Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.)

ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 110 DECEMBER 2007

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 2

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 111 DECEMBER 2007 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, C/- PO Box 68429, Newton, Auckland or [email protected] CONTENTS Page President’s Comments 3 Branch reports 4 Kidson Medal Presentation 5 Rope cloud (by Cliff Revell) 6-8 AGM minutes 9-14 Spring review (NIWA) 14-17 Notable recent weather 18-28 Christchurch weather (Ben) 29 Meteorology in the Press 30-58 Photo competition 59 Weather Crossword 60 Your Committee President Mike Revell [email protected] Immediate Past President Kim Dirks [email protected] Auckland VP Sally Garrett [email protected] Wellington VP Jim Renwick [email protected] Christchurch VP Michael Titov [email protected] Dunedin VP Deborah Hills Secretary Simon Kjellberg [email protected] Treasurer Cliff Revell [email protected] Circulation Manager Rowena Moss [email protected] Journal Editor Brian Giles [email protected] Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt [email protected] Wed Editor Peter Knudsen Peter.Knudsen@metservice.com Hydrological Society Liaison Charles Pearson [email protected] General Committee Stacey Dravitzki [email protected] Katrina Richards [email protected] Sam Dean [email protected] Gareth Renowden Jim Salinger Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the Society.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 3

Presidential Greetings

After a little arm twisting Richard Turner finally convinced me I should take a turn as President of the Met. Society – thanks Richard.

If any of you should notice some similarity with my name and that of the treasurer it is not a coincidence – Cliff is my father. When we both worked at the MetService (actually shared an office for a year!) I needed special permission due to the public service laws that existed then. I presume we don’t to both be Met Society committee members.

I will be relying on the existing committee to remind me what my duties are – please feel free to let me know. I have no particular agendas to push - apart from wanting to see more of our travel done by cycle and public transport, a greater proportion of our energy supply coming from wind and solar power, a better working relationship between NIWA and MetService and more young people joining the Met Society. On this last point I would be happy for members to send in suggestions to make being a member of the society more attractive for younger people.

A few members of the society are making their way to Melbourne for the combined Metsoc/Amos conference at the end of January - I hope they have a pro- ductive meeting.

I hope you all manage to dodge the ex-tropical cyclones this season.

Mike Revell

Dr Michael Revell

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 4 REGIONAL REPORTS Auckland and Wellington

Met Society members were invited to a NIWA seminar held in Auckland on 11 Oc- tober and in Wellington on 12 October, featuring presentations from visiting meteorologists

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Dr. Marina Baldi presented an investigation into temperature and rainfall seasonal anomalies in the Mediterranean and their connection to the large scale features on the Euro-Atlantic. Dr Baldi was on leave from Institute of Biome- teorology (IBIMET – CNR), Rome, Italy. The climate of the Mediterranean is governed by both mid- latitude and tropical dynamics; summers are hot and dry, autumns and winters are wet. In the cold season the westerly flow is relatively strong, and important modes are: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic pattern (EA), and the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia pattern. In the warm season, the Azores high dominates, sometimes strengthened by the West African Monsoon, and the large scale flow is generally weak, with breezes driven by local thermal gradients, with, towards the end of the season, local extreme precipitation episodes. This is the time of the year that the East Mediterranean is under a ridge connected to the Asian monsoon through Rossby waves. Dr. Baldi looked at the role of the Atlantic jet and of the African jet. The Atlantic jet is generated by the thermal contrast between the cold air over the Polar Ocean and the relatively warm air over the Atlantic ocean and crosses this ocean with a north-easterly tilt. The African jet, generated by the thermal contrast between the African warm air and the Euro-Asian relatively cold air, spans from the west coast of North Africa to the Indian ocean.

In the Mediterranean, summers were hot in the 1950s, 1980s, and 1990, and cool from mid 1960s to mid 1970s; cold seasons were very dry in the 1980s and early 1990s, with an almost monotonic decrease of the rainfall since the 1960s. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Planetary waves and climate and other flows by Dr Giovanni Dalu on leave form Institute of Biometeorology (IBIMET CNR), Rome, Italy Planetary waves have a wavelength of thousands of km. They can be stationary or propagate to east or to the west. They are excited by topographic features, SSTs, and by changes of snow coverage. There are important since they act as a wave guide for the perturbations. We are studying the propagation of these perturbations and their transition from the tropics into the mid- latitude, as well as mesoscale flows induced by landscape variability. Land- scape variability decreases the temperature in the surface layer, and gener- ates regions of upward vertical motion and a sizable amount of available potential energy, and can make the environment of the lower troposphere more fa- vorable to cloud formation. This process is enhanced by light ambient wind through the generation of trapped propagating waves.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 5 Dr. Xiaogu Zheng (NIWA) Awarded the 2007 Kidson Medal of the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand

The Meteorological Society of New Zealand has chosen to award its 2007 Kidson Medal to Dr. Xiaogu Zheng of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. The medal was presented at the Royal Society of New Zealand’s Awards Dinner held in Dunedin on November 21 st .

The medal was awarded for Dr. Zheng’s scientific paper “A study of predictable patterns for seasonal forecasting of New Zealand rainfall” published in the Journal of Climate in 2006. The panel considering the nominations for this year’s Kidson medal considered this work to be outstanding in regards to the advancement in science that this work provides. One of the judges commented that “in terms of seriously advancing knowledge and capability on climate forecasting, the paper of Dr Zheng will soon be regarded as a landmark paper, not only for its relevance to New Zealand needs but for most regions in the Southern Hemisphere. It provides remarkable mathematical rigour to the complex world of integrating different components of the climate system.” Dr. and Mrs. Xiaogu Zheng at the presentation ceremony as part of the AGM and International Polar Year seminar held at NIWA in Wellington last November.

The Kidson Medal award is named in honour of Dr Edward Kidson, Director of the New Zealand Meteorological Service from 1927 to 1939. Kidson is credited as the first to place New Zealand meteorology on the sound scientific basis it currently enjoys. His scientific work in meteorology covered a wide field and he had an international reputation for his papers on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. His papers on New Zealand's climate remained standard works for many years. The Edward Kidson medal is awarded to the author of an outstanding paper published in a refereed scientific journal during the preceding three years.

Kim Dirks

President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand, 2007

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Auditor: Our thanks to Alaric Tomlinson who has been able to act as Met Soci- ety auditor over the past seven years in his retirement. We are now looking for a new auditor: someone willing to look over our accounts once a year, in July, and acknowledge that they are a true and complete record of proceedings. If you or someone you know is willing to help the Met Society in this way please let us know with an email to our secretary, [email protected].

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Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 6 'Rope' cloud with a 'Southerly buster' Cliff Revell

Satellite pictures on the afternoon of the 21st Octo- ber 2007 showed a well- defined 'rope' cloud, a long narrow line of cumulus, marking the leading edge of a frontal cloudband over the Southern Ocean. (Fig.1) This feature retained its identity over the next 24 to 36 hours and on the morning of the 22nd extended southeast- ward from about Cape Turna- gain, having moved at an average speed of 40kt.

Fig.1 Visible picture from satellite MTSAT at 1400NZST 21 October 2007 .

The cloud band as a whole had become distorted by the landmass of New Zealand into a typical gull-wing shape. (Fig.2).

Fig. 2 Visible picture from satellite MTSAT at 0900 NZST 22 October 2007.

By mid-afternoon the rope cloud had advanced to a position north of Gisborne and was weakening while becoming separated from the main cloud band, which itself was disintegrating in the New Zealand section (Fig.3).

Cloud lines of this type were first identified in satellite pictures in the late 1960s. An example was described by Seitter and Muench 1985.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 7

Fig. 3 Visible picture from satellite MTSATat 1400NZST on 22 October 2007.

During its passage along the east coast the cloud system was accompanied by a 'southerly buster', a rapid change to a strong southerly wind and associated large rise in barometric pressure. Southerly buster events were intensively studied during SOUCHEX in the late 1980s (Smith et al 1991, Ridley 1990). They found evidence that the occurrence and movement of southerly changes along the east coast are con- trolled largely by synoptic- scale processes through changes in the upper-level winds as a trough approaches in the mean westerly flow. Most, though not all, are associated with a cold front that originates over the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean. In the present case a short-wave trough propagated rapidly through the pattern of very strong west to southwest flow at upper levels over New Zealand

This event is represented in Fig.4, a time section from Invercargill to Hicks Bay, showing plots of surface wind at routine reporting times and isallobars of 3-hour pressure change (not corrected for diurnal variation). At stations where changes were masked by Fohn influences (the prefrontal air was particularly dry in the Canterbury region), there was, at least initially, a rise in dew point as air from a new source arrived. For instance the dew point se- quence at Le Bons Bay, and also at Castlepoint, displayed this characteristic. On the other hand the change at Cape Campbell was more typical of that associated with a cold front passage with dew point falling from the time of the wind change. The change appears to have been particularly strong at exposed coastal locations from Canterbury to Wairarapa. Sustained wind speeds of 45kt were reported at Le Bons Bay and 35kt at Kaikoura while even along the east coast of the North Island sustained winds of 25kt were experienced. It is likely that higher wind speeds occurred at intermediate times. These speeds are comparable with the speed of movement of the change itself.

From the coarse sampling of observations available it is not possible to de- termine the precise relationships among the various features involved but in this instance the rope cloud appears to have been closely associated with the surface wind-shift and pressure-jump line, the surface cold front. The nature and behaviour of surface cold fronts continues to be a subject of study, e.g. Schultz 2005.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 8 Fig. 4 Time cross section from Inver- cargill (NV) to Hicks Bay (HB) during passage of the rope cloud (see text)

GS – Gisborne

NR – Napier

CT – Castlepoint

NG – Ngawi

CC – Cape Campbell

KI – Kaikoura

LB – Le Bons Bay

TU – Timaru

DN – Dunedin

References:

Smith, R. K., R.N. Ridley, M.A. Page, J. T. Steiner, and A.P.Sturman,1991: Southerly Changes on the East Coast of New Zealand. Monthly Weather Review 119, 5, 1259-1282.

Ridley, R.N., 1990: Southerly buster events in New Zealand. Weather and Cli- mate 10, 2, 35-54.

Schultz, D. M., 2005: A review of cold fronts with Prefrontal T roughs and Wind Shifts. Monthly Weather Review 133, 8, 2449-2472.

Seitter, K.L. and H.S. Muench, 1985: Observation of a Cold Front With Rope Cloud. Monthly Weather Review 113, 5, 840-848.

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Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 9 Minutes of the 28th Annual General Meeting of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.) held on Tuesday, November 28th, 2007 at NIWA, Greta Point, Wellington The meeting opened at 4:00 PM

The meeting was chaired by Kim Dirks (President) and the minutes have been written by Simon Kjellberg (Secretary).

1. Attendance Kim Dirks Simon Kjellberg Bob McDavitt Jim Renwick Richard Turner Rupert Wood Andrew Tait John Sansom Helen Power Alan Porteous Antony Gomez Garry DeRose Keith McNaughton Michael Revell Stacey Dravitzki Katrina Richards Sally Garrett Don Thompson Jim Salinger Cliff Revell Sam Dean Rowena Moss

2. Apologies Brian Giles Charles Pearson Mikhail Titov Gareth Renowden Tony Bromley Neil Gordon David Wratt John Hickman John Withington Jim McGregor Peter Knudsen Motion that “the apologies be accepted”. Kim Dirks / Simon Kjellberg - carried.

3. Confirmation of minutes of previous AGM (Kim) Motion that “the minutes of the previous AGM, held at the University of Can- terbury, Christchurch on November 21, 2006, be accepted as read”. Kim Dirks / Jim Renwick - carried.

4. Matters arising from the Last AGM (Kim) Carbon Neutrality The question of how to achieve carbon neutrality at an AGM was referred on to the incoming committee.

Up-coming Conferences There are two in 2008, the first being held jointly with AMOS and AWES in Gee- long, Victoria, starting January 29, in lieu of a 2007 conference for us, and the second being our official 2008 conference, for which there is a proposal to hold it in November, jointly with HydroSoc, in Greymouth NZ. Planning is well advanced for the Geelong conference however the new committee will need to being the planning for the November conference. (See President’s report below for more details.)

Electronic Publishing Kim noted that about this issue (having been debated extensively by the committee in the past as a way of reducing costs) little has been said this year as efforts to improve the circulation of the near monthly e-newsletters (accumulated into the quarterly printed versions) are being dealt with by individual committee members. Following the example of another society Kim be- longs to, she suggested members be invited to tick a box for receiving the newsletter contents only electronically. The new committee will continue to work on this issue.

Comments from the floor noted that the electronic versions were very successful.

5. President’s Report (Kim) It is my pleasure to present the 2007 Annual Report of the Meteorological So- ciety of New Zealand, the 28th report since the founding of the society in 1979.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 10

Summary of Activities The committee has held five bi-monthly teleconference meetings, the same as in the last five years. This year, Auckland held four regional meetings, Welling- ton held four and Dunedin held four. Christchurch held an impressive six, with an additional 17 days of tutorials, 2 ‘open day' events and one field trip. This is a significant increase on recent years. We see the branch meetings as one of our core activities and one of the main opportunities for members who are not able to make it to the AGM to meet up with other members and talk ‘meteorology’. Thanks to our Vice-Presidents Sally Garrett, Jim Renwick, Mik- hail Titov and Helen Power for keeping the branch meetings going. Our membership has dropped by 17 since last year and now stands at 266. The reason for this is something we will need to look into. Rowena Moss, our Circulation Man- ager spent a considerable amount of time this year chasing post codes for the membership. Note also that our post box has been changed to Marion Square rather than Te Aro.

Newsletter/Website This year, Bob McDavitt, our long-standing Newsletter Editor, has continued with the electronic versions of the newsletter, along with the printed and posted version. Newsletter emails are being sent out about once a month with the printed versions the usual four times per year. This seems to be going pretty smoothly thanks to Bob’s efforts. The electronic versions are good for disseminating information quickly, however, there are undoubtedly still some members who still have limited or no access to the internet and require printed versions. This is also the case for institutional members. The issue of electronic publishing and fees is something that will need to be dealt with by the incoming committee.

Our web pages continue to be maintained thanks to the efforts of our webmaster Peter Knudsen.

Journal Over the last year, Brian Giles, our journal Editor has been keeping Weather and Climate up to date. At this stage there are two papers and a book review for the 2008 issue but he is seeking more contributions. If you have something you would like to submit, I am sure Brian would welcome it. The one outstanding issue for the journal is that of copyright. It is generally understood that when an author gets an article published in a journal, the copyright is transferred from the author to the organization, upon publication of the article. However, a formal copyright transfer agreement has never been put in place for our journal. We are in the process of putting together a copyright transfer agreement to suit our needs and remove this ambiguity. Brian will be working on getting a document in place during 2008. We have also de- cided to move towards an A4 size journal, instead of the current ‘unusual’ size. The motivation for this is a considerably reduction in the publishing costs associated with production at a ‘standard’ size.

Upcoming Conferences The 2007 conference is being held in Melbourne on Jan 29th-1st Feb 2008, jointly with AMOS and AWES, the Australasian Wind Engineering Society. The plan at this stage is the hold the 2008 conference jointly with the New Zea- land Hydrological society, this time tentatively planned for Greymouth in No- vember. Charles Pearson will be involved in the organization for this conference for the Hydrological Society and is seeking volunteers to be on the organizing committee from the Meteorological society side. If you are keen, please let the society or Charles know as we would welcome your input.

The International Conference of Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanogra- phy (ICSHMO) will be held in Melbourne 9-13 February, 2009. Howard Diamond of

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 11 NOAA will be organizing this conference. He visited New Zealand earlier in the year and presented seminars across the country, including several for our society.

Earlier this year, a NZ-Australian bid was put in to host the 2011 IUGG Gen- eral Assembly in Melbourne which was successful. The Society was thanked (by Des Darby) for its strong letter of support, along with those of the GSNZ, NZGS, NZHS, NZMSS, and RASNZ, which supplemented letters from the Prime Minis- ters of both Australia and New Zealand.

Kidson Medal On November 20th of this year, our Dunedin Vice-President Dr. Helen Power presented the Society’s Third Edward Kidson Medal to Dr. Xiaogu Zheng of NIWA, for his co-authored paper "A study of predictable patterns for seasonal forecasting of New Zealand rainfall", published in the Journal of Climate in 2006. The judging panel considering this year’s nominations were unanimous in their decision to recommend Dr. Zheng for the award. His work was considered to be outstanding in regards to the advancement in science that it provides. One of the judges commented that “in terms of seriously advancing knowledge and capability on climate forecasting, the paper of Dr Zheng will soon be regarded as a landmark paper, not only for its relevance to New Zealand needs but for most regions in the Southern Hemisphere. It provides remarkable mathematical rigour to the complex world of integrating different components of the climate system.” Dr. Zheng is congratulated for his fine achievement.

Hydrology Summer School The Hydrological Society Summer School is a joint venture of the Hydrological Society of New Zealand and our Society, initiated mainly by Paul White. This summer school is aimed at raising an interest in Hydrology amongst High School students. The course ran successfully last year and will be running again later this year. Our Committee member Katrina Richards contributes her expertise to this course. Thank you Katrina.

Photo competition Following the success of the last photo competition in 2005, a new competition is being run, with the deadline for submissions being June 30, 2008. As of last week there were no entries but we hope to see plenty as the deadline approaches. A judging committee has been put in place to consider the submissions.

The Future I would like to finish by thanking all of the 2006/2007 committee members for their efforts this year. In particular I would like to thank Simon Kjellberg, our Secretary, and Richard Turner, our immediate Past Present. It has been very useful to be able to seek advice from you two and to know that you will step in when needed. Also thanks are due to Cliff Revel for keeping our fi- nances in good order. I am better at spending money than saving it so the healthy financial state of the society is mainly due to Cliff’s efforts. The workshop and AGM details for today were sorted out mainly by Jim Renwick, Sta- cey Dravitzki, Sam Dean, Richard Turner and Rowena Moss. Thank you to all of you for your efforts. As many of the Meteorological Society events are held in Wellington, we tend to lean significantly on the committee members in that region in the organising department. This hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Over the years the membership of the society has slowly decreased. This could be due to a decrease in the number of people entering the field or because of easier access to the Society’s publications via institutional membership. It could also be because there hasn’t been much effort going into recruiting new members. Perhaps the new committee could look into some new ways to raise the profile of the society and make it more attractive to people entering the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 12 field. Perhaps a new prize could be introduced, aimed at Young Meteorologists with membership of the society being one of the criteria. The prize could be free registration at the following Annual Conference and maybe a ‘Keynote’ presentation? The committee also needs to continue to think about possible candidates for honorary membership as our last one was made quite a few years back.

In 2000, Alex Neale put together a comprehensive document on the history of the Society since its founding in 1979. It has now been seven years since this document has been updated and I am thinking it may be time for this to be done. At the risk of giving myself another job, I wonder if it would be help- ful if it could be one of the tasks of the immediate Past President to update this document with the significant events that have occurred during those Presidencies. This would ensure that we would continue to have an up-to-date document as a valuable historical document for the benefit of the membership.

All the best to the incoming committee for 2008. Kim Dirks President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (2007)

Cliff noted that Alex Neale’s document on the history of the Society, 21 years after it’s founding, has never been published in print. Bob McDavitt moved a vote of thanks to Kim - seconded by Katrina Richards and carried.

6. Annual Report from the Treasurer (Cliff) Meteorological Society of New Zealand Inc. Cliff Revell presented the Annual audited accounts, as published in the Sep- tember newsletter. Cliff also presented a historical summary and budget: Year a.s. Subs Int C&M Misc Total | Jnrl Newsltr C&M Misc Total | Net+/- 04/05 25+9501 1390 — 1600 12491 | 7764 4476 232 3274 15746 | -3255 05/06 25+ 7971 1686 1478 1822 12957 | 5428 3486 - 5863 14777 | -1820 06/07 25+ 8221 1846 9924 2012 22003 | 12197 5267 97 3701 21262 | +741 (8500)(1600)(-) (3600)(13700)|(12800)(5000) (-)(3000)(20800)|(-7100) 07/08 30+ 9000 1700 — 1600 12300 | 5000 4000 - 3000 12000 | +300 08/09 35+ 10000 1600 — 1600 13200 | 6000 4500 - 4000 14500 | -1300

*Assumes 1 journal (Vol 29) and 4 newsletters published and continued support of Metservice. Miscellaneous expenditure includes contingency fund for website, travel & awards expenses as well as RSNZ fee and teleconferences. Cliff explained that, in the historical summary and budget, the bracketed figures under the figures for 06/07 were the budgeted figures for this financial year; the key differences with the actual figures being the nearly $10,000 windfall profit from the previous conference and the reduced income from subscriptions due to falling membership. The 07/08 figures are based on those available in November 2006 and should now be closer to the 08/09 figures. The heavily rounded figures reflect a surprisingly wide range of uncertainty in the budgeted expenses and receipts for such a small organisation. This raises the question of whether we want to continue relying on windfall profits from conferences or use this money for doing extra things. A recommended subscription for the next financial year of $35 for individual members and $105 for institutional members. will bring us back to where we were about nine years ago.

Jim Salinger noted that it’s now generally accepted that conferences should return a profit and drew attention to a recent change in NIWA’s CEO, raising the possibility of a change in policy towards support for this society. This could mean an annual grant, in line with the policy of the MetService, verses subscription subsidies being paid to individual NIWA members.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 13

It was moved and passed “that the Annual Accounts, finacial report and historical summary and budget be accepted” Cliff Revell / John Sansom

7. Subscription Rate (Kim) After some clarification of the figures presented by Cliff and related poli- cies (safe investments and membership cancellation after 2 years non-payment), Simon raised the suggestion that the society set the fee for non-members attending conferences where we have a say in this, to something like $20 more so we can offer this as a discount to members, including those who join on the spot. Following some agreement from the floor, Kim suggested that we put this to the organisers of our 2008 conference in Greymouth.

Motion “that the subscription rates for the next financial year be raised to $35 for ordinary members and $105 for institutional members.” Kim Dirks / Rupert Wood – carried unanimously.

8. Election of Officers (Richard) The floor was then passed over to Richard Turner, as Immediate Past President, to carry out the Election of Officers.

The following nominations for Officers of the Society for 2007/2008 were made:

President Michael Revell Auckland VP Sally Garrett Wellington VP Jim Renwick Christchurch VP Mikhail Titov Dunedin VP (vacated by Helen Power for 1 year)** Secretary Simon Kjellberg Treasurer Cliff Revell Journal Editor Brian Giles Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt Circulation Manager Rowena Moss Webmaster Peter Knudsen HydroSoc Liaison Charles Pearson General Committee: Sam Dean, Stacey Dravitzki, Katrina Richards Gareth Renowden Jim Salinger Kim Dirks (as Immediate Past President)

There being no other nominations, it was moved that nominations be closed. Richard Turner / Rowena Moss

Richard declared the above nominees duly elected. **Deborah Mills has since been approached by the new committee and accepted an invitation to be appointed as our Dunedin VP

Finally Bob raised a motion of thanks Richard Turner, now retiring from the committee. - Carried.

9. Other matters (Kim) Increasing Membership It has become clear that the membership has been declining over the years and perhaps it was time that something should be done about it. Simon commented on suggestions that declining membership may be due to a lack of any specific membership drives in recent times. It was suggested that perhaps the incoming

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 14 committee could look at applying a surcharge (of at least the membership rate) to those attending that are not members of the Society.

Annual conference It was suggested that annual conferences held overseas were very problematic for our membership because of the difficulty of many (especially those em- ployed by NIWA) to secure funds to be able to attend. Effort should be made for the next joint conference with AMOS to have them come to New Zealand. It was also suggested that a climate change theme was long overdue and should be considered for an upcoming conference in the near future.

Media Awards It was noted that the media awards are a good opportunity to raise the profile of the society and that we should continue the tradition of holding these every two years or so. The Newspaper is next on the list of media types to be judged. Bob said that the next round of media awards would be something to be looking into by the incoming committee.

Remembrance of Augie Auer One of New Zealand’s foremost meteorologists, Augie Auer died unexpectedly earlier this year so, in his honour, one minute’s silence was observed by all.

With no other business put forward, the meeting was declared closed at 5:02PM.

Climate Summary for Spring 2007 Very windy mid spring, dry with significant soil moisture deficits at the end of the season • Sunshine: One of the sunniest springs on record in Horowhenua, Wellington, Marlborough, and Nelson • Rainfall: Below or near normal throughout New Zealand • Soil moisture: Significant deficits in many regions at the end of the season • Temperature: Near average everywhere Spring 2007 was a mixed bag! The season started with snowfall to low levels in the east of the South Island, followed by one of the windiest Octobers on record, and ended with a very dry November. The season was one of the sunniest on record in Horowhenua, Wellington, Marl- borough, and Nelson. It was also sunnier than normal in many areas from Can- terbury to Southland. Rainfall was below normal in many North Island regions, as well as much of Marlborough, Nelson, and along the south Canterbury to North Otago coast, and near normal elsewhere. Significant soil moisture deficits developed toward the end of October in parts of Marlborough and Central Otago and spread to Nelson and Canterbury in November. Significant deficits also developed in November in Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wanganui, and Wellington. Mean temperatures were near average throughout the whole of New Zealand. The national average temperature of 11.9°C was 0.2°C below normal. The overall spring climate pattern was dominated by more anticyclones in the Tasman Sea, with ridging extending over central New Zealand, producing more southerly quarter airflow than normal (although weak) over much of the country. Major Highlights • The lowest air temperature during spring was -6.0ºC recorded at Fairlie on 6 September and Hanmer on the 7 September. The highest temperature recorded during the spring was 32.8 °C recorded at Blenheim Airport on 25 November.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 15

• There were relatively few high rainfall events – the worst being rainfall totalling 102 mm at Kaitaia on 19 September, surface flooding in the Hutt Val- ley on 7 October, and an overflow of the Waiau River (in North Canterbury) on 8 October after days of rainfall. Heavy rainfall occurred in the central North Island, with 30 mm recorded at Ohakune in an hour on 17 October. • Snowfall occurred to low levels in the east of the South Island on 4 Sep- tember, and occurred in many high country areas over 2–7 October, 10–11, 14– 15, and 17–18 October. • Gale force events on 4 and 23 October resulted in fallen trees, broken power lines, and difficulty for motorists, in several regions of the country. Wind gusts over 130 km/h were recorded on 13 days in October. Of the five main centres, Auckland was the warmest, Wellington the wettest and sunniest, Christchurch the driest, and Dunedin the coolest this spring. Rainfall Spring rainfall was below normal in many North Island regions, including Wai- kato, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Taupo, Taranaki, and Hawke’s Bay, as well as much of Marlborough, Nelson, and along the south Canterbury to North Otago coast. Rainfall was near normal elsewhere. Temperature Seasonal mean temperatures were near average throughout the whole of New Zea- land. Sunshine Spring sunshine hours were above normal in Manawatu, Horowhenua, Wellington and much of the north and east of the South Island from Nelson to Southland, and near normal elsewhere. Full details of the Spring 2007 Climate Summary For further information, please contact: Dr Jim Salinger – Principal Scientist, Climate NIWA National Climate Centre – Auckland Phone +64 9 375 2053 [email protected] Stuart Burgess – Climatologist NIWA National Climate Centre – Wellington Phone +64 4 386 0569 [email protected] Geoff Baird – Communications Manager Phone +64 4 386 0543 [email protected] Acknowledgement of NIWA as the source is required.

September 2007

Rainfall: Below normal in many areas, near or above normal in the parts of Northland, east of the North Island, parts of Otago and Fiordland.

Temperature: Above average in the north of the North Island, and parts of the South Island.

Sunshine: Above average in the south west of the North Island, western and inland

Wind: Less wind than normal

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 16 OCTOBER 2007 CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS

UNSETTLED WITH FREQUENT SPRING GALES

Very sunny with above average temperatures

-6 C Waiouru 4 Oct

Very sunny with above average temperatures

Above average rainfall and below average temperatures Frequent NW gales over much of the South Island

High rainfall 30 Oct Frequent NW gales 27C Timaru 30 Oct

Very sunny

Frequent W gales

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 17 NOVEMBER 2007 CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS

SUNNY WITH LOW RAINFALL SEVERE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS IN MARLBOROUGH AND CENTRAL OTAGO SIGNIFICANT SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS IN SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS

Hot spell 20-26 November Very dry conditions with near or record high - low soil moisture maximum temperatures:

Bay of Plenty, Nelson, and eastern regions of both islands

Very dry conditions - low soil moisture Very sunny

Very dry conditions - low soil moisture 33 C Blenheim 25 Nov

Very dry conditions Very sunny - low soil moisture

-3 C Lauder Very dry conditions 6 Nov - low soil moisture

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 18 NOTABLE WEATHER IN NEW ZEALAND - SPRING 2007

This season was memorable for some very stormy weather in October, including severe gales and heavy rain in places. September and November were more settled, with lack of rain becoming a concern for some areas by the end of the season.

SEPTEMBER

# 1st - 20C+ maximums in eastern areas. (23C maximum in Kaikoura) Heavy rain in Fiordland. (107mm recorded at Milford Sound) Northwesterly gales about Cook Strait.

# 2nd - 21C maximum in Gisborne, before cooler southerly change in late afternoon.

# 3rd - Heavy rain in Fiordland and Westland, easing early on 4th. 120mm recorded at East Homer; 152mm at Waiho.

# 4th - Northwesterly winds gust up to 135kph at Castlepoint. Very cold southerly over South Island, with snow to low levels in many eastern areas. Several centimetres blanket the Canterbury plains as low as about 100 metres, with 6- 8cm recorded in some places. Geraldine and Ashburton are briefly dusted, while snow flurries are reported at Christchurch Airport. Traffic disrupted for a time on Dunedin's northern motorway.

# 5th - Cold southerlies spread over North Island, with some snow showers on the high country, but not enough to disrupt travel. Brief snow at summit of Rimutaka Hill Road about midafternoon.

# 6th - Widespread heavy frosts in wake of cold southerly outbreak. -6C minimum in Fairlie and Hanmer Forest; -8C frost at Dunedin Airport. Only 9C maximum in Taupo.

# 7th - More heavy frosts in parts of South Island, eg -11C grass minimum at Mt Cook Village.

# 9th - Deep low results in heavy rain in northeastern North Island (Northland to East Cape), with severe easterly gales in far north. 56mm recorded at Cape Reinga; 57mm in Whangarei; 43mm in Kaeo.

# 10th - Heavy rain and southerly gales lash Gisborne/East Cape area, as low moves to east.

# 11th - Frosty dawn in some inland parts of South Island, eg another -11C frost at Mt Cook Village.

# 12th - 20C maximum in Alexandra in a northerly flow.

# 13th - Heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps and in the Tararuas. 73mm recorded at Arthurs Pass; 202mm at Waiho; 120mm at Angle Knob.

# 15th - 22C maximums in Alexandra and Kaitaia; 22C maximum in Gisborne. Some heavy rain in Westland, eg 80mm at Waiho in 9 hours.

# 16th - Warm 20C+ maximums in eastern areas and the far north. 24C maximum in Kaikoura and 23C in Gisborne.

# 17th - Another warm 23C maximum in Gisborne. A sunny 21C maximum in Alexan- dra, but Invercargill reaches only 10C under a cool southwesterly flow.

# 18th - A warm, humid northerly flow results in 20-22C maximum from Thames and Auckland northwards.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 19 # 19th - Warm day in North Island under a northeasterly flow, with 20C maximums in several places (eg Hamilton, Auckland, New Plymouth, and Palmerston North) This airstream brings heavy rain to Northland, eg 102mm in Kaikohe. Chilly start to the day in many lower South Island areas, eg Dunedin Airport has -2C minimum (-5C frost), though it rises to a mild 17C there in afternoon.

# 20th - Unseasonable 23C maximum in Kapiti; 24C at Wanganui Airport. (September record) 22C maximums in Kaitaia and Alexandra. Dunedin Airport reaches 19C, rising from a -2C minimum. Cave system at Waipu, Northland floods as result of recent heavy rain, resulting in six teenagers having to be rescued.

# 21st - Areas of low cloud and fog about east coast of South Island. (Christchurch Airport operations affected for a time in morning) This keeps Kaikoura from reaching no higher than 11C. By contrast, Blenheim and Kapiti bask in warm 21C maximums.

# 22nd - Some thunderstorms in Northland and northern parts of Auckland region. Warm spell continues in southwest of North Island under fohn northeasterly flow, with 20C maximums in Palmerston North and Kapiti. 21C maximum in Ashburton.

# 23rd - 20-21C maximums in many northern and eastern parts of North Island, but colder southerlies over much of South Island with fresh snow on the mountains. (about 10cm on ski-fields)

# 24th - Scattered afternoon thunder and hail storms in north of North Island (especially in Auckland, Waikato, and Rotorua), resulting from a combination of 18-20C maximums and an unstable airmass. Waterspout reported off the coast near Tauranga. 21C maximum in Gisborne. Contrasts in South Island between east and west, with a drizzly 9C maximum in Ashburton but a sunny 18C in Greymouth.

# 25th - Cold in east of South Island under a southerly flow, with maximums only about 10C in many places. Snow and sleet on Dunedin hills in evening. By contrast, sunny on the West Coast, with maximums in the high teens.

# 26th - Cold southerly flow over NZ with 8-10C maximums in Canterbury and 10C in Masterton. Snow showers on eastern ranges of North Island, and light falls reported to low levels in North Canterbury, eg near Amberley.

# 27th - Frosty morning in many areas, eg -3C minimum in Waiouru and -2C in Blenheim. (frost fighting measures used to protect Malborough orchards)

# 28th - Frosty morning again in many places, eg -4C minimum in Waiouru and - 5C frost at Dunedin Airport. However, 21C maximums in Alexandra and Hanmer as northerly flow develops over South Island.

# 29th - Warm 22C maximum in Lyttleton. Heavy rain develops on South Island West Coast.

# 30th - Heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps. (402mm recorded at Waiho over two day period) Some thundery downpours in Taranaki. 20-22C maximums in east of South Island.

OCTOBER

# 1st - Northwesterly gales for a time in inland Canterbury. Thunderstorms in many northern and western areas (including Auckland, with hail - lightning strikes house in Rodney district); also in parts of Otago (plus brief hail in Canterbury) in afternoon.

# 2nd-4th - Stormy period no.1. (see details below)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 20 # 7th-11th - Stormy period no.2 (see details below)

# 14th-18th - Stormy period no.3 (see details below)

# 19th - Unseasonably heavy morning frosts in many areas in wake of previous day's cold outbreak, eg -7C frost at Christchurch Airport. Some damage to vines in Malborough.

# 20th - More frosts in many parts of North Island, eg -4C minimum in Waiouru. Frost damage to crops in Hawkes Bay.

# 23rd-24th - Stormy period no.4, with damaging gales in places (see details below)

# 25th - Further gales about far southern coasts. (53 knot gust in Invercar- gill), slowing the recovery efforts from previous day's storms. A frosty dawn in many South Island places, but warming up quickly (eg 24C maximums in Oamaru and Timaru) as a westerly flow redevelops.

# 26th/27th - Cold southerlies move onto far south late on 26th and affect eastern areas the next day. Some hail about Banks Peninsula, and light snow showers about some South Island high country areas.

# 28th - Morning frosts in many areas.

# 30th - Warm in eastern areas in a northwesterly flow, eg 27C maximum in Lyt- tleton and Timaru Airport, and 26C maximum in Oamaru. Heavy rain in Fiordland, eg 182mm at Milford Sound.

NOVEMBER

# 4th/5th - Heavy rain in parts of central NZ and central North Island exposed to northwest, eg Tararuas. (160mm at Angle Knob)

# 5th - Cold southwesterly flow over South Island, with snow showers reaching fairly low levels in Southland and South Otago. (eg flurries in Clinton)

# 6th - Frosty start to day in parts of South Island in wake of cold southwet- serly. -3C at Lauder.

# 10th - About 30mm rain in Opotiki from an overnight downpour.

# 11th - A few afternoon thunderstorms about inland high country areas of North Island and upper South Island.

#11th/12th - Heavy rain in Fiordland. (75-90mm) Heavy overnight rain on Ker- madec Islands. (150mm in six hours at Raoul Island)

# 12th-14th - Cold snap with gales in North Island. (see details below)

# 18th - Warm 29C maximum in Hanmer.

# 20th - Warm day in many inland parts of South Island, eg 31C maximum in Al- exandra (highest November maximum since 1986) and 30C maximum in Hanmer.

# 21st - Very warm maximums again in many eastern parts of South Island, eg 32C maximum in Hanmer; 31C in Alexandra (again!); 30C in Ashburton and Blen- heim.

# 22nd - 30C maximums in Napier and Hastings.

# 23rd - 29C maximum in Wairoa (2nd highest recorded for November)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 21 # 24th - Summery 27C maximum in Nelson. Heavy rain in the far north closes the road to Cape Reinga for a time.

# 25th - November record 33C maximum in Blenheim. 28C maximum at Tauranga Air- port (equal 2nd highest for month since 1913); 32C in Kawerau; 29C in Motueka. Temperatures reach high 20s in Canterbury, but a cool southerly change in afternoon sends thermometers plummeting, eg Christchurch drops 5C in two minutes, then 12C in 50 minutes!

# 26th - November record 27C maximum in Te Puke.

# 27th - Cold southerly spreads over South Island. Some hail in the south (eg Invercargill) and snow showers on the ranges.

# 30th - Some afternoon thunderstorms in central North Island, spreading to coastal Bay of Plenty by evening. (some surface flooding in Tauranga) Only 12C maximum in Timaru, due to cloudy onshore airflow.

MAJOR EVENTS # 2nd-4th October - Stormy period no.1.

An active cold front moved onto the South Island on the 2nd, preceded by a northwesterly flow over the country. There had already been several days of unsettled weather to mostly western areas over the previous three days (see notes above), and during this day thunderstorms continued in western areas, while heavy rain fell in Fiordland, eg 60mm at Milford Sound in 12 hours. Cold southerlies spread onto the South Island in the evening, with snow lowering on the high country.

A cold south to southwest blast swept over the rest of NZ on the 3rd, with 9- 10C maximums in many eastern South Island places and 11C maximums in Masterton and Taupo. Snow fell to low levels in Otago and Southland; vehicles were stuck on Lindis Pass in early morning and the Milford Road was closed by snow and avalanche risk. Hail and sleet were reported in Christchurch, while southerly gales lashed the east coast of South Island. Snow showers also affected the central North Island, including the Desert Road, but not enough to cause disruption. Meanwhile, hail showers peppered the north of the North Island.

The flow died out that night with frosts in some areas (-6C minimum in Waiouru), worrying orchardists. (especially in Hawkes Bay and Malborough) How- ever, a northwesterly flow soon arrived in morning, quickly raising temperatures in eastern areas. (by afternoon many places are as much as 10C warmer than the day before!) However, it remained cold about and west of the South Island main divide, as a new frontal system moved in and brought heavy rain to West Coast. (125mm fell at Waiho) Heavy snow fell about the high country, dis- rupting travel on southern passes. The Milford Road remained closed due to avalanche danger, while chains were essential on the Haast Pass. Wanaka shiv- ered on only 3C at 1pm. The northwesterlies rose to gale in inland Canterbury and also Wellington and Wairarapa (78 knot gust at Castlepoint; 75 knot on Mt Kaukau), causing some damage.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 22 Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZDT 2nd October to midday NZDT 4th October in 12 hour steps are shown here.

# 7th-11th October - Stormy period no.2

A frontal system approached the South Island from the west in the early hours of the 7th, rapidly increasing the northwesterly flow preceding it. Gales caused some damage in Canterbury (eg a roof blown of at LeBons Bay) overnight and early morning, and further north about Malborough, Wellington, and Waira- rapa during the day. However, these warm northwesterlies also pushed the ther-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 23 mometer up to 27C in Hastings and 25C in Napier. Meanwhile, heavy rain about and west of the mountains in the northern South Island and about the Tararuas pushed rivers to flood levels. Waiau township (North Canterbury) had to be temporarily evacuated due to the rising waters of the Waiau River.

The frontal system became slow moving over the North Island through to the 8th. Heavy rain and thunderstorms continued about central NZ, along with northwesterly gales.

On the 9th, a low formed in the northern Tasman Sea, pushing moist air back down onto the North Island in a northerly flow. This low then moved to the west of central NZ, where it remained until finally moving away to the southeast of the South Island by the 12th. Heavy rain continued about central areas, with 106mm recorded at Tunakino (Malborough). Many rivers were at high flood levels as a result of all this persistent rain. Cloud cover and an onshore flow also suppressed maximum temperatures in the northeast of the South Island, with chilly 11C maximums in Blenheim and Kaikoura on the 10th. In Hawkes Bay, hail was reported on the Takapau Plains on the 11th.

Mean sea-level analyses for midnight NZDT 6th October to midday NZDT 11th Oc- tober in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 24

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 25 # 14th-18th October - Stormy period no.3

A deep low crossed to the southeast of the South Island on the 14th. West- erly gales lashed many parts of northern and central NZ. (northwesterly about Cook Strait) Gusts to 130kph were recorded in the Ruahine Ranges and 70 knots at Manukau Heads. Trees were felled on the Takapau Plains. Further south, a period of southerly gales affected coastal Otago.

Another trough quickly crossed NZ on the 15th, with yet more westerly gales in the southeast of the North Island.

On the 16th, the flow tended northwesterly over the country and strengthened. Gales affected some inland South Island areas as well as the south of North Island, eg 76 knot gusts on Mt Kaukau. A motorcyclist was blown off road near Woodville. Heavy rain fell about and west of the Southern Alps and on the Ta- raruas, eg 180mm at Cropp, 160mm at Arthurs Pass and at Angle Knob. Canter- bury's main rivers reached 6 month high flows by next morning.

During the 17th, an active trough moved onto NZ. Heavy rain continued about central NZ and the central North Island. 72mm was recorded in Ohakune up to 9am next morning; 30mm falling in one hour from 10-11am on 17th) Northwesterly gales in Hawkes Bay resulted in Napier Airport being closed for a time in the morning. Cold southerlies spread over the South Island in afternoon, with snow falling on the southern hills.

The trough crossed North Island on the 18th, with some thunder and hail, especially in northern areas. A tornado was reported near Reporoa in afternoon. A cold south to southeast flow gradually spread over island, with some snow to the high country by evening, including the Desert Road. (which remained open) Heavy rain from thunderstorms lashed the Gisborne area in late afternoon and evening. In the South Island, the wintry southerly flow gradually died out, after giving early snow to about 300m in Southland, Otago, and inland Canter- bury. About 6cm snow coated parts of the Mackenzie Country with a light dusting also in Fairlie.

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZDT 14th October to midnight NZDT 18th Oc- tober in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 26

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 27 # 23rd-24th October - Stormy period no.4, with damaging gales in places

A deep depression passed to the south of South Island during the 23rd, with a cold front crossing NZ. Combined with high pressure to the north of the North Island, this resulted in tight isobaric gradients over the country. Ahead of the front, northwesterly gales affected eastern areas and central NZ. Southern Hawkes Bay was severely lashed by these winds with much damage, including roofs lifted in Dannevirke and trucks blown over.

After the front had passed, severe west to southwest gales blasted coastal Southland and Otago, with extensive damage there, including power cuts and fallen trees. Gusts up to 76 knots were recorded on Stewart Island, while Gore reached 53 knots and Dunedin Airport 63 knots.

The low had moved well to the east by evening and so the airflow decreased and winds eased. However, more fronts arrived the next day, with west or northwest gales again in eastern areas and southwesterly gales in the far south following the fronts. While generally not as severe as the previous day (though a 66 knot gust was recorded in Invercargill), the winds were still disruptive to clean-up efforts. A 12 year old girl was killed in Christchurch when a westerly gust blew her into the path of an oncoming bus.

To add to the chaos, in Southland the winds were accompanied by squally thunderstorms with hail. These storms also affected Otago and then spread into parts of Canterbury in the afternoon. Christchurch was hit in the early evening, with power cuts in some rural areas near the city.

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZDT 23rd October to midday NZDT 24th Octo- ber in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 28

# 12th-14th November - Cold snap with gales in North Island.

The last bout of stormy weather for the season resulted from an active trough crossing NZ, bringing a cold southerly outbreak with high country snow and severe southerly gales to exposed parts of the North Island.

The trough arrived in the South Island late on the 12th, with several fronts approaching from the southwest. During the 13th, as the trough moved northeast, cold southerlies spread over the island. Scattered thunderstorms and hail came with the change, a waterspout sweeping in from the sea near Birdling's Flat (Canterbury) in the afternoon during a particularly heavy thunderstorm. Another big thunderstorm hit Wellington late that evening as the southerly arrived there.

By the next day, a deep low had formed on the trough to the east of central NZ, resulting in a strong cold southerly flow over most of the country. South to southwest gales lashed the North Island, being severe in some exposed places, especially about Wellington and eastern coasts. Gusts of up to 74 knots were recorded on Mt Kaukau and Kelburn gusted to 56 knots. Cook Strait ferries were disrupted by high seas. In Auckland, the Skytower had gusts up to 52 knots. Snow fell on the high country of both islands; in the central North Island it fell as low as Waiouru for a time in early morning and the Desert Road was hazardous for a while. The flow gradually eased during the day, but temperatures remained well below normal, eg reaching only 11C in Ashburton.

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZDT 12 November to midday NZDT 14th Novem- ber in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 29 CHRISTCHURCH WEATHER - SPRING 2007 by Ben Tichborne

SEPTEMBER

Temperatures varied greatly this month, but there wasn't much wet weather. The most significant weather of note was the cold outbreak early in the month. This brought very cold southerlies to Canterbury on the 4th, with snow to low levels on the Canterbury Plains; flurries reaching the outskirts of Christ- church (including the Airport) and the Port Hills, but not settling. Showers and sleet cleared from the city the next morning. More cold southerlies occurred from the 23rd-27th, but these gave no more than some light rain and drizzle to Christchurch, though light snow and hail fell to low levels further north (eg near Amberley) on the 26th. Generally, the weather was relatively settled for the time of year, with some frosty nights but also some warm days, when there were northerly or northwesterly flows.

OCTOBER

This was an unsettled month, with a seemingly endless series of troughs and fronts crossing over. Temperatures varied greatly, with cold southerly changes alternating with some spells warmer west or northwesterlies. The northwesterlies reached gale in the early hours of the 7th, and were strong and gusty on some other occasions. The coldest outbreaks were on the 2nd/3rd and 18th, with some hail (and sleet on 3rd) in Christchurch and snow on higher hills of Banks Peninsula. Hail also fell on the outer peninsula on the 27th. During the brief fine spells, nights were often cold with some frosts, that of the 19th being particularly heavy for the time of year.

NOVEMBER

This month was considerably more settled than October. While it was still changeable (and cold at times) during the first half, the second half was generally sunny and much warmer. It was cold and showery with a southerly on the 5th, but the southerly outbreak of the 13th/14th was more significant. Scat- tered thunder and hail affected some areas (especially Banks Peninsula) with the change on the afternoon of the 13th, with a waterspout coming ashore on Kaitorete Spit. (Lake Ellesmere) Showers and scattered hail continued through to the following afternoon, with snow dusting the higher hills of the peninsula.

By contrast, conditions felt summery at times later in the month (though there was a brief cold, wet southerly change late on the 27th), with maximums reaching into the high 20s on a few days and even warmer inland. This was due to westerly flows combined with warming sunshine.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 30

Better weather forecasts promised The Dominion Post | Monday, 1 October 2007 An automated weather station fitted to Pacifica Shipping's Spirit of Competition, which plies New Zea- land's coastal waters six nights a week, is helping the MetService improve the quality of its land and marine forecasts. The weather station sends wind, temperature and barometric data every 60 seconds to the MetService via a Vodafone connection. Previously, a manual report on weather conditions was transmitted at midnight by the ship's crew on each 12-hour voyage between Lyttelton and Wellington. Julie Fletcher, the MetService's manager of marine observations, says adapting land-based automatic weather stations for use at sea presented some technical challenges. "The wind speed and direction data, for example, have to be corrected for the ship's course and speed under changing conditions." She says MetService would like to put automated weather stations on other coastal vessels to improve marine forecasts. Rod Grout, the chief executive of Pacifica Shipping, says the company was pleased to provide its 5000 tonne vessel for the weather station and be would happy to volunteer its other ship, Spirit of Resolution, which sails off the west coast of the North Island. "Our ships' masters and officers have provided weather information manually for the past 22 years and the new system relieves them of some responsibilities," he says. "However, they will continue to send manual observations of sea swell, cloud cover and visibility, as these conditions are not recorded by the automatic station."

La Nina promises warm summer The Dominion Post | Monday, 1 October 2007 Viva La Nina - the start of the golden weather for summer is being heralded, with a warmer and drier climate predicted till the end of the year. Just in time for daylight saving, which began yesterday, Niwa said it was forecasting above-average temperatures for the last three months of the year, maybe even lasting through till the end of summer. This is because weak La Nina conditions have developed in the equatorial Pacific, creating weaker westerly winds, with more winds from the east and northeast. Forecasters say there is a 50-50 chance that the warm weather will linger through to summer's end. Though sun-worshippers are unlikely to notice, the weather pattern also slightly reduces the chance of former tropical cyclones affecting New Zealand. But though the golden weather is on the way, Kiwis may have to wait a few days for it to arrive. MetService issued a heavy rainfall warning yesterday for the west coast of the South Island, the Nelson ranges and the Tararua range north of Wellington.

Eruption debris may extend snow seasons 2 Oct 2007 Massey University Skiers and snowboarders may have the recent eruption to thank for an extended ski season, says Uni- versity glaciologist Dr Martin Brook. Dr Brook is a lecturer in physical geography who has specialised in the study of glaciers. On hearing of the eruption last Tuesday, he and a team headed up Mt Ruapehu to install monitoring equipment to assess the glaciological response. “The eruption dumped a lot of volcanic material on the upper snowfields at Ruapehu, which act as source accumulation areas collecting snow,” he says. “This is in turn turns into firm snow and then glacier ice for the Whakapapa Glacier in particular. As we are now moving into the spring and summer melting season, where the sun is at a higher angle, and the days are longer, snow and glacier ice on Ruapehu usually melts rapidly until the following autumn. However, this year, there is now debris cover on the ice of varying thickness, so this will protect the snow and ice from melting in the accumulation area,

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 31 keeping a base of snow and ice in place for a longer than usual. That also gives us the tantalising pros- pect of enhanced snow at the beginning of the autumn ski season in 2008.” Were the layer of debris thinner - or thicker - it would have a different impact. “Melting is enhanced under debris up to about 8mm thick, due to absorption of shortwave radiation from the sun. The debris re-emits this as long-wave radiation into the adjacent snow and ice. This is because dark colours have a low reflectivity, and do not reflect sunlight like lighter colours do. However, with a debris cover thicker than about eight to 10mm, this actually acts to insulate the ice and snow below, as the debris is too thick for any radiation received at the surface to be transmitted downwards to the snow below.”

Storms bring holiday chaos Tuesday October 02, 2007 NZ Herald By Elizabeth Binning and Alanah May Eriksen

A car copes with the surface flooding in Taharoto Rd,Takapuna. 33mm of rain fell in 3 hours.

Extreme spring weather brought chaos to parts of the country yesterday, causing flight cancellations, road accidents and widespread minor flooding to homes. The long-range forecast for the rest of the school holiday is more misery to come as yesterday's "topsy- turvey weather" also left emergency services workers struggling to keep up in parts of the country. Carla Salinger of Weatherwise Auckland said Helens- ville in west Auckland got the worst of the storm, with about 33mm of rain between 2pm and 5pm.

A pedestrian is engulfed in sea-spray, whipped-up by severe gale-force winds, as he walks along Evan Bay Parade in Wellington. Wind reached 126km/h in the Wellington surburb of Kelburn.

In Wellington, gusts of over 120km/h disrupted com- muter traffic and caused flight delays and cancellations, one from Auckland and one from Dunedin. The strongest gust in the region yesterday was 128km/h, recorded on Mount Kaukau. A severe wind warning for Wellington, Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay was likely to be lifted by today, but the Met Service warned wind gusts would not be far below the warning level - gusts of 120km/h-plus. Met Service spokesman Bob McDavitt said the "topsy-turvey" weather was expected to bring cold southerly winds over the North Island tomorrow, which could bring a small amount of snow to low levels. "This changeable and unsettled weather is typical of spring and is starting later than normal this year.

Maharey at sea over robot float launch Wednesday October 03, 2007 Minister of Research, Science and Technology Steve Maharey wasn't sure how to officially launch a ro- botic float but the crew of the RV Kaharoa were on hand yesterday to assist. The floats are the ocean equivalent of weather balloons and the National Institute of Water and Atmos- pheric Research (Niwa) vessel will release the 3000th float, in a global project called Argo, on a trip from Wellington to Chile. Mr Maharey helped dip the float in Wellington harbour and it was retrieved for a proper launch later. Many of the floats are launched by commercial vessels but Niwa agreed to help, particularly in the southern Pacific where there were not many commercial vessels, said Professor Dean Roemmich, from Scripps Institute of Oceanography in San Diego and co-chairman of the International Argo Steering Group. The floats launched by Niwa had provided some of the most interesting information collected by the project.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 32 Niwa has launched 439 floats for the global project and on one occasion, on a voyage to Mauritius, the Kaharoa was boarded by pirates. Most of the floats launched by Niwa are paid for by the United States - they cost about $20,000 each - and US ambassador William McCormick attended yesterday's ceremony to reflect on the co-operation between the two countries on the project. The floats, which stay in the sea for up to five years, are pre-programmed. They drop to 1000m and drift at that depth for about nine days then drop to 2000m before surfacing and transmitting information on ocean currents, temperature and salinity, helping the understanding of climate change. The Argo Project * Argo is a global array of 3000 free-drifting profiling floats that measure the temperature and salinity of the upper 2000m of the ocean. * This allows continuous monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean, with all data being relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection. * In Greek mythology, Argo was the ship in which Jason and the Argonauts set sail to search for the golden fleece. - NZPA

Want the sun? Just wait a minute NZ Herald Thursday October 04, 2007 By Stuart Dye

Grey skies over Auckland. Photo / Dean Purcell. One minute people were reaching for sunglasses, the next for coats and umbrellas as October's bizarre weather fluctuated wildly from glorious sunshine to hailstones. The four-seasons-in-one-day weather that has plagued New Zealand and disrupted school holiday plans will continue today as another front sweeps up the country from the south. In Auckland, baking sun, downpours, swirling winds and hailstones followed each other in quick succession. Temperatures fluctuated between 8C and 16C. The west of the Auckland region was drenched in more than 22mm of rain, but less than 8mm fell to the south. The unsettled weather is being caused by cold air from the south crossing warming oceans. Planes, ferry services and road travel were disrupted yesterday, although with no major accidents.

Fresh spring snow sprinkles the south By STAFF REPORTERS - The Southland Times | Thursday, 4 October 2007 JOHN HAWKINS/Southland Times/Image ID 111792 SNOWY SPRING: Fresh snow covering the hills near Old Coach Rd created a scenic drive for early morning traffic travelling along the Ferndale section of the road yesterday. The road runs from Clinton to Mataura. It is somewhat ironic that Lakes District mountains received good snowfall just as the ski season winds down. The Remarkables, which is still open, reported receiving up to 20cm of fresh snow in the past two days. It snowed lightly out in the Maniototo first thing in the morning as well, but the only place it settled was on the hills. MetService forecaster Andy Downs said the recent weather patterns were typical of spring where several days of gusty north westerlies were followed by a cold snap. Mr Downs said MetService had received reports that snow had fallen down to 200m around Clinton and Lumsden, while the Homer Tunnel, which sits 900m above sea level, received 20cm of snow.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 33 Bay battered then frosted as weather cooks up bizarre mix Hawke’s Bay Today, 04.10.2007 JOE DAWSON J High winds ripped through the Bay yesterday, dislodging this billboard. PICTURE: CAMERON BURNELL

High winds gusting to 83kmh in Napier yesterday gave way to calm cold conditions later in the evening, seeing Hawke's Bay wake to a stunning clear day this morning, and in places to the sound of frost-fighting helicopters. Metservice forecaster Paul Bruce said a cold southerly air flow drifted through the region, taking the air temperature in Hastings to -1deg and in Napier and Takapau to 2deg, with ground temperatures two or three degrees lower. But despite the high winds, the temperature drop had been forecast.

Bursting of lake's banks edges closer NZ Herald Friday October 05, 2007 By Edward Gay

The newly-formed lake at Mt Aspiring. Photo / Otago Daily Times

The South Island's newest lake is on the rise, with the water level nearing the top of the bank after heavy rain overnight. The lake was formed after a landslide created a natural dam on the Young River that winds its way through the Mt Aspiring National Park. "If it stays where it is and ends up being a lake then it will be spectacular," Mr Winder said.

Internet trouble in the capital NZPA | Sunday, 7 October 2007 Communication problems affected a number of Internet Service Providers around Wellington yesterday. The Dominion Post, the New Zealand Press Association and the MetService were among those affected. It is understood the problem was caused by a faulty switch somewhere in the Wellington central business district, which was causing other switches to go down. CityLink engineers were working to isolate the faulty switch and by about 5.30pm yesterday things appeared to be back to normal. "I'd like to thank those who helped restore our communications so quickly," MetService chief information officer Russell Turner said. "During the event special work was done to ensure that there was minimal disruption to the flow of weather information for our critical customers."

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 34 Wild nor'westers 'a taste of things to come' The Dominion Post | Monday, 8 October 2007

WET AND WINDY: October and November are New Zealand's windiest months. Wild northwesterlies, which cut a swath through central New Zealand down to Canterbury, are just a taste of things to come, warn meteorologists. Gusts of up to 150kmh whipped Beacon Hill and the top of the Rimutakas yesterday, prompting police to advise motorists to exercise extreme caution, especially while driving in the Rimutakas. MetService forecaster Andy Downs said it had been "a vigorous spring". Wairarapa was also hit by gales, and Horowhenua and Manawatu had torrential rain. A fierce thunder-and-lightning storm lashed Wellington about 7pm last night. Storm-force northwesterly winds gusting up to 148kmh caused chaos across Can- terbury before dawn yesterday, cutting power to thousands of homes and lifting roofs.

Flood warning for upper North Island, landslips likely NZ Herald Tuesday October 09, 2007 By Juliet Rowan

A young boy tests the floodwaters on St Albans Grove, alongside the Hutt River. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Weather forecasters said there was potential for lo- calised flooding and slips in the upper North Island, following chaos caused by torrential rain and strong winds in central regions yesterday. Police issued warnings for motorists to take extra care yesterday after heavy rain overnight caused flooding on high- ways and roads. On State Highway 2 between Upper Hutt and Pe- tone, water on the road reached up to 300mm deep and, in Lower Hutt, police scrambled to get people to move their cars from carparks and roads when the Hutt River flooded. In the six hours to 11am, 150mm of rain fell, peaking at 33mm an hour. Winds reaching 150km/h blasted the Rimutaka Hill Rd, and in the Wairarapa, the Fire Service attended more than a dozen jobs involving trees blown onto roads. In the South Island, gusts of up to 110km/h were recorded, while Civil Defence officials monitored rivers and lakes swollen by days of rain. Rock falls were reported on some roads and motorists were warned to be wary of flooding in alpine areas.

Fierce gusts no show-stopper for stallholders Hawke’s Bay Today 17.10.2007 More FM promotions manager Trudy Godwin battles the wind at Hawke's Bay showgrounds. PICTURE: DUNCAN BROWN

Despite huge winds wreaking havoc for stallholders in the lead- up to the Hawke's Bay Show which opened today, there was nothing that couldn't be overcome with a bit of practical problem-solving. Show veteran Les Vesty, who runs Animal World, had to leave his Central Hawke's Bay home at 4am today to set up on time, and his journey north was not without event. "State Highway 50 was blocked by a tree. I had to pull over and get my chainsaw out and take the tops off and pull stuff off the road to get through. "The Pony Express always gets through," he laughed. When he got to the show grounds at Hastings at 5:30am the wind was so strong he saw a fully erected tent blow through the air and roll around on top of other tents. But by opening time at 8am everything was put to rights. One stallholder put to the test was the More FM team, whose marquee was ruined by strong winds yester-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 35 day afternoon, leaving them with the unenviable task of having to find a new tent at the 11th hour. Promo- tions manager Trudy Godwin said she had hire-company phone numbers written all the way up her arm. "We managed to hire the last marquee in Hawke's Bay," she said. Windy weather is expected for the rest of today, with rain tomorrow and possibly a frost on Saturday morning, the MetService has reported. Forecaster Richard Finnie said he expected the northwest gale force winds in Hastings and Napier to ease this afternoon but that would be followed by showers. * Flight plans at Hawke's Bay Airport this morning were scuttled by strong winds. Even the east-west cross runway was unable to be used as unpredictable gusts surged to gale force at times between 6am and mid-morning. Some gusts were more than 100km/h in exposed places in the region.

Strong winds forecast for holiday weekend NZ Herald Thursday October 18, 2007

Prepare for more of this. Photo / Michael Craig Vigorous spring westerly winds are forecast for the Labour holiday weekend, MetService said today. National Forecast Centre manager Peter Kreft said most of New Zealand would be under the influence of a ridge of high pressure, resulting in widespread fine weather on Friday. "However, cold showery southerlies should persist in northern Hawke's Bay and Gisborne for a fair bit of the day," he said. Westerly winds will be strong and gusty in many places on and off from later on Saturday, posing a particular hazard for those on central New Zealand roads. Eastern areas from Bay of Plenty to Canterbury should be fine and mild, while the west of both islands is expected to be cloudy and cooler, with showers from time to time. - NZPA, NZ HERALD STAFF

Snow today, but get your togs ready for the weekend By JOHN KEAST - The Press | Thursday, 18 Octo- ber 2007

JOHN KEAST/The Press These pictures were taken at 10am today near the top of Spur Road, which runs between Raincliff and Fairlie in South Canterbury.

Higher parts of South Canterbury got a good dusting on snow overnight, with isolated sleet and snow showers this morning but the forecast for Labour Weekend looks more promising. Five to six centimeters of snow lay on south-facing slopes this morning but was not expected to last on warm spring ground, or to worry stock. Temperatures were around 5deg this morning but skies were brightening. Holidaymakers around the South Island can look forward to a balmy weekend thanks to a high moving over the country.

Nobel Peace Prize 2007 winners- World can still fight warming Monday October 22, 2007 By Angela Gregory Dr Jim Salinger composts his food scraps and uses energy-efficient light bulbs, while Dr David Wratt uses public transport and plants trees. But the personal contributions of the Niwa climate scientists in tackling the issue of global warming go way beyond commitments to reduce their carbon footprints. For years the pair have devoted huge amounts of time to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- mate Change (IPCC) which was this month awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 36 The organisation shares the prize with former United States Vice-President Al Gore for his film An Inconvenient Truth , in recognition of their efforts to raise awareness and impetus around the threat of climate change. While Gore might have got star billing in his attention-grabbing documentary on the frightening implica- tions of human-induced global warming, the platform on which he launched it was thanks to the work of the IPCC scientists. The IPCC is an international body of scientists and officials who have collaborated to assess the available scientific literature on climate change. Among them have been about 30 New Zealand researchers who have contributed their expertise to the organisation which was established in 1998 by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme. Dr David Wratt, leader of Niwa's national climate centre, has been involved virtually from the start and overviews the IPCC process. Dr Wratt was one of two co-ordinating lead authors for the Australia- New Zealand chapter in the 2001 assessment and is currently the only New Zealander on the 40-member IPCC bureau. He said Gore had proven a skilled communicator who could "talk the science" in a way people could understand. "Each report is the size of a telephone directory and even the sum- maries are quite technical and not that accessible to the public." Dr Wratt said while Gore had perhaps over-simplified some material and in cases made errors in the detail, the overall scientific picture he presented was correct. "Scientists have no doubt that carbon dioxide levels have increased and human-related activity is influenc- ing the climate with substantial impacts." Dr Wratt thought the sharing of the Nobel Peace Prize was "wonderful" and a well-earned reward for hours of unpaid work many scientists had dedicated to the task. While some of the work was done as part of his salaried job at Niwa, there was still a great deal done in Dr Wratt's private time. "I have spent a lot of weekends reviewing, but it is a satisfying commitment." The IPCC assessed scientific literature, examined the arguments and laid out any disputes.

Worst battering of spring expected tomorrow NZ Herald , Monday October 22, 2007

New Zealanders are in for a windy day tomorrow. Parts of the country could be in for the worst battering of spring so far, with severe and damaging gales forecast for tomorrow. The MetService has issued a severe weather warning as a low deepens in the Tasman Sea and moves on to the South Island. The weather system will bring a short and intense period of rain along the west coast from northwest Nelson to Fiordland tomorrow morning. Trampers are warned to watch for rapidly rising rivers. Meanwhile, severe northwest gales are expected to rapidly develop from Hawke’s Bay to inland Canterbury in the early hours, reaching up to 130kmh. Later in the morning severe west to southwest gales are expected to batter many parts of Southland and eastern Otago, gusting up to 140kmh. "It may well be that these gales will be the strongest of a series of gales which have affected New Zealand over recent weeks," forecasters said. The winds are likely to cause damage to trees and power lines, and make driving hazardous. The worst affected area will be from Invercargill to Dunedin, where the wind may be strong enough to damage buildings, they warned.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 37 Cost counted after fierce winds TVNZ Oct 23, 2007

Communities up and down the country are counting the cost after fierce winds hammered many parts of New Zealand. Tuesday was a horror day for emergency workers, stretched to the limit dealing with lifted roofs, fallen fences and flying trees. Southland was the first and worst hit. A 30-metre pine tree was felled by severe gales near Invercargill, its branches smashing deep into a farm workers house. Farm worker Christine Gheorghe was hit on the head by a branch and had to receive hospital treatment. The tree also invaded the kitchen and flattened a shed. Southland's wind blew in overnight Monday, gusting to 140 kilometres an hour before easing around lunchtime on Tuesday. Firefighters received more than 200 emergency services calls, mainly to deal with flapping sheets of iron. One firefighter was hurt. The clean-up bill in Southland alone will run to tens of thousands of dollars.

Winds cause chaos on roads 24.10.2007 BY NATHAN CROMBIE , Wairarapa Times-Age

One of the first casualties of the high winds which ripped through Tararua district yesterday.Photo: Dannevirke News

Sme of the strongest gales in the country hit Wairarapa yesterday but high winds caused greater havoc on roads further north and forecasters are warning of more to come. Delivery of the Wairarapa Times-Age was delayed by about three hours yesterday afternoon after the transport truck was caught in dangerously high winds about 10km north of Dannevirke. Trucks were barred from travelling State Highway 2 from the Takapau Plains to Mount Bruce for several hours yesterday after several heavy vehicles were blown over along with an ambulance that was on the way to attend a women trapped in a car near Dannevirke by a wind-felled tree. Met Service forecaster Matthew Ford said wind gusts of up to 141km/h were recorded at Castlepoint yesterday and up to 148km/h on the Rimutaka Hill. Severe wind warnings were in place until yesterday afternoon after high winds began soon after midnight on Monday.

Frosts nip region's asparagus crop By JILL GALLOWAY - Manawatu Standard | Tuesday, 30 October 2007

JONATHAN CAMERON/Manawatu Standard SEASONAL TRAVELLER: Packing asparagus at Tendertips packhouse near Levin.

Another frost has hit the region's asparagus industry, just as it gets into the peak of production. Three frosts have frozen asparagus spears in the ground, making much of the crop unsaleable, Geoff Lewis from the Tendertips Asparagus packhouse near Levin says.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 38 After a great early start to the season, brought on by warm weather, the cold set in. There have been plenty of grey, windy days, but it is the clear night skies and southerlies that have brought the frosty trouble. "One was a major frost that we think may even have got under the ground. It ruined seven days of asparagus harvest - the worst one we've ever experienced." Sunday night brought another, lighter frost. The Tendertips packhouse is at capacity at the moment, with the harvested spears being washed, graded and put into bunches for the local market and ex- port. A spear takes around five days from the time the bud appears until it is big enough to harvest.

Fireworks beamed across the planet 1 November 2007 Up to 100,000 Wellingtonians are expected to descend upon the central city on Monday evening for the Pelorus Trust Sky Show, but for those who won’t be able to make it, the MetService will make the display accessible to all internet users. Homesick expats across the globe will be able to log on to the MetService website and see live footage of the fireworks over their morning coffee. MetService Market Manager, Craig Delany says there is a buzz of excitement about their Wellington live streaming camera. “The webcam provides visitors to our site with a live, north to south 180 degree panning shot from the roof of the MetService building up here in Kelburn. We aim to have several cameras showing different views of Monday’s fireworks live to housebound residents, or anyone out of the city at the time,” he says. A recorded version will be also placed on the MetService website, www.metservice.com The Sky Show starts at 9pm and will run for about 15 minutes to a soundtrack broadcast on Classic Hits. For those who can make it in to the city on the night, the best points to view the fireworks are from the wa- terfront and surrounding hills. Boating spectators looking for a good viewing spot are asked to keep 300m away from the barges and keep their boat speed to a maximum of five knots.

Blenheim threatens to steal crown for sunshine hours The Nelson Mail | Friday, 2 November 2007 Nelson ' s reign as the sunniest place in New Zealand is under threat with Blenheim receiving more than 50 extra hours of sunshine so far this year. Nelson weather forecaster John Mathieson said that as of 9am Thursday, Nelson had received 2010.6 sunshine hours, while rival Blenheim had received 2062.1 hours. "We have the last two months to make up the deficit or fall on our sword." Rainfall in Nelson is also almost 20 percent down on average, with 661mm so far this year.

Rain dampens cracker chaos By PRISCILLA DUNCAN - Whangarei Leader | Tuesday, 13 November 2007

ALL ABLAZE: A Ruakaka firefighter on Guy Fawkes night helps to control a fire on Pyle St which covered a hectare of scrub and lit the night sky. The Fire Service may have the weather to thank for slightly fewer fire- work-related call-outs this year but some Northland stations were kept busy. Since fireworks went on sale on November 2, there have been 18 call- outs across Northland directly attributed to fireworks and 10 jobs indi- rectly linked to Guy Fawkes events, says Northland fire safety officer Craig Bain. The numbers are slightly down on previous years, probably because Monday night ' s weather was poor. But Ruakaka had one of its busiest Guy Fawkes nights. Law changes meant the sale window for fireworks dropped from 10 days to four days while the legal age to buy fireworks rose from age 14 to 18.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 39

Man survives close encounter with menacing waterspout By PAUL GORMAN - The Press | Wednesday, 14 November 2007 A menacing, spinning wall of cloud forced Christchurch resident Bernie Shapiro to flee for safety as it roared onshore near Birdlings Flat yesterday. The waterspout – the nautical equivalent of a tornado but generally weaker – formed on the underside of a developing thunderstorm off the Kaitorete Spit about 2pm. Shapiro, still shaken from his encounter with the waterspout an hour later, said the wind was strong enough to rock his Land Rover "on to almost two wheels". "I looked out to sea and a great big, black object started lancing down. It hit the sea and turned a really, really dark grey colour and I realised it was a waterspout. "I started up the Land Rover and took off, getting the hell out of there." MetService spokesman Paul Mallinson said the waterspout was part of the forecast storm activity that crossed Canterbury .

Blades bring cold comfort By GARRY SHEERAN - Sunday Star Times | Sunday, 4 November 2007 Steve Haslett admits that if climate scientists are right, he will be out of business. But in the meantime orchardists and winemakers in New Zealand and around the world are buying his wind machines as insurance against crop-killing frosts. For winemaker Chris Archer of Alana Estate, Martinborough, the technology is an alternative to hiring helicopters when disaster threatens. "Seven years ago we didn ' t see any frosts in Martinborough, but now we get seven or eight a season," he said. Niwa ' s Jim Salinger sees things differently, pointing out that the incidence of frosts declined steadily through last century. "We are still analysing data since 2000, but with global warming we will get fewer frosts, not more," he said. But among orchardists and vineyard owners, the apparent randomness of frost attacks attracts all the ru- mour, myth and speculation accorded to climate change itself. NZ Winegrowers figures show frosts last year cut 30% of Central Otago ' s wine production. In the Waira- rapa, they will be watching hard on November 20. "An unexpected frost on that night last year wiped out 70% of some people ' s crops," Archer said. “And for the region ' s globally marketed pinot noirs, that could spell disaster. Marlborough wine-makers have less reason to worry about frosts, but several weeks ago more than 100 helicopters were airborne even there. Haslett identified the single-focussed nature of the FrostBoss Wind Machines as the major weakness of the business when he bought it six months ago. If global warming does mean no more frosts, "then we really are out of business". But he believes climate change may also mean more extremes, especially in the shorter term. "Winemakers are also now planting more marginal land further up the valleys where it is colder and more frost-prone," he said. On the plus side for Haslett is the fact that FrostBoss is a niche business with an exceptional product in global terms. Americans started making wind machines to combat the effect of frost on crops more than 20 years ago. That was where New Zealander Kim McAulay saw them, and he started importing them to New Zealand in 1992. With help from former Team NZ aerodynamic engineer Richard Karn, FrostBoss developed a four-blade wind ma- chine quiet enough to comply with the Resource Manage- ment Act.

Bloom goes off vineyard profits By NICK CHURCHOUSE - The Dominion Post | Wednes- day, 14 November 2007

SOUR TASTE: Martinborough ' s Te Kairanga vineyard blames climate change and the volatility of the New Zea- land dollar after posting a $2.17 million loss.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 40 Changeable weather and fluctuating currencies have marred Te Kairanga ' s vineyard ' s last harvest, as it tries to shore up future seasons with more grapes and more experience. The Martinborough vineyard posted a $2.17 million loss for the year to June 30, with chairman Roger Tay- lor blaming climate change and the volatility of the New Zealand dollar for the result. Mr Taylor said the forecast was not for smooth sailing, as the changing climate was creating uncertainty for vineyards. "There is more variation in climate, and in recent years we have had to put more and more frost protection in." Cooler temperatures in most of New Zealand ' s grape-growing areas were affecting harvests, he said.

Ferries delayed by 6m swells Herald Wednesday November 14, 2007 Photo / Mark Mitchell Interisland ferries are being delayed by swells of up to 6m on Cook Strait as a strong storm passes over the capital. Passengers on the Interislander are all being advised of 90-minute delays to their sailing times. Gusts of up to 130km/h have been battering the North Island since last night. The MetService advises the worst of the winds are easing for Auckland , the Coromandel Peninsula and Wellington , with severe weather warnings for those areas lifted. However, a deep low has developed east of New Zea- land , and severe gales affecting exposed coastal parts of Hawke's Bay are expected to spread to coastal Gis- borne as far north as Tokomaru Bay this afternoon. In these areas, south to southwest winds are likely to gust 130km/h in exposed places until late this afternoon. The MetService warns the winds have the potential to damage trees and powerlines, lift insecure roofs, and make driving hazardous. Police have warned motorists to take extreme care due to bad weather on State Highway 1 from Taihape through the Desert Road .

By thunder what a great show GREER McDONALD Dominion Post - Wellington | Thursday, 15 November 2007 ©CHRISTIAN JARA SOUND AND LIGHT: The electrical storm created spectacular scenes but also caused problems. Wild weather that unleashed a spectacular electrical storm also wreaked havoc on com- muters, creating a horror landing at Wellington airport and a Cook Strait swell that delayed ferries. And a man in Tawa, Welling- ton , was crushed by a falling tree yesterday. Lightning, house-rattling thunder, strong winds and heavy rain hit Wellington on Tuesday night. MetService spokeswoman Liz Haslam said the thunder was louder than normal because the storm rolled right over the city, and was accompanied by hail. "The sound level depends on how big the storm is, but it has the ability to shake houses, like last night. You can feel it through your body." Ms Haslam said the light show, caused by both sheet and fork lightning, was spectacular. " Wellington doesn't get thunder storms much, so it's exciting when it happens." In Tawa, a surveyor was injured when he was hit by a falling tree at the motorway on-ramp yesterday

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 41 morning. The 55-year-old man was taken to Wellington Hospital with moderate back injuries. Firefighters had to cut away part of the tree to let ambulance officers treat him. The chaos was caused by a deep low that developed east of New Zealand , and a very strong south-to- southwest airstream that covered the North Island .

UN Warning on global warming TVNZ Sun, 18 Nov 2007

The United Nations panel of climate scientists has issued its starkest warning yet on global warming. In a final report the scientists say ' there is no doubt global warming is man-made, and it ' s taking the planet to the brink of an irreversible environmental disaster. This was the release of the fourth United Nations report on climate change, but it ' s the shortest and has the strongest language. In just 27 pages the scientists have agreed, man-made carbon emission are sowing the seeds of a ca- tastrophe. * 11 of last 12 years are warmest on record. * global sea level rising. * snow cover and glaciers are declining. * cold days and nights less frequent, heat waves more frequent. * tropical cyclones more frequent. Global warming could mean the extinction of 30 percent species, water shortages for 25 million people, and tropical diseases spreading to areas that never had them. This is a scientific report for the politicians, it says. This benchmark report will be debated in Bali meeting next month. 130 nations are meeting to start negotiating a new global agreement on cutting carbon emissions.

New Zealand Glaciers Shrinking NZPA: November 19 2007 New Zealand’s glaciers are shrinking and twelve of the largest glaciers in the Southern Alps are unlikely to return to their earlier lengths without extraordinary cooling of the climate. Research released by the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) today shows that the volume of ice in the Southern Alps has reduced by about 5.8 cubic kilometres, or almost 11%, in the past 20 years. More than 90% of this loss is from 12 of the largest glaciers in response to rising temperatures over the 20th century. The glaciers have passed a threshold, causing the ice to collapse and creating large lakes at their base, the report said. The overall shrinkage is despite almost no change in the position of the ‘End of Summer Snowline’ at the top of the Southern Alps glaciers recorded in NIWA’s latest aerial survey. The shrinkage is occurring further down on the trunks of the bigger glaciers which have been lowering for over a century. These have now passed a threshold, where the ice is collapsing, rapidly expanding lakes at the foot of the glaciers. The shrinkage is creating some spectacular ice cliffs that are calving into the lakes. “With future warming, significant melting of the glaciers is likely to continue,” says NIWA Principal Scientist Dr Jim Salinger. “The twelve big glaciers with these pro-glacial lakes have passed a ‘tipping point’. It is not yet clear whether the glaciers will disappear completely with future warming, but they are set to shrink further as they adjust to today’s climate. And it is already clear that they will not return to their earlier lengths without extraordinary cooling of the climate because the large lakes now block their advance.” The twelve glaciers are: Tasman, Godley, Murchison, Classen, Mueller, Hooker, Ramsay, Volta/Therma, La Perouse, Balfour, Grey, and Maud. In comparison, New Zealand ’s smaller glaciers, especially those west of the Main Divide, are somewhat unusual because they have their source in areas of extremely high precipitation. So, for instance, these glaciers advanced during most of the 1980s and 1990s when the area experienced about a 15% increase in precipitation, associated with more El Niño events. In most of the rest of the world (with the exception of parts of Norway ), glaciers tend to be in areas of lower precipitation, so rising temperatures are affecting the glaciers there more directly and sooner. “The iconic Franz Josef glacier is still much shorter now than in 1900,” says Dr Salinger. “Franz Josef glacier retreated about 400 metres from 2000–2005, then advanced 170 metres to 2007, but this recent gain

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 42 does not compensate for the large overall losses seen over the past century.” BACKGROUND Overall ice volume shrinks, 1976–2005 Ice volume in the Southern Alps has decreased by 6 km3 (almost 11%) in the past 20 years.. 1976 volume = 54.60 km3 2005 volume = 48.74 km3 Volume lost = 5.86 km3 Percentage lost = 10.73% Source: Ongoing research by Dr Jim Salinger and Andrew Willsman (NIWA), Dr Trevor Chinn (Alpine & Polar Research), and Professor Blair Fitzharris ( University of Otago ).

The Tasman Lake at the bottom of the Lower Tasman Glacier

Processes involved in glacier shrinkage: Formation & growth of ‘proglacial’ lakes: ice melting at the foot of glaciers & meltwater forming lakes. Some chunks of ice ‘calve’ off glaciers into the lakes (like ice bergs) ‘Down-wasting’ of the glacier trunk: ice melts from the top surface of the trunk. Trunks go from their original convex shape to near- straight or even concave. (Convex: if you walked from one side to the other, it would be like walking up & down a slight hill. Con- cave: if you walked from one side to the other, it would be like walking into & up out of a slight hollow). Change in mass-balance: resulting from the amount of snow that falls and the amount that melts during a season, based on end of summer snowline surveys. The bulk of ice volume loss comes from calving into pro-glacial lakes and trunk down-wasting of 12 of NZ’s largest glaciers. These are all east of the Main Divide. Only 10% of total ice volume loss is due to changes in mass-balance.

Is this shrinkage the result of global warming? Yes, but different glaciers have different response times: - Mean response time for Southern Alps glaciers = about 12 years. - Range of response times for Southern Alps glaciers = about 5 –150 years. The pace of total ice loss from the Southern Alps is slower now than in the earlier 20th century because the many smaller glaciers responded very quickly to the rapid warming that occurred in NZ climate around the 1950s. Smaller glaciers: - Most already show the effects of much of the warming in the 20th century (about 1ºC). - Show only slight volume loss since 1977 because regional precipitation has increased. Larger glaciers, especially east of the Main Divide: - Response times for these glaciers are over 80 years. - They are still adjusting to warming that began during the early 20th century.

Little change at the top: “End of Summer Snowline” survey The Southern Alps glaciers monitored annually by NIWA showed little change in ice mass in the year to March 2007. (Source: Aerial survey of 50 indicator glaciers, conducted at the end of summer each year since 1977).. “There was more snowfall than usual in the Southern Alps during winter and spring 2006 when more de- pressions (‘lows’) to the south east of the country and anticyclones (‘highs’) in the Tasman Sea brought more frequent episodes of south westerly winds. This was counterbalanced by more anticyclones over summer which produced very dry clear conditions resulting in more snowmelt than usual,” says NIWA Principal Scientist Dr Jim Salinger. The higher the snow line, the more snow has been lost to feed the glacier; the lower the snowline the more snow has been gained to feed the glacier. On average, the snow line this year was 6 metres below where it would be to keep the ice mass constant – a very small overall change.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 43

Note: These results do not include the effects of this past (2007) winter.

Global trends & comparison with New Zealand Globally, most glaciers are retreating. Of the glaciers for which there are continuous data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service, the mean annual loss in ice thickness since 1980 remains close to half a metre per year. The Service has said that the loss in ice mass “leaves no doubt about the accelerating change in climatic conditions”. For world glacier data, see www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms New Zealand’s glaciers are more complicated because some have their source in areas of extremely high precipitation. West of the Main Divide in the Southern Alps , more than 10 metres (10,000 mm) of precipitation falls each year as clouds are pushed up over the sharply rising mountain ranges. This means the mass of New Zealand ’s glaciers is sensitive to changing wind and precipitation patterns as well as to temperature. So, for example, the glaciers advanced during most of the 1980s and 1990s when the area experienced about a 15% increase in precipitation, associated with more El Niño events and stronger westerly winds over New Zealand . The glaciers in parts of Norway are similar.

Huge drop in carbon emissions needed By Paul Gorman - The Press | Monday, 19 November 2007

David Parker. Climate Change Minister

Action is essential in the next two to three decades if the world is to avert runaway climate change accompanied by wild weather, plant and animal extinction and rapidly rising sea levels, according to an international report. The last of this year ' s series of reports from the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) warns that even if greenhouse gas levels steadied soon, man-made warming and sea-level rise would continue for centuries. Carbon dioxide emissions worldwide would need to be 50 per cent to 80% below those of 2000 to restrict global warming to only 2deg above pre-industrial levels. Approved early yesterday morning in Valencia , Spain , the "synthesis report" summarises the findings of the three other reports released this year. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) principal scientist Dr Jim Renwick said yesterday that the challenge would be for the world to pull together on reducing the effects of climate change. The IPCC findings would be presented at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali next month, where countries would negotiate on what might happen after the Kyoto Protocol ' s first commitment period ends in 2012. "We need some international consensus where China and the rest, the United States , Australia , every- body, joins into do something, then there ' ll be no hard feelings about why we ' re doing this." Renwick agreed it was difficult to think of an example where the whole world had agreed to work together on an issue before. It was not too late to make a difference, but in another 30 to 50 years it might be, he said.. "Time ' s running out. That ' s the message people are trying to get across. It ' s certainly a call to action," he said. Climate Change Minister David Parker said the IPCC had "made a clear case" that governments could and must act to avoid dangerous climate change. "It confirms the increasing pace of climate change, and the serious impacts we and the rest of the globe may face if we do not get greenhouse gas emissions under control." New Zealand and the rest of the world could cut emissions and avoid the worst of the projected impacts of climate change. "A number of actions stand to deliver additional economic, environmentaland health benefits. It confirms that it ' s cheaper to take action on climate change than not. "Even at the household level, simple steps can cut vehicle fuel and energy bills significantly, and improve people ' s health while cutting emissions," Parker said. Renwick believed it could be another six or seven years before the next IPCC reports came out.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 44

Sun toasts Martinborough festival By TANYA KATTERNS, Martinborough - The Dominion Post | Monday, 19 Nov 2007 BASKING: An estimated 10,000 people flocked to Martinborough vineyards yesterday to enjoy wine, food, music and weather at the Toast festival. There were fine wines, gourmet delights and swinging sounds - and man was it hot.Sunshine proved the perfect complement for the estimated 14,000 bottles of wine downed by the 10,000 who flocked to Wairarapa vineyards yesterday for Toast Martinborough 2007. The mercury topped 23 degrees celsius, driving visitors into the shade and ensuring local stores were stripped of sunblock. MetService spokesman Paul Bruce said the weekend ' s good weather was due to a large anti-cyclone over most of New Zealand .

Balmy weather to go on By TOM FITZSIMONS - The Dominion Post | Thursday, 22 November 2007 WILL HINE/Southland Times COOLING OFF: Wanaka man Luke Downs cools off in Roys Bay in Lake Wanaka . It's the golden weather all right - and there's no end in sight. Most of New Zealand continued to bask in the hot, calm wash of air laid on by an anticyclone yesterday. Temperatures consistently rose above 20 degrees celsius all week, MetSer- vice forecaster Andy Downs said. "The main reason is this large area of high pressure around the country." The "blocking high" cut off colder currents of air from south of New Zealand . "It ties in with the idea that we have had this weak La Nina pattern, which is associated with having highs further south," Mr Downs said.

Heat sends clock ' s mercury soaring By AMY MILNE - The Southland Times | Thursday, 22 November 2007 JOHN HAWKINS/Southland Times/Image ID 114336 HOT CLOCK: The H & J Smith temperature gauge recorded an impressive 27degC yesterday. Southerners are stripping their clothes off to enjoy a long-awaited heatwave after an unpleasant Octo- ber.. But just how hot is it? Some Invercargill city-folk were dumbfounded when temperatures on the H&J Smith clock displayed a tropical 27degC at 9am yesterday. However, 45South weather forecaster Andy Fraser, said: "If it was 27degC at 9am I would eat my whole car." While seeing 27degC at 9am would put a smile on people ' s faces, the H&J Smith clock was "notoriously unreliable" on sunny days because the temperature gauge was situated on top of the building, Mr Fraser said.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 45

Temperatures could be up to 7deg above the actual temperature, he said. MetService forecaster William Nepe confirmed Invercargill ' s temperature was not 27degC at 9am yesterday but was still reasonably warm at 18degC. Temperatures throughout the day did not get much higher, as winds changed from a north-west to southwest mid-morning, Mr Nepe said.

Wet weather no deterrent for motorcycle enthusiasts By Jerrie Andrews - The Southland Times | Saturday, 24 November 2007

©JILL McKEE/ Southland Times/ Image ID 115681 RIDERS IN THE STORM: The 50-mile (80) km race at last night's Burt Munro Challenge Beach racing was a wet affair, but that didn't deter the riders who took part. Pete Jenkins reckons he ' ll be coming to the Burt Munro Challenge every year for the rest of his life. The Papamoa local, four of his mates and their classic motorcycles that ranged from Indians to Triumphs made the trip south yesterday, as did hundreds of other motorcyclists eager to enjoy the weekend ' s Burt Munro rally. Although last night's beach racing that kick-started the weekend's events was greeted with consistent rain, Mr Jenkins was not alone in his desire to make the trip to Southland an annual one, with many others braving the weather and promising a yearly return.

Eastern drought comes with $700m price tag By BERNARD CARPINTER - The Dominion Post | Tuesday, 20 November 2007

©CRAIG SIMCOX/ Dominion Post BIG DRY: The lack of rain on the North Island ' s east coast will cost the region $700 million, according to new figures. Sheep and beef farmers from East Cape to Wairarapa are taking a direct hit of $300 million, and still waiting for their grass to recover. The figures come from an Agriculture and Forestry Ministry report that went to Agriculture Minister Jim Anderton yesterday. MAF Hawke's Bay regional team leader Gillian Mangin said the farmers' income would drop by $160 million over three years. As incomes had been predicted to grow by $140 million, given normal weather, in effect the loss was $300 million. The multiplier effect, considering such factors as loss of income in the processing industries, would take the total hit for the region to about $700 million. Mrs Mangin expected most farmers to pull through, however. "They are pretty resilient and most have high levels of equity," she said. The North Island east coast region holds about a quarter of all of New Zealand 's sheep and beef stock. Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay spokesman Kevin Mitchell said he was not surprised by the figures, but he also expected most to farm their way through their difficulties. The farmers had enjoyed a good period up till the past couple of years, he said. But right now farms were short of grass because of a cool, windy spring. "We're hoping for a wet, warm December," he said.

CHOGM agrees climate change action plan 25 November 2007 Media Statement Prime Minister Helen Clark said today that the climate change declaration agreed by Commonwealth

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 46 Leaders at CHOGM makes a strong contribution to addressing the problem of global greenhouse gas emissions. “The Lake Victoria Commonwealth Climate Change Action Plan makes it clear that all countries have a role to play in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions,” Helen Clark said. Helen Clark is attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Kampala , Uganda . “The Commonwealth brings together representatives of all major interests in the climate change debate – developed and developing, small and vulnerable, large and industrialised countries. This gives Common- wealth leaders a unique perspective. “One of the agreed points for action is that the Commonwealth will take initiatives to help strengthen par- ticipation of Commonwealth developing countries in international negotiations on climate change. “This will assist more vulnerable economies to ensure their perspectives and circumstances are appropri- ately reflected. “I am also pleased that the Action Plan recognises that the issue of “food miles” affects all exporters of fresh produce and needs to be addressed on the basis of facts. “This is the third major international meeting I have attended in the past three months that has had climate change as a central theme. Along with APEC in Sydney and the East Asia Summit in Singapore , CHOGM is building on the steady momentum towards the United Nations climate change meeting in Bali next month,” Helen Clark said The Lake Victoria Commonwealth Climate Change Action Plan can be found at: http://www.thecommonwealth.org/

MetService & NIWA to collaborate more closely Tuesday, 27 November 2007, 4:01 pm Press Release: New Zealand Government Pete Hodgson and Trevor Mallard announce MetService & NIWA to work more closely together on forecasting New Zealand ' s weather, climate and associated environmental events The MetService and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) have signed an official agreement to work more closely together on forecasting New Zealand ' s weather, climate and associated environmental events. Research, Science and Technology Minister Pete Hodgson and State Owned Enterprises Minister Trevor Mallard say the formal memorandum of understanding will strengthen links between the two organisations to help New Zealanders get more timely and accurate weather information. "Accurate information about our weather and environment is vital to New Zealanders, especially given that climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our generation", says Pete Hodgson. "NIWA has a very important global role in investigating climate change and its effects on future weather patterns. Greater collaboration with MetService will improve the sharing of knowledge from this research and the delivery of weather-related information." The agreement is the result of a working group that was established following a July 2006 review into the integration of weather, climate and environmental forecasting. Trevor Mallard says the closer relationship will strengthen links between NIWA ' s environmental research and data gathering resources, and the role of the MetService in weather forecasting. "We ' ve seen how severe weather, such as flooding or cyclones, can have major impacts on some parts of this country, and increased collaboration between these organisations will improve their ability to prepare communities for bad weather." The agreement also concludes that introducing legislation to ring-fence their activities would help the two companies deliver greater benefit to New Zealanders through improved forecasting information. The Min- isters are currently considering this, and a final decision is due later.

Better forecasts tipped as weather agencies end feud By PAUL GORMAN - The Press | Wednesday, 28 November 2007 Better weather forecasts and improved warnings of severe weather are being promised now two high- profile Government agencies appear to have settled their differences. More than a year after state-owned enterprise MetService and crown research institute the National Insti- tute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) first sat down with a mediator to settle a row over forecasting responsibilities, the Government has announced the storm is over. Yesterday ' s statement by Research, Science and Technology Minister Pete Hodgson comes five months after the two organisations signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to work more closely. However, shareholding ministers are still considering legislation to "ring-fence" their operations to ensure

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 47 they do not tread on each other ' s toes. The Press understands a key sticking point has been Niwa ' s ability to produce daily forecasts and severe weather warnings using a forecasting model developed on its multimillion-dollar Cray computer. That put it into direct competition with MetService, the agency responsible for a year-round national public forecasting service.. A report to the Government proposed five options for better collaboration, including a merger of the two, but that was discarded because "the risks associated with structural change were too high". This year, a Government source told The Press one senior minister was keen to merge the two organisations. The agreement made public yesterday includes that: MetService and Niwa meet every two months.. Both will immediately share any information about impending severe weather events to improve warnings for the benefit of the country. Any infrastructure investments will be communicated in advance to ensure minimal duplication and maximum use of the new assets. Both will carry out joint research to increase shareholder value. The proposed ring-fencing of each organisation ' s area of focus would allow them to freely share intellec- tual property without affecting business, the report said. Hodgson said a final decision on that proposal was due "later". The agreement would lead to more accurate weather forecasts, he said. Niwa chief executive John Morgan said he was delighted with the outcome. "If you consider the history of this, I think it is terrific to get to this situation where there is a very powerful MOU and a very real and sincere commitment to move forward." MetService chief executive Paul Reid said he echoed those comments. "You ' ll see this was signed five months ago, so we have been operating to this agreement for quite some time now. "The biggest commitment from our point of view is when either of us will invest we ' ll always consult to ensure that not only is that investment not duplicated but is maximised to its full benefit." Blue Skies managing director Tony Trewinnard was "cautiously optimistic" that the agreement would benefit the weather industry. "The agreement clearly allows for other weather providers to benefit from the considerable public money which has flowed into Niwa ' s research coffers over the last 10 years and from the Government ' s annual funding of MetService ' s operation through the presently uncontestable crown contract for weather forecasting."

Blue Skies welcomes MetService/NIWA agreement Wed 28 Nov 2007 Blue Skies Weather managing director Tony Trewinnard is cautiously optimistic that the memorandum of understanding between MetService and NIWA, announced today, will be of benefit to the weather industry in New Zealand . “Previously both state owned organizations have soaked up large amounts of tax payer’s money for sometimes questionable benefit to the country”, he said. “The hot air has gone up, but the rain hasn’t always fallen out evenly”. This agreement provides a much needed basis for a more transparent and leaner operation of both organizations. There are now a clear set of guidelines for both organizations to follow – the public, and others involved in the weather industry in New Zealand now have a clear view of what the government ex- pects, and a way to test how the SOE and CRI they deliver.” Mr Trewinnard noted with interest that one of the national benefit objectives of the agreement promises the government will soon see “publicly funded data being available for the cost of provision for other users to add value (benefit B4)”. “This means that finally, after nearly two decades of independent weather providers banging their heads against the brick wall of data unavailability and research inapplicability, we will finally start to see some benefits flowing outside these two organizations”, he said. “The agreement clearly allows for other weather providers to benefit from the considerable public money which has flowed into NIWA’s research coffers over the last ten years, and from the government’s annual funding of MetService’s operation through the presently un-contestable crown contract for weather forecasting.” “Its about time that all tax-paying weather providers in New Zealand , including MetService, get to benefit from the great work NIWA has done in developing a very sophisticated weather forecasting model for the country with tax payer funds.”

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 48 Blue Skies Weather is New Zealand’s second largest weather forecast provider, and this year celebrates 21 years in business – a history of service to weather users in the country second only to that of MetService.

Helicopters help fight fires Manawatu Standard | Saturday, 01 December 2007 Four Palmerston North helicopters are filling in for absent rain clouds, dousing fires in the Chatham Is- lands and Blenheim. The Helipro choppers flew off yesterday, marking an early start to the fire season, Helipro business manager John Read said. Usually their firefighting assistance wouldn ' t be required until part way through December. "It ' s a pretty early start. It ' s got all the feeling of being a pretty bad season." The warm, dry weather that ' s seen people flocking outside in recent weeks would not be helping, he added.

Temperatures near record high in capital The Dominion Post | Monday, 10 December 2007

KENT BLECHYNDEN/Dominion Post HEATED COMPETITION: Junior lifesavers Robbie Baxter and Angus Hermansson in action at Worser Bay - temperatures in and around Wel- lington approached record highs yesterday. Temperatures approached record highs in and around Wellington yesterday, with the mercury hitting 27 degrees celsius in the capital. Temperatures in Wellington, Hutt Valley, Masterton and the Kapiti Coast all ranged between 27C and 29C, just a degree below the region's record high for this time of year. "It was steamy hot even from first thing this morning," said MetService forecaster Melanie Graham. The highest temperature was 31C in Culverden in the South Island. The fine spell is in sharp contrast to the far north, where heavy rain fell for much of the weekend. The bad weather is expected to continue there today.

Metservice Operations Manager Honoured Monday, 10 December 2007, 1:44 pm Metservice International Operations Manager Honoured In Vanuatu In a ceremony recently held in Port Vila the Deputy Prime Minister of the Re- public of Vanuatu, Hon. Edward Natapei, presented MetService's International Operations Manager, Garry Clarke, an honoury Tamtam or traditional split drum that is used by chiefs to call or gather villagers together. The award was in recognition of Mr. Clarke's exemplary meteorological and climate services to the Meteorological Communities in Pacific Islands, as he approaches his retirement at the end of this year. Reflecting on his 41 years of service to New Zealand and Pacific meteorological services, Garry Clarke noted the key role the region plays in our understanding of global weather and climate dynamics. "It is home to El Nino southern oscillation, source of the greatest inter- annual global climate variability," he said. "With increasing concern about human-induced climate change and sea level rise, now more than ever there is a great need to extend our understanding of the dynamics of ocean and atmospheric processes in the Pacific region." Mr. Clarke added that the award is a reflection of the high regard that is

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 49 taken of MetService for its activities and support amongst our Pacific neighbours. MetService has this year been party to a Rescue Pacific project, along with the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Met Office UK, and US NOAA Global Cli- mate Observing System (GCOS), to ensure weather and climate observations taken in the Islands of the Pacific meet World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards.

South Island fire danger soars By PAUL GORMAN, ROBYN BRISTOW and LAURA BASHAM - The Press | 12 Dec 2007

PETER MEECHAM/The Press MAKING A SPLASH: Lucinda Ebbett, 16, and Olivia Maxwell, 17 cool down in the Sumner surf. Total fire bans could be in place across much of the top of the South Island by Christmas as extreme conditions raise fears of a repeat of the destructive 2003-04 fire season. Total fire bans could be in place across much of the top of the South Island by Christmas as extreme early-summer conditions raise fears of a repeat of the destructive 2003-04 fire season. A large scrub fire near Waipara, in North Canterbury, yesterday came within metres of a homestead and farm buildings after racing over half a kilometre of parched terrain. Farmers in Canterbury, Marlborough and Wairarapa are bracing for a long, hot summer that may force some to sell animals early. Temperatures soared into the 30s yesterday around Canterbury, where the fire danger for much of the region is already very high to extreme. In Christchurch, the temperature peaked just above 31deg about lunchtime before dropping back to the high 20s, although the temperature stayed above 30deg at Christchurch International Airport. Elsewhere at 1pm, Bottle Lake Forest in north-east Christchurch hit 32deg, Ashburton 31deg and Leeston 30deg. The MetService says periods of similar warm weather are expected during the next few months. The National Rural Fire Authority's Canterbury, Marlborough, Nelson and West Coast manager, John Barnes, said fire restrictions were already in place in many areas and would be introduced elsewhere in Canterbury in the next few days. People would need to be on their guard against fires this summer, he said. "It could be a busy season. At the moment, we expect restrictions to be right over Canterbury before Christmas," he said. "The real change will be with the Canterbury Plains changing from that green colour to brown. "You look up on the Port Hills now and just in the last few days they've started turning brown. "The fire danger is tracking very similar to 2003-04. We had quite a number of major fires during that period -- Mount Somers, Arthurs Pass, West Melton." MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said the hottest and driest weather this summer would be in inland South Island areas, including the Mackenzie Country and Central Otago. In Marlborough, principal fire officer Ross Hamilton said the drought code was on 427 on a scale of 1000. Anything over 300 was considered high. Marlborough has received only 70 per cent of its annual rainfall and the district council

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 50 has already ordered some irrigation supplies to be shut off in rural areas. Federated Farmers president Charlie Pedersen said last night several rural areas were significantly drier than normal for early summer. "It seems almost unthinkable that a drought could kick off this early." Pedersen said greater accuracy in long-term forecasts meant farmers could take steps such as destocking to get through a long dry spell.

NZ Events, Rain Or Shine! Friday, 14 December 2007, 12:25 pm Planning for the weather has never been as easy now that visitors to the Met- Service website can view the best events their region has to offer with a live feed from NZLive.com. Whether it’s music, performance, exhibitions, festivals or sport; anyone from Kaitaia to Invercargill can now plan their weekend and beyond while looking up the local weather on metservice.com. ‘What’s On’ is a new feature on each of the 42 regional weather pages, listing the major events happening in the next three weeks. NZLive.com is produced by the Ministry for Culture and Heritage to encourage more people to participate in cultural and sporting events and activities around New Zealand. The website’s manager, Jackie Hay, says ‘What’s on’ is a win-win for users and for cultural organisations who list their events on NZLive.com. “By working with the MetService we’re making it easy for people to find out about major events around the country while they check out the weather.” Nicola Burroughs, Consumer Market Development Manager at MetService agrees. “People visit metservice.com to plan their day. ‘What’s On’ is a great additional service that will help them organise even more activities – indoors or outdoors, rain or shine.” Metservice.com is in the top 20 websites in New Zealand and NZLive.com is New Zealand’s most comprehensive national events guide. By teaming up they’ve created a stress-free approach to planning outings with New Zealand’s ever- changing weather in mind.

MetService extends forecast to Antarctic 11:08AM Friday December 14, 2007 The MS Explorer listing in Antarctic waters. Photo / Associated Press The recent sinking of a cruise ship in Ant- arctic waters has prompted MetService to extend regular forecasts to the Antarctic ice edge. MetService meteorologists will now issue regular marine weather forecasts and warnings for the sub-Antarctic. Chief of national weather services Rod Stainer said the forecasts extended their coverage across the open seas of the South- ern Ocean between Australia and the eastern part of the Pacific. "They will help the increasing number of vessels that are now visiting this area to avoid the worst of the weather," he said. Last month the MS Explorer, an adventure travel ship on a 19-day trip around Antarctica, hit an iceberg forcing its 154 passengers and crew into lifeboats in the middle of the night. They waited more than three hours in unusually calm, icy waters, until they were rescued by a Norwegian cruise ship. The sinking highlights the potential dangers in a boom in adventure tourism, Mr Stainer said. "It is timely that we are extending our forecasts to cover these frigid wa-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 51 ters." Maritime New Zealand deputy director of safety and response services Peter Williams said having up-to-date weather forecasts was an important tool for all skippers and would assist in its own search and rescue work. "Both the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic can be harsh and unforgiving envi- ronments, and any information which helps masters in their decision-making and improves safety is welcomed by Maritime New Zealand," he said.- NZPA

Christmas comes early as reindeer fly through the sky By RICHARD SHEARS - on 14th December 2007 There's still a week and a half to go before Santa starts his rounds. But, look up in the sky and you might just get a reminder that the reindeer are on their way. This cloud in the shape of Dancer, Prancer and co was spotted by amateur photographer Alan Black- lock on the North Island of New Zealand - which is known by the Maori as the Land of the Long White Cloud. "It was Sunday afternoon and my attention was drawn to a cloud in the sky," said Mr Blacklock "The shape started to look like a moose at the front end and a springbok at the rear. "As time passed it became the shape you see and because it is nearly Christmas it wasn't a great leap of the imagination to see a reindeer. "I was in the right place at the right time. It was a fluke, just one of those things." The cloud was formed by thin, wispy cirrus clouds more than 20,000ft up in the atmosphere. These clouds are often the harbinger of changing weather. Meteorologist Ross Marsden said that cirrus formations regularly form into tufts, which are nicknamed "mare's tails". He added: "Cirrus clouds often form themselves into unusual patterns but this one is certainly relevant as Christmas approaches." Britons hoping to spot something similarly seasonal in the sky should have plenty of opportunity, with today and tomorrow both forecast to be dry and cloudy.

Bali Climate Change Breakthrough Lauded At UN Tuesday, 18 December 2007,Press Release: United Nations The President of the General Assembly today welcomed this weekend's outcome at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia, where nearly 200 countries agreed to launch a two-year process of formal negotiations to tackle the problem of global warming. Srgjan Kerim "commends the spirit of compromise and cooperation shown by all parties during the discussions in Bali," according to a statement issued by his spokesperson. After the two-week Bali negotiations were extended for an extra day, delegates reached agreement on Saturday on both the agenda for the negotiations and a 2009 deadline for completing them so that a successor pact to the Kyoto Proto- col on greenhouse gas emissions can enter into effect in 2013. Under the so-called Bali Roadmap, key issues to be negotiated will be: taking

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 52 action to adapt to the negative consequences of climate change, such as droughts and floods; devising ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; finding ways to deploy climate-friendly technology; and financing adaptation and miti- gation measures. Thanking the Indonesian Government for its leadership during the process and for hosting the landmark event, Mr. Kerim said that he "believes that advancing further on this agreement in the forthcoming negotiations is of crucial importance." He intends to convene a high-level Assembly meeting - bringing together Member States, the private sector and civil society - on 11-12 February next year to bolster support for addressing climate change in partnership with the UN. Four major UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meetings to im- plement the Bali Roadmap are planned for next year, with the first to be held in either March or April. The negotiations process is scheduled to conclude in 2009 at a major summit in Copenhagen, Denmark.

TRANSIT NEW ZEALAND'S TRAFFIC CAMS NEW FOR WEATHER WEBSITE Issued at 12:40pm 21-Dec-2007 With the holiday traffic peaking over the next few weeks, you can now better plan your journey. Check out the new Transit traffic section and the day's weather on metservice.com. The live cameras, which are updated every minute, are the newest addition to the site. The section features 16 cameras in Auckland and five Citylink cameras in Wellington. Senior Market Manager at MetService, Craig Delany says, "Visitor numbers to metservice.com peak in the early afternoon, so the traffic section is ideal for people heading home from work - and it's real time." Transit Project Manager Deidre Hills says this is an exciting opportunity to keep travellers better informed. "Transit is planning to install more cameras in the near future to improve traveller information services," says Miss Hills.

Rain eases drought, but cherry growers not happy Posted at 6:56pm on 20 Dec 2007 More than 100mm of rain has fallen in some areas of Marlborough and Nelson and many parts of the country have received at least 30mm. That means green and growing pastures, and enough feed for the winter larder. New Zealand's biggest grape-growing area, Marlborough, has escaped a likely shutdown of a big irrigation scheme in its southern valleys. But not everyone in the region is happy about the wet weather. Cherry growers are facing losses at the end of the harvest season, as rain spoils the fruit. Agricultural climatologist Alan Porteous says the current La Nina weather pattern could mean a return of very dry conditions for some farmers in the New Year. Mr Porteous says dry areas include inland Otago, South Canterbury, the eastern Bay of Plenty and the Horowhenua-Kapiti coast. Copyright © 2007 Radio New Zealand Rain brings short-term bliss By KATHY WEBB - The Dominion Post | Thursday, 20 December 2007 Two days' rain has brought temporary relief to the driest areas of the North Island, but farmers are being warned to make plans to survive a potentially serious drought. Farmers - in a more optimistic mood after between 30 millimetres and 60 millimetres of rain fell on parched pastures - paid $5 more for a head for Waira- rapa lambs yesterday. However, soils are still short of water and likely to remain so for the rest of summer. Hawke's Bay farmers and pipfruit, grape and vegetable growers were pleased with the 50mm of rain the region got on Tuesday night and yesterday.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 53 CRAIG SIMCOX/Dominion Post FINALLY: Gladstone farmer Birgitta Harper and her dog Maggie enjoy the drought- breaking rain as it brings temporary relief to the driest areas of the North Island.

The chairman of the Hawke's Bay Drought Com- mittee, Hastings Mayor Lawrence Yule, called it "absolutely wonderful". Once the rain stopped, farmers would be shutting up pastures to grow winter feed, which had all been used up, he said. Wairarapa farmer and farm adviser Phil Gus- cott said the rain was more of a morale booster than a saviour. "To say we have had a tough year is really a big understatement. At least the rain finally, though brief, will buoy a few spir- its." Crop growth would get a boost, helping with animal feed. MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said soils would probably lose most of the benefit of the rain through evaporation during the next five days, "but while it was running, the grass was drinking". Further periods of rain bringing 30 to 50mm at a time could be expected every week or 10 days for the rest of the summer. That would keep grass growing in the lower North Island. The outlook was not so good for Central Otago, South Canterbury or Nelson- Marlborough. Ted Taylor, environmental manager for Greater Wellington regional council, said "things were getting pretty desperate" in Wairarapa till the rain arrived on Tuesday. "Water levels were what you would expect at the end of the summer. "Ground water is minimal and rainfall this year has been only about two-thirds of the normal average." Wairarapa was facing possibly its driest year since records began in 1964. Ag- riculture and Forestry Minister Jim Anderton urged farmers to plan for a potentially serious drought.

Climate change raising insurance premiums By Ashley Hall Fri Dec 21, 2007 1:58pm AEDT

Collapsed roofs, smashed windscreens, and sod- den carpets are just a few of the things in- surers fork out money for after a storm. The more they pay out, the more we pay them in premiums. The insurer Suncorp Metway yesterday announced that three separate extreme weather events since July had cost the company between $230 and $260 million. Suncorp's chief executive is John Mulcahy. "In July we saw some storms in New Zealand, which accounted for approximately $20 million, then there was the Lismore storm in October, where the cost to the group was approximately $60 million," he said. "When you add those two events to the Sydney event [severe storms], then you can see that the cost of the group is in the range of $230 to $260 million." Worsening climate Dr Penny Whetton from the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 54 says the weather is only expected to get worse as greenhouse gas emissions rise. "As the atmosphere warms up and can hold more moisture, heavy downfalls, when they occur, have the likelihood of being more intense, so that increases the risk of flash flooding events," she said. It is thought global warming may also ramp up the intensity of tropical cyclones and hail storms. Dr Whetton says it is difficult to accurately predict the intensity of future storms. "The main way that we can predict the future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are the results that come from our global climate models," she said. "But they produce information which is fairly broadscale, like hundreds of kilometres between the points where we have information, and severe weather can be much more local than that. "So, we actually have to use more indirect techniques to interpret what the climate models are saying to be able to say something about extreme weather events." Insurance companies are running their own set of figures, but just how much extreme weather events will push up the premiums is unclear, even to the in- surers.

A bee-utiful weekend ahead The Dominion Post | Saturday, 22 December 2007

ROBERT KITCHIN/Dominion Post WHAT'S THE BUZZ? The bloom of NZ's native Christmas tree attracts the humble bumble bee to Waitangi Park as Wellington begins to warm up. The Metservice is promising a beautiful weekend. The crimson bloom of New Zealand's native Christmas tree attracts the humble bumble bee to Waitangi Park as Wellington begins to warm up. The pohutukawa has burst into blossom around the city just in time to brighten up the festive season. But what's the buzz on the weather for the holiday? The forecast leading up to Christmas Day will see fine and settled weather over the main centres. "It's going to be a beautiful weekend," MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said. On Christmas Day, Auckland will have scattered rain through the middle of the day and can expect a temperature of 22 degrees celsius. MetService predicts that Hawke's Bay will remain fine all day as it misses out on a front that will be moving across the country. Eastern residents will bask in comfortable 25C temperatures. Those in Palmerston North waking early to peep into their Santa stockings will have rain in the morning, which should clear in the afternoon. A high of 21C is expected. Wellington is due to have rain overnight on Christmas Eve and will have lin- gering clouds for most of Christmas Day. The temperature will hover around 20C. Mr McDavitt said the month started off quite dry but last week's 40millimetres of rain topped up the gauges.

Mercury Rising 2007 Concert Cancellation Tuesday, 25 December 2007 It has been a trying two weeks for the organisers of Mercury Rising 07. The prevailing easterly conditions over the Coromandel have bought higher than average rainfall to the region. More rain is predicted over the coming week. The

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 55 impact of this weather has meant all work scheduled to apply site infrastructure since last Tuesday December 18 has not been completed. A decision was made after a site inspection this afternoon to cancel the New Years event for 2007. The chance of essential works not being completed before access is required is greater than the chance of the necessary access being completed in time for the event. Ticket refunds will be available from point of purchase. If the point of purchase is closed over the next few days the refunds will be available immediately upon reopening after the break.

Summer hail storm not unseasonable 26 December 2007 MetService says a hail storm which hit the Upper Hutt and Silverstream areas today was not unseasonal. Police are warning motorists driving in the area to take care in the icy conditions, particularly around the Moonshine Bridge. Forecaster Ian Miller says hailstones between eight and 10 millimetres in di- ameter fell and several southerly changes can be expected in the next few days. He says the Wellington area usually experiences changeable weather during December, but warm weather early in the month makes today's weather feel cooler than normal There has been only one report of minor damage to guttering as a result of the storm. The temperature has dropped to around nine degrees in the Upper Hutt area. © 2007 NZCity, NewsTalkZB

Making a Boxing Day splash Okareka's Danny Smith hits the water at Ti- kitapu. Picture: Stephen Parker 27.12.2007 Daily Post , Rotorua By JILL NICHOLAS A sudden torrential downpour at Tikitapu (Blue Lake) around midday did not deter Lake Okareka resident Danny Smith from taking the plunge. And he was moved to admit it was warmer in the water than out of it.

The picture of climate change Thursday, December 27, 2007 As the leaders of the G8 summit in Heiligendamm in Germany hammered the final communiqu on climate change, half a world away, in the small Pacific island country of Tuvalu, Sialafaga Talua, a born and bred islander pondered her shaky future on the islands, as she has always done again and again. Salafaga Talua has a difficult decision on her hands, to either pack her bags and leave Tuvalu for safer territories or stay and watch her country slowly sink under the rising sea levels in the Pacific and hope for the best. Scien- tific predictions from the Australian Government predict dire consequences for the island in the next 50 years. Other predictions say it could be sooner. So for Salafaga, both issues are not easy to deal with, but she is increasingly aware that something has got to give. Her trepidation is real, and is shared by most of the 10000 Tuvaluans who still reside on the Island. In 1997 census figures showed a population of 13000. Today, 10 years later, the population of Tuvalu has gone down by 3000, or almost 25 per cent down from the previous figure. Tuvaluans, who are worried about the future, have been leaving their island for other Pacific states like Fiji and New Zealand. The New Zealand Government has a scheme entitled Pacific Access Category or PAC that allows up to 75 Tu- valuans per year to settle in New Zealand as Climate Changed refugees.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 56 In the last few years press headlines in different parts of the world have highlighted Tuvalu's plight . The Guardian of London had a doomsday story headlined 'Farewell Tuvalu' on 29 October 2001. Since then there has a number of other equally doomsday stories with headlines like 'Tuvalu Going Down' again in the Guardian, in Feb 2002, and 'Tuvalu is drowning' on salon.com on 31 March 2006. This small island nation in the South Pacific Ocean, area 26 SQ metres and population 10000 people has become the living proof of the consequences of global warming and scientific predictions say Tuvalu is likely to completely disappear under water in less than 50 years. Taula Kapea, the scientific officer and acting Director of the Meteoro- logical Department in Tuvalu says the weather conditions in Tuvalu have started getting harsher with the intensity and number of cyclones increasing every year. When not raining, the strange weather phe- nomenon has seen some prolonged droughts during the dry season, he says. This has become a cause for concern. "The people are scared and worried about the harsh weather conditions. Such things have never happened before", he said. The result of this is that some people are now leaving Tuvalu, and settling in other Pacific nations as Cli- mate Change Refugees. "Some of the people who area leaving Tuvalu are renting out their houses and leasing their land to the Government or to small companies", he says. As for himself, his commitment is with Tuvalu and with his employer, the Gov- ernment and says he has no plans to leave and that he will stay behind. The greatest fear of migrating to another country, as far as he is concerned, is the loss of identity, loss of culture, language and everything that is Tu- valuan. He says this is the fear that everyone else on the island has, particularly the elders. When I put the same question to Salafaga Laula who is a radio journalist for Radio Tuvalu, and asked her whether she would consider relocating, Salafaga told me, "I am not proud to say so, but I would relocate". She elaborated by saying "If I relocate I lose my culture, my identity and language." In the same vein, she expresses her fear of an uncertain future of the island and expresses a strong desire to create a global awareness of the predicament her country is in and the consequences of global warming. She tells me of plans by an NGO called Overview, run by Shuuichi Endou, to plublish a book where photos of all the 10000 Tuvuluans will be published alongside interviews laying out the people's concerns and opinions about Climate Change. In the past, Tuvalu has threatened to sue Australia and the United States which it accused of being the major emitters of environmental greenhouse gases which causes climate change. Tuvalu wanted Australia and the United States to compensate them for the damage caused by greenhouse emissions. The litigation only stopped when the leadership of the country changed in 2005. Lalua is convinced that climate change is happening now and that the signs are for everyone to see. Her recollection of weather patterns from previous years is sharp. Several years ago, she says, high tides would only flood small parts of the islands in February and March. In recent years, she says, tides have been hitting the islands beyond March and April and well into May as was the case this year. She says the famous king tide which floods the airstrip, or the airport used to happen only for a brief period in the year.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 57 Flooding now lasts much longer, she says. Tourists, particularly film crews flock into the country this time of the year to take photos. Back to the G8 Summit's Leaders final communiqu on climate change, described on the G8 website as "A Breakthrough In Climate Change Leading industrialised nations agree to at least half global CO2 emissions by 2050.". While this may be a major political step, it is cold comfort to islanders like Tuvaluans who are witnessing freak weather conditions and some of whom are in the process of abandoning their homes, culture, tradition and simple island life to go and settle in bigger societies. Germany's Development Minister Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul is on record as saying: "The people who will suffer most from climate change are those who had the least to do with causing it, people in the poorest developing countries, Africa, small island nations in the South Pacific, and heavily populated river deltas in Asia will be particularly hard hit." It seems Tuvaluans are now paying the price.

Havoc for holidaymakers The Timaru Herald | Friday, 28 December 2007

JOHN BISSET/Timaru Herald PATCHY WEATHER: Cooking dinner yesterday afternoon at the Selwyn Motor Camp, while trying to avoid spots of rain, were Christ- church family Emilie, 4, left, Dale and Melissa Wright, 6. Holidaymakers in South Canterbury are on the receiving end of weather shifts, upsetting plans for outdoor fun. Four Peaks and Mt Peel even received a dusting of snow, and so far this month, Hughie has dropped 45.5mm of rain on Timaru -- and more is likely. The pattern of fine days followed by squally southerly changes is set to repeat, but the MetService says things should start to improve early in the new year. A check through the record books shows that rain at this time of the year is far from uncommon, despite our avowed memories of long, hot, December days.

Far North flooding led weather woes in 2007 5:00AM Friday December 28, 2007 By Julie Fitzgerald

Kaeo in the Far North suffered a double-whammy: flooding in March and again in July. Photo / Greg Bowker The main features of the year's weather, as recorded in MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt's diary: * December 06: Cold. The national average for December 2006 was 13.7C - beaten only by the 13.4C of Decem- ber 2004, and matching the cold summer start to 1946. * January 07: Dull. Sunny Nelson recorded its lowest January sunshine on record. The month's highest temperature was 33.5C in Napier and Hastings. * February: Dry in most areas. The exception was the Far North which was hit by a deluge which dumped 172mm on Kaikohe between February 5 and 7, stranding 500 people.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 58 * March: Unsettled. Snow fell near Lake Rotoiti. Heavy rain triggered the collapse of Mt Ruapehu's crater lake on March 18, sending the long-awaited lahar down the mountain without incident. Northland hit by 36 hours of extreme rainfall. The Kaeo River broke its banks, houses were washed away, and the approaches to the famed Kerikeri store were flooded. Heavy rain also fell in Auckland, Coromandel, the Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne. Insurance payouts for this storm totalled $12.5 million. * April: Generally dry and anticyclonic. * May: Warmest on record in both Australia and New Zealand. * June: Two polar outbreaks heralded the start of winter. Power lines in Southland were toppled by the combined effects of snow and wind. The second blast cut off Central Otago, forcing the opening of Queenstown's winter festival to be postponed. Reefton, on the West Coast, received 8cm of snow - its biggest fall since 1969. * July: The most damaging weather of the year, with Northland's flooding early in the month and Southland's at the end of the month. * August: Relatively quiet by winter standards. * September: Snowfalls on September 4 closed schools on the Canterbury Plains, but helped top up Otago and Canterbury ski fields which had been struggling to stay open. * October: Windy and wild, particularly in central parts of the country. The worst of the winds occurred on October 23, causing damage and power cuts in Southland. Roofs were lifted in Hawke’s Bay and trucks blown over on the region's roads. The next day a freak wind gust in Christchurch swept a 12-year-old schoolgirl into the path of a bus, killing her. * November: Lazy anticyclones produced extended dry periods over eastern and central districts. Hawke’s Bay farmers started talking of drought conditions again. It was not until June that the region's "drought of the century" finally broke. Direct losses to livestock farmers caused by parched conditions in the preceding 10 months have been estimated at around $300 million. * December: A month of contrasts, with the West Coast receiving more than a metre of rain in one week, while eastern and central parts remained parched.

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PHOTO COMPETITION Come on folks--- I haven’t received any entries yet, and yet we have had lots of weather. Please remember to put that digital camera in your bag ready for that rare cloud. Or even to send us your cellphone camera snaps. Bob McDavitt

Conditions Of Entry: SNAP WHAT YOU SEE. Entry is open to all individuals resident in NZ (but not the photo judging committee or their immediate family). Note date and place of the image. The deadline for entries is 30 June 2008. There is no entry fee. No more than ten entries accepted per entrant. In return for entering your image for consideration, Met Society re- serves the right to put your image (adequately acknowledged) on the http:// metsoc.rsnz.org web site. This means that we ask that you do not transfer publication rights for your entry to any third party until after the competition is finished. All other rights remain with the contributor. Have fun and keep checking our web site to see the new entries as they arrive during the four seasons! Image Content: Photos/images are to be taken in NZ between now and June 2008. Image must be a true reproduction of what the viewer could see in a single frame and not blended, modified or enhanced in any way. Cropping is allowed. If any identifiable people appear in the photos their written permission to submit must be included. Nothing illegal. There are no catego- ries and no theme, but if it isn't related to the weather it will not go far with our judges. Judging And Prizes No more than one prize per entrant. First prize is three years free subscription to Met. So- ciety (value $75). Second prize is two years subscription (value $50) and third prize one year subscription (value $25). Images will be voted on by a panel of judges consisting of our photo subcommittee plus an independent expert with a professional eye. Winners are to be announced on the Met Society web site on 1 August 2008, the start of the financial/ subscription year for the Society.

Email it to [email protected] or post to "Met Soc competition, unit 5, 53 Hamilton Road, Herne Bay Auckland".

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 60

Thanks to New York Times

(some answers require a general knowledge of USA culture and Star Wars)

The solution to this puzzle will be given in next newsletter or can be found at http://www.nytimes.com/learning/teachers/xwords/solution/20000202.html.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 61

WHAT IS THE M ET S OCIETY ?

The Society is a group of people from around New Zealand (and overseas) who like to share their fascination in weather and its antics. The Society was inaugurated at a meeting held in Welling- ton on 11 October 1979. The objects of the Society are to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather, and climate, particularly as related to the New Zealand region.

What does the Society provide? Access to a lively committee who are specially elected watchdogs for any contentious issue involving weather or climate. For members in the main centres: An e-group for communications plus organised meetings throughout the year on weather and climate topics. A quarterly newsletter full of member’s news and views plus descriptions of recent significant weather. An annual professional journal Weather and Climate , providing members access to the latest peer-reviewed thinking in the profession of meteorology. It is accepted internationally as the journal that gives recognition of the value of meteorological and clima- tological work done in New Zealand. It contains papers of interest to both professional and general readers. It also includes book reviews and explanations of the unusual. Members are invited to send in their own descriptions or photos. An annual conference. A web site http://metsoc.rsnz.org/

Who are the Society members? We are a mix of professionals and non-professionals. We come from a broad range of backgrounds, including: meteorologists, weather watchers and storm chasers Climatologists and environmentalists, Geographers and geophysicists, Atmospheric scientists, physicists and chemists hydrologists and ecologists sailors and divers trampers and climbers Aviators, flyers and glider pilots agriculturists and aquaculturists astronomers and cloud-admirers economists and engineers professional weather forecasters

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - September 2007 - Page 62

MEMBERSHIP A PPLICATION F ORM

Anyone with an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate of New Zealand may join us. We welcome applications from non- professionals and from those in disciplines related to the study of the atmosphere (oceanography, hydrology, etc.).

A brief description of the Society and a list of services are out- lined on the other side of this page. If you wish to apply for membership, please complete the form below.

I wish to apply for membership of the Meteorological So-

1. Name and Address (include email):

2. My interest in meteorology is:

3. I am willing to have my name and location published in Society documents: YES NO

4. Payment (annual): Ordinary members ...... $30.00* Institutional members ...... $90.00* Overseas posting surcharge ...... $15.00* Subscriptions are due on 1 August. * Rates may change at AGM. Our financial year is from 1 August to 31 July.

5. Signature: ______Date:______6. Please return this form, and a cheque (made out to Meteorological Society of N.Z. ) to The Secretary Meteorological Society of New Zealand P.O. Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141 New Zealand

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