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6 Slowing Population Growth

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6 Slowing Population Growth 6Slowing population growth Experience has shown that as development pro- fertility declines of the 1960s, which were largely gresses fertility falls. Yet, because current rates of confined to the industrializing economies of Korea, population growth are so much greater in the Singapore, and Hong Kong. But fertility declines developing world than they were at comparable beginning in other developing countries in the late income levels in today's developed countries, 1960s, and spreading to more in the 1970s, have many developing countries cannot afford to wait been related to a different kind of development: for fertility to decline spontaneously. This message education, health, and the alleviation of poverty. is not without hope, however, because some Birth rate declines have been much more closely developing countries have already shown that fer- associated with adult literacy and life expectancy tility can be brought down significantly. This chap- than with GNP per capita. Despite high average ter examines the forces behind their success and incomes, rapid industrialization, and fast eco- considers. the role of public policy in strengthening nomic growth, birth rates fell less in Brazil and such forces. Venezuela between 1965 and 1975 than in Sri It was once assumed that reducing fertility in Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey, where income gains developing countries would require a typical and social services have been more evenly sequence of economic advance: urbanization, distributed. industrialization, a shift from production in the This association is not surprising. When their household to factory production, and incomes ris- children have a better chance of surviving and of ing to levels enjoyed by today's developed coun- enjoying a wider range of opportunities, parents tries. This view seemed to be confirmed by the are willing to devote more money and time to edu- FIGURE 6.1 How government decisions influence family decisions Family decisions Government decisions Socioeconomic o Timing of marriage environment o Number of children o Children's education Policy and laws Spending Tax programs o Saving and consumption O Marriage age o Education 0 Family allowances O Educational o Work time within o Breastfeeding o Primary health care 0 User fees for opportunities and outside home o Family planning larger families o Availability of o Women's status family planning o Children's o Incentives for and health services Proximate education and work fertility control o Women's status determinants o Old-age security o Financial and of fertility labor markets o Marriage age o Breastfeeding o Abortion 0 Contraception Fertility 106 cating them. The gap between the private and for example, for health and educationhas great social costs of children narrows where income potential for affecting such decisions. Education gains are widely shared, credit and labor markets and primary health care account for between a fifth are working well, and people are receiving a fair (Malawi) and a third (Tunisia) of public budgets in return to effort and skills. Income gains often coin- low-income and middle-income countries. Taxes cide with an increase in opportunities for women similarly affect behavior through, for example, tax- outside the home and for the poor, and associated free allowances for children and fees or subsidies changes substitute for the benefits of having many on services that children use. The effects of taxes children. and subsidies can differ depending on the situa- But such changes come only gradually. Educa- tion. Tuition and book charges might discourage tion, for example, cannot be transformed over- parents from sending children to school and so night. Nationally, literacy rates today are strongly indirectly contribute to higher fertility. But once it influenced by their level in the past; in house- is clear that education is valuable, such charges are holds, children are more likely to attend school if likely to encourage people to have fewer children their mothers did, regardless of family income in order to give them a better education. level. Expanding opportunities for women relies in Some of the ways in which government can part on educating womenbut this occurs more influence family decisions are illustrated in Figure slowly where parents see only limited opportuni- 6.1. The influence can be directgovernment can ties for their daughters. In rural areas, credit and make laws and issue proclamations, for example, labor markets cannot be transformed overnight. that clarify social goals about marriage age and All the more reason, therefore, to act nowespe- children's schooling. But government influence is cially because some of these changes also take time likely to be stronger and more enduring when it is to lower fertility. indirect; for example, through various entitlement Other complementary policies can have more and tax programs, government can affect the social immediate effects. Promotion of later marriage and and economic environment, which in turn affects longer breastfeeding can reduce the birth rate at people's decisions about marriage, children, and the same time it raises welfare. And the experience education. These indirect effects are so powerful of many developing countries shows that public because fertility itself is but one of a set of interre- support for family planning programs, by narrow- lated household decisions: saving, consuming, ing the gap between actual family size and what working, raising children, and sending them to couples would want if they could more easily school. Many of the signals sent out by govern- choose, can lower fertility quickly. Where family ment affect fertility by altering the decisions about planning services are widespread and affordable, children's education, mother's work, and the rela- fertility has declined more rapidly than social and tive attractiveness of spending now or saving for economic progress alone would predict. Some one's old age. Figure 6.1 also shows that all these examples are Colombia, Costa Rica, India, Thai- influences alter fertility through what demogra- land, Tunisia, and, more recently, Indonesia and phers call the proximate determinants of fertility- Mexico. breastfeeding, age at marriage, contraceptive use, and abortion. By taxing and spending in ways that provide The complexity of these relationships is both a couples with specific incentives and disincentives virtue and a drawback. It is a virtue because spe- to limit their fertility, government policy can also cific government programs can have multiple affect fertility in the short run. Government can effects that enhance their overall impact on family offer "rewards" for women who defer pregnancy; behavior. This is clearly true of family planning it can compensate people who undergo steriliza- programs and other development programs. Such tion for loss of work and travel costs; and it can efforts work best in concert; they work only halt- provide insurance and old-age security schemes ingly when they work alone. When various pro- for parents who restrict the size of their families. grams all work together, they make possible the Each of these public policies works through sig- steep declines in fertility achieved by countries nals which influence individual and family deci- that have simultaneously benefited from rapid eco- sionswhen to marry, whether to use contracep- nomic growth, improvements in education, rising tion, how long to send children to school, and life expectancy, and expanding family planning whether and how much family members work. programs. But the complexity is also a disadvan- The level and pattern of government expenditure tage; no one program or policy is enough to reduce 107 fertility; nor is it easy to judge the importance of tality. As shown in Chapter 4, many of the less diffi- one program compared with another. cult ways to reduce mortalitythrough antimalarial campaigns,for examplehave alreadybeen Socioeconomic factors and fertility exploited; further progress against mortality requires changes in people's behavior. Family planning serv- One possible remedy for population growth can be ices are an obvious example. Though primarily seen ruled out at the start: accepting a rise in death as a way to reduce fertility, family planning can be a rates, or even a slower decline than is possible. major contributor to lower mortalityboth of infants High death rates do slow population growth. But and of mothers (see Box 7.1 in the next chapter). The the main reason for wanting slower growth is to same is true for the education of women; women's improve people's well-beingto move quickly education can lower fertility by delaying marriage, by toward a balance of low death and birth rates, thus increasing the effectiveness of contraceptive use, and completing the demographic transition. by giving women ideas and opportunities beyond childbearing alone. Women's education is also a major contributor to lower mortality. Reducing infant and child mortality High infant mortality is part of the setting that pro- Raising income motes high fertility (Chapter 4). Parents who expect some children to die may insure themselves Since children are a source of satisfaction, one by giving birth to more babies than they want or might expect richer parents to have more of them. expect to survive. High infant mortality can cause Within the same socioeconomic group, this is often high fertility for biological reasons as well: breast- so: among small farmers, for example, those with feeding
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