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Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean Thank You for Your Interest in This ECLAC Publication

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Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean Thank You for Your Interest in This ECLAC Publication 2019 Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/publications ublicaciones www.cepal.org/apps 2019 Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2 Executive summary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Mario Cimoli Deputy Executive Secretary Raúl García-Buchaca Deputy Executive Secretary for Management and Programme Analysis Daniel Titelman Chief, Economic Development Division Ricardo Pérez Chief, Publications and Web Services Division The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual publication prepared by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2019 edition was prepared under the supervision of Daniel Titelman, Chief of the Division, while Ramón Pineda, Economic Affairs Officer, was responsible for its overall coordination. In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics Division, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain, and the Commission’s country offices in Bogotá, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C. The regional report was prepared with inputs provided by the following experts: Cecilia Vera, Claudia de Camino, Pablo Carvallo and José Antonio Sánchez (global economic trends and external sector), Esteban Pérez Caldentey (global liquidity), Claudio Aravena (economic activity), Ramón Pineda and Alejandra Acevedo (prices and monetary and exchange-rate policies), Jürgen Weller (employment and wages) and Jean Carpentier, Michael Hanni, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Noel Pérez, Swen Tellier (fiscal policy). Claudio Aravena, Pablo Carvallo, Albert Klein and Cecilia Vera were responsible for the economic projections, with the assistance of the ECLAC subregional headquarters and national offices. Sonia Albornoz was responsible for the statistical annex. Sonia Albornoz, Laurin Sponheuer and Carolina Zúñiga Juul collaborated as research assistants and in the preparation of statistical data and graphical presentation. The country notes are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Alejandra Acevedo, Olga Lucía Acosta, Maharouf Adedayo, Dillon Alleyne, Anahí Amar, Martín Cherkasky, Claudia de Camino, Christine Carton, Randolph Gilbert, Sonia Gontero, Enrique González, Michael Hendrickson, Sara Lynn Hess, Álvaro Lalanne, Jesús López, Sheldon McLean, Rodolfo Minzer, Carlos Mussi, Ramón Padilla, Machel Pantin, Juan Pérez, Ramón Pineda, Juan Carlos Ramírez, Juan Carlos Rivas, Indira Romero, José United Nations publication Antonio Sánchez, Jesús Santamaría, Nyasha Skerrette, Hidenobu Tokuda, Carlos Valdés and Francisco Villarreal. Michael Hanni, Albert Klein and José Luis Germán reviewed the Caribbean country notes. Claudio Aravena, Pablo Carvallo, Georgina Cipoletta and ISBN: 978-92-1-122035-3 (print) Juan Pablo Jiménez collaborated in the review of the country notes for the Latin American countries. ISBN: 978-92-1-004733-3 (pdf) ISBN: 978-92-1-358271-8 (ePub) Sales No.: E.19.II.G.19 LC/PUB.2019/25-P Distribution: G Explanatory notes Copyright © United Nations, 2019 - Three dots (…) indicate that data are missing, are not available or are not separately reported. All rights reserved - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. Printed at United Nations, Santiago - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specified. S.19-01096 - A slash (/) between years (e.g., 2013/2014) indicates a 12-month period falling between the two years. - Individual figures and percentages in tables may not always add up to the corresponding total due to rounding. This publication should be cited as: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2019 (LC/PUB.2019/25-P), Santiago, 2019. Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Publications and Web Services Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2019 Contents 3 CONTENTS Executive summary.................................................................................................................................................... 9 Chapter I Global economic trends .......................................................................................................................................... 19 This year the global economy will post the lowest growth rate since the global economic and financial crisis, and the outlook for 2020 is no better ............................................................................. 21 World trade has been progressively weakening amid trade tensions that have persisted with some fluctuations ................................................................................................................................... 22 Following a decline of 5% in 2019, the prices of many of the commodities exported by the region’s countries are expected to drop again in 2020 ....................................................................... 24 Global financial markets have been subject to great uncertainty in 2019, as reflected in a number of indicators ................................................................................................................................ 25 In 2019, the number of central banks adopting a looser monetary policy has increased and various authorities have announced fiscal injections to stimulate economies ...................................... 28 Bibliography .................................................................................................................................................... 30 Chapter II Global liquidity .......................................................................................................................................................... 31 Global liquidity continued to trend up in 2019 on the back of bank lending, but the international bond markets remained the principal source of financing ............................................................................. 33 Global debt continues to rise, hitting a new record ....................................................................................... 34 Surge in negative-yield bonds may affect the financial sector ...................................................................... 38 Global monetary and fiscal policy implications .............................................................................................. 40 Bibliography .................................................................................................................................................... 41 Chapter III The external sector.................................................................................................................................................. 43 Lower income from outward foreign direct investment, coupled with rising interest payments, has widened the deficit on the income account, which has been offset by growth in remittances, so the current account deficit has remained stable in 2019 .......................................................................... 45 Amid a slowdown in external and domestic demand, both exports and imports of goods contracted in 2019, leaving the trade surplus relatively stable ....................................................................................... 46 The region’s terms of trade are expected to worsen in 2019, especially for countries that export hydrocarbons and mining products ................................................................................................................. 48 The deficit on the services balance is expected to remain stable in 2019 in relation to GDP, although it will fall in nominal terms, amid slowing economic activity in the region ................................... 49 4 Contents Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) The deficit on the income balance widened in 2019, owing to lower revenue from outward foreign investment and higher interest payments, which were not offset by a decline in the profits of inward foreign investment .................................................................................................... 49 The surplus on the transfers balance, consisting mainly of remittances, has continued to grow strongly in 2019 and is approaching historic levels in relation to GDP ............................................ 50 Excluding Argentina, financial flows to Latin America have risen slightly thus far in 2019 ......................... 51 Bond issues on international markets have begun to rise in a context of low international interest rates as of the second quarter of 2019 ............................................................................................
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