PM X31 CCN Ansty Park,ANSTY PARK to Sports Centre,FAIRFAX ST LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to LICHFIELD BUS 20 CCN STATION, Birmingham Rd LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to LICHFIELD BUS 21 CCN STATION, Birmingham Rd LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to LICHFIELD BUS 23 CCN STATION, Birmingham Rd STATION STREET, Atherstone Bus Station to STATION 762 CCN STREET, Atherstone Bus Station STATION STREET, Atherstone Bus Station to STATION 763 CCN STREET, Atherstone Bus Station STATION STREET, Atherstone Bus Station to STATION 764 CCN STREET, Atherstone Bus Station STATION STREET, Atherstone Bus Station to Racemeadow 764 CCN Primary School LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to LICHFIELD BUS 22 CCNLCH STATION, Birmingham Rd Regents Park Road to Halesowen Bus Station, HALESOWEN 7 CEB BUS STATION Halesowen Bus Station, HALESOWEN BUS STATION to Regents 7 CEB Park Road Halesowen Bus Station, HALESOWEN BUS STATION to 7 CEB BROMSGROVE RD B4551, The Sun West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 19 CEB to Oldbury Interchange, HALESOWEN ST Oldbury Interchange, HALESOWEN ST to West Bromwich Bus 19 CEB Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION Perry Barr One Stop, BIRCHFIELD RD to Bearwood Bus Station, 61 CEB BEARWOOD BUS STATION 23 NXB Woodgate – Birmingham via Harborne 23 TCV Allesley Park – Coventry via Chapelfields Bearwood Bus Station, BEARWOOD BUS STATION to Perry Barr 61 CEB One Stop, BIRCHFIELD RD 696 CEB Reed Square, TANGMERE DR to Reed Square, TANGMERE DR Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to West Bromwich 74A CEB Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 74A CEB to Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION Redruth Rd, LISKEARD RD to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL 74 CEB BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Redruth Rd, 74 CEB LISKEARD RD STATION RD, Whitacre Heath to Gracechurch Shopping Centre, 757 CEB LOWER PARADE STATION RD, The Swan to Bishop Walsh School, WYLDE 757 CEB GREEN RD Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE to COLESHILL 757 CEB RD, Shustoke Village Green Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE to STATION 757 CEB RD, Whitacre Heath Cranbourne Rd, KINGSTANDING RD to Walsall Bus Station, 76 CEB WALSALL BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Cardinal 76 CEB Wiseman School, OLD OSCOTT HILL Birmingham International Station, STATION WAY (NEC 777 CEB GROUNDS) to HAMS HALL SPINE RD, Faraday Avenue No Operator Description AM IP PM HAMS HALL SPINE RD, Faraday Avenue to Birmingham 777 CEB International Station, STATION WAY (NEC GROUNDS) Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE to The 78 CEB Queslett, ALDRIDGE RD The Queslett, ALDRIDGE RD to Gracechurch Shopping Centre, 78 CEB LOWER PARADE Chester Rd, HARDWICK RD to Six Ways Island, SUTTON NEW 88 CEB RD Six Ways Island, SUTTON NEW RD to Chester Rd, HARDWICK 88 CEB RD Manor Rd Post Office, LONDONDERRY LANE to Town Hall, 89 CEL PARADISE ST Town Hall, PARADISE ST to Manor Rd Post Office, 89 CEL LONDONDERRY LANE Bus Mall, THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY to CHELMSLEY 55 CLA INTERCHANGE, CHELMSLEY CIRCLE CHELMSLEY INTERCHANGE, CHELMSLEY CIRCLE to Bus 55 CLA Mall, THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY Broad St, FOLESHILL RD to Cardinal Wiseman Sch, POTTERS 22S COU GREEN RD 701 COU The Chilterns, WINSFORD AVE to 701 COU to The Chilterns, WINSFORD AVE Old Rheumatology, UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL to Old 704 COU Rheumatology, UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL Caludon Centre, HOSPITAL ROADS to Caludon Centre, 704 COU HOSPITAL ROADS University Hospital, UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL to Scafell Close, 801 COU NOD RISE Bishopton Close, MOUNT NOD WAY to University Hospital, 801 COU UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL Northern Park & Ride, AUSTIN DRIVE to Northern Park & Ride, PRN COU AUSTIN DRIVE 768 COU NUNEATON BUS STATION to Bede Village 768 COU Bede Village to NUNEATON BUS STATION Saddlers Centre, BRADFORD PL to Saddlers Centre, 335 CPE BRADFORD PL BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street to 97 CRF BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street to 98 CRF BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street 7 CRS NUNEATON BUS STATION to Market Street 7 CRS Market Street to NUNEATON BUS STATION BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street to 93 CWY BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street to 99 CWY BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 19 DIA to Great Bridge Bus Station, GREAT BRIDGE BUS STATION 23 TCV Allesley Park - Coventry via Chapelfields Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION to Dudley 226 DIA Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Merry Hill Bus 226 DIA Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION Bus Mall, RUSSELLS HALL HOSPITAL to Wolverhampton Bus 22 DIA Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION No Operator Description AM IP PM Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 22 DIA to Bus Mall, RUSSELLS HALL HOSPITAL Cradley Heath Interchange, CRADLEY HEATH INTERCHANGE 240 DIA to Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION to 240 DIA Cradley Heath Interchange, CRADLEY HEATH INTERCHANGE 4H DIA Highfield Lane, ANDREW RD to Newport St, BRADFORD PL Newport St, BRADFORD PL to Halesowen Bus Station, 4H DIA HALESOWEN BUS STATION Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION to Newport 4M DIA St, BRADFORD PL Newport St, BRADFORD PL to Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY 4M DIA HILL BUS STATION Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION to West Bromwich 43 DIA Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 43 DIA to Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION Meldon Drive, ROCKET POOL DR to Wolverhampton Bus 530 DIA Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION to West 64 DIA Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 64 DIA to Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION Lea Green Avenue to Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS 24 DIADUD STATION Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION to Lea Green 24 DIADUD Avenue 24 DIAWAL Millfield School, FULLELOVE RD to St Johns Church, HIGH ST 24 DIAWAL St Johns Church, HIGH ST to Millfield School, FULLELOVE RD 350 DUD Bull's Head to Little London 350 DUD Little London to REDDITCH BUS STATION 350 DUD Little London to Crabbs Cross 384 DUD Coach House to Church Saddlers Centre, BRADFORD PL to Bilston Bus Station, 334 ECS BILSTON BUS STATION Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION to Saddlers Centre, 334 ECS BRADFORD PL 24 NXB Woodgate Valley North - Birmingham via Harborne 25 NXB Wolverhampton - Bilston via Wednesfield Longbridge Station, LONGBRIDGE LANE to REDDITCH BUS 145 FMR STATION Longbridge Station, LONGBRIDGE LANE to REDDITCH BUS 145 FMR STATION 145 FMR Longbridge Station, LONGBRIDGE LANE to Charford Road_B REDDITCH BUS STATION to Longbridge Station, LONGBRIDGE 145 FMR LANE REDDITCH BUS STATION to Longbridge Station, LONGBRIDGE 145 FMR LANE REDDITCH BUS STATION to Smallbrook Queensway, 146 FMR SMALLBROOK QUEENSWAY Smallbrook Queensway, SMALLBROOK QUEENSWAY to 146 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION 5A FMR Town Hall_B to Town Hall_B 5B FMR Hayes Road to Town Hall_B No Operator Description AM IP PM COMBERTON HILL, Kidderminster Station to COMBERTON 2 FMR HILL, Kidderminster Station 3 FMR Rail Stations Forecourt to Rail Stations Forecourt 26 WCT Goscote - Walsall via Forest Estate 26 NXB Bilston - Wolverhampton via Goldthorn Park 27 NXB Maypole - Hawkesley via Kings Heath, Northfield 30 CMT Coventry - Lentons Lane Circular 30 DIA Acocks Green - Solihull via Olton 30 WCT Darlaston - Bilston via Moxley 31 NXB Solihull - Birmingham via Acocks Green 31 NXB Solihull - Birmingham via Acocks Green 32 AMN Brownhills - Hednesford via Cannock 32 NXB Wolverhampton - Northwood Park Circular 33 AMN Walsall - Rugeley via Brownhills, Hednesford 3 FMR Town Hall to King's Arms 5 FMR Town Hall_B to Town Hall_B KIDDERMINSTER,Exchange Street to 10 FMR KIDDERMINSTER,Exchange Street 10 FMR KIDDERMINSTER,Exchange Street to Turnstone Road KIDDERMINSTER,Exchange Street to 10 FMR KIDDERMINSTER,Exchange Street 142 FMR GOLDEN CROSS LANE,Ash Drive to REDDITCH BUS STATION 142 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to BRACES LANE,Marlbrook Hotel 247 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to Bus Station 247 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to College of Horticulture 247 FMR College of Horticulture to REDDITCH BUS STATION 247 FMR Bus Station to REDDITCH BUS STATION 292 FMR Compasses Inn to Rail Stations Forecourt 292 FMR Talbot Inn to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 292 FMR Rail Stations Forecourt to Church 33 AMN Walsall - Rugeley via Brownhills, Hednesford CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus 294 FMR Station KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus 294 FMR Station KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus 295 FMR Station CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus 295 FMR Station 303 FMR KIDDERMINSTER,Bewdley Rd,Hospital to Sixth Form College 303 FMR Sixth Form College to General Hospital CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to CROWNGATE, 30 FMR Worcester Bus Station 31A FMR University Gates to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 31B FMR Main Entrance to Main Entrance 31C FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Students Union 31 FMR Main Entrance to Main Entrance No Operator Description AM IP PM 34 NXB Stowlawn - Walsall via Bilston, Darlaston 32A FMR Main Entrance to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 32A FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Main Entrance 32 FMR Nash Turn to Nash Turn 35 AMN Lichfield - Walsall via Druids Heath, Aldridge 35 NXB Hawkesley - Birmingham via Kings Heath 37 NXB Solihull - Birmingham via Acocks Green CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to CROWNGATE, 33 FMR Worcester Bus Station 362 FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Shelter 363 FMR Shelter to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 363 FMR Dyson Perrins School to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 363 FMR Shelter to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 363 FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Shelter 363 FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Dyson Perrins School 44A FMR Graham Road to Wild Wood Drive 44A FMR Wild Wood Drive to Church Street 37 NXB Solihull – Birmingham via Acocks Green 38 WMS Selly Oak - Northfield via Cotteridge 38 NXB Wednesbury - Walsall via Darlaston, Manor Hospital 39 WMS Longbridge - Worlds End via Northfield 39 NXB Wolverhampton - Walsall via Bilston, Darlaston 40 DIA Wednesbury - West Bromwich via Stone Cross 41 WMS Coventry - Stonehouse Estate Circular The Mal, UNION ST to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS 41 NXB STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to The Mal, 41 NXB UNION ST 44C FMR Graham Road to Wild Wood Drive 44C FMR Wild Wood Drive to Graham Road 44 FMR Dyson Perrins School to Wild Wood Drive 44 FMR Wild Wood Drive to Dyson Perrins School 51 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 550 FMR Post Office to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 550 FMR Bus Station to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 550 FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Post Office 42 DIA Dudley - West Bromwich via Great Bridge 550 FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Bus Station Prince Henry's High School to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus 551 FMR Station CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Prince Henry's High 551 FMR School 551 FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Bus Station 557 FMR CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Royal Arcade 55 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 56 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION No Operator Description AM IP PM 57 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 58 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 66 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 67 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION 68 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to REDDITCH BUS STATION X3 FMR REDDITCH BUS STATION to King's Arms X3 FMR Areley King's Post Office to REDDITCH BUS STATION Ring Rd, DARLINGTON ST to Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS 558 GBC STATION Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Ring Rd, 558 GBC DARLINGTON ST 64 GBC Great Park, PARK WAY to Harborne Junction 64 GBC Harborne Junction to Great Park, PARK WAY 101 GHW Oaklands to No.60 101 GHW No.60 to Oaklands 16 GRS Green Lane, HAMSTEAD RD to Markets, UPPER DEAN ST 16 GRS Markets, UPPER DEAN ST to Green Lane, HAMSTEAD RD 600 GRS George Rd, NORTH PARK RD to George Rd, NORTH PARK RD Priory Hospital, PRIORY RD to Yew Tree Lane, DAMSON 809 GTC PARKWAY Yew Tree Lane, DAMSON PARKWAY to Priory Hospital, PRIORY 809 GTC RD Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Cradley Heath 124 HAN Interchange, CRADLEY HEATH INTERCHANGE Cradley Heath Interchange, CRADLEY HEATH INTERCHANGE 124 HAN to Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION WHITE HILL, Rose & Crown to Stourbridge Bus Station, 227 HAN STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION to 227 HAN WHITE HILL, Rose & Crown TAMWORTH , Corporation Street to TAMWORTH , Corporation 82 HBT Street TAMWORTH , Corporation Street to TAMWORTH , Corporation 84A HBT Street TAMWORTH , Corporation Street to TAMWORTH , Corporation 84C HBT Street H3 HCB Stratford Tesco Bus Shelter to Meon Road Junction 9A HOC Gaymore Road to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 9A HOC Kinver Lane to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 9A HOC Gaymore Road to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 9A HOC KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to Bulls Head 9A HOC KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to Kinver Lane 9 HOC Kinver Lane to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 9H HOC KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to Kinver Lane Acocks Green Village, WESTLEY RD to Acocks Green Village, 11A JOE WESTLEY RD S7 JOH Wythall_Church to Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD S7 JOH Inkford_ to Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD S7 JOH Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD to Wythall_Church No Operator Description AM IP PM 42 TCV Coundon - Coventry via Moseley Avenue Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to West Bromwich 42 NXB Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION S7 JOH Solihull Town Centre, POPLAR RD to Wythall_Church REDDITCH BUS STATION to BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, 183 JOH Market Street 21 JOH Corn Exchange to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 21 JOH BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to Town Hall 222 JOH Manor Road to Hunts Road West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 42 NXB to Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION 43 NXB Bilston - West Bromwich via Great Bridge 222 JOH Manor Road to Hunts Road BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to BRIDGE STREET, 229 JOH Stratford-Upon-Avon 44 NXB Tipton - West Bromwich via Great Bridge 44 NXB Tipton - West Bromwich via Great Bridge WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon to WOOD STREET, 229 JOH Stratford-On-Avon 22 JOH Corn Exchange to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 22 JOH BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to Town Hall 22 JOH BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to Town Hall 23A JOH Pettiphers Garage to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 23 JOH BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to Pettiphers Garage 23 JOH The Park to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 269 JOH Bus Station to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 269 JOH Church to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 269 JOH WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon to Bus Station 270 JOH Bus Station to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 46 NXB Six Ways Aston, VICTORIA RD to Snow Hill Station, LIVERY ST 46 NXB Snow Hill Station, LIVERY ST to Six Ways Aston, VICTORIA RD 47 WMS Coventry - Cannon Park Circular 48 SMR Atherstone/Leicester - Coventry via Nuneaton 270 JOH Bus Station to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 270 JOH WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon to Bus Station 48 SMR Atherstone/Leicester - Coventry via Nuneaton 27 JOH New Road to WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to WOOD STREET, 27 JOH Stratford-On-Avon 27 JOH WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon to Headland Rise BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to WOOD STREET, 27 JOH Stratford-On-Avon P&R JOH BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to Park & Ride P&R JOH Park & Ride to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon L1 LCM Church Street to Phone Box L3 LCM Phone Box to RUGBY, Clifton Rd 21 LMS CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to CROWNGATE, No Operator Description AM IP PM Worcester Bus Station CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to CROWNGATE, 22 LMS Worcester Bus Station 39 LMS Fowler Avenue to Bromwich Lane 39 LMS Bull Ring to The Chequers Inn 39 LMS Field Road to Bromwich Lane 423 LMS Post Office to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 423 LMS Stocks Road Junction to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 423 LMS CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Post Office 423 LMS CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Stocks Road Junction 564 LMS Coach House to Pershore High School 564 LMS Coach House to Royal Arcade 565 LMS Royal Arcade to Coach House 566 LMS Pershore High School to Royal Arcade 48 SMR Atherstone/Leicester – Coventry via Nuneaton 566 LMS Pershore High School to Pershore High School WOLVERHAMPTON RD, Cheslyn Hay High School to THE 110 MCT AVENUE, Featherstone Community Centre OAKS DRIVE, Remand Centre to CANNOCK BUS STATION, 110 MCT Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway 90 MDA Cobnall Road to BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street to 90 MDA BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street SCHOOL LANE, Southmead Drive to STOURBRIDGE ROAD, 91 MDA Catshill PO 48 SMR Atherstone/Leicester – Coventry via Nuneaton BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street to 93 MDA BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street 48 NXB West Bromwich - Bartley Green via Bearwood 50 GBC Maypole - Birmingham via Moseley 53 NXB Merry Hill - West Bromwich via Bearwood 54 DIA Worlds End - West Bromwich via Smethwick Sycamore Road to CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park 23A MIY Rd/Ringway CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 23A MIY Sycamore Road HEDNESFORD BUS STATION, Victoria Street to CANNOCK 23 MIY BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 23 MIY HEDNESFORD BUS STATION, Victoria Street LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to CANNOCK BUS 62A MIY STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 62A MIY LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to CANNOCK BUS 62 MIY STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway CANNOCK BUS STATION, Stafford Rd/Park Rd/Ringway to 62 MIY LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 901 MIY Cornfield Drive to LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd 901 MIY LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to Cornfield Drive No Operator Description AM IP PM 54 DIA Worlds End - West Bromwich via Smethwick 55 DIA Smethwick - Brandhall via Londonderry 55 SMR Hinckley - Keresley/Coventry via Bedworth 55 NXB Chelmsley Wood - Birmingham via Ward End Archbishop Ilsley School, VICTORIA RD to Acocks Green Village, 11C NXB WESTLEY RD 56 DIA The Rising Sun, WATLING ST to Carrs Lane, HIGH ST 56 DIA Carrs Lane, HIGH ST to The Rising Sun, WATLING ST 56 SMR Nuneaton - Coventry via Bulkington 57 AMN Bilston - Wolverhampton via Willenhall, Ettingshall 57 SMR Hinckley - Coventry via Nuneaton 58 NXB Station Rd, STATION RD to Pavillions, MOOR ST QUEENSWAY 58 NXB Pavillions, MOOR ST QUEENSWAY to Station Rd, STATION RD 60 NXB Cranes Park - Birmingham via Coventry Road Holly Hill Shopping Centre, ARDEN RD to New Street Station, ST. 61 NXB MARTINS QUEENSWAY New Street Station, ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY to Holly Hill 61 NXB Shopping Centre, ARDEN RD 61 WMS Ward Rd, HONOR AVE to 61 WMS Queen Street to Himley Crescent, EDNAM RD 62 NXB Finchfield - Wolverhampton via Compton 63 NXB Frankley - Birmingham via Bristol Road 63 AMN Fordhouses - Bradmore via Wolverhampton 64 AMN Bradmore - Wolverhampton via Penn Fields 65 NXB Perry Common - Birmingham via Short Heath 65 DIA Wood Estate - Darlaston via Wednesbury 66 AMN West Bromwich - Stone Cross via Wigmore Farm 67 NXB Castle Vale - Birmingham via Tyburn Rd 67 DIA Yew Tree - Wednesbury via Friar Park 69 NXB Walsall - Wolverhampton via New Invention 69 JOH Brandwood Park - Shirley via Kings Heath 70 NXB Bloxwich - Walsall via Reedswood 70 AMN Cannock – Wolverhampton via Cheslyn Hay 71 NXB Sutton Coldfield - Solihull via Chelmsley Wood Blackheath Market, LONG LANE to Blaze Park Terminus, 205 NXB ENVILLE RD Blaze Park Terminus, ENVILLE RD to Blackheath Market, LONG 205 NXB LANE 71 CLA Chelmsley Wood - Solihull Stn via Marston Green 71 SUT Chelmsley Wood - Solihull via Marston Green 72 NXB Solihull - Birmingham via Chelmsley Wood 73 NXB Solihull - Birmingham via Heartlands Hospital Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION to Dudley 243 NXB Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Merry Hill Bus 243 NXB Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION 74 NXB Dudley - Birmingham via West Bromwich No Operator Description AM IP PM 74 COU Nuneaton – Coventry via Bramcote, Wolvey 75 NXB Wednesbury - Birmingham via West Bromwich Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION to 255 NXB Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 255 NXB to Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION Stourbridge Bus Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION to 257 NXB Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Stourbridge Bus 257 NXB Station, STOURBRIDGE BUS STATION 76 NXB QE Hospital - Solihull via Kings Heath 76 AMN Stafford - Wolverhampton via Penkridge, Brewood 77 NXB Sutton Coldfield - Walsall via Streetly 79 NXB Wolverhampton - West Bromwich via Bilston 80 SAT West Bromwich - Birmingham via Smethwick 81 NXB Merry Hill - Wolverhampton via Dudley, Coseley 83 NXB West Bromwich - Birmingham via Smethwick 84 NXB Hawkesley - Q.E.Hospital via Cotteridge 85 COU Univ Hospital - Coventry Station via Coventry 86 SMR Rugby - Coventry via Lawford Green The Eagle, CRESWELL CRES to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL 301 NXB BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to The Eagle, 301 NXB CRESWELL CRES 87 NXB Dudley – Birmingham via Oldbury, Smethwick 87 JOH Berkswell - Coventry via Cannon Park 88 AMN Stafford - Perton via Penkridge, Codsall 91 WMS Chelmsley Wd - International Stn via Marston Grn 94 CLA Chelmsley Wood - Birmingham via Ward End 97 NXB Airport - Birmingham via Chelmsley Wood, Meadway 98 NXB Rubery – Birmingham via Northfield, QE Hospital 99 NXB Halesowen - Birmingham via Harborne, QE Hospital 101 NXB Oxhill Road - Birmingham via Jewellery Quarter 110 AMN Tamworth - Birmingham via Sutton Coldfield 112 AMN Lichfield - Sutton Coldfield via Shenstone 115 AMN Tamworth – Coleshill via Kingsbury 115 NXB Sutton Coldfield - Birmingham via Walmley 116 AMN Tamworth - Birmingham via Kingsbury 120 NXB Dudley - Birmingham via Oldbury, Londonderry 121 NXB West Bromwich - Dudley via Oldbury, Oakham 122 DIA Oldbury - Bearwood via Langley Green 125 GHW Bridgnorth - Stourbridge via Kidderminster 126 NXB Wolverhampton - Birmingham via Dudley, Bearwood 127 NXB Blackheath - Birmingham via Warley 128 NXB Oldbury - Birmingham via Warley 129 NXB West Bromwich - Birmingham via Warley No Operator Description AM IP PM 50 NXB Druids Heath, BELLS LANE to Selfridges, MOOR STREET 140 NXB Dudley - Birmingham via Blackheath 141 NXB Merry Hill - Birmingham via Halesowen 142 DIA Halesowen - Stourbridge via Hasbury 50 NXB Selfridges, MOOR STREET to Druids Heath, BELLS LANE 144 FMR Worcester - Birmingham via Bromsgrove 167 WMS Erdington - Sutton Coldfield via Walmley 168 WMS Erdington - Sutton Coldfield via Walmley 192 GHW Kidderminster - Halesowen via Hagley 202 DIA Halesowen – Bromsgrove via Rednal 208 HAN Merry Hill - Dudley via Old Hill, Portway 213 AMN Brierley Hill - Fatherless Barn Circular 217 AMN Halesowen - Merry Hill via Cradley Heath 222 NXB Merry Hill - Dudley via Russells Hall Hospital 223 AMN Bilston - Dudley via Sedgley,Gornal Wood 224 AMN Bilston – Sedgley via Ettingshall, Woodcross 226 HAN Merry Hill - Dudley via Kingswinford 228 HAN Kinver – Brockmoor via Merry Hill 229 AMN Dudley - Bilston via Sedgley, Coseley 231 HAN Blackheath - Halesowen via Olive Lane Estate 241 NXB Halesowen - Dudley via Blackheath 244 NXB Hayley Green - Dudley via Halesowen 246 NXB Dudley - Stourbridge via Brierley Hill 250 HAN Stourbridge - Brockmoor via Merry Hill circular 251 HAN Stourbridge - Merry Hill via Brockmoor circular 256 NXB Stourbridge - Wolverhampton via Kingswinford 267 HAN Kingswinford - Stourbridge via Wordsley 276 NXB Wollaston - Dudley via Stourbridge, Merry Hill Tyburn Island, KINGSBURY RD to Six Ways Island, SUTTON 638 NXB NEW RD Six Ways Island, SUTTON NEW RD to Jaguar Works, CHESTER 638 NXB RD 287 HAN Merry Hill - Stourbridge via Amblecote Eastlake Close, COLLINGWOOD DR to Hamstead Village, 651 NXB HAMSTEAD RD Hamstead Village, HAMSTEAD RD to Hillingford Avenue, 651 NXB BEACON RD 289 NXB Old Hill - West Bromwich via Blackheath 296 HAN Brockmoor - Stourbridge via Merry Hill 297 NXB Stickley Estate – Halesowen via Merry Hill 301 DIA Mossley - Walsall via Bloxwich, Leamore 302 NXB Lower Farm - Walsall via Bloxwich, Leamore 303 DIA Bilston - County Bridge via Willenhall 311 NXB Walsall - Dudley via Wednesbury 313 NXB Walsall - Dudley via Wednesbury No Operator Description AM IP PM 318 HAN Bromsgrove - Stourbridge via Belbroughton 326 DIA Bilston - Bloxwich via Willenhall 335 NXB Walsall - Alumwell via Manor Hospital 336 NXB Walsall - Alumwell via Manor Hospital 425 WMS Scott Arms - Hamstead via Longleat 516 AMN Pattingham - Wolverhampton via Wightwick 516 SMR Hockley Heath - Warwickshire College 517 AMN Pattingham - Wolverhampton via Perton 529 NXB Wolverhampton – Walsall via Willenhall 530 AMN Rocket Pool - Wolverhampton via Bilston 531 AMN Rocket Pool - New Cross Hospital via Bilston 539 JOH Kenilworth - Coventry via NAC, Baginton 580 JOH Rugby - Coventry via Dunchurch,Stretton, Ryton 585 COU Rugby - Coventry Station via Brinklow CARRS LANE to Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER 807 NXB PARADE West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 80 NXB to New Street Station, ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY New Street Station, ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY to West 80 NXB Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 585 COU Rugby - Coventry Station via Brinklow 604 AMN Kingstanding - Mere Green via Sutton 637 WCT Manor Hospital - Walsall via Palfrey 654 NXB Hamstead - Aston Six Ways via Perry Barr 657 HAN Briarscroft - Stourbridge via Kingswinford 703 COU Arena Park - University Hospital via Wood End 778 COU Nuneaton - University Hospital via Arena Park 878 SBS Brewood - Wolverhampton via Coven 890 AMN Bridgnorth - Wolverhampton via Rudge Heath 891 AMN Telford - Wolverhampton via Shifnal 892 AMN Telford - Wolverhampton via Shifnal, Tong 900 NXB Coventry - Birmingham via Meriden, Airport 902 NXB Hill Hook - Birmingham via Sutton Coldfield 904 NXB Falcon Lodge - Birmingham via Sutton Coldfield CHELMSLEY INTERCHANGE, CHELMSLEY CIRCLE to Argos, 90 NXB THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY Argos, THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY to CHELMSLEY 90 NXB INTERCHANGE, CHELMSLEY CIRCLE 905 NXB Roughley - Birmingham via Sutton Coldfield 905 CLL Mecca Bingo - Wolverhampton via Bilston 907 NXB Sutton Coldfield - Birmingham via Perry Barr CHELMSLEY INTERCHANGE, CHELMSLEY CIRCLE to Bus 94 NXB Mall, THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY 914 NXB Sutton Coldfield - Birmingham via Walmley Bus Mall, THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY to CHELMSLEY 94 NXB INTERCHANGE, CHELMSLEY CIRCLE 934 NXB Walsall - Birmingham via Pheasey No Operator Description AM IP PM 935 NXB Walsall - Birmingham via Streetly 952 NXB Perry Beeches - Birmingham via Perry Barr Bluebell Drive, YORKMINSTER DR to Bus Mall, MOOR ST 97A NXB QUEENSWAY 957 NXB Solihull - Birmingham via Sheldon, Yardley Bus Mall, MOOR ST QUEENSWAY to Bluebell Drive, 97A NXB YORKMINSTER DR 966 NXB Solihull - Erdington via Airport/NEC 966 VIP Solihull Station - Erdington via Airport 997 NXB Walsall - Birmingham via Aldridge, Pheasey 10A NXB Brownhills West - Walsall via Walsall Wood 11A NXB Birmingham Outer Circle Anti-clockwise Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION X1 NXB to Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION Merry Hill Bus Station, MERRY HILL BUS STATION to X1 NXB Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 11C JOE Birmingham Outer Circle Clockwise 13A TCV Willenhall - Whitmore Park via Coventry 16A TCV Keresley - University Hospital via Coventry 28 NXBBIR Scott Arms, WALSALL RD to Small Heath Park, WAVERLEY RD Little Bromwich Rd, BORDESLEY GREEN EAST to Scott Arms, 28 NXBBIR WALSALL RD 16A TCV Keresley - University Hospital via Coventry 29 NXBBIR Bristol Rd to Colmore Row, COLMORE ROW 29 NXBBIR Colmore Row, COLMORE ROW to Bristol Rd 33 NXBBIR Pheasey Church, COLLINGWOOD DR to Lower Bull St, BULL ST 33 NXBBIR Lower Bull St, BULL ST to Pheasey Church, COLLINGWOOD DR 16A NXB Keresley - University Hospital via Coventry 16X SMR Stratford - Leamington Limited Stop 18A TCV Tile Hill – Coventry via Cannon Park Longbridge Station, LONGBRIDGE LANE to New Street Station, 45 NXBBIR ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY New Street Station, ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY to Longbridge 45 NXBBIR Station, LONGBRIDGE LANE Parsonage Drive, GROVELEY LANE to New Street Station, ST. 47 NXBBIR MARTINS QUEENSWAY New Street Station, ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY to Parsonage 47 NXBBIR Drive, GROVELEY LANE 18A TCV Tile Hill - Coventry via Cannon Park 18A SMR Coventry - Warwick via Leamington Spa Weoley Castle Rd, CASTLE SQ to Solihull Station Interchange, 49 NXBBIR STATION APPROACH 205 ENXB Blackheath - Kingswinford via Dudley Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to Weoley 49 NXBBIR Castle Rd, CASTLE SQ Kingshurst Way, FORDBRIDGE RD to Pavillions, MOOR ST 59 NXBBIR QUEENSWAY Pavillions, MOOR ST QUEENSWAY to Kingshurst Way, 59 NXBBIR FORDBRIDGE RD 1 NXBBIR Acocks Green Village, SHIRLEY RD to Town Hall, PARADISE ST No Operator Description AM IP PM 3 NXBBIR Acocks Green Village, SHIRLEY RD to CARRS LANE 3 NXBBIR CARRS LANE to Acocks Green Village, SHIRLEY RD Court Lane, WITTON LODGE RD to Snow Hill Station, LIVERY 7 NXBBIR ST Bearwood Bus Station, BEARWOOD BUS STATION to Bus Mall, 82 NXBBIR THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY Bus Mall, THE PRIORY QUEENSWAY to Bearwood Bus Station, 82 NXBBIR BEARWOOD BUS STATION 89 NXBBIR Sainsburys to Markets, UPPER DEAN ST 89 NXBBIR Markets, UPPER DEAN ST to Sainsburys 20A TCV University Hospital - Coventry via Bell Green 20E TCV Longford – Coventry via Foleshill Road Snow Hill Station, LIVERY ST to Court Lane, WITTON LODGE 7 NXBBIR RD 1 NXBBIR Town Hall, PARADISE ST to Acocks Green Village, SHIRLEY RD Penk Rise, SCHOOL RD to Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS 1 NXBDUD STATION Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to The Crescent, 1 NXBDUD SCHOOL RD 256 ENXB Wolverhampton - Stourbridge via Kingswinford CARRS LANE to Solihull Station Interchange, STATION 5A NXBSOL APPROACH Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to CARRS 6 NXBSOL LANE CARRS LANE to Solihull Station Interchange, STATION 6 NXBSOL APPROACH NXBSolih Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to CARRS 5 ull LANE NXBSolih CARRS LANE to Solihull Station Interchange, STATION 5 ull APPROACH CHASE ROAD, Swan Corner to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL 10 NXBWAL BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to CHASE ROAD, 10 NXBWAL Swan Corner Bloxwich Park, PARK RD to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS 29 NXBWAL STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Bloxwich Park, 29 NXBWAL PARK RD West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 45 NXBWAL to Newport St, BRADFORD PL Newport St, BRADFORD PL to West Bromwich Bus Station, 45 NXBWAL WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 4 NXBWAL Barclays Bank, BIRMINGHAM RD to Newport St, BRADFORD PL 4 NXBWAL Newport St, BRADFORD PL to Barclays Bank, BIRMINGHAM RD Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE to Walsall Bus 6 NXBWAL Station, WALSALL BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Gracechurch 6 NXBWAL Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE 25A NXB Wolverhampton - Bilston via Wood End, Wednesfield Blakemore Rd, CASTLEFORT RD to Walsall Bus Station, 7 NXBWAL WALSALL BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Blakemore Rd, 7 NXBWAL CASTLEFORT RD 40 NXBWBR Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION to West No Operator Description AM IP PM Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 40 NXBWBR to Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION Freeman Rd, CRANKHALL LANE to West Bromwich Bus Station, 41 NXBWBR WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 41 NXBWBR to Freeman Rd, CRANKHALL LANE Scott Arms, WALSALL RD to Queens Rd, LONDONDERRY 46 NXBWBR LANE Queens Rd, LONDONDERRY LANE to Scott Arms, WALSALL 46 NXBWBR RD Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION to West 47 NXBWBR Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 27A NXB Dudley - Wolverhampton via Gornal Wood, Sedgley 297 ANXB Stickley Estate - Halesowen via Merry Hill West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 47 NXBWBR to Wednesbury Bus Station, WEDNESBURY BUS STATION West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 49 NXBWBR to Bearwood Bus Station, BEARWOOD BUS STATION Bearwood Bus Station, BEARWOOD BUS STATION to West 49 NXBWBR Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION West Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION 5 NXBWBR to Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE Gracechurch Shopping Centre, LOWER PARADE to West 5 NXBWBR Bromwich Bus Station, WEST BROMWICH BUS STATION Perton_S to Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON 10 NXBWOL BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 10 NXBWOL to Perton_S Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Wolverhampton 27 NXBWol Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 27 NXBWol to Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION The Mal, UNION ST to Wolverhampton Bus Station, 28 NXBWOL WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 28 NXBWOL to The Mal, UNION ST Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 33 NXBWOL to Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 40 NXBWOL to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Wolverhampton 40 NXBWOL Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 59 NXBWOL Baylis Avenue, GRIFFITHS DR to Tower St, MARKET ST 59 NXBWOL Tower St, MARKET ST to Ecclestone Rd, GRIFFITHS DR 5A NXBWOL Bakers_way to Tower St, MARKET ST 5A NXBWOL Tower St, MARKET ST to Bakers_way Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION to Wolverhampton 82 NXBWOL Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 82 NXBWOL to Dudley Bus Station, DUDLEY BUS STATION 297 ANXB Stickley Estate - Halesowen via Merry Hill 29A NXB Shenley Fields - Birmingham via Harborne No Operator Description AM IP PM 31A NXB Shirley - Birmingham via Acocks Green 333 XSAT Willenhall - Walsall via Darlaston, Manor Hospital Tower St, MARKET ST to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS 89 NXBWOL STATION Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Tower St, 89 NXBWOL MARKET ST Moreton Secondary School, OLD FALLINGS LANE to Enville Rd, 2 NXBWOL EASTCROFT RD Enville Rd, EASTCROFT RD to Moreton Secondary School, OLD 2 NXBWOL FALLINGS LANE Stafford Rd, BROADLANDS to Castlecroft Hotel, CASTLECROFT 3 NXBWOL AVE Castlecroft Hotel, CASTLECROFT AVE to Stafford Rd, 3 NXBWOL BROADLANDS Spring Hill Lane, WARSTONES RD to Whitburn Close, BLAYDON 4 NXBWOL RD Whitburn Close, BLAYDON RD to Spring Hill Lane, WARSTONES 4 NXBWOL RD 5 NXBWOL Bakers_way to Tower St, MARKET ST 5 NXBWOL Tower St, MARKET ST to Bakers_way Patshull Grove, PATSHULL AVE to Wolverhampton Bus Station, 6 NXBWOL WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 6 NXBWOL to Patshull Grove, PATSHULL AVE 291 RBT Regal to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 291 RBT KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to Regal Manor Rd Post Office, LONDONDERRY LANE to Town Hall, 89 RWG PARADISE ST Town Hall, PARADISE ST to Manor Rd Post Office, 89 RWG LONDONDERRY LANE Saddlers Centre, BRADFORD PL to Bilston Bus Station, 334 SAT BILSTON BUS STATION Bilston Bus Station, BILSTON BUS STATION to Saddlers Centre, 334 SAT BRADFORD PL A12 SCC The Punchbowl Inn to Harp Inn A12 SCC Harp Inn to The Punchbowl Inn A18 SCC Harp Inn to Centre 275 SLI PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Church WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon to MARKET STREET, 16A SMR Warwick Square 360 COU Coventry Outer CircleAnti-clockwise A WARWICK NEW ROAD, Prince's Drive to ALCESTER RD, Sth 16A SMR Warwickshire College KENILWORTH RD, Northumberland Rd to ALCESTER RD, Sth 16A SMR Warwickshire College 2 SMR Merlin Close to RUGBY, Clifton Rd 2 SMR Merlin Close to North Street 2 SMR Church Street to North Street 3 SMR Parkfield Road to Parkfield Road 4 SMR Crow Thorns to Addison Road 5 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION No Operator Description AM IP PM 7 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION 9 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION 3 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION 3 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION 2 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION 4 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION LIVINGSTON AVENUE, The Green, Long Lawford to Hughes 3A SMR Close 5A SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION ST HELENS ROAD, Wych Elm Drive to Arts Centre,WARWICK U1 SMR UNIVERSITY GROUNDS University Security Office, WARWICK UNIVERSITY GROUNDS U1 SMR to HIGH STREET, Court Street 10 SMR Bus Station to Bull Inn 10 SMR Church Street to Bus Station 10 SMR Clifton Manor to North Street 10 SMR Clifton Manor to Bus Station 12 SMR Merlin Close to Holyoake Terrace 12 SMR Holyoake Terrace to Central Park 360 COU Coventry Outer Circle Anti-clockwise A 12 SMR Merlin Close to Holyoake Terrace 12 SMR Merlin Close to RUGBY, Clifton Rd 360 COU Coventry Outer Circle Clockwise C 12 SMR DUNCHURCH RD, Sainsburys to Central Park 12 SMR Merlin Close to Holyoake Terrace WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon to PARADE, Clarendon 16A SMR Avenue 17 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION 360 COU Coventry Outer Circle Clockwise C 39A WMS Longbridge - Woodgate Valley via Northfield 18 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon to WOOD STREET, 19 SMR Stratford-On-Avon REDDITCH BUS STATION to WOOD STREET, Stratford-On- 26 SMR Avon BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to REDDITCH BUS 26 SMR STATION BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to BRIDGE STREET, 28A SMR Stratford-Upon-Avon 28 SMR Morrisons to BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon 28 SMR BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to Morrisons 41 SMR Racemeadow Primary School to NUNEATON BUS STATION 41 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to Racemeadow Primary School 41 SMR NUNEATON BUS STATION to Post Office 50A SMR Bus Station to WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon 50A SMR BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to Bus Station No Operator Description AM IP PM 50 SMR West Street to WOOD STREET, Stratford-On-Avon 50 SMR BRIDGE STREET, Stratford-Upon-Avon to West Street 63 SMR Abbey Street to Cromwell Road 63 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Abbey Street 63 SMR Abbey Street to Stagecoach Depot 64A SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Stagecoach Depot 64 SMR Harvester to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 64 SMR Abbey Street to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 65 SMR Bus Station to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 65 SMR Bus Station to Bus Station 65 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Bus Station 66 SMR Bus Station to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 66 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Bus Station 401 EDIA Yew Tree - Walsall via Delves, Palfrey 67 SMR Cowdray Close to Kinross Road 67 SMR STATION ROAD, Avenue Road to Kinross Road 67 SMR The Holt to TACHBROOK ROAD, Cashmore Avenue 68 SMR Library to Rugby Road 68 SMR Stonehouse Close to Church 68 SMR CHARINGWORTH DRIVE, Barcheston Drive to Rugby Road 68 SMR Stonehouse Close to Charington Drive 68 SMR CHARINGWORTH DRIVE, Barcheston Drive to Rugby Road 68 SMR STATION ROAD, Avenue Road to Rugby Road 77 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Church 77 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Memorial Road 77 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Memorial 77 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Memorial Road 77 SMR PARADE, Clarendon Avenue to Church 77 SMR Memorial to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 77 SMR Church to PARADE, Clarendon Avenue 96 SMR Greyfriars Bus Station to North Street 40X HIR Bearwood - Perry Barr via Handsworth 96 SMR Greyfriars Bus Station to North Street 96 SMR Church Street to Greyfriars Bus Station G1 SMR Harrow Road to BARCHESTON DRIVE, Mollington Grove G1 SMR MARKET STREET, Warwick Square to Church 10 SMRNUN NUNEATON BUS STATION to NUNEATON BUS STATION Coventry Eastern Bypass,LONDON RD to Sainsbury's,TRINITY 3A TCV ST Sainsbury's,TRINITY ST to Coventry Eastern Bypass,LONDON 3A TCV RD 9C TCV Erithway Rd, ST MARTINS RD to Gretna Rd, GREEN LANE Wildtree Avenue, WESTCROFT AVE to Wolverhampton Bus 11 TEX Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 11 TEX Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION No Operator Description AM IP PM to Wildtree Avenue, WESTCROFT AVE Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 32 TEX to Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 33 TEX to Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Moreton Secondary School, OLD FALLINGS LANE to 2 TEX Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION Wolverhampton Bus Station, WOLVERHAMPTON BUS STATION 2 TEX to Moreton Secondary School, OLD FALLINGS LANE Police Station, BILSTON ST to Moreton Secondary School, OLD 2 TEX FALLINGS LANE 12 VCC The Wicket PH to RUGELEY Bus Station, Elmore Lane RUGELEY Bus Station, Elmore Lane to RUGELEY Bus Station, 13 VCC Elmore Lane LICHFIELD BUS STATION, Birmingham Rd to RUGELEY Bus 14 VCC Station, Elmore Lane RUGELEY Bus Station, Elmore Lane to LICHFIELD BUS 14 VCC STATION, Birmingham Rd 101 VIP The Leverretts, OXHILL RD to Snow Hill Station, LIVERY ST 101 VIP Snow Hill Station, LIVERY ST to The Leverretts, OXHILL RD 40 VIP Edgcombe Road to The Baldwin, BALDWINS LANE 40 VIP The Baldwin, BALDWINS LANE to Edgcombe Road 424 VIP Markets, UPPER DEAN ST to Haddon Rd, THORNBRIDGE AVE 424 VIP Haddon Rd, THORNBRIDGE AVE to Markets, UPPER DEAN ST 650 VIP Institute Rd, HIGH ST to Markets, UPPER DEAN ST 650 VIP Markets, UPPER DEAN ST to Institute Rd, HIGH ST Halesowen Bus Station, HALESOWEN BUS STATION to New 99 VIP Street Station, ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY New Street Station, ST. MARTINS QUEENSWAY to Halesowen 99 VIP Bus Station, HALESOWEN BUS STATION 7A WCS KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 140 WCS Navigation Inn to BROMSGROVE BUS STATION, Market Street 17 WCS Ombersley Street East to Ombersley Street East 18 WCS Ombersley Street East to Ombersley Street East 197 WCS Harvester to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 19A WCS Ombersley Street East to Ombersley Street East 19C WCS Ombersley Street East to Ombersley Street East 20 WCS Ombersley Street East to Ombersley Street East REDDITCH BUS STATION to BARBOURNE ROAD,St George's 350 WCS Square REDDITCH BUS STATION to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus 350 WCS Station BARBOURNE ROAD,St George's Square to REDDITCH BUS 350 WCS STATION 354 WCS Westacre Middle School to Ombersley Street East 355 WCS Ombersley Street East to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 355 WCS DROITWICH ROAD, Raven Inn to Droitwich Spa High School 355 WCS CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Ombersley Street East No Operator Description AM IP PM W3 WCS A & E Unit to Sixways Park and Ride site W3 WCS Sixways Park and Ride site to Three Pears 360 WCT Harrison Rd, BROAD LANE to Town Hall, LICHFIELD ST 360 WCT Town Hall, LICHFIELD ST to Harrison Rd, BROAD LANE Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS STATION to Bloxwich Park, 43 WCT PARK RD Bloxwich Park, PARK RD to Walsall Bus Station, WALSALL BUS 43 WCT STATION 432 WDL Bleak House Farm to Stafford Grammar School 432 WDL Stafford Grammar School to Moss Lane 7 WHI Hayes Road to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 7 WHI KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to Hayes Road 2A WHI Wyre Hill to Town Hall_B 2A WHI Town Hall_B to Bark Hill Shops 11 WHI High Street to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 11 WHI KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to High Street 15 WHI Load Street to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station 15 WHI KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to Load Street 1 WHI KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station to KIDDERMINSTER, Bus Station S15 WHI Whitelenge Lane to Load Street 517 WMS Reservoi to REDDITCH BUS STATION 647 WMS Five Ways, HAGLEY RD to Beckbury Rd, CASTLE SQ Beckbury Rd, CASTLE SQ to St George`s Church, 647 WMS WESTBOURNE RD Solihull Station Interchange, STATION APPROACH to Kenilworth 82A WMS Rd, ALDER LANE Kenilworth Rd, ALDER LANE to Solihull Station Interchange, 82A WMS STATION APPROACH 758 YTN Supermarket to Sixth Form College 758 YTN Supermarket to CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station 40X HIR Bearwood - Perry Barr via Handsworth 758 YTN CROWNGATE, Worcester Bus Station to Supermarket 46S NXB Birmingham - Pheasey via Perry Barr 47A NXB Wednesbury - West Bromwich via Balls Hill 4H NXB Halesowen - Walsall via West Bromwich 4M NXB Merry Hill - Walsall via West Bromwich 50A GBC Redditch - Birmingham via Moseley 55A NXB Chelmsley Wood - Birmingham via Ward End 59A NXB Chelmsley Wood - Birmingham via Kitts Green 62A NXB Compton - Wolverhampton via Farndale Ave 66A NXB Erdington - Sutton Coldfield via Boldmere 6A TCV Victoria Farm - Tanyard Farm via Coventry 70A NXB Walsall - Beechdale Circular via Green Lane 71A NXB Sutton Coldfield - Castle Vale via Walmley 7A NXB Castlefort - Walsall via Leighswood, Aldridge 88A AMN Stafford - Wolverhampton via Lapley, Brewood No Operator Description AM IP PM 8A NXB Birmingham Inner Circle Anti-clockwise 8C NXB Birmingham Inner Circle Clockwise 935 ANXB Brownhills - Birmingham via Streetly 9A TCV University Hospital - Wainbody via Coventry B90 SIL Blythe Valley Business Park - Birmingham Intl Stn L1 COU Leamington Spa - University of Warwick PRS COU Coventry South Park & Ride (Memorial Park) S1 NXB Solihull - Damsonwood Circular S10 SIL Cranes Park - Solihull via Sheldon S9 SIL Blythe Valley Business Park - Solihull U12 SMR Sydenham/Leamington Spa - Warwick Uni Unibus W1A COU University of Warwick - Coventry Anticlockwise W1C COU University of Warwick - Coventry Clockwise X12 MDC Burton On Trent - Sutton Coldfield via Lichfield X15 SMR Stratford – Coventry via Leamington Spa X17 SMR Warwick - Coventry via Leamington X18 SMR Stratford - Coventry via Leamington Spa X20 JOH Stratford - Birmingham via Henley in Arden X48 SMR Atherstone - Coventry via Nuneaton X50 JOH Redditch - Birmingham via Moseley X51 NXB Cannock - Birmingham via Walsall (Limited Stop) X6 COU Leicester - Coventry via M69 Pool Meadow Bus Station,POOL MEADOW BUS STATION to 27 Winnallthorpe,MIDDLE RIDE Linnet Close,YARNINGALE RD to Pool Meadow Bus 27 Station,POOL MEADOW BUS STATION Gretna Rd,GREEN LANE to St Benedicts School,KING WILLIAM 45 ST Days Lane, PAYNES LANE to Ullathorne School, BEANFIELD 45 AVE Swanswell St, STONEY STANTON RD to Tile Hill Wood School, 53 TILE HILL LANE Tile Hill Wood School, TILE HILL LANE to City College, 53 SWANSWELL ST Catesby Rd, JUBILEE CRES to Tile Hill School, NUTBROOK 58 AVE Tile Hill School, NUTBROOK AVE to Catesby Rd, JUBILEE 58 CRES 59 Tile Hill AVE to Sutton Avenue, FARCROFT AVENUE X64 NXB Rubery - Birmingham via Selly Oak X73 INV Tamworth - Birmingham Limited Stop) X96 NXB Wollaston Farm - Wrens Nest via Dudley 59 Sutton Avenue, FARCROFT AVENUE to Tile Hill AVE Farcroft Avenue, BROAD LANE to Lythalls Lane, HOLBROOK 72 LANE Lythalls Lane, HOLBROOK LANE to Farcroft Avenue, BROAD 72 LANE University Hospital, UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL to NUNEATON 778 BUS STATION No Operator Description AM IP PM NUNEATON BUS STATION to University Hospital, UNIVERSITY 778 HOSPITAL PRINCE'S DRIVE, Warwick New Road to Westcotes, TILE HILL X14 LANE Westcotes, TILE HILL LANE to PRINCE'S DRIVE, Warwick New X14 Road X30 Sports Centre,FAIRFAX ST to Ansty Park,ANSTY PARK X30 Coventry Rail Station,STATION SQ to Sports Centre,FAIRFAX ST X30 Ansty Park,ANSTY PARK to Sports Centre,FAIRFAX ST
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