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2021 Annual Energy Paper

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2021 Annual Energy Paper EYE ON THE MARKET 2021 Annual Energy Paper MICHAEL CEMBALEST | JP MORGAN ASSET AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT Future shock. Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consumption. In this year’s energy paper, we review why decarbonization is taking so long: transmission obstacles, industrial energy use, the gargantuan mineral and pipeline demands of sequestration and the slow motion EV revolution. Other topics include our oil & gas views, President Biden’s energy agenda, China, the Texas power outage and client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, low energy nuclear power, hydrogen and carbon accounting. MICHAEL CEMBALEST Eye on the Market Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy J.P. Morgan Asset Management Welcome to our 11th annual energy paper. Each year, we examine what’s happening on the ground as the fourth great energy transition unfolds. Our main focus this year: why is the transition taking so long? Deep decarbonization plans assume massive changes in electric vehicles, electricity transmission grids, industrial energy use and carbon sequestration, but each faces headwinds often not accounted for by energy futurists. As shown below, many prior forecasts of the renewable transition were too ambitious since they ignored energy density, intermittency and the complex realities of incumbent energy systems. We follow up with an update to our bullish oil and gas call from last year and examine Biden’s energy agenda. We discuss China’s rare earth metals diplomacy, US distributed solar power and conclude with last words on the Texas power outage and answers to client questions on electrified shipping, sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen and carbon accounting. As always, I would like to acknowledge the insights and oversight provided by our technical advisor Vaclav Smil, who has patiently guided my energy journey since this paper’s inception 11 years ago. This effort has been one of the most rewarding experiences in my 34 years at JP Morgan. Overly ambitious forecasts of the 4th great energy transition Renew able share of US primary energy consumption Lines start when forecasts were made and end in year of forecast 50% 1 4 1 Physicist Bent Sorensen 40% 2 Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute 5 6 3 Carter Administration (solar only) 30% 2 7 4 Clinton Presidential Advisory Panel 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 20% 3 6 Google 2030 Clean Energy Plan 10% 7 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Actual renewable share of US primary energy 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 In 2020, Mark Jacobson (Stanford) forecast 80% by 2030 Source: EIA, listed authors, Vaclav Smil, JPMAM. 2019. Renew ables include w ind, solar, hydropower, geothermal, biomass, w ood and waste. 1 Executive Summary President Biden just announced a new GHG emissions target: a 50% decline by 2030 vs a 2005 baseline. This very ambitious target implies a decarbonization pace in the next 10 years that’s four times faster than in the last 15 years. Even with the amount of money the administration plans to dedicate to the task, it’s an enormous hurdle. In this paper, we will be discussing some of the reasons why. The Biden plan: halving emissions from 2005 to 2030 A shift in energy intensive manufacturing to the emerging GHG emissions, billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent world, % of global production 8 100% 90% Emerging economies 7 80% 70% 6 60% 50% 5 40% 30% 4 Biden 2030 plan 20% 10% 3 Developed economies 0% 1995 2019 1998 2020 1998 2019 1998 2020 2005 2019 2 Manufacturing Ammonia Steel Cement Plastic 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: UN Dept. of Social and Economic Affairs, Worldsteel, PlasticsEurope, Source: EPA, UN, JPMAM. 2019. USGS. 2020. The even more important and larger question: even if the US succeeds, what about everyone else? Over the last 25 years, the developed world shifted much of its carbon-intensive manufacturing of steel, cement, ammonia and plastics to the developing world. As a result, developing world adoption of wind, solar, storage and nuclear power may end up being the primary determinant of future global emissions outcomes. That has certainly been the case over the last decade: Europe and Japan reduced primary energy use1 by 4%-6% but developing world increases were 6x higher than their reductions; China/India energy use is still soaring; and Africa’s energy use is rising from per capita levels seen in Europe in the 19 th century. The world gets more energy efficient every year, but levels of emissions keep rising. That’s why most deep decarbonization ideas rely on replacement of fossil fuels rather than reducing fossil fuel consumption per capita or per unit of performance. Change in primary energy use, past and future Global CO2 intensity declining, CO2 emissions rising Million tonnes of oil equivalent Tonnes of CO2 / thousand $2019 GDP Billion tonnes 800 0.60 35 Historical change 2010 to 2019 0.55 600 Projected change 2019 to 2040 CO2 intensity CO2 emissions 30 0.50 400 0.45 25 200 0.40 0.35 20 0 0.30 EU Japan US Latin SE Asia Middle Africa China India 15 America ex- East -200 Ch/India 0.25 0.20 10 -400 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: International Energy Agency Stated Policies Scenario. 2020. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Conference Board. 2020. 1 Primary energy refers to thermal energy contained in fossil and biomass fuels and also to thermal equivalents of primary electricity generated from nuclear and renewable sources. Converting primary electricity to primary energy can be done by using its thermal equivalent (1 kWh=3.6 MJ or 3,412 BTU) or by using an average annual heat rate of fossil fuel plants (40% efficiency, equal to 9 MJ/kWh or 8,530 BTU). Final energy consumption is equal to primary energy less (a) energy lost in the conversion of fossil fuels (crude oil refining, natural gas processing) (b) energy lost in conversion of fossil fuels to electricity, (c) power plant consumption of electricity and (d) transmission losses. 2 How is the global energy transition going? Taken together, the aggregate impact of nuclear, hydroelectric and solar/wind generation reduced global reliance on fossil fuels from ~95% of primary energy in 1975 to ~85% in 2020. In other words, energy transitions take a long time and lots of money. The IEA expects fossil fuel reliance to decline at a more rapid pace now, fueled in part by “Big Oil” companies becoming “Big Energy” companies and by a faster global EV transition. In 2021 renewables are for the first time expected to garner more capital spending than upstream oil & gas. This process is influenced by diverging costs of capital: 3%-5% for solar and wind, 10%-15% for natural gas and up to 20% for oil projects. However, the IEA still projects that 70%-75% of global primary energy consumption may be met via fossil fuels in the year 2040. Why don’t rapid wind and solar price declines translate into faster decarbonization? As we will discuss, renewable energy is still mostly used to generate electricity, and electricity as a share of final energy consumption on a global basis is still just 18%. In other words, direct use of fossil fuels is still the primary mover in the modern world, as the demise of fossil fuels continues to be prematurely declared by energy futurists2. As shown in the last three charts, wind/solar capacity is growing and gains in renewable electricity generation are impressive, but in primary energy terms they are much smaller. The world uses fossil fuels for ~85% of its energy Average power purchase agreement prices for wind and % of global primary energy consumption from coal, oil and nat gas solar, Real 2019 $ per megawatt hour 100% $220 Pre-existing Global solar photovoltaic Note: PPAs reflect the hydropower $200 benefit of subsidies 95% $180 such as the US ITC $160 90% US solar $140 photovoltaic Nuclear $120 85% adoption IEA Stated era Solar/wind $100 Policies 80% era begins $80 Scenario $60 Global wind US wind 75% $40 $20 70% $0 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, IEA. 2020. Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, IRENA. 2020. Wind and solar capacity additions Wind and solar share of total electricity Wind and solar share of total primary energy y/y change, gigawatts generation, % consumption, % 70 18% 7% Europe Europe 60 16% 6% 14% 50 China 5% 12% China 40 Europe 10% US 4% US China 30 8% 3% 6% 20 India 2% India US 4% 10 India 2% 1% 0 0% 0% 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Source: BP Statistical Review of Energy. 2020. Source: BP Statistical Review of Energy. 2020. Source: BP Statistical Review of Energy. 2020. 2 An example: the CEO of the Rocky Mountain Institute wrote last year, citing Carbon Tracker, that post-COVID global fossil fuel consumption may never surpass 2019 levels. Really? The EIA projects a full recovery in liquid fuels consumption by 2022 and projects the same for natural gas. Global coal consumption is projected to decline by 240 million metric tons from 2019 to 2025, but the IEA’s projected increase for global natural gas consumption by 2025 of 390 billion cubic meters is 2.8x the decline in coal in energy (exajoule) terms.
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