20162017 ANNUAL HigherREPORT20162017 Education to the Member States inANNUAL Focus 2019 Essential Performance Indicators forREPORT Midwestern States to the Member States MHEC Est. 1991

*North Dakota and South Dakota are members of both MHEC and the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).

ABOUT THE MIDWESTERN HIGHER © Copyright 2020 Midwestern Higher Education Compact. EDUCATION COMPACT All rights reserved.

The Midwestern Higher Education Compact (MHEC) is a Data analysis was conducted by Shaun Williams-Wyche, nonprofit regional organization, established by statute, to research manager. MHEC would like to acknowledge the assist Midwestern states in advancing higher education helpful feedback of members of the Review Panel for through interstate cooperation and resource sharing. State Policy and Performance Data. Member states, all of which comprise the Midwest census Correspondence concerning this report should be sent to region, are Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Aaron Horn, associate vice president of research, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South [email protected]. Dakota, and Wisconsin. Collectively, the Compact creates solutions that build higher education’s capacity to better Additional indicators are available in the MHEC serve individuals, institutions, and states by leveraging Interactive Dashboard: https://www.mhec.org/ the region’s resources, expertise, ideas, and experiences dashboard. through multi-state convening, programs, contracts, and research. Updates to this report may be found at: http://www.mhec.org/research.

COMPACT LEADERSHIP, 2019-2020

Chair: Ms. Olivia Madison, Iowa Governor’s Designee Iowa State University (retired); Vice Chair: Dr. David Eisler, Ferris State University; Treasurer: Rep. Rick Carfagna, Ohio Legislature; Past Chair: Dr. Ken Sauer, Indiana Commission for Higher Education

President: Ms. Susan G. Heegaard

2 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Selected Indicators

PAGE PAGE INTRODUCTION 4 Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Degree/Certificate- Percentage of Jobs in 2020 that Will Require a Seeking Students who Graduated within Three Years at Postsecondary Education ...... 6 First Public Two-Year Institution and Graduated within Six Years at First Four-Year Institution by Pell Grant Recipient Job Openings by Occupation and Education Level between Status ...... 19 2010 and 2020 (in Thousands) ...... 6 Percentage of First-Time, Certificate/Degree-Seeking Percentage of Adults Aged 25-64 who have Attained a Students who Completed a Credential within Six Years at Postsecondary Credential by Race and Ethnicity ...... 7 Any Institution: Full- vs. Part-Time Students ...... 20 Public High School Graduate Trends Through 2032 by Race and Ethnicity ...... 8 AFFORDABILITY 21 Percentage of High School Sophomores in the United States who Attained a Postsecondary Credential Before Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Age 27 by Income ...... 8 Enrollment at Public Two-Year Institutions ...... 22 Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Enrollment at Public Four-Year Institutions ...... 23 PREPARATION 9 Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Percentage of Children Ages 3 to 4 Enrolled in Preschool . .10 Enrollment at Public Two- and Four-Year Institutions by Percentage of Students in Grade 8 Scoring at or Above Race and Ethnicity ...... 24 Proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational Percentage of Public Four-Year College Graduates with Progress in Math, Reading, and Science by Race and Student Loan Debt ...... 24 Ethnicity ...... 10 Average Student Loan Debt Among Public Four-Year Percentage of Students in Grade 8 Scoring at or Above College Graduates with Loans ...... 25 Proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational Progress in Math, Reading, and Science by Income . . . . .11 Public High School Graduation Rates by Income ...... 11 FINANCE 26 Public High School Graduation Rates by Race and Ethnicity .12 State and Local Educational Appropriations for Higher Education per FTE Student ...... 27 Percentage of High School Graduates Taking the ACT . . . .12 State Fiscal Support for Higher Education per $1,000 of Percentage of ACT-Tested High School Graduates Who Personal Income ...... 27 Completed a Core Curriculum by Race and Ethnicity . . . . 13 State and Local Educational Appropriations and Net Percentage of ACT-Tested High School Graduates Who Met Tuition Revenue as a Percentage of Total Educational or Exceeded College Readiness Benchmark Scores by Race Revenue for Public Postsecondary Institutions (per FTE and Ethnicity ...... 13 Student) ...... 28 State and Local Appropriations Relative to Total PARTICIPATION 14 Educational Expenditures per FTE Student at Public Doctoral Universities ...... 29 Percentage of High School Graduates Going Directly to College ...... 15 State and Local Appropriations Relative to Total Educational Expenditures per FTE Student at Public Percentage of Persons Aged 18-24 who are Currently Master’s Universities ...... 30 Enrolled or Have Completed Any College Credit by Race and Ethnicity ...... 15 State and Local Appropriations Relative to Total Educational Expenditures per FTE Student at Public Percentage of Dependent 18- to 24-Year-Old Residents Associate’s Colleges ...... 31 who are Currently Enrolled or Have Completed Any College Credit by Income ...... 16 State Need-Based Grant Aid per FTE Undergraduate Student ...... 32 Percentage of Persons Aged 25-49 without an Associate Degree or Higher who are Currently Enrolled in College . . .16 Percentage of State Grant Aid Defined as Need-Based . . . 33 Total State Need-Based Grant Aid Compared to Federal COMPLETION 17 Pell Grant Aid (in Millions) ...... 33 Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Degree/Certificate- Seeking Students who Transferred or Graduated within Three Years at First Public Two-Year Institution and Graduated within Six Years at First Four-Year Institution by Race and Ethnicity ...... 18

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 3 Introduction20162017

Future Workforce Demands ethnicity as well as family income. Relative to the White population in Minnesota, a lower percentage In the United States, approximately 65 percent of all ANNUAL of adults from underrepresented racial and ethnic jobs in 2020 will require some level of postsecondary backgrounds (American Indians, Blacks, and Hispanics) education, and the demand will reach 74 percent have completed a credential (see Figure 3).6 Such in Minnesota (see Figure 1).1 The projected demand disparities are particularly problematic in the context for postsecondary education in Minnesota spans all of future demographic trends, wherein the number of occupational categories, including managerial, STEM, REPORTunderrepresented minority high school graduates is community service, education, healthcare, food and projected to grow in Minnesota, compared to an eventual personal services, sales and office support, and “blue to the Member Statesdecline in the number of White high school graduates collar” industries (see Figure 2).2 In most of these (see Figure 4). categories, a diverse mix of postsecondary credentials from certificates to doctorates will be necessary for a Differences in college attainment by family income responsive and flexible workforce. are evident in national data. Figure 5 shows that lower percentages of high school students from low-income While the demand for postsecondary credentials has families ultimately obtain a college credential than do increased, the share of “good jobs” (jobs that pay students from higher-income families. For example, only at least $35,000 a year for adults under age 45) that 38% of high school sophomores in 2002 from families do not require at least some education beyond high earning under $25,000 per year earned a postsecondary school decreased nationally from 32% in 1991 to 20% credential by age 27, compared to 73% of sophomores in 2015. During that same time period, the percentage from families earning over $100,000 per year. of good jobs that require less than an associate degree decreased nationally from 51% to 34%. Furthermore, If these disparities in educational attainment are not most new good jobs that do not require a bachelor’s reduced, many states will be unable to reach their degree have been going to workers with at least some college attainment goals, and a growing share of the college or an associate degree, not to workers with only population will not be well prepared for changing a high school diploma.3 workforce and economic demands.

Increasing Educational Attainment in Minnesota An Imperative for Future Prosperity

Many states have set ambitious goals to improve the The ability of policymakers and others to help states educational attainment of their residents in order to reach attainment goals carries significant implications meet future workforce demands. Minnesota aims to raise for state revenue. Projections suggest that if the its college attainment level–the proportion of adults attainment goal in Minnesota were fulfilled by 2025, aged 25 to 44 with a postsecondary certificate or degree– substantial revenue would be generated through to 70 percent by 2025.4 Significant progress is needed, income tax, sales tax, property tax, Medicaid savings, as 62 percent of adults in Minnesota currently hold a and corrections savings.7 Moreover, policies that postsecondary certificate or degree.5 effectively raise levels of educational attainment will yield important civic and health benefits including In order to increase the overall college attainment higher rates of voting, volunteerism, and healthful rate in Minnesota, however, it is increasingly prenatal care.8 For example, health risk factors such as necessary to address attainment disparities. Critical smoking are less prevalent among individuals who have gaps persist in educational attainment by race and a bachelor’s degree or higher.9 Residents of Minnesota

4 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA also benefit from higher education in terms of higher indicators are categorized within five areas: Preparation, 20162017 earnings and lower unemployment, compared to those Participation, Completion, Affordability, and Finance. with only a high school diploma.10 Several indicators provide the national and MHEC regional values as well as the median of the top About this Report five states in the nation as possible benchmarks. This report seeks to inform public discourse on higher Performance indicators are disaggregated by race/ ANNUAL education by providing key performance indicators ethnicity and family income when data are available. relevant to the goal of improving educational attainment REPORT for a healthy economy and society. Performance to the Member States

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 5 Figure 1. Percentage of Jobs in 2020 that Will Require a Postsecondary Education

About 74 percent of all jobs in Minnesota will require some level of postsecondary education in 2020.

100 90 74 80 71 71 72 68 70 70 65 65 66 70 62 62 64 60 50 40 30 Percentage of Jobs 20 10 0

Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. (2013). Recovery: Job growth and education requirements through 2020.

Figure 2. Minnesota Job Openings by Occupation and Education Level between 2010 and 2020 (in Thousands)

The projected demand for postsecondary education in Minnesota spans all occupational categories.

300

250

200

150

100

50 Job Openings Thousands) (in Openings Job

0 Managerial Community Healthcare Food and and Healthcare Sales and STEM Social Sciences Services and Education Professional Personal Blue Collar Professional Support Office Support Arts and Technical Services Office Graduate Degree 31 11 5 11 31 20 1 3 10 2 Bachelor's Degree 73 25 1 24 21 17 3 24 76 14 Associate Degree 17 7 0 7 2 12 7 22 35 25 Some College 30 6 0 11 4 6 14 45 75 48 No College Required 19 3 0 3 3 1 11 73 68 107

Source: The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. (2013). Recovery: Job growth and education requirements through 2020.

6 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 3. Percentage of Adults Aged 25-64 100 in Minnesota who 90 80 have Attained a 70 Postsecondary 60 Credential by Race 49 50 39 41 and Ethnicity 40 28 30 20 21 23 23 22 22 16 There are 20 13 14 Percentage of Adults 8 significant gaps 10 * * * * in postsecondary 0 Some College, No Associate Degree Only Bachelor's Degree or degree attainment in Credential Higher Minnesota between underrepresented Total Asian/Pacific Islander minorities and Whites. Black Hispanic White Underrepresented Minority

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2019). ACS One-Year Estimates: 2018. Note: Certificate estimates are unavailable by race and ethnicity. The underrepresented minority category consists of American Indians, Blacks, and Hispanics. * Estimates are unavailable due to small sample sizes. Estimates for American Indians were unavailable for all attainment levels due to small sample sizes.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 7 Figure 4. Public High School Graduate 70,000 Trends in Minnesota 60,000 Through 2032 by Race and Ethnicity 50,000

The number 40,000 of underrepresented

minority high school 30,000 graduates is projected to grow in Minnesota, Number of Graduates 20,000 compared to an eventual 10,000 decline in the number

of White high school - 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 graduates. American Indian 799 830 671 611 580 497 479 458 Asian/Pacific Islander Source: Western Interstate 2,861 3,351 3,589 3,614 4,276 4,491 4,916 5,533 Commission for Higher Education. Black 2,510 3,678 3,869 4,116 4,778 5,498 5,795 6,843 (2016). Knocking at the College Hispanic 1,238 1,788 2,497 3,160 4,113 5,064 4,481 4,095 Door, 9th Ed. White 51,688 50,762 46,875 44,553 43,676 45,718 42,473 42,185 Note: The underrepresented Underrepresented Minority 4,547 6,296 7,037 7,887 9,471 11,060 10,754 11,397 minority category consists of Total 59,096 60,409 57,501 56,269 57,927 61,888 58,568 59,697 American Indians, Blacks, and Hispanics.

Figure 5. Percentage of High School 100 Sophomores in 90 80 the United States 70 62 who Attained a 60 47 Postsecondary 50 36 37 36 40 34 32 Credential Before Age 28 27 30 19 20 23 27 by Income 18 17 15 20 12 14 11 8 8 9 10 9 10 7 9 10 10 4 5 6 Nationally, only Sophomores of Percentage 0 38% of high school sophomores in 2002 from families earning under $25,000 per year earned a

postsecondary credential High school diploma or equivalent Some college, no credential by age 27, compared to Undergraduate certificate Associate degree 73% of sophomores from Bachelor's degree or above families earning over

$100,000 per year. Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2002, 2012). Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, High School Sophomores.

8 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Preparation20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

Academic preparation constitutes a key leverage point for improving postsecondary outcomes. The extent to which studentsANNUAL are academically prepared for college predicts bachelor’s degree completion beyond the effects of race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, institutional selectivity, attendance patterns, and academic performance during college.11 The cumulative nature of both academic competencies and deficits necessitates an assessment of academic preparedness that spans pre-K education, middle school, and high school. PreschoolREPORT enrollment. An early indicator of academic High school completion. Graduation rates are based on preparation is defined by the percentage of children the number of students who graduate in four years with ages 3 to to4 enrolled the in preschool. Member Early childhood aStates regular high school diploma.14 The completion of high education provides a critical foundation for successfully school or its equivalent is typically required for college managing subsequent academic challenges. Relative to admissions. children in control groups, participants in high-quality, High school completion indicators are provided by educationally-focused programs have exhibited greater race/ethnicity and income. Completion by income is long-term gains in IQ, lower rates of grade repetition and measured by graduation rates among low-income special education placements, and higher rates of high students who qualified for free- or reduced-price lunch school graduation and college attendance.12 Moreover, and “higher”-income students who were not eligible to cost-benefit analyses of such programs have shown participate in the National School Lunch Program. that benefits are 2.5 to 16.2 times greater than costs when accounting for such factors as adult earnings and High school graduates completing a core curriculum. cost savings in K-12 education, corrections, welfare, and An important indicator of college readiness reflects the healthcare. proportion of graduates taking the ACT who completed a core curriculum during high school. A core curriculum Academic proficiency of th8 grade students. The consists of four or more years of English and three or percentage of students in grade 8 scoring at or above more years each of math, social studies, and natural proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational science. Students completing a core curriculum are more Progress (NAEP) provides a measure of whether students likely to be ready for college or a career than students enter high school with foundational skills and knowledge who do not complete a core course sequence.15 This in such areas as math, reading, and science. In fact, 8th indicator is shown by race and ethnicity. grade academic achievement has been found to be a highly significant predictor of college readiness among Academic proficiency of high school graduates. The 12th grade students.13 proportion of graduates taking the ACT who meet college readiness benchmarks provides another measure of Academic proficiency indicators are provided by race the academic preparation of college-bound students. and ethnicity and income. Students who qualified Benchmark scores in English (18), mathematics (22), for free- or reduced-price lunch were classified as reading (22), and science (23) delineate a 75 percent low-income, while students who were not eligible to likelihood of attaining at least a “C” in first-year college- participate in the National School Lunch Program were level courses.16 Benchmark scores are provided by race classified as higher-income. Academic proficiency by and ethnicity. race and ethnicity is measured among American Indian, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, Hispanic, and White students.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 9 Figure 6. Percentage of Children Ages 3 to 4 Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median Enrolled in Preschool 100 90 The rate of preschool enrollment 80 70 in Minnesota currently 60 61 meets the national level, 60 46 48 48 48 though less than half of 50 45 45 children were enrolled in 40 preschool. 30 Percentage Enrolled 20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2010- 12, 2017-19). American Community 10 Survey One-Year: 2009-11, 2016-18. 0 Top 5 States, 2017: CT, NJ, VT, MA, NY. 2010 2017

Figure 7a. Percentage of Students in Grade 8 Scoring at or Above Proficiency on the National Assessment of Educational Progress in Math, Reading, and Science by Race and Ethnicity

Less than half of 8th grade students in Minnesota across most groups scored at or above the proficiency level in math, reading, or science. Proficiency in these subject areas was less common among students from diverse racial and ethnic backgrounds relative to White students.

Minnesota Midwest U.S.

100 90 80 70 62 57 60 53 5254 54 46 46 4546 50 4244 414142 41 37 40 28 30 24 212220 20 22 22 1618 19 18 18 17 1718 Percentage Proficient 20 15 141314 12 1315 13 15 11 8 11 10 0 Black Black Black White White White Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic American Indian American Indian American Indian American Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Math Reading Science

Source: National Center for Education Statistics. (2019). National assessment of educational progress. Estimates for NAEP Science are from 2015.

10 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 7b. Percentage of Students in Grade Minnesota Midwest U.S. 8 Scoring at or Above 100 Proficiency on the 90 National Assessment 80 of Educational 70 57 Progress in Math, 60 56 49 48 47 50 49 Reading, and Science 50 43 46 by Income 40 30 22 20 22 Percentage Proficient 19 18 18 20 20 18 A much larger 20 percentage of students 10 from higher-income 0 families were proficient Low-income Higher-income Low-income Higher-income Low-income Higher-income in tested subject areas Math Reading Science than were students from low-income families in Source: National Center for Education Statistics. (2019). National assessment of educational progress. Estimates for NAEP Science are from 2015. Minnesota.

Figure 8a. Public High School Graduation Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median Rates by Income 96 100 95 93 92 90 91 90 87 91 90 85 The high school 78 80 75 76 76 67 69 graduation rate of low- 70 income students in 60 Minnesota increased 50 over time but the gap 40 30 Graduation Rate Graduation between low-income and 20 high-income students 10 was 24 percentage points 0 Low-Income Higher-Income Low-Income Higher-Income in 2016-17, compared to Students Students Students Students the regional gap of 16 2014-15 2016-17 percentage points and the national gap of 13 Source: U.S. Department of Education. (2015, 2017). ED Data Express, ACGR. Top 5 States, 2017 (includes ties): Low- percentage points. Income Students: WV, KY, TX, SC, AR; Higher-income students: WV, IA, VT, MA, CT.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 11 Figure 8b. Public High School Graduation Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median Rates by Race and 100 96 90 91 93 Ethnicity 89 90 86 89 888989 90 838585 85 78 8080 American Indian, 80 72 72 67 65 66 Black, and Hispanic 70 60 high school students in 51 50 Minnesota graduate at 40 much lower rates than

Graduation Rate Graduation 30 White and Asian/Pacific 20 Islander students. 10 Source: U.S. Department of 0 Education. (2016-17). ED Data All Students American Asian/Pacific Black Hispanic White Express, ACGR. Top 5 States, 2017 Indian Islander (includes ties): All Students: IA, NJ, TN, KY, TX, WV.

Figure 9a. Percentage of High School Graduates Taking the ACT

Ninety-five percent of high school graduates in Minnesota took the ACT.17

2016 2019 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 96 95 88 90 82 80 7675 73 7472 68 70 66 64 60 52 50 41 40 35 29 30 19 20 Percentage of GraduatesTested 10

0 NE OH WI ND MN MO SD KS IA IL IN MI U.S.

Source: ACT. (2019). The Condition of College & Career Readiness, 2019. Note. Some Midwestern states require public school districts to offer the ACT or SAT on a school day (Minnesota), require high school students to take the ACT (Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin), or require students to take the ACT or SAT (Ohio).

12 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 9b. Percentage 100 of ACT-Tested High School Graduates Who 90

Completed a Core 80 73 Curriculum by Race 70 and Ethnicity 70 65 60 60 56 57 While 65 percent of all tested graduates 50 in Minnesota completed 40 a high school core 30 curriculum, completion 20 rates were lower among Percentage Completed Core Curriculum American Indians, Blacks, 10 and Hispanics. 0 All Students American Indian Asian/Pacific Black Hispanic White Source: ACT. (2018). The Condition of Islander College & Career Readiness, 2018.

Figure 10. Percentage of ACT-Tested High School Graduates Who Met or Exceeded College Readiness Benchmark Scores by Race and Ethnicity

Less than one-third of tested graduates in Minnesota met or exceeded college readiness benchmarks in all four tested subjects. Lower percentages of graduates from diverse racial and ethnic backgrounds met performance benchmarks relative to White graduates.

All Students American Indian Asian/Pacific Islander Black Hispanic White

100

90

80 70 70 60 60 55 56 51 48 50 50 47 44 42 39 37 37 40 34 31 30 30 30 30 26 24 25 21 23

Percentage Met Benchmark 17 16 18 20 13 14 9 8 10

0 English Mathematics Reading Science All Four Subjects

Source: ACT. (2018). The Condition of College & Career Readiness, 2018.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 13 Participation20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

A critical challenge for policymakers is to ensure that residents can access a college education compatible with their aspirationsANNUAL and abilities. Postsecondary participation rates provide a general indication of whether opportunities for higher education need to be improved for both younger and older adults. Geographical location, for example, has been identified as a potential barrier for prospective college students. A recent national analysis estimated that 11.2 million adults live more than a 60-minute drive from a public two- or four-year college.18 DirectREPORT enrollment. The direct enrollment rate is The enrollment gap by income is gauged by comparing defined as the percentage of high school graduates college enrollment rates among dependent 18- to who enroll to in a postsecondarythe Member institution during the States24-year-old residents by the family income quartiles of fall immediately following high school completion.19 all households in the state. Low income is delineated by Postponed enrollment may lead to future obstacles to the bottom quartile, middle income by the second and degree completion, such as diminishing academic skills third quartiles, and high income by the top quartile.21 and knowledge as well as the adoption of competing Older adult enrollment. Participation among older adults roles and obligations (e.g., work, family). Research is defined as the rate of enrollment among adults aged has indicated that the odds of obtaining a bachelor’s 25 to 49 who have earned at least a high school diploma degree decrease when a student delays postsecondary or GED but have not yet earned an associate degree or enrollment after graduating from high school.20 higher. Traditional-age enrollment. Participation among traditional-age students is defined as the percentage of all 18- to 24-year-old adults in the state who are currently enrolled in college or have completed any college credit or credential. Enrollment rates are provided for racial/ethnic and family income groups.

14 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 11. Percentage 20162017 Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median of High School 100 Graduates Going 100 90 Directly to College 90 75 76 80 71 72 80 75 67 76 74 70 66 72 Approximately 67 64 63 70 66 64 64 72 percent of high school 60 ANNUAL 60 graduates in Minnesota 50 50 directly enrolled in 40 college, a rate that 40 30 exceeds the regional and 30 20 national levels. 20 REPORT Percentage Directly Enrolled 10 10 Source: Western Interstate 0 to the Member States Commission for Higher Education. 0 (2016). Knocking at the College 2014 2016 Door, 9th Ed. NCES IPEDS. (2014, 2016). Fall Enrollment File. Top 5 states (includes ties): NY, MA,, LA, CT, MS.

Figure 12a. Percentage of Persons Aged 18- Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median 24 who are Currently 100 95 Enrolled or Have 89 90 87 Completed Any 81 80 75 76 76 73 7172 College Credit by Race 6968 68 70 65 65 66 and Ethnicity 62 60 57 605760 60 57 525249 About 65 percent 50 of underrepresented 40 minorities in Minnesota 30 (ages 18-24) have Percentage Enrolled 20 gained access to college, 10 compared to 76 percent of * * Whites. 0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2019). American Community Survey One- Year Public Use Microdata Sample: 2018. Top 5 States: 2018. (includes ties): MA, NY, NJ, CT, RI, ND, VT, MN, CA. Note. The underrepresented minority category comprises American Indians, Blacks, and Hispanics. *Estimates are unavailable due to small sample sizes.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 15 Figure 12b. Percentage of Dependent Minnesota U.S. 18- to 24-Year-Old 100 Residents who are 90 Currently Enrolled 83 80 or Have Completed 80 Any College Credit by 70 Income 63 61 60 The rates of

college enrollment 50 44 42 among low- and middle- 40 income 18- to 24-year-old Percentage Enrolled residents in Minnesota are 30 considerably lower than 20 the enrollment rate for 18- to 24-year-old residents 10

from high-income 0 families. Low Income Middle Income High Income

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015). Current Population Survey. Five-year estimates.

Figure 13. Percentage of Persons Aged 25-49 Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median without an Associate 100 Degree or Higher who 90 are Currently Enrolled in College 80 70 Minnesota meets 60 the national level in 50 the proportion of older 40 residents enrolled in 30 college. Percentage Enrolled 20 8 8 8 10 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. (2011, 10 6 5 6 2019). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata 0 Sample: 2010, 2018. Top 5 States, 2010 2018 2018 (includes ties): CA, AK, UT, MD, MA.

16 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Completion20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

While many states have made significant gains in postsecondary enrollment, rates of degree completion across the nation remainANNUAL below expected levels. The failure to complete a degree program has negative consequences for both students and states. Since employers are more likely to demand an educational credential than a specific number of postsecondary credits, a premature departure from college can severely curb one’s prospects for future employment and earnings. For example, individuals who have attained a bachelor’s degree earn 14 to 26 percent more than those who have completed 16 years of schooling without graduating from college. 22 Similarly, individuals who have earned a certificateREPORT or associate degree tend to earn significantly more than those who enrolled but did not graduate, particularly in health-related and technical fields.23 In addition, when students fail to graduate, the state fails to optimize itsto investment the in higher Member education through lost institutional States appropriations and student grant aid as well as lost revenue from state income tax.24

Institutional graduation rates. Institutional graduation These indicators are provided for racial/ethnic groups rates are defined by the proportion of first-time, and family income groups. Performance by income is full-time students who graduate at their beginning estimated by comparing graduation rates among federal institution. Specifically, graduation rates at two-year Pell grant recipients and non-Pell recipients. In 2018-19, a colleges are measured by the proportion of first-time, dependent student from a family with a household size full-time certificate/degree-seeking students in the of four (two parents and two children) and an adjusted fall 2014 cohort who transferred or completed an gross income of $60,000 or less would be eligible for a associate degree or certificate at the first public two- Pell Grant.25 year college within three years. Graduation rates at Credential completion rates. Credential completion four-year institutions are defined by first-time, full-time, rates are defined by the proportion of first-time, bachelor’s degree- seeking students in the fall 2011 certificate/degree-seeking students in the fall 2012 cohort who completed a bachelor’s degree at the first cohort who completed a certificate or degree within six four-year institution within six years (without accounting years at the first institution or elsewhere. The credential for transfer to another institution). completion rate accounts for both part- and full-time students.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 17 Figure 14. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Degree/Certificate-Seeking Students who Transferred or Graduated within Three Years at First Public Two-Year Institution and Graduated within Six Years at First Four-Year Institution by Race and Ethnicity

The graduation rates of American Indians, Asian/Pacific Islanders, Blacks, and Hispanics in Minnesota were lower than the graduation rates of Whites across all types of institutions.

100 90 80 74 68 66 70 62 64 59 58 60 55 47 50 44 47 45 38 40 34

Graduation Rate Graduation 30 25 20 10 0 Black Black Black White White White Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic American Indian American Indian American American Indian American Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Public 2-Year Institutions Public 4-Year Institutions Private Not-for-Profit 4- Year Institutions

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2017). Graduation Rate.

18 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 15. Percentage of First-Time, Full-Time, Degree/Certificate-Seeking Students who Graduated within Three Years at First Public Two-Year Institution and Graduated within Six Years at First Four-Year Institution by Pell Grant Recipient Status

The graduation rates of low-income students (i.e., Pell Grant recipients) in Minnesota lag behind the graduation rates of higher-income students at both two- and four-year institutions.

Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median

100 90 81 77 80 80 74 75 68 69 68 66 70 63 62 60 54 53 53 49 49 50 45 38 40 32 33 30 30 26 22

Graduation Rate Graduation 21 20 10 0 Pell Recipients Non-Pell Pell Recipients Non-Pell Pell Recipients Non-Pell Recipients Recipients Recipients Public 2-Year Institutions Public 4-Year Institutions Private Not-for-Profit 4-Year Institutions

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2017). Graduation Rate. Top 5 States, 2017 Public two-year: (Pell recipients: AK, SD, WY, ND, KS ) (Non-Pell recipients: AK, SD, ND, WI, MS) Public four-year: (Pell recipients: IA, CA, NH, WA, FL) (Non-Pell recipients: DE, VA, IA, CA, NJ) Private not-for-profit four-year: (Pell recipients: MA, RI, CA, OR, PA) (Non-Pell recipients: MA, ME, CA, RI, CT).

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 19 Figure 16. Percentage of First-Time, Certificate/Degree-Seeking Students who Completed a Credential within Six Years at Any Institution: Full- vs. Part-Time Students

A higher percentage of full-time students complete a credential within six years than do part-time students across all types of institutions in Minnesota.

Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median

100 91 92 91 91 88 88 90 85 84 80 75 69 66 70 61 60 51 50 36 37 40 34 34 33 34

Completion Rate Completion 30 24 19 19 22 21 20 10 0 2-Year Public 4-Year Public 4-Year Private 2-Year Public 4-Year Public 4-Year Private Not-for-Profit Not-for-Profit Part-Time Students Full-Time Students

Source: Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Wakhungu, P., Yuan, X., Nathan, A & Hwang, Y., A. (2019). Completing college: A state-level view of student attainment rates (Signature Report No. 16a). Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse. Top 5 States: Part-time students: (Two-year public: GA, WI, MN, KY, NH) (Four-year public: NJ, MI, MT, VA, CA) (Four-year private not-for-profit: OR, MD, NJ, IL, ME), Full-time students: (Two-year public: MI, SD, ND, IL, FL) (Four-year public: IA, MD, NH, MN, VA) (Four-year private not-for-profit: RI, WA, OR, MD, PA). *Estimates are not available for all institution types.

20 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Affordability20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

Over the past few decades, college tuition and fees have increased at more than four times the rate of consumer prices, partlyANNUAL in response to reductions in state and local funding. These increases in tuition have occurred while the incomes of many low- and middle-income families have stagnated or declined. This is potentially problematic since a higher net price of college has been associated with lower rates of college enrollment and completion, particularly among students from low-income families.26 Ability toREPORT pay. The ability to pay for college is measured Student loan debt. Student loan debt is measured by by the percentage of family income needed to pay the the percentage of bachelor’s degree recipients with net price toof full-time the enrollment Member at public two- and four- studentStates loan debt and the average student loan debt year institutions. The average net price is calculated as among bachelor’s degree recipients with student loans the total cost of attendance (tuition and fees, books, at public four-year institutions (excluding credit card supplies, and room and board) minus the average debt or borrowing from family members).27 institutional, local, state, and federal grant aid. In order to assess the degree of affordability for students of different income levels, this indicator is presented for families with median income ($89,694 in 2017) and low income, which is defined as an income equal to the federal poverty level for a family of four ($24,600 in 2017). The indicator is also presented by the median income for families in each racial and ethnic group.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 21 Figure 17a. Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Enrollment at Public Two-Year Institutions

Two-year college attendance in Minnesota for students from median-income families requires 15 percent of family income, compared to 38 percent of income for students from low-income families.

Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median

100

90

80

70

60

50 44 40 40 38 31 30 30 29 30 28 28 Percentage of IncomeNeeded 20 21 20 18 20 16 17 15 15 14 15 15 14 12 13 12 10

0 2008-09 2015-16 2016-17 2008-09 2015-16 2016-17 Low Income Median Income

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2009, 2016, 2017). Net price. U.S. Census Bureau. (2010, 2017, 2018). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample: 2009, 2016, 2017. Top 5 States, 2016-17 (includes ties): Low-Income Students: MS, GA, KY, IL, MI, RI, WY, AL, WA, AL, WA; Median income students: CT, WY, GA., MD, MI, VA, IL, KY, MA, MO, NE, NJ, AL, CA, DE, MS, NC, OR, RI, TN, TX, UT.

22 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 17b. Percentage of Family Income Needed to Pay for Full-Time Enrollment at Public Four-Year Institutions

Four-year college attendance in Minnesota for students from median-income families requires 20 percent of family income, compared to 37 percent of income for students from low-income families.

Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median

100

90

80

70

60

50 44 43 43 42 40 39 40 40 37 34 32 32 30 26 Percentage of IncomeNeeded 23 22 21 21 22 22 22 19 20 20 20 20 17

10

0 2008-09 2015-16 2016-17 2008-09 2015-16 2016-17 Low Income Median Income

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2009, 2016, 2017). Net price. U.S. Census Bureau. (2010, 2017, 2018). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample: 2009, 2016, 2017. Top 5 States, 2016-17 (includes ties): Low-Income Students: IN, NY, WA, CA, AZ, NC; Median income students: ND, IN, UT, WY, HI, IA, ME, NY, AK, DE, MA, MN, MO, NE, AZ, CT, KS, MD, MI, MT, NC, TX.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 23 Figure 17c. Percentage of Family Income Asian/Pacific Islander Black Hispanic White Underrepresented Minority Needed to Pay for 100 Full-Time Enrollment at Public Two- and 90 Four-Year Institutions 80 by Race and Ethnicity 70

College 60 attendance in Minnesota 50 requires a greater share of family income 40 for underrepresented 30 25 26 25 25 27 26 22 students than for White 17 18

Percentage of IncomeNeeded 20 14 students. 10

0 Two-Year Institutions Four-Year Institutions

Source: NCES IPEDS. (2017). Net price. U.S. Census Bureau. (2018). American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample: 2017. Note: The underrepresented minority category consists of American Indians, Blacks, and Hispanics. Estimates for some groups are unavailable due to small sample sizes.

Figure 18a. Percentage of Public Four-Year Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median College Graduates 100 with Student Loan Debt 90 80 69 69 66 The percentage of 70 64 63 60 58 59 57 public four-year college 60 47 graduates with student 50 46 45 loan debt in Minnesota is 40 above the regional and 30

national levels. Percentage with Debt 20 Source: Institute for College Access 10 and Success. College InSight database. Top 5 States, 2017-18 0 (includes ties): AK, UT, HI, WA, WY, 2011-12 2014-15 2017-18 FL, LA.

24 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 18b. Average Student Loan Debt Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median Among Public $35,000

Four-Year College $32,765 $31,123

$30,000 $30,161 $29,569 Graduates with Loans $29,564 $28,981 $28,044 $27,777 $26,771 The average $25,000 $21,193 amount of loans held by $20,000 $21,102 $19,758 public four-year college graduates with student $15,000 Average Debt loan debt in Minnesota is $10,000 above the national and regional levels. $5,000

Source: Institute for College Access $0 and Success. College InSight 2011-12 2014-15 2017-18 database. Top 5 States, 2017-18: CA, UT, WA, NM, FL. Note: College graduates without debt are omitted from calculation. Estimates have been adjusted for inflation.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 25 Finance20162017

ABOUT THESE METRICS

Substantial financial investments are required to create and sustain a P-20 educational system that meets state needs for economicANNUAL and social development. Altogether states allocated 10 percent of their budgets to higher education in 2018,28 including general operating expenses (78 percent); research, agricultural extension, and medical education (10 percent); and student financial aid (11 percent).29 Various factors influence funding for education within any particular state, including the tax base and structure, enrollment, expenditures for other public services, and economic conditions. Notably, state funding for higher education fell significantly following two major recessions (the tech bust inREPORT the early 2000s and the Great Recession in 2007-2009), but the ensuing economic recoveries did not result in reinvestment in higher education at pre-recession levels.30 States also differ in the strategies used to ensure that postsecondary to educationthe remains Member affordable. Some concentrate States funds into direct institutional appropriations, while others may focus more on need-based student aid.

Educational Appropriations. State and local Institutional funding relative to expenditures. State educational appropriations for higher education include and local appropriations are examined for public two- funds used for general public operations and public and four-year institutions in relation to educational student financial aid. These appropriations exclude expenditures, which reflect the total amount spent on spending for research, agriculture-related programs, and instruction, student services, and academic support. medical education, as well as support for independent State appropriations may influence the effectiveness and institutions or students attending them.31 competitiveness of institutions as well as tuition rates.33

State funding effort. The state’s overall effort to fund Need-based aid funding. State funding for grant aid higher education is portrayed as state fiscal support for based on financial need (relative to solely merit or other higher education per $1,000 of personal income.32 This criteria) is measured by the amount of need-based is one measure for assessing the level of funding for grant aid per FTE student. The receipt of grant aid has higher education relative to available resources. State been linked with higher rates of college enrollment and fiscal support consists of state tax appropriations, local degree completion.34 tax support, additional non-tax funds such as lottery Need-based aid commitment. The state’s commitment revenue that support higher education, and funds to providing need-based aid is measured by (a) need- appropriated to other state entities for specific higher based aid as a percent of total grant aid allocations and education expenditures or benefits. State and local (b) total state need-based aid relative to Pell grant aid. A appropriations in this indicator are used for general state’s total Pell grant allocation reflects the magnitude operations, agriculture-related programs, public student of financial need among college students. aid, medical education, and support for independent institutions or students attending them.

State and student cost share. The relative share of the cost of higher education is represented by comparing educational appropriations and net tuition revenue as a percent of total educational revenue for public postsecondary institutions, including four-year, two-year, and less-than two-year institutions.

26 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 19. State and 20162017 Local Educational Minnesota Midwest U.S. Appropriations for $12,000 Higher Education per $10,229 FTE Student $10,000 $9,895 $9,429 $8,481 $8,821 $9,765 State and local $7,650 $7,853 $8,000 $8,671 $7,800 $7,360 ANNUAL $7,463 funding for higher $7,601 $7,363 education in Minnesota $6,000 $7,177 $6,914 $6,843 $6,103 has increased over the past few years. $4,000 REPORT Source: SHEEO. (2019). State higher $2,000

education finance: FY 18. Estimates Student FTE per Appropriations have been adjusted for inflation. to the Member States $0 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2018

Figure 20. State Fiscal Support for Higher Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median Education per $1,000 of Personal Income $14.00 $13.90 $12.46 Funding per $12.00 $11.12 $10.49 $10.63 $1,000 of personal income $10.00 in Minnesota was below $9.14 $8.50 $7.76 the regional and national $8.00 $8.23 $6.78 $6.66 $7.38 levels in 2017. $6.41 $6.00 $6.34 $6.13 $5.96 $5.79 Source: SHEEO. (2019). State higher $5.24 $5.25 education finance: FY 18. Estimates $4.00 $5.09 have been adjusted for inflation. Top 5 States, 2017: WY, NM, ND, MS, Funding per $1,000 of Income $2.00 NE. $0.00 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 27 Figure 21. State and Local Educational Appropriations and Net Tuition Revenue as a Percentage of Total Educational Revenue for Public Postsecondary Institutions (per FTE Student)

The student’s share of the cost of enrollment currently exceeds the state’s share, as net tuition revenue constitutes a relatively larger proportion of revenue among public colleges and universities in Minnesota.

100

90

80 74 72 71 72 73 71 69 70 70 70 71 70

62 62 62 59 60 58 58 58 56 56 56 55 56 55 55 55

50 53 47 45 44 45 44 45 44 45 40 42 42 44 42 41 38 38 38

30 31 30 30 30 29 29 Percentage of Total Educational Revenue Educational Total of Percentage 28 29 28 26 27 20

10

0

Minnesota Net Tuition Revenue Minnesota Educational Appropriations U.S. Educational Appropriations

Source: SHEEO. (2019). State higher education finance: FY 18. Estimates have been adjusted for inflation.

28 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 22a. State and Local Appropriations Relative to Total Educational Expenditures per FTE Student at Public Doctoral Universities

State and local appropriations in Minnesota constitute 42 percent of educational expenditures at public doctoral universities, which is above the national level of 40 percent.

State and Local Appropriations per FTE Student Educational Expenditures per FTE Student

$3,208 Illinois $28,655

$6,828 Indiana $21,263

$7,536 Iowa $19,231

$8,436 Kansas $18,559

$5,803 Michigan $21,407

$11,517 Minnesota $27,411

$6,713 Missouri $16,980

$9,868 Nebraska $14,658

$9,057 North Dakota $19,837

$5,745 Ohio $17,739

$6,861 South Dakota $14,747

$7,662 Wisconsin $20,014

$7,890 U.S $19,583

Appropriations as Percentage of Expenditures IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S 11% 32% 39% 45% 27% 42% 40% 67% 46% 32% 47% 38% 40%

NCES IPEDS. (2017). Finance. 12-Month Enrollment.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 29 Figure 22b. State and Local Appropriations Relative to Total Educational Expenditures per FTE Student at Public Master’s Universities

At Minnesota master’s universities, state and local appropriations reflect 41 percent of educational expenditures, which is below the national level of 46 percent.

State and Local Appropriations per FTE Student Educational Expenditures per FTE Student

$3,279 Illinois $20,223

$5,417 Indiana $10,498

$9,632 Iowa $13,725

$5,133 Kansas $10,339

$3,910 Michigan $12,707

$4,901 Minnesota $11,860

$4,981 Missouri $11,243

$7,406 Nebraska $11,603

$8,376 North Dakota $12,074

$3,954 Ohio $10,436

$4,887 South Dakota $12,360

$2,613 Wisconsin $11,336

$5,751 U.S $12,541

Appropriations as Percentage of Expenditures IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S 16% 52% 70% 50% 31% 41% 44% 64% 69% 38% 40% 23% 46%

NCES IPEDS. (2017). Finance. 12-Month Enrollment.

30 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 22c. State and Local Appropriations Relative to Total Educational Expenditures per FTE Student at Public Associate’s Colleges

At Minnesota two-year colleges, state and local appropriations are equivalent to 49 percent of educational expenditures, which is below the national level of 73 percent.

State and Local Appropriations per FTE Student Educational Expenditures per FTE Student

$7,590 Illinois $8,908

$4,680 Indiana $6,546

$6,609 Iowa $8,875

$7,672 Kansas $8,324

$7,696 Michigan $10,643

$5,016 Minnesota $10,171

$5,155 Missouri $7,835

$10,231 Nebraska $10,416

$7,015 North Dakota $12,103

$5,670 Ohio $8,660

$2,779 South Dakota $8,851

$14,705 Wisconsin $16,836

$6,207 U.S. $8,526

Appropriations as Percentage of Expenditures IL IN IA KS MI MN MO NE ND OH SD WI U.S 85% 71% 74% 92% 72% 49% 66% 98% 58% 65% 31% 87% 73%

NCES IPEDS. (2017). Finance. 12-Month Enrollment.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 31 Figure 23. State Need-Based Grant Aid per FTE Undergraduate Student

State need-based grant aid in Minnesota increased over the past decade and was above the regional and national levels in 2016-17.

Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median $1,400

$1,176 $1,200

$1,000 $951 $868

$800 $704 $624 $600 $483 $416 $372 $400 Aid per FTE Undergraduate FTE per Aid

$200

$0 2003-04 2016-17

Source: National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2005). 35th annual survey report on state-sponsored student financial aid for 2003- 04 academic year. National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2018). 48th annual survey report on state-sponsored student financial aid for 2016-17 academic year. The 2004 estimates have been adjusted for inflation. Top 5 States, 2016-17: NJ, WA, CA, IA, NY.

32 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA Figure 24a. Percentage of State Grant Aid Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States Median 100 100 99 99 Defined as Need- 100 Based 92 90 86 Minnesota 80 74 77 allocates 99 percent of 70 Based - its grant aid based on 60 financial need (rather 50 than solely merit or other 40 criteria). 30

Percentage Need 20 10 0 2003-04 2016-17

Source: National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2005). 35th annual survey report on state- sponsored student financial aid for 2003-04 academic year. National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2018). 48th annual survey report on state-sponsored student financial aid for 2016-17 academic year. The 2004 estimates have been adjusted for inflation. Top 5 States, 2016-17 (includes ties): AZ, HI, KS, ME, OR, RI, TX, CA, IL, VT, PA, MN, CT, MD, MI, NJ, ID, IN, NC, WI, MA, WA, NY.

Figure 24b. Total State Need-Based Grant Aid Total State Need-Based Aid Dollars Total Pell Grant Dollars Compared to Federal $600 Pell Grant Aid $492 (in Millions) $500 $462

$380 Regionally and $400 $337 $329 nationally, state need- $300 based aid dollars are $194 about three times less $200 $164 than total Pell dollars. $112 $100 In contrast, the amount Total Grant Aid (in Millions) of state need-based aid $0 dollars in Minnesota Minnesota Midwest U.S. Top 5 States is about 1.7 times less Median than the total amount of federal Pell Grant dollars, Source: National Association of State Student Grant and Aid Programs (2018). 48th annual survey report on state- sponsored student financial aid for 2016-17 academic year. NCES IPEDS. (2017). Student financial aid. Top 5 States: which places Minnesota WA, NJ, IN, CA, MN. among the top five states in the nation.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 33 Endnotes

1 The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. (2013). Recovery: Job growth and education requirements through 2020. 2 Job categories were defined by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce: Managerial and Professional (e.g., management, business operations, finance, and legal); STEM (e.g., computer and mathematical science, architects and technicians, engineers and technicians, life and physical scientists); Social Sciences (psychologists, market research analysts, urban planners, survey researchers, economists, anthropologists, archeologists, sociologists, political scientists, historians, geographers); Community Service and Arts (e.g., social services, arts, design, sports, entertainment, media); Education; Healthcare (professionals and support); Food and Personal Services (e.g., protective services, food preparation and serving, personal care); Sales and Office Support; and Blue Collar (e.g., farming, fishing and forestry, construction and extraction, installation, maintenance and equipment repair, production, transportation and material moving). The Georgetown Center describes “Some College, No Degree” as an amorphous category in which some people with high school diplomas self-report their highest level of education in the “Some College” category. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “Some College, No Degree” as the “achievement of a high school diploma or equivalent plus the completion of one or more postsecondary courses that did not result in a degree or award.” It is generally accepted that this category includes completion of 1- and 2-year certificates. 3 Carnevale, A.P., Strohl, J., Cheah, B., and Ridley, N. (2017). Good Jobs that Pay Without a BA. Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. 4 Lumina Foundation. (2019). States with higher education attainment goals. Retrieved from https://www.schev.edu/ docs/default-source/about-section/council-files/2019-council-meetings/june-council-retreat/attainment_goal_state- rundown_021519.pdf 5 Hermida , A. and Fergus, M. (2019). Educating for the Future: 2019 Update. Minnesota Office of Higher Education. Retrieved from https://www.ohe.state.mn.us/pdf/EducatingfortheFuture2019_final.pdf 6 Analyses that account for educational certificates increase the postsecondary attainment rate based only on associate degree or higher attainment by four to ten percentage points in Minnesota, depending on the racial and ethnic group. See Hermida, A. and Fergus, M. (2019). Educating for the Future: 2019 Update. Minnesota Office of Higher Education. Retrieved from https://www.ohe.state.mn.us/pdf/EducatingfortheFuture2019_final.pdf 7 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems. (2017). Calculating the economic value of increasing college credentials by 2025. 8 College Board. (2016). Education pays 2016. Retrieved from https://research.collegeboard.org/trends/education-pays 9 Rosenbaum, J. (2012). Degrees of health disparities: Health status disparities between young adults with high school diplomas, sub-baccalaureate degrees, and baccalaureate degrees. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology, 12(2-3), 156-168. 10 MHEC. (2019). MHEC interactive dashboard: Benefits.Retrieved from https://www.mhec.org/research/mhec-interactive- dashboard 11 Adelman, C. (2006). The toolbox revisited: Paths to degree completion from high school through college. Retrieved from http://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/research/pubs/toolboxrevisit/toolbox.pdf 12 Pianta, R. C., Barnett, W. S., Burchinal, M., & Thornburg, K. R. (2009). The effects of preschool education: What we know, how public policy is or is not aligned with the evidence base, and what we need to know. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 10(2), 49-88. 13 American College Testing. (2008). The forgotten middle. Retrieved from https://www.act.org/content/dam/act/ unsecured/documents/ForgottenMiddle.pdf 14 This report uses the four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate, which is defined as “the number of students who graduate in four years with a regular high school diploma divided by the number of students who form the adjusted cohort for the graduating class. From the beginning of 9th grade (or the earliest high school grade), students who are entering that grade for the first time form a cohort that is “adjusted” by adding any students who subsequently transfer into the cohort and subtracting any students who subsequently transfer out, emigrate to another country, or die” (U.S. Department of Education, 2012). Retrieved from http://eddataexpress.ed.gov/dataelementoverlay.cfm/deid/127/states/ XX/ 15 ACT. (2018). The Condition of College & Career Readiness 2018. 16 See note 15.

34 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 17 The percentage of high school graduates taking the ACT is calculated from the actual number of ACT takers and the projected number of high school graduates. 18 Myers, B. (2019). Who lives in education deserts? Retrieved from https://www.chronicle.com/interactives/education- deserts 19 The number of graduates from private high schools in 2014 was estimated as the average of 2011 graduates and the projected number of graduates estimated by WICHE. The Private School Universe Survey does not provide data beyond 2011. 20 Bozick, R., & DeLuca, S. (2005). Better late than never? Delayed enrollment in the high school to college transition. Social Forces, 84(1), 527-550. 21 Dependent is defined as age less than 25, not married with spouse present, with the household role of sibling, child, step child, family other, foster child or grandchild. The sample excludes individuals currently enrolled in high school but includes individuals without a high school diploma or certificate who are not currently enrolled in high school. Family income quartiles are based on all households in the state: low income is delineated by the bottom quartile; middle income is delineated by the middle quartiles; and high income is delineated by the top quartile. College enrollment is defined as current postsecondary enrollment or any level of college attainment, including some college or a specific credential. Sample sizes are too small to produce single-year estimates. 22 Bitzan, J. D. (2009). Do sheepskin effects help explain racial earnings differences? Economics of Education Review, 28(6), 759-766. Jaeger, D. A., & Page, M. E. (1996). Degrees matter: New evidence on sheepskin effects in the returns to education. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(4), 733-740. 23 Liu, V. Y., Belfid, C. R., & Trimble, M. J. (2015). The medium-term labor market returns to community college awards: Evidence from North Carolina. Economics of Education Review, 44, 42-55. Xu, D., & Trimble, M. (2016). What about certificates? Evidence on the labor market returns to nondegree community college awards in two states.Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 38(2), 272-292. Bahr, P. R., Dynarski, S., Jacob, B., Kreisman, D., Sosa, A., & Wiederspan, M. (2015). Labor Market Returns to Community College Awards: Evidence from Michigan. A CAPSEE Working Paper. Center for Analysis of Postsecondary Education and Employment. Jepsen, C., Troske, K., & Coomes, P. (2014). The labor-market returns to community college degrees, diplomas, and certificates.Journal of Labor Economics, 32(1), 95-121. 24 Schneider, M., & Yin, Lu. (2011). The high cost of low graduation rates: How much does dropping out of college really cost? Retrieved from www.air.org/sites/default/files/downloads/report/AIR_High_Cost_of_Low_Graduation_Aug2011_0. pdf 25 Minnesota Office of Higher Education. (2018). 018-20192 Estimated EFC, Federal Pell Grant and MN State Grant by Income, Household Size and College Type – Dependent Student. The estimate assumes an expected family contribution of $3,630 based on federal methodology for a dependent student using 2016 parental adjusted gross income. 26 Hossler, D., Ziskin, M., Gross, J. P., Kim, S., & Cekic, O. (2009). Student aid and its role in encouraging persistence. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and research (pp. 389-425). Netherlands: Springer Netherlands. Bowen, W. G., Chingos, M. M., & McPherson, M. S. (2009). Crossing the filine: Completing college at America’s public universities. Princeton, NY: Princeton University Press. Heller, D. E. (Ed.). (2001). The effects of tuition prices and financial aid on enrollment in higher education: California and the nation. Rancho Cordova, CA: EdFund. MHEC (2014). Campus- based practices for promoting student success: Financial aid. Retrieved from http://www.mhec.org/research. 27The Institute for College Access and Success. (2019). Student debt and the class of 2018. Retrieved from https://ticas. org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/classof2018.pdf. The debt estimates reflect the average per-undergraduate borrower cumulative principal from institutional, state, federal, and private loans. The debt estimates do not take into account credit card debt and family loans, thereby underestimating the overall debt burden incurred through postsecondary education. 28 NASBO. (2018). 2018 state expenditure report: Fiscal years: 2016-2018. Retrieved from https://www.nasbo.org/mainsite/ reports-data/state-expenditure-report 29 State Higher Education Executive Officers. (2019). State higher education finance. Retrieved fromhttps://sheeo.org/ project/state-higher-education-finance/ Expenditure figures do not include capital or debt service 30 MHEC. (2018). Evaluating state funding effort for higher education. Retrieved from https://www.mhec.org/sites/ default/files/resources/mhec_affordability_series6.pdf 31 State Higher Education Executive Officers. (2019). State higher education finance. Retrieved fromhttps://sheeo.org/ project/state-higher-education-finance/ 32 See note 31. 33 Mumper, M., & Freeman, M. L. (2005). The causes and consequences of public college tuition inflation. In J.C. Smart (Ed.), Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research, Vol. XX, 307–361. Norwell, MA: Springer. 34 See note 26.

2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA 35 MIDWESTERN HIGHER EDUCATION COMPACT 105 Fifth Avenue South, Suite 450 Minneapolis, MN 55401 PHONE: (612) 677-2777 FAX: 612-767-3353 E-MAIL: [email protected]

VISIT MHEC’S WEBSITE AT: WWW.MHEC.ORG

36 2019 Higher Education in Focus: MINNESOTA