Copyright by Georges Fadi Comair 2013 The Dissertation Committee for Georges Fadi Comair Certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: A New Approach for Water Planning, Management and Conflict Resolution in Lebanese Transboundary Basins: Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Variation and Water Policy Development Committee: Daene C. McKinney, Supervisor David R. Maidment Ben R. Hodges David J. Eaton Michael Scoullos A new approach for water planning, management and conflict resolutions in Lebanese transboundary basins: Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Variation and Water Policy Development by Georges Fadi Comair, B.S.C.E.; M.S. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin May, 2013 Dedication To my Grandfathers: General Georges Joseph Comair, M.D. and Robert Khoury-Helou, Ph.D. Je dédie cette thèse de doctorat à mes grands-pères: Dr. Général Georges Joseph Comair et Dr. Robert Khoury-Helou. Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere and endless gratitude to my supervisor and mentor Dr. Daene McKinney. During, my time at the University of Texas, Dr. McKinney provided me excellent guidance, and support, his expertise helped me better understand water planning and management in transboundary basins. Dr. McKinney allowed me to work on great projects and travel the world. My deep appreciation and gratitude to Dr. David Maidment, Dr. Ben Hodges, Dr. David Eaton and Dr. Michael Scoullos for being members of my dissertation committee. I thank them for their support first as teachers and also for their kind words of encouragement and valuable comments that helped me write this dissertation. Special thanks to the University of Texas at Austin and the Global Water Partnership Mediterranean (GWP-Med) directed by Professor Michael Scoullos who provided the necessary funding to conduct my research. I thank Professor Scoullos for his expertise and the endless help he provided me during my research on Transboundary Rivers of Lebanon. Thank you very much Dr. Howard Liljestrand for nominating my dissertation to the Outstanding Dissertation Award at UT. Thank you Jean Francois Donzier General Secretary of INBO for inviting me to present my work at the General Assembly of the Mediterranean Network of Basin Organizations. I am deeply grateful to my parents Fadi and Claude and sisters Joelle and Christelle for their support and love throughout this journey since December 31st 2005 when I first came to the USA. Thank you for believing in me and helping me reach my goals in life. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to Father Milad Yaghi, Lynn, Alberto and Hani Tohme, Rita and Nabil Joubran, Ellen and Imad Salem, June and v Morris Davis as well as Liz and Khaled Sawaya for their love and support since I first started. I will never forget your hospitality, encouragement and support you gave me. I love you and I consider you my second family in the USA. Special thanks to my dear friend Gonzalo Espinoza, I appreciate his friendship not only because we worked together on fascinating research, but because we had an awesome time while traveling to Mexico, playing soccer, and talking about family, world history and life in general. Also special thanks to Dr. Samuel Sandoval Solis my dear friend who encouraged me during this research and from whom I learned how to use the WEAP software, I will never forget his hospitality and excellent advice and expertise he gave me during my journey at UT. Also I would like to thank my friends, reviewers and co-authors of journal articles: Prabhas Gupta, Raquel Flinker, Harish Sangiredy, Fernando Salas, Daniel Siegel, Gihye Shin, Chris Ingenloff, my dear friend Dr. Andrew Davis Assaf, and Dr. Ralf Klingbeil. It was an honor working with you. This dissertation is also dedicated to my dear professors and friends at the University of Houston, Stanford University, the University of Texas at Austin and Lebanon many thanks I will never forget you: Dr. Jerry Rogers, Dr. Kyle Strom, Dr. Steven Tannous, Dr. Stephen Monismith, Francesco Joubran, Zade Faraj, Eric Smith, Adrian Castillo, Larissa da Costa, Cedric Chidiac, David Saiz, Alejandro Montoya, Miguel Patino, Philip Landry, Arturo Orozco, Vanessa Perez, Vince Tamborello, Edward Alper, Gavin MacGarva, Ivan Prock, Dan Whitt, John Basbagill, Keith Candelaria, Damaris Galindo, John Schicheng Xu, Jonathan Lau, Karla Gleichauf, Vinayak Shetty, Collin Cronkite, Carlos Galdeano, Denny Rivas, Alexandre Martinez, Ahmad Tavakoly, Haegon Kim, Anne Mikelonis, Aurore Mercelat, Sedat Yalcinkaya, Duaij Alrukaibi, vi Arielle Mimouni, Elisabeta Poci, Farith Diaz, Arthur Rizak, Marcelo Somos, Jason Allard, Eusebio Blanco, Elias Yazbeck, Elias Hajjar. Many thanks to my aunt, uncles and cousins: Dr. Nayla Obeid, Dr. Andre Khoury-Helou, Guy Khoury-Helou, Father Dominique Khoury-Helou, Dr. Joseph Comair, Zeina and Ziad Obeid. Thanks to the excellent CRWR staff: Sharon Bernard, Susan Swanson-Cartright, Marcy Betak and Scott Hammock. Finally, very special thanks to my friends, water directors and advisors of the Lebanese Ministry of Energy and Water, Jordanian Ministry of Water and Irrigation and Palestinian Water Authority. Thank you Minister Dr. Shaddad Attili and Deeb Saleh for helping me understand the real situation in Palestine, Dr. Fadi Comair, Mona Fakih, Marwan Saade, Abbas Fayad, Milad Malah and Dr. Fayez Bataineh. vii A new approach for water planning, management and conflict resolutions in Lebanese transboundary basins: Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Variation and Water Policy Development Georges Fadi Comair. Ph.D. The University of Texas at Austin, 2013 Supervisor: Daene C. McKinney The Hasbani and Orontes Rivers are two main transboundary rivers of Lebanon. These waters are a critical resource for the future water security of the co-riparians. This dissertation analyses results of a water resources planning and hydrologic model under a new participatory framework by studying hydro-political aspects and the vulnerability of water resources in the Hasbani basin of Lebanon and the city of Amman under a changing climate pattern and growing water demands. Water policies suggested by the stakeholders were analyzed and the most sustainable solution was presented to the water resources authorities in the basins. Moreover, because of the political situation in the region, field data such as rainfall and evapotranspiration are very difficult to obtain making the use of remote sensing and Geographic Information System very useful to present a complete description of the hydrology of the watersheds and study water availability in the Orontes and Jordan River Basins. The approach used in this research integrates recently compiled data derived from satellite imagery (evapotranspiration, rainfall, and digital elevation model) into a transboundary geospatial database and hydrologic model to measure the contribution of each riparian country to the total available water in the basin. Finally, a mathematical method called the Orontes water allocation optimization method is used based on the nine factors of the UN Convention viii on the Law of Non-navigational Use of International Water Courses to allocate water equitably between the co-riparians. The optimization results show that Turkey and Lebanon could benefit from additional water if new negotiations are initiated. Once a multilateral agreement occurs, the findings of this research would provide a useful guide to the co-riparians for policy formulation, decision making and dispute resolution. Cooperation between the riparian countries may be improved by building a GIS database that provides access to accurate data for hydrological analysis, facilitate and standardize data sharing to evaluate future policy alternatives. ix Table of Contents List of Tables ....................................................................................................... xiii List of Figures ...................................................................................................... xvi Chapter 1 Introduction .............................................................................................1 1.1 Situation and issues ...................................................................................5 1.2 Research Objectives ..................................................................................7 1.3 Dissertation Outline ..................................................................................8 1.4 Contribution to the State of the Art ...........................................................8 Chapter 2 Literature Review ..................................................................................10 2.1 Cooperation and conflict resolution in the Orontes and Jordan River Basins ..............................................................................................................10 2.2 Historical overview of transboundary agreements .................................13 2.3 Hydrological data access in the Middle East ..........................................18 2.4 Hydrological and water planning models in the Jordan River Basin......19 2.5 Hasbani and Orontes river basin characteristics .....................................21 Chapter 3 Hasbani Basin ........................................................................................26 3.1 Data for Hasbani Basin ...........................................................................26