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Explorations in Cliometrics Explorations in Cliometrics Stijn Ronsse 2015 Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Glenn Rayp Prof. Dr. Eric Vanhaute Submitted at Ghent University, To the faculty of Economics and Business Administration, In fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Applied Economic Sciences Doctoral committee: Prof. Dr. Marc De Clercq Ghent University Prof. Dr. Gerdie Everaert Ghent University Prof. Dr. Erik Buyst University of Leuven Prof. Dr. Claude Diebolt University of Strasbourg Prof. Dr. Jan de Vries University of California Berkeley Prof. Dr. Koen Schoors Ghent University Dankwoord De voltooiing van deze dissertatie is niet enkel het resultaat van eigen inbreng, maar evenzeer van de gekregen kansen, input, steun en vriendschap van anderen. Chronologisch gezien wens ik eerst professor Marc De Clercq te bedanken. Hij stond aan de start van mijn academische carrière, bood mij de mogelijkheid om te doctoreren, wierf mij aan als assistent en adviseerde mij om professor Glenn Rayp als promotor te vragen. Terugkijkend op mijn jaren aan de universiteit bleek het positieve antwoord van Glenn een belangrijke mijlpaal te zijn. Ik wil hem dan ook bedanken voor de samenwerking, voor het eindeloze proeflezen, voor de vrijheid om mijn eigen weg te zoeken en voor zijn inbreng –steeds getuigend van zijn brede en diepgaande kennis– in zowel academische en niet-academische materie. Mijn dank gaat ook uit naar de leden van de doctorale begeleidingscommissie. Professor Gerdie Everaert, professor Erik Buyst en professor Eric Vanhaute boden mij de kans om hen te overtuigen van mijn kwaliteiten als onderzoeker en ondersteunden dit doel met hun academisch inzicht op het vlak van historische context en methodologische aspecten. Eric verdient een speciale vermelding, niet alleen als copromotor van deze thesis, maar ook omdat hij samen met Sven Vrielinck een rijkdom aan data aanbracht die dit onderzoek mogelijk maakten. i Dankwoord/Acknowledgements Vanzelfsprekend wil ik ook de andere leden van de jury bedanken: professor Koen Schoors, professor Claude Diebolt en professor Jan de Vries. Zoals het ook voor de reeds bovengenoemde personen het geval is, stemt het mij nederig dat zij allemaal kostbare tijd en moeite investeerden in het beoordelen en aldus kwalitatief verbeteren van deze thesis. Tenslotte wil ik professor Bruno Merlevede bedanken voor zijn bereidheid om als vervangend voorzitter op te treden bij de voorverdediging. Het bovenstaande overzicht wekt mogelijk de indruk dat enkel de academische input belangrijk was voor het behalen van dit doctoraat, maar niets is minder waar. Hoewel deze bijdragen misschien niet onmiddellijk in het oog springen, waren ze even belangrijk. Aan mijn collega’s, jullie zorgden allemaal samen voor fantastische jaren aan de vakgroep Algemene Economie. Ik genoot van het lachen, de grappen, het gebabbel, de discussies, het samenwerken, het lopen, het spel “tegels”, de motiverende koffiepauzes (tussen de bureaus van Martine en Eva) en het opbeuren wanneer ik daar nood aan had. De vriendschap met sommigen van jullie werd danig hecht dat een vermelding in de volgende opsomming evengoed mogelijk is. Aan de Zingemse en Gentse vrienden, de mede-historici, de Clio- ploeg, mijn (schoon)familie en (schoon)ouders, mijn schoonzussen, mijn (schoon) broer, mijn dochter en Anne-Lore; jullie bijdrage is groter dan jullie beseffen. Jullie leerden mij de waarde van een kritische geest, toonden mij het belang van eerlijkheid en bescheidenheid, beïnvloedden mijn waarden en normen, inspireerden mij, lieten mij in hun voetstappen wandelen, verlichtten mijn dagen, motiveerden mij, hielpen mij door moeilijke momenten en duwden mij doorheen de muur als het nodig was. Aan jullie allemaal, doe zo voort, Dankbaarheid is op zijn plaats, Stijn ii Acknowledgements As much as the completion of this dissertation is the result of hard work and perseverance, it has been made possible by the offered possibilities, inputs, support and camaraderie by others. To start with, my gratitude goes out to professor Marc De Clercq. He offered the opportunity to start my PhD., hired me as an assistant and advised to ask Professor Glenn Rayp to be my supervisor. In retrospect, Glenn’s willingness to take me on as a student was the most important milestone in my years at the economics department. I would like to thank Glenn for the collaboration and input over the past years, for the seemingly endlessly proof reading, for the freedom to find my own way and for sharing his reasoned opinion on so many matters– each time underscoring his eruditeness. I would also like to thank the members of my doctoral advisory committee. Professor Gerdie Everaert, professor Erik Buyst and professor Eric Vanhaute gave me the chance to convince them that I could produce a valuable thesis and helped to make it so with their academic insights on framing and methodological issues. Eric deserves a special mention; he was not only the second advisor of this thesis, he also delivered –together with Sven Vrielinck– a richness in data that enabled this research. Of course, I would also like to thank the other members of the jury: iii Dankwoord/Acknowledgements Professor Koen Schoors, professor Claude Diebolt and professor Jan de Vries. As it is for the already mentioned advisers, I am humbled by the devotion of their precious time and by their efforts to constructively criticize and improve my dissertation. Lastly, I would like to thank professor Bruno Merlevede for his willingness to act as a replacing chairman of the jury. However, not only the academic input is essential, many others were an as important factor in the completion of this thesis. To my colleagues, all of you made me love my time at the faculty. I enjoyed the laughs, the jokes, the chattering, the discussions, the collaborations, the runs, the game ‘tiles’, the motivating coffee breaks (between the desks of Martine and Eva) and the cheering up. Most of all, I loved the feeling of continuously learning, just by talking and listening to all of you. Of course, some of you became good friends and could also be included in the following enumeration. To the friends of Zingem and Ghent, my fellow historians, the Clio-team, my family(in law) and parents (in law), my sisters in law, my brother, my brother in law, my daughter and Anne-Lore; all of you have contributed more than you know. You learned me the value of a critical mind, showed me the importance of being honest and modest, influenced my values and morals, inspired me, let me walk in their footsteps, enlightened my days, motivated me and helped me through rough times. To all of you, keep up the good work, Sincerely, Stijn iv Samenvatting Aan de Universiteit van Gent is het, in tegenstelling tot de Angelsaksische wereld, ongewoon om een doctoraat binnen het onderzoeksveld van de Cliometrie af te werken aan de faculteit Economie. Dat dit ook aan de andere Belgische faculteiten het geval is, valt voornamelijk te verklaren door het ontbreken van een cliometrische subcultuur. Er zijn enkele onderzoekers die een rol spelen in het internationale debat (voorbeelden zijn Erik Buyst, Guy Dejongh, Jean-Luc Demeulemeester, Pierre Lebrun, Luca Pensieroso, Jean Gadisseur en Kim Oosterlinck), maar van een traditie is helemaal geen sprake. België heeft wel een sterke overlevering op vlak van kwantitatieve geschiedenis, maar het gebruik van econometrie ter analyse van historische processen sloeg nooit echt aan. Met deze verhandeling wil ik demonstreren dat het cliometrisch onderzoek een meerwaarde kan betekenen voor economen en historici en dat het een plaats verdient in economische departementen, zoals internationaal meer het geval is. Over de hele verhandeling worden vijf argumenten aangereikt waarom Cliometrie een meerwaarde kan betekenen voor de Belgische onderzoekswereld. Vanuit het standpunt van economisten laat deze methodologie toe om economische modellen empirisch te testen, om bestaand onderzoek vanuit een breder historisch perspectief te analyseren en wordt een laboratorium geboden om economische v Samenvatting interacties te bestuderen. Vanuit het standpunt van historici wordt de mogelijkheid geboden om onvolledige datasets te controleren/aan te vullen en om deze, of bestaande reeksen, te gebruiken om bijkomende antwoorden op bestaande onderzoeksvragen te formuleren. Ter bewijsvoering onderzoek ik vier casussen die elk een demonstratie van de mogelijkheden van Cliometrie vormen en die op hun beurt bijdragen tot de internationale literatuur. In het eerste hoofdstuk onderzoek ik, samen met coauteurs Samuel Standaert en Benjamin Vandemarliere, de zogenaamde “distance puzzle”. Intuïtief kan men veronderstellen dat naarmate de wereld in toenemende mate richting één groot dorp evolueerde, de handelspatronen tussen alle landen wereldwijd in afnemende mate bepaald werd door afstand. De laatste drie decennia zijn er echter verschillende studies die net het tegenovergestelde effect concludeerden voor de tweede helft van de 20ste eeuw. Gebruik makend van een nieuwe benadering (state-space model zoals beschreven in hoofdstuk 2) slaagden wij er in om de analyse uit te breiden tot de periode 1880-2014, daar waar voordien enkel onderzoek vanaf de jaren ‘50 mogelijk was. Zoals te zien is in figuur 0.1 vinden wij ook een stagnerend of dalend belang van afstand op de wereldwijde handelsstromen in de tweede helft van de 20ste eeuw (de coëfficiënt is voor de hele periode ongeveer gelijk aan -0.4). Tijdens de eerste globalisatiegolf daarentegen is een sterk dalend effect van afstand vast te stellen (hoe
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