Regional Residential Report City of Greater Bendigo

Regional Residential Report

City of Greater Bendigo If you would like to receive this publication in an accessible format, such as print, please telephone the Project Manager on 9637 9605, or email [email protected] This publication is also published in PDF and Word formats on www.dpcd.vic.gov.au

Published by the Victorian Government Department of Planning and Community Development, Melbourne, October 2010.

© The State of Victoria Department of Planning and Community Development 2010. This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968.

Authorised by Justin Madden, 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne Vic 3002.

ISSN 1834-3988

For more information visit http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/planning/

Disclaimer This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. Regional Residential Report

City of Greater Bendigo Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Contents

MINISTERS MESSAGE 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

1.0 INTRODUCTION 5 1.1 Purpose and Context 5 1.2 Regional Context 5 1.3 2009 Urban Development Program Reports 5

2.0 APPROACH & METHODOLOGY 7

3.0 RECENT ACTIVITY 11 3.1 Residential Building Approvals 12 3.2 Residential Lot Construction 13 3.2.1 Minor Infill Lot Construction 13 3.2.2 Major Infill Lot Construction 13 3.2.3 Broadhectare Lot Construction 13 3.2.4 Low Density Lot Construction 14 3.3 Residential land and House Prices 14

4.0 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY 17 4.1 Vacant lots 19 4.2 Minor Infill Supply 19 4.3 Major Infill Supply 20 4.4 Broadhectare Supply 20 4.5 Future Residential Land Supply 21 4.6 Low Density Supply 22 4.7 Low Density Overview Maps 23

5.0 PROJECTED DEMAND 29

6.0 ADEQUACY OF LAND STOCKS 31

7.0 RESIDENTIAL MAPS 33

8.0 RESIDENTIAL TABLES 41

GLOSSARY OF TERMS 57

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 59

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo L fTblesiST o a Table 3.1: Median Sales Price for Vacant Residential Allotments by Supply Type 14 Table 3.2: Median Sales Price for Separate Houses by Supply Type 14 Table 4.1: Residential Lot Potential by Supply Type, 2009 18 Table 4.2: Anticipated Lot Construction Activity – Major Infill, 2009 20 Table 4.3: Anticipated Lot Construction Activity – Broadhectare, 2009 21 Table 6.1: Estimated Years of Residential Land Supply 31 Table 8.1: Minor Infill Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09 42 Table 8.2: Major Infill Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09 43 Table 8.3: Broadhectare Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09 44 Table 8.4: Low Density Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09 45 Table 8.5: Minor Infill Lot Potential, 2009 46 Table 8.6: Major Infill Lot Potential and Anticipated Development Timing, 2009 47 Table 8.7: Broadhectare Lot Potential and Anticipated Development Timing, 2009 48 Table 8.8: Future Residential Land Supply (lots), 2009 49 Table 8.9: Residential Vacant Lot Stock by Zone Type, 2009 50 Table 8.10: Occupied and Vacant ‘Low Density’ Lot Stock, 2009 51 Table 8.11(a): Estimated and Projected Number of Households, 2006 to 2026 53 Table 8.11(b): Estimated and Projected Average Annual Change in the Number of Households, 2006 to 2026 53 Table 8.11(c): Estimated and Projected Average Annual Percentage Change in the Number of Households, 2006 to 2026 53 Table 8.12: List of Suburbs by SLA 55

List of Graphs Graph 3.1: Number of Residential Building Approvals, 2003 to 2009 12 Graph 3.2: Number of Residential Lots Constructed by Supply Type, 2005/06 to 2008/09 12 Graph 3.3: Average Annual Number of Minor Infill Lots Constructed by Suburb, 2005/06 to 2008/09 13 Graph 4.1: Stock of Vacant Residential Allotments, 2009 19 Graph 4.2: Stock of Vacant and Occupied ‘Low Density’ Allotments, 2009 22 Graph 5.1: Projected Demand for Residential Dwellings, 2006 - 2026 29

List of Low Density Overview Maps Overview Map 1: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Inner East SLA, 2009 23 Overview Map 2: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Inner North SLA, 2009 24 Overview Map 3: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Inner West SLA, 2009 25 Overview Map 4: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Part B (North East) SLA, 2009 26 Overview Map 5: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Part B (South West) SLA, 2009 27 Overview Map 6: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Strathfieldsaye SLA, 2009 28

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Minister’s message

I am pleased to launch the inaugural regional editions of the highly reputed Urban Development Program.

Established by the Victorian Government, the Urban Development Program is an initiative of the planning framework Melbourne 2030. The program aims to ensure there is sufficient residential and industrial land both in metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria to meet population growth, ensure a competitive land market and reduce pressure on housing affordability.

In June 2010, the Victorian Government released Ready for Tomorrow, a Blueprint for Regional and Rural Victoria, which seeks to ensure that regional Victoria can continue to grow, remain prosperous and deliver investment and better liveability outcomes.

The Blueprint’s long-term Regional Settlement Framework is for ‘A State of Many Choices’, which includes a settlement plan for regional Victoria that complements the Melbourne @ 5 Million policy, bringing together a comprehensive plan for the whole of the State.

This new approach helps to ensure that regional Victoria maintains its character, identity and sustainable way of life; that services and infrastructure keep pace with growth and economic development; and that growth is focused in places that have the capacity to accommodate and sustain higher populations. The Urban Development Program has been identified as a key component in assisting to deliver the outcomes of this approach across regional Victoria

One of the primary objectives of the Urban Development Program is to provide accurate and up-to-date information to assist the Victorian Government, local councils, infrastructure and service providers, and other major stakeholders in making informed decisions to help ensure an ongoing provision of land supply and supporting infrastructure for housing and employment requirements.

The Government is also speeding up the release of land in regional centres through place based projects. We are working with Councils to support planning for large scale growth in major regional areas such as the Ballarat West Growth Area and the Armstrong Creek Growth Area within Greater Geelong.

Additionally, the Regional Towns Development Program was introduced two years ago to help expedite the delivery of land for housing and employment across a number of these major areas. To date it has delivered Township Plans for Huntly and Strathfieldsaye within Bendigo, a Residential Infill Opportunities study for Ballarat, the Traralgon Inner South Masterplan in Latrobe City, and the Leneva Valley Design Guidelines in Wodonga.

With Victoria’s regional population growing at its highest rate since 1982, it is important to carefully plan for this growth by providing liveable and sustainable communities with housing and employment.

The expansion of the Urban Development Program across regional Victoria will help ensure that regional cities can continue to grow and prosper for future generations.

JUSTIN MADDEN MLC MINISTER FOR PLANNING

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 1 2 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Executive summary

The 2009 Urban Development Program for Regional Victoria provides an analysis of supply and demand for residential and industrial land across parts of regional Victoria. Initially, this covers the municipalities of Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Latrobe and Wodonga, but will cover other areas of regional Victoria in oncoming years. This component provides information on residential supply and demand for the municipality of Greater Bendigo. The following residential land supply assessment was undertaken by Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and commissioned by the Department of Planning and Community Development in conjunction with Regional Development Victoria and the Greater Bendigo City Council. It draws on important information and feedback obtained through a number of comprehensive consultations with key council officers, and Department of Planning and Community Development regional officers, undertaken through the course of the project.

Recent Activity

As measured from 2006/07 to 2008/09 residential building approval activity within the municipal area of Greater Bendigo has averaged 775 dwellings per annum, the amount of building approval activity as measured on an annual basis has been relatively consistent. The vast majority of building approvals (92%) over the last three years from 2005/06 have been for separate houses and 8% for semi-detached dwellings. From 2005/06 to 2008/09 there was an average annual residential lot construction of 518. The majority (45%) were minor infill lots, 24% were broadhectare, 24% major infill and 8% low density. Specifically: Minor infill lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 233 lots per annum; Major infill lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 123 lots per annum; Broadhectare lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 122 lots per annum; and Low density lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 40 lots per annum. In 2005/06 the median sales value for a vacant residential allotment was $85,000 in 2008/09 the median sales value of a vacant residential allotment remained constant. As measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09, the median sales value for a separate house increased by 1.1% per annum, increasing from $215,000 to $225,000 across the entire municipal area.

Projected Demand

From 2011 to 2016, Victoria in Future 2008 projections indicate that the average annual dwelling demand across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo will be 999; from 2016 to 2021 –1,009 per annum, declining to 960 per annum from 2021 to 2026. Victoria in Future 2008 based demand projections over the next 5 years for Greater Bendigo indicate that the current levels of dwelling construction activity are insufficient to meet potential demand. These demand projections are 29% greater than recent building approval activity (average 775 dwellings per annum between 2005/06 to 2008/09) and 92% greater than recent residential lot construction (average 518 lots constructed per annum between 2005/06 to 2008/09). If the current level of dwelling construction trends continues, the ‘years of supply’ as expressed in this analysis will be under estimated, as consumption of land for housing will be slower than indicated within the demand projections. The Urban Development Program will continue to monitor and report on residential land activity within Greater Bendigo, and report on ‘years of supply’ based on residential land supply levels, and potential shifts in demand for housing within this area.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 3 Identified Residential Land Supply

In total (excluding existing vacant residential lots) there is a residential lot supply of approximately 18,500. This is comprised of: 4,828 zoned broadhectare lots (26% of supply); 4,351 minor infill lots (24% of supply); 1,472 major infill lots (8% of supply); 1,944 vacant low density residential lots (11% of supply); and 5,909 designated future residential lots (32% of supply). As at July 2009 there was a total residential vacant lot stock of 1,708, 82% of which was zoned Residential 1 (R1Z). There were 25 lots zoned Mixed Use (MUZ) and 275 zoned Township (TZ). Within the municipal area of Greater Bendigo, there is an estimated lot potential within Future Residential areas of 5,909.

Years of Residential Land Supply

For zoned residential land stocks, it is estimated based on the identified supply and Victoria in Future 2008 demand projections; there are sufficient land stocks to satisfy 10 years of future demand. This is based on a zoned lot potential of 10,650 lots, of which: 4,828 lots are broadhectare; 4,351 are minor Infill; and 1,472 are major infill. For future residential land supply stocks, there is sufficient land to satisfy 5 years of projected demand. In total there is 15 years supply of residential land stocks across the municipality. In addition the vacant residential lot stock of 1,708 lots also constitutes around 1.7 years supply of vacant land.

Current Actions

Current proposed planning scheme amendments in the City of Greater Bendigo include: - Amendment C133 to the City of Greater Bendigo Planning Scheme ( Jackass Flat Structure Plan) proposes the rezoning of farming land to a Residential 1 Zone which creates a potential of around 600 lots associated to this rezoning; - Amendment C136 to the City of Greater Bendigo Planning Scheme (Huntly Township Plan) incorporates a proposed rezoning of approximately 300 hectares of land to a Residential 1 Zone with a potential of around 1,600 lots; - Amendment C137 to the City of Greater Bendigo Planning Scheme (Strathfieldsaye Township Plan) proposes a rezoning of 155 hectares of land to a Residential 1 Zone with a potential of around 1,600 lots. Combined, these amendments will create on completion an additional 4 years supply of residential land available for development within Greater Bendigo based on Victoria in Future 2008 projections. In total the City of Greater Bendigo has a 15 years supply of residential land; consistent with Clause 11.02-1 of the State Planning Policy Framework which aims to ensure that sufficient land is available to meet forecast demand; and accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period. However, Greater Bendigo City Council has identified the need to review the Bendigo Residential Strategy 2004 in the short- to-medium term, which would in turn address longer term residential supply requirements for the municipality.

4 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 1.0 Introduction

1.1 Purpose and Context

The Urban Development Program has been one of the Victorian Government’s major initiatives to support the strategic intent of its key planning document for metropolitan Melbourne, Melbourne 2030. The Urban Development Program was set up in 2003 to assist in managing the growth and development of metropolitan Melbourne and the Geelong region, and help ensure the continued sustainable growth of these areas in order to maintain their high levels of liveability. The primary purpose of the Urban Development Program is to improve the management of urban growth by ensuring that government, councils, public utilities and the development industry have access to up-to-date and accurate information on residential and industrial land availability, development trends, new growth fronts, and their implications for planning and infrastructure investment. The main purpose of the UDP is to provide accurate, consistent and updated intelligence on residential and industrial land supply, demand and consumption. This in turn assists decision-makers in: maintaining an adequate supply of residential and industrial land for future housing and employment purposes providing information to underpin strategic planning in urban centres linking land use with infrastructure and service planning and provision taking early action to address potential land supply shortfalls and infrastructure constraints contributing to the containment of public sector costs by the planned, coordinated provision of infrastructure to service the staged release of land for urban development. The information contained and reported within the Urban Development Program enables early action to be taken in areas where land shortfalls have been identified.

1.2 Regional Context

During 2009, the Urban Development Program was expanded across key provincial areas across regional Victoria. Initially, this covers the municipalities of Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Latrobe and Wodonga, but will be expanded to other key areas in oncoming years. An expanded Urban Development Program into regional Victoria will build local and regional data bases and, importantly, provide a platform for mapping and spatial analysis in each region. This will in turn allow councils and other key stakeholders in the planning and development sectors to make more informed decisions in the growth and investment of these key areas across regional Victoria. The residential land supply assessments for the municipalities of Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Latrobe and Wodonga were undertaken by Spatial Economics Pty Ltd, and commissioned by the Department of Planning and Community Development in conjunction with Regional Development Victoria and the City Councils of Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Latrobe and Wodonga. These areas form the initial expansion of the Urban Development Program across regional Victoria. Other areas will be incorporated into the Urban Development Program in oncoming years.

1.3 2009 Urban Development Program Reports

The 2009 Urban Development Program Reports for Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Latrobe and Wodonga, as well as the 2009 Urban Development Program Annual Report for metropolitan Melbourne and the Geelong region, are available online at www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/urbandevelopmentprogram Interactive online maps are also available. MapsOnline enables users to search for specific projects, generate reports and print or download maps and statistical reports. It allows users to search for specific land supply areas by region or municipality, estate name, Melway reference, street address or lot number. To access the UDP MapsOnline visit www.land.vic.gov.au/udp For more information about the Urban Development Program, email the Department of Planning and Community Development at [email protected]

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 5 6 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 2.0 Approach & Methodology

The following provides a brief outline of the major methodologies and approach in the assessment of recent residential lot construction, residential land supply, projections of demand and determining adequacy of land stocks. In addition, key definitions of terms used within the following assessment are detailed. Information is presented at both a Statistical Local Area (SLA) and suburb (VicMap locality boundaries) level. A table and associated map highlights the location of these boundaries, this is located within the data appendices. Note that for the purposes of this report the regional component of the expanded Urban Development Program is referred to as the ‘Regional Urban Development Program’.

Estimating future dwelling requirements

The Victorian Population and Household Projections 2006–2036, released by the Department of Planning and Community Development and outlined in Victoria in Future 2008, are used by the Regional Urban Development Program as the basis for determining projected demand for residential allotments. Demand information is assessed at both a municipal level and by the component Statistical Local Areas (SLAs). The Urban Development Program will continue to report on changes to projected demand levels within these areas, and incorporate updated Victoria in Future 2008 population and household projections as they become available.

Residential Land

In the following land supply assessments residential lot construction and land supply have been designated by differing supply types, namely: Vacant Lots: Existing residential vacant lots, sized less than 1,000sqm if zoned Residential 1 (R1Z) or no size limitation if zoned Mixed Use (MUZ) or Township (TZ). A vacant lot is defined as no existing habitable dwelling or ‘significant’ existing use, eg. playgrounds. Minor Infill: Undeveloped land within the existing urban area, zoned for residential development, and parent lot or existing lot less from 1,000sqm to 1ha. Major Infill: Undeveloped land within the existing urban area, zoned for residential development, and parent lot or existing lot greater than 1ha. Broadhectare: Undeveloped land generally located on the urban fringe, zoned for residential development (no previous urban development activity), and the parent lot greater than 1ha. Future Residential: Land identified by the relevant municipal authority for future residential development and current zoning not supportive of ‘normal’ residential development. Land which is has an ‘Urban Growth Zone’ applied, and a precinct structure plan has not yet been approved, falls into this category. Low Density: Land zoned Low Density Residential (LDRZ) or Rural Living (RLZ).

Residential Lot Construction

Residential lot construction has been determined via the processes established within the State Governments Housing Development Data project. It involves the extensive cleaning of the residential cadastre and the application of this cadastre to the land supply types identified above. A constructed lot is defined by the year of construction and the finalisation of certificate of title. Construction activity has been assessed on an annual basis as at July of each year from 2006 to 2009.

Vacant lots

As defined above. Vacant residential lots were identified via customised GIS software that has been developed by Spatial Economics, to visually recognise built structures as well as vacant allotments. The software has the ability to recognise via colour intensity and colour distribution associated with built structures and straight lines created by roof- lines. This combined with titling and zoning information allows the recognition of both built structures on a parcel by parcel basis, as well as the incidence of vacant lots.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 7 Lot Yields

Lot yields have been established on a parcel by parcel basis for the following land supply types: minor infill, major infill, broadhectare and future residential. In establishing the lot yield for each individual land parcel the following information was used: incidence and location of native vegetation, zoning, natural features such as creeks, old mineshafts, escarpments, floodways, localised current/recent market yields, existing studies such as structure plans, municipal strategic statements etc. In addition to site specific issues, ‘standard’ land development take-outs are employed, including local and regional. The amount /proportion of such take-outs are dependent on the site of the land parcel i.e. a 1ha site will have less take-outs than say a 50ha site. This approach has been utilised by both the residential and industrial land supply assessments since 2004 in the metropolitan Urban Development Program. Further intelligence and verification is sourced from local council planning officers. A small number of broadhectare supply sites have been allocated a zero lot yield because they were assessed as being unlikely to be developed over the next 15 years due to issues such as significant ownership fragmentation on relatively small parcels of land.

Development Timing

Staging for lot construction or development timing has been established for four broad time periods, namely: 1 to 2 years (2010–2011) 3 to 5 years (2012–2014) 6 to 10 years (2015–2019) 11 years or more (2020 and beyond). Land identified for development over the next 2 years is available for residential purposes, and the required permits to subdivide the land generally exist and are being implemented. Land parcels identified for development in 3 to 5 years are normally zoned, or may have rezonings finalised or approaching finalisation. They may also have permits to subdivide the land. Some degree of confidence can be applied to the timing and staging of these developments. Where land has been identified as ‘Future Residential’ there are no associated timings, as these cannot be confidently applied until such time the land is zoned to allow residential development to occur. Similarly, land which has been lies within an Urban Growth Zone, where a precinct structure plan has not been approved, falls into a similar category. At such time a precinct structure plan has been prepared and approved, potential timings of residential development associated to these areas can be applied with a higher degree of confidence. It should also be noted that timing of lot construction is cyclical, and highly dependent on underlying demand, economic cycles and industry capacity. This can mean that stated development intentions will vary from on-the-ground construction activity over time and by location. However, it is highly accurate in terms of the general direction and amount of growth. Development timings have only been established for both Major Infill land supply stocks and broadhectare land. Anticipated development timings are primarily sourced from existing planning permits, historic and current market activity, knowledge of industry capacity, projected demand and most importantly intelligence from local council staff.

8 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Low density

Low density residential allotments have been established via the assessment of the cadastre and zoning information. All allotments zoned either Rural Living (RLZ) and Low Density Residential (LDRZ) is included. Custom technology as described above was utilised to establish the stock of vacant low density allotments, this was subsequently verified via a manual process in conjunction with aerial imagery.

Assessing adequacy

A key purpose of the Regional Urban Development Program is to identify if sufficient residential land is available to meet projected dwelling requirements within the relevant municipal area. Sufficient stock of residential land is required to maintain an ongoing supply to the market and to contribute to: adequate competition in the land development market to avoid unnecessary upward pressure on land prices and housing affordability; and sufficient lead times for planning and service provision agencies to undertake appropriate strategic and infrastructure planning activities. For the purpose of reporting on the adequacy of residential stocks, the Regional Urban Development Program assesses the existing stock of residential land (Minor Infill, Major Infill, broadhectare and Future Residential) relative to projected demand. Adequacy of land stocks is presented by the number of years of supply. Years of supply is undertaken at both a municipal level (total) and by Statistical Local Area. Years of supply is expressed for both the total zoned stocks of identified residential land and future residential land stocks.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 9 10 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 3.0 Recent Activity

This section of the report covers the trends and shifts in building activity across the municipality of Greater Bendigo, and provides an insight into proposed future residential development activity. The information in this section has been compiled resulting from a number of comprehensive consultations with key representatives from the Greater Bendigo City Council. It is supported by datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Section 3 of the report details the recent activity in terms of residential lot construction, dwelling approvals and sales values achieved across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo. Residential lot construction activity is detailed from July 2006 to July 2009 and is presented at a suburb, Statistical Local Area (SLA) and municipal level. Residential lot construction is further analysed by supply type/location, namely: Minor infill; Major infill; Broadhectare; and Low density. Analysis of the median sales value achieved by supply type/location for both vacant land and separate houses is presented.

3.1 Residential Building Approvals

As measured from 2006/07 to 2008/09 residential building approval activity within the municipal area of Greater Bendigo has averaged 775 per annum, the amount of building approval activity as measured on an annual basis has been relatively consistent. Graph 3.1 illustrates the amount of building approval activity by dwelling type on a quarterly basis for the municipal area of Greater Bendigo. The vast majority of building approvals (92%) over the last three years from 2008/09 have been for separate houses and 8% for semi-detached dwellings. There were minimal approvals for units and apartments. The majority (24% or 185 per annum) of building approval activity since 2006/07 has been located within the Statistical Local Area (SLA) of Greater Bendigo – Inner West. Similarly, 21% or 172 building approvals per annum were located in the Inner North SLA. The Inner West SLA comprises the suburbs of Kangaroo Flat, Maiden Gully, Marong and Golden Square. The Inner North SLA comprises the suburbs of Epsom, Huntly, White Hills and Ascot. In summary of the amount of building approval activity for the other SLAs located within the municipality of Greater Bendigo: Strathfieldsaye - 13% of all building approvals or 104 per annum (suburbs include Strathfieldsaye, Junortoun and parts of Kangaroo Flat); Inner East – 13% of all building approvals or 99 per annum (suburbs include Strathdale, Flora Hill, Kennington and Spring Gully); Greater Bendigo Part B - 11% of all building approvals or 87 per annum (suburbs include Heathcote, Elmore, Goornong and Marong); Eaglehawk - 10% of all building approvals or 76 per annum (suburbs include California Gully and Eaglehawk); and Central - 8% of all building approvals or 60 per annum (suburbs include North Bendigo, Golden Square and Bendigo).

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 11 Graph 3.1: Number of Residential Building Approvals, 2003 to 2009

350

300

250

200

Dwellings 150

100

0 Sep-03 Dec-03 Jun-09 Jun-08 Jun-07 Jun-06 Jun-05 Jun-04 Sep-08 Sep-07 Sep-06 Sep-05 Sep-04 Dec-08 Dec-07 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-04 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04

Total Dwellings Separate Houses Semi-detached Units/Apartments

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue No. 8731.0

3.2 Residential Lot Construction

Analysis has been undertaken to determine on a lot by lot basis the location and amount of residential lot construction activity from Jul 2006 to July 2009. Lot construction activity has been classified into distinct supply types and or supply locations as defined above. Graph 3.2 summarises the amount of residential lot construction by supply type for the municipal area of Greater Bendigo.

Graph 3.2: Number of Residential Lots Constructed by Supply Type, 2005/06 to 2008/09

400

350

300

250

200

Number of lots of Number 150

100

0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Broadhectare Minor Infill Major Infill Low Density

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

From 2005/06 to 2008/09 there was an average annual residential lot construction of 518. The majority (45%) were minor infill lots, 24% were broadhectare, 24% major infill and 8% low density. In comparison to the annual volume of residential building approvals, residential lot construction varies considerably. Residential dwelling approvals since 2006 have averaged 775 per annum compared to 515 lots constructed. Via analysis of the vacant lot stock, lot construction activity, building approvals and consultation with municipal planning staff, it is considered that the difference between lot construction and building approvals is due to the construction of dwellings on existing residential lot stock.

12 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 3.2.1 Minor Infill Lot Construction

Minor infill lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 233 lots per annum. This represents 45% of all residential lot construction activity across the municipal area. Minor infill lot construction activity was extensively spread across the majority of the established urban area suburbs of Bendigo. However, there was relatively significant minor infill lot construction activity within the suburbs of Kangaroo Flat (14%), Golden Square (9%), North Bendigo (7%) and Kennington (7%). As measured annually from 2005/06 to 2008/09, the amount of minor infill lot construction activity has varied significantly. In 2005/06 there were approximately 372 minor infill lots constructed, declining to 65 in 2006/07, increasing to 275 lots in 2007/08 and 221 lots in 2008/09. Graph 3.3 summarises the average annual amount of minor infill lots constructed from 2005/06 to 2008/09 by suburb.

Graph 3.3: Average Annual Number of Minor Infill Lots Constructed by Suburb, 2005/06 to 2008/09

20 No. of Lots of No. 15

0 Huntly Epsom Elmore Marong Bendigo Ironbark Raywood Flora Hill Flora Heathcote Strathdale Long Gully White Hills White Quarry Hill Eaglehawk Kennington Spring Bully Sailors Gully Sailors Golden Gully Golden Maiden Gully East bendigo East West Bendigo West Kangaroo Flat Kangaroo North Bendigo Golden Square Golden Strathfieldsaye California Gully California Ascot (Bendigo) Ascot

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

3.2.2 Major Infill Lot Construction

Major infill lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 123 lots per annum. This represents 24% of all residential lot construction activity across the municipal area. There was relatively substantial major infill lot construction activity within the suburbs of Epsom (24%), Strathfieldsaye (16%) and North Bendigo (14%). As measured annually from 2005/06 to 2008/09, the amount of major infill lot construction activity has varied significantly. In 2005/06 there were approximately 134 major infill lots constructed, declining to 38 in 2006/07, increasing to 52 lots in 2007/08 and 270 lots in 2008/09.

3.2.3 Broadhectare Lot Construction

Broadhectare lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 122 lots per annum. This represents 24% of all residential lot construction activity across the municipal area. There was relatively substantial broadhectare lot construction activity within the suburbs of Maiden Gully (26%), Ascot (16%), Huntly and Kangaroo Flat (13%) respectively. As measured annually from 2005/06 to 2008/09, the amount of broadhectare lot construction activity has varied significantly. In 2005/06 there was approximately 149 broadhectare lots constructed, declining to 15 in 2006/07, increasing to 105 lots in 2007/08 and 220 lots in 2008/09.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 13 3.2.4 Low Density Lot Construction

Low density lot construction activity as measured from 2005/06 to 2008/09 across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo averaged 40 lots per annum. This represents 8% of all residential lot construction activity across the municipal area. There was relatively substantial low density lot construction activity within the suburbs of Heathcote (23%), Strathfieldsaye (18%) and Lockwood South (12%).

3.3 Residential Land and House Prices

Analysis has been undertaken in conjunction with the Department of Planning and Community Development to match sales information for both vacant land and separate house sales by supply location. In addition, sales values have been determined for the entire municipal area. Sales values are a key ‘outcome’ indicator that can assist in determining the ‘state of the land supply’ market. Table 3.1 and 3.2 summarise the median sales value of both vacant residential land and separate houses by supply type from 2005/06 to 2008/09. In 2005/06 the median sales value for a vacant residential allotment was $85,000 this increased to $97,000 in 2007/08 and declined to $85,000 in 2008/09. From 2005/06 to 2008/09, the median sales value for a vacant residential allotment remained constant. Whereas, the median sales value for broadhectare vacant lots increased by 0.4% per annum, vacant lots within major infill sites declined by 4.5% per annum and minor infill increased by 2.3% per annum.

Table 3.1: Median Sales Price for Vacant Residential Allotments by Supply Type

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Broadhectare $ 93,000 $ 88,000 $ 93,500 $ 94,450

Major Infill $ 77,000 $ 77,500 $ 80,250 $ 64,000

Minor Infill $ 75,000 $ 74,000 $ 90,000 $ 82,000

Greater Bendigo LGA $ 85,000 $ 86,000 $ 97,000 $ 84,950

Source: Victorian Valuer-General, Department of Planning and Community Development

Notes: Sale price data is only for vacant residential lots under 1,000sqm. Sales values are as at the nominal year. Supply location definitions refer to Approach/ Methodology. Total LGA sale values are for the entire municipality, not a total for the supply locations illustrated. Sales data within the stated supply areas are for vacant lots contained within the supply types. As measured from 2005/06 to 2009/09, the median sales value for a separate house increased by 1.1% per annum, increasing from $215,000 to $225,000. In 2008/09 the median sales value of a separate house located on a broadhectare development was $233,000, a 4% difference to the median sales value for all separate house sales across the municipality.

Table 3.2: Median Sales Price for Separate Houses by Supply Type

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Broadhectare na na na $ 233,000

Major Infill na na na na

Minor Infill $ 212,500 $ 225,000 $ 225,000 $ 215,000

Greater Bendigo LGA $ 215,000 $ 225,000 $ 225,000 $ 225,000

Source: Victorian Valuer-General, Department of Planning and Community Development

Notes: Sale price data is only for separate houses, it does not include flats, units etc. Sales values are as at the nominal year. Supply location definitions refer to Approach/Methodology. Total LGA sale values are for the entire municipality, not a total for the supply locations illustrated. Sales data within the stated supply areas are for separate house sales contained within the supply types.

14 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Summary & Conclusions

From 2005/06 to 2008/09 there was an average annual residential lot construction of 518. The majority (45%) were minor infill lots, 24% broadhectare lots, 24% major infill and 8% low density. As measured from 2006/07 to 2008/09 residential building approval activity within the municipal area of Greater Bendigo has averaged 775 per annum, the amount of building approval activity as measured on an annual basis have been relatively consistent. In 2005/06 the median sales value for a vacant residential allotment was $85,000 this increased to $97,000 in 2007/08 and declined to $85,000 in 2008/09. From 2005/06 to 2008/09, the median sales value for a vacant residential allotment remained constant. Whereas, the median sales value for broadhectare vacant lots increased by 0.4% per annum, vacant lots within major infill sites declined by 4.5% per annum and minor infill increased by 2.3% per annum. Analysis of the amount of building approvals, residential lot construction and price movements of vacant residential allotments indicates a functioning residential land market within Greater Bendigo.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 15 16 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 4.0 Residential Land Supply

Section 4 of the report details the stock (measured in lots) of residential land across the municipality of Greater Bendigo as at July 2009. Residential lot stock/supply is presented at a suburb, Statistical Local Area (SLA) and municipal level. Residential land supply is further analysed by supply type/location, namely: Vacant Lots Minor Infill; Major Infill; Broadhectare; Future Residential; and Low Density.

For both major infill and broadhectare land supply areas, anticipated lot construction timing is presented. This refers to the likely timing of lot construction, not dwelling construction.

‘Future Residential’ land refers to land identified by the relevant municipal authority for future residential development and current zoning not supportive of ‘normal’ residential development. Land which is has an ‘Urban Growth Zone’ applied, and a precinct structure plan has not yet been approved, falls into this category.

Table 4.1 details the residential land supply, measured in lots, by supply type across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo as at July 2009. In total (excluding existing vacant residential lots) there is a residential lot supply of approximately 18,500. This is comprised of: 4,828 zoned broadhectare lots (26% of supply); 4,351 minor infill lots (24% of supply); 1,472 major infill lots (8% of supply); 1,944 vacant low density residential lots (11% of supply); and 5,909 designated future residential lots (32% of supply).

Each of the supply types are further detailed below as well as a series of maps illustrating the supply locations and anticipated timing of development.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 17 Table 4.1: Residential Lot Potential by Supply Type, 2009

MINOR MAJOR BROAD FUTURE LOW SUBURB TOTAL INFILL INFILL HECTARE RES DENSITY ARGYLE 110 8 36 154 ASCOT (BENDIGO) 175 24 17 216 AXE CREEK 106 106 AXEDALE 148 148 BAGSHOT 605 16 621 BENDIGO 19 19 BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 27 27 CALIFORNIA GULLY 175 34 1 210 EAGLEHAWK 340 65 121 526 EAGLEHAWK NORTH 2 2 EAST BENDIGO 81 37 118 EMU CREEK 81 81 EPPALOCK 73 73 EPSOM 75 77 152 FLORA HILL 27 43 70 GOLDEN GULLY 2 10 12 GOLDEN SQUARE 235 287 42 1 565 GOORNONG 61 61 HEATHCOTE 629 305 250 1,184 HUNTLY 105 957 1,000 234 2,296 IRONBARK 15 15 JACKASS FLAT 14 599 585 2 1,200 JUNORTOUN 60 28 82 170 KANGAROO FLAT 268 185 584 250 48 1,335 KENNINGTON 106 0 106 LADYS PASS 7 7 LOCKWOOD 65 65 LOCKWOOD SOUTH 87 87 LONG GULLY 146 2 148 LONGLEA 109 109 MAIDEN GULLY 410 650 2,460 39 3,559 MANDURANG 56 56 MANDURANG SOUTH 76 76 MARONG 547 5 552 MOUNT CAMEL 9 9 MYERS FLAT 16 16 NORTH BENDIGO 144 16 4 164 QUARRY HILL 27 91 118 RAYWOOD 21 21 SAILORS GULLY 181 5 186 SEDGWICK 156 156 SPRING GULLY 191 54 28 273 STRATHDALE 94 11 2 107 STRATHFIELDSAYE 338 146 619 1,614 71 2,788 WELLSFORD 23 23 WEST BENDIGO 38 2 40 WHITE HILLS 328 121 28 477 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 4,351 1,472 4,828 5,909 1,944 18,504

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

18 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 4.1 Vacant lots

A detailed assessment utilising custom GIS software to detect the incidence and location of vacant residential lots was undertaken as at July 2009. A vacant residential lot is defined as any lot that is sized less than 1,000sqm, has no existing residential dwelling/or existing use and is zoned Residential 1(R1Z). In addition vacant lots zoned Township (TZ) and Mixed Use (MUZ) is identified however, no land size is specified. As at July 2009 there was a total residential vacant lot stock of 1,708, 82% of which was zoned Residential 1 (R1Z). There were 25 lots zoned Mixed Use (MUZ) and 275 zoned Township (TZ). The distribution of this vacant lot stock by suburb is illustrated in Graph 4.1. The suburbs with relatively high volumes of vacant lot stock tend to be the location of broadhectare style developments, such suburbs include: Kangaroo Flat – 229 lots; Epsom – 116 lots; Strathfieldsaye – 107 lots; California Gully – 105 lots; and Strathdale – 103 lots. The existing stock of vacant allotments has the potential to satisfy approximately 1.8 years of projected demand. The stock of vacant lots relative to the estimated number of existing dwellings is 3.9%. These two indicators are considered to illustrate a land supply market that is functioning in terms of short and longer term land requirements.

Graph 4.1: Stock of Vacant Residential Allotments, 2009

250

200

150

No. of Lots of No. 100

0 Argyle Elmore Huntly Marong Epsom Axedale Bendigo Ironbark Flora Hill Flora Woodvale Goornong Heathcote Junortoun Long Gully White Hills White Quarry Hill Eaglehawk Costerfield Kennington Strathdale Spring Gully Sailors Gully Sailors Golden Gully Golden Maiden Gully East Bendigo East West Bendigo West North Bendigo Golden Square Golden Ascot (Bendigo) Ascot Kangaroo Flat Kangaroo Strathfieldsaye California Gully California Big Hill (Bendigo)

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

4.2 Minor Infill Supply

As at July 2009, there was a residential lot capacity within Minor Infill sites of approximately 4,350. The location of these minor infill sites are widely distributed across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo, there are particularly high numbers of minor infill lot stock in: Heathcote (629 lot potential or 14% of total minor infill supply); Maiden Gully (410 lot potential or 9% of total minor infill supply); White Hills (328 lot potential or 8% of total minor infill supply); and Strathfieldsaye (338 lot potential or 8% of total minor infill supply).

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 19 Minor infill lot potential represents 35% of the total existing zoned residential land supply across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo. There are 940 minor infill sites across the municipality.

4.3 Major Infill Supply

As at July 2009, there was a residential lot capacity within major infill sites of approximately 1,472. There are particularly high numbers of major infill lot stock in: Heathcote (305 lot potential or 21% of total major infill supply); Golden Square (273 lot potential or 19% of total major infill supply); Kangaroo Flat (185 lot potential or 13% of total major infill supply); and Strathfieldsaye (146 lot potential or 10% of total major infill supply). Major infill lot potential represents 12% of the total existing zoned residential land supply across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo. There are 50 major infill sites across the municipality.

Table 4.2: Anticipated Lot Construction Activity – Major Infill, 2009

DEVELOPMENT TIMING SUBURB TOTAL 1-2 years 3-5 years 6-10 years 11+ years ARGYLE 8 8 ASCOT (BENDIGO) 24 24 CALIFORNIA GULLY 34 34 EAGLEHAWK 65 65 EPSOM 77 77 FLORA HILL 43 43 GOLDEN SQUARE 149 55 83 0 287 HEATHCOTE 60 245 305 KANGAROO FLAT 123 20 42 185 NORTH BENDIGO 16 16 QUARRY HILL 26 65 91 SAILORS GULLY 5 5 SPRING GULLY 28 0 26 0 54 STRATHDALE 11 11 STRATHFIELDSAYE 53 93 146 WHITE HILLS 67 54 121 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 491 208 407 366 1,472

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Based on existing planning permits, recent construction activity and Council feedback it is anticipated that over the next five years, on average 140 lots per annum will be constructed within major infill sites.

4.4 Broadhectare Supply

As at July 2009, there was a residential lot capacity within broadhectare areas of approximately 4,830. There are particularly high numbers of zoned broadhectare lot stock in: Huntly (957 lot potential or 20% of total broadhectare supply); Maiden Gully (650 lot potential or 13% of total broadhectare supply); Strathfieldsaye (619 lot potential or 13% of total broadhectare supply); and Bagshot (605 lot potential or 13% of total broadhectare supply).

20 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Broadhectare lot potential represents 38% of the total existing zoned residential land supply across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo.

Table 4.3: Anticipated Lot Construction Activity – Broadhectare, 2009

DEVELOPMENT TIMING SUBURB TOTAL 1-2 years 3-5 years 6-10 years 11+ years BAGSHOT 90 243 272 605 BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 27 0 27 EAGLEHAWK 67 54 121 GOLDEN SQUARE 42 42 HUNTLY 276 315 366 957 JACKASS FLAT 63 105 180 251 599 JUNORTOUN 28 28 KANGAROO FLAT 130 194 260 584 KENNINGTON 0 0 MAIDEN GULLY 207 183 260 650 MARONG 36 70 227 214 547 RAYWOOD 21 21 SPRING GULLY 28 28 STRATHFIELDSAYE 95 290 234 0 619 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 957 1,247 1,887 737 4,828

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Based on existing planning permits, recent construction activity and Council feedback it is anticipated that over the next five years, on average 440 lots per annum will be constructed within existing zoned broadhectare areas.

4.5 Future Residential Land Supply

Analysis has been undertaken in conjunction with municipal planning officers to identify the location and associated lot yield of future residential land stocks. Future residential land stocks are identified by the Greater Bendigo City Council and contained within various municipal planning policy and strategy planning documents. Future residential land stocks are not zoned to support immediate ‘normal’ residential development, and rezoning and structure planning processes are required before normal residential development proceeds. Within the municipal area of Greater Bendigo, there is an estimated lot potential within Future Residential areas of approximately 5,900. Of this lot potential: 42% or 2,460 lots are located in Maiden Gully; 27% or 1,614 lots located in Strathfieldsaye; 17% or 1,000 lots located in Huntly; 10% or 585 lots located in Jackass Flat; and 4% or 250 lots located in Kangaroo Flat.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 21 4.6 Low Density Supply

The stock of both occupied and vacant low density residential allotments have been determined on a lot by lot basis as at July 2009. A low density residential allotment is defined as all allotments that are zoned Low Density Residential (LDRZ) and Rural Living (RLZ). Occupied is defined as evidence of a ‘habitable’ dwelling and vacant is defined as no evidence of a habitable dwelling via the interpretation of aerial imagery. As at July 2009 across the municipality of Greater Bendigo there was a total lot stock of low density allotments of 6,010. Of this stock, 1,944 lots were vacant, a land vacancy rate of 32%. Graph 4.2 summarises the stock of both occupied and vacant low density residential allotments by suburb.

Graph 4.2: Stock of Vacant and Occupied ‘Low Density’ Allotments, 2009

700

600

500

400

No. of Lots of No. 300

200

100

0 Argyle Huntly Marong Bagshot Axedale Longlea Wellsford Goornong Lockwood Axe Creek Axe Eppalock Strathdale Long Gully Sedgwick White Hills White Costerfield Emu Creek Ladys Pass Ladys Heathcote Junortoun Jackass Flat Jackass Golden Gully Golden Mandurang Maiden Gully East Bendigo East Mount Camel West Bendigo West Kangaroo Flat Kangaroo North Bendigo Golden Square Golden Strathfieldsaye California Gully California Ascot (Bendigo) Ascot Big Hill (Bendigo) Mandurang South Mandurang Lockwood South Lockwood Total Vacant Lots Total Occupied Lots

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Relatively high numbers of vacant low density lot stock was located in the suburbs of Heathcote (250 lots), Huntly (234 lots) and Sedgewick (156 lots). Section 4.7 of this report provides a series of overview map on the current status of low density zoned land within the City of Greater Bendigo.

Summary & Conclusions

22 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 4.7 Low Density Overview Maps

Overview Map 1: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Inner East SLA, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 23 Overview Map 2: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Inner North SLA, 2009

24 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Overview Map 3: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Inner West SLA, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 25 Overview Map 4: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Part B (North East) SLA, 2009

26 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Overview Map 5: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Part B (South West) SLA, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 27 Overview Map 6: Vacant and Occupied Low Density Residential Allotments – Strathfieldsaye SLA, 2009

28 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 5.0 Projected Demand

This report incorporates the most recently available demand figures to project dwelling requirements and future adequacy of residential land. These figures currently use the Victoria in Future 2008 projections as the basis for demand, which are updated in line with state population and household projections. Victoria in Future 2008 is the Victorian Government’s official population and household projections. Information is provided for state-wide, regional and metropolitan areas as well as local government areas. Victoria in Future 2008 reflects the latest available trends such as changes to levels of immigration or economic conditions, or changes to policy affecting population growth locations and levels, and subsequent demand for housing. Victoria in Future 2008 projections cover the period 2006 to 2056 for the state, regional Victoria and Melbourne; for 2006 to 2036 for the Statistical Divisions in regional Victoria; and for 2006 to 2026 for local government areas and statistical local areas. Overall, regional Victoria is projected to grow by 477,000 people in the next 30 years, compared with 320,000 in the previous 30 years. Most of this growth is projected to come from net migration from Melbourne. Strong population growth can be expected in: regional centres, which have diverse employment opportunities and services; coastal areas, which are popular locations for sea-changers such as young families and retirees; and tree change and other ‘lifestyle’ locations such as rural areas around Melbourne and the regional centres as well as the Alpine areas and the Murray River. Graph 5.1 summarises the projected demand for residential dwellings for the municipal area of Greater Bendigo. From 2006 to 2009, it was estimated that there was an average annual demand for residential dwellings of 934. Over the same period, residential lot construction averaged 518 per annum and residential building approvals 775. From 2011 to 2016 it is projected that the average annual demand across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo to increase to 999, from 2016 to 2021 – 1,009 per annum, declining to 960 per annum from 2021 to 2026.

Graph 5.1: Projected Demand for Residential Dwellings, 2006 - 2026

1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300

No. of Dwellings/Lots/Households of No. 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Victoria in Future 2008 Lot Construction Building Approvals

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue No. 8731.0; Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 29 As measured from 2011 to 2026, the average annual projected demand by SLA within the municipality of Greater Bendigo is: Central -100 dwellings per annum; Eaglehawk - 54 dwellings per annum; Inner East – 114 dwellings per annum; Inner North – 172 dwellings per annum; Inner West – 253 dwellings per annum; Strathfieldsaye – 157 dwellings per annum; and Greater Bendigo Pt B – 139 dwellings per annum.

Summary & Conclusions

From 2006 to 2009, it was estimated that there was an average annual demand for residential dwellings of 934. Over the same period, residential lot construction averaged 518 per annum and residential building approvals 775. From 2011 to 2016 it is projected that the average annual demand across the municipal area of Greater Bendigo to increase to 999, from 2016 to 2021 – 1,009 per annum, declining to 960 per annum from 2021 to 2026. Demand projections over next five years are 90% greater than recent residential lot construction and 27% greater than recent building approval activity. If these building trends continue, the years of supply as expressed in this analysis will be under estimated.

30 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 6.0 Adequacy of Land Stocks

Analysis has been undertaken to estimate the years of residential land supply by Statistical Local Area. In estimating the years of residential land supply only Minor Infill, Major Infill, zoned broadhectare and future residential land supply types are considered. Demand for residential lots/dwellings is sourced from the Victorian Governments population and household projections Victoria in Future 2008. This is a conservative approach as it does not consider the supply of existing vacant lots and demand for low density lots. Table 6.1 summarises the estimated years of residential land supply by SLA for both zoned and future residential land stocks.

Table 6.1: Estimated Years of Residential Land Supply

LOTS YEARS OF SUPPLY

Minor Major Zoned Total Future Total Total Total Infill Infill BH Zoned Res Zoned Future Central 359 14 373 373 2 0

Eaglehawk 541 50 591 591 8 0

Inner East 546 173 56 775 775 6 0

Inner North 824 287 2,282 3,393 1,585 4,978 15+ 8

Inner West 891 463 1,460 2,814 2,710 5,524 10 10

Strathfieldsaye 451 172 619 1,242 1,242 8 0

Greater Bendigo Pt B 739 313 411 1,463 1,614 3,077 9 10

GREATER BENDIGO LGA 4,351 1,472 4,828 10,651 5,909 16,560 10 5

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

In terms of zoned residential land stocks it is estimated based on the identified supply and projected demand, there are sufficient land stocks to satisfy 10 years of future demand. This is based on a zoned lot potential of 10,651 lots, of which: 4,828 lots are broadhectare; 4,351 are minor infill; and 1,472 are major infill. In the assessment of adequacy only ‘un-subdivided’ land stocks are considered, vacant residential allotments do not form a component to adequacy. This is a deliberate and conservative approach. Zoned supply by SLA is sufficient to satisfy: Central – 2 years projected demand; Eaglehawk – 8 years projected demand; Inner East – 6 years projected demand; Inner North – over 15 years of projected demand; Inner West – 10 years projected demand; Strathfieldsaye – 8 years projected demand; and Greater Bendigo Pt B - 9 years projected demand. In terms of future residential land supply stocks, there is sufficient land to satisfy 5 years of projected demand. Expressed by SLA, there are sufficient future residential land stocks to satisfy: Inner North – 8 years of projected demand; Inner West – 10 years projected demand; and Greater Bendigo Pt B - 10 years projected demand.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 31 There is no identified future residential land supply stock within the SLAs of Central, Eaglehawk, Inner East and Strathfieldsaye. It is expected that projected demand will transfer to the locations of existing zoned stocks and future residential areas as the existing land supply within these SLAs are depleted. The Urban Development Program will continue to monitor and report on residential land activity within Greater Bendigo, and report on ‘years of supply’ based on residential land supply levels, and potential shifts in demand for housing within this area.

Summary & Conclusions

For zoned residential land stocks, it is estimated based on the identified supply and projected demand, there are sufficient land stocks to satisfy 10 years of future demand. This is based on a zoned lot potential of 10,651 lots, of which: 4,828 lots are broadhectare; 4,351 are minor infill; and 1,472 are major infill. For future residential land supply stocks, there is sufficient land to satisfy 5 years of projected demand. In total there is a 15 year supply of residential land stocks across the municipality. The existing stock of vacant residential allotments is sufficient to satisfy 1.7 years of demand. It is important that a suitable stock of vacant residential allotments is maintained to satisfy immediate demand for allotment.

32 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 7.0 Residential Maps

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 33 MYERS FLAT

MAP 7.1

GREATER BENDIGO Greater Bendigo

WILSONS HILL

Marong

MARONG

Bullock Creek Spring Creek SCALE 1:50,000

Greater Bendigo Greater Bendigo index map Broadhectare Major Inll Minor Inll Other Features Minor Inll Supply Constructed (2006, 07, 08, 09) Constructed (2006, 07, 08, 09) Cadastral boundary 6 Take up 1-2 yrs Supply 1-2 yrs Municipality boundary 2 3 Take up 3-5 yrs PSP/rezoning required Supply 3-5 yrs Major road 14 5 Take up 6-10 yrs Supply 6-10 yrs Railway 7

Future residential er Take up 11+ yrs Riv Supply 11+ yrs ny River, creek Sto UDP MapsOnline available at: N www.land.vic.gov.au/udp

Regional Urban Development Program 2009 34 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo WHIPSTICK

MAP WOODVALE 7.2 GREATER BENDIGO GREATER

Myers Creek

EAGLEHAWK NORTH Greater Bendigo

MYERS FLAT

SAILORS GULLY EAGLEHAWK

Eaglehawk

CALIFORNIA GULLY

LONG GULLY

Future residential er Take up 11+ yrs Riv Supply 11+ yrs ny River, creek Sto UDP MapsOnline available at: N www.land.vic.gov.au/udp

Regional Urban Development Program 2009 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 35 Bendigo Creek

HUNTLY MAP 7.3 GREATER BENDIGO

Huntly

Greater Bendigo

EPSOM

ASCOT

JACKASS FLAT

Epsom

WHITE HILLS

NORTH BENDIGO SCALE 1:50,000

Future residential er Take up 11+ yrs Riv Supply 11+ yrs ny River, creek Sto UDP MapsOnline available at: N www.land.vic.gov.au/udp

Regional Urban Development Program 2009 36 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo California Gully

CALIFORNIA GULLY

LONG GULLY

IRONBARK MAP MAIDEN GULLY 7.4

Myers Creek

Golden Square GOLDEN SQUARE BENDIGO GREATER

Greater Bendigo

Bendigo Creek

GOLDEN GULLY

Kangaroo Flat

l Spring Gully KANGAROO FLAT Reservoir

LOCKWOOD

Crusoe Reservoir

BIG HILL

Future residential er Take up 11+ yrs Riv Supply 11+ yrs ny River, creek Sto UDP MapsOnline available at: N www.land.vic.gov.au/udp

Regional Urban Development Program 2009 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 37 NORTH BENDIGO

Bendigo Creek Bendigo North

MAP 7.5 STRATHDALE GREATER BENDIGO

Bendigo

Back Creek

KENNINGTON

QUARRY HILL

JUNORTOUN FLORA HILL

Greater Bendigo

Spring Creek

SPRING GULLY STRATHFIELDSAYE Spring Gully Reservoir

MANDURANG Axe Creek Axe SCALE 1:50,000

Future residential er Take up 11+ yrs Riv Supply 11+ yrs ny River, creek Sto UDP MapsOnline available at: N www.land.vic.gov.au/udp

Regional Urban Development Program 2009 38 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo MAP 7.6 Greater Bendigo

ELMORE GREATER BENDIGO GREATER

Elmore BURNEWANG

Campaspe

Mount Pleasant Creek

Future residential er Take up 11+ yrs Riv Supply 11+ yrs ny River, creek Sto UDP MapsOnline available at: N www.land.vic.gov.au/udp

Regional Urban Development Program 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 39 NORTHERN HIGHWAY

Mount Ida Creek MAP 7.7 GREATER BENDIGO

HEATHCOTE

RD Greater Bendigo

HEATHCOTE-REDESDALE

Mcivor Creek

Wild Duck Creek

Spring Flat Gully

ARGYLE

Mitchell SCALE 1:50,000

Future residential er Take up 11+ yrs Riv Supply 11+ yrs ny River, creek Sto UDP MapsOnline available at: N www.land.vic.gov.au/udp

Regional Urban Development Program 2009 40 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 8.0 Residential Tables

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 41 Table 8.1: Minor Infill Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09

TABLE Year of Construction

8.1 SLA SUBURB 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 TOTAL

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Central BENDIGO 9 10 15 5 39 GOLDEN SQUARE 23 49 16 88 IRONBARK 4 1 5 LONG GULLY 3 3 4 5 15 NORTH BENDIGO 50 5 6 4 65 TOTAL 89 18 74 31 212 Gr. Bendigo (C) - CALIFORNIA GULLY 21 2 11 18 52 Eaglehawk EAGLEHAWK 14 1 6 17 38 LONG GULLY 4 2 3 9 SAILORS GULLY 2 1 5 8 TOTAL 41 5 21 40 107 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner BENDIGO 1 1 East EAST BENDIGO 23 2 13 10 48 FLORA HILL 18 4 13 8 43 GOLDEN GULLY 1 1 GOLDEN SQUARE 1 1 2 4 8 KANGAROO FLAT 3 3 KENNINGTON 27 3 13 21 64 QUARRY HILL 5 2 7 5 19 SPRING GULLY 8 5 23 36 STRATHDALE 5 4 2 8 19 TOTAL 91 16 55 80 242 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner ASCOT (BENDIGO) 19 1 3 2 25 North BENDIGO 1 1 EAGLEHAWK 6 1 7 EAST BENDIGO 10 10 EPSOM 33 5 4 42 HUNTLY 2 2 WHITE HILLS 8 2 12 3 25 TOTAL 67 3 21 21 112 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner CALIFORNIA GULLY 1 1 West GOLDEN SQUARE 3 15 12 30 KANGAROO FLAT 42 6 61 23 132 MAIDEN GULLY 3 1 7 4 15 WEST BENDIGO 3 3 TOTAL 45 10 84 42 181 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Pt B ELMORE 3 3 1 7 HEATHCOTE 28 7 5 40 MARONG 1 1 2 RAYWOOD 2 2 4 TOTAL 33 13 7 53 Gr. Bendigo (C) - S’saye STRATHFIELDSAYE 6 13 7 26 TOTAL 6 13 7 26 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 372 65 275 221 933

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

42 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Table 8.2: Major Infill Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09

Year of Construction TABLE 8.2 SLA SUBURB 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 TOTAL Gr. Bendigo (C) - NORTH BENDIGO 22 46 68 Central TOTAL 22 46 68 Gr. Bendigo (C) - CALIFORNIA GULLY 23 18 41 Eaglehawk TOTAL 23 18 41 Gr. Bendigo (C) - FLORA HILL 40 40 Inner East TOTAL 40 40 Gr. Bendigo (C) - ASCOT (BENDIGO) 17 17 Inner North EPSOM 66 15 36 117 WHITE HILLS 30 30 TOTAL 66 15 17 66 164 Gr. Bendigo (C) - GOLDEN SQUARE 17 17 Inner West KANGAROO FLAT 40 40 TOTAL 57 57 Gr. Bendigo (C) - ELMORE 46 46 Pt B TOTAL 46 46 Gr. Bendigo (C) - STRATHFIELDSAYE 35 43 78 S'saye TOTAL 35 43 78 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 134 38 52 270 494

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 43 Table 8.3: Broadhectare Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09

TABLE Year of Construction

8.3 SLA SUBURB 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 TOTAL

Gr. Bendigo (C) - JUNORTOUN 19 19 Inner East TOTAL 19 19 Gr. Bendigo (C) - ASCOT (BENDIGO) 76 76 Inner North EAGLEHAWK 26 18 4 48 HUNTLY 25 39 64 TOTAL 51 18 119 188 Gr. Bendigo (C) - GOLDEN SQUARE 13 13 Inner West KANGAROO FLAT 8 34 23 65 MAIDEN GULLY 65 16 45 126 TOTAL 73 63 68 204 Gr. Bendigo (C) - MARONG 24 24 Pt B TOTAL 24 24 Gr. Bendigo (C) - JUNORTOUN 25 15 14 54 S'saye TOTAL 25 15 14 54 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 149 15 105 220 489

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

44 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Table 8.4: Low Density Lot Construction, 2005/06 to 2008/09

Year of Construction TABLE

SLA SUBURB 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 TOTAL 8.4

Gr. Bendigo (C) - BAGSHOT 3 3 Inner North HUNTLY 2 2 TOTAL 2 3 5 Gr. Bendigo (C) - AXE CREEK 2 2 Pt B AXEDALE 2 2 EMU CREEK 6 6 EPPALOCK 2 2 4 GOORNONG 6 6 HEATHCOTE 21 2 4 9 36 HUNTLY 6 6 LADYS PASS 2 2 LOCKWOOD SOUTH 19 19 LONGLEA 2 4 4 3 13

MANDURANG SOUTH 4 4

SEDGWICK 4 20 5 29

STRATHFIELDSAYE 4 6 5 15

TOTAL 60 16 36 32 144 Gr. Bendigo (C) - EMU CREEK 4 4 8 S'saye TOTAL 4 4 8 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 66 16 36 39 157

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 45 Table 8.5: Minor Infill Lot Potential, 2009

TABLE SLA SUBURB NO. OF LOTS SLA SUBURB NO. OF LOTS

8.5 Gr. Bendigo (C) BENDIGO 15 Gr. Bendigo (C) CALIFORNIA GULLY 37 - Central GOLDEN SQUARE 158 - Inner West EAGLEHAWK 13 IRONBARK 15 GOLDEN SQUARE 28 LONG GULLY 75 KANGAROO FLAT 230 NORTH BENDIGO 83 LONG GULLY 3 WEST BENDIGO 13 MAIDEN GULLY 410 TOTAL 359 MYERS FLAT 16 Gr. Bendigo (C) CALIFORNIA GULLY 138 SAILORS GULLY 129 - Eaglehawk EAGLEHAWK 267 WEST BENDIGO 25 EAGLEHAWK NORTH 2 TOTAL 891 JACKASS FLAT 14 Gr. Bendigo (C) ARGYLE 110 LONG GULLY 68 - Pt B HEATHCOTE 629 SAILORS GULLY 52 TOTAL 739 TOTAL 541 Gr. Bendigo (C) JUNORTOUN 60 Gr. Bendigo (C) BENDIGO 2 - S'saye KANGAROO FLAT 20 - Inner East EAST BENDIGO 63 SPRING GULLY 33 FLORA HILL 27 STRATHFIELDSAYE 338 GOLDEN GULLY 2 TOTAL 451 GOLDEN SQUARE 49 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 4,351 KANGAROO FLAT 18 KENNINGTON 106 QUARRY HILL 27 SPRING GULLY 158 STRATHDALE 94 TOTAL 546 Gr. Bendigo (C) ASCOT (BENDIGO) 175 - Inner North BENDIGO 2 EAGLEHAWK 60 EAST BENDIGO 18 EPSOM 75 HUNTLY 105 NORTH BENDIGO 61 WHITE HILLS 328 TOTAL 824

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

46 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Table 8.6: Major Infill Lot Potential and Anticipated Development Timing, 2009

Development Timing TABLE 8.6 SLA SUBURB 1-2 years 3-5 years 6-10 years 11+ years TOTAL Gr. Bendigo (C) - GOLDEN SQUARE 14 14 Central TOTAL 14 14 Gr. Bendigo (C) - CALIFORNIA GULLY 34 34 Eaglehawk NORTH BENDIGO 16 16 TOTAL 34 16 50 Gr. Bendigo (C) - FLORA HILL 43 43 Inner East QUARRY HILL 26 65 91 SPRING GULLY 28 28 STRATHDALE 11 11 TOTAL 65 65 43 173 Gr. Bendigo (C) - ASCOT (BENDIGO) 24 24 Inner North EAGLEHAWK 65 65 EPSOM 77 77 WHITE HILLS 67 54 121 TOTAL 67 24 131 65 287 Gr. Bendigo (C) - GOLDEN SQUARE 149 55 69 273 Inner West KANGAROO FLAT 123 20 42 185 SAILORS GULLY 5 5 TOTAL 272 75 111 5 463 Gr. Bendigo (C) - ARGYLE 8 8 Pt B HEATHCOTE 60 245 305 TOTAL 60 253 313 Gr. Bendigo (C) - SPRING GULLY 26 26 S'saye STRATHFIELDSAYE 53 93 146 TOTAL 53 93 26 172 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 491 208 407 366 1,472

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 47 Table 8.7: Broadhectare Lot Potential and Anticipated Development Timing, 2009

TABLE Development Timing 8.7 SLA SUBURB 1-2 years 3-5 years 6-10 years 11+ years TOTAL Gr. Bendigo (C) - JUNORTOUN 28 28 Inner East KENNINGTON 0 0 SPRING GULLY 28 28 TOTAL 56 0 56 Gr. Bendigo (C) - BAGSHOT 90 243 272 605 Inner North EAGLEHAWK 67 54 121 HUNTLY 276 315 366 957 JACKASS FLAT 63 105 180 251 599 TOTAL 406 510 843 523 2,282 Gr. Bendigo (C) - BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 27 0 27 Inner West GOLDEN SQUARE 42 42 KANGAROO FLAT 130 194 260 584 MAIDEN GULLY 207 183 260 650 MARONG 157 157 TOTAL 364 377 719 0 1,460 Gr. Bendigo (C) - MARONG 36 70 70 214 390 Pt B RAYWOOD 21 21 TOTAL 36 70 91 214 411 Gr. Bendigo (C) - STRATHFIELDSAYE 95 290 234 0 619 S'saye TOTAL 95 290 234 0 619 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 957 1,247 1,887 737 4,828

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

48 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Table 8.8: Residential Vacant Lot Stock by Zone Type, 2009

SLA SUBURB TOTAL TABLE Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner North HUNTLY 1,000 8.8 JACKASS FLAT 585 TOTAL 1,585 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner West KANGAROO FLAT 250 MAIDEN GULLY 2,460 TOTAL 2,710 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Pt B STRATHFIELDSAYE 1,614 TOTAL 1,614 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 5,909

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 49 Table 8.9: Residential Vacant Lot Stock by Zone Type, 2009

TABLE Zone Type 8.9 SLA SUBURB R1Z MUZ TZ TOTAL Gr. Bendigo (C) BENDIGO 3 54 57 - Central GOLDEN SQUARE 39 39 IRONBARK 18 18

LONG GULLY 19 19 NORTH BENDIGO 31 31 WEST BENDIGO 3 3 TOTAL 3 164 167 Gr. Bendigo (C) CALIFORNIA GULLY 102 102 - Eaglehawk EAGLEHAWK 37 37 LONG GULLY 10 10

SAILORS GULLY 8 8 TOTAL 157 157 Gr. Bendigo (C) BENDIGO 3 3 - Inner East EAST BENDIGO 28 28 FLORA HILL 40 40

GOLDEN GULLY 1 1 GOLDEN SQUARE 1 1 KENNINGTON 71 71 QUARRY HILL 11 11

SPRING GULLY 33 33 STRATHDALE 103 103 TOTAL 291 291 Gr. Bendigo (C) ASCOT (BENDIGO) 58 58 - Inner North BENDIGO 4 4 EAGLEHAWK 23 23

EAST BENDIGO 5 5 EPSOM 22 94 116 HUNTLY 21 76 97 NORTH BENDIGO 1 1

WHITE HILLS 71 71 TOTAL 22 277 76 375 Gr. Bendigo (C) BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 1 1 - Inner West CALIFORNIA GULLY 3 3 GOLDEN SQUARE 39 39

KANGAROO FLAT 228 228 MAIDEN GULLY 26 26 MARONG 16 16 SAILORS GULLY 5 5

WEST BENDIGO 2 2 WOODVALE 1 1 TOTAL 305 16 321 Gr. Bendigo (C) ARGYLE 11 11 - Pt B AXEDALE 18 18 COSTERFIELD 7 7

ELMORE 97 97 GOORNONG 35 35 HEATHCOTE 62 62 MARONG 26 26

TOTAL 73 183 256 Strathfieldsaye JUNORTOUN 30 30 KANGAROO FLAT 1 1

SPRING GULLY 3 3 STRATHFIELDSAYE 107 107 TOTAL 141 141 GREATER BENDIGO LGA 25 1,408 275 1,708

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

50 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Table 8.10: Occupied and Vacant ‘Low Density’ Lot Stock, 2009

LDRZ RLZ TOTAL TABLE 8.10

SLA SUBURB VACANT OCCUPIED (%) RATE VACANCY VACANT OCCUPIED (%) RATE VACANCY VACANT TOTAL LOTS VACANCY TOTAL (%) RATE Central NORTH BENDIGO 1 7 13% 1 13% TOTAL 1 7 13% 1 13% Eaglehawk LONG GULLY 2 5 29% 2 29% MAIDEN GULLY 4 9 31% 4 31% TOTAL 6 14 30% 6 30% Inner East GOLDEN GULLY 10 25 29% 10 29% KANGAROO FLAT 6 12 33% 6 33% STRATHDALE 2 3 40% 2 40% TOTAL 18 40 31% 18 31% Inner North ASCOT (BENDIGO) 11 34 24% 1 2 33% 12 25% BAGSHOT 15 80 16% 15 16% EAST BENDIGO 37 105 26% 37 26% HUNTLY 188 434 30% 33 18 65% 221 33% JACKASS FLAT 2 4 33% 2 33% NORTH BENDIGO 3 8 27% 3 27% WELLSFORD 3 8 27% 3 27% WHITE HILLS 28 56 33% 28 33% TOTAL 269 641 30% 52 108 33% 321 30% Inner West BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 8 0% 0 0% CALIFORNIA GULLY 1 100% 1 100% GOLDEN SQUARE 1 2 33% 1 33% KANGAROO FLAT 14 40 26% 14 26% LOCKWOOD 39 144 21% 39 21% LOCKWOOD SOUTH 18 13 58% 9 22 29% 27 44% MAIDEN GULLY 35 105 25% 35 25% MARONG 5 6 45% 5 45% WEST BENDIGO 2 8 20% 2 20% TOTAL 71 176 29% 53 172 24% 124 26%

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 51 Table 8.10: Occupied and Vacant ‘Low Density’ Lot Stock, 2009

TABLE LDRZ RLZ TOTAL 8.10

SLA SUBURB VACANT OCCUPIED (%) RATE VACANCY VACANT OCCUPIED (%) RATE VACANCY VACANT TOTAL LOTS VACANCY TOTAL (%) RATE Gr. Bendigo ARGYLE 36 36 50% 36 50% (C) - Pt B AXE CREEK 106 121 47% 106 47% AXEDALE 38 38 50% 110 110 50% 148 50% BAGSHOT 1 1 50% 1 50% COSTERFIELD 2 0% 0 0% EMU CREEK 39 57 41% 39 41% EPPALOCK 73 203 26% 73 26% GOORNONG 16 17 48% 45 56 45% 61 46% HEATHCOTE 31 157 16% 219 474 32% 250 28% HUNTLY 13 5 72% 13 72%

LADYS PASS 7 22 24% 7 24%

LOCKWOOD 26 38 41% 26 41%

LOCKWOOD SOUTH 8 37 18% 52 121 30% 60 28%

LONGLEA 105 149 41% 105 41%

MANDURANG 4 27 13% 4 13%

MANDURANG STH 20 50 29% 32 45 42% 52 35%

MOUNT CAMEL 9 77 10% 9 10%

SEDGWICK 155 174 47% 155 47%

STRATHFIELDSAYE 49 81 38% 49 38%

WELLSFORD 10 5 67% 10 67%

TOTAL 126 304 29% 1,078 1,799 37% 1,204 36% Strathfield ASCOT (BENDIGO) 4 0% 5 6 45% 5 33% saye EMU CREEK 42 59 42% 42 42% JUNORTOUN 82 357 19% 82 19% KANGAROO FLAT 28 47 37% 28 37% LONGLEA 4 27 13% 4 13% MANDURANG 1 21 5% 51 181 22% 52 20% MANDURANG 19 14 58% 5 2 71% 24 60% SOUTH SEDGWICK 1 100% 1 100% STRATHFIELDSAYE 18 42 30% 4 35 10% 22 22% WELLSFORD 10 10 50% 10 50% TOTAL 148 485 23% 122 320 28% 270 25% GREATER BENDIGO LGA 639 1,667 28% 1,305 2,399 35% 1,944 32%

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd and Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009

52 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Table 8.11(a): Estimated and Projected Number of Households, 2006 to 2026 TABLE 8.11 SLA Name 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Central 8,374 8,968 9,461 9,973 10,474

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Eaglehawk 3,905 4,253 4,567 4,852 5,061

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner East 10,360 10,788 11,381 11,944 12,491

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner North 3,755 4,515 5,346 6,223 7,098

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner West 6,469 7,640 8,940 10,277 11,434

Gr. Bendigo (C) - S'saye 2,296 2,915 3,605 4,402 5,272

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Pt B 5,341 6,090 6,864 7,539 8,180

GREATER BENDIGO LGA 40,500 45,168 50,164 55,211 60,010

Source: Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009; Victoria in Future 2008

Table 8.11(b): Estimated and Projected Average Annual Change in the Number of Households, 2006 to 2026

SLA Name 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 2016 to 2021 2021 to 2026

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Central 119 99 102 100

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Eaglehawk 70 63 57 42

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner East 86 118 113 109

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner North 152 166 175 175

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner West 234 260 268 231

Gr. Bendigo (C) - S'saye 124 138 159 174

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Pt B 150 155 135 128

GREATER BENDIGO LGA 934 999 1,009 960

Source: Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009; Victoria in Future 2008

Table 8.11(c): Estimated and Projected Average Annual Percentage Change in the Number of Households, 2006 to 2026

SLA Name 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 2016 to 2021 2021 to 2026 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Central 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Eaglehawk 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8%

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner East 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9%

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner North 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7%

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner West 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.2%

Gr. Bendigo (C) - S'saye 4.9% 4.3% 4.1% 3.7%

Gr. Bendigo (C) - Pt B 2.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1.6%

GREATER BENDIGO LGA 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7%

Source: Department of Planning and Community Development, 2009; Victoria in Future 2008

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 53 Locations of Suburbs and Statistical Local Areas – Greater Bendigo

54 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Table 8.12: List of Suburbs by SLA

SLA SUBURB REF # SLA SUBURB REF # TABLE Gr. Bendigo BENDIGO 1329 Gr. Bendigo ARGYLE 1440 8.12 (C) - Central CALIFORNIA GULLY 1337 (C) - Pt B AVONMORE 1341 GOLDEN SQUARE 1177 AXE CREEK 1316 IRONBARK 1343 AXEDALE 1308

JACKASS FLAT 1321 BAGSHOT 1324

KANGAROO FLAT 1162 BAGSHOT NORTH 1320 LONG GULLY 1335 BARNADOWN 1441 NORTH BENDIGO 1332 BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 1164 QUARRY HILL 1344 BONN 1448 WEST BENDIGO 1179 BRADFORD 1161 Gr. Bendigo CALIFORNIA GULLY 1337 BURNEWANG 1450

(C) - EAGLEHAWK 1176 CAMPBELLS FOREST 1181 Eaglehawk EAGLEHAWK NORTH 1330 COSTERFIELD 1605 JACKASS FLAT 1321 DERRINAL 1439 DIGGORA 1345 LONG GULLY 1335 MAIDEN GULLY 1182 DRUMMARTIN 1350

NORTH BENDIGO 1332 ELMORE 1347

SAILORS GULLY 1178 EMU CREEK 1312

WEST BENDIGO 1179 EPPALOCK 1307

Gr. Bendigo BENDIGO 1329 FOSTERVILLE 1322 (C) - Inner EAST BENDIGO 1328 GLENHOPE 1429 East FLORA HILL 1334 GOORNONG 1342 GOLDEN GULLY 1309 HARCOURT NORTH 1167 GOLDEN SQUARE 1177 HEATHCOTE 1438

JUNORTOUN 1325 HEATHCOTE SOUTH 1425

KANGAROO FLAT 1162 HUNTER 1346 KENNINGTON 1339 HUNTLY 1338 QUARRY HILL 1344 HUNTLY NORTH 1323 SPRING GULLY 1310 JUNORTOUN 1325 STRATHDALE 1336 KAMAROOKA 1349 STRATHFIELDSAYE 1314 KIMBOLTON 1318

WELLSFORD 1340 KNOWSLEY 1435 LADYS PASS 1434 LAKE EPPALOCK 1437 LEICHARDT 1024 LOCKWOOD 1169 LOCKWOOD SOUTH 1168

LONGLEA 1315

LYAL 1311 MANDURANG 1313 MANDURANG SOUTH 1165

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 55 Table 8.12: List of Suburbs by SLA

TABLE SLA SUBURB REF # SLA SUBURB REF # 8.12 Gr. Bendigo MARONG 1173 Gr. Bendigo ASCOT (BENDIGO) 1327 (C) - Pt B MIA MIA 1428 (C) - S'saye BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 1164 MILLOO 1351 EAST BENDIGO 1328 MOORMBOOL WEST 2940 EMU CREEK 1312

MOUNT CAMEL 1436 FLORA HILL 1334

MUSKERRY 1445 GOLDEN GULLY 1309 MYERS FLAT 1185 JUNORTOUN 1325 MYOLA 1447 KANGAROO FLAT 1162 MYRTLE CREEK 1317 KENNINGTON 1339 NEILBOROUGH 1174 LONGLEA 1315 PUCKAPUNYAL 2941 MANDURANG 1313

RAVENSWOOD 1166 MANDURANG SOUTH 1165

RAVENSWOOD SOUTH 1171 SEDGWICK 1319 RAYWOOD 1172 SPRING GULLY 1310 REDCASTLE 1609 STRATHDALE 1336 REDESDALE 1301 STRATHFIELDSAYE 1314 RUNNYMEDE 1446 WELLSFORD 1340

SEBASTIAN 1184 Gr. Bendigo BIG HILL (BENDIGO) 1164

SEDGWICK 1319 (C) - Inner CALIFORNIA GULLY 1337 SHELBOURNE 1013 West EAGLEHAWK 1176 STRATHFIELDSAYE 1314 GOLDEN SQUARE 1177 SUTTON GRANGE 1306 KANGAROO FLAT 1162 TOOBORAC 1426 LEICHARDT 1024

TOOLLEEN 1443 LOCKWOOD 1169

WELLSFORD 1340 LOCKWOOD SOUTH 1168

WHIPSTICK 1326 LONG GULLY 1335 WILSONS HILL 1175 MAIDEN GULLY 1182 WOODSTOCK ON LODDON 1030 MANDURANG SOUTH 1165 WOODVALE 1180 MARONG 1173

ASCOT (BENDIGO) 1327 MYERS FLAT 1185 Gr. Bendigo (C) - Inner BAGSHOT 1324 RAVENSWOOD 1166

North BENDIGO 1329 SAILORS GULLY 1178 WEST BENDIGO 1179 EAGLEHAWK 1176 WOODVALE 1180 EAGLEHAWK NORTH 1330 EAST BENDIGO 1328

EPSOM 1331 HUNTLY 1338 HUNTLY NORTH 1323 JACKASS FLAT 1321 NEILBOROUGH 1174 NORTH BENDIGO 1332

SAILORS GULLY 1178

STRATHDALE 1336 WELLSFORD 1340 WHIPSTICK 1326 WHITE HILLS 1333 WOODVALE 1180

56 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Glossary of terms

Broadhectare land Major infill Undeveloped land generally located on the urban Undeveloped land within the existing urban area, fringe, zoned for residential development (no zoned for residential development, and parent lot or previous urban development activity), and the parent existing lot greater than 1ha. lot greater than 1ha. Major redevelopment sites Constructed lot Sites predominantly in existing urban areas that For the purposes of the UDP, a lot is created when are proposed to be converted or redeveloped for land has been subdivided (’constructed’) whether or residential purposes and that will yield 10 or more not a separate title has been issued. dwellings.

Dwelling MapsOnline A building used as a self-contained residence, may An interactive online program that gives users the include house, apartment, student accommodation, ability to search for specific projects, generate retirement or aged care facilities or a mobile reports, and print or download maps and statistical dwelling such as a caravan. reports. It also allows the user to search for specific land supply areas by region or LGA, estate name, Future residential land Melway reference, street address or lot number, Land identified by the relevant municipal authority and contains mapping and statistical information for future residential development and current sourced through the UDP. Registered users can also zoning not supportive of ‘normal’ residential make site-specific feedback on-line. development. Land which is has an ‘Urban Growth Zone’ applied, and a precinct structure plan has not Medium density yet been approved, falls into this category. For the purposes of UDP reporting, redevelopment projects consisting of attached one, two and three- Greenfield sites (see also Broadhectare land) storey dwellings are considered medium density. Undeveloped land generally located on the urban fringe, zoned for residential development (no Minor infill previous urban development activity), and the parent Undeveloped land within the existing urban area, lot greater than 1ha. zoned for residential development, and parent lot or existing lot less from 1,000sqm to 1ha. High density For the purposes of UDP reporting, redevelopment Precinct Structure Plans projects that are four storeys or greater are In the Urban Growth Zone (UGZ), the precinct considered high density. structure plan (PSP) is the key document that triggers the conversion of non-urban land into Local Government Area (LGA) urban land. A precinct structure plan is a long-term A geographical area that is administered by a local strategic plan that describes how a precinct or a council. Victoria has 79 LGAs. series of sites will be developed.

Lot (broadhectare) Statistical Local Area (SLA) For the purposes of the UDP, a lot is created when A geographical area created by the Australian land has been subdivided (‘constructed’) whether or Bureau of Statistics for statistical purposes. Victoria not a separate title has been issued. is divided into 200 SLAs. SLAs may be the same as an LGA or in most cases several SLAs aggregate to Lot density (broadhectare land) form LGAs. Number of potential lots associated to land parcels. Net density excludes non-residential land uses Vacant Lots except local roads and local open space, while gross Existing residential vacant lots, sized less than lot density includes other land uses. 1,000sqm. A vacant lot is defined as no existing habitable dwelling or ‘significant’ existing use such Low density land as a playground or park. Land zoned Low Density Residential (LDRZ) or Rural Living (RLZ).

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 57 58 Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo Acknowledgements

This Urban Development Program report would not have been possible with the assistance and contribution of Spatial Economics Pty Ltd, the Greater Bendigo City Council and Regional Development Victoria. The Department of Planning and Community Development would like to thank the representatives from these organisations for their valuable contributions.

Urban Development Program Regional Residential Report 2009 - City of Greater Bendigo 59