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2014 Peer Review Draft of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index

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2014 Peer Review Draft of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index This document is undergoing a scientific peer review sponsored by the North Atlantic LCC CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS OF SELECTED SPECIES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC LCC REGION This document is undergoing a scientific peer review sponsored by the North Atlantic LCC NatureServe is a non-profit organization dedicated to providing scientific knowledge that forms the basis for effective conservation. Citation: Sneddon, L.A., and G. Hammerson. 2014. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments of Selected Species in the North Atlantic LCC Region. NatureServe, Arlington, VA. © NatureServe 2014 This work was made possible with funding from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. The viewpoints in this publication are those of NatureServe and may not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Front cover photos: Top photo: Boreal Ice-Scour Rivershore Habitat, St. John River, Allagash Wilderness Waterway State Park, August 2004 (Sue Gawler©) Bottom photo: North Atlantic Coastal Plain Dune and Swale Habitat, Cape Cod National Seashore, September 2004 (Lesley Sneddon) NatureServe 4600 North Fairfax Drive, 7th floor Arlington, VA 22203 www.natureserve.org ii This document is undergoing a scientific peer review sponsored by the North Atlantic LCC CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS OF SELECTED SPECIES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC LCC REGION Lesley Sneddon Geoff Hammerson April 2014 iii This document is undergoing a scientific peer review sponsored by the North Atlantic LCC Acknowledgments Funding for this project was provided by the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. We would like to extend our thanks to Andrew Milliken and Scott Schwenk of the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, and to the members of the ad-hoc committee to select the species to be assessed: Phillip de Maynadier, Andrew Cutko, Mary Ann Furedi, Hector Galbraith, Kevin Kalasz, Steve Fuller, and Dana Limpert. We also thank Suzanne Young and Regan Lyons-Smyth of NatureServe for their contributions to the GIS analyses. We also extend our thanks to Bruce Young, Chris Ludwig, Matt Schlesinger, D.J. Evans, Tim Howard, and Bill Nichols for their thoughtful review and comment of drafts of this paper. iv This document is undergoing a scientific peer review sponsored by the North Atlantic LCC Table of Contents Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................... v List of Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................................ vii Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... viii Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Methods ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Selection of species to be assessed .......................................................................................................... 3 Foundation Species ............................................................................................................................... 3 Species of High Regional Concern .................................................................................................... 4 Representative Species ......................................................................................................................... 4 Final list compilation ............................................................................................................................. 5 Climate Change Vulnerability Index ........................................................................................................ 11 Exposure .............................................................................................................................................. 11 Sensitivity ............................................................................................................................................ 11 Climate Change Vulnerability Index and Data Sources ........................................................................... 14 Climate data ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Species data ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Vulnerability of species by category ....................................................................................................... 21 Foundation Species ............................................................................................................................. 21 Species of High Regional Concern ....................................................................................................... 25 Representative Species ....................................................................................................................... 29 Discussion.................................................................................................................................................... 32 Foundation Species ................................................................................................................................. 33 Species of High Regional Concern ........................................................................................................... 34 Representative Species ........................................................................................................................... 36 Results compared to other related studies ............................................................................................ 37 Sources of uncertainty ............................................................................................................................ 50 v This document is undergoing a scientific peer review sponsored by the North Atlantic LCC Other factors to consider ........................................................................................................................ 52 Utility of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index ............................................................................... 52 Effects of Glaciation ............................................................................................................................ 52 Adaptation and adaptive capacity ...................................................................................................... 53 Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 53 Conservation actions ........................................................................................................................... 54 Additional monitoring and data needs ............................................................................................... 55 References .................................................................................................................................................. 56 vi This document is undergoing a scientific peer review sponsored by the North Atlantic LCC List of Figures and Tables Figure 1. Projected mid-century temperature increases in the North Atlantic LCC based on IPCC Fourth Assessment, Medium A1B Emission Scenario, and ensemble average General Circulation Model. .......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2 Relationship between exposure and sensitivity factors in the CCVI (from Young et al. 2012) ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 3. Subregions of the North Atlantic LCC used to conduct CCVI assessments. ...................... 15 Figure 4. Precipitation in mm for last 50 years. ..................................................................................... 17 Figure 5 Assessment subregions (left) compared to Latitudinal zones of MCCS 2012 (right) ......... 40 Table 1. List of species chosen for vulnerability analysis, indicating habitat and distribution among foundation, species of high regional concern, and representative categories. .................................... 6 Table 2. Common and scientific names of assessed species by taxonomic group ............................... 9 Table 3. Vulnerability results of assessed species by subregion of the North Atlantic LCC. ............ 19 Table 4. Comparison of CCVI results for representative species and those they represent by broad habitat type. ..............................................................................................................................................
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