Barton Deakin Brief: Same-Sex Marriage Survey Results

17 November 2017

On Wednesday, November 15, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the result of the Government’s Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey. The survey returned a national result of 61.6 per cent in favour of support of changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry, and 38.4 per cent against. This Barton Deakin Brief will break down the result of the vote.

Background

The Same-Sex Marriage Survey was approved by the High Court on 7 September 2017 after a challenge by Australian Marriage Equality and PFLAG Brisbane. The survey was conducted by the ABS via Post from 12 September to 7 November. The question put was: Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?

The positive result for the ‘Yes’ vote means the Government will facilitate the consideration of a Private Members’ Bill in the final sitting fortnight of the House of Representatives, scheduled to begin on November 27.

Senator Dean Smith’s Private Members Bill was introduced with cross-party support to the Senate at 9:30am, 16 November 2017. Senator Smith’s Bill provides religious exemptions for clergy and churches who refuse to conduct same-sex marriages due to their religious beliefs.

Attorney General Senator the Hon has signalled his intention to amend the Smith bill to provide additional protections for civil marriage celebrants, and protections for people of faith to hold and express their own views on marriage. Various other Parliamentarians have indicated support for further amendments regarding religious protection, free speech and other matters. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has stated he would like to see the bill voted on and legislated by Christmas.

Results Nationally

• Yes responses – 7,817,247, representing 61.6 per cent of the vote; No responses – 4,873,987 representing 38.4 per cent of the vote.

• A further 36,686 responses were unclear.

• Total participation was – 12,727,920, representing 79.5 per cent of the eligible voting population.

State and Territory Level

• Every State and Territory recorded a majority yes result. • Every state and territory recorded a majority yes result over 60 per cent, with the exception of which recorded a majority yes result of 57.8 per cent. • The Australian Capital Territory had the highest majority yes, at 74 per cent. • Every state achieved a participation rate of over 75 per cent, except for the , where participation was 58.4 per cent.

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By Commonwealth Electoral Division

• Of the 150 Commonwealth Electorates, a majority yes outcome was recorded for 133 electorates and a majority no outcome was recorded for 17 electorates. • Within those 133 Electorates with a majority yes response, there were 95 Electorates with a majority yes response of over 60 per cent. • Within those 17 Electorates with a majority no response, there were 6 Electorates with a majority no response of over 60 per cent.

By Political Party

• The Liberal Party of Australia holds 57 seats, of which 53 corresponding electorates returned a majority Yes response. • The Nationals hold 17 seats in the Parliament, of which 16 corresponding electorates returned a majority Yes response. • The hold 69 seats, of which 58 corresponding electorates returned a majority Yes response.

Electorate Results

New South Wales (Yes: 57.8% - No: 42.2% - Participation: 79.5%) Electorate Yes No Held by Member Vote in Voting % % Plebiscite* intention on the Smith Bill** 83.7 16.3 ALP The Hon Yes Yes MP Wentworth 80.8 19.2 LIB The Hon Malcolm Turnbull Yes Yes MP Grayndler 79.9 20.1 ALP The Hon Yes Yes MP Warringah 75.0 25.0 LIB The Hon MP No Will facilitate vote. Newcastle 74.8 25.2 ALP MP Yes Yes North Sydney 71.8 28.2 LIB MP Yes Yes Mackellar 68.0 32.0 LIB MP Yes Yes Richmond 67.9 32.1 ALP MP Yes Yes Shortland 67.7 32.3 ALP MP Yes Yes Cunningham 65.7 34.3 ALP MP Yes Yes Dobell 65.7 34.3 ALP Emma McBride MP Yes Yes Robertson 65.7 34.3 LIB MP No Yes Paterson 65.5 34.5 ALP MP Yes Yes Eden-Monaro 64.9 35.1 ALP The Hon Dr Mike Kelly Yes Yes AM MP Hunter 64.4 35.6 ALP The Hon Yes Yes MP Kingsford 64.1 35.9 ALP MP Yes Yes Smith Macquarie 63.9 36.1 ALP MP Yes Yes Whitlam 62.3 37.7 ALP Stephen Jones Yes Yes Gilmore 62.0 38.0 LIB Ann Sudmalis MP Undeclared Undeclared Bradfield 60.6 39.4 LIB The Hon Paul Fletcher MP Yes Yes Calare 60.2 39.8 NAT MP Undeclared Undeclared Cowper 60.0 40.0 NAT The Hon Luke Hartsuyker Undeclared Yes MP Page 59.7 40.3 NAT MP Yes Yes

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Hume 58.6 41.4 LIB The Hon Angus Taylor MP Undeclared Yes Hughes 58.4 41.6 LIB MP No Yes Lindsay 56.2 43.8 ALP Emma Husar MP Yes Yes Lyne 55.3 44.7 NAT The Hon Dr David No Undeclared Gillespie MP Farrer 55.2 44.8 LIB MP Yes Yes Cook 55.0 45.0 LIB The Hon No Undeclared. MP Depends on bill. Berowra 54.6 45.4 LIB MP No Yes Riverina 54.6 45.4 NAT The Hon Michael No Yes McCormack MP Reid 52.7 47.3 LIB The Hon Craig Laundy MP Undeclared Yes Parkes 52.7 47.3 NAT MP Undeclared Undeclared New England 52.5 47.5 NAT* No No vote. Facing by-election. Macarthur 52.1 47.9 ALP MP Yes Yes Bennelong 49.8 50.2 LIB* John Alexander MP Yes No vote. Facing by-election. Mitchell 49.1 50.9 LIB The Hon MP No Undeclared Greenway 46.4 53.6 ALP MP Yes Yes Banks 44.9 55.1 LIB David Coleman MP Yes Yes Barton 43.6 56.4 ALP The Hon MP Yes Yes Chifley 41.3 58.7 ALP MP Yes Yes Parramatta 38.4 61.6 ALP MP Yes Yes Fowler 36.3 63.7 ALP MP No Undeclared Werriwa 36.3 63.7 ALP Anne Stanley MP Yes Yes McMahon 35.1 64.9 ALP The Hon MP Yes Yes Watson 30.4 69.6 ALP The Hon MP Yes Yes Blaxland 26.1 73.9 ALP The Hon MP Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator the Hon Doug Yes Yes Cameron Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Jenny McAllister Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Deborah O'Neill Undeclared Undeclared Senate GRN Yes Yes Senate LDP Senator David Leyonhjelm Yes Yes Senate LIB Senator the Hon Concetta No Yes Fierravanti-Wells Senate LIB Senator the Hon Marise Yes Yes Payne Senate LIB Senator the Hon Arthur Yes Yes Sinodinos AO Senate LIB Vacancy – Fiona Nash - - Senate NAT Senator John Williams No Undeclared Senate ONE Senator Brian Burston Undeclared Undeclared NATION

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Victoria (Yes: 64.9% - No: 35.1% - Participation: 81.7%) Electorate Yes No Held by Member Vote in Voting intention % % Plebiscite* on the Smith Bill** 83.7 16.3 GRN MP Yes Yes Melbourne 82.0 18.0 ALP Michael Danby MP Yes Yes Ports Higgins 78.3 21.7 LIB The Hon Kelly O’Dwyer Yes Yes MP Goldstein 76.3 23.7 LIB Tim Wilson MP Yes Yes Kooyong 73.7 26.3 LIB The Hon Yes Yes MP Jagajaga 73.5 26.5 ALP The Hon Yes Yes MP Dunkley 72.0 28.0 LIB Chris Crewther MP Yes Yes Corangamite 71.6 28.4 LIB MP Yes Yes Batman 71.2 28.8 ALP David Feeney MP Yes Yes Ballarat 70.5 29.5 ALP The Hon Catherine King Yes Yes MP Flinders 70.0 30.0 LIB The Hon MP Yes Yes Wills 70.0 30.0 ALP MP Yes Yes Bendigo 68.7 31.3 ALP MP Yes Yes Casey 68.1 31.9 LIB The Hon Tony Smith MP No Speaker does not have a vote Gellibrand 68.1 31.9 ALP MP Yes Yes Corio 67.7 32.3 ALP The Hon Yes Yes MP La Trobe 67.5 32.5 LIB MP Yes Yes Deakin 65.7 34.3 LIB The Hon No Yes MP McEwen 65.4 34.6 ALP Rob Mitchell MP Yes Yes Isaacs 65.3 34.7 ALP The Hon Richard Dreyfus Yes Yes QC MP Indi 63.1 36.9 IND Cathy McGowan AO MP Yes Yes McMillan 62.7 37.3 LIB MP Undeclared Undeclared Aston 62.0 38.0 LIB The Hon MP No Yes Chisholm 61.6 38.4 LIB Julia Banks MP Yes Yes Wannon 61.0 39.0 LIB The Hon MP No Yes Gippsland 60.2 39.8 NAT The Hon Yes Yes MP Maribyrnong 59.9 40.1 ALP The Hon MP Yes Yes Hotham 59.6 40.4 ALP Clare O’Neil MP Yes Yes Murray 57.6 42.4 NAT MP Yes Yes Menzies 57.0 43.0 LIB The Hon Kevin Andrews No No MP Lalor 56.8 43.2 ALP MP Yes Yes Mallee 54.3 45.7 NAT MP No Yes Scullin 53.4 46.6 ALP MP Yes Yes Gorton 53.3 46.7 ALP The Hon Brendan Yes Yes O’Connor MP Holt 50.7 49.3 ALP Anthony Byrne MP Undeclared Undeclared Bruce 46.9 53.1 ALP MP Yes Yes Calwell 43.2 56.8 ALP MP Undeclared Yes

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Senate NAT Senator the Hon Bridget No No McKenzie Senate LIB Senator the Hon Mitch Yes Yes Fifield Senate LIB Senator Yes Yes Senate LIB Senator James Paterson Yes Yes Senate LIB Senator the Hon Scott Undeclared Yes Ryan Senate JUSTICE Senator Derryn Hinch Yes Yes Senate GRN Senator Yes Yes Senate GRN Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator the Hon Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator the Hon Jacinta No Undeclared Collins Senate ALP Senator Kimberley Yes Yes Kitching Senate ALP Senator Gavin Marshall Yes Yes

Queensland (Yes: 60.7% - No: 39.3% - Participation: 77.9%) Electorate Yes No Held by Member Vote in Voting intention % % Plebiscite* on the Smith Bill** Brisbane 79.5 20.5 LIB Trevor Evans MP Yes Yes Griffith 76.6 23.4 ALP Terri Butler MP Yes Yes Ryan 72.7 27.3 LIB The Hon Jane Prentice MP Undeclared Undeclared Lilley 67.7 32.3 ALP MP Yes Yes McPherson 65.5 34.5 LIB The Hon Undeclared Yes MP Dickson 65.2 34.8 LIB The Hon MP No Yes Fairfax 64.3 35.7 LIB Ted O’Brien MP No Yes Moncrieff 63.8 36.2 LIB The Hon Steve Ciobo MP Undeclared Yes Leichhardt 63.4 36.6 LIB Warren Entsch MP Yes Yes Herbert 62.8 37.2 ALP Cathy O’Toole MP Yes Yes Fisher 62.8 37.2 LIB Andrew Wallace MP Yes Yes Bowman 62.1 37.9 LIB Andrew Laming MP Undeclared Yes Bonner 62.0 38.0 LIB Ross Vasta MP No Undeclared Fadden 61.8 38.2 LIB MP No Undeclared Petrie 61.6 38.4 LIB MP No Undeclared Moreton 60.9 39.1 ALP Graham Perrett MP Yes Yes Forde 60.5 39.5 LIB Bert Van Manen MP No Undeclared Longman 60.4 39.6 ALP Susan Lamb MP Yes Yes Oxley 60.3 39.7 ALP Milton Dick MP Yes Yes Blair 60.0 40.0 ALP Shayne Neumann MP Yes Yes Wright 56.8 43.2 LIB MP No Undeclared Wide Bay 55.6 44.4 NAT Llew O’Brien MP No Undeclared Dawson 55.1 44.9 NAT George Christensen MP No Undeclared. Depends on the bill Rankin 54.6 45.4 ALP Dr MP Yes Yes Capricornia 54.1 45.9 NAT MP Undeclared Yes Flynn 51.5 48.5 NAT Ken O’Dowd MP No Yes Hinkler 50.7 49.3 NAT The Hon MP No Undeclared

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Groom 49.2 50.8 LIB John McVeigh MP No Undeclared. Depends on bill. Kennedy 46.7 53.3 KAT Bob Katter MP No No Maranoa 43.9 56.1 NAT MP No No Senate ALP Senator Anthony Chisholm Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator No Undeclared Senate ALP Senator Claire Moore Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate GRN Senator Andrew Bartlett Yes Yes Senate LIB Senator the Hon George Yes Yes Brandis QC Senate LIB Senator the Hon Ian Undeclared Will follow Macdonald national result Senate LIB Senator the Hon James Undeclared Undeclared McGrath Senate NAT Senator the Hon Matt No Depends on bill Canavan Senate NAT Senator Barry O'Sullivan No Depends on bill Senate ONE Senator Fraser Anning Undeclared Undeclared NATION Senate ONE Senator No Undeclared NATION

Western Australia (Yes 63.7%, No 36.3%, Participation 78.4%) Electorate Yes No Held by Member Vote in Voting intention % % Plebiscite* on the Smith Bill** Curtin 72.2 27.8 LIB The Hon MP Yes Yes Perth 71.5 28.5 ALP Tim Hammond MP Yes Yes Fremantle 70.1 29.9 ALP MP Yes Yes Moore 68.0 32.0 LIB Ian Goodenough MP No Yes Brand 67.1 32.9 ALP Madeleine King Yes Yes Swan 64.7 35.3 LIB MP Undeclared Undeclared Pearce 63.9 36.1 LIB The Hon Undeclared Depends on bill MP Forrest 63.8 36.2 LIB MP No Undeclared Hasluck 62.4 37.6 LIB The Hon AM Undeclared Yes MP Tangney 61.6 38.4 LIB MP Undeclared Yes Stirling 61.1 38.9 LIB The Hon Michael Keenan No Yes MP Canning 60.2 39.8 LIB MP No Abstain Durack 59.2 40.8 LIB Melissa Price MP Yes Yes Cowan 58.8 41.2 ALP Anne Aly MP Yes Yes Burt 57.0 43.0 ALP Matt Keogh MP Yes Yes O'Connor 56.2 43.8 LIB Rick Wilson MP No Undeclared. Depends on bill Senate LIB Senator the Hon Mathias No Yes Cormann Senate LIB Senator the Hon Michaelia No Undeclared Cash Senate LIB Senator Yes Yes Senate LIB Senator Dean Smith Yes Yes

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Senate LIB Senator No No Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ONE Senator Peter Georgiou Undeclared Yes NATION Senate GRN Senator Sue Lines Yes Yes Senate GRN Senator Jordan Steele-John Yes Yes

South Australia (Yes: 62.5% - No: 37.5% - Participation: 79.7%) Electorate Yes No Held by Member Vote in Voting intention % % Plebiscite* on the Smith Bill** 70.1 29.9 ALP The Hon Kate Ellis MP Yes Yes Boothby 68.5 31.5 LIB Nicolle Flint MP No Yes Kingston 68.1 31.9 ALP The Hon Amanda Yes Yes Rishworth MP Mayo 64.7 35.3 NXT MP Yes Yes Hindmarsh 63.3 36.7 ALP Steve Georganas MP Yes Yes Sturt 61.6 38.4 LIB The Hon Christopher Yes Yes Pyne MP Port Adelaide 61.3 38.7 ALP The Hon Yes Yes MP Wakefield 61.0 39.0 ALP MP Yes Yes Makin 60.4 39.6 ALP Tony Zappia MP Undeclared Undeclared Grey 53.3 46.7 LIB Rowan Ramsey MP No Yes Barker 52.3 47.7 LIB Tony Pasin MP No Yes Senate NXT Senator Yes Yes Senate NXT Senator Skye Kakoschke- Yes Yes Moore Senate NXT Senator Undeclared Yes Senate LIB Senator the Hon Simon Yes Yes Birmingham Senate LIB Senator No Undeclared. Likely to abstain Senate LIB Senator the Hon Anne No Yes Ruston Senate IND Senator Lucy Gichuhi Undeclared No Senate GRN Senator Sarah Hanson- Yes Yes Young Senate CON Senator Cory Bernardi No No Senate ALP Senator the Hon Don No No Farrell Senate ALP Senator Undeclared Undeclared Senate ALP Senator the Hon Penny Yes Yes Wong

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Tasmania (Yes: 63.6% - No: 36.4% - Participation: 79.7%) Electorate Yes % No Held by Member Vote in Voting % Plebiscite* intention on the Smith Bill** Denison 73.8 26.2 IND MP Yes Yes Franklin 68.8 31.2 ALP The Hon Yes Yes MP Bass 61.7 38.3 ALP Ross Hart MP Yes Yes Lyons 58.7 41.3 ALP Brian Mitchell MP Yes Yes Braddon 54.0 46.0 ALP MP Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Undeclared Undeclared. Depends on bill. Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate ALP Senator Yes Yes Senate GRN Senator Nick McKim Yes Yes Senate GRN Senator Peter Whish- Yes Yes Wilson Senate JLN Vacancy – Jacqui - - Lambie Senate LIB Senator the Hon Eric No Undeclared. Abetz Depends on bill. Senate LIB Senator David Bushby No Undeclared. Depends on bill. Senate LIB Senator Jonathon No Yes Duniam Senate LIB Vacancy – Stephen - - Parry

Northern Territory (Yes: 60.6% - No: 39.4% - Participation: 58.4%) Electorate Yes % No Held by Member Vote in Voting intention % Plebiscite* on the Smith Bill** Solomon 65.3 34.7 ALP Luke Gosling MP Yes Yes Lingiari 54.5 45.5 ALP The Hon Warren Yes Yes Snowdon MP Senate ALP Senator Malarndirri Yes Yes McCarthy Senate LIB Senator the Hon Nigel Yes Yes Scullion

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Australian Capital Territory (Yes: 74.0% - No: 26.0% - Participation: 82.4%) Electorate Yes % No Held by Member Vote in Voting intention % Plebiscite* on the Smith Bill** 74.1 25.9 ALP Gai Brodtmann MP Yes Yes Fenner 74.0 26.0 ALP The Hon Dr Andrew Yes Yes Leigh MP Senate LAB Senator Yes Yes Senate LIB Senator the Hon Zed No Depends on Seselja religious protections.

* Votes of members in the Plebiscite are sourced from Australian Marriage Equality. ** Stated voting intentions of Members on the Dean Smith Bill are sourced from the ABC and The Australian.

Further Information

For more information, please contact David Alexander on 0457 400 524, Grahame Morris on 0411 222 680, or Robert Bower on 0430 036 667.

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