ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 24, No. 1 (GR)

Dec 2019

Greece political briefing: Greek politics in 2019 George N. Tzogopoulos

1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

+36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin

Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01

Greek politics in 2019

Following 4,5 years of (and Independent ) administration, saw a governmental change in 2019. The conservative won the national election of 5 July and became the new prime minister. While the first semester of the year was full with political tensions in view of the national election, the second was relatively calm. The government of New Democracy enjoyed a grace period and was not encountered with significant political challenges. The law allowing Greeks living abroad to vote was one of its successes and received broad political support.

2019 was an election year for Greece. All opinion polls were suggesting that the governing SYRIZA party would lose the national election to the main opposition New Democracy party. This happened in July indeed. The way until the national election was full with political tensions. The year started with the coalition government of SYRIZA-Independent Greek charting separate courses after 4,5 years of close cooperation. The main reason for the divorce was the opposition of the leader of and Defense Minister to the Prespes Agreement signed between Greece and North . When this Agreement came to the Greek Parliament for approval, Kammenos withdrew his support to the Greek government. But several MPs belonging to Independent Greeks did not follow the decision of their leader. They preferred to leave the party and support SYRIZA in order to keep their ministerial portfolios. This is how the SYRIZA government managed to remain in power.

(Former) Prime Minister showed great political skills to save the government. Knowing that his governmental partner Panos Kammenos would not support the coalition any longer, he decided to work together with some MPs. Examples include Tourism Minister Elena Kountoura and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Terens Quick. For its part, the New Democracy party realized that the Prespes Agreement caused significant governmental damage to SYRIZA and voted against it in Parliament by largely focusing on its flaws, mainly Greece’s concessions on the themes of ‘nationality’ and ‘language’. But after its victory in the national election of July, it is respecting the important deal paving the way for North Macedonia to enter NATO and the European Union. The tendency of Greek politicians to connect their stance on important issues to political interests is not rare in domestic politics.

1

In January 2019 Tsipras certainly gained political time. His subsequent dilemma was when to announce the national election, noting that New Democracy was enjoying the lead in all surveys. He had already said the national election would have taken place in the end of the four-year mandate of SYRIZA, in September or October. He finally decided to keep his word in spite of speculation that the national election might be organized on the same day with the and the local ones, in May. Proponents of this view were suggesting that the anger of Greek voters with SYRIZA could be shown in the European Parliament and local polls but not on the national one. Tsipras disagreed and believed that a small defeat of SYRIZA in the European Parliament and local elections of May could be overturned a few months later, in September or October. During his period he hoped that the continuing recovery and the positive impact of arrivals of tourists on the real economy could lead disenchanted voters to reconsider their May decision and vote for SYRIZA. His prognosis was incorrect. The May victory of New Democracy was impressive. It garnered 33.12 percent of the vote while SYRIZA 23.77 percent.

Being under heavy political pressure following the May defeat Tsipras decided to call an early election to take place in July instead of September of October. In a period of only a few weeks it was impossible for him and for SYRIZA to change the new dynamics in Greek politics. It was clear that the leader of New Democracy Kyriakos Mitsotakis would easily win the snap election benefiting by the momentum after the easy victory of his party in May. The result of the July 5th poll is telling. New Democracy garnered 39.85 percent of the vote and SYRIZA 31.53 percent. Whereas the percentage of SYRIZA was much higher in comparison to that of the European Parliament election, the main success of New Democracy was it managed to govern alone – without the need to collaborate with a smaller party such as the Movement of Change. So, the new structure of the Greek Parliament is as follows: New Democracy: 158 seats, SYRIZA: 86 seats, Movement for Change: 22 seats, Communist party: 15 seats, Greek Solution: 10 seats, DiEM25, 9 seats.

As significant development in Greek politics after the national election of July is that the party did not reach the threshold of 3 percent and did not enter parliament. Its performance was lower than the required percentage (2.93 percent). For the first time after the twin elections of May and June 2012 and the ones of January and September 2015 Golden Dawn failed thus to become elected. The main reason is that the status of the Greek economy was much better in 2019 in comparison to 2012 and 2015. Therefore, the desire of citizens to demonstrate their ire vis-à-vis mainstream political parties by supporting an extreme party was weaker. Also, the violent practices employed by Golden Dawn that had been largely exposed

2 in the national and international media discourse while the party lacked a leadership to persuade voters who belong to the far-right spectrum. In the national election of July some of them preferred to vote for the Greek Solutions party former by Kyriakos Velopoulos instead.

The new Greek cabinet appointed by Premier Mitsotakis is not particularly flexible as it includes 51 members. It also encompasses a few technocrats and non-New Democracy members and it is male dominated. Key portfolios were given to (Deputy Prime Minister), George Gerapetriris (State Minister), Akis Skertsos (Minister to the Prime Minister), (Minister of Finance), (Minister of Foreign Affairs), Nikos Panagiotopoulos (Minister of Defense), Michalis Chrysochoidis (Minister of Citizens’s Protection), (Minister of Development and Investments) and (Minister of Culture Sports). Mitsotakis abolished the Ministry of Migration and decided to re-establish it at the beginning of 2020 (the new minister is Notis Mitarachis) in response to the ongoing refugee crisis.

For many years during the economic crisis Greece lacked political stability. The victory of New Democracy in the July 2019 election will possibly put an end to concerns about political uncertainty in the country With 158 MPs New Democracy has a clear mandate to govern for four years, until July 2023. Although Greek politics remain unpredictable and unknown factors – for example the deterioration of bilateral relations with can cause significant political problems to a government – this is a significant advantage for Greece on its way to recovery. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis often reiterates the ‘political stability’ card in public remarks he makes and meetings with foreign leaders. International markets are gradually regaining confidence – despite usual delays in the implementation of reforms.

The second semester of 2019 was smooth for the Greek government of New Democracy. With the exception of tensions with Turkey, no particularly heated political debate took place. That is because a new government traditionally enjoys a grace period. Leader of the current main opposition SYRIZA Alexis Tsipras decided to keep a low profile. In the immediate aftermath of the defeat of his party in three different elections it would have been unwise from his side to challenge Premier Mitsotakis and New Democracy. His main priority was to start the re-organization of his party in order to win the next national election. The 31.53 percent SYRIZA garnered in the July election was particularly high for the Tsipras leadership in the party to be challenged. This does not mean other voices are not heard or disagreements do not occur. But it is clear that the former Prime Minister will hold the key for the reboot of SYRIZA in order for it to constitute a reliable pillar of the center-left.

3

In a period of calmness in domestic politics, the parliament voted in December 2019 a new law that allows the Greek diaspora to exercise their voting rights from their place of residence. For Greeks living abroad to qualify to vote, they need to have Greek tax identification numbers, have filed a tax declaration in the current of previous tax year and have lived in Greece for two years over a 35 year period. The priority of the Greek government was to obtain a broad consensus and it therefore had to accept proposals of other parties in drafting the legislation and naturally presenting a draft of relatively limited scope. 288 MPs finally approved the new law that Mitsotakis illustrated as ‘historic’.

Conclusion

Alexis Tsipras made a significant political mistake when he decided for the 2019 national election not to take place on the same day with the European parliament and the local elections in May. The victory of New Democracy was then impressive forcing him to call a snap poll for July. New Democracy easily won again and with 158 MPs it is able to govern for the next four years alone. While challenges for the new government were limited in the second semester of 2019, its mission in 2020 will be more difficult. This is also the case for SYRIZA which attempts to correct previous mistakes and build a new center-left profile.

4