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ΛCDM Cosmology: Successes, Challenges, and Opportunities for Progress Joel Primack, UC Santa Cruz

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ΛCDM Cosmology: Successes, Challenges, and Opportunities for Progress Joel Primack, UC Santa Cruz Dark Matter 2016 UCLA's 12th Symposium on Sources and Detection of Dark Matter and Dark Energy in the Universe ΛCDM cosmology: successes, challenges, and opportunities for progress Joel Primack, UC Santa Cruz ! Successes: CMB, Expansion History, Large Scale Structure ! Challenges: Cusp-Core, Too Big To Fail, Satellite Galaxies ! Opportunities for Progress Now: Halo Substructure by GalaxiesGravitational Lensing and Stellar Motions, Early GalaxiesGalaxies, Reionization, Galaxies in the Cosmic Web This series of conferences started in 1992 In my talk at the February 1992 conference at UCLA, I reported on research with my former PhD student Jon Holtzman (now chair of the NMSU Astronomy Department). Holtzman used and improved the code that George Blumenthal and I had written to calculate the linear power spectrum for CDM for our Blumenthal, Faber, Primack, & Rees 1984 Nature paper, “Formation of Galaxies and Large Scale Structure with Cold Dark Matter.” In his 1989 dissertation, Holtzman calculated 96 variants of CDM, and then he and I compared the predictions with all the available large scale data such as galaxy distributions and velocities and galaxy cluster abundance. In February 1992, I reported that the available data favored two models in particular, Cold + Hot DM (with "CDM = 0.8 and "# = 0.2) and ΛCDM (with "CDM = 0.3 and "$ = 0.7, the current values). At Aspen in summer 1992, UCLA professor Ned Wright told me that he had practically fallen off his chair when I said that, since he had used Holtzman’s thesis results to analyze the COBE DMR data, released April 29, 1992, and he had found that the same two CDM variants were favored. 1992ApJ...396L..13W 1992ApJ...396L..13W one of two CDM models in our 1984 Nature paper (the other had "CDM = 0.2) The other two favored CDM variants were Cold + Hot DM (with "CDM = 0.8 and "# = 0.2) ΛCDM (with "CDM = 0.3 and "$ = 0.7, the current values). ΛCDM won with the 1998 discovery of accelerated expansion and high-z galaxies. Matter and Energy Content of the Universe Imagine that the entire universe is an ocean of dark energy. On that ocean sail billions of ghostly ships made of dark matter... Matter and Energy Content of the Dark Universe Matter Ships on a ΛCDM Dark Double Energy Dark Ocean Imagine that the entire universe is an ocean of dark Theory energy. On that ocean sail billions of ghostly ships made of dark matter... Planck Collaboration: Cosmological parameters PlanckPlanck Collaboration: Collaboration: The ThePlanckPlanckmissionmission Planck Collaboration: The Planck mission 6000 6000 Angular scale 5000 90◦ 500018◦ 1◦ 0.2◦ 0.1◦ 0.07◦ Planck Collaboration: The Planck mission European 6000 ] 4000 2 ] 4000 2 K Double K µ [ µ 3000 [ 3000Dark TT Space TT 5000 D D 2000 2000Theory Agency 1000 1000 ] 4000 2 Cosmic 0 K 0 PLANCK 600 Variance600 60 µ 60 [ 3000 300300 30 TT 30 TT 0 0 Satellite D 0 0 D ∆ D Fig. 7. Maximum posterior CMB intensity map at 50 resolution derived from the joint baseline-30 analysis of Planck, WMAP, and ∆ -300 -300 408 MHz observations. A small strip of the Galactic plane, 1.6 % of the sky, is filled in by-30 a constrained realization that has the same statistical properties as the rest of the sky. 2000 -600 -60-60 Data -600 Temperature-Temperature 22 1010 3030 500500 10001000 15001500 20002000 25002500 Released 1000The Planck 2015 temperature power spectrum. At multipoles ` 30 we show the maximum likelihood frequency averaged Fig.Fig.Fig. 9. 9. 10.ThePlanckPlanck TT2015power temperature spectrum. power The points spectrum. in the At upper multipoles panel show` 30 the we maximum-likelihood show the maximum estimateslikelihood of frequency the primary averaged CMB temperature spectrum computed from the Plik cross-half-mission likelihood≥≥ with foreground and other nuisance parameters deter- temperaturespectrum computed spectrum{ as computed described from in the the textPlik forcross-half-mission the best-fit foreground likelihood and nuisance with foreground parameters and of other the Planck nuisance+WP parameters+highL fit deter- listed February 9, mined from the MCMC analysis of the base ⇤CDM cosmology. In the multipole range 2 ` 29, we plot the power spectrum minedin Table from5. The the red MCMC line shows analysis the of best-fit the base base⇤⇤CDMCDM cosmology. spectrum. The In the lower multipole panel shows range the 2 residuals` 29, with we plot respect the powerto the theoretical spectrum 2015 estimatesestimates from the Commander component-separationcomponent-separation algorithm algorithm computed computed over over 94 94 % % of of the the sky. sky. The The best-fit best-fit base base⇤CDM⇤CDM theoretical theoretical spectrummodel. The fitted0 error to barsthe Planck are computedTT+lowP from likelihood the full covariance is plotted in matrix, the upper appropriately panel. Residuals weighted with across respect each to band this (see model Eqs. are36a shownand in spectrum fitted to the Planck TT+lowP likelihood is plotted in the upperFig. 8. Maximum panel. posterior Residuals amplitude Stokes Q ( withleft) and U ( respectright) maps derived to from thisPlanck observations model between are 30 and shown 353 GHz. in 36b), and include2 beam uncertainties10 and50σ uncertainties500 in the foregroundThese1000 model mapS have been parameters. highpass-filtered with1500 a cosine-apodized filter between ` = 202000 and 40, and the a 17 % region of the Galactic2500 thethe lower lower panel. The error error bars bars show show 11σ uncertainties.uncertainties. From FromPlanckPlanck Collaborationplane Collaboration has been replaced with a XIII constrained XIII( Gaussian2015(2015 realization). ). (Planck Collaboration IX 2015). From Planck Collaboration X ±± Multipole moment,(2015). viewed as work in progress. Nonetheless, we find a high level of 8.2.2. Number of modes consistency in results between the TT and the full TT+TE+EE likelihoods. Furthermore, the cosmological parameters (which One way of assessing the constraining power contained in a par- 100 ticular measurement of CMB anisotropies is to determine the 140 do not depend strongly on ⌧) derived from the TE spectra have comparable errors to the TT-derived parameters, and they are e↵ective number of a`m modes that have been measured. This The temperature angular power spectrum of the primary CMB from Planck] , showing a precise measurement of seven acoustic peaks,/ that Fig. 19. consistent to within typically 0.5 σ or better. Polarization-is equivalent to estimatingPolarization 2 times the square of the total S N Temperature-Polarization 2 are well fit by a simple six-parameter ⇤CDM theoretical model (the model plotted80 is the one labelled [Planck+WPin the power+highL] spectra, a measure in Planck that contains all Collaborationthe available K ] 70 2 XVI (2013)). The shaded area around the best-fit curve represents cosmic variance,µ 16 including the sky cut used. The error bars on individual points 5 K 60 − also includeµ cosmic variance. The horizontal axis is logarithmic up to ` = 50, and linear beyond. The vertical scale is `(` + 1)Cl/2⇡. The measured [ 0 spectrum shown here is exactly the same as the one shown in Fig. 1 of Planck[10 Collaboration40 XVI (2013), but it has been rebinned to show better TE the low-` ` region. D EE -70 ` 20 Double Dark Theory C 0 Double Dark Theory -140 Angular scale tected by Planck over the entire sky, and which therefore con- 9010◦ 18◦ 1◦ 0.2◦ 0.1◦ tains both4 Galactic and extragalactic objects. No polarization in- EE ` 6000TE ` 0 0 formationC is provided for the sources at this time. The PCCS D ∆ 5000 ∆ -10 di↵ers-4 from the ERCSC in its extraction philosophy: more e↵ort has been made on the completeness of the catalogue, without re- 30 500 1000 1500 2000 30 500 1000 1500 2000 ] 4000 ducing notably the reliability of the detected sources, whereas 2 ` ` K the ERCSC was built in the spirit of releasing a reliable catalog µ [ 3000 Fig. 10. Frequency-averaged TE (left) and EE (right) spectra (withoutsuitable fitting for quick for T– follow-upP leakage). (in The particular theoretical withTE theand short-livedEE spectra Fig.Fig. 10. 11.Frequency-averagedPlanck T E (left) andTEEE(leftspectra) and (right)EE (right computed) spectra as (withoutdescribed fitting in the for text.T– TheP leakage). red lines The show theoretical the polarizationTE and spectraEE spectra from plottedD in the upper panel of each plot are computed from the best-fitHerschel modeltelescope). of Fig. 9. Residuals The greater with amount respect of to data, this theoretical di↵erent selec- model plottedthe2000 base in⇤ theCDM upperPlanck panel+ ofWP each+highL plot aremodel, computedwhich from is fitted the to best-fit the TT model data only of Fig.. 9. Residuals with respect to this theoretical model areare shown shown in the lower panel panel in in each each plot. plot. The The error error bars bars show show 1tionσ1 σerrors. processerrors. The The and green thegreen improvementslines lines in inthe the lower lower in thepanels panels calibration show show the and the best-fit map-best-fit temperature-to-polarization leakage model, fitted separately to the±± TE and EE spectra. From Planck Collaboration XIII (2015). temperature-to-polarization1000 leakage model, fitted separately to the makingTE and EE processingspectra. (references)From Planck help Collaboration the PCCS XIII to( improve2015). the performance (in depth and numbers) with respect to the previ- 0 2 10 50 500 1000 1500 2000 ous ERCSC. 4 cosmologicalcosmological informationMultipole if if we we assume assumemoment, that that the the anisotropies anisotropies are are andandThe 96 96 000 sources 000 modes, modes, were respectively. respectively. extracted4 fromFromFrom the this 2013 this perspective perspectivePlanck thefrequency the2015 2015 purelypurely Gaussian Gaussian (and hence hence ignore ignore all all non-Gaussian non-Gaussian informa- informa- mapsPlanckPlanck (Sect.datadata 6), constrain constrain which approximatelyinclude approximately data acquired 55 %55 more % over more modes more modes than than intwo in Fig.tiontion 20.
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