To Succeed in His Second Term, Cameron Must Solve Two Big Problems: Europe and Scotland Andrew Macdougall

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British Prime Minister David Cameron outside 10 Downing Street following his majority victory in the May 7 election. The Prime Minister’s Ofﬁce, Flickr photo To Succeed in His Second Term, Cameron Must Solve Two Big Problems: Europe and Scotland Andrew MacDougall

In the 1972 campaign classic, “The Candidate”, Robert he passage of time has done lit- Redford’s unexpectedly victorious senatorial candidate tle to dampen the shock of the T United Kingdom’s May 7 elec- asks his campaign manager the perfect post-upset question result. Despite months of polling tion: “What do we do now?” It’s a moment more reso- predicting a hung Parliament and at- nant with ﬁrst-time candidates than incumbents, but it tendant political and market instability, the people of the United Kingdom may well have been on David Cameron’s mind on May instead returned Prime Minister Da- 8. After his stunning upset, Cameron now faces loom- vid Cameron to Number 10 Downing ing existential crises over Scotland’s future in the United Street to helm a majority Conservative government. Kingdom and Britain’s future in the European Union. From London, political veteran Andrew MacDougall of- Armed with his majority, Cameron now has the luxury of ignoring his political fers some potential answers. opponents; if he keeps his side united he will control the legislative agenda. To succeed in his second term, howev-

July/August 2015 38 er, David Cameron must do a much better job of managing a backbench No matter the final shape of Scotland’s deal, it is he has, to date, largely ignored. clear Britain will eventually need to have an adult conversation about finding a new, more equitable With his opposition either facing leadership or internal strife, Cameron constitutional arrangement. is reaching out to cement his position both within his party and the country. To wit, the engine of government is already in gear: a new cabinet has land’s deal, it is clear Britain will While the so-called “four freedoms” been appointed and a Queen’s speech eventually need to have an adult —the free movement of persons, outlining the government’s agenda conversation about finding a new, goods, services, and capital—won’t has been delivered. more equitable constitutional ar- be up for negotiation, there is room Cameron has returned key figures rangement. In post-election remarks for movement on other fronts. Cam- to marquee posts to implement his Cameron said his plans are to “create eron knows he won’t be able to pla- agenda: George Osborne remains the strongest devolved government cate the hard-line group of 60 or so of Chancellor of the Exchequer; Theresa anywhere.” He’ll have a long way to his MPs that want out of Europe no May remains Home Secretary; Philip go to match jurisdictions like Can- matter what; his task will be to put Hammond will again handle foreign ada, however, where the provinces something substantive on the table affairs; and Michael Fallon retains have control over taxation, health, for the remaining 270 in order to try his post as Defence Secretary. There education, and the implementation to claim victory. is also continuity in other key de- of justice. partments: Jeremy Hunt once again If Cameron has his leads at health; Iain Duncan Smith Cameron won’t, however, want to get bogged down in extended con- way, he will secure at the Department of Work and Pen- his deal with Europe as soon sions; and Nicky Morgan returns to stitutional wrangling at home; he’s Education. got treaty change with Europe on his as possible. The longer the agenda and the result here will frame process drags out, the more Now that he has his team, Cameron his legacy as prime minister. must now get on with business. Hav- his hold over his caucus ing ruled out a third run for prime Thanks to the rise of the UK Indepen- weakens, and the more minister, he must deliver key mani- dence Party, the prime minister must impact it has on his overall festo policies before succession talk attempt to lance the Eurosceptic boil program. overtakes his final term. that sits on the body politic of the United Kingdom. Cameron hopes The government knows that the el- that, by offering and winning a refer- ephantine questions of Scotland endum, he can remove the European and Europe could soon be squashing question from the British political whatever long-term legislative agen- agenda for years to come. The shape of the ensuing deal is da it has planned. widely presumed to be immediate The war will unfold over two battles: concessions on issues like migrant Cameron moved quickly to turn the referendum itself; and the pre- benefits, with eventual, albeit ill- last year’s Scottish referendum vic- ceding negotiation to secure “a better defined, treaty change at some un- tory into a plan to temper Scottish deal” from Europe. specified future moment. nationalism by offering English MPs English votes for English laws. While The main challenge in this ere, the unexpected majority pas de deux immensely popular with his party, it will be to keep the entire negotiation election result has greatly appeared to put party before country. from looking like a stich-up. The re- strengthened Cameron’s H bellious Conservative backbench hand. Even with a slim majority he espite Scotland sending 56 knows it isn’t likely to get significant holds a stronger position than he Scottish National Party MPs European treaty change, but it will would with a coalition partner at this to Westminster, the Caledo- need to feel that its interests are be- D side. Every single Tory ran on a mani- nian contingent will exert little or no ing pursued with maximum sincerity festo pledge to offer the British peo- influence on the formal parliamen- and vigour by the government. ple a choice on Europe. As a result, tary agenda. The SNP will get the de- every single European leader knows If Cameron has his way, he will se- volution measures proposed by Lord that a reckoning is coming and that cure his deal with Europe as soon Smith’s Commission, and no more. it is in their interest to sweeten Cam- as possible. The longer the process No matter the final shape of Scot- eron’s pot ahead of a vote. drags out, the more his hold over his

Policy 39 a weak Miliband in hock to the big- spending Scottish nationalists. This attack neatly piled on voters’ pre- existing views of Miliband as a neb- bishy wonk who was unprepared for the hard choices of government.

The external polls might not have caught the swing in key marginal seats, but Conservative campaign guru Lynton Crosby’s internal polling did. While Labour continued to talk about their much vaunted target seat strategy, the Conservatives went ahead and executed theirs to perfection.

The reward? A troubled United Kingdom.

Nothing derails a political agenda Prime Minister Cameron meets with French President François Hollande at the Élysée in Paris, like an existential crisis. The prime as part of a post-election tour of four European capitals to launch his EU re-negotiation talks. Flickr photo minister faces two—Europe and Scot- land—in this, his second term. They caucus weakens, and the more im- Scotland and gave David Cameron a will be the fight of Cameron’s politi- pact it has on his overall program. powerful talking point at the door- cal life and will define his legacy. But He has promised a referendum by steps of middle England. they will hardly be his only battles. the end of 2017 but would greatly Britain’s finances remain in a parlous prefer to hold it in 2016. So, it turns From the moment it became clear state. A lack of productivity threatens out, would Bank of England Gov- Miliband and Labour couldn’t gov- the long-term recovery of the econo- ernor Mark Carney, the Canadian ern without an SNP assist, Cameron my. The armed forces are threadbare. whose job of calibrating British mon- had his route back to 10 Downing. Syria is in flames and ISIS’ terror is etary policy is made infinitely hard- For the last two weeks of the cam- spreading ever wider. Vladimir Pu- er thanks to the political instability paign a dedicated team of Tory vol- tin’s revanchism shows no signs of caused by haggling over Europe. unteers took to the streets of target seats and pounded the SNP nail into abating. Greece could yet send the And if he gets it wrong, Cameron Labour’s coffin. European Union down the drain. will forever be the leader who sleep- And then there are the usual nagging walked Britain out of Europe. He will scandals of government: misspend- curse the day he won the election no- From the moment it ing, inept performance by ministers, one ever predicted he’d win outright. became clear and tin-pot rebellions. In addition to the Labour Party and Miliband and Labour David Cameron’s leadership will be Liberal Democrats, the other group couldn’t govern without an tested to a degree with which he is who indisputably got the election SNP assist, Cameron had his unfamiliar. He must approach Europe wrong were the pollsters. route back to 10 Downing. and Scotland with strategy, and not his usual bag of tactics. If he displays Month after month, pollsters pub- For the last two weeks of the leadership and marshals his allies he lished polling showing a dead heat campaign a dedicated team can win both fights. between Labour and the Conserva- tives. Come election night, 36.9 per of Tory volunteers took to the In so doing, he would cement his cent of Britain’s pulled the lever for streets of target seats and place in history and leave the Con- Cameron, versus 30.4 per cent for La- pounded the SNP nail into servatives as the dominant party in a bour Leader Ed Miliband. Labour’s coffin. United Kingdom. Contributing Writer Andrew MacDougall, former director of hat happened? In a word: communications for Prime Minister Scotland. W Harper, is a senior executive consultant Here, the Scottish Sgian Dubh cut two The Conservative campaign was ab- at MSLGROUP in London, England. ways: it took away 40 Labour seats in solutely ruthless in its portrayal of [email protected]

July/August 2015