ISSUE NO. 13, JULY 2017

7 REASONS WHY KENYAN VOTERS FAVOUR UHURU OVER RAILA

Dr. Robert Kagiri

In the coming hotly contested presidential elections, it has become increasingly apparent that Kenyan voters are leaning towards development and stability by voting in the Uhuruto team for a second and final term. Their informed bias towards the incumbent duo is based on their sound development record, statesmanship, global leadership, a policy of inclusiveness and cohesion, more new Jubilee voters, as well as a superior campaign strategy and preparedness. As a result, Raila is staring at the face of defeat as he prepares to take a permanent lifetime fishing trip to Bondo to enjoy his hard-earned, though fruitless, retirement.

Developmental Politics

"The economy, stupid" is a phrase that was The Kenyan voter expects to prosper from coined by Bill Clinton’s 1992 Presidential the full economic impact of these initiatives campaign strategist, James Carville and during President Kenyatta second term when became the defacto slogan for his campaign the railway will be extended to Kisumu and that is often repeated in American culture. It beyond. Furthermore, the prosperity is means that if the economy has been good, expected to be even more widespread during people don’t seek change as they are the second term as employment creation content with the administration in power. As moves to the centre-stage and at the heart of the economy continues to prosper under the next Jubilee administration priorities. President , the informed Following the delivery of the first new railway voter will most likely vote for continuance of in Kenya in 100 years voters no longer doubt what is working .For instance, President that President Kenyatta can deliver the Kenyatta has kick-started major promised one million plus jobs annually infrastructure projects such as the Madaraka especially by using his strategy of Express Railway, considerably reducing the entrenching devolution by partnering with cost of travel to Mombasa from Kshs 1200 to county governments to establish at least one 700, reducing the travel time and improving industry in every county. on convenience.

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The Makings of a Statesman student and business visas for up to five years for Kenyans travelling to the United President Kenyatta’s selfless devotion to States. This initiatives have endeared him to nationhood and ethnic cohesion sets him Kenyan’s both at home and in the diaspora. apart from the rest of the political elite. He has managed to shed the “political To cap his geopolitical triumphs, President kamwana” (greenhorn} tag to emerge as a Kenyatta earlier this year attended the G7 formidable statesman poised to leave a Summit, of the world’s most highly lasting legacy in Kenya’s history. His industrialized democracies, at Taorimina, extremely friendly, down to earth, pleasant Sicily, Italy. This follows a whirlwind of and charismatic presidential demeanor has diplomatic triumphs in hosting word leaders, endeared him to both friend and foe alike. including the United States President This calmly positive, guarded and disciplined Obama, His Highness Pope Francis, the self-control contrasts sharply with Mr.Raila Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who habitually comes across as angry, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vengeful and distressed - hardly the stuff that among numerous other luminaries. An even makes for inspired leadership. larger profile has been in the international trade and development where Kenya has Furthermore, it would be folly for one to won big particularly through its “Looking discount or underestimate the power of. For East” approach of close engagement with most voters, its better the president you know countries like China, where President Xi than to experiment with an untested Jinping has tapped Kenya as one of the key contender. History has proven time and time countries for rolling out his “One Belt One again that it’s extremely difficult to unseat Road” initiative for infrastructure growth, incumbents, particularly when there is no trade and development. compelling reason to do so, as is the case in Kenya. In any case, most voters are It has been reported that globally, the convinced that President Kenyatta, having diplomatic community paints a very positive smoothly navigated through the turbulent picture of Kenya’s foremost diplomat in waters and mastered the art of Kenyan enhancing Kenya’s international stature politics, is poised to become perhaps through his growing international status. His Kenya’s greatest statesman going forward ease, personal charm, friendliness, unique particularly given his relative youth. mein and pleasantly polished nature in the world stage has not gone unnoticed, and his Outstanding Global leader “star attraction” which has endeared him to the world community has been of great President Kenyatta’s astoundingly abrupt benefit to Kenya. The Kenyan voter makeover from “ICC suspect” to global therefore anticipates that its only but a leader has been nothing short of beginning of Kenya’s enviable positioning in breathtaking and remarkable. To borrow his global and regional geopolitics. own words, Uhuru pronounced that “They told us that the world will shun us, but today Inclusive Approach no country in the world avoids meeting the President of the Republic of Kenya. Unlike the NASA clique which has opted to brand Uhuruto’s supporters among the With a new Foreign Policy including the first Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities as similar ever Diaspora Policy in place, the Uhuru to Hillary’s Clinton’s clichéd “basket of administration has managed to draw in deplorables,” President Kenyatta has investments, summits and tourism to Kenya adopted a more inclusive approach of including attracting key agreements such as wooing even his foremost detractors. the recipricol extension of multiple entry Choosing an inclusive rather than

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confrontational approach has allowed Registration of Voters President Kenyatta to sway a huge percentage of voters in previous opposition There will be a big blame game between strongholds to his side by reorienting their “Baba” and team after losing in August in focus to development rather than unending regard to how Jubilee “stole the march” on but unproductive “vitendawili“ (riddles). To them in regard to voter registration. Of the borrow a phrase from Winston Churchill in 3.5 million newly registered voters, the only respect to the defunct Soviet Union, Mr.Raila county that voted for Raila that either met remains “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, their registration target or came close to it, inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a was Narok at 98 percent. As a result, Jubilee key.” That key is Raila’s own personal is poised to benefit from the registration interest. exercise by garnering at least 65 percent of these voters. Furthermore, Jubilee is now This negative world view of exclusiveness targeting some of the new voters that NASA and self-interest is “Baba’s Achilles Heel” actively recruited in the Coast, Western, while inclusion, which is the new normal, has Nyanza and Eastern regions with great become President Kenyatta aegis and path success. to a bolder brighter future. Normalization in this context means casting a wider net to It is as a result of this realization that the encompass all the now 44 tribes as opposed NASA bandwagon has changed its tune to ethnic and politically inspired isolation of towards interrogating the voter register in the targeted communities. In this respect Uhuru hope of reducing the Jubilee numbers at the has penetrated key opposition territories eleventh hour. Since Uhuru’s bedrocks have through an unrelenting campaign, and in so hauled in the most new voters and he’s doing, managed to debunk the exclusivist actively poaching NASA recruits, it has illusion of so called NASA “no-go” zones in become increasingly apparent that this twin the Coast, Nyanza, Western and Eastern strategy by the Uhuruto machinery will regions. upstage Raila who can expect to be “Naswad” (demolished) at the polls by these In addition, his performance has been new voters if they are swayed by Uhuruto delivered through an all-inclusive star overtures. It is this realization that recently studded cabinet that reflects both the prompted “Baba” to implore women to deny breadth and width as well as gender men conjugal rights from August 7th until dynamics of the Kenyan society. It consists they have voted, in a bid to buoy his of the likes of the indefatigable multitasking vulnerable voter numbers! Matiangi (Information, Education, Interior); the rigorously efficient Superior Campaign Strategy (Industrialization); the dynamic duo of and (Foreign The Uhuruto persistent scorched earth Affairs); the rationally effective late Gen. approach of relentlessly attacking the Nkassairy (Interior), eloquently resourceful “combat unpreparedness” of Raila at every Eugene Wamalwa (Water and irrigation) and stop has dampened enthusiasm among the youthful exuberance of Dan Kazungu NASA stalwarts and reinforced the pre- (Mining) among others. It is also not lost on existing popular view that an opposition loss keen observers that UK has entrusted his is imminent. This perception is most likely to entire campaign to a son from an “opposition translate into lower turnout by dispirited Raila zone” in the name of . supporters. The Uhuruto winning strategy is brilliant in its simplicity of holding on their strongholds while steadily nipping away at least 15-35 percent of voters from all the opposition counties - and it’s working!

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Preparedness for the Elections

The African Union Commission Chairperson Million plus 1 vote (recently revised to the Moussa Faki Mahamat, in expressing his more insane 15 million plus 1). They neglect satisfaction with the IEBC’s preparedness for Franklin D. Roosevelt wise counsel that a delivering credible and peaceful elections, good leader can’t get too far ahead of his appeared perplexed that Mr. Odinga has followers and their capacity by setting reservations on IEBC’s preparedness. On impossibly unrealistic goals. Furthermore it is the other hand, President Kenyatta appeared foolhardy to attack two formidably populous to be ready and prepared to participate in the and determined fronts, namely Central and General Election on August 8 under IEBC. Rift Valley, at the same time and expect to He has also stated that he is willing to hand win. This was Adolf Hitler’s undoing when he over power to Raila in the unlikely event that embarked on an ill-considered two pronged he loses. attack on Britain and Russia at the same time with deadly consequences. It therefore appears that the NASA is ill prepared for the last sprint to the election. As the looming defeat ushers in Mr.Raila’s Their foot soldiers seem to be fatigued and long overdue retirement, and Kenya’s expert acutely starved of adequate resources at this on political theatrics takes his final bow in penultimate stage. As we are reminded by August, he will finally have ample time in both Napoleon and Frederick the Great, “an Bondo to mull “over the undeniably army marches on its stomach” meaning a miserable and miserably undeniable fact” group of soldiers or workers can only fight or that his vast knowledge of “methali” function effectively if they have been well fed. (proverbs), vitendawili, and “Kutangaza However the NASA rank and file have kandanda” (football commentary), has never, become emaciated and dispirited following not once even, been of practical use to the pummeling they have undergone from anyone. That’s the knowledge and reality the better provisioned Uhuru campaign. Mr.Raila will unfortunately carry over to his Supplies have dropped to a trickle and the hard-earned”golden years”, along with the Uhuruto blitzkrieg across “their territories” dashed hopes and aspirations of those who has bewildered and downgraded their ability have over the years consistently and ill- to effectively execute their campaign. advisedly thrown their lot with him. Meanwhile, most Kenyan voters will continue This disastrous situation is compounded by to place their trust in Uhuru’s by voting for the fact that Mr. Raila troops continue to rely practical and tangible developmental politics on a failed 40 versus 2 tribe strategy which is as opposed to Mr.Raila’s perpetual illusions expected to yield the wildly delusional 10 of grandiosity which have now come to a shuddering unremarkable grand finale!

©Africa Policy Institute, July 2017

Dr Robert Kagiri, Africa Policy Institute Director & advisor on Strategy, Governance and Policy Management.

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API Research Notes Series publishes scientifically valid research outputs that cannot be considered as full research or methodology articles. Its aim is to provide a forum for sharing data, useful information and perspectives on topical issues of concern to the policy and research communities. Articles published under this series cut across disciplines, and include some short articles or opinion pieces that have already been published by the experts of the Africa Policy Institute. Some are brief publications, updates to previous work, abridged versions of research agendas or concept notes or brief reports of policy forums.

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