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Economics for Managing Nuclear Energy in Japan

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Economics for Managing Nuclear Energy in Japan 15 January 2013, Session IV, Keynote-Part III, Nuclear Power ASIA, Kuala Lumpur ECONOMICS FOR MANAGING NUCLEAR ENERGY IN JAPAN Japan Atomic Energy Agency Kazuaki YANAGISAWA [email protected] 1 Chronology of NPP in Japan for 34 years 70,000M$, 260Billion Ringgit or 7兆円 NPP Economic 7,000 Crisis in Japan A 1978 TMI-2 accident B 1979 2nd Oil shock (Islamic F 6,000 Total;1,084,752M$ revolution) for 34 years C 1985 Plaza accord,240→150 yen/dollar, High-priced yen 5,000 G J D 1986 Chernobyl accident I H E 1986-1991 Bubble boom and Yen) 10years slump 4,000 F 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 1st c Economic scale study D G 2005 2nd Economic scale 3,000 study H 2007 Niigata Chuetsu Offing End (Billion End 2,000 Earthquake(M=6.8) B I 2008 Lehman shock (Hard stock slump) 1,000 A J 2010 The Great East Japan E Earthquake(M=9.0),Fukushima Daiichi Severe Accident 0 Economic scale of Nuclear Power Plant of at scale Plant Nuclear Power Demand Economic 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Fiscal Year 2 LWR operation in Japan 2010-2012 Electric Power Licensed Power Station Reactor Power 2010 2011 2012 Hokkaido Tomari １ PWR 579 Hokuriku Shika １ BWR 540 Tomari ２ PWR 579 Shika ２ BWR 1,206 Tomari ３ PWR 912 Kansai Mihama １ PWR 340 Tohoku Onagawa １ BWR 524 ** Mihama ２ PWR 500 Onagawa ２ BWR 825 ** Mihama ３ PWR 826 ３ Onagawa BWR 825 ** Takahama １ PWR 826 Totsu １ BWR 1,100 Takahama ２ PWR 826 Tokyo Fukushima I-1 BWR 460 Decomission ３ Fukushima I-２ BWR 784 Decomission Takahama PWR 870 Fukushima I-３ BWR 784 Decomission Takahama ４ PWR 870 Fukushima I-４ BWR 784 Decomission Oi １ PWR 1,175 Fukushima I-５ BWR 784 ** Oi ２ PWR 1,175 Fukushima I-６ BWR 1,100 ** Oi ３ PWR 1,180 Fukushima II-１ BWR 1,100 ** Oi ４ PWR 1,180 Fukushima II-２ BWR 1,100 ** Chugoku Shimane １ BWR 460 Annual Inspection Fukushima II-３ BWR 1,100 ** Shimane ２ BWR 820 Fukushima II-４ BWR 1,100 ** Shikoku Ikata １ PWR 566 Kashiwazaki－Kariwa １ BWR 1,100 Ikata ２ PWR 566 Kashiwazaki－Kariwa ２ BWR 1,100 Chuetsu Offing Earthquake * Ikata ３ PWR 890 Kashiwazaki－Kariwa ３ BWR 1,100 Annual Inspection * Kyushu Genkai １ PWR 559 Kashiwazaki－Kariwa ４ BWR 1,100 Annual Inspection * ２ Kashiwazaki－Kariwa ５ BWR 1,100 Genkai PWR 559 Kashiwazaki－Kariwa ６ ABWR 1,356 Genkai ３ PWR 1,180 Kashiwazaki－Kariwa ７ ABWR 1,356 Genkai ４ PWR 1,180 Chubu Hamaoka １ BWR 540 2009.1.Shut Down Sendai １ PWR 890 Hamaoka ２ BWR 840 2009.1.Shut Down Sendai １ PWR 890 Hamaoka ３ BWR 1,100 JAPCO Tokai GCR 166 1998.3 Shut Down Hamaoka ４ BWR 1,137 (Japan Atomic Tokai II BWR 1,100 ** Hamaoka ５ BWR 1,380 Power Tsuruga １ BWR 357 Company) Tsuruga ２ PWR 1,160 Total number of reactors operated 54 26 3 The Great East Japan Earthquake We are here 3 Ⅰ INTRODUCTION 1 Purpose To study the economic implications of the Fukushima accident on the Japanese economy and society the link between nuclear energy and CO2 emission reductions the economic scale of nuclear energy and application of radiation 2 Target Year 1978～2011 (34 years) 4 2. METHOD Database Ministry of Finance: ”Annual Securities Report ”, prepared by each Japanese electric power company, for example, http://www.tepco.co.jp/ir/tool/yuho/bk-j.html, [in Japanese] Federation of Electric Power Companies; “Self-produced and regional exchanged general electricity”, http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/data/hatsujyuden/2011.html Currency conversion rate Information Service Bureau, the Bank of Japan, “ Foreign Exchange Market”, http://www.stat- search.boj.or.jp/ssi/(2011), [in Japanese] 1 US dollar =120.9 Japanese yen for 1997, 110.2 for 2005 and 79.8 for 2010. 1 MYR=27 Japanese yen for 2011 5 Ⅲ.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 6 １．Economic Scale of Nuclear Power Generation New energy Demand End Hydraulic <2> Thermal 54LWRｓ Supply End <1> Electricity cost at Electricity cost at supply end ; demand end; capital, running and generation, maintenance, and fuel costs transmission and distribution costs. 7 1.1 The economic scale of electricity at the demand end; E (d) E (d) = {operating income + non-operating income + financial income } ×{ (electricity generated by nuclear) / (nuclear + thermal + hydraulic + new energy – pumping up power)｝ = {ordinary earnings} ×{a share of nuclear power generation} 8 (M$) FY 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Hokkaido 4,681 4,621 4,640 5,570 5,659 4,816 7,754 (1) Ordinary Earnings 13,716 13,439 13,612 16,190 16,189 13,675 18,680 Tohoku Data from the Ministry of Finance Tokyo 45,199 43,499 44,714 55,000 51,885 45,671 64,967 Chubu 18,826 18,293 18,972 22,872 22,512 19,260 29,010 http://www.tepco.co.jp/ir/tool/yuho/bk- Hokuriku 4,267 4,094 3,978 4,991 4,958 4,266 6,103 j.html Kansai 21,935 20,837 21,253 25,103 25,374 21,992 31,733 Chugoku 8,943 8,643 8,910 10,834 10,520 9,130 14,143 Shikoku 4,737 4,557 4,771 5,621 5,322 4,704 6,843 (2) A share of nuclear power Kyushu 12,110 11,521 11,901 13,909 14,404 12,262 17,725 =Electricity generated by nuclear / Gross FY 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 generated electricity Hokkaido 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.19 0.35 0.45 0.29 Data from the Federation of Electric Tohoku 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.23 0.00 Power Companies Tokyo 0.34 0.37 0.22 0.22 0.28 0.26 0.10 Chubu 0.23 0.15 0.19 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.02 http://www.fepc.or.jp/library/data/hatsujy Hokuriku 0.28 0.28 0.07 0.35 0.39 0.37 0.00 uden/2011.html Kansai 0.44 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.45 0.41 0.20 Year 2005 Chugoku 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.15 0.03 0.09 Average Coefficient of 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.41 0.43 0.19 Shikoku installation utilization (%) 72 Kyushu 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.43 0.39 0.16 Gross generated electricity（TWh) 957 (M$) Nuclear power 304 FY 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Thermal power 582 Hokkaido 1,202 1,238 1,167 1,055 1,977 2,159 2,261 Hydraulic power 81 Tohoku 2,010 2,372 3,005 3,600 4,023 3,134 0 reakdonw New energy 5 B Tokyo 15,262 16,298 10,010 12,153 14,439 12,093 6,270 Pumping-up power -16 Chubu 4,349 2,734 3,581 4,071 2,853 2,073 546 Hokuriku 1,210 1,162 274 1,751 1,936 1,595 0 Kansai 9,617 9,053 8,779 10,157 11,305 8,946 6,455 (3) Economic scale of NPP at Chugoku 1,271 1,023 1,085 1,157 1,586 305 1,276 demand end Shikoku 2,298 2,124 2,241 2,620 2,181 2,006 1,279 （３）＝（１）×（２） Kyushu 5,333 4,727 4,910 5,625 6,150 4,802 2,775 9 Cost of electricity at the demand end (M$) FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Hokkaido 1,138 1,202 1,238 1,167 1,055 1,977 2,159 2,261 Tohoku 3,078 2,010 2,372 3,005 3,600 4,023 3,134 0 Tokyo 13,944 15,262 16,298 10,010 12,153 14,439 12,093 6,270 Chubu 3,554 4,349 2,734 3,581 4,071 2,853 2,073 546 Hokuriku 959 1,210 1,162 274 1,751 1,936 1,595 0 Kansai 9,216 9,617 9,053 8,779 10,157 11,305 8,946 6,455 Chugoku 1,023 1,271 1,023 1,085 1,157 1,586 305 1,276 Shikoku 2,188 2,298 2,124 2,241 2,620 2,181 2,006 1,279 Kyushu 5,577 5,333 4,727 4,910 5,625 6,150 4,802 2,775 Sum 40,678 42,552 40,703 35,119 42,632 46,816 40,462 20,862 Facility availabulity(%) 68.9 71.9 69.9 60.7 60.0 65.7 67.3 23.7 Cost of electricity at the supply end (M$) The economic FY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 scale at Hokkaido 420 428 378 381 716 1,111 954 1,393 Tohoku 1,119 1,375 1,331 1,387 1,514 1,665 1,221 1,406 demand end is Tokyo 5,389 5,049 5,026 4,556 4,544 5,264 4,553 5,373 three times Chubu 2,008 1,517 1,503 1,444 1,355 1,413 1,124 1,265 the magnitude Hokuriku 276 857 723 542 757 916 692 850 at the supply Kansai 2,615 2,962 3,129 3,025 3,745 4,003 3,392 4,091 Chugoku 486 529 640 599 610 670 471 819 end.
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