2020 Election Recap, 2022 Election Preview, Legislative Insights Eric Haar
Presidential Election Results Electoral College Map Electoral College Map – Swing States Swing State Margins of Victory for Biden
Arizona: 0.3% Georgia: 0.2%
Pennsylvania: 1.2% Wisconsin: 0.7% Recent Presidential Election Results
2016: Trump 306, Clinton 232 2012: Obama 332, Romney 206
2008: Obama 364, McCain 174 2004: Bush 286, Kerry 251 House Results • 222 Democrats – 213 Republicans • Democrats lost 11 seats In 50 “Swing Districts” Republicans Held or Gained 33 Seats; Democrats Held or Gained 17 Congressional Reapportionment • 2020 Census: Which states gained/lost population – Some states will gain/lose House seats
• Gained o+2 seats: Texas o+1 seat: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon • Lost (-1 seat) oCalifornia, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia
State-level redistricting coming soon Then Congressional Redistricting • Later this year: Redrawing the House map for the next decade • Case study: Louisiana
2000 2010 Convoluted Congressional Districts
4th District 1993-1994 (in yellow): Rep. Cleo Fields Quick Refresher: US Senators Serve 6-Year Terms • 1/3 of Senate seats are on the ballot every two year
2016 2018 2020 Senate Results • Democrats netted three seats • New balance of power 50-50; but VP Harris breaks the tie Georgia Senate Runoff Races
Raphael Warnock (D) defeated Kelly Loeffler (R) 51% - 49%
Jon Ossoff (D) defeated David Perdue (R) 50.6% - 49.4% Where Republican Defenses Prevailed The New Senate Power Brokers
• Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ) are moderate voices
• Collins (R-ME), Murkowski (R-AK) and Romney (R-UT) could vote with Democrats 2022 Senate Map • Four vulnerable Republicans, four vulnerable Democrats Takeaways: Voter Turnout • Highest since 1900 Importance of This Election Inaccurate Polling • Polls showed Biden leading by 7.2% • He won by 4.4% • Similar story with many House and Senate races
Biden Trump Spread
Polling Average 51.2 44 7.2
Final Result 51.4 47 4.4 Polling Case Study: U.S. Senate Race in Maine
Final Result
Susan Collins (R) Polling
Sarah Gideon (D) A Split Electorate
• Ninth consecutive presidential election decided by single digits • 50-50 Senate • Nine-seat Democratic majority in the House • Democrats must moderate to pass legislation, win in 2022 and 2024 • Republicans must reckon with Trump’s legacy Top Five Issues by Party -Banker Reputation -Policy Environment -Legislative Impact Community Banks Constantly Battle an Unearned Reputation
Wall Street banks But…. Credit unions Community Federal Reserve Bankers Have Since Payday lenders Distinguished Credit card companies Themselves Mortgage banks
Fannie, Freddie and Farm Credit However, Don’t Celebrate Just Yet ↑ Corporate taxes White House Community ↑ CU business lending Congress Diversity mandates Banks Postal banking Regulators Empowered CFPB Expanded Fed mission
29 The New Leadership in DC Biden/Harris
• COVID, economic recovery, infrastructure, immigration, climate, housing, taxes, oversight, diversity/inclusion/equity/social justice Pelosi (D-CA) and Schumer (D-NY) – Tone, agenda, schedule votes Congressional Waters (D-CA) and Sherrod Brown (D- Democrats OH) • “Housing, housing, housing” • Oversight hearings • D&I, climate, consumers, Wall Street, crypto $2.3T over eight years
• Roads, bridges, airports, waterways • Broadband, cyber Infrastructure • Electric vehicles, climate, housing (Phase 1) $2T in offsetting corporate tax increases • Corp rate rises from 21% to 28% • 15% minimum tax • Foreign-earned income • Capped deductions $1.8T for “social infrastructure” • Paid family leave, pre-K, nutrition, ACA expansion, no-cost community college
Offsetting Taxes Infrastructure (Phase 2) • Tax rate on incomes above $400K to 39.6% • Capital gains • Payroll Tax, Wealth Tax, Financial Transaction Tax? • *Legislative vehicle: “budget reconciliation” Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) • Approached FHLBs in March 2020 –Could legislation help the FHLBs help their members? • We responded with five recommendations –Three related to collateral –Two related to LOC
Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) • Accepted our five recommendations • But added two provisions • Would triple our annual mandatory grant contributions • Double AHP • Plus a new community The Senator development grant program Responded funded with 10% of earnings • Minimum annual contribution of $300M
• Draft bill was pending for 14 months but…. “FHLB Mission Implementation Act” Introduced on May 19 • Cannabis banking • SCOTUS ruling on FHFA’s Other Issues leadership structure Impacting • CRA applied to non- Bankers banks • Mortgage forbearance • Foreclosure moratoriums
Questions and Comments