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Water Scarcity and Future Challenges for Food Production

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Water Scarcity and Future Challenges for Food Production Water 2015, 7, 975-992; doi:10.3390/w7030975 OPEN ACCESS water ISSN 2073-4441 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Review Water Scarcity and Future Challenges for Food Production Noemi Mancosu 1,2,*, Richard L. Snyder 3, Gavriil Kyriakakis 2 and Donatella Spano 1,2 1 Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DipNeT), University of Sassari, Via De Nicola 9, Sassari 07100, Italy; E-Mail: [email protected] 2 IAFES Division, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Sassari 07100, Italy; E-Mail: [email protected] 3 Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, USA; E-Mail: [email protected] * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel.: +39-079-229231. Academic Editor: Athanasios Loukas Received: 2 December 2014 / Accepted: 9 February 2015 / Published: 10 March 2015 Abstract: Present water shortage is one of the primary world issues, and according to climate change projections, it will be more critical in the future. Since water availability and accessibility are the most significant constraining factors for crop production, addressing this issue is indispensable for areas affected by water scarcity. Current and future issues related to “water scarcity” are reviewed in this paper so as to highlight the necessity of a more sustainable approach to water resource management. As a consequence of increasing water scarcity and drought, resulting from climate change, considerable water use for irrigation is expected to occur in the context of tough competition between agribusiness and other sectors of the economy. In addition, the estimated increment of the global population growth rate points out the inevitable increase of food demand in the future, with an immediate impact on farming water use. Since a noteworthy relationship exists between the water possessions of a country and the capacity for food production, assessing the irrigation needs is indispensable for water resource planning in order to meet food needs and avoid excessive water consumption. Keywords: internal and external water resources; agricultural water demand; land grabbing; water footprint; water for food; sustainable water use Water 2015, 7 976 1. Introduction As the most important resource for life, water has been a central issue on the international agenda for several decades. Nowadays, many areas of the world are affected by water scarcity [1]. The projected increase of the world population growth rate [2] suggests that higher food demand is expected in the future, with a direct effect on agricultural water usage. In addition, as a result of the increased water scarcity and drought due to climate change [3], extensive water use for irrigation is expected to occur in the context of increasing competition between agriculture and other sectors of the economy. In order to cope with future estimates of water shortages, some measures aimed at streamlining and optimizing the efficiency of water consumption in the agricultural sector are critical in view of the large volumes of water required for the production of crops. Irrigation is used to replace losses due to crop evapotranspiration and to achieve full production under the given growing environment [4]. Irrigation, however, is also applied to combat pests through products diluted in the water, for frost protection of sensitive crops, to apply nutrients that are dissolved in the water, to improve the physical properties of land, to remove excess salinity from the soil and to modify the soil pH. Since the balance between water demand and water availability has reached critical levels in many regions of the world and increased demand for water and food production is likely in the future, a sustainable approach to water resource management in agriculture is essential. The sustainable water management concept refers to all practices that improve crop yield and minimize non-beneficial water losses. In addition, biofuel production is increasingly competing with food production, and this trend could reduce water resources and food availability [5]. The implications for water for food are evident. In this context, the aim of this article is to provide a broad review of several water-related issues, including virtual water trade, water availability and future demand scenarios, and to propose potential solutions to cope with water scarcity for food production. 2. Basic Concepts of Water Resources In addition to its quantitative and physical dimensions, the concept of water resources comprises also qualitative socio-economic and environmental dimensions. Water is divided in two types of resources: renewable and non-renewable water resources. Groundwater and surface water, such as the average flow of rivers on a yearly basis, are considered renewable water resources, whereas deep aquifers, which do not have a significant replenishment rate on the human time scale, are deemed non-renewable water resources [6]. Water is also distinguished in terms of supply. Blue water is the liquid water above and below the ground (rivers, lakes, groundwater), and green water is the soil water in the unsaturated zone derived from precipitation [7]. The portion of water that is directly used and evaporated by rainfed agriculture, pastures and forests is defined as green water. Thus, green water flow has two components: The productive part, or the transpiration involved in biomass production in terrestrial ecosystems, and the non-productive part, or evaporation [8]. Blue and green water are both viewed as renewable resources in the broad sense; however, only blue water is assessed in the strict sense. Water 2015, 7 977 A method for assessing the renewable water resources by country was first described in 1996 [9]. It computes the total renewable water resources (TRWR) of a country and assesses the dependency ratio from neighboring countries. The TRWR are the sum of internal renewable water resources (IRWR) and external renewable water resources (ERWR). Those indexes have been defined by FAO [6], and a brief description follows. IRWR are the volume of water resources (surface water and groundwater) generated from precipitation within a country or catchments. Surface water flows can contribute to groundwater replacement through seepage in the riverbed. On the other hand, aquifers can discharge into rivers and contribute to their base flow, the only source of river flow during dry periods. Sometimes, these two concepts overlap, although surface water and groundwater are typically studied separately. ERWR are considered resources that enter from upstream countries through rivers or aquifers. ERWR are separated into two categories: natural and actual ERWR. The natural ERWR are equal to the volume of the average annual flow of rivers and groundwater that enter into a country from neighboring countries, while the actual ERWR consider the incoming flow and outflows that derive from upstream and downstream countries through formal or informal treaties. Therefore, the actual resource is related to the amount of flow shared with neighboring countries (geopolitical country constraints). All of these considerations and analyses are necessary to understand how countries depend on the water resources of their neighbors. The ratio between the ERWR and TRWR gives the dependency ratio of a country, an indicator that expresses the part of the water resources originated outside the country. The dependency ratio ranges between 0%, where there is no dependency on external water, to 100%, where a country totally depends on the water resources from neighboring countries [6]. The total freshwater resources in the world are estimated to be in the order of 43,750 km3 year−1, distributed throughout the world; at the continental level, America has the largest share of the world’s total freshwater resources, with 45%, followed by Asia with 28%, Europe with 16%, and Africa with 9% [6]. In terms of resources per inhabitant in each continent, America has 24,000 m3 year−1, Europe 9300 m3 year−1, Africa 5000 m3 year−1 and Asia 3400 m3 year−1 [6]. However, at the country level, there is an extreme variability in terms of TRWR. For 19 countries or territories (e.g., Morocco, Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Maldives, Malta, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen), the TRWR per inhabitant are less than 500 m3 [6], the threshold that corresponds to the water scarcity levels proposed by Falkenmark [7], with Kuwait probably being the worst case (10 m3 per inhabitant) [6]. In terms of IRWR, North Africa and the Middle East are the most critical cases, with values that range from 0 to 1000 m3 year−1 per person (Figure 1), where the threshold of 1000 m3 per inhabitant is considered the water stress level. Water 2015, 7 978 Figure 1. World map of internal renewable water resources (IRWR) per country in 2012 (data from World Bank Group [10]). 3. Growing Demand of Water for Food Nowadays, “scarcity” is one of the adjectives most related to the word “water”; thus, many studies and projects focusing on the assessment of global water demand and its availability have been developed. In fact, water demand has reached critical levels in many areas of the world, especially in countries with limited water availability. The misuse of water resources, the lack of infrastructures to supply water and also climate change are some of the reasons for water scarcity, despite the vast amount of water on the planet. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report states that the magnitude of stress on water resources is expected to increase as a consequence of climate change, future population growth and economic and land-use change, including urbanization. According to the scenarios described in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [3,11], changes in precipitation and temperature may lead to changes in runoff and water availability, which, in turn, could affect crop productivity [3]. The physical, chemical and biological properties of freshwater lakes and rivers will be affected by the increase in temperature [3].
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