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Botswana És a Gyémánt

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Botswana És a Gyémánt Botswana és a gyémánt Biedermann Zsuzsánna1 – Czirják Ráhel A jelen tanulmány a gyémántkitermelés botswanai történetét, a gyémántiparban napjaink- ban bekövetkezett változásokat, valamint a De Beers gyémántcég és Botswana kapcsolatát mutatja be. A dél-afrikai államban történő gyémántkitermelés kezdeti évtizedei során a De Beers dominanciája jellemezte a kapcsolatot, ám a vállalat afrikai államtól való fokozódó füg- gősége, továbbá a világpiacon vezető pozíciójának elvesztése következtében a helyzet mára megfordult. A De Beers gyémántkereskedelmi központjának Londonból Gaboronéba való át- költöztetése szépen jelzi a kapcsolatban való súlyponteltolódást. Ám Botswana gazdaságának gyémántfüggősége sok kérdést vet fel azzal kapcsolatban, hogy vajon a helyi gyémántcsiszo- ló üzemek képesek lesznek-e a gazdaság motorjaivá válni, és új munkahelyeket teremteni a nyersgyémánt-kitermelés helyett, amikor az ország készletei kimerülnek. Ezek a felvetések indokoltak, annál is inkább, mert a botswanai feldolgozó szektornak az olcsóbb indiai és kínai, valamint a nagy múltú izraeli, belga és amerikai csiszolókkal kell versenybe szállniuk. This study aims to present the history of diamond extraction in Botswana, as well as the recent changes in the world diamond industry and the mutual relationship between Botswana and De Beers diamond exploration, mining, retail and trading group of companies. During the initial decades of diamond extraction in Botswana this relationship was characterized by De Beers’ predomination, but this has been reversed due to the company’s growing dependence on the South African country’s diamond reserves parallel to De Beers’ loss of market leader position in the world diamond industry. The moving of De Beers’ diamond trading centre from London to Gaborone signals this power shift. However, due to the diamond-dependence of the Botswanan economy, there are growing fears whether the local diamond beneficiation can become the growth engine creating jobs and replacing rough diamond exports when diamonds run out. Concerns are justified since Botswana’s manufacturing sector has to compete cheaper Indian and Chinese diamond beneficiation centres and more competent Israeli, Belgian and American centres. * * * világ gyémántpiacának alakulá- években a gyémántpiac hektikus válto- sa elválaszthatatlanul összefonó- zásai miatt a De Beers a korábbi árazási A dik a gyémántkitermelés, -mar- modelljének felülvizsgálatára kénysze- keting és -disztribúció egyik piacvezető rült, és közben jelentős piacokat vesztett. vállalatával, a De Beersszel, a cég törté- Ugyanakkor a még néhány évvel ezelőtt nete pedig a legjelentősebb kitermelő or- is afrikai sikertörténetként aposztrofált2 szága, Botswana fejlődésével. Az utóbbi Botswana szintén súlyos kihívásokkal 52 Külügyi Szemle Botswana és a gyémánt néz szembe gyémántvagyona apadása egykori brit protektorátus a függetlenség miatt: napjainkban egyre kétkedőbb vé- kikiáltása idején (1966) nemcsak a kon- lemények látnak napvilágot az ország tinens, de a világ egyik legszegényebb gazdasági fejlődésének fenntarthatóságát országa is volt: 70 dollár körüli egy főre illetően.3 jutó GDP-vel,5 több mint 580.000 km2-es Mivel a De Beers az utóbbi években területén összesen 12 kilométernyi asz- veszített világpiaci befolyásából, növek- faltozott úttal rendelkezett,6 állampolgá- vő mértékben támaszkodik a fő kiterme- rai közül pedig két tucatnál is kevesebb- lő országára, Botswanára. A dél-afrikai nek volt egyetemi diplomája, és mind- állam az egyoldalú, gyémántkitermelésre össze körülbelül száznak középiskolai alapozott gazdasági fejlődését úgy igyek- végzettsége.7 szik diverzifikálni, hogy a De Beershez A függetlenség elnyerése utáni években fűződő szoros kapcsolata révén helyi fel- az állami költségvetés jelentős mértékben dolgozóipari kapacitások létesítését eről- a britek anyagi segítségére támaszkodott, teti. Pótolhatja-e a feltörekvő botswanai a befolyt összegből az adminisztráció és gyémántfeldolgozó ipar a csökkenő gyé- a fejlesztések költségeit fedezték.8 Ám mántvagyon miatt kieső jövedelmeket? Botswana gazdasági felemelkedésére Ahhoz, hogy a kérdésre választ adhas- nem kellett sokat várni, ugyanis időköz- sunk, a De Beers gyémántpiaci szerepét ben a világ legnagyobb gyémántkiterme- és a botswanai gyémántkitermelés alaku- lő vállalatcsaládja, a De Beers geológu- lását történelmi perspektívában tekint- sai három nagyobb gyémántlelőhelyre jük át, majd kitérünk arra, hogy milyen (Orapa, Letlhakane, Jwaneng) bukkantak gyémántpiaci változások állnak a bots- a területén, melyek közül elsőként, 1971- wanai befolyás erősödése és a De Beers ben, Orapában indult meg a drágakő- piacvesztése mögött. Ezt követően a gyé- kitermelés.9 mántok helyi feldolgozásának néhány A gyémántnak köszönhetően Botswa- évre visszatekintő elemzésével, illetve a na gyorsabb növekedési ütemet tudott vállalat és a mindenkori botswanai kor- felmutatni, mint az ázsiai „kistigrisek” mány érdek-összefonódásainak vizsgála- vagy Kína: 1966 és 1980 között átla- tával folytatjuk a tanulmányunkat. Végül gosan évi 14,5 százalék,10 1981 és 1990 áttekintjük, hogy lehet-e jövője a helyi között 10,9,11 az ezredforduló környékén feldolgozásnak. 9,12 napjainkban pedig 4 százalék körüli13 GDP-növekedést produkált. Afrikai sikertörténet – itt a vége? Ám az értékes természeti erőforrás önmagában nem lett volna elég ahhoz, Az „afrikai sikersztoriként”4 emlegetett hogy az ország ilyen dinamikus növe- Botswana függetlenség utáni története kedési pályára álljon. A siker kulcsa volt egybeforrt a gyémánttal – annak minden még a fiskális fegyelem és a rátermett 14 előnyével és hátrányával egyetemben. Az menedzsment, illetve a stabil politikai és 2016. tél 53 Biedermann Zsuzsánna – Czirják Ráhel gazdasági környezet is, amelyet a politi- folytatott – és folytat a mai napig –, a kai elit megfontolt kormányzással alakí- gyémántbevételekre alapozva: ha a vi- tott ki. Botswana függetlenné válásával a lágpiaci ár magas, a „pluszt” befektetik, Botswanai Demokratikus Párt (Botswana és a gazdaságba mindig csak annyit ára- Democratic Party, BDP) került hatalom- moltatnak, amennyit az „túlhevülés” nél- ra, Seretse Khama vezetésével. A párt kül fel tud szívni. 1994-ben létrehozták alapítói az ország legképzettebb tagjai a Pula Fundot, amely a gyémántokból közül kerültek ki.15 A kormánypárt kö- származó bevétel egy részét a jövő gene- rültekintően és békésen kormányzott – és rációk számára kezeli, alacsony bevéte- kormányoz mind a mai napig,16 ugyanis lek idején pedig az oda félretett pénz egy az ötévente, mindeddig zavartalanul le- részét arra használják fel, hogy egyenle- bonyolított, szabad választásokat 1966 tes legyen a kormány rendelkezésére álló óta folyamatosan a BDP nyeri.17 források mennyisége.22 Annak ellenére, hogy az országot 50 A gyémántkitermelésből való na- éve ugyanaz a párt vezeti, a Transparency gyobb állami részesedés megfelelő fede- International adatai szerint Botswana zetet biztosít a fejlesztéspolitika finan- Afrika legkevésbé korrupt állama.18 Ez a szírozására is. A függetlenedés pillana- kedvező kép azonban a kilencvenes évek tától kezdve ugyanis az állam vállalta óta folyamatosan és növekvő mértékben magára az infrastruktúra és az oktatás erodálódik – lásd az „A De Beers befo- fejlesztésének feladatát.23 E tekintetben lyása Botswana politikai életére” című jelentős sikereket könyvelhet el, hiszen részt –, habár szubszaharai összehason- mára közel 18.000 km aszfaltozott út és lításban Botswanában valóban példaérté- 888 km-nyi vasúti pálya épült, továbbá kűen alacsony a korrupció mértéke. az országban több mint 70 repülőtér ta- A stabil makroökonómiai környezet lálható. A lakosság 96 százaléka számára fontos részét képezi, hogy a kormány elérhető az egészséges ivóvíz, az írni-ol- tárgyalások révén 1975-ben elérte a he- vasni tudók aránya pedig 88,5 százalék.24 lyi gyémántkitermelésért felelős De Mindezek következtében Botswana Beersnél, hogy a korábbi 85-15 százalé- mára az egyik legszegényebb országból kos19 megoszlás helyett 50-50 százalék a közepes jövedelműek közé emelkedett. legyen a két fél részesedése a botswanai Vásárlóerő-paritáson számolt egy főre gyémántbányákból.20 Ez az új arány azon jutó GDP tekintetében (17.700 dollár) az túl, hogy megnövelte az állam bevételeit, afrikai élmezőnybe tartozik,25 megelőzve tovább fokozta Botswana befektetői vonz- a Dél-afrikai Köztársaságot is. erejét is, hiszen a kiegyenlített erőviszo- A látványos növekedés ellenére sokan nyok következtében hatékony együttmű- megkérdőjelezik az ország gazdasági si- ködés bontakozott ki a két fél között.21 kerességét: szerintük a növekedéssel pár- Az állam a gyakorlatban rendkívül huzamosan nem ment végbe tényleges prudens, óvatos makrogazdasági politikát fejlődés.26 A lakosságon belül hatalmas 54 Külügyi Szemle Botswana és a gyémánt a jövedelmi egyenlőtlenség: a társadalom Ez azért jelent súlyos problémát, mert felső tizede rendelkezik a jövedelmek fe- a botswanai gyémántkitermelés jelentős lével, míg az alsó tized csupán az 1 szá- változások előtt áll: becslések szerint zalékával.27 A népesség egyharmada a mintegy 10 éven belül (de legkésőbb szegénységi küszöb alatt él.28 2027-től) számottevően vissza fog esni, Az ország gazdaságilag továbbra is mivel a jelenlegi fejtési technikákkal egyetlen lábon áll: a GDP negyedét a bá- kitermelhető gyémánt elfogy. A bonyo- nyászat teszi ki29 – ami döntően a gyé- lultabb kitermelési technológia, ame- mántkitermelést jelenti –, az adóbevé- lyet egy évtized múlva alkalmazni telek közel 60 százaléka,30 valamint az kell majd,
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