Adaptation in the Water Supply Sector of Eastern Styria (Austria)

I. Oberauner2,4, F. Prettenthaler2,4 A. Dalla-Via1, A. Gobiet3,4, R. Kurzmann2, M. Steiner2,5, H. Truhetz3,4, N. Vetters2,4, G. Zakarias2

Workshop on “Adaptation to the Impacts of Climatic Change in the Alps”

Wengen, October 2006

1Institute of Water Resources Management, Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft, Graz 2Institute of Technology and Regional Policy, Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft, Graz 3Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, University of Graz 4Wegener Centre for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz 5Department of Economics, University of Graz

Outline

CONTENTS • Introduction OUTLINE INTRODUCTION • Climatology CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – – Climate regions and stations – dynamic downscaling dynamic downscaling – Climate change projection on Eastern Styria climate change projection on • Hydrology Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY hydrological – Hydrological characteristics of Eastern Styria characteristics of Eastern Styria – Hydrological prospects hydrological prospects • Economics ECONOMICS need for adaptation economic threats – The need for adaptation for Eastern Styria – Economic threats for Eastern Styria supply-side adaptive strategies – Supply-side adaptive strategies demand-side adaptive strategies – Demand-side adaptive strategies TAKE HOME MESSAGE • Take home message 2

Introduction

CONTENTS • Project motivation OUTLINE INTRODUCTION – quantitative estimation of expected exposure CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – and adaptive strategies to global change dynamic downscaling impacts on water provision in Eastern Styria climate change projection on – Eastern Styria representative for “dry” regions Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY hydrological rising temperature characteristics of Eastern Styria hydrological less precipitation (east end of the Alps) prospects shallow aquifers ECONOMICS need for adaptation economic threats for Eastern Styria • Client: Austrian Academy of Sciences supply-side adaptive strategies demand-side • Project end: 2006 adaptive strategies TAKE HOME MESSAGE

Climate regions and stations – dynamic downscaling (MM5 – 10 km grid)

mountainous CONTENTS region OUTLINE INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – dynamic downscaling climate change projection on hilly region Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY hydrological characteristics of Eastern Styria hydrological prospects ECONOMICS need for adaptation economic threats for Eastern Styria supply-side adaptive strategies demand-side adaptive strategies TAKE HOME MESSAGE

Climate change projection (I)

CONTENTS • Scenario on seasonal temperature change comparing OUTLINE 1981 to 1990 and 2041 to 2050 INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – 3,0 dynamic downscaling 2,7 2,7 2,5 2,6 climate change 2,4 2,4 projection on 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,0 Eastern Styria 1,9 HYDROLOGY 1,5 1,8 hydrological mountainous characteristics of region Eastern Styria 1,0 hydrological hilly region prospects 0,5 ECONOMICS need for adaptation temperature change [°C] 0,0 economic threats DJF MAM JJA SON annual for Eastern Styria supply-side mean adaptive strategies value demand-side adaptive strategies DJF: December, January, February JJA: June, July, August TAKE HOME MAM: March, April, May SON: September, October, November MESSAGE

Climate change projection (II)

CONTENTS • Scenario on seasonal precipitation change comparing OUTLINE 1981 to 1990 and 2041 to 2050 INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions 0,60 and stations – dynamic 0,40 0,44 0,43 downscaling 0,20 climate change projection on 0,00 Eastern Styria -0,02 -0,24 -0,23 HYDROLOGY -0,20 -0,11 -0,13 -0,36 hydrological -0,40 characteristics of mountainous Eastern Styria -0,60 region hydrological prospects -0,80 -0,95 hilly region ECONOMICS -1,00 -1,16 need for adaptation -1,20 economic threats change in precipitation [mm/d] precipitation in change for Eastern Styria -1,40 supply-side DJF MAM JJA SON annual adaptive strategies demand-side mean value adaptive strategies DJF: December, January, February JJA: June, July, August TAKE HOME MAM: March, April, May SON: September, October, November MESSAGE

Hydrological characteristics

CONTENTS • Eastern Styria is characterized by a relatively high OUTLINE INTRODUCTION share of private water wells CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – dynamic • Diminishing mean groundwater tables and downscaling increasing peak demand for municipal water in climate change projection on drought periods (e.g. summer 2003) Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY hydrological – disproportional effect of drought periods caused by characteristics of Eastern Styria lower groundwater tables in private wells hydrological – increasing demand for connections to the municipal prospects ECONOMICS water provision need for adaptation economic threats • Adaptation in the past for Eastern Styria supply-side adaptive strategies – external water demand-side adaptive strategies – construction of further public wells (Unteres Murtal) TAKE HOME MESSAGE

Private water provision

CONTENTS OUTLINE INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – dynamic Number of downscaling climate change buildings projection on Eastern Styria provided by HYDROLOGY hydrological private wells characteristics of Eastern Styria in 2001 hydrological prospects ECONOMICS need for adaptation economic threats for Eastern Styria supply-side adaptive strategies demand-side adaptive strategies TAKE HOME MESSAGE

Hydrological prospects

• Climatologists expect increased future rates of CONTENTS OUTLINE drought periods in the future INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions • Increasing pressure and stations – dynamic downscaling – further decrease of mean groundwater tables of climate change projection on private and public wells Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY – further connections to municipal water supply hydrological characteristics of Eastern Styria – rough expectations concerning additional peak hydrological demand: 200 l/s prospects ECONOMICS – central Eastern Styria: relatively low mean need for adaptation economic threats groundwater tables and low permeability for Eastern Styria supply-side → relatively high pressure adaptive strategies demand-side – Unteres Murtal: higher mean groundwater tables and adaptive strategies higher permeability → relatively less pressure TAKE HOME MESSAGE

Regions in Eastern Styria

CONTENTS OUTLINE INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – dynamic downscaling climate change projection on Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY hydrological characteristics of Eastern Styria hydrological prospects ECONOMICS need for adaptation economic threats for Eastern Styria supply-side adaptive strategies demand-side adaptive strategies TAKE HOME MESSAGE

The need for adaptation

CONTENTS • Groundwater resources OUTLINE – deep groundwater: target is sustainable use INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY but partially falling pressure trends → no big additional climate regions and stations – resources dynamic downscaling – springs: only in the mountainous region; no additional climate change projection on springs with higher capacity for public water supply known Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY – shallow groundwater: groundwater levels and hydrological characteristics of permeability to low for public water supply in hilly region Eastern Styria hydrological • Drought periods (e. g. summer 2002 and 2003) prospects ECONOMICS – decreasing groundwater resources need for adaptation – increasing demand (irrigation etc.) economic threats for Eastern Styria – temporary water scarcity supply-side adaptive strategies • Forms of adaptation strategies demand-side adaptive strategies – supply-side adaptive strategies TAKE HOME – demand-side adaptive strategies MESSAGE

Economic threats for Eastern Styria

CONTENTS • Economic data on water intensive industries OUTLINE INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY – employees: 20 700 climate regions and stations – – annual production value: € 2.7 Billion dynamic downscaling – annual gross value added: € 1 Billion climate change projection on Eastern Styria • 2-week loss of production caused by water scarcity HYDROLOGY hydrological characteristics of – loss in production value: € 105 Million Eastern Styria hydrological – loss in gross value added: € 40 Million prospects ECONOMICS need for adaptation • Most affected industries economic threats for Eastern Styria supply-side – metal industry (PV: € 21, GVA: € 7) adaptive strategies demand-side – food production (PV: € 24, GVA: € 8) adaptive strategies TAKE HOME – tourism industry (PV: € 21, GVA: € 9) MESSAGE

Supply-side adaptive strategies (I)

CONTENTS • Adaptive strategies on the supply-side OUTLINE INTRODUCTION – connecting all regional pipe networks (pooling) CLIMATOLOGY climate regions and stations – – investment in a pipeline that connects Graz (supplied dynamic by pipeline from abundant alpine springs) to Hartberg downscaling climate change projection on • Assessment of Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY hydrological –direct characteristics of Eastern Styria – indirect hydrological prospects – induced ECONOMICS need for adaptation effects of the investment on the national economy economic threats for Eastern Styria supply-side • Assessment method adaptive strategies demand-side adaptive strategies – MultiREG: multiregional and multisectoral TAKE HOME econometric model MESSAGE

Supply-side adaptive strategies (II)

CONTENTS • Macroeconomic effects on the national economy of an OUTLINE investment in a regional pipe network and a pipeline INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions (Values in million Euro; sum of values within the considered time period and stations – dynamic from 2004 to 2008) downscaling climate change Regional pipe projection on Pipeline Eastern Styria network HYDROLOGY hydrological characteristics of Direct investment 47,3 13,1 Eastern Styria hydrological Additional production value 84,8 23,1 prospects ECONOMICS Additional gross value added 46,8 12,7 need for adaptation economic threats Additional employment 810 210 for Eastern Styria supply-side adaptive strategies Additional water capacity not available 212 l/s demand-side adaptive strategies TAKE HOME (loss of gross value added of water intensive industries for a MESSAGE 2 weeks breakdown = € 40 Million) 14

Supply-side adaptive strategies (III)

CONTENTS Allocation of additional gross value OUTLINE added among industries in Austria INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions The regional pipe and stations – The pipeline case dynamic network case downscaling climate change projection on Eastern Styria 6% 2% HYDROLOGY 33% 33% hydrological characteristics of Eastern Styria hydrological prospects ECONOMICS 48% need for adaptation 47% economic threats for Eastern Styria 14% supply-side 16% adaptive strategies demand-side construction manufacturing construction manufacturing adaptive strategies services others services others TAKE HOME MESSAGE

Demand-side adaptive strategies (I)

CONTENTS • Assessed options OUTLINE INTRODUCTION – expansive water price policy CLIMATOLOGY climate regions – implementation of water saving technologies in and stations – dynamic households downscaling climate change projection on – implementation of water saving technologies in hotels Eastern Styria HYDROLOGY • Water saving technologies hydrological characteristics of Eastern Styria – devices for showers hydrological prospects – toilettes ECONOMICS need for adaptation – water taps economic threats for Eastern Styria supply-side • Method used: cost efficiency analysis adaptive strategies demand-side %∆Q adaptive strategies • Water price elasticity of demand: ε p = = −0,25 TAKE HOME %∆P MESSAGE

Demand-side adaptive strategies (II)

CONTENTS Water saving Water saving Increase OUTLINE technologies in technologies in in price* INTRODUCTION households* hotels CLIMATOLOGY climate regions Current water and stations – 9,215,000 9,215,000 850,000 dynamic demand [m³/year] downscaling climate change projection on Annual water Eastern Styria 1,671,000 1,671,000 180,000 savings [m³/year] HYDROLOGY hydrological characteristics of Annual water Eastern Styria 18 18 21 hydrological savings [%] prospects Needed water price ECONOMICS 73 - - need for adaptation increase [%] economic threats for Eastern Styria Total costs [€] - 3,500,000 1,950,000 supply-side adaptive strategies demand-side adaptive strategies *Comparison of demand-side strategies with the supply-side TAKE HOME option of the pipeline (for a 25 percent load of the pipeline ≈ MESSAGE 53 l/s = 1,671,000 m³/year) 17

Take home message

CONTENTS • Climate scenarios show a dark picture of future OUTLINE temperature and precipitation patters in Eastern Styria INTRODUCTION CLIMATOLOGY climate regions • Raising pressure on municipal water suppliers and stations – dynamic concerning higher demand of existing consumers as well downscaling climate change as increased number of connections projection on Eastern Styria • Comparing with supply-side adaptive strategies, HYDROLOGY hydrological characteristics of demand-side options reveal to be insufficient Eastern Styria hydrological • Rough predictions of hydrologists about additional future prospects ECONOMICS water demand in times of peak load is about 200 l/s need for adaptation economic threats Demand-side options are a good contribution, but for Eastern Styria supply-side can not cover expected demands adaptive strategies demand-side Realization of supply-side adaptive strategies adaptive strategies TAKE HOME necessary MESSAGE