Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update

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Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update Final Report November 2012 Prepared by GL Hearn Limited 20 Soho Square London W1D 3QW T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 F +44 (0)20 7851 4910 glhearn.com Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update, November 2012 Contents Section Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 1 INTRODUCTION 31 2 DEFINING THE SUB REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET 33 3 POLICY CONTEXT 47 4 HOUSING STOCK & SUPPLY TRENDS 57 5 SOCIO ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS 73 6 HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS 97 7 NEED FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING 115 8 FUTURE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS 157 9 REQUIREMENTS FOR DIFFERENT SIZES OF HOMES 207 10 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 251 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: SUSSEX COAST SUB-REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET 15 FIGURE 2: AFFORDABLE HOUSING STOCK, 2007 & 2011 16 FIGURE 3: HOUSEHOLD INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY OR RENT A 2-BED PROPERTY 19 FIGURE 4: HOUSEHOLDS IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (2011-16) 20 FIGURE 5: NEED FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (2011-16) 22 FIGURE 6: PROPOSED MIX OF AFFORDABLE HOMES 24 FIGURE 7: MAIN DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS FOR SUSSEX COAST HOUSING MARKET, 2011-31 25 FIGURE 8: STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKETS DEFINED IN CLG RESEARCH 35 FIGURE 9: LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS DEFINED IN CLG RESEARCH 36 FIGURE 10: NET INTERNAL MIGRATION: 2005-10 37 FIGURE 11: NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, 2005-10 37 FIGURE 12: COMBINED NET MIGRATION 38 GL Hearn Page 2 of 264 J: \Planning\Job Files\J027340 - Coastal West Sussex SHMA\Reports\Final Reports - Jan 2013\Final SHMA Main Report (22-02-13-nxi).doc Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update, November 2012 FIGURE 13: GROSS MIGRATION FLOWS BETWEEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES 39 FIGURE 14: PRICES FOR A STANDARD PROPERTY, SPRING 2012 41 FIGURE 15: HIERARCHY OF HOUSING MARKETS 43 FIGURE 16: SUB-AREAS USED IN THIS REPORT 44 FIGURE 17: HOUSING STOCK, 2011 57 FIGURE 18: CHANGES TO HOUSING STOCK, 2001-11 58 FIGURE 19: TENURE, 2011 58 FIGURE 20: AFFORDABLE HOUSING STOCK, 2007 AND 2011 59 FIGURE 21: TENURE, 2001 59 FIGURE 22: TENURE BY SUB-AREA, 2001 60 FIGURE 23: TENURE CHANGES ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST, 2000-2010 61 FIGURE 24: HOUSE TYPES, 2001 61 FIGURE 25: HOUSE TYPE PROFILE – SUB-AREAS 62 FIGURE 26: SIZE OF HOMES, 2001 63 FIGURE 27: SIZES OF HOMES – SUB-AREAS 64 FIGURE 28: DWELLINGS BY COUNCIL TAX BAND, 2011 65 FIGURE 29: DWELLINGS BY COUNCIL TAX BAND – SUB-AREAS 66 FIGURE 30: OVERCROWDING & UNDER-OCCUPATION, 2001 66 FIGURE 31: VACANCY, 2011 67 FIGURE 32: SECOND AND HOLIDAY HOMES, 2007 67 FIGURE 33: SECOND AND HOLIDAY HOMES BY SUB-MARKET, 2008 68 FIGURE 34: NET HOUSING COMPLETIONS, 2003/4 – 2010/11 69 FIGURE 35: NET COMPLETIONS, 2001/2 – 2010/11 69 FIGURE 36: HOUSING COMPLETIONS BY SIZE OF PROPERTY, COASTAL WEST SUSSEX 70 FIGURE 37: HOUSING COMPLETIONS BY SIZE OF PROPERTY, DISTRICTS (2006-11) 71 FIGURE 38: INDEX OF POPULATION GROWTH ACROSS THE HOUSING MARKET AREA 73 FIGURE 39: INDEX OF POPULATION GROWTH 2000-10, DISTRICTS 74 GL Hearn Page 3 of 264 J: \Planning\Job Files\J027340 - Coastal West Sussex SHMA\Reports\Final Reports - Jan 2013\Final SHMA Main Report (22-02-13-nxi).doc Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update, November 2012 FIGURE 40: POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE 2010 75 FIGURE 41: POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE 2010 – DISTRICTS 75 FIGURE 42: ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF POPULATION, 2009 76 FIGURE 43: CHANGES IN ETHNIC COMPOSITION, 2001-2009 77 FIGURE 44: HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, 2008 77 FIGURE 45: CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, 1998-2008 78 FIGURE 46: CHANGES IN THE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE, 1998-2008 79 FIGURE 47: ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY (GVA PER HEAD), 1997-2009 80 FIGURE 48: WORKPLACE EARNINGS (FULL-TIME WORKERS) 81 FIGURE 49: EARNINGS DIFFERENTIALS, 2011 82 FIGURE 50: COMMUTING DYNAMICS, 2008 83 FIGURE 51: JOBS DENSITY, 2007 AND 2010 84 FIGURE 52: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, 2008-10 85 FIGURE 53: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2000-10 86 FIGURE 54: SELF-EMPLOYMENT 87 FIGURE 55: BUSINESS DENSITY, 2010 87 FIGURE 56: ECONOMIC STRUCTURE – COASTAL WEST SUSSEX, 2010 88 FIGURE 57: EMPLOYMENT RATE 90 FIGURE 58: EMPLOYMENT RATE – COASTAL WEST SUSSEX 91 FIGURE 59: UNEMPLOYMENT, OCT 2010-SEP 2011 92 FIGURE 60: JSA CLAIMANTS, MARCH 2012 92 FIGURE 61: QUALIFICATIONS OF RESIDENT ECONOMICALLY-ACTIVE POPULATION, 2010-11 93 FIGURE 62: OCCUPATIONAL PROFILE, 2010-11 94 FIGURE 63: UNDERSTANDING HOUSING DEMAND 97 FIGURE 64: LONG-TERM HOUSE PRICE TRENDS, UK & SOUTH EAST 99 FIGURE 65: MORTGAGE ADVANCES, UK 100 FIGURE 66: DEPOSIT REQUIREMENTS AS PERCENTAGE OF PURCHASE PRICE, UK 101 GL Hearn Page 4 of 264 J: \Planning\Job Files\J027340 - Coastal West Sussex SHMA\Reports\Final Reports - Jan 2013\Final SHMA Main Report (22-02-13-nxi).doc Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update, November 2012 FIGURE 67: AFFORDABILITY OF MARKET HOUSING – MORTGAGE PAYMENTS AS PERCENTAGE OF INCOME 102 FIGURE 68: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES, 1996-2007 103 FIGURE 69: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE, 2008-11 104 FIGURE 70: HOUSE PRICES BY PROPERTY TYPE 105 FIGURE 71: HOUSE PRICE DIFFERENTIALS RELATIVE TO SOUTH EAST AVERAGE (SPRING 2012) 106 FIGURE 72: PRICES & PRICE CHANGES FOR A STANDARD PROPERTY 107 FIGURE 73: QUARTERLY SALES TRENDS, 1997-2008 108 FIGURE 74: SALES BY PROPERTY TYPE, FEB-APRIL 2012 109 FIGURE 75: PEOPLE IN THEIR 20S LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED ACCOMMODATION, ENGLAND 111 FIGURE 76: FIRST-TIME BUYER AND BUY-TO-LET LENDING, ENGLAND 111 FIGURE 77: ENTRY-LEVEL PURCHASE PRICE BY DISTRICT 118 FIGURE 78: ESTIMATED ENTRY-LEVEL PURCHASE PRICE BY SUB-AREA 119 FIGURE 79: VOLUME OF PROPERTIES ADVERTISED FOR SALE 120 FIGURE 80: ENTRY-LEVEL PRIVATE RENTS BY DISTRICT 121 FIGURE 81: ESTIMATED ENTRY-LEVEL PRIVATE RENTS BY SUB-AREA (PCM) 121 FIGURE 82: VOLUME OF PROPERTIES ADVERTISED FOR RENT 122 FIGURE 83: MAXIMUM LHA PAYMENTS BY SIZE AND MARKET AREA 123 FIGURE 84: MONTHLY AVERAGE SOCIAL RENT LEVELS IN THE COASTAL WEST SUSSEX HMA 123 FIGURE 85: COST OF AFFORDABLE RENTED HOUSING BY SIZE AND SUB-AREA (PER MONTH) 124 FIGURE 86: AVERAGE SOCIAL RENT AS PROPORTION OF LOWER QUARTILE MARKET RENT 124 FIGURE 87: INDICATIVE INCOME REQUIRED TO PURCHASE/RENT WITHOUT ADDITIONAL SUBSIDY 125 FIGURE 88: DIFFERENCES IN INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY/RENT, 2011 (2 BEDROOM) 126 FIGURE 89: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN COASTAL WEST SUSSEX (2011) 127 FIGURE 90: HOUSEHOLD INCOME LEVELS BY DISTRICT 127 FIGURE 91: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN COASTAL WEST SUSSEX HMA 128 FIGURE 92: LOWER QUARTILE PRICE INCOME RATIOS BY SUB-AREA (PRICES BASED ON 2 BED HOME) 129 GL Hearn Page 5 of 264 J: \Planning\Job Files\J027340 - Coastal West Sussex SHMA\Reports\Final Reports - Jan 2013\Final SHMA Main Report (22-02-13-nxi).doc Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update, November 2012 FIGURE 93: ESTIMATED PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS UNABLE TO AFFORD MARKET HOUSING WITHOUT SUBSIDY 130 FIGURE 94: OVERVIEW OF BASIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL 131 FIGURE 95: HOUSING REGISTER APPLICANTS BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 132 FIGURE 96: HOUSING REGISTER HOUSING NEED BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 133 FIGURE 97: ESTIMATED CURRENT HOUSING NEED (BACKLOG) BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 134 FIGURE 98: ESTIMATED BACKLOG NEED BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 135 FIGURE 99: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED FROM NEWLY FORMING HOUSEHOLDS (FIVE YEAR PERIOD) BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 137 FIGURE 100: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS (2011-16) BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 138 FIGURE 101: ESTIMATED FUTURE AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (2011-16) BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 139 FIGURE 102: ANALYSIS OF PAST HOUSING SUPPLY - ADUR 140 FIGURE 103: ANALYSIS OF PAST HOUSING SUPPLY - ARUN 141 FIGURE 104: ANALYSIS OF PAST HOUSING SUPPLY - CHICHESTER 141 FIGURE 105: ANALYSIS OF PAST HOUSING SUPPLY - WORTHING 142 FIGURE 106: ESTIMATED SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING FROM EXISTING STOCK (2011-16) BY DISTRICT (AND SUB-AREA) 143 FIGURE 107: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (2011-16) EXCLUDING PIPELINE 144 FIGURE 108: ESTIMATED AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (2011-16) INCLUDING PIPELINE 145 FIGURE 109: NUMBER OF PEOPLE CLAIMING LHA IN PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR (SEPTEMBER 2009 AND DECEMBER 2011) 146 FIGURE 110: ESTIMATED LHA SUPPORTED LETTINGS IN THE PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR TO UNIQUE HOUSEHOLDS OVER FIVE YEARS 146 FIGURE 111: CATEGORIES OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING USED FOR ANALYSIS 150 FIGURE 112: INCOME RANGE FOR ACCESS TO INTERMEDIATE HOUSING 150 FIGURE 113: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED (2011-16) BY TYPE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (NUMBERS) 151 FIGURE 114: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED (2011-16) BY TYPE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (%) 152 FIGURE 115: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED (2011-16) BY TYPE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (PERCENTAGES) – INTERMEDIATE/AFFORDABLE RENT THRESHOLD SET AT 70% OF MARKET COSTS 153 GL Hearn Page 6 of 264 J: \Planning\Job Files\J027340 - Coastal West Sussex SHMA\Reports\Final Reports - Jan 2013\Final SHMA Main Report (22-02-13-nxi).doc Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update, November 2012 FIGURE 116: LHA LEVELS AT MEDIAN AND 30TH CENTILE (JUNE 2010) 154 FIGURE 117: OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY 158 FIGURE 118: PAST TRENDS IN NET MIGRATION (2000-2010) 160 FIGURE 119: FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH IN GVA, 2011-31 161 FIGURE 120: FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2011-31 161 FIGURE 121: INTERACTION BETWEEN DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC FORECASTS 162 FIGURE 122: FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR, COASTAL WEST SUSSEX 163 FIGURE 123: FORECAST CHANGES IN RESIDENCE-BASED EMPLOYMENT, 2011-31 164 FIGURE 124: POPULATION OF COASTAL WEST SUSSEX HMA (5 YEAR AGE BANDS) – 2011 165 FIGURE 125: AGE PROFILE (2011) – SUSSEX COAST HOUSING MARKET 166 FIGURE 126: AGE PROFILE (2011) – WIDER HOUSING
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