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“Clustering:” Redistricting in Geographic Perspective

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“Clustering:” Redistricting in Geographic Perspective UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Introducing “Clustering:” Redistricting in Geographic Perspective A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Justin Mark Levitt Committee in charge: Professor Thad Kousser, Chair Professor Christopher Elmendorf Professor Gary Jacobson Professor Gerry Mackie Professor Isaac Martin 2016 This Dissertation of Justin Mark Levitt is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Chair University of California, San Diego 2016 iii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of my grandfather, Nissel “Sol” Levitt. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page ..................................................................................................................................... iii Dedication ............................................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ....................................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures (including Maps) ........................................................................................................ x Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................ xii Vita ...................................................................................................................................................... xiv Abstract of the Dissertation ............................................................................................................. xv Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Making Decisions in San Diego ..................................................................................................... 1 Overview of the Argument ............................................................................................................. 3 Connecting Geography and Representation ................................................................................ 6 Redistricting Institutions in Geographic Context ................................................................... 6 Redistricting Reform and its Contexts ...................................................................................... 7 Urbanization and the “Long Shadow of the Industrial Revolution” ................................. 10 Sorting ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Technological Advancement .................................................................................................... 13 Plan of the Work ............................................................................................................................ 15 Works Cited .................................................................................................................................... 17 v Chapter 2: Evaluating Clustering and Redistricting Criteria ........................................................ 19 A Political Windfall? ...................................................................................................................... 19 Clustering: Theory and Definition ............................................................................................... 21 Measuring Clustering ................................................................................................................. 22 Why Clustering? ......................................................................................................................... 24 Clustering in the American States ................................................................................................ 27 General Observations ............................................................................................................... 27 Patterns of Clustering ................................................................................................................ 28 Measurement in Redistricting ....................................................................................................... 30 Measurement and Representation Theory ............................................................................. 30 Compactness ............................................................................................................................... 32 Competitiveness ......................................................................................................................... 35 Communities of Interest and Race .......................................................................................... 37 Other Potential Measures and Constraints ............................................................................ 39 Constraints ............................................................................................................................. 39 Political Subdivisions ............................................................................................................ 40 Substantive Representation ................................................................................................. 42 Works Cited .................................................................................................................................... 55 Chapter 3: How Clustering Shapes Redistricting Tradeoffs ........................................................ 59 Washington and Arizona: A Tale of Two Commissions ......................................................... 60 vi Demographic Transition on the Ground ................................................................................... 62 Predicting the Effect of Clustering on Districts ........................................................................ 64 Direct Effects ............................................................................................................................. 64 Tradeoffs ..................................................................................................................................... 65 Research Design and Hypotheses ................................................................................................ 67 Hypotheses ................................................................................................................................. 67 Overview of Approach ............................................................................................................. 68 Automated Districting Procedure ........................................................................................... 69 Case Selection ............................................................................................................................. 70 Redistricting Criteria .................................................................................................................. 72 Cluster Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 73 Results .............................................................................................................................................. 74 Direct Effects ............................................................................................................................. 74 Tradeoffs ..................................................................................................................................... 75 Discussion ....................................................................................................................................... 79 Works Cited .................................................................................................................................... 93 Chapter 4: The Impact of Clustering on Redistricting Institutions ............................................ 95 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 96 Geography Reconsidered .............................................................................................................. 97 Rules of the Game ......................................................................................................................... 99 vii Institutional Preferences ............................................................................................................. 102 Research Design and Hypotheses .............................................................................................. 104 Method and Data ......................................................................................................................... 108 States, Plans, and Institutions ................................................................................................ 108 Redistricting Criteria ................................................................................................................ 109 Cluster Analysis .......................................................................................................................
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