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North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Chair: Jason Choe Committee Chair: Person ‘year Director:

Committee Name PMUNC 2015

Contents

Chair’s Letter………………………………………………………...…..3

Topic A: ………………………..……………..……………..……..……4

On the geophysical and geopolitical dynamics of the Arctic………….……………4 History of Arctic Activity…………………………………………….….…………5 Economic Opportunities in the Arctic……………………………………………...5 Recent Events………………………………………………..…………...…………6 Possibilities to Consider…………………………………………………………….7 Positions………………………………………..………………………….…..……7 Sources……………...... ………………………..…………………….....…...8

Topic B: …………………………………………..……………………...9

Background…………………………………………………………………..…..…9 The Crimean Crisis in Ukraine…………….………………………………...……11 Other Considerations………………………………………………………..…….12 Sources……………...... ………………………………..……………………..…13

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Chair’s Letter

Dear Delegates,

Welcome to another year of PMUNC! My name is Jason Choe, and I will be your chair for the NATO committee. I am currently in my junior year here, majoring in economics and obtaining certificates (what most other universities call minors) in finance, political economy, and environmental studies. I got involved with the PMUNC conference last year when I served as one of the Under-Secretary Generals, but I’ve always loved chairing and interacting with delegates in person over handling background logistics. Outside of MUN, I also edit the newspaper, handle the finances of a science journal, work as a research assistant for a couple of professors, and (try to) cook tasty food as a member of a co-op on campus. Feel free to inquire about campus life if you’re interested! In regards to the committee at hand, you are presented with two opportunities. On the one hand, we have the Arctic, a traditionally ignored yet vitally important component of our biosphere. This region lies on the cusp of radical change; different forces seek to militarize it or economically develop it (or, in some cases, economically develop it through the often-unwarranted expansion of influence), and NATO has the power and obligation to ensure that long-term safety in the region is established for posterity. On the other hand, a few thousand miles away, the world is still reeling from the (ongoing) repercussions of the Ukraine crisis of 2014. Ukraine’s membership in the Organization has been an on-and-off consideration since 2008, but, following more recent events, it would behoove us to reconsider a potential extension of membership to this beleaguered country. In both topics, any action or endeavor will require extensive debate to identify the benefits, as well as the potential effects, that such collective NATO action will or may have. I look forward to meeting you all soon, and I hope you find this experience rewarding and engaging!

Best, Jason Choe

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Topic A: Militarization Notably, of the officially and Economic identified Arctic-bounding countries Development of the listed above, all but two are members of Arctic NATO (since Greenland is a member through , only Russia and Though generally disregarded when Sweden are not member states). This compared in importance to other international demarcation of the Arctic is continents, the Arctic is seeing renewed further complicated by the fact that interest as a bastion of natural resources, existing statutes (like the UN Law of the and different forces (on the national and Sea Convention), as well as international level) are coalescing their disagreements over exact borders, render powers (or seeking to extend their the exact delineation of “the Artic” from influence in case of a lack thereof) in the a geopolitical standpoint (as opposed to region. a geophysical perspective) rather more complex. On the geophysical and geopolitical dynamics of Arctic engagement

“The Arctic” is usually referred to in passing to generalize a region that lies somewhere about the current magnetic North Pole. From a geographic perspective, the Arctic for the rest of this topic shall encompass the North Pole and the immediately surrounding Arctic Ocean as well as partial regions of the USA (via Alaska), , Finland, Denmark, Greenland, , , Russia, and Sweden.

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extraction, particularly in regards to oil History of Arctic Activity and natural gas. By some estimates, there may be as much as 30 billion The history of Arctic exploration is long barrels of oil and 220 trillion cubic feet and storied, stretching all the way back of natural gas. For comparison, in 2013, to the exploits of the Ancient Greek the annual world oil consumption totaled sailor Pytheas in the year 325 BCE. about 33 million barrels of oil in all. On Through subsequent periods, including top of nonrenewable resources, the the Middle Ages, the Renaissance and Arctic could also provide plentiful the Age of Discovery, the Scientific renewable energy, particularly in the Revolution, and up until the modern day, forms of wind, tidal, and geothermal the Arctic has remained one of the least energies. Specific atmospheric pressure understood surface regions of our globe, patterns (like the Aleutian Low or the to which scientists flock. Real Siberian High, each in turn driven by advancements began to flourish after solar heat) can drive largely-predictable 1909, however, when Robert Peary wind patterns, while a combination of claimed to become the first person to lunar magnetic influence and irregular reach the North Pole (albeit in an thermal heating of water (again driven unconfirmed journey). by the sun) can produce waves. th Through the rest of the 20 Furthermore, by virtue of the unique st century and into the 21 , newer geography of the region, geothermal technological advancements enabled power is a potentially vast reservoir of ever-greater forays into the arctic energy. territories. Outside of the energy sector, the Arctic is also an important route for Economic Opportunities in the Arctic shipping trajectories, as well as a

valuable source of wild fish populations. Among the most prominent of Moreover, the region holds a large discoveries was the realization that the quantity of minerals including iron ore, Arctic could be a veritable mother lode copper, nickel, phosphate, and gold, of natural resources for energy which can be accessed by both

5 Committee Name PMUNC 2015 conventional mining techniques (via Russian administration for a 50 billion land drilling) and less conventional dollar bailout), casting doubt on the methods (like offshore extraction). veracity and integrity of their statements. Lastly, the Arctic is a burgeoning tourist It has also been postulated, not attraction, a possibility that may be without reason, that an expansion of precluded if international stability is not economic interests in any hitherto secured in the region. unclaimed region (like the arctic) logically necessitates military assistance Recent Events to enforce and protect such interests. It is then equally concerning that the Russian A slew of national and international government has taken two particular research efforts in the Arctic over the steps. past decades have begun to taper off. Firstly, Sergei Donskoi, the This withdrawal is largely attributable to minister of natural resources and the the Western sanctions on Russia environment, announced that Moscow following the events in Crimea of would petition the United Nations in the Ukraine. spring to extend its Arctic boundaries As Western nations ceased to further north. In total, the requested provide supplies for joint Arctic territorial expansion totals some 1.2 endeavors, however, Russian million square kilometers and involvement in the region has only encompasses roughly five billion grown. In particular, state-owned energy additional barrels of oil. enterprises – like the oil giant Rosneft The Russian administration has, and the natural gas behemoth Gazprom – in roughly the same time, announced its have actually been ramping up their plans to expand its military presence in forays following the dearth of Western the far north with the creation of a fifth involvement. They purport to seek only military command (on top of the existing opportunities for future energy sector four branches currently in existence). growth, but many find it troubling that Though it is not officially supposed to the companies are in dire financial straits manifest until 2017 or later, the mere (one of them has recently petitioned the possibility still poses concerns for the

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(albeit pending) militarization of the and how much of the natural resources area. In the interim, Russian forces have should be sustainably (or not) parceled begun conducting exercises in the area out? Moreover, what types of economic as such until the planned new force development should be pursued – long- comes into effect. term infrastructural, or short-term resource extraction? And how might Possibilities to Consider different goals be achieved? More broadly, what should Although the plan for Russian NATO envision as its long term goals mobilization of armed forces does not for the development of the Arctic? constitute in and of itself a declaration of Should development (either of a military war, nor does it necessarily portend or or of an economic nature) even occur preclude the possibility of armed and be encouraged in the first place? violence in the area, it does suggest that the NATO members should at least take Positions the issue into consideration and plan for contingencies. Unsurprisingly, the majority of the In this instance, delegates should Western bloc (many countries of which consider the many facets of the problem. are also members of NATO) consider For one, should NATO respond to Russia’s military ventures into the arctic military action (should it arise) with to be disturbing at best, and threatening equal action? And, if so, how might such at worst. However, given the Western a task force be organized, and of whom sanctions against Russia (following the would it be composed? Crimean crisis in Ukraine), much of the On the other hand, how might the Western involvement in the Arctic has NATO member states take action to been effectively halted or withdrawn. ensure a peaceable solution conducive to Western nations must thus consider if all involved parties and beneficial to and how to approach the issue without every nation? If economic development necessarily reneging on their agreed- of the area were to occur, how might the upon sanctions of the Arctic territories. rights to natural resources be allocated,

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It is a fitting requisite that the move. The question remains, however, member states of NATO are, for the of how the NATO states will respond. most part, economically developed, post- Sources industrial societies with the http://www.cfr.org/arctic/strategy- advance-arctic-economy/p27258 technological capacities to explore (and ostensibly militarize or develop) the http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproj ect/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=5&aid=2 Arctic. However, for less economically http://www.jamestown.org/program inclined states (which also conveniently s/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5 are the ones most geographically D=43064&cHash=9c531cc0c50a96c2100 e4970d72ec6a8#.VfeX9kJEj8k displaced from the north pole and its surrounding environs), the issue of the http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/ru ssian-sanctions-china-and-the-arctic/ matter is less about how to respond than http://arcticjournal.com/politics/174 about how to become more involved and 7/arctic-time-sanctions vested in the issue at all. Exploration of http://www.military.com/daily- new regions, many claim, should be a news/2015/03/12/us-lawmakers- task undertaken by the entirety of russias-military-build-up-in-the- arctic.html humankind, so holistic inclusion of all interested parties may be another consideration to factor in. For Russia, a major player in the issue, the desire to expand borders and to obtain greater energy potential may simply be just an attempt at boosting its domestic economy. While it is understandable that such expansion would benefit from military protection to cement the hegemony of Moscow over the area, the conscientious proposal to expand Russian militarization so close to the borders of a large cohort of NATO states does appear to be a politically bold

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Topic B: Conferring an , and the ) extension of NATO are the founders of the group. membership to Ukraine 2009 After the recent events that began in October of 2014 involving Russian 1949 aggressions in the Crimean region of Ukraine, it would appear prudent 2004 seriously to reconsider the possibility of Canada allowing Ukraine to join the North 1949 Atlantic Treaty Organization as a full- fledged member, with all the rights and 2009 responsibilities such membership would entail. 1999

Denmark (and, through Denmark, Background Greenland) 1949 As stipulated by Article 10 of the NATO charter, a new member can only be 2004 inducted into the organization upon unanimous approval by all existing 1949 members. Currently, there are 28 members of NATO; below is a list of the 1955 states as well as the years that they officially joined. Of the 28 current 1952 members, the 12 from 1949 (including Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, 1999 Iceland, , , the Iceland , Norway, , the 1949

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Italy It is worth noting that, besides 1949 unanimous approval, a prospective member willing to join NATO must also 2004 satisfy two criteria. Firstly, the nation must be a European country willing to 2004 abide by and uphold the principles of the Luxembourg Washington treaty; they must also fulfill 1949 political, economic, and military goals Netherlands that make the country a suitable 1949 candidate, one that can both contribute Norway and benefit from inclusion in NATO. In 1949 addition, approval by existing members can be conditional – which is to say that 1999 the approval can come attached with Portugal contingencies and strings (within reason) 1949 that the would-be member must be willing to fulfill. 2004 There have been no further 2004 extensions of membership since 2009. However, Ukraine has had a complicated 2004 history of considering and petitioning for membership on-and-off since 1994. 1982 In 1994, Ukraine became the first Commonwealth of Independent states 1952 (CIS) country to enter NATO’s United Kingdom program, and, 1949 throughout the next decade, Ukraine United States would often cooperate on joint 1949

10 Committee Name PMUNC 2015 endeavors with NATO efforts in the began in October of 2014) and new region. parliamentary elections in the same month, the government reversed its In 2008, Ukraine first applied for position, reneged on its non-aligned NATO membership via the Membership status, and renewed its appeal to join Action Plan (MAP), but, following the NATO. Notably, post-2014, a majority 2010 electoral cycle, the newly of the Ukrainian citizenry saw NATO as empowered government (under then- a force for protection, a significant president Victor Yanukovych) opted to change since just half a decade earlier. exclude "integration into Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership" from The Crimean Crisis in Ukraine the country's national security strategy. Following the events of the By withdrawing Ukraine’s application to Euromaidan, during which then- NATO, the administration hoped to president Yanukovych was ousted by preserve its political non-alignment. The protestors following his decision to decision benefited from the fact that, at suspend his government’s plans to the time, over 40 percent of the finalize an association agreement with Ukrainian population (a plurality) saw the European Union, turmoil spread NATO as a threat, while 33 percent were across much of the country. In particular, ambivalent and another 17 percent saw unrest built up in the Russophone- NATO as a force for protection. dominated eastern and southern regions With the Euromaidan unrest in of the country that had supported early 2014, Yanukovych fled the Yanukovych before his forcible removal country, leaving the government in the from power. In the early months of hands of an interim government steered 2014, they interfered with the decisions by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, which initially of the Ukrainian parliament, whom they sought to preserve the precedent of non- said increasingly did not represent them, alignment. and one of Crimea’s major cities – Sevastopol – illegally elected a Russian However, following Russian citizen as mayor. military incursions into Crimea (which

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Moreover, the protestors began express their will”), NATO also took to demand a referendum that would steps to expand its military presence in allow them to rejoin Russian Eastern . jurisdiction. Since the fall of the USSR, However, by March 18, Crimea Ukraine had maintained a policy and Russia formally met in the Kremlin whereby Crimea kept its “sovereignty” (without the blessings of the Ukrainian under Ukrainian governance, but the administration) to finalize the referendum would essentially require annexation. By March 19, Ukrainian Ukraine to abdicate any political claims forces were ousted from their military over Crimea. bases in the region, and Ukraine During the same time frame, formally withdrew its forces. Ultimately, Russian military forces seized the though, many in Ukraine still feel that Supreme Council (Crimean parliament), Crimea was forcibly conquered by and a new, decidedly pro-Russian Prime Russia. Minister ascended to the position. What Other Considerations many claim to be a dubiously legitimate administration held a referendum, and, It is also worth observing that Russia, as of March 16, found that Crimea was though not a member state of NATO, is to rejoin the Russian Federation. On actually a participant in the NATO-led March 18, a treaty was signed at the Partnership for Peace endeavor. Kremlin officially to initiate Russia’s Established in 1994 to allow non- annexation of Crimea (although Putin member states to cooperate and jointly disputes the use of the phrase, preferring operate with NATO in limited to call it a “free expression of their [the capacities, Russia’s involvement may citizens of Crimea] will…”). prove to be a sticky point for Ukraine’s potential addition. Amid expanded Russian military presence in Crimea (reportedly for the From the perspective of Ukraine purpose of “ensuring the conditions for only, NATO delegates must decide the people of Crimea to be able to freely

12 Committee Name PMUNC 2015 whether it would be prudent to invite it maintain security and provide support to join or not. for eventual stabilization, whether by allowing Ukraine to (perhaps The main questions would prematurely) join NATO or by providing essentially boil down to whether Ukraine third-party logistic support, military aid, is deemed to possess sufficient economic and infrastructural capacity. development, political stability, and military clout not only to benefit from One final perspective to consider inclusion in NATO, but also to would be that of Russia, and some contribute to NATO’s activities around analysts believe that a Ukrainian the Atlantic and around the world. membership in NATO will only stoke Russian aggressions even further. The question is particularly prudent now that the cease fire, penned Sources roughly half a year ago (in March), http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ seems to be failing; another nine deaths ukraine-crisis/beyond-crimea-what- does-rest-ukraine-think-n49261 occurred in Eastern Ukraine in May of 2015 as a result of renewed fighting and http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive /topics_50349.htm an upsurge of violence in the region. http://www.latimes.com/world/euro Many, including high-level officials in pe/la-fg-ukraine-russia--20150527- the Ukrainian government (including story.html

President Petro Poroshenko), have http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02 expressed both an eagerness to join /16/world/europe/a-ukraine-city-spins- NATO and a somber understanding that beyond-the-governments- reach.html?_r=1 Ukraine does not, as of yet, possess the modern military armaments nor the http://www.aljazeera.com/news/e urope/2014/03/warning-shots-end-osce- economic stability that serve as crimea-entry-bid- prerequisites for induction. Nonetheless, 20143815135639790.html it would behoove the committee to give http://sputniknews.com/politics/2 serious consideration to how NATO can 0150917/1027146549/nato-ukraine- best serve the citizens of the region to neutrality-security.html

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http://www.rt.com/news/259089- russia-boost-military-crimea/

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