Southeast Asia from Scott Circle

CSIS Southeast Asia Program

Volume VII | Issue 14 | July 7, 2016

Recalibrating the Islamic State Threat in Inside This Issue Southeast Asia phuong nguyen and conor cronin biweekly update Phuong Nguyen is an associate fellow with the CSIS Southeast Asia • President Duterte takes office Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in • Indonesia approves tax amnesty bill, Washington, D.C. Conor Cronin is a research associate with the defense budget hike Southeast Asia Program. • Thai prime minister will not resign regardless of referendum outcome July 7, 2016 • Chinese state councilor visits Vietnam

For many Southeast Asian governments, terrorism threats rank among looking ahead their top security concerns. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore—no • CSIS Sixth Annual South China Sea strangers to dealing with violent Islamist threats—have been on Conference heightened alert for the past two years over concern that attacks linked to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militant group could take place in • Financing China’s Expanding Role in Global their territories. Energy

An Indonesian suicide bomber believed to be a supporter of ISIS on July 5 attacked a police station in the city of Solo in Central Java Province, killing himself and injuring a police officer. Earlier this year, in January, bombing attacks targeting a police station and shopping district in central Jakarta in broad daylight, masterminded by an Indonesian ISIS fighter based in Syria, marked the first successful attack by the militant group on Indonesian soil.

Meanwhile, Malaysian police on July 4 confirmed the first successful ISIS attack on Malaysian soil, after having foiled numerous plots being planned by ISIS-linked suspects to attack public targets deemed as un-Islamic. According to Malaysian authorities, a Malaysian ISIS fighter in Syria had ordered the June 28 grenade attack on a bar outside the capital city of Kuala Lumpur in which two of the locals suspected of being involved were police officers.

1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Southeast Asia from theSoutheast Corner of 18thAsia & from K Streets Scott CircleNovember July 9,7, 20112016 | | 2 2

Recalibrating Two Models forthe Integrating Islamic State Asia: Threat A Must in WinSoutheast for President Asia (continued) Obama (continued)

These attacks suggest that similar ISIS-linked attacks can reasonably be expected in Southeast Asia in the future, despite the best attempts by regional governments to preempt them. As ISIS fights to cling to its territory in Iraq and Syria, the group is said to have recently expanded its sights to Southeast Asia—a prospect long feared by governments and security experts—in an effort to maintain its influence.

A propaganda video released by ISIS on June 22 in five languages—Arabic, Bahasa Indonesia, English, Malay, and Tagalog—called on its supporters in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines who cannot join the group in Syria to “join the mujahideen in the Philippines” instead. This is due to the fact that Indonesian, Indonesian Special Police Unit Densus Malaysian, and Singapore authorities have been intensifying arrests of 88 (Special Detachment 88) securing a local suspects as they attempt to leave for Syria, as well as of Southeast bomb site in January 2016. Densus 88 was Asian ISIS fighters returning through the Middle East before they reach created with funding from the U.S. and home. Australian governments in the aftermath of the first Bali bombing in 2002 that killed over 200 people. The special unit has These latest developments are concerning for several reasons. Up until played a crucial role in combating Islamist now, ISIS’s reach—to the extent that it was organized—was attributed to extremism in Indonesia. https://www.flickr. several local militant groups in Indonesia and the southern Philippines com/photos/derweise/24268063382/in/ claiming allegiance to the group. In Indonesia, this takes the form of the photolist-CYuaKU-CzHGXx-CbNfmZ-D1RJ9r- East Indonesia Mujahidin group, or MIT, based in the jungles of Central CbDDsg-D9b6cV-CFVWNu-D9bUcg-CG1xXu- Sulawesi Province. Santoso, MIT’s head and a U.S.-designated terrorist, has D93sHM-CbGHS3-D6TZcd-CzGKB2-D933e6- been on the run from Indonesian police and military forces for months. CbAUof-CFWRoQ-CYtR9f-D6SWsh-CYDbjb- CG2nRf-CbHHxH-CzAndB-CYxWRu-D1PFgM- CzDZgH-D1T23p-Cby6FS-CG4nGd-D987Kv- In the Philippines, factions of the militant group Abu Sayyaf, which now D6Nnvd-CbE2Eo-D94YsV-CbENwB-D1VkT6- makes its living from criminal activities, have pledged allegiance to ISIS in D1T8ap-CzErfr-CYABTy-CYttPm-D9csq4- recent months. In a video released last month, Abu Sayyaf leader and U.S.- D1LRAv-D9bhEp-D1LoL8-CYDeby-CFZYnU- designated terrorist Isnilon Hapilon was named the leader of ISIS forces in D6TQr7-D1Tir6-CbGSiG-CbLfHp-D93FhV- the Philippines. CbCtbh But the latest call could empower Southeast Asian fighters in the Middle East, many of whom are disillusioned with their conditions or the menial non-combat tasks given to them, to return and potentially regroup in the southern Philippines, where protracted Muslim insurgencies and weak government control over the years have bred ungoverned spaces and a weak rule of law.

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Recalibrating the Islamic State Threat in Southeast Asia (continued)

Estimates of the number of Southeast Asians who have joined ISIS in the A view of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital. Middle East vary between 700 and 1,000, a miniscule figure in a region of Malaysian police have until last month over 600 million people. Yet should they choose to head for the southern foiled numerous plots by ISIS supporters Philippines instead of their home countries, this could present a shift from to attack public targets deemed un-Islamic. existing patterns to which regional governments have become accustomed The grenade attack on a bar outside Kuala and pose greater challenges for the overstretched Philippine armed forces. Lumpur on June 28 was reportedly ordered by a Malaysian ISIS fighter in Syria and carried by a group of locals, among whom The Philippine government has already seen a growing threat of ISIS were two police officers. https://www.flickr. affiliates in Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago, where Abu Sayyaf com/photos/glowform/7566102332/ kidnappings and the execution of foreign hostages have underscored the lack of control the Philippine government has over its southern reaches. For 13 years as part of Operation Enduring Freedom, U.S. forces advised and assisted the Philippine military in the fight against militants with the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines. Officials declared the joint task force a success, as numbers of Abu Sayyaf fighters dwindled and a peace agreement was negotiated with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, one of the largest separatist groups in the southern Philippines.

The U.S. Pacific Command in 2015 decided to wind down the task force’s operations, leaving just a small team of advisers to continue assisting the

Recalibrating Two Models forthe Integrating Islamic State Asia: Threat A Must in WinSoutheast for President Asia (continued) Obama (continued)

Philippine military. But the Philippine Congress’s failure to follow through with the peace agreement and the concurrent spread of ISIS’s message on social media have given Abu Sayyaf the opportunity to attract dissatisfied radicals and increase its foothold in the area.

The national security team of newly inaugurated president Rodrigo Duterte has declared the eradication of Abu Sayyaf its first priority. But without a concrete plan to renew the peace process in the southern Philippines, the remote islands of the Sulu archipelago will continue to provide a safe hideout for ISIS-inspired militants.

Now that the militant group has publicized messages aimed at Southeast Asia, it remains to be seen whether U.S. ambassador to the Philippines Philip this will translate into greater resources and better organization for Goldberg meeting with the Philippines’ local pro-ISIS groups, most of which have had difficulty recruiting and Western Mindanao Command in January obtaining training and resources due to stepped-up policing efforts. In 2014. The U.S. Joint Special Operations Task March, for example, a small network of ISIS supporters who were trying to Force-Philippines wound down its presence sneak two foreign terror suspects out of Malaysia to another Southeast in the southern Philippines in 2015, leaving Asian country and channel funds to a group in the southern Philippines behind a small group of advisers to assist were arrested by Malaysian police before they could cause real damage. the Philippine military. The government of new Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has said that crushing Islamist In addition to the southern Philippines, Poso in Indonesia’s Central militants in the south is among its top Sulawesi has emerged as a training ground for foreign fighters hoping priorities. https://www.flickr.com/photos/ to travel to join ISIS. How this network will factor into the group’s and usembassymanila/14482420883/in/ its returnees’ potential plans to establish a foothold in Southeast Asia album-72157645208006936/ should be seriously considered. Already Uighurs from China were found among MIT militants during clashes between MIT and Indonesian police in Poso earlier this year. Meanwhile, ISIS’s ability to infiltrate the police in Malaysia—a trend concerning in itself—can be made worse by the group’s supporters’ improved ability to organize and disseminate information.

These developments add yet another layer of concern for regional governments and the United States, which has expanded counterterrorism intelligence sharing efforts with Malaysia and Singapore over the past year. ISIS’s message ultimately has limited appeal in most of Southeast Asia, but the group’s ability to evolve, adapt, and exploit cracks in a region with porous borders, and, in some cases, limited state capacity, should be a legitimate cause for concern. ■

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philippines

• President Duterte takes office. Rodrigo Duterte on June 30 was officially sworn in as president of the Philippines in a simple ceremony at the presidential palace in the capital city of Manila. Duterte said during his inauguration speech that he will adhere to due process and the rule of law in his crime-fighting and anti-corruption methods. The new president also stressed the need to restore the Philippine people’s trust in government and asked the public to help him bring about change.

• Foreign secretary asks international community to help enforce South China Sea ruling. New Philippine foreign secretary Perfecto Yasay asked Newly sworn-in Philippine president the international community to come together to help enforce the July Rodrigo Duterte (left) and his predecessor, 12 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the case filed by the Benigno Aquino (right). Duterte officially Philippines against China, according to a June 28 report by the Philippine took office on June 30, and reemphasized a focus on law and order and anti-corruption Inquirer. Yasay asked countries to help convince China to respect the efforts in his inauguration speech. outcome of the arbitration should the court’s ruling push back on China’s https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ claims in the South China Sea. He also said in a June 23 TV interview that commons/4/40/Rodrigo_Duterte_Benigno_ the Philippines is ready to respect a decision in favor of China. Aquino_III_03.jpg • ISIS releases propaganda video targeting the Philippines. The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on June 22 released a propaganda video urging ISIS supporters who cannot join the fight in Syria to join militants in the southern Philippines instead. Authorities in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore since last year have stepped up arrests of suspected ISIS supporters attempting to travel to the Middle East to join the militant group. While some Islamist militants based in the Philippines have pledged allegiance to ISIS, local security officials have denied the presence of ISIS fighters in the country.

indonesia

• President holds cabinet meeting on warship visit to Natuna; orders expansion of commercial activities in South China Sea. President Joko Widodo on June 23 held a cabinet meeting on board the warship KRI An Indonesia Air Force’s F-16 taking off Imam Bonjol 383, during which he instructed his ministers to oversee from Halim Perdanakusuma air base in the expansion of Indonesia’s fishing and energy sectors and stepped-up Jakarta. The Indonesian Air Force is set to expand its base in Ranai, the capital military presence in the Natuna Islands in Riau Province. Widodo’s visit to of Natuna Regency in Riau Province. It Natuna was designed to send a strong signal that Indonesia is committed plans to add a bigger hangar in order to to safeguarding its sovereignty over the waters off Natuna that lie within accommodate at least eight fighter jets in its exclusive economic zone, but which China recently said are part of its the coming years. https://www.flickr.com/ “traditional fishing grounds.” photos/and4n9/19182819040/in/photolist- FVARpy-GkHiWR-ve7XMj/

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• Parliament approves tax amnesty bill, defense budget hike. The Indonesian parliament on June 28 approved a tax amnesty bill that aims to entice wealthy Indonesians to repatriate billions of dollars of funds from overseas. The government estimates the tax amnesty may result in more than $12 billion in government revenue. Lawmakers also agreed to increase Indonesia’s 2017 defense budget by 10 percent to $11 billion, with a large portion allocated to the upgrading of military assets in border areas such as Kalimantan, East Nusa Tenggara Province, and the Natuna Islands.

• Newmont to sell Indonesian mine for $1.3 billion. U.S.-based mining company Newmont on June 30 said it will sell its 48.5 percent stake in its Indonesia mine to PT Amman Mineral Internasional, an Indonesian company backed by three state-owned banks, for $1.3 billion. Japan’s Sumitomo, Newmont’s operating partner in the mine, also agreed to sell its stake to the same local group. The arrangement ends months of negotiations between Newmont and the Indonesian government, after Jakarta in 2014 put in place an export ban on unrefined mineral ores.

vietnam

• China’s state councilor visits Vietnam, calls for greater maritime cooperation. Chinese state councilor Yang Jiechi on June 27 met with Vietnamese deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs Pham Binh Minh to discuss boosting maritime cooperation. Yang stressed the importance of mutual restraint and peaceful negotiation in settling the Yang Jiechi, China’s state councilor. South China Sea disputes. The two oversaw the signing of a memorandum During a June 27 meeting with top of cooperation between the Vietnamese and Chinese coast guards. Yang Vietnamese officials in Hanoi, Yang also met other top Vietnamese leaders, including President Tran Dai expressed Beijing’s interest in deepening Quang and General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party Nguyen cooperation with Vietnam on managing Phu Trong, to discuss other aspects of China-Vietnam relations. South China Sea disputes. http://static. kremlin.ru/media/events/photos/big/ • Numerous errors prompt legislature to delay revised penal code. HSqV5B8f16sCkAA0dLHlqrBA48PzSXlJ. jpeg Vietnamese president Tran Dai Quang on June 30 announced the postponement of the country’s revised penal code, originally scheduled to come into effect on July 1. The National Assembly had convened on June 27 to vote on the postponement after the revised code, passed in November 2015, was found to contain more than 90 errors and significant loopholes. The implementation date is now set for July 2017. The newly elected National Assembly will oversee its revision.

• Government blames Taiwanese-owned steel mill for mass fish death. The Vietnamese government on June 30 said Taiwanese-owned Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation was responsible for the 70 tons of dead fish that washed up on the shores of four central Vietnamese provinces in April.

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Formosa promised to pay a $500 million fine, the highest ever demanded of a single firm in Vietnam. The company is working with government agencies to mitigate damage and has pledged to prioritize environmental protection going forward. The fish kill has adversely affected the economy and sparked domestic political tensions in recent months.

myanmar

• Myanmar removed from money laundering watch list. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental body that includes China and the United States, on June 24 removed Myanmar from its money laundering watch list. The decision came after a FATF team made an on-site visit to assess Myanmar’s anti-money laundering and counterterrorism financing frameworks, and noted a significant improvement in its supporting laws and regulations. The removal is expected to facilitate the ease of doing business in Myanmar for financial institutions from other countries.

• 21st-Century Panglong Conference set for August. President’s Office spokesperson Zaw Htay on June 28 said State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and representatives from the eight ethnic armed groups that signed a cease-fire last October agreed to hold the 21st-Century Panglong Conference no later than the last week of August. The conference is intended to hammer out a framework for national reconciliation with various ethnic armed groups. Participation of the United Nationalities Federal Council, a group of armed groups that did not sign the cease-fire, remains in doubt. The government has said ethnic rebels do not need to sign the cease-fire agreement in order to take part in the new peace process.

• Communal violence flares in Bago Region, Kachin State. Communal violence flared in Bago Region in southcentral Myanmar on June 23 as a 200-strong Buddhist mob destroyed a mosque in the region’s Waw Township, following a dispute between local Buddhists and Muslims over a construction project. Authorities decided not to file charges against the perpetrators. Separately, another mob on July 1 burned down a Muslim prayer hall in Hpakant Township in northern Myanmar’s Kachin State over another construction dispute. Police have arrested four men and a woman in connection to the incident in Hpakant.

malaysia

• Najib announces cabinet reshuffle. Prime Minister Najib Razak on June 27 announced the third cabinet reshuffle since 2009 in an effort to

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further consolidate his control within the ruling United Malay National Organization (UMNO). Najib appointed two new ministers—Mah Siew Keong as the new minister in charge of plantations and commodities, and Johari Abdul Ghani as second finance minister. UMNO vice president Shafie Apdal on July 4 became the latest political figure to leave the party in a show of dissent against Najib—following in the footsteps of Muhyiddin Yassin, Najib’s former deputy, and Mukhriz Mahathir, son of former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad.

• Chief of anti-corruption body investigating 1MDB steps down. The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission on June 23 announced that its head, Kassim Mohamed, will step down from his position on August 1, more than two years before the scheduled end of his term. Kassim, who took office in 2010, has been spearheading an investigation into allegations of graft and financial mismanagement at state investment fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) and the transfer of an alleged $647 million donation to 1MDB into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s bank account.

• Malaysia signs port alliance agreement with China under One Belt One The Port of Huizhou located in southern Road initiative. A memorandum of understanding was signed on June 25 China’s Guangdong Province. In 2012, in Huizhou between Kuantan Port and the Port of Huizhou in southern approximately 51 million tons of cargo China as part of Beijing’s One Belt One Road initiative, which aims to boost transited the port. https://www.flickr.com/ trade and infrastructure connectivity between China and its neighboring photos/94046063@N04/12402907784/in/ photolist-jU19nE countries. Malaysian transport minister Liow Tiong Lai said at the signing ceremony that Malaysia and China plan to strengthen their partnership on human capacity training as part of the agreement.

thailand

• Prayuth says he will not resign regardless of August referendum outcome. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha on June 27 said that he would not step down even if voters reject a draft constitution in the country’s August 7 referendum. The referendum is Thailand’s first national vote since the 2014 coup and will determine if the Thai population will accept the new constitution. The military government has banned criticism of the charter ahead of the referendum. Prayuth’s statement was made in light of British prime minister David Cameron’s resignation following Britain’s referendum to quit the European Union.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha. • Thailand loses bid for UNSC seat to Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan on June Prayuth, who has led Thailand’s military 28 defeated Thailand in the second round of voting for a non-permanent government since a coup in 2014, has said seat on the United Nations’ Security Council. Thailand received 55 votes to he will not step down even if the draft Kazakhstan’s 138 votes. Non-permanent members are elected for a two-year constitution is rejected in the August 7 term by the UN’s General Assembly and the newly elected countries will referendum. https://upload.wikimedia.org/ wikipedia/commons/5/58/Chan_o_cha_ Portrait.jpg 1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Southeast Asia from Scott Circle July 7, 2016 | 9

begin their terms on January 1, 2017. Kazakhstan will be joined by Bolivia, Ethiopia, and Sweden, while Italy and the Netherlands will share the final seat. singapore

• Blogger sentenced to eight months in jail over “seditious” anti-foreigner posts. Yang Kaiheng, owner of the website “The Real Singapore,” on June 28 pleaded guilty to sedition charges and was sentenced to eight months in jail. Yang and his wife, Ai Takagi, published a series of xenophobic articles that “sowed discord” and provoked hatred toward foreigners living in Singapore, according to the court. Prosecutors argued that Yang allowed Takagi to write the posts to generate increased advertising revenue on The State Courts of Singapore, in 2014. their website, with bank statements showing over $500,000 in revenue Blogger Yang Kaiheng on June 28 pleaded over three years. guilty to six charges of sedition at the court related to anti-foreigner material • Three U.S. guided-missile destroyers visit Singapore. The U.S. Pacific posted on his website. https://commons. Surface Action Group, consisting of the guided-missile destroyers USS wikimedia.org/wiki/File:State_Courts_of_ Decatur, USS Momsen, and USS Spruance, made a port call to Singapore Singapore_prior_to_renovations_-_20140714. jpg July 2-5. Along with two detachments from the Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 49, the ships are conducting activities with regional counterparts and maritime security operations in order to contribute to freedom of navigation and lawful use of the sea. The Decatur and Momsen previously participated in exercises with forces from Japan and South Korea. cambodia

• Hun Sen accuses foreign critics of “bullying,” denies political crisis. Prime Minister Hun Sen on June 28 accused foreign powers of bullying, following accusations that Cambodia helped Beijing block a recent joint ASEAN press statement on the South China Sea dispute. Hun Sen accused critics of “collusion” and attempting to exploit ASEAN as a pawn against China. He also dismissed claims of a political crisis in Cambodia as “fabrications” by scaremongers. One day earlier, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party threatened lawmakers from the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party with a salary freeze as punishment for their ongoing boycott of the parliament. Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen. At an anniversary celebration for the ruling laos Cambodian People’s Party on June 28, the prime minister went on a tirade against • Prime minister visits Cambodia, discusses opening of new border foreign and domestic critics. https://upload. checkpoints. Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith on June 27 met wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/ Cambodian premier Hun Sen in Phnom Penh, where they vowed to Hun_Sen_2012.jpg strengthen bilateral economic and security cooperation by opening more

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checkpoints along the Laos-Cambodia border. The agreement was part of the two nations’ attempt to boost trade, promote tourism, and prevent illegal border-crossing. The new checkpoints will supplement the route through the Voeung Kam-Dom Kralor post, currently the sole overland route linking the two countries.

south china sea

• Permanent Court of Arbitration announces date for Philippines v. China decision. The Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague on June 29 said that it would issue the long-anticipated ruling on the Philippines’ case against China’s extensive maritime claims on July 12. The arbitration case was launched by Manila in 2013 to contest Beijing’s “nine-dash-line,” which covers up to 85 percent of the South China Sea. Beijing has refused to acknowledge the court’s jurisdiction over the case and embarked on a public relations blitz to garner international support ahead of the ruling, which analysts expect will favor the Philippines. A meeting room of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Peace Palace, The • China identifies “combustible ice” reserves in South China Sea. The Hague. The court will release its decision China Geological Survey has discovered a new reserve of methane on the Philippines’ case against China’s South China Sea territorial claims on hydrate—a gas-trapping ice compound—west of the Pearl River Basin in July 12. https://upload.wikimedia.org/ the South China Sea, according to a June 26 report by the Guangzhou Daily. wikipedia/commons/8/88/Une_des_ A 135-square-mile belt of the compound, also called “combustible ice,” was salles_de_r%C3%A9union_de_la_Cour_ found approximately one mile below the sea surface. Authorities did not permanente_d%27arbitrage.jpg specify the amount of natural gas the belt might contain. Given the ice’s high energy density, many expect the discovery to fuel further energy exploration in the area.

trans pacific partnership

• Trump vows to cancel TPP if he becomes president. Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said during a campaign stop at a metals recycling facility in Pennsylvania on June 28 that if elected he will cancel the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, signed in February between the administration of President Barack Obama and 11 Asia-Pacific countries. Trump also said he would reopen the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with neighboring Mexico and Canada, and force them to accept changes to NAFTA. Trump called the Presumptive Republican presidential TPP “another disaster done and pushed by special interests.” nominee Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Trump has said the decline in American asean manufacturing over the decades “is the consequence of a leadership class that worships globalism over Americanism.” • ASEAN wants RCEP to eliminate tariffs on over 90 percent of goods. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ The 10 ASEAN member countries are expected to propose a 92 percent commons/7/7d/Donald_Trump_by_Gage_ tariff reduction on trade in goods as part of the ongoing negotiations Skidmore_3_(cropped).jpg

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on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in August with eight non-ASEAN economies, according to a June 27 report in the Thai newspaper The Nation. RCEP countries had previously agreed to an immediate 65 percent reduction in tariffs, with another 20 percent to be reduced within 10 years, and the remaining 15 percent covering sensitive products to be negotiated in the future.

• Myanmar downgraded in annual Trafficking in Persons report; Thailand, Philippines, Cambodia upgraded. The U.S. State Department’s Trafficking in Persons Report 2016 has downgraded Myanmar to Tier 3 from the Tier 2 watch list due to the persistence of recruitment of child soldiers and forced labor. The annual report ranks governments based on their efforts to combat human trafficking. Among ASEAN countries, Thailand was upgraded from last year’s Tier 3—the lowest ranking—to the Tier 2 watch list in the report, released on June 30. The Philippines and Cambodia also received upgrades in their tier rankings, based on efforts by their governments to eliminate forced labor, the sex trade, and child sex trafficking. ■

1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Looking Ahead

• CSIS Sixth Annual South China Sea Conference. The Southeast Asia Program at CSIS on July 12 will host the 6th Annual CSIS South China Sea Conference to examine both longstanding and emerging issues in the South China Sea. The conference will feature speakers from throughout the region, including from claimant countries. Panelists will review recent developments, engage on legal and military issues, and discuss the wider geostrategic implications. Senator Dan Sullivan, member of the Senate Committee on Armed Services, will deliver the keynote address. The event will take place from 9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW. Click here to RSVP.

• Financing China’s Expanding Role in Global Energy. The Energy and National Security Program and the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS on July 13 will host a discussion with Kevin Gallaghar and Bo Kong on the role of Chinese state financing in global energy development, and to present findings from two of their recently published studies from the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University. The event will take place from 2:00 p.m. to 3.30 p.m., 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW. Click here to RSVP.

• USINDO DC Open Forum on “Disengaging Indonesian Jihadists: What Works”. The United States–Indonesia Society on July 20 will host an open forum with Dr. Julie Chernov Hwang, associate professor and chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Goucher College, to discuss the process of reintegrating Islamist extremists back into society in Indonesia. The event will take place from 2:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m., 1625 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Suite 550. Click here to RSVP. ■

1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org southeast asia from scott circle CSIS Southeast Asia Program contributors: Murray Hiebert, Senior Adviser and Deputy Director Phuong Nguyen, Associate Fellow Conor Cronin, Research Associate John Cole, Researcher Chau Hoang, Researcher Norashiqin Toh, Researcher Chakra Winarso, Researcher

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