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Impacts of Climate, Land Cover and Hydrologic Changes on Stormwater Runoff in Ec Ntral Florida Mohammad S

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Impacts of Climate, Land Cover and Hydrologic Changes on Stormwater Runoff in Ec Ntral Florida Mohammad S Florida International University FIU Digital Commons FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations University Graduate School 11-12-2015 Impacts of Climate, Land Cover and Hydrologic Changes on Stormwater Runoff in eC ntral Florida Mohammad S. Islam Florida International University, [email protected] DOI: 10.25148/etd.FIDC000189 Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd Part of the Civil Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Islam, Mohammad S., "Impacts of Climate, Land Cover and Hydrologic Changes on Stormwater Runoff in eC ntral Florida" (2015). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 2290. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/2290 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the University Graduate School at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, LAND COVER AND HYDROLOGIC CHANGES ON STORMWATER RUNOFF IN CENTRAL FLORIDA A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in CIVIL ENGINEERING by Mohammad Saiful Islam 2015 To: Interim Dean Ranu Jung College of Engineering and Computing This thesis, written by Mohammad Saiful Islam and entitled Impacts of Climate, Land Cover and Hydrologic Changes on Stormwater Runoff in Central Florida, having been approved in respect to style and intellectual content, is referred to you for judgment. We have read this thesis and recommend that it be approved. _______________________________________ Assefa M. Melesse _______________________________________ Berrin Tansel _______________________________________ Omar I. Abdul-Aziz, Major Professor Date of Defense: November 12, 2015 The thesis of Mohammad Saiful Islam is approved. _______________________________________ Interim Dean Ranu Jung College of Engineering and Computing _______________________________________ Dean Lakshmi N. Reddi University Graduate School Florida International University, 2015 ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr. Omar I. Abdul-Aziz for his continuous mentoring, advice and encouragement throughout my graduate studies at FIU. I would also like to thank my thesis committee members, Dr. Assefa M. Melesse and Dr. Berrin Tansel, for their time, assistance and valuable suggestions that helped me greatly in completing this research. I am grateful to my entire family, especially my wife, Tasnuva Mahjabin, for her immense support and encouragement during my hard times. The research was financially supported by the State of Florida Office of Insurance Regulations through the “Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model Enhancements” project. iii ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, LAND COVER AND HYDROLOGIC CHANGES ON STORMWATER RUNOFF IN CENTRAL FLORIFA by Mohammad Saiful Islam Florida International University, 2015 Miami, Florida Professor Omar I. Abdul-Aziz, Major Professor Changes in climate and land use/cover can cause great impacts on the hydrologic processes, especially on stormwater runoff generation. Considering the Shingle Creek Basin in Central Florida as an example of complex inland urban-natural basins, we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to plausible scenarios of climatic, land use/cover and hydrologic changes by developing a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Potential storm runoff in the coupled urban-natural basin exhibited high and notably different seasonal sensitivities to rainfall. The total basin runoff was highly sensitive to the basin imperviousness, while showing moderate to low sensitivities to the evapotranspiration, slope and roughness. The changes in runoff under simultaneous hydro-climatic and climate-land cover perturbations were notably different than the summations of their individual contributions. The study findings can be useful in managing stormwater runoff in the Shingle Creek and similar complex urban-natural basins around the world. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................1 1.1 Background ..............................................................................................................1 1.2 Significance of the Study ..........................................................................................2 1.3 Objectives of the Study............................................................................................ 2 1.4 Organization of the Thesis ........................................................................................3 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................4 CHAPTER 3: MATERIALS AND METHODS ...............................................................10 3.1 Study Basin ..............................................................................................................10 3.2 Preparation of Datasets ............................................................................................12 3.2.1 Weather Data ...................................................................................................12 3.2.2 Groundwater Data ............................................................................................15 3.2.3 Soil Type and Imperviousness Data .................................................................16 3.2.4 Stream Flow and Bathymetric Data .................................................................19 3.2.5 Digital Elevation Model ...................................................................................20 3.3 Model Development................................................................................................21 3.3.1 Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM 5.1) ....................................21 3.3.2 Model Setup .....................................................................................................23 3.3.2.1 Subcatchment Discretization and Stream Network Delineation ..............23 3.3.2.2 Subcatchment and Stream Network Parametrization .............................25 3.3.3 Model Calibration and Validation ....................................................................26 3.4 Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................30 3.4.1 Sensitivity Scenarios and Selected Parameters ................................................31 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................33 4.1 Model Evaluation .....................................................................................................33 4.2 Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................................................36 4.2.1 Hydro-climatic Sensitivities..............................................................................36 4.2.1.1 Rainfall .......................................................................................................36 4.2.1.2 Evapotranspiration .....................................................................................39 4.2.2 Land Cover and Hydrologic Sensitivities .........................................................41 4.2.2.1 Imperviousness ..........................................................................................41 4.2.2.2 Basin Roughness and Slope .......................................................................43 4.2.3 Combined Hydro-climatic and Land Cover Sensitivities ....................................44 4.2.3.1 Combined Rainfall and Evapotranspiration Sensitivities ..............................45 4.2.3.2 Combined Rainfall and Imperviousness Sensitivities ....................................46 4.2.3.3 Combined Imperviousness and Evapotranspiration Sensitivities ..................47 4.3 Comparison with Previous Studies ........................................................................ 48 v CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .....................................50 5.1 Conclusions ..............................................................................................................50 5.2 Recommendations ....................................................................................................52 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................53 APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................54 vi LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE Figure 3.1: Shingle Creek Basin ........................................................................................11 Figure 3.2: Location of rainfall stations .............................................................................14 Figure 3.3: Groundwater Observation wells used for the model. ......................................16 Figure 3.4: Distribution of soil types in Shingle Creek. ....................................................17 Figure 3.5: NLCD 2011 Percent imperviousness data. ......................................................18 Figure 3.6: Observed daily stream discharge at calibration point for 2012 and 2013 .......19 Figure 3.7: Shingle Creek digital elevation model (DEM) ................................................20 Figure
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