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Federal Riding Clusters: June 2021 Update 2 Overview

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Federal Riding Clusters: June 2021 Update 2 Overview Public Opinion Research April to June 2021 Canada This Month Online Survey Federal Riding Clusters: June 2021 Update 2 Overview In Canada, we count seats, not votes. Just like in American Presidential elections, you can win the popular vote and lose the election. In fact, that happened to Justin Trudeau’s father in 1979. The general way analysts address that is to look at seats by region. However, seats in the same region can move differently. This release tries to get closer to reality in the seat-by-seat contest. Our analysis combines: • An analysis of federal electoral districts (“seats”) that groups them into 12 clusters based on a combination of which parties are most competitive in those seats across the last 3 elections and key regional breaks that also influence the party system in Canada. • A merge of the most recent three national surveys that include federal votes, creating an unweighted total of 6,360 respondents and a weighted total of 5,000. In each of our surveys, we collect postal codes. That allows us to assign almost all respondents into ridings and to group their responses by riding. The deck to follow shows the output from the analysis, summarizing where federal vote intention stands in these clusters today, compared to the past 3 elections. Note: Green/Other seat cluster was not reported due to small N-size Current Current data: have maintained at least a10 least at maintained have Tracking Vote Decided Federal 1% 9% 9% 16% 29% 37% Jan-08 n= voters; decided [only slightly? toward lean you do party which case, that In for? vote you would party which today, held were election federal a If June Mar-08 May-08 2021 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 May-09 Jul-09 865 Sep-09 ] Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Conservative Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 May-14 Liberal Sep-14 Dec-14 - Apr-15 Conservatives the lead over point : Jul-15 Between April and June the Liberals April and June the Liberals Between Sep-15 Nov-15 NDP Jan-16 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Bloc Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Aug-17 Green Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Other Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 (2) Oct-19 (2) Jan-20 [DECIDED] Mar-20 May-20 Jun-20 (2) Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 May-21 5% 7 8% 1 2 3 % 7 6 7 % % % 3 4 Federal Vote Seat Clusters 5 The Seat Clusters In Canadian elections, we count seats not votes. For this analysis, we have grouped seats together into clusters where Seat Clusters Seats Weighted Sample Size ridings are similar to one another according to which parties have CPC Strong (Prairies) 44 730 historically been successful there in addition to the region where the CPC Strong (Non-Prairies) 37 529 seat is located. CPC-LPC Swing (Ontario) 30 617 These seat clusters can help us better understand changes in support CPC-LPC Swing (Non-Ontario) 31 492 for parties in ridings which have typically had similar voting behaviour. CPC to LPC Defectors 34 667 Each of these clusters is listed along with the pooled sample size of 42 respondents from each cluster. LPC Strong 852 Consistent NDP 29 704 The core analysis that drives the groups is based on the results in each Swing NDP 28 449 seat across the last three elections. This gives us a picture of the Montreal BQ-LPC Swing 22 445 range of possible outcomes in each seat based on recent elections. Regions BQ-LPC Swing 25 301 The analysis separates out “Strong” seats (won consistently by >10%), Capitale-Nationale + 13 200 while further distinctions are made by specific criteria for each party Chaudière-Appalaches and based on geography. See the Appendix for detailed definitions of each cluster and which ridings they contain. CPC Strong (Prairies): Conservative vote is down substantially in their 6 Prairie base seats, but they still maintain a significant lead Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - Online Survey 26% 45% 18% 4% 7% Consistently very safe Conservative seats in the Prairies across the last three elections. 2019 Election 11% 71% 12% 3% Seats Seats Seats Party Won Won Won 2015 Election 23% 60% 13% 3% 2019 2015 2011* Liberal 0 0 0 2011 Election 7% 68% 19% 5% CPC 44 44 44 NDP 0 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Québécois Green Other *2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts CPC Strong (Non-Prairies): the Conservatives are looking vulnerable in 7 their base seats outside the Prairies Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - 36% 35% 15% 10% Consistently very safe Conservative seats Online Survey outside the Prairies across the last three elections. 2019 Election 27% 48% 15% 8% Seats Seats Seats Party Won Won Won 2015 Election 35% 45% 15% 4% 2019 2015 2011* Liberal 0 0 0 2011 Election 14% 57% 22% 5% CPC 37 37 37 NDP 0 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Québécois Green Other *2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts CPC-LPC Swing (Ontario): In the last two elections the Liberals have 8 won most of these seats, and currently are on track to do the same Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - Seats in Ontario that have consistently Online Survey 41% 34% 14% 8%4% been close – or flipped back and forth – between the Liberals and the Conservatives. 2019 Election 43% 37% 12% 5% Seats Seats Seats Party Won Won Won 2015 Election 45% 40% 12%2% 2019 2015 2011* Liberal 23 25 0 2011 Election 25% 51% 20% 3% CPC 7 5 29 NDP 0 0 1 Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Québécois Green Other *2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts CPC-LPC Swing (Non-Ontario): After a near LPC sweep in 2015, these 9 seats were split in 2019; current vote looks closer to the former Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - Seats outside of Ontario that have 41% 25% 20% 8% 6% Online Survey consistently been close – or flipped back and forth – between the Liberals and the Conservatives. 2019 Election 34% 39% 15% 8% Seats Seats Seats Party Won Won Won 2015 Election 49% 33% 15% 3% 2019 2015 2011* Liberal 14 30 3 2011 Election 21% 51% 23% 5% CPC 17 1 28 NDP 0 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Québécois Green Other *2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts CPC to LPC Defectors: Liberals continue to lead in these seats after a 10 re-alignment between 2011 and 2015 Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - Previously solid Conservative seats that 45% 29% 14% 7%5% Online Survey have flipped to the Liberals from 2015 onwards. 2019 Election 49% 29% 14% 6% Seats Seats Seats Party Won Won Won 2015 Election 54% 31% 12% 2% 2019 2015 2011* Liberal 34 34 0 2011 Election 33% 43% 20% 3% CPC 0 0 34 NDP 0 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Québécois Green Other *2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC Strong: Liberals continue to hold on to most of their 2019 11 support in their traditional strongholds Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - Online Survey 47% 21% 17% 3% 8% The strongest Liberal seats across the last three elections. These seats are unlikely to flip in the next campaign. 2019 Election 52% 21% 15% 2% 8% Seats Seats Seats Party Won Won Won 2015 Election 59% 19% 17% 3% 2019 2015 2011* Liberal 42 42 33 2011 Election 38% 28% 28% 3% CPC 0 0 0 NDP 0 0 9 Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Québécois Green Other *2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Consistent NDP: The Liberals are now leading the NDP by 12-points in 12 this cluster of seats Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - Online Survey 34% 17% 22% 11% 8% 7% The NDP’s most consistent seats, though with some softening of NDP support in 2019. 2019 Election 25% 20% 37% 9% 7% Seats Seats Seats Party Won Won Won 2015 Election 29% 17% 41% 7% 5% 2019 2015 2011* Liberal 5 2 0 2011 Election 11% 26% 50% 9% 4% CPC 1 0 0 NDP 19 27 29 Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc 4 0 0 Bloc Québécois Green Other *2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Swing NDP: Liberal vote is back to a 2015 high in this cluster, while 13 NDP support is at an all-time low Decided Vote from a combined April to June 2021 online survey compared to actual election results between 2011 and 2019 April to June 2021 - Online Survey 41% 21% 25% 9% 4% NDP swing seats over the last 3 elections.
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