TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT

LAND AT GRANGE ROAD, CWMBRAN

WM MORRISON SUPERMARKETS PLC & ARVIN MERITOR

TTHC Ltd St James Building 79 Oxford Street Manchester M1 6EJ Telephone (0161) 235 8600 Facsimile (0161 235 8601 www.tthc.co.uk

TTHC Ref: M09007-03B Date: 1 February 2011

© COPYRIGHT: The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of TTHC

CONTENTS Page No

1.0 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1

2.0 TRANSPORT POLICY CONSIDERATIONS 4

3.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE SITE AND THE LOCAL HIGHWAY NETWORK 8

4.0 PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND NON-CAR CONSIDERATIONS 16

5.0 THE OVERALL MASTERPLAN 22

6.0 DETAILED MORRISONS PROPOSALS 26

7.0 DEVELOPMENT TRAFFIC 30

8.0 PRODUCTION OF ASSESSMENT FLOWS 40

9.0 PHASE 1 OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENTS 46

10.0 ASSESSMENT OF THE FULL MASTERPLAN SCHEME 52

11.0 MITIGATION 59

12.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 64

TABLES

Table 1 Peak Hour Comparison of Manual and ATC Traffic Volumes Table 2 Bus Services Serving Site Table 3 Suggested Acceptable Walking Distances Table 4 Foodstore Trip Rates and Generated Traffic Flows Table 5 McIver and Dickinson Trip Type Proportions Table 6 Adopted Foodstore Trip Type Proportions Table 7 Trip Type Generation from Proposed Store Table 8 Small Units Trip Generation Table 9 Hotel & Restaurant/Pub Trip Generation Table 10 Office Trip Generation Table 11 TEMPRO Growth factors Table 12 B&Q Committed Development Traffic Table 13 Sainsburys Extension Committed Development Traffic Table 14 Brookfield Committed Development Traffic Table 15 Northern Roundabout - 2013 Base ARCADY Results Table 16 Northern Roundabout - 2013 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 17 Tudor Rd Roundabout - 2013 Base ARCADY Results Table 18 Tudor Rd Roundabout - 2013 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 19 Southern Roundabout - 2013 Base ARCADY Results Table 20 Southern Roundabout - 2013 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 21 4 Arm Roundabout - 2013 Base ARCADY Results Table 22 4 Arm Roundabout - 2013 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 23 Central Site Access Junction – 2016 With Redevelopment PICADY Results Table 24 Northern Roundabout – 2016 Base ARCADY Results Table 25 Northern Roundabout – 2016 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 26 Tudor Rd Roundabout – 2016 Base ARCADY Results Table 27 Tudor Rd Roundabout – 2016 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 28 Southern Roundabout – 2016 Base ARCADY Results Table 29 Southern Roundabout – 2016 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 30 4 Arm Roundabout – 2016 Base ARCADY Results Table 31 4 Arm Roundabout - 2016 With Redevelopment ARCADY Results Table 32 Northern Roundabout Improvement Scheme – 2013 ARCADY Results Table 33 Northern Roundabout Improvement Scheme – 2016 ARCADY Results Table 34 Southern Roundabout Improvement Scheme – 2016 ARCADY Results

FIGURES

Figure 1 Site Location Plan Figure 2 Local Area Plan Figure 3 AM Peak Hour As Counted Traffic Flows (Vehs) Figure 4 PM Peak Hour As Counted Traffic Flows (Vehs) Figure 5 Saturday Peak Hour As Counted Traffic Flows (Vehs) Figure 6 AM Peak Hour As Counted Traffic Flows (PCUs) Figure 7 PM Peak Hour As Counted Traffic Flows (PCUs) Figure 8 Saturday Peak Hour As Counted Traffic Flows (PCUs) Figure 9 Cycle Route Plan Figure 10 5km Cycle Isochrone Figure 11 1.2 / 2 km Pedestrian Walking Isochrone Figure 12 Central Site Proposed Access Junction Figure 13 Northern Site Access to Morrisons Figure 14 AM Peak Hour Grange Road Closure Re-Assignment Figure 15 PM Peak Hour Grange Road Closure Re-Assignment Figure 16 Saturday Peak Hour Grange Road Closure Re-Assignment Figure 17 AM Peak Hour With Grange Road Closure Figure 18 PM Peak Hour With Grange Road Closure Figure 19 Saturday Peak Hour With Grange Road Closure Figure 20 Primary Catchment Area Figure 21 Adopted Zone System Figure 22 Electoral Ward Boundaries Figure 23 Competing Foodstores Figure 24 Zone Loading Points Figure 25 AM Peak ‘New’ Development Trips Figure 26 PM Peak ‘New’ Development Trips Figure 27 Saturday Peak ‘New’ Development Trips Figure 28 PM Peak ‘Transferred’ Development Trips Figure 29 Saturday Peak ‘Transferred’ Development Trips Figure 30 AM Peak Passby Development Trips Figure 31 PM Peak Passby Development Trips Figure 32 Saturday Peak Passby Development Trips Figure 33 PM Peak Diverted Development Trips Figure 34 Saturday Peak Diverted Development Trips Figure 35 AM Peak Northern Site Development Trips Figure 36 PM Peak Northern Site Development Trips

Figure 37 Saturday Peak Northern Site Development Trips Figure 38 Hotel & Restaurant/Pub Trip Distribution Figure 39 Office Trip Distribution Figure 40 AM Peak Hotel & Restaurant/Pub Development Trips Figure 41 PM Peak Hotel & Restaurant/Pub Development Trips Figure 42 Saturday Peak Hotel & Restaurant/Pub Development Trips Figure 43 AM Peak Office Development Trips Figure 44 PM Peak Office Development Trips Figure 45 AM Peak Central Site Development Trips Figure 46 PM Peak Central Site Development Trips Figure 47 Saturday Peak Central Site Development Trips Figure 48 2013 AM Peak Growthed Flows Figure 49 2013 PM Peak Growthed Flows Figure 50 2013 Saturday Peak Growthed Flows Figure 51 2016 AM Peak Growthed Flows Figure 52 2016 PM Peak Growthed Flows Figure 53 2016 Saturday Peak Growthed Flows Figure 54 AM Peak B&Q Committed Development Traffic Figure 55 PM Peak B&Q Committed Development Traffic Figure 56 Saturday Peak B&Q Committed Development Traffic Figure 57 AM Peak Brookfield Committed Development Traffic Figure 58 PM Peak Brookfield Committed Development Traffic Figure 59 Saturday Peak Brookfield Committed Development Traffic Figure 60 AM Peak South Sebastopol Committed Development Traffic Figure 61 PM Peak South Sebastopol Committed Development Traffic Figure 62 Saturday Peak South Sebastopol Committed Development Traffic Figure 63 2013 AM Peak Hour Base Flows Figure 64 2013 PM Peak Hour Base Flows Figure 65 2013 Saturday Peak Hour Base Flows Figure 66 2016 AM Peak Hour Base Flows Figure 67 2016 PM Peak Hour Base Flows Figure 68 2016 Saturday Peak Hour Base Flows Figure 69 2013 AM Peak Growthed Flows With Grange Road Closure Figure 70 2013 PM Peak Growthed Flows With Grange Road Closure Figure 71 2013 Saturday Peak Growthed Flows With Grange Road Closure Figure 72 2016 AM Peak Growthed Flows With Grange Road Closure

Figure 73 2016 PM Peak Growthed Flows With Grange Road Closure Figure 74 2016 Saturday Peak Growthed Flows With Grange Road Closure Figure 75 2013 AM Peak Hour With Redevelopment Flows Figure 76 2013 PM Peak Hour With Redevelopment Flows Figure 77 2013 Saturday Peak Hour With Redevelopment Flows Figure 78 2016 AM Peak Hour With Redevelopment Flows Figure 79 2016 PM Peak Hour With Redevelopment Flows Figure 80 2016 Saturday Peak Hour With Redevelopment Flows Figure 81 Northern Roundabout Improvement Scheme Figure 82 Southern Roundabout Improvement Scheme

APPENDICES

Appendix A Traffic Count Data Appendix B Personal Injury Accident Data Appendix C Masterplan Layout Appendix D Arvin Meritor HGV Swept Paths Appendix E Grange Road Widening Swept Paths Appendix F Morrisons Site Layout Plan Appendix G Morrisons Service Vehicle Swept Paths Appendix H Morrisons Travel Plan Appendix I Foodstore TRICS Output Appendix J A3 TRICS Output Appendix K Ward/Zone Calculations Appendix L New Trip Assignment Calculations Appendix M Transferred Trip Assignment Calculations Appendix N Individual Zone Transferred Trip Routeings Appendix O Calculation of Passby Trips Appendix P Calculation of Diverted Trips Appendix Q Hotel & Restaurant/Pub TRICS Output Appendix R Office TRICS Output Appendix S DIY TRICS Output Appendix T Residential TRICS Output Appendix U ARCADY Output for Northern Roundabout 2013 Appendix V ARCADY Output for Tudor Rd Roundabout 2013 Appendix W ARCADY Output for Southern Roundabout 2013 Appendix X ARCADY Output for 4 Arm Roundabout 2013 Appendix Y PICADY Output for Central Site Access Junction Appendix Z ARCADY Output for Northern Roundabout 2016 Appendix AA ARCADY Output for Tudor Rd Roundabout 2016 Appendix AB ARCADY Output for Southern Roundabout 2016 Appendix AC ARCADY Output for 4 Arm Roundabout 2016 Appendix AD ARCADY Output for Northern Roundabout Improvement Scheme Appendix AE ARCADY Output for Southern Roundabout Improvement Scheme TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT – LAND AT GRANGE ROAD, CWMBRAN Wm MORRISON SUPERMARKETS PLC & ARVIN MERITOR

1.0 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

1.1 This Transport Assessment (TA) has been prepared by TTHC Ltd on behalf of Wm Morrison Supermarkets plc (Morrisons) and Arvin Meritor Braking Systems in support of a hybrid planning application (detailed and outline) for the redevelopment of the Arvin Meritor site at Grange Road, Cwmbran.

1.2 The existing 10.4 hectare site comprises the Arvin Meritor manufacturing operation. Arvin Meritor is to modernise its factory, and as part of the rebuild and refurbishment, will rationalise its operation into the southern part of the site (Site 3), thus releasing the northern (Site 1) and central (Site 2) parts for redevelopment. Morrisons is to occupy the northern section (Site 1) of this released land (next to Edlogan Way), with the remaining central section (Site 2) being made available for future redevelopment.

1.3 The Morrisons foodstore proposals were originally the subject of planning submissions in 2009, and it was subsequently requested by Torfaen County Borough Council (TCBC) (the Local Planning Authority) that the remainder of the Arvin Meritor site should also be considered at the same time as part of a wider masterplan. The resulting masterplan, which includes a partial closure of Grange Road, and provides an expansion of Cwmbran town centre, has been identified through discussions with TCBC. Through these discussions the central section of land (between Morrisons and the new Arvin Meritors building – Site 2) has been identified as suitable for future mixed use development, with office and hotel/restaurant development having been identified as the preferred use.

1.4 The application is for full permission for the Morrisons store (Site 1) and for the works to the Arvin Meritor factory (Site 3), and outline permission for the new office and hotel/restaurant development (Site 2).

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1.5 The site will be redeveloped in phases. Firstly, Arvin Meritor will vacate the northern portion of the site, Site 1 (currently a car park and non-maintained tennis courts and bowling green), releasing it for development by Morrisons. Morrisons build and Arvin Meritor works can then progress in tandem. The Arvin Meritor operation will relocate to Site 3. Once the Arvin Meritor works have been completed, the middle section of the site can then be released for redevelopment.

1.6 This TA outlines the transport and highway related implications of the masterplan proposals. As this will be a phased development it firstly considers the impact of an operational foodstore in tandem with the rebuilt / refurbished Arvin Meritor factory (Phase 1), and secondly, the overall impact of the masterplan proposals with the later addition of the office and hotel/restaurant development.

1.7 The TA has been prepared in accordance with extensive pre-application discussions with TCBC Planning and Highways Departments. The assumptions and methodology employed within the TA have regard to the

audit response on the 2009 application. Account has also been taken of the advice, guidance and policy set out in the TCBC Local Plan, Planning Policy for Wales – Technical Advice Note 18 ‘Transport’ (TAN 18), and the emerging Torfaen LDP.

1.8 Including this introductory chapter, the report is divided into 12 sections in total, with the remaining chapters as follows:

• Section 2 Transport Policy Considerations • Section 3 Description of the Site and Local Highway Network • Section 4 Public Transport and Non-Car Considerations • Section 5 The Overall Masterplan • Section 6 Detailed Morrisons Proposals • Section 7 Development Traffic • Section 8 Production of Assessment Flows • Section 9 Phase 1 Operational Assessments

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• Section 10 Assessment of the Full Masterplan Scheme • Section 11 Mitigation • Section 12 Summary and Conclusions

1.9 Having provided an introduction to the proposals, we will now describe the Transport Policy considerations.

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2.0 TRANSPORT POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

National Policies

Planning Policy for Wales – Technical Advice Note 18 - Transport 2.1 This document aims to secure the provision of transport infrastructure and services, which improve accessibility, build a stronger economy, improve road safety and foster more sustainable communities. This includes:

• integration of transport and land use planning; • integration between different types of transport; and • integration of transport policy with policies for the environment, education, social justice, health, economic development and wealth creation.

2.2 It goes on to state that integration of land use planning and development of transport infrastructure has a key role to play in addressing the environmental aspects of sustainable development, in particular climate change and the outcomes identified in the Assembly Government’s Environment Strategy. Integration can help the Assembly Government achieve these environmental outcomes, together with its wider sustainable development policy objectives by:

• promoting resource and travel efficient settlement patterns; • ensuring new development is located where there is, or will be, good access by public transport, walking and cycling thereby minimising the need for travel and fostering social inclusion; • managing parking provision; • ensuring that new development and major alterations to existing developments include appropriate provision for pedestrians (including those with special access and mobility requirements), cycling, public transport, and traffic management and parking/servicing; • encouraging the location of development near other related uses to encourage multi-purpose trips;

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• promoting cycling and walking; • supporting the provision of high quality, inclusive public transport; • supporting provision of a reliable and efficient freight network; • promoting the location of warehousing and manufacturing developments to facilitate the use of rail and sea transport for freight; • encouraging good quality design of streets that provide a safe public realm and a distinct sense of place; and • ensuring that transport infrastructure or service improvements necessary to serve new development allow existing transport networks to continue to perform their identified functions.

2.3 The location of major travel generating uses including employment, education, shopping and leisure can significantly influence the number and length of journeys, journey mode and the potential for multi-purpose trips. Development plans should seek wherever possible to identify locations for such developments, which offer genuine and easy access by a range of transport modes and therefore:

• allocate major generators of travel demand in city, town and district centres and near public transport interchanges, as a means to reduce car dependency and increase social inclusion by ensuring that development is accessible by public transport for those without access to a car; • contain policies which direct facilities for which there is a regular need to be located close to their users in local and rural centres, ensuring easy access for all, especially by walking and cycling; such facilities include primary schools, doctors surgeries and local convenience shops; and • consider the potential for changing existing unsustainable travel patterns, for example through a co-ordinated approach to development plan allocations and transport improvements.

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2.4 Chapter 9 states that the transport assessment process should include the production of a ‘Transport Implementation Strategy’ (TIS) for the development. This should set objectives and targets relating to managing travel demand for the development and set out the infrastructure, demand management measures and financial contributions necessary to achieve them. The TIS should set a framework for monitoring the objectives and targets, including the future modal split of transport to development sites. These requirements are addressed within this TA and its accompanying Travel Plan.

Local Policies

Introduction 2.5 TCBC ceased work on the Torfaen Unitary Development Plan [UDP] in 2005 and commenced work on the Torfaen Local Development Plan [LDP]. The Deposit LDP is due to be published for consultation in Spring 2011.

2.6 While the LDP is being prepared the Adopted Torfaen Local Plan (July 2000) and the adopted Gwent Structure Plan (March 1996) will form the basis for development control purposes. These plans will remain in place until they are superseded by the Torfaen LDP.

Torfaen Local Plan 2.7 The principle objective of the Local Plan is to promote the creation of an efficient, safe, transportation network for all users by:- 1) Identifying and implementing highway improvements to the existing network. 2) Identifying and implementing traffic management schemes. 3) Improving the provision of parking within built-up areas. 4) Identifying and implementing improvements to the public transport systems. 5) Encouraging and implementing alternative forms of transport links.

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Gwent Structure Plan 2.8 The Gwent Structure Plan recognises that Transport is essential to modern life, and sets out the following;

“In developing the transport system the county council will determine priorities principally by the extent to which schemes contribute to:

i) The economy of the county, in particular areas of high unemployment; ii) Improving the quality of life for residents.

The extent to which schemes fulfil the following criteria will also influence priorities:

i) Preservation and enhancement of the natural and built environment, in particular removal of traffic from historic towns and villages; ii) Relief of traffic congestion; iii) Assistance to urban regeneration and access to areas of development; iv) Assistance to public transport or other modes reducing energy consumption and pollution.

For small schemes a high priority will be given to reducing accidents and to road safety.”

2.9 It is confirmed that the proposed development will take due account of the above policies.

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3.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE SITE AND THE LOCAL HIGHWAY NETWORK

The Site & Surrounding Area

3.1 The location of the site (the ‘Site’) is indicated in Figure 1, and is shown in a more local context in Figure 2, which also shows the three sub-site areas.

3.2 The redevelopment proposals result from the modernisation and refurbishment of Arvin Meritor’s factory on Grange Road and the resulting release of land. The existing town centre boundary (as defined in the Local Plan) currently runs immediately along the western side of St David’s Road, but TCBC has produced a draft masterplan for the site which proposes that the town centre expand eastwards onto the Arvin Meritor site. This proposal is also included in TCBC’s Preferred Options document for a new Local Development Plan for the Borough.

3.3 The overall Site is effectively divided into three sub-sites: Morrisons (the Northern Site – Site 1); office and hotel/restaurant development (the Central Site - Site 2); and the remaining Arvin Meritor operation (the Southern Site – Site 3). The Site is bounded by Edlogan Way to the north, the existing rail line to the east, St David’s Road to the west and Crane industrial operation to the south.

3.4 The nearest primary shopping frontage (as defined in the Local Plan) and the town’s bus station lie just over 100 metres walking distance to the west of the Site, with intervening commercial and leisure uses, including Vue Cinema, between the shopping area and the Site. It was always the intention that further development to the east of the Vue Cinema site would take place in the future and as such it was a requirement of that scheme to make provision for a high level pedestrian connection across St David’s Road. The linkage of the walkway with the Morrisons site is discussed later in this report.

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3.5 Vehicular access to the Site is currently from Grange Road (via a number of access points). The access arrangements will change as part of the masterplan, and these arrangements are also described later.

3.6 Immediately north of the Site is Cwmbran Rail Station and its associated parking (approx 100 spaces). The rail line runs in a north / south direction and runs the length of the eastern perimeter of the Site.

Local Highway Network

3.7 Highway access to the Site is currently taken off Grange Road. Grange Road is a single carriageway road which currently serves a local access function only for the industrial interests located off it. It runs parallel to St David’s Road and has a connection to it at either end. Grange Road varies considerably in width: from approximately 5.2 metres in the central section to 9.3 metres towards its southern end. There is a footway along the eastern side of Grange Road and street lighting along its entire length. Grange Road is subject to a 30mph speed restriction.

3.8 Edlogan Way forms the northern boundary of the Site and provides a route eastwards to the A4042, the Croesyceiliog Bypass. Edlogan Way is also a single carriageway (approximately 7.3 metres width) and has footways on both sides. The southern footway is shared with a cycle lane that runs east to west over the rail bridge. Edlogan Way has street lighting in the vicinity of the Site and is subject to a speed restriction of 30mph.

3.9 St David’s Road is a single carriageway of approximately 9 metres. It has footways along both sides, street lighting illuminates its entire length, and it is subject to a 40mph speed restriction. This road serves a distributor road function. It also serves traffic using the town centre one way system.

3.10 St David’s Road connects three roundabouts in central Cwmbran adjacent to the Site. The northern and southern most of these three roundabouts connect to either end of Grange Road.

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3.11 The northern roundabout links St David’s Road with Grange Road, Edlogan Way and Caradoc Road.

3.12 The middle roundabout links St David’s Road with Tudor Road and Glyndwr Road. Tudor Road is a one way street that only allows westbound movements from St David’s Road. No traffic therefore enters the roundabout from Tudor Road. Glyndwr Road is also a one way street but unlike Tudor Road traffic can only enter this roundabout from Glyndwr Road.

3.13 The southern-most roundabout links St David’s Road with Grange Road, Llantarnam Road, Llywelyn Road and Llanfrechfa Way.

3.14 Cwmbran has two A class roads either side of the town centre. The A4051 Cwmbran Drive is located approximately 250 metres west of the main shopping area of Cwmbran. The majority of residents in Cwmbran live on the opposite side of the A4051. Approximately 1.5 km to the east of the town is the A4042 Croesyceiliog Bypass. Both the A4051 and the A4042 offer good connections to the wider highway network, including Pontypool and Abergavenny in the north, and also Newport and the M4 motorway network to the south.

3.15 Cwmbran Town Centre has a number of one way streets that surround the core shopping area and require vehicles visiting the centre to drive round the town in a clockwise direction as shown in Figure 2.

3.16 Llywelyn Road is situated on the western side of town and is a one way route northbound from it’s junction with Tudor Road. Caradoc Road is a one way eastbound route along the northern perimeter of the town up to the junction with Glyndwr Road. Beyond this junction two way traffic movements resume to the roundabout with St David’s Road. Glyndwr Road is a one way route southbound only and provides access to Cwmbran Bus Station. To the south of the town centre is Tudor Road which is a one way route permitting

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westbound movements along the southern boundary of the core shopping area.

3.17 Cwmbran Town Centre offers parking free of charge. Despite the presence of a number of car parks located in central areas, general observations indicate that overall supply to demand is relatively low.

Existing Traffic Flows

3.18 As part of the 2009 application for the foodstore, manual turning movement traffic counts were commissioned at the following roundabout junctions:

• St David’s Road (north & south)/ Grange Road / Edlogan Way / Caradoc Road (herewith referred to as the ‘Northern Roundabout’) • St Davids Road / Grange Road / Llanfrechfa Way / Llywelyn Road / Llantarnam Road (herewith referred to as the ‘Southern Roundabout’) • Llantarnam Road / Court Road / Llantarnam Road (south) / Henllys Way (herewith referred to as the ‘4 Arm Roundabout’)

3.19 These counts were undertaken on Friday 13th and Saturday 14th March 2009. As the 2009 planning application originally supported the foodstore proposals alone, the previous TA had considered the impact of the development during the Friday PM peak period and the Saturday lunchtime peak period i.e. the peak retailing periods.

3.20 The traffic counts were undertaken for the following time periods:

• Friday PM Peak Period (16:00-18:00) • Saturday Peak Period (12:00-14:00)

3.21 Further traffic counts have been undertaken to supplement this data given that this TA tests the impact of the wider masterplan proposals.

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3.22 The mix of land uses considered under the masterplan requires that development impact on the weekday AM peak operating conditions must also be considered. Therefore further traffic surveys at the same locations were undertaken on Tuesday 22nd June 2010 between 0700 and 0930 hours.

3.23 In order to support the surveys undertaken in 2009 an Automatic Traffic Counter (ATC) was placed on St David’s Road to the south of the Northern Roundabout. The ATC recorded data for a period of seven days from Monday 21st June to Sunday 27th June 2010, and provides a check that the peak hour traffic volumes adopted for assessment purposes are appropriate.

3.24 Finally, because the revised materplan access arrangements would now result in a greater traffic impact on the St David’s Road / Tudor Road / Glyndwr Road roundabout (herewith referred to as the Tudor Road Roundabout), turning movement counts have also been undertaken at this junction. The previous application would result in traffic accessing Morrisons from both the north and south St David’s Road / Grange Road roundabout junctions with very little development traffic travelling along St David’s Road between these two roundabouts. However, the masterplan access arrangements would see each of the three sub-sites with their own separate connection back to St David’s Road.

3.25 The Tudor Road Roundabout was surveyed on Friday 3rd and Saturday 4th December 2010 for the same three peak periods as had already been established at the other junctions.

3.26 All count data from 2009 and 2010 is attached at Appendix A.

3.27 The peak hours determined from the manual counts were 1600 – 1700 hours for the Friday PM peak and 1200 – 1300 hours for the Saturday peak. For the AM peak, different peak hours were observed at the individual junctions (some 0800 – 0900 hours and some 0815 – 0915 hours). For the purpose of

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a robust assessment, the individual junction peaks have been taken forward for assessment purposes.

3.28 The recorded 2009 and 2010 background vehicle flows are presented in Figures 3 to 5 for the AM, PM and Saturday peak hours respectively. The flows have also been converted into passenger car units (PCUs), whereby all HGVs and buses are represented by 2 PCUs, thus taking full account of the greater impact that these larger vehicles have. The PCU flows are presented at Figures 6 to 8.

3.29 The resulting peak hour PCU flows on St David’s Road have been compared against the peak hours recorded from the June ATC data as detailed below in Table 1.

Two Way PCU Flow St David’s Road (south of Edlogan Way) ATC Manual Turning Counts

Weekday AM peak 1288 (5 day average) 1345 1375 (pk Fri) Friday PM peak 1523 1618

Saturday peak 1435 1613

Table 1 - Peak Hour Comparison of Manual and ATC Traffic Volumes

3.30 The above comparison confirms that the ‘as counted’ peak hour traffic flows adopted for analysis are robust.

3.31 General observations indicate that all junctions are currently operating within capacity during the peak periods under consideration, albeit it with some intermittent, but short lived, queuing.

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Accident Data

3.32 In order to establish the existing highway safety record within the immediate vicinity of the Site an assessment has been made using Personal Injury Accident (PIA) data. Highway safety has been assessed for the five year period which includes 1st May 2005 to 30th April 2010.

3.33 Recorded PIA data has been obtained from Gwent Police (courtesy of Capita Symonds and Buchanan Computing). A plot of the accident locations and a copy of the data are provided in Appendix B.

3.34 A total of nineteen accidents were recorded, resulting in twenty one casualties. All accidents were classed as ‘Slight’.

3.35 No accidents occurred on Grange Road. Eight accidents occurred at or in the vicinity of the Northern Roundabout. Three accidents occurred at the junction of Glyndwr Road with Tudor Road (just west of the Tudor Road Roundabout). Two accidents occurred at the junction of St David’s Road with Newgale Row (between Tudor Road and the Southern Roundabout). The remaining six accidents occurred separately at other locations within the study area.

3.36 Of the eight accidents that occurred at the Northern Roundabout three incidents occurred on St David’s Road northern arm (recorded as Avondale Road within PIA reports). The accident data indicates one of these was a pedestrian being struck when crossing the road. The likely causation of the second of these was a motorcyclist failing to give way at the roundabout entry, and the third was a rear end shunt in the vicinity of the roundabout entry.

3.37 One incident occurred on the Edlogan Way arm of the junction and involved a pedestrian being struck by a vehicle.

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3.38 One incident occurred in the vicinity of the Grange Road exit when a cyclist collided with a vehicle which was preparing to exit the roundabout.

3.39 Three incidents occurred on the Caradoc Road arm of the roundabout. Two were rear end shunts and the third appears to have involved a vehicle failing to give way to a cyclist already on the roundabout.

3.40 Although all accidents are classed as Slight, two involved pedestrians and two cyclists. Given the 40 mph speed limit on St David’s Road, this junction may benefit from a reduced speed limit. As part of TTHC’s review of this junction it has also been noted that it does not meet modern deflection criteria, which is therefore likely to result in high entry speeds and a greater potential for accidents. This issue is examined later within the report.

3.41 Elsewhere, the three accidents at the junction of Glyndwr Road with Tudor Road all appear to be rear end shunts. At the junction of St David’s Road and Newgale Road one incident involved a vehicle turning right out of the side road into the path of an oncoming vehicle, and one involved a rear end shunt behind a vehicle waiting to turn into the side road.

3.42 Of the six remaining accident locations no particular trend is noticed. It is noted that one accident involved a pedestrian being struck while crossing St David’s Road at the pedestrian crossing near Redbrook Way.

3.43 In summary there were a total of 19 recorded accidents in five years (an average of 3.8 accidents per annum). Three accidents involved pedestrians and three involved cyclists. Vehicle speed may have been an influencing factor on some of the accidents, particularly on St David’s Road, although the severity of all accidents was recorded as Slight.

3.44 Having described the existing traffic flows and conditions, we will now describe public transport, cycling and walking considerations.

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4.0 PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND NON-CAR CONSIDERATIONS

Existing Bus Services

4.1 Grange Road is not directly served by public transport but buses do route via Edlogan Way and St Davids Road immediately adjacent to the Site, and Cwmbran bus station is also located within easy walking distance.

4.2 All local and longer distance bus services access the bus station which is located just over 100 metres from the Site.

4.3 However, depending on which sub-site is being accessed, and direction of travel (outbound or inbound), the Edlogan Way and St David’s Road bus stops may provide even more convenient stop locations. The bus services using these stops are summarised in Table 2 below.

No. Route Approx Service Frequency

2. Cwmbran – Croesyceiliog – Cwmbran Every 15 mins

3. Cwmbran - Llanyravon Hourly

8. Cwmbran – Upper Cwmbran - Cwmbran Hourly

13. Cwmbran – Forge Side Every 2 Hours

14. Cwmbran – Forge Side Every 2 Hours

Blackwood – Newbridge – Pontypool - Hourly Cwmbran 21.

22. Ebbw Vale – Pontypool – Cwmbran Hourly

29/29B Cwmbran - Newport Hourly

Table 2 – Existing Bus Services

4.4 Cwmbran bus station is located just over 100 metres away from the western boundary of the Site. With consideration of the three sub-sites the walk distances are:

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• Northern Site (Site 1) – 110 metres • Central Site (Site 2) – 150 metres • Southern Site (Site 3) – 410 metres (to existing office entrance)

4.5 With regard to the more distant Southern Site, the bus stops on St David’s Road provide much closer stop locations at 190 and 290 metres. However, a walk distance of 410 metres, particularly to a bus station serving all bus destinations, is considered an acceptable walk distance. This is the current walk distance to the existing Arvin Meritor offices (the office entrance position remains unchanged under the rebuild scheme). A walk distance of 400 metres is generally considered an acceptable walking distance to a bus stop (Ref: Institution of Highways and Transportation Document “Guidelines for Planning for Public Transport in Developments”).

4.6 There are a total of 29 bus services that operate from the bus station, the majority of which are operated by Stagecoach. Buses from the bus station serve numerous local and regional destinations including, Pontypool, Newport, Chepstow, Cardiff, & Bristol. There are also opportunities to access bus services which operate on Sundays.

4.7 The attractiveness of public transport as an alternative to the car is affected by the quality, frequency and reliability of the services available. As Cwmbran bus station is located within easy walking distance of each of the three sub- sites, it is considered that the Site is within an area where the existing bus services are of good standard, and which offer a realistic choice of means of transport.

Existing Rail Services

4.8 Cwmbran railway station is situated off Edlogan Way immediately north of the proposed Site. The walk distances to each of the three sub-sites are:

• Northern Site (Site 1) – 250 metres

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• Central Site (Site 2) – 490 metres • Southern Site (Site 3) – 710 metres (existing)

A walk distance of 800 metres to a rail station is generally considered an acceptable walk distance.

4.9 The station is part of the British railway system owned by Network Rail and is operated by Arriva Trains Wales. It lies on the Welsh Marches Line from Newport to Hereford.

4.10 The station provides links to Newport and Cardiff with journey times of 15 minutes and 35 minutes respectively.

4.11 As Cwmbran’s rail station is located within easy walk distance of each of the three sub-sites, it is considered that the Site is located in an area where access by rail services is also possible.

Cycle Facilities

4.12 In respect of cycling, TAN 18 states that cycling has potential to act as a substitute for shorter car journeys in urban or rural areas, or form part of a longer journey when combined with public transport. It adds that Local authorities should encourage cycling through, amongst other actions:

• ensuring that new development encourages cycling by giving careful consideration to location, design, access arrangements, travel ‘desire lines’ through a development, and integration with existing and potential off-site links;

• securing provision of secure cycle parking and changing facilities in all major employment developments, including retail and leisure uses, town centres, transport interchanges, educational and health institutions;

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• adopting minimum cycle parking standards within their parking strategies - for commercial premises these standards should include cycle parking for both employees and visitors

4.13 The SUSTRANS cycle route network in the vicinity of the Site is shown in Figure 9. This indicates that a ‘traffic free cycle route’ is available via Caradoc Road which provides excellent links between the rail station and two National Cycle Routes. The Caradoc Way cycle route is shown as a Local Link and runs along the footway. It runs from east of the railway line to the Forge Hammer roundabout junction where it links with the National Routes 49 and 492: both known as The Celtic Trail. The Celtic Trail offers routes to the north and south of Cwmbran.

4.14 In relation to cycling, it is generally recognised that this mode can provide a genuine alternative to the car, particularly for journeys under 5km. Such a catchment area takes in a great number of residential properties around the Site, effectively covering the majority of Cwmbran as shown in Figure 10.

4.15 The potential catchment area for cycling will of course be greater for employee journey to work trips than it is for foodstore customers.

Pedestrian Facilities

4.16 TAN 18 states that local authorities should promote walking as the main mode of transport for shorter trips through the use of their planning and transport powers. Consideration should be given to ways in which areas and developments can be made more attractive and safer for pedestrians through the arrangement of land uses and design policy.

4.17 It adds that when preparing development plans, design guidance, master plans and in determining planning applications authorities should, amongst other action:

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• ensure that new development encourages walking as a prime means for local journeys by giving careful consideration to location, access arrangements and design, including the siting of buildings close to the main footway, public transport stops and pedestrian desire lines;

• ensure the adoption of suitable measures, such as wide pavements, adequate lighting, pedestrian friendly desire lines and road crossings, and traffic calming;

• identify and protect existing and proposed routes suitable for the use of cyclists and walkers. These may include recreational or commuter routes alongside river banks, canal towpaths and disused railway lines.

4.18 With consideration to walking distances, the Institute of Highways and Transportation (IHT) produced their ‘Guidelines for Journeys on Foot’ in 2000 which suggests that around 80% of walk journeys and walk stages in urban areas are less than 1 mile with the average length of a walk journey being just 1km (0.6 miles).

4.19 Walking is the most important mode of travel at the local level, and has the greatest potential to replace car trips for distances up to 2 kilometres.

4.20 The distance that people are prepared to walk depends on the journey purpose. The IHT guidance also provides ‘suggested acceptable walking distances’. The walking thresholds presented in Table 3 are suggested:

Commuting, Town Centre school & Elsewhere sightseeing Desirable 200 500 400 Acceptable 400 1000 800 Preferred Maximum 800 2000 1200

Table 3 – Suggested Acceptable Walking Distances (metres)

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4.21 In respect of direct trips to/from home for foodstore customers, the walk distance home will be limited by the weight of the goods they purchase. However, many shoppers without access to a car will chose to walk to the store and return home by bus or taxi. The limit of the walk in distance to the store can therefore be taken as 1.2km (‘Elsewhere’ – preferred maximum).

4.22 For employee commuting trips (i.e. not weighed down by shopping) the above table indicates that the potential walk catchment is up to 2km. These potential 1.2km and 2km catchment areas are indicated in Figure 11.

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5.0 THE OVERALL MASTERPLAN

5.1 A copy of the Site masterplan is attached at Appendix C.

5.2 The masterplan area extends across Grange Road and St David’s Road.

5.3 The northern end of Grange Road (adjacent to the Northern [Site 1] and Central [Site 2] sites) will be largely stopped up, and direct highway accesses will be provided to each of these sites from St David’s Road. In the case of the Northern Site this will be taken directly off the Edlogan Way roundabout (via a realigned Grange Road approach). The Central Site (Site 2) will be accessed via a new simple priority junction located approximately 150 metres north of the Tudor Road roundabout. As can be seen in the plan this allows an extension of the pedestrian area so that it abuts St David’s Road between these two access junctions. This area will be lit for security.

5.4 Pedestrian linkages across St David’s Road will be greatly enhanced with both an extension to the existing pedestrian walkway from the cinema, bridging across St David’s Road, to link to the Northern Site, and also a reduction in the speed limit on this section of St David’s Road (from 40mph to 20mph) in tandem with a raised speed table and designated pedestrian crossing areas. A controlled pedestrian crossing of Edlogan Way will be provided to improve linkages to the rail station.

5.5 Pedestrian linkages will also be provided between the Northern and Central Sites so that they are not only linked to the town centre, but also to each other.

5.6 The Arvin Meritor operation will be rationalised and contained within the Southern Site (Site 3). It will be accessed from the southern section of Grange Road which will effectively become a cul-de-sac. Given its industrial nature there will be no connection between it and the rest of the masterplan area with screening between the two.

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5.7 The Northern Site (Site 1) will contain a Morrisons foodstore and petrol filling station (pfs), and two small units for A1/A3 use. It is the subject of a full application and the details of its site layout are discussed in the following chapter. For the other two sites, a summary is provided below of the general layout principles which will be followed within the full application submitted for Site 3 and the outline application submitted for Site 2.

Southern Site (Site 3)

5.8 Although the Arvin Meritor operation will be rationalised and compressed in terms of the floorspace it occupies, the business is not shrinking. Arvin Meritor have stated that staff numbers and service vehicle activity are expected to remain the same, other than that resulting from any natural growth of the business (there will be no step change in activity).

5.9 The Arvin Meritor office and WAG buildings will be retained (the WAG building lies outside the application site and remains unaffected by the proposed development with the exception of a tidy up of its parking provision). These buildings front on to Grange Road. The factory refurbishment and rebuild will sit behind the office building. All staff and visitor parking will be located on the south side of the Arvin Meritor building. The service yard will be located on the north side.

5.10 The plan submitted in support of the full application for Site 3 shows a 330 space car park for Arvin Meritor. Whilst this is a reduction on current provision, there is currently excess provision, and the parking numbers are based on demand taking full account of the shift change overlap. In line with current provision, the WAG building will retain 40 spaces.

5.11 Parking for the disabled, cyclists and motorcyclists will be provided in line with Wales Parking Standards, and will be conveniently located close to building entrances.

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5.12 Access to/from the service yard will be via a one way route around the building in a clockwise direction. Inbound goods vehicles will route to the end of Grange Road which will be diverted into the service yard. Outbound goods vehicles will return along the eastern side of the factory and via a loop road round the south side of the car park, back to Grange Road at the southern limit of the site.

5.13 There is only one small section (of 40 metres length) where two way HGV operation will occur before the road widens again to over 9 metres, and clear visibility for exiting HGV’s means that they should not turn out if there is an approaching inbound HGV.

5.14 Given the location of the access point to the car park there will be a 160 metre section where inbound HGVs might meet an outbound car (as they do at present). Although tight, there is sufficient width for these vehicles to pass, and given overall numbers concerned, this will only occur occasionally. Typical daily HGV activity is around 30 – 35 HGVs per day, most of which is spread throughout the period 0600 and 1800 hours. Even allowing for some growth in productivity, typical hourly activity will only be 3 – 4 HGVs per hour.

5.15 Appendix D contains vehicle swept path tracking to confirm these movements can be achieved.

5.16 There is one further section of Grange Road where road width is restricted and does not permit two way HGV passage. This is on the bend of Grange Road on its approach and entry to the Southern Roundabout. This means that if there is an HGV waiting to enter the roundabout there is insufficient room for one to exit on to Grange Road. Given that the masterplan proposals will see a switch of all existing Grange Road activity to this Southern Roundabout, and that there are other HGV users of the route, as part of the overall proposals this section of highway will be widened to rectify this existing deficiency, and permit two way HGV passage. HGV swept path tracking is attached at Appendix E.

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Central Site (Site 2)

5.17 This site will consist of a hotel and pub/restaurant and two separate office blocks. The application is for a 60 bed hotel plus 680 m2 Gross Floor Area (GFA) pub/restaurant, and 4,500 m2 GFA B1 office use (1,700 m2 and 2,800 m2) although given the outline nature of the application for Site 2 the Masterplan proposals for this area are indicative at this stage.

5.18 There will be large areas of open space including a public square.

5.19 Parking will be provided in line with the Wales Parking Standards. The masterplan shows that this can be achieved with a total of 225 spaces. Parking for the disabled, cyclists and motorcyclists will be conveniently located close to building entrances.

5.20 Vehicular access to the Central Site will be via a simple priority junction. The layout is indicated in Figure 12 at 1:500 scale. This access will sit immediately south of the speed table on St David’s Road and hence a ghost island arrangement (which permits higher speeds) would not be appropriate. The interaction of turning vehicles at this junction will help provide a transition in the traffic environment for vehicles exiting the Tudor Road Roundabout and entering the speed table area. Given the straight alignment of St David’s Road, clear visibility sight lines are easily achieved.

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6.0 MORRISONS DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS (SITE 1)

6.1 Full planning consent is sought for the Northern Site and this is described in more detail below. A copy of the site layout is attached at Appendix F.

The Scheme

6.2 The proposed Morrisons foodstore has a GFA of 6,860 m2 and a Retail Floor Area (RFA) of 3,317 m2. This is marginally smaller than that which was the subject of the 2009 application. It also has a 6 pump pfs and two small units each of 139 m2 which will be sub-let for A1/ A3 use. There are a total of 488 parking spaces provided.

6.3 The store itself is located at the south east corner of Site 1 with two entrances: one located at the north westerly corner of the store for easy access from the car park; and one located on the western side in a direct line route for pedestrians approaching from the rest of the town centre. The two small units are also situated on this direct line pedestrian route, and between the store and the town centre.

6.4 The pfs is located on the north side of the site.

Staff and Customer Vehicular Access Strategy

6.5 Vehicular access to the Northern Site will be directly off the Northern Roundabout with a realignment of the existing Grange Road approach. As discussed previously, the continuation of Grange Road south will be terminated and the road formally stopped up.

6.6 The proposed access arrangements (at 1:500 scale) are indicated at Figure 13. This indicates a two lane entry to the Northern Roundabout. The access then feeds into an access spine road that runs along the northern edge of the car park with two points of access into the car park (both mini roundabouts) to help provide for more rapid dispersal of traffic. The pfs is located on the north

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side of this spine road and the two mini roundabouts provide one way entry and exit to the pfs.

6.7 The first mini roundabout on entry to the site is located approximately 45 metres from the exit of the Northern Roundabout with 37 metres stacking distance between the two. The mini roundabout has been designed to minimise queuing, and capacity testing shows that queuing is minimal with no blocking back issues between the junctions.

Servicing Strategy

6.8 As indicated on the site layout plan, service vehicles will access the service yard via the site spine road. The service yard incorporates a 25m turning circle and two loading bays. The spine road has been designed to accommodate HGV swept paths as indicated in the attached plans at Appendix G.

6.9 Morrison’s stores of this size typically receive around 12 deliveries per day, although only around half of these are full size articulated vehicles. The service area proposed is the same as that promoted at other new stores and is capable of accommodating all service demand.

Parking Provision

6.10 The Wales Parking Standards for food retail stores above 2,000 m2 GFA is a maximum of 1 car space per 14 m2 GFA.

6.11 The standards also seek 6% of this standard for disabled parking as a minimum provision.

6.12 By application of these standards to the floorspace of 6,860 m2 GFA the maximum car parking provision is 490 spaces (proposed provision is 488 spaces). The proposed layout includes for 30 disabled spaces. The

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Morrisons car park will provide parking for linked trips with the town centre as well as permitting use by Vue Cinema customers.

6.13 For cycles, the parking standards state that provision should be made for one short stay and one long stay cycle spaces per 500 m2. This equates to provision for 14 short and 14 long stay cycles. These will be conveniently located to the shop entrances.

6.14 In respect of motorcycles, the parking standards suggest a general standard for all land uses of 5% of the car parking provision. For a car park of this size this would equate to 24 motorcycles which is clearly well above any reasonable demand levels. From Morrisons experience a more suitable allocation of 5 spaces is proposed.

6.15 As indicated above, Morrisons are willing to make their car park available for general town centre shopping subject to a maximum length of stay which will not apply in the evenings to permit cinema patrons to use the car park which is much more convenient than existing car parks.

Facilities for Cyclists and Pedestrians

6.16 The layout provides for a direct line traffic-free pedestrian and cycle route from the front of the store back to St David’s Road. From here both at-grade and footbridge crossings of St David’s Road are provided on the south side of the cinema. The footbridge would connect with and extend from the Vue Cinema walkway which was constructed in anticipation of a future connection across St David’s Road. These crossing provide direct connections to the bus station and the rest of the town centre. The walk distance from the store entrance to the bus station is just 220 metres: well within easy walking distance.

6.17 These pedestrian connections form part of the overall masterplan for the wider site.

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6.18 Further pedestrian routes are provided within the car park and north towards Edlogan Way and the rail station.

Travel Plan

6.19 In conjunction with the proposals, Morrisons would adopt and promote a Travel Plan amongst all staff. This Plan is attached at Appendix H. It is based on the company-wide Travel Plan for a consistent and fair approach, but adapted to account for local circumstances.

6.20 The Plan sets out Morrisons policy on ‘green travel’ with the aim of reducing the reliance upon the private car and to provide alternative means of travel.

6.21 The Plan covers both staff and visitor travel, but of course the main focus is on staff travel as this is the trip which can most readily be influenced. By their very nature, supermarkets will always be accessed by car for heavy shopping unless the shopper does not have a car available to them. The focus for customers within the Plan is therefore providing them with information on alternative modes, and making access by alternative modes as simple and convenient as possible.

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7.0 DEVELOPMENT TRAFFIC

7.1 This TA details the impact of the first operational phase (Arvin Meritors operations relocated to the Southern Site [Site 3] and Morrisons open and trading on the Northern Site [Site 1]), and then the impact of full development of the masterplan site (including Site 2). This chapter details the traffic generation and routeing for each of the elements of development.

Southern Site (Site 3)

7.2 As detailed previously, although the Arvin Meritor operation is shrinking in terms of floorspace occupied, staffing and production are expected to remain the same, and therefore traffic generation is expected to remain the same: only its assignment on the local highway network will change.

7.3 Currently traffic accesses the Arvin Meritor site (and the adjacent industrial operation) from both Northern and Southern Roundabouts. However, under the masterplan, all traffic will be rerouted to the Southern Roundabout. This re-assignment of the existing ‘as counted’ flows is detailed in Figures 14, 15 and 16 for the AM, PM and Saturday peaks respectively.

7.4 The resulting background flows with the Grange Road stopping up in place are detailed in Figures 17, 18 and 19 for the AM, PM and Saturday peaks respectively.

Northern Site (Site 1)

Trip Generation

7.5 Conventional assessment periods for foodstores are the Friday PM peak and the Saturday afternoon peak. However, given the nature of the other uses within the masterplan area, the weekday AM peak has also been assessed.

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7.6 Given that the proposed store is similar (albeit slightly smaller) in size as that previously assessed for the 2009 application, the agreed TRICS trip rates (trips/100 m2 RFA) from that assessment have been adopted again. The equivalent trip rates for the AM peak have also been extracted. The TRICS output is attached at Appendix I.

7.7 These trip rates are detailed below in Table 4 along with the resultant traffic flows for a store of 3,317 m2 RFA.

Trip Rates (per 100 m2 RFA) Trip Generation

In Out Total In Out Total

AM Peak Hour 7.122 4.691 11.813 236 156 392

PM Peak Hour 12.550 13.296 25.846 416 441 857

Saturday Peak Hour 13.078 13.679 26.764 434 454 888

Table 4 – Foodstore Trip Rates and Generated Traffic Flows

7.8 It should be noted that the introduction of a foodstore does not necessarily result in new trips on the local highway network. Some trips to the store will already be travelling on the local highway network passing or routeing close to the site, or will be transferred from other stores. There are recognised procedures in this regard that TTHC adopt in the assessment of Morrisons stores.

7.9 It is widely accepted that the majority of shopping trips to new retail stores are already using the road network and that in transferring to a new store they simply redistribute within the network. This is particularly the case in weekday PM peak periods. Studies from Professor G McL Hazel and from McIver and Dickinson have split trips to retail centres into categories based on their characteristics. These categories are as follows:-

New a new trip which has not been made before and is therefore new to the network.

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Transferred a single purpose shopping trip which used to have a trip end at a competing store but which has transferred to the new store.

Diverted a multi-purpose trip which did not previously pass the store but which diverted from its route to make an intermediate visit to the proposed store.

Passby any trip which passed directly the site of the store and which makes an intermediate visit to the store.

7.10 It should be noted that the studies actually suggest that in general the proportion of new shopping trips to new foodstores is zero or very close to zero. The McIver and Dickinson research suggests that the proportions set out in Table 5 below are typical.

Trip Type Weekday Saturday Peak Peak Transferred 60% 70% Diverted 25% 20% Passby 15% 10%

Table 5 – McIver and Dickinson Trip Type Proportions

7.11 However, in order to provide a robust assessment, a proportion of 10% new trips has been adopted with an adjustment to the Transferred proportion accordingly. Based on the above research the proportions for each category have been assumed to be as set out in Table 6 below.

7.12 There is no equivalent research for the AM peak period. However, trips to a foodstore at this time of day would be expected to be made up of a much higher proportion of staff journey to work trips, or customer passby trips on route to work. The following simplified and robust proportions have been assumed for the AM peak: 85% New and 15% Passby.

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Trip Type AM Peak PM Peak Saturday New 85% 10% 10% Transferred - 50% 60% Diverted - 25% 20% Passby 15% 15% 10%

Table 6 – Adopted Foodstore Trip Type Proportions

7.13 The total store related trips shown in Table 4 have thus been split into the adopted trip types as shown in Table 7 below.

Total Number of Trips Trip Type AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour

In Out Total In Out Total In Out Total

New 201 132 333 42 44 86 43 45 89

Transferred 0 0 0 208 221 429 260 272 532

Diverted 35 23 59 62 66 128 43 45 89

Passby 0 0 0 104 110 214 87 91 178

Total 236 156 392 416 441 857 434 454 888

Table 7 – Trip Type Generation from Proposed Store

7.14 Separate consideration has been given to the two small units which will be located within the Morrisons site (2 x 139 m2 GFA). These will be let for A1, A2 or A3 use. For the purposes of this assessment the worst case A3 use has been assumed.

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7.15 Interrogation of the TRICS database indicates limited site surveys for such small units. Weekday PM trip rates have been extracted, and the equivalent activity for the other two time periods under consideration has been estimated. Of course, given its location adjacent to the proposed foodstore a very high proportion of customers would be expected to be already visiting the site i.e. ‘linked’ trips, rather than new and additional to the highway network. For the purposes of this assessment 50% of trips are assumed to be linked to the foodstore. The TRICS data is attached at Appendix J and the resulting trip assumptions are detailed below in Table 8.

Trip Generation

In Out Total

AM Peak Hour 5 5 10

PM Peak Hour 9 5 14

Saturday Peak Hour 10 10 20

Table 8 – Small Units Trip Generation

7.16 The above trips are treated as new and additional, and for purposes of trip distribution and assignment have been considered together with the ‘New’ foodstore trips.

Trip Distribution and Assignment

7.17 In order to determine the distribution of the ‘New’ and ‘Transferred’ trips associated with the proposed store, a gravity model has been produced.

7.18 The Primary Catchment Area (‘PCA’) for home based shopping trips, as shown by the 10 minute off-peak drive time isochrone, has been generated and is shown in Figure 20. This is used to calculate the area from which most trips to the store will come from. Whilst this is an estimate, minor changes to the catchment area are unlikely to significantly influence the overall distribution of trips.

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7.19 The next stage in the gravity model process is to divide the catchment area into zones. The zone boundaries have been chosen such that it would be reasonable to assume drivers from any household within each zone would use the same route to/from the proposed store.

7.20 The adopted zone system is shown in Figure 21. The electoral ward boundaries within the PCA are shown on Figure 22 and these will be used to determine the likely number of trips from each zone.

7.21 The gravity model uses household car ownership data for the wards within each zone in combination with an inverse proportional weighting factor relating to the drive time from each zone to the proposed store. It should be noted that the car ownership data has only been used for trip distribution purposes and not to make adjustments or allowances within the overall trip generations.

7.22 Car ownership information for the relevant wards has been extracted from 2001 Census Data and drive time information has been based on predicted journey times by Microsoft MapPoint and site observations to produce the isochrone plan. The resulting ward/zone calculations are detailed in Appendix K.

7.23 The calculations in Appendix L for the ‘New’ trips show the production of a drive time attraction factor for each zone. This calculation is based on the assumption that the closer you are to the Site, the more likely you are to travel to it, such that a zone which is half of the distance (to the Site) of another zone will generate twice as many trips.

7.24 As discussed earlier, an allowance has also been made for the location of competing foodstores. Competing foodstores with at least 2000 m2 net retail area and convenient free parking spaces have been chosen on the basis that they serve part of the catchment area, whether actually located within it or not. The locations of the competing foodstores in relation to the proposed foodstore are shown in Figure 23.

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7.25 The ‘Transferred’ trip calculations also make use of an attraction factor. This factor is a direct relationship between the drive times to the proposed foodstore site and that of the nearest competing foodstore for each zone. The resulting calculations are included in Appendix M.

7.26 Clearly, there will be some trips which are currently passing close to the application site in order to travel to one of the existing stores within Cwmbran but which would transfer to the new store. This can result in some turning movements decreasing whilst others increase.

7.27 Figure 24 shows the loading points for trips from each zone on to the highway network area of interest. Due to the one way system some exit points vary from the entry points as indicated. Applying these assignments to the zonal trips detailed in Appendix L results in the ‘New’ trip assignments indicated in Figures 25, 26 and 27 for the AM, PM and Saturday peaks respectively.

7.28 In the case of the ‘Transferred’ trips some zones see a change in turning movements within the highway network area of interest, whilst for others all ‘Transferred’ trips are still effectively new to the area of interest. In order to help understand this, the assignment of each individual zone (including any switch from existing stores) is detailed in Appendix N. Applying these assignments to the zonal trips detailed in Appendix M results in the ‘Transferred’ trip assignments detailed in Figures 28 and 29 for the PM and Saturday peaks respectively. As discussed previously, in the case of the AM peak, trips are assumed to be either ‘New’ or ‘Passby’, and therefore there is no AM peak equivalent for either ‘Transferred’ or ‘Diverted’ trips.

7.29 With respect to ‘Passby’ trips these are taken as trips which would be passing immediately past the site entrance i.e. those trips on the Northern Roundabout which are circulating past the site access arm. Instead of their current movement they turn off into the site, and then back out again to continue on their original path. The ‘Passby’ trips have been assigned in proportion to the relevant background turning volumes (assuming that all

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existing Grange Road traffic at this roundabout has already been diverted to the Southern Roundabout). The calculations are attached at Appendix O. The resulting ‘Passby’ trips are detailed in Figures 30, 31 and 32 for the AM, PM and Saturday peaks respectively.

7.30 The ‘Diverted’ trips are taken as diverting from all other background turning movements within the area of interest. Instead of their existing turning movement they turn towards the site, and on their return they continue on their original path. They have been assigned in proportion to the relevant background traffic volumes on these turning movements. The calculations are attached at Appendix P. The resulting ‘Diverted’ trips for the PM and Saturday peaks are detailed in Figures 33 and 34 respectively.

7.31 Finally, all the generated flows from the different categories have then been combined to produce the Net Additional Development traffic. The AM peak Northern Site Development Trips are presented at Figure 35. The PM peak equivalent is at Figure 36, and the Saturday at Figure 37.

Central Site (Site 2)

7.32 The indicative Masterplan submitted in support of the outline application for this area proposes a 60 bed hotel and restaurant/pub, and 4,500 m2 GFA offices. Whilst the Masterplan is indicative, it sets the parameters within which the reserved matters will be required to comply.

Trip Generation

7.33 Trip rates for these elements of development have been calculated from TRICS data.

7.34 In the case of the hotel and restaurant/pub there is a specific category within TRICS for these two elements combined on the same site. The TRICS selection criteria adopted has excluded Greater London and Ireland sites. The range in hotel size considered was 40 to 87 beds, although for the

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Saturday this produced just one site survey and therefore the range was extended down to 26 beds in order to increase the dataset.

7.35 The TRICS data is attached at Appendix Q and the resulting trip rates and trip generation are detailed below in Table 9.

Trip Rates (per bed) Trip Generation

In Out Total In Out Total

AM Peak Hour 0.154 0.294 0.448 9 18 27

PM Peak Hour 0.552 0.286 0.838 33 17 50

Saturday Peak Hour 0.610 0.517 1.127 37 31 68

Table 9 – Hotel & Restaurant/Pub Trip Generation

7.36 Offices usually only result in a weekday trip generation. Again trip rates have been derived from the TRICS database. Greater London and Ireland sites have been excluded. A floorspace range 1,500 to 9,000 m2 GFA has been considered, including several edge of town centre sites, but excluding town centre locations.

7.37 The TRICS data is attached at Appendix R and the resulting trip rates and trip generation are detailed below in Table 10.

Trip Rates (per 100 m2 GFA) Trip Generation

In Out Total In Out Total

AM Peak Hour 1.80 0.23 2.03 11 70 81

PM Peak Hour 0.25 1.56 1.81 81 10 91

Table 10 – Office Trip Generation

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Trip Distribution and Assignment

7.38 Simple distribution and assignments have been assumed for these uses. Of course the catchment area for these uses will be greater than that of a foodstore (particularly for the hotel) and the adopted distributions reflect this with a greater proportion of traffic routeing to/from the A4042 via Edlogan Way and Llanfrechfa Way.

7.39 The adopted distribution for the hotel and restaurant/pub use is provided at Figure 38, and that for the office use at Figure 39.

7.40 The application of these distributions to the trip generations detailed in Tables 9 and 10 results in the assignment of traffic indicated in Figures 40, 41 and 42 for the hotel and restaurant/pub use for each of the three peaks, and in Figures 43 and 44 for the office use for the weekday AM and PM peaks.

7.41 The total trip generation associated with the Central Site is presented at Figures 45, 46 and 47 for the AM, PM and Saturday peak hours respectively.

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8.0 PRODUCTION OF ASSESSMENT FLOWS

Base Traffic Flows

8.1 As the TA considers a phased development, two assessment years have been selected: 2013 to represent when the Northern (Site 1) and Southern (Site 3) Sites are expected to be fully operational; and 2016 to reflect the later addition of the Central Site (Site 2).

8.2 The selection of these years for testing purposes means that the impact of development traffic will be at its greatest as proportionally it will reduce against any background growth of traffic.

8.3 The ‘as counted’ existing traffic volumes have been ‘growthed’ forward to the assessment years of 2013 and 2016 applying TEMPRO growth factors. The existing traffic volumes were counted in 2009 and 2010, but rather than applying different growth factors, and for a robust assessment, all traffic has been growthed up applying 2009 to 2013 and 2009 to 2016 factors.

8.4 The TEMPRO growth factors for Cwmbran Urban Minor Roads (Version 6.2 Dataset 54) are as detailed in Table 11 below.

Years 2009 – 2013 Growth Years 2009 – 2016 Growth AM Peak 1.071 1.126 PM Peak 1.071 1.127 Saturday 1.070 1.125

Table 11 – TEMPRO Growth Factors

8.5 These wholesale increases in background traffic of 7% for the 2013 test and 12.5% for the 2016 test represent significant increases to the peak hour traffic flows.

8.6 Clearly, peak hour traffic growth will be limited by the capacity of the highway, both locally and further afield, and any long term growth will be heavily

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restricted given that this country no longer adopts a ‘predict and provide’ approach. The adoption of the above growth rates, irrespective of the year they materialise, are considered to provide a robust test for design purposes.

8.7 Application of the above growth factors to the peak hour ‘as counted’ flows detailed in Figures 6 to 8 produces 2013 and 2016 ‘growthed’ flows as detailed in Figures 48, 49 and 50 for the three 2013 peak hours, and Figures 51, 52 and 53 for the three 2016 peak hours.

8.8 In addition to this wholesale growth in peak hour flows TCBC have requested that a number specific development commitments also be added into the Base flows. Of course traffic growth predictions take account of economic growth caused by new development, and this therefore results in an element of double counting.

8.9 The committed developments are as follows:

• B&Q DIY store Grange Road; • Sainsburys store extension; • Brookfield School housing redevelopment; and • South Sebastopol housing.

8.10 In terms of impact on the highway network area of interest the B&Q development is the most significant.

8.11 The B&Q store is to be built at the southern end of Grange Road south of Arvin Meritor. The proposal is for a 12,636 m2 store to be built.

8.12 Trip rates have been extracted from TRICS (data attached at Appendix S) and the resulting peak hour trip generations are as detailed in Table 12.

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Trip Generation

In Out Total

AM Peak Hour 78 42 120

PM Peak Hour 145 160 305

Saturday Peak Hour 351 360 711

Table 12 – DIY Store Trip Generation

8.13 These trips have been assumed to distribute onto the highway network in the same proportions as the ‘New’ trips for the foodstore, albeit to/from the Southern Roundabout rather than the Northern Roundabout.

8.14 The resulting peak hour traffic flows for the B&Q development are as detailed in Figures 54, 55 and 56 for the three peaks under consideration.

8.15 For the Sainsburys store a copy of the TA has been made available. This indicates the trip generations as detailed in Table 13 below.

Trip Generation

In Out Total

AM Peak Hour 20 11 33

PM Peak Hour 33 34 67

Saturday Peak Hour 36 32 68

Table 13 – Sainsburys Extension Trip Generation

8.16 All store extension traffic is stated to be currently accessing the town centre: it would just divert from adjacent town centre car parks including Asda and the retail park. Based on the location of these car parks then none of this store extension traffic would be new to the highway network area of interest.

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8.17 No TA information is available for the Brookfield School redevelopment. This is for 75 units. Estimated trip generations are detailed below in Table 14 and the TRICS data on which these are based on is attached at Appendix T.

Trip Generation

In Out Total

AM Peak Hour 11 32 43

PM Peak Hour 29 17 46

Saturday Peak Hour 18 19 37

Table 14 – Brookfields School Trip Generation

8.18 It should be noted that these trip generations have been adopted directly with no account taken of the net change in traffic from a school use.

8.19 Given the location of this development relative to the masterplan site, very little of this traffic is expected to impact on the highway network area of interest. Nevertheless, as a worst case 20% has been assumed. This results in minimal impact as detailed in Figures 57, 58 and 59 for the three peaks under consideration.

8.20 Lastly, there is a development commitment for some 1200 houses to be built in south Sebastopol, approximately 2km north of the masterplan site. Again, no TA information is available.

8.21 Whilst the 1200 houses proposed in south Sebastopol have received planning permission, none have been built as yet, and given the current economic climate, they are likely to be built out over many years. However, for the purposes of this assessment, an allowance has been made for some development by 2016.

8.22 Of course any future trips between this site and the masterplan site are already accounted for in the trip generation calculations for the masterplan uses. However, consideration has been given to how other future trips to the

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town centre might impact on the highway network area of interest. The vast majority of traffic accessing Cwmbran town centre from south Sebastopol would use the A4051. Only a very small proportion is expected to impact on the highway network area of interest, and most of these would be traffic accessing the railway station.

8.23 Consequently, the trip generations considered appropriate for the south Sebastopol development are detailed in Figures 60, 61 and 62 for the three peaks under consideration. It is emphasised that these have only been considered for the 2016 test, whilst the other development commitments are all assumed to be operational by 2013.

8.24 The 2013 Base flows (which the masterplan development impact will be tested against) are therefore the addition of the 2013 growthed traffic, B&Q and Brookfield committed development flows. The resulting 2013 Base flows are presented in Figures 63, 64 and 65 for the AM, PM and Saturday peak hours under consideration.

8.25 The 2016 Base flows are the addition of the 2016 growthed traffic, B&Q, Brookfield and south Sebastopol committed development flows. The resulting 2016 Base flows are presented in Figures 66, 67 and 68 for the AM, PM and Saturday peak hours under consideration.

With Masterplan Redevelopment Traffic Flows

8.26 The 2013 assessments test the impact of a first phase of development with Arvin Meritor relocated to Site 3 and the Northern Site (Site 1) fully operational. The 2016 assessments test the additional impact of traffic associated with the Central Site (Site 2).

8.27 The impact of the relocation of Arvin Meritor and the Grange Road closure was detailed in Chapter 7. Figures 17 to 19 presented the existing traffic flows with the diversion of traffic to the Southern Roundabout. It is these flows which are growthed up to 2013 and 2016 for inclusion in the ‘With

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Redevelopment’ traffic flows. The test therefore not only includes a diversion of existing activity at Arvin Meritors, but includes for growth in productivity and traffic. The 2013 with road closure growthed flows are presented at Figures 69, 70 and 71 for the AM, PM and Saturday peak hours under consideration. The equivalent 20176 flows are presented at Figures 72, 73 and 74.

8.28 The 2013 ‘With Redevelopment’ flows are made up from the above growthed flows plus B&Q and Brookfield committed development flows plus Northern Site (Site 1) traffic. These flows are presented in Figures 75, 76 and 77 for the AM, PM and Saturday peak hours under consideration.

8.29 The 2016 ‘With Redevelopment’ flows are made up from the above growthed flows plus B&Q, Brookfield and South Sebasopol committed development flows plus the Northern (Site 1) and Central Site (Site 2) traffic. These flows are presented in Figures 78, 79 and 80 for the AM, PM and Saturday peak hours under consideration.

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9.0 PHASE 1 OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENTS

9.1 In order to determine the implications of the phase 1 redevelopment proposals all four roundabouts have been assessed under the 2013 ‘Base’ and ‘With Redevelopment’ flows set out in Chapter 8.

9.2 Consideration of the three time periods under consideration shows that the PM and Saturday peak flows are considerably higher than the AM peak flows: both in terms of redevelopment increases in traffic; and the resulting overall flows in 2013. Analysis therefore concentrates on the PM and Saturday peak hour time periods.

9.3 The four junctions have been assessed using ARCADY (the Department for Transport (DfT) computer programme for modelling the operational performance of roundabouts). All tests have been undertaken adopting ARCADY’s default ‘surge’ traffic profile, which uplifts the central half hour of the peak by +12.5%. This is a robust assumption for peak hour assessment.

9.4 As discussed in Chapter 3, the traffic flows are all presented in PCUs where heavy vehicles are assigned a PCU value of 2 to take full account of the greater impact of these vehicles on the junction. For the purposes of ARCADY therefore, with heavy vehicles already accounted for, the percentage heavy vehicle category is of course set to zero.

Northern Roundabout

9.5 This five arm junction will provide direct access to Morrisons (the Northern Site - Site 1).

9.6 The results of the ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 15 and 16 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix U along with a 1:500 scale plan of the junction layout. Of course, for the With Redevelopment scenario the

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geometry of the Grange Road approach is replaced with that of the Morrisons access arrangements presented at Figure 13.

Northern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2013 Base Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road (north) 0.515 1 0.747 3

Edlogan Way 0.668 2 0.706 2

Grange Road 0.086 1 0.043 1

St David's Road (south) 0.701 2 0.650 2 Caradoc Road 0.817 4 0.856 6

Table 15

Northern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge)

2013 With Redevelopment (Phase 1)

Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road (north) 0.643 2 0.928 10 Edlogan Way 0.818 4 0.912 8 Morrisons Access 0.600 2 0.741 3 St David's Road (south) 0.916 9 0.871 6 Caradoc Road 0.994 19 1.060 41

Table 16

9.7 A Ratio of Flow to Capacity (RFC) of 1.0 represents the ultimate capacity of a junction. An RFC of 0.85 is generally taken as a design capacity, beyond which regular queuing becomes evident.

9.8 It can be seen from Table 15 that this roundabout would be operating at around its practical capacity in 2013 without the redevelopment of the masterplan site. Caradoc Road has an RFC of 0.86 during the Saturday peak hour. Clearly, at this operational level, the addition of masterplan traffic will result in increased queuing and delay.

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9.9 As indicated in Table 16 the performance of the roundabout deteriorates with the addition of phase 1 masterplan traffic, with RFCs at or exceeding unity in both the PM and Saturday peak hours.

9.10 Clearly, capacity improvements will be required at this junction in order to provide an acceptable level of performance and reduce queuing.

Tudor Road Roundabout

9.11 The results of the ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 17 and 18 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix V along with a 1:500 scale plan of the junction layout.

Tudor Road Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2013 Base

Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour

RFC Queue RFC Queue

St David's Road (North) 0.527 1 0.656 2 St David's Road (South) 0.407 1 0.424 1 Tudor Road 0.271 1 0.208 1

Table 17

Tudor Road Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2013 Base With Redevelopment (Phase 1) Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour

RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road (North) 0.633 2 0.769 3 St David's Road (South) 0.532 1 0.551 1

Tudor Road 0.293 1 0.224 1

Table 18

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9.12 This large roundabout junction currently has significant reserve capacity. The results show that this junction would continue to operate well within capacity with the addition of Phase 1 masterplan traffic, and with no material increase in queuing. The maximum RFC would be 0.77 occurring during the Saturday peak hour.

Southern Roundabout

9.13 The southern Grange Road roundabout will provide access to Arvin Meritor. The results of the ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 19 and 20 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix W along with a 1:500 scale plan of the junction layout. For the With Redevelopment scenario the geometry of the Grange Road approach is modified to reflect the proposed widening which will permit two way HGV operation as indicated on drawing M09007-A-015A attached at Appendix E.

Southern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2013 Base

Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour

RFC Queue RFC Queue

St David's Road 0.533 1 0.606 2 Grange Road 0.457 1 0.782 3 Llanfrechfa Way 0.792 4 0.734 3 Llantarnam Rd 0.702 2 0.719 3 Llywelyn Rd 0.244 1 0.309 1

Table 19

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Southern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2013 With Redevelopment (Phase 1) Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour

RFC Queue RFC Queue

St David's Road 0.656 2 0.745 3

Grange Road 0.409 1 0.641 2 Llanfrechfa Way 0.857 6 0.805 4 Llantarnam Rd 0.806 4 0.836 5 Llywelyn Rd 0.279 1 0.355 1

Table 20

9.14 It can be seen in Table 19 that this junction would be operating with some spare capacity in the Base scenario. The maximum RFC is 0.79 during the Friday peak hour.

9.15 As indicated in Table 20, with the addition of Phase 1 masterplan traffic, the junction would be operating at around its practical capacity with a maximum RFC of 0.86. This is a peak hour event (tested under unlikely surge conditions) and the junction should continue to perform with spare capacity at all other times.

9.16 Clearly, the operational performance of this junction will only reduce when the remainder of the masterplan site is developed out. Capacity improvements will be required at this junction in order to provide an acceptable level of performance and reduce queuing.

4 Arm Roundabout

9.17 This is the junction of Llantarnam Road with Henllys Way and Court Road. The results of the ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 21 and 22 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix X along with a 1:500 scale plan of the junction layout.

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4 Arm Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2013 Base Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue Llantarnam Road (North) 0.526 1 0.544 1

Court Road 0.235 1 0.242 1

Llantarnam Rd (South) 0.411 1 0.380 1

Henllys Way 0.573 1 0.589 1

Table 21

4 Arm Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2013 With Redevelopment (Phase 1) Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue Llantarnam Road (North) 0.594 2 0.619 2 Court Road 0.255 1 0.265 1 Llantarnam Rd (South) 0.444 1 0.418 1

Henllys Way 0.644 2 0.675 2

Table 22

9.18 This roundabout currently has significant reserve capacity. The results show that this junction would continue to operate well within capacity with the addition of Phase 1 masterplan traffic, and with no material increase in queuing. The maximum RFC would be 0.68 occurring during the Saturday peak hour.

9.19 The 2013 Phase 1 operational assessments have identified a need for physical improvement of the Northern Roundabout.

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10.0 ASSESSMENT OF THE FULL MASTERPLAN SCHEME

10.1 This chapter details the implications of the full redevelopment proposals. All four roundabouts have been assessed under the 2016 ‘Base’ and ‘With Redevelopment’ flows set out in Chapter 8. Additionally, the opening of the Central Site (Site 2) will result in a new priority access junction on to St David’s Road (between the Northern Roundabout and Tudor Road Roundabout) and the capacity of this junction has also been tested.

10.2 Consideration of the three time periods under consideration again shows that the PM and Saturday peak flows are considerably higher than the AM peak flows. However, for completeness, and given that an office/hotel development would normally require an AM and PM peak hour assessment, all three peak hour traffic scenarios have been tested for the full masterplan development scenario.

Central Site Access Junction

10.3 The capacity of the proposed priority junction design has been tested using PICADY, the DfT assessment tool for priority junctions. The 12.5% surge profile has again been adopted.

10.4 The results of the assessment are summarised in Table 23. The PICADY output is attached at Appendix Y. The layout of the junction is indicated in Figure 12. It should be noted that although the existing width of St David’s Road would permit a straight ahead northbound vehicle to ‘squeeze’ past one waiting to turn right, for the purposes of assessment, right turners are assumed to always block straight ahead traffic.

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Central Site Access Junction – PICADY Results (Surge)

Non Priority 2016 With Full Masterplan Redevelopment

Turning Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Movement RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue Left/Right Out 0.129 1 0.652 2 0.432 1 Right In 0.185 1 0.188 1 0.150 1

Table 23

10.5 The results show that this new junction would be operating with significant reserve capacity with a maximum RFC of 0.65 and corresponding queue of 2.

Northern Roundabout

10.6 As discussed in Chapter 9 this junction would already be experiencing operational difficulties in 2013.

10.7 The results of the 2016 ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 24 and 25 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix Z.

Northern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 Base Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue St David’s Road (north) 0.650 2 0.556 1 0.806 4 Edlogan Way 0.684 2 0.725 3 0.764 3 Grange Road 0.059 1 0.093 1 0.048 1 St David's Road (south) 0.416 1 0.750 3 0.687 2 Caradoc Road 0.551 1 0.886 7 0.917 8

Table 24

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Northern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 With Full Masterplan Redevelopment Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue St David’s Road (north) 0.745 3 0.692 2 0.985 18 Edlogan Way 0.827 4 0.901 8 0.990 17 Morrisons Access 0.248 1 0.639 2 0.779 3 St David's Road (south) 0.523 1 1.003 26 0.924 10 Caradoc Road 0.637 2 1.098 52 1.148 76

Table 25

10.8 As would be expected, RFC values and queue lengths increase further. Table 24 shows that even in the absence of any masterplan development, the RFC values on Caradoc Road would be 0.89 and 0.92 in the PM and Saturday peak hours respectively.

10.9 Table 25 shows that with the addition of masterplan traffic queuing escalates on Caradoc Road (maximum RFC 1.15) and the capacity problems would begin to spread across most approaches, particularly on the Saturday where the Morrisons approach is the only approach operating with an RFC below 0.85.

10.10 The junction would however continue to operate within capacity during the AM peak hour.

Tudor Road Roundabout

10.11 As detailed in Chapter 9 this junction would be operating well within capacity in 2013.

10.12 The results of the 2016 ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 26 and 27 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix AA.

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Tudor Road Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 Base Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue St David’s Road (North) 0.528 1 0.556 1 0.689 2 St David's Road (South) 0.398 1 0.434 1 0.449 1 Tudor Road 0.093 1 0.289 1 0.220 1

Table 26

Tudor Road Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 With Full Masterplan Redevelopment Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue St David’s Road (North) 0.603 2 0.690 2 0.813 4 St David's Road (South) 0.497 1 0.576 1 0.590 1 Tudor Road 0.098 1 0.316 1 0.239 1

Table 27

10.13 The results of the 2016 assessments show that this junction would continue to operate within capacity with the masterplan site fully developed out. A maximum RFC of 0.81 is indicated in Table 27.

Southern Roundabout

10.14 As detailed in Chapter 9 this junction would be beginning to show restricted capacity in 2013 with notable queue lengths beginning to form.

10.15 The results of the 2016 ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 28 and 29 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix AB.

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Southern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 Base Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road 0.500 1 0.565 1 0.639 2 Grange Road 0.198 1 0.486 1 0.820 4 Llanfrechfa Way 0.560 1 0.843 5 0.781 3 Llantarnam Rd 0.792 4 0.748 3 0.760 3 Llywelyn Rd 0.238 1 0.262 1 0.328 1

Table 28

Southern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 With Full Masterplan Redevelopment Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road 0.600 2 0.722 3 0.792 4 Grange Road 0.181 1 0.452 1 0.681 2 Llanfrechfa Way 0.625 2 0.941 11 0.877 6 Llantarnam Rd 0.897 8 0.868 6 0.890 7 Llywelyn Rd 0.268 1 0.303 1 0.380 1

Table 29

10.16 Table 28 shows that the roundabout would be operating at around its design capacity in the Base scenario during the PM peak hour with a maximum RFC of 0.84 on Llanfrechfa Way.

10.17 Table 29 shows that the maximum RFC on Llanfrechfa Way would increase to 0.94 with the addition of full masterplan development traffic..

4 Arm Roundabout

10.19 As detailed in Chapter 9 this junction would be operating well within capacity in 2013.

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10.20 The results of the 2016 ARCADY assessments are summarised below in Tables 30 and 31 for the Base and With Redevelopment scenarios respectively. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix AC.

4 Arm Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 Base Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue Llantarnam Road (North) 0.414 1 0.555 1 0.572 1 Court Road 0.124 1 0.259 1 0.264 1 Llantarnam Rd (South) 0.406 1 0.442 1 0.405 1 Henllys Way 0.756 3 0.609 2 0.621 2

Table 30

4 Arm Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 With Full Masterplan Redevelopment Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue Llantarnam Road (North) 0.447 1 0.637 2 0.650 2 Court Road 0.128 1 0.286 1 0.292 1 Llantarnam Rd (South) 0.440 1 0.483 1 0.448 1 Henllys Way 0.837 5 0.689 2 0.713 2

Table 31

10.22 The results of the 2016 assessments show that this junction would continue to operate well within capacity with the masterplan site fully developed out. A maximum RFC of 0.71 is indicated in Table 31.

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10.23 Testing of Phase 1 redevelopment traffic impact identified a need for physical improvement of the Northern Roundabout. This need is intensified in 2016. Whilst the Southern Roundabout would continue to operate at around its design capacity in 2013, by 2016 the junction would be beginning to exhibit more significant queuing on the Llanfrechfa Way approach (RFC of 0.94).

10.24 The other junctions remain operating within their design capacity.

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11.0 MITIGATION

11.1 This chapter details the off-site transport and highways related investments which will be provided as part of the redevelopment proposals for the masterplan site.

11.2 Firstly, as detailed in Chapters 9 and 10, the Northern and Southern Roundabouts would be experiencing operational capacity problems at certain times. Therefore consideration has been given to physical improvements which could be made to these roundabouts which would mitigate the impact of the masterplan regeneration.

11.3 These roundabouts have no lane markings, and consequently many drivers approach the roundabout in single file. Improvement schemes are proposed which provide widening of the critical roundabout approaches and the introduction of white lining to provide for a higher throughput of traffic. The proposed improvements are indicated at Figures 81 and 82 for the Northern and Southern Roundabouts respectively.

11.4 With reference to the pedestrian and cyclist accidents recorded on the Northern Roundabout (as discussed in Chapter 3), the proposed improvement scheme includes for coloured surface treatment on all the crossing points of this junction to help highlight the potential presence of pedestrians and cyclists to approaching drivers.

Northern Roundabout

11.5 The operational impact of the proposed highway improvement has been tested using ARCADY. The results of these assessments are detailed in Tables 32 and 33. Only the PM and Saturday peaks are critical for this junction. Tests have been run for 2013 Phase 1 development and 2016 Full Masterplan Redevelopment. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix AD.

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Northern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge)

2013 With Redevelopment (Phase 1)

And Proposed Junction Improvements Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road (north) 0.517 1 0.754 3 Edlogan Way 0.717 3 0.796 4 Morrisons Access 0.571 1 0.714 2 St David's Road (south) 0.800 4 0.759 3

Caradoc Road 0.801 4 0.855 6

Table 32

Northern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge)

2016 With Full Masterplan Redevelopment

And Proposed Junction Improvements Arm Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road (north) 0.570 1 0.820 4 Edlogan Way 0.795 4 0.879 6 Morrisons Access 0.612 2 0.774 3 St David's Road (south) 0.874 6 0.807 4

Caradoc Road 0.891 7 0.926 10

Table 33

11.6 By comparison with the Base operation set out in Tables 15 and 24 the above summary results show that the proposed improvement scheme for the Northern Roundabout would leave operating conditions no worse off with maximum RFCs and queues at around the same level as the Base operation.

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11.7 Crucially, the proposed highway scheme provides improvements to the entry deflection on a number of approaches which are currently sub-standard. Entry deflection is a key component of providing safe roundabout design. It also provides coloured surfacing on the pedestrian crossing points to help highlight the potential presence of pedestrians and cyclists crossing the road.

Southern Roundabout

11.8 The operational impact of the proposed 2016 highway improvement has been tested using ARCADY. All three peaks are critical and have been tested. The results of these assessments are detailed in Tables 34. The ARCADY output is attached at Appendix AE.

Southern Roundabout – ARCADY Results (Surge) 2016 With Full Masterplan Redevelopment And Proposed Junction Improvements Arm Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour RFC Queue RFC Queue RFC Queue St David's Road 0.600 2 0.722 3 0.792 4 Grange Road 0.181 1 0.452 1 0.680 2 Llanfrechfa Way 0.511 1 0.760 3 0.701 2 Llantarnam Rd 0.897 8 0.870 6 0.890 7 Llywelyn Rd 0.268 1 0.304 0 0.380 1

Table 34

11.9 By comparison with the Base operation set out in Table 28 the above summary results show that the proposed improvement scheme for the Llanfrechfa Way approach to the Southern Roundabout would reduce queuing on this approach, and indeed would provide some reserve capacity. Indeed, the only approach where operation would be around design capacity would be Llantarnam Road; with all other approaches operating with reserve capacity.

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11.10 Based on the above detailed testing it is concluded that the Northern Roundabout improvement scheme should come forward prior to opening of the Morrisons store. The Llanfrechfa Way approach to the Southern Roundabout should come forward in advance of occupation of the Central Site (Site 2). However, the Grange Road widening to permit two way HGV passage on the approach to this roundabout would be provided in advance of the Arvin Meritor relocation/Grange Road stopping up.

11.11 Other significant investment includes the enhanced pedestrian connections across St David’s Road. This includes both an extension of the pedestrian walkway next to Vue Cinema to bridge over St David’s Road, and a change in environment on St David’s Road with the reduction in speed limit from 40mph to 20mph, introduction of a raised speed table, and designated pedestrian crossing areas.

11.12 Given the main areas that these crossings will serve, the footbridge will be provided prior to opening of the Morrisons store. The at-grade enhancements to St David’s Road will be delivered as part of the development of the Central Site.

11.3 In summary, mitigation and improvement measures would be provided as follows:

Phase 1 • Northern Roundabout improvement including crossing points • Widening of Grange Road approach to Southern Roundabout • Footbridge connection across St David’s Road • Controlled pedestrian crossing of Edlogan Way • New and improved pedestrian footway adjacent to St David’s Road and Edlogan Way

Phase 2 • Southern Roundabout improvement to Llanfrechfa Way

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• St David’s Road speed table, reduced speed limit and designated pedestrian crossing points

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12.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

12.1 This Transport Assessment (TA) has examined the transport related impact of the proposed redevelopment of the Arvin Meritor site at Grange Road, Cwmbran. The redevelopment plans for the site follow a masterplan which has been developed through discussions with Torfaen County Borough Council.

12.2 Arvin Meritor is to modernise its factory, and as part of the rebuild will compress its operation into the southern part of its existing site (within Site 3), thus releasing the northern part for redevelopment. A Morrisons foodstore is to occupy the northern portion of this released land (Site 1), with the remaining middle section (Site 2) being made available for future redevelopment for office, hotel and pub/restaurant uses. Full planning applications have been submitted for Sites 1 and 3 whilst an outline application has been submitted for Site 2.

12.3 The masterplan area includes the strip of land between St David’s Road and Grange Road, and will form an extension to the existing town centre which currently runs immediately along the western side of St David’s Road. The northern section of Grange Road will be stopped up and pedestrian linkages across St David’s Road will be strengthened, and in particular a footbridge connection will connect into the existing walkway adjacent to the cinema. From here there is easy access to the primary shopping frontage and the bus station. Additionally, the provision of a controlled pedestrian crossing of Edlogan Way will improve linkages to the rail station.

12.4 Cwmbran railway station is located immediately north of the site and a shared footway/cycleway runs along the northern edge of the site on Edlogan Way. These existing facilities and the masterplan pedestrian connections within the site and to the surrounding area mean that the site is well situated for access by all modes.

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12.5 This TA considers impact of redevelopment for the first phase (Arvin Meritor relocated to Site 3 and Morrisons operational on the northern section [Site 1] of the site) and also the full redevelopment of the masterplan area with the addition of the office and hotel and pub/restaurant development on the central section (Site 2).

12.6 Each of the three sub-sites will have their own access arrangements.

12.7 In traffic impact terms the relocation of Arvin Meritors operations will not result in any change in traffic activity except for its access arrangements and therefore routeing of traffic. Arvin Meritor’s site will be accessed solely via the southern section of Grange Road. Grange Road effectively becomes a cul- de-sac. Given that the section of Grange Road closest to the site is of restricted width, HGVs accessing the site will run on a one way loop around the building thus avoiding two way flow for all but a very short section. Some widening of Grange Road is proposed in order to accommodate two way HGV movements on the tight bend exiting the St David’s Road roundabout.

12.8 Full planning consent is being sought for the Northern Site (Site 1) which will be occupied by a Morrisons foodstore of 6,860 m2 GFA (3,317 m2 RFA) a petrol filling station and two small units for A1/A3 use. The Morrisons site will be accessed directly off the Northern roundabout (St David’s Road / Edlogan Way) via a realignment and widening of the existing Grange Road arm of the junction.

12.9 Outline consent is being sought for the Central Site (Site 2) which will be occupied by a 60 bed hotel plus 680 m2 GFA pub/restaurant, and 4,500 m2 GFA B1 office use. It will be accessed via a new priority junction on to St David’s Road.

12.10 Using robust assumptions, an assessment has been made of the increase in traffic resulting from the redevelopment proposals. The analysis shows that

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the Northern Roundabout (Morrisons access) would be experiencing operational difficulties in the PM and Saturday peak hours with the addition of store traffic. A roundabout improvement scheme is proposed which will not only provide sufficient capacity to accommodate the uplift in traffic but will also provide safety enhancements to a junction which has existing safety concerns.

12.11 By 2016 with the addition of the Central Site (Site 2) traffic, the Southern Grange Road roundabout would also start to show capacity issues and an improvement scheme is also proposed here.

12.12 Elsewhere on the highway network the other junctions under consideration have been shown to be able to readily accommodate these peak hour traffic flows.

12.13 It is therefore concluded that there are no transport related issues which should prevent the proposals from proceeding, subject to the proposed mitigation measures being provided.

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