KAYA IDENTITY ANALYSIS OF DECARBONIZATION OF THE NY ECONOMY REQUIRED FOR CLIMATE ACTION PLAN GOAL OF 40% REDUCTION BY 2030

Roger Caiazza Not representing EEANY DISCLAIMERS

 The following analysis does not reflect the position of any of my employers either present or past nor do they reflect the position of Environmental Energy Alliance of New York member companies.  The analysis is based on the work of Dr. Roger A. Pielke, Jr. documented in The Climate Fix: What scientists and politicians won’t tell you about global warming. Basic Books, 276 pp., ISBN 978- 0-465-02052-2.  The presentation is based on Pielke’s presentation to Colorado Air Quality Control Commission 2/18/10 NEW YORK CLIMATE ACTION PLAN

 Governor Paterson signed Executive Order 24 on August 6, 2009, setting a goal to reduce New York's emissions by 80 percent below levels emitted in year 1990 by year 2050.  Interim Report describes both mitigation and adaptation policy options and summarizes the costs and benefits of adopting these policies.  This analysis takes an independent look at the interim goal of a 40% reduction by 2030. DR. PIELKE’S POSITION

 He is a strong advocate for both mitigation and adaptation policies

 The continuing increase in atmospheric concentrations of could pose large risks, as described by the IPCC

 Stabilizing concentrations at low levels cannot succeed if we underestimate the challenge (and we have)

 Mitigation action will not result from the elimination of all scientific uncertainty

 The poisonous politics of the climate debate serves to limit a broader discussion of options

 Ultimately, technological innovation makes political action easier, not vice versa WHERE DO NY EMISSIONS COME FROM?

Factor Parameter Relationship People P Economic Activity GSP per capita GSP/P Energy Use Energy intensity of TE/GSP economy Carbon Emissions Carbon intensity of C/TE energy GSP TE C Carbon emissions = C = P * ------* ----- * ----- P GSP TE

The “Kaya Identity” WHAT TOOLS DO WE HAVE TO REDUCE EMISSIONS ?

Factor Lever Policy Approach P Population Less people Population Management GSP/P GSP per capita Smaller economy Limit generation of wealth TE/GSP Energy Increase Do same or more with less Intensity efficiency energy C/TE Carbon Switch energy Generate energy with less Intensity sources emissions DECARBONIZATION DEFINED DECARBONIZATION: CO2 PER $1,000 GSP Decarbonization of the economy is reflected in a decrease in the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to gross state product ……

New York Current Baseline (average 2004 – 2008) 206.7 million metric tons of CO2 Gross State Product $904.552 (Million of 2000 $) 0.23 tonnes CO2 per $1,000 GSP

….. In a manner consistent with stabilization targets FIRST, SOME GOOD NEWS NOW SOME BAD NEWS…. BOTTOM UP ANALYSIS

 Project population and economic growth then project technological change needed to meet target  NY projections are flat to 2030  The average annual Per Capita New York Gross State Product growth rate from 1990 to 2008 was 2.02%, for the ten-year period 1999 to 2008 was 2.91% and for the last five years, 2004 to 2008, was 3.36%  Economic activity is expected to increase CO2 emissions from the baseline of 206.7 to 339.1 million metric tons in 2030.  In order to meet target of 132 million tonnes the decarbonization rate has to be 1.7% with no growth or with 2% growth 2.9% TOP DOWN ANALYSIS

 Combine projections of population and economic growth to determine per capita economic growth  Decarbonization rate needed for the economy to meet the Climate Action Plan goals can be calculated  Projected with six levels of growth between 0.5% and 3%  Annual average decarbonization rates necessary to meet 2030 goal ranges from 2.1% to 3.2%.  Carbon intensity of the New York economy is going to have to be reduced between 40 and 65% in the next 20 years. IMPLIED DECARBONIZATION OF THE NEW YORK STATE ECONOMY FOR 40% REDUCTION IN EMISSIONS FROM 1990 LEVELS BY 2030 PIELKE ON DECARBONIZATION RATES How fast can decarbonization occur? Honest answer is “no one knows” Historical rates of 1-2% per year have occurred in developed countries For short periods rates >2% have occurred Achieving NY Climate Action Plan 40% reduction by 2030 with no growth requires decarbonization rate of just under 2% Achieving NY Climate Action Plan 40% reduction by 2030 with 2% growth requires decarbonization rate of around 3% DECARBONIZATION SCENARIOS

 Ramp up nuclear or wind to replace CO2 emitting fuels  Synapse Energy “Beyond Business as Usual: Investigating a Future without Coal and Nuclear Power in the US” cited by environmentalist commenters  Reduce mobile source emissions NREL EWITS

 National Renewable Energy Laboratory  Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study.

 http://www.nrel.gov/wind/systemsintegration/ewits.html.  It was initiated in 2008 to examine the operational impact of up to 20-30% energy penetration of wind on the power system in the Eastern Interconnect of the United States  A precursor to EWITS known as the Eastern Wind Data Study identified more than 700 GW of potential future wind plant sites for the eastern United States. NYS CARBON FREE ENERGY FACILITIES

Facility Description 2009 Capacity Capacity Energy (GWh) Factor (GWh) Maple 140 1.65MW 527.9 2,024 26.1% Ridge I Turbines Wind Farm NREL 66 NY On- 33,137 26.1% EWITS Shore Sites Nine Mile 2 Nuclear 9,920 10,059 98.6% METHODOLOGY TO CALCULATE HOW MUCH CARBON FREE POWER IS NEEDED

 Because not all fuel is burned to generate electricity you need a conversion factor  On average in 2004-2008, 216 TBtu of coal energy was burned to produce 20,996 GWh of electricity  Coal rate was 97.3 Gwhr/TBtu  In 2009, Nine Mile 2 produced 9,920 GWh so the equivalent energy needed was 9,920/97.3 or 102 Tbtu  Average total coal use 2004-2008 was 254.9 Tbtu  Therefore, 2.5 replacement Nine Mile 2 units (254.9/102) would be needed to replace energy WILD GUESS SCENARIO FUEL USE REDUCTION TO MEET 2030 GOAL

 2030 w/ 0.3% growth: 227.9 million tonnes  Goal 132 million tonnes

Source Energy CO2 227.9 (Tbtu) Coal 254.9 24.1 203.8 Residual 229.9 18.1 185.6 Distillate 477.1 34.9 150.7 Kerosene 13.5 1 149.8 EGU Gas 358.9 19 130.7 Total 1,334 97 HOW DO WE REPLACE 1,334 TBTU TO GET THE 97 MILLION TONNE REDUCTION?

Source Nine Mile 2 Maple Ridge 1 All NY EWITS Coal 2.5 47.0 0.75 Residual 2.4 44.6 0.71 Distillate 4.9 92.6 1.48 Kerosene 0.1 2.6 0.04 EGU Gas 3.8 72.0 1.15 Total 13.8 258.9 4.1 SYNAPSE NO COAL AND NO NUCLEAR ENERGY MIX IN 2050

 Energy efficiency reduces total energy used 7%  Retire all coal  Retire 72% of nuclear generation  Wind energy provides 31% of needs  Solar PV provides 6% of needs  Biomass provides 7% of needs  Reduce aviation CO2 by 34%  Reduce natural gas and automobile emissions to get to energy predicted by 7% reduction  95% reduction in all other petroleum PREDICTED 2050 – 53.6% OF GOAL

Synapse Transition Baseline CO2 Energy CO2 Energy mm tonnes (Tbtu) mm tonnes (Tbtu) Coal 0.0 0.0 24.1 254.9 Natural Gas 45.4 853.6 61.3 1,153.5 Distillate 1.7 23.9 34.9 477.1 Residual 0.9 11.5 18.1 229.9 Kerosene 0.0 0.7 1.0 13.5 LPG 0.1 1.4 1.8 28.8 Car Gas 38.3 540.0 51.0 720.0 Aviation 9.6 138.3 14.5 209.5 Hydro 264.0 264.0 Nuclear 126.9 453.1 Imports 229.0 229.5 Biofuels 267.2 160.6 Wind 1,209.2 Solar PV 234.0 Total 96.0 3,899.7 206.7 4,194.4 2050 GOAL REDUCTIONS NEEDED

Synapse Transition Baseline Bottom CO2 Energy CO2 Energy Up % mm tonnes (Tbtu) mm tonnes (Tbtu) Reduction Coal 0.0 0.0 24.1 254.9 100% Natural Gas 20.2 380.7 61.3 1,153.5 67% Distillate 1.7 23.9 34.9 477.1 95% Residual 0.9 11.5 18.1 229.9 95% Kerosene 0.0 0.7 1.0 13.5 95% LPG 0.1 1.4 1.8 28.8 95% Car Gas 16.8 237.6 51.0 720.0 67% Aviation 4.8 69.1 14.5 209.5 67% Hydro 264.0 264.0 Nuclear 126.9 453.1 72% Imports 229.0 229.5 Biofuels 267.2 160.6 Wind 1,209.2 Solar PV 234.0 Total 44.6 3,055.2 206.7 4,194.4

EE/RE Energy 3,900.8 PIELKE ON CURRENT POLICY OPTIONS

 The policy logic of targets and timetables is exactly backwards  CO2 Cap and Trade cannot succeed  Carbon tax alone cannot do the job  How do we deal with other “wicked problems”  Advancing human life spans  Increasing agricultural production  1.5 billion people without electricity CAN WE CHANGE THE NARRATIVE?

 From  We use too much energy  Fossil fuels are too cheap

 To  We need more energy  Fossil fuels are too expensive PIELKE’S RECOMMENDED ALTERNATIVE

 Focus policy on decarbonization of the economy (not simply emissions)  Efficiency gains  Expand carbon free energy  Innovation-focused investments  Air capture backstop  Adaptation