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The Information Revolution and International Stability: a Multi-Article Exploration of Computing, Cyber, and Incentives for Conflict

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The Information Revolution and International Stability: a Multi-Article Exploration of Computing, Cyber, and Incentives for Conflict The Information Revolution and International Stability: A Multi-Article Exploration of Computing, Cyber, and Incentives for Conflict by Jacquelyn Schneider B.A. in Economics-Political Science, May 2005, Columbia University M.A. in Political Science, May 2013, Arizona State University A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 21, 2017 Dissertation directed by Charles Glaser Professor of Political Science and International Affairs The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that Jacquelyn Schneider has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of January 27, 2017. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. The Information Revolution and International Stability: A Multi-Article Exploration of Computing, Cyber, and Incentives for Conflict Jacquelyn Schneider Dissertation Research Committee: Charles Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Dissertation Director Martha Finnemore, University Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member Caitlin Talmadge, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2017 by Jacquelyn Schneider All rights reserved iii Dedication The author wishes to dedicate this work to the most interesting man in the world—my husband. iv Acknowledgments I am extremely grateful for the support and advice I have received over the last five and a half years of this process that it took to get to this point. It has been two moves, two babies, and two graduate schools to get here and I truly could not have done it without this amazing group of people. In particular, I want to thank my chair, Charlie Glaser, not only for his comments on this dissertation, but for his unwavering support of my sometimes overly-committed and overly-enthusiastic forays into both policy and academic diversions. He allowed me to take opportunities, even when I perhaps wasn’t ready, and for that I am extraordinarily grateful. I know that quite often these were leaps of faith and it meant the world to me that he was willing to take them. I also found at GW a strong cadre of women that were inspirational not only for their academic accomplishments but also for their ability to balance family and professional life. I was lucky enough to have two of these women on my committee. Martha Finnemore was an enormously influential part of my committee and I am very grateful that she was willing to read through and provide guidance on my heavily security-focused pieces. Some of the best parts of these explorations were because of her advice and conversations. Caitlin Talmadge was a constant source of guidance over the last three years and her keen comments on all of my work as well as her forthright and caring advice on work-life made her a role model for me. Thank you to both these women for showing me that you can be rock stars at work and rock star Moms. Finally, I need to thank profusely Henry Farrell and Robert Jervis who graciously agreed to act as readers for this dissertation and who provided incredibly useful feedback to improve the piece. I found at GW a department full of inspirational colleagues and scholars who played a huge role in my intellectual development over the last three years. I first want to thank Kimberly Morgan who took a chance on a transfer student and made my transition to GW so seamless. I also want to thank the scholars at the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies v including Janne Nolan, Stephen Biddle, Elizabeth Saunders, Rachel Stein, and Alex Downes for their support both academically and personally. At ISCS I found a group of scholars that were challenging, insightful, and interested in building the next generation of security scholars. It was a place that I grew as a scholar and much of that was due to the fantastic group of colleagues I found at the Institute, including Alec Worsnop, Jane Vaynman, Sara Bjerg Moller, Bryce Loidolt, Andrew Bell, Ryan Baker, Daniel Jacobs, Michael Joseph, Meredith Blank, Frank Smith, Andy Leven, Joseph Torigian, Inwook Kim, Daniel Krcmaric, Olivier Henripen, and Tyson Belanger. I also want to thank faculty and colleagues at outside universities that were so instrumental in the development of me as a scholar and both directly and indirectly this dissertation. First, I want to thank Mikki Kittilson, Sheldon Simon, Carolyn Warner, and Reed Wood for their mentorship at ASU and the efforts that many of them took to help me transfer to GW. I also need to thank Stephen Walker who has been my biggest advocate over the last five years. He has cheered me on, commented on drafts of a series of papers, and written countless letters for me. He has inspired some of my best work and I am extraordinarily thankful that I have the honor to be in his scholarly lineage. Finally, I would be remiss if I did not thank the colleague and scholars who have been so instrumental to the evolution of my work on cyber including Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay, Joshua Rovner, Fiona Cunningham, Stacie Pettyjohn, Herb Lin, Rose McDermott, and Austin Long. As is likely obvious from the dissertation, I have been heavily influenced by the experiences and opportunities I have had through Cyber Command and the Naval War College. I want to thank Sean Keenan, Jen Silk, Paul Jacobs, Shannen Parker, John Zerr, James Vandevelde, Michael Warner, Emily Goldman, Bart Gray, and Guy Walsh at Cyber Command for their support. I also want to thank the Naval War College for not only giving me the opportunity to use the wargaming data, but for also shielding me from outside work so that I could finish the dissertation over the last six months. Big thanks go out to Andrew vi Winner, Hank Brightman, Peter Dombrowski, and Chris Demchak. I have saved for almost the very end my thank you to one of my biggest supporters and sources of inspiration—Julia Macdonald. I met Julia in 2012. I was in the early stages of my first pregnancy, attempting to hide my emerging baby bump while camping out in the Cornell dorms at SWAMOS. It turns out that SWAMOS would be a huge turning point in my life and that is because it introduced me to the best co-author and friend you could ever imagine. She has been an eternally positive and uplifting person in my academic life who is just as willing to read a draft as to promote my successes and watch my kids. She is my academic other half and I cannot wait for all the amazing research we are going to do together. Finally, I want to thank my amazing family who has supported me through this long rollercoaster journey. Huge thanks go out to my parents who gave me the drive and thirst for knowledge and to them, my in-laws, and my brother who have all stepped in to help Jeff and I raise these awesome kids. I could not have done it without you. And I absolutely could not have done this without my amazing husband, Jeff Schneider. He moved across the country (twice) so that I could follow my dreams. He has always believed in me and without his love and support I would never have been able to start or finish this journey. Thank you. vii Abstract of Dissertation The Information Revolution and International Stability: A Multi-Article Exploration of Computing, Cyber, and Incentives for Conflict Over the last twenty years, the digital technologies of the information revolution have fundamentally impacted the nature of modern warfare and introduced significant uncertainty about capabilities, intentions, and the limits of conflict. How do these digital advances and the explosion of cyber technologies on and off the battlefield impact international stability? Has the information revolution fundamentally altered crisis dynamics such that states are more likely to inadvertently or intentionally escalate crises to war? This dissertation utilizes a multi-article, multi-method format with case studies and experimental analysis to examine these questions. The first piece looks at military revolutions and international stability and argues that a capability/vulnerability paradox of military revolutions suggests de-stabilizing effects of the information revolution. The second article examines offense-defense in U.S. doctrine since the information revolution and finds that the information revolution technologies invested in by offensively minded doctrinaires has created a path-dependency for further offense dominance in the information revolution. Finally, the last piece analyzes data from six years of crisis wargaming to generalize U.S. decision-maker perceptions of escalation and cyber operations. Together, these pieces seek to solve fundamental policy questions about how cyberspace operations and technology may impact current and future crises and their potential for conflict eruption. viii Table of Contents Dedication ................................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................... v Abstract of Dissertation .......................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ x List of Tables ...........................................................................................................................
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