FUEL ECONOMY A vehicle-by-vehicle assessment of the electrification potential for publicly-owned vehicles By Charles Satterfield, Nick Nigro, Eric Wood, Jim Jensen, Conner Smith, Ranjit Desai, and Yanbo Ge November 2020 Washington state is positioned to cost effectively electrify nearly all public vehicle procurements by the year 2035. With near-term policy action and targeted investments in infrastructure, the state can accelerate ongoing efforts to advance electric vehicles and solidify its leadership position in the electric vehicle market in the United States. The study team, led by Atlas Public Policy, along with the Washington State University Energy Program and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) evaluated the electrification potential for all publicly-owned vehicles in the state of Washington for the Washington Joint Transportation Committee (JTC). The goal of this report was to assess the potential of accelerating the conversion of Washington’s public fleets to electric vehicles. This report provides Washington with comprehensive, vehicle-specific electrification cost estimates both today and in the future along with actionable information on how to efficiently move forward with fleet electrification. The case for cost effectively electrifying nearly all public vehicle procurements in Washington state looks very favorable over the timeline extending through 2035. Over time, it is expected that the cost savings from increased EV use will substantially reduce the overall costs of operating the state's public vehicle fleet. Public fleets throughout the state have already made progress toward electrifying both passenger vehicles and transit buses and technology advances in the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sector are expanding the range of use cases where EV options are available. The cost of vehicle batteries is declining rapidly, resulting in more competitive vehicle options and lifetime cost avingss in many cases. An increasing number of EVs on the road will require a similar increase in EV charging infrastructure deployment, but savings are still possible when including the full cost of charging infrastructure. By leveraging existing funds through the Volkswagen Settlement and state programs like the Clean Energy Fund, fleets around Washington can reduce the upfront costs associated with vehicle electrification and charging station deployment. The state is well positioned to cement its leaderships position in the EV market in the United States with swift near-term policy action that establishes clear goals and policy priorities along with a timeline for widescale fleet electrification by the end of this decade. The EV market in the United States is rapidly expanding with the light-duty passenger vehicle and transit bus markets already approaching maturity. EVs have become an attractive alternative to conventional vehicles because they operate at three to four times the efficiency of a conventional vehicle, can have zero tailpipe emissions and very low lifecycle emissions, are fueled by a locally-generated, low-cost energy source, and offer exceptional performance and a quiet driving experience. A substantial expansion in the number of EV models available across all vehicle types is coming soon. This expansion of models will include options across all light-duty vehicle segments including ones where there is currently no EV alternative, such as pickup trucks. The expansion of the light-duty EV and EV charging market has been facilitated by EV sales requirements through California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, which was adopted in Washington in March 2020. Washington has long been an EV leader and as of August 6, 2020, the state had 58,619 registered EVs, making it the third-largest EV market in the country behind California and Florida [1]. In addition, EVs made up over seven percent of new light-duty vehicle registrations in July 2020 in Washington, more than three times the national average [2]. Growth in the passenger EV market has influenced efforts to electrify medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Transit bus electrification, in particular, is rapidly accelerating both across the United States and in Washington where King County Metro alone has committed to purchasing 120 electric transit buses worth $130 million, with other Transit agencies such as Link Transit, Everett Transit, and Spokane Transit among others all planning to expand existing electric bus operations through the end of 2020 [3, 4, 5, 6]. School bus model offerings have risen as well with increasing government funding being allocated for electrifying these vehicles. School districts in Washington are dedicated to furthering electrification efforts with at least 40 buses planned for deployment across the state. While other medium- and heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks have less well-develop markets, here too the potential for electrification is increasing as manufacturing costs continue to drop and new models and manufacturers enter the market. An additional area of consideration for Washingtons i hydrogen vehicles due to the potential to leverage low-cost renewable energy to generate low-cost hydrogen (see Box ES-1). Box ES-1: Consideration of Hydrogen Vehicles Due to the limitations present in the hydrogen sector including limited model availability, lack of sufficient refueling infrastructure, and high upfront and fuel costs, the study team did not consider hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as viable alternatives to internal combustion vehicles currently owned by the state and did not include them in comparisons of total cost of ownership. Hydrogen vehicles do offer some advantages compared to battery electric vehicles, particularly regarding vehicle range and refueling times, but costs for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles are not projected to be competitive with EVs in the near future in the absence of technological breakthroughs. Recommendation: The study team recommends the state consider standardized tracking of key data fields, such as fuel type, across state and/or local government entities, and establish requirements for public agencies to notify the Department of Licensing about all vehicles removed from public fleets or exempt plates that are transferred to other vehicles. The study team also recommends Washington consider standardizing data collection related to duty cycles or operations, including typical average and peak miles traveled and miles traveled per year by vehicles, via telematics systems or otherwise. This study sought to establish a baseline for the size and current electrification status of the public vehicle fleet in Washington state. To accomplish this, the study team collected data from multiple sources across Washington to create an inventory that includes 56,080 vehicles belonging to the public fleets studied including 12,987 stage agency vehicles, 9,222 public transit agency vehicles, 10,838 school buses, and an estimated 23,033 city and county vehicles. These vehicles were separated by their weight class as light-, medium-, or heavy-duty with each weight class representing approximately one-third of the total fleet. To ensure a comprehensive inventory and collect sufficient data for a total cost of ownership analysis, the study team requested data on vehicle make, model, year, fuel type, weight class designation (1-8), odometer readings, duty cycles, location, daily use range, maintenance costs, replacement plans, and Vehicle Identification Number (VIN). These data were not available for cities and counties and the study team relied on less detailed information from alternative fuels reporting data and a fleet questionnaire from a representative set of cities and counties across varying population sizes and locations. In total, detailed vehicle data was collected for 28,913 vehicles, including all types of light-duty vehicles and a wide range of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, which were included in the total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. A lack of detailed data for city and county fleets prevented their inclusion in the analysis, though the makeup and electrification potential of these fleets is likely similar to that of state agencies. The results of the inventory show that the baseline electrification level of the fleet as of 2020 is low relative to targets already established by Washington, with electric vehicles accounting for approximately three percent of the overall fleet. The share of electric vehicles was considerably higher for light-duty vehicles at more than seven percent. Figure ES-1 provides a breakdown of the electrification status across the total inventory by fleet. FIGURE ES-1: CURRENT ELECTRIFICATION STATUS OF PUBLIC FLEETS IN WASHINGTON Gasoline, Diesel, and Other Vehicles Battery Electric Vehicles 3.03% Total Fleet 96.97% 5.20% City and County Fleet 94.80% School Bus Fleet 99.99% 2.13% Public Transit Agency 97.87% Fleet State Agency Fleet 97.67% 2.33% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% This figure shows the current electrification status for all fleets included in the study as a percentage of vehicles that are either battery electric or plug-in hybrids. The study team collected and compiled disparate vehicle inventories from multiple sources, many of which followed different conventions for recording data. These inconsistencies across data sources presented challenges for creating a single, standardized inventory of public vehicles. Furthermore, the timeline of the data varied across sources, resulting in an inventory that reflects data from similar, but not precisely the same