State of the World: 1989. a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society

DOCUMENT RESUME

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AUTHOR Brown, Lester R.; And Others TITLE State of the World: 1989. A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society. INSTITUTION Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. REPORT NO ISBN-0-393-30567-8 PUB DATE 89 NOTE 271p.; Graphs and charts may not reproduce well. AVAILABLE FROMWorldwatch Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave, Washington, DC 20036 ($9.95 papers ISBN-0-393-02638-8 hard cover). PUB TYPE Viewpoints (120) -- Reports - Descriptive (141)

EDRS PRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS. DESCRIPTORS Air Pollution; Climate; *Conservation (Environment); Ecology; *Energy Conservation; *Environmental Education; Environmental Influences; *Environmental Research; Hazardous Materials; *Physical Environment; Pollutions *Science and Society; Scientific Research

ABSTRACT There are more people being affected by environmental change than ever before. The deterioration of the earth's physical condition appears to be accelerating. This sixth in a series of annual reports is a collection of 10 essays detailing the major threats to global environmental security and possible responses to them. Included are:(1) "A World at Risk" (Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Sandra Postel); (2) "Halting Land Degradation" (Sandra Postel); (3) "Reexamining the World Food Prospect" (Lester R. Brown); (4) "Abandoning Homelands" (Jodi L. Jacobson); (5) "Protecting the Ozone Layer" (Cynthia Pollock Shea); (6) "Rethinking Transportation" (Michael Renner); (7) "Responding to AIDS" (Lori Heise); (8) "Enhancing Global Security" (Michael Renner); (9) "Mobilizing at the Grassroots" (Alan B. Durning); and (10) "Outlining a Global Action Plan" (Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Sandra Postel). The report concludes with a statement of the belief that the 1990s needs to be a turn-around decade. (CW)

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'S' STATE OF THE WORLD 1989

t.0 Other Norton/Worldwatch Books

Lester R. Brown et al. State of the World 1934 State of the World 1985 State of the World 1986 State of the World 1987 State of the World 1988 STATE OF THE WORLD 1989 AWorldwatch Institute Reporton ProgressEwardaSustainable Society

PROJECT DIRECTOR SENIOR RESEARCHERS Lester R. Brown Lester R. Brown ASSOCIATE PROJECT Alan D towing DIRECTORS Christopher Flavin Christopher Flavin Lori Heise Sandia Postel Jodi Jacobson EDITOR Sandia Postel Linda Starke Michael Renner Cynthia Pollock Shea

WWNORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON Coloright ;E) 1989 In IVorldwattli Institute All rights ITNeTVCd. Published simult.tneoush in Canada by Penguin Books Canada Ltd.. 2801 John Street. Nlarkham. Ontario 13R 104 Primed in the United States of America.

First Edition ISBN 0-393-02638-8 ISBN 0-393-30567-8 {PBK} w. W. Norton It: Company. Inc.. 300 Filth Avenue. New York, N.Y. 10110 V. W. Norton & Company Ltd_ 37 Great Russell Street. London WCIB 3NU

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

C; WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Orville L. Freeman. Chairman Mahbub ul Hag UNITED STATES PAKISTAN Andrew E. Rice, Vice Chairman Hazel Henderson UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Lester R. Brown (Ex Officio) Anne-Marie Holenstein UNITED STATES SWITZERLAND Carlo M. Cipolla Abd-El Rahman Khane ITALY ALGERIA Edward S. Cornish Larry Minear UNITED S FATES ttNrrED STATES Lynne Gallagher UNITED STATES

WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE STAFF Lester R. Brown Lori Heise Linda Doherty Jodi Jacobson Stephen Dujack Reah Janise Kauffman Alan Durning Ann Kip Lori Eaton Nicholas Lenssen Susan Fine Marcia Lowe Christopher Flavin Susan Norris Hilary French Sandra Postel Guy Gorman Michael Renner James Gorman Cynthia Pollock Shea Blondecn Gravely John Young

OFFICERS Lester R. Brown Christopher Fla%in PRESIDENT Blondeen Gravely Felix Gorrell Sandra Postel TREASURER VICE PRESIDENTS Timothy Atkeson GENERAL COUNSEL.

i Acknowledgments

Nine names are inscribed on the cover of id Stiles, Michael Walsh, and Edward Slate of the World 1989, but the book is the Wolf. Any remaining errorsfall,of fruit of countless others' labor. It is a course. to the authors alone. tribute to years of strong support and NVhile the bulk of our research is car- sound advice from Chairman Orville ried out by mail and telephone from our Freeman and the entire Worldwatch offices off Dupont Circle in Washington, Board of Directors. They have never D.C., members of our research team ceased to encourage us to ask the hard journeyed to China, Europe, and Latin questions of how to sustain humanity America during the summer of 1988 to while sustaining the earth. The Rocke- see firsthand the problems and pros- feller Brothers Fund. Winthrop Rocke- pects of those regions. We are deeply felier Trust, and the George Gund indebted to those generous individuals, Foundation supply the backbone of fi- too numerous to name, who shared with nancial support for the Stale of the World us their wisdom, their experience, and series. often their homes. The Institute receives the bulk of re- Nineteen hundred eighty-eight was a search funding from the Geraldine R. year of growth at Worldwatch Institute. Dodge, William and Flora Hewlett, W. With the launch of our new magazine, Alton Jones. Andrew W. Mellon, Edward World Watch, and production beginning John Noble. and Jessie Smith Noyes on a Slate of the Work/ television series, Foundations, as well as project support extraordinarydemandshavebeen from the Public Welfare Foundation and placed on the staff. The quality of this the United Nations Population Fund. volume testifies to their sheer tenacity Without them, State of the World would and to the sirength of their commitment. still be a concept on a drawing board. N'ice President Blondeen Gravely nursed On short notice, ranks of scholars and the Institute through its growth pains. policy experts outside the institute re- while Treasurer Felix Correll skillfully viewed chapters to double-check our maintained the financial health of the or- facts, critique our analysis, and add ganization. depth to our vision. We thank Jeff Alson, Reah Janise Kauffman not only bore Sheldon Annis, Deborah Bleviss, James the full responsibility of assisting the Chin, Douglas Cogan. Clarence Ditiow. president but also managed a fickle and Harold Dregne. Martin Foreman. Laurie expanding computer system. Linda Do- Greenberg, Jeffrey Harris, John Hoff- herty and Guy Gorman deftly juggled man, Kevin Healy, Ken Hughes, William telephones, incoming orders, and visi- Lyerly, Michael Oppenheimer, Mead tors without losing their sense ofhumor. Over, Philip Patterson, Michael Replo- The editorial duo of Stephen Du jack and gle, Sherwood Rowland, Jane Sisk, Dan- James Gorman steered the 11'0r/diva/a (yin) ..iehnowledgments

Papers and World if magazine dedicated team. They each contributed through the rapids of Slate of the World to the entire book with their insightful production. Lori Eaton and Ann Kip suggestions, as well as to the particular both put in early mornings and late chapters on which they worked: Susan nights to keep our accounts and drafts Fine and Bruce Goldstein (Chapters 5 on track. Ted Wolf. newly independent and 7). Hilary French (Chapter 4), Nick from the institute. kept us in close con- Lenssen (Chapters1 and 10), Marcia tact with the team working from Boston Lowe (Chapters 2 and 10). and John on the television series. Young (Chapters 1, 15, 6, 8, and 10). The research business is characterized The final and greatest debt is owed to by an enormous volume of paper, coin- those who do the thankless job of turning in and going out. In that department, ing 10 disjointed manuscripts into one three part-thners at the institute bore unified whole. At W.W. Norton & Com- the brunt. Chas Chiodo mailed books pany in New York. lva Ashner and Andy from our offices to almost every country Marasia patiently accommodate our last- onearth.Meanwhile, most of the minute alterations and still produce Slate sources cited in the notes reach the au- of 11w World in record time. And here on thors after photocopying by either our Massachusetts Avenue, the book itself is resident distance runner George Brown made possible only by the unerring red or our resident whitewatet champion pen of our editor, Linda Starke, who Brian Brown. tirelessly works on draft after draft and Those who left the institute for other then coordinates the projecthrough opportunities since the last State of the galleystofinalproduct. Thereal World include Mary jo Allen, Cynthia finalethe indexis once again due to Bainton, Robin Bell, Bill Chandler, and the skills of Bart Brown. Bruce Goldstein. They are each sorely We also all appreciate the ceaseless missed. We also owe an apology to Amy vigilance of Susan Norris. who manages *Mein. who was unintentionally omitted production of the volume and keeps all from the acknowledgments in Stale qf the the details in mind herself while calming World 1988. That is closest to the eye is the fears of eight authors. We thank her sometimes overlooked. in particular for years of spirited service. Talented research assistants Itre the foundation of Worldwatch's work and Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, this year. in particular, we have had a and Sandra Postel Contents l

Acknowledgments vii THE THREAT OF INVNDTIoN list of Tables and Figures xi A YARDSTICK OF' HABFLBILFIT

Foreword s 5 Protectingthe Ozone Layer,by 1 A World at Risk,by Lester R. Brown. Cynthia Paoli Shm 77 ChristopherFlavin.andSandra THE, OzONE DEPLETIoN PzzIE Poste! 3 EEFF:GTs OF uLTRAvIOLET RDIATION CROSSING pERcEPTUAL THREsIloms CHEMICAL WONDERS. ATospIIF.Ric THE THREAT 01; CLIMATE CHANGE viLLAINS A LOSS OF FeoD SECURITY REDUCING EMISSIONS WORLD WIT. JUT BORDERS MOiNG BEIoND MONTREAL

2 Halting Land Degradation, bySandra 6 Rethinking Transportation, by 97 Pastel 21 3hrhael Renner WIIITIIER THE AUTOMOTIVE AGE? LANDS AND PEOPLE AT RISK SEARCHING FOR LTERNTIEs TO on, UNEARTHING DEGRDATION'S TRUE ENHANCING FUEL EFFICIENCY CAUSES IMPROVING AIR QUALITY DROUGHT. DESERTIFICATION. AND THE A NEW AGE OF TRANSPORT HYDROLOGICAL. CYCLE REGAINING. LAND PRODUCTITY 7Responding to AIDS, byLori Beim. JOINING THE BATTLE 113 3 Reexamining the World Food Pros- THE PNDEMIC UNFOLDS pect,by Lester R. Brown 41 THE IMPACT IN THE THIRD WORLD PROGRESS TOWARD PREVENTION IN PRODUCTION TRENDS INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES THE CROPLAND BASE ALLIANCE. FOR PREVENTION IN WATER FOR IRRIGATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LAND PRODUCTIVITY POTENTIAL AIDS AS SOCIAL CRUCIBLE FOOD SECURITY TRENDS 8 EnhancingGlobalSecurity, by 4 Abandoning Homelands,by Jodi L Michael Renner 132 Jacobson 59 A WORLD AT WAR IN SEARCH OF FERTILE SOILS THE DRAIN OF A PERMANENT WAR UNNATURAL DISASTERS ECONOMY A TOXIC HOME ENVIRONMENT AND SECURITY

.,... CO Contents

FROM OFFENSE TO DEFENSE AND 10 Outlining a Global Action Plan, by PEACEKEEPING Lester R. Brown, Christopher BEATING SWORDS INTO PLOWSHARES Flavin. and Sandra Poste, 174 A CLIMATE-SENSITIVE ENERGY 9 Mobilizing at the Grassroots, by Alan STRATEGY R. Thawing 154 A NEW FUTURE FOR FORESTS AN UNNOTICED TIDE AtEETING FUTURE FOOD NEEDS STABILIZING POPULATION THE GENESIS OF LOCAI. ACTION* A TURNAROUND DECADE MEETING HUMAN NEEDS PROTECTING THE EARTH Notes 195 REFORMING DEVELOPMENT Index 245 FROM THE BOTTCHt AND THE TOP List of Tables and Figures

LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1. A World at Risk 1-1 Food Insecurity in Selected African Countries. 1986 13 1-2World Grain Prices. July 1988, Compared With July 1987 14

Chapter 2. Halting Land Degradation 2-1 Status of Desertification in the World's Dry lands. 1983-84 23 2-2Observations of Land Degradation, Selected Countries and Regions 24 2-3Annual Sediment Load Transported to the Sea by Major Rivers. Early Eight- ies 25 2-4China: Effects of Land Rehabilitation Strategy in Quanjiagou, Mizhi County. 1979-86 34

Chapter 3. Reexamining the World Food Prospect 3-1The Changing pattern of World Grain Trade, 1950-88 45 3-2United States: Sign-Up for Conservation Reserve Program, March 1986 - .July/ August 1988 48 3-3World Grain Production, Use. and Carryover Stocks. 1961-88 56 3-4 United States: Cropland Idled Under Commodity Programs. 1965-88 57 3-5United States: Grain Production. Consumption. and Exportable Surplus by Crop Year. 1980-88 58

Chapter 4. Abandoning Homelands 4-IDisplaced Population in Selected African Countries, September 1985 62 4-2Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Bengal and Nile River Deltas Under Two Scenarios 73

Chapter 5. Protecting the Ozone Layer 5-1 Global CFC Use. by Category. 1985 86 5-2Global CFC Use. by Region. 1986 87 5-3Use and Emissions Profiles of Commonly Used Chemicals, 1983 88

... (xii) List of Tables and Figures Chapter 6. Rethinking Transportation 6-1Automobiles in Use, Worldwide and United States, 1950-87 98 6-2Car Density, 1970-86, and Car Fleet in 1986, by Region 101 Chapter 7. Responding to AIDS 7-1Officially Reported AIDS Cases. Selected Countries, December 1,1988 116 7-2Estimated HIV Prevalence, Selected Regions, 1987/88 116 Chapter 8. Enhancing Global Security 8-1Armed Forces and Employment in Military Industry, Selected Countries. Early to Mid-Eighties 134 8-2Military Share of Gross National Product, Selected Countries, 1984 137 8-3Annual Growth of World Economic Output and Military Expenditures, 1960-85 138 8-4Military ..,,.1 Civilian R&D in Selected Countries, 1971 and 1986 140 8-5International Water Disputes, Mid-Eighties 143 8-6Trade-Offs Between Military and Social or Environmental Priorities 150-51

Chapter 9. Mobilizing at the Grassroots 9-1Grassroots Organizations in Selected Developing Countries, Late Eight- ies 157

Chapter 10. Outlining a Global Action Plan 10-1Projected Net Reductions in Carbon Emissions from Expanded Forest Protec- tion and Reforestation Efforts 183 10-2Projected Population Size at Stabilization and Increase Over Current Level, Selected Countries 189

LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1. A World at Risk 1-1Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 1950-87 9 1-2Observed Global Average Temperatures, 1880-1987, With Projections to 2040 10 1-3World Grain Production Per Capita, 1950-88 12 1-4U.S. Corn Yield Per Hectare, 1950-88 16 Chapter 3. Reexamining the World Food Prospect 3-1World Grain Production, 1950-88 43 3-2World Harvested Area of Grain, 1950-88 46 3-3 World Irrigated Area, 1900-85 49 3-4Irrigated Land in the United States, 1900-84 50

.i S List ofTables and Figures (xiii) 3-5World Grain Yield Per Hectare, 1950-88 52 3.6 World Fertilizer Use and (train Area Per Capita, 1950-88 53

Chapter 5. Protecting the Ozone Layer 5.1Atmospheric Concentration of Chlorine Monoxide andOzone by Latitude, Southern Hemisphere, 1987 80

Chapter 6. Rethinking Transportation 6.1World Passenger Car Production, 1950-87 98 6.2Car Production in South Korea and Brazil. 1970-87 99 6.3World Passenger Car Gasoline Consumption, 1950-86 102 6-4 Fuel Consumption of U.S. Automobiles, 1970-88 103

Chapter 8. Enhancing Global Security 8-1 World Military Expenditures, 1950415 133 8-2U.S. Military Expenditures and Budget Deficits, 1950-88 141

Chapter 10. Outlining a Global Action Plan 10-1 Crude Birth and Death Rates in Japan, 1948-88 189 10-2Crude Birth and Death Rates in China, 1949-87 190 10-3World Birth and Death Rates, 1950-88, With Projected Goal for 2000 190

t.-, -ft Foreword

This sixth annual State of the World report and drought in 1988 led to the unthink- is being released at a time when more ablea U.S. grain harvest that fell below. people are being affected by environ- consumption. The precipitous fall in the mental change than ever before. The de- North American grain harvest raised struction of the world's forests is ac- world grain prices by half between mid- celerating and desertscontinueto 1987 and mid -I988. If the North Ameri- expand. Soil erosion is sapping not just can drought was exacerbated by global agricultural production, but the liveli- warming, which is being driven by the hoods of millions, while the extinction of buildup in greenhouse gases, it would plant and animal species is rapidly di- mark the first time human-induced envi- minishing our biological heritage. For ronmental change has caused a major the first time in history, we are altering shift in a basic economic indicator. the atmosphere itself, destroying the Environmental threats came to light in ozone layer that protects us from ultravi- numerous ways. For vacationers going olet radiation and raising the level of to many of the beaches along the Baltic " greenhouse gases" thatare warming or Adriatic seas, the "No Swimming" the earth. signs were a disappointing reminder of The deterioration of the earth's physi- increasing oceanic pollution. For mil- cal condition that we have documented lions of Chinese living in the Chang in past volumes of this report is now ac- Jiang (Yangtze) Valley, it was exposure celerating. And there is nothing in pros- to the dangerously high July tempera- pect that will reverse it in the foreseeable tures that caused local hospitals to be future. We are now in a race to stop envi- overwhelmed with heat-stroke victims. ronmentaldeteriorationbeforeit As the evidence of potentially un- becomes unmanageable, before it leads controllableenvironmentalchanges to economic decline and social disrup- mounted, there were scattered signs of tion. national governments beginning to re- On the encouraging side, during the spond. In late October, President Jose past year environmental stories have Sarney of Brazil announced a 90-day moved onto the front pages of newspa- suspension of the tax breaks and other pers, magazine covers, and television incentives that had spurred the clearing talk shows. At the same time, a new com- and burning of large tracts of Amazon mitment to global environmental issues rain forest. In Lagos, the Nigerian gov- by Soviet leaders and a new administra- ernment asked couples to limit the num- tion in Washington present extraordi- ber of children to four at most, making nary opportunities to address environ- it the first African country to call for a mental problems. limit on family size. The Soviet Union In the United States, devastating heat called for a massive international effort (.1.-pi ) Foreword toshift resources frommilitary security we were joining forces with WGBH, the toenvironmentalsecurity. And the Boston-based producers of "Nova," to Prime Ministers of Canada and Norway produce a major series for public televi- publicly endorsed a goal of cutting car- sion based onState of the World.We are bon emissions from fossil fuels by 20 pleased to report that filming began in percent by 2005. late 1988, and the series is scheduled to Notwithstanding these and other na- air in 1990. tional initiatives, the gap between what We conclude this year's report with needs to be done to protect the planet's the notion that the nineties needs to be habitability and what is being done is a "turnaround decade." The looming growing. That is the bad news. The good threats we now faceincluding climate news is that more people want to get change, ozone depletion, and popula- involved in the effort to save the planet. tion growthhave so much momentum The question that now dominates our that unless action begins now to reverse mail is, What can I do? them, they will inevitably lead to oaralyz- Record advance sales ofState of the ingly costly economic consequences and World indicate a growing hunger for in- the collapse of social and political insti- formation among people concerned tutions. One of these years, we would about the fate of their planet and their like to be able to write an upbeatState of children's future. This concern is by no the World,one in which we can report means limited to the English-speaking that the trends under mining the human world.State of the Worldnow appears in prospect have been reversed. It now nearlyall of the world's major lan- seems that if we cannot write such a re- guagesSpanish, Arabic, Chinese, Jap- port in the nineties, we may not be able anese, Javanese, German, Polish, Italian, to write it at all. and Russian. In 1987, the Arabic transla- In numerous ways each year, we see tion was the first to be published, follow- howState of the Worldplants the seeds of ing the English edition by only two change. Our goal is to inspire enough months. In 1988, the Italian version, people to nourish and spread those published by Editore Petrini, was availa- seeds that meaningful change begins to ble just one month after the English edi- occur. tion. Petrini's 1989 goal, using a team of As always, we welcome your com- translators, is to publish the Italian edi- ments, reactions, and suggestions. tion simultaneously with the English one. Although it is too early to tell for sure, Lester R. Brown it looks as though U.S. sales ofState of the Project Director World 1989will pass the 100,000 mark. Christopher Flavin All segments of the marketpublic Sandra Poste! policymakers, concerned citizens, cor- Associate Project Directors porate planners, and the academic com- munitycontinue to grow. Last year, Worldwatch Institute State of the Worldwas adopted for use in 1776 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. 751 courses in 451 U.S. colleges and uni- Washington, D.C. 20036 versities. Three years ago, we announced that December 1988 STATE OF THE WORLD 1989 1 AWorldatRisk Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Sandra Postel

Historians looking back on 1-988 may a gradual long-term warming consistent well mark it a watershed year both for with models of the greenhouse effect. the environment and the public's con- but the four warmest years had all occur- cern about it. The earth's deteriorating red in the eighties-1980, 1981, 1983. condition moved into the limelight, as and 1987. It appeared then that 1988 weekly news magazines and television would join them, and would become the talk shows gave prominent play to unset- hottest year on record.' tling evidence of environ mental stress. A As if to lend import to NASA" find- collage of the year's headlines would cry ings, weather conditions in key parts of out to be captioned "a world at risk." the world seemed to preview what life in Indeed, the year provided a tangible a greenhouse world would be like. Tem- foretaste of what lies ahead if we con- peratures in parts of central China tinue down the current pathand this soared to between 36 and 40 degrees glimpse into the global future was dis- Celsius (97 and 104 degrees Fahrenheit) quieting, to say the least. on 10 consecutive days in July. For the In June, evidence came from the U.S. hundreds of millions of Chinese who live National Aeronautics and Space Admin- in this densely populated regionwhich istration (NASA) that the long-predicted embracesShanghai,Nanjing,and global warming had apparently become Wuhanthe heat wave was nothing less than frightful. Hospitals in Nanjing were reality. James E.Hansen, head of overwhelmed by the number of heat NASA's Goddard Institute for Space stroke victims; temporary cots had to be Studies, released findings from a study set up in corridors and shaded areas. of global temperature records spanning With daily highs climbing well above the last century. Not only had there been normal body temperature, hundreds of Units of measurement are metric unless common people died.2 usage dictates otherwise. Meanwhile, heat waves and drought

-, t./ (4) State of the World 1989 were also striking North America. Tem- flood, the worst in living memory, left 25 perature records were set across the million of the country's 110 million peo- continent. Crop yieldsdeclined so ple homeless, adding to the growing sharply in the United States that grain ranksof "environmentalrefugees." production fell below domestic con- (See Chapter 4.)4 sumption, probably for the first time in Alarming news about deforestation history.Fortunately,grainreserves came from Brazil. Satellite data covering could easily fill this deficit as well as sat- the 1987 dry season showed that the isfy export commitments. But with re- Amazon rain forest is being cleared far serves largely depleted, a drought in faster than previously thought. An as- 1989 would slow U.S. grain exports to a tonishing 8 million hectaresan area trickle, send food prices soaring, and about the size of Austriawere burned lead to a frantic scramble for grain in 1987 alone, and burning during the among scores of importers. 1988 dry season was expected to be even Additionalworrisome news came worse. This accelerated destruction is from NASA in March: the atmospheric driving uncounted numbers of plant and ozone layer that protects earthly life animal species to extinction, adding to from harmful ultraviolet radiation had carbon dioxideinduced climate change, begun to thin globally. Depletion was no and threatening to disrupt the region's longer confined to the polar vegions. powerful hydrological cyclewhich in More than 100 scientists from seven turn could alter hemispheric and possi- countries had spent 16 months carefully bly even global clinriatic patterns. (See analyzing ground-based and satellite Chapter 2.)3 measurements of atmospheric ozone. Perhaps the most distinguishing fea- They found that from 1969 to 1986, ture of 1988 was the extent to which en- ozone decreased between 1.7 percent vironmental threats began to directly and 3 percent in a heavily populated touch the emotions and lives of people. band of the northern hemisphere en- Like the mercury in their outdoor ther- compassing virtually all of continental mometers, Americans' concern for the United States and Europe. Wintertime environment seemed to rise to unprece- ozone losses were even greater, ranging dented heights during the summer. from 2.3 percent to 6.2 percent. Failure Within the span of a few weeks, they i toadequately controlemissions of were bombarded by news of medical ozone-depleting chemicals thus virtually waste washing up on East Coast beaches, assures a future of increased skin cancer persistentdrought searing crops rates, crop losses. and damage to marine throughout the agricultural heartland, life. (See Chapter 5.)3 fires raging through popular Yellow- Local and regional signs of environ- stone National Park, and health-threat- mental stress, some verging on the cata- ening pollution levels in the air outside strophic, seemed commonplace in 1988. their homes.6 Early September found two thirds of In Europe, concern about the environ- Bangladesh under water, a direct result ment escalated with the deaths of thou- of heavy monsoon rains but also in- sands of seals in north European waters, directly due to the disruption of the even though the role of pollution was i hydrological cyclein the Himalayan later minimized. Pollution of the Adria- / watershedbecauseofprogressive tic Sea led to fish kills and an exodus of deforestation in recent decades. Flood- tourists from long stretches of the Italian ing in Bangladesh has worsened mea- coastline. Soviet officials banned swim- surably during the eighties. The 1988 ming in the Baltic, Black,andAral seas A World at Risk (5) becauseof pollution-relatedhealth An effective response to the env;ron- threats. West Africans sounded alarms mental threats now unfolding will re- over the dumping of toxic waste on their quire that humanity's perception of its shores. And the human suffering caused relationship to the earth's natural sys- by the flood disaster in Bangladesh went tems cross a new threshold. During the beyond most people's imaginations. The eighties, a number of shifts occurred on natural world, it seemed, was striking the environmental front that led to back.? major turnarounds on some important But what will become of this ground issues. They give cause for optimism in swell of concern arising from the events dealing with the larger threats because of 1988? Will it fade like the summer they show that major reversals are possi- heat? Or will it translate into sufficient ble in a fairly short period of time. But pressure to force policymakers to re- they also engender concern because it spond to the looming threats of which often seems to take a crisis before peo- this year provided a sampling? ple's perceptions change sufficiently to The environmental era now dawning support an effective political response. is distinguished by problems truly global With problems such as climate change in scale. Even while countries grapple and population growth, a continuation with the more localized problems of acid of that pattern means that much irre- rain, toxic waste, and soil erosion, global versible damage will be done before so- threats of unprecedented proportions cieties respond. are now overlaid upon them. The immediate challenge is to translate a common vision of a world at risk into the interna- It often seems to take a crisis tional alliances and bold actions needed before perceptions change suffi- to safeguard the earth. ciently to support an effective political response.

The explosion at the Chernobyl nu- CROSSING PERCEPTUAL clear reactor in the Soviet Ukraine in THRESHOLDS early April 1986 did what hundreds of studies assessing nuclear technology Social change occurs when people alter could never have done: it made the dan- the way they perceive some of the ele- gers of nuclear power real Fresh vegeta- ments constituting their world. Spurred bles were declared unfit for human con- by a dramatic event,a charismatic sumptioninnorthernItaly.Polish leader, or a gradual awakening through authorities launched an emergency ef- education, people cross a "perceptual fort to get iodine tablets administered to threshold" that forces them to see and children. The livelihood of the Lapps in judge some aspect of their world in a northern Scandinavia was threatened new light. These perceptual shifts often when reindeer upon which they depend have a decidedly ethical component. became too contaminated with radiation Witness the turning of slavery from an to bring to market, In the Soviet Union implicit right to a moral abomination, or itself, 100,000 people in the vicinity of the subjugation of women from common the reactor were forced to abandon their practice to--at least in some parts of the homes.8 worlda reprehensible condition. This single event shifted public atti-

...... , fi.; t, (6) State of the World !9S9 Ludes so strongly against nuclear power informal "80 percent club" made up of that since then five countries have de- nations committed to this target, which cided not to build more nuclear plants in turn paved the way for the Protocol on and two. Italy and Sweden, have decided theReduction of SulfurEmissions to accelerate closings of existing plants. signed by 21 nations in Helsinki in In the Soviet Union, at least five reactors 1985.11 have been canceled since the accident, By 1986. 10 countries had met or ex- and work has been suspended at several ceeded the 80-percent reduction goal other sifes.9 an astonishingly rapid achievement Rapid advances in recent years toward and 4 had committed themselves to a acid rain control in Europe stem in large 70-percent reduction. IL is impossible to part from the West Germans' sudden know how acid rain controls in Europe awakening to waldsierben, forest death. would have progressed had waldsterben After a 1982 survey showed that trees in not become such an emotional issue. es- the fabled Black Forest and elsewhere pecially in West Germany but also in were dying in large numberswith sus- other countries that discovered exten- pected links to air pollution and acid sive damage to their woodlands. The rainwnldsterben rapidly emerged as a spectre of dying forests clearly caused potent political and emotional issue. A enough Europeans to cross a threshold poll taken during the summer of 1988 of concern that made political action not showed that West Germans were more only urgent, but unavoidable." concerned about the fate of their forests Just since the mid-eighties, an envi- than about the Pershing missiles that ronmental awakening has occurred in were to be placed on their territory later Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. that year." The Chernobyl accident and the spread of forest damage were precipitating factors, but the rising awareness seems to An environmental awakening has spring equally from concern about the occurred in Eastern Europe and deterioration of the region's air, drinking wafer, and soils." the Soviet Union. With the emergence of glasnosi, this awakening has spurred much environmental activism. One western observer Until that Lime, the nation had been in the Soviet Union has compared the firmlyagainstcooperationtoward mood there with that in the United stricter air pollution controls. Faced with States in 1970, the year Earth Day was such strong public concern, however, proclaimed. In Poland, there are now West German officials dramatically re- some 2,000 environmental organiza- versed their position in 1988. At a meet- tions, most of them established since ing of the U.N. Economic Commission 1986. Freedom and Peace. among the for Europe (ECE) to discuss transbound- most active of them, captures the funda- arypollution, West Germany broke mental nature of the growing concern ranks and supported a Scandinavian with its statement: "Threatened with the proposal calling for each ECE member ruin of the biosphere, pollution of air, to cut sulfur dioxide emissions by 80 wafer and soil, we realize that freedom percent by 1998. Dissent from the should also be the possibility to live in United States. the United Kingdom, and non-devastated surroundings.'44 others prevented the proposal's adop- Of course, perceptual shifts by them- tion. But it led to die formation of an selves do not resolve problems. Addi- A World al Risk (7) Lional pollution control measures are new moral frontier. A growing sense of still needed in Europe, and the environ- the world's interJ.-pendence and con- mental awakening in Eastern Europe nectedness Lakes shapethe recogni- and the Soviet Union has led only to in- tion, for example. that automobile use cipient action by governments. But such anywhere threatensclimatestability shifts are often prerequisites to effective everywhere, that persistent poverty and responses, the sparks that ignite the pro- debt cast an economic shadow over in- cesses of change. dustrial countries as well as those in the In Western Europe, this evolution Third World. The old business of pursu- from perception to action may be has- ing narrow economic and political self- tened by the emergence of the so-called interestfalls away, anachronistic and green political movement. With roots in plainly untenable. As historian Jeremy West Germany in the late seventies, this Brecher wrote in 1988, this "second eco- movement now has official political par- logical revolution...will have to say that ties in 16 countries and members of par- preserving the conditions for human life liament (MPs) in 8. The European Par- is simply more important than increas- liament itself now includes Green Party ing national power or private wealth."17 members. In 1988, Sweden's Greens be- Without a strong sense that people came the first new parry to enter the par- favor the fundamental changes needed liament in 70 years, and Italy's less for- to respond to these problems, govern- mal green parliamentary group became ments will not Lake the necessary actions. an important force in that nation's poli- The immediate task, then, is for in- tics. In some countries, Green MPs are dividuals everywhere to raise their unable to direct some public funds toward derstanding, concern, and voices to the environmental research and into confer- point where political leaders are forced ences and other events that raise the to respond. Scientists who not only con- level of public awareness.15 vey the relevant facts but also articulate Perceptual shifts of profound propor- the consequences of political inaction tions are needed to respond adequately will play a crucial role in this process of to global warming, to unchecked popu- education and mobilization. So, too, will lation growth, and to persistent pov- the media. ertyarguably the greatest threats to Will societies cross these new percep- environmentalhealth and economic tual thresholds soon enough to avoid progress during the next decade and major ecological backlash? Though a beyond. These problems are especially major transformation of attitudes and daunting because they involve deeply priorities is still needed, there are a few rooted patterns of behavior, beliefs, and glimmers of hope on the horizon. values. And none can be alleviated Around the world, people concerned through a simple action or technological about direct threats to their health and fix.Environmental philosopher Lynn livelihoods have banded together to Lake White hinted at the predicament more greater control over theirdestinies. than two decades ago: "I personally Thousands of grassroots movements doubt that disastrous ecologic backlash have arisen on virtually every continent can be avoided simply by applying to our in response to a host of injusticesin- problems more science and more Lech- cluding toxic contamination, industrial nology."16 exploitation of forests, militarization's Indeed,crossingtheperceptual drain on resources, landlessness, and thresholds needed to respond to these lack of access to basic water, sanitation, problems launches humanity toward a and health care services. (See Chapters 8 (8) Stale of the World 1989 and 9.) These groups show that tttobili- to remetnber that progress is an illusion zation for change is possible; more im- if it destroys the conditions needed for portant, perhaps, they form a critical life to thrive on earth. partof theinstitutionalfoundation needed to do the work of sustainable development. In Vietnama nation devastated by war,overpopulation,and poverty THE THREAT OF CLIMATE there are unexpected signs of the kind of perceptual shifts that need to take place CHANGE among national leaders. General Vo When NASA scientist James Hansen an- Nguyen Giap, the former commander- nounced at a Senate hearing during the in-chief of the North Vietnamese Army intense June 1988 heat wave that "global and current vice president, is among the warming has begun," he ignited a whirl- backers of a national plan calling for a wind of public concern that has yet to large-scale family planning program and subside. The warming of the earth's cli- a massive reforestation effortmeasures mate is an environmental catastrophe on urgently needed to lift the country out of a new scale, with the potential to vio- ecological and economic decline. Gen- lently disrupt virtually every natural eco- eral Giap has said, "The soldier comes system and many of the structures and to another front now, the environmental institutions that humanity has grown to front.... Now I seethat without envi- depend on. Although climates have ronmental recovery, Vietnam cannot shifted only slightly so far, the world have economic recovery; the two are in- faces the prospect of vastly accelerated separable....Today I fight for Viet- change in the decades ahead. Conditions nam's environmentand for peace."18 essential to life as we know it are now at In several industrial countries, the ur- risk.20 gency of climate change is beginning to The threat of climate change stems hit home. The prime ministers of Can- from the increasing concentrations of ada and Norway have each publicly en- carbon dioxide (CO2) and other "green- dorsed cutting carbon emissions by 20 house gases" that hold heat in the lower percent by 2005. And in the United atmosphere, allowing temperatures to States, in the wake of the summer of rise. Thehurning of coal and ofother car- 1988'srecord-breakingheatwaves, bon-based fuels such as oil and natural three separate pieces of legislation to gas releases carbon as the basic product slow the pace of global warming were of the combustion, while the large-scale introduced in Congress. Few people clearing of tropical forests adds addi- could have imagined when 1988 began tional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. that climate change would rise so rapidly Just since 1958, when routine measure- on the political agenda.19 ments began, the CO2 concentration has Yet vast chasms separate glimmers of gone from 315 parts per million to 352 hope irom effective responses. A com- parts per millionsubstantially above mitted, active, vocal public is essential to the highest concentrations experienced bring about the policy changes needed on earth in the past 160,000 years.2' to safeguard the earth's environment. Concentrations of other, more potent The difficult choices that lie ahead will greenhouse gasesnotably methane, ni- challenge our social institutions and per- trous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons sonal values as never before. It will help (CFCs)are increasing even more rap-

46 A World at Risk (9) idly. Based on current emission rates, some of these numbers, the overall trend they have as much potential as CO2 to is dear. The global average temperature warm the atmosphere. While the carbon in the 1890s was 14.5 degrees Celsius, dioxide level has grown at a rate of 0.4 and by the 1980s it had climbed to 15.2 percent a year since 1958, these other degrees. Temperatures leveled off be- gases are increasing at annual rates as tween 1940 and 1970, but the acceler- high as 5 percent.22 ated rise during the eighties has more Humanity added 5.5 billion tons of than offset this lull. As noted earlier, the carbontothe atmosphere in1988 five warmest years of the past century through fossil fuel combustion and an- have all fallen in this decade.24 other 0.4 billion to 2.5 billion tons These trends appear to confirm the throughdeforestation.The United global circulation models that scientists States is the largest contributor, but it use to assess the impact of greenhouse may be passed soon by the Soviet Union gases on the climate. NASA's Hansen, and later by China. (See Figure 1-1.) for example, is now 99 percent certain While carbon emissions are growing that the observed temperature increases slowly in the industrial countries that ac- reflect the impact of the greenhouse ef- count for two thirds of the total, they are fect. Meanwhile, the upper atmosphere skyrocketing in the developing world. If is becoming cooler while the lower atmosphere warms, and temperatures at recent worldwide consumption growth higher latitudes are increasing faster rates of about 3 percent per year continue, fossil fuels could contribute 10 than they are at the equator, just as the global warming models predict.25 billion tons of new carbon annually in the year 2010. Meanwhile, deforestation in the Amazon and perhaps other tropical regions appears to have accelerated The five warmest years of the past to frighteningly rapid rates.23 century haveallfalleninthis Teams of British and American scien- decade. tists have assembled series of global average temperatures going back1( 0 years. While experts still disagree about The limited warming that has occurred so far is important to scientists, but Million Tbns of Carbon not threatening to society. Danger lies in 1,500 the acceleration of climate change that appears imminent. Between 2030 and 2050, average temperatures could be 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius (3-8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than they have been in recent decades, or warmer than the earth has been for the past 2 million years. (See Figure 1-2.) This implies a warming that is 5 to 10 times as fast as that experienced during the past century.26 If the spurt in global temperatures 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 thatbeganabout1970continues, Figure 14. Carbon Emissions from Fossil Ards, droughts, heat waves, and other unusual 1954147 weather may increase by the late nineties

- i (ro) State of the World 1989

Degrees production would be tragicallydis- Celsius rupted by a rapid warming.29 20 Trees are adapted to a narrow range 19- of temperature and moisture levels, and cannot cope with rapid climate change. 18 - A temperature increase of 1 degree Cel- sius per decade in mid- to upper lati- 17 - tudes translates into a shift in vegetation zones of 60-100 miles northward. Ter- 16 - restrial ecosystems cannot migrate that fast. Vast numbers of trees are likely to 15 - die, and new trees adapted to warmer temperatures are unlikely to be able to

1880 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 replace them rapidly. During such a disruption, huge areas of forest could die Rpm 1- 2. Observed Global Motage Temperatures.isso-ort, and, as they decay or burn, send large With Projecdous to 2040 quantities of additional CO2 into the atmosphere, accelerating the warming.29 to the point where even nonscientists Biological diversity, already being re- will notice the climate is changing. Al- duced by various human activities, may though there isno proof thatthe be one of the chief casualties of global weather of 1988 is attributable to global warming. Massive destruction of forests, warming, the extreme heat and dryness wetlands. and even the polar tundra in areas such as central North America could irrevocably destroy complex eco- and China indicate what. may be in store systems that have existed for millennia. for the nineties and beyond. In the fu- Indeed, various biological reserves cre- ture, higher latitude and mid-continen- ated in the past decade to protect species tal regions in the United States and diversity could become virtual death China are likely to experience greater traps as wildlife attempt to survive in temperature rises than the world as a conditions for which they are poorly whole. In these areas, stifling summer suited. Accelerated species extinction is heat waves and devastating droughts an inevitable consequence of a rapid may soon be commonplace.27 warming.39 It is still argued by some that climate Sea level rise is another threat. As change will have positive as well as nega- ocean water warms, it will expand, and tive effects. and that it is a problem with warming at the poles will melt parts of which societies can readily cope. But this glaciers and ice caps. Studies conclude ignores the extraordinary rate of change that a temperature rise of 3 degrees Cel- that is now projected, and the impossi- sius by 2050 would raise sea level by 50- bility of adjusting quickly enough. Scien- 100 centimeters. Bytheend of the next tists believe that the pace of climate century, sea level may be up by as much change will soon overwhelm natural var- as two meters.31 iability in the earth's climate. Indeed. it This would hurt most in the develop- can be compared with nuclear war for its ing world, particularly in densely popu- potential to disrupt a wide range of lated Asia, where rice is produced on human and natural systems, complicat- low-lying river deltas and floodplains. ing the task of managing economies and Without heavy investments in dikes and coping with other problems. Irrigation seawalls to protect the rice fields from works, settlement patterns, and food saltwater intrusion, such a rise would

25 .1 World at Risk (it) markedly reduce harvests. Large areas of mon in a wanner world, but their precise wetlands that nourish the world's fisher- location and timing ntay never be en- ies would also be destroyed.32 tirely predictable. A handful of extreme In Bangladesh, sea level rise and sub- stortns could kill tnilliotts of people. In sidence caused largely by human activi- many developing countries. two or three ties could flood up to 18 percent of the droughts in a row could leave millions nation's land area by 2050, displacing starving.96 more than 17 million people. In Egypt, When air pollution and solid waste where only 4 percent of the laud area can disposal first commanded attention in be cultivated. food production could the seventies, analysts were at least able drop and 8.5 million people could be to point to solutions to the problems and forced from their homes. In these al- come up with 5- or 10-year action plans. ready crowded countries, there is no One of the most disturbing things about place for these people to go and no alter- global warming is that even as some of native land available on which to grow its implications are being discovered, it crops. (See Chapter 4.)" appears that substantial and damaging In the United States, a U.S. govern- climate change is inevitable due to the mentsponsored study has estimated the enormous changes forced on the earth's potential impacts of climate change on atmosphere over the past century. Cleveland, Miami, and New York. A few minor benefits are mentioned, such as lower snow removal budgets and winter In the game of climate change, it is heating bills, but the overall picture is not the averages that kill, it is the bleak. In particular, many billions of dol- extremes. lars will likely have to be spent on improving already inadequate water supply systems, since demand will increase and Climate change has so much momen- supplies will be degraded as the climate tum behind it now that it can only be changes.34 slowed, not stopped. (See Chapter 10.) In New York, for example, salt water Future generations will have to cope could move up the lower Hudson River with a warmer and ever-changing world, while more-severe droughts limit the one in which major investments are re- amount of water available from upstate quired simply to maintain the status quo. watersheds. In Miami, most of which was Global warming will hurt rich and poor, once below sea level, even extensive dik- North and South alike. But those most at ing will not preserve its porous freshwa- risk are the almost 4 billion people who ter aquifer. If global warming continues, live in the Third World, many of whom Miami could one day be reclaimed by the already face declining living standards sea. Meanwhile, air-conditioning costs and who lack the resources to protect are likely to soar." themselves from spreading deserts and Global circulation models and the var- rising sea levels. ious studies that flow from them mainly Indeed, climate change, like no other forecast averages. But in the game of cli- issue, calls the whole notion of human mate change, it is not the averages that progress into question. The benefits of kill,itisthe extremes. Unexpected newertechnologies,moreefficient droughts, extraordinary heat waves, and economies, and improved political sys- devastating hurricanes are among the tems could be overwhelmed by uncon- dangerous events likely to be more com- trolled global warming. Some warming

P 6 (12) SlateoftheWorld 1989 is inevitable. But unless trends are resumed directly and a sizable pan of the versed, tragic changes could occur in remainder when consumed indirectly as just the ncia two decades. The challenge meat, milk, and eggs. Between 1986 and is to act before itis too latewhich 1988, production per person fell 14 per- means before the scientific evidence is cent, dropping back to the level of 1970. conclusive. The longer society waits, the (See Figure 1-3.) Roughly 11 percent more radical and draconian the needed was offset by using carryover stocks of responses will be. grain; the remaining 3 percent translates into reduced food intake, largely because of higher world grain prices.39 This reversal in humanity's agricul- turalfortuneshasoccurredrather A LossOF FOOD SECURITY abruptly. For those accustomed to read- ing as recently as early 1988 of "a world As the eighties draw to a close, climate awash in grain," the latest downturn in change is being added to an already long grain output may come as a surprise. Al- list of environmental stresses and re- though not widely recognized at the source scarcities that are undermining time, the impressive growth in world global food security. Soil erosion, de- production following the doubling of sertification,the salting of irrigated world grain prices in 1973 was achieved lands, and a scarcity of new cropland and in pan by plowing highly erodible land, fresh water are combining to lower the and in part by drawing down water ta- growth in food output below that of pop- bles through overpumping for irriga- ulation in dozens of developing coun- tion. tries. Partly as a result, the world now Farmers can overplow and overpump has far more hungry people than it did with impressive results in the short run, when the eighties began.37 but for many the short run is drawing to A dramatic 2.6-fold increase in grain a close. The result is a worldwide re- production between 1950 and 1984 trenchment in cultivated area and a dra- raised per capita consumption by nearly matic slowdown in the spread of irriga- 40 percent. But since then growth has tion.Ashighlyerodiblecropland stopped. In each of the past two years, brought under the plow during the agri- worldgrainproductionhasfallen sharply, marking the first steep back-to- back annual declines on record. A mon- soonfailureinIndiain1987 and drought-reducedharvestsinNorth America and China in 1988 explain only part of the reduction. In several populous countries, including China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico, little or no progress has been made in expanding grain production since 1984.38 Continuing rapid growth of world 100 population during the last few years Sour= US. Dept combined with the reduced harvests has olAgticulture led to a record fall in per capita output 1950 1960 1970 1980 19r, 2000 of grain, the food source that accounts Figure 1-3. %rid Qat Production for half of world caloric intake when con- Per capita, 195048 27 4 World at Risk 03) cultural boom years of the seventies is chronicfoodinsecurityareChad, taken out of cultivation, and as falling Mozambique, Somalia, and Uganda. watertablesin key food-producing (See Table 1-1.) The Bank summarized countries force a reduction in irrigated its findings by noting that "Africa's food area, the growth in world food output is situation is not only serious, it is deteri- slowing.'" orating."'" The island of Madagascar, with a population of 11 million expanding by 3 per- In each of the past two years, world cent per year, reveals in some detail how grainproduction has fallen population growth and environmental deterioration are affecting people. As sharply. with the rest of Africa, per capita grain production peaked in 1967 and declined gradually until 1983, when the fall accel- Evidence that environmental degrada- erated. Since then average grain con- tion in some regions is altering the food sumption has fallen by nearly one fifth, prospect and, in turn, the human pros- pushing food intake below the survival pect is unmistakable. In Africa, a deteri- level for many. Infant mortality, the orating agricultural resource base, re- most sensitive indicator of nutritional cord population growth, and economic stress, rose from 75 to 133 per thousand mismanagement lowered grain output between 1975 and 1985. Short of a mira- per person throughout the seventies. During the eighties, mounting external Table I-1. Food InsecurityinSelected debt reduced capital available for invest- African Countries, 1986 ment in agriculture, exacerbating the de- Number Share of cline.'" Country of People Population The social effects of agricultural ad- versity are now becoming highly visible (million) (percent) throughout the continent. In mid-1988. Ethiopia 14.7 34 the World Bank reported that "both the Nigeria 13.7 13 proportion and the total number of Afri- Zaire 12.0 38 cans with deficient diets have climbed Tanzania 6.6 29 and will continue to rise unless special Kenya 6.2 29 action is taken." The Bank went on to say that "barely a quarter of Africans are Uganda 6.1 40 living in countries where food consump- Mozambique 5.9 42 tion was increasing in the 1980s, down Algeria 4.1 18 considerably from about two-thirds in Ghana 4.1 31 the 1970s."42 Sudan 3.4 15 In Africa, the number of "food inse- cure" people, defined by the Bank as Zambia 2.7 39 those not having enough food for nor- Mali 2.5 33 mal health and physical activity, now to- Chad 2.4 47 tals over 100 million. Some 14.7 million Morocco 2.4 11 Ethiopians, one third of the country, are Somalia 2.3 42 undernourished. Nigeria is close behind, SOURCE:World Bank,Report of Ike Task Force on Food with 13.7 million undernourished peo- Security in Africa (Washington. D.C.:1988): World ple. The countries with 40 percent or Bank.World Development Report 1988(New York: more of their populations suffering from Oxford University Press. 1988).

28 (1.) State of the Work! 1989 cle, the future of this country, with a price of the loaf would increase only to birth rate among the world's highest and $1.05. In developing countries, how- a rate of topsoil loss greater even than ever, where wheat is purchased in the that of Ethiopia, is not bright.44 market and ground into flour at home, a This deterioration is not limited to doubling of world grain prices translates Africa. In Latin America, which exported into a doubling of prices to consumers. more grain than North America did a For those who already spend most of mere half-century ago, per capita grain their income on food, such a rise can production has fallen 7 percent since drive consumption below the survival reaching an all -time high in 1981. In its level." 1988 report "The Global State of Hun- For debt-ridden, food-deficit, low-in- ger and Malnutrition," the U.N.'s World come countries, higher world prices of Food Council reports that the share of wheat, rice, and corn mean lower con- malnourished preschoolers in Peru insumption and more hunger. (See Table creased from 42 percent to 68 percent 1-2.) Higher corn prices will affect most between 1980 and 1983. Infant deaths have risen in Brazil during the eighties. directly corn-consuming countries in If recent trends in population growth, East Africa and Latin America. The ris- land degradation, and growth in exter- ing price orrice will reduce caloric intake nal debt continue, Latin America's de- among the low-income populations of cline in food production per person will Asia, where 90 percent of the world's almost certainly continue into the nine- rice is consumed. The 1988 jump in the ties, increasing the number of hungry, price of wheat, the principal grain used malnourished people. The Council sum- for food aid, will reduce the amount marized its worldwide findings by noting available from international develop- that "earlier progress in fighting hunger, ment agencies.48 malnutrition and poverty has come to a Already faced with a deteriorating halt or is being reversed in many parts of food situation, the world is now con- the workl."46 fronted with climate change, an addi- When domestic food production is tionalthreatto food security. The inadequate, the ability of countries to import becomes the key to food suffi- Table 1-2. World Grain Prices, July 1988, ciency. During the late eighties, low-in. Compared With July 1987 come grain-deficit countries must con- _July _July tend not only with an increase in grain Grain 197 1988 Change prices, but also in many cases with unmanageable external debt, which (current severely limits their expenditures on dollars) (percent) food imports. The World Bank nutrition Wheat 2.854.07 +43 survey of Africa just cited was based on (price per bushel) data through 1986; since then, condi. lions have deteriorated further as world Rice 212 305 +44 grain prices have climbed.46 (price per ton) The effect of higher grain prices on consumers is much greater in develop. Com 1.94 3.22 +66 ing countries than in industrial ones. In (price per bushel) the United States, for example, a $1 loaf SOURCE: International Monetary Fund. International of bread contains roughly 50 worth of Finandal Statistics(WashingtorD.C.:various wheat. If the price of wheat doubles, the months).

29 A World at Risk (15) drought-damaged U.S. grain harvest in crease the winter wheat belt might mi. 1988, which fell below consumption for grate northward, allowing winter strains the first time in recent history, illustrates that yield 40 bushels per acre to replace how global warming may affect agricul- spring varieties yielding 30 bushels. A ture over the longer term in the United longer growing season would also per- Statesand elsewhere. With normal mit a northward extension of spring weather, the United States typically har- wheat production into areas such as vests more than 300 million tons of Canada's Alberta province, thus increas- grain; Americans consume roughly 200 ing that nation's cultivated area. On bal- million tons and the rest is exported. Be- ance, though, higher temperatures and cause this year's drought eliminated the increased summer dryness will reduce share of harvest normally sold overseas, the North American grainharvest, exports during the 1988-89 trade year largely because of their negative impact will come entirely from reserves.49 on the all-important corn crop. As noted earlier, climate change will Drought, which afflicted most of the not affect all countries in the same way. United States during the past summer, is The projected rise of 1.5-4.5 degrees essentially defined as dryness. For farm- Celsius (3-8 degrees Fahrenheit) is a ers, drought conditions can result from global average, but temperatures are ex- lower than normal rainfall, higher than pected to increase much more in the normal temperatures, or both. When middle and higher latitudes and more higher temperatures accompany below- over land than over the oceans. They are normal rainfall, as they did during the projected to change little near the equa- summer of 1988, crop yields can fall tor, while gains in the higher latitudes precipitously. Extreme heat can also in- could easily be twice the anticipated terfere with the pollination of crops. global average. This uneven distribution Corn pollination can easily be impaired will affect world agriculture dispropor- by uncommonly high temperatures dur- tionately, since most food is produced in ing the 10-day period when fertilization the middle and higher latitudes of the occurs, usually in July.st northern hemisphere.50 A study from the National Center for Though they remain sketchy, AtmosphericResearchinBoulder, meteorological models suggest that two Colorado, suggests that a rise in average of the world's major food-producing re- temperatures will also increase the prob- gionsthe North American agricultural ability of extreme short-term heat waves. heartland and a large area of central If these occur at critical timessuch as Asiaare likely to experience a decline the corn pollination periodthey can in soil moisture during the summer have a much greater effect on crop yields growing season as a result of higher tem- than the relatively modest average temperatures and increased evaporation. If perature increase of a few degrees might the warming progresses as the models indicate.53 indicate, some of the land in the U.S. This vulnerability of corn, which ac- western Great Plains that now produces counts for two thirds of the U.S. grain wheat would revert to rangeland. The harvest and one eighth of the world's, western Corn Belt would become semi- can cause wide year-to-year swings in the arid, with wheat or other drought-toler- world grain crop. An examination of ant grains that yield 40 bushels per acre U.S. corn yields since 1950 shows five replacing corn that yields over 100 bush- sharply reduced harvests over the last 38 els.51 years. (See Figure I-4.) The only pro- On the plus side, as temperatures in- nounced drops before tilt: eighties came (1'6) State of the World 1989 Judging by the historical record, the odds are against severe back-to-back droughts, but with the warming now apparently under way, hot dry summers will become more frequent. In the event of another disastrous drought, U.S. grain exports would drop dramatically. The world would face a food emergency for which there is no precedent in the decades since North America emerged as its breadbasket. There would be a desperate effort to corner available supplies as world grain prices soared to record I950 t960 1970 t980 1990 2000 levels. In such a situation, preventing figure 1-4. US. Coes Ildd Per Healle. starvation among the world's poor would 1950401 require affluent countries tu reduce the amount ofgrain fed to livestock. in 1970, from an outbreak of corn blight, Asian and African countries, in partic- and in 1974, when a wet spring and late ular, would find it impossible to feed planting combined with an early frost to their people without North American destroy a part of the crop before it grain. Many of the world's major cities matured.54 Leningrad, Cairo, Lagos, Caracas, and Three harvests since 1950 have been Tokyo, for exampledepend largely on sharply reduced by drought, all in the grain from the United States and Can- eighties. Each drop has been worse than ada- in an integrated world food econ- the last. Compared with the preceding omy, all countries suffer the conse- year, the 1980 corn yield per hectare was quences of poor harvests." down by 17 percent, that in 1983 was All available evidence indicates that down by 28 percent, and that in 1988 by the ranks of the hungry are expanding a staggering 34 percent.55 during the late eighties, reversing the These three reduced harvests each oc- trend of recent decades. Uncertainties curred during one of the five warmest and stresses from a changing climate are years globally of the last century. There now being overlaid upon an already is no way to conclusively link the tightening food situation. In the absence drought-depressed U.S. harvests with of a major commitment by govern- theglobalwarming,sinceannual ments to slow population growth and weather variability is so much greater strengthen agriculture, food insecurity than the rise in average global tempera- and the social instability associated with tures measured during the eighties.56 it will preoccupy the political leaders of Among other things, the prospect of many countries during the nineties. climate change increases uncertainty over future harvests, making decisions more complicatedforfarmersand policymakers alike. For example, the 1989 U.S. grain crop could be a bin- WORLD WITHOUT BORDERS buster, the largest ever harvested. With a normal harvest elsewhere in the world, The global commonsthe oceans, the this would permit at least a modest re- atmosphere, and tropical forestsare building of depleted grain reserves. now at risk. Ozone depletion, climate 31 A World at Risk (i7) change, and oceanic pollution simply computer modeling. Although several cannot be solved at the national level. countries are now actively participating Indeed, a world in which countries go in this program, funding commitments their own way may not be worth living in. have lagged and need to be increased. Whereas the seventies were marked by a Heightened awareness of these prob- series of national leas to address envi- lems is likely to give the Global Change ronmental problems, the nineties may Program a boost." well be marked by comparable initiatives International environmental coopera- at the international level. tion has come furthest in Western One encouraging signisthat the Europe, where a score of countries are North-South tensions that pervaded the squeezed into a small area and trade pol- United Nations and other international lutants back and forth across their bor- forums in the seventies have begun to ders via winds and rivers. Much of the ease. Industrial-country leaders recog- region's environmental regulationis nize their interest in and responsibility now done under the auspices of the for participating in sustainable develop- European Economic Community. ment. And developing countries increasingly see (heir stake in environmental protection. Protecting the biosphere is a new East-West differences are also being channel for the vast energies now bridged. The Soviet Union has proposed directed to the cold war rivalry. a major strengthening of international institutions to deal with global problems. Addressing the U.N. General As- Production and trade of toxic sub- sembly in September 1988, Soviet For- stances in Western Europe is already eignMinister Eduard Shevardnadze regulated by the community. Automo- stated that "the dividing lines of the bile emission limits were also recently bipolar world are receding. The bio- approved by the European Parliament, sphere recognizes no division into blocs, thoughfurther negotiationsarere- alliances or systems. All share the same quired before their final shape is clear. climatic system." Western leaders, still Also, the European Commission is con- startled by the fading of Soviet intransi- sidering an environmental freedom-of- gence, are daring to dream of a more information proposal, ensuring public unified world community. Protecting the access to key environmental facts. When biosphere is a new channel for the vast most of the remaining economic barriers energies now directed to the cold war in Western Europe are torn down in rivalry." 1992, environmental cooperation will Scientific cooperation is one aspect of need to be strengthened." environmental protection that has ad- The world community as a whole has vanced in recent years. Most notable is also moved forward in protecting the at- the International Geosphere-Biosphere mosphere. During the seventies, it be- Program, also known as the Global came clear that air pollution was cross- Change Program. Established in 1986, it ing borders and damaging forests. While is intended to deepen un6erstanding of countries are reluctant to make major the physical, chemical, and biological investments to protect their neighbors' forces that affect the biosphere, using environments, all now have an interest more extensive national monitoring, sat- in these kinds of agreements. Indeed, for ellitereconnaissance, and advanced Canadians and Scandinavians, imported

32 ,

(z8) State of the World 1989 air pollution has become a major foreign seas. It provides a framework for future policy consideration. (See Chapter 8.) international agreements to protect this In 1979, a U.N.-sponsored Conven- global resource." tion on Long-Range Transboundary Air Central to the Law of the Sea are the Pollution was agreed to by 35 countries 200-mile exclusive economic zones cre- in Eastern and Western Europe and ated around coastal nations, giving them North America. Its first concrete result the legal authority and international ob- was the Protocol on the Reduction of ligation to manage their coastal re- Sulfur Emissions, signed in 1985 by 21 sources effectively. These now encom- nations. By 1986, as noted earlier, 10 pass 40 percent of the world's ocean nations had met the 30-percent reduc- area, and have led, for example, to a cut tion goal set for 1993, and 4 had com- in the Northwest Atlantic cod catch by mitted to 70-percent cuts. A similar long-range fleets of at least 90 percent. agreement to freeze nitrogen oxide The Law of the Sea also calls for national emissions at 1987 levels was signed by laws that reduce ocean dumping. Addi- 24 nations in 1988.61 tional, stricter regulations of pollution In each of these agreements, scientific are needed if oceanic resources are to be evidence sparked the process, but action protected from the bewildering profu- was fueled by nations willing to make sion of new toxic chemicals. The next unilateralcommitments.Concerned decade will likely see a continuation of officials then grasped at the most readily the growing array of oceanic agree- available institution. Already, members ments, some connected to the Law of the of the Transboundary Air Pollution Sea, and others independent.64 Convention are monitoring other pollu- The international community also has tants with an eye to regulating them as a critical role to play in protecting the well. However, without stricter enforce- ozone layer. (See Chapter 5.) Although ment and the participation of more the United States and Scandinavian countries, air pollution will continue to countries limited some uses of ozone- worsen.62 damaging chlorofluorocarbons as early The world's oceans are another global as the mid-seventies, attempts to address commons needing international protec- the problem began in earnest in the tion. The activities of one country can eighties. As scientific evidence mounted, endanger the open ocean as well as the the United Nations Environment Pro- coastal ecosystems of other nations. gramme led the effort to create the Water pollution, ocean dumping of Vienna Convention for the Protection of waste materials, and overfishing are the Ozone Layer, adopted M 1985 to among the threats. provide a mechanism for CFC con- On April 30, 1982, after 10 years of trols.65 negotiations, the Convention on the Law Spurred by a dramatic annual thinning of the Sea was signed by 119 nations, 35 of the ozone over Antarctica, the United of which have ratified it. Although 22 States led the push for CFC controls countries, including the Soviet Union while the British and Japanese held back and the United States, refused to sign, in favor of "economic caution." A mid- the Law of the Sea has already improved dle position favored by West Germany the way oceans are managed. It is in ef- and the Netherlands carried the day. In fect a constitution for the oceans, stating 1987, the Montreal Protocol was estab- that the oceans are "the common heri- lished and has now been signed by 35 tage of mankind," ensuring free naviga- countries. It freezes CFC production at tion and limiting actions that despoil the 1986 levels and calls fora 50-percent cut

33 A World at Risk ('9) by 1998 in industrial countries, but al- Some have called for an international lows for some increases in the develop- "Law of the Atmosphere" parallel to the ing world. It has already become clear Law of the Sea." that this is not enough. The convention Such a treaty must deal both with in- permits negotiations on stricter limits, dustrial countries that have caused much preparationsforwhicharebeing of the problem so far and developing made.66 ones whose use of energy is growing rap- Climate change is fast becoming the idly and adding to global warming. De- next arena for international environ- veloping countries argue convincingly mental agreement, and solutions to the that if they are going to vastly improve problem may have to break new institu- efficiency and reforest millions of hec- tional ground. Indeed, if climate change tares, they will need funding from richer is to be minimized, international action nations. may have to precede rather than follow national actions. Already, business and political leaders are arguing against If climate change is to be mini- stringentnationalpoliciesonthe mized, international action may grounds that by themselves such actions would hardly make a difference. This is have to precede rather than follow particularly true for small nations that national actions. feel impotent in the face of global changes over which they have only a tiny influence. At the U.N. General Assembly in the The first step is scientific cooperation. fall of 1988, a host of ministers and am- The International Council of Scientific bassadors drew attentiontoglobal Unions and the World Meteorological warming and the need for the world Organization are coordinating interna- community to address it. The Maltese tional research on climate change. At a Ambassador called for a major U.N. November 1987 meeting in Bellagio, study on climate and the development of Italy, consensus was reached about the a global strategy. Cyprus suggested a need for action. Policy discussions began special session on the environment, and in earnest in June 1988 at a world con- the Soviet Union called for turning the ference on The Changing Atmosphere: U.N. Environment Programme into an Implications for Global Security, held in Environmental Council that can take ef- Toronto. Sponsored by the Canadian fective actions to ensure ecological secu- government, the meeting included the rity.69 prime ministers of Canada and Norway As with other issues, unilateral com- and the top environmental officials of mitments by individual countries may be other countries. The final statement said the leadership spark needed to ignite in- that carbon emissions should be reduced ternational agreement. The govern- by 20 percent by 2005.67 ments of Canada, the Netherlands, and If such goals are to be achieved, an Norway are among those committed to international treaty will probably be internationalnegotiations on global needed. The Montreal Protocol and the warming. The Soviet Union has ex- Convention on Long-Range Trans- pressed interest in it, and U.S. resistance boundary Air Pollution provide useful is fading. Some have compared the models, but for a global warming treaty scope of such negotiations to those of to be effective it must be far broader in strategic arms talks. Indeed, similar ap- scope and include additional nations. proaches may have to be applied. For (w) Slate of the World 1989 example, it may make sense to set up United Nations. And japan has indicated permanent negotiating teams ini Geneva a willingness to fund major new multilat- as a way to introduce and discuss ap- eral initiatives. At the same time, the proaches raised by various govern- United Nations has played a critical role ments.70 in everything from the fight against The next step isto move beyond AIDS (see Chapter7)to the cease-fire in agreements on CFCs, the oceans, and the Iran-Iraq war.72 climate change to a more comprehensive Maurice Strong, the first head of the rescue plan for the global environment. U.N.EnvironmentProgramme,has Among the issues now ripe for discus- pointed out that the world faces the sion of new international conventions or challenge of developing effective mech- protocols are the preservation of bio- anismsfor governance, or manage- diversity, the slowing of deforestation, ment, at the international level: "Peo- and perhaps even family planning. This ple have learned to enlarge the circles will require a strengthening of interna- of their allegiance and their loyalty. as tional institutions and a willingness to well as the institutions through which give up unilateral authority in some they are governed, from the family to areas. Today these institutions are often the tribe to the village to the town to fragmented and ineffective in dealing the city to the nation state. We are now with global problems. But just as na- called upon to make the next and final tionalgovernmentsthemselvesfirst step, at least on this planet, to the glob- emerged as tentative and weak efforts to al level."73 unite diverse tribes or city-states, so in- This does not mean an end to national ternational institutions may one day governments. just as people did not give become far more robust and central to up allegiance to family or town when na- the issues of our time. tion-states were created, so national gov- The year 1988 was marked by a series ernments can exist within a strength- of important steps in what Richard ened world community. The solutions to Gardner, professor of international law many problems are close to home at Columbia University, has termed often within a local government or grass- "practical internationalism." The roots organization. All these levels of United Nations played a central role in human organization can continue and resolving major conflicts in the Middle even thrive as international cooperation East, Afghanistan, and southern Africa. is expanded. (See Chapter 8.) In each case, the war- The era of superpower dominance of ring parties recognized that they had a bipolar world is rapidly fading, and more to gain from peace than from fur- perhaps with it the notion that one or ther bloodshed. But the United Nations two "great powers" can ever preside made the peace process work. In just over the complex, multifaceted, prob- recognition, U.N. Peacekeeping Forces lem-ridden world in which we now find were awarded the 1988 Nobel Peace ourselves.Loomingthreatstothe Prize.'n world's climate and the undermining of A strengthening of the U.N. system, other global commons may soon make providing it with more reliable sources the transition to stronger international of revenue and clearer lines of authority, institutions inevitable. As Prime Minis- will be essential. Already, the world is ter Brundtland of Norway stated at the moving in this direction. During 1988, 1988 Toronto Conference, "Now it is both the Soviet Union and the United time to take a giant leap forward in the States began to settle large debts to the upgrading of civilization."74 2 Halting Land Degradation Sandra Pastel

Major droughts in Africa, China, India, ishment of the land by human activities. and North America over the last four Perhaps a more appropriate term is land years have spotlighted an immutable re- degradation, which in this chapter is ality for much of the world: despite a used interchangeably with desertifica- myriad of sophisticated technologies tion.' and scientific advances, humanity's wel- Each year, irreversible desertification fare remains tightly linked to the land. claims an estimated 6 million hectares Millions in these drought-stricken re- worldwidea land area nearly twice the gions have watched their economic fu- size of Belgium lost beyond practical turesor, in the worst cases,their hope of reclamation. An additional 20 chances for survivalfade. For the first million hectares annually become so im- time in more than a decade, global food poverished that they are unprofitable to security has come into question. (See farm or graze. Most of the affected land, Chapter 3.) however, lies on the degradation con- While these headline-making events tinuum, somewhere between fully pro- ignite concern for a few weeks or ductive and hopelessly degraded. Unfor- months, the true tragedy goes unno- tunately, much of it is sliding down the ticed. Much of the world's food-produc- diminishing productivity side of the ing land is being sapped insidiously of its scale.2 productive potential through overuse, Although the technologies to restore lack of care, or unwise treatmenta pro- resilience and fertility to stressed lands cessscientistscall"desertification." exist, so far the political will does not. While the term conjures up images of The majority of people affected are poor the Sahara spreading beyond its bounds farmers and pastoralists living at soci- to engulf new territories, its most worri- ety's margins and lacking a political some aspects are less dramatic. Desert- voice. A lasting victory over land degra- ification refers broadly to the impover- dation will remain a distant dream with-

-,- (22) State offlitWorld 1989 out social and economic reforms that meteorologistF. Kenneth Hare re- give rural people the security of tenure marked grimly: 'It is alarming that ten and access to resources they need to im- years later ... the news stories should be prove the land. And with degradation so familiar."3 rooted in excessive human pressures, Seven years after the Nairobi confer- slowing population growth lies at the ence, the United Nations Environment heart of any effective strategy. Programme (UNEP) took a more careful Land degradation may be difficult to look at the overall status and trends of rally around and adopt as a cause. Yet its desertification worldwide. This included consequencesworsened droughts and sending a questionnaire to 91 countries floods, famine, declining living stan- with lands at risk. These dataincom- dards, and swelling numbers of environ- plete, sketchy, and lacking in geographic mental refugeescould not be more detail though they areremain the best real or engender more emotion. A world available and are more than sufficient to of 5.1 billion people, growing by 86 mil- grasp the severity of the problem. lion each year, cannot afford to be losing According to UNEP's 1984 assess- the productivity of its food base. With- ment, 4.5 billion hectares, or 35 percent out good land, humanity quite literally of the earth's land surface, are threatened by desertification. Of this totalon has nothing to grow on. which a fifth of humanity makes its liv- ingthree fourths has already been at least moderately degraded. (See Table 2-1.) Fully one third has already lost more than 25 percent of its productive LANDS AND PEOPLE AT RISK potential. What lies behind these numbers is a Morethan adecadehas passed since government representatives from deteriorating relationship between people and the land that supports them (see around the world gathered at the United Table 2-2), a situation all the more Nations Conference on Desertification. tragic because people themselves are Held in 1977 in Nairobi, Kenya, the not only degradation's victims but its un- meeting followed on the heels of a dev- witting agents. The four principal causes astating drought that struck much of of land degradationovergrazing on western and north-central Africa from rangelands,overcultivation of crop- 1968 through 1973.Itfocused the lands, waterlogging and salinization of world's attention for the first time on the irrigated lands, and deforestationall problems and prospects of fragile lands. stem from excessive human pressures or Out of Nairobi came a Plan of Action poor management of the land. to Combat Desertification, which recom- Rangelands and the animals that graze mended 28 measures that national, re- them play an important role in the global gional, and international institutions food supply. The 3 billion cattle, sheep, could take to halt land deterioration goats, and camels that roam the world's around the world. Sadly, the action plan pastures can do something humans can- never got off the ground, a victim of not: they convert lignocellulosea main inadequate funding and lack of sus- product of photosynthesis that is indi- tained commitment by governments. gestible to humansinto meat and milk When severe drought and famine re- that provide the human population with peated themselves in Africa in 1983 and high-quality protein. Shifts to livestock 1984, again bringing tragedy, Canadian fed on grain or forage have diminished 37 Halting Land Degradation (23) Table 2-1. Status of Desertification in the World's Dry lands, 1983-841

Area Annually Deteriorating Share of to Level of Area at Least Category at Least Zero Net Land-Use Category Moderately DegradedModerately DegradedEconomic Return (million hectares) (percent) (million hectares) Rangelands 3,100 84 17.7 Rain fed Croplands 335 59 2.0 Inigated Land 40 31 0.6

All Three Categories 3.475 77 20.3 1Dry lands includes the arid. semiarid. and subhumid climatic zones. SOURCES: United Nations Environment Programme. General Assessment of Progress in the Implementation of the Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (New Yott: United Nations. 1984); annual deterioration from H.E. Dregne. Desertification of kid Lands (New York: Harwood Academic Publishers. 1983). dependence on grazing animals in some dry spell hits, the number of livestock regions. But in much of Africa and the exceeds what the reduced area of grass Middle East, and in parts of India and can sustain. The result is overgrazing Latin America, roaming ruminants still and accelerated land degradation. a pat- underpin subsistence economies and tern most visible in Africa, where more support millions of pastoralist families.4 than half the world's livestock-depen- Degradation on rangelands mainly dent people live.6 takes the form of a deterioration in the Livestock watering holes, a popular quality and, eventually, the quantity of feature of international development vegetation as a result of overgrazing. As projects, have contributed to rangeland the size of livestock herds surpasses the desertification as well. Cattle cannot go carrying capacity of perennial grasses on more than three days without water, so the range, less palatable annual grasses digging water holes to sustain herds dur- and shrubs move in. If overgrazing and ing dry seasons seems logical. But the trampling continue, plant cover of all concentration of livestock around the types begins to diminish, leaving the watering points leads to severe localized land exposed to the ravages of wind and overgrazing, which gradually spreads water. In the severest stages, the soil outward from this central area. When forms a crust as animal hooves trample drought strikes again, the animals rarely nearly bare ground, and erosion acceler- will die from thirst, but rather from lack ates. The formation of large gullies or of forage.? sand dunes signals that desertification For more than two decades, farmers in can claim another victory.5 south-central Niger have lamented in Ironically, years of abundant rain fall Hausa to development workers that seemingly beneficial to pastoral peo- kasar mu, la gaji,"the land is tired." Peas- plescan often sow the seeds of further ants in western parts of the country degrad anon and hardship. During wet- strike a more ominous chord in Zarma ter periods the area suitable for grazing withlaabu, y bu."the land is dead." The expands, leading pastoralists to increase phrases aptly depict land suffering from the sizes of their herds as insurance overcultivation, which now affect:at against another drought. When the next least 335 million hectares of rainfed 9 8 0

(24) State of the World 1939 Table 2-2. Observations of Land Degradation, Selected Countries and Regions

Country/Source Observation Mali On the Landsat maps. there is nowand Patricia A. Jacobberger. geologist. there wasn't in 1976a bright ring of soil Smithsonian Institution, 1986 around villages. Those areas are now 90% devoid of vegetation, the topsoil is gone, and the surface is disrupted and cracked."

Mauritania "There were only 43 sand-storms in the Sidy Goye...lotbio. 1987 whole country between 1960 and 1970. The number increased tenfold in the following decade, and in ... 1983 alone a record 240 sandstorms darkened the nation's skies."

Tunisia "Rangelands have been overgrazed with UNEP, 1987 three heads of cattle where only one could thrive ... Two-thirds of the land area of Tunisia is being eaten away by desertification."

China "Unless urgent measures are taken, Beijing Review, interview with Zhu Zhcnda, desertification will erode an additional Chinese Academy of Sciences. 1988 75,500 square kilometers ... by the year 2000, more than twice the area of Taiwan.""

Indonesia "Thirty-six watersheds. .. have critical Ronald Greenberg and M.L. Higgins. erosion problems, . .. In Kalimantan, the U.S. AID Jakarta, 1987 silt load in streams has increased 55 fold in some logging areas."

Thailand "The pace of deforestation has been D. Phantumvanit and K.S. Sathirathai, accelerating since the early 1900s, but it Thailand Development Research Board, has moved into a higher gear since the 1988 1960s ... 'Between 1961 and 1986,1 Thailand lost about 45 percent of its forests."

Brazil "Every year, rains slash deeper into the Mac Margolis, interview with geologist bared soil, dumping tons of silt in Helio Penha, II12shington Post, February waterways, causing rivers to overflow into 1988 the city's streets. Now 'people flee the drought in the Northeast only to die in floods in Rio'." souttcr Worldwatch institute, based on various sources.

:19 Halting Land Degradation (25) croplandworldwide(excludingthe gauge in other than broad terms. (See humid regions), more than a third of the Chapter 3.) One useful measure is the global total.'" load of earth materials carried to the sea Agricultural land left without vegeta- by rivers and streams. This figure totals tive cover or situated on steeply sloping at least 20.3 billion tons per year, which hillsides is subject to the erosive power includes 15.3 billion tons of suspended of wind and rainwater. An inch of soil sediment, 4 billion of dissolved material, takes anywhere from 200 to 1.000 years and I billion of coarser bed load. Since to form; under the most erosive condi- this accounts only for material reaching tions, that same soil can be swept off the the seaand excludes, for instance, sed- land in just a few seasons. Erosion saps iment trapped behind damsit underes- the land's productivity because most of timates the total amount of soil lost from the organic matter and nutrients are in the land."'" the upper layers of soil. According to A look at the geographic distribution one estimate, about half the fertilizer ap- of these sediment loads gives a quick plied to U.S. farmland each year is re- sense of where severe erosion is taking placing soil nutrients lost through ero- place. (See Table 2-3.) A 1987 expedi- sion. In addition, erosion degrades the tion of the internationally sponsored soil's structure and diminishes its water- Ocean Drilling Program estimated that holding capacity. As a result, crops have the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers on less moisture available to them, which, the Indian subcontinent transport 3 bil- especially in drier regions, is often ero- lion tons of sediment to the Bay of Ben- sion's most damaging effect.9 gal each year, far more than any other Only a handful of countries have at- river system. The sediment fan on the tempted to estimate their rates of soil floor of the bay now spans 3 million loss in any detail, so the magnitude of square kilometers. Much of that sedi- the problem worldwide is difficult to ment originates in the Himalayas, where Table 2-3. Annual Sediment Load Transported to the Sea by Major Rivers, Early Eighties

Drainage Annual Suspended River System Country/Region Area Sediment Load (thousand square kilometers) (million tons) Ganges-Brahmaputra South Asia 1,480 3,000 Huang He (Yellow) China 770 1,080 Amazon South America 6,150 900 Chang Jiang (Yangtze) China 1,940 478

Irrawaddy Burma 430 265 Magdalena Colombia 240 220 Mississippi United States 3,270 210 Orinoco Venezuela 990 210 SOURCES: D.E. Walling. -Rainfall, Runoff and Erosion of the Land: A Global View." in K.J. Gregory. ed.. Encl.:Ma of Physical Environment (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987); Ganges-Brahmaputra sediment load figure from Ocean Drilling Program, news release, Texas A&M University. College Station. September 4. 1987.

40 (26) State of the World 1989 deforestation and cultivation of steep Valley,theColoradoRiverbasin. slopes in recent decades has added to China's North Plain, and Soviet central millions of years of massive erosion from Asia. In the Soviet republic of Turk- natural geologic activity.11 men, the government blamed saliniza- In China, the Huang He (Yellow tion for a cotton harvest shortfall of one River), with a drainage area half that of thirdin1985.Meanwhile,another the Ganges-Brahmaputra system, carries salinit) threat has struck Soviet central more than a billion tons of sediment to Asia: because so much irrigation water is the sea each year. About half of it comes being siphoned off from the two major from the Loess Plateau, in the Huang rivers flowing into the Aral Sea, the sea's He's middle reaches, among the most surface area has shrunk by 40 percent water-eroded areas on earth. Deeply cut since 1960 and its volume has dropped gullies and denuded hillsides span 430,- by two thirds. Winds picking up dried 000 square kilometers, and erosion rates salt from the basin are now annually average some 65 tons per hectare annu- dumping some 43 million tons of it on ally. it more than 15 million hectares of crop- Today roughly one third of the land andpasture surroundingthe world's food is grown on the 18 percent shrinking sea.ie of cropland that is irrigated. Irrigated The last major cause of degradation fields typically yield two to three times deforestationcuts across all land use more than those watered only by rain, types. By accelerating soil erosion and and, because crops are protected from reducing the soil's water-absorbing ca- the ravages of drought, provide a crucial pacity, deforestation often accentuates degree of food security.is the effects of overcultivation and over- Unfortunately, poor irrigation prac- grazing. Moreover, though forest clear- tices have degraded much of this valu- ing in humid regions was not included in able cropland. Over time, seepage from UNEP's desertification assessment, in canals and overwatering of fields cause many cases it results in a net decline in the underlying water table to rise. In the the productivity of land. Most of the nu- absence of adequate drainage, water trients supporting moist tropical forests eventually enters the root zone, damag- are held in the vegetation, so forest ing crops. Farmers belonging to a large clearing removes them as well. Having irrigation project in the Indian state of lost its inherent fertility, the land cannot Madhya Pradesh have referred to their longsupportintensiveagriculture. once fertile fields as "wet deserts."14 Large areas of pasture and cropland that In dry regions, salinization usually ac- replaced tropical forest in the Brazilian companies waterlogging as moisture Amazon, for example, have been aban- near the surface evaporates, leaving be- doned. hind a layer of salt that is toxic to plants. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Orga- An aerial view of severely salinized fields nization (FAO) estimates that each year can give the impression they are covered 11.3 million hectares of tropical forest with snow. UNEP's assessment placed are lost through the combined action of the irrigated area damaged by saliniza- land clearing for crop production, fuel- tion at 40 million hectares.15 wood gathering, and cattle ranching. Re- About half of the affected area is in cent satellite data from Brazil, however, India and Pakistan, but other regions indicate that 8 million hectares of forest suffering from salinization's effects in- were cleared in 1987 in the Brazilian clude the Tigris and Euphrates basins in Amazon alonestrongly suggesting that Syria and Iraq. California's San Joaquin the widely cited FAO figure is far too

41 Halting Land Degradation (27) low. Some portion of deforested land band of seven countries in what are goes into sustainable land usessuch as known as the Sahelian and Sudanian traditional shifting cultivation, which in- zones: Burkina Faso, Chad, Gambia, cludes a fallow period that restores the Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. In land's fertilitybut the bulk of it does these countries, annual rainfall increases not. In the tropics today, deforestation from north to southfrom less than 200 usually translates into land degrada- millimeters (mm) in the northernmost tion." zone to more than 800 mm in the south- ernmostand so, consequently, does the carrying capacity of traditional farming and livestock practices. The study found that in two out of the five east- UNEARTHING west trending zones, the rural population in 1980 had already exceeded that DEGRADATION'S TRUE for which the land could sustainably pro- CAUSES vide sufficient food. Only in the south- ernmost band could the land withstand a Desertification'sdirectcausesover- substantialincrease in human num- grazing,overcultivation,salinization, bers. to and deforestationare easy to enumer- Even more important, wood resources ate, but only by grappling with the com- emerged as the limiting factor in the car- plex web of conditions leading to these rying capacity of every zone in the re- excessive pressures is there hope of gion. Indeed, the 1980 population of all stopping desertification's spread. seven countries collectively exceeded Though they vary greatly from place to the number of people the region's wood place, these underlying forces generally resources could support by 10.1 million. arerootedinpopulationdensities This finding is critical to development greater than the land can sustain and, strategies because it means that efforts more fundamentally, in social and eco- to raise the carrying capacity of the crop- nomic inequities that push people into ping and livestock systems will not in- marginal environments and vulnerable crease the total population this land can livelihoods. sustain until more trees are planted, the The number of people a given land efficiency of wood-burning is increased area can supportwhat scientists call its greatly, or some other means is found of carrying capacitydepends on climatic meeting energy needs.) 9 factors, the land's inherent productivity, Not surprisingly, this imbalance be- the products it yields, and the methods tween what the land can sustainably usedtoincreaseitsproductivity. yield and the numbers of people living Though carrying capacity is difficult to on it has led to pervasive desertification. measure accurately, few pieces of data Virtually all the rangeland and an es- are more crucial to wise development timated 82 percent of the rainfed crop- planning or tell more about the threat of land in those same seven countries is al- desertification. ready at least moderately degraded. In response to mounting concern Moreover, with a projected population about environmental deterioration in in the year 2000 of 55 milliona 77- West Africa, the World Bank set up a percent increase over the 1980 total special working group led by Jean Eu- pressures on the land will increase gene Gorse to study the problem in markedly,andlandproductivityis more detail. Gorse's group focused on a bound to fall even further.2°

44-) (a8) State of the World 1989 Similarly, in India, growth in the grow crops, but the land could not long human and animal populations, both of sustain production under the methods which have doubled since 1950, has out- they used; weeds invaded, farmers aban- stripped the sustainable production lev- doned their fields, and new lands were els of the nation's fuelwood and fodder cleared.22 resources. Estimated fuelwood and fod- The government had made no provi- der demands in the early eighties ex- sions to protect the land rights of Pala- ceeded available supplies by 70 and 25 wan's indigenous communities, and so percent, respectively. As a result, over- as migrant farmers moved in, the local grazing and deforestation have led to ex- farmerswho had developed sustaina- tensive degradation. Out of an estimated ble agricultural practiceswere forced 266 million hectares of potentially pro- to retreat to the interior hills. Their plots ductive land, 94 million (35 percent) on the steep slopes yielded only half as suffer varying degrees of degradation much as their lowland fields had. As a from water erosion, wind erosion, or sa- result, fallow periods crucial to restoring linization. Of the 75 million hectares of the land's fertility were shortened from forestland, 40 million are degraded-30 eight years to two, thereby exhausting million lacking tree cover and 10 million the soil and further depressing yields.2s having only shrubsand satellite data Similar scenarios have played out in show that the nation continues to lose numerouscountrieswherestriking forests at the rate of 1.3 million hectares inequities in land holdings compound per year.21 population pressures. About 44 percent of South African blacks arc forced to live in the "Bantu homelands," which have In the Philippines, agrarian policy an average population density of 79 peo- has promoted land resettlement ple per square kilometer compared with 15.5 people per square kilometer in the rather than redistribution. rest of the country. Much of the land set aside for the native people is not even arable, yet the majority of them are sub- Next to population pressures, perhaps sistence farmers. As John Hanks of the no other factors foster more degradation World Wide Fund for Nature says, "it is than the inequitable distribution of land hardly surprising that these areas have and the absence of secure land tenure. some of the worst cases of overgrazing, In an agrarian society, keeping a dispro- deforestation, and soil erosion in the portionate share of land in the hands of whole of the African continent."24 a few forces the poorer majority to com- The flip side of the unequal distribu- pete for the limited area left, severely tion of land is lack of secure land tenure. compromising their ability to manage Since land is often needed as collateral, sustainably what land they do have. farmers without titles to property have In the Philippines, for example, agrar- difficulty getting the loans they need to ian policy over the last several decades invest in their land's p-oductivity, and as has promoted land resettlement rather a result often abandon worn-out fields than redistribution. The elite retained for less-degraded new land. Lack of se- their holdings while landless peasants cure tenure pervades much of the Third were encouraged to move to designated World. In Thailand, for example, only resettlement areas. One such area was in about 20 percent of all private land had Palawan, the country's largest province. title deeds as of 1985, and an estimated Incoming migrants cleared forest to 500,000 farm families were landless.ss

43 Halting Land Degradation (29) In many areas, these problems are ag- rance of the land or simply a lack of con- gravated by the denial of social and eco- cern for its long-term health, such mis- nomic rightsto women. In Africa, guidedpoliciesproducethe same women grow 80 percent of the food their unfortunateresult:more degraded families eat, and, with their children's land.28 help, collect the water and wood their households need for cooking and heating. Yet despite their crucial role in the agrarian economy, women rarely have property rights or even access to their DROUGHT, DESERTIFICATION, husbands' incomes. Extension services and training programs usually are di- AND THE HYDROLOGICAL rected toward men, even though it is the CYCLE women who tillthefields.Because women lack the resources needed to im- A natural phenomenon, droughts come prove theirfarms' productivity,the and go with unpredictable regularity. landand the families living on itsuf- They are the bane of a furrier's exis- fers." tence, for without sufficient water, agri- Unless existing land distribution pat- cultural land will bear only a meager har- terns change, the number of smallholder vest at best no matter how deep and and landless families in the developing fertile the topsoil, how high-yielding the world will grow by nearly 30 percent by variety of seed, or how well-tended the the year 2000to a total of 220 million farmer's field. Human activities are now households. Without access to secure altering the hydrological cycleon glo- property, credit, and extension services, bal, regional, and local scalesin ways these rural people will have no choice that have profound implications for fu- but to overuse the land and to farm areas ture food production and the long-term that should not be cultivated." productivity of the land. Finally, national land use policies fos- There now seems little doubt that ter degradation as well. For example, the global warming from the long-hypothe- governments of Brazil and Indonesia sized "greenhouse effect" has begun. supported by World Bank loanshave (See Chapter 1.) Since a warmer atmo- sponsored resettlement programs that sphere will hold more moisture, average encourage people to clear tropical forest precipitation worldwide is expected to to create new cropland, even though that increase by 7 to 11 percent from the tem- land will only sustain cropping for a few perature rise associated with a doubling years. During the mid-seventies, U.S. of preindustrial levels of atmospheric officials encouraged the plowing up of carbon dioxide. But higher evaporation grassland to expand crop production in rates and changing circulation patterns response to higher world grain prices, mean that some regionsincluding, even though much of that land would possibly,the North American grain experience soil erosion reminiscent of beltwill experience a reduction in soil the Dust Bowl days. And numerous gov- moisture available for plant growth, if ernments and development institutions not an absolute reduction in rainfall. have supported irrigation projects with- Models suggest that severe droughts, out adequate attention to drainage, even such as occurred in the North American though the problem of salinization dates heartland in 1988. could strike more fre- back at least to ancient Mesopotamia. quently. If so, long-term average pro- Whether they reflect a profound igno- duction and reliable crop output will de-

44 (30) State of the World 1989 cline until adjustments in irrigation pat- land surface to the atmosphere through terns and cropping systemswhich will evaporation or transpiration by plants. be enormously expensive and take For evapotranspiration to occur, the soil decades to completeare put in place.29 must be sufficiently moist and vegetation For good reason, climate change now must be present to bring that moisture commands higher priority in the halls of into contact with the air. Presumably if governments, in research institutes, and evapotranspirationisanimportant ontheinternationalenvironmental source of atmospheric water vapor in a agenda. Far less attention, however, is given locale, rainfall levels could decline being devoted to a less dramatic but if it diminishes. Shukla and Mintz found equally serious change in the earth's just that, although, as with Charney's physical condition: alterations in the hy- study,theirfindingspertainedto drological cycle as a result of land degra- changes of a large magnitude and wide dation. extent.Once again,landdegrada- The Sahel had just gone through six tionby diminishingthevegetative dry years when Massachusetts Institute cover needed for evapotranspiration of Technology meteorologist J.G. Char- was linked to climatic change." ney put forth the idea in 1975 that the Meanwhile,meteorologistSharon removal of vegetation in dry regions Nicholson was analyzing rainfall data could cause rainfall to diminish because from roughly 300 sites in some 20 coun- of an increase in the albedo, the share of tries of Africa. She calculated a long- sunlight reflected back from the earth. term average from data covering 1901- Desert sands and bare rock, for example, 74, and then calculated the annual have higher albedos than grassland, percentage departures from that long- which in turn reflects more sunlight than term average for 1901-84. Between a dense forest does. According to Char- 1967 and 1984, the region experienced ney's hypothesis, less of the sun's radia- 17 consecutive years of below-normal tion is absorbed at the earth's surface as rainfall, by far the longest series of con- albedo increases, so surface tempera- secutive sub-par rains in the 84-year re- tures drop. This in turn fosters greater cord. Annual rainfall in 1983 and 1984 subsidence, or sinking motion in the at- fell more than 40 percent short of the mosphere. Since subsiding air is dry, long-term average. Interestingly, Nich- rainfall would decline. The degraded olson also analyzed northern sub-Saha- area would feed on itself, becoming ever ran rainfall levels according to three more desert-like." east-west trending zones and found that Tests of Charney's hypothesis using drought was most persistentin the climate models generally confirmed it: northern. most arid band. where the al- large increases in albedo did indeed re- bedo and low evapotranspiration feed- duce rainfall. Less clear, however, was backs would be greatest." how smaller changesinreflectivity The global circulation models used in would affect rainfall and whether the climate studies are composed of equa- patchy pattern of desertification could tions that mathematically describe the produce albedo changes sufficient to af- laws governing atmospheric motion. fect rainfall levels. Such models allow scientists to examine Another worrisome link surfaced from how changes in certain parameters the modeling studies ofJ. Shultla and Y. such as albedo. soil moisture, or the Mintz. They examined the effects on carbon dioxide concentrationaffect rainfall of changes in evapotranspira- large-scale atmospheric circulation. Un- tion, the transfer of water vapor from the fortunately,they are not sufficiently

45 Halting Land Degradation (31) fine-tuned to predict changes for specific though he cannot support this, that locations.YetasmeteorologistF. changesinthewater budget may Kenneth Hare points out, plausible hy- become noticeable when 20-30 percent potheses exist "that blame the albedo of the region has been deforested, espe- and soil moisture feedbacks for the in- cially if most of the clearing occurs in the tensificationof drought inAfrica." eastern Amazon, where rainfall recycling Whilescientistscannotyetknow begins.% whether dryness will persist, he says, Satellite data show clearly that defor- "there are now many more climatolo- estation in parts of the Amazon is ac- gists who are prepared to say that desk- celerating. In the Brazilian state of Ron- cation will continue than there were at donia, for example, the area deforested UNCOD [theU.N. Conference on has grown at an exponential rate be- Desertification] in 1977."% tween 1975 and 1985; 1 million hectares Research in the Amazon basin of Bra- were cleared just between 1984 and zil suggests that land degradation can 1985. If the exponential rate continues, alter the hydrological cycle in humid re- half of the state's tropical forests will dis- gions as well. Eneas Salati has studied appear by the early nineties, and all will the water budget of a 25-square-kilome- be gone sometime around the turn of ter basin located 60 kilometers north of the century.3 Manaus and found that streams carry As noted earlier, satellite data for the away roughly 25 percent of rainfall, whole Brazilian Amazon show that 8 mil- while transpiration by trees and plants lion hectares were cleared in 1987 alone, returns to the atmosphere nearly 50 per- 5 to 6 million more than were thought to cent and evaporation the remaining 25 have been cleared annually in the early percent. Thus, fully three quarters of the eighties g8 If clearing continues at such a rainwater falling in the basin returns as pace, Brazilians may face a multiple trag- water vapor to the atmosphere.% edy: the replacement of productive rain Salati points out that moisture-laden forest with cropland or grassland that air from the Atlantic Ocean carried west- loses its fertility and must be abandoned ward by the winds provides about half after several years, and reduced rain- the water vapor leading to rainfall in the fallnot only in the Amazon basin itself, Amazonregion.Evapotranspiration but, because the basin exports water from the forest itself supplies the other vapor to the south, possibly in the agri- half. Thus, water recycling by the Ama- cultural lands of the central plateau. zon vegetation plays a crucial role in sus- Regardless of whether desertification taining rainfall levels, a role that in- and deforestation cause rainfall to di- creasesinimportanceatgreater minish, hydrologic balance hinges on distances from the Atlantic .% how the land and its vegetative cover are Deforestation alters this hydrologic managed. When rainwater hits the land, pattern. More rainfall runs off, and less it either immediately runs off into rivers gets recycled back to the atmosphere to and streams to head back to the sea, generate new rainfall. It remains uncer- soaks into the subsurface to replenish tain what amount of forest clearing soil moisture or groundwater supplies, might initiate significant rainfall de- or is evaporated or transpired back into clines, or if the crossing of some defor- the atmosphere. Land degradation shifts estation threshold could precipitate a the proportion of rainfall following each sudden change. An estimated 12 percent of these paths. With less vegetative cover of Amazonian rain forest in Brazil al- and with soils less able to absorb water, ready has been cleared. Salati suspects, degraded land increases runoff and de-

4 6 (32) State of the World 1989 creases infiltration into the subsurface. sponses to drought and famine in parts The resulting reduction in soil moisture of the northern states of Kano and and groundwater supplies worsens the Borno. He findsthattheirsurvival effects of drought, while the increase in strategies lead inevitably to further deg- rapid runoff exacerbates flooding. radation of the land, diminishing their chances for complete recovery. When drought claims large portions of their In India, scientists now blame de- livestock and crops, for example, they forestation and desertification for may turn to cutting and selling more firewood, construction materials, and the worsening of droughts and other wood products, thereby increP ling floods. pressures on local woodlands. To _im- pensate for lower yields, they may also shorten fallow periods and cultivate ad- What appear, then, to be conse- ditional marginal land. Their reduced quences and signs of meteorological animal herds supply less manure, lead- droughtwithered crops, falling ing to a drop in the fertility of their groundwater levels, and dry stream fields." bedscan actually be caused as much or When drought ends, the villagers thus more by land degradation. Perhaps no begin their recovery from a severely where has this case been made more compromised position: more highly de- convincingly than in India, where a graded fields and woodlands, not to growing number of scientists now blame mention greater poverty. As Monimore deforestation and desertification for the says, "By a set of actionsrational in worsening of droughts andfloods. themselves--the overall productivity of Writes Jayanta Bandyopadhyay of the the system deteriorates in a series of ir- Research Foundation for Science, Tech- reversible steps linked with the occur- nology and Natural Resource Policy in rence of droughts. It is only necessary Dehra Dun, "With an amazing rapidity for us to add population growthas an acute scarcity of water has grabbed the independent variableto complete this centre stage of India's national life .... scenario of a structurally unstable sys- State after state is trapped into an irre- tem."" versible and worsening crisis of drought, Drought and degradation reinforce desertification and consequent water each other by preventing land from scarcity, threatening plant, animal and recovering from stress. Whereas healthy human life."39 land will bounce back to its former pro- Water shortages plagued some 17,000 ductivity after a drought, degraded and villages in the state of Uttar Pradesh in abused land frequently will not. For the sixties; by 1985. that figure had risen much of the Third World, especially nearly fourfold, to 70,000. Similarly, in parts of Africa and India, a return to Madya Pradesh, more than 36,400 vil- "normal" rainfall levels may not mean a lages lacked sufficient water in 1980; in return to past levels of productivity. And 1985, the number totaled more than 64,- if land degradation actually causes rain- 500. And in Gujarat, the number of vil- fall to diminish, a cycle could be set in lages short of water tripled between motion that leads to long-term economic 1979 and 1986, from roughly 3,840 to and environmental declineand to even 12,250.0 greater hunger and human suffering Michael Mortimore of Bayero Univer than witnessed in Africa and India dur- sity in Nigeria has studied villagers' re- ing the eighties.

4 7 Halting Land Degradation (33) REGAINING LAND most Third World regions threatened with desertification, the struggle to keep PRODUCTIVITY food production increasing apace with A search for solutions to halting desert- population growth and the swelling ification's spread turns up no quick fixes. numbers of land-hungry peasants makes With the causes tied to varied mixes of shifting a large portion of cropland out of production almost unthinkable. physical, social, and economic condi- In a few pockets of the developing tions, the remedies must be diverse and world, however, land is being restored in tailored to the problems and needs of ways that both conserve the resource particular locales. But here and there base and improve people's living stan- in villages. grassroots organizations, dards. These efforts take various forms, research institutes, experiment stations, but center around measures that con- development agencies. and government centrate production on the most fertile, bureaustechnologiesandpolicies least erodible land. that stabilize soils on geared to restoring the land are being sloping and other marginal land, and devised. tried. and shown to have prom- that reduce rural people's vulnerability ise. to crop failure, often by diversifying in- Since much degradation stems from come-generating options at the village the extension of cropping or grazing level. onto marginal lands that cannot sustain One such effortis under way in those activities, changes in the way land China's Loess Plateau, the highly eroded is used and managed lie at the heart of area spanning some 60 million hea ares rehabilitation efforts. In some cases, de- around the middle reaches of the Huang grading lands can simply be removed He. Because of the constant threat that from production and allowed I o recover. the silt-laden river will flood, the central The U.S. government has done just this government has supported efforts to in setting up a Conservation Reserve control erosion on the plateau for sev- and calling for 16 million hectares (40 eral decades. Planting of trees and grass million acres) of highly erodible crop- and the construction of terraces on slop- land to be planted in grass or trees by ing land have helped stabilize soils on 1990. Farmers get compensation from some 10 million hectares, nearly one the government for their lost produc- quarter of the area suffering from ero- tion, and have already placed an es- sion.44 timated 12 million hectares into the re- During the past decade, the Chinese serve under 10-year contracts.(See government's erosion control strategy Chapter 3.) Three fourths of the way to has turned to sustainable land use sys- its 1990 goal, the program has slashed tems that improve the livelihoods of the the national annual erosion rate by more region's rural inhabitants. In 1979, with than 800 million tonsnearly one third support from the United Nations Devel- of the excessive soil losses from U.S. opment Programme, an experiment sta- cropland before the program began.43 tion was established in Mizhi County in A creative initiative, the Conservation northern Shaanxi Province. a drought- Reserve works in large pan because a prone, highly gullied area, where more price-depressing surplus of crops made than 60 percent of the land slopes at an- the removal of land from production at- gles of 25 degrees or greater. Scientists tractive to farmers and the government developed a plan aimed at intensifying alike. Removing the most erodible. mar- crop production on a smaller cropland ginal land only makes good sense. But in area, planting much of the sloping land (34) State of the World 1989 in trees or grass, and developing animal centan amazing 134-percent gain in husbandry as an added source of income productivity. (See Table 2-4.) With the for the villagers.4S added value from tree products and ani- In 1984, armed with promising results mal husbandry, per capita income in the from pilot experiments, the government village has more than doubled.47 sought assistance from FAO's World Average costs of these efforts, includ- Food Programme (WFP) to replicate the ing the value of grain supplied by WFP, strategy in a portion of Mizhi County en- total about $162 per hectare if the villag- compassing 105,000 people and 241 vil- ers' labor is valued monetarily, $54 per lages. WFP provides food as an incentive hectare if it is not. While this sum is large for farmers to do the work of land recla- relative to per capita income, the invest- mation and as compensation for the ment is modest compared with many cropland converted to trees or grass.46 other development projects, such as es- Quanjiagou, one of the villages in the tablishing fuelwood plantations or ex- project, gives a visitor who has traversed panding irrigation, which often cost up- hundreds of kilometers of the degraded wards of $1,000 per hectare.44 Loess Plateau an overwhelming sense of In the drought-plagued, degraded a land transformed. Earthen dams built highlands of Ethiopia, similar food-for- across the deep gullies have captured work projects are under way in some 44 topsoil eroding off'the hillsides, creating catchments. Like efforts on the Loess flat, fertile fields where farmers have Plateau, they are aimed at integrating planted corn, potatoes, and other v lige- conservation and development to both tables. Terraces allow cropping with rehabilitate the land and boost crop pro- minimal erosion on a portion of the duction. A key feature of the Ethiopian slopes, while cash crop trees, such as efforts is simple structures called bunds, apple, and a leguminous shrub good for walls of rock or earth constructed across fuel and fodder stabilize the remaining hillsides to catch soil washing down the sloping land. Between 1979 and 1986, slope. Soil builds up behind the bund, the area planted in crops was halved, but forming a terrace that both diminishes total crop production increased 17 per- erosion and enhances water infiltration. Table 24. China: Effects of Land Rehabilitation Strategy in Quanjiagou, Mizhi County, 1979-86

Effects 1979 1986 Change Land Use (hectares) (percent) Cropland 234 117 50 Trees 60 111 + 85 Pasture 16 83 +419

(tons) (percent) Crop Production 250 293 + 17

(yuanI) (percent) Per Capita Income 127 313 +146 lAs of midNovember 1988, 1 yuan exchanged for U.S. 27o. SOURCE:Shaanxi Control Institute of the Loess Plateau. "Brief Introduction on the Comprehensive Control in Qpanjiagou Experimental Watershed," unpublished paper. Shaanxi Province. China. August 1987.

o ... Halting Land Degradation Between 1976 and 1985, through pro- apply to their fields at the needed rates. jects sponsored by the United Nations One strategy that remedies this is alley and various foreign aid agencies, Ethi- croppingan agroforestry design in opian farmers built 600,000 kilometers which food crops are planted in alleys of bunds and about 470,000 kilometers between hedgerows of trees or shrubs. of terraces for reforestation of steep The hedgerow trimmings provide a slopes. Though impressive, these efforts good mulch for the crop, besides help- are only a start: just 6 percent of the ing meet other needs such as fodder for threatened highlands are now pro- animals and fuelwood for heating and tected.45 cooking. Planting the hedges along the No matter how creative a strategy, contours of sloping land reduces rainfall land rehabilitation hinges on a set of ef- runoff and soil erosion. Even though the fective technologies that will be adopted. hedgerows take up land, crop yields per By working in partnership with villagers, hectare suffer little if at all, and some- scientistsand developmentworkers times even increase.52 come to know their needs, priorities, and Nitrogen-fixing trees, including some cultural practices, and can promote ap- species of acacia, gliricidia, and leuca- propriate technologies. Soilscientist ena, are especially useful for agrofores- Rattan Lal makes the basic but crucial try since they help improve soil fertility observation that "the subsistence farmer and maintain productivity. Sudanese who risks famine would consider a suc- farmers who leave nativeAcacia senegal cessful technology to be the one that trees on their cropland can grow millet produces some yield in the worst year continuously for 15-20 years, compared rather than the one that produces a high with 3-5 years if they remove the trees. yield in the best."5° Similarly, research in Senegal has shown Simple techniques of soil and water that an integrated crop - livestock -tree conservation that add nutrients and system, usingAcacia albida,could sus- moisture to the land form the core of tainably support several times more peo- promising rehabilitation efforts. Work at ple per hectare than the average for the the International Institute of Tropical region. This acacia drops its leaves dur- AgricultureinIbadan,Nigeria,has ing the rainy season, adding nitrogen shown, for example, that applying a and organic matter to the soil; in the dry mulch of crop residues at rates of six season, it produces pods good for fod- tons per hectare can provide nearly com- der and leaves that offer shade to live- plete erosion control on slopes of up to stock whose dung, in turn, enhances soil 15 percent, allowing sustainable crop- fertility.55 ping of such land. The mulch protects Another promising prospect for fight- the soil from the impact of raindrops, ing land degradation is a densely tufted, increases rainfall infiltration, conserves deep-rooted plant called vetiver grass. soil moisture, and improves soil struc- Native to India and known there askhus, ture, all helping to boost yields. In field vetiver grass offers a simple, inexpensive trials, a mulch of six tons per hectare has alternative to the construction of bunds led to yield increases over non mulched and earthen walls to slow sheet erosion plots of 83 percent for cow peas, 73 per- on sloping cropland. It can be estab- cent for cassava, 33 percent for soy- lished for between I and 10 percent of beans, and 23 percent for maize.51 the cost of these other measures. and it Many subsistence farmers are aware of requires no maintenance. Vetiver seems the benefits of mulching, but usually do to survive in all climates, and has done not have sufficient plant residues to well even during the last four years of

50 (36) State of the World 1989 drought in India. Since the most com- use it, and in many cases this right-of- monly used species (Vetiveria zizanioides) useisinheritable. In Mizhi County, propogates only by root division, there each household's allocation of cropland is no danger of it spreading out of con- remains valid for 15 years. Tenure for trol." pasture and wooded land ranges from 30 to 50 years, and can often be passed on to children." Vetiver grass forms a vegetative In Ethiopia, on the other hand, the barrier that slows runoff, allowing government owns the land and gives Peasant Associations the responsibility rainfall to spread out and seep into of allocating it to farm families for their the field. use. Since the Peasant Associations can redistribute the land, farmers using any given plot have no guarantee that they When planted to form continuous will benefit from any long-term improve- hedges along the contours of a hillside, ments they make. As in many countries. vetiver grass forms a vegetative barrier a long-standing policy of keeping food that slows runoff, allowing rainfall to prices low to appease urban dwellers has spread out and seep into the field, and further discouraged farmers from in- traps sediment behind it, forming a nat- vesting in land productivity. A promis- ural terrace. Farmers need only give up ing step was taken in mid-1988, how- a 50-centimeter strip of their cropland ever, when plans were announced to for each. contour hedge of vetiver, and begin raising prices in certain regions the resulting soil and water conservation for the portion of crops that farmers gains far outweigh the small amount of must sell to the governments' land lost from production. Yields typi- Unfortunately, successes with range- cally increase at least 50 percent over land rehabilitation form a rather short those from traditional cultivation meth- and unconvincing list. Restoring the na- ods." turallyfluctuatingrange resource Land restoration also requires incen- given periodic drought, shifting num- tives that motivate rural people to build bers of range animals, and the fact that terraces, plant trees, or do whatever mobility is central to nomadic pastoral- needs to be done andequally impor- ists' survivalpresents formidable chat- tantto maintain what they put in place. lenges. Yet a few promising efforts dot Without such incentives, governments the landscape. In northern Nigeria, re- and aid organizations face the prospect searchers at the International Livestock of footing the bill for land rehabilitation Center for Africa (ILCA) are experi- efforts everywhere they are needed menting with "fodder banks," reserves clearly, an impossible task. of nitrogen-fixing crops that can provide Recent economic reforms in China, nutritious feed for livestock during the for example, give farmers the security dry season. Other efforts focus on redis- in land tenure and fair prices needed to tributing livestock to even out pressures encourage improvements in the land. on the range. For example, ILCA is help- Underthe"responsibilitysystem," ing Ethiopian pastoralists to dig more farmers can sell on the free market ponds thatretain water for several whatever they produce above their months into the dry season, thereby quota to the state. Although the gov- hoping to reduce localized overgraz- ernment still owns the land, families ing." can enter into long-term contracts to Perhaps the clearest success in range-

51 Halting Land Degradation (37) land restoration springs from the revival JOINING THE BATTLE of the ancient "Hema" system of cooperative management in Syria. Coopera- Why, more than a decade after a global tives are established that each have sole goal was set to stop desertification by the grazing rights to a demarcated area of year 2000, are we losing more trees, range. Families in the cooperative are more topsoil, and more grazing land then granted a license to graze a certain than ever before? The easy answers are number of sheep within that area. By re- that governments fail to grasp the sever- ducing overgrazing, the system has en- ity of the threat, lack the political will to abled the revegetation of 7 million hec- give it priority, and devote insufficient tares of rangeland.59 financial resources to combat it. But a Much less irrigated cropland than more fundamental reason may lie in the rainfed land suffers from degradation, very nature of "desertification control" but the cost of this degradation is great, itself. It crosses all traditional discipli- both because of irrigated land's high nary and bureaucratic boundaries, in- production potential and because of the cluding agriculture, forestry, pastoral- large investments that have gone into it. ism, and water management. Lasting An expensive and daunting task, reha- solutions are rooted as much in social bilitation of salinized land has not re- and economic reforms as in effective ceived the attention it deserves. Paki- technologies. Telescoping desertifica- stan, among the countries most affected, tion control into a single program or has perhaps tried hardest to tackle it, but plan of action defies the reality that it is has achieved only mixed results. inseparable from the broader notion of In 1960 the government committed it- sustainable development. self to draining salt-affected lands by in- All the elements needed to reverse stalling vertical tube wells, Two decades land degradation exist, but they have not and over 12.000 tube wells later, the been joined effectively in the battle or area reclaimed still fell far short of the given the resources needed to mount an target. Although the technology had adequate fight. in the United Nations proved effective, the public programs Environment Programme and its Execu- had actually reclaimed less land than the tive Director, Mostafa Tolba, desertifi- combined effects of private tube wells cation control has a strategic headquar- and an improved water supply. The ters and a strong, committed leader. But Sixth Five Year Plan, 1983 to 1988, al- the amount of funding mobilized for located an astonishing 43 percent of the desertificationcontrol over thelast total water budget to drainage activities, decade has fallen far short of needs. Har- and established credits and subsidies to old Dregne estimates that an average of further encourage private development $170 million per year was spent by of tube wells so donor agencies on field-level desertifi- In Egypt, a drainage system covering cation control between 1978 and 1983, only a small portion of the Nile Delta compared with an estimated $1.8 billion Valley has been estimated to cost $1 bil- of annual expenditures needed to com- lion. Such high sums partly explain why bat desertification adequately. UNEP governments tend to ignore the prob- places investment needs at $4.5 billion lem, and why preventing salinization in per year to bring desertification under the first placeby increasing irrigation control within 20 years. Several coun- efficiency and providing for adequate tries have developed the national plans drainage when irrigation systems are of action called for by the 1977 Nairobi builtis crucia1.61 conference, but only threeBurkina

132 (38) Slate of the World 1989 Faso, Mali, and Tunisiahave appar- The greatest hope of reversing land ently drummed up sufficient support to degradation lies in marrying stepped-up begin successfully implementing them. internationalsupportandtechnical The United Nations Sudano-Sahelian guidance with the commitment and ex- Office intends to push implementation perience of organizations operating at of four existing plans before the end of the local level. Although that presents an 1989 in this northern part of Africa.62 onerous set of institutional challenges, While this top-down approach pro- there are some promising signs. ceeds at a glacial pace with few measur- Recognizing that community-based able gains, efforts at the village level initiatives have higher success rates and have produced numerous, albeit small more lasting impacts than "top-down" successes. (See also Chapter 9., On the projects, UNEP is strengthening its co- island of Cebu in the Philippines, for ex- operation with nongovernmental orga- ample, local farmers have been working nizations (NGOs). The agency currently with U.S.-based World Neighbors since supportsseveralgrassrootsprojects 1982 to stem soil erosion on the steep throughtheNairobi-basedAfrican slopes they cultivate. Initially, the World NGOs Environmental Network, and has Neighbors project director led the semi- also helped launch the Deforestation nars on contouring and other tech- and Desertification Control NGO Net- niques; later, villagers familiar with the work in the Asia-Pacific region. A similar methods took over the presentations. network is being established for Latin Two years into the project, 74 farmers America. In addition, UNEP has pro- were participating and 25 kilometers of vided $35,000 to bolster tree planting erosion control structures had been efforts in southern India through the built. Three new sites were added by the Millions of Trees Club, a grassroots end of 1987, and project workers now group that has set up people's nurseries expect 750 farmers to adopt the conser- and training centers for reforestation. vation techniques.6s During the two years of UNEP's support, the number of nurseries grew from 20 to 45, and from them more than 2 million Efforts at the village level have pro- trees and shrubs were planted.65 duced numerous, albeit small suc- Another promising sign emerged in December 1985, when representatives cesses. from 41 African governments, regional organizations, and NGOs gathered in Cairo for the first African Ministerial In western Kenya, 540 different local Conference on the Environment. The organizationsmostly women's groups conference's prime objective was devel- and primary schoolsare working with oping a cooperative program aimed at the U.S.-based organization CARE to arresting environmental degradation on promote reforestation. CARE provides the continent and helping Africans the materials needed to establish nurser- achieve food and energy self-sufficiency. ies, as well as training and extension ser- Toward that end, a Cairo Plan was set vices, but local people do the planting. forth that called for two sets of pilot pro- Each group plants between 5,000 and jects.66 10,000 seedlings annually, collectively The first involves selecting three vil- amounting to nearly a third of the plant- lages in different ecological zones in ingsthe government estimatesare each of 50 African countries and imple- needed.64 menting ecologically based develop-

53 Halting Land Degradation (39) ment schemes in each. The second only conserving soils and boosting crop focuses on rehabilitating rangelands, yields, but helping meet their needs for and calls for one pilot project in each of fuel and fodder. While initially the pro- 30 countries designed to produce fodder ject paid farmers to plant and care for from small plots irrigated by animal- the seedlings, the benefits of agrofores- powered water pumps. The goal is to try soon rendered the payments un- produce enough fodder to carry village necessary. Indeed, farmers' demand for herds through the dry season so that de- seedlings currently exceeds what the graded rangelands have a chance to re- nurseries can provide. Project officials cover. It is hoped that through these 180 hope that, having tapped into and demonstration projects, which will in- strengthened existing networks at the volve working closely with NGOs and local level, the reforestation effort will villagers,successfulandreplicable continue long after the project money is strategies will emerge.67 spent." Funding for the Cairo Plan is to come Building institutional bridges between from African governments themselves as researchorganizationsand. farmers' well as from international donor agen- fields is also crucial in the battle against cies. UNEP, which is helping coordinate land degradation. Technologies per- the effort, is currently working to round fected on experimental research plots up support. So far, about 5 projects have often need adapting to suit the needs received funding, and up to 20 others and conditions of small farmers. The are in the pipeline." TropicalAgriculturalResearchand Bilateral donor agencies also have an Training Center (CATIE, from the important role to play in stimulating ac- Spanish), located in Turrialba, Costa tion at the local level. By funneling more Rica, serves just such a role for its six money through NGOs rather than na- Central American and Caribbean mem- tional government agencies, they can bers: Costa Rica. the Dominican Repub- often ensure more bang for the develop- lic, Guatemala, Honduras. Nicaragua, ment buck. The U.S. Agency for Interna- and Panama' tional Development (AID), for example, CATIE's activities focus on develop- sponsors a $27-million Agroforestry ing integrated crop, livestock, and forest Outreach Project in Haiti, which is ad- production systems suited to subsistence ministered through three private volun- farming in the tropics. David Joslyn of tary organizations. Operation Double AID, which provides 65 percent of Harvest produces and distributes seed- CATIE's $13-million annual budget, lings and manages demonstration tree knows of no other institution like it: "In farms. CARE providesagroforestry both training and research, the organiza- training and extension services to farm- tion accomplishes what the small coun- ers in the severely degraded northwest- tries of Central America could never ac- ern region. And the Pan American De- complish alone."72 velopment Foundation works with more Without adequate incentives for small than120 Haitian voluntary groups, farmers to invest in their land, the tech- many of them church-related, by train- nologies developed at research institutes ing "promoters" to help farmers plant and the landusestrategiestested and care for trees on their farms and to through aid projects will not spread report back on which strategies are prov- widely enough to make more than a dent ing successful.69 in desertification. As noted earlier, re- So far, some 130,000 farmers have forming land ownership and tenure poli- planted more than 35 million trees, not cies and providing access to credit for (40) State of the World 1989 smallholders is vital to the reversal of technologies having captured the re- landdegradation.Specialemphasis search limelight over the last several needs to be placed on the status of decades, efforts timprove the produc- womenespecially in Africa, where the tivity of subsistence farming are just be- disparity between the work women do ginning to get the attention they de- and the rights they have is greatest. serve.Researchoncowpeas.foi Of the multilateral development orga- example, an important leguminous crop nizations, the International Fund for Ag- in Africa, has led to varieties harvesta- ricultural Development (WAD) is heads ble in 50-60 days instead of 90-100. above the others in incorporating these That paves the way for double- or even needs into its projects more thoroughly. triple-cropping in some regions, which This decade-old U.N. agency has now would reduce pressures to extend culti- carried out about 190 projects, and in vationtomarginallands. A new the words of WAD president Idriss drought-tolerant sorghum has yielded Jazairy, they are "people-oriented" and double or triple that of traditional vari- built upon the philosophy that develop- eties in the Sudan. By boosting per-hec- ment involves the "liberation of [peo- tareproduction,itsspread among ple's] creative potential."76 smallholders also would allow some An IFAD project in Kenya, for in- erodible lands that would otherwise be stance, operates through women's sav- cultivated to be planted in soil-stabiliz- ings clubs and other community groups ing tree or fodder crops.75 to enhance women's access to credit, Finally, with much degradation stem- farm supplies, and extension services. ming from excessive human pressures Another, in The Gambia, works to upon the land, reversing it will require a hold women's traditionalcultivation dramatic slowing of population growth. rights under a new land distribution If current growth rates persist, Africa's scheme and establishes day-care centers worn-out lands will need to support an for children of women whose workloads additional 263 million people by the have increased with the introduction of year 2000, roughly equivalent to adding double-cropping. While the provision of two more Nigerias. India will grow by child-careservicesmayseemfar nearly 200 million people, or 24 percent, removed from desertification control, and the Philippineswith the fastest freeing women to do the work of raising growth rate in Southeast Asiaby more land productivity could in fact be an es- than a third. No matter how much fund- sential first step.74 ing comes forth, or how fast effective Expanded research into crop varieties technologies spread, or how diligently and production systems appropriate for governments implement land reforms, a the lands and people at risk from deser- lasting victory over land degradation will tification is also crucial. With the high. remain out of reach until population yielding, Green Revolution package of pressures ease.76

E.;I ::::V 3 Reexamining the World Food Prospect Lester R. Brown

At the start of the 1987 hat-vest, world In 1988, drought-reduced hat-vests in grain stocks totaled a record 459 million the United States, Canada, and China re- tons, enough to feed the world for 101 duced world grain output a further 76 days. When the 1989 harvest begins, the million tons.2 "carryover" stocks 0.1 likely drop to 54 The drought that afflicted the United days of consumption, lower even than States in 1988 is by many criteria the the 57 days at the beginning of 1973, most severe on recordso severe that when grain prices doubled. During a domestic grain production has fallen brief two years, world reserves of below consumption for perhaps the first grainwhich account for half of all time ever. North America, which sup- human caloric intake when consumed di- plies most of the world's wheat and feed- rectly and part of the remainder in the grain exports, is able to maintain exports form of meat, milk, cheese, butter, and during the 1988/89 trade year only by eggswill have plummeted from the selling its carryover stocks. A severe drought in 1989 will reduce exports to a highest level ever to the lowest since the trickle, creating a world food emer- years immediatelyfollowing World gency.3 War ILI The central question raised by this Stocks have declined precipitously be- overnight depletion of world grain re- cause food demand has continued its serves is, What are the odds that North population-driven rise while production America will experience another severe has fallen at a record rate. In 1987, a drought in 1989? Are the three drought- monsoon failure in India contributed to reduced harvests of 1980, 1983, and an 85-million-ton drop in world output. 1988 simply reruns of the types of An expanded version of this chapter appeared as droughts that occurrcd in the thirties, or Worldwatch Paper 85, The Changing World Food do they foreshadow an agricultural fu- Prospect: The Nineties and Beyond. ture in a world where summers in mid-

.)r0n (42) Stale of the World 1989 continental North America will be far panment of Agriculture (USDA)is hotter? No one knows. taking 11 percent of the country's crop- Drought can be caused by below-nor- land out of production, converting it to mal rainfall, by above-normal tempera- grassland or woodland, because it is too tures (which increase evaporation), or erodible to sustain continuous cropping. both, as was the case in 1988. Record- Irrigated area has shrunk 7 percent since high temperatures in key U.S. agricul- 1978. Even so, water tables are still fall- tural areas during the summer of 1988 ing by six inches to four feet per year contributed to the reduced harvest. This beneath one fourth of U.S. irrigated unprecedented summer cannot be con- cropland, tggesting that further shrink- clusively linked to the long-projected age is in prospect.6 global warming, but both the reduced If the estimated 57 million tons of U.S. rainfall and the higher temperatures in grain outputroughly one sixth of the the North American agricultural heart- totalproduced with this unsustainable landareconsistentwithprojected use of soil and water is subtracted from changes in climate associated with the world output, the surpluses of the eight- buildup of greenhouse gases. Many ies disappear. More seriously, subtract- meteorologists believe it is likely that the ing unsustainable output for the United warmingis now under way.If so, States alone from world food production droughts and heat waves will occur with puts sustainable world production below increasing frequency, making it more consumption.? difficult to rebuild stocks once they are Depressed farm prices during the depleted. (See Chapter I.)4 eighties have clearly slowed investment in agriculture, but other forces are shaping the world food prospect. For in- The future of agriculture is being stance, the backlog of unused agricul- shaped increasingly by environ- tural technologies that farmers can draw upon in some countries is dwindling, mental trends and resource con- making it more difficult for them to straints. maintain the rapid output growth of recent decades. But beyond these economic and tech- In addition to the drought-reduced nological Influences, the future of agri- harvests, the growth of world food pro- culture is being shaped increasingly by duction appears to be losing momen- environmental trends and resource con- tum. Between 1950 and 1984, world straints. Prominent among these are the grain output climbed from 624 million continual loss of topsoil from croplands, tons to 1,645 million tons, a prodigious the conversion of cropland to nonfarm 2.6-fold gain that raised per capita grain uses, the waterlogging and salting of irri- production by 40 percent. Since then, gation systems, falling water tables, the output per person has declined each diversion of irrigation water to nonfarm year. falling 14 percent over the last four uses, and now the possible adverse ef- years. In pan, this fall measures the un- fects of climate change. sustainable use of soil and water.5 In addition, demographic trends are No one knows what share of world making it ever more difficult to achieve a food output is unsustainable, but some satisfactory balance between food and idea of its scale can be gleaned by look- people. The annual addition to world ing at U.S. agriculture. Under the Con- population, estimated at 86 million in servation Reserve Program, the U.S. De- 1988, is projected to exceed 90 million Reexamining the World Food Prospect (43) in the early nineties. By the end of the world grain output. exacerbated by the decade, there will be nearly a billion monsoon failure in India in 1987, the more people to feed. In the two regions North American and Chinese droughts with the fastest populationgrowth, in 1988, and large areas of cropland Africa and Latin America, per capita idled under U.S. commodity supply grain production is falling. if action is management programs in both years, not taken soon to reverse these declines, has depressed the world grain harvest by hunger and malnutrition will spread, nearly I0 percent in two years. Record and eventually food consumption for back-to-back declines have interrupted more people will fall below the survival nearly four decades of steady growth in level.° world grain output, one of the most predictable of global economic trends since World War II. During the mid-eighties, grain production plateaued in some of the world's PRODUCTION TRENDS most populouscountries,including India, Indonesia, Mexico, and China. The enormous growth in world grain India more than tripled its wheat harvest output between 1950 and 1984 has no between 1965, when the Green Revolu- precedent. Never before had the world tion was launched, and 1983, sharply witnessed such an increase in food pro- boosting total grain output. Since then, duction within one generation. But can grain production has not increased there this rapid growth be restored and sus- at alio tained indefinitely? Indonesia doubled its grain harvest, The last four years may help answer consisting almost entirely of rice, be- these questions. After increasing only tween 1970 and 1984. but output has slightly in 1985 and 1986, global grain since leveled off. Indonesia's resettle- production fell sharply in 1987 and ment program, designed to alleviate again in1988. (See Figure 3-1.) As land hunger by moving people from noted earlier, in per capita terms it has densely populated Java to the outer is- fallen each year since 1984.9 lands, has been widely judged a failure The overall loss of momentum in and has nearly halted. In contrast to Java's rich soils, those of the outer is- Million lands typically deteriorate, and rather lbas quickly, once the dense rain forest is 2.000 cleared for farming.n Mexico, where the Green Revolution 1.600 originated, boosted its grain harvest fourfold between 1950 and 1984. There, 1.200 - too, production has stagnated, largely because the area in grain has declined one tenth during the eighties. This shrinkage, as degraded cropland is abandoned and as some areas are converted Sources: US. Deptof to nonfarm uses, is offsetting the gains in Agrieuhumnbrldwatch yield per hectare.12

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 China may illustrate the leveling off Elms 3-1. Wodd Gado Producdoo, most dramatically. The economic re- Wt forms that quickly led to exploitation of (44) State of the World 1989 a large backlog of unused technologies houses, access roads. and, as affluence boosted grain production by nearly half rises, new housing. In each of these East between 1976 and 1984, an impressive Asian countries, the decline in grain area achievement by any standard. Since was followed in a matter of years by a then, China's output has actually fallen decline in grain production. slightly. Beijing's official goal early in For densely populated countries that 1988 was to regain the record level of are industrializing rapidly, the compara- 1984. Notwithstanding an increase in tive advantage lies in industry, not in ag- grain procurement prices for the 1988 riculture. As a result, these three coun- crop, China's efforts to regain the 1984 tries have greatly increased their grain harvest level failed for the fourth consec- imports over the last decade or twoan utive year.is obviously sensible policy. Although all The food prospect for China is of spe- three :Ire largely self-sufficient in rice, cial concern, not merely because it is the they import most of their wheat and world's largest consumer, but because nearly all of their feedgrains. In 1987, its planners may be greatly overestimat- imports accounted for 71 percent of ing future gains in production. They Japan's grain consumption, 72 percent project a 130-million-ton increase in of Taiwan's, and 59 percent of South grain production by the end of the cen- Korea's.16 tury, or roughly a third, but is this really feasible? The recent experience of three other countries in East Asia with similar Eastern Europe and the Soviet population/land ratios, and that have Union are slowly reducing their de- undergone rapid industrial development comparable to that now under way pendence on outside grain. in China, calls this goal into question.I4 In Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. grain production has been declining for The experience of these three coun- many years. In each of the three, the his- tries may explain why China is now hav- torical peak came during the 11-year ing such difficulty boosting grain pro- span between 1967 and 1978. From duction. Like its neighbors, China is their respective peaks, production has densely populated and has a small area declined more than one fourth in Japan, of cropland per person, a rapid rate of by one fifth in Taiwan, and by one sixth industrial development, and a nonfarm in South Korea." sector that is pulling both labor and land The reasons for these common trends away from agriculture. In addition, in are clear. With a small area of cropland China's water-scarce north, the nonfarm per person, it becomes difficult to boost sector is diverting water from irriga- output per worker in agriculture as fast tion.17 as in industry. The rapid rise in labor China's grain area peaked in 1976, productivity and income in the industrial just 12 years before grain production did setter pulls workers out of agriculture. the same. With grain yield per hectare As a result, the area multiple-cropped already four fifths of that in Japan, growing more than one crop per year in achieving the yield increases that are one fieldbegins to decline. In addition needed to reach the one-third increase to siphoning labor out of agriculture, the planned by the year 2000 will not be nonfarm sector also draws land away easy.18 from farmers. Record rates of industrial- In 1988, China imported 5 percent of ization lead to rapid growth in land used its grain, roughly 15 million tons. If the for the construction of factories, ware- nation's efforts to expand output are no Reexamining the World Food Prospect (45) more successful than those of its three beset by environmental deterioration smaller neighbors, it might be importing and a record population increase, has a steadily growing share of its food dur- become heavily dependent on imported ing the nineties. If China were to import grain as it tries to offset a two-decade 15 percent of its needs by 1995, the decline in per capita production. The amount would total 45 million tons northerntierofcountriesEgypt, more than the 28 million tons now Libya, Tunisia, Algeria. and Morocco bought by Japan and the 24 million tons now bring in half the grain they con- by the Soviet Union, the world's leading sume. Even with continental imports of grain importers.' an estimated 28 million tons in 1988, Perhaps the best indicator of long- millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa term shifts in food production relative to were left hungry and malnourished, demand can be seen in the changing some on the verge of starvation.21 geographic pattern of world grain trade. The combination of a small and (See Table 3-1.) In 1950, most of the shrinking cropland area per person and grain in international trade flowed from rising prosperity in many countries has North America to grain-deficit Western made Asia the leading food-importing Europe. The rest of the world was essen- region. Its purchases surpassed those of tially self-sufficient. That has changed Europe during the mid-sixties, and all dramatically in recent decades. Since indications are that they will continue to mid-century, North America has in- rise during the nineties and beyond. creased its grain exports more than five- Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. fold, from 23 million to 119 million tons, which were importing at record levels in emerging as the world's breadbasket. the late seventies and early eighties, are Latin America became a grain-deficit slowly reducing their dependence on region in the seventies, with net imports outside grain. Whether they reach self- of roughly 11 million tons by 1988. De- sufficiency will depend heavily on the spite a vast land area. Brazil now regu- success of Soviet agricultural reforms. larly imports both wheat and feedgrains. Western Europe is perhaps the most These imports plus those of Mexico, interesting regional story. In the early with its growing food deficit, and of sev- eighties, it ended two centuries of de- eral smaller countries more than offset pendence on imported grain, a depen- exports from Argentina.20 dence that began with the industrial rev- Africa, a largely agrarian continent olution and the exchange of manu- Table 3-1. The Changing Pattern ofWorldGrainTrade, 1950-881

Region 1950 1960 1970 1980 19882 (million metric tons) North America +23 +39 +56 +131 +119 Latin America + 1 0 +4 10 11 Western Europe 22 25 30 16 +22 E. Eur. and Soviet Union 0 0 0 46 27 Africa 0 2 5 15 28 Asia 6 17 37 63 89 Australiaand New Zeal. +3 +6 +12 +19 +14 1Plus sign indicates net exports; minus sign. net imports.2Preliminary. SOURCES:U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook (Rome: various years); U.S. Depart- ment or Agriculture. Foreign Agricultural Service. World Rice Reference Tables and World Wheal and Coarse Grains Reference Tables(unpublished printouts) (Washington. D.C.: June 1988).

.0 (46) State of the World 1989 Million factured goods for food and raw materi- Hectares als with the rest of the world. Steadily 800 advancing farm technologies, farm support prices well above the world market level, and a population growth rate that 700 is approaching zero have combined to push the region's net exports above those of Australia. Although West Euro- pean farmers could face some reductions in support prices as the costs of maintaining current levels soar, they still may be able to sell more grain abroad Source. US. Dept. than Australia, which with its semiarid Agriculture climate will find it difficult to increase exports substantially. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Until recently, expanding food pro- Byre 3-2. WorldHarvested Area of Grain, duction was largely an economic con- 19564111 cern. a matter of formulating agricultural price policies that would stimulate Figure 3-2.) Since then, it has fallen investment. Today, rises in commodity some 7 percent. That the world's crop- support prices in some countries may land area would expand when the world simply result in the plowing of highly demand for food was growing rapidly is erodible land or the installation of more not surprising. What is surprisingand irrigation pumps where water tables are worrying--is the recent decline. This is already falling. Given the soil and water due partlyto the abandonment of constraints now facing farmers, the eroded land, as in the Soviet Union; slower growth in food output of recent partly to the systematic retirement of years is not surprising. such land under conservation programs, as in the United States; and partly to growing competitionfrom nonfarm sources, a trend most evident in densely populated Asia As THE CROPLAND BASE From mid-century until1981, two I major surges in the world grain area oc- From the beginning of agriculture until curred. The first came in the early fifties, the mid-twentieth century, most of the when the Soviets embarked on the Vir- growth in world food output came from gin Lands project. Between 1951 and expanding the cultivated area. Since 1956, they added some 40 million hect- 1950, a combination of the diminishing ares to their cropland base, accounting fertility of new land to plow and the for most of the steep growth in the world availability of new technologies shifted grain area.24 the emphasis from plowing new land to The second surge began when world raising land productivity. Roughly four grain prices doubled between 1972 and fifths of the growth in world food output 1973. Farmers throughout the world re- since mid-century has come from this sponded to record prices by plowing sou rce.22 more land. In the United States, they not The world grain area increased some only returned idled cropland to use, they 24 percent between 1950 and 1981, also plowed millions of acres of highly when it reached an all-time high. (See erodible lznd. Between 1972 and 1976, 6i Reexamining the World Food Prospect (47) the U.S. area in grain climbed some 24 lagers are either expanding their exist percent. But soil erosion increased as ing dwellings or building new ones. And well. By 1977, American farmers were an industrial sector expanding at more losing an estimated six tons of soil for than 12 percent annually since 1980 every ton of grain they produced." means the construction of thousands of Meanwhile the Soviet Union, embar- new factories. Since most of China's 1.1 rassed by its 1972 crop failure, expanded billion people are concentrated in its its area in grain some 7 percent. By rich farming regions, new homes and 1977, it had reached a record high. But factories are often built on cropland. erosion of soil by both wind and water This loss of agricultural land combined also increased. Although detailed data with the shifts to more profitable crops on soil loss are not available, papers has reduced the grain-growing area in published by the Soil Erosion Labora- China 9 percent since 1976." tory at the University of Moscow indica- Throughout the Third World, mount- ted severe and worsening erosion.26 ing population pressures continue to In early 1982, Mikhail Gorbachev, push farmers onto lands too steeply then only a Politburo member, urged sloping to sustain cultivation and semi- planners to heed the advice of soil scien- arid lands too dry to be protected from tists and adopt measures to limit ero- the winds when plowed. As erosion con- sion. But in the face of pressures to re- tinues, land gradually loses its inherent duce food importsthen the world's productivity, threatening the livelihood largestthe scientists often were ig- of those who depend on it. nored and responsible management practices cast aside." Soil erosion is making future produc- Continual overuse of biological tion gains more difficult in China as well. systems can set in motion changes The Yellow River Conservancy Commis- sion reported in 1980 that the Huang that become self-reinforcing. He, or Yellow River, was depositing 1.2 billion tons of soil in the ocean each year. At the Mauna Loa observatory in During the eighties, the results of this Hawaii, scientists taking air samples can process became clear. Researchers now tell when spring plowing starts in China realize that continual overuse of biologi- by the surge of dust carried eastward by cal systems can set in motion changes prevailing winds." that become self-reinforcing. World Perhaps the grimmest soil erosion re- Bank ecologist Kenneth Newcombe has port came in a 1978 dispatch from the described how complex systems unravel U.S. embassy in Addis Ababa, stating through several stages, each of which that an estimated 1 billion tons of topsoil hastens the onset of the next. His model, were washing down from Ethiopia's drawn from the experience of Ethiopia, highlands each year. The result for that shows how a decline in biological pro- country has become well known: recur- ductivity can be triggered by a loss of rent famine, a window on the future of tree cover." other developing countries that are fail- All too often, this starts when the ing to control soil loss." firewood demands of growing popula- The use of land for building is also tions begin to exceed the sustainable shrinking the cropland area. In China, yield of local forests. As the woodlands one result of the past decade's welcome recedefromthetowns,firewood prosperity is that literally millions of vil- becomes scarce. At this point, villagers 48) Slate of the World 1989 start using crop residues and animal a 13-percent shrinkage in grain area. dung for cooking. This interrupts two Abandonment on this scale suggests that important cycles, depriving the land of inherent fertility may be falling on a far nutrients and also of the organic matter larger area, helping explain why the essential to maintaining a productive Soviets now lead the world in fertilizer soil structure. As protective vegetation use while still ranking a distant third in disappears and as soils become more graM production after the United States compact, more rainfall runs ofsoil ero- and China.S4 sion accelerates, less water is absorbed In some developing countries, crop- by thesoil,and thesoilmoisture land degradation from erosion is leading needed for healthy crops diminishes. to the wholesale abandonment not only Water tables begin to fall. Over time, of cropland. but of entirevillages. wells go dry. Eventually, not enough Across the southern fringe of the Sahara soil is left to support even subsistence- Desert. thousands of villages and their level agriculture. At this point, villagers surrounding farmlands are surrendering become environmental refugees, head- to the sand. Declining rainfall and deser- ing for the nearest city or relief camp. tification are forcing the agricultural (See Chapter 4.) frontier to retreat southward across a Official recognition of this cycle of broad band of Africa, from Mauritania in land degradation and its consequences the west to the Sudan in the east S3 is emerging in India. Agronomists there As the eighties draw to a close, such estimated that their country, with the same cropland aria as the United States, Table 3-2. United States: Sign-Up for was losing somc 5 billion tons of topsoil Conservation Reserve Program, March each year as oi. 1975. compared with a 1986July/August 1988 U.S. loss of just ever 3 billion tons. In 1985, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi set Average up a National Wastelat.is Development Annual Board; its aim is to transform 5 million Sign-up Area Rental Race hectares of degraded land every year Period Signed UpPer Hectare into fuelwood and fodder plantations.32 (million This grim process of eroding soils is hectares) (dollars) leading the world into a period of agri- March 1986 0.30 104 cultural retrenchment. Even ignoring May 1986 1.12 109 the cropland idled under U.S. commod- August 1986 1.90 116 ity programs, the world area in grain has February 1987 3.84 declined steadily since reaching the his- 126 July 1987 119 torical high in 1981. The United States is 2.14 February 1988 1.38 119 in the midst of a five-year program to July /August convert at least 40 million acres (16 mil- 1.05 121 lion hectares) of highly erodible crop- 1988 land-11 percent of its total cropland Total 11.73 120 to grassland or woodland before it SOURCES:U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), becomes wasteland. (See Table 3-2.)33 Economic Research Service (ERS), Agricultural Re- In contrast, the Soviet Union does not sources: Cropland, Water, and Conservation Situation and have a program for converting highly Outlook Report (Washington.D.C.: September erodible land to less-intensive, sustain- 1987); "Sixth CRP Signup Adds 3.4 Million Acres." Agricultural Outlook, August 1988; data for able uses. As a consequence, each year July/August 1988 are preliminary Worldwatch es- since 1977 it has abandoned roughly a timates based on Tim Osborn, USDA, ERS, private million hectares of cropland, leading to communication, NovemberI,1988.

F3 Reexamining the World Food Prospect (49) data as are available indicate that soil round cropping, as they often do where erosion is slowly reducing the inherent monsoons prevail, irrigation allows the productivity of up to one third of the production of two, three, or even more world's cropland, though increased use crops per year. of chemical fertilizersistemporarily China and India lead the world in irri- masking this deterioration. Worldwide, gated land. In China, this agricultural an estimated 25 billion tons of topsoil is practicegrewimpressively between being lost from cropland each year, 1950 and 1980, increasing from scarcely roughly the amount that covers Aus- 20 million hectares in 1950 to some 48 tralia's wheat lands.s6 million by 1980. The growth facilitated an increase in multiple cropping, from an average of 1.3 crops per hectare in 1950 to 1.5 in 1980." India's net irrigated area in 1950 was WATER FOR IRRIGATION almost exactly the same as China's. The spread of irrigation from its initia- Though growth has been less rapid, the tion in the Middle East several thou- total nonetheless reached some 39 mil- sand years ago has been dramatic, as lion hectares as of 1980. The most rapid detailed in State of the World 1987. At growth has occurred since the mid-six- the start of this century, the world total ties, following the introduction of high- stood at some 40 million hectares. By yielding wheat and rice varieties that 1950, it had reached 94 million hec- were both more responsive to the use of tares; by 1980, 249 million hectares. water and more exacting in their de- After 1980, however, growth slowed mands.Thisenhancedprofitability dramatically,expandingbyanes- stimulated widespread investments by timated 8 million hectares since then. small farmers in wells of their own so (See Figure 3-3.)37 they could more fully exploit the yield Irrigation often holds the key to crop- potential of the new varieties.ss ping intensity, especially in monsoonal The United States and the Soviet climates, where the wet season is fol- Union rank third and fourth, respec- lowed by several months with little or no tively, in irrigated area. Growth in U.S. rain. Where temperatures permit year- irrigated area from 1950 to 1980 was concentrated in the southern Great Million Plains. Soviet irrigated area grew stead- Hectares ily during the same period. With some 300 18 million hectares already under irrigation in 1983, the government planned to add over 600,000 hectares a year during the mid-eighties. The Soviets look to ir- 200 - rigation not only to help boost food production but also to minimize the wide swings in crop output that result from

100 - highly variable rainfall." Unfortunately, not all of the irrigation expansion during the preceding three decades is sustainable. Some, as in the U.S. southern Great Plains, is based on t9C0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 the use of fossil water, which will eventu- Figure 3.3. World Irrigated Area. 190045 ally be depleted. In other parts of the

- .-. :. i 64 (50) State of the World 1989 United States and in other countries, long run withdrawals cannot exceed some irrigation growth has resulted in aquifer recharge.* the drawing down of water tables as In China, where the expansion also pumping exceeds aquifer recharge. In peaked in1978, irrigated area had addition, the water available for irriga- shrunk 2 percent by 1987. Under parts tion is being reduced in still other areas of the North China Plain in the region by the growing water demands of indus- surrounding Beijing and Tianjin, the tries and cities." water table is dropping by one to two In recent years, the world's two lead- meters per year. Industrial, residential, ing food producersthe United States and agricultural users compete for dwin- andChinahaveexperiencedun- dling supplies of fresh water. Deteriora- planned declines in irrigated area. The tion in some community irrigation sys- U.S. irrigated area, which peaked in tems is also evident due to neglect 1978, has fallen some 7 percent since arising from the shift to family-centered then,reversingseveraldecades of farming.** growth. (See Figure 3-4.) In addition to Overpumping is evident in India as falling water tables, depressed commod- well. Although no groundwater study ity prices and rising pumping costs have comparable to the USDA survey has contributed to the shrinkage." been done, several states have reported Further declines are in prospect. In that water tables are falling and that 1986, USDA reported that more than wells are going dry. In Tamil Nadu, on one fourth of the 21 million hectares of India's eastern coast, the water table in irrigated cropland was being watered by some areas fell 25-30 meters during the pulling down water tables, with the drop ranging from six inches to four feet per seventies. In Maharashtra, on the west year. They were falling either because coast, competition is growing between the pumping exceeded the rate of large-scale producers of commercial aquifer recharge or- because the water crops, such as sugarcane, and local vil- was from the largely nonrenewable lagers who are producing food staples Ogallala Aquifer. Although water min- for their own consumption. As commer- ing is an option in the short run, in the cial growers invest in deeper wells, they lower the water table, and the shallow, Million hand-dug wells of the villagers go dry. Hectares Thousands of Indian villages now rely on tank trucks for their drinking water. Notwithstanding widespread water shortages in some states, there is still a large potential for irrigation expansion in parts of India, such as in the water- rich Gangetic Plain.* In the Soviet Union, the excessive use of water for irrigation takes the form of diminished river flows rather than falling water tables. A good part of the nation's irrigated cropland is iit central Asia, and much of it is watered by the Syr-Darya 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 and Amu-Darya, the two great rivers of Figure 3-4. Irrigated Land 1st the the region. Irrigation diversions from United Sisk* 190044 these rivers have greatly reduced their Reexamining the World Food Praspect (5i) flow into the landlocked Aral Sea. As a certain amount of salt, the buildup of result, the sea's water level has fallen this natural compound is a common some 12 meters since heavy river diver- threat to the sustainability of irrigated sions got under way some two decades agriculture. As long as the hydrody- ago." . namics of the irrigation system provide Since 1960, the area covered by the sufficient flushing, salt does not ac- Aral Sea has shrunk by 40 percent. Muy- cumula;.: in the surface soil. But in nak, once a port city and major fish-pro- many semiarid and arid regions, this is cessing center, is now nearly 50 kilome- not the case. ters from the shore. Soviet scientists fear a major ecological catastrophe is unfolding as the sea slowly disappears. The dry The productivity of one third of ir- bottom is now becoming desert, the site rigated land is being adversely af- of sandstorms that may drop on the surrounding fields up to half a ton per hec- fected by severe waterlogging and tare of a sand-salt mixdamaging the salting. very crops that water once destined for the sea is used to grow.47 The Soviet Union's prospects for fu- Worldwide, the prospects for major ture irrigation expansion are limited. gains in irrigated area are not good. To Two years ago, the government aban- be sure, India's irrigated area is pro- doned its ambitious plan to divert south- jected to expand steadily in the years ward into central Asia the Siberian rivers ahead, and the Soviet Union's continu- that flow into the Arctic Ocean. Al- ing investments will lead to some mod- though investment in irrigation contin- est increases. In several of the smaller ues, the prospective net gains are mod- countries of Asia, such as Thailand and est ones.48 the Philippines, naturally flooded rice- Apart from the growing scarcity of land is being converted to irrigated rice- fresh water, the productivity of perhaps land, a shift that permits farmers to raise one third of the world's irrigated land is yields dramatically. At least some devel- being adversely affected by severe water- oping countries on each continent are logging and salting. (See also Chapter planning new additions to their irrigated 2.) Like soil erosion, this process at first land. As food prices go up, investment in gradually reduces land productivity and irrigation will also rise. But as noted ear- eventually leads to abandonment. lier, irrigated area in the United States If underground drainage of irrigated and China has declined in recent years land is not adequate, percolation from and may well drop further.49 river water diverted onto farmland grad- On balance, it now seems unlikely that ually accumulates and over time slowly the world will be able to reestablish a raises the water table until it moves to trend of rapid, sustained gains in irri- within a few feet of the surface. As a re- gated area of the sort that characterized sult, deep-rooted crops begin to suffer. the period from 1950 to 1980. In retro- As the water table continues to rise, it spect, this three-decade growth era will begins evaporating through the remain- probably be seen as unique. To the ex- ing inches of soil into the atmosphere, tent that the irrigated area expands in leaving salt on the surface and reducing the future, it may depend as much on the Land's productivity. gains in water-use efficiency as on new With all natural water containing a supplies.50

GG (52) State of the World 1989 LAND PRODUCTIVITY however, yields should resume their long-term rise.52 POTENTIAL By far the most important source of rising grain yields in recent decades has The ancients calculated yield as the ratio been the growth in fertilizer use. From of grain harvested to that sown. For 1950 through 1984. world fertilizer use them, the scarce resource was the seed moved higher each year, with only occa- grain itself. In the late twentieth century, sional interruption. It increased during land is becoming the constraint. The key this time from 14 million to 125 million to meeting future needs is raising land tons, a gain of more than 11 percent per productivity. year. Between 1984 and 1988, however, With little opportunity to add produc- usage went from 125 million to 135 mil- tive land to the world's cultivated area, lion tons, an 'nnual rise of less than 2 the food - .prospect in the nineties is di- percent. The trend has become some- rectly tied to the potential for raising what erratic as agricultural commodity land productivity. Between 1950 and prices have weakened, Third World debt 1984, farmers more than doubled the has soared, the yield response to fertili- output of their cropland. World grain zer use has diminished, and many finan- yield per hectare increased from 1.1 tons cially pressed governments have re- to 2.3 tons, a remarkable feat. (See Fig- duced fertilizer subsidies.53 ure 3-5)51 In per capita terms, world fertilizer Since 1984, however, grain yields have use quintupled between 1950 and 1984, changed little. One reason is undoubt- going from 5 kilograms to 26 and offset- edly the depressed level of farm prices ting a one-third decline in grain area per during thisperiod, which has dis- person. (See Figure 3-6.) As land be- couraged both short-term investment in comes scarce, farmers rely more on addi- inputs, such as fertilizer, and longer- tional fertilizer to expand output, in ef- term investments in land improvement. fect substituting energy in the form of The monsoon failure in India in 1987 fertilizer for land in the production pro- and the droughts in North America and cess.54 China in 1988 also lowered the global The bulk of this impressive increase in average yield. if grain prices increase, world fertilizer use during the fifties and most of the sixties occurred in the indus- Kilograms trial world. But the practice spread in 3,000 Asia as Green Revolution varieties of wheat and rice were widely introduced. 2,500 - In China, chemical fertilizers were not widely used until 1960, when it became 2,000 - clear that organic fertilizers were not P(r\ going to be able to produce enough food 1,500 for the country's growing population. Usage more than doubled between 1976 1,000 - and 1981the steepest increase ever in a major food-producing countryal- 500 Soutre: US. Dept. though organic fertilizer continues to be of Agriculture a major source of plant nutrients in 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Chines Figure 3-5. World Grain Yield Per Haim, Some sense of the potential for raising 19e.,048 land productivity worldwide can be

117 Reexamining the World Food Prospect (53) Hectares gone much higher. Corn yields in the United States, for example, have ex ceeded 7 tons per hectare (112 bushels per acre) in good crop years. Likewise, wheat in the United Kingdom has ranged between 6 and 7 or more tons per hectare in recent years.ss At this point, no one knows how far yields can profitably be raised. Eventu- ally, growth in yield per hectare, like the growth of any other biological process in a finite environment, will conform to the S-shaped growth curve. What is not clear 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 WOO is how close output in the higher-yield Fica34. %liodd Fatlism Use and countries is to the upper inflection point Am Per Capiii. 19504$ on this curve, where the rise will slow markedly and begin to level off. gleaned from looking at yield trends for The systematic application of science wheat, rice, and corn in countries with to agriculture and the increasing invest- the highest yield levelsfor example, ment of energy in agricultural inputs and rice in Japan, corn in the United States, processes has permitted a regular yearly and wheat in the United Kingdom. In increase in yields for more than a gener- 1950, crop yields in these countries were ation, making it difficult to imagine a sit- essentially the same, at about 2.25 tons uation where yields will not continue per hectare. Over time, the Japanese rice their steady rise. Nonetheless, some ana- yield increased slowly, reaching 4 tons lysts a; ^ becoming concerned about the per hectare in the mid-seventies. Since potential for indefinitely raising yields, a then, it has increased relatively little, concern heightened by the limited po- even though the government support tential for finding new cropland. price isfar above the world market Robert Herdt, senior economist at the price.ss Rockefeller Foundation, anticipates a slowdown in grain production growth in A similar trend exists in other high- the developing countries. He observes technologyrice-producingcountries, that "in the next five to ten years there such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Italy. is little potential for further rapid spread In each case, once rice yields pass 4 tons of existing semi-dwarf varieties that proper hectare, they rise quite slowly or vided the breakthrough in developing- even level off, suggesting that dramati- country wheat and rice production in the cally surpassing this level may await new mid-1960s. Likewise,itappears that technologicaladvances.Agricultural there is little scope for increasing the economists Duane Chapman and Randy rates of fertilizer [application] on those Barker of Cornell point out that "the varieties much above their mid-1980s genetic yield potential of rice has not in. levels."ss creased significantly since the release of In some farming communities crop the high yielding varieties in 1966." In yields on the best farms now approach effect, the highest yielding rice varieties those on experimental plots. It is unreal- available to Asian farmers in 1989 were istic, however, to expect yields on farms released 23 years ago." actually to reach these high levels. Such With both corn and wheat, yields have plots are used to determine the maxi- (54) State of the World 1989 mum physical response to an input, such prices, helps explain why growth in as fertilizer. Farmers, on the other hand, world fertilizer use Itas slowed in recent are concerned with the maximum profit years, and why it has actually declined in response. Scientists working on experi- some countries, including the United mental plots can increase fertilizer use States." until there is no more response. Farmers Hybrid wheats and rites have been must stop when the value of the addi- available for many years but, except for tional yield no longer covers the cost of hybrid rice in China, their widespread the extra fertilizer. use awaits far higher grain prices. And Similarly, scientists on experimental since yields of the more productive plots can plant during the period that wheat and rice strains now in use are will produce maximum yields. Farmers, much closer to the photosynthetic limit who must deal with such real-world con- than were those of corn when hybrids straints as multiple-cropping and the de- were introduced 50 years ago, the poten- mands on their time imposed by other tial for raising output is comparatively crops, often cannot plant during this modest. narrow time window. Other possibilities for boosting yield Rising grain yield per hectare must lie in breeding cereals more tolerant of eventually give way to physical con- salt, drought, and heat. In a world grow- straints. With cereal yields, the ultimate limit may be photosynthetic efficiency. ing warmer, gains from this source will Where the best farmers supply all the loom far larger than they do today. nutrients and water that advanced varie- Contrary to popular belief, biotech- ties can use, cereal yields may now be nology is not an agricultural panacea approaching this limit. that will end hunger. For instance, the widely discussed development of nitrogen-fixing cereals, which biotechnological techniques could facilitate, would Biotechnology is a timely addition reduce the need for fertilizer but would to the scientist's tool kit, but it does also likely lower yields, since some of not promise dramatic production the plant's metabolic energy is diverted gains. to fixing nitrogen rather than producing seed. Biotechnology is a timely addition to the scientist's tool kit, one that Evidence that photosynthetic con- will speed the pace and the potential re. straints may be emerging can be seen in turn on investment in agricultural re- the diminishing returns on fertilizer use. search, but it does not promise dra- Whereas 20 years ago the application of matic production gains. The contri- each additional ton of fertilizer in the bution of this research tool, like all the U.S. Corn Belt added 15 to 20 tons to others that scientists use, is ultimately the world graM harvest, today it may add constrained by the limits of photosyn- only 5 to 10 tons. In analyzing recent thetic efficiency. agricultural trends in Indonesia, Chap- Unfortunately, no identifiable tech- man and Barker note that "while one nologies are waiting in the wings that kilogram of fertilizer nutrients probably will lead to the quantum jumps in world led to a yield increase of 10 kilograms of food output such as those associated unmilled rice in 1972, th:- ratio has with the spread of hybrid corn, the nine- fallen to about one to five at present." fold increase in fertilizer use between This, combined with depressed farm 1950 and 1984, the near-tripling of irri-

0 Reexamining the World Food Prospect (55) gated area during the same period, or The decline in total grain production the relatively recent spread of the high- in1988largely theresultof the yielding dwarf wheats and rites in devel- droughts in North America and China oping countries. The contribution of completed the largest two-year drop on these technologiesisdiminishing in record. The accompanying 14-percent some situations and no major new tech- fall in per capita production since 1984 nologies are emerging to take their brought this indicator back to the levels place. of the mid-seventies. Record grain re- Although countries where yields are serves permitted a drawdown of stocks already quite high are finding it difficult to offset most of the decline, limiting the to maintain a rapid rise, those where drop in-insumption per person to 3 yields are low can tap existing technolo- percent.65 gies to boost their output. For example, This look at global changes in per Japan may not be much more successful capita production, however, obscures in raising rice yields in the nineties than wide differences in regional trends. The it has been in the late eighties, but India, principal determinant of whether food where rice yields are less than half those production pererson is rising or de- of Japan, still has a large unrealized po- clining in this case is the differential rate teniia1.61 of population growth. For example, while per capita production in Western Europe was climbing rapidly, that in Africa wked in 1967 and has declined some 27 percent since then. These two FOOD SECURITY TRENDS regions illustrate the extremes.64 The two most useful global indicators of Unfortunately,Latin America has food security are per capita grain pro- joined Africa during the eighties as the duction and carryover stocks of grain second region to experience a decline in the amount in the bin when the new har- food production per person. Since 1981, vest begins. The trend in per capita the year before the debt crisis began, the production gives a sense of whether region's output per person has fallen by overall food availability is improving or roughly one tenth, expanding the re- deteriorating.Changesincarryover gion's grain deficit.65 stocks indicate whether production is ex- As total grain production has declined ceeding consumption or falling short of during the last two years, so too have it. stocks. World carryover stocks reached World grain production increased an all-time high at the beginning of 1987 substantially faster than population from of 459 million tons, enough to feed the 1950 through 1984, boosting per capita world for 101 days. During 1987, stocks output from 246 to 345 kilograms. This dropped to 402 million tons. In 1988, 40-percent increase led to impressive world consumption is likely to exceed improvement in diets in many countries, production by a staggering 152 million boosting consumption of livestock prod- tons. (See Table 3-3.) Unless the mid- ucts. Per capita output declined slightly year USDA world grain consumption es- in 1985 and 1986 before dropping timate of 1,673 million tons is reduced sharply in 1987 and again in 1988. Be- by rising prices, year-end stocks are ex- tween 1984 and 1988, grain production pected to fall to roughly 250 million per person fell from an all-time high of tons. This amounts to 54 days of con- 345 kilograms to 296 kilograms.62 sumption, less than the 57-day supply at (56) Slate of the World 1989 Table 3-3. World Grain Production, Use and Carryover Stocks, 1961S8 Carryover Stocks Consumption Year Production Consumption Quantity Equivalent (million metric tons) (days) 1961 813 835 185 81

1965 917 952 159 61

1970 1.096 1,130 198 64 1971 1.194 1,169 223 70 1972 1,155 1.192 186 57 1973 1,271 1.259 198 57 1974 1,219 1.213 203 61 1975 1,250 1,229 221 66 1976 1.363 1.303 281 79 1977 1,337 1.338 279 76 1978 1,467 1.418 328 84 1979 1,428 1.440 315 80

1980 1.447 1,475 286 71 1981 1.497 1.476 307 76 1982 1.548 1.500 355 86 1983 1.485 1,537 303 72 1984 1.645 1,585 363 84 1985 1,661 1.594 430 98 1986 1,682 1,653 459 101 1987 1,597 1,653 402 89 1988 1.521 1.673 250 54 SOURCES: 1961-87.13.S. Department of Agriculture. Foreign Agricultural Service.World Grain Situation and Outlook.Washington. D.C.. July 1988: 1988. Worldatch Institute. the end of 1972. when world grain prices against food shortagesthe cropland doubled 66 idled under U.S. commodity programs. At this low level. carryover stocks In 1988. some 20 million hectares (50 amount to little more than "pipeline" million acres) were idled under farm supplies. Substantial quantities of grain programs designed to maintain price are required to keep the trucksand stability. (See Table 3-4.) Virtually all barges between producer and consumer this land can be returned to production filled. The supply lines from the United within a year if the USDA decides it is States, which holds a disproportionately needed. large share of global carryover stocks in Amounting to roughly 2 percent of order to assure regular supplies to its the world cropland area, this reserve can customers, often stretch halfway around help boost production now that stocks the world. are depleted. Given the precariously low In addition to its carryover stocks, the levelof carryoverstocks, prudence world has a second line of defense argues for bringing this land back into

71 Reexamining theH'oddFood Prospect (57) Table 3-4. United States: Cropland introduces a special dimension of food Idled Under Commodity insecurity. A drought in the United Programs, 1965 -88 States is invariably accompanied by one in Canada. In 1988, when the U.S. grain Year Land Area harvest was down 29 percent, that of (million Canada was reduced by 33 percent. With hectares) the United States and Canada controlling a larger share of grain exports than 1965 17.4 the Middle East does of oil, this is an 1966 19.3 issue of concern to food-importing 1967 10.2 countries everywhere.68 1968 14.5 The risk of such overwhelming depen- 1969 20.3 dence on one region is obvious. During the eighties, North American grain ex- 1970 21.5 ports have averaged around 110 million 1971 13.7 tons per year. Even at this level, some 1972 23.8 U.S. cropland has been idled during 1973 6.8 most of the decade. 1974 0.0 As stocks have dropped, higher prices and scarce supplies increasingly pose a 1975 0.0 serious threat to those food-importing 1976 0.0 countries with low incomes. When car- 1977 0.0 ryover stocks hit 57 days at the end of 1978 7.4 1972, the United States returned its 1979 5.3 idled cropland to use. Four years passed, however, before world grain reserves 1980 0.0 were rebuilt and food-importing coun- 1981 0.0 tries could again breathe easily. 1982 4.5 Thus, the devastated grain crop in 1983 31.5 North America in 1988 is sobering news 1984 10.9 for the more than 100 countries that depend on imports from the North Ameri- 1985 12.5 can breadbasket. For the poorer food- 1986 17.5 deficit countries, many with external 1987 21.7 debts that are already unmanageable, 1988 20.1 maintaining needed imports in the face souncE: Brad Karmen. U.S. Department of Agri- of sharp price rises may not be possible. culture. private communication. June 24. 1988. For people living in these countries, the productionin 1989. However, the 12 road to the next harvest could be a long million hectares of highly erodible crop- one. land that has been planted to grass or In the drought-stricken year of 1988, the U.S. grain harvest fell below domes- trees since early 1986 under the Conser- tic consumption, probably for the first vation Reserve Program should not be time in history. (See Table 3-5.) With a disturbed." harvest of 196 million tons and an es- The overwhelming dependence on timated consumption of 206 million NorthAmerica, where agricultural out- tons, there was no surplus for export put in both the United States and Can- from the 1988 crop. Export demands ada is affected by the same climatic cycle, until the 1989 harvest begins are being (p8) State of the World 1989 Table3-5. United States; Grain Production, Consumption, and Exportable Surplus by Crop Year, 1980-88 Exportable Surplus from Year Production Consumption Current Crop° (million metric tons) 1980 268 171 + 97 1981 328 179 + 149 1982 331 194 + 137 1983 206 182 + 24

1984 313 197 + 116 1985 345 201 + 144 1986 311 217 + 97 1987 277 215 + 62 1988 196 206 10 1Docs not include carryovcr stocks. souttcx: USDA, ForcignAgricultural Service,World Crain Situation and Outlook,Washington, D.C., October and Novembcr 1988. met almostentirely by drawing down Thesecond trend is the warming of the stocks. If those had not been available, planet. The areas that are likely to expe- the 10-million-ton shortfall would also rience higher temperatures and lower have forced a reduction in domestic con- rainfall include some of the earth's key sumption, or the importation of grain if food-producing regions, such as mid- it were available. continental North America. The world's What will happen if there is a severe farmersalready struggling to keep up drought in 1989? Historically, the odds with the record year-to-year growth in against severe back-to-back droughts populationare facing the nineties with have been rather high. But with global a great deal of uncertainty about how warming now apparently under way, the quickly the warming will progress and frequency of hot, dry summers is in- how it will affect their production. creasing. In the event of even a moder- Meeting adequate food needs during ate drought in North America, world the nineties and beyond will require far foodpriceswouldsoar, A severe more of the attention of political leaders, drought would cause a global food particularly those in the Third World, emergency. than ever before. (See Chapter 10,) Un- In sum, overall food security is being less national governments are prepared threatened by two trends. One is the loss to wage the war against hunger on a of momentum in the growth in output, a much broader front, it may not be possi- loss that is particularly noticeable in ble to arrest the decline in per capita major developing countries, such as food production that is now undermin- China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico. ing the future of so many people. 4 Abandoning Homelands Jodi L. Jacobson

More than two years after an explosion for example, have reduced the ability of at a nuclear reactor in the Ukraine ecosystems to support life throughout spewed clouds of radiation from Kiev to the Third World. At the same time, high- Krakow, Soviet officials have announced risk technologies have sometimes re- plans to demolish the adjacent town of sulted in accidents, such as the Cherno- Chernobyl. This death warrant extin- byl explosion, that leave whole regions guished any hope of returning home for uninhabitablefor extended periods. the city's 10,000 former residents. Be- Moreover, the expected rise in sea level cause the world's worst nuclear disaster because of global warming threatens to has permanently contaminatedtheir reduce the planet's habitable area on a town, they will be forced to settle else- grand scale. where.' The growing number of people flee- These people are refugees, though ing from environmental decline adds a not by any standard definition. Accord- new dimension to an already controver- ing to widely accepted doctrine, refu- sial global refugee problem. The num- gees are people who decide to seek asy- ber needing protection and assistance lum out of fear of political, racial, or under traditional refugee classifications, religious persecution, or who leave their now more than 13 million, mounts daily homes because of war or civil strife. This due to wars and insurrections, despotic conventional notion, however, leaves governments, and deteriorating eco- out a new and growing classenviron- nomic conditions, particularly in the mental refugees. Third World. Meanwhile, nations that Throughout the world, vast areas are have been traditional havens are increas- becoming unfit for human habitation. ingly trying to restrict this form of immi- These lands are being despoiled either gration.2 through long-term environmental deg- Most governments do not recognize radation or by brief but catastrophic environmental decline as a legitimate events. Unsustainable land use practices, cause of refugee movements. Neither An expanded version of this chapter appeared as the U.S. State Department nor the U.N. Worldatch Paper 86,Environmental Refugees: A High Commissioner for Refugees, for Yareluiek of Habitability. example, collects data on this problem. (6o) State of the World 1989 Yet the number of environmental refu- Though Steinbeck never used the geesestimated to be at least 10 mil- term, his "Okies" were environmental lionrivals that of officially recognized refugees. To be sure, the depression had categories and is sure to overtake them.3 a strong impact on U.S. agriculture. But Judging by what people will put up it. was the severely degraded environ- with before they move away from an en- ment dubbed the Dust Bowl that ulti- vironmental hazard, society's standards mately forced farmers from their land. concerning habitability are fairly lax. Unsustainable farming practices had im- People are willing to tolerate a broad poverished soils and made them more range of threats to health and longevity. vulnerable to erosion by wind and rain. Witness the fact that, throughout the As the drought that became a hallmark world, densely populated cities plagued of that decade deepened, rural people's by air and water pollution are the rule economic margin of safety vanished rather than the exception. And in many along with their topsoil. countries, millions have built homes in Today, this story is repeating itself in areas prone to avalanches and floods. many parts of the world. Agricultural Forevery environmentalrefugee, lands are degrading on every continent. then, there are thousands more whose This deterioration is most acute and its lives are compromised every day by un- impact is greatest in those developing healthy or hazardous conditions. Be- countries where the majority of the peo- cause migration is a last resortwhen ple are farmers. Soil erosion may cost conditions become so poor that life itself Canada some $1 billion annually in re- is in imminent dangerthe rising num- duced yields, but Canadians do not ber of environmental refugees should be starve. By contrast, sharply deteriorating seen as an important indicator of the ex- land resources in Africa imperil the lives tent and severity of worldwide envirc n- of millions.3 mental deterioration. Land degradation is most often associated with poverty. Indeed, the two form a vicious circle. Throughout the Third World, subsistence farmers eke out a living on !and depleted of nutri- IN SEARCH OF FERTILE ents, stripped of topsoil, and no longer able to withstand natural stresses such a° SOILS drought or heavy rain. In his landmark historical novel The These cultivators are, in a sense, vic- Grapes of Wrath, John Steinbeck chroni- tims of circumstance. Though the gross cled the economic and environmental domestic product of most developing disintegration of American farms in the countries is dominated by farm goods, Great Plains during the thirties. During few invest in the agricultural sector that period, small farmers caught in the beyond their support of cash crops for vise of poverty and debt took to planting export. The low, government-regulated crops from fencerow to fencerow to sur- prices, inadequate credit and extension vive. Failed harvests and subsequent services, and inequitable land tenure foreclosures rent the fabric of rural soci- characteristic of many developing coun- ety, sending thousands of families west- tries have kept small landholders from ward in search of a livelihood. Most of increasing productivity in a sustainable these former landowners and sharecrop- manner. Eventually their land is de- pers became migrant workers.4 pleted beyond restoration. Once this AbandoningHomelands (6i) stage is reached, people are forced to and civil strife," according to the United move. Nations Environment Programme Pressed by growing families and deep- (UNEP). Such exodus...exacerbate[s1 ening poverty, farmers make decisions the already dire urban problems.... to increase productivity that, in the long And, at the same time, it has delayed run, prove environmentally and efforts to rehabilitate and develop rural economicallydisastrous.Cultivating areasthrough the lack of manpower land that should be fallowed, dividing and the increased negligence of land." already small plots among family members, bearing numerous children to help with farm chores, cutting ever-scarcer Mass migrations have become the trees for fuel and fodder are all practices enduring symbol of hunger. that, while they may ensure a meager harvest for tomorrow, make certain that famine is inevitable. Desertification, the most severe form Mass migrations have become the en- of land degradation, is most acute in the during symbol of hunger. In Ethiopia, and and semiarid regions. (See Chapter relief workers watch the movements of 2.) A UNEP survey estimated that 4.5 villagers toward food distribution cen- billion hectares around the worldfully ters as one indicator of conditions in the 35 percent of the earth's land surface rural areas. In the country's northern re- are in various stages of desertification. gion, "stone deserts" have replaced More than 850 million people live in nearly 4 million hectares of once-fertile these areas; many risk having their farmland. In June 1988, the U.S. em- homes and livelihoods foreclosed by bassy in Addis Ababa reported that land degradation .6 about I million people in the highlands About 135 million people inhabit were about to move unexpectedly due to areas undergoing severe desertification. famine conditions.Soil erosion and Soil scientist Harold Dregne of Texas rapid loss of productivity ensure that the Tech University notes that "50 million next drought will create a new wave of ...have already experienced a major environmental refugees.6 loss in their ability to support them- Many fleeing land degradation are not selves. [Furthermore) an unknown per- classified as environmental refugees be- centage of that 50 million will have to cause they simply move on to cultivate abandon their agricultural way of life increasingly marginal lands. In Africa, and join the overcrowded cities to seek thousands end up in the relief camps relief." that are now regular fixtures on that con- Africa, a land where poor soils and tinent. Others move to urban areas: the variable rainfall pose a harsh climate for massive shift to cities that has occurred agriculture, has spawned the most envi- in the Third World since mid-century is ronmental refugees. Most come from due in large part to the complex of fac- the Sahel, a belt that spans several agro- tors underlying land degradation. ecological zones and stretches west to "Throughout the Third World. land east across some nine countries from degradation has been the main factor in Mauritania and Senegal on into the the migration of subsistence farmers Sudan. Desertification is accelerating in into the slums and shantytowns of major the Sahel, the world's largest area to be cities, producing desperate populations threatened by the wholesale loss of ara- vulnerable to disease and natural disas- ble land. As the region's habitability de- ters and prone to participate in crime clines, the movement of people in- (62) Slate of the World 1989 creases: in the last 20 years, the area's Table 4.1. Displaced Population in urban population has quadrupled.'° Selected African Countries, September Two major droughts have occurred in 1985 the Sahel over the past two decades. In the first. from 1968 to 1973. between People Share of 100,000 and 250,000 people who waited Country Displaced Population too long to migrate died. To escape this (number) (percent) fate, many Sahelians moved south and Burkina Faso 222,000 3 west to coastal African nations. Whole Chad 500.000 11 villages were abandoned as the move- Mali 200,000 3 ment across and within borders got Mauritania 190,000 12 under way. The flux of environmental Niger 1,000,000 16 refugees was the largest ever witnessed: more than 250,000 people in Mauri- SOURCES: U.N. Office of Emergency Operations in Africa. Status Report on Me Emergency Situation in tania, 20 percent of its population, Africa as of 1 September 1985 (New York: United joined the already growing ranks of des- Nations, 1985). titute farmers in the country's towns. Nearly 1 million environmental refugees June 1985, some 400,000 nomads had in Burkina Faso (then Upper Volta), a moved to the cities. The population of sixth of the country's population, mi- Mauritania's capital, Nouakchott, grated to cities." swelled to four times its original size as By 1974 there were 200,000 people desert swept the countryside. Its an- inNiger completely dependent on cientcitiesof Chinguetti,Tichitt, food distribution in towns and camps. In Oualata, and Ouadane are now under Mali, 250,000, or 5 percent of the popu- constant siege from glacier-like waves lation, were totally aid-dependent. Cote of sand. Mauritania's only major road- d'Ivoire, with a relatively stable and de- way, optimisticallychristenedthe veloped economy, became the principal "Highway of Hope," has become hope- destination for many refugees from the lessly impassable.14 growing desert. t2 Changes in land use since colonial Years of lower-than-average rainfall times that have undermined the partner- persisted throughout the seventies and ship between people and land are eighties,leading up to the second among the causes of the Sahel's decline. drought. By early 1984, more than 150 Both human and livestock populations million people in 24 western, eastern, have increased dramatically. One result and southern African countries were on has been a growing competition be- the brink of starvation. By March 1985, tween farmers and livestock herders for the drought had forced an estimated 10 scarce land. In the state of Borno in Ni- million people to abandon their homes geria, a stable agricultural balance had in search of food.'3 held for centuries due to complementary In just five countriesBurkina Faso, land use patterns developed by the Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger Hausa planters and the itinerant cattle- more than 2 million people were dis- herders, the Fulani. But a breakdown in placed during this second drought. (See land stewardship, combined with the re- Table 4-1.) Some 3 million, half of gion's droughts, has reduced productiv- Niger's population, were affected by ity and heightened tensions between the drought during 1983. There, Fulani groups. In many cases, the herders have and Tuareg pastoralists became paup- had to migrate.15 ers as two thirds of their herds died. By Pastoralists, politically less powerful Abandoning Homelands (63) than their agrarian counterparts, often todesertification.Irrigationcanals, lose out in the struggle for land and are roads, and oases are threatened by drift- faced with the choice of grazing their ing sand and shifting dunes.is herds on smaller patches or becoming In the southern part of the continent, settled farmers themselves. Long accus- deforestation, soil erosion, and the de- tomed to wandering the continent's arid pletion of water supplies have driven and semiarid lands in an ecologically tens of thousands of environmental refu- balanced if somewhat tenuous partner- gees from their farmlands to other rural ship with nature, many of the great pas- areas, into towns and cities, or into relief toral tribes, like the Fulani and the Tua- camps. In Botswana, for example, bore- reg, have been forced by government holes have been drilled in many parts of policy and land degradation to adopt a the country to supply the water needs of more sedentary life-style. cattle herds that have multiplied in part Governments throughout the Sahel due to government incentives to export encourage the establishment of cash- beef. Water tables are now dropping crop plantations and settled agriculture steadily as a result, forcing herders to in rangelands for a host of economic and migrate or give up their stock.i/ political reasons. But these types of What seems to be self-reinforcing farming, less ecologically appropriate drought conditions have also taken hold than pastoralism in arid lands, reduce in India. Between 1978 and 1988, west- fallow periods and intensify degradation ern Rajasthan and parts of eastern India on land that is far too fragile for sus- were gripped by serious drought. Thou- tained cultivation. Not only have these sands of farmers whose crops had failed policies further diminished the nomads' for years on end began moving out of domain, but their increased conversion these areas by mid-1988 to neighboring to sedentary farming concentrates large Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. Many numbers of people and livestock around moved to the huge coastal, city of Ma- oases that in the past were visited only dras, where the influx caused lines for on a seasonal basis. (See Chapter 2.) such basic commodities as water.is Refugees from land degradation today, former nomads like the Tuaregs are sure to be on the move again within the next Mauritania's ancient cities of Chin- decade or so due to the declining habita- guetti and Oudane are now under bility of the ecosystems they are crowding into. siege from glacier-like waves of Land degradation is also undermining sand. habitability north of the Sahel. Larger human and cattle populations have exceeded the carrying capacity of arid In Latin America and the Caribbean, lands in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, land degradation results from the com- and Tunisia. In Algeria, for example, bination of highly inequitable land dis- desertification has begun to undercut tribution and rapidly growing popula- the economy. UNEP notes that north of tions. Latin America is home to some of the Saharan Atlas mountains "some the world's biggest cities in large part large settlements and cultivated lands because of migration from rural areas. are threatened by shifting sand dunes Millions of poverty-stricken farmers fac- and sand drift." In Morocco, high popu- ing decades of agricultural neglect and lation densities on arid lands are leading land degradation throughout the moun- (64) Slate of the World 1989 tains and the plains of South America fill UNNATURAL DISASTERS the urban shantytowns of Sic) Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Mexico City, Lima, and La When an earthquake in Colombia or a Paz. In many countries, particularly in flood in India causes hundreds of deaths Central America, the response to endur- and leaves thousands homeless, society ing poverty and environmental decline accepts these losses as unfortunate acci- has been civil war and migration, often dents of fate. But more people are being illegal, to the United States." killed or displaced by avalanches. cy- Haiti, already the poorest country in clones, earthquakes, and floods than the western hemisphere, also has the ever before, and close examination of fastest-growing population. One third of the environmental backdropagainst the nation's land, exhausted by decades which these events occur suggests a of deforestation and poor husbandry, is strong human component. These disas- now virtually useless, and about 40 per- ters are second only to land degradation cent of the population is malnourished. as a factor in the growing number of en- More than half the land is held by less vironmental refugees. than 4 percent of the planters. The aver- "Unnatural disasters"normal events age holding for a peasant farmer is less whose effects are exacerbated by human than an acre. When food production per activitiesare on the rise. Human pres- person began to decline in the fifties, sures on forests, soils, and land have farmers started adding to their incomes rendered ecosystems less resilient, less by selling charcoal. As trees vanished, so able to cope with natural fluctuations. did the topsoil, further reducing food Ultimately, they collapse under other- production and increasing reliance on wise normal stresses, creating and mag- nifying disasters such as landslides and charcoal for income. A combination of floods. political repression, economic decline, At the same time, competition for land andenvironmentaldevastationhas and natural resources is driving more pushed an estimatedimillion refu- people to live in these marginal, disas- geesone sixth of Haiti's population ter-prone areas, leaving them more vul- out of the country over the past nerable to natural forces. Hence, mil- decade." lions of Bangladeshis live on chars, bars Agriculture is the backbone of devel- of silt and sand in the middle of the Ben- oping economies. Yet throughout the gal delta, some of which are washed Third World, farmers have been forced away each year by ocean tides and mon- by financial and population pressures to soon floods. Millions of Nepalis live in adopt shortcut methods that are leading the areas most likely to be hit by earth- to long-term land degradation. By inter- quakes. And thousands of slum dwellers fering with important natural cycles and in the cities of Latin America perch on overusing fragile, barely stable ecosys- deforested hillsides prone to mudslides tems. they are creating a self-reinforcing in heavy rain. cycle of land deterioration. When the Human-induced changes in the envi- countryside is no longer able to produce ronment can turn a normal event into a a crop, the farmers along with the rest of catastrophe. The deterioration of major the rural populace are forced to move watersheds in many developing coun- on. Whether they end up in cities, in re- tries, for example, increases the number lief camps, or on other marginal lands, of devastating floods. A 1988 flood in these people constitute a growing class Bangladesh came on the heels of heavy of environmental refugees. monsoon rains in the Himalayan water-

r- 1',:-.). Abandoning Homelands Op shed of the Ganges river system. In addi- ranges in Nepal and India have been de- tion to an astounding 25 million left forested in the last four decades.24 homeless, at least 1,200 people died and In the past, truly massive floods hit hundreds of thousands more contracted Bangladesh only once every 50 years or diseases as a result ofcontaminated food so. But since mid-century the number of and water supplies.2' large-scaleiloods has markedlyin- Bangladesh, with its per capita income creased. The country was heavily inun- of $160 ranking it among the world's dated on average once every four years poorest, is one of the most densely through the seventies. After a flood in populated nations. More than 110 mil- 1974, an estimated 300,000 people died lion peoplealmost half the population in a famine that led to the overthrow of of the United Statesare packed into a the country's founder, Sheik Mujibur country about the size of Wisconsin. The Rahman. Since 1980, several "50-year" nation sits on a vast, low-lying island of floods have occurred, each worse than silt that makes up the world's largest the last.25 river delta.22 Similarly, degradation of the Nile wa- Bangladeshis are accustomed to hav- tershed contributed to flooding in the ing water overflow the banks of their Sudan in 1988. The headwaters of the mighty rivers. Each year, monsoon rains Blue Nile are in the highlands of Ethio- quench the thirsty Indian subcontinent. pia, where a rich and diverse agriculture shedding moisture essential for crops. developed thousands of yearsago. Water accumulated in the Himalayan Today, the highlands constitute 90 per- ranges of Bhutan, India, Nepal. and cent of the arable land, supporting 88 Tibet runs through the Ganges and two percent of the country's population and 60 percent ofits livestock. But deforesta- other large rivers, the Brahmaputra and tion and poor soil husbandry, coupled the Meghna, into Bangladesh, supplying with rapid population growth. have un- all but 10 percent of the country's derminedthenation'sagricultural water.26 base.26 This water is critical to Bangladesh's agricultural output: rice farmers, for example, depend on moderate annual floods for a successful harvest. And the Thousands of slum dwellers in silt carried by rivers and streams into the Latin America perch on deforested delta region helps maintain soil fertility. hillsides prone to mudslides in In moderation, these natural commodi- heavy rain. ties are essential to Bangladesh; in excess, they can be disastrous. But up in the Himalayan watershed, Because land degradation has dis- where agrarian people depend on wood rupted the hydrological cycle, in which for fuel, a large and rapidly expanding water is recycled to and from the atmo- rural population has been outstripping sphere through soil absorption and the carrying capacity of the environ- plant transpiration, the entire region is ment. Deforestation, overgrazing, and considerably drier than in the past. Ex- unsustainable farming practices have di- tensive floods are not normally a feature minished the soil's ability to absorb of the region downstream of the high- water. Available data, though not com- lands. but in1988 an exceptionally prehensive, suggest that from half to heavy rainfall, together with the water- three fourths of the middle mountain shed's reduced holding capacity,al-

, u0 (66) State of the World 1989 lowed a torrent to wreak havoc on the metropolis a hostage to the elements."" Sudanese plain below. Khartoum was These"unnaturaldisasters"are ravaged by the deepest flooding to strike largely a product of the same kind of the Sudan in this century, and some 1.5 land degradation discussed in the previ- million people were left homeless.27 ous section, in which financial and popu- Some "natural" tragedies are the relation pressures force both farmers and sult of development strategies that bla- urban dwellers onto marginal lands that tantly disregard their impact on the envi- soon lose their stability. But in this case ronment. In 1983, a cyclone in the the lend degradationwhile devastating Philippines that normally might have in itself and also to be feared because it caused fewer than 100 fatalities killed is self-reinforcing--inhibits the ability of thousands. Floods caused by the tropical ecosystems torollwithnature's storm were far more numerous and se- punches. The result has been that the vere than in the past. "Villages built in rare has become commonplace, the ex- places where flooding had not been a tremes of weather that have been en- problem before are having to deal with dured and survived through the mil- patterns of water runoff that have been lennia are increasingly turning into radically changed by the lumbering and full-fledged catastrophes on an unprece- mining operations which have spread dented scale. unchecked," writes Debora MacKenzie in theKew Scientist."Slag heaps from mines have been thrown up in valleys, sometimes completely rerouting rivers, and whole forests have disappeared."28 A TOXIC HOME Deforestation of mountains and hills that ring cities in the developing world Although Guy Reynolds and his wife has led to an increasing number of mud- moved to Springfield, Vermont, in a mo- slides in urban shantytowns. In Septem- bile home, they arrived with the inten- ber 1987, more than 500 people were tion of staying put. But the Reynolds killed in a cascade of mud and rocks in family and 59 other residents of the mo- Medellin,Colombia, aftertorrential bile-home park in which they live have rains had soaked the Andes for a week. been forced to evacuate. In July 1988, Only half the population of Villa Tina, theU.S.EnvironmentalProtection an impoverished suburb of Medellin, Agency (EPA) ordered their relocation survived the catastrophe." when it determined that the park was Five months later a similar disaster hit atop a landfill containing toxic chemi- the shantytowns of Rio deJaneiro. Eigh- cals. The Reynolds family and their teen inches of rain fell un the city over neighbors are among a small but grow- three weeks, destabilizing the mountain- ing number of refugees from land poi- sides once forested by soil-grabbing soned by hazardous wastes. Once con- trees but now blanketed with huts of finedtoindustrialcountries, the scrap wood, adobe, and sheet metal. inherent conflict between disposal of Nearly 300 people died, 1.000 were, in- toxic wastes and human habitation is jured, and more than 18,000 were left spreading around the world.3' homeless. Mac Margolis of theWashing- Chemical contamination can be sud- ton Postnoted that although this was the denthe result of a rail accident, for in- worst such storm since 1966, "Lately stance, Or it can result from the insidi- ...even modest rains have proven ouspenetration of toxicsintothe deadly. ,render[ing) this sophisticated atmosphere, the food chain, or water

81 Abandoning Homelands (67) supplies. Although toxic wastes pose a Not until 1978 did the New York State pervasive threat to the environment, Department of Healthbased on evi- until recently few countries had laws dence of a high incidence of reproduc- regulating their disposal. As a result, tive problems among women and high many companies found it easier and levels of chemical contamination in cheaper to discard their wastes into homes, the soil, and airorder the evac- landfills, waterways, or the atmosphere. uation of pregnant women and of chil- The disposal of chemical wastes in land- dren under the age of two from 239 fills over the past several decades has homes. Eventually, all but 86 of the 900 created enormous problems for COIMMU- families living in Love Canal were evacu- nities throughout the world now faced ated. Purchasing the homes of the for- with the choice of expensive cleanups or mer residents cost the federal govern- contamination of their environment by ment $20 million. Another $200 million leaking toxics. is being spent to clean up the area." In the United States, dumping wastes into landfills that were later topped off and used for other purposes, such as housing developments, became com- In the United States, thousand of monplace. Today, thousands of toxic toxic waste sites are festering sores waste sites are festering sores in towns in towns and cities. and cities throughout the country, and a battle continues over the hazards they represent and who should bear the re- Love Canal proved to be just the first sponsibility for cleaning them up. In of many. Thousands of other sites across some cases. people remain in their the country are contaminated by both homes, accepting higher risks to health legally and illegally dumped wastes. because they are unable to sell their Realizing that both government and in- property and cannot otherwise afford to dustry would have to share the burden of move. In other cases, toxic contamination is so bad that whole communities the cleanup, the U.S. Congress enacted the Superfund program in 1980." become ghost towns virtually overnight. Since then, 1,390 families in 42 com- Love Canal was one such community. Beginning in 1920, a partially completed munities across the United States have channel between the upper and lower been relocated with Superfund money. Niagara Rivers in upstate New York In 1983, Times Beach, Missouri, a sub- came into use as a municipal and chemi- urb of St. Louis with a population of cal waste dump. In 1953, the channel 2,400, was abandoned and disincor- was filled in, and homes and schools porated as a result of the careless spray- were subsequently built on and around ing on city streets of oil laced with highly the site. Over time, chemicals buried in toxic dioxin. A combination of federal the canal began to surface, and residents and state funds helped relocate families often complained of strange odors and from Globe, Arizona, and Centralia, substances. In 1976, a consultant discov- Pennsylvania. in the same year." ered toxic chemical residues in the air Because relocation is less costly and and sump pumps of a good percentage simpler than detoxifying contaminated of homes bordering the canal. High lev- sitesnot to. mention a faster way of elsof carcinogenicpolychlorinated protecting peoplethe U.S. govern- biphenyls (PCBs) were found in the ment has increasingly used this option to storm sewer system." deal with the toxic waste problem. Since (68) Stale of the World 1989 1985 this class of environmental refu- ers have encouraged the growth of this gees has more than doubled.% industry. As a result, hundreds of thou- Some who would flee remain in haz- sands of people remain subject to the ardous areas because of financial circum- dangers of toxic poisoning and disease stances. About a fifth of the petrochemi- in an area that is barely inhabitable. cal production in the United States is Urban residents around the world concentrated along the 85-mile stretch have long tacitly accepted the reality of of the Mississippi River that winds from living with higher levels of pollution in Baton Rouge to New Orleans. Louisi- their immediate environment, particu- ana. Local economies are primarily de- larly in the air they breathe. Automo- pendent on the jobs and income offered biles, power plants, and industrial plants by the 135 chemical plants and seven oil are the biggest contributors to air pollu- refineries that line this corridor. But the tion. Where pollution control technol- region absorbs more toxic substances ogy is unavailable or regulations are annually than do most entire states, in- unenforced, as in Eastern Europe and cluding such dangerous substances as the Soviet Union, regions where the vinyl chloride, a carcinogen and sus- postwar rush to industrialize was given pected embryotoxin.37 precedence over environmental protection, emissions have made atmospheric pollution so bad that whole regions are The Polish government recently virtually uninhabitable. declared Bogomice and four other Pollution poses grave threats to agriculture and human health throughout villages "unfit for human habita- Eastern Europe. The Polish govern- tion." ment, for example, recently declared Bogomice and four other villages "unfit for human habitation" due to the ex- According to the Washington Pos1, "the tremely high levels of heavy metals in the air, ground, and water along this corri- air and soil deposited by emissions from dor are so full of carcinogens, mutagens, nearby copper-smelting plants. The gov- and embryotoxins that an environmental ernment is encouraging villagers from health specialist defined living [there] as this region to resettle elsewhere by of- 'a massive human experiment,' the state fering compensation.39 attorney general called the pollution 'a Likewise, in the Soviet Union the qual- modern form of barbarism,' anti a chem- ity of air, soil, water, and forest re- ical union leader now refers to it as 'the sources is in rapid decline. Fyodor Mor- national sacrifice zone.' " Several towns gun, head of the country's Environ- in the corridor exhibit uncommonly high mental Protection Committee, declared rates of cancer and miscarriages.% recently that degradation from indus- Because most of these compounds trial waste has reached the proportions represent creeping rather than sudden of"a Chernobyl-like catastrophe." Prob- dangers to health, and because little re- lems are particularly acute in the Ural search has been undertaken to separate Mountains, a region of heavy industry. out the contribution of toxic chemicals In December 1987, Pravda stated that from other health threats, government the industrial city of Ufa, with a popula- protection or assistance tor relocation tion of nearly 1million, had become does not extend to residents of Louisi- "unfit for human habitation. "4° ana's chemical corridor. Indeed, public Sudden accidents, such as a rail crash, policiessuch as lax controls on pollut- fire, or explosion, can instantaneously Abandoning Homelands (69) confer upon thousands of people the this trend. A Union Carbide pesticide status of environmental refugee. In the plant accidentally released a cloud of 19 years leading up to 1978, seven major deadly methyl isocyante over the town, chemical accidents worldwide killed 739 killing about 2,500 and sending more people, injured 2.647. and forced 18,- than 200,000 fleeing for their lives. As 230 from their homes. All but one occur- many as 100,000 people are still suffer- red in industrial countries. Since then, ing side effects. such as blurred vision, the number and se%erity of toxic diha.- disabling lung diseases, intestinal bleed- ters has increased, with more of these in ing, and neurological and psychological the Third World. In the eight years fol- disorders. Bhopal, less a case of perma- lowing 1978, there were 13 major chemi- nently reduced environmental habitabil- cal accidents. The numbers tell the trag- ity, is certainly evidence of the dangers edy: 3,930 dead; 4,848 injured; and inherent in many of the industrial and nearly 1 million evacuated. 41 development choices being made Among the worst examples of an acci- today.44 dent in the industrial world was the 1976 Nuclear reactor accidents have the explosion at a small chemical plant in most pervasive and long-lasting conse- Seveso, Italy, that sent a cloud of smoke quences of any industrial catastrophe. and highly toxic dioxin particles wafting The April 1986 explosion and fire at over the countryside. Eight hundred Chernobyl in the Soviet Union caused a people were evacuated from their homes partial meltdown of the plant's reactor for more than a year; although many core. More than seven tons of radioac- have returned, questions about their tive material were hurled into the atmo- health linger. Incomplete data suggest sphere, eventually contaminating land, an elevated rate of birth defects in the food, and water throughout much of twoyearsfollowingtheexplosion. Whether the accident will result in a Europe. Twenty-eight people died from higher incidence of cancers with long la- acute radiation poisoning wit',,irt 75 days tency periods will only be known over of the accident, while another 300 were time.42 treated for serious radiation exposure. Higher wage costs and tighter con- More than 100,000 peopie were evacu- trols on production and disposal of haz- ated from their homes, and up to 2,500 ardous chemical materials in industrial square kilometers became uninhabit- nations, along with the development of a able.45 global market for chemical products, Chernobyl was the worst react( I. acci- have sent some multinational firms scur- dent in history and will not easily be for- rying to build plants in developing na- gotten. But the fact remains ti-. ,:: ..at even tions. Experience shows that such invest- more serious disaster could .accur at any ments can be a mixed blessing. Although time at a reactor in a densely populated they gain some jobq and revenue from area. A Chernobyl-like accident at the the chemical industry, most developing Indian Point plant in the New York met- countries have neither laws controlling ropolitan region could require the per- toxic chemicals nor the technical and in- manent evacuation of more than i mil- stitutional capacity to put them into lion people. Assessing the risks inherent force. The general lack of controls in using nuclear power under the most makes incidems of contamination more optimistic conditions, nuclear analysts likely.4s have determined that with 500 nuclear The toxic leak in 1984 at Bhopal, plants in operation, there would be one India, was perhaps the worst example of core-damaging accident every 20 years, (70) Stale of the World 1989 based on one accident for every 10,000 Koko had yet to find a port that would years of reactor operation. But the accept the hazardous chemicals.46 Three Mile Island accident in the United Similarly, waste shipped from Italy to Slates occurred after only 1,500 years of Lebanon in May 1988 will be reclaimed worldwide reactor operation, and Cher- by Italy and incinerated aboard a ship in nobyl occurred after another1,900 the middle of the Pacific. More than years 46 2,400 tons of toxic chemicals found their The rapidly growing volume of haz- way to Beirut in a transaction involving ardous waste in industrialized nations, both Lebanese and European mer- coupled with high disposal costs, has led chants, without government supervi. some companies to export their indus. sion. Lebanon's health minister recog- trial residues to the Third World. threat- nized the threat immediately: these ening a new wave of chemical illnesses wastes are "poisonous and harmful to and refugees. It costs from $250 to $350 man and the environment," he said. per ton to dispose of hazardous munici- Other countries, such as Benin, the pal and industrial wastes in the United Congo, and Guinea-Bissau, are recon- Slates, for example, but some develop- sidering plans to accept large quantities ing countries will accept such wastes for of waste from the United Slates and as little as $40 per ton.47 Europe in the wake of an international Local conditions and lack of monitor- outcry against dumping. The Congo, for ing or waste treatment means that a example, recently canceled a contract to large proportion of these imported accept 20,000-50,000 tons of pesticide residue and sludge waste a month from waves will end up in the local environ- a firm in New Jersey." ment. Frequent rains and poor soils in Growing recognition and control of tropical areas hasten the migration of hazardous waste disposal may make the chemical wastes into groundwater sup- world a safer place to livefor a while. plies. Two international treaties that would Thousands of tons of U.S. and Euro- curtail trade in hazardous exports are pean wastes have already been shipped being negotiated, and individual coun- to Africa and the Middle East. Some tries and regions are beginning to take 3,800 tons of toxic waste from Italy action on their own. In May 1988, the dumped in the small Nigerian port Organization of African Unity passed a town of Koko in five shipments between resolution condemning the practice of 1987 and 1988 contained at least 150 accepting toxic chemicals from the in- ions of PCBsihe chemical that put dustrial world, and various of its mem- Love Canal on the map. The contami- ber slates are taking action to imple- nation was the result of an illegal deal ment the declaration. The same month, between an Italian waste contractor and the European Parliament urged its gov- several corrupt Nigerian government ernments to adopt national legislation officials. Residents of Koko complained that would ensure recipient countries that the odors given off by the leaking can handle the wastes. In the United sack, and containers of waste made States, two bills introduced in Congress then ill. The government plans to evac- would restrict the export of hazardous ua..e the 5,000 residents. The Italian substances. Despite these laudable ef- government has since accepted respon- forts, hide has been done to reduce at si'oility for reclaiming and destroying the source the large volumes of toxic the wastes but, as of early December substances produced by industrial aciiv- 1988, a ship laden with the toxics from ity.60 Abandoning Homelands (71) THE THREAT OF sea level rise has probably not exceeded 15 centimeters over the past century.) INUNDATION Such an increase will affect people and infrastructure around the globe, but de- Around the world, the Dutch are per- veloping countries stand to suffer the haps best known for their achievements in water engineering. And well they most immediate and dramatic impacts.ss President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom should be: without the carefully maintained stretches of dikes (400 kilome- of the Maldives has put the problem ters long) and sand dunes (200 kilome- bluntly: "The predicted effects of the change are unnerving: There will be sig- ters) built by Holland's engineers to nificant shoreline movement and loss of hold back the sea, more than half the land. A higher mean sea level would country would be uninhabitable. Cur- inevitably. . .increase frequency of inun- rently, 8 million people make their dation and exacerbate flood damage. It homes and livelihoods onthisre- would inundate fertile deltas, causing claimed delta, a region of unquestioned loss of productive agricultural land and social and economic importance. The vegetation, and increasesalineen- stakes in protecting it, however, are cer- croachment into aquifers, rivers and es- tain to mount. Rising sea levels promise tuaries. The increased costs of recon- to test even the Dutch capabilities in struction, rehabilitation and strength- water management.s1 ening of coastal defence systems could Among the various environmental turn out to be crippling for most affected problems that cause the displacement of countries."54 people from their homes, none rivals the Some climatologists now estimate that potential effects of sea level rise as a re- the rate of sea level rise will accelerate sult of human-induced changes in the after 2050, reaching 2-3 centimeters a earth's climate. A one-meter rise in year. But actual sea level rise will be ocean levels worldwide, for example, much higher in some regions than oth- may result in the creation of 50 million ers because of obvious differences like environmental refugees from various land elevation and less obvious differ- countriesmore than triple the number ences in geological processes such as inallrecognized refugee categories tectonic uplift (naturalshiftsin the today. earth's crust) or subsidence in coastal Most scientists agree that a global areas. Subsidence is a key issue in the warming is under way, caused by the ac- case of river dehas.ss cumulation of "greenhouse gases" due Under natural conditions, deltas are in primarily to fossil fuel use in industrial a state of dynamic equilibrium, forming countries. The uncertainties lie in just and breaking down in a continuous pat- how much higher the earth's average tern of accretion and subsidence. The temperature will go, and how quickly the Mississippi River delta in the United increase will take place. Recent estimates States, for example, was built up by sedi- predict that a global temperature in- ments deposited during floods and laid crease of 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius (3-8 down by the river on its way to the sea. degrees Fahrenheit) can be expected as Over time, these sediments accumulate. early as 2030, rising to as much as 5 de- But regional and local tectonic effects. grees by 2100. (See Chapter 1.)s2 along with compaction, cause the land If correct, this would precipitate a rise created to subside. Local subsidence in sea level of 1.4-2.2 meters by the end alone can translate into a water level rise of next century. (By comparison, global as great as 10 centimeters per year.. Reia-

-. . i. S kJ' (7.2) Slate of the World 1989 live rates of sea level rise, then, depend In this case, the rate of natural subsi- on the sum of global sea level rise and dence must then be added to the abso- local subsidence.5' lute rise in sea level. The third scenario Subsidenceislikelytoaccelerate is accurately referred to as the "really where subterranean stores of water or worst case." It assumes that excessive oil are tapped. In Bangkok, Thailand, groundwater pumping from irrigation local subsidence has reached 13 centi- and other uses accelerates natural subsi- meters per year due to a drop in the dence. water table caused by excessive withdrawals of groundwater over the past three decades. Moreover, channeling, Low-lying delta regions will be diverting, or damming rivers can greatly among the first land areas lost reduce the amount of sediment that reaches a delta. When this happens, as it to inundation under rises in sea has on the Mississippi and the Nile, sedi- level. ment accumulation will not offset subsidence, resulting in heavier shoreline erosion and an increase in water levels." To calculate the economic implica- Low-lying delta regions, important tions of these three cases on both Egypt from both an ecological and social stand- and Bangladesh, the researchers as- point, will be among the first land areas sumed present-day conditions, such as lost to inundation under even slight rises the estimated share of total population in sea level. Fertile deltas are important now living in areas that would be inun- sources of food and other products. Of dated and the share of economic activity the world's major deltas, several, includ- that is derived from them. Continued ing the Bengal and Nile, are also densely settlement and population growth in populated. As a result, these regions will these areas will of course translate into be the single greatest source of refugees even more future environmental refu- from sea level rise. A recent study by gees. researchers at Woods Hole Oceano- The Bengal Delta, resting at the con- graphicInstitutein Massachusetts fluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra. showed the combined effects of sea level and Meghna rivers, is the world's largest rise and subsidence on Bangladesh and such coastal plain and constitutes about Egypt, where the homes and livelihoods 80 percent of the c .try's total area of some 46 million people are poten- (the other one fifth is ..er). As a result, tially threatened.58 the region's inhabitants are subject to The researchers developed three pos- annual floods both from the rivers and sible scenarios under two estimates of from ocean storm surges. sea level rise: a minimum of 13 centime- Just how severely sea level rise will af- ters by 2050 and 28 centimeters by 2100, fect Bangladesh depends in part on the and a maximum of 79 centimeters by pace at which damming and channeling 2050 and 217 centimeters by 2100. The of rivers proceeds and the rate of "best case" scenario assumes the mini- groundwater withdrawal. Although an- mum rise in global sea level and a delta nual flooding is severe and can damage region in equilibrium. The second sce- up to one third of the crops grown on 'sari°, called the "worst case," assumes the flood plains, large areas of the delta the maximum rate of sea level rise and region suffer rain deficits for the rest of the complete damming or diversion of the year, thus creating a large incentive the river system draining into the delta. to divert river water for agriculture. Abandoning Homelands (73) Table 4-2. Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Bengal and Nile River Deltas Under Two Scenarios

Sea Level Rise Gross Global Local Local Habitable National Sea Level Land Sea Level Land PopulationProduct Rise Subsidence Rise Lost Displaced Lost (centimeters) (percent) Bangladesh in 2050 Worst Casel 79 65 144 16 13 10 Really Worst Casey 79 130 239 18 15 13

Bangladesh in 2100 Worst Case' 217 115 332 26 27 22 Really Worst Case 217 230 447 34 35 31

Egypt in 2050 Worst Case' 79 22 101 15 14 14 Really Worst Case 79 65 :44 19 16 16

Egypt in 2100 Worst Case' 217 40 257 21 19 19 Really Worst Casey 217 115 332 26 24 24 lAssumes complete damming or diversion of river system draining into delta.*Assumes excessive groundwater pumping accelerates natural subsidence, SOURCE:John D. Milliman et al., "Environmental and Economic Impact of Rising Sea Level and Subsiding Deltas: The Nile and Bengal Examples." Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. Woods Hole, Mass., unpublished paper, 1988. Such diversions would have a severe im- scenario would be minimal by 2050 pact on the amount of sediment availa- less than 1 percent of the country's total. ble to offset natural subsidence. In the 144-centimeter rise assumed in On the basis of the limited data availa- the worst case, however, 16 percent of ble, the Woods Hole researchers have the nation's land would be lost. And in concludedthe.;.the increasing with- the really worst case, local sea level rise drawal of groundwater in Bangladesh is would be 209 centimeters and 18 per- affectingsubsidencerates.Between cent of the habitable land would be 1978 and 1985, the number of wells under water. (See Table 4-2.) As a re- drilled in the country increased at least sult, more than 17 million people would sixfold; more than100,000 shallow become environmental refugees. tubewells and 20,000 deeper ones were By the year 2100, the really worst case counted. Sediment samples suggest that scenario shows that 35 percent of the groundwaterwithdrawalmayhave nation's populationsome 38 million raised subsidence to at least twice the peoplewould be forced to felocate. natural rate. The economic effects would be devastat- 1 Half the country lies at elevations of ing. Because nearly a third of Ban- less than five meters. Loss of land under gladesh's gross national product is real- the 13-centimeter rise in the best case ized within the land area that could be (74) State of the World 1989 lost, an already poor country would have percent of the country's land is cul- to accommodate its people on a far tivated and settled, supporting a popula- smaller economic base.59 tion of 1,800 people per square kilome- The combined effects of warmer cli- ter. The Nile River and itsdelta, mates and higher seas will make tropical accounting for nearly all the country's storms more frequent and more destruc- productive land, is Egypt's economic tive, raising the toll in lives and further lifeline. decreasing the habitability of coastal Damming has virtually reduced the areas. Cyclones originating in the Bay of Nile'scontribution of sediment and Bengal before and after the rainy season fresh water to the Mediterranean to a already devastate the southern part of trickle. The Woods Hole study points Bangladesh on a regular basis. On aver- out that because the Nile has been age, 1.5 severe cyclones now hit the dammed, only the "worst" and "really country each year. Storm surges as much worst" cases are relevant for Egypt, as six meters higher than normal can since most of the sediment that would reach as far as 200 kilometers inland. offset subsidence of the delta is trapped Total property loss from storms in the upstream. Consequently, sea level rise region between 1945 and 1975 has been would range between 101 and 144 centi- estimated at $7 billion, and some 300,- meters by 2050, rendering up to 19 per- 000 lives were lost in 1970 when surge cent of Egypt's already scarce habitable waters covered an estimated 35 percent land unlivable. of Bangladesh. The imp.4ct of stronger If the higher increment were realized, and more frequentstorms on this more than 8.5 million people would be densely populated country is unthink- forced to relinquish their homes to the able. sea and Egypt would lose 16 percent of its gross national product. By 2100, sea level rise would range between 257 and Bangladesh as it is known today 332 centimeters, inundating up to 26 may virtually cease to exist. percent of habitable land and affecting an equal portion-24 percentof both population and domestic economic out- Wl.ere will those displaced by rising put.Several shallow,brackish lakes seas go? Moving farther inland, millions along the coast, accounting for half the of environmental refugees will have to nation's fish catch, would also be endan- compete with the local populace for gered." scarce f..)od, water, and land, perhaps Although neitherBangladesh nor spurring regional clashes. Moreover, ex- Egypt is likely to markedly influence isting tensions between Bangladesh and global emissions of greenhouse gases or its large neighbor to the west, India, are sea level rise, they each wield considera- likely to heighten as the certain influx of ble control over local sea levels. Devel- environmental refugees from the former opment policies chosen in the near fu- rises. Eventually, the combination of ris- turewilldeterminetheratesof ing seas, harsher storms, and degrada- degradation and subsidence of these re- tion of the Bengal delta may wreak so spective deltas. much damage that Bangladesh as it is In 2100, cartographers will likely be known today may virtually cease to exist. drawing maps with new coastlines for Egypt's habitable area is even more many countries as a result of sea level densely populated than Bangladesh. By rise. They may also make an important and large, Egypt is desert; less than 4 deletion: by that year, if current projec- Abandoning Homelands (75) tions are borne out, the Maldives may tion patterns and industrial policies that have been swallowed up by the sea. This ignore environmental limits have fouled small nation, a series of 1,190 islands in the planet with everything from toxic atolls, is nowhere higher in elevation wastes to greenhouse gases. In the Third than two meters. A mean sea level rise of World, population growth, poverty, and equal height would submerge the entire ill-conceived development policies are country. With a one-meter rise, well the root cause of environmental degra- within the expected increment of the dation. The large and growing number next century, a storm surge would, in the of refugees worldwide that has resulted words of President Gayoom, be "cata- from these trends is living evidence of a strophic and possibly fatal." Other such continuing decline in the earth's habita endangered areas include the Pacific is- bility. lands of Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Mar- Environmental refugees have become shall Islands.6t the single largest class of displaced per- Industrial nations, heavily reliant on sons in the world. They fall into three the burning of fossil fuels over the past broad categories: those displaced tem- century, must assume the primary re. porarily because of a local disruption sponsibility for global warming and its such as an avalanche or earthquake; consequences. And while they are in a those who migrate because environmen- far better financial position than devel- tal degradation has undermined their oping countries to undertake the reme- livelihood or poses unacceptable risks to dial technological measures necessary to health; and those who resettle because save coastal areas and inhabited land land degradation has resulted in desert- (thereby mitigating the problem of envi- ification or because of other permanent ronmental refugees), these actions will and untenable changes in their habitat. cost them dearly. The Dutch spent tens Although precise numbers are hard to of billions of dollars over the past three fix due to lack of data, it appears that this decades building dikes and pumping sys- last groupthepermanently dis- tems to hold back the sea. They will have placedis both the largest and the fast- to spend at least $5 billion more by 2040 est growing. Until sea level rise over- simply maintaining this system to save takes it, land degradation will remain the their delta region as sea levels rise. single most important cause of environ- Large though these expenditures are, mental refugees. As it occurs in stages, they are trivial compared with what the moving from moderate to severe desert- United States, with more than 19,000 ification, it produces refugees in both kilometers of coastline, will have to the second and third categories. spend to protect its territorial integ- Current trends are likely to worsen rity.62 over the next few decades unless society acts to combat the problems underscored by the creation of environmental refugees. More and more land will be rendered unproductive or uninhabit- AYARDSTICK OF able, whether through desertification, HABITABILITY toxic pollution, or unnatural disasters. By the middle of the next century, the On every continent, the living patterns combined number of environmental ref- of people are at odds with natural sys- ugees from all these and the inevitable tems. In industrial countries, consump- rise in sea level because of global warm.

1 aI 1.; (76) Stale of the World 1989 ing will probably exceed the number of and current wars in its impact on human- refugees today from all other causes by ity. The growing number of environ- a factor of six. mental refugees today is already a rough The vision of tens of millions of per- indicator of the severity of global envi- sons forced to abandon their homelands ronmental decline. This yardstick may is a frightening prospect, one without be imprecise but its message could not precedent and likely to rival most past be clearer. 5 Protecting the Ozone Layer Cynthia Pollock Shea

When British scientists reported in 1985 it is present at only a few parts per mil- that a hole in the ozone layer over Ant- lion. Sunlight-triggered chemical reac- arctica had been occurring each spring tions constantly replenish ozone above since 1979, the news came as a complete the tropics and global air circulation surprise. Although the theory that a transports some of it to the poles. group of widely used chemicals called By the Antarctic spring of 1987, the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) would average ozone concentration over the somedayerodeupperatmospheric South Pole was down 50 percent. In iso- ozone had been advanced in the mid- lated spotsithad essentially disa0- seventies, none of the models had pre- peared. Although the depletion was dicted that the thinning would first be alarming, many were convinced that ..he evident over the South Polenor that it thinning was seasonal and unique to would be so severe. Scientists were baf- Antarctica, a phenomenon attributable fled: What was threatening this key life- to altered atmospheric chemistry and to perplexing polar air circulation.2 support system? And how many other A scientific report issued in March surprises lay in store?' 1988 shattered this view: more than 100 Ozone, the three-atom form of oxy- international experts reported that the gen,. is the only gas in the atmosphere ozone layer around the entire globe was that prevents harmful solar ultraviolet eroding much faster than any mode: had radiation from reaching the surface of predicted. Between 1969 and 1986, 'he the earth. Most of it is found at altitudes average global concentration of ozone in of between 12 and 25 kilometers, but the stratosphere had fallen by approi- even there, at its greatest concentration, mately 2 percent. The magnitude of the An expanded ver$ion of this chapter appeared as decline varied by latitude and by season, Worldwatch Paper 87. Protecting Life on Earth: sttp.s with the most heavily populated regions to Save Me Ozone Layer. of Europe, North America, and the So- (78) State of the World 1989 viet Union suffering a year-round deple- The fundamental links between CFCs, tion of 3 percent and a winter loss of 4.7 halons, and ozone depletion are no long- percent.5 er in doubt. Currently available control As ozone diminishes in the upper at- technologies and stricter standards gov- mosphere, the earth receives more ul- erning equipment operation and main- traviolet radiation, which promotes skin tenance could reduce CFC and halon cancers and cataracts and depresses emissions by some 90 percent. But ef- human immune systems. Reduced crop fective government policies and industry yields, depleted marine fisheries, materi- practices to limit and ultimately phase als damage, and increased smog are also out chlorine and bromine emissions attributable to higher levels of radiation. have yet to be formulated. Encouraging The phenomenon is global and will af- steps have been taken by some coun- fcct the well-being of every person in the tries, particularly in Scandinavia, and by world. some corporations. But just as the effects of ozone depletion will be felt worldwide, a lasting remedy to the prob- In 1984 the ozone hole was larger lem must also be global. than the United States and taller than Mount Everest.

Compounds containing chlorine and THE OZONE DEPLETION bromine, which are released from indus- PUZZLE trial processes and products and then move slowly into the upper atmosphere, In 1985, a team led by Joseph Farman. of are considered the primary culprits. the British Antarctic Survey, startled the Most of the chlorine comes from CCs; world by reporting a 40-percent loss in the bromine originates from halons used the springtime ozone layer over Antarc- in fire extinguishers. Spurred to action tica. Using equipment developed in the by the ozone hole over Antarctica, 35 twenties, the team discovered the lowest countries have signed an international concentration of ozone ever recorded on agreementthe Montreal Protocol earth. Although Sherwood Rowland and aimed at halving most CFC emissions by Mario Molina of the University of Cali- 1998 and freezing halon emissions by fornia at Irvine had predicted a decline 1992. Although an impressive diplo- in global ozone back in 1974, the inter- matic achievement and an important national scientific community was skepti- first step, the agreement is so riddled cal; why hadn't state-of-the-art mor6or- with loopholes that its objectives will not ingdevices aboard sophisticated be met. Furthermore, scientific findings satellites detected the drop?5 subsequent to the negotiations reveal Closer examination revealed that sat- that even if the treaty's goals were met, ellite sensors had in fact recorded the significant further deterioration of the decline, and even flagged the lowest val- ozone layer would still occur. The fact ues, but that scientists had fallen behind that CFCs and halons are also "green- in processing the voluminous data. In- house gases" and that global warming deed, computer archives showed that in may already be under way (see Chapter 1984 the previously undetected ozone 1) strengthens the need to further con- hole was larger than the United States trol and eliminate emissions.4 and taller than Mount Everest.6 Protecting the Ozone Layer (79) Faced with evidence of a phenomenon clouds, low concentrations of nitrogen that had not been predicted by atmo- oxides, and, most important, high con- spheric models, scientists scurried to ex- centrations of active chlorine. plain the cause and to determine if more The pieces of the puzzle started to fall widespread depletion, outside of Ant- into place. During the long, sunless Ant- arctica, was likely. Numerous theories arctic winter (from about March to Au- based on both chemical and natural gust), air over the continent becomes causes were put forth. A reassessment of isolated in a swirling polar vortex that satelliteandterrestrial data was causes temperaturesto drop below planned, along with ground- and air- minus 90 degrees Celsius. This is cold based expeditions to the continent. enough for the scarce water vapor in the Scientists on the first Antarctic expedi- dry upper atmosphere to freeze, forming tion arrived in late August 1986, hoping polar stratospheric clouds. Chemical re- to determine quickly whether the ozone actions on the ice crystals convert chlo- hole was caused by natural forces or by rine from nonreactive form such as hy- manufactured chemicals. The secret was drogen chloride and chlorine nitrate not easily revealed. Several experiments into molecules that are very sensitive to cast doubt on the theories that blamed sunlight. In addition, gaseous nitrogen solar cycles and the upward movement oxides able to inactivate chlorine are of tropospheric air, but tests to confirm transformed into frozen, and therefore chemical destruction theories were in- nonreactive, nitric acid.9 conclusive. Team leader Susan Solomon The first spring sunlight releases the carefully summed upthefindings, chlorine, and the virulent ozone-destroy- "Based on the existing theories, chlorine ing chain reaction proceeds unimpeded is the only one we can't rule out. ...We for five or six weeks. The reactions trans- believe that a chemical mechanism is form two molecules of ozone into three fundamentallyresponsible forthe molecules of ordinary oxygen, and the hole."' chlorine survives unscathed, ready to at Another, much larger expedition com- tack more ozone. Experiments con- posed of 150 scientists and support per- ducted by James Andcrson and his col- sonnel representing 19 organizations leagues at Harvard University found that and four nations was planned for 1987. chlorine monoxide levels in the most dis- Based ir. Punta Arenas, Chile, the NOZE turbed regions of the hole were up to 500 II (National Ozone Expedition) team times higher than normal Throughout conducted satellite,aircraft, balloon, the hole,as chlorine monoxide in- and ground measurements.Satellite creased,ozoneconcentrationsde- data, available within 24 hours, helped creased. (See Figure 5-1.) 10 researchers direct two specially retrofit- Diminished ozone in the vortex means ted planes into the center of the hole.a that less incoming solar radiation is ab- Monitoring equipment detected that sorbed, thereby perpetuating lower tem- the average ozone concentration in a peratures and the vortex itself. In 1987, hole twice as large as the United States the vortex did not break down until early dropped by nearly half from August 15 December, a month later than usual. In to October 7. In some areas within the addition, the hole was some 8 degrees hole, ozone had vanished completely. Celsius colder at an altitude c.i 15 kilo- The scientists attributed the decline to a meters tnan it was in 1979. Polar strato- combination of factors: unique meteoro- spheric clouds were more pervasive and logical conditions present in Antarctica, persistent In essence, the ozone hole the presence of 1.-..siarstratospheric was feeding on itself" (801 Siam of the World 1989 Chlorine reau of Meteorology wonders if "it's monoxide (ppb) Ozone (ppm) possible that this is the first sign of de- 2.75 1.6 pletion extending over Australia.'919 t.4-js----'--N 2.50 Ozone While many of the meteorological and 1.2 - 2.25 chemical conditions conducive to ozone depletion are unique toAntarctica. 1.0- 100 ground-based research in Greenland in 0.8.Source: Anderson, 1.75 the winter of 1988 found elevated chlo- Harvard 0.6 1.50 rineconcentrationsanddepressed ozone levels over the Arctic as well. Al- 0.4- 1.25 though a strong vortex does not develop 0.2 - Chlorine monoxide 1.00 there and temperatures are not as low, ,--.----- polar stratospheric clouds do form.14 . . , 1 63°S 64° 66° 68' 70° 72°S To find out more about the atmo- Latitude. approximate spheric chemistry of the Arctic, the U.S. Flom 54. Atmospheric Concentration of National Aeronautics and Space Admin- Chlorine Monoxide and Ozone by Latitude, Southern Hengsphem, 1987 istration (NASA) sent teams to Sta- vanger, Norway, and Ellesmere Island, The phenomenon of global warming Canada, in early 1989. Instruments on paradoxically encourages the process. the ground analyzed the chemical com- Higher concentrations of greenhouse ponents of the atmosphere, while similar gases (including CFCs, which contribute instruments aboard specially equipped about 15-20 percent of the total) are nes sampled the air in the ice clouds, thought to be responsible for an in- ,,,au equipment aboard the Nimbus-7 crease in the earth's surface temperature satellite examined reflected sunliOt. and a decrease in the temperature of the Ground-based measurements were to be stratosphere. Methane, one of the pri- gathered simultaneously by the Danes in mary greenhouse gases, is a significant Greenland and by the Soviets over their source of stratospheric water vapor. northernmost territories. The Soviet Coldertemperaturesandincreased Union also planned to make aircraft ob- moisture both facti.tate the formation of servations at about the same time.' s stratospheric clouds.12 The importance of cloud surface Since the ozone hole cannot get much chemistry in the destruction of ozone deeper, some fear it may spread out- was not realized until 1986. Now its role ward, encompassing larger areas of Ar- is viewed as fundamental, and some sci- guntina and Chile and expanding above entists postulate that sulfate chemical portions of Australia, Brazil, New Zea- surfaces may host the same catalytic land, and Uruguay. These areas may also chlorine reactions that occur over Ant- suffer when the vortex breaks up and its arctica. Sulfate aerosols from volcanoes ozone-depleted air diffuses throughout and biological processes are present in the lower southern hemisphere. In De- the atmosphere atalllatitudes,at cember 1987, three out of five Australian heights of 15 to 22 kilometers. They are ozone-monitoring stations observed a especiallyprevalentoverthemost sharp drop in ozone. The abnormally densely populated areas of the northern low values persisted for three weeks over hemisphere, perhaps indicating the in- Melbourne, resulting in the lowest De- volvement of sulfur emissions from cember mean ozone levels on record. human activities. If these chemicals are Roger Atkinson of the the Australian Bu- capable of hosting the same catalytic re-

.1 95 Protecting the Ozone Layer (8r) actions, global ozone depletion may ac- ter of weeks the report's conclusions celerate even more rapidly than an- were widely accepted, and public debate ticipated.16 on the issue was building to a new fever A greater understanding of and con- pitch. Suddenly. ozone depletion was sensus about ozone depletion was made real, no longer just a theory, and people possible by the release of the NASA around the globe knew just how bad the Ozone Trends Panel report on March problem overhead had become. 15, 1988. More than 100 scientists from 10 countries spent 16 months reviewing the published literature and performing Ozone losses were documented a critical reanalysis and interpretation of nearly all ground-based and satellite- around the globe, not just at the derived ozone data. Their purpose: to poles. eliminate any errors caused by improp- erly calibrated instruments.17 Ozonelossesweredocumented Scientists were alarmed not only by around the globe, not just at the poles; the documented damage to the ozone the blame, particularly for the Antarctic layer, but by the inadequacy of their ozone hole, was firmly placed on chloro- models to predict it. Ozone depletion is fluorocarbons. The panel reported that occurring far more rapidly and in a dif- between 30 and 60 degrees north, where ferent pattern than had been forecast. most of the world's people live, total- Projections of the amount and location column ozone had decreased by 1.7-3.0 of future ozone depletion are still highly percent between 1969 and 1986. Fur- uncertain. Although the fundamental ther, "ozone decreases were most pro- mechanisms of ozone depletion are gen- nounced in winter,ranging from 2.3-6.2 erally understood, the quantitative effect percent (depending on latitude), and of cloud surface chemistry, the rate of those winter changes were higher than various chemical reactions, and the spe- predicted by atmospheric models."Is cific chemical pathways are still in doubt. Because monitoring stations artt not According to Sherwood Rowland, one of as prevalent in the southern hemisphere, the first to sound a warning, policy deci- the panel cautioned that data for regions south of 30 degrees north were not as sions now and for at least another reliable, nor could seasonal variations be decade must be made without good accurately determined. The report fur- quantitative guidelines of what the fu- ther stated that while the problem was ture holds.2° worst over Antarctica during the spring, "ozone appears to have decreased since 1979 by 5 percent or more at all latitudes south of 60 degrees south throughout the year." The hole alone covers ap- EFFECTS OF ULTRAVIOLET proximately 10 percent of the southern RADIATION hemisphere.19 The report's findings startled policy- Tanned, wrinkled, and leathered skin, makers, industry representatives, and re- certain eye disorders, and brittle plastics searchers around the world. Prior to are all caused by ultravblet (UV) radia- March 15, the phenomenon of global tion that retches the earth's surface. At ozone depletion and the role of CFCs present, ozone absorbs much of the ul- had been hotly contested. Within a mat- traviolet radiation that the sun emits in (82) State of the World 1989 wavelengths harmful to humans, ani- are Argentinians, Australians. Chileans, mals, and plants. (The most biologically and New Zealanders who live in areas damaging wavelengths occur within the under the springtime reach of the Ant- 290-320 nanometer band, referred to as arctic hole. Members of the U.S. Na- UV-B.) But, according to uncertain pro- tional Science Foundation are working jections from computer models, erosion with colleagues in Argentina and Chile of the protective ozone shield could re- to measure the increased amount of in- sult in 5 to 20 percent more ultraviolet coming UV radiation." radiationreachingpopulatedareas Melanoma. a more deadly form of skin within the next 40 yearsmost of it in cancer. already attacks 26,000 Ameri- the UV-B band." cans annually andresultsin 8.000 In light of the findings of the NASA deaths. Melanoma represents only 4 per- Ozone Trends Panel, the U.S. Environ- cent of all skin cancers, but is responsi- mental Protection Agency (EPA) dam- ble for 65 percent of all skin cancer age projections cited in this section are deaths. Although the tie between mela- conservative. Although the EPA ranges noma and increased UV-B levels is less are based on current control strategics. clear, EPA estimates that ozone deple- they assume ozone depletion levels of tion will lead to an additional 31.000 to 1.2-6.2 percent. Yet, all areas of the 126,000 cases among U.S. whites born globe have already suffered depletion before 2075, resulting in an additional beyond this lower bound. At extreme 7,000 to 30,000 fatalities.2s latitudes, depletion has exceeded EPA's Melanoma incidence and mortality are most realistic upper bound. Although already rising in all Caucasian popula- these damage estimates are the best cur- tions studied. In Australia, melanoma rently available, it is prudent to consider deaths have risen fivefold over the past them on the low side.22 50 years. In the United States, the num- Globally. skin cancer incidence among ber of cases has increased 83 percent Caucasians is already on the rise, largely over the past seven years. In other coun- because of more outdoor activity, but it tries. the incidence is increasing at 3-7 is expected to increase alarmingly in the percent annually. Unlike basal and squa- presence of more UV-B. Some 600,000 mous cell carcinoma, melanoma appears new cases of squamous and basal cell to be associated with acute UV radiation carcinomathe two most common but exposure. such as severe sunburns.26 rarely fatal skin cancer typesare re- Under the same EPA scenarios, from ported each year in the United States 555,000 to 2.8 million Americans born alone. Worldwide. the number of cases before 2075 will suffer front cataracts is at least three times as high. The inci- who would not have otherwise. Victims dence is closr:ly tied to cumulative expo- will also be striken earlier in life, making sure to ultraviolet radiation." treatment more difficult. Cataracts, a Each l-percent drop in ozone is pro- clouding of the lens that blurs vision, can jected to result in 4-6 percent more he removed in a relatively simple opera- cases of these types of skin cancer. tion, but if left untreated can result in Ozone depletion is expected to cause 3 blindness. The surgical procedure is million to 15 million new cases in Ameri- performed routinely in industrial coun- cans born before 2075: some 52,000 to tries, but victims in the developing world 252,000 of those patients are likely to die are less likely to have access to, or funds from the disease. Most at risk are those for, the operation." with light coloring who live nearest the Medical researchers also fear that equator. Also particularly susceptible UV-B depresses the human immune sys- Proteding the Ozone Layer (83) tem, lowering the body's resistance to Botanists are worried becauseal- attacking organisms, making it less able though plants can be bred for many to fight the development of tumors, and traits, including UV radiation tolerance, rendering it more prone to infectious rapid ozone depletion could overwhelm diseases, such as herpes. The response the capacity to evolve protective mech- may even decrease the effectiveness of anisms. As a consequence, those varie- some inoculation programs, such as ties most resistant to the radiation would those for diphtheria and tuberculosis. be the ones to thrive, not necessarily Instead of building an immune response those with the greatest economic value to the antigen, the patient might develop or nutritive content. So far, only 4 of the a full-fledged case of the disease. In de- 10 major terrestrial ecosystem types veloping countries, particularly those have been examined; tropical forests, near the equator that are exposed to rangelands, and wetlands have yet to be higher UV-B levels. parasitic infections studied.31 could become more common.29 Unlike skin cancer, which predomi- nantly affects whites, a lowered immune Increased exposure to radiation response is likely to affect everyone. In- may decrease photosynthesis. dividuals already immtinosuppressed, such as transplant patients or those with AIDS, could be at greater risk due to Aquatic ecosystems may be the most additive effects. Although the extent of threatened of all. Phytoplankton, the immunosuppression cannot yet be quan- one - celled microscopic organisms that tified. some evidence suggests it could engage in photosynthesis while drifting i be induced with much lower doses of UV on the ocean's surface, are the backbone radiation than those required to cause of the marine food web. Because they cancer. This may mean that doses too require sunlight, already the limiting low to cause a sunburn could lower the growth factor in high-latitude ocean body's resistance to disease. An Aus- areas, they cannot escape incoming ul- tralian study has already measured im- travioletradiation and continue to munological effects in sunbathers.29 thrive. Yet if they remain at the water's Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are surface, studies show that a 25-percent also affected. Screenings of more than reduction in ozone would decrease their 200 different plant species, most of them productivity by about 35 percent.32 crops, found that 70 percent were sensi- Experiments with marine diatoms, a tive to UV-B. Increased exposure to ra- minute algae, show reductions in bio- diation may decrease photosynthesis, mass, protein, and chlorophyll at UV-B water use efficiency, yield, and leaf area. levels corresponding to ozone reduc- Soybeans, a versatile and protein-rich tions of 5 to 15 percent, A significant crop, are particularly susceptible. Alan destruction of phytoplankton and its Teramura, at the University of Mary- subsequent decomposition could even land, discovered that a simulated ozone raise carbon dioxide levels, speeding the loss of 25 percent reduced the yield of warming of the atmosphere.33 one important soybean species by as Zooplankton and the larvae of several much as 25 percent. He also found that important fish species will be doubly plant sensitivity to UV -B increased as the strained: they too live on the water's sur- phosphorus level in the soil increased, face and their sole food supply, phyto- iidicating that heavily fertilized agricul- plankton, will be scarcer. Preliminary tural areas may be the most vulnerable.30 studies indicate that sunlight is essential (84) Slate of the World 1989 to the larval stage of growth, yet there is Most economically valuable plant spe- no adaption or flight mechanism to re- cies are affected. including cotton. soy- spond to increased UN' radiation. For beans. corn. and wheat: the first two are some shellfish species, a 10-percent de- especially sensitive. A Resources for The crease in ozone could result in up to an Future study found that reducing rural 1$- percent increase in the number ofab- ozone levels by 10 percent in the United normal larvae. A study of anchovies cal- States would have resulted in a $700- culated that 8 percent of the annual lar- gaitt in 1986.36 vae population would be killed off by a Animal studies suggest that chronic 9-percent decrease in ozone.34 exposure to ozone causes permanent Commercial fish populations already damage to and premature aging of the threatened by overfishing may have lungs. It also impairs that organ's ability more difficulty rebuilding due to effects to fight off bacterial infections and to of increased UV-B. Most worrisome to clear out toxic particles. Doctors now many marine biologists is how the spe- warn that everyone, not just people with cies composition of ocean environments impaired respiratory functions, is threat- will change. Some species will undoubt- ened." edly be more vulnerable to increased UN' More than 60 U.S. cities still do not radiation than others and the changes meet air quality regulations issued dur- arc likely to be dramatic. Exposure re- ittg the seventies: air quality is similarly sulting from ozone loss of 10 percent poor in Western Europe, and often corresponds to moving 30 degrees worse in the urban areas of developing closer to the equatorlike moving New countries. The problem is exacerbated York City to Caracas, Venezuela. Ulti- by the fact that ground-level ozone is a mately, entire cco3ystems may become greenhouse gas and that the warmer more unstable and less flexible. temperatures induced by the green- Increased UV-B levels also affect syn- house effect will result in even greater thetic materials. Plastics are especially formation of ozone-containing smog. In vulnerable. Studies conducted for EPA addition, stratospheric ozone decline is estimated that %vithout added chemical predictedto increasetropospheric stabilizers, the cumulative damage to amounts of hydrogen peroxide, an acid just one polymer, polyvinyl chloride, rain precursor.38 could reach $4.7 billion by 2075 in the Most of the research to date on the United States alone.35 effects of increased ultraviolet radiation Ozone, the same compound that acts has been conducted by U.S. government as a protective shield in the stratosphere, agencies. Annual funding has recently is a noxious pollutant at ground level. been boosted to some $15-20 million, Ironically,destruction of the upper but there are still many unanswered ozone could augment the damage done questions. Ironically, the most uncer- by the lower. As more UV radiation tainty surrounds the effects of increased reaches the earth's surface, the photo- UV-B on the immune system and on chemical process that creates smog will aquatic and plant life, where we have the accelerate. greatest potential to harm our health Studies show that ground-level ozone, and food supplies. West Germany also the main component of smog, retards has an extensive UV-B effects program, crop and tree growth, limits visibility. financed by the Ministry of Research and and impairs lung functions. Recent re- Technology. Joint programs under the search indicates that the biological risks auspices of the European Community are higher than previously believed. are to commence shortly.33 4

Protecting the aane Layer (85) Despite the many uncertainties re- to the product as Styrofoam. the Dow garding future ozone depletion levels. Chemical Company trademark. From the incremental amount of UV-11 that 1945 to 1950. total production of CFCs will reach the earth's surface. and overall doubled.42 biological effects of these changes. one Over the ensuing years. new chemical point is certain: the risks to aquatic and formulations were discovered, and the terrestial ecosystems and to human versatility of the various CFCs seemed health are enormous. The overwhelm- almost endless. CFC-11 and CFC-12 ing conclusion of EPA studies is that were first used as aerosol propellants "the benefits of limiting future CFC/ during World War H in the fight against Ha lon use far outweigh the increased malaria. In the postwar economy, they costs these regulations would impose on were employedinaerosol products the economy." In the United States ranging from hairspray and deodorant alone. the present value of the benefits to furniture polish. By the late fifties, a of controlling emissions through the combination of the blowing agents CFC- year 2075 is estimated at $6 trillion 11 and carbon dioxide was used to make some 240 times greater than the costs.40 softer furniture cushions, carpet padding. and automobile seats. Many social and technological developments in recent decades were as- sisted. at least in part, by the availability of CFCs. Huge chillers made it possible CHEMICAL WONDERS, to build and cool shopping malls, sports ATMOSPHERIC VILLAINS arenas, and high-rise office buildings. Air conditioning brought comfort, busi- Chlorofluorocarbonsare remarkable ness. and new residents to regions with chemicals. They are neither toxic nor warm climates. Automobile air condi- flammable at ground level. as demon- tioners, now installed in 80 percent of strated bytheir discoverer Thomas the cars sold in the United States, put the Midgley, Jr., in 1930 when he inhaled nation on wheels for summer vacations. vapors from a beaker of clear liquid and And healthier, more interesting diets are then exhaled to extinguish a candle. A now available because three fourths of safe chemical that was inexpensive to the food eaten in the United States is produce was exactly what the refrigera- refrigerated at some point in the production industry was looking for, and CFCs tion and distribution chain.43 soon became a universal coolant, mar- Even the computer revolution was keted by E.I. du Pont de Nemours & aided by CFCs. As microchips and other Company under the trademark Freon. components of electronic equipment be- (In chemical shorthand, it is referred to came smaller and more sophisticated. as CFC-12.) International production the need to remove the smallest con- soared, rising from 545 tons in 1931 to taminants became critical. CFC-113 is 20,000 tons in 1945.41 used as a solvent to remove glue, grease, Another use for the chemical. as a and soldering residues and to leave a blowing agent in rigid insulation foams, clean. dry surface. And, as is the case was discovered in the late forties. In this with so many of the CFCs, the chemical application, liquid CFC-12 is vaporized is versatile enough to be used on metals into a gas that forms lightweight, closed and plastics and to dry-clean clothes, cell bubbles that are poor conductors of largely replacing more-toxic chlorinated both heat and cold. Consumers referred solvents. CFC-113 is now the fastest (86) State of the World 1989 growing of the CFC family, and world- CFC-11 and CFC-I2 accounts for at wide production exceeds 160,000 ions least three quarters of this total. Only per year.4 4 some two dozen firms produce CFCs, Following the energy crises of the sev- but production data are scarce and not enties, industrial, commercial, and resi- totally reliable. Companies claint that dential customers looked for new ways suclt numbers are proprietary and that to trim their heating and electric bills. having them publicly available would put Demand for rigid foam insulation, sonic the manufacturersatacompetitive types blown with CFC-I1 and others disadvantage. Unfortunately, attempts with CFC-12, soared. In 1985, rigid foam accounted for two thirds of the in- to analyze and regulate markets are sulation put into new U.S. commercial thwarted by lack of information.47 buildings. half the insulation in new sin- Total per capita use of the three most gle-family houses, and one third of the common CFCs is highest in the United home re-insulation market. Appliance Statesat 1.2 kilogramsbut Europe manufacturers also set to workand are and Japan are not far behind. In most of now required by U.S. lawto boost the the rest of the world, consumption rates energyefficiency of their products. are far lower. Indeed, Americans use six Today, the foam walls of a household times the global average, Consumption refrigerator contain five tintes as much patterns also differ by region. Aerosols CFC (one kilogram) as is used for refrig- account for 37 percent of European CFC erant.'" use; mobile air-conditioning and other An industry-sponsored group, the Al- refrigeration constitute 39 percent of liance for Responsible CFC Policy, pegs use in the United States; and solvents, the market value of CFCs produced in primarily for the electronics industry, the United States at $750 million annu- constitute 39 percent of Japanese CFC ally, the value of goods and services di- use;t8 rectly dependent on the chemicals at $28 From 1931 through 1986, virtually all billion, and the end-use value of in- the CFC-1 I and CFC-12 produced was stalled equipment and products at $135 billion. Products that currently depend Table 5-1, Global CFC Use, by Category, on the chemicals are ubiquitous: the 1985 United States alone has 85 million household refrigerators and 60 million Share of auto air conditioners. in addition, bil- Use Total lions of foam packaging containers are (percent) produced each year to keep fast foods hot, eggs cushioned, and meats dis- Aerosols 25 Rigid Foam Insulation 19 played.46 Around the world, aero$ ols are still Solvents 19 Air Conditionirg 12 the largest user of CFCs, arcounting for Refrigerants 8 25 percent of the total. (See Table 5-1.) Flexible Foam Rigid foam and solvent applications, the 7 Other 10 fastest growing uses for CFCs, are tied for second place. In 1987, global CFC Total 100 production (excluding China, the Soviet souRct: Daniel F. Kohler et al.. Projections of Con- Union, and the Eastern bloc) surpassed sumption of Products ('sing Chlorofluorocarbons in Devel- the peak set in 1974. and came close to opingCountnes (SantaMonica,Calif.:Rand 1 million tons. Combined production of Corporation, 1987).

10 i. Protecting the Ozone Layer (87) sold to customers in the northern hemi- are used for fighting fires: halon 1211 is sphere. Since raw chemicals and prod- employed in handheld extinguishers and ucts made with and containing CFCs halon 1301 is used in total flooding sys- were then exported, in part to develop- tems designed for enclosed areas with ing countries, final usage was not quite valuable contents, such as computer as lopsided, and the Third World ac- room!, telephone exchanges, .-nuseums, counted for 16 percent of global CFC and bank storage vaults. consumption in 1986. (See Table 5-2.) As populations, incomes, and the manufacturing base grow in developing coun- The latest ozone measurements re- tries, CFC use there is projected to flect only the response to gases fise.49 released through the early eight- Unlike most chemicals, CFCs are %tot ies. broken down in the troposhere, the layer of air surrounding the earth. Instead, they waft slowly upward and after six to eight years reach the upper layer of the Halons were developed by the U.S. atmosphere,thestratosphere. Once Army Corps of Engineers at the end of World War II as a way to fight fires in there. the chemicals can survive for up to i 100 years. When they are broken down. tanks and armored personnel carriers. each chlorine atom released is capable of Because they are nontoxic and can be destroying tens of thousands of ozone applied directly to sensitive equipment moleculesbeforeiteventually gets without causing damage or leaving a res- washed out of the atmosphere. idue, they have become the favored Halons are also inert at ground level. chemicalforfightingfires. Demand They contain bromine, a more effective quadrupled between 1973 and 1984 and ozone destroyer than chlorine, and are is still growing at a rate of 15 percent long-lived in the atmosphere. Halons annually.50 alarming though the latest ozone Table 5-2. Global CFC Use, by Region, measurements arc. they reflect only the 1986 response to gases released through the early eighties; gases now rising through Share of the lower atmosphere will take six to Region Total eight years to reach the stratosphere. An (percent) additional 2 million tons of substances 29 containing chlorine and bromine are United States tripped in insulation foams, appliances, 41 and fire-fighting equ,pment." Other Industrial Countriest Chlorine concentrations in the upper atmosphere have grown from 0.6 to 2.7 Soviet Union, Eastern Bloc 14 parts per billion in the past 25 years. Under even the most optimistic regula- Other Developing Countries 14 tory scenarios, they are expected to tri- 2 ple by 2075. Bromine concentrations are China and India projected to grow considerably faster 'European Community accounts for more than exhibiting a tenfold increase from their half, followed by Japan, Canada. Australia, and current 1 part per trillion level despite others. soURCE: "The Ozone Treaty: A Triumph for All." an anticipated freeze on consumption.52 Update from State. May/June 1988. CFCs and halons are insidiously and

I 0 : (88) State of the HOW 1989 inexorably destroying the planet's pro- technical and economic feasibility of lim- tective ozone shield. Biological systems iting emissions from specific markets. around the globe will soon start to suffer Immediate reductions in CFC emis- adverse effects, but the real losers will be sions can be achieved by banning CFC future generations who inherit an im- propellants in aerosols and by eliminat- poverished environment and wonder at ing rapid evaporation of cleaning sol- the filly of their ancestors. vents. Intermediate savings are obtaina- ble by capturing the blowing agents used to inflate flexible foams, by plugging the leaks in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems, and by recovering the re- REDUCING EMISSIONS frigerants drained during system re- charging. Long-term reductions involve Determining the largest sources of po- alternative product disposal methods, tential ozone depletion is the first step use of substitute chemicals, and devel- toward curbing emissions. To do this re- opment of new process technokgies. quires knowing how much of each When concern about the ozone layer ozone-depleting chemical is currently first emerged in the seventies, some used, its emissions profile, and the uses industrial-country governments re- to which it is put. (See Table 5-1) Only sponded. Since 455,000 tons (56 per- then can individual countries assess the cent) of CFC-1 I and CFC-12 produced Table 5-3. Use and Emissions Profiles of Commonly Used Chemicals, 1985 Annual Share of Atmospheric GrowthContribution Chemical Emissions Lifetime! Applications Rate to Depletions (thousand tons) (years) (percent) (percent) CFC- l 1 238 76 Foams. Aerosols, 3 26 Refrigeration CFC-12 412 130 Air Conditioning. 5 45 Refrigeration. Aerosols. Foams HCFC-22 72 ;),) Refrigeration. Foams 11 0 CFC-113 138 02 Solvents 10 12

Halon 1211 3 12 Fire Extinguishers 23 1 Halon 1301 3 101 Fire Extinguishers n.a. 4 Methyl 474 8 Solvents 7 5 Chloroform Carbon 66 67 Solvents 8 Tetrachloride 'Time it takes for 63 percent of the chemical to be washed out of thy atmosphere.2Coltimu doe; not total 100 due to rounding. sconces: James K. Hammitt et al.. "Future Emission Scenarios for Chemicals that May Deplete Strato- spheric Ozone. .Vature. December 2-1, 1987: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Protection of Stratosphenc Ozone. Volume H. Part 1 (Washington. D.C.: 1987): Douglas Cogan. Stones rn a Clots Muse: CFCs and Ozone Depletion (Washington, D.C.: Investor Responsibility Research Center. 1988). Protecting the alone Layer (89) in 1974 were used in aerosols, spray cans switch to non-CFC aerosol propellants were an obvious target. Under strong by 1993. France, Japan, and the nations public pressure. Canada. Norway. Swe- of Eastern Europe and the Third World den. and the United States banned CFC are the only major users that have not propellants in at least 90 percent of their yet announced control measures.56 aerosolproducts. Because hydrocarbons. the replacement propellant. are less expensive than CFCs, the net sav- Worldwide, aerosol cans are still ings to the U.S. economy was $165 mil- the largest source of CFC emis- lion in 1983 -alone. The European Com- nuinity adopted a different approach. In sions. 1980. the member countries agreed not to increase their already excessive capacity to produce these two CFCs and called Despite rapid growth. CFC-113 emis- for a 30-percent reduction in their use in sions may be sonic of the easiest and aerosol propellants by 1982 (based on most economical to control. Since the 1976 consumption figures).55 chemical is only used to clean the final Cumulative reductions in CFC- l 1 and product and is not incorporated in it, CFC-12 emissions due to lowered use in emissions are virtually immediate: three aerosols in the United States and the quarters result from vapor losses, the re- European Community amount to 2 mil- mainder from waste disposal. A U.S. ban lion and 501.000 tons. respectively, the on land disposal of chlorinated solvents equivalent of six years of current CFC- that took effect in November 1986. con- 11 production and one year of CFC-12 sideration of similar regulations else- output. These figures are based on the where, the high cost of incinerating assumption that CFC use in aerosols CFC-113 (becauseitcontainstoxic would have'remained at the 1974 peak in fluorine),andacceleratingconcern the United States and the 1976 peak in about ozone depletion have all created the European Commtinity.54 strong incentives for solvent recovery Worldwide, aerosol cans are still the and recycling.57 largest source of CFC emissions, con- Since CFC-113 costs about twice as tributing 224.000 tons annually. some much as other CFCs. investments in re- 33 percent of combined global emis- covery and recyling pay off more quickly. sions of CFC-11 and CFC-12. Rising Recycling of CFC-113 is now practiced concern about ozone depletion among on-site at many large comptrer compa- consumers and governments should nies. AnIBMplant outside of Stuttgart, soon curtail this use. And because some West Germany, has installed a recycling nations took the lead. economical and system that recovers 70-90 percent of often less e.pensive substitutes are al- the plant's solvents. Similar rates are ready widely available.55 being achieved by American Telephone Denmark banned aerosol propellants and Telegraph (AT&T) in the United in 1987. and voluntary industry cutbacks States. Smaller electronics firms, for of 90 percent by the end of 1989 were whom in-house recycling is not econom- announced recentlyin Belgium, the ical, can sell their used solvents to com- Netherlands, Switzerland. the United mercial recyclers or the distributors of Kingdom, and West Germany. British some chemical manufacturers.58 and Swiss manufacturers will also label Rapid progress in emissions reduc- their products so consumers will know if tions over the past several years bodes they are ozone-friendly. The Soviet wellformoreshort-termsavings. Union has declared itsintention to Hirotoshi Goto. director of the Straw- (90) State of the World 1989 spheric Protection Program inlapan, ex- charges. Another recommendation, to pects industries that use CFC solvents to prohibit venting of the refrigerant di- achieve recycling rates of 95 percent. rectly to the atmosphere, requires the Such firms account for some 40 percent use of recovery and recycling technolo- of total Japanese CFC consumption." gies. Capturing CFC emissions from flexi- Careful study of the automobile air- ble foam manufacturing can also be ac- conditioningmarketintheUnited complished fairly quickly, but requires States, the largest user of CFC -12 in the investment in new ventilation systems. country, has found that 34 percent of Current production processes result in emissions can be traced to leakage, 48 the complete and immediate release of percent occur during recharge and re- the blowing agent to the atmosphere. pair servicing, and the remainder hap- (When rigid foams are made, 90 percent pen through accidents, disposal. and of the CFC blowing agent remains in the manufacturing, in that order. Equip- closed cells of the product.) New suction ment with better seals and hoses would systems coupled with carbon adsorption curb emissions and result in less need technologies are able to recover from 40 for system maintenance.62 to 90 percent of the CFCs released." When car air conditioners are ser- One technology operating in both viced, it is now standard practice to drain Denmark and Norway traps CFCs at the the coolant and let it evaporate. Several blowing stage and recovers 40-45 per- companies have seen the folly of this ap- cent of total emissions. A more compre- proach and designed recovery systems, hensive system designed by Hyman De- known as "vampires." The refrigerant is velopment in the United Kingdom is pumped out of the compressor, purified, able to recover almost twice as much. and reinjected into the automobile by Traditionally, flexible foam is cured in equipment costing several thousand dol- an open room for several days, allowing lars. Because the coolant contains few CFCs to waft from the product. In the contaminants, up to 95 percent of it can Hyman process, curing time is reduced be reused. Refrigerant can also be stored to 40 minutes, occurs in an enclosed and transported to a central recycler, area, and the CFCs released are cap- though this option appears to offer less tured by the ventilating system. Uni- promise." foam, a Swiss company, is marketing a Markets for the on-site equipment in- similar system able to recover 85 percent clude mass transit companies, airplane of the blowing agent for future use." manufacturers, government agencies, Another area that offers significant automobile dealerships, and high-vol- savings, at a low cost, is improved de- ume service stations. The U.S. automo- sign. operating. and maintenance stan- bile industry iscurrently developing dards for refrigeration and air condition- quality standards for recovery and recy- ing equipment. These uses account for cling operations and should have the in- 30 percent of combined CFC-11 and frastructure and perhaps the equipment CFC-I2 consumption. Codes of practice in place by the 1989 air-conditioning to govern equipment handling are being season. If the industry is not recycling at drawn up by many major trade associa- a satisfactory level by 1992, EPA will tions. Key among the recommendations make the practice mandatory." are to require worker training, to limit To recover CFCs from junked au- maintenance and repair work to author- tomobiles and other appliances years ized personnel, to install leak detection after they are produced requires either a systems, and to use smaller refrigerant collection system or a bounty scheme to 1i Protecting the Ozone Layer (91) encourage reclamation by salvagers. chlorine-free HFC-134a. Du Pont has al- Several towns in West Germany are ready announced plans to build a com- starting to collect discarded household mercial plant costing $25 million in Cor- refrigerators in order to keep the CFCs pus Christi, Texas. The company says in the refrigerant and the insulating annual production will exceed 1,000 foam from reaching the atmosphere. tons starting in 1990. The plant will be The refrigerants will be recycled and the the fourth Du Pont facility for HFC- foam will be incinerated in high-temper- 134a, and the seventh in the company's ature furnaces. Although a few other overall program to develop CFC alterna- countries are contemplating this ap- tives. The substitute will likely sell for $2 proach, most view it as economical only a kilogram, some seven times the price for large commercial and industrial of CFC-12.67 units, not for the small volumes that would be recovered from household appliances.68 Several towns in West Germany are Over the longer term, phasing out the starting to collect discarded house- use and emissions of CFCs will require hold refrigerators. the development of chemical substitutes that do not harm the ozone layer. The challenge is to find alternatives that perform the same function for a reasonable Work is also under way to develop cost, that do not require major equip- new chemical blowing agents for both ment modifications, that are nontoxic to flexible and rigid foams. Union Carbide workers and consumers, and that are en- recently announced that it has found a vironmentally benign. substitute chemical for blowing the soft Petroferm, a small company in Fer- polyurethane foam used infurniture nandina Beach, Florida, has developed a padding. According to the company, its substitute solvent called BioAct EC-7. new product. Ultracel, is already com- Made with terpenes found in citrus fruit mercially available and could eliminate rinds, the chemical is biodegradable, 70 percent of the CFCs employed in the nontoxic. andnoncorrosive.BioAct flexible foam industry. Dow Chemical, a EC-7 has been tested by AT&T at three leading manufacturer of rigid foam insu- of its plants and was found to be effective lation, has announced that it will stop and economicallycompetitive,even using regulated CFCs by 1989.68 counting the cost of replacing cleaning Many of the major chemical manufac- machinery. AT&T, which used some turers are placing their bets on HCFC- L400 tons of CFC-113 in 1986, expects 22. -123, -141b, and -142b. The added to replace about one quarter of its CFC hydrogen atom makes the ozone deple- use with BioAct EC-7 over the next two tion potential of these compounds only years. An outside analysis estimates that 5 percent that of the chemicals they the new compound could substitute for would replace. Their cost. on the other 30-55 percent of total projected CFC- hand, would be three to five times 113 use in the U.S. electronics indus- greater.69 try.66 One major delay associated with the Du Pont and imperial Chemical In- contmercialization of new chemical com- dustries (ICI), the world's two largest pounds is the need for extensive toxicity CFC producers, appear convinced that testing; tests are run for five to seven the replacement chemical for CFC-12 in years. To expedite this process, 14 CFC air conditioners and refrigerators will be producers from Europe, Japan, South

1Is (92) State of the World 1989 Korea, and the United States have de- Solar Energy Research Institute indi- cided to pool their efforts in a multintil- cates that vacuum panels take up less lion-dollarjoint testing program. space than foams and make appliances HCFC-123 and HFC-134a are the first more energy-efficient.73 two chemicals chosen to undergo long- Halon emissions appearrelatively tem testing. HCFC-22 has already easy to curtail, although there are no passed. Results will be shared among promising substitutes on the horizon. members and, if promising, ought to be Most halons produced are never used, passed along to regulatory agencies to they just need to be available in case of speed the approval process." emergency. At present, halon flooding Some alternative foam-blowing agents systems are tested when first installed by are already available and have been used releasing all the baton in the system. Dis- for years. These include methylene chlo- charge testing now contributes more ride, pentane, and carbon dioxide. Al- entissions than fire fighting does. Using though still viewed as possible substi- alternative chemicals or testing proce- tutes, each has drawbacks. Methylene dures that are acceptable to the insur- chloride is a carcinogen and difficult to ance industry and eliminating accidental dispose of, pentane is highly flammable discharges would cut annual emissions and contributes to photochemical smog, by two thirds.74 and carbon dioxide results in denser Another large source of Italon emis- flexible foams and has poorer insulating sions is fire fighter training. The U.S. properties, meaning that rigid foams military, with one of the world's largest made with it alone must be 40-50 per- programs, has recently introduced the cent thicker to perform the same func- use of simulators that do not require action.7t tual chemical release. ICI is establishing In sonte instances, new product de- a recycling service for halon 1211 so that signs can eliminate or reduce the need contaminated supplies, and those that for CFCs and substitute chemicals while would otherwise be disposed of, can be providing additional benefits. In au- recovered." tomobiles, for instance, side vent win- The approach taken to reducing CFC dows, window glazings that slow solar andItalonemissionsvariesgreatly absorption, and new solar ventilation among nations and industries. Compa- systems can reduce interior heating and nies in Sweden, for example, view the curb or eliminate the need for air-condi- development of alternative products and tioning, thereby saving energy. Helium processes as an economic opportunity. refrigerators, long used for space and They are poised to seize new interna- military applications, have been adapted tional markets in a changing global for civilian use in trucks and homes. economy. On the other hand, the major Cryodynamics, a New Jersey company, chemical producers in France, apan, the will soon produce 9 million helium- United Kingdom, the United States, and cooled refrigerators in Shanghai. The West Germany have traditionally viewed units use less than half the energy of emission controls as a threat to their in- conventional systems. In Japan, ammo- ternational competitiveness. They have nia refrigerants are used in energy-effi- been loath to go along with unilateral cient commercial buildings.72 control measures for fear of losing their Rigid foam insulation in refrigerators market share. and freezers may ultimately be replaced The time has come to ask if the func- by vacuum insulation, the type used in tions performed by CFCs are really nec- thermos bottles. Work done at the U.S. essary and, if they are, whether they can Protecting the Ozone Layer (93) be performed in new ways. For example, those from the so-called Toronto group must all computer chips be cleaned? For who kept pushing for tougher regula- those that require cleaning, are water- or tions; and to the many nongovernmental alcohol-based solvents sufficient? The organizations and scientists who worked U.S. Army and Navy will not allow the to build support among policymakers question to be asked, They require that and the general public. electronic components be cleaned with In order to take effect by the target CFCs, thereby discouraging manufac- date of January 1989, the protocol must turers from exploring alternatives." have been ratified by 11 countries repre- If all known technical control mea- senting at least two thirds of interna- sures were used, total CFC and halon tional CFC consumption. By mid-No- emissions could be reduced by approxi- vember 1988, 14 countries had already mately 90 percent. Many of these control approved the treatyCanada, Egypt. strategies are already cost-effective, and Kenya, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, more will become so as regulations push New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Portu- up the price of ozone-depleting chemi- gal, the Soviet Union, Sweden, Uganda, cals. The speed with which controls are and the United States. But the two-thirds introduced will determine the extent of consumption requirement will not be ozone depletion in the years ahead and met until the treaty is ratified by the en- the date when stratospheric healing will tire European Communitya step the begin. group has pledged to take. Unfortunat- ley, even this level of support will not be enough to protect the fragile ozone layer.78 Ozone does notdifferentiatethe MOVING BEYOND MONTREAL source of chlorine and hromine emissions. All nations, including those in the On September 16, 1987, after years of Third World, must rapidly step up their arduous and heated negotiation. the reduction efforts. Developing countries Montreal Protocol on Substances that are an important part of the control Deplete the Ozone Layer was signed by strategy because of their large and grow- 24 countries. (As of mid-November ing populations and their rapidly in- 1988, that total had increased to 35 creasing CFC use. Some of the key de- countries.) Provisions of the agreement veloping countries are Brazil, China, include a freeze on CFC production (at India, Indonesia, and South Korea. In 1986 levels) by 1989, a 20-percent de- China, for example, only 1 household crease in production by 1993, and an- out of 10 now owns a refrigerator, but other 30-percent cut by 1998. HaIon the government hopes that by 2000 production is subject to a freeze based every kitchen will have one. South Korea on 1986 levels starting in 1992.77 and Brazil are world-class automobile An international document calling for manufacturers." a 50-percent reduction in the production Some of the provisions that enhance of a ubiquitous, invisible chemical feared the treaty's appeal to signatories include responsible for destroying an invisible extended deadlines, allowances to ac- shield is unprecedented. The achieve- commodate industry restructuring, and ment is a tribute to the United Nations loose definitions of the products that can Environment Programme that spear- legitimately be traded internationally. headedtheeffort;togovernment The Soviet Union and Eastern bloc negotiators from all countries. especially countries, for example, are permitted to (91) Slag of the World 1989 carry out the erection or expansion of by more than 2 percent, and by consider- any production facilities that are part of ably more close to the poles. A recent theircurrent five-year plans before EPA report concluded that by 2075, adoptingrestrictions,provided total even with 100-percent global participa- consumption will not exceed 0.5 kilo- tion in the protocol, chlorine concentra- grams per capita. Developing countries tions in the atmosphere would triple.82 have been given a 10-year grace period The agreement will not a rest depletion, past the industrial-country deadline, merely slow its acceleration. In light of during which CFC use can grow to meet these findings, itis obvious that the "basic domestic needs," up to a limit of treaty and other regulatory measures 0.3 kilograms per capita (one third the need to be strengthened. current per capita level in some indus- Curtailing chlorine and bromine emis- trial countries). After that, they too must sions enough to prevent widespread en- freeze and then cut their use of con- vironmental damage requires a virtual trolled chemicals by 50 p...k.c.n.80 phaseout of CFC and halon emissions by all countries as soon as possible. Re- leases of other compounds containing The Montreal agreement will not chlorine and bromine not currently cov- arrest depletion, merely slow its ac- ered under the treaty also need to be controlled and in some cases halted. Ac- celeration. cording to EPA analyses, 45 percent of projected chlorine growth in the stratosphere by 2075 will stem from allowed The treaty also grants a country that use of controlled compounds, 40 per- enacts more than the prescribed mea- cent will come from chlorine-containing sures the right to transfer production ca- chemicals that are not covered, and 15 pacity to low-volume producers. And al- percent will be from the emissions of thoughimports of chemicalsfrom nonparticipant nations.83 nonsignatory countries are to cease Methyl chloroform and carbon tetra- within a year after the treaty takes effect, chloride together contributed 13 per- trade in products containing or manu- cent of total ozone-depleting chemical factured with CFCs is permitted until at emissions in 1985. As the use of con- least the mid-nineties. The cumulative trolled chemicals diminishes, the relative effect of these loopholes means that, and absolute contribution of these two even with widespread participation. the uncontrolled compoundswillgrow. protocol's goal of halving worldwide Methyl chloroform is widely used as a CFC use by 1998 will not be metal solvent, especially for metal cleaning, Signatories of the Montreal Protocol and carbon tetrachloride (though used were operating under the assumption primarily to manufacture CFCs in west- that implementation of the treaty would ern industrial countries) is still used as a result in a maximum ozone loss of 2 per- solvent in Eastern bloc and developing cent by the year 2075. Furthermore, be- nations. Although methyl chloroform cause negotiations preceded results of emissions currently exceed those for any the 1987 Antarctic expedition, delegates of the CFCs. its short atmospheric life- were effectively told not to consider the time of eight years makes it one of the hole when adopting their positions. Yet few chemicals whose control would pro- less than one year later, there was wide- vide short-term results.84 spread agreement that average global As noted, it is technically feasible to ozone concentrations had already fallen reduce CFC and halon emissions by 90

1 Protecting the Ozone Layer (95) percent by 1995. The challenge is for and incineration technologies for rigid governments to muster the political will foams. Sweden is currently responsible to phase out CFC and baton emissions as for less than 1 percent of global CFC soon as possible. use, however, so its approach will have Timing is crucial. Analysts at EPA ex- to be adopted by many more countries amined the effects of a 100-percent CFC before a significant dent is made in glob- phaseout by 1990 versus a 95-percent al emissions." phaseout by 1998. Peak chlorine concen- Priming the research and develop- trations would differ by 0.8 parts per bil- ment pump is a role for governments lion, some one third of current levels. around the world. Although chemical Under the slower schedule, atmospheric manufacturers are spending some $100 cleansing would beconsiderably million annually to develop safe chemi- delayed: chlorine levels would remain cal substitutes, they have no interest in higher than the peak associated with the alternative product designs that would accelerated schedule for atleast 50 cut into their markets.88 years." Research on new refrigeration, air- Sweden is the first country to move conditioning, and insulation processes is beyond endorsing a theoretical phase- the most worthy of government support. out. In June 1988 the parliament, after Phasing out the use of CFCs in these extensivediscussionswithindustry, applications would protect the ozone passed legislation that includes specific layer and delay the greenhouse effect deadlines for banning the use of CFCs in directly by reducing the emissions of new products. Consumption isto be CFCs that absorb infrared radiation, and halved by 1991 and virtually eliminated indirectly by promoting more energy- t.y 1995. Sterilization uses and the small efficient processes that would trim car- quantity remaining in aerosols were to bon dioxide emissions. Cooling cars, be phased out by the end of 1988. Use in offices, and factories with equipment de- packaging materials is to cease a year pendent on chemicals and powered by later. CFCs used as an engineering sol- fuels that warm the earth is ludicrous. vent and for blowing flexible and ex- Unfortunately. international funding to truded polystyrene foams are to be dis- develop new approaches is probably less continuedbytheendof1990. than $5 million." Blow-molding of rigid foams. dry-clean- As mentioned in the text of the Mon- ing, and coolant uses are to cease by the treal Protocol, results of this research, as end of 1994 at the latest. Under no cir- well as new technologies and processes, cumstance may CFCs be replaced with need to be shared with developing coun- chemicals that pose environmental or tries.Ozone depletion and climate health hazards.86 warming are undeniably global in scope. If it becomes possible to phase any of Not sharing information on the most re- these uses out earlier than planned, in- cent developments is like refusing to tell dustry will be required to do so. In the the driver of a car that is about to hit you interim, the Swedish government plans where the brakes are. And it ensures that to offer incentives and provide financial environmentally damaging and out- support for the research and develop- dated equipment will continue to be ment of recovery and recycling tech- used for years to come, further eroding nologies, of alternative products, and of the technology base in the Third World. means to keep discarded CFCs from Developing countries are also the most reaching the atmosphere. The latter in- vulnerable to the effects of ozone deple- cludes collection systems for coolants tion because they rely primarily on fish

110 (96) Slate of the World 1989 for their protein and have inadequate sponse is crucial. The ultimate goal of health care facilities. negotiators has always been the eventual Under the existing treaty, a scientific phaseout of all ozone-depleting chemi- assessment of current ozone depletion cals. The question is, How quickly are is scheduled to occur from April to Au- countries willing to act in order to pro- gust of 1989. This is to be followed in tect human health, food supplies, and April1990 by a meeting of treaty the global climate? negotiators to consider the evidence The scientific fundamentals of ozone and decide what further actions are depletion are known. Although current called for. Given recent developments, models of future change vary in their Mostafa Tolba, Executive Director of predictions, the evidence is clear enough the United Nations Environment Pro- to warrant an immediate response. Be- gramme, has been petitioned by many cause valuable time was lost when gov- to expedite the process and is in favor ernments and industries relaxed their of doing so. The United Kingdom. the regulatory and research efforts during United States, West Germany, and pos- the early eighties, a crash program is sibly Japan and the Soviet Union ap- now essential. Given the relatively high pear amenable to taking faster action. degree of understanding and consensus Franceisthe only major producer surrounding ozone depletion, the sup- country still dragging its feet." port that can be garnered for putting an As with so many of the major environ- end to chlorine and bromine emissions mental problems now facing policymak- may be indicative of the political will to ers, the timing and fortitude of their re- protect the earth's habitability. 6 Rethinking Transportation Michael Renner

The individual mobility, convenience, and assured role in society were hardly and status bestowed by the private pas- questioned. Even worries about escalat- senger car hold a seemingly unbeatable ing gas prices and future fuel availability allure. In 1987, a record 126,000 cars subsidedinthe eightiesalmostas rolled off assembly lines each working quickly as they had emerged. Car sales day, and close to 400 million vehicles recovered, driving is up, and affluent clog the world's streets today.1 customers are once more shopping for But the car's utility to the individual high-performance cars. stands in sharp contrast to the costs and The motor vehicle industry's apparent burdens that society must shoulder to success in dealing with the challenges of provide an automobile-centered trans- the seventies has obscured the adverse portation system. Since the days of long-term trends of automobile-cen- Henry Ford, societies have enacted a tered transportation. Rising gasoline steady stream of laws to protect drivers consumption will before long put increased pressure on oil production ca- from each other and themselves. as well pacities. In addition, as more and more as to protect the general public front the people can afford their own cars and as unintended effects of massive automo- mass motorization takes hold, cor.ges- bile use. Legislators have struggled over don becomes an intractable problem. the competing goals of unlimited mobil- And motor vehicles are important con- ity and the individual's right to be free of tributors to urban air pollution, acid the noise, pollution. and physical dan- rain, and global warming. gers that the automobile often brings. Society's interest in fuel supply secu- Prior to the seventies, the auto's utility rity, the integrity of its cities, and protec- An expanded version of this chapter appeared as tion of the environment calls for a funda- Worldwatch Paper 84.Re:hulking the Role of the Auto- mental rethinking of the automobile's mobile. role. Stricter fuel economy and pollution

1 i 2 (98) State of the World 1989 standards are the most obvious and im- about 50 million vehicles in the immedi- mediate measures that can be adopted. ate postwar period to 386 million in But they can only be part of the answer. 1986 (see Table 6-1), with still no sign of In the years ahead, the challenge will be a real leveling-off. But if the pre-1973 to develop innovative transportation pace of additions to the car fleetnot policies. just replacementshad held, total passenger cars would now number close to 600 million. The United States dominated the early stages of the automotive age. Only WHITHER THE AUTOMOTIVE during the sixties and seventies did AGE? Western Europe andjapan, respectively, begin to catch up. The lure of owning a During the postwar period, the automo- private passenger car has since proved bile industry experienced its most dra- irresistible everywhere. matic and sustained expansion, but- Until the seventies, the Soviet Union tressed by massive highway construction and Eastern Europe gave production of projects, fueled by cheap and abundant oil, and riding a wave of unprecedented Table 6-1. Automobiles in Use, affluence in industrial countries. Produc- Worldwide and United States, 1950-87 tion grew a rapid 6 percent annually. from under 10 million vehicles a year in Year Worldlinked StatesU.S. Share the fifties to almost 30 million in 1973.2 (million The first oil crisis, however, brought passenger cars) (percent) on an era of unprecedented volatility. (See Figure 6-1.) Global production did 1950 53 40 75 reach a new peak of 32.9 million vehicles in 1987. Yet had the pace recorded be- 1955 73 52 71 tween 1950 and 1973 continued, annual output would now be twice as highs 1960 98 62 63 The world's car fleet has grown from 1965 140 75 54 Million Vehicles 1970 195 89 46 36 32- 1975 260 107 41 28 - 1980 321 122 38 24 - 1981 331 123 37 20- 1982 340 124 36

16 -1 1983 352 127 36 1984 365 128 35 12 - 8 1985 375 132 35 4- 1986 386 135 35 1987 139 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 soma.: Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associa- Fitton 6-1. World Passenger Car Production, tion, World Motor rehielt Data. 1988 Edition and 1950417 Farts and Figures '88 (Detroit, Mich.: t988). Rethinking Transportation (99) trains, trucks, and buses priority over au- countries where appetites for cars were tomobiles. But in response to growing whetted by soaring oil revenues in the consumer pressure, passenger car pro- seventies and low gasoline retail prices. duction more than tripled in the seven- Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico together ties. Between 1970 and 1985, the Soviet account for almost half the cars in the and East European car fleets grew five- developing world.' foldto 27 million vehicles. Long wait- Yet the emergence of the debt crisis in ing lists indicate there is still enormous 1982, coming on the heels of surging oil unmet demand. Access to car ownership prices in the seventies, shattered the remains regulated by bureaucratic allo- auto industry's expectations that the cation and heavy taxation.4 bulk of future growth would occur in General Secretary Gorbachev'sat- Latin America. The debt crunch com- tempts atperestroika,the restructuring of pelled these nations to marshall their fi- the Soviet economy, may well lead to a nancial resources for debt servicing, stronger emphasis on consumer goods, precipitating major recessions. Soaring with the automobile near the top of the interestrates and falling real wages list. The Soviet Union is currently study- eroded buying power. Car purchases in ing plans to double its car production of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico fell by half 1.4 million vehicles per year. In Eastern in the eighties, and the once dynamic Europe, on the other hand, an un- Brazilian auto industry stumbled from resolved debt crisis may keep a lid on boom to bust and back. (See Figure expansion of car ownerships The governments of many developing Brazil and Mexico embraced automo- countries are also anxious to encourage bile exports as an avenue to escape the the development of auto-centered trans- debt morass. First encouraged in 1972 portation systems because they consider by generous government incentives to them an indispensable cornerstone of pav for ballooning oil imports, exports industrial development. Car ownership took a rising share of Brazil's car produc- in the Third World has risen sharply, tion and soared to 40 percent in 1987, averaging an annual growth rate of I I when domestic demand collapsed. In percent in the first half of the seventies Mexico, the share of production sold and 8 percent in the second half, but Thousand only 5 percent in the eighties.6 Vehicles With only a few exceptions, car owner- 1,000 ship in the Third World is unlikely to reach the levels in industrial countries. goo 4 Brazil Low per capita incomes mean buying and maintaining a car is simply beyond the reach of most people, The highly skewed wealth distribution patterns in most countries may foster a small, privi- legedclasswithample purchasing power, but they effectively limit the number of potential car owners, Third World car ownership is concen- Sourm MVMA trated mainly in the newly industrializing 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 countries of Latin America and South- Figure 62. Car Production in South Korea east Asia and in the major oil-exporting and Brazil, 1970-87 (zoo) State of the World 1989 abroad has grown from less than 5 per- Between 1970 and 1986, the United cent in 1982 to 48 percent in1987. States alone added as many cars to its These two countries are joined by India, roads as the entire Third World now Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thai- possesses. 12 land in growing competition in the world export market.9 South Korea, by contrast, has always depended on sales overseas, which currently claim two thirds of domestic pro- SEARCHING FOR duction. With close to 800,000 units producedin1987, South Koreais ALTERNATIVES TOOIL emerging as a serious challenger to Japan in the small-car market segment. Because cars run almost exclusively on But car ownership at homecurrently petroleum-based fuels, the auto industry one auto for every 65 peoplehas been is understandably sensitive to changes in hobbled through high taxes on pur- the price and availability of oil. As a chases, registration, and gasoline and means of transportation, the automobile through low wages.'° is, after all, only as reliable as its fuel China and India together account for supplies. Since the first oil crisis, other 38 percent of the world's population, sectors of the economy have reduced but they own scarcely half of 1 percent of their reliance on petroleum. But no easy its automobiles. Until the late seventies, substitutes are available for automotive these governments assigned cars one of fuels. Thus, cars now account for a the lowest development priorities. Both, larger portion of oil demand than they however, have since embarked on poli- did at the time of the first oil crisis. Since cies that seek to emulate the motorized 1976, the United States has used more transport systems of the industrial West petroleum each year for transportation and to increase domestic car production than it has produced. In 1985, the trans- dramatically." port sector consumed 63 percent of the oil used in the United States (up from 50 percent in 1973), 44 percent of that used Cars now account for a larger por- in Western Europe, 35 percent in Japan, tion of oil demand than they did at and 49 percent in developing coun- the time of the first oil crisis. tries." The oil crises of the past 15 years reinforced the notion that a transport system Production and ownership are thus centered on the private passenger car still ovevhelmingly concentrated in ad- can impose tremendous costs on society, vanced industrial societies. They ac- whether in the form of escalating fuel count for only 16 percent of the world's import bills or huge expenditures of cap- population but 88 percent of the car pro- ital and resources to tap domestic fuel duction and 81 percent of the global sources. Higher prices made oil account fleet. (See Table 6-2.) Put differently, by for a rapidly growing share of total im- 1986 only a little more than 1 percent of ports of most countries. The average the population in developing countries fraction of Third World export earnings owned a car, compared with 40 percent used to pay for oil imports tripled during in the western industrial countries, and the seventies. By 1981, Brazil spent over with a world average of about 8 percent. half such earnings to pay for imported Rethinking Transportation (JO!) Table 6.2. Car Density, 1970-86, and Car Fleet in 1986, by Region

Density 1986 Region or Country 1970 1980 1986 Fleet (million (people per car) vehicles) United States 2.0 1.9 1.8 1:15 Western Europe 5.2 3,3 2.8 125 Oceania 4.0 3.:i 2.8 8 Canada 3,0 2.ti ,).,) I1 Japan 12.0 4.9 4.2 99

South Africa 12 12 1l 3 Eastern Europe 36 12 11 17 Latin America 38 18 15 06 Soviet Union 147 3° 24 1"

Asial 196 95 02 12 Africa? 191 111 110 5 India 902 718 554 1.4 China 27.707 18.673 1.374 0.8

World 18 14 1`? 3863 lExcluding japan. China. India.t'Excluding South Africa.3COlOttiiiduesIto3Itti to toialdue to rounding. sovitc.E: Worldwatch Institute. based on Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association.Feu% and FigutrA(De- troit. Mich.: various editions). oil. Kenya, South Korea, and Thailand $2 billion from $630 million in the spent close to one third and Bangladesh, preceding year.' two thirds.14 The dark clouds cast over the auto's Brazil, by far the Third World's larg- future by the two oil shocks in the seven- est car market and oil importer, saw its ties seemed to recede in theeighties.Car oil bill skyrocket from $280 million in sales quickly resumed growth as concern 1970 to $10.3 billion in 1980. Higher over oil prices and supplies faded from domestic oil production and a contro- memory. Cheaper gasoline served as a versial program to generate ethanol fuel catalyst for increased and faster driving. from sugar crops allowed the country to Global gasoline consumption resumed cut its reliance on imported oil by 60 its upward climb in 1983. (See Figure percent between 1979 and 1986. Yet, 6-3.) Unless car fuel efficiency is boosted providingthefuelfromdomestic further to offset these trends, gasoline sources carried a hefty price tag, requir- consumptionwillcontinuetorise. ing large-scale investment and govern- Growing demand will eventually put in- ment subsidies. The Brazilian govern- creased pressure on production capaci- ment has spent an estimated $8 billion to ties.16 prop up the country's ethanol industry Warnings of a renewed oil crisis and alone. When international oil prices col- concerns about the environmental ef- lapsed in 1986, annual subsidies grew to fects of gasoline use have revived inter-

1 ;i..).- (102) Stale of the World 1989 Billion fuels in large quantities would still re- Gallons quire large inputs of agricultural land. 240 Thus, transportation fuel needs could

200 come in conflict with food requirements, particular!), if both keep growing. The 160 drought that befell different parts of the world during the summer of 1988 dem- 120 onstrates how quickly surpluses can be transformed into shortages. (See Chap- 80 ter 3.) Coal and natural gas reserves are 40 plentiful enough to produce methanol Source: United Notions on a large scale in resource-rich coun- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 tries. Abundant as these sources may be, Figure 6.3. World Passenger Car however, ultimately they are as finite as Gasoline Consunipdon, 1950-86 petroleum. And their use on a large scale has serious implications for the trend to- est in alternative fuels. Attention cur- ward global warming, as discussed later rently centers on alcohol fuels (ethanol in this chapter. and methanol), natural gas, and, to a A major drawback of all alcohol fuels lesser degree, electricity. Alcohol fuels is that some 30-40 percent of the origi- can be derived from agricultural waste nal energy content of their potential and other biomass sources; methanol feedstocks (biomass, coal, and natural can also be produced from natural gas gas) is lost in the conversion process. and coal. Numerous studies suggest that the total Brazil's Proalcool program is widely re- amount of energy inputs to obtain gardedthe"successstory" of the ethanolincluding energy required to ethanol industry, despite the hefty gov- fuel farmers' vehicles, to produce fertili- ernment support required. Sugarcane- zer and pesticides, and to ferment and derived ethanol provided roughly half purify the alcoholmay be close to or the country's automotive fuel in 1986. even surpass the eventual energy out- The scope of Brazil's program, however, put's may not be readily replicable elsewhere, Using natural gas directly as an auto- because of either insufficient crop sur- motive fuel, either in compressed (CNG) pluses, or a lack of government commit- or in liquefied form (LPG), appears ment, or an automotive fleet that is sim- more practical than tapping it as a feed- ply too large. If corn were used as a stock for alcohol fuels because less of the feedstock, for example, almost 40 per- original energy is lost in the conversion cent of the entire U.S. annual harvest process. Today, more than 680.000 would have to be earmarked for ethanol CNG vehicles are on the road world- production in order to meet 10 percent wide, with a similar number expected of the nation's automotive fuel demand. over the next 10-15 years.t9 Sugar beets and, where it can be cul- In the more distant future, hydro- tivated, sugarcane are more efficient in genthe most common element in the converting sunlight into stored energy, universemay become a widely used and therefore promise greaterfuel fuel in either liquid or compressed gase- yields than corn or other grains.17 ous form. For environmental and supply But in most heavily auto-dependent reasons, hydrogen is best derived from countries, the production of alcohol water. Cost is still a major impediment to RethinkingTransportation 003) commercialization. and vehicle technol- in the United States today are almost ogy has not yet advanced beyond the twice as efficient as the gas-guzzling prototype stage. Canada, Japan, and behemoths of the early seventies; as a West Germany have made major com- result, the average fleet fuel usage rose mitments to promote hydrogen research from 13 miles per gallon (MPG) in 1973 and development. In the United States, to 18 MPG in 1986. (See Figure 6-4.)22 however, hydrogen has yet to attract New U.S. cars travel an average of 26 R&D funding commensurate withits miles per gallon, but continue to trail enormous potentia1.20 their European and Japanese competi- Electric vehicles promise higher en- tors, whose models achieve 30 MPG or ergy aficiency and quieter operation more. Due to lower efficiency and more than conventional internal combustion driving, the average North American car engines. Barring major breakthroughs still burns up more than twice as much in battery technology and cost, however, gas each year as its counterpart in Japan electric vehicles will likely be confined to or Western Europe. Annual gasoline market niches where performance and consumption per car in countries be- range criteria are less important than in longing to the Organisation for Eco- the overall passenger car market. More- nomic Co-operation and Develoment over, such vehicles can only be a viable (OECD) fell by one quarter between alternative if the fuels used in electricity 1973 and 1985. Thus, while the OECD generation are renewable. Solar power, fleet expanded by 45 percent, its total through the use of photovoltaic cells, is fuel consumption grew by only 4 per- one main candidate. Fuel cellswhich cent.23 convert the chemical energy in hydro- Fuel economy in the Soviet Union and gen, methanol. and natural gas directly East Germany is roughly on a par with into electrical energy without mechani- that in Western Europe. Information on cal lossescould some day hold the key fuel efficiency in developing countries is to making electric vehicles more accept- spotty; most cars there are either imported or engineered and designed by able.21 Alternative fuels have to overcome western car manufacturers. However. considerable odds if they are to make because on average they rely on older designs and because maintenance is more than just a dent in the motor fuel often poor, autos in the Third World are market. The most daunting obstacle is a "chicken and egg" dilemma: an infra- Miles Per structurefuels. vehicles, service sta- Gallon tionswill not spring up unless there is 30 adequate demand, while such demand is unlikely to materialize in the absence of an appropriate infrastructure. n

ENHANCING FUEL

EFFICIENCY Source DOE MVMA

After the first oil crisis, car companies 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 around the world took dramatic steps to Rowe 64. Fuel Cosithoptiou of U.S. boost fuel efficiency. New passenger cars Automobiles. 197048 (104) Slate of 11w World 1989 likely to be less efficient than those in wheel drive. Further gains will likely re- industrial countries," sult from greater substitution of lighter- Once the world passed the peak of the weight materials for steel and cast-iron second oil crisis, fuel economy goals components. These materials, in order swiftly lost their urgency. Since 1983. of their potential contribution to lighter gains in the United States and most cars, include magnesium, plastics, alumi- other OECD member countries have num, and high-strength low-alloy steel; fallen short of the impressive achieve- they offer strength, heat and stress re- ments between 1974 and 1982. More- sistance, and design flexibility compara- over, the growing popularity of light ble to conventional materials." trucks in the United Stateswhich are one-third lessfuel-efficient than new U.S. passenger carslimits the potential Even a highly fuel-efficient car is for future efficiencygains. Improve- inefficiently used when it carries ments in Europe and Japan have been only the driver. partly offset by consumers' growing preference for larger and more powerful vehicles.25 But the world could make much Due to low cost, plastics have exhib- ited the most dramatic growth of all new greater strides toward fuel efficiency. Al- automotive materials. In 1985, some though technical solutions seem almost 8-11 percent of the vehicle weight of invariably to generate the greatest ex- cars manufactured in Japan, the United citement and attention, simple human States, and West Germany was ac- adjustments could double efficiency vir- counted for by plastics; that share could tually overnight. For example. even a grow to 18-20 percent by early next cen- highly fuel-efficient car is inefficiently tury.29 used when it carries only the driver, as is Reducing the weight of a car allows the case for over half the auto trips made the use of smaller engines without hav- in the United States; 87 percent of all ing to sacrifice performance. Engine ef- trips have at most Iwo passengers. In ficiency can also be improved by running 1084, American cars used just as much the motor at more optimal loads, mini- energy for every passenger-mile of travel mizing energy loss through exhaust as in 1971.26 gases, and improving fuel combustion. Still, technical opportunities to im- Reducing engine warm-up time is an- prove efficiency are far from exhausted. other important goal since fuel efficiency Weight reduction and improvements in am drop by half when an engine is engine and transmission efficiency hold cold.99 the greatest promise. In addition, aero- Advanced engine designs such as the dynamics, tire rolling resistance, the en- adiabatic diesel (which minimizes heat ergy dissipation of the brakes, and the loss) and the stratified charge engine energy consumption of accessories merit (which features a "rich" air-to-fuel mix- further improvement." ture surrounding the spark plug while On average, a 10-percent weight re- maintaining an efficient and cleaner- duction will yield a 6-percent fuel econ- burning overall lean mixture) promise omy gain. Past fuel-economy improve- fuel economy improvements of 25-40 mentsintheUnitedStateshave percent.31 primarily been accomplished through Increases in the number of gears allow lowered weights and shifts to front- a motor to run at its most efficient speed. Rethinking TranSporlalion 005) Continuouslyvariabletranstnissions held a research lead in advanced fuel (CVTs) essentially give a car an unlim- efficiency projects such as energy stor- ited number of gears; they offer fuel sav- age systems and the lean-burn engine. ings of 20-24 percent, particularly in But with the advent of the oil glut. the urban,stop-and-go,driving. Japan's American car companies abandoned fuel Subaru. in its Justy subcompact model, economy as a strategic goal. At the same was the first to introduce CVT technol- time, U.S. government support for vari- ogy commercially, to be followed by the ous fuel economy R&D projects was ter- Fiat Uno and Ford Fiesta." minated or reduced by the Reagan ad- Energy losses due to braking and ministration. This shortsighted attitude idlingwhich occur frequently during was compounded by the administra- urban drivingcan amount to as much tion's rollback and proposed repeal of as one third of a vehicle's original kinetic federally mandated standards for new energy. Energy storage systems, such as carsan idea bound to decrease na- a flywheel device, together with a CVT tional security. contrary to government can alleviate this problem by capturing predictions." an engine's excess power whenever the Today, the Japanese and Europeans driving requirements are less than its are the pacesetters in the quest for output. This power can then be tapped higher fuel efficiency. Japanese firms at some other time, thereby enabling lead in developing lean-burn motors and smaller engines than in today's models. ceramic engines, and European firms are Researchers at the University of Wiscon- strong contenders in energy storage sys- sin hope to double fuel economy with tems. Fven inaerodynamics. where such a system." American companies are still ahead, a The most efficient cars currently avail- research lead has not translated into able are about twice as efficient as the practical advances. average new car on the road. At the top In keeping with Henry Ford II's 1971 of the list is a Japanese model, the Suzuki dictum that "mini-cars mean mini-prof- Sprint, which gets 57 MPG. More ad- its," General Motors and Ford prefer to vanced prototypes, such as the Peugeot concentrate on big cars. In the small-car ECO 2000, Toyota AXV, Volkswagen segment. all three U.S. companies in- E80, and Volvo LCP 2000, achieve any- creasinglyrely on "sponsored" im- where from 70 to over 100 MPG; Re- portsmarketing cars often designed, nault's VESTA scored a stunning 124 engineered, and manufactured abroad. MPG in test runs.34 As a result, they could find themselves The prospects that innovations cur- without a sufficient manufacturing base rently tested in prototypes will be com- to meet the demand for smaller cars mercialized in a timely fashion are not when it develops again." encouraging, however. Car companies One reason auto companies lag in around the world have responded to commercializinghighlyfuel-efficient lower oil prices by slowing down their technologies is the current lack of con- efforts to incorporate advanced fuel- sumer interest. In 1986, gasoline and economytechnologiesinmass-pro- motor oil accounted for only 15 percent duced cars. Instead, consumers are of- of total car operating costs per mile in fered styling changes and gadgetry. In the United States, down from 26 percent fact. "muscle cars"featuring eight cyl- in 1975. In addition, each fuel economy inders and high horsepowerare back increment yields proportionally smaller in style. savings. For someone driving 10,000 In the seventies, the United States miles a year, an improvement from 10 to

120 (ro6) State of the World 1989 20 MPG will save 500 gallons of fuel an- major air pollutants, especially in cities. nually; but doubling that to 40 MPG In OECD member countries, they con- promises "only" an additional savings of tribute 75 percent of carbon monoxide 250 gallons, and doubling again, a com- emissions, 48 percent of nitrogen ox- paratively meager 125 gallons.32 ides, 40 percent of hydrocarbons, 13 Fuel taxes, collected per unit of con- percent of particulates, and 3 percent of sumption, have had some success in re- sulfur oxides. Worldwide, the produc- straining gasoline consumption. But tion and use of automotive fuels ac- they have done so more by affecting counts for an estimated 17 percent of all driving patterns than by steering con- carbon dioxide (CO2) released from fos- sumers toward the most efficient cars. A sil fuels. Transportation is also the pri- tax levied on the sale of a new vehicle mary source of lead pollution. The ad- could shape consumers' purchasing de- versehealtheffectsofallthese cisions if it were tailored to the car's fuel pollutants are fairly well established, economy.33 though the threshold of effects remains Left to their own devices, both indus- uncertain.49 try and consumers will enjoy the free Perhaps more significant are the syn- ride currently afforded by low fuel prices ergistic effects. The best known and and will neglect fuel economy. Govern- most pervasive of these is photochemical ments need to adopt a strong frame- smogthe brown hazethatcauses worka setof new standards and healthdisorders,restrictsvisibility, taxesto boost fuel efficiency. Given the erodesbuildingsandmonuments, range of advanced technologies now in- reduces crop yields, and is at least partly stalled in prototypes, on the shelf, or on responsible for the massive forest dam- a drawing board, striving for 50 MPG in age afflicting central Europe. Ozone, the new cars by the end of the century is a most important component of smog, is reasonable goal. the product of complex reactions between nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons in the presence of sunlight.41 In 1986, between 40 million and 75 million Americans were living in areas IMPROVING AIR QUALITY that failed to attain National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone, carbon The most alarming effect of mass motor- monoxide, and particulates.If these ization may not be the depletion of fossil standards were in force elsewhere, they fuels but the large-scale damage to would routinely be exceeded in many human health and the natural environ- cities: Athens, Budapest, Cairo, Mexico ment. Researchers at the University of City, New Delhi, and Sao Paulo are California estimate that the use of gaso- among those with the world's most pol- line and diesel fuel in the United States luted air.42 alone may cause up to 30,000 deaths Nitrogen and sulfur oxides, together every year. And the American Lung As- with unburnt hydrocarbons, are the sociation estimates that air pollution principal components of the phenome- from motor vehicles, power plants, and non commonly known as acid rain. Acid industrialfuel combustion costs the precipitationis destroying freshwater United States $40 billion annually in aquatic life and forests throughout cen- health care and lost productivity s9 tral Europe and North America and de- Cars, trucks, and buses play a promi- grading marine life in Atlantic coastal nent role in generating virtually all the waters.4 3

12: Rethinking Transportation (107) The most serious long-term conse- fished emission standards equivalent to quence of automotive emissions, how- those in force in the United Slates. Brazil ever, is the atmospheric buildup of CO2 initiated a 10-year phase-in of regula- and other "greenhouse gases"nitrous tins that, by 1997, will allow it to match oxide, methane, and ozone. There is current U.S. standards. Emissions in Ar- now virtual consensus among scientists gentina. India, and Mexico, on the other that if the concentration of CO2 in the hand,still go virtually uncoun oiled. atmosphere doubles from preindustrial Controls in the Soviet Union and East- levels, a substantial increase in average ern Europe arelimitedtoengine global temperature will occur. Indeed, modifications 46 such a rise is already under way. The impending climate change could shift global precipitation patterns, disrupt The most serious long-term conse- crop-growing regions, raise sea levels, quence of automotive emissions is and threaten coastal cities worldwide the atmospheric buildup of "green- with inundation. (See Chapter 1.)44 house gases." Among all the auto-generated air pollutants, lead has been most successfully fought. Since it was purposely added to gasoline as an octane enhancer, it could Within Western Europe, there is a just as well be eliminated from it. Reduc- widening gulf between the so-called Stockholm group and the European ing emissions of nitrogen and sulfur ox- Economic Community (EEC). Austria, ides, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland re- and particulates has proved more dif- quire installation of catalytic converters ficult because they are products of the and compliance with emission levels combustion process. The most sophis- comparable to those prevalent in the ticated exhaust control device at the mo- United States, EEC standards establish ment is the three-way catalyst, which separate categories for large, medium, reduces emissions of hydrocarbons, car- and small vehicles, and those for small bon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides. cars in particular remain very lenient, Over the life of a vehicle, today's cata- due to the opposition of the French and lysts cut emissions of hydrocarbons by Italian car industries. Because some 60 an average of 87 percent, of carbon percent of all cars on the road in Europe monoxide by 85 percent, and of nitro- are in that category, little reduction in gen oxides by 62 percent, But without emissions can be expected.47 proper maintenance, their effectiveness Europe has also been slow to control is likely to decrease rapidly. And cata- dieselpollutants,whichposeeven lysts are least effective when an engine is greater health risks than gasoline emis- colda frequent situation given the sions. Unlike in Japan and the United prevalence of short trips in OECD mem- States, diesels are enjoying rising popu- ber courstries.43 larity among European motorists, cap- Since the early sixties, the United turing 18 percent of the new-car market States has set the pace in establishing in 1986. EEC diesel emissions standards and tightening emission limits and pio- are still considerably less stringent than neering control devices. Japan's stan- those in the United States, which ironi- dards, implemented in 1975 and 1978, cally many European-produced vehicles are roughly comparable. Australia, Can- are already capable of meeting.48 ada, and South Korea recently estab- Emission controls have been most

A4 (108) State of the World 1989 successful in reducing carbon monoxide repeatedly rolled back the deadline for and hydrocarbons. During the seventies, meeting ozone standards. An effort to carbon monoxide emissions from mo- reauthorize a stricter Clean Air Act be- bile sources fell by more than 50 percent came deadlocked in the fall of 1988 due in Japan and by one third in the United to the opposition of the car, coal, and States. But during the eighties progress utilities industries.5' has come to a virtual standstill, although Tougher measures seem called for. emission levelsremain unacceptably EPA Administrator Lee Thomas has high; in most of Europe emissions are suggested that "the smog problem may rising along with increasing traffic vol- well need to be dealt with by reducing ume. A similar trend can be observed for the number of cars on the street, by tell- hydrocarbons. Nitrogen oxides emis- ing people they can't drive nearly to the sions stabilized or decreased modestly in extent they have in the past." Indeed, in the seventies and early eighties in the an effort to combat urban air pollution, United States. Japan, and some Euro- Athens,Budapest,Florence,Milan, pean countries. But in many nations, Rome, and Sao Paulo have recently im- these earlier gains are in danger of being posed restraints of varying strictness on wiped out by growing traffic and higher motorized traffic in their inner cities.52 travel speeds.4° Fuel efficiency has been largely neglected as a means of combating pollution.Doublingfueleconomywill Athens, Budapest, and Sao Paulo roughly halve CO2 emissions. Efficiency have imposed restraints on motor- could be of further help if' legislated emission limits were expressed in units ized traffic in their inner cities. of fuel consumed rather than in units of distance traveled. One technology under development is a membrane that, by The goal of clean air remains elusive. separating nitrogen from the air before Even though U.S. emission standards it is drawn into the combustion chamber, are as strict as any in the world, the na- would not only eliminate nitrogen ox- tion's enormous traffic volume simply ides but also boost combustion effi- overwhelms pollution control efforts. ciency.53 3 The average new gasoline-powered car Pollution abatement effortsevery- could already meet considerably more where have focused almost entirely on stringent norms than those in force tailpipe devices that seek to reduce ex- today. Yet there are no in-use standards haust emissions rather than on develop- for older cars, even though these often ing solutions that might prevent their pollute far more than permitted by new- formation in the first place. Some alter- car standards. Some 62 American cities native engine designs described earlier still fail to meet federal ozone and car- as fuel saversthe stratified charge and bon monoxide standards, and one third adiabatic diesel enginescould fit that of them have no prospect of ever meet- bill. Ceramic engines or engine compo- ing them.50 nents could also cut emissions. Unfortu- The U.S. Environmental Protection nately, government R&D supportfor Agency (EPA) has been lax in enforcing these technologies in the United States Clean Air Act provisions that call for was terminated or sharply curtailed bans on federal funds for new highway under the Reagan administration.54 and industrial construction in noncom- The use of nonpetroleum fuels to re- pliance areas. Since 1975, Congress has duce emissions is garnering growing Rethinking Transportation (rost) support among both public officials and emissions. Even ethanol combustion auto industry managers. A bill passed by produces compoundsaldehydes and the U.S. Congress in the fall of 1988 peroxyacetyl nitratethat may contrib- strivesto encourage automakersto ute to global warming.55 mass-produce either "dedicated" alter- The search for less polluting alterna- native-fuel vehicles (designed to use a tives to petroleum extends beyond alco- fuel mixture containing at least 85 per- hol fuels. Outside the United States, nat- cent ethanol or methanol) or fuel-flexi- ural gas vehicles are receiving growing ble vehicles (capable of running on vari- attention, because they promise lower ous blends of gasoline and alcohol fuels carbon monoxide and particulate emis- or of operating on natural gas and gaso- sions (but perhaps higher discharges of line). But the legislation may end up nitrogen oxides) than conventional vehi- eroding fuel economy standards while cles. But emissions of greenhouse gases failing to induce the use of alcohol would hardly be lower.s5 fuels.5s Electric vehicles essentially emit no Colorado and several other states are pollutants. Their environmental accept- or will be mandating alcohol blends ability, however, depends on how the (gasoline containing up to 10 percent electricity that powers them is gener- ethanol or methanol) to meet Clean Air ated. Unless nonfossil feedstocks are Act standards. California has taken the used, the CO2 problem would remain lead on pure methanol. The mecca of untackledorcouldevenbeag- the automotive culture originally em- gravated.65 braced methanol in 1979 in response to Hydrogen may well be the most desir- the oil crisis; the program has since able fuel of the future. Unless it is based gained fresh impetus as a way to meet air on fossil fuels, the production of hydro- quality standards. In little more than a gen does not lead to CO2 emissions. Its decade, California hopes to replace as use does not generate carbon monoxide much as 30 percent of gasoline con- or unburnt hydrocarbons, and nitrogen sumption with methanol in areas violat- oxides emissions are low.61 ing federal air pollution standards.56 Tests for alcohol fuel vehicles show a wide range of air quality results, and there is considerable controversy, particularly over the merits of methanol use. A NEW AGE OF TRANSPORT Pure methanol yields only negligible amounts of highly reactive, ozone-pro- The auto culture is so deeply ingrained ducing hydrocarbons. but does not no- in western society that alternatives to it ticeably reduce carbon monoxide emis- seem virtually unthinkable. But exces- sions; methanol blends decrease carbon sive reliance on cars can actually stifle monoxide emissions, but do not provide rather than advance societies. The very any tangible ozone benefit." success of mass motorization has created A neglected aspect of turning to meth- conditions that cannot be ameliorated anol is its impact on the greenhouse ef- simply by making cars more efficient and fect. Operating a vehicle on methanol less polluting. emits less CO2 than using gasoline The automobile exacts an enormous would. But producing the fuel from coal toll in human life. Despite safety im- would worsen the threat of climate provements, an estimated quarter-mil- change because converting coal into lion people dieintrafficaccidents methanol could double CO2-equivalent around the world every year, with mil- (1 la) Stale of the World 1989 lions more suffering injuries of varying percent use public transportation, and severity.62 the remainder walk or bike. In Tokyo, Large stretches of land have been just 15 percent of the population drives given over to the automobile and its in- to work. The result is that residents of frastructure. Worldwide, at least a third the highly car-oriented American cities of an average city's land is devoted to use twice as much gasoline per capita as roads, parking lots, and other elements Australians, four times as much as Euro- of a car infrastructure. In American cit- peans, and 10 times as much as Asians.66 ies, close to half the urban space goes to Congestion is no longer an exclusively accommodate the automobile; in Los urban phenomenon. IntheUnited Angeles, the figure is two thirds." States. residential settlements and jobs Cars confer on their owners virtually are increasingly dispersed in sprawling boundless freedom as long as their num- suburbs. As a consequence, the number bers remain limited. But instead of facili- of commutes within central city areas has tating individual mobility, the prolifera- remained fairly stable since 1960, while tion of automobiles has bred a crisis of the number of trips between central cities its owncongestion. The conventional and suburbs and from suburb to suburb approach to this problem has led to a has doubled. When suburban communi- vicious circle: building more roads sim- ties are too scattered, public mass transit, ply attracts more cars, thus increasing biking, and walking are not feasible.66 the pressure for still more roads. In The United States boasts of the high- southern California, with probably more est degree of individual mobility in the miles of freeways than anywhere in the world. But Americans' heavy reliance on world, the average travel speed is no the automobile is a peculiar blend of higher than 33 miles per hour and is ex- preference and necessity, a cross be- pected to drop to 15 miles per hour by tween an abiding love affair with the pas- 2000. The Commission on California senger car and a profound lack of alter- State Government Organization and natives to autos. Fewer than 20 percent Economy. a panel of business and politi- of the miles traveled by car are for vaca- cal leaders, recently warned that mount- tioning, "pleasure" driving, or visiting ing congestion had placed California on family or friends. The overwhelming the brink of "a transportation crisis majority of driving goes for such daily which will affect the economic prosperity necessities as commuting to work and of the state."64 shopping.6' Those cities most reliant on automo- A full accounting of the manifold sub- biles face virtual paralysis, an "urban sidies the automobile receives, plus the thrombosis," as Kirkpatrick Sale has put environmental and health costs it en- it, "that slowly deprives the city of its tails, might cool the passion felt for cars. lifeblood." In U.S. cities like Denver, In most if not all countries, car owners Houston, and Los Angeles, roughly 90 do not bear the full costs of road build- percent of people get to work by car; in ing and maintenance, municipal services the less auto-dependent cities like New (such as traffic regulation and costs York, cars still account for two thirds of borne by police and fire departments), all work-related trips. By comparison, in accidents and related health care, and Europe, where communities are less ex- tax losses from land paved over for auto- tensivelysuburbanized andaverage motive purposes. commuting distances are half those in In the United States, total subsidies North America, only about 40 percent of may surpass $300 billion each yearan urban residents use their cars. Some 37 amount equal to all personal auto-re- Rethinhing Transportation (iii) lated expenditures. If these expenses tionship between land use patterns and were reflected in retail fuel prices, a gal- transportation networks is recognized. lon of gasoline might cost as much as Public transit systems can facilitate and $4.50. An environment tax, assessed ei- reinforce more compact land use, while ther on automobiles or the fuels they land use patterns frequently determine burn, would help internalize the less transportationneeds.Zoningordi- quantifiable environmental costs. No nances can encourage a higher density doubt political opposition to such mea- of urban activity while slowing develop- sures would be enormous. But societies ment at the urban perimeter. The more cannot continue to ignore the true costs concentrated both population and jobs of cars." are, the shorter are travel distances, the With a short reprieve from higher oil more mass transit becomes viable, and prices, it is time to build a bridge from an the more walking and biking occurs. In auto-centered society into an alternative short, more compact cities foster less in- transportation future characterized by dividual motorized transport." greater diversity of transport modes, in which cars, buses, rail systems, bicycles, and walking all complement each other. Societies cannot continue to ignore Mass transit systems offer a host of ad- the true costs of cars. vantages over automobiles. When fully used, they are considerably more energy-efficient and less polluting. In addi- Third World cities stand at a cross- tion, they reduce congestion: a car re- roads as they swell in size and as urban quires roughly nine times more road transportation needs rapidly multiply. In space per passenger than a bus.69 the view of Michael Replogle of the Insti- Ifproperly planned, public transit net- tute for Transportation and Develop- works can approximate the flexibility ment Policy in Washington, D.C., "there provided by private passenger cars. By isa growing transportation crisis in synchronizing schedules, ;twltidestirm- many lesser developed countries. This tional or grid systems allow convenient crisis is the product of... amismatch transfers between different transit line ,. between the supply of transportation in- They enhance access throughout a met- frastructure, services, and technologies ropolitan area and create a dense net- and the mobility needs of the majority of work of mass transit corridors that at- Third World people."" tracts more riders. Multidestinational Governments frequently assign prior- systems are operating successfully in ity to motorized travel in traffic plan- many European and some North Ameri- ning, budget decisions, and allocation of can cities." street space, marginalizing pedestrians The viability of public transit sys- and traditional modes of transportation. temsparticularly in suburban areas Similarly, the World Bank has helped to can be enhanced by making them more slant transportation projects toward mo- accessible. Bike-and-ride stations and torized solutions. Between 1972 and facilities to carry bicycles on buses and 1985, rail and bus systems received less rail systems have proved enormously than one third of the funding for World popular in Denmark, Japan, the Nether- Bank urban transportationprojects. lands, and West Germany, but remain Nonmotorized modes have been virtu- little used in the United Stairs." ally ignored.14 R:orienting transport priorities can Alas. government policies favoring be successful only if the symbiotic rela- private car ownership by a tiny but af- (112) Stale of the World 1989 fluent elite are squandering scarce re- Lance urban vehicular transportation in sources and distorting development pri- Asia. although they are far less common orities. Bringing in fuel, car compo- in parts of the western hemisphere and nents,oralreadyassembledautos Africa. There are 800 million bicycles in stretches import budgets thin. Likewise, the world today, twice the number of building and maintaining an elaborate cars. In China, there are 540 bikes for system of roads. highways, bridges, and every car, with one bicycle for every four tunnels devours enormous resources. people." The overwhelming majority of people French philosopher Andre Gorz once in the Third World will never be able to remarked that "the automobile is the own a car. The promotion of auto own- paradoxical example of a luxury object ership thus entails sharp inequities: to that has been devalued by its own make it happen, the resources of poor spread. But this practical devaluation and wealthy alike need to be devoted, has not yet been followed by an ideologi- though only a small share of the popula- cal devaluation." The proliferation of tion enjoys the benefits. Existing public automobiles has led to the multiple transportation often is in poor repair crises of oil depletion, air pollution, and has failed to keep up with urban looming climate change, and conges- population growth. In India and Ban- tion. The magnitude of these problems gladesh, for example. the urban public suggests the need for a fundamental re- transit sector may meet as little as 15 thinking of the automobile's role." percent of transportation needs." The scope of the modern, auto-cen- To meet the mobility needs of the tered transportation systemfrom pro- poor majority in the Third World, sub- duction and distribution to operation stantial improvements and expansion of and repairis so tremendous that fun- public transport are required. But often damental change cannot occur quickly. the poor cannot even afford public trans- A successful policy therefore needs to portation. They frequently spend a dis- encompass various layers, ranging from proportionate share of their incomes on those that can Lake effect more immedi- getting around the city. In New Delhi, ately, such as making cars more efficient the lowest income groups devote 20-25 and less polluting and discouraging auto percent of their household incomes to use where possible, to others that will transport, while the wealthiest group need more time to make their impact spends only 8 percent. Walking accounts felt, such as identifying and developing for two thirds of all trips in large African renewable, environmentally acceptable cities like Kinshasa, and for almost half fuels. and establishing efficient, flexible the trips in Bangalore, India." public mass transit systems. Nonmotorized modes of transporta- A more comprehensive policy must tionrickshaws,bicycles,push-carts, recognize that transportation needs are and animal-drawn cartsthat require lit- not abstract. What people need is access tle input of capital and energy can be an to jobs, homes, and services. More com- important complement to public transit. pact and integrated communities can They are more affordable, mostly do not provide such access without long com- pollute, do not strain investment and im- mutes. Making urban design an integral port budgets, and also generate a signif- component of futuretransportation icant amount of employment." policies could reconcile the contrasting Bicyclesconsidered mainly a recrea- interests of individuals in mobility and of tional device in the industrial Westare society in fuel supply security, urban in- the predominant means of short-dis- tegrity, and environmental protection. I n 7 RespondingtoAIDS Lori Heise

Few tragedies in human history have This incongruity of numbers more captured the world's attention as has likely reflects gross underattention to di- AIDS. No disease, past or present, has arrhea and tuberculosis than overreac- inspiredaninternationalresponse tion to AIDS. The world isrightly equal to the current AIDS mobilization alarmed at AIDS' potential to surpass of the WorldHealth Organization other killers if it continues to spread un- (WHO). None in recent memory has checked. Moreover, body counts alone provoked more anxiety, aroLsed such do not reflect what sets AIDS apart. Un- prejudice against the afflicted, or stimu- like most diseases. AIDS is almost always lated so many moral, ethical. and legal fatal; there is no cure and no vaccine. debates. And no disease has more Carriers may go for years without symp- pointedly forced societies to confront toms, evoking the paranoia and fear that issues otherwise conveniently ignored: accompany uncertainty. And AIDS deals drug abuse, sexuality, and the plight of with the most intimate of human activi- the poor. ties, the most powerful of human emo- This global response is all the more tions. remarkable given the relatively small Together these factors give AIDS a number of people affected by acquired psychological charge unmatched by any immunodeficiency syndrome sofar. otherillness.Significantly,though, WHO estimates that by the end of 1988. AIDS is one of the few diseases that at least 350,000 cases of the disease had poses a substantial threat to both indus- occurred worldwide. The U.N. agency trial and developing nations. This con- expects 1 million more cases by 1992, vergence of interests provides oppor- but even then, other killers will dwarf tunities to forge new alliances and new AIDS' toll. Each year, 2.5 million people models for international cooperation. As die of smoking-related illnesses and 5 Jonathan Mann, Director of WHO's million children succumb to chronic di- Global Programme on AIDS, observes: arrhea. Tuberculosis alone claims 3 mil- "AIDS has the potential to bring us to- lion lives annually, 10 times the number gether, if we can thwart those who would of AIDS cases to date.' use it to drive us apart."2

I. /=,...) (114) State of the World 1989 THE PANDEMIC UNFOLDS dies, and from mother to child during pregnancy or birth. Contrary to wide- In 1981, astute physicians in California spread fears, AIDS cannot be caught and New York began to recognize a through casual contact, sneezes, kissing, strange clustering of symptoms among toilet seats, or insects. some of their male homosexual patients. Although the virus is transmitted the Something was destroying the immune same way everywherethrough blood, systems of these individuals, rendering through sexual intercourse, or from them susceptible to an odd assortment mother to childthe pattern of trans- of opportunistic infections and cancers. mission and infection varies among re- Almost simultaneously, doctors in Cen- gions. Indeed, the international AIDS tral Africa, Europe, and Haiti began to picture can best be understood in terms note patients with similar conditions. By of three broadly defined subepidemics, 1982, the new disease had a name: AIDS. each with its own dynamic. And one year later, it had a cause: the In North America, Western Europe, human immunodeficiencyvirus,or and certain Latin American countries, HIV.' AIDS is mainly transmitted through homosexual intercourse and the sharing of needles among drug addicts. As a result, AIDS on average takes eight or those infected are overwhelmingly male, nine years to develop. and transmission from mother to child is limited. Less than 1 percent of the population is thought to be infected, but the HIV exhibits a unique combination of infection rate among intravenous (IV) characteristics that makes it intrinsically drug users and homosexual men ex- hard to control. Like genital herpes. ceeds 50 percent in some cities. Hetero- once caught, the virus stays with its car- sexual sex is responsible for a small but rier for life. Once disease develops, increasing proportion of cases. Interest- AIDS is almost always fatalusually ingly, despite its potential, sex with pros- within two years. But instead of mani- titutes is not a major mode of transmis- festing within a few days or weeks, like sion.5 most viral diseases, AIDS on average By contrast, in sub-Saharan Africa and takes eight or nine years to develop. parts of the Caribbean, AIDS is primarily During this interval, carriers look and a heterosexually transmitted disease, feel healthy but can pass the virus to oth- with women infected as often as men. ers. Researchers now believe that most if Because so many women are infected, not all individuals infected with HIV will transmission from mother to child is dis- eventually develop AIDS.4 turbinglycommon.Bloodtransfu- The good news, however, is that com- sionsa route largely eliminated in the pared with other virusessuch as polio industrial worldremain a source of in- and the common coldH1V is fragile fection in many countries where blood and relatively difficult to transmit. AIDS supplies still are not screened. Since in- is overwhelmingly a sexually transmitted travenous drug use and homosexuality disease, communicated through body are rare, these modes of transmission fluids and blood during vaginal or anal are not significant, although reuse of intercourse. To a significant but lesser contaminated needles by health workers extent, the virusisalso transmitted remains a likely source of infection. In through blood transfusions, through the some countries, infection in the total sharing or reusing of contaminated nee- population exceeds 1 percent, with 5-33 Responding to AIDS (115) percent of sexually active adults in select fections might be more susceptible to urban areas infected. Male contact with HIV infection. This factor may operate prostitutes is thought to play a major to increase heterosexual transmission in role in the epidemic's spread.6 the Third World, where viral and para- In the third set of countries, HIV has sitic diseases are endemic. There is no been introduced only recently. Infection convincing evidence that genetic differ- rates remain extremely low even among ences or variations in viral strains ac- people with multiple sex partners, such count for the African pattern of trans- as prostitutes. Most cases have origi- mission .° nated outside of the country either Although scientists have mapped the through sex with a foreigner or through virus's surface chemistry in minute de- imported blood products contaminated tail, the world has only the vaguest no- with HIV. Although there is increasing tion of where HIV is and where itis evidence of in-country spread, no strong going. As of December 1,1988, 142 pattern of heterosexual or homosexual countrieshadreportedatotalof transmission has emerged. Asia, Eastern 129,385 AIDS cases to the World Health Europe, northern Africa, the Middle Organization. (See Table 7-1.) Due to East, and most of the Pacific all fall in gross underreporting and underrecog- this category:: ration, however, WHO suspects that the These variations evolve from a combi- true global caseload is more than twice nation of factors, including when and that figure. Moreover, AIDS cases repre- where the virus first entered the popula- sent only the tip of the iceberg: for every tion and the different social practices AIDS case, anywhere from 20 to 100 and behaviors that exist among cultures. In Africa, for example, the epidemic inpeople may carry the virus but not yet volved the heterosexually active popula- show symptoms. All told, WHO esti- tion first, whereas in the United States mates that 5 million to 10 million people the epidemic was initially introduced worldwide may be infected with HIV.'° and amplified in predominately male Lacking any better measure, many populations.. homosexuals, people with people have used WHO data on re- hemophilia, and IV drug users. Re- ported AIDS cases to compare the sever- searchers also believe that the greater ity of the epidemic in different parts of prevalence of untreated sexually trans- the world. Such comparisons can be mis- mitted diseases (STDs) in Africa has leading, however, because countries facilitated the spread of AIDS there and vary greatly in the accuracy and com- may largely explain the greater efficiency pleteness of their reporting. Also, be- of heterosexual sex in transmitting the cause of the virus's long latency period, virus among Africans .° a country's current number of AIDS It is becoming increasingly clear, for cases is actually a snapshot of the epi- example, that chlamydia and STDs that demic five to eight years ago, when those cause genital sores (such as syphilis, who now have AIDS first got infected. herpes, and chancroid) make it easier for The severity of today's epidemic is best HIV to pass between sexual partners. represented by studies that measure how Sadly, in developing countries where many people are currently infected with treatment is less accessible, STDs are far HIV by testing individuals' blood for an- more endemic than in the industrial tibodies to the virus. world. Laboratory evidence also sug- Because antibody testing is expensive gests that an individual whose immune and difficult to conduct on a large scale, system has been activated by chronic in- only a handful of countriesincluding 131) (rr6) State of the World 1989 Table 7-1. Officially Reported AIDS By testing enough people with differ- Cases, Selected Countries, ent backgrounds and risk factorsfac- December 1, 1988 tory workers, prostitutes in cities, rural blooddonorsepidemiologistscan Country Prevalence Rate piece together a fairly accurate picture of (cases per the epidemic's extent. Researchers at million WHO are now using such surveys to de- (cases) population) rive country-specific estimates of infec- United States 78.985 321 tion within different age-groups. Al- Uganda 5.508 336 though estimates of infection by country Brazil 4.436 31 are not yet available, the sum total of France 4.211 75 data lead WHO to believe that Africa is Tanzania 3.055 126 the most affected continent and Asia the least. (See Table 7-2.) Infection in Africa Kenya 2.732 117 appears largely concentrated in the cen- Malawi 2,586 336 ter, extending west from Tanzania to the West Germany 2,580 42 Congo, and dipping south to include Italy 2,556 45 Zambiaand Malawi. The United States is Canada 2.156 83 also severely affected, with an estimated 1-1.5 million infected individuals.'2 Mexico 1.502 18 Antibody surveys likewise reveal that Haiti 1,455 231 throughout the world AIDS is primarily Burundi 1,408 271 an urban disease, although it is gradually Congo 1.250 568 spreading from major urban centers to Zambia 1,056 141 smaller cities and towns. In parts of Rwanda 987 139 Zambia, northwestern Tanzania, and southwestern Uganda, however, there Switzerland 605 92 are major rural outbreaks, emanating French Guiana 113 1,228 from the movement of people and dis- Japan 90 0.7 ease along the Trans-African Highway Bermuda 81 1,396 and in areas of military conflict.13 China 3 0.003 Table 7-2. Estimated HIV Prevalence, souxcEs: World Health Organization data base: Population Reference Bureau.1988 World Popula- Selected Regions, 1987/88 tion Data UM(Washington. D.C.: 1988). Region Prevalence Uganda and Rwanda have attempted to design and implement surveys that (numberinfected) would yield national estimates of HIV Africa 2-3 million prevalence. Even in these small coun- United States 1-1.5 million tries, the logistical and design problems LatinAmerica 500,000-750,000 of testing "representative" cross sec- Europe 280,000-800,000 tions of society have proved immense, Asia fewer than 100,000 making it unlikely that many countries will undertake similar ventures. Without World 5-10 million systematic testing, epidemiologists will (probably closer to have to rely on small-scale blood surveys 5 million) of select groups for estimating the scope SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute. compiled from vari- of infection.'" ous World Health Organization sources. Responding to AIDS (117) Even more difficult than determining cases in American women are related to the world's current AIDS picture is pre- drug use, with even higher proportions dicting how the epidemic will evolve. Al- among black and Hispanic women (70 ready there have been important shifts and 8$ percent,respectively). Even in the persons most at risk in various among female prostitutes, the likelihood countries and in the relative significance of infection is more closely linked to IV of different transmission routes. Such drug use than to prostitution itself 16 shifts are meaningful because they indicate where new prevention activities should be focused and have important Half of all AIDS cases in American implications for the spread of infection women are related to drug use. beyond those presently affected. The UnitedStatesand Western Europe, for example, are now experienc- Cenain Central American and Carib- ing a second wave of epidemic among bean nations have also experienced intravenous drug users. Whereas most shiftsinAIDS epidemiology,with AIDS cases used to involve homosexual heterosexual sex gradually replacing ho- men, evidence indicates that rates of new mosexual activity as the dominant route infection are declining among gay men of transmission. This change is best ex- but accelerating among drug addicts. In emplified in Haiti, where the percentage fact, in certain parts of Europeinclud- of cases involving men who contracted ing Italy, Spain, and ScotlandIV drug AIDS through homosexual activity de- users now account for the majority of all clined from 50 percent in 198$ to 1 per- cases. Overall, the proportion of total cent in 1987, while the share transmitted European AIDS cases involving drug in- heterosexually increased from 26 to over jection rose from 2 percent in Septem- 80 percent. As a result, the proportion of ber 1984 to 24 percent in mid-1988.14 cases among women has doubled since This new pattern is important because 1979, and the number of babies born of both its impact on the drug-using with AIDS has increased greatly." community and its potential to facilitate the spread of AIDS into the general pop- Latin American health officials suspect ulation. Although it is too early to pre- that the high prevalence of bisexuality dict whether AIDS will move into the among some Latin men has contributed heterosexual mainstream in these areas, to this shifting epidemiology. Because addicts could facilitate this process by homosexuality is less acceptable in Latin communicating the virus to their sexual culture and the pressure to have chil- partners who in turn could infect people dren is acute. many men who engage in outside the drug community. Seventy homosexualactivitymarry or have percent of heterosexually transmitted steady female lovers. This sets the stage cases in native-born U.S. citizens cur- for increasing AIDS incidence among rently occur in partners of IV drug women and children, a pattern already users." documented in Trinidad and Tobago, Indeed, it is difficult to overemphasize the Dominican Republic, and Honduras, the role that drug abuse could play in the among others. Health officials fear that future of the American and European other Latin American countries could AIDS epidemic. Already, more than 70 follow Haiti's lead. In Brazil and Mexico, percent of cases in American children for example, bisexuals account for 2$ are due to IV drug use by their mother percent of reported AIDS cases; in Ecua- or her sexual partner. Half of all AIDS dor, for 40 percent." (i18) Stale of the World 1989 THE IMPACT IN THE THIRD put the start-up costs of screening their national blood supply at $20 million in WORLD 1987, a sum that could otherwise cover Estimating the social and economic im- the total annual health care bill for 1.5 pact of AIDS in the Third World is an million Peruvians. If borne aione by developing countries, these costs could de- endeavor fraught with uncertainty. Sci- railalreadyfragileand inadequate entists have too few data on the preva- health care systems.201 lence of HIV infection or on the condi- Developing countries also have fewer tionsboth behavioral and socialthat options for treating AIDS patients than determine its spread to project with any countries in the West do. Physicians in confidence the future course of the epi- industrial countries largely respond by demic. Even less information is available treating the secondary diseases, such as for translating rising death rates into po- Pneumocyslis carinii pneumonia, that ac- tential impacts on overtaxed health care company AIDS. It is an expensive ordeal systems, economic output, or future that often involves frequent hospital population growth. Yet one thing is cer- stays. The only drug currently known to tain: AIDS will have a profound impact attack HIV directlyzidovudine, com- in the Third World, and one that ex- monly known as AZTcosts roughly ceeds the impact in the West, where re- $8,000 per patient annually, and causes sources are more plentiful and basic in- anemia so severe that over a quarter of frastructure better developed. recipients require blood transfusions. In A look at existing health care systems the Third World, where per capita in- in the Third World provides a glimpse of comes are measured in hundreds of dol- the disadvantage that developing coun- lars and blood is in short supply, a life- tries face in responding to AIDS. In prolonging drug like AZT might as well 1984. Haiti had $3.25 to spend on health not exist.21 care per citizen; Mexico had $11.50. Indeed, preliminary cost data from Rwanda's pitiful annual budget of $1.60 around thy world suggestthatthe per person would not even buy a bottle amount spent per AIDS patient roughly of aspirin in the industrial world. By con- correlates with a country's gross national trast, Sweden annually spends over product (GNP). As with health care in $1,100 on health care per person and general, poor countries are forced to the United States invests more than spend less on each patient. If Zaire spent $760. Yet meager Third World health at a level comparable to the United budgets must contend with existing epi- States, the cost of treating 10 AIDS pa- demics of frightening proportion. Three tients would exceed the entire budget of million Third World children die each Mama Yemo, the nation's largest public year from preventable diseases such as hospital. Although costs in industrial measles, tetanus, and whooping cough. countries are inflated by higher salaries, In Africa alone, malaria annually claims more expensive equipment, and added 1 million lives.19 malpractice insurance, AIDS treatment Data from countries already respond- undoubtedly suffers in countries where ing to AIDS confirm that the costs of even antibiotics and syringes are in short prevention will be high. In 1988, for ex- supply.22 ample, Brazil's prevention program was Given such constraints, AIDS natur- estimated to cost $28 million, $8 million ally raises the question of triage. Where of which went to screen blood at state- hospital space and medical supplies are run blood banks. Health officials in Peru scarce and where people regularly die of _I' Responding to AIDS (zz9) treatable illnesses, diverting resources immune system, HIV allows dormant to AIDS treatment may actually cost lives TB bacteria to become active, leading to by crowding out patients who can be the contagious form of tuberculosis.25 cured. From a quarter to half of precious Although it is too early to measure hospital beds in some central African worldwide increases in TB prevalence, hospitals are occupied by patients who some evidence suggests that HIV may are infected with HIV; Costa Rican offi- already be having a multiplier effect on cials predict a similar situation by the this deadly disease. New York City mid-1990s. Already, AIDS patients are home to almost half of all U.S. AIDS pa- being discharged from some health tientsreported a 35-percent jump in facilities in Africa, Haiti, and Brazil to TB cases between 1984 and 1986. Stud- give preference to patients with curable ies also document a close association be- illnesses.25 tween TB and HIV: in Kinshasa, Zaire, In terms of overall health investment. 38 percent of TB patients tested were however, AIDS prevention activities may HIV-positive, compared with only 2.5-8 actually deserve high priority, even in percent of healthy adults. An HIV-TB countries heavily burdened by other dis- link is especially worrisome in the Third eases. A World Bank/WHO research World, where poverty, overcrowding, team of western and African researchers and lack of access to treatment make tu- has estimated that preventing one case berculosis more lethalthaninthe of HIV infection in Africa would save West.26 more years of life than would preventing a case of malaria, measles, tuberculosis (TB), or pneumonia. To determine the From a quarter to half of precious relative merits of investing in AIDS pre- hospital beds in some central Afri- vention versus other disease control programs, decision makers need to con- can hospitals are occupied by pa- sider how many people are affected by tients infected with HIV. each disease and the comparative costs of each prevention program. Signifi- cantly, preventing a case of AIDS stops It is in the area of child health, how- secondary and tertiary transmission of ever, that AIDS has the greatest poten- the virus, whereas preventing a case of tial to erode hard-won health gains in measles or malaria would affect trans- the Third World. Over the last three mission little if at all, because such dis- decades,developingregionshave easesarealreadysopervasivein inaugurated a "child survival revolu- A frica.24 tion" through encouraging oral rehydra- Not only does AIDS compete with tion therapy for diarrhe.., immunization, other diseases for limited health 'aud- breast-feeding, and birth spacing. To- gets. HIV actually magnifies existing epi- gether with economic growth and in- demics. By weakening the immune sys- creased female literacy, these simple in- tem of its host, the virus makes carriers terventions have cut Third World child more susceptible to renewed attack from deaths by slightly more than half since other microbes lying dormant. For ex- 1955, with Southeast Asia making the ample, some 30-60 percent of adults in greatest progress and Africa the least.27 many developing countries are carriers Left unchecked. AIDS will undermine of the tuberculosis bacteria, even though these gains as more and more pregnant their bodies have conquered outward women become infected and transmit signs of the disease. By suppressing the the virus to their children in utero. Al- s.

(120) State of the World 1989 ready 9-24 percent of pregnant women certain specialized skills and training in some African citiessuch as Kinshasa may be small, the loss of even a handful and Kampalaare infected. Up to half ofengineers,healthplanners,or the children born to these women will agronomists can be debilitating.30 contract the virus and die. Preliminary Although predicting AIDS' impact on models of the most affected regions in specific economic sectors will require Africa suggestthatinfantmortality detailedcountry-by-countryanalysis, could increase by more than 25 percent, hints of what may be in store have eroding three decades of progress in in- started to emerge. Zambian researchers fant and child health.29 fear that labor losses due to AIDS could These models also show that although cripple their nation's copper mining in- adult death rates in Africa could rise dra- dustry, which accounts for one fifth of matically, AIDS will likely have only Zambia's GNP. One study in the nation's modest impacts on population growth. Copper Belt found that 68 percent of The notionadvanced by somethat men testing positive were the skilled parts of Africa are already "lost" to professionals upon whom the mining in- AIDS or that the disease eliminates the dustry depends. Since the companies need for family planning funds is not provide both retirement benefits and supported by the evidence. A modelby comprehensive medical and social ser- John Bongaarts of the Population Coun- vices for miners and their families, Zam- cil in New York, for example, predicts bian researchers fear that the financial that a typical African growth rate of 3 drain of AIDS could jeopardize the en- percent could fall to 2 percent over 25 tire mining sector.91 years if, 20 percent of the total popula- These economic disruptions come at a tion became infected. Even if death rates were to doublewith AIDS adding as time when developing nationsespe- many deaths as all other causes com- cially in Africaare already laboring binedpopulation growth would not under severe economic hardship. Per cease.29 capita income is declining and foreign debt is mounting. Against this backdrop, AIDS threatens to further complicate AIDS eliminates the most produc- balance-of-payment problems. Foreign tive segment of a population. exchange will be lost as governments seek to import items necessary to combat the epidemic, tourist dollars may de- The demographic effects of AIDS may cline in response to travelers' fears. and be small, but the economic impact of a economic growth will slow as people and fatal epidemic focused on sexually active governments divert savings from invest- adults could be immense. Unlike other ment to treatment. Indeed, in industrial diseases that cull the weakest members and developing countries alike, the indi- of societythe sick, the old, and the very rect economic costs of AIDS will far ex- youngAIDS eliminates the most pro- ceed any direct costs related to preven- ductive segment of a population. In tion or treatment.32 Africa, HIV infection in women peaks Researchers at the Harvard Institute during their third decadethe prime of International Development are at- childbearing yearsand for males dur- tempting to quantify these indirect costs ing their fourth decade, the most pro- bymodeling the impact of AIDS on cer- ductive years at work and in the commu- tain central African economies. Accord- nity. Where the ranks of people with ing to their projections, by 1995 the an- Responding to AIDS (I 21 ) nual loss to Zaire's economy due to pre- a generation whose futureisshort- mature deaths and reduced savings will changed by AIDS. be between $350 million and $670 mil- lionequal to 8 to 16 percent of the nation's GNP in 1984. Even without including direct treatment costs or losses due to illness, these figures exceed the PROGRESS TOWARD $3 1 4 million that Zaire received from all PREVENTION IN INDUSTRIAL sources of development assistance in 1984." COUNTRIES In human terms, this economic slow- For a world used to solving problems ing will mean that by 1995. the average with a technical fix, AIDS is frustrating. Zairian will have roughly $18 less in- Today, prospects for a vaccine or cure come per year than he or she would have seem even more distant than they did had in an economy without AIDS (mea- two years ago, when scientists were reel- sured in constant 1984 dollars). A mere ing from the thrill of rapid discovery. pittanceinindustrialsocieties. $18 The AIDS virus has proved a wily oppo- represents a 10-percent loss in income nent: It hides within the very immune for Zairians, who average only $170 per cells that the body normally uses to ward year. Tragically, this decline comes on off invaders, making vaccines and treat- top of an already seriously eroded in- ments exceedingly difficult to devise. come base: per capita income in Zaire And it mutates at a furious paceper- declined roughly 42 percent between haps even faster than the influenza virus 1965 and 1985. AIDS is an added bur- that requires researchers to alter the flu den these people cannot afford.34 vaccine every year. Prevention will likely Even more devastating are the costs of remain the world's primary weapon caring for family members stricken with against AIDS for atleast the next AIDS. Athough employers or the state decade.96 pay health care costs in many developing In the industrial world, where trans- countries. not all citizens have access to mission through blood transfusions has such assistance, either because they are essentially ceased. stopping AIDS means unemployed or because they live in re- getting people to change high-risk be- mote areas. In one study of children with havior.Risky behavior includes un- AIDS in Kinshasa, over half the parents protected sex, especially with multiple were either unemployed or dead, mean- partners.and the sharing of con- ing that treatment costs fell to family and taminated needles among drug addicts. friends. Children's hospital expenses The best way to avoid AIDS is to have a typically were three times their parents' mutually monogamous sexual relation- average monthly wages. and funerals ship with a partner known to be unin- and burial cost almost a year's salary.n fected. Short of that. condoms provide Yet the true costs of AIDS are both good, although not foolproof protection economic and personal. Economists can against HIV transmission. The spermi- count up the direct costs and calculate cide nonoxyl -9 has also been shown to the indirect cost of lost wages from dis- kill the virus in laboratory tests, but its ability and death. But what of the psy- ability to prevent HIV transmission be- chological toil on those left behind? Eco- tween sexual partners has yet to be nomic tally sheets cannot capture the proved." pain of a child left without parents or of It is important to recognize that it is

.L.,'-..1 o (122) Stale of the World 1989 what people do, not who they are, that tier between the virus and the unin- puts them at risk. As the Panos Institute fected, to label the afflicted as "foreign," has pointed out in its groundbreaking "different," "not me." In reality, by pro- workBlaming Others,talk of "high-risk viding a false sense of security, they groups," such as Haitians. gay men, or allow the disease to spread unchecked.40 prostitutes. tends to invite finger-point- In the United States, bills for premari- ing and erroneously suggests that any- tal screening for HIV have been intro- one not in these groups is safe. More- duced in 35 states and become law in over. categorization fails to acknowledge Illinois, Louisiana, and Texas. (The law that not all group members practice in Texas will not go into effect unless high-risk behavior. AIDS is not a "gay HIV prevalence exceedsacertain disease" or an "African disease" or a threshold.) Like travel restrictions, such "disease of drug addicts." Anyone who bills are politically attractive because engages in high-risk behavior can con- they are highly visible; yet they are dan- tract H1V.38 gerous because they deflect attention Given these risks, industrial countries and resources from those truly at risk. have responded in a variety of ways. Even premaritalsyphilistesting has some constructive, others less so. In never efficiently identified new syphilis general, European governments were cases: in 1978, premarital screening ac- quicker than the United States to launch counted for only 1.27 percent of all tests broad-based AIDS education programs, found positive, but the program cost $80 even though their epidemics were not million annually. Not surprisingly, Loui- yet as severe. Seven European countries sent information booklets to their citi- siana has already repealed its AIDS law zens more than a year before the United after realizing thatit uncovered few States did so in June 1988. Across the cases and pushed couples to neighbor- board, these public information cam- ing states to get married. Illinois likewise paigns have achieved roughly the same is having second thoughts.c result: people now know that sex, blood, Other countries and constituencies and needles can transmit AIDS, but they have responded with calls for mandatory still cling to many misperceptions. In testing, compulsory reporting of HIV- 1987, 40 percent of Canadians polled, positive individuals, or required partner for instance, believed that AIDS could tracing. The Soviet Union, Hungary, be transmitted through insects, as did 38 and Bavaria in West Germany, for exam- percent of Americans.39 ple. all require testing of high-risk in- Regrettably, some nations have also dividuals, including prostitutes, drug ad- espoused superficially attractive but in- dicts,andwiththeexceptionof effective responses, such as screening Bavariahomosexuals. Yet health offi- and deportation of infected foreigners, cials are unanimous in the view that premarital testing, and mandatory test- mandatory measures merely drive un- ing of those perceived to be at risk. For derground those most in need of testing. example, 29 countriesincluding vari- In Charleston, South Carolina, the num- ous developing onesnow impose some ber of homosexual men seeking testing form of travel restriction or mandatory dropped by 51 percent after the state screening of foreigners even though began requiring all those who tested WHO has determined that such mea- positive to be reported to the public sures are costly. repressive, and will not health department. When anonymous stem the epidemic's tide. Entry restric- and voluntary, however, testing, coun- tions are born of a desire to erect a bar- seling, and partner tracing have proved Responding to AIDS (123) to be useful and effective tools for AIDS in 1983. AIDS-induced behavior change prevention .42 is also probably responsible for recent Despite these false starts, many coun- declines in the number of new gonor- tries now have innovative prevention rhea and syphilis cases among gay men programs in place, including school- in Denmark. Finland, the Netherlands, based education, information campaigns Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Be- aimed at the general public, condom cause these STDs have shorter incuba- promotion, and specialized outreach tion periods than HIV, reductions in programs designed to reach those at high-risk behavior register more quickly highest risk. Many of the most impres- with syphilis and gonorrhea than with sive initiatives come from outside gov- AIDS.* ernment and draw on the skills and energy of the homosexual community, which rallied early to protect its mem- Mandatory measures merely drive bers. The Gay Men's Health Crisis in underground those most in need of New York (founded in 1982) and the Terrence Higgins Trust in London testing. (founded in 1983) probably still have more experience in AIDS education than any other groups in the world.4s Unfortunately, studies on both conti- So far it appears that among hetero- nents confirm that a minority of gay men sexuals, prevention campaigns have in- still engage in dangerous behavior decreased knowledge but have changed spite understanding the risks involved. sexual behavior only marginally. Change Risky behavior is most often associated among gay men, however, has been dra- with the use of uninhibiting drugs dur- matic and may well constitute the most ing sex, suggesting that programs aimed rapid and profound behavioral response at alcohol and recreational drugs may be ever documented in public health. Stud- important for AIDS control. Moreover, ies throughout the United States and gays living in lower risk areas do not Western Europe have found that gay seem to have modified their behavior as men have reduced their number of sex- much. perhaps because they do not feel ual partners, increased their use of con- as personally at risk. It is unsafe to as- doms, and decreased their participation sume, therefore, that the entire gay male in unprotected anal intercourse. One re- population in the United States and view of 24 American and European stud- Europe has been educated and that at- ies concluded that, on average. gay men tentionisbetterplacedelsewhere. have 63 percent fewer sexual partners Promising progress has been made, but since AIDS. The incidence of receptive much remains to be done.44 anal intercourse has similarly declined. Intravenous drug users have also by 59 percent.44 proved capable of change, although Because of HIV's long latency period. curbing HIV infection among drug ad- these behavior changes have not yet dicts has received far too little attention. translated into fewer new AIDS cases, especially in the United States. Response but in parts of the United States rates of has been hampered by debate over the new HIV infection among gay men have moral and legal appropriateness of cer- declined. Less than 1 percent of nonin- tain interventions, such as needle ex- fected homosexual men in San Fran- change programs, and the pervasive cisco, for example, were being infected view that addicts somehow "deserve" annually by 1988, down from 18 percent AIDS. Inaction, however, is both inhu-

(7) . ...0 (124) Stale of the World 1989 mane to drug users and shortsighted, programs have been approved. On both given that IV drug users are the most sides of the Atlantic, people argue that likely bridge between HIV and the gen- to supply syringes is to condone drug eral population. use. To refuse addicts access to clean Without a doubt, helping addicts kick needles in the age of AIDS, however, is their habit is the favored approach to to deny them the opportunity to protect stopping AIDS transmission among themselvesandeventually others drug users, but in many countries treat- from a deadly infection.49 ment capacity is sorely lacking. The While still controversial, other coun- United States, for example, can treat tries have been more willing than the only 15-20 percent of its more than 1.2 United States to experiment with needle million needle addicts, and waiting lists exchange programs. So far, Switzerland, of up to six months for treatment are not Denmark, the Netherlands, the United uncommon. During this time, addicts Kingdom, and Australia have initiated continue to shoot drugs, increasing their programs and all report significantly less chances of contracting and spreading needle-sharing among addicts. France HIV and diminishing their resolve to has also liberalized its policy by making fight their addiction. When treatment is needles available for sale at pharmacies affordable and accessible, IV drug users without prescription or identification. have shown that they will seek it out to Despite widespread concern that in- reduce their risk of AIDS. In New Jersey, creased availability of needles would en- addicts redeemed 84 percent of 970 cou- courage drug use, there is no evidence pons for free treatment that AIDS out- that this is occurring. Indeed, in the reach workers distributed. More than Netherlands the number of addicts actu- half said they were largely motivated by ally decreased from roughly 8,500 in fear of AIDS.47 1984 to 6,800 in 1988 after the govern- For those unable or unwilling to break ment implemented a comprehensive their addiction, programs aimed at safer AIDS prevention campaign aimed at ad- injection are important for AIDS con- dicts, including needle exchange, meth- trol. Needle-sharing is deeply ingrained adone treatment, and outreach.5° in the drug culture, both as a form of social bonding and because new syringes are expensive, hard to obtain, and illegal Prevention programs have been to possess in many areas. But studies singularly ineffective at reaching confirm that addicts will reduce their use of contaminated needles, especially if U.S. minority communities. given the means to do so, either through needle/syringe exchange programs or through the provision of bleach for Disturbing evidence indicates, how- cleaning syringes between uses. Indeed, ever, that changes in sexual behavior several studies suggest that supplying among American and European drug the means to change behavior is critical; addicts lag considerably behind changes programsthatprovideinformation in drug-use behavior. Even more dis- alone have tended to fail.48 tressing, the least amount of change has Despite the importance of providing occurred within committed, heterosex- the hardware of behavior change, needle ual relationships, where HIV transmis- exchange programs have beenex- sion is most likely to occur (because of tremely controversial, especially in the frequency of intercourse) and where United States, where only two small pilot children are most likely to be conceived. Responding to AIDS (125) Given that three fourths of American IV ALLIANCE FOR PREVENTION drug users are male and have a primary partner who does not use drugs, there is IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES clearly need for more education on safer Stopping AIDS in developing countries sex among addicts as part of an effort to prevent the spread of HIV 5' will take a worldwide alliance of profes- AIDS prevention programs to date sional skills, resources, and experience. have also been singularly ineffective at Left unaided, the Third World would reaching U.S. minority communities. have to divert scarce resources from Studies show that blacks and Hispanics other essential development initiatives are less well informed than whites about or be forced to accept ever-rising death AIDS and that they have not modified tolls. Even industrial countries cannot their behavior as much. This is particu- fight this scourge alone. Barring a vac- larly worrisome because blacks and His- cine or a cure, no country can indepen- panics are at extremely high risk. Al- dently protect itself from HIV, for the ready they account for 41 percent of disease respects no national boundaries. AIDS cases, even though they constitute Like several of today's most pressing only 19 percent of the U.S. population. problemsglobal warming, ozone de- Eighty-five percent of children who ac- pletion, Third World debtunless all quired AIDS from their mother and 71 nations work together against AIDS, percent of all women with AIDS are there is little hope in acting separately. black or Hispanic.52 Although nations have collaborated This pattern of infection is partly due before on action aimed at disease con- to the fact that a disproportionate num- trol, there is no precedent for the level of ber of IV drug users are black or His- cooperation that will be required to bat- panic. But even among drug addicts, tle AIDS. Even WHO's successful effort minorities are more likely to be infected to eradicate smallpox during the seven- than whites. The reasons for this are un- ties is not fully analogous: Smallpox clear, although for cultural and eco- could be prevented with a single vaccine nomic reasons, blacks and Hispanics that was already available and relatively may have less access to clean needles, easy to deliver. Industrial nations had drug treatment, and AIDS information. already conquered the disease, and car- Particularly disturbing is evidence that riers were easily identified by a charac- blacks also account for a disproportion- teristic rash. By contrast, HIV infection ate share of new HIV infection occurring is invisible and insidious. And there is no outside of big cities, where IV drug use vaccine. Stopping AIDS means getting would be less common.53 people to change their behavior, a task These trends emphasize the need for thatgovernmentsandinternational more culturally relevant AIDS informa- agencies are ill prepared to do. tion aimed at minorities. Recently, the With a threat this great and requiring Centers for Disease Control of the U.S. so much coordination, central leader- Public Health Service has attempted to ship is essential. WHO accepted this role fill this gap by ear= -king almost $45 in February 1987 when it formed the million for minority outreach projects in Special Programme on AIDS, later re- 1989, up from only $14 million in 1987. named the Global Programme on AIDS Experience suggests that initiatives aris- (GPA). Since then, the program has ing from the minority communities grown rapidly, largely due to the deter- themselves have the greatest chance of mined leadership of its director, Dr. Jon- success S4 athan Mann. Starting with one secretary (126) State of the World 1989 and a $580,000 budget. Mann has built WHO's leadership has clearly inspired the AIDS program into one of the some countries to act. but many nations agency's largest and most active, with a had nascent education campaigns even proposed budget of $95 million for 1989 before WHO entered the scene. As in and a year-end staffing target of222 pro- industrial countries, many of the earliest fessionals.55 efforts were implemented by nongov- GPA acts primarily as a coordinating ernmental groups, the vanguard of AIDS body for AIDS surveillance, prevention. education, In Kenya, for example, the and research and as a resource to gov- Red Cross distributed over a million ernments trying to develop national leaflets counseling "Help Crush AIDS" AIDS control plans. With WHO's en- and "Spread facts... not fear."The couragement and assistance, more than Rwandan Red Cross launched an im- 150 nations now have national AIDS pressive campaign usingradioan- committees, and 119 have developed nouncements, posters, and leaflets. And short-term plans for combatting the disin the Dominican Republic, the govern- ease (including every country in sub- ment distributed free condoms, printed Saharan Africa). Forty-eight countries, hundreds of thousands of brochures, mostly in the Third World, have gone on posters,and bumperstickers,and to develop three- to five-year plans. passed legislation requiring all motels to WHO also serves as an intermediary be- provide complimentary condoms.57 tween donors and developing countries Indeed, the picture that emerges from hoping to arrange funding for their na- the Third World is one of many small tional AIDS programs. As of December acts that combine to form a growing tide 1988, $99 million had been raised to of prevention activities. hi Guatemala, support 30 medium-term plans, mostly the Association for Sexual Education has in Africa and the Caribbean.56 produced two pamphlets and a series of That so many nations have mobilized wallet-sized cards that describe how to is a testament to WHO's effectiveness, protect oneself from AIDS. In Mexico, a given that two years ago most govern- dynamic woman named Gloria Ornelas ments still denied the presence or extent Hall runs an AIDS hotline that handles of AIDS. The challenge now is to trans- over 70 calls a day. And in Uganda, a late these paper plans into functioning physiotherapist and a doctor whose lives programs, a task that will be particularly were personally touched by AIDS have hard in developing countries. Most ex- formed a counseling service for sufferers perts agree that it is preferable to inte- and their families. With few resources grate AIDS prevention activities into ex- but much foresight, these individuals are isting health and educational systems reaching out into their communities to rather than develop "vertical" AIDS educate others about AIDS.sg programs that would compete for re- As WHO has helped mobilize outside sources and attention. But it is impossi- funds, Third World governments have ble to graft AIDS control programs onto become more involved in prevention. nonexistent or rudimentary rural health Often one of their first priorities has care systems or to introduce blood been to secure the nation's blood sup- screening in countries without adequate ply, primarily because it is one route that labs, trained technicians, or functioning can be eliminated with a technical fix. In blood banks. Indeed, to be successful in 1985, when a blood test for HIV first some poorer countries, the whole health became available, from 8 to 18 percent infrastructure will have to be expanded of blood donors in the capitals of and fortified. Uganda, Rwanda, and Zaire were in

41, Responding to AIDS (127) fected. With screening units costing up opportunity to target interventions and to $10,000 apiece and each test costing thereby save vital resources. Experience on average $1-4, developing countries has shown that HIV generally spreads could not afford screening and hospitals outwardfrom pocketsof infection became part of the chain of infection. In among individuals whose behavior in- Central Africa, transfusions probably ac- creases their risk of contracting and count for 5-10 percent of HIV transmis- transmitting the virus, such as prosti- sion among adults and up to a quarter of tutes, men in the military, and IV drug all AIDS cases in children.69 users. By helping such groups to protect The majority of developing countries themselves, governments can prevent now have at least some screening capac- HIV from gaining a foothold in their ity, mostly in major urban areas. By the country.61 end of 1988, limited testing equipment was available in most capital cities in Africa and Latin America and some Programs that use peers as AIDS countriessuch as Zimbabwe, Zambia, educators seem the most promis- and Mexicohadnearly universal screening.Bloodscreeningshould ing. become considerably more common in the near future as a new generation of simple,rapidbloodtestsfor HIV The speed at which the virus can infil- become available. Field tests are nearing trate unsuspecting populations argues completion on several that yield results persuasively for acting before HIV is an in 2-4 minutes, and that use only a slide obvious problem. Studies in Bangkok, and medicine dropper instead of expen- Thailand, for example, show that among sive equipment and reagents. The ability the city's estimated 60,000 IV drug to screen quickly is especially important users, HIV prevalence rose from 1 per- in developing countries where blood is cent in 1987 to over 30 percent by mid- often not banked but donated as needed 1988. Had prevention programs been in when an emergency arises.60 place, this precipitous rise might have Althoughworthdoing,screening been avoided. These individuals now blood will have a relatively small impact represent a large pool for spread of HIV on the spread of AIDS because at least both within the drug community and, 80 percent of transmission in the Third through sexual contact, outside of it.62 Worldisthrough heterosexual sex. Even where HIV isalready wide- Thus the bulk of prevention must cume spread, there is urgent need for more from encouraging fidelity and greater community-based programs designed to use of condoms. Also important is ex- reach populations at highest risk: clients panding access to treatment for other of STD clinics, long-distance truck driv- sexually transmitted diseases that may ers, and bisexual men in Latin America, be facilitating the spread of HIV. among others. The message must be The best strategy for curtailing sexual delivered in their own language and by transmission depends in part on whether a source they can trust. So far, programs HIV has infiltrated the general popula- that use peers as AIDS educators seem tion or not. In countries where the virus the most promising. In Accra, Ghana, is already widely dispersed, prevention for example, prostitutes trained as AIDS activities must be broad in scope. But educators increased condom use sig- where HIV prevalence is still low, as in nificantly within their community: 67 West Africa and Asia, countries have an percent of prostitutes now use condoms (128) State of the World 1989 all the time and another 24 percent re- spent in the neighborhood of $100-150 port frequent or occasional use. (Only million on AIDS control in the Third 13 percent used condoms before the World, a reasonable amount when com- program.)Similar pins have been pared with other health, nutrition, and achieved by peer educators working with population assistance. But the world prostitutes in Nairobi, Kenya, and in spent more than $100 millioneach hour Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.63 on the global military apparatus. It is not Encouraging though this may be that AIDS deserves a bigger share of the these results are but small victories in health and development pie, but that what is destined to be a protracted and healthand development themselves expensive war. Consider the challenge have been vastly underattended.66 of expanding condom use alone. Pro- Admittedly, money alone will not grams to supply condoms vary greatly in solve the AIDS dilemma. But money is cost depending on how the condoms will an important catalyst for action. The be distributed and how actively they will challenge ahead is to find new interna- be promoted. Even the least expensive tional funds for AIDS control with an eye optionsubsidizing their sale through toward helping the Third World develop existing commercial outletscosts theinfrastructureandindigenous roughly $12 per couple annually, half of human talentnecessaryto sustain the which is the cost of the condoms them- effort over the long haul. So far donors selves. Just to ensure that commercial have been forthcoming with develop- channels supply enough condoms for ment assistance to fight AIDS, but this one third of all couples in the nine hard- money appears largely to have been sub- est-hit countries of Africa would cost tracted from other development ac- $110millionannually,morethan counts. If AIDS control comes at the ex- WHO's total AIDS budget for 1989.64 pense of other life-promoting initiatives, Yet the bigger challengeboth in we will have won the battle, but lost the terms of difficulty and expenseis get- war. ting couples to use condoms in cultures where birth control itself is not readily accepted and where condoms are especially disdained. In most African countries. less than 5 percent of married AIDS AS SOCIAL CRUCIBLE women practice any form of modern AIDS is both a product of social change contraception and only 0.3 percent use and its instrument. Rapid urbanization condoms. Efforts to promote condoms in Africa, the rise of gay liberation in the throughout the Third World will have to West, and the advent of modern air overcome strong cultural and religious travel have all fueled this pandemic. In prohibitions as well as daunting logisti- turn, AIDS has already triggered pro- cal problems.65 found changes in every aspect of human Such observations capture the magni- endeavor, from how we care for the tude of the prevention task at hand and dying to how we relate to the living. Per- raisethequestion,Are we doing haps most significant, AIDS compels so- enough? The answer is most certainly no cieties to confront issues and aspects of if the number of lives at risk is consid- the human condition that are otherwise ered. Yet world priorities have seldom easilyignored.Whileheightening bowed to the exigencies of body counts. awareness, the disease does not dictate In 1988, industrial countries probably our response. How societies choose to 143 Responding to AIDS (129) act on the issues raised by AIDS may tackle the problem itself. AIDS has been stand as a key measure of our time.67 blamed on everything from Western Like all crises, AIDS has brought out decadence to sexual promiscuity among the best and the worst of human nature. Africans. Such accusations have merely The pulling together of the American bred resentment, encouraged denial, gay community to respond to a crisis and thwarted the global cooperation so within its ranks, the generous and often desperately needed to fightthis dis- courageous actions of thousands of pro- ease." fessional and voluntary caregivers, and The potential for discrimination and the outpouring of global resources and persecution is so great, in fact, that Jona- talent to fight the disease are all expres- than Mann recently made an unprece- sions of human compassion at its best. dented call for an international human But if compassion has been at work, so rights network to monitor discrimina- too have fear and denial ea tion and abuse against HIV-infected in- AIDS has aroused mean-spirited and dividuals. Without a supportive and tol- irrational responses, often provoked by erantsocialenvironment,fearand gross misperceptions about how the dis- retribution will undermine communica- ease can be transmitted. American chil- tion, reinforce prejudice, and make in- dren with AIDS have been barred from fected people unwilling to come for- school, despite repeated assurances by ward. Indeed, health officials consider health professionals that they pose no tolerance so important to AIDS control risk to other students. In Colombia, one that the London World Summit of man with AIDS was forced to guard his Health Ministers and the U.S. Presiden- house with a shotgun to keep villagers tial Commission on the Human Im- from burning it down to avoid "contami- munodeficiency Virus Epidemic both nation." And in the United States, gay endorsed antidiscrimination policies as a rights groups note that physical attacks top AIDS priority." i against homosexuals have risen sharply In addition to exposing human vul- since the epidemic began.69 nerabilities, AIDS has thrown into sharp relief certain inadequacies and inequities in the existing social order. The cri- AIDS has thrown into sharp relief sis has underscored the dismal state of inadequacies and inequities in the health infrastructure in the developing world, where even syringes are in short existing social order. supply. It has highlighted the structural flaws in economic systems that fail to provide gainful alternatives to prostitu- These panic responses have been tion and drug dealing. And in the United made worse by the fact that AIDS first States, it has made painfully obvious struckalreadystigmatizedpopula- shortcomings in the nation's health care tionsgay men, IV drug users, and for- system: the underfunding of preventive eigners in the West; prostitutes and health measures, the lack of care options those with multiple sex partners in defor the chronically ill, and the plight of veloping countries. This has reinforced the poor and uninsured. thinly veiled prejudices and encouraged By highlighting these flaws and adding scapegoating. Regrettably, the global a sense of urgency, AIDS may galvanize mobilization against AIDS has been societies to tackle the underlying prob- hampered by the human tendency to lems that allow HIV to flourish. Stop- blame others for a problem rather than ping AIDS among drug users, for exam- (130 Slate of the World 1989 pie, may have more to do in the long about 1.5 percent of the male popula- term with fighting unemployment, pov- tionand twice as many bisexuals.74 erty, and welfare dependence than with It is in the area of health care, how- needle exchange or more treatment. As ever, that AIDS will likely catalyze the Harvey Fineberg, Dean of Harvard's greatest changes. In both industrial and School of PublicHealth,observes: developingcountries,forexample, "Jobs, schools and housing.. .would go AIDS is already encouraging a shift from a long way toward creating the individ- hospital to community- or home-based ual self-respect, dignity and hope for the cart to limit cost and preserve vital hos- future that can forestall the turning to pital beds. Interestingly, AIDS' influ- drugs in the first place." Similarly, socie- ence to date appears to be operating ties may come to realize that prostitution through its ability to overwhelm local is seldom a profession of choice, but one health care services rather than through of economic necessity. Already, a family its impact on national health care expen- planning association in Ghana is fighting ditures. In the United States, the cost of AIDS by retraining prostitutes in other AIDS treatment and prevention ac- types of work.72 counted for only 0.4 percent of total AIDS has also forced societies to look medical spending in1986. Even by again and with new eyes at issues such as 1991, AIDS will likely account for only sex education in schools, drug addiction, 1.5 per( ent of U.S. health expenditures, and the standards of public discourse. The urgency of AIDS has encouraged largely because deaths from other dis- reappraisal of the appropriateness of eases will still overwhelm those from certain interventions and has tabled de- AIDS.7s bates over offending "public sensibili- In the world's hardest-hit cities, how- ties." Formerly taboo subjects such as ever, the financial and health impacts of condoms are now topics of conversation AIDS are already substantial. By 1991, in settings as diverse as western dinner AIDS patients will occupy one out of parties and village tea stalls. In the So- every four hospital beds in New York viet Union, Vadim Pokrovskiy, director City, a proportion already exceeded in of the Moscow AIDS Clinic, appeared on some central African cities. In fiscal year television in August 1987, strongly urg- 1988, San Francisco spent $17 million of ing the use of condoms. Such frankness city funds on AIDS; New York plans to in Soviet broadcasting would have been spend $170 million in 1989. Medical unthinkable in a world without AIDS" care alone for San Francisco's AIDS pa- Indeed, AIDS has forged is own spe- tients in 1991 is expected to cost some cial form of glasnost in the Eastern bloc. $350 per city resident. Of course, city For the first time, governments are re- taxpayers will share these costs with pri- sponding with candor about the exis- vate insurers, the federal government, tence of drug abuse, prostitution, and and the patients themselves, but the homosexuality withintheirsocieties. local burden will still be great.76 Bulgaria, for example, now acknowl- Facedwithsuchburdens,cities edges some 600 addicts in a population around the world are experimenting of 9 million. The Soviet Union has gone with new models of community-based from denying that drug addiction exists care that may forever change how socie- to implementing a program to register ties cope with chronic illness. San Fran- addicts. And the Polish weekly Polityka cisco, which pioneered this approach, now reports that Poland has approxi- now has expanded hospice care, im- mately270,000 homosexual men proved home nursing, residential radii-

i 4 3 Responding to AIDS (131) ties for patients who are homeless, and our humanity. What if scientists develop outpatient clinics for AIDS treatment. a solution to AIDS that works in indus- Cost per patient has declined, as has the trial nations but is either impractical or percentage of patients requiring hospi- too costly for the developing world? Will talization and the average hospital stay. western nations consider further AIDS Likewise, in southern Zambia, Chikan- research apriority? Or will AIDS kata Hospital has cooperated with the become like schistosomiasis and other Salvation Army toestablishroving Third World diseases that can be ig- health teams that care for and counsel nored because Americans and Euro- AIDS patients in their homes. In 1987, peans are not dying? What if AIDS the program avoided an estimated 35 becomes largely a disease of minorities hospital admissions. more than paying and drug users? Will money for treat- for itself." ment and prevention still be forthcom- Ultimately, the power of AIDS lies in ing? As Jonathan Mann observes, "AIDS its ability to reveal ourselves to our- will. .. put our global conscience to the selves. AIDS raises the questions, and test." Let us hope that compassion and the quality of our response may define tolerance prevail. 8 Enhancing Global Security Michael Renner

National security has traditionally been tutes security. But the debate is in flux: defined almost exclusively in military the essence of security, the threats to it, terms. As a concept, it is invoked to jus- and the means to achieve and preserve it tify the expenditure of enormous sums need to be reappraised. of money, the maintenance of large Military means are no longer adequate armed forces, the deployment of ever- to provide tangible security benefits. Al- newer weapons systems, the interven- though they may at times in the past tion by stronger powers in the affairs of have been too weak to repel an attacker, weaker nations, or even the violation of ironically now they are often too strong. human rights at home. After 1945, the In the age of weapons of mass destruc- cold war elevated such considerations to tion, the world faces a fundamental secu- new heights. ritydilemma. The accumulation of But perceived in these terms, national weapons and the growth of military security is an outmoded concept. In- power tends to diminish the security of deed, we are now witnessing an era in an opponent more than it adds to a na- which the old bipolar, superpower-dom- tion's own security. National security inated system seems to be evolving into policies have yielded international in- a multipolar and more interdependent security.' world, undermining the foundations of No doubt nuclear weapons are the the cold war; in which there are more most extreme example. Gene Sharp, di- stirrings than cohesion within the mili- rector of the Program on Nonviolent tary blocs; in which "geo-economics" Sanctions in Conflict and Defense at seems to rival geopolitics as a focus of Harvard University, has perceptively concern; and in which ecological threats said that "the capacity to defend in order are ascending to the top of the interna- to deter [an attacker] has been replaced tional agenda. There are still! no widely by the capability to destroy massively accepted ways to measure what consti- without the ability to defend." Warfare is

I Enhancing Global Security (133) no longer limited to a delineated battle- A WORLD AT WAR field, and the distinction between corn- batamsandcivilianshasbecome Through the course of human history, blurred. Modem technology has given the ability to wage war, in either defen- even so-called conventional weapons a sive or offensive fashion, has become degree of range, accuracy, and destruc- more organized and institutionalized. tive power that renders a viable defense "Progressing" from standing armies to difficult if not impossible. In the Iran- launch-on-warning, war preparation has Iraq war, for example, both belligerents' become a permanent endeavor, often no cities were vulnerable to escalating mis- longer related to any particular. identi- sile attacics.2 fiable threat. The notion that countries But military prowess has not lost its should be able to defend themselves usefulness in the eyes of those who wield from any conceivable threat at all times it. By using it, or threatening to, govern- has found near-universal acceptance. As ments still hope to coerce other nations, a result. the war-making institutions to influence their economic policies and the armed forces, the national security political systems, or to secure desired re- bureaucracy, the military intelligence sources on their own terms. The world agencieshave become fixtures of na- community has accepted a definition of tional life, supported by a permanent security that focuses almost exclusively war economy. on this attitude. The world has spent an estimated$16 trillionformilitarypurposessince Yet the security of nations depends at World War II;annual expenditures leastIs much on economic well-being, reached$825billion in1986(both in social justice, and ecologicalstabil- 1984dollars). (See Figure8 -1.)Adjusted ity. Environmental problemsclimate for inflation, industrial countries have change, ozone depletion, Iran s boundary doubled their outlays since1960.while air pollution, land degradation, defor- the Third World has increased its expen- estation, and soil erosionthreaten to ditures more than sixfold. Developing destroy the human habitat and under- countries' share of world military spend- mine economies everywhere. Pursuing military security at the cost of social, economic, and environmental well-being is 101 ion akin to dismantling a house to salvage Dollars materials to erect a fence around it. 800 In an age in which civilian and military 984 dollars) technology has given governments and corporations a global reach, purely national means are fast becoming obsolete, while real security is increasingly to be found in global cooperation. If the world's nations want true security, they need to devote greater energies to developing reliable mechanisms for nonviolent dispute settlement. If security policies are to be relevant to society's future Source SIPRI security needs, they need to be reori- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 ented to meet looming environmental Figure 8-1, World Military Expenditures, dangers. 195045

14.4 a ('34) State of Me World 1989 ing rose from 6 percent of the world tries of such important producers as total in 1965 to 18 percent by the mid- China. eighties.3 Although the superpowers and their The world's armed forces are some 29 European allies are responsible for three million strong, equivalent to the popula- quarters of global military spending, tion of Argentina; a further 11 million militarizationisspreading worldwide people at least are employed in the along numerous avenues: military al- world's arms industries. (See Table 8-1.) liances, bases on foreign territories (with These numbers understate the real ex- a, least 1.8 million military personnel tent of militarization because they do not stationed in some 68 countries), and include militias and other paramilitary military training programs and joint ma- forces and because there are no esti- neuvers.Perhapsmostimportant, mates for employment in arms indus- though, is the burgeoning arms trade. Table 8-1. Armed Forces and Employment in Military Industry, Selected Countries, Early to Mid-Eighties Country Workerst Soldiers* Country Workerst Soldiers* (thousands) (thousands) Soviet Union 4.800 4,500 Israel 90 195 United States 3,350 2,289 Thailand 5 270 India 280 1,515 South Africa 100 95 United Kingdom 700 335 Argentina 60 129 France 435 563 Philippines 5 157

North Korea 55 784 Peru 5 128 West Germany 290 495 Chile 3 124 Italy 160 531 Malaysia 3 124 Pakistan 40 644 Netherlands 18 103 South Korea 30 600 Sweden 28 69

Brazil 75 496 Singapore 11 59 Egypt 75 466 Austria 16 4.0 Taiwan 50 4.10 Norway 15 41 Spain 66 411 Indonesia 26 281 Total 10,791 15,884 World n.a. 29,260 'Employed in arms-producing industries.2Military and civil service personnel employed by national defense ministries. souacz.s: P. Wilke and H. Wulf. "Manpower ConversioninDefence-Related Industry." Disarmament and Employment Programme. Working Paper No. 4 (Geneva: International Labour Organisation. June 1986): Peter Southwood. "The UK Defence Industry." Peace Research Reports No. 8. University of Bradford. September 1985: U.S. Department of Defense. RationalDefense Budget Estimates for FY 1988/1989(Washing. ton. D.C.: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller). 1987); Michael Brzoska and Thomas Ohlson. "Trade in Major Conventional Weapons: The Changing Pattern."Bulletin of Peace Proposals.VoI. I7. No. 3-4, 1986: U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.World Military Expenditures and Arm Transfers 1987(Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. March 1988): Vicenc Fisas Armengol. Les Armes * la Dernocrocia(Barcelona, Spain: Fundacien Jaume BobIl. 1988). 140 Enhancing Global Security 035) Deals worth an estimated $635 billion, The quest for the ultimate weapon has On 1984 dollars) were concluded be- delivered the global community to an tween 1967 and 1986. Since 1984 the all-encompassing state of insecurity. An monetary value of weapons transfers has arsenal of 55,000 nuclear warheads declined somewhat, no doubt as a result worldwidepossessestheexplosive of worsening economic conditions in power of 160 million Chernobyls. As many Third World countries. A growing Ruth Sivard writes in WorldMilitary and number of countries, however, are ac- Social apenditures 1987-88:"Every ham- quiring the capacity to produce sophis- let has been brought within the orbit of ticated weaponry domestically.4 conflict, every inhabitant made a poten- Throughouthistory,governments tial victim of random annihilation. Mili- have sought to develop and acquire tarization presumably designed to insu- more numerous and more effective late and protect the nation state has in arms. Every major scientific discovery fact united the world's population in a has been checked for possible military precarious mutual vulnerability."6 application. Possession of the "perfect" National military power is at unprece- weapon, it was (and still is) believed, dented levels, yetor perhaps as a re- would mean absolute security, unques- sultthe number of wars and war deaths tioned superiority, and thus leverage has steadily increased over the centuries. over other nations. But ultimately, uni- Some 22 wars have been raging in the lateral advantages prove short-lived, eighties, more than in any previous fueling destabilizing arms races and decade in recorded military history. degenerating into warfare. Some 120 armed conflicts in the Third Ironically, the nation that pioneered World since 1945in terms of death, nuclear weapons development is now collectively the equivalent of World War more vulnerable than ever. A country IIhave killed at least 20 million peo- separated from most of the world's other ple. Many of these conflicts are far nations by oceans, for more than 165 removed from the minds of westerners, years the United States has had no rea- but some may be the tinderboxe. from son to fear an invasion of its territory. which a future conflict might rapidly But its possession of the atomic bomb spread to global conflagration.? spurred the Soviets and other powers to acquire such weapons as well. Later in- novationsliketheintercontinental Civilians constitute a rapidly grow- bomber, the ballistic missile, the multi- ing share of war victims. ple warhead delivery vehicle, and the cruise missile resulted in only transitory advantages. Interestingly, military aggression has Particularly since 1945, modern mili- become less successful. In the twentieth tary technology has dramatically in- century, aggressors have won only 4 out creased the destructive power of weap- of 10 wars; in the eighties, that ratio is ons, the range and speed of delivery down to 1 out of 10. Irrespective of the vehicles, and the sophistication of tar- outcome of wars, the prime losers have geting technologies. In less than 30 min- been the civilians whom the military sup- utes, a single MX missile or its Soviet posedly is protecting. Whether through counterpart can deliver a destructive direct war actions or war-induced starva- force equivalent to more than 200 Hiro- tion, civilians constitute a rapidly grow- shima bombs to within 90 meters of a ing share of war victims: they accounted target 11,000 kilometers away.s for 52 percent of all deaths in the fifties,

150 (136) Slate of the World 1989 but for 85 percent in the eighties. It is another, governments seek arms as a without exaggeration that economist means of self-help." Kenneth Boulding says: "National de- Governments frequently comprehend fense is now the greatest enemy of na- military prowess as the ultimate expres- tional security. "8 sion of national sovereignty. But reasons The conventional view of armed for the continuing arms race can also be forces guarding against external ene- found at home. Keeping a nation in a mies is becoming increasingly irrelevant. state of constant war preparation gives By far the most conflicts (and approxi- politicians, bureaucrats, and generals mately half of all war deaths) since command over an enormous share of a World War H have been in the form of society's resources and lets arms mer- "civil wars," pitching armies controlled chants derive a steady stream of profits. by unrepresentative elites against their domestic opponents. These conflicts arise from a host of social (ethnic, class. religious), political, economic, and eco- THE DRAIN OF A PERMANENT logical disputes and are fueled by sharp WAR ECONOMY inequalities. But while resort to military means may succeed in suppressing those Even in the absence of armed conflict, expressing grievances, it is unlikely to preoccupation with building military eliminate the causes of conflict.9 power can drain the vitality of nations When Third World governments ac- and lead to social neglect. On average, tually do engage in warfare against an- the world's nations spend some 6 per- other state, the combat is usually of cent of their gross national product short duration because their staying (GNP) on defense, although countries at power is severely circumscribed by lim- war allocate a considerably higher por- ited financial resources, weak civic insti- tion. (See Table 8-2.) Such a share is tutions, and a lack of regime legitimacy. routinely considered too small by many Wars of attrition risk major political and economists to elicit concern. In fact, economic breakdown. As Mohammed some observers even argue that "mili- Ayoob of the National University of Sin- tary Keynesianism"a steady stream of gapore explains: "These constraints large government contracts for weap- soon outweigh the perceived political or onsis a perfect tool for stimulating the military benefits for which the wars were economy. launched." The exceptions are found But GNP is a poor yardstick against where outside powers stoke the fires or which to measure the impact of military as in the Iran-Iraq war, where large oil spending on the civilian economy. A sta- revenues foot the bill.") tistical aggregate of monetary values, Countries lack a reliable international GNP tells little about the productive ca- framework and mechanism on which to pacities of an economy and nothing depend for security. Robert Johansen, about Itow they are being used. The mili- former president of the World Policy In- tary sector saps productive capacities far stitute, points out that "the very nature beyond the effect suggested by a simple of the system of sovereign states encour- comparison with GNP. is ages armed rivalry between govern- In fact, as a new cold war chilled rela- ments. Because the system provides no tions between the world's nations durig impartial, dependable way to prevent the eighties, global military expendi- one government from violently coercing tures rose rapidly, while GNP growth

151 Enhancing Global Security (137) Table 8-2. Military Share of Gross When improving people's living stan- National Product, Selected Countries, dards requires all available resources for 1984 productive investment, everydollar, rupee, peso, or naira spent for the mili- Country Share tary is money forgone for human devel- (percent) opment. When arms take precedence over Iraq 50.0 needs basic to human development, Israel 27.1 people are not secure. The present pri- Saudi Arabia 21.7 orities of the international system de- Syria 16.6 pletescarceresourcesrequiredfor Angola 14.2 meeting basic human needs: they leave Iran 13.3 some 770 million persons malnourished, Libya 12.9 14 million children dying of hunger-re- Nicaragua 12.4 lated causes each year, some 1.3 billion Soviet Union 11.5 people without access to safe drinking Chad 10.4 water, 100 million individuals without North Korea 10.2 adequate shelter, and 880 million adults Ethiopia 9.3 unable to read and write. President Egypt 8.5 Dwight D. Eisenhower put it eloquently China 7.0 36 years ago: "Every gun that is made, Afghanistan 7.0 every warship launched, every rocket United States 6.4 fired represents, in the final analysis, a South Korea 5.4 theft from those who hunger and are not United Kingdom 5.4 fed, who are cold and are not clothed." is East Gemtany 4.9 Soaring arms imports have contri- France 4.1 buted to bloated foreign debt: had non- South Africa 4.0 oil-exporting developing countries West Germany 3.3 made no foreign arms purchases during India 3.2 1972-82, their accumulated debts by the Japan 1.0 end of that period would have been at Brazil 0.8 least 15 percentsmalier, and perhaps as World Average 5.6 much as 25 percent. Cumulative Third World military expenditures between SOURCE: Ruth Leger Sivard. World Military and So- 1977 and 1982 alone were greater than cialExpenditures1987-88 (Washington,D.C.: World Priorities. 1988). their total debt outstanding in 1982 the year the debt crisis first erupted. continued its downward trend. For the Lloyd Dumas, Professor of Political first time since 1960, the growth in glo- Economy at the University of Texas, has bal military outlays exceeded that of pointed out that "if the Third World's world economic output. (See Table share of world military spending had 8-3.) been the same in those years as it was in Although the military expenditures of the early sixties, the less developed na- most Third World countries are minute tions as a group would have saved compared with those of the superpow- enough money from this one source to erseither one of which spends more finance repayment of nearly two-thirds than developing countries combined of their outstanding debt."14 they nonetheless entail a heavy burden Huge foreign debts, no matter what for their economies and populations. their origin, are serious threats to the

152 (r38) State of the World 1989 Table 8.3. Annual Growth of World Economic Output and Military Expenditures, 1960-851

Region 1960-70 1970-80 1980-85 1960-85 (percent) Western Industrial Countries Gross National Product 4.9 3.1 2.2 3.6 Military Spending 2.9 -0.8 5.7 2.0

Third World? Gross National Product 7.6 6.2 3.1 6.1 Military Spending 11.7 2.7 2.1 6.1

Centrally Planned Economiess Gross National Product 4.4 3.3 1.7 3.4 Military Spending 3.2 3.9 1.3 3.1

World Average Gross National Product 5.0 3.5 2.2 3.9 Military Spending 4.1 1.6 3.2 2.9 'Military spending figures are for 1961: annual growth rates calculated from data expressed in constant 1986 dollars.tlncludes China.sEstimates for centrally planned economies are likely to have a wide margin of error. sounces: Worldwalch Institute, based on U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Handbook of Economic Statistics 1987, (Springfield, Va: National Technical Information Service. 1987), and U.S. Arms Control and Disar- mament Agency, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prim- ing Office, various editions). economic security of many Third World recognized. Civilian R&D and capital countries. By siphoning off financial re- and consumer goods production have sources needed for investment and so- suffered enormously as the prerogatives cial spending, debt servicing impairs of the arms race assigned top priority in economic development and sacrifices resource allocation and high-quality in- economic well-being. puts to military projects. For wealthy, industrialized countries, The tremendous demands of military the negative consequences of maintain- spending share a good deal of the blame ing a permanent war economy are less for transforming the Soviet and East dramatic, but no less pervasive. Both the European economies into economic United States and the Soviet Union, for backwaters. In the late fifties, according example, have spent enough on the mili- to Seymour Melman, Professor Emeritus tary to cause a deterioration of vital in- of Industrial Engineering at Columbia frastructure, a retardation of civilian re- University, the Soviet Union was on the search and development, and a loss of verge of becoming an efficient mass pro- competitiveness. Soviet leader Mikhail ducer of machine tools, with the pros- Gorbachev is well aware that the arms pect of assuming a world leadership role race with the United States needs to be in the field. That promise never materi- brought under control if the ailing So- alized, however, because the money and viet economy is to be invigorated. The talent to develop a competitive industry nation's chronic shortages of consumer were redirected to a massive military goods and their low quality are widely space program. Today, the Soviets find

s-,_. " tio Enhancing Global Security (139) they are unable to compete in world in- India. 13 percent in West Germany and dustrial markets, having been bypassed Australia, and below 5 percent in Switz- in high-tech development by newly in- erland, Norway. and japan.") dustrialized countries such as Brazil and The military share is lower when pri- South Korea.15 vate R&D funds are taken into consider- The United States, too, faces trouble ation, but the discrepancy in priorities across its economic landscape. While the between different countries remains. military has enjoyed a cornucopia. civil- (See Table 8-4.) Overall, some 25-30 ian infrasclicture has been starved of percent of U.S scientists and engineers funds. The amount of capital devoted by are engaged in military-related work. the United States to building military This is a much higher proportion than, power of colossal proportions ($8.4 tril- for example, in either West Germany or lion between 1948 and 1988, in 1984 japan.12 prices) exceeds the cumulatiie money value of all human-made wealth in the United States. An estimated two thirds Heavy emphasis on defense-related of the products of this civilian "fixed re- R&D impairs a country's innova- producible tangible wealth "industrial tive capacity. plants and machinery, communications andtransportsystems,buildings, bridges, water and sewage systems, and so onare now in dire need of recon- Proponents of large-scalemilitary struction.16 spending contend that while resources The most critical impact of military are diverted from the civilian economy, spending is perhaps in the area of re- scientific breakthroughs from defense- search and development. The research related research more than offset that intensity of military prodtc;-: has been disadvantage. But relative to the lavish estimated to be about 20 times that of resources devoted to military R&D. the civilian products. A heavy emphasis on "spinoffs" have been minimal. Gener- defense-related R&D impairs a country's ally, the results of applied research, innovative capacity by pointing scientific which constitutes the bulk of military re- talent toward the military. A large pool search, are less transferable than those of a nation's talents are then unavailable of basic R&D. In the military realm, to keep industry at the competitive edge. product specifications are geared to or to develop less polluting production maximum performance, with little atten- technologies, improve energy efficiency. tion devoted to cost. These criteria are and advance renewable sources of en- increasingly divergent from those of ci- ergy." vilian products, for which durability arid World military R&Destimated to low cost, not the extreme demands of total at least $80 billion in 1985ac- combat conditions, are key.20 counts for roughly a quarter of all R&D Simon Ramo, a cofounder of TRW funds and for a comparable portion of all Inc., one of the leading U.S. military the scientists and engineers engaged in contractors, admitted in1980that "in research. The share of public R&D out- the past thirty years. had the total dollars lays that goes to the military is as high as we spent on military R&D been ex- 70 percent in the United States, 60 per- pended instead in those areas of science cent in the Soviet Union, and 50 percent and technology promising the most eco- in the United Kingdom. It demands nomic progress, we probably would be much It.wer shares. however, in most today where we are going to find our- other countries, such as 19 percent in selves arriving in the year 2000."21 (140) State of the World 1989 Table 84. Military and Civilian R&Di inSelectedCountries, 1971 and 1986 1971 Expenditures 1986 Expenditures Military Military Country Military Civilian Share Military Civilian Share (billion dollars) (percent) (billion dollars) (percent) United States 8.50 18.2 31.82 37.3 79.4 32.03 United Kingdoms 0.80 2.3 26.1 3.5 8.5 29.3 France 0.604 3.04 16.8 3.5 14.6 19.5 West Germany 0.40 4.7 7.3 1.4 26.1 5.1 Japan 0.03 4-8 0.5 0.33 44.05 0.7 lIncludes governmentand privatelyfundedR&D,2Understates the total military share becausemili- tary-relatedR &D ofthe federal space programisnot included: including space. the military share may be as high as40percent in1986.'British dataare for 1972and1985.41972.51989. SOURCE: Worldwatch institute,calculatedfrom internationalMonetaryFund.lnlernalional Financial Slalislics l'earbook 1987(Washington.D.C.: 1987).and from National ScienceBoard. Science and Engineering Indicators 1987(Washington.D.C.: U.S.Government Printing Office.1987). To theextentthatspinoffsare ment Research Associates in Michigan achieved, they could be accomplished found that military outlays generate less more directly and at considerably lower employment per dollar spent than civil- cost through civilian scientific studies. ian expenditures do. There isalso Research by Professor David Noble of strong evidence that large-scale military Drexel University in Philadelphia, for ex- spending "accelerates inflation in peri- ample, demonstrates that the U.S. Air ods of full employment and limits the fall Force's sponsorship of computer-con- in the inflation rate in deflationary peri- trolled machine tools resulted in an ods."24 overly complex and expensive technol- Militarylargesse cannot alone be ogy that failed to keep American indus- blamed for all the troubles of the U.S. try competitive with Japan 29 economy. But it has strongly contri- Large-scalemilitary spending pre- buted. A combination of record peace- empts capital from civilian investments. time military spending and tax policies In the United States, according to Pro- that reduced federal revenues triggered fessor Dumas of the University of Texas, a dramatic rise in federal budget defi- the physical capital controlled by the cits in the eighties. These deficits have Pentagon in1983-valued conserva- primarily been financed by an enor- tively at $475 billion-was equivalent to mous inflow f foreign capital. If this almost half that owned by all U.S. manu- capital inf!aw were to stop, the Federal facturers, including the 20,000 prime Reserve would be confronted with a di- military contractors and over 100,000 lemma, Dumas points out: either "to subcontractors. The military's net in- finance the huge deficits and risk infla- vestment in plant and equipment in tion, or refuse to finance them and risk 1982 equaled nearly 38 percent of the depression."25 investments inplantequipment under- Decades of heavy military spending taken by all U.S. manufacturers." have strongly contributed to a deteriora- The effects of long years of military tionincivilianproductivity growth, priorities are also apparent in the areas which in turn has undermined the ability of unemployment and inflation. A 1988 of U.S. industry to remain cost-competi- study by Michael Dee Oden of Employ- tive. Compounded by a strong dollar in

-1- ,....- Enhancing Global Security (141) the early eighties, this led to a loss ofbounds, are the only winners of the domestic and overseas markets and superpower arms race. hence to a growing trade gap. (See Fig- ure 8-2.) Between 1981 and 1984. 42 percent of the growth of U.S. domestic consumer spending went to imports. But the bloated dollar masked the erosion of ENVIRONMENT AND SECURITY the country's fundamental competitiveness. Its value against other western cur- Countries are prepared to make consid- rencies fell by 30 percent between 1985 erable sacrifices in order to defend their and 1987, but did virtually nothing to national sovereignty and territory. Envi- ronmental degradation is a more funda- shrink the trade deficit Y6 mental, if sometimes subtler, threat to Until 1980. the United States never the security of virtually all nations. It un- registered a trade deficit in manufac- dermines the very support systems on tured goods. Today, imports are no lon- which human activity depends and even- ger restricted to low-tech, labor-inten- tually manifests itself as a threat to eco- sive industries, but are booming in areas nomic well-being. But most countries of traditional U.S. strengthsuch as au- are doing precious little to preserve their iomobiles, consumer electronics, metal- environmentalsecurity. The United cutting machine tools, steel, and semi- States, for example. spent some $273 conductors. In 1984, the United States billion in 1986 to defend against poorly experienced its first-ever trade deficit in defined foreign military threats. but only electronics." $78 billion (of which $60 billion were It is no surprise that the dispropor- private funds) to deal with very concrete tionate amount of resources and talent environmental pollution threats.28 devoted tomilitary purposes in the It may be that ecological threats gener- United States has adversely affected its ate less attention because often they are competitiveness in the world market. homespun. As Wendell Berry. noted Countries such as Japan, which has American writer and farmer, has asked: kept its military spending within tight "To what point. ..do we defend from foreign enemies a country that we are destroying ourselves? In spite of all our propagandists can do, the foreign threat inevitably seems diminished when our air is unsafe to breathe, when our drinking water is unsafe to drink, when our rivers carry tonnages of topsoil that make light of the freight they carry in boats, when our forests are dying from air pollution and acid rain, and when we ourselves are sick from poisons in the air. Who are the enemies of this country?"29 But pollution respects no human- drawn borders: it jeopardizes not only 300 the security of the country from which it 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 emanates, but also that of its neighbors. Figure 8-2. US. Miters &podium There is thus a fundamental contradic- sod Budget Whits, 1950-88 tion between the illusion of national sov- (142) Stale of the World 1989 ereignty and the reality of transbound- tween nations, yet silt accumulation can aryenvironmental degradation.Our lead to more frequent and devastating Common Future,the report of the World floods. This has happened in Ban- Commission on Environment and De- gladesh, for instance, where years of development (the Brundtland Commis- forestation in the Himalayas have led to sion), put the dilemma succinctly: "The increased soil erosion and, as a conse- Earth is one but the world is not. We all quence, to siltation of the rivers entering depend on one biosphere for sustaining that country. The latest flood, in Sep- our lives. Yet each community, each tember 1988, is now considered to be country, strives for survival and prosper- the worst ever. Such catastrophes can ity with little regard for its impact on only be effectively counteracted if Ban- others."so gladesh, India, Nepal, and China all Throughout human history, struggles agree to cooperate in reforestation and over access to and control over natural reduction of soil erosiona task that resourcesland, water,energy, and seems daunting indeed." mineralshave been a root cause of tension and armed conflict. But disputes over the allocation of resources are in- Environmental degradation is rap- creasinglyaggravated by the rapid idly becoming a source of interna- deterioration of resource quality. In some cases, environmental degradation tional tension. is i .pidly becoming a prominent source of it.; ernational tension. Border-transcendingenvironmental The rapid evaporation of the Aral Sea degradation most immediately affects in the central Asian region of the Soviet neighboring countries, as illustrated by Union (due to excessive draining for irri- disputes over water resources. An es- gation purposes of rivers feeding the timated 40 percent of the world's popu- sea) is having detrimental effects on relation depends on the 214 major river gional agriculture, fisheries, vegetation, systems shared by two or more countries and climate patterns. The climatic im- for drinking water, irrigation, or hydro- pact might well be felt as far away as power 12 of these basins are snared by Afghanistan and Iran, for the Aral Sea five or more countries. Disputes revolve absorbs solar energy, thus moderating around water diversion or reduced water winters and making possible a longer flow, industrial pollution, the salination growing season." or siltation of streams, and floods ag- Trans boundary air pollution provides gravated by soil erosion." another example, with perhaps even For example, control over the Nile wa- more worrisome consequences. Acid ters is a matter that casts a long shadow rain is destroying aquatic life and forests overrelationsbetweenEgypt,the throughout central Europe and North Sudan, and Ethiopia. Butros Ghali, America. Massive damage from acid Egypt's Foreign Minister, warned in deposition in Canada (more than 50 per- early 1985: "The next war in our region cent of which comes from U.S. sources) will be over the waters of the Nile, not has caused considerable diplomatic fric- politics." Similar disputes simmer in vir- tions between Canada and the United tually all parts of the world. (See Table States, because the latter has doggedly 8-5.)32 refused to consider additional measures Soil erosion might seem less directly to reduce emissions of sulfur and nitro- implicated as a source of tension be- gen oxides.35

/5 7 Enhancing Global Security (143) Table 8-5. International Water Disputes, Mid-Eighties Body of Water Countries Involved in Dispute Subject of Dispute Nile Egypt. Ethiopia, Sudan Level of water flow

Euphrates, TigrisIraq, Syria, Turkey Dams, water flow

Jordan. Litani, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria Water flow Yarmuk

Indus, Sutlei India. Pakistan Irrigation

Ganges Bangladesh. India Siltation, flooding

Mekong Kampuchea, Laos, Thailand, Water flow Vietnam

Parana Argentina, Brazil Dam, land inundation

Lauca Bolivia, Chile Dam, salinization

Rio Grande, Mexico, United States Salinization, water flow, Colorado agrochemical pollutioa

Great Lakes Canada, United States Water diversion

Rhine France, Netherlands, Switzerland. Industrial pollution West Germany

Elbe Czechoslovakia, East Germany. Industrial pollution West Germany

Szamos Hungary, Romania Industrial pollution souacc: Worldwatch institute. based on various sources. "Toxic clouds" carrying hazardous larly, insecticides from Asia and south- substances can traverse the entire globe ern Europe are found in Arctic and Ant- before dispersing or falling down to arctic waters.36 earth. A case in point is the pesticide Increasingly, environmental degrada- DDT. Though its use has been prohib- tion is having ., truly all-encompassing, ited in the United States since 1972, it is global effect,inthe sense that no single neverthelessstillproduced and ex- nation can hope to escape the danger. ported to many developing countries, The growing hole in the ozone layer where no laws govern its use. DDT poses grave threats to human health, ag- sprayed in Central America is known to ricultural productivity, and marine fish- have contaminated the upper Great eries. (See Chapter 5,) Similarly, the Lakes, and the pesticide even returns in buildup of carbon dioxide and other imported agricultural produce. Simi- trace gases is leading to rising global

.1 ."-.7) e.1 L.)' (IV) Stale of the World 1989 temperaturesandpotentiallycata- on similar issues run high between Ire- strophic climate shifts. (See Chapters 1 land and the United Kingdom, between and 10.) The security of entire nations is Austria (whose nuclear program was compromised by the impending dangers abandoned in 1978) and both West Ger- of shifting precipitation patterns, rising many andCzechoslovakia,between sea levels, and disrupted crop-growing Hong Kong and China. and between Ar- regions. While all of humanity will suffer gentina and Chile." from the repercussions, ozone depletion The contradiction between national and global warming are caused primarily sovereignty and the international impact by industrial countries, which account of environmental degradation is exacer- for 84 percent of chlorofluorocarbon bated by the wide discrepancies in the (CFC) production and 69 percent of car- stage of industrial development and the bon dioxide emissions.97 capacity for effective action that different Nuclear power provides an important countries find themselves in. For exam- example of both the global effects of en- ple, strict regulations, increased public vironmental destruction and the trans- opposition to landfills and incinerators, boundarypoliticalproblemsitcan and consequently rising costs for haz- cause. The powerful explosion at Cher- ardous waste disposal in industrial coun- nobyl on April 26, 1986, hurled radioac- tries have led to a proliferation of legal tive debris far into the atmosphere and and illegal shipments to developing na- across large areas of the planet's north- tionsparticularly those on the African ern hemisphere. The recriminations continentwith little or no environmen- against the Soviet Union for failing to tal legislation. The dumping of Italian provide an adequate and timely warning toxic wastes in Nigeria in 1988 cast a of the accident have demonstrated the spotlight on such shadowy deals.39 potential of such incidents for raising in- Conflicts over the allocation of natural ternational tensions. resources have lent themselves, at least in the view of competing governments, to military solutions. But in the face of Military means cannot reverse re- transnationalpollution,azero-sum source depletion or restore lost game is transformed into a no-win situation. National defense establishments ecological balance. are powerless against environmental threats. As technologically sophisticated as they may be, military means cannot As popular awareness of the dangers reverse resource depletion or restore of nuclear power has grown, so have lost ecological balance. In fact, an em- strains between nations over the con- phasis on military strength compounds struction and siting of reactors, enrich- the problem. As described in the previ- ment and reprocessing facilities, and ra- ous section, the ability to deal effectively dioactive waste dumps. In Europe, 119 with the challenges arising from envi- nuclear power plants are located within ronmental degradation is compromised 100 kilometers of a national border. The by the continued global arms race. Danish parliament decided to ask Swe- Predictably, national governments are den to close a plant 30 kilometers from reluctant to relinquish any of their hard- Copenhagen. The French government won sovereign rights. At a conference of rejected a similar plea by local West Ger- European environmental ministers con- man authorities to cancel construction vened to work out a cleanup program for of four reactors at Cattenom. Tensions the Rhine, for example, France, Switzer-

1 'i f*tj Enhancing Global Security (145) land, and West Germany objected to a the development and deployment of Dutch recommendationforinterna- more-sophisticated technology. Since tional inspection of suspected pollution 1972, the Strategic Arms Limitation sites, arguing that such action would vio- Talks treaties allowed the superpowers late national sovereignty.40 to add almost 13,000 warheads to their But absolute sovereignty is no longer strateg.c nuclear stockpiles.41 a workable concept. Exclusively national A Strategic Arms Reductions Talks policies are ill suited for a world that (START) accord, if it becomes reality, faces border-transcending environmen- would cut strategic nuclear weapons by tal destruction of an unprecedented 30-35 percent, returning warhead num- scope. Without effective "environmental bers to the level prevalent in the late diplomacy" that yieldsmultinational seventies. But fixation on numerical lim- agreements to limit or ban the produc- its alonehowever "deep" a cut may be tion of substances inimical to the envi- envisionedwill fail to arrest the most ronment, each country isleft at the dynamic aspects of the arms race. Scien- mercy of others' actions. Environmental tists never stop conceiving of new tech- security depends critically on interna- nologies, and military strategists always tional coordination and cooperation. seem to discover new security threats and new weapons "gaps" to justify their deployment. As currently envisioned, a START accord would in no way slow the tide of new weapons planned or on the drawing board. Terminating the arms FROM OFFENSE TO DEFENSE race and releasing substantial resources AND PEACEKEEPING for productive use requires a curb on further development, production, and After a decade of runaway military deployment of new warheads and deliv- spending, the nineties may provide an ery systems.42 opportunity for redirecting security poli- Cloaked in secrecy, arms negotiations cies. More-stringent U.S. federal spend-.tend to get bogged down because there ing limits, Gorbachev's disarmament is little pressure to compromise. "Inde- overtures, the onerous debt burden in pendent initiatives" may prove more the Third World, and, perhaps most im- fruitful. Taken outside the realm of for- portant, the popular yearning for a less mal bargaining sessions, they seek to heavily armed world could set the stage bring the weight of world public opinion for far-reaching arms reductions. Re- to bear on the process. Either the U.S. or versing the global arms race not only the Soviet government, for example, promises greater security, but also al- might publicly announce it will refrain lows governments to free the resources from testing and deploying any new nu- needed to address pressing social, eco- clear weapons for a specified period. If nomic, and environmental problems reciprocawd by the other government, across the globe. that constraint could be extended for an The record of traditional arms control indefinite period, and at a later point be is not reassuring. Instead of putting a codified in a formal accord.43 brake on military competition, super- General Secretary Gorbachev has in power agreements have served as a fact taken this approach in an effort to smokescreen for relentless war prepara- break the arms control stalemate. Unfor- tion: tailored to establish weak limits for tunately,hisinitiativeshavebeen aging weapons systems, they stimulated brushed aside by western leaders as (146) Stale of the World 1989 mere propaganda ploys. A constructive cabulary of Soviet generals and party American responsetesting the sincer- leaders. Gorbachev has coined the term ity of these proposalsmight create a "reasonable sufficiency" to guide the positive dynamic in the superpower rela- transition of Soviet military doctrine tionship. If such initial steps proved suc- from offense to defense. In July 1988 the cessful, they could build the trust neces- Warsaw Pact nations formally proposed sary to move toward disarmament.44 a three-step conventional arms reduce As frightening as a world wired with tions process in Europe.46 explosives is, many people find it hard to A defensive footing not only promises conceive of a practical alternative to it. greater military stability, it also is an im- This is a profound obstacle to disarma- portant way station on the path toward ment. Governments and ordinary citi- disarmament. A sober reassessment of zens alike need a roadmap that gives mutual intentions, interests, and security them a measure of confidence that they needs would likely show that the. as. can navigate this largely uncharted terri- sumptions that have guided security tory. Although most governments em- policies in the postWorld War II era are ploy not a single person for such pur- seriously outdated. If so, reduced reli- poses, nongovernmental groups have ance on weapons may become more pal- put their imaginations to work. atable. The debate over alternative defense It may seem unrealistic to envision a has simmered for many years within aca- world without war. But it is perhaps less demic and peace movement circles. But reasonable to expect humanity to sur- it has gathered momentum in Europe, as vive with a nuclear sword of Damocles denuclearization and a reduction of conventional forces have suddenly become hanging over it indefinitely. A world in serious options in the wake of the Inter- which the use of force becomes increas- mediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty. A ingly delegitimized does not abolish na- "nonprovocative defense" would in- tion- states; rather, it would enable states volve a fundamental restructuring of the to resolve internal and external disputes armed forcesweapons, personnel, and more safely, without resort to armed strategiesso that they can defend but conflict and the prospect of mutual anni- lack the ability to attack. It may be dif- hilation. ficult to determine whether a particular It has been a quarter-century since the weapon has defensive or offensive prop- superpowersseriouslycontemplated erties, but the litmus test is whether a general and complete disarmament. In defensive system increases a nation's se- 1961, they agreed on the McCloy-Zorin curity without threatening the security of Joint Statement of Agreed Principles for others.45 Disarmament Negotiations, the terms of In' the eighties, alternative defense which were unanimously adopted by the has, in the words of Hal Harvey, director U.N. General Assembly that September. of the security program at the Rocky The statement contained guidelines for Mountain Institute, "graduated from multilateral negotiations to design and theory to politic:,." The Danish parlia- implement an internationally acceptable ment has established a research center disarmament program. In1962, the to study nonoffensive defense, and the Kennedy administration presented a Social Democratic Party in West Ger- treaty outline to an international confer- many and the Labour Party in the United ence and distributed its provisions in a Kingdom are advocating such policies. document entitled Blueprint for the Peace Similar concepts have entered the vo- Race. By late 1963, however, that ap-

6JI./ J.. Enhancing Global Security (147) proach had been shunted aside in favor lite monitoring. In the United States, , of arms contro1.47 Representative Robert Mrazek has intro- Almost three decades and an incon- duced a bill to investigate how satellite clusive arms race later, the merits of dis- monitoring can increase international armament areworthreconsidering. security and stability.50 Recognizing the dire military and eco- The greatest hope for reining in the nomic implications of the arms race, in arms race lies with the vocal and insis- January 1986 Mikhail Gorbachev pre- tent pressure that has emerged from the sented a plan to rid I:le world of all nu- grassroots, paralleling the movement in clear weapons by the end of the century. the environment and development field. It remains to be seen whether the new (See Chapter 9.) People everywhere are administration under George Bush is less and less inclined to leave the re- prepared to take up the Gorbachev chal- sponsibility for defining security to gov- lenge and bring the cold war to an end. ernments. Their agenda ranges from , Meanwhile, Marcus Raskin, a senior traditional peace movement actions to fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies innovative acts of citizen diplomacy. The in Washington, D.C., and former mem- Nztural Resources Defense Council, by ber of President Kennedy's National Se- persuading Soviet authorities to let it es- curity Council, has launched an effort to tablish seismic monitoring stations near revive the McCloy-Zorin Principles. He the nuclear testing grounds at Semipala- has formulated, and submitted to Ameri- tinsk, helped compel the Reagan admin- can and Soviet analysts for comment, a istration to reopen talks with Moscow detailed and careful draft treaty that about nuclear test ban verification. The spells out a 15-year process for disband- Campaign for Peace and Democracy/ ing the world's armed forces, eliminat- East and West and the European Nu- ing all stockpiles of weapons and their clear Disarmament Campaign seek to delivery vehicles, and converting arms counter the arms race by building a industries to civilian use.4B grassroots alliance of peace and human One reason governments resist disar- rights groups straddling the military mament is that they distrust each other's blocs in Europe. intentions. An internationalsatellite monitoring agencyproposed in 1962 and 1978, and currently revived as an An international satellite monitor- ideacould help build greater trust. Un- ing agency could help build greater dertaking modest tasks at first, it might eventually provide impartial information trust. to verify arms treaties, confirm or deny alleged border violations, deter surprise attacks, monitor cease-fires, discourage While Third World conflictsarise clandestine missile tests, and assist U.N. from a multitude of causes, they often peacekeeping missions. According to a are exacerbated by the involvement of U.N. General Assembly study, start-up outside powers. In the absence of for- and operating costs would be well under eign intervention, such disputes may be 1 percent of world military expenditures easier to resolve. For the superpowers, annually.49 the lessons of Vietnam and Afghanistan The General Assembly is currently suggest that military intervention has considering the establishment of a moni- reached a point of diminishing returns. toring center of limited scope that, for Either the United States or the Soviet the time being, would not involve satel- Union could offer to refrain from send-

1 6 2 (148) State of the World 1989 ing armed forces or weapons into any namese occupation of Kampuchea, and nonaligned country, in return for similar the struggle between the Sahrawi people self - restraint from the other super- and Morocco over control of the West- power. Such a nonintervention policy ern Sahara. Sheer exhaustion and war was in effect endorsed by a panel of for- weariness have driven these combatants mer and current American and Soviet to see the United Nations as a peace- officials in a report on "The Require- maker of last resort. Cease-fire negotia- ments for Stable Coexistence in United tions sponsored by the United Nations States-Soviet Relations." In a similar offer a face-saving way out of a stale- vein, Gorbachev proposed removing So- mated conflict. And in southern Africa, viet naval forces from Cam Ranh Bay in the world body may soon rtly a crucial Vietnam, if the United States in return role in overseeing Namibia's transition agreed to closedown its military bases in to independence. the Philippines.51 If the world body's current peacekeep- The best hope for impartially resolving efforts continue to be successful, it ing Third World conflicts rests with the can capitalize on its new prestige, repu- United Nations. The history of U.N. tation, and trust to cope with an even peacekeeping efforts shows that the or- more daunting challenge: to move from ganization has been an effective concilia- organizingcease-firesandcreating tor of conflicts that did not directly in- buffer zones to preventing the outbreak volve any of the major powers. Even of hostilities in the first place. The an- though those who had high hopes in- nouncement that U.N. Peacekeeping vested in the United Nations have Forces received the 1988 Nobel Peace largely been disappointed during the Prize may be just the boost the organiza- first four decades of its existence, the tion needed to take on this new role. organization's reputation has lately im- In the future, armed conflict may well proved.s2 be prevented by having either unarmed The changing Soviet attitude toward observers or peacekeeping forces al- the United Nations is a particularly en- ready in place. Indeed, as part of a pro- couraging development. as reflected in posal for a comprehensive security sys- Soviet payment of past membership tem, the Soviet Union recently urged the dues, Moscow's proposals for a U.N. United Nations to set up "observation flotilla in the Persian Gulf, and its ac- posts in explosive areas of the world." ceptance of U.N.-mediated talks that ini- Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir F. Pe- tiated the withdrawal of Soviet troops trovsky suggested that any country seek. from Afghanistan. if the incoming ad- ing to protect itself from outside inter- ministration in Washington can reverse ference should be able to call on the the hostile U.S. stance toward this world United Nations to send observer teams body, both superpowers could jointly to patrol borders.53 make the United Nations what its found- In 1983, Nicaragua proposed that an ers envisioned: an organization at the eight-nation Latin American contingent center of a collective security system. patrol its border with Honduras to deter Meanwhile, the United Nations is re- Contra mercenary incursions. In 1988, ceiving a boost from an unexpected cor- HonduranForeignMinisterLopez ner. This decade has seen numerous Contreras called for a similar force. If a conflicts around the globe that seem to U.R. team or another international force have no victors but only vanquished had been available, it might have pre- the Iran-Iraq war, Soviet forces pitched vented much of the bloodshed in the re- against the Afghanmujahedeen,the Viet- gion. It would also have been much Enhancing Global Security (1.19) cheaper. A Pentagon estimate con- conversion process must be set in mo- cluded that a force of 1,300 observers tion in parallel to a disarmament pro- could monitor the borders separating cess. Conversion seeks to protect de- Nicaragua from Honduras, El Salvador, fense-dependent workers and communi- and Costa Rica for less than $40 million ties from the social and economic dislo- a year. By contrast, the United States cation that otherwise would arise during spends some $3 billion to project mili- disarmament. Worldwide, perhaps as tary force into the region, and the Cen- many as 50 million peopleeither as tral American countries together spend soldiers or as workers in military indus- another $1 billion on their armies.54 tryare on the military payro11.57 The world may therefore want to consider creating a more permanent peacekeeping force. To solidify the impartial- A planned conversionprocess ity of such a forceand therefore its must be set in motion in parallel to acceptabilityit should ideally consist of a disarmament process. individually recruited persons, trained in the unique skills of peacekeeping, whose loyalty to the United Nations is beyond question.55 Conversion is a critical component in Annual outlays for seven U.N. peace- reordering the priorities of a nation's se- keeping operations come to about $380 curity policy. First of all, it helps identify million currently. A stepped-up role for existinginnovativeandproductive the UnitedNations wouldrequire capabilitiesthe capital, raw materials. greater expenditures. The organization machinery, and hum -n skills and exper- may soon be spending $2 billion a year tise now tied up in military-related if it assumes an active role in Kampu- production. Second,itprovides the chea, the Western Sahara, and southern framework and mechanism for rechanneling these capabilities into civilian use. Africa. That would still be less than what Legislationproposed by Represent- the world spends on the arms race on a ative Ted Weiss, for example, would single day.56 mandate the formation of local alternative-use committees in every military plant, base, or laboratory, and entrust them with the responsibility for developing a blueprint for civilian product BEATING SWORDS INTO development and marketing; the bill PLOWSHARES furtherprovidesforoccupational retraining of managers, engineers, and As far back as in the Bible, people have workers to help them adapt to the re- been urged to cast down their arms, to quirements of the civilian market.58 be done with war and to labor instead Third, as a deliberate planning pro- with plows and pruning hooks. The ad- cess, conversion enables societies to an- vice is even more appropriate today, ticipate the availability of capital and when threats to natural life-support sys- other resources for alternative civilian tems are the whole world's enemy. uses. Their reclamation from the mili- To rechannel resources from the military sector is badly needed to assist in tary to the civilian economy and to pro- repairing deterioratingpublicinfra- vide sufficient resources for reversing structure, revitalizing the economy, and environmental degradation, a planned improving living standards. But conver- (150) State of the World 1989 Table 8-6. Trade-Offs Between Military and Social or Environmental Priorities

Military Priority Cost Social/Environmental Priority Trident II submarine and F-18 jet 5100.000,000.000 Estimated cost of cleaning up the fighter programs 10.000 worst hazardous waste dumps in the United States

Stealth bomber program $68,000,000.000Two thirds of estimated costs to meet U.S. clean water goals by the year 2000

Requested SDI funding fiscal $58.000.00.000 Disposal of highly radioactive years 1988-92 waste in the United States

2 weeks of world military $50,000.000.000 Annual cost of the proposed expenditure U.N. Water and Sanitation Decade

German outlays for military $10.750,000.000 Estimated costs to dean up West procurement and R&D. fiscal German sector of the North year 1985 Sea

3 days of global military spending $6,500.000,000 To fund Tropical Forest Action Plan over 5 years

Development cost for Midgetman $6.000.000.000 Annual cost to cut sulfur dioxide ICBM emissions by 8-12 million tons/year in the United States to combat acid rain

2 days of global military spending $4.800.000,000 Annual cost of proposed U.N. Action Plan to halt Third World desertification, over 20 years sion also frees up the money and brains into a center for cancer and related bio- required for reversing environmental medical research. Or a chemical weap- degradation. Table 8-6 provides a sam- ons factory could become a laboratory ple of the trade-offs between military working on toxic waste treatment.59 and sfNcial and environmental priorities. Conversion is more than just a theory. In 1978, for example, the University of At the close of World War II, 30 percent California Nuclear Weapons Labs Con- of U.S. GNP was transferred from the version Project studied the possibilities war industry into civilian uses. Today, of switching the Lawrence Livermore China stands as an example. The post- Laboratory to work on alternative pro- Mao leadership assigned the military ducticn in the energy field. Another such sector the lowest priority of the "four proposal envisioned transforming the modernizations" (the others being agri- Fort Detrick biological warfare facility culture, industry, and science and tech-

1.3 Enhancing Global Security (151)

Military Priority Cost Social/Environmental Priority 6 months of U.S. outlays for S4.000.000.000U.S. government spending on nuclear warheads. fiscal year energy efficiency. fiscal years 1986 i980 -87

SDI research. fiscal year 1987 S:1.700.000.000 Enough funds to build a solar power system serving a city of 200.000

10 days of European Economic S2.000.000.000Annual cost to clean up Community military spending hazardous waste sites in 10 European Economic Community countries by the year 2000

1 Trident submarine $1.400.000.000Clobal 5-year child immunization program against 6 deadly diseases, preventing I million deaths a year

3 B-1B bombers $680,000.000U.S. government spending on renewable energy. fiscal years 1983-85

2 months of Ethiopian military S50.000.000Annual cost of proposed U.A. spending Anti-Desertification Plan for Ethiopia

1 nucicar weapon test S12.000.000Installation of 80.000 hand pumps to give Third World villages access to safe watet

1-hour operating cost. B-15 521.000Community-based maternal bomber health cart: in 10 African villages to reduce maternal deaths by half in one decade souttet:: WorldtvatcaI Institute.tute. based on various sources. nology). In 1985, the country decided to greater resources to environmental pro- slice its 4-million-strong armed forces by tection. But in the face of transnational one quarter and to utilize part of the environmental problems, national ef- military-industrial capacity to manufac- forts are likely to prove fruitless without ture civilian goods. Civilian production the cooperation ofneighbors. Indeed, as now accounts for 20 percent of the out- awareness of the transnational character put of China's 30,000 military factories; ofenvironmentaldegradationhas that share is projected to reach 50 per- grown and as remedies became more ur- cent by the year 2000.60 gent, an increasing number of interna- It is important fer nations to devote tional conventions have been concluded. (152) Slate of the World 1989 with varying degrees ofnational commit- borders, these nations committed them- ment and success. (See Chapter 1.) selves to reduce their 1980 levels of sul- The linked Nations Environment fur dioxide emissions, a chief culprit in Programme (MEP) has served a useful the formation of acid rain, by at least 30 function in laying the groundwork for percent by 1993. A total of 19 countries additional treaties. Its most celebrated {including the Soviet Union but not the achievement to date is the Montreal Pro- United States) have joined the club so tocol that calls for a 50-percent cut in far. A similar pledge to cut nitrogen ox- CFC production by 1999. But UNEP's ides by 30 percent by 1998 was made by mandate remains limited, and there are 12 European nations in 1988.62 nofirmlyestablishedinternational Environmentalalliancesthatrun mechanisms to address ecological prob- across adversaria. military alliances can lems. For example, several of UNEP's fulfill a valuable role by strengthening attempts to draft rules on international the common interestsof opposing responsibility for transboundary envi- camps. Europe has been divided into I ronmental damage have failed.61 East and West for four decades now, but Ironically, transnational coordination joint policies to cope with environmental of environmental policies can occasion- threats may help in breaking down ideo- ally even be a two-edged sword. The logical barriers. Tanks and planesmight consensus-building process within the fend off a military attack, but no technol- European Economic Community, for ex- ogy exists to repel the air- and water- ample, has at times inhibited individual borne pollutants that cross borders with member countries from taking strirter impunity. East-West environmental co- national action. This was the case with operation first became manifest in the automotive emissions. (See Chapter 6.) 1979ConventiononLong-Range As in the field of disarmament, the in- Transboundary AirPollution, which ertia of formal international conferences gave rise to the "30 percent club." Both may be overcome by the independent sides are now showing considerably actions of one or more like-minded greater interest in enhanced coopera- countries. They could commit them- tion.63 selves to reduce their fossil hie! con- One specific alliance might evolve sumption, cut their CFC production, or among the countries that share the Elbe. stop ocean dumping, and then invite This riverseverely polluted with cad- other nations to adopt similar policies. mium, mercury, lead, phosphates, and Such environmental alliancesformed nitratesflows through heavily industri- to act against a common threatcould alized parts of Czechoslovakia and East tie together nations that share ecosys- Germany beforestreaming through tems, countries that are geographically Hamburg, West Germany, and emptying distant but bear primary responsibility into the North Sea. Because West Ger- for global environmental threats, or po- many has an obvious interest in seeing litical, ideological, or military rivals that the river cleaned up, it is considering may have little else in common than an funding a water treatment plant in East interest in avoiding environmental catas- Germany. By similar logic, the country trophes. earlier agreed to pay for some sulfur di- These alliances are already becoming oxide scrubbers on Czechoslovakian a reality. In 1984, nine European coun- power plants in an effort to reduce the tries and Canada formed a "30 percent air pollution wafting across the border.64 club." Aware that vast amounts of air- The newfound urgency to counteract borne pollutants drift across national global problems like the greenhouse ef-

167 ,

Enhancing Global Security 033) fect and ozone depletion may also bring diplomacy is playing an increasingly im- change in U.S.-Soviet relations. As early portant role in pushing governments to as1972, the superpowers signed an stem environmentaldegradation.In Agreement on Cooperation in the Field widely divergent ways, environmental of Environmental Protection. But activi- groups have sought to link up with over- ties carried out under the accord have seas counterparts or influence national been starved for funds. Now, without policies affecting the global environ- governmentalsponsorship,scientists ment. The Rainforest Action Network, from the Soviet Union and the United for instance, is pressuring development States are beginning to collaborate more banks not to fund projects that destroy closely on measures to cope with the the remaining rain forests. The Environ- greenhouse effect, in an effort dubbed mental Project on Central America is or- greenhouse glasnost .65 ganizing American support for the Cen- A unique environmental alliance is tral American "peace parks." shaping up in war-torn Central America. Conservation International and the Governments agreed in 1988 to estab- World Wildlife Fund have pioneered in- lish a series of "peace parks"designed novative financial arrangements known to preserve the region's fast-disappear- as debt-for-nature swaps (though their ing rain forests and to help promote sus- impact is too min uzrule to solve the debt tainable developmentstraddling the crisis). Survival Internationalis concerned with preserving the habitat on borders ofCosta Rica, El Salvador, Hon- whichendangeredpeoplesdepend. duras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Pan- Greenpeace has developed a truly globe- ama. Nicaraguan official Lorenzo Carde- spanning network of activists mobilized nal hopes these biosphere reserves will on a wide range of issues. Environmental become "a worldwide model of sustaina- links across the East-West divide on the ble tropical forest development."66 grassroots level are still in their infancy. In the final analysis, all countries must But Friends of the Earth, among others, become part of an earth-spanning envi- is busy budding contacts with a budding ronmental coalition. In June 1988, the East European environmental move- prime ministers of Norway and Canada ment. called for a global "law of the air" analo- Today's threats to environmental se- gous to the Law of the Seaa treaty to unity may supplant concerns about in- protect the earth's atmosphere from tractable issues of military security, even ozone depletion and the buildup of as the world takes halting steps toward greenhouse gases. A world atmosphere disarmament and economic conversion. fund, financed by a tax on fossil fuel con- Growing environmental awarenessis sumption in the industrial countries, spawning a new willingness to collabo- could provide the financial support for rate on a global basis. If nations can improving energy efficiency, switching work together to solve common ecologi- to more benign fuels, and taking other cal problems, if multilateralism works, remedial actions. (See Chapter 10.)67 then we stand a chance of overcoming As with war and peace issues, citizen the many other issues that divide us.

168 9 Mobilizingat the Grassroots Alan B. Darning

Villagers in the parched hinterlands of livelihoods, and lengthening workdays. Senegal may never have heard the word But they are not standing idle. In vil- desertification, yet they know better than lages, neighborhoods, and shantytowns any agronomist that their soil is ex- around the world, people are coming to- hausted and that hunger is on their gether to discuss and respond to the heels. Women on the banks of the tightening ecological and economic con- Ganges may not know what an infant ditions that confront them. Viewed in mortality rate is, but they know all too isolation, these initiatives are modest- well the helpless agony of holding a 10 women plant trees on a roadside, a child as it dies of diarrhea. Forest dwell- dozen youths dig a well, an old man ers in the heart of the Amazon may never teachesneighborhoodchildrento have been told about the mass extinction readbut from a global perspective of species now occurring around them, their scale and impact are monumental. Indeed, local organizations form a sort but they know far better than any re- of ragtag front line in the worldwide search biologist what it is to watch their struggle to end poverty and environ- primeval homeland go up in smoke mental destruction. before advancing waves of migrants and Although most individual groups are developers. little known outside their own locality, The men and women of Senegal, Ban- the overall movements they form can be gladesh, and Brazil understand global studied by piecing together insights deterioration inits rawest forms. To from scores of interviews, field visits, them, creeping degradation of ecosys- grassrootsnewsletters,officialdocu- tems has meant declining health, failing ments, press reports, and academic pa- An expanded version of this chapter appeared as pers. The resulting picture reveals an Worldwatch Paper 88.Alobihzingat sheGras000ts: expanding latticework of human orga- Lora' Action on Poverty and the Environment. nizations that, while varying from place i6 ? Mobilizing at the Grassroots (155) to place in many of the particulars, share ling community groups can scarcely be basic charac teristics. I underestimated, yet neither can its im- The particulars include cooperatives, portance. To succeed, sustainable devel- mothers' clubs, peasant unions, reli- opment will have to come from both the gious groups, savings and credit associa- bottom and the top. tions, neighborhood federations, collective work arrangements, tribal networks, and innumerable others. The universals include the capacities to tap local knowledge and resources, to respond to prob- AN UNNOTICED TIDE lems rapidly and creatively, and to maintain the institutional flexibility necessary In an anthropological sense, social orga- in changing circumstances. In addition, nization is always present. Kinship, peer although few groups use the words sus- relations, division of labor, social hierar- tainable development, their agendas in chies, and religious structures form the many cases embody its ideal. They want scaffoi ding of human community in tra- economic prosperity without sacrificing ditional societies. Yet traditional mgani- their health or the prospects for their zations.firstdisturbed by European children. colonialism, have been stretched and At the grassroots, and particularly often dismantled by the great cultural among the close to 4 billion humans in upheavals of the twentieth century: pop- developing lands, it appears that the ulation growth, urbanization, the advent world's people are better organized in of modem technology, and the spread of 1989 than they have been since Euro- western commercialism.° pean colonialism disrupted traditional In the resulting organizational vac- societies centuries ago. Alone, however, uum, a new generation of community this new class of organizations is far from and grassroots groups has been steadily, powerful enough to single-handedly set albeit unevenly, developing, particularly the world on a sustainable course. The over the past two decades. This emer- tasks requiredfrom putting the brakes gen°e is driven by a shifting constella- on population growth to reforesting the tion of forces, including stagnant or planet's denuded watershedswill ne- deteriorating economic and ecological cessitate an unprecedented outpouring conditions for the poor, the failure of of human energy. (See Chapter 10.) many governments to respond ade- Community groups, whose membership quately, and the spread in some regions now numbers perhaps into the hundreds of new social ideologies and new inter- of millions, can show the world how to pretations of religious doctrines. In con- tap that energy. But national govern- trast to traditional organizations and ments and international agencies, which mass political movements, this rising have all too often excluded or sought to tide of community groups is generally control popular organizations, must pragmatic, self-consciously focused on learn to work with them. Development development. nonaligned in party poli- institutions in particular will need funda- tics, and concerned primarily with self- mental reorientation if they are to fulfill help. their potential as supporters of and com- At the same time, in much of the world plements to local efforts.2 a second layer of institutions has jelled The difficulty of forging an alliance atop the first. This diverse class of inter- between powerful, often rigid institu- mediary organizations serves the groups tions and the world's millions of fledg- at the base by facilitating the flow of in- in! (156) State of the World 1989 formation, materials. and funds between dhism. Sarvodaya mobilizesmassive the grassroots and broader institutions work teams to do everything from build- such as church. state. and development ing road networks to draining malarial donors. The groups go by many names: ponds, and their achievements have gar- in Europe they are called nongovern- nered international praise.? mental organizations (NGOs), in the After Asia. Latin American communi- United States private voluntary organi- ties are perhaps the most active. There, zations (PVOs). and in Asia voluntary the bulk of the continent's experience agencies or "Volags." Here they will be dates to the 1968 conference of Catholic called "independent development orga- Bishops in Medellin, Colombia, where nizations"orsimply"independent the church fundamentally reoriented its groups."4 social mission toward improving the lot Numbers only crudely capture the vi- of the poor. Since that time, millions of tality of the world's grassroots move- priests. nuns, and laypeople have fanned ments since data are sketchy and groups out into the back streets and hinterlands fluid, yet the explosive growth is unmis- from Tierra del Fuego to the Rio takable. Although at mid-century com- Grande. dedicating themselves to creat- munity development projects existed ing a people's church embodied in mainly where traditional self-help cus- neighborhoodworshipandaction toms remained intact, today dynamic groups called Christian Base Communi- local organizations are found through- ties. Brazil alone has 100,000 base com- out the world. (See Table 9-1.)s munities, with at least 3 million mem- Asia has by many accounts the most bers. and an equal number are spread active community movement. India's across the rest of the continent. In Cen- self-help movement has a prized place in tral America. they play an important role society, tracing its roots LO Mahatma in movements for peace and human Gandhi's pioneering village develop- rights.6 ment work 60 years ago. Gandhi aimed In Latin America. past political move- to build a just and humane society from ments also lay the groundwork for cur- the bottom up, starting with self-reliant rent community self-help efforts. In Co- villazes based on renewable resources. lombia, the rise and subsequent violent After independence in 1948, Gandhi's repression of the National Association of disciple Vinoba Bhave sparked the in- Small Farmers in the seventies gave fluential Village Awakening movement peasants experiences with organizing and, when that peaked in 1964, a new that led to the abundance of community wave of community organizing com- efforts today, including everything from menced, spurred by a generation of cooperative storesLO environmental committed middle-class youths. Tens if "green councils." In Nicaragua, the na- not hundreds of thousands of local tionaluprisingthatoverthrewthe groups in India now wage the day-by-day Somoza dictatorship in 1979 created a struggle for development.6 fount of grassroots energy that flowed Across the subcontinent. community into thousands of local groups.° activism runs high. Self-help in Ban- Community self-helporganizations gladesh has risen sharply since indepen- are relative newcomers to Africa, though dence in 1971, and 3 million Sri Lankans traditional villageinstitutionsare participate in Sarvodaya Shramadana, a stronger than in other regions. Never- community development movement that theless. in pans of Africa where political combines Gandhian teachings with so- struggles have led to dramatic changes cial action tenets of Theravada Bud- in political structures. local initiatives

171 Mobilizing at the Grassroots (057) Table 9.1. Grassroots Organizations in Selected Developing Countries, Late Eighties

Country Description

India Strong Gandhian self-help tradition promotes social welfare, appropriate technology, and tree planting; local groups number in at least the tens of thousands; independent development organizations estimated at 12,000.

Indonesia 600 independent development groups work in environmental protection alone.

Bangladesh 1,200 independent development organizations formed since 1971, particularly active with large landless population.

Philippines 3,000-5,000 Christian Base Communities form focal points for local action.

Sri Lanka Rapidly growing Sarvodaya Shratnadana village awakening movement includes over 8,000 villages, one third of total in country; 3 million people involved in range of efforts, particularly work parties, education, preventive health care, and cooperative crafts projects.

Kenya 16,232 women's groups with 637,000 members registered in 1984, quadruple the 1980 number; 1988 estimates range up to 25,000; many start as savings clubs.

Zimbab,,e Informal small-farmer groups throughout country have estimated membership of 276,500 families (2.3 million people); active women's community gardens multiplying.

Burkina Faso Naam grassroots peasant movement has 2,500 groups participating in dry-season self-help; similar movements forming in Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and Togo.

Brazil Enormous growth in community action since democratization in early eighties: 100,000 Christian Base Communities with 3 million members; 1.300 neighborhood associations in SSo Paulo; landless peasant groups proliferating; 1,041 independent development organizations.

Mexico Massive urban grassroots movement active in squatter settlements of major cities; at least 250 independent development organizations.

Peru Vital women's self-help movement in Lima's impoverished shantytowns with 1.500 community kitchens; 300 independent development organizations. souace: Worldwatch Institute, based on various sources. 172 (158) Slate of the World 1989 have sprung up in abundance. In Kenya, eighties, as momentum switched from the harambee ("let'spull together") national to local campaigns on toxic movement began with independence in waste and groundwater protection. Esti- 1963 and, with encouragement from the mates of nationwide participation range national government, by the early eight- up to 25 million. In West Germany, ies was contributing nearly one third of meanwhile, the ascent of the Green all labor, materials, and finances in- Party, whose roots go back to the "citi- vested in rural development. With Zim- zen initiative" movement of the sixties babwe's transfer to black rule in 1980, a and seventies, fostered broad public en- similar explosion in community organiz- vironmental awareness and pushed na- ing began, as thousands of women's tional leaders toward institutionalizing community gardens and informal small concern for the environment.° farmer associations formed. Senegal and A final noteworthy characteristic of Burkina Faso are well organized at the community movements is the central grassroots level as a result of traditions role that women play. As the majority of of joint action.° participants in many regions, they form the backbones of the movements. In Africa the sheer enormity of women's With Zimbabwe's transfer to black burden unites them: women bear exclu- rule in 1980, thousands of women's sive responsibility for child care, cook- community gardensandsmall ing, cleaning, processing food, carrying farmer associations formed. water, and gathering fuel; they grow 80 percent of the food, raise half the livestock, and have 27 million babies a year. Worldwide, women's traditional nurtur- For lack of space, this chapter concen- ing role may give them increased con- trates on Third World self-help move- cern for the generations of their child -en ments, yet local action seems to be on and grandchildren, while their subordi- the rise everywhere. In the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and China, officially nate social status gives them more to sanctioned local organizations are nu- gain from organizing.° merous but largely controlled by state and party hierarchies, and as such cannot be equated with the nonaligned self- help movements of other countries. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union and East- THE GENESIS OF LOCAL ern Europe have witnessed over this ACTION decade the emergence, often at considerable risk to the founders, of indepen- Poverty is an economic condition, but its dent community groups battling nuclear effects ripple deep into the human psy- power reactors and industrial pollu- che,devastating self-confidence and tion." self-respect. One consequence, accord- In western industrial nations, grass- ing to sociologists, is that organizing roots action for sustainability is a formi- comes more naturally to the fortunate dable force, setting its sights on every- than to the dispossessed. Despite activist thing from local waste recycling to priests and Gandhian workers, the poor international trade and debt issues. The remain the least organized of the world's U.S. environmental movement took a people. The multiple causes of this iner- decidedly grassroots turn in the early tia are critical obstacles to progress

173 Alobiking al the Grassroots (059) against hunger, poverty, and environ- and failings well. Indian independent or- mental decline. ganizations find that the most reliable For those who live on the brink of star- organizers are middle-aged mothers.. vation, generations of misfortune and they have good rapport with villagers, injustice have bred an often overwhelm- especially other women, but are likely to ing fatalism, As Zimbabwean organizer stay put while younger people often mi- Sithembiso Nyoni has pointedout. grate to cities after completing organizer Third World people are not at the dawn training.17 of their history. Life experience counsels Another lesson from India is that so- them that change is impossible and that cial stratification often makes all-inclu- those who offer to help have ulterior mo- sive community organizations counter- tivesproselytization, political patron- productive. Lumping male farmers with age, or simple greed. Further, living landless women almost guarantees that hand-to-mouth. the poor have little mar- the men will reap the bulk of rewards. gin for risky experiments and new un- Many government community develop- dertakings. Change must go inch by ment programs have treated all villagers inch." as essentially equal in interests and sta- If fatalism and risk-aversion account tus, allowing the more powerful to co- for some of the world's grassroots iner- opt projects for their own benefit.18 tia, social structures account for the rest. The two basic paths out of fatalism The poor of the world are not, as First and divisiveness are, in essence, forms of World myth has it, an undifferentiated education. but education need not mean "peasant mass" or a "sea of need." So- schooling. The first path is typified by cial and economic roles are as intricately Brazilian educator Paulo Freire's learn- stratified in Bontbay slums as they are in ing process, now practiced by indepen- New York or Berlin. Research on a Ban- dent groups worldwide. It uses informal gladeshi village of 150 households, for teachers who guideilliterateadults example, revealed10 distinctsocial through discussions of basic concepts classes. Many communities are further fromeverydaylifesuchasfood, torn apart by personality conflicts, fac- school, and landlordto foster a critical tional frictions, and turbulent squab- awareness of the predicament of pov- bles .15 erty. Similar techniques include street Springing the trap of fatalism and divi- theater,revitalizationoftraditional sion usually requires a catalyzing influ- dance and music, and oral history. By ence from outside the community promoting a sense of identity and self- "some experience," in the words of worth, these methods of "popular edu- development theorist Albert Hirschman. cation" all aim to break what Freire "dispelling isolation and mutual dis- termed the "culture of silence" that trust."16 Sometimes broad-based politi- traps large classes in powerlessness and cal upheaval has this effect, as in Zim- vulnerability.19 babwe orNicaragua, butmore In 1975, the Catholic diocese of Ma- frequently an organizer is involved. chakos, Kenya, initiated a Freirian liter- Experience from India suggests that acy program that, by 1984, invoked with training and support from indepen- some 60,000 participants. Program co- dent groups, the most effective organiz- ordinator Francis Mulwa reports. "Liter- ers are natural leaders from the area it- acy-class discussions became the spring- self. These individuals, who often hold board to other development," gener- no official position, know community ating ventures in handicrafts. tree plant- members and their strengths, quirks, ing, primary health care, cooperative

1 74 (i6o) State of the World 1989 farming. soil conservation, savings and weigh heavily against the poor. In aver- credit, and water supply. Albert Hirsch- age conditions, failure to achieve goals is man calls this pervasive springboardef- a normal pan of the process. Working fect"social energy": once a group gets together, however, has its own rewards. started, projects proliferate and momen- Indeed, the intangible benefits of grass- tum builds.20 roots action are as important as the la- Because actions speak louder than trines dug and trees planted, for as., words, many organizers prefer the sec- Chilean dissident Ariel Dorfman so elo- ond path out of fatalism: they organize quently put it, "How do you measure the to produce something tangible early on. amount of dignity that people accumu- be it a school building, a well, or a paint late? How do you quantify the disap- job for the church. Again, momentum pearance of apathy?"23 builds once people see what joint action can achieve. A variation is the method of such appropriate technology groups as India's Centre of Science for Villages and the Philippine Palawan Center for MEETING HUMAN NEEDS Appropriate Rural Technology. Deven- dra Kumar of Science for Villages de- In September 1988, World Bank presi- scribes the philosophy well: "Technol- deal Barber Conable flew to Berlin to ogy can be a tool of rural change, report to the governors of the Bank and because by introducing one simple de- the International Monetary Fund. Pov- vice, such as a pulley with ball bearings erty. he announced, "prevents a billion for hauling water out of a well, rural peo- people from having even minimally ac- ple begin to see possibilities that they ceptable standards of living." The ranks did not see before." People rarely seek of the dispossessed, moreover, appear to relief from hardships they consider inev- be growing.24 itable.21 Thus, the world's self -help movements are arising amidst increasing des- peration; the poor take action as best Many organize to produce some- they can on many fronts and all too often thing tangible early on, be it a they lose. Although the cultural, eco- school building or a paint job for nomic, and political factors that determine the effectiveness of community ac- the church. tion are too complex to be condensed into a universal "recipe for success," experiences from around the world reveal In Sri Lanka, Sarvodaya Shramadana the strengths and weaknesses of grass- combines the two paths in massive work roots groups. parties and communal feasts. where vil- The most essential lesson is that com- lages come together to speak, listen, and munity groups organize to respond, on learn. The philosophy is all in the name. the one hand, to a felt need or threat Shramadana means "gift of labor." and and, on the other hand. toperceivedop- Sarvodaya means "village awakening." portunities. There is, in other words, By giving their labor, people awaken the both a "push" and a "pull" to commu- talents within their village and set it on nity action, and neither is sufficient in a course of self - development." itself. Depending on local needs and the Even inhe best of circumstances, awareness of opportunitiesto meet popular actionisdifficult; the odds those needs, communities focus on a va-

175 Mobilizing at the Grassroots (z61) riety of areas, most commonly securing them for themselves. In Rio de Janeiro, rights to their land, providing education, tenure is largely secure and half of Rio's improving health, generating income, favelas,where at least 2 mill:-In live, are and protecting their resource base." at some stage of organizatirs-.i, according In the mushrooming shantytowns of to lawyer-organizer Eliana Athaydc. One the southern hemisphere, neighborhood of the most successful is Santa Maria, movements have grown dramatically; where 11,500 live in precarious struc- San Paulo alone has 1,300 organizations. tures clinging to a steep slope above A typical sequence of development for Rio's city council offices. The local orga- such a squatter community begins when nization, which started with an informal innviduals or an organized group in- day care program, evolved into a vocal vadet a vacant areathe push is the ob- and effective neighborhood association. vious need for shelter and the pull is see- As of June 1988, the accumulated social ing emptyland. Once settled,the energy had brought water, paved stair- community's top priority is to protect it- ways (in lieu of roads), and health clinics self from expulsion, a difficult and dan- into ihefavela, along with drainage sys- gerous job. In Manila's Tondo slum, one tems against mud slides, which had of Asia's largest, residents formed mas- wiped out two dozen homes in February sive "human barricades" in the ' -ate six- 1988. The people of Santa Marta built ties to halt government bulldozers bent some of it themselves; the rest they on demolishing homes. The land tenure pressed the city to construct." struggle can also be protracted: the Perhaps the world's greatest success 40,000 inhabitants of Klong Toey in story in self-help community building is Bangkok, for example, prevailed only Lima's Villa El Salvador, where citizens after a three-decade campaign.26 have planted a half-million trees; built Natural disasters and similar crises can 26 schools, 150 day care centers, and throw open the floodgates to old griev- 300 community kitchens; and trained ances between popular groups and pow- hundreds of door-to-door health work- erful institutions. The Mexican govern- ers. Despite the extreme poverty of the ment seized on the opportunity of the town's inhabitants and a population that 1985 Mexico City earthquake to relocate has shot up to 300,000, illiteracy has thousands of squatters from the prime fallen to 3 percentone of the lowest real estate they occupied, but the city's rates in Latin Americaand infant mor- neighborhood organizations unleashed tality is 40 percent below the national what writer Octavio Paz called "a social average. The major contributors to suc- tide" to halt the relocations and demand cess have been avast network of reconstruction assistance. Later, with women's groups and the neighborhood the symbolic leadership of wrestling star association's democratic administrative Superbarrio, hero of society's under- structure, which extends down to repre- dogs, the unprecedented movement sentatives on each block. Together, they pressured government to extend hous- match a high degree of base-level orga- ing programs.27 nization with a responsive system of gov- As often as not the poor are evicted, ernance to yield maximum participation but where they are able to establish land in designing and implementing commu- tenure, they generally move on to other nity efforts.29 priorities. They pressure authorities to In Recife, the metropolis of Brazil's supply services including water, waste poor northeast region, 2.5 million peo- disposal, and schools, or they provide ple live in shantytowns where barely half

176 (162) Stale of the ll'orld 1989 the population can read. The state gov- irrigation channels lined with plastic ernment, under leadership first from the sheets and reasoned that a reservoir right and then from the left, has been could be similarly sealed. After lengthy unwilling or unable to respond to the discussion and debate, the community crisis in education, leaving the public agreed to the plan, and in 1986, all but school system with a 70-percent dropout a few stayed home during the dry season rate in the elementary grades alone. to get the job done. Moving thousands Sixty of Recife's favelas have completed of tons of earth by hand, they finished the mammoth organizational task of the pool before the rains and were soon openii ig their own elementary schools, theenvyof theirneighbors, who with teachers and lesson plans drawn promptly made plans to build their from local life. By 1988, the popular ed- own.s2 ucation movement was spreading like Food scarcity may be similarly tackled wildfire across Brazil. Rio de Janeiro, by community groups. In Peru, interna- Belem. and Salvador each had over a tional debt and the economic crisis it dozen community schools, and thefave- drives can be measured in the height of las of Ski Luis had already opened 40.90 the children: malnutrition now stunts the growth of one in four. The mothers of the shantytowns that encircle Lima In Peru, international debt and the have found an innovative way to combat economic crisis it drives can be hunger. In more than 1,500 community measured in the height of the chil- kitchens, they buy in bulk to cut costs dren. and rotate cooking duties to save time. The kitchens improve nutrition for all while building solidarity among women, At least 1.5 billion people worldwide long subdued in the machismo of Latin still lack clean water, although hundreds culture.ss of communities are bucking the odds of As these examples show, community government complacence and interna- groups are good at attacking sources of tional neglect to confront this need. In disease with an identifiable cause, such Dhandhuka, on the barren coastal plane as contaminated water or malnutrition. of India's Gujarat state, a generation of On their own, however, they are un- excessive fuelwood gathering and over- aware of, and therefore cannot promote, grazing led to desertification, which in other low-cost preventive techniques turn triggeredsocial and economic that public health experts believe could disintegration. Conflicts erupted over save millions of lives in the Third World water that seeped into brackish wells, each year, such as oral rehydration for and in the worst years, four fifths of the diarrhea, extended breast-feeding, and population had to migrate to survive.3 1 mother and child immunization. The As in much of the world, fetching push of illness is there, but there is no water in Dhandhuka is women's work, pull of perceived opportunities. Most and it was the women who decided, campaigns that promote these measures, upon talking with community organizers therefore, are initi?ied by independent in 1981, to construct a permanent reser- health groups or governments.34 voir to trap the seasonal rains, In this Nevertheless, such large-scale pro- case, an idea from migrant laborers programs usually make use of community vided the pull that complemented the health workers, who need the support of push of water scarcity. They had seen local groups to be effective. Millions of

177 Mobilizing at the Grassroots (163) community health workers have been fieldtotrytheirvoices.Gradually trained since 1980; China alone had 1 demystifying age-old taboos against dis- million "barefoot doctors" and 4 million cussing sexuality and mistreatment at health aides in 1981. In Bangladesh, the hands of men, women gain perspec- where 250,000 children die each year tive on the hardships of their lives. The from diarrhea, the nongovernmental growing women's movements of Kenya Bangladesh Rural Advancement Com- and Nigeriawhere birth rates have re- mittee has gone door-to-doer to teach 9 mained high since the sixtiesmay pres- million mothers the use of diarrhea rehy- age falling fertility in the nineties. Since dration fluids made from sugar, water, the eighties began, rural Brazil has also and salt.35 seenexplosive growthin women's Most grassroots groups around the groups, many of them anxious to better world also neglect family planning, inform themselves of their legal, eco- again because they lack knowledge of the nomic, and reproductive rights.98 opportunities.Spreadingtheword In the area of economic development, about the benefits of contraception, grassroots effortsfail perhaps more therefore, generally falls to a class of commonly than those in the social devel- specialized government bodies and in- opment areas of health and education. dependent family planning agencies. The basic unit of community economic Where family planning has effectively development is often the cooperative, an turned the tide on excessive population association of worker-owners who form growth, however, it has done so through a business together and manageit collaboration between local and central jointly. Unfortunately, the majority of institutions. Thousands of mothers' worker cooperatives survive only a kw clubs in Indonesia and South Korea are years; their members are generally inex- the foot soldiers of those countries' periencedinmanaging capitaland highly effective family planning cam- equipment, and they often face volatile paigns. In Thailand, the Population and markets,skyrocketinginflation,and Community Development Association policies unsupportive of small produc- has trained representatives in 16,000 of ers.39 the country'sestimated 48,000vil- Success is more common in groups lages.38 that join forces to accomplish well-de- Community groups' indirect contribu- fined, mutually beneficial tasks, without tion to family planning, moreover, is collectivizing production. A striking ex- substantial. Data from around the world ample of this comes from the extreme show that as female education, health, north of Pakistan, where 800,000 peas- employment, and le ;al rights improve, ants five in one of the earth's most rug- birth rates decline. Large families are ged terrains. In 1982, the nongovern- frequently a sign of the subordination of mentalAgaKhanRuralSupport women. Thus,although community Program began resuscitating the tradi- groups have had a small role in distribut- tion of local self-help through a partner- ing contraceptives and family planning ship arrangement.48 information, they play what is in many At thousands of mass meetings, Aga ways a more fundamental role: liberat- Khan organizers offered support and as- ing women.3' sistance if the village would form an or- Through the weekly meetings of ganization, begin a sating scheme, and mothers' clubs, church groups, health select priority projects. By the end of committees, and cooperatives, women 1987, 764 of the 1,280 villages had bat- emerge from the isolation of home and tled their way through day-long meet-

179 (164) Stale of the World 1989 ings to qualify. Villagers have cleared veloping a profound understanding of new farmland, bored irrigation lines existing conditions in a particular sector throughmountains, and suspended of the economy. Although grassroots- pipes across gaping chasms. They have oriented, they were centralized enough saved 34 million Rupees ($1.9 million), to bring their force to bear on specific enough to start a regional village bank. legal and institutional obstacles that hin- and have sharpened their skills in every- der progress for the poor:" thing from poultry production to ac- Many of them work primarily with counting. Meanwhile, dozens of women. The 22.000-strong Self-Em- women's groups have sprung up parallel ployed Women's Association (SEWA) to the male-dominated village organiza- based in Ahntadabad. India, was formed tions. Community organizing for eco- in 1971 as a trade union to battle for nomic progress works in Pakistan, so continued access to sidewalk space for long as no attempt is made to collectivize street vendors and to stop police harass- production.41 ment. After each success. they have con- Simi lat. wisdom has arisen around the sciously worked to widen their impact, world. In Taiwan and South Korea, now extending to trash collectors, ciga- small farmers' associations that facilitate rette rollers. and farm laborers. SEWA the flow of information and improved provides a heartening contrast to most seed have been the foundation of agricultural productivity for over a genera- grassroots economic projects for tion. In Zimbabwe, corn production on women, which establish crafts. sewing, black farmers' land increased from 5 and weavingcooperatives,activities percent of the national harvest in 1980 where markets are usually flooded and to 45 percent in 1985, thanks in parr to profit margins slim.14 the services provided by small farmers' groups, which grew dramatically during that period. Case studies from Sri Lanka, Community organizing for eco- India, and the Philippines demonstrate nomic progress works, so long as the critical role of peasant associations in no attempt is made to collectivize managing irrigation systems.42 production, Since most of the Third World's urban poor are involved in what development specialists call the "informal sector" buying, trading, and selling the litter of Many of the most effective grass: ,ots goods that flow through the world's cit- economic programsrevolve around iesthat is where most urban grassroots credit. The Grameen Bank of Ban- economic development efforts are con- gladesh,for example, has attracted centrated. Judith Tendler performed an worldwide attention for its distribution in-depth review of indepene.ent organi- of over 400,000 tiny loans, averaging zations' economic development initia- $60 apiece. The funds go largely to tives, and found that those groups best women for investment in micro-enter- able to provide large numbers of people prises that involve the purchase of a with substantial economic gains were goat, for example, or a rice-huller, or not the common "integrated" small pro- -ools for wood cutting. On first entering jects that include credit, management a village, Grameen's "bicycle bankers" training, equipment. and advice. Rather, simply tell landless peasants about the the successful groups tended to be bank's credit offer. Those interested highly specialized ones that began by de- must find four others and form a "soli-

-179 Mobilizing at the Grassroots (165) darity group" to apply. The neediest two PROTECTING THE EARTH are given loans first, and if they make their weekly payments on time, the oth- In November 1987, 2,000 low-caste la- ers get theirs: peer pressure takes the borers and farmers from Karnataka. place of loan collatera1.45 India, performed one of the most pecu- Grameen is not in the busines: of liar acts of civil disobedience in that na- community organizing, but it has had tion'slong Gandhianhistory:they that effect nonetheless: dozens of loan uprooted 100 trees planted as part of a groups have begun community schools, massive govertunent reforestation cam- gardens, and sanitary latrines. With over paign. That villagers should destroy IN new branches added each year, Gra- trees in such a fuelwood-starved land meen's track record is truly extraordi- appears little less than self-destructive; nary and has inspired a bevy of imitators in fact, it was perfectly reasonable. The on other continents. As Grameen presi- trees, eucalyptus to be used in produc- dent Muhammad I'unus points out, tion of rayon, were planted by a private however, short-term credit is no sttbsti- company on what had been common tute for necessary reforms in national land where the poor gathered wood. tax, investment, and tenure policies. It The poor were defending what was would be unfortunate if effective credit theirs.° programs such as Grameen's became As officials itt northern and southern viewed as a panaceathe latest fad to capitals alike grow increasingly aware sweep development institutions.° that a sound resource base is crucial for In particular, for those who are ex- real social and economic progress. a cluded from access to productive re- stream of self-described "sustainable development" projects has t zgun to flow sources, self-help of necessity takes on from the pens of development planners. amore confrontationalstyle.The Notwithstanding their good intentions, Bhoomi Sena land movetnent of adivasis this round of ventures could fail as badly (tribal people) in Maharashtra, India, as earlier ones if they disregard the les- for instance, has struggled for 15 years son of Karnataka. The fitndatnertial to regain the tribal land base that was questions of sustainable development appropriated by moneylenders and tim- arc, by whom and for whom? Sustainable ber barons early this century. In the developtnent imposed from on high is Philippines and El Salvador, maldistri- rarely sustainable; it may not even be bution of farmland fuels grassroots ac- development. tion in its most violent form civil war. Environmental quality is not a luxury. And in Brazil, gross inequality in tenure Those who live beyond the borders of hamstrings agriculturalproduction. the world's industrial economy subsist Brazil's 10 million landless and mar- on nature's surpluson organic soil fer- ginal peasants began mass occupations tility for food, on stable hydrological cy- of unused private estates in the early cles for water, and on forests for fuel. eighties and have,inturn,suffered Environntental degradation, conse- fierce reprisals from landowners. Am- quently, has a direct, tangible meaning: nesty International rei.orts th;:t 1,000 hunger, thirst, and fuel scarcity. No line Brazilianpeasants have been killed can be drawn between economic devel- since 1980. mostly by hired guns:" All opment and environmental protection. too often, grassroots initiatives run into Many communities have traditional the brick wall of oppressive political resource management systems that ef- and economic power. fectively husband natural systems, but iso (1661 Slale of the World 1989 when authority over ranges, forests. or the forests. Since the sixties. a series of fisheries is vested in distant institutions, powerful economic and political forces the tragedy of the commons all too often have thrown waves of landless peasants sets in. Nepal nationalized its forests in and wealthy land speculators into the 1957, ostensibly "to protect. manage. jungles, where they have driven the rub- and improve" them. The result, how- ber tappers outsometimes atgun ever, was disastrous, as villagers' time- point,51 honored management systems broke In the remote Brazilian state of Acre down and the welter of unchecked indi- on the Bolivian border, by contrast, 30,- vidual interests overwhelmed govern- 000 nibber tappers took a stand in the ment forest institutions. Twenty years late seventies, using improvised nonvio- later, the Nepalese government reversed lent methods. Where clear-cutting had itself, slowly handing over woodlands to begun, men, women, and children intervillage councils. The reform has not peacefully occupied the forest, putting decentralized control far enough. yet their bodies in the path of destruction. local mechanisms of restraint seem to be More recently they have taken their pro- recuperating, with dramatic forest resto- tests into the courthouse, the legislative ration in several cases.49 chamber, and the governor's mansion. Traditionalresourcemanagement They have helped reshape World Bank mechanisms can also be overrun by and Inter-American Development Bank forces internal to the community. such lending policy by showing that, over the as population growth, or external to it. long run, natural rubber production is such as commercial interests. Communi- more profitable per hectare than cattle ties are most apt to protect their envi- ranching or fanning,52 ronment against the latter, which pro- Bolstered by an unprecedented alli- vide a visible adversary against which to ance with indigenous tribes and the scat- mobilize. For example, traditional fish- tered beginnings of a nationwide rubber ers of northeastern Brazil, the Philip- tappers movement. Acre's union has pines, and the Indian states of Goa and pushed hard for an end to the destruc- Kerala have built vocal movements for tion of their land baseand to violence safeguarding oceanfisheriesagainst against their members, (In _June 1988, a commercial trollers and industrial pol- landlord's hired assassins killed Ivair luter0° Higino de Almeida. a local peasant run- In tne world's disappearing tropical ning for county council with rubber tap- forests. community action is also ac- per support.) With help from interna- celerating. Every tropical forest, from tional environmental groups, the union the Congo to Kalimantan, has human has called on the Brazilian government residents who live from its natural sur- to set off large "extractive reserves" plus. The traditional inhabitants of the where rubber tappers can carry on their world's largest rain forest, in the Ama- way of life in perpetuity. It has also given zon Basin, include cozens of tribes of the tappers the strength to open a dozen Indians and perhaps a half-million rub- community schools, a health program. ber tappers, a guild of workers who trace and a marketing cooperative.53 their roots and the'.r residence in the for- Across the Pacific, Borneo's dense ests to the cyclica'. rubber booms of the woodlands have become a foundation of late nineteenth and early twentieth cen- Malays;a'sforeign-exchangestrategy, turies. They earn their keep by tapping providing the country with most of the the rubber trees spread liberally through $1.6 billion worth of tropical hardwoods

181 Mobilizing at the Grassroots (167) it exported in 1986. The forest is home fend their resource base against the in- to the Dayak tribes, however, who want cursion of others, but they may also or- it cut only on a sustainable basis and ganize to reverse deterioration driven by havebattledstate-supportedtimber forces internal to the community. As companies by constructing roadblocks Kenya's forests shrink,for instance, and appealing to European consumers thousands of women's groups, youth to boycott Malaysian hardwoods. To clubs, and harambee societies have date. unfortunately, they have had less mounted local tree planting drives. The success than the rubber tappers, due to National Council of Women of Kenya greater government intransigence, The inaugurated its Greenbelt Movement in official attitude is summed up by state 1977, calling on omen's groups across minister of the environment Datuk the country to turn open spaces, school James Wong, himself a timber tycoon: grounds, and road sides into forests. "There is too much sympathy for the Over a million trees in 1,000 greenbelts Dayaks. Their swidden lifestyle must be are now straining skyward, 20,000 mini- stamped out."54 greenbelts have taken root, and upwards The world's most famous community of 670 community tree nurseries are in movement for forest protection. Chipko, place. Meanwhile, Kenya's largest was born in the Garhal hills of Uttar women's development network, Maen- Pradesh, India. One movement story has deleo Va Wanawake, with its10,000 now virtually ascended into mythology. member groups. initiated a campaign in In March 1973, as a timber company 1985toconstruct ood-saving im- prepared to fell trees above impover- proved cookstoves.57 ished Gopeshwar village,local men, women. and children rushed to the woods and hugged the trees. daring the Chipko has gone beyond resource loggers to let the axes fall on their protection to restoration and "eco- backs.55 Less well known is that Chipko is development." now far more than a rearguard action. The movement has deepened its ecological understanding and, in the words Kenya takes soil conservation as seri- of movement-follower Vandana Shiva, ously as tree planting. and again women "widened from embracing trees to em- are the mainstay of the crusade. Writer bracing mountains and waters."In Paul Harrison relates a tale representa- 1987. for example, activists erected a tive of the achievements of Kenyan seven-month blockade at a limestone women's groups. Kimakimu hill, winch quarry that was destroying the Doon towers over the town of Machakos, was Valley ecosystem. Expanding geograph- so badly eroded from forest clearing and ically to allpoints of the compass. plowing that gaping chasms had opened Chipko has gone beyond resource pro- on itsface."In1981, the Kaluodi tection to ecological managerr cent, res- women's group began an ambitious se- toration, and what members call "eco- ries of conservation works on the hill- development," The women who first side. By 1985 all but a handful of farms guarded trees from loggers now plant were terraced, and the whole hillside was trees, build soil retainer walls, and pre- notched with zigzagging cut-olidrains to pare village forest plans.56 channelrainwateraway fromthe Groups organize most readily to de- fields,"56

1 R2 (1'68) Stateof theWorld 1989

The Nam* movement of Burkina Faso, REFORMING DEVELOPMENT which now spills over under different names into Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Despite the heartening rise of grassroots Niger, and Togo, is remarkable in a action, humanity is losing the struggle to number of ways. Reviving pre-colonial halt ecological decline. For every peas- self-help traditions, the movement un- ant league that staunches the hemor- leashes vast stores of peasant knowl- rhage of topsoil from a watershed, doz- edge, creativity, and energy to loosen ens more fail. Hundreds of conimuctities the grip of poverty and ecological deteri- remain mired in fatalism for each one oration in the drought-prone Sahel. (See that rallies to the common cause. Chapter 2.) Each year during the dry sea- Deep reforms in broader institutions son. thousands of villages undertake are the key to unleashing a wider grass- projects that they choose and design roots mobilization, because no popular with minimal assistance from outsiders. effort exists in an institutional vacuum. Along with five neighboring communi- An intricate matrix of human structures ties, for example, Somiaga built a large shapes the local space where grassroots dam and a series of check dams to trap groups work. a matrix that includes drinking and irrigation water and to slow churches, political parties, and social soil erosion. Villagers piled caged rocks clubs, as well as international develop- by hand to form a dam 180 meters long ment agencies and governments. and 4 meters high. Meanwhile, hundreds Whether intentionally or not. these institutions create many of the opportunities of Naar** farmers have adopted a simple and incentives for organized action; they technique of soil and water conservation also create many of the obstacles. In al- developed by Oxfam-UK, inwhich stones are piled in low rows along the most every case cited in the chapter thus far, larger institutions played au impor- contour to hold back the runoff from tor- tant role at different points in the pro - rential rains. While halting soil loss, cess.6t these diveetes increase crop yields dra- Local groups eventually collide with matically." forces they cannot control. Peasant asso- As deterioration of the resource base ciations cannot enact supportive agricul- pushes environmental issues to the fore tural policies or build roads to distant of many communities' concerns, the markets. Women's groups cannot de- foundations of a new international envi- velop and test modern contraceptive ronmental movement are in place. Local technologies or rewrite bank lending and national groups are extending tenta- rules. Forest people cannot give them- tive feelers out around the world, form- selves a seat at the table in national for- ing effective communication channels est planning. Thus, perhaps the greatest around issues of common interest. Just irony of community action for sustaina- in the last year, international environ- bility is that communities cannot do it mental networks have been formed in alone. Small may be beautiful, but it can Africa and L7tin America, adding to that also be insignificant." already exis;ing in Asia. Environmental- The prospects for grassroots self-help ism in Brazil has taken off in the eighties, are further limited in a world economy in and Sri Lanka has an environmental con- which vested interests are deeply en- gress with 100 member groups. New re- trenched and power is concentrated in a gional, continental, and global alliances few nations. Federal budget deficits in form each year, adding strands to the Washington drive up interestrates thickening web." worldwide, and protectionism in Europe In

... Mobilizing at the Grassroots (169) and Japan reduces markets for many but practice has been another matter. Third World exports. The combination For most governments and development of international debt payments and in- agencies,**grassrootsparticipation" dustrial-country trade barriers costs de- means getting peasants and stunt dwell- veloping nations about three times what erstobuildtheir own roads and they receive in development assistance schoolsthings they would never dream each year. Thus reforms at the interna- of demanding of the rich. The critical tional level are as important as those at element. control over the goals and pro- the village level.63 cess of development. has never gone to The paradox of the relationship be- thecommunitiesthemselves.Sonic tween community movements and inter- European agencies and many charitable national development institutions is that donors go further toward putting partic- both subscribe to the same goals and ipation into practice, but still. develop- both need what the other has, yet only ment assistance that is truly responsive rarely have they worked effectively to- to the initiatives of the poor is rare.64 gether. Many community organizations have deep misgivings about what they perceive as heavy-handed intervention- Small may be beautiful, but it can ism on the part of multilateral and bilat- also be insignificant. eral bodies such as the World Bank and U.S. Agency for International Develop- ment (AID). Development agencies, for This cautionary note notwithstanding, their part, generally view community or- many development assistance institu- ganizations as unstable amateurs, junior tions do seem to be in the midst of a partners in the serious business ofdevel- period of re-evaluation. A track record opment. over decades that can at best be termed A simple distinct;on untangles the is- disappointing has prompted them to sues that hog-tie foreign assistancethe lookfor more people-centeredap- distinction between aid and develop- proaches. A growing fraction of bilateral ment. Much that passes as aid does not assistance is already channeled through foster development, while much devel- northern charities such as CARE. seen opment has nothing to do with aid. Real by development agencies as a cost-ef- development is the process whe-eby in- fective alternative to weak or corrupt dividuals and societies build the ,apacity government minis tries.65 to meet their own needs and improve the Indeed, grassroots development quality of their own lives. Physically, it seems to have proved its effectiveness to means finding solutions to the basic such an extent that large aid donors necessities of nutritious food, clean want to jump on the bandwagon. The water, adequate clothing and shelter, problem is, they want to jump on with all and access to basic health care. Socially, their weightwithout first undergoing it means developing the institutions that the necessary restructuring and reorien- can promote the public good and re- tation. Within assistance agencies, ad- strain individual excess. Individually, it ministrators are rewarded for the num- means self-respect, for without personal ber of dollars they move across their dignity economic progress is a charade. desks rather than their sensitive support On a rhetorical level, international de- of the local process of change. It is no velopment institutions began singing surprise that they choose large, capital- the praises of community development intensive endeavors. Most development and popular participation in the fifties, projects are, in this sense, "funding-

1R4 (170) Slate of the World 1989 red"; development, by contrast, is people- included. .. aline item and supporting led.66 vouchers for the food supplied to the Those closest to the process of grass- dog that guards the stores."68 roots development rightfully warn that If bureaucracy is the organizational indiscriminately pumping money into culture of aid agencies, the culture of community organizations and indepen- community groups and the independent dent groups would be as bad as not sup- groups that support them could be porting them at all. Overfunding can called "visionary ad hoc-racy." Operat- subvert local control, distort community ing in the context of marginalized vil- priorities,promotecapital-intensive lages and slums, they confront constant technologies over effective local ones, change, unstable priorities, and short- and fuel jealousy between organizations lived opportunities. Working relations that should be allies.67 are founded not on contractual obliga- tions but on mutual trust. The logical but unfortunate result of combining bu- Most development projects are reaucracy with community groups is a "funding-led";development,by clash of organizational cultures that leaves both sides resentful and discon- contrast, is people-led. tent. The creative energy and commitment of community workers is wasted filing reports and stifled by arbitrary The central lesson of Naam, Sar- planning periods. Aid administrators' vodaya, harambee, and Chipko is that technical training, meanwhile, is frus- while money is necessary, it is far from trated by attempting to manage such an the most important ingredient. What unpredictable process. counts is organization, and tine local mo- The "project"nearly universal in mentum, initiative, and cont-ol it gener- the fidd of aidis another source of ates; although the organizing process problems. For development agencies, a cannot be forced from the outside, it can project is a discrete, defined entity: an be nurtured and catalyzed. Funding elaborately planned and budgeted un- should match and grow with a group's dertaking in a limited time frame with a capacity to employ those funds effec- long list of prescribed procedural sups tively. and stages. For community groups, by Another problem created by money- contrast, development is a process that centered development programs is a at various points may involve particular paralyzing burden of paperwork. An in- efforts such as digging wells or planting stitutionalized fear of misappropriation trees, but that has neither a beginning and graft creates what one AID em- nor an end, nor a final evaluation or pro- ployee terms an "ambience of pre-emp- ject document.69 tive cowardice." Required to account for With leadership from the independent every cent distributed and tabulate every sector, the outlines of a new assistance benefit delivered, aid agencies demand compact between grassroots groups and reams of accounts and reports, prior ap- northern donors are beginning to take proval for all decisions, and elaborate shape. Third World independent and planning that extends to minutiae. A grassroots groups will shoulder more British researcher reports that the quar- and more of the responsibility for direct terly accounts a German agency re- work, as their northern partners gradu- quired of a tiny Bengali independent ally retreat to a funding and support group "weighed over two kilograms and role. Simultaneously, northern groups

1S5 Mobilizing at the Grassroots ('7') will work harder to educate the public of and creative advocates in the world's industrial nations about the reality oflife most populous developing nations." in the Third World and to pressure in- If aid is to support development, insti- dustrial-country governments to pursue tutions need nothing less than to be policies that further the prospects of the turned on their heads: they must learn to poor majority, not only in assistance but take their lead from the village water more significantly in international debt, committees, health workers, and tree finance, trade, and military policy. Their planting brigades. For particular institu- most important role will be as a voice for tions this will mean different things. Bi- the world's poor in the nations of the lateral agencies should be isolated from world's wealthy.70 the yearly shifts of foreign policy, as arc As this transition evolves, action is the Inter-American Foundation and the also called for to overcome "project- Swedish International Development Au- kis," Specifically, funding should be thority. In addition to drastically cutting process-oriented, given to an organiza- paperwork, they can progressively de- tion on the basis of its past record and an centralize operations so that their staff is agreement on goals and principles of op- on the ground with the development eration. Initial funding would be small process itself.7s sometimesless than$10,000and Multilateral development hanks, would increase steadily as the local which increasingly lend to governments group developed a capacity to use larger not for projects but to implement certain sums. The relationship would involve policies, such as "structural adjustment" austerity measures, could use that same more than funding, however, moving to- leverage on governments to create an ward a long-term goal of equal partner- institutional environment supportive of ship through information sharing, train- grassroots actiona critical condition ing, and building of an international for local success. They can also open network." their planning process and policy dia- The U.S.-funded Inter-American logue to grassroots participation. De- Foundation, which grants sums gener- signing major development programs allyunder $100,1100tograssroots and policies without consulting local groups and independent development people is like prescribing medicine with- organizations through a highly qualified out asking what Iturts.74 field staff, is protected by institutional Northern charities can accelerate their autonomy from foreign policy priorities. progress along the spectrum from giving In 1980, Congress created a parallel out groceries to supporting the efforts of body called the African Development the poor to help themselves. Equally im- Foundation, which is now getting off the portant, they can educate policymakers ground after surviving several attempts and the public in industrial nations at political sabotage from the Reagan ad- about the true conditions and priorities ministration. Oxfam-UK and its name- of the poor. Charities can also pioneer sakes in Belgium, Canada, and the international forms of participation in United States have been committed to development assistance policy, by put- promoting local initiatives for perhaps ting grassroots representatives on their longer than any other major charitable boards of directors, and by refining flex- donor. Ashoka, an American founda- ible funding relations. tion, has seen the importance of process Deep down, working with the grass- funding. It provides no-strings-attached roots is a philosophical attitude, an alle- grants to rising community organizers giance. "Grassroots development is a 1R6 (172) Stale of the II'odd 1989 way of traveling, more than a goal." volunteers into the countryside; in one writes Pierre Prades !and. a French col- year, they raised literacy from 50 to 87 laborator with Naam. "It means being percent. In 1984, Burkina Faso initnu- ready to travel in a manunie wagon with nized three quarters of itschildren peoplewith all the delays, punctures. against measles. meningitis, and yellow breakdowns, and sweat that implies fever in the space of three months. rather than driving along in one's air- Kenya is waging war on soil erosion. as conditioned Range Rover with two spare thousands of wonten's groups terrace wheels. cool Coke in the icebox, and a mountainsides with crude shovels and fixed timetabie."75 hoes.77 During World War II, millions of So- viet. American. Asian, and European civilians recycled materials, conserved energy, and planted victory gardens to FROM THE BOTTOM AND THE boost food production. Today, the threat to global security from ecological TOP degradation merits a similar mobiliza- Reforming the world's development as- tion. (See Chapter 8.) Although unprecedented in scope. the actions neces- sistance agencies, official and unofficial. sary are far from mysterious; in fact, will be a monumental task. But the larger millions have been engaged in them for challenge in reversing global deteriora- years. What is required is an enormous tion will be to forge an alliance between number of simple acts: organizing local local groups and national governments. groups, teaching literacy and preventive Only governntents have the resources health care, spreading family planning, and authority to create the conditions and planting trees. for full-scale grassroots mobilization Many things can be accomplished. of and nothing less will now suffice if sus - course, short of a wholesale govern- tainability is to be achieved. As grass- ment-grassroots mobilization. No state roots development theorist Sheldon is monolithic: even in Marcos's Philip- Avails writes: "It may well be that wild- pines. the National Irrigation Adminis- flowers grow by themselves. But grass- tration transformed itself into a people- roots organizations do not. They are cul- centered institution, cooperating with tivated, in large measure, by just policies peasant associations. Such changes are and competent government agencies already promoted by grassroots groups that do their job."76 and could be supported by multilateral In the rare cases where a national- institutions like the International Mone- local alliance has been forged. extraordi- tary Fund, which currently uses its lever- nary gains have followed. South Korea age to impose austerity plans on Third and China have used village-level orga- World governments.78 nizations to plant enormous expanses of In many cases, the mobilization re- trees, implement national population quired is not one of performing a certain policies, and boost agricultural produc- task but of enacting a policy. Grassroots tion. Zimbabwe has trained over 500 energy spent collecting bottles for recy- community-selected family planners to cling, for example. might be better spent improve maternal and child health and campaigning for citywide recycling col- control population growth.. In the year lection.Becausewesternindustrial after the 1979 Nicaraguan revolution, a countries have such disproportionate massive literacy campaign sent 90.000 power in the international economic sys-

1R7 Mobilizing at the Grassroots (173) tern, their citizens have a special respon- a sustainable base. Until governments sibility in applying pressure on lawmak- and international institutions join the ers to establish farsighted policie° on in- struggle, it cannot succeed, but in the ternational debt and trade. They can meantime hope lies with individual citi- also use the power of their pocketbooks zens. Our most gifted, young and old. to support socially conscious and envi- have a critical role to play in the commu- ronmentally sustainable enterprises. nities where they live. To be seeds of Full-scale grass roots-governmentpart- change, these men and women will need nership can only come about when a mo- a dear personal vision and deep deter- tivated and organized populace joins mination mixed with patience. humility, forces with high-caliber leadership, a pragmatism, and insight. prospect that is unlikely in many coun- They will join a grassroots campaign tries without political change. Unre- already being waged in the villages and presentative elites rule many nations and shantytowns of the Third World: In the all too often they crush popular move- war-ravaged south of Zimbabwe, villag- ments rather than yield their preroga- ers gather at dusk to plan the wells and tives;elsewhere,powerfulinterests ditches they will dig to combat drought. vehemently defend the status quo. In the In a Brazilian favela called People of end, self-helpwillclash with these God, two young doctors work with a forces. Like all development, self-help team of neighborhood women to teach merges into politics: it is the struggle to preventive health care. In a remote control the future. Particularly where Bolivian jungle, a band of Indians de- governments are nondemocratic, that mands an end to clear-cutting by timber struggle holds the potential to erupt in exporters in favor of sustainable forestry conflict, confrontation, and violence. by local people.88 In the final analysis, the most lasting Whether these heartening beginnings contribution of community groups may become a global ground swell depends not be the direct benefits they provide only on how many more individuals their members but the fundamental commit their creativity and energy to the changes they bring to the world's politi- challenge. One truth becomes clearer cal landscape. Self-help organizations with each passing year: we humans are formed in Philippine slums in the seven- the only force in the world powerful ties, for example, played an important enough to end global poverty and envi- role in the "people's power" revolution ronmental degradation. 1 i.e inescap- that toppled the Marcos dictatorship in able lesson for each of us is best distilled 1986.78 in the words of Angeles Serrano, a The time has comeindeed it may be grandmother and community activist in slipping awayfor grassroots mobiliza- Manila's Leveriza slum"Act, act, act. tion worldwide to put our civilization on You can't just watch."81

18 10 OutliningaGlobal Action Plan Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, and Sandra Postel

Many societies have been severely tested Lion. Human activities have pushed the over the several thousand years since planet's natural support systems danger- civilization began. Some successfully ously out of kilter. Continuing on a busi- met the challenges confronting them ness-as-usual path thus virtually assures and thrived; others did not. But the severe economic disruption, social insta- world as a whole has never been so chal- bility, and human suffering. lenged as it is today. The questions hu- In these last few years of the twentieth manity now faces are profound ones: century, difficult questions are emerging Can we protect this and future genera- of social equity, national sovereignty, tions from harmful doses of ultraviolet and individual rights and responsibili- radiation? Can we avoid the biological ties. A person may be able to afford a impoverishment of the earth projected large, energy-consumptive automobile, for the next two decades? Can we head but can the planet afford it? Indeed, how off runaway climate change? Can we many carbon-emitting automobiles can bring population and food supplies into the atmosphere tolerate without the balance so that famine does not persis- planet's habitability being threatened? tently stalk the land? Similarly. a couple may desire and be An affirmative answer to these ques- able to support several children, but can tions depends on restoring and preserv- the planet afford several children per ing the conditions that make the earth family? habitable, a place capable of supporting Issues of equity also span the genera- a diversity of life and modern civiliza- tions. Does our generation have the

169 Outlining a Global Action Plan (173) right to extinguish plant and animal spe- during Third World debt and demilita- des that have evolved over millions of rizing the global economy are not ad- years? Do we not have an obligation to dressedinthisagenda,theyare preserve our biological heritage for fu- prerequisites for successful implementa- ture generations? tion of the specific measures we are sug- Like it or not, we find ourselves in a gesting. world where we are responsible for each The capacity of national leaders and of other's well-being. Inefficient use of fos- international institutions will be severely sil fuels in the Soviet Union and the tested in the effort to put the world on a United States contributestoglobal firm ecological and economic footing. warming and thus to the eventual inun- Vet in the end, it is we as individuals who dation of rich cropland in the Nile River are being tested. Our values collectively delta of Egypt. Uncontrolled air pollu- shape social prioritieswhat policies are tion by any country in central Europe formulated, how resources are used, and threatens forests throughout the region. when change begins to occur. The use of chlorofluorocarbons anywhere puts the ozone layer at risk everywhere.

In the end, it is we as individuals ACLIMATE-SENSITIVE who are being tested. ENERGY STRATEGY Therecan l'e little doubt that energy Never have national governments and production is now changing he earth's international institutionsfaced prob- climateand with it many of the natural lems more difficult than those now systems on which humanity depends. before them. Our agenda for action (See Chapter 1.) Food production, water focuses on four areas: developing en- supplies, forest products industries, and ergy strategies that have climate protec- fisheries willallbe at risk if global warm- tion as their cornerstone; expanding the ing continues to accelerate during the earth's forest cover so as to meet basic next several decades. The huge quanti- economic and environmental needs in ties of oil, coal, and natural gas that the Third World and to slow global fueled the modern age may well lead to warming; redoubling effortsto meet its decline. food needs in light of an ominous trend There arc no quick fixes to this prob- of declining per capita grain production; lem. Avoiding destructiveclimate and braking the tremendous momentum change will require a fundamental reor- of population growth that already is un- dering of national energy priorities dermining living standards in large parts within the next decade. Carbon dioxide of the world. (CO2) accounts for about half of Ilic glo- Obviously, a comprehensive global ac- bal warming now occurring. Producing tion plan would include many other is- less CO2 requires using less fossil fuels, suesinfant mortality, inequitable which means that other energy sources wealth distribution, and industrial pollu- must be found to run the global econ- tion, to name a few. But failure to meet omy. the challenges outlined in this chapter What woulda serious effort at slowing will make dealing with other pressing climate change look like? There are es- problems virtually impossible. While re- sentially three ways to displace fossil

190 (176) Slate of lhe World 1989 fuels:improvingenergyefficiency, become a prohibitively expensive way of thereby accomplishing the same tasks providing electricity or displacing car- using less oil and coal; developing re- bon emissions. Throughout most of newable sources of energy; and expand- North America. Western Europe. and ing the use of nuclear power. Our con- even the Soviet Union, people are reject- chision is that the simultaneous pursuit ing the expansion of nuclear power. Un- of renewables and efficiencyand the less the technology is completely re- abandonment of die nuclear power "op- vamped and there is a sea change in tion"is the only safe and cost-effective public attitudes. both of which are still way to slow global warming. Meanwhile. remote, that scale of expansion is impos- natural gas has an important role to play sible.2 as a transition fuel since it produces less Improved energy efficiency can have a carbon per unit of energy than do the much larger and more immediate impact other fossil fixls. on carbon emissions and global warm- The problem with nuclear power is ing. For example, the efficiency of U.S. that over the past 40 ye yes it has ab- buildings, industry, atid transportation sorbed the preponderance of govern- improved 26 percent between 1973 and ment energy investments and diverted 1987; this kept carbon emissions at 1.2 attention from other attractive options. billion tons per year instead of reaching Nuclear power does provide about 15 1.6 billion tons annually. An additional percent of the world's electricity. and output of 300 pillion tons of carbon could in theory be used to replace coal- emissions was 'ded by efficiency im- fired power plants and reduce carbon provements in other countries. Similar emissions. But this is not a practical re- gains in efficiency are possible in the fu- sponse. Since its troubled start. nuclear ture using already available technolo- power has been a problem-ridden tech- gies.3 nology; unlike renewable energy. its problems are growing. It has become increasingly expensive and accident-prone No other approach offers as cost- in the past decade. And the critical prob- effective an opportunity for lim- lem of disposing of radioactive wastes has yet to be solved.' iting carbon emissions as energy To replaceallcoal-fired power plants efficiency does. with nuclear ones by 2025 would require building a minimum of one plant every two and a half days for 38 years. The Shifting to more fuel-efficient trans- world would have 18 times as many nu- portation can sharply reduce carbon clear plants as it does today at a mini- emissions. The world's nearly 400 mil- mum cost of $144 hillion annually, and lion cars currently spew 547 million tons carbon emissions would still be higher of carbon into the at mosphere each year. than they are now. Nuclear power could 10 percent of the total from fossil fuels. of course be pursued as one of a long list Projectionsbased on recent trends of options, but for this it is poorly suited. would have these emissions nearly dou- Even on a limited scale. this energy bling by 2010. However, if a combina- source requires vast financial resources tion of improved mass transit, greater and technical skills, curtailing the devel- use of bicycles for short trips, and a car- opment of other options. As construc- bon tax kept the world fleet to 500 mil- tion, operating, and decommissioning lion cars by the year 2010, and if these costs have grown, nuclear power has vehicles averaged 50 miles to the gallon Outlining a Global Anion Plan (1771 rather than the current 20. autoniobile Switching from a conventional 1,000 - carbon emissions would fall to 274 mil- megawatt coal-fired power station to a lion tons, half of what they are today. combined cycle system allows a 30-per- (Prototype cars have already been devel- cent improvement in efficiency and a oped that get over 70 miles per gallon,)4 commensurate cut in carbon emissions Carbon emissions can also be lowered of 568,000 tons per year. However, by improving the efficiency ofelectricity- switching to a natural-gas-fired, steam- using devices. Currently, 64 percent of injected turbine permits a 70-percent cut the world's electricity is produced using in carbon emissions. For the world as a fossil fuels (chiefly coal). accounting for whole, improving the average efficiency 27 percent of global carbon emissions of today's 1 million megawatts of coal- from fossil fuels (1.5 billion tons annu- fired capacity by 30 percent could cut ally). Electricity is used in many different carbon emissions by 312 million tons.s ways, all of which can become far more About 5.5 billion tons of carbon were efficient. Based on current technologies, emitted through fossil fuel use in 1988; for example. electric motors can be this will go as high as 10 billion tons in made at least 40 percent more efficient 2010 if it grows at just 3 percent annu- than they art today. and refrigerators 75 ally. Overall, energy efficiency improve- percent.9 ments worldwide between 1990 and More-efficient lighting systems have a 2010 could make a 3-billion-ton differ- particularly large potential. Worldwide, enceinthe annual amount being lighting accounts for about 17 percent of released to the atmosphere. A study by electricity use or 250 million tons of an- Irving Mintzer of the World Resources nual carbon emissions. These emissions Institute suggests that a continuing re- continue to grow rapidly as electric light- duction in emissions of this magnitude ing is used more widely in developing could make a difference of 0.5-1.5 de- countries. If the world were to double grees Celsius in the global average tem- the elf- iency of these systems by the perature by 2075. There is simply no year 2010, it could cut a projected 450 other approach that offers as cost-effec- million tons of carbon emissions from tive an opportunity for limiting carbon lighting in half, to 225 million tons. For emissions as energy efficiency does.9 common household use, compact fluo- Renewable sources of energy do not rescent bulbs using 18 watts of electric- have nearly as large a potential to dis- ity can already provide the same illumi- place fossil fuels in the years immedi- nation as incandescent bulbs that use 75 ately ahead as energy efficiency improve- watts. Improved bulbs and ballasts can ments do. However, that potential will cut the electricity use of commercial grow as the technologies are improved. buildings' lighting by 75 percent using The outlines of a successful strategy al- existing technology.6 ready exist. Solar, hydro, wind, and geo- Cogeneration (the combined produc- thermal power have been pursued with tion of heat and power) also has enor- notable successes by governments and mous potential to improve the efficiency private companies since the mid-seven- with which electricity is generated. This ties. Across a broad spectrum of tech- technology, already extensively used in nologies, costs have fallen steadily and some count:-:es, allows the inevitable performance has improved. If renewable waste heat from electricity generation to sources are to supply a large share of the be used directly by buildings or industry world's energy by mid-century, then or for further electricity generation in a they must bevig, zously developed combined cycle system.? today.19

1f 2 (178) State of the World1989 Hydropower supplies about 21 per- commitment to the development and cent of the electricity produced world- use of energy-efficient and renewable wide, displacing 539 million tons of car- technologies is a prerequisite to stabiliz- bon that ivotild otherwise be entitted ing world climate. So too are individual each year. Solar collectors are a major decisions about the kind of refrigerator source of hot water in Israel, wind power to buy, the amount of hotne insulation to has taken hold in California. and geo- install, and how much to drive a car. thermal energy is a major electricity For policymaka-s, the essential chal- source in the Philippines.11 lenge today is to improve energy effi- Solar photovoltaic cells, the cost of ciency in a period of low energy prices. which has fall ?n 90 percent in the past The costs of climate change and other decade, are already being widely used on environmental effects of fossil fuels can remote communications systems and be reflected in prices that consumers pay portable electronic devices. Photovolta- by raising taxes on gasoline and other ics are already an economical electricity carbon-based fuels. The United States, source for Third World villages, and as for example, could raise $100 billion an- costs fall further in the next decade they nually by hiking its gasoline taxes by $1 will become economical for large power per gallon to the European average tax grids everywhere. The world now has of about $1.50 per gallon. In addition, approximately 2.000 megawatts of wind governments could levy a "carbon tax" power in place. which produces about 2 on fossil fuels, with the tax correspond- billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, dis- ing to :he amount of carbon in each fuel. This would hit coal appropriately hard, placing 540.000 tons of carbon annually. since it produces more carbon per unit If wind power and photovoltaic electric- of energy used than do either oil or natu- itydevelopmentwere accelerated, ral gas. Energy prices would rise and ef- reaching 150,000 megawatts in the year ficiency would improve. Renewable en- 20 W. they could displace 71 million tons ergysourceswould become more of carbon emissions a year." competitive. 14 If policymakers do not grasp the link Ideally, such taxes should be agreed between energy efficiency, renewable on globally so that the additional costs energy, and global warming, climate sta- would not affect the international com- bilization will not be possible. Although petitiveness of national economies. The governments have supported these tech- revenues could be used in part to offset nologies for over a decade, their com- other taxes and in part to develop per- mitment has been inconstant. This is manent and stable funding for energy particularly true in the United States, efficiency and renewable energy pro- where research and development bud- grams.If industrial-countrygovern- gets for renewables and efficiency soared ments devoted 10 percent of the reve- in the late seventies and then were each nues of such a tax to energy efficiency, cut by four fifths between 1981 and renewable energy development, and 1988. The U.S. Department of Trans- reforestation in the Third World, it portation's recent decision to lower fuel would encourage a broad-based assault economy standards for automobiles and on the problem of climate change. light trucks will exacerbate global warm- Large-scale investments in energy- ing, as will the choice of Chinese officials efficient buildings can also help stabilize to emphasize extensive coal mining climate.Governments can provide rather than efficiency." building owners with technical assist- A serious and lasting government ance and utility companies can invest in

IR Outlining a Global Aaiun Plan (179) improved building efficiency rather than 1Vorldisparticularly severe. Carbon new plants. These investments can be emissions there are growing at annual essentially self-financing via a revolving rates as high as 5 percent, driven by fund since they pay for themselves in rapid population growth and expanding lowered fuel bills.15 economies. China, for example, has Efficiency standards for automobiles, plans to more than double its use of coal appliances, and other energy-using de- by sometime after the turn of the cen- vices are another proven way to reduce tury, an "achievement" that could well fossil fuel use. U.S. appliance efficiency push it past the United States and the standards already enacted will cumula- Soviet Union as the world's number one tively displace over 300 million tons of carbon emitter. Already deeply in debt, carbon emissions by the year 2000. The most developing countries P .. chroni- broad international market for technolo- cally short of capital. One answer is to gies and the common interest in climate redirect a portion of the enormous flow stabilization argue for international ef- of international lending currently de- ficiencystandardsforautomobiles, voted to building power plants and elec- trucks, lighting systems, appliances, and triclines. The World Bank has just electric motors. For example, reaching a begun to consider major loans for im- minimum new-car fuel efficiency of 50 proved efficiency.17 miles per gallon by the year 2000 and 60 Global warming has already opened a miles per gallon by 2010 would be an new chapter in the debates over energy important step toward restoring climate policy in many national capitals. Old bat- stability .16 tle lines, first established when high oil To slow global warming significantly, prices commanded attention, have in hundreds of billions of dollars of invest- many cases been redrawn. Many politi- ments in improved energy efficiency will cians still seem to be hoping for techni- ultimately be required. Althoughit cal fixes that will allow them to avoid might seem that in a debt-swamped making hard choices. This resistance will world such levels are impossible, many have to be overcome if effective energy energy efficiency options are inherently policy is to be forged out of the global cost-effective. Companies and individu- warming threat. als save money via reduced fuel bills. Ul- timately,themoreenergy-efficient economies tend to be more competitive Global warming has opened a new in world markets. Government's role is chapter in the debates over energy to set the framework that allows these policy in many national capitals. kinds of cost-effective investments to proliferate. In other areas, government has a more direct role to play. It would, for example, Unfortunately, the challenge of mak- make sense for the international coming global warming a central concern of munity to dev:se a program to use national energy planners is far from photovoltaics rather than coal to elec- being realized. Energy policymaking is trify all Third World villages by 2010. often driven by self-interested industries The United Nations and the World Bank and unions, and some, such as the oil could thereby spur sustainable develop- and coal lobbies, push for policies that ment and help slow global warming. accelerate global warming. Key legisla- The challenge of raising sufficient tive committees are dominated by prov- funds to invest in efficiency in the Third inces or states that produce fossil fuels; 1°4 4

(18o) State of 1hr World 1989 many of the laws and tax breaks that A NEW FUTURE FOR emerge are intended to propel their growth. In Eastern Europe, ossified en- FORESTS ergy ministries continue to emphasize meeting their five-year plans, regardless The grim state of much of the world's of the ecological costs. forests and the consequences of their de- The tendency is simply to add global struction came to light in numerous, un- warming to a long list of considerations settling ways in 1988. Hills stripped of that go into making energy policy. This trees in the Himalayan waterThed contri- is not enough. If energy policymaking buted to the worst flooding on record in continues to be the domain of short- Bangladesh. New satellite data showed term thinking and narrow political con- that 8 million hectares of Brazilian rain siderations, there can be little hope. If forest were burned in 1987 alone, which the climate is to be stabilized, it must means that the widely cited figure of 11.3 become the cornerstone of national en- million hectares for annual forest clear- ergy policies. ing in all of the tropics is probably at Encouragingly, three global warming least 50 percent too low. In industrial bills were introduced in the U.S. Con- countries, forests continued to deterio- gress in 1988, and two included "least - rate under the stresses of air pollution cost" energy plans designed to ensure and acid rain.20 that the most cost-effective means to dis- Evidence that global warming has place carbon emissions (chiefly energy begun underscores the importance of efficiency) are pursued first. Govern- forests worldwide. The earth's vegeta- ment programs to improve the efficiency tion and soils store roughly triple the of automobiles, to step up research on amount of carbon held in the atmo- efficient technologies, and to accelerate sphere. When cleared or burned, forests the development of renewable energy release much of their carbon, adding to technologies are good first steps.38 carbon dioxide buildup and hastening To redirect world energy trends in the globalwarming.Thoughestimates absence of direct market pressures is an are uncertain, deforestation probably unprecedentedchallenge.Politicians released a fifth to half as much carbon in will have to rise above the parochial in- 1988 as the burning of fossil fuels did.21 terests that often motivate them, and Only vigorous efforts to protect the companies and individuals will have to remaining forests and to plant billions focus on the real bottom line. which more trees each year can reverse these shows that improved efficiency is both worrisome trends. Yet many tropical cost-effective and can slow global warm- countriesplaguedbydebt,weak ing. Action will be facilitated if govern- economies, and burgeoning popula- Y ments adopt short- and long-term car- tionssee few alternatives to clearing bon reduction goals along the lines of forests as ways to earn quick foreign ex- the 20-percent reduction by 2005 sug- change, to spur regional development, gested at the 1988 Toronto climate con- or to open up new areas for settlement. ference. Perhaps more productive would They continue to promote wasteful and b.t energy efficiency targets either by sec- destructive logging and the clearing of tor or for the economy as a whole, In any primary forest for cropping and grazing. case, there is a clear need both for early even though suchactivities are not national initiatives and eventual interna- economically or ecologically sustainable. tional agreements to reduce carbon Much forest has been cleared in Brazil, emissions from fossil fuels.ig for example, because of government

195 Outlining a Global :Salon Plan (ISI) subsidies that encourage cattle ranching, I1i'O, ratified in 1985, calls for national even though depletion of the pasture- policies that "encourage sustainable uti- land's fertility causes the ventures to be lization and conservation of tropical for- abandoned in a matter of years.22 ests and their genetic resources." At Developing alternatives is thus crucial group's meeting in Rio de Janeiro in to a broad-based strategy of expanding June 1988, funding was approved for a global forest cover. One approach is the major projec«o study the feasibility of exchange of some debt relief for more sustainable forest management in the conservation-oriented resource policies. Brazilian state of Acre. By demonstrat- Tropical countries would benefit ing economic alternatives to wasteful economically from the easing of their logging and forest conversion practices, debt burdens as well as from the more such projects can help pave the way for sustainable use of their resources. Com- forest protection.25 mercial banks and industrial-country governments, which are beginning to realize that some debt will never be repaid, Reforesting 130 million hectares have little to lose from the cancellation would cut the release of carbon of "bad debt" from their books. Thus, the time could be ripe for such a linkage. from all human activities by 8 to 11 Among the ternis of these debt-relief percent. packages would be the elimination of policies that promote destructive logging and the clearing of forests For un- A major global reforestation effort is sustainable uses.23 the other key component of a strategy to Another important step is for develop- preserve and expand the world's forest ment institutions. especially the World cover. In 1988 we estimated that trees Bank, to exercise their leverage in pro- need to be planted on the equivalent of moting sounder strategies. The Bank 130 million hectaresan area slightly needs not only to stop funding projects larger than Ethiopiain order to meet that promote senseless forest destruc- growing demands for fueiwood and in- tion. but to more actively support sus- dustrial wood products ann to stabilize tainable agriculture and forestry efforts soil and water resources in the Third that can relieve pressures on primary World. Accomplishing this goal over the forests. The current pace of deforesta- next 15 years would require planting tion warrants more drastic action than some 15 billion trees annually.26 hasye( been consideredincluding. Besides helping meet basic economic perhaps, making certain development and environmental needs, such an un- aid contingent on the elimination of precedented reforestation effort is criti- policies and programs leading to forest cal to a global strategy of slowing the destruction. Pressure from aid institu- pace of climate change. As trees grow. tions seems to have played a role, for they remove carbon dioxide from the at- example, in Brazilian President Jose Sar- mosphere through photosynthesis, ney's October 1988 decision to tempo- thereby slowing the CO2 buildup. Suc- r-.,ily suspend government incentives cessfully reforesting 130 million hect- that have promoted forest clearing.24 ares would reduce net carbon emissions Stepped-up support for the interna- from tropical forests by some 660 mil- tional Tropical Timber Organization lion tons annually until the trees reach (1TIO) could also help slow deforesta- maturity (after subtracting 10 million tion. The agreement setting up the hectares of trees that would be burned

196 (182) State of the World 1989 quickly for fuel). cutting the current re- tares of trees in developing countries lease of carbon from all human activities and 40 million hectares in industrial by 8 to i 1 percent:27 ones mould reduce worldwide carbon Although forest cover in much of the emissit,ns from all human activities by industrial world is fairly stable. the ur- about .t fourth of current levels. (See gency of climatechangewarrants Table 10-1.) This would slow the pace greater efforts to capture more carbon of warming for several decades. buying by increasing forest productivity and precious time to adapt and respond to planting more trees there as (veil. Curb- climate change in other ways. And this ing acid rain and air pollutants is crucial expansion of forest cover is vital for to safeguarding forest health and assur- other reasons in any caseincluding ing that trees can obtain their maximum preserving biological diversity. meeting carbon-fixing potential. Beyond that, fitelwood needs, and rehabilitating de- governments can design tree-planting graded environments.(SecChapter initiatives to turn their national land- scapesurban and ruralinto greater sinks for atmospheric carbon. Ifindustrialcountriescollectively In Kenya, the Greenbelt Movement planted trees on an additional 40 million has mobilized farmers and school- hectaresan area roughly the size of japan. or two-and-a-half times the area children in planting more than 2 slated to be planted in grass or trees be- million trees. tween 1986 and 1990 under the U.S. Conservation Reserve Programthey mild remove some 200 million tons of Successlitllyreforesting such large carbon from the atmosphere arnuafk areas will require sustained and secure while the trees were growing. That sources of finding. One possibility is for would offset the carbon released annu- governments to levy a reforestation tax ally by 211 average-sized coal-burning on some forest- or energy-related activ- power plants.28 ity they desire to discourage. Some trop- Oncethenewlyplantedstands ical countries, for example, might tax matured, carbon released by the decom- timber harvested for export by private position or dead trees over time would contractors, generating funds for refor- balance carbon fixed by replacement estation while simultaneously discourag- growth. At this point, mature trees could ing damaging "timber booms- of the be harvested on a sustainable yield basis sort that have ravaged forests in Cote to replace coal in electrical generation. d'Ivoire, Ghana. the Philippines, and Using half that harvest to generate elec- elsewhere. tricity, for example. could reduce coal- Industrial-country governments might horning by some 100 million tons annu- levy the tax on gasoline consumption, ally.In contrast to energy produced fossil-fuel generated electricity, or some from fossil fuels, a wood-energy system other carbon-emitting activity and, as managed in this way helps fix carbon in suggested earlier in this chapter, use the short term and makes a continuous part of the revenues to support refor- contribution to stabilizing the earth's cli- estation either domestically or abroad. mate. In the United States. such an initiative COIICeliVely, a global strategy of halv- could be linked with the Conservation ing tropical deforestation and of plant- Reserve Program, under which highly ing the equivalent of 130 million hec- erodible land is being removed from

197 Outlining a Global rtion Plan r831 Table 10-1, Projected Net Reductions in Carbon Emissions from Expanded Forest Protection and Reforestation Efforts

Net Carbon Share of Total Carbon Emission Emissions from Fossil Fuels Target Reductions and Deforestation] (million tons) (percent) Halving tropical deforestation rates 8302 12

Planting equivalent of 130 million hectares of 6603 9 trees in Third World

Planting equivalent of 40 million hectares of 2004 3 trees in industrial countries

Total 1.690 24 'Total estimated at 7.1 billion tons per year. 5.5 billion from fossil fuels and 1.6 billion from deforestation.?Midpoint of estimated range.'Assumes average annual carbon-fixing rate of 5.5 tons per hectare. and that 10 million hectares would lield no carbon-fixing benefits because trees would be burned quickly for fuel.4Assuntes average annual carbon-fixing rate of 5 tons per hectare. SOttRCES: Worldwatch Institute. based on R.A. Houghton et al., "The Flux of Carbon from Terrestrial Ecosystems to the Atmosphere in 1980 Due to Changes in Land Use: Geographic Diu ribution of the Global Flux," Tent's. February /April 1987: Sandra Postel and I.ori Heise, Reforesting the Earth. Worldwatch Paper 83 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch lnstintb... April 1988): Sandra Brown et al.. "Biomass of Tropical Tree Plantations and its implications for the Global Carbon Budget." Canadian Journal of Forest Research. Vol. 16, No. 2. 1986. crop production under 10-year contracts Greenbelt Movement, sponsored by the and planted in trees or grass, Daniel National Council of Women. has mobil- Dudek of the Environmental Defense ized more than 15,000 Farmers and a Fund has suggested such a linkage for schoolchildren in planting offsetting future carbon emissions from more than 2 million trees. Virginia- planned fossil fuel power plants. He esti- based Applied Energy Services, an inde- mates that a decade's worth of new emis- pendent U.S. power company, is volun- sions could be balanced by planting one tarilyhelpingfundareforestation quarter of the Conservation Reserve in project in Guatemala with the explicit trees. The utilities budding the power intent of offsetting the carbon emissions plants would foot the bill, possibly with resultingfrom anew cogeneration sonic assistance from the government rower plant to be built in Connecticut. through the reserve program.30 And the American Forestry Association Orchestrating large-scalereforesta- has proposed an urban reforestation tion worldwide presents major chal- program with a target of planting some lenges. It will require the support and 100 million trees in cities and suburbs energy of national leaders, development around the country by 1992.31 agencie.,, corporations, nongovernmen- Finally, a strategy aimed at expanding tal organizations, community groups. the earth's forest cover and stabilizing andmost importantlyindividual citi- climate needs as a foundation much bet- zens. ter data on the status of forests than now Examples of the diverse kinds of ac- exist. While worldwide carbon emissions tions needed already exist. In Kenya, the from fossil fuels can be plotted with a

193 (184) Slate of the ll'orld 1989 good degree of confidence each year, MEETING FUTURE FOOD those from deforestation cannot. Huge uncertainties remain about how fast NEEDS tropical forests are being cleared, how In many ways, the nineties will be un- much regrowth is taking place on lands like any decade that the world's farmers formerly cleared, and how much bio- have ever faced. There will be little op- mass (and therefore carbon) is contained portunity forexpandingcultivatedarea; in forested areas. Increased and sus- irrigatedarea, while growing slowly rained funding to resolve these issues is worldwide,is declining in sotne key crucial. A promising step forward is the countries. For the world's more ad- undertaking of a new forest assessment vanced farmers. there are few new tech- using retnote sensing technologies by nologies to draw upon. In many coun- scientists from the National Aeronautics tries, returns on the use of additional and Space Adminstration's Goddard In- fertilizerwhich has been the driving stitute for Space Studies, the Woods force behind the worldwide expansion Hole Research Center in Massachusetts. of food on _put over the past four the U.N. Environment Programme's decadesare diminishing. And, finally, Global Environmental Monitoring Sys- the prospect of global warming now tem, and the U.N. Food and Agriculture hangs over the future of agriculture.33 Organization (FAO). The first stage, ex- On the demand side. the annual incre- pected to have begun in late 1988, will ment in world population is projected to pinpoint deforestation "hot spots" climh to record highs in the years imme- areas of rapid forest clearing, such as diately ahead. The 86 million added in those documented in parts of the Brazil- 1988 are expected to joined by at least ian Amazonwhich will help focus for- 90 million annually during the early est protection elforts.32 nineties. And most oldie added millions National governments, with the help will lire in countries where nutrition is of international development organiza- already inadequate and, in many cases, tims, also need to engage in more deteriorating.34 long-term forest planning. Tropical for- Meeting future food needs is a far ests rarely are managed as the mul- more complex undertaking today than it tipurpose,renewable resources they was 20 years ago. During the sixties, out- are, even though such management is lining a strategy for expanding food out- the key to maximizing their benefits to put was relatively simple in most coun- society over the long term. With the tries. The key was assuring farmers a late 1985 launch of the Tropical For- price for their harvest that would make estry Action Plan, jointly sponsored by investments in fertilizer, irrigation, and FAO,theU.N.DevelopmentPro- improved varieties profitable. In many gramme, the World Resources Insti- developing countries this required re- tute, and the World Bank, a framework versing food price policies that had tra- was estahlished for improved planning ditionally catered to urban interests, and management. and for stepped-up substituting food price supports for food forest protection and tree planting ef- price ceilings. When governments adop- forts. The action plan's ultimate impact, ted these price support policies and en- however,willdepend on individual suredthatyield-raisinginputs were governments making the hard choices available, farmers could often double or to restructure forest policies and invest triple the productivity of their land. in reforestation. Restoring the rapid growth in world

IRS. Outlining a elobal :talon Plan ( 185 1 food output that existed from 1950 to small farmers, using family labor, can 1984 will not be easy. In some countries boost output by continuing to use more and regions, massive gains in output are labor per hectare even though the value still possible. In others, the potential for of the resultant additional output is less large jumps in the near future is limited. than the prevailing wage, Large land- Achieving a satisfactory balance between owners who rely on hired labor cannot food and people is becoming more dif- afrrird to do this." ficult and may not be possible without In the Soviet Union. reforms that raising the efficiency of feedgrain use strengthen the link between effort and and dramatically lowering birth rates in reward for those working the land could countries where population is still grow- substantially increase the productivity of ing rapidly. agriculture. A plan to lease land to indi- Among the areas where massive in- vidual farmers for up to 50 years, an- creases in output are unlikely, because nounced in Moscow in August 1988, yields are already high and response to could measurably lift farm output, per- the use of additional fertilizer is low. are haps reducing the acedtoimport Japan, China, Western Europe. and grain.39 North America. Some regions, such as For some countries, many of which are the semiarid West African Sahel, have no in Africa, local rainfall is too low and technologies available that will sharply irrigation water too scarce to permit the boost output." extensive use of fertilizer. Fortunately, India, Argentina, Brazil, and the :,;o- alternatives exist for many of these coun- viet Union, on the other hand. all have a tries. which may never develop a fossil- large potential to raise yields. In India, fuel-based agriculture. While these will where grain yield per hectare is less than not lead to the dramatic gains in yield of half that in China, a combination of in- the Green Revolution technologies, they centive prices, investment in irrigation, can boost production markedly among and the use of more fertilizer should subsistence farmers. where the need is greatly boost output in the years ahead. greatest. In many tropical and subtropi- At present, India's farmers use less than cal regions. agroforestry (the incorpora- half as much fertilizer per hectare as do tion of trees and field crops into a single their Chinese and U.S. counterparts.36 farming system) is proving to be highly Policy adjustments could also spur productive. (See Cltapter 2.) The trees output in Argentina, which still taxes can provide food. forage, fuel, organic food exports. thus discouraging farmers matter in the form of leaf drop, and, if by reducing the prices they receive to they are nitrogen-fixing, nitrogen for the levels well below those of the world mar- crops grown in the immediate vicinity.40 ket.37 One type of agroforestry involves a Brazil, too, has a large unrealized po- technique known as alley cropping. in tential, one that may reside as much in which strips of fast-growing leguminous land reform as in expanding the cul- trees are alternated with rows of food tivated area. In few countries is landown- crops, making it possible to stastainably ership as concentrated as inBrazil, cultivate sonte soils that otherwise would where 70 percent of rural households quickly deteriorate once plowed. The are essentially landless. World Bank leguminous trees provide nitrogen and, studies in several countries demonstrate through their leaf drop, organic material that farmers with small holdings pro- to nourish the soil; the alternate strips duce more per hectare than those with also control soil erosion.41 large holdings. In part this is because %There labor is abundant relative to

200 (186) Mate of the ll'orld 1989 land, labor-intensive agricultural tech- a decade ago, U.S. Assistant Secretary of niques such as multiple cropping (grow- Agriculture Rupert Cutler observed that ing more than one crop per year) and ''asphalt is the land's last crop." Once intercropping (simultaneously planting productive cropland is lost to suburban more than one crop on a piece of land) development, shopping malls, or roads, can make a big difference, So can the it is difficult to restore it to food produc- composting of organic wastes, including tion.44 straw, livestock manure, and leaves. In A few countries, such as Japan, have densely populated parts of Africa and carefully crafted programs designed to Asia, the stall feeding of livestock, also protect cropland. In 1968, Japan adop- labor-intensive, both helps control land ted a comprehensive zoning plan that degradation from random grazing and put all land in one of three categories concentrates livestock manure, making industrial, :agricultural, or otherand composting easier.42 made itillegal to build on cropland. As population pressures build, land Paced with acute land pressures, Japan can be larmed more intensively using confronted the issue early and in doing such techniques as biointensive garden- so established an approach to cropland ing. This has figured prominently in el- preservation that is simple. effective, and forts to expand production of vegetables easily adapted to conditions in other to supplement cereals and tubers on the countries.45 Philippine island of Negros. The tech- National success stories in the effort to nique, involvinghand-tillage of the conserve topsoil, are few. Among the seedbed to one foot or more in depth. major food-producing countries,the relies on local materials to improve and United States is the only one systemati- maintain soil fertility. Among the local cally reducing excessive soil erosion. Its inputs used in these highly productive Conservation Reserve Program both en- plots are compost manure, wood ash, courages conversion of highly erodible bonemeal. leucaena leaves (from a flea- cropland to grassland or woodland and growingnitrogen-fixingtree).and penalizes larmers who do not manage crushed eggshells. Like the high-yield- their soil responsibly by denying them ing ricer that originated in the Philip- the benefits from farm programs. In pines, this technology has a potentially 1987. the program's second year, U.S. broad application in other countries.'" soil losses were reduced by 460 million ions, the greatest year-to-year reduction on record for any country.46 With cropland becoming scarce, In a world where fresh water is becom- future food security depends on ing more scarce. future growth in irrigation may depend on greater investments safeguarding it from conversion to in the efficiency a water Use. Stopping nonfarm uses and from erosion. leakagefromirrigationcanalsand ditches and abandoning the use of avastelid irrigation technologies present One oldie keys to raising output on a obvious opportunities. Israel. with its sustainable basis is protecting the re- underground drip system and other ad- source base. With cropland becoming vanced irrigation technologies, has ex- scarce, future food security depends on panded its irrigated area by using availa- safeguarding it both from conversion to ble water supplies more carefully. In nonfarm uses ancl from the erosion that many countries, the key to such gains is reduces its inherent productivity. Nearly the elimination of water subsidies, which

201 Oullining a Global Aclims Ha(' (187) actually encourage the inefficient use of increase the frequency of reduced har- irrigation water.47 vests. (See Chapter 1.) For example, the Early internationalagriculturalre- three drought-reduced U.S. harvests in search efforts concentrated heavily on the eighties could increase to four or five raising yields of wheat and rice. the in the nineties and even more thereafter. world's principal staple foods. In recent With much of the 20 million hectares of years, the Consultative Group on Inter- cropland idled under US. supply' man- national Agricultural Research --a net- agement programs scheduled to return work of 13 ably staffed agricultural re- to production in 1989, the need to estab- search centers, all but one in the Third lish a more formal set of guidelines for Worldhas shifted its attention to rais- managing world grainreserveswill ing output of such minor staples as mil- become increasingly urgent. let, chickpeas, and cassava, crops pro- If world food supplies tighten in the ducedbylow-income, subsistence years ahead, the distribution of available farmers. Although a far more den tand- supplies will bec :ne even more impor- ing undertaking, this research eflbrt is tant than when the world was plagued responsive to the needs of a large group with surpluses. High on the list of ques- of farmers, many of whom do not have tions will be how much of the world's access to lertilizer.48 grain supply can be fed to livestock. At In a warmer world. where fresh water present. roughly 500 million tons of an is becoming scarce, scientists can help annual harvest of usually 1.6 billion tons push back the physical frontiers of crop- is consumed this way." ping by developing varieties that arc If the U.S. cropland now set aside more drought-resistant,salt-tolerant, under the supply management programs and early-maturing. The payoff on the were returned to production. the (nth- first two could be particularly high. It is remaining major food reserve to fail in this area that biotechnology may be back on if carrvover stocks of grain are helpful in speeding up the plant breed- depleted would be the grain consumed ing process. by livestock. When grain prices rise Events of the last two years suggest sharply, as they did in 1973, higher meat that the time also has come to rethink prices and the resulting drop in con- international grain reserve policies. Two sumer demand force a reduction in the or more consecutive drought-reduced amount of grain fed to livestock. Tragi- harvests could easily wipe out a normal cally, by the time grain prices actually level of reserves. Had there not been a affect affluent consumers' consumption record amount of grain in storage at the of meat. milk, and eggs. the world's beginning of the 1987 crop year. back- poorest may not be getting enough grain to-back declines in the world grain har- to survive.1 vests since then would by now have cre- The relative efficiency of converting ated a world food etnergency. As itis, grain to various types of animal protein world grain prices in late 1988 had risen also affects the world grain supply-and- by hall since late 1987.49 demand balance. The least efficient live- Ensuring an adequate level of grain stock product is beef produced in feedstocks requires taking into account not lots,whereittakesroughly seven onlyyear-to-yearvariationsinthe pounds of grain to produce a pound of weather but the uncertain effects of ris- meat. The grain used in producing a ing temperatures as well. Global warm- quarter-pound hamburger could feed a ing will deepen the uncertainty sur- person in a low-income country for two rounding each year's crop and probably days. The production of broilers. much

202 (188) State of the World 1989 moreefficientthanbeef',requires America, average food consumption is roughly two pounds of grain per pound falling and living conditions are deteri- of meat. Thus, shifts from beef to poul- orating. In many of these countries, the try, already under way in some societies restoration of economic and social prog- for health reasons, help stretch the ress now depends on quickly reducing world supply of grain,52 population growth,54 Population stabilization is the only acceptable goal in a world where growth in Shifts from beef to poultry, under human numbers is leading to a life- way in some societies for health threatening deterioration of environmental systems. In 13 countries, home reasons, help stretch the world sup. to some 266 million people, birth rates ply of grain. have already fallen to the point where births and deaths are in balance. Except for Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Perhaps the principal conclusion in Hungary, all are in Western Europe. this year's analysis of the world lbod They range from tiny Luxembourg to prospect is that future food security may three of the four largest countries in lie more in the hands of family planners WesternEuropeItaly,theUnited than farmers. Agricultural policymakers Kingdom, and West Germany.55 and farmers acting alone may not be able Balancing birth and death rates was to ensure adequate food supplies in the not an explicit goal in any of these coun- years ahead. That is needed is a major tries. Fertility declined as economic and assist of the sort that China's family social conditions improved. As incomes planning ministry has provided that rose and employment opportunities for country's farmers over thelasttwo women expanded, couples chose to have decades, a lift that, when combined with fewer children. The wide availability of economic reforms in agriculture, helped family planning services and liberal raise food output per person by nearly abortion laws provided the means for half between 1976 and 1984.53 than to do so. The contrasting prospects of these countries and those where populations are projected to double, triple, or quadruple (see Table 10-2) is alarming. The STABILIZING POPULATION experience of recent years indicates that rapid population growth and social M the annual meeting in Berlin in Sep- progress are not compatible over the tember 1988, World Bank President long term. Countries either make the Barber Conable urged developing coun- shift to smaller families, as China has tries to "renew and expand efforts to done, or their life-support systems begin limit population growth," saying that to break down. as is occurring in many rapid population increase was contribut- African countries. Given the conditions ing to persistent and widespread pov- of these systems and the trends in per erty, which he described as a "moral out- capita kod production and income, rage." Conable's comments reflected many countries may have delayed too growing frustration within the Bank over long in implementing effective family the inability of many of its member coun- planning policies. They may now face a tries to raise living standards. In most choice: adopt a one-child family goal or countries in Africa. and several in Latin accept a decline in living standards. It is

21)3 Outlining a Global Action Plan (189)

Table 10.2. Projected Population Size at RA:Per Stabilization and Increase Over Current Thousand ao Level, Selected Countries Sources. Population Reference Bureau. Projected United Nations Popt.lation Woo* Stationary 1988 State Country Populationis ReachedRatio (million) (million) Kenya 23 121 5.3

Uganda 16 89 5.1 . Tanzania 24 123 5.1 1948 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Nigeria 112 599 4.7 Figure UM, Crude Birth and Death Rates Ethiopia 48 205 4.3 in Japan, t948.88

Zaire 33 142 4.3 Japan and China. (Sec Figures 10-1 and Sudan 24 101 .1.2 19-2,) In effect. each of thesecountries Ghana 14 58 4.1 halved its rate of population growth Pakistan 107 423 4.0 within a matter of years.56 Syria 11 42 3.8 Following the loss of its wartime em- pire. Japan was faced with the reality of Algeria 24 81 3.4 living largely on the resources within its Bolivia 7 24 3.4 own national borders. Living conditions Iran 52 169 3.2 deteriorated, leading many Japanese Bangladesh 109 342 3.1 couples to want smaller families, This in South Africa 35 90 2.6 turn prompted public discussion about population control, 'Fire Japanese gov- Egypt 53 132 2.5 ernment responded by legalizing abor- Peru 21 48 9.3 tion in 1948 and creating a national fam- Philippines 63 137 2.2 ilyplanning programtoprovide Mexico 83 187 9.2 contraceptive information and counsel- India 817 1,698 2.1 ing, The result was a drop in fertility SOURCE: World Bank,It Development Report "unprecedented in the annals of world 1988(NeYork: Oxford University Press, 1988). demography." Between 1949and 1956, Japan cut its population growth rate hard to imagine anything more dillicult from just under2.2percent to scarcely 1 for a society than striving for acceptance percent. Remarkably. Japan made this of a one-child family goal except suffer- demographic advance before the advent ing the consequences of failing to do so. of modern contraceptives, such as the At this point, the only socially respon- pill and the intrauterine device.57 sible step for the United Nations, the Two decades later, the Chinese gov- World Bank, and the international de- ernment also concluded that its fast-fall- velopmem community is to call for a ing population/land ratio was threaten- sharp reduction in the world growth ing its future economic progress. This rate, one patterned after the rapid de- ledto a decision to lower its birth rate. clines in fertility that occurred in both Between 1970 and 1976, China's popu-

2 0 4 Slate of the World 1989 thousand, this would cut the rate of world population growth in half, dropping it below 1 percent per year. (See Figure 10-1)59 Much of this decline would have to occur. of course, where population growthismost rapidAfrica, Latin America, and the Indian subcontinent. Industrial countries, such as the United States, the Soviet Union, and Japan, where population growth is now well below 1 percent per year, can easily follow the industrial societies of Western ' 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Europe to zero population growth 69 Figure 10.2. Crude Birth and Death Rates Countries that have made the shift to in Chios, 194947 small families typically have four things in common: an active national popula- lation growth rate dropped from 2.6 per- tion education program, widely available cent per year to 1.3 percent. Although family planning services, incentives for starting from a slightly higher point than small families (and in some cases, disin- Japan. it nonetheless cut its growth rate centives for large ones), and widespread in h al f.55 improvements in economic and social These family planning breakthroughs conditions.61 in Japan and China are indicative of what The starting point for an effective na- nations can do if they are serious about tional population education program is a slowing population growth. Countries careful look into the future, a set of alter- that now want to reduce their birth rate native projections that relate population can draw upon the experience of these growth to environmental support sys- two pioneers. And they have the advan- tems and economic trends. The model tage of a wider range of modern contra- for this continues to be the projections ceptive technologies. undertaken in China in the mid-seven- Given the experience of Japan and China, a global effort to cut world popu- Rate Per lation growth in half by the year 2000 Thousand does not seem out of the question. The Sources: United Nations, birth rate for the world of 28 per thou- Woridwatth sand population in 1988 is lower than the 33 per thousand that prevailed in Japan and China when they launched their fertility reduction campaigns. The 1988 world death rate is 10, midway between the 12 in Japan and the 8 in China when their efforts began. If national gov- 10- ...... ernments become serious, it is possible to lower the global birth rate of 28 to 19 1 by the end of the century, a decline of 1950 1960 1970 1980 199019 2000 one third. Assuming that the death rate Figure 10-3. World Binh and Death Room for the world remains at roughly 10 per 195048, With Projected Goal for 2000

205 Outlining a Global .lotion Plan (191) ties as part of the post-Mao reassess- Societies that have quickly reduced ment. One of the questions asked was. family size have often relied heavily on What will the future be like if each cou- a combination of incentives for small ple has two children? Under this as- families or disincentives for large ones. sumption, the country would have added Countries such as China, Singapore, some 700 million people, roughly an- and South Korea have typically offered other India, to its population. When re- free health rare and in sonic cases free lated to the future availability of soil, education through secondary school if water, forest, energy resources, and couples agree to have only the one jobs, it became clear that a two-child child or two children that circumstances family would lead to a decline in living call for. This approach is appealing be- standards. China's leaders realized that cause the free health care helps assure only a one-child family was compatible children's survival and the free educa- with the goals and aspirations of the Chi- tion helps enhance their earning power, nese people,62 thus increasing the long-term financial This information was then used in security of parents in societies where public discussions and debates, all the people depend on their children in old way down to the village level. People age." were involved in considering whether to accept two or more children per family and a decline in living conditions or to In developing countries, many move quickly to a one-child family pro- women who wish to limit family gram and a more promising future. size do not have access to family However difficultthe choice, China opted for thelatter, enablingitto planning services. achieve levels of infant mortality and life expectancy that approach those of affluent industrial societies.63 Any meaningful effort to slow popula- Undertaking these studies is an area in tion growth quickly will thus depend on which international development agen- heavy additional investments in the pro- cies can be of major assistance. The key vision of family planning services, im- to meaningful projections is the integra- provements in education and health, and tion of national demographic, economic, financial incentives that encourage cou- and ecological trends. Only when the ples to have smaller families. Although three are combined can a useful view of such a broad-based effort could easily the future be achieved. Only then do the involve additional expenditures of $30 choices become clear. billion per year, it can be viewed by in- Another step with a potentially high dustrial societies, who would help pro- payoffis the provision of family planning vide financing, as a down payment on a services to those not yet reached by ex- sustainable future, an effort to protect isting service networks. Recent surveys the habitability of the planet.66 in developing countries indicate that The formulation of population poll- many women who wish to limit family des and the design of family planning size do not have access to family plan- programs are both handicapped by a ning services. Few efforts to improve the lack of information, Although changes in human condition will pay a higher return birth rates may have a far greater effect on investment than filling this family on future economic and social trends in planning gap.64 developing countries than any other 216 (192) Slate of the World 1989 economic trends will, few such countries 1988, biologist Thomas Lovejoy, Assist- regularly collect and publish these data. ant Secretary for External Affairs of the The U.N.Monthly Bulletin ofStatistics nor- Smithsonian Institution. stated: "I am inally includes data on birth and death_ utterly convinced that most of the great rates for only 34 countries. nearly all in- environmental struggles will be either dustrial ones. won or lost in the 1990s. And that by the If the United Nations could launch a next century it will be too late." Lovejoy monthly report on population and popu- is not alone. Thousands of other scien- lation-related issues and indicators,it tists around the world who are tracking would help fill an information gap that changes in the planet's health share his handicaps many family planners. Such a sense of urgency.67 report could include information on na- Viewing the world from a very differ- tional goals to reduce family size and ent vantage point. but reaching a similar progress in extending family planning conclusion, was Eduard Shevardnadze. services. A monthly population report foreign minister of the Soviet Union. He could also provide national analyses of observed in an address to the U.N. Gen- eral Assembly in September. thatall the characteristics of successful family the environmental disasters of the cur- planning efforts, material on the kinds of rent year have placed in the forefront the contraceptives that work best under vari- task of pooling and coordinating efforts ous conditions, and country-by-country in developing a global strategy for the progress in restoring a balance between rational management of the environ- births and deaths. ment." He then went on to emphasize At the national level, it now seems rea- the lack of time, saying that "we have too sonable to expect governments to set little of it, and problems are piling up family planning goals that will lead to faster than they are solved."68 improved living conditions. Some coun- The 1989 annual report of the United tries may find it necessary to press for Nations Children's Fund gets to the one child per couple until the momen- heart of what is at stake: "For almost tum of their population growthis nine hundred million people. approxi- checked. But for the world as a whole, mately one sixth of mankind, the march two children may now be a more realistic of human progress has now become a goal. Accumulating evidence suggests retreat."69 that this is the only population policy By many measures, time is running that is consistent with restoring a world- out. Circumstances call for major shifts wide improvement in living conditions. on several fronts simultaneously to re- It is time for international leaders, such store the equilibria that make the planet as the Secretary General of the United habitable: a global balance between Nations and the President of the World births and deaths, carbon emissions and Bank, to urge adoption of such a goal by carbon fixation, soil erosion and soil for- all governments. mation, tree cutting and tree planting. It is now clear that we are moving into a new age, for the current situation simply will not prevail for much longer. The outlines of this new age will be defined ATURNAROUND DECADE by choices made in the years immediately ahead. We will either mobilize to In an address before the American Insti- reestablish a stable relationship with the tute of Biological Sciences in August earth's natural support systems or con-

20 7 Outlining a Global Action Plan (193) tinue down the path of environmental are, however, important differences. De- deterioration. spite its name, World War II scarcely If societies successfully mobilize for touched parts of the world. The dangers change, the new age will be one in which were clear and immediate for those in- forest. cover is expanding, hunger is di- volved, and they knew the military effort minishing, and life expectancy is every- was temporary. This made the sacrifices where increasing. This age will see the and adjustments easier to bear. evolution of transportation systems that rely heavily on bicycles and mass transit, as well as on more fuel-efficient automo- We are moving into a new age, for biles. It will be an age in which most the current situation simply will residential hot water comes from roof- top solar collectors, more windmills and not prevail for much longer. fewer polluting power plants dot the landscape, and Third World villages are electrified by photovoltaic solar cells. It By contrast, the battle to protect the will be an age in which population earth's life-support systems lacks defini- growth slows because birth rates fall, not tion in the minds of many. The danger is because death rates rise. It will, by neces- not so clear and present.Climate sity, be a more equitable world, and, by change, ozone depletion, population consequence, a more peaceful world. growth, and soil erosion are gradual If instead societies persist with busi- processes, and therefore difficult to mo- ness as usual, letting current trends con- bilizeagainst. And the adjustments tinue, the new age will look very differ- needed are permanent, for they are the ent. Climate change willaccelerate, prerequisites for long-term progress. causing untold economic disruption. Given these characteristics, a timely re- Summertime heat waves will bring more sponse to environmental threats de- water shortages, power blackouts, and pends less on emotion and more on rea- crop failures. The hunger and malnutri- son--which may explain the growing tion that has engulfed much of Africa gap between what needs to be done to and parts of Latin America during the secure the future and what is being eighties will spread. In more countries, done. infant mortality will rise and life expect- Social change on the scale needed will ancy will fall, as is already happening in take society into uncharted territory. It Ghana, Madagascar, and Peru. As food will require converting a global economy riots and famine become more common- now using 6 percent of its resources for place, and as the chasm between the means of destruction into one devoted haves and have-nots widens, social and to the reconstruction of the planet. In political institutions will begin to un- essence, the task is to organize and sus- ravel. At some point, a mounting preoc- tain a survival economy much the way cupation with the unstable present will countries today maintain permanent begin to obliterate hopes for reclaiming standing armies and strategic weapons the future.70 in the hope of deterring war. Rather There is little precedent for the scale than sitting idle, however. the invest- of action needed over the next decade. ments in our planet's future will be used In recent history, the only time when productivelyfor planting trees, devel- change even remotely approached that oping renewable energy sources, and ex- needed now was in the early forties, panding food production, among other when countries mobilized for war. There vital tasks.71

2(1g (194) Stare of the World 1989 Launching and carrying through on cdy problems directly touching their the initiatives needed to safeguard the lives. whether it be planting trees in a planet will place extraordinary demands Third World village or oppnsing the sit- on political leaders and a high premium ing of a toxic waste dump in a U.S. com- on imaginative leadership. As shown by munity. The challenge now is for other the progress of air pollution control in groups to get involved. Collectively, Europe or protection of the ozone layer churches, civic groups, and professional globally, action by just a few countries sncietics represent an enormous poten- can inspire many others to join in. When tial for planetary reclamation. Rotary In- the prime ministers of Canada and Nor- ternational, Girl Scouts, the Interna- way publicly embraced the goal of reduc- tionalAssociation ofAgricultural ing carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per- Economists, the Lutheran Church, the centby2005.theyhelpedmove International Society of Tropical Forest- concerns about climate change from re- ers, the American Medical Association, search institutes into legislatures, where and the International Jaycees are but a they now need to bc.72 few of the thousands of groups that could play a part. Whether the nineties becomes a turn- Ultimately, responsibility for the fu- around decade will also depend heavily ture rests with individuals. Our values, on the response of scientists and the choices, and behaviors shape social and communications media, for both play political change. Unless more of us join key roles in broad-based public educa- the effort, there is little hope of halting tion. As important as scientists' findings the planet's deterioration. in their laboratories will be their ability By the end of the next decade, the die and willingness to translate these find- will pretty well be cast. As the world en- ings into terms understandable by non- ters the twenty-first century, the commu- scientists. Similarly. the media will better nity of nations either will have rallied serve the public's need for information and turned back the threatening trends, when it begins reporting, for example, or environmental deterioration and so- that deforestation rates are as important cial disintegration will be feeding on an indicator of societal health as infla- each other. tion rates arc. The ultimate rationale for a massive Up until now, environmental organi- socialmobilizationto safeguard the sations. both national and local. have earth is summed up in a bit of graffiti provided the impetus for efforts to re- painted on a bridge in Rock Creek Park store and protect the planet. Numerous in Washington. D.C.Itsays. "Good citizen& groups have organized to rem- planets are hard to find."

2n9 Notes

Chapter 1. A World at Risk 26. 1988; David S. Wilson, "U.S. Forest Fires Worst Since 1919," New York Times. Septem- 1. James E. Hansen, Director. NASA God- ber 1. 1988: Sam Howe Verhovek, **The dard Institutefor Space Studies. "The Long Heat Also Polluted the Air," New York Greenhouse Effect:Impacts on Current Global Temperature and Regional Heat Times. August 26. 1988. Waves," Testimony before the Committee 7. Karen DeYoung. "European Seal Herd on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Sen- Perishing," Washington Post, August 7, 1988: ate, June 23, 1988. "Italy Promises Remedial Steps Against Eu- 2. Edward A. Gargan, "Flash Floods and trophication in Adriatic," International Envi- ronment Reporter, September 14, 1988; David Drought Ravage China," New York Times, Au- gust3,1988: NoelFletcher,"China's Remnick, "Foul Air, Water Problems Wake Drought Boosting Food-Import Needs," Soviets to Ecology," Washington Post. July 31, Journal of Commerce, July 25, 1988; "Killing 1988; James Brooke, "African Nations Bar- Heat Wave Hits South China," Beijing Review. ring Toxic Waste," New York Times, Septem- July 25-31, 1988; numerous articles on the ber 25, 1988; Arshad Mahmud, "In Ban- drought in China Daily, Summer 1988. gladesh, Too Much Water and Not Enough," New York Times, September 18, 1988. 3. National Aeronautics and Space Ad- ministration, "Executive Summary of the 8. Christopher Flavin, Reassessing Nuclear Ozone Trends Panel," Washington, D.C., Power: The Fallout From Chernobyl. Worldwatch March 15, 1988. Paper 75 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- stitute, March 1987). 4. RichardM.Weintraub,"Flooding Worsens in Bangladesh," 1Vashingion Post, 9. Christopher Flavin, "The Case Against September 5, 1988. RevivingNuclear Power,"World Watch (Washington, D.C.), July/August 1988; Bill S. Alberto W. Setzer et al., "Relathrio de Keller, "Public Mistrust Curbs Soviet Nu- Atividades do Projeto IBDF-INPE 'SEQE' clear Power Efforts," New York Times, Octo- Ano 1987," Institute de Pesquisas Espaciais, ber 13, 1988. Sio Jose dos Campos, Brazil, May 1988: Rob- erti. McNeal, Testimony before the Commit- 10. Sandra Postel, Air Pollution. Acid Rain, tee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. and the Future of Forests, Worldwatch Paper 58 Senate, September 20, 1988. (Washington. D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, 6. David C. Anderson, "The Medical March 1984). Trash That's on the Beach Is Only the Start," 11. Sandra Postel, "Protecting Forests WashingtonPost, August7,1988: Keith from Air Pollution and Acid Rain," in Lester Schneider, "Rain Revives Crops but Experts R. Brown et al., State of the World 1985 (New say Drought Persists," New York Times, July York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1985); Peter H.

210 (196) ,Votes (Chapter I) Sand, "Air Pollution in Europe: International Group Chief. Carbon Cycle Group, National Policy Responses," Environment, December Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1987. Boulder, Colo., private communication, Oc- 12. Sand, "Air Pollution in Europe." tober 28, 1988; Eric T. Sundquist, "Ice Core Links CO2 to Climate," Nature. October 1, 13. Catherine Fitzpatrick and Janet 1987. Fleischman. From Below: independent Peace and 22. V. Ramanathan ctal., "Trace Gas Environmental Movements in Eastern Europe and the ISSR (New York: Helsinki Watch Com- Trends and Their Potential Role in Climate ntince, 1987). Change,"Jountal of Geophysical Research, June 20. 1985; F. Sherwood Rowland. "Chloro- 14. Remnick, "Foul Air. Water Problems fluorocarbons, Stratospheric Ozone, and the Wake Soviets to Ecology"; Barbara Jancar, Antarctic 'Ozone Hole'," Enitironinenta/ Con- "The Politics of Pollution in the Soviet Union s..rvation. Summer 1988; Irving R. Mintzer, and Eastern Europe: Two Years after Cher- Senior Associate, World Resources Institute, nobyl," Testimony before Commission on Testimony before Subcommittee on Energy Security and Cooperation in Europe, U.S. and Power, Committee on Energy and Com- Congress, April 26, 1988; Fitzpatrick and merce. U.S. House of Representatives. Sep- Fleischman, From Below. tember 22, 1988. 15. Green Party, "The Green Party of 23. Worldwatchestimatefrom Gregg Sweden," Stockholm, 1988. Marland, Environmental Science 1Y. _sion, I6. Lynn White. r., "The Historical Roots Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 0.4 Ridge, of Our Ecologic Crisis." Science. March 10, Tenn unpublished printout and private 1067. communication, September 9,1988; the lower estimated range for carbon addition 17. Jeremy Bucher, "lite Opening Shot from deforestation is from R.P. Detwiler and of the Second Ecological Revolution." Chi- Charles AS Hall, "Tropical Forests and the cago Tribune, August 16, 1988. Global Carbon Cycle," &Imre. January I, 18. Elizabeth kenif, "The Re-greening of 1988; the higher one is from R.A. Houghton Vietnam," .Vew Scientist. June 23, 1988. et al., "The Flux of Carbon from Terrestrial Ecosystems to the Atmosphere in 1980 Due i9. "Conference Statement," The Chang- to Changes in Land Use Geographic Distri- ing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Se- bution of the Global Flux," Telha, February/ curity, Toronto, June 27-30, 1988; "Global April 1987; George M. Woodwell, "How Environmental Protection Act of 1988," S. Does the World Work?" presented to World 2666, U.S. Senate, introduced by Senator Wildlife Fund (WWF) Conference on Conse- Robert Stafford, uly 28, 1988; "National En- quences of the Greenhouse Effect for Biolog- ergy Policy Act of 1988," S. 2667, U.S. Sen- ical Diversity, Washington, D.C., October ate, introduced by Senator Timothy Wirth. 4-6, 1988 (hereinafter cited as WWF Confer- July 28, 1988; "Global Warming Prevention ence); fossil fuel projections are Worldwatch Act of 1988," H.R. 5460, U.S. House of Rep- Institute estimates. resentatives, introduced by Representative Claudine Schneider, October 5, 1988. 24. Philip D. Jones et al "Evidence for Global Warming in the Past Decade," Nature. 20. Hansen, "The Greenhouse Effect." April 28, 1988; James E. Hansen et al "Glo- 21. World Resources institute/Interna- bal Climate Changes as Forecast by the GISS tional institute for Environment and Devel- 3-D Model," Journal of Geophysical Research, opment, World Resources Report 1988/1989 August 20, 1988: data for 1988 are prelimi- (New York: Basic Books, 1988); Pieter Tans. nary, based on recordings for the first nine 2 1 1

Notes (chapter 1) (197) months of the year. according to James E. Sea Level Rise." presented to the First North Hansen, private communication. October 26, American Conference on Preparing for Cli- 1988. mate Change: A Coiperative Approach, 25. Hansen. "The Greenhouse Effect." Washington. D.C., October 27-29. 1987. 26. U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 32. Tom Goemans and Pier Vellinga. Changing Climate,Report of the Carbon Diox- "Low Countries and High Seas," presented ide Assessment Committee (Washington, to the First North American Conference on D.C.: National Academy Press. 1983); James Preparing for Climate Change: A Coopera- E. Hansen. "Prediction of Near-Term Cli- tive Approach, Washington. D.C., October mate Evolution: What Can We Tell Decision- 27-29, 1987. Makers Now?" Testimony before Committee 33. John D. Milliman et al.. "Environmen- on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Sen- tal and Economic Impact of Rising Sea Level ate. November 9, 1987; John W. Firor, Direc- and Subsiding Deltas: The Nile and Bengal tor. Advanced Study Program. National Cen- Examples." Woods Hole Oceanographic In- terfor Atmospheric Research, Boulder, stitution. Woods Hole. Mass., unpublished, Colo., Testimony before Subcommittee on 1988. Energy and Power. Committee on Energy and Commerce. U.S. House of Representa- 34. J. Christopher Walker et al.. "Impact tives. July 7, 1988. of Global Climate Change on Urban Infra- structure"(draft), The UrbanInstitute, 27. Hansen, "The Greenhouse Effect": Washington, D.C., July 1988. Syukuro Manabe, Geophysical Fluid Dynam- ics Laboratory. National Oceanic and Atmo- 35. Ibid. spheric Administration, Princeton, NJ-Testi- 36. Debora MacKenzie, "Winds of mony before Co mmittee on Energyand Natur- Change May Be Harbingers of Drought." al Resources. U.S. Senate, November 9. 1987. New Scientist.August 27,1987:Dennis 28. World Climate Programme.Developing Wamsted. "Hyper-HurricanesA New Policies for Responding to Climate Change(Ge- Threat from the Greenhouse Effect?"Energy neva: World Meteorological Organization, Daily, September 15. 1988. 1988): Firor, Testimony. 37. U.N. World Food Council (WFC). 29. Woodwell, "How Does the World "The Global State of Hunger and Malnutri- Work?": Margaret B. Davis and Catherine tion: 1988 Report." 14th Ministerial Session. Zabinski, University of Minnesota, "Rates of Nicosia. Cyprus. March 24, 1988. Dispersal of North American Trees: Implica- 38. U.S. Department ofAgriculture tions for Response to Climatic Warming," (USDA). Economic Research Service (ERS). presented to WWF Conference. World Groin Harvested Area, Production, and 30. W.D. Billings. Duke University, "Ef- Yield1950-87 (unpublished printout)(Wash- fects of Predicted Climatic Warming on Arc- ington. D.G.: 1988): USDA. Foreign Agricul- tic Tundra Ecosystems on the Alaskan North tural Service (FAS),World Grain Situation and Slope," and Daniel B. Botkin and Robert A. Outlook.Washington. D.C.. October 1988. Nisbet, University of California. Santa Bar- 30, USDA, ERS, Work/Grain 1950-87: bara, "Projecting the Effects of Climate 1988 per capita grain production estimate Change on Biological Diversity in Forests." derived from production estimates in USDA, both presented to WWF Conference. FAS,World Grain Situation,and from popula- 31, James G. Titus, U.S. Environmental tion projections in Francis Urban and Philip Protection Agency. "Causes and Effects of Rose,World Population by Country and Region.

2.12 (198) .Voles (Chapter 14- 1950-86, and Projections to 2050 (Washington, 51. S. Manabe ar3 R.T. Wetherald, "Re- D.C.: USDA. ERS. 1988). duction in &mime,. Soil Wetness Induced by 40. USDA. ERS. World Grain 1950 -87: an Increase in htinospheric Carbon Diox- ide." Science. May 2. 1986; Hansen et al., "Farmers Turn Down the Irrigation Tap." "Global Climatv Changes." Farm line. August 1988: Frederick W. Crook, Agricultural Statistics of the People's Republic of 52. USDA, FAS. World GrainSituation: China, 1949-86 (Washington. D.C.: USDA. R.H. Shaw, "Estimates of Yield Reductions ERS, 1988). in Corn Caused by Water and Temperature Stress." in C. D. Raper and P.J. Kramer, eds.. 41. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. Crop Reactions to Water and Temperature Stresses 42. World Bank, Report of the Thsk Force on in Humid. Temperate Climates (Boulder Colo.: Food Security in .Africa (Washington, D.C.: Westview Press. 1983); R. F. Dale. "Temper- 1988). ature Perturbations in the Midwestern and Southeastern United States Important for 43. Ibid. Corn Production." in ibid. 44. Population Reference Bureau,1988 53. Linda 0. Mcarns et al.. "Extreme World Population Data Sheet(Washington, HighTemperature Events: Changes in Their D.C.: 1988): USDA. ERS, World Grain; Mi- Probabilities with Changes in Mean Temper- chael Griffin, "Harsh Times for Madagascar's ature,"JournalofClimateandApplied Growing Numbers," People (London), Vol. Meteorology. December 1984. 15, No. 2, 1988. 54. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87; 45. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organiza- USDA, FAS, World Grain Situation. tion, FAO Production Yearbook (Rome: various years); USDA, ERS. World Grain 1950-87; 55. USDA, ERS. World Grain 1950 -87: USDA. FAS, World Grain Situation. WFC. "Global State of Hunger and Malnutri- tion." 56. Hansen. "The Greenhouse Effect." 46. International Monetary Fund. hiterna- 57. USDA, FAS. World Wheat and Coarse tional Financial Statistics. Washington. D.C.. Grains Reference Tables (unpublished printout) various issues: World Bank, Task Force on Food (Washington. D.C.: August 1988); USDA. Security in Africa. FAS, World Rice; USDA. FAS. World Grain Sit- 'ration. 47. Cost of the wheat in a loaf of bread calculated using a wheat price of U.S.S3 per 58. Eduard A. Shevardnadze. Minister for bushel. Foreign Affairs of the USSR. Statement before theForty-third Session oftheU.N. Gener- 48. USDA, FAS, World Rice Reference Tables al Assembly. New York, September 27. 1988. (unpublished printout)(Washington, D.C.: July 1988). 59. William Hively, "Global Change," American Scientist, March/April 1988; June S. 49. USDA. FAS. World Grain Situation. Ewing,Staff Officer,National Research 50. Hansen. "The Greenhouse Effect": Council. Washington, D.C., private commu- Syukuro Manabe. "Climate Warming Due to nication...June 22. 1988: "The International Greenhouse Gases." Testimony before the Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and En- Towards a Plan for Action," Earth Quest. Uni- vironmental Oversight, Committee on Envi- versity Corporation for Atmospheric Re- ronment and Public Works, U.S. Senate. De- search, Boulder. Colo.. Summer 1988. cember 10. 1985; Hansen et al.. "Global 60. Denise Claveloux. "Tighter Control of Climate Changes." Waste Management. Disposal ofToxic Waste

2 : 3 Notes (chapter 1) (r991 Envisioned in Proposals Made by European Agreementand Beyond." Environmental Community Commission,"International Envi- Consemation.Winter 1987. ronment Reporter.August 10, 1988: "Tougher 66. Cogan.Stones in a Glass !louse;dark Small-Car Emissions Limits Being Sought By Crawford. "Landmark Ozone Treaty Nego- European Parliament,"International Environ- tiated,"Science.September 25, 1987; U.N. ment Reporter,October 12, 1988; "European Treaty Office, New York, various private Commission Considers Directive on Free- communications; Philip Shabecoff. "E.P.A. dom of Information on Environment."Inter- Chief Asks Total Ban on Ozone-Harming national Environment Reporter,October 12. Chemicals."New York Times,September 27, 1988: Steven Greenhouse, "Making Europe a 1988. Mighty Market,"New York Times.May 22, Developing 1988. 67. World Climate Programme. Policies; "ConferenceStatement,"The 61. U.N. EconomicCommission for Changing Atmosphere. Europe.ECE 1947-1987(New York: United 68. Toufiq A. Siddiqi, East-West Center, Nations,1987); Sand, "Air Pollution in Europe"; "12 Nations Agree to Cut Pollu- Honolulu, Hawaii. "A Comprehensive Law of the Atmosphere as a Framework for Ad- tion,"Washington Post.November 1, 1988. dressingCarbonDioxideandClimate 62. Richard Mott. "An Acid Rain Sum- Change Issues," presented to the Workshop mons from Europe."TheEnvironmental on Global Climate Change. Woods Hole, Forum.March/April 1988. Mass.. September 23. 1988: Brian Mulroney, Prime Minister of Canada, Speech at The 63. Information on signatories from U.N. Changing Atmosphere:Implicationsfor Office for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Global Security. Toronto. Canada, June 27- Sea, New York, private communication, Oc- 30, 1988: Kilaparti Ramakrishna. "Steps To- tober 11, 1988; Elisabeth Mann Borgese. ward an International Convention for Stabil- "The Law of the Sea,"Scientific American, izing the Greenhouse Gas Composition of March 1983; Department of Public Informa- :he Atmosphere" (draft), Woods Hole Re- tion, A Quiet Revolution: The ['Wird Nations Con- search Center, Woods Hole, Mass., Septem- vention on the Law of the Sea(New York: United ber 2. 1988. Nations. 1984). 69. Jane Rosen. "Suddenly. Everyone's 64. Clyde Sanger,Ordering the Oceans: The Talking About the Weather." TheInterdepen- Making of the Law of theSea (London: Zed dent.Fall 1988; Shevardnadze, Statement at Books Ltd.. 1986); Ann L. Hollick. "Manag- U.N. General Assembly. ing the Oceans,"The Wilson Quarterly,Sum- mer 1984: Karl Sullivan. "Overfishing and 70. Mulroney. Speech at The Changing the New Law of the Sea."OECD Observer. July Atmosphere; Ed H.T.NI. Nijpels, Minister of 1984: "United States Acceptance of MAR- Housing. Physical Planning and Environ- POL Annex Will Lead to Ban on Dumping ment,theNetherlands, Speechat'I be Changing Atmosphere: Plastics at Sea."International Environment Re- Implicationsfor Global Security. Toronto, Canada, une 27- porter.February 10, 1988; "Global Stop to 30, 1988: Gro Harlem Brundtland. Prime At-Sea Incineration Approved,"3Iuftilateral Minister of Norway, "Our Common Future-- - Environmental Outlook.October 13, 1988. A Climate for Change," Speech at The 65. Douglas G. Cogan,Stones in a Glass Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Glo- House: CFCs and Ozone Depletion(Washington, bal Security, Toronto, Canada. June 27-30, D.C.: Investor Responsibility Research Cen- 1988: Shevardnadze, Statement at U.N. Gen- ter, 1988): Mostafa K. Tolba, "The Ozone eral Assembly: Draft Summary of Workshop

2 4 (200) Notes (Chapters 1 and 2) on Global Climatic Change, Woods Hole Re- World 1986(New York: W.W. Norton & Co., search Center, Woods Hole, Mass.. Septem- 1986). ber 23. 1988. 5. Dregne,Desertification of Arid Lands. 71. Richard N. Gardner. "The Case for 6. Peter H. Freeman and J.K. Rennie, Practical Internationalism."Foreign Affairs. Spring 1988; John M. Goshko, "United Na- Desertification in the Sahel: Diagnosis and Propos- als for 11.:CN's Response(Gland, Switzerland: tions Finds Itself *Back in Fashion',"Washing- International Union for Conservation of Na- ton Post,September 25. 1988; George D. ture and Natural Resources, 1985). Moffett III, "Peacekeepers Win Peace Prize," Christian Science Monitor,September 30, 1988. 7. Dregne,Desertificationof And Lands; Wolf, "Managing Rangelands"; Jack A. Mab- 72. Paul Lewis, "Soviet Announces Shift butt. "A New Global Assessment of the Sta- on U.N. Staff Demand by U.S.."New York tus and Trends of Desertification."Environ- Times,June 4. 1988; Elaine Sciolino, **Rea- mental Conservation,Summer 1984. gan. in Switch. Says U.S. Will Pay Some Old U.N. Dues."New York Times,September 14, 8. Thomas M. Painter, "Bringing Land 1988; Steven Greenhouse, "Japan is Seeking Back In: Changing Strategies to Improve Ag- Larger Role in World's Financial System and ricultural Production in West African Sahel," Debt Crisis,"New York Times,September 27, in Peter D. Little et al., eds.,Lands at Risk in 1988;HilaryF.French, "Restoring the the Third World: Local Level Perspectives(Boul- U.N.,'* Il'orld!laid'(Washington, D.C.),der, Colo.: Westview Press, 1987); UNEP, July/August 1988. General Assessment of Progress. 73. Maurice F. Strong. "Beyond Foreign 9. D. Pimentel et al., "World Agriculture Aid-Towards a New World System," pre- and Soil Erosion,"BioScience,April 1987. sented to the International Development 10. The total is a modification of the esti- Conference, Washington, D.C., March 19, mate made by D.E. Walling, "Rainfall, Run- 1987. off and Erosion of the Land: A Global View." 74. Brundtland. "Our Common Future- in K.J. Gregory, ed.,Energetics of Physical Envi- A Climate for Change." ronment(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987). using a new figure for the Ganges- Brahmaputra system (as referenced in the Chapter 2. Halting Land Degradation next note). which increased the total from 19 billion tons to 203 billion. 1. Michel M. rerstraete, "DefiningDeser- tification:A Review,"Climatic Change,No. 9, 11. Sediment load and area of sediment 1986; H.E. Dregne,Desertification of Arid Lands fan from Ocean Drilling Program, news re- (New York: Harwood Academic Puhlishers, lease, Texas A&M University, College Sta- 1983). tion. September 4, 1987. 2. U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), 12. Degraded area of Loess Plateau from General Assessment of Progress in the Implementa- Men Qnmei, Vice Chief of Bureau of Middle tion of the Plan of eh-lion to Combat Desertification Reach of Huang He, Xian, Shaanxi Province, 1978-1984(Nairobi: 1984). private comr..-unication, June 9, 1988; average erosion rate from U.N. Food and Agri- 3. F. Kenneth Hare, "Recent Climatic Ex- culture Organization (FAO)/World Food perience in the Arid and Semi-arid Lands," Programme (WFP) projectreport, "Im- Desertification Control Bakal,No. 10, 1984, proved Land Use of the Loess Plateau, Mizhi 4. Edward C. Wolf, "Managing Range- County, Shaanxi Province," Rome, July 11, lands." in Lester R. Brown et al.,State of the 1984.

2 .1 5 Notes (Chapter 2) (2011 13. Sandra Postel.Conserving Water: 'The timate of Wastelands in India." Society for rntapped Alternative,Worldwatch Paper 67 Promotion of Wastelands Development. New (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute. Delhi, India. undated. September 1985). 22. Maria Elena Lopez. "The Politics of 14. Anupam Mishra. An Irrigation Proj- Lands at Risk in a Philippine Frontier," in ect That Has Reduced Farm Production," Little et al.,Lanett at Risk in the Third World. Centre for Science and Environment, New 23. ibid. Delhi. 1981. J 24. John Hanks, "SouthernAfrica's 15. UNEP,Central .Assessment of Progress. Abused Environment,"Earthwairli,No. 31. 16. Ibid.; areas affected from Sandra Pos- inPeople(London). Vol. 15, No. 2, 1988. tel,IS Rethinking ,Management in an Age of 25. Dhira Phantumvanit and Khunying Scatrity.Worldwatch Paper 62 (Washington. Suthawan Sathirathai. "Thailand: Degrada- D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute, December tion and Development in a Resource-Rich 1984); Celestine Bohlen, "Cotton Measures Land."Environment,January/February 1988. Fortunes in Soviet Turkmenistan.'Washing- ton Post,May 13, 1986; Philip P. Mick lin, 26. Annar Cassam, "Prospects for African "Desiccation of the Aral Sea: A Water Man- Development,"journal fiir Enhoicklungspobtik, agement Disaster in the Soviet Union,"Sci- Special Issue 1. 1987; Leopold P. Mureithi, ence,September 2, 1988. "Crisis and Recovery in African Agriailture: Priorities for Dialogue and Action,"Develop- 17. For an overview of deforestation ment: Seeds of Change.No. 2/3, 1987; see also trends and consequences, see Sandra Postel JodiL. Jacobson, "The ForgottenRe- and Lori Heise.Reforesting Me Earth.World- source,"World Iratch(Washington. D.C.), watch Paper 83 (Washington. D.C.: World- May/June 1988. watch Institute, April 1988); Brazil figure from Alberto W. Scuff et al.. "Relatorio de 27. World Commission on Environment Atividades do Projeto, IBDF-INPE 'SEQE'- and Development,Our Common Future(New Ano 1987," Institute de Pcsquisas Espaciais, York: Oxford University Press, 1987); sec SSo Jose dos Campos, Brazil, May 1988. also Piers Blaikie and Harold Brookfield, "Retrospect and Prospect," in Piers Blaikie 18. Jean Eugene Gorse and David R. and Harold Brookfield, eds.,Land Degrada- Steeds,DesertificationintheSahelian and tion and Society(New York: Methuen & Co., Sudanian Zones of West .Africa(Washington, 1987). D.C.: World Bank, 1987), 28. Postel and Heise,Reforesting the Earth; 19. Ibid. Lester R. Brown, "Sustaining World Agricul- 20. Population projections from Popula- ture," in Lester R. Brown et al..State of the tion Reference Bureau (PRB), 1988World World1987 (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., Population Data Sheet(Washington, D.C.: 1987). 1988). 29. S. Manabe and R.T. Wetherald. "Re- 21. Area of potentially productive land duction in Summer Soil Wetness Induced by from B.B. Vohra, "Neglect of Natural Re- an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Diox- source Management,"Alainstreoni,January ide,"Science,May 2. 1986: for a general dis- 16, 1988; National Land Use and Wastelands cussion of the impactsofclimate change on Development Council, "Strategies, Struc- agriculture, see Sandra Postel,Altering the tures, Policies-. National Wastelands Devel- Eank's Chemistry: .Assessing the Risks,World- opment Boa: d," New Delhi, February 6, watch Paper 71 (Washington. D.C.: World- 1986; D.R. Bhumbla and Arvind Khare, "Es- watch Institute. July 1986).

2.i 6 (202) Notes (Chapter 21 :30. Piers J. Sellers. "Modeling Effects of 38. Setzer et al.. "Matt-it) de Atividades Vegetation on Climate." in Robert E. Dick- cloProjeto. 1111)F-INPE 'SEQ.r." enson. ed., The Geophysiology of Ammonia (New York; John Wiley 8.: Sons, 1987); Hare, "Re- 39. G.P.Shrivastava,APS.University. cent Climatic Experience in the Arid and RFAVA, Madya Pradesh. India. private com- Semi-arid Lands." munication. JulyI,1988; Jayanta Ban- dyopadhyay, "Political Ecology of Drought 31. J. Shukla and Y. ,Mina. "Influence of and Water Scarcity: Need for an Ecological Lind-SurfaceEvapotranspiration onthe Water Resources Policy." &month. and Politi- Earth's Climate." Scienle, March 19. 1982. cal Weekly, December 12, 1987; see also J. 32. Sharon Nicholson. Florida State Uni- Bandyopadhyay and Vandana Shiva. versity. Tallahassee. private communication. "Drought, Development andDesertifica- June 13. 1985. as cited in Lester R. Brown tion," Economic and Political Weekly. August and Edward C. Wolf. Reverting Africa's Decline. 16, 1986. Worldwatch Paper 65 (Washington. DX.: Worldwatch Institute. une 1985): Sharon E. 40. Bandyopadhyay. "Political Ecology of Nicholson, "Sub-Saharan Rainfallinthe Drought and Water Scarcity." Years 1976-80: Evidence of Continued 41. Michael Mortimore. "Shifting Sands Drought," Monthly IPather Review, August and Human Sorrow: Social Response to 1983. Drought and Desertification." Desertifilation 33. Ann Henderson-Sellers. "Effects of Control Bulletin. No. 14. 1987. Change in Land Use on Climate in the Humid Tropics." in Dickenson. Geophysiology 42. Ibid. of Aina.zonia; Hare. "Recent Climatic Experi- 43. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Eco- ence in the Arid and Semi-arid Lands." nomic Research Service. Cropland, Water, and 34. Eneas Salad. "The Forest and the Hy- ConsmationSituationand OutlookReport, drologic Cycle." in Dickenson. Geophysiology Washington, D.C., September 1988; "Sixth of Ammonia; see also Eneas Salad and Peter B. CRP Signup Adds 3.4 Million Acres.".4gricul- %Pose. "Amazon Basin: A System in Equilib- turd Outlook. August 1988; for historical rium," Silence, July 13. 1984. background to the program. see also Lester 35. Salati, "The Forest and theHy- R. Brown. "Breakthrough on Soil Erosion." drologic Cycle"; Salati and Yost:, "Amazon World Watch (Washington. D.C.). May/June Basin." 1988. 36. Eneas Salad. Inter-American Develop- 44. Author's visit to China's loess Pla- ment Bank. Washington, D.C., private com- teau, June 1988; Men. private communica- munications. August 4 and 11. 1988; 12 per- tion; FAO/WFP, "Improved Land Use of the cent figure from Dennis Mahar, Government Loess Plateau"; Qi Ying. "Erosion Controls Policiet and Deforestation in Bra:il's Ammon Re- arc a Success," China Daily.March10, gion (Washington. D.C.: World Bank. 1988): 1987. fora discussion of modeling studies on tro;n- cal deforestation's links to rainfall. see Hen- 45. FAO/WFP, "Improved Land Use of derson-Sellers. "Effects of Change in Land the Loess Plateau"; author's visit to Mizhi Use on Climate." County Experiment Station, Shaanxi Prov- ince, June 14, 1988. 37. Jean-Paul Malingreau and Compton J. Tucker, "Large-Scale Deforestation in the 46. FAO/WFP, "Improved Lind Use of Southeastern Amazon Basin of Brazil" the Loess Plateau"; author's visit to Mizhi Ambio. Vol. 17. No. 1, 1988. County Experiment Station.

2.7 Notes (Chapter 2) (203) 47. Author's visit to two experimental vil- 57. Harrison, Greening of Africa; Lindsey lages and discussions with the Governor of Elilsunt. "Aggravating Ethiopia's Environ- Mizhi County and scientists at the Miz hi Ex- mental Disaster," Panoscope (London), Au- periment Station; Shaanxi Province, China. gust 1987; Robert M. Press, "Dash of Capi- June 14 and 15, 1988. talism Brightens Ethiopia Food Picture." 48. Cost cited is upper end of range for Christian Science Monitor, June 24, 1988. projects of this type in Loess Plateau, accord- 58. Harrison, Greening of Africa; see also ing to Men, private communication; also, Wolf, "Managing Rangelands." similar efforts in a nearby village cost $60 per hectare, according to Governer of Mizhi 59. Secretariat of the Independent Com- County, private communication, June 15, mission on International Humanitarian Is- 1988. sues, The Encroaching Desert: The Consequences of 49. Lengths of builds and terraces from Human Failure (London: Zed Books Ltd.. Hans Hurni. "Degradation and Conservation 1986); Wolf. "Managing Rangelands." of the Resources in the Ethiopian High- 60. Sant H. Johnson III. "Large Scale Irri- lands." Mountain Research and Development. gation and Drainage Schemes in Pakistan." Vol. 8. Nos. 2/3. 1988: number of food-for- in Gerald T. O'Mara, ed., Efficiency in hTiga- work projects from Paul Harrison, The Green- lion: The Conjunctive ("se of Sulfate and Ground- ing of Africa (New York: Viking/Penguin, water Resources(Washington. D.C.: World 1987): Debora MacKenzie, "Can Ethiopia be Bank, 1988). Saved?" New Scientist, September 24, 1987; share of land protected from Debora Mac- Gl. Asit K. Bias. "Environmental Con- Kenzie, "Ethiopia's Hand to the Plough," cerns in Pakistan, with Special Reference to New Scientist, October 1. 1987. Water and Fe csts," Environmental Conserva- tion, Winter 1987: Egypt figure from Janet 50. Rattan Lal. "Managing the Soils of Raloff. "Salt of the Earth," Science News. No- Sub-Saharan Africa... Science. May 29. 1987. vember 10. 1984. 51. Ibid. 62. Mostafa K. Tolba. "A Harvest of 52. Ibid.;formoreinformationon Dust?" Environmental Conservation.Spring agroforestr. see Poste] and Heise. Reforesting 1984: Mostafa K. Tolba, "The Tenth Anni- the Earth. versary of UNCOD," Desertification Control 53. Michael J. Dover and Lee M. Talbot. Bulletin. No. 15. 1987: Harold E. Dregne. "Feeding the Earth: An Agroecological Solu- "Combating Desertification: Evaluation of tion,"Technology Review.Februar /March Progress," Environi»einal Conservation. Sum- 1988. mer 1984:DanielStiles,U.N. Sndano- 54. World Bank. Vetiver Grass (relives-in Sahelian Office, private communication. New :kailioides 1 :. Method of I 'wrathy Soil and Mois- York. October 6. 1988. ture Conservation (New Delhi: 1987): John C. 63. Judith Gradwohl and Russell Green- Greenfield, seminar on the vetiver system berg. Saving the Tropical Forests (London: presented at the World Bank. Washington. Earthscatt Publications Ltd.. 1988). D.C., August 4, 1988. 55. World Bank, retailer Grass. 64. Tim Magee. "Trees for Farmers." PIA News, October 1987. 56. Author's discussion with officials at the State Land Administration. Beijing, China. 65. "India's'Peoples Forestry Pro - June 7, 1988: Mizhi County figures from gramme'--A Decentralized Approachto FAO /WEP, "Review of Project 2744," un- Reafforestation." in "News from UNEP," published paper. Rome, August 1987. Desertification Control Bulletin. No. 14. 1987;

2.1 S (204) Notes (Chapters 2 and 3) "Project Evaluation Mission in Southern Chapter 3. Reexamining the World India," in "News from UNEP." Desertcation Food Prospect Control Bulletin, No. 16, 1988. 1. World grain stocks from U.S. Depart- 66. UNEP/African Ministerial Conference ment of Agriculture (USDA). Foreign Agri- on the Environment (AMCEN), "Compen- cultural Service (FAS), World Grain Sinration dium of Project Fact Sheets Prepared in Con- and Outlook. Washington, D.C. July 1988. nection with the AMCEN Donors Meeting." 2. Grain output in 1987 from USDA. Eco- Nairobi, Kenya,January 1988; Tolba. "Tenth nomic Research Service (ERS), World Grain Anniversary of UNCOD." Harvested Area. Production, and Yield 1950-87 67. Tolba. "Tenth Anniversary of (unpublished printout) (Washington. D.C.: UNCOD." 1988); output in 1988 is a Worldwatch estimate. 68. Ibid.; William Mansfield. UNEP's Dep- uty Executive Director, private communica- 3. U.S. grain production from USIA, tion. Washington, D.C., August 17, 1988; FAS, World Grain Situation and Outlook, Wash- UNEP/AMCEN, "Compendium of Project ington. D.C., November 1988. Fact Sheets"; number of projects funded 4. USDA. National Agricultural Statistics from Stiles. private communication. Service (NASS). Crop Production. Washington. 69. Richard R. Pelleck, Senior Agrofores- D.C., August 1988; James E. Hansen, Direc- try Advisor. U.S. Agency for International tor. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Stud- Development (AID)/Haiti, private communi- ies. "The Greenhouse Effect: Impacts on Cur- rent Global Temperature and Regional Heat cation. March 1988: AID. The Environment: Waves," Testimony before the Committee on Managing Natural Resources for Sustainable De- Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate. velopment (Washington. D.C.: 1987). June 23, 1988; Syukuro Manabe, "Climate 70. Pelleck, private communication: AID, Warming Due to Greenhouse Gases," Testi- The Environment mony before the Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and Environmental Oversight, 71. Laura Tangley."FightingCentral Committee on Environment and Public America's Other War." BioScience, December Works, U.S. Senate, December 10, 1985. 1987. 5. USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950-87. 72. Ibid. 6. Gary A. Margheim, implementing Conser- 73. ldriss Jazairy, "How to Make Africa vation Compliance (Washington. D.C.: USDA. Self-Sufficient in Food." Development: Seeds of Soil Conservation Service (SCS).1986); Change, No. 2/3. 1987; number of projects "Farmers Turn Down the Irrigation Tap." from Most Efficient and Successful." World Farmline. August 1988; Gordon Sloggett and Development Fonim. December 15. 1987. Clifford Dickason, Ground-Water Mining in the 74. Jazairy. "How to Make Africa Self- United Slates (Washington, D.C.: USDA, ERS, Sufficient in Food." 1986). 75. Cowpea and sorghum figures from 7. Worldwatch Institute estimate based on N.C. Brady, "Science and Technology for irrigation data from Sloggett and Dickason. Ground - Plater Mint* on :..oil erosion data Development," Global Development Report. Fall from USDA, ERS, An Economic Analysis of 1987. USDA Erosion Control Programs (Washington, 76. Populationprojections from PRB. D.C.: 1986), and on grain production data 1988 World Population Data Sheet from USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87.

24s Notes (Chapter 3) (205 ) 8. Francis Urban and Philip Rose, World 21. USDA. FAS. World Rice: USDA, FAS, Population by Country and Region, 1950-86. and ll'orld Wheat and Coarse Grains; United Nations Projections to 2050 (Washington, D.C.: USDA. World Food Council (WFC), "The Global ERS, 1988); USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950- State of Hunger and Malnutrition; 1988 Re- 87. port," 14th Ministerial Session, Nicosia, Cy- prus. March 24, 1988. 9. Per capita data through 1987 from USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950-87: per capita 22. Calculations based on data in USDA, figure for 1988 derived from USDA, FAS, ERS. World Grain 1950-87. World Grain Situation, August 1988. and from 23. Ibid. Urban and Rose. World Population. 24. Ibid. 10. USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950-87. 25. Ibid.; USDA. ERS, An Economic Analy- 11. Ibid.; Bruce E. Goldstein, "Indonesia sis. ReconsidersResettlement,"WorldWatch (Washington. D.C.), March/April 1988. 26. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950 -87; Ye. F. Zorina et al., "The Role of the Human 12. USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950-87. Factor in the Development of the Gullying in 13. Ibid.; USDA, ERS, China: Agriculture the Steppe and Wooded Steppe of the Euro- and Trade Report. Washington, D.C.. June pean USSR," Soviet Geography, January 1977. 1988; "China Grain Yield Likely to Drop 27. Gorbachev quoted in Vera Rich, "Soil Below Target," Journal of Commerce, June 15, First," Nature, February 12, 1982. 1988. 28. Jiang Deqi et al., Soil Erosion and Conser- 14. Projected output from USDA, ERS, vation in the Wuding River Valley (Beijing: Yel- China: Situation and Outlook Report, Washing- low River Conservancy Commission. 1980), ton. D.C., July 1986. cited in S.A. El-Swaify and E.W. Dangler, "Rainfall Erosion in the Tropics: A State-of- 15. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. the Art," in American Society of Agronomy, 16. USDA, FAS. World Rice Reference Tables Soil Erosion and Conservation in the Tropics, Spe- (unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C.: cialPublication No. 43 (Madison. Wis.: July 1988); USDA, FAS, World Wheat and 1982); Josef R. Farrington et al., "Asian Dust: Coarse Grains Reference Tables (unpublished Seasonal Transport to the Hawaiian Is- printout) (Washington, D.C.: August 1988). lands." Science, April 8, 1983. 17. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87; 29. U.S. Agency for International Devel- World Bank, World Development Report 1988 opment, "Fiscal Year 1980 Budget Proposal (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988); for Ethiopia," Washington. D.C., 1978. USDA, ERS, China: Situation and Outlook Re- 30. USDA, ERS. China: Agriculture and port; USDA. ERS, China: .4griculture and Trade; Trade; USDA, ERS, Chine: Situation and Out- "Midsummer Heat Brings Problems," China look; World Bank. World Development Report Daily. August 4, 1988. 1988; USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. 18. USDA. ERS. China: Situation and Out- 31. Kenneth Newcombe. An Economic Justi- look; USDA. ERS. World Grain 1950-87. fication for Rural Afforestation: The Case of Ethio- pia. Energy Department Paper No. 16 (Wash- 19. USDA, FAS, World Rice; USDA, FAS, ington, D.C.: World Bank, 1984); Kenneth World Wheat and Coarse Grains. Newcombe. "Household Energy Supply: 20. USDA, FAS, World Rice: USDA, FAS, The Energy Crisis That Is Here To Stay!" World Wheat and Coarse Grains. presented to the World Bank Senior Policy

22 0 (206) Notes (Chapter 3) Seminar-Energy,Gabarone,Botswana. 41. David Fraser, "Water Crisis Threatens March 18-22. 1985. to Dry Up China's Future," New Straits Times, 32. K. G. Tejwani, Land Use Consultants May 8, 1986; Sandra Postel. Water: Rethinking International. private communication. July 3. Management in an Age of Scarcity. Worldwatch 1983; USDA, ERS, An Economic Analysis; Cen- Paper 62 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- tre for Science and Environment, The State of stitute. December 1984); Sloggett and Dicka- India's Environment 1982 (New Delhi: 1982). son. Ground-Water Mining. 33. Margheim,ImplementingConservation 42. USDA. ERS, Cropland. Water. and Con- Compliance. servation. 34. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87; 43. Sloggett and Dickason, Ground-Water U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization Mining. (FAO), Current World Fertilizer Situation and 44. Chinese irrigated area fell from nearly Outlook 1985/86-1991/92 (Rome: 1987). 45 million hectares in 1978 to an estimated 35. Sidy Gaye, "Glaciers of the Desert," 44 million hectares in 1987, according to Ambio, Vol. 16, No. 6, 1987; Asim I. El Mogh- data in USDA, ERS. China Situation and Out- raby et al., "Desertification in Western Sudan look Report. Washington, D.C., July 1987: and Strategies for Rehabilitation," Environ- Fraser. "Water Crisis Threatens to Dry Up mental Conservation. Autumn 1987; Djibril China's Future"; Postel. Water: Rethinking Diallo, "Saving Timbuktu," Africa Recovery. Management; Li Rongxia, "Irrigation System December 1987. in Central Shaanxi," Beijing Review. Decem- ber 14-20, 1987; Nie Lisheng, "State Orga- 36. Lester R. Brown and Christopher nizes Farmers to Work on Irrigation," China Flavin, "The Earth's Vital Signs," in Lester Daily, January 16. 1988. R. Brown et al., State of the World 1988 (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1988); USDA, 45. Salamat Ali, "Adrift in Flood and ERS, Cropland, Water. and Conservation: Situa- Drought," Far Eastern Economic Review. Au- tion and Outlook Report. September 1988. gust 27. 1987; Navin C. Joshi, "Ground Water Crisis Swells Up," Business Standard. 37. W.R. Rangeley, "Irrigationand April 26, 1988; B. B. Vohra, When Minor Drainage in the World." paper presented at Becomes Major: Some Problems of Ground Water InternationalConference on Food and Management (New Delhi: Advisory Board on Water, Texas A&M University, College Sta- Energy, 1986). tion, May 26-30, 1936; irrigated area 1980 to present is Worldwatch Institute estimate 46. Martin Walker, "Sea Turning Into based on ibid. Desert," Manchester Guardian Weekly, April 24, 38. Frederick W. Crook. Agricultural Statis- 1988. tics of the People's Republic of China. 1949-86 47. Philip P. Micklin. "Desiccation of the (Washington. D.C.: USDA, ERS, 1988). Aral Sea: A Water Management Disaster in 39. Centre for Monitoring the Indian the Soviet Union," Science. September 2, Economy. Economic Intelligence Service, 1988; Walker. "Sea Turning Into Desert." Basic Statistics Relating to the Indian Economy, 48. Walker, "Sea Turning Into Desert." I'd. I: All India (Bombay: 1984). 49. U.S. trend from "Farmers Turn Down 40. FAO, Production rearbooks (Rome: vari- the Irrigation Tap"; Chinese trend from ous years); Sloggett and Dickason. Ground- Crook. Agricultural Statistics. Water Mining; USDA, ERS, IISSR: Agriculture and Trade Report. Washington, D.C.. May 50. Rangeley, "Irrigation and Drainage." 1988. 51. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87.

224_ Notes (Chapters 3 mid 4) (207) 52. Yields 1984-88 from USDA, FAS, 66. Data on the carryover stocks of grain World Grain Situation. August 1988. in Table 3-3 differ from those in earlier States of the World because USDA recently recal- 53. FAO. Fertilizer Yearbooks (Rome: vari- culated the historical data on this item using ous years): Elliot Berg. "Fertilizer Subsidies" better information on China. (draft), World Bank, Wasbiroon. D.C., De- cember 1985. 67. World cropland areafigurefront USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950-87. 54. World fertilizer use from FAO. Fertili- zer Yearbooks: world grain area per person 68. USDA, FAS, World Grain Situation. No- from USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. vember 1988; data on oil exports from Brit- ish Petroleum Company, HP Statistical Review 55. FAO. Fertilizer Yearbooks: Anthony M. of World Energy (London: 1987). Tang and Bruce Stone. Food Production in the People's Republic of China (Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Insiitute, Chapter 4. Abandoning Homelands 1980). I. "Plan to Raze Chernobyl Reported," 56. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. New York Times, October 9, 1988. 57. Ibid.; Duane Chapman and Randy 2. U.S. Committee For Refugees. World Barker. Resource Depletion,.1picultural Re- Refugee Sarver, 1987 in Review (Washington, search. and Development (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell D.C.: American Council for Nationalities Ser- University. 1987). vice, I988). 58. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. 3. Worldwatch Institute estimate of the 59. Robert W. Herds, "Technological Po- current number of environmental refugees tential for Increasing Crop Productivity in worldwide assumes at least 8 million refu- Developing Countries." paper presented to gees from land degradation throughout the meeting of the International Trade Re- Africa, Asia, and Latin America, including search Consortium, December 14-18, 1986. conservative estimates of migrants to cities due to declining land productivity; about 2 60. Fertilizer returns 20 years ago and million displaced over the long term by natu- projections from Lester R. Brown with Erik ral disasters whose effects are exacerbated by P. Eckholm, By Bread Alone (New York: Prae- human activity; and several thousand dis- ger Publishers. 1974); Chapman and Barker, placed by toxic poisoning of land, including Resource Depletion: FAO, Current World Fertilizer the aftereffects of Chernobyl. Based on infor- Situation and Outlook mation obtained from the U.S. Slate Depart- 61. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. ment. the United Nations High Commis- sioner for Refugees, and various other 62. Ibid.: 1988 per capita production is a sources listed elsewhere in notes. Worldwatch estimate. 4. John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath 63. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87: (New York: Viking Press, 1939). 1988 Worldwatch estimate: human caloric in- 5. Standing Committee on Agriculture, take derived from data in FAO, Production Fisheries and Forestry, Soil .11 Risk Canada's Yearbook, 1986 (Rome: 1986). from USDA. Eroding Future. A Report on Soil Conserva- ERS. World Grain 1950-87, and from USDA. tion to the Senate of Canada (Ottawa: 1984). FAS. World Grain Situation, August 1988. 6. Paul Harrison, The Greening of Africa 64. USDA, ERS, World Grain 1950-87. (New York; Viking/Penguin. 1987); Robert 65. Ibid. M. Press, "Ethiopia Appears to Stay One

222 (208) Notes (Chapter 4) Small Step Ahead of Famine," Christian Sci- 16. UNEP, Desertcation Control in Africa: ence Monitor, June 15, 1988. Actions and Directory of Institutions (Nairobi: 7. Essam El-Hinnawi, Environmental Refu- 1985)- gees (Nairobi: United Nations Environment 17. Harrison. Greening of Africa;Anne Programme (UNEP). 1985). Charnock. "An African Survivor," New Scien- 8. UNEP, General Assessment of Progress in the tist, July 3. 1986; Susan Ringrose and Wilma Impknientation of the Plan of Action to Combat Matheson, "DesertificationinBotswana: Desedficalion1978-1984(Nairobi:1984); Progress Toward a Viable Monitoring Sys- figure on earth's total land surface from tem." Desertification Control Bulletin. No. 13, James H. Brown. Biogeography (St. Louis; C.V. 1986. Mosby Company. 1983): UNEP. "Sands of Change: Why Land Becomes Desert and 18. Mary Anne Weaver,"India: The What Can be Done About It," MEP Environ- 'Greening' of a Bad Drought," Christian Sci- ment Brief No. 2, Nairobi, 1988; H.E. Dregne ence Monitor. May 25, 1983; UNEP, "Sands of and C.J. Tucker, "Desert Encroachment," Change"; J. Bandyopadhyay and Vandana Desedificalion Control Bulletin, No. 16, 1988. Shiva, "Drought, Development. and Deser- tification." Economic and Political Weekly. Au- 9. UNEP, "Sandsof Change":H.E. gust 16, 1986; Jayanta Bandyopadhyay, "Po- Dregne, Desertification of .-hid Lanes (New litical York: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1983). Ecology of Drought and Water Scarcity: Need for an Ecological Water Re- 10. UNEP, "Sands of Change ": for infor- sources Policy," Economic and Political Weekly. mation on the ecology of the Sahelian region, December 12, 1987: Steven R. Weisman, seeHarrison.Greening of Africa; James "India's Drought Is Worst in Decades," New Brooke, "Some Gains in West Africa's War York Times, August16.1987; Anthony on the Desert." New York Times. September Spaeth,"Harshest DroughtinDecades 13. 1987. Devastates India's Crops, Slows Economic 11. UNEP, "Sands of Change"; Brooke. Growth," Wall Street Journal,August19, "Some Gains in West Africa's Ware': Carolyn 1987. M. Somerville, Drought and Aid in the Sahel 19. Lester R. Brown and Jodi L. Jacobson. (Boulder. Colo.: Westview Press.1986): Anders Wijkman and Lloyd Timberlake. Nat- The Future of Lirbani,tation: Facing the Ecological ural Disasters: Acts of God or Ads of Man (Lon- and Economic Constraints, Worldwatch Paper don: International Institute for Environment 77 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, and Development. 1984)- May 1987). 12. El-Hinnawi, Environmental Refugees; 20. Mark Kurlansky, "Haiti's Environment Wijkman and Timberlake, Natural Disasters. Teeters On the Edge," International Wildlife, March/April 1988; refugee figure from U.S. 13. El-H in nawi,Environmental Refugees: Committee For Refugees. World Refugee Sur- Harrison, Greening of Africa. vey. 14. Harrison, Greening of Africa; Wijkman and Timberlake, Natural Disasters; UNEP, 21. Richard M. Weintraub,''Flooding "Sands of Change";William S. Ellis, Worsens in Bangladesh," Washington Post, "Africa's Sahel: The Stricken Land," National September 5, 1988: "Bangladesh Intensifies Geographic, August 1987; Sidy Gaye, "Gla- Appeal for Flood Aid." New York Times, Sep- ciers of the Desert," Ambio, Vol, 16. No. 6. tember 4, 1988. 1987. 22. Per capita income figure from World 15. Oakland Ross, "Where the Water Bank, World Development Report 1988 (New Was." Globe and Mail, April 23, 1988. York: Oxford University Press, 1988); Popu-

2P3 Notes (Chapter 4) (209) lation Reference Bureau (PRB).1988 World 33. ibid.; Michael Weisskopf. "EPA to Population Data Sheet(Washington. D.C.: Complete Love Canal Cleanup but Habita- 1988); "Life in Bangladesh Delta: A Race bility Remains Uncertain."Washington Post, Bred By Disaster,"New York nines,June 21, October 27, 1987. 1987. 34. Federal Emergency Management 23. Nam! Huda. "Bangladesh Blames Agency (FEMA). "Superfund Reiocation As- Neighbors for its Floods," Panoscope (Lon- sistance," Washington. D.C., 1985; Charles don). December 1987. Robinson, FEMA, Washington. D.C.. private communication, February 22. 1988. 24. International Task Force,Tropical For- ests: A Call to Action, Part 2: Case Studies(Wash- 35. "Summary of Superfund Activity." un- ington. D.C.: World Resources Institute, published memorandum, FEMA, Washing- 1985). ton, D.C.,1988; "8 From Contaminated Town Lose Illness Suit."New York Times, 25. Huda, "Bangladesh Blames Neigh- June 9, 1988; Michael Weisskopf, "Buyouts bors": "Misery Rising in the Floods in Ban- Replacing Cleanups as Remedy for Polluted gladesh."New Yorknines.September 5. Communities,"Washivon Post,September 1987: S. Kamaluddin. "Flood of Woes,"Far 3, 1987. Eastern Economic Review.November 8, 1984. "Buyouts Replacing 26. Hans Hurni, "Degradation and Con- S6. Weisskopf, servation of the Resources in the Ethiopian Cleanups." Highlands.".Mountain Research and Develop- 37. David Maraniss and Michael Weiss- ment.Vol. 8, Nos. 2-3. 1988. kopf, "Jobs and Illness in Petrochemical Cor- Washington Post.December 22, 1987. 27. Blaine Harden, "Nile Floods in Sudan ridor." Termed Record. Could Deepen.**Washington 38. Ibid. Post.August 10. 1988. 39. Mike Leary, "Poisoned Environment 28. Debora MacKenzie, "Man-made Di- Worries Eastern Europe."Philadelphia In- saster in the Philippines,"New Scientist,Sep- quirer,October 4, 1987; Hilary F. French, tember 13, 1983. "Industrial Wasteland,"World Watch(Wash- 29. "12J Die in Avalanche of Mud in ington. D.C.). November/December 1988. Colombian Slum."New York Times,Septem- 40. "Soviet Environmental Official Urges ber 29, 1987. Punishment for Polluters."Journal of Com- merce.July 6, 1988. 30. Mac Margolis, "Rio's Mudslides Partly Self-inflicted,"If Post,February 28, 41. UNEP, "Hazardous Chemicals." 1988. UNEP Environment Brief No. 4,Nairobi, 1988. 31. Sally Johnson, "Toxic Waste Uproot- 42. Jon Nordheimer, "Dioxin's Effects in ing Elderly From Trailer Park,"New York Italy Less Severe Than Had Been Feared," Times.July 17, 1988: for information on haz- New York Times,January 31, 1983; Michael H. ardous waste problems in the developing Brown,The Toxic Cloud(New York: Harper & world, see H. Jeffrey Leonard. "Hazardous Row, 1987); Thomas W. Netter, "Dioxin of Wastes: The Crisis Spreads,"National Devel- '76 Italian Accident Reported Destroyed.** opment,April 1986. New York Times.July 14, 1986. 32. Love Canal Homeowners Association, 43. Jane H. Ives. ed..The Export of Hazard Love Canal: A Chronology of Events That Shaped (Boston: Routledge & Kegan Patti. 1985); a Movement(Arlington, Va.: Citizen's Clear- Sandra Postel,Defusing the Toxics Threat: Con- inghouse for Hazardous Wastes, Inc., 1984). trolling Pesticides and Industrial Waste,World-

2.24 (21o) :Votes (Chapters 4 and 5) watch Paper 79 (Washington, D.C.: World- 53. James G. Titus, EPA. "Causes and Ef- watch Institute. September 1987). fects of Sea Level Rise." presented to the First North American Conference on Prepar- 44. UNEP, "Hazardous Chemicals"; Mi- ing for Climate Change; A Cooperative Ap- chael Isikoff, "Twice Poisoned," The Washing- proach, Washington, D.C., October 27-29, ton Monthly, December 1987. 1987. 45. Christopher Flavin. Reassessing :Vueltas. 54. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, speech Power: The Fallout From Chernobyl, Worldwatch before the Forty-second Session of the U.N. Paper 75 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- General Assembly, New York. October 19, stitute, March 1987); George M. Woodwell, 1987. "Chernobyl: A Technology That Failed," Is- sues in Scienet and Technology. Fall 1986. 55, John D. Milliman et al.. "Environmen- tal and Economic Impact of Rising Sea Level 46. Flavin, Reassessing .Viteltar Power. and Subsiding Deltas; The Nile and Bengal 47. Wendy Grieder, U.S. Environmental Examples." Woods Hole Oceanographic In- Protection Agency (EPA), quoted in Nathan- stitution, Woods Hole, Mass., unpublished. iel Sheppard Jr., "U.S. Companies Looking 1988. Abroad for Waste Disposal," Journal of Com- 56, Ibid.; Daniel Jean Stanley, "Subsi- merce, July 20, 1988. dence in the Northeastern Nile Delta: Rapid 48. Blaine Harden. "Outcry Grows in Rates, Possible Causes, and Consequences," Africa Over West's Waste-dumping," !rash- Science, April 22, 1988. ingion Post, June 22. 1988; Steven Green- 57. Milliman et al., "Environmental and house, "Toxic Waste Boomerang: Ciao Economic Impact"; for further information. Italy!" Yew York Times, September 1, 1988. see Clyde Haberman, "A Steamy, Crowded 49. "Waste Imports Alarm Lebanese," Bangkok is Sinking Slowly Into the Sea." New Journal of Commerce. June 27, 1988; Harden. York Times, May 1, 1983. "Outcry Grows." 58. Information on Bangladesh and Egypt 50. Hilary F. French. "Combating Toxic in this section from Milliman et al., "Environ- 'Terrorism,"Irorld March (Washington. mental and Economic Impact," unless indi- D.C.), September/October 1988. cated otherwise. 51. Tom Gocmans and Pier Vellinga, 59. Year 2100 population from PRB, 1988 "Low Countries and High Seas." presented World Population Data Ant to the First North American Conference on 60. Number of people affected in 2050 Preparing (or Climate Change: A Coopera- from PRB, 1988 World Population Data Shttt. tive Approach. Washington, D.C., October 27-29, 1987; J.E. Prins, impact of Sea Level Rise 61. Prins, Impact of Sea Level Rise: Gayoom, on Society (Delft, Netherlands: Delft Hydrau- speech before U.N. General Assembly. lics Laboratory, 1986). 62. Gocmans and Vellinga, "Low Coun- 52. Robert C. Cowen, "Man-made Gases tries and High Seas"; U.S. coastline figure Increase the Chance of Major Weather from The 1988 Information Pleast Almanac Change." Christian Science Monitor. June 30, (New York: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1987). 1988; warming projections from U.S. Na- tional Academy of Sciences, Changing Climate. Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Chapter 5. Protecting the Ozone Layer Committee (Washington.D.C.;National 1. Joseph C. Farman et al., "Large Losses Academy Press. 1983). of Total Ozone in Antarctica Reveal Seasonal Notes (Chapter 5) (211) CIOINOx Interaction,"Nature,May 16. D.C.: Investor Responsibility Research Cen- 1985; Paul Brodeur, "Annals of Chemistry: ter, 1988); Richard S. Stolarski, "The Ant- In the Face of Doubt,"New Yorker,June 9, arctic Ozone Hole."Scientific ..linnican.Janu- 1986. ary 1988. 2. Subcommittees on Environmental Pro- 7. Susan Solomon, National Oceanic and tection and on Hazardous Wastes and Toxic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), inter- Substances,Implications of the Findings of the view on "The Hole M the Sky,"N01'4, Expedition to Investigate the Ozone Hole Over the WGBH-Boston. February 24, 1987. Antarctic,Committee on Environment and 8. Stolarski, "The Antarctic Ozone Hole"; Public Works. U.S. Senate. October 27, 1987. "Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment," 3. National Aeronautics and Space Ad- NASA, Washington, D.C., uly 1987; Shirley ministration (NASA), "Executive Summary Christian, "Pilots Fly Over the Pole into the of the Ozone Trends Panel," Washington, Heart of Ozone Mystery."New York Times, D.C., March 15, 1988, September 22. 1987. 4, United NationsEnvironmentPro- 9, Mario J. Molina et al.. "Antarctic Strato- gramme (UNEP), "Montreal Protocol on spheric Chemistry of Chlorine Nitrate, Hy- Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer," drogen Chloride, and Ice: Release of Active 1987; country updates from U.N. Treaty Of- Chlorine,"Science, November 27,1987; fice, New York, various private communica- Mario Molina, "The Antarctic Ozone Hole," tions:Office of Technology Assessment Oceania,Summer 1988; F. Sherwood Row- (OTA). U.S. Congress, "An Analysis of the land. University of California at Irvine, Testi- Montreal Protocol on Substances that De- mony before the Committee on Environment plete the Ozone Layer," Washington, D.C., and Public Works, U.S. Senate, September December 10, 1987 (rev, February 1. 1988): 14, 1988. James E. Hansen. Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, "The Green- 10. James G. Anderson, Harvard Univer- house Effect: Impacts on Current Global sity, Testimony before the Environmental Temperature and Regional Heat Waves," Protection and the Hazardous Wastes and Testimony before the Committee on Energy Toxic Substances Subcommittees, Commit- and Natural Resources, U,S. Senate, June 23. tee on Environment and Public Works. U.S. 1988; Linda J. Fisher. U.S. Environmental Senate, October 27. 1987. Protection Agency (EPA), Testimony before 1 1. Molina, "The Antarctic Ozone Hole"; the Subcommittee on Energy and Power. NASA. "Ozone Trends." Committee on Energy and Commerce, U.S. House of Representatives, September 22, 12. Fisher. Testimony: Wigley, "Future 1988; T.M.L. Wigley. "Future CFC Concen- CFC Concentrations";Michael McElroy. trations Under the Montreal Protocol and "The Challenge of Global Change,"New Sci- Their Greenhouse-Effect Implications," Na- entist,July 28. 1988; Donald R. Blake and F. tuff, September, 22, 1988. Sherwood Rowland. "Continuing World- wide Increase in Tropospheric Methane. 5. Farman et al.. "Large Losses"; Mario 1978 to 1987."Nainte,March 4. 1988. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland, "Strato- sphericSinkforChlorofluoromethanes: 13. Pamela S. Zurer, "Studies on Ozone Chlorine Atom Catalysed Destruction of DestructionExpand BeyondAntarctic," Ozone," .nature, June 28, 1974. Chemical and Engineering News.May 30, 1988. 6. Douglas G. Cogan,Stones in a Glass 14. Ibid.; Malcolm W. Browne. "New House; CFCs and Ozone Depletion(Washington, Ozone Threat: Scientists Fear Layer is Erod- 226 (212) Notes (Chapter 5) ing at North Pole,-New York Tunes.October September 28. 1988; Peter Wilkness. Na- 11. 1988. tional Science Foundation. Testimony before the Environmental Protection and the Haz- 15 Zurer, "Studies on Ozone Destruction Expand Beyond Antarctic": Molina. "The ardous Wastes and Toxic Substances Sub- Antarctic Ozone Hole: John Gribben. "Sat- committees. Committee on Environment and Public Works. U.S. Senate, October 27. ellite Failure Threatens Ozone Probe."New 1987. Scientist.July 14, 1988. 25 National Cancer Institute, 16. Rowland, Testimony: R. Monastersky. 1987 annual Cancer Statistics Review. Including Cancer Trends: **Arctic Ozone: Signs of Chemical Destruc- 1950-1985(Bethesda, Md: National Insti- tion,"Science News.June 11, 1988: Robert T. tutes of Health, 1987); Arjun Makhijani et al., Watson. NASA, Testimony before the Envi- ronmental Protection and the Hazardous Saving Our Skins: Technical Potential and Policies for the Elimination of Ozone-Depleting Chlorine Wastes and Toxic Substances Subcommit- Compounds(Washington. D.C.: Environmen- tees. Committee on Environment and Public tal Policy Institute/Institute for Energy and Works, U.S. Senate, October 27, 1987. Environmental Research. 1988); EPA, 17. NASA. "Ozone Trends." Regulatory Impact Analysis. 18. Ibid. 26. Robin Russell Jones, "Ozone Deple- 19. Ibid.: McElroy. "Challenge of Global tion and Cancer Risk,"Lancet,August 22, Change." 1987: Janice Longstreth. "Health Effects As- sociated with Stratospheric Ozone Deple- 20. Robert T. Watson, '*Present State of tion." in Dr. Karola Taschner. ed..The Sky is Knowledge of the Ozone Layer," presented the Limit(Brussels: European Environmental to The Changing Atmosphere.. Implications Bureau, 1987); Darrel Rigel, New York Uni- for Global Security, Toronto. June 27-30. versity Medical Center, Testimony before the 1988; Rowland, Testimony. Subcommittee on Health and the Environ- 21. James Gleik,"Even WithAction ment. Committee on Energy and Commerce, Today, Ozone Loss Will Increase,"New York U.S. House of Representatives, March 9. 1987. 71nres,March 20. 1988. 22. NASA. "Ozone Trends"; EPA,Regula- 27. EPA,Regulatory Impact Analysis. tory Impact .-analysis: Protection of Stratospheric 28. MargaretKripke.M.D., Anderson Ozone,Volume I (Washington, D.C.: 1987), Hospital and Tumor Institute, Testimony 23. J.C. van der Leun, "Health Effects of before the Environmental Protection and the Ultraviolet Radiation," draft report to the Hazardous Wastes and Toxic Substances UNEP Coordinating Committee on the Subcommittees. Committee on Environment Ozone Layer, Effects of Stratospheric Modifi- and Public Works, U.S. Senate. May 12, cationandaimateChange.Bilthoven,Nether- 1987: EPA,Regulatory Impact Analysis:Janice lands, November 19-21. 1986 (hereinafter Longstreth, 1CF Inc.. Fairfax. Va.. private communication. September 28. 1988. cited as UNEP Coordinating Committee). 24. Ibid.: Paul Strickland et al.. "Sunlight, 29. EPA,Regulatory Impact Analysis;Long- streth,private communication;**Chloro- Ozone, and Skin Cancer."Health & Environ- fluorocarbons: A Valuable Chemical Threat- ment Digest,May 1988. "Effects of Ozone Layer Modification," UNEP Coordinating ens the Atmosphere."Health & Environment Digest,May 1988. Committee: EPA,Regulatory Impact Analysis: Polly Penhale, National Science Foundation, 30. "Risks to Crops and Terrestrial Eco- Washington. D.C., private communication, systems From Enhanced UV-B Radiation." 2 7 Notes (Chapter 5) (213) draft report to the UNEP Coordinating Com- 38. Shabecoff, "Ozone Pollution"; Harold mittee; Alan Teramura, "The Potential Con- Dovland,"Monitoring European Trans- sequences of Ozone Depletion Upon Global boundary Air Pollution," Environment, De- Agriculture," in J. Titus, ed., Mitts of Changes cember 1987. in Stmlopheric Ozone and Global Climate (Wash- 39. Private communications with officials ington, D.C.: EPA, 1986); Alan H. Teramura at EPA, National Science Foundation, U.S. and N.S. Murali, "Intraspecific Differences in Department of Agriculture, and National In- Growth and Yield of Soybean Exposed toill- stitutes of Health; Hartmut Kenne, Ecologi- traviolet-B Radiation Under Greenhouse and cal Research Division, West German :inistry Field Conditions," Environmental and Experi- for Research and Technology. Bonn. private mental Botany, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1986. communication, June 28. 1988. 31. James Falco, Director, Office of Envi- 40. EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis. ronmental Processes and Effects Research. 41. Cogan, Stones in a Glass House. EPA, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research 42. Chemical Manufacturers Association and Environment, Committee on Science. (CNA), "Production, Sales, and Calculated Space and Technology, U.S. House of Repre- Release of CFC-11 and CFC -12 Through sentatives, March 10, 1987. 1986," Washin gton.D.C.,November 18 .1987. 32. Robert C. Worrest, "What Are the Ef- 43. Michael Weisskopf, "CFCs: Rise and fects of UV-B Radiation on Marine Orga- Fall of Chemical 'Miracle'," Washington Post. nisms?" Testimony before the West German April 10, 1988; EPA, Addenda to Regulatory Bundestag Commission on Preventive Mea- Impact Analysis; Alliance for Responsible CH: sures to Protect the Earth's Atmosphere, Policy, The Montreal Protocol: A Briefing Book April 27, 1988, (Rosslyn, Va.: 1987). 33. Robert C. Worrest, "Solar Ultravio- 44. Steve Risotto, Halogenated Solvents let-B Radiation Effects on Aquatic Orga- Industry Alliance. Washington. D.C., private communication, August 31, 1988. nisms," draft report to the UNEP Coordinat- ing Committee: "Dinosaurs Doomed by a 45. Cogan. Stones in a Glass House. Dearth of Plankton," New Scientist. March 17, 46. Ron Wolf, "Ozone Layer Negotiations 1988. Target Chlorofluorocarbons. " Jounial of Com- 34. Worrest. "Solar Ultraviolet-B Radia- merce, August 13, 1987; Alliance for Respon- tion Effects on Aquatic Organisms." sible CFC Policy, Briefing Book. 35. Office of Air and Radiation, Assessing 47. Cogan, Stones in a Glass House; P.H. the Risks of Trace Gases that Can Modify the Strato- Gamlen et al., "The Production and Release sphere (Washington, D.C.: EPA, 1987). to the Atmosphere of CC13F and CCI2F2 (Chlorofluorocarbons CFC 11and CFC 36. Raymond J. Kopp and Alan J. Krup- 12)." Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 20, No. 6, nick, "Agricultural Policy and the Benefits of 1986: Elizabeth Festa Gormley, CMA. Wash- Ozone Control," American Journal of Agricul- ington, D.C., private communication, August tural Economics, December 1987. 31, 1988; Christopher F.P. Bevington, Metro 37. Philip Shabecoff, "Ozone Pollution is Consulting Group Limited, London, private Found at Peak in Summer Heat." New York communication, May 23. 1988; Risotto, pri- Times, July 31, 1988; Marjorie Sun, 'Tighter vate communication. Ozone Standard Urged by Scientists," Sci- 48. EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis; Rich- ence, June 24, 1988. ard Monastersky, "Decline of the CFC Em-

228 (214) Notts (Chapter 5) pire," Science News, April 9, 1988; House of ucts Without CFCs, Association Says," Inter- Commons Environment Committee, Air Pol- national Environment Reporter. June 8, 1988; lution(London: Her Majesty's Stationery Vera Rich, "Growing Reaction to Ozone Office, 1988); Cogan, Stones in a Glass Howe; Hole in Soviet Union," Nature. August 25, "White Paper on the Environment in Japan 1988. 1988,"JapaneseEnvironmentAgency, 57. F. Camm et al. "The Social Cost of Tokyo, May 1988, Technical Control Options to Reduce Emis- 49, CMA, "Production, Sales, and Cal- sions of Potential Ozone Depicters in the culated Release." United States: An Update," The Rand Cor- poration, Santa Monica. Calif., May 1986; 50. Cogan. Stones in a Glass Howe. Alan S. Miller and Irving M. Miutzer, "The 51, CMA, "Production, Sales. and Cal- Sky Is the Limit: Strategies for Protecting the culated Release"; Risotto, private communi- Ozone Layer." World Resources Institute, cation. Washington, D.C., November 1986. 52. Michael Weisskopf, "EPA Urges Hatt 58. M. Drechsler, Umweltbundesamt, Ber- in Use of CFCs," Washington Post. September lin, West Germany, private communication, 27, 1988; John S. Hoffman and Michael J. June 24, 1988; L.R. Wallace. AT&T. Prince- Gibbs, Future Concentrations of Stratospheric ton, NJ., private communication. March 9. Chlorine and Bromine (Washington, D.C.: EPA. 1988; Maurice Verhille. Atochem, Paris, pri- 1988). vate communication, June 17. 1988: Kevin 53, Cogan, Stones in a Glass House; CMA. Fay, Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, "Production, Sales, and Calculated Release"; Rosslyn, Va.. private communication. Octo- ber 14, 1988; J. Rodgers. Allied-Signal. "Re- Michael Kavanaugh et al., "An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Regulatory and Non- cycling and Recovery of Solvents in the Elec- tronicsIndustry,"in"Proceedingsof Regulatory Events Related to the Abandon- ment of Chlorofluorocarbons as Aerosol Conference and Traue Fair: Substitutes and Alternatives to CFCs and Halons," EPA, Propellants in the United States From 1970 Washington, D.C.. January 13-15, 1988 to 1980, with a Discussion of Applicability of the Analysis to Other Nations," ICF Inc.. (hereinafter cited as Substitutes and Alterna- Washington, D.C., February 1986 (rev.); tives Conference). Nigel Haigh, EEC Environmental Policy & Brit- 59. "Takeshita Cabinet Approves Ozone ain (Hallow, Essex: Longman Group UK Ltd, Bill Including Tax Incentives for CFC Recy- 1987). cling."InternationalEnvironmentReporter. April 13, 1988. 54, Cumulative emissions reductions from EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis; CMA, "Pro- 60. C.H. Mueller, "Report on Realisation duction, Sales, and Calculated Release." and ResLits with a Full Scale CFC 11 Recov- ery Unit in the Flexible Foam Slabstock Pro- 55. CMA, "Production, Sales. and Cal- duction at Recticel in Kesteren Holland." culated Release," Escher Hoogezand. Netherlands, March 11, 56. "The Aerosol Industry and CFCs: A 1987; Dr, H. Creyf, Recticel. Testimony Parting of the Ways," ENDS Report, January before the West German Bundestag Com- 1988; Mark Vandenreeck, Belgian embassy, mission on Preventive Measures to Protect Washington, D.C.. private communication. the Earth's Atmosphere, April 13. 1988; Na- April 14. 1988; Wolf Dieter Garber, Umwelt- tional Swedish Environmental Protection bundesamt, Berlin, West Germany, private Board, CFCs/Freons; Proposals to Protect the communication, June 24. 1988; "Aerosol Ozone Layer (Solna, Sweden: 1987); "Foam Makers to Offer Voluntary Labeling for Prod- Plastics: Next in Line for the CFCs Cam-

2P 9 Notes (Chapler 5) (215) paign." ENDS Report, March 1988; N.C. Gladwell, "Du Pont Mans to Make CFC Al- Vreenegoor."EnvironmentalConsidera- ternative." Washington Post. September 30, tions in the Production of Flexible Slab- 1988. stock," Substitutes and Alternatives Confer- 68. "Carhidc Easing an Ozone Peril," ence. Washington Post, August 6, 1988; "Dow to 61. Mueller. "Report on Realisation and Curtail CFCs." Washington Post.May 14, Results with a Full Scale CFC 11 Recovery 1988. Unit"; Creyf, Testimony; National Swedish 69. Thomas P. Nelson. "Findings of the Environmental Protection Board, CFCs/ Fre- Chlorofluorocarbon ChemicalSubstitutes ons; "Foam Plastics: Next in Line," ENDS Re- International Committee," EPA. Washing- port; Vreenegoor, "Environmental Consider- ton, D.C., 1988; Mcirion Jones. In Search of ationsintheProductionofFlexible Safe CFCs," New Scientist. May 26, 1988; U. Slabstock." Bohr, Du Pont, Testimony before the West 62. EPA, Addenda to Regulatory Impact German Bundestag Commission on Preven- Analysis. tive Measures to Protect the Earth's Atmo- 63. Sarah L. Clark, "Protecting the Ozone sphere, April 25, 1988; Imperial Chemical Layer: What You Can Do," Environmental Industries (1C1), Testimony before the West Defense Fund, New York, 1988; Jean Lupi- German Bundestag Commission on Preven- nacci, EPA, Washington, D.C., private com- tive Measures to Protect the Earth's Atmo- munication. October 14.1988; Kenneth sphere. April 29, 1988. Manz, Robinair, Montpelier, Ohio, private 70. "Du Pont Secs Progress in Replacing communication, August 11, 1988. Fluorocarbons." Chemical Marketing Reporter, 64. Clark, "Protecting the Ozone Layer "; January II, 1988; "Korean Firm Joins in In- Lupinacci, private communication. ternational Effort to Pool Knowledge on CFC Toxicity Testing Studies," hiternational Envi- 65. Mr. Pautz, Umweltbundesamt, Berlin, ronment Reporter, April 13, 1988; Greg Frei- West Germany, private communication, June herr,Can Chemists Save the World from 24, 1988. Chemists?" The Scientist. May 16. 1988. 66. John R. Fisher, "A New Rosin Deflux- 71. Camm et al., "Social Cost of Technical nig Alternative," AT&T, Princeton, NJ., Control Options"; National Swedish Envi- 1988; Philip Shabecoff, "New Compound Is ronmental Protection Board. CFCs/Freons. Hailed as Boon to Ozone Shield," Nero l'ork Times. January 14, 1988; Pamela S. Zurcr, 72. Makhijani et al, Saving Our Skins; Nick "SearchintensifiesforAlternativesto Sundt, OTA, Washington. D.C.. private com- Ozone-Depleting Halocarbons," Chemical and munication, July 28. 1988. Engineering News. February 8, 1988; Sudhakar 73. Tom Potter, "Potential for Offsetting Kesavan, "Overview of CFC.I13 Use in the CFCs with Advanced Insulation." Substitutes Electronics Industry and Control Options and Alternatives Conference. Available."Substitutes andAlternatives Conference. 74. John W. Mossel "Uses of Halons and Opportunities for Emission Reductions: Size 67. Laurie Hays, "Du Pont Plans Plant to and Structure of the Market," Substitutes Produce Refrigerant Harmless to Ozone," and Alternatives Conference. Wall Street Journal. September 30. 1988; "Du Pont Plans Commercial-Scale Plant for Pro- 75, Ibid.; Tom Moorehousc, "1 tic Air duction of CFC -12 Substitute," Journal of Force Halon/Ozone Research Program," Commerce,September 30,1988; Malcolm Substitutes and Alternatives Conference.

230 (216) Notes (Chapters 5 and 6)

76. GregoryC.Munie, AT&TBell 88. $100-million figure from Fay, private Laboratories. "Experience with the Use of communication. Aqueous Cleaning in the Electronics Indus- 89. Mark Ledbetter. American Council for try," Substitutes and Alternatives Confer- an Energy Efficient Economy, Washington, ence; Leo Lambert, "Digital Equipment Cor- D.C., private communication, October 12, poration Experience with Aqueous 1988; Terry Statt, U.S. Department of En- Cleaning," Substitutes and Alternatives Con- ergy, Washington, D.C., private communica- ference; Eileen B. Claussen, "Moving For- tion, October 12, 1988. ward Together," The Environmental Forum, July/Atigust 1988; Kathi Johnson, U.S. Navy, 90. Suzanne Butcher, U.S. Department of "Alternative Cleaning Materials: Research State, Washington, D.C., private communica- Topics for the Military," Substitutes and Al- tion, September 1988; Joan Martin-Brown, ternatives Conference. UNEP, Washington, D.C.. private communication, November 1, 1988. 77. UNEP, "Montreal Protocol"; U.N. Treaty Office, private communication. 78. U.N. Treaty Office, private communi- Chapter 6. Rethinking Transportation cation. I. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associa- 79. Refrigerator use in China from Na- tion (MVMA), Facts and Figures '88 (Detroit, tional Swedish Environmental Protection Mich.: 1988). Board,CFCs /Freon, 2. Production and ownership data from 80, UNEP, "Montreal Protocol." MVMA, Ilrorld Motor Vehicle Data, 1987 Edition (Detroit, Mich.: 1987) and MVMA, Fads and 81, Ibid.; OTA,''An Analysis of the Mon- Figures '87 (Detroit, Mich.: 1987), treal Protocol." 3. MVMA, World MotorVehicle Data, 1987. 82, Hoffman and Gibbs, Future Concentra- tions. 4, Toli Welihozkiy,''Automobiles and the Soviet Consumer," in Soviet Economy in a Time 83. Ibid. of Change,Vol. 1, Compendium of Papers 84. James K. Hammitt et al "Future Submitted to the U.S. Congress, Joint Eco- Emission Scenarios for Chemicals that May nomic Committee, October 10, 1979; "Rus- Deplete Stratospheric Ozone," Nature, De- sian Cars: French Accent," The Economist, De- cember 24, 1987; Arjun Makhijani, Institute cember 3, 1983; MVMA, World Motor Vehicle for Energy and Environmental Research, Data(Detroit, Mich.; various editions). Takoma Park, Md private communication, 5. Clyde H. Farnsworth, "Rise in Allies' October 26, 1988, Lending to Soviets Divides U.S.," New York 85. Hoffman and Gibbs, Future Concentra- Times, October 21, 1988. tions. 6, Worldwatch Institute, based on MVMA, 86. Government of Sweden, "Environ- FadsandFigures(Detroit, Mich.: various edi- mental Policy for the 1990s," Environmental tions). Bill, March 4, 1988; Makhijani et al., Saving 7. MVMA, Fads and Figures '87. Our Shim. 8. Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski, "The Outlook 87. National Swedish Environmental Pro- for Latin American Debt,"Foreign Affairs,Fall tection Board,CFCs/Freons;Government of 1987; William A. Orme, "End of Mexico's Oil Sweden, "Environmental Policyforthe Boom Era Has Meant Hardships for Citi- 1990s." zens," Washington Post, August 16, 1987;

231 Notes (Chapter 6) (2:7) James Bruce, "Atitolatina Braces For Further 15. On Brazilian oil import bills, see "Bra- Clash,"Journal of Commerce,October 15, zil Survey," TheEconomist,April 25, 1987; 1987; MVMA,World Motor Vehicle Data, 1987. IMF,International Financial Statistics, 1987.A 9. "The Giants Ship Out to Shape Up," barrel of alcohol fuel costs about $45 to provide (compared with oil prices currently Gazeta Mercantil,July 13, 1987Jarnes V. Hig- barely above $10), but its retail price is kept gins, "Mexico Pins Economic Recovery on to no more than 65 percent of gasoline Auto Exports,"DetroitNews, June 10, 1988. prices. Moreover, a reduced fuel import bill 10, Alan Altshuler et al.,The Future of the is at least partially offset by the need to im- Automobile: The Report of .MT's International port some $3 billion worth of foodstuffs that Mao Program(Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, farmers stopped planting in order to grow 1984); export and car density data based on sugarcane as an ethanol feedstock; Mark MVMA,World Motor Vehicle Data, 1987and Kosmo,Money to Burn? The High Costs of Energy Fads and Figures 37. Subsidies(Washington,D.C.: World Re- 1 I. Population data from United Nations, sources Institute, 1987). World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projec- 16. United Nations, 1985Energy Statistics tions as Assessed in 1984(New York: 1986); Yearbook(New York: 1987). MVMA,Facts and Figures '37;"A Great Drive 17. Cynthia Pollock Shea,Renewable En- Forward,"Asiaweek,December 11,1987; "How China Boosts Her Car Industry," ergy: Today's Contribution, Tomorrow's Promise, Worldwatch Paper 81 (Washington, D.C.: China Daily,July 3, 1987; "China Plans to Worldwatch Institute, January 1988). Even in Build More Cars,"China Daily.June 25, Brazil, demand is growing for gasoline-pow- 1987: John Elliott, "A 1950s Comeback,"Fi- ered cars, particularly since the government nancial Times Motor Industry Survey,October decided to reduce the subsidy for ethanol: 14. 1986. "Gasoline-Powered Cars: Output on the Up- 12. United Nations.World Population Pros- swing,"Gaeta Mercantil,July 25, 1988. Corn pects;additions to U.S. car fleet calculated as feedstock discussed in "PMAA Makes a from MVMA,World Motor Vehicle Data, 1987. Case for Methanol,"Energy Daily,July 30, 13. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 1987; Barry Commoner, "Economic Growth Assessment of Costs and Benefits of Flexible and and Environmental Quality; How to Have Alternative Fuel Use in the U.S. Transportation Both,"Social Polity,Summer 1985. SectorProgress Report One: Context and Analyt- 18. J.R. Kenworthy and P.W.G. Newman, ical Framework(Washington, D.C.:1988); "The Potential of Ethanol as a Transporta- transportsector consumption based on tion Fuel: A Review Based on Technological, Philip Patterson, "Periodic Energy Report. Economic, and Environmental Criteria," Dis- No. 2/1987." DOE, Washington, D.C., De- cussion Paper No. 6/86, Murdoch University, cember 1987, and on Mary C. Holcomb et Australia, August 1986: "Energy: Another al., Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 9 Deficit,"The Economist.November 14, 1987. (Oak Ridge, Tenn.; Oak Ridge National 19. DOE,Costs and Benefits of Flexible and Laboratory,1987). Comparative international data for passenger cars only are not Alternative Fuel Use. available. 20. Peter Hoffmann, "Hydrogen: Power to Burn?"Not Man Apart.November/Decem- 14, International Monetary Fund (IMF), ber1987; "Hydrogen DrivesPrototype International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1987 Van,"New Scientist,February 27, 1986. (Washington, D.C.: 1987); Jos* Goldemberg et al.,Energy for Development.(Washington, 21. Mark A, DeLuchi et al., "A Compara- MC.; World Resources Institute, 1987). tiveAnalysisof Future Transportation

23 2 (218) Moles (Chapter 6) Fuels," Institute of Transportation Studies, 28. Ibid. University of California, Berkeley. October 29. Klaus NItiller. "The Increasing Use of 1987; Paul J. Werbos, Oil Dependency and the Plastics and its Impacts on the Recyclability Potential for Fuel Cell Vehicles, Technical Paper of Automobiles and on Waste Disposal in Series (Warrendale. Pa.: Society of Automo- West Germany. theUnitedStates and tive Engineers (SAE). 1987). Japan," presented at the Second Recycling 22. Averagefleetfuel economy from Conference. Washington. D.C. June 18-19. DOE, Energy Information Administration, 1987; Bleviss, The New Oil Crisis. Monthly Energy Review, October 1987; new- car fuel economy from MVMA. Fads and Fig- 30. Bleviss. The New Oil Crisis. ures '87. 31. OECD, Environmental Effects of Automo- 23. Fuel efficiency has been responsible tive Transport (The Compass Project) (Paris: for an estimated two thirds of the reduced 1986). gasoline consumption per car in countries 32. Bleviss, The Neu, Oil Crisis. that are members of the Organisation for Ec- 33. Ibid. onomic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), with the remainder due to reduced 34. Ibid.;Dan McCosh."Automotive driving; International Energy Agency (IEA). Newsfront." Popular Science. December 1987. Energy Conservation in 1 EA Countries and Energy 35. "Burnley Pushes Repeal of Fuel Econ- Policies and Programmes of 1E:1 Countries, 1986 omy Rules." Journal of Commerce, October 24. Review (Paris: OECD, 1987). 1988. 24. Soviet and East German fuel economy 36. Ford quote is from Roberti. Golten et from William U. Chandler, Energy Productivity: al., eds., The End of the Road. 4 Citizen's Guide Key to Environmental Protection and Economic Progress, Worldwatch Paper 63 (Washington. to Transportation Problemsolving (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute. January 1985). D.C.; National Wildlife Federation/Environ- mental Action Foundation, Inc., 1977). 25. MVMA, Facts and Figures '87: WA. En- ergy Conservation in !EA Countries; R.M. Hea- 37. Worldwatchestimates.based on venric h et al., Light Dtily Autosnotive Trends NiVMA. Facts and Figures '87. Through 1986, Technical Paper Series (War- 38. The U.S. "gas guzzler" tax is assessed rendale, Pa.: SAE. 1986). On light trucks. see on the 'basis of a particular vehicle's fuel Philip Patterson. "Analysis of Future Trans- economy. However, it fails to encourage car portation Petroleum Demand and Efficiency buyers to purchase the most fuel-efficient Improvements." presented at IEA Energy models available; A 1986 car achieving a rat- Demand Analysis Symposium, Paris, Octo- ing of more than 22.5 miles per gallon (MPG) ber 12-14. 1987; Patterson. "Periodic En- was not subject to any levy, even while the ergy Report." The trend toward larger cars government's own standards dictated a mini- in Europe is particularly strong in West Ger- mum corporate average fuel efficiency stan- many; Bundesministerium fur Verkehr, l'er- dard of 26 MPG. See Holcomb et al.. Trans- kehr in Zahlen 1987 (Bonn: 1987). portation Energy Data Book; Gary Klott, "Rise 26. Holcomb et al.. Transportation Energy in 'Gas Guzzler' Tax Approved by Senate Data Book. Panel." New York Times, March 22, 1988. 27. Deborah Lynn Bleviss, The New Oil Cri- 39. DeLuchi et al., "Comparative Analysis sis and Fuel Economy Technologies: Preparing the of Future Transportation Fuels"; "Auto LightTransportation Industry for the 1990's Overuse -- Dirty Air," National Association of (New York: Quorum Press. 1988). Railroad Passengers News, February 1988. Notes (Chapter 6) (219) 40. And Alexandre and Christian Aver- emissions, private communications, March ous, "Transport's Toll on the Environment," 15 and April 7. 1988. OECD Observer,February /March 1988; car- 46. On U.S. standards, see Holcomb et al., bon dioxide (CO2) estimate from DeLuchi et Transportation Energy Data Book:OECD,Energy al.. ''Comparative Analysis of Future Trans- and CleanerAir; Japanese standards from T. portation Fuels." In the United States, high- Karasudani, Japan External Trade Organiza- way transportation accounts for about 27 tion, New York. N.Y., private communica- percent of all fossil-fuel-released CO,. tion, February 24. 1988; Michael P. Walsh. 41. Rose Marie Audette. "It Only Hurts "Worldwide Developments in Motor Vehicle When You Breathe,"Environmental Action, Pollution ControlA 1987 Overview." and March/April 1988; U.S. Environmental Pro- Alfred Szwarc and Gabriel Murgel Branco. tection Agency (EPA),The Economic Ejects of "Automotive EmissionsThe Brazilian Con- Ozone on Agriculture(Corvallis, Ore.: 1984). trol Program," in SAE.Motor Vehicle Pollution (Warrendale, Pa.: Recent studies indicate that several hours of ControlA Global Perspective 1987). Different driving cycles and types of exposure at lower levels may be dangerous to instrumentation used make precise compari- human health;seeMichaelWeisskopf. sons of national standards difficult. "Ozone Dangers Upgraded,"Washington Post,July 8. 1988. 47. Merrill Korth, EPA, Ann Arbor, Mich.. private communication, February 24. 1988; 42. EPA,National Air Quality and Emissions H. Henssler and S. Gospage. "The Exhaust Trends Report, 1986(Research Triangle Park. Emission Standards of the European Com- N.C.: 1988); "Central Budapest Car Ban munity." in in SAE,Motor Vehicle Pollution Con- Seeks to Curb Air Pollution," Reuters, March 30. 1988; Alan Cowell, "War on Smog is Rude Awakening for Athens,"New York 48. Walsh, "Worldwide Developments"; Times,February 14. 1988. Alson, private communication. 43. Sandra Postel,Air Pollution. Acid Rain. 49. OECD,OECD Environmental Data and the Future of Forests,Worldwatch Paper 58 Compendium 1987(Paris: 1987); World Re- (Washington. D.C.: Worldwatch Institute. sources Institute/International Institute for Environment and Development.World Re- March 1984); Diane Fisher et al.. "Polluted sources 1987(New York: Basic Books. 1987); Coastal Waters: The Role of Acid Rain," En- Commission of the European Communities, vironmental Defense Fund. New York, April The State of the Environment in the European Com- 1988. munity 1986(Brussels: 1987); EPA.National 44. Laura Tangley. "Preparing for Cli- Air Pollutant Estimates, 1940-1986(Research mate Change."BioScience,January 1988; Triangle Park, N.C.: 1987). Philip Shabecoff, "Temperature for World 50. EPA,Air PollutantEstimates,1940- Rises Sharply in the 1980's,"New York Times, 1986;Alson. private communication. March 29, 1988. 51. Audette. "It Only Hurts When You 45. OECD.Energy and Cleaner Air(Paris: Breathe"; "EPA Punts on Construction Sanc- 1987); EPA.Compilation of Air Pollutant Emis- tions for City Ozone Violators,"Not Man sion FactorsVolume 11: Mobile Sources,4th ed. Apart,November/December 1987; Michael (Ann Arbor, Mich.: 1985); Jeff Alson, EPA. Weisskopf, "Hill Group Seeks to Clear the Emission Control Technology Division, Ann Air With Compromise on Smog Control." Arbor. Mich., private communications. Feb- Washington Post,March 18, 1988; Dennis : uary 24 and April 14. 1988: Michael P. Wamsted. "Au Revoir to an Acid Rain Bill," Walsh. technical consultant on automotive Energy Daily,October 5, 1988.

23 4 (220) Notes (Chapter 6) 52. Thomas quoted in "EPA Chief Sees Balance,dlteniative Fuels as an Air Quality Im- Auto Use Curbs, " Journalof Commerce,March provement StrategyProspects, Options, and Impli- 9, 1988; Cowell, "War on Smog"; "Central cations for California(Sacramento, Calif.: No- Budapest Car Ban," Reuters; "Air Pollution vember 1987): California Energy in Brazil,"Multinational Environmental Outlook. Commission. "Report of the Methanol Task July 21. 1988; Clyde Haberman, "Is It Over Force." EPA and California state officials dis- Then? The City Closes Its Heart to the Car." agree ai.out whether pure methanol helps re- New York Times,October 10. 1988. duce nitrogen oxide: Alson, private commu- 53. DeLuchi et al., "Comparative Analysis nication. of Future Transportation Fuels ": Bleviss.The 58. Coal contains 1.4 times as much car- Nrw Oil Crisis. bon per unit of stored energy as oil; Jim 54. Barry Commoner. "A Reporter at MacKenzie, "Relative Releases of Carbon Di- Large: The Environment,"The New Yorker, oxide from Several Fuels," World Resources June 15, 1987; OECD,Environmental Effects of Institute, Washington, D.C., mimeographed, Automotive Transport.On ceramics, see Robert June 10, 1987. For detailed calculations of P. Larsen and Anant D. Vyas, "The Outlook CO2 emissions from methanol production, for Ceramics in Heat Engines, 1990-2000: transmission, and use. see Mark DeLuchi et Results of a Worldwide Delphi Survey," Cen- al., "Transportation Fuels and the Green- ter for Transportation Research, Energy and houseEffect,"Universityof California. Eatvironmental Systems Division. Argonne Davis. December 1987. On ethanol, see "US- National Laboratory. Argonne, III., March BrazilianStudy SaysGasoholCreates 1988. 'Greenhouse Gases',"Christian Science Moni- 55. U.S.Senate, Committee on Com- tor,November 21, 1988. merce, Science and Transportation,Report on 59. OECD,Environmental Effects of Automo- Methanol and Alternative Fuels Promotion Act of tive Transport;DeLuchi et al., "Comparative 1987(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Analysis of Future Transportation Fuels." Printing Office, 1987); John Young, "Metha- On greenhouse gases. see DeLuchi et al., nol Moonshine,"World Watch(Washington, "Transportation Fuels and the Greenhouse D.C.), July/August 1988. Effect"; MacKenzie, "Relative Releases of 56. "Colorado Alternative Fuels Program Carbon Dioxide." to be Watched Carefully by Other States: 60. DeLuchi et al., "Comparative Analysis Herman,"International SolarEnergyIntelligence of Future Transportation Fuels"; DeLuchi et Report,July 28, 1987; "Air Quality Concerns al., "Transportation Fuels and the Green- Buoy Hopes for U.S. Makers of Alcohol house Effect." Fuels,"Oil & Gas Journal,February 9, 1987; Philip Shabecoff, "California Acts to Pro- 61. Peter Hoffmann, "Fueling the Future mote Switch From Gasoline to Methanol With Hydrogen,"Washington Post,Septem- Fuel,"New York Times,May 23, 1987; Califor- ber 6, 1987; Hoffmann, "Hydrogen: Power nia Energy Commission,AirResource to Burn?" Producing hydrogen from coal, Board, South Coast Air Quality Management however, would produce significant nitrogen District, "Report of the Three-Agency Meth- and sulfur oxide emissions, and more than anol Task Force," Sacramento, Calif., May double the CO, emissions, compared with 15, 1986. gasoline vehicles; DeLuchi et al., "Transpor- tation Fuels and the Greenhouse Effect." 57. De Luchi et al., "Comparative Analysis of Future Transportation Fuels"; California 62. Worldwide fatality figure based on In- Council for Environmental and Economic ternational Road Federation,World Road Sta-

21"n-.1,_ Holes (Chapter 6) (221) links 1981-1985 (Washington, D.C.: 1986). third, was subsidized; subsidies in the form of and on MVMA. Farts and Figures 87. municipal services could be as high as $60 63. Global average of land devoted to cars billion annually, Furthermore, auto commut- from Lester R. Brown and Jodi L. Jacobson. ers are frequently reimbursed by employers for travel expenses and enjoy free parking at The Future of Urbanization: Facing the Ecological their workplace. "14..ge Highway Subsidies and Economic Constraints, Worldwatch Paper .." National Association of Railroad Passengers 77 (Washington. D.C.: Worldwatch Institute. News, June 1985; Federzu Highway Adminis- May 1987): U.S. urban figure from Kirkpa- tration. Highway Statistics 1986 (Washington, trick Sale. Human Scale (New York: Coward. McCann, & Geoghegan, 1980), and from D.C.: U.S. Department of Transportation. Richard Register, "What is an Ecocity ?" 1987); Stanley Hart, "Huge City Subsidies for Autos, Trucks," California Transit, July/ Earth island Journal, Fall 1987. September 1986. Per-car and per-gallon sub- 64. Peter W.G. Newman and Jeffrey R. sidy estimates are from Stanley Hart. Sierra Kenworthy. "The Use and Abuse of Driving Club, San Francisco. Calif., private commu- Cycle Research; Clarifying the Relationship nication, April 12, 1988. Between Traffic Congestion. Energy and 69. In the United Statcs in 1984, urban rail Emissions," Transportation Quarterly. October and bus transit systems used 20 percent less 1984; Charles Lockwood and Christopher B. energy per passenger mile than the average Leinberger, "Los Angeles Comes of Age," car on the road, Amtrak used 40 percent less Atlantic Monthly, January 1988; California energy, and intercity buses used less than Commission quoted in Robert Lindsay, "Cal- one third as much energy. If public transit ifornia Now Sees Cars as a Threat." New York systems were used to fuller capacity. the ad- Times. April 5, 1988. vantages would increase further. Holcomb et 65. Sale. Human Scale; Peter Newman and al.. Transportation Energy Data Book. On road Jeffrey Kenworthy. "Gasoline Consumption space requirements, see Frederick C. Dunbar and CitiesA Comparison of U.S. Cities and Richard T. Rapp, "Urban Transport With a Global Survey and Some Implica- Economics;Analysisfor Development tions," Transport Research Paper 8/87, Banks." presented at First Annual Meeting. School of Environmental and Life Sciences, InternationalMassTransitAssociation, Murdoch University. Australia; Peter New- Washington, D.C., February 16-17, 1986. man and Jeffrey Kenworthy, "Transport and 70. Citizens for Better Transit, "Multi- Urban Form in Thirty-Two of the World's DestinationalTransit."Portland,Ore.. Principal Cities," Paper for International mimeographed, 1977. Symposium on Transport, Communication and Urban Form. Monash University, Aus- 71. Michael A. Replogle, Bicycles and Public tralia, August 24-26, 1987. Transportation: New Links to Suburban Transit Markets, 2nd ed. (Washington, D.C.: The Bi- 66. lam Sessions," U.S. News and World cycle Federation, 1988). Report, September 7, 1987; Christopher B. Leinberger and Charles Lockwood, "How 72. Juri Pill, "Land Development: The Business is Reshaping America," Atlantic Latest Panacea for Transit?" .Vlass Transit, January/February 1988. Monthly, October 1986. 73. Michael Replogle, "Sustainable 67, WorldwatchInstitute.basedon Transportation Strategies for Third World MVMA, Facts and Figures 87. Development," prepared for session on 68. In the United States. some $17 billion Human-Powered Transportation and Trans- in contributions to 1986 highway construc- portation Planning for Developing Coun- tion and maintenance funds. or almost one tries, Transport Research Board 1988 An-

?6 6 (222) Notes (Chalmers 6and 7) nual Meeting, National Research Council, 3. Renee Sabatier, Blaming Others: Prejudice. Washington. D.C. Race and Worldwide AIDS (Philadelphia: New 74. The World Bank accounts for by far Society Publishers, for Panos Institute in as- the largest share of international develop- sociation with Norwegian Red Cross, 1988). ment banks' spending on transportation pro- 4. Observations about control from Dr. jects; Dunbar and Rapp, "Urban Transport Malcolm Potts, "Preparing for the Battle," Economics: Analysis forDevelopment People (London), Vol 14, No. 4, 1987; incu- Banks." Replogle, "Sustainable Transporta- bation period from Roy M. Anderson and tion Strategies." Robert M. May, "Epidemiological Parame- 75. Brown and Jacobson, The Future of Cr- ters of HIV Transmission." Nature, June 9, ban/union, 1988; observation about progression to AIDS from Institute of Medicine, National 76. V. Sett Pendakur, "Formal and Infor- Academy of Sciences, Confronting AIM Up- mal Urban Transport in Asia," CI'S° Journal. dale 1988 (Washington. D.C.: National Acad- December1987;Replogle."Sustainable emy Press, 1988). Transportation Strategies." 77. Replogle, "Sustainable Transporta- 5. World Health Organization (WHO), tion Strategies"; Pendakur, "Urban Trans- "Global Programme On AIDS: Progress Re- port in Asia." port Number 3," Geneva, May 1988; role of prostitutes from Don C. Des Jarlais et al, 78. Replogle. "Sustainable Transporta- "HIV Infection and Intravenous Drug Use.. tion Strategies"; Neal R. Peirce, "China's Critical Issues in Transmission Dynamics, Bike Boom Backward?" a:Ha DOS, March 9, Infection Outcomes, and Prevention," Re- 1988; Marcia D. Lowe, "Pedaling Into the views of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 10, No. 1, Future," World Watch (Washington. D.C.). 1988, and from Bruce Lambert, "AIDS July /August 1988. Among Prostitutes Not as Prevalent as Be- 79. Andre Got a, Ecology as Politics (Boston: lieved, Studies Show," New York Times, Sep- South End Press. 1980). tember 20, 1988. 6. Until recently, researchers commonly Chapter 7. Responding to AIDS cited 5-20 percent of sexually active adults infected in major urban areas of East and 1. Smoking-related deaths from William Central Africa; see Jonathan M. Mann et al., U. Chandler. Banishing Tobago. Worldwatch "The International Epidemiology of AIDS," Paper 68 (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch In- Scientific American, October 1988. New data stitute. January 1986); diarrhea figure from from urban centers in the Kagera region of Katrina Galway et al., Child Survival: Risks and Tanzania reveal 32.8 percent of adults (aged The Road to Health (Columbia, Md.: Institute 15-54) infected; see J. Killewo et al., "The for Resource Development/Westinghouse, Epidemiology of HIV-1 Infection in the Kag- 1987): tuberculosis figure from G. Siutkin et era Region of Tanzania," abstract of paper al., "Effect of AIDS on the Tuberculosis Prob- presented at the Third International Confer- lem and Programmes and Priorities for Con- ence on AIDS and Associated Cancers in trol and Research," abstract of paper pre- Africa, Arusha, Tanzania, September 14-16, sented at the IV International Conference on 1988 (hereinafter cited as Arusha Confer- AIDS, Stockholm, Sweden,June 12-16, 1988 ence). Prostitute observation from Peter Piot (hereinafter cited as Stockholm Conference). and Michel Carat', ''Epidemiological and 2. Quotefrom"Interview:Jonathan Sociological Aspects of HIV-infection in De- Mann." AIDS Patient Care (New York), June veloping Countries," British Medical Bulletin, 1988. Vol. 44, No. 1, 1988.

2;:i 7 Moe (Chapter 7) ( 223 ) 7. Dr. Jonathan Mann, "Global AIDS; A reau for Africa, U.S. Agency for International Status Report," Testimony before the Presi- Development (AID). Washington, D.C., O- dential Commission on the Human Im- vate communication. October 10. 1988. munodeficiency Virus Epidemic (hereinafter 14. The percentage of European cases in- cited as Presidential Commission), April 18, volving drug injection has leveled of in 1988 1988. and includes cases where there are risk 8. Nancy S. Padian, "Heterosexual Trans- behaviors in addition to IV drug use; see Don mission of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syn- C. Des Jarlais, "HIV Infection Among Per- drome: International Perspectives and Na- sons Who Inject Illicit Drugs: Problems and tionalProjections," Reviewsof Infectious Prospects." paper presented at Stockholm Diseases. September/October 1987; Sabatier, Conference. Blaming Others. 15. Report ofthe Presidential Commission on the 9.10. Ndinya-Achola et al., "Co-Factors Human Immunodeficiency rims Epidemic (Wash- in Male-Female Transmission of HIV," ab- ington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Of- stract of paper presented at Arusha Confer- fice, 1988). ence; Mann et al.. "International Epidemi- 16. GasesinAmerican children from ology of AIDS": Michael Specter. "Herpes James W. Curran et al.. "Epidemiology of Found to Increase Susceptibility to AIDS HIV Infection and AIDS in the United Virus Infection," Washington Post. June 16. States" Science. February 5, 1988: IV drug 1988; D. Zagury et al., "Long Term Cultures link to cases in American women from Don- of HTLV-III-infected T-cells: A Model of Cy- ald R. Hopkins. "Aids in Minority Popula- topathology of T-cell Depletion in AIDS." tions in the United States," Public Health Re- Science. February 21. 1986. ports, November/December 1987; prosti- 10. WHO computer printout and Mann et tutes' IV drug link from Dr. June E. Osborn. al., "International Epidemiology of AIDS." "Aids: Politics and Science." New England 11. Dr. James Chin. Chief. AIDS Surveil- Journal of Medicine. February 18, 1988. lance Unit, WHO, Geneva, private communi- 17.J.W. Pape et al., "Epidemiology of cations, September 27 and October 21, 1988. AIDS inHaiti (1979-1987)." Testimony 12, U.S. estimate from William L. Hey- before Presidential Commission, April 18, ward and James W. Curran, "The Epidemi- 1988. ology of AIDS in the U.S.." Scientific American, 18. PAHO, "Epidemiology of AIDS in the October 1988; European estimate from J.B. Americas"; C. Bartholomew et al., "Transi- Brunet, "Aids and HIV Infection in Europe." tion From Homosexual to Heterosexual abstract of paper presented at Stockholm AIDS in Trinidad and Tobago," abstract of Conference; Latin American estimate from paper presented at Arusha Conference; ob- Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), servations about Dominican Republic, Hon- "The Epidemiology of AIDS in the Ameri- duras, Equador. Brazil. and Mexico from cas," Testimony before Presidential Com- Renee Sabatier. AIDS and the Third World. mission, April 18, 1988; Asian estimate from Panos Dossier 1 (Philadephia: New Society Chin, private communication. Publishers, for Panos Institute. 1988). 13. Rural outbreaks from Dr. Samuel lk- 19. Figures on Haiti, Mexico, and Rwanda waras Okware. "Towards a National AIDS- from Ruth Leger Sivard. World Military and Control Program in Uganda," The Western Socialexpenditures1987-88 (Washington, Journal of Medicine, December 1987, and from D.C.: World Priorities, 1987): Swedish figure William Lyerly, Jr.. AIDS Coordinator, Bu- refers to per capita health spending in 1984, (224) Notes (Chapter 7) as cited in ibid.; U.S. number refers to 1986 25. Slutkin et al., "Effect of AIDS on the spending. from National Center for Health Tuberculosis Problem and Programmes." Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and 26. Sabatier, AIDS and the Third World; R. Human Services. Health, United States 1987 Colebunders et al, "HIV Infection in Pa- (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- tients with Tuberculosis in Kinshasa, Zaire," ing Office, 1988); United Nations Children's abstract of paper presented at Arusha Con- Fund (UNICEF), State of the World's Children ference. 1988 (New York: Oxford University Press for UNICEF, 1988). 27. United Nations. Mortality sChildren Under Age 5: World Estimates and . rojections. 20. Hesio Cordeiro et al., "Medical Costs 1950-2025 (New York: 1988). of HIV and AIDS in Brazil." paper presented 28. Figures on pregnant women from Car- at the First International Conference on the swell, "Impact of AIDS in the Developing Global Impact of AIDS. London, March World"; mother-to-child infection rate from 8-10, 1988 (hereinafter cited as London T. Manzila et al., "Perinatal HIV Transmis- Conference); Ren6e Sabatier, "The Global sion in Two African Hospitals: One Year Fol- Costs of AIDS." The Futurist. November/De- low-Up," abstract of paper presented at Aru- cember 1987. sha Conference; impact on child survival 21. AZT costs from Fred J. Hettinger, from Mann et at., "International Epidemi- "Forecasting the Personal Medical Care ology of AIDS," and from Rodolfo A. Bula- Costs of AIDS from 1988 Through 1991," tao,"Initial Investigation of the Demo- Public Health Reports. May/June 1988; anemia graphic Impact of AIDS in One African Country" (draft), World Bank, Washington, observation from Sabatier. AIDS and the Third D.C., unpublished, June 15, 1987. World. 29. John Botigaarts, "Modeling the De- 22. Relationship between GNP and cost of mographic Impact of AIDS in Africa," paper treatment from Mead Over et al., "The Di- presented at the Annual Meeting of the rect and Indirect Cost of HIV Infection in American Association for the Advancement Developing Countries: The Cases of Zaire of Science. Boston, February 11-15. 1988; and Tanzania," paper presented at Stock- Philip J. Hilts, "Aids Impact on Population." holm Conference; Mama Yemo hospital ex- Washington Post. May 24, 1988. ample from Thomas C. Quinn, "AIDS in Africa: An Epidemiologic Paradigm," Science, 30. Carswell, "Impact of AIDS in the De- November 21, 1986; observation about qual- veloping World." ity of care from Sabatier, AIDS and the Third 3I. "Mining Companies Face Increasing Ill'orld Burden," New Scientist, March 17, 1988; Cop- per Belt study from Renke Sabatier, .ADS and 23. Hospital bed rates from Mann et al.. the Third World, 2nd ed. (London; Panos Insti- "International Epidemiology of AIDS," and tute, 1987). from Sabatier, AIDS and the Third World; patient discharge from j, Wilson Carswell, "Im- 32. Indirect costs from Over, "Direct and pact of AIDS in the Developing World," Brit- Indirect Cost of HIV Infection," and from ish Medical Bulletin, Vol. 44, No. I, 1988, and David E. Bloom and Geoffrey Carliner, "The from Raisa Scriabine-Smith, unpublished Economic Impact of AIDS in the United manuscript prepared for the Hudson Insti- States," Science, February 5, 1988. tute, Indianapolis. Ind., 1988. 33. Over. "Direct and Indirect Cost of 24. Over et al., "Direct and Indirect Cost HIV Infection," of HIV Infection." 34. Ibid.

229 s.-

Notes (Chapter 7) (225) 35. F. Davachi et al., "Economic Impact Impact of Mandatory Reporting of HIV on Families of Children with AIDS in Kin- Seropositive Persons in South Carolina," ab- shasa, Zaire," paper presented at London stract of paper presented at the Stockholm Conference. Conference; for evidence that voluntary and anonymous testing and partner tracing are 36. Sharon Kingman and Steve Conner. successful, see Nancy Padian et al., "Partner "The Answer is Still a Condom," New Scien- Notification as a Means to Prevent Further tist. June 23, 1988; Marilyn Chase, "AIDS HIV Transmission." M.L. Rekart, "A Modi- Virus in Infected People Mutates At a Dizzy- fied System of Contact Tracing for HIV ing Rate. Two Studies Show," Wall Street Jour- SeropositivesA Year's Results," and J.E. nal, August 4. 1988. Kristoffersen. "Case Contact Tracing and 37. Dr. Jeffrey Harris, AIDS Coordinator. Testing in HIV Infection," all abstracts of AID, Washington. D.C., private communica- papers presented at Stockholm Conference; tion, October 8. 1988. see also Institute of Medicine, Confronting 38. Sabatier, AIDS and the Third World ABA Update 1988. (1988). 43. Sabatier. AIDS and the Third World (1988). 39. European booklet mailings from Scria- bine-Smith. unpublished manuscript; Cana- 44. Marshall H. Becker and Jill G. Joseph. dian poll from a study conducted by the Al- "Aids and Behavioral Change to Reduce berta provincial government, as cited in Risk; A Review." American Journal of Public Sabatier. AIDS and the Third World (1988); Health, April 1988; Office of Technology As- American data from the National Health In- sessment (OTA), U.S. Congress, How Effective terview Survey of August 1987. as cited in is 41DS Education? Staff Paper, Washington. Institute of Medicine, Confronting AIDS, Up- D.C.. May 1988; Robert R. Stempel and An- date 1988. drew R. Moss. "Changes in Sexual Behavior By Gay Men in Response to AIDS," abstract 40. Steve Conner and Sharon Kingman, of paper presented at Stockholm Confer- "The Trouble with Testing," New Scientist, January 28, 1988: number of countries with ence. travel restrictions from the Panos Institute. 45. Rates in San Francisco from Dr. War- as cited in "AIDS Said to Claim a Victim a ren Winklestein. School of Public Health, Minute," Washington Post,September 28, University of California. Berkeley. private 1988. communication, September 13.1988: M. Paalman et al., "Condom Promotion in the 41. Alan M. Brandt, "AIDS in Historical Netherlands: Evaluation," abstract of paper Perspective: Four Lessons from the History presented at Stockholm Conference; Finland of STDs." American Journal of Public Health, information from S. Valle. "The Occurrence April 1988; Sandra G. Boodman, "Premarital of STD's in a Cohort of Homosexual Men AIDS Testing Annoying Many in Illinois," Prior To and After Repeated Personal Coun- Washington Post, July 30, 1988. selling," abstract of paper presented at 42. Hungarian testing information from Stockholm Conference; C.A. Came et al., Radio Free Europe, February 23, 1987, as "Prevalence of Antibodies to Human Im- cited in Scriabine-Smith. unpublished manu- munodeficiency Virus. Gonorrhoea Rates, script; Bill Keller. "New Soviet Law Makes and Changed Sexual Behavior in Homosex- AIDS Testing Mandatory," New York Times, ual Men in London," The Lancet, March 21. August 27, 1987; "Mandatory AIDS Test on 1987; G. von Krogh et al.. "Declining Inci- Basis 'of Slight Suspicion' in Bavaria," Na- dence of Syphilis Among Homosexual Men ture, June 10, 1988; Wayne D. Johnson. "The in Stockholm." The Lancet. October 18, 1986.

240 (226) Notes (Chapter 7) as cited in the Scriabine-Smith, unpublished change in Amsterdam." abstract of paper manuscript; Asmus Poulsen and Susanne Ull- presented at Stockholm Conference; decline man, "AIDS-Induced Decline of Incidence of in Dutch drug users from Lefton, "Nations Syphilis in Denmark."Aaa Dermatarer- Report." nereologica.Vol. 65, No. 6. 1985. as cited in 51. OTA.How Effective is AIDS Education?; ibid. three fourths figure from Des Jarlais et al., 46. R.R. Stempel et al.. "Changes in Sex- "HIV Infection and Intravenous Drug Use." ual Behavior by Gay Men in Response to AIDS," R. Stall et al., "Intravenous Drug 52. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), "Weekly Surveillance Report." Atlanta. Ga.. Use, the Combination of Drugs and Sexual August 1. 1988; 19 percent figure from Mar- Activity and HIV Infection Among Gay and Bisexual Men: The San Francisco Men's tha F. Rogers and Walter W. Williams. "Aids Health Study." and M. Miller et al., "Rela- in Blacks and Hispanics: Implications for Pre- tionships Between Knowledge About AIDS vention,"IssuesinScience and Technology. Risk and Actual Risk Behaviour in a Sample Spring 1987: rates for children and women of I-lomosexual Men." all abstracts of papers from Dr. James Mason. Opening Address of presented at Stockholm Conference; Valle. the National Conference on the Prevention "The Occurrence of STD's in a Cohort of of HIV Infcction and AIDS Among Racial Homosexual Men Prior To and After Re- and Ethnic Minorities in the United States. peated Personal Counselling.":..eealso Washington. D.C., August 15, 1988. OTA,How Effective is AIDS Education?and C. 53. "Needle Sharing and AIDS in Minori- Becker et al., "Gay Male Sexual Behavior ties,"Journal of the American Aledical Association. Change in a Low-Incidence Area for AIDS." September 18, 1987: Rogers and Williams, abstract of paper presented at Stockholm "Aids in Blacks and Hispanics"; black HIV Conference. infection outside cities from Lytt I. Gardner 47. Treatment capacity for addicts from et al., "Race Specific Trend Anaysis of HIV Dr. Roy Pickens. Associate Director for Antibody Prevalence in the United States," AIDS. National Institute on Drug Abuse. abstract of paper presented at Stockholm Rockville, Md., private communication. Au- Conference. gust 23, 1988; coupon data from Joyce F. 54. "CDC Spends Over $30 Million to Jackson. AIDS Community Support Unit, Prevent HIV Infection Among Minorities at New Jersey Department of Health, Testi- Risk," press release from CDC. Atlanta. Ga., mony before Presidential Commission. De- September 6. 1988; fiscal year 1989 funding cember 18. 1987. information from Debbie Mathis, Budget 48. OTA,How Effective is AIDS Education? Office. CDC, Atlanta. Ga., private communication. October 21. 1988. 49. Pilot programs have been approved in New York City and Portland. Oregon, ac- 55. WHO, "Global Programme on AIDS: cording to Don C. Des Jarlais. New York Proposed Programme & Budget for 1989," State Division of Substance Abuse Services, Geneva. September 1988. private communication. August 18, 1988. 56. Tom Natter. Public Information Of- 50. Doug Lefton, "Nations Report on ficer, WHO, Geneva. December 12, 1988: Needle Distribution,"American Medical News, sub-Saharan countries from William Lyerly, March 4, 1988; "European Countries De- Jr. et al., 'Impact of Epidemiology and De- velop Programs to Fight AIDS."AIDS Patient mographic Patterns on Regional HIV/AIDS Care(New York). June 1988; E.C. Buning. Control Strategies in Africa," abstract of "The Evaluation of the Needle/Syringe Ex- paper presented at Arusha Conference.

241 Notes (Chapter 7) (227) 57. "Kenyans Respond to Red Cross N.C., undated; B. Auvert et al., "Character- Alert," People (London), Vol. 14, No. 4, 1987; istics of the HIV Infection in Kinshasa as De- I Susan Allen et al., "AIDS Education in Urban termined By Compute.. Simulation," abstract Rwanda: Change In Knowledge and Atti- of paper presented at London Conference. tudes From 1986 to 1987," abstract of paper 62. Chin. private communication. presented at Stockholm Conference; Edward C. Green, "AIDS and Condoms in the Do- 63. Ghana data from Sharon Weir, Pro- minican Republic: Evaluation of an AIDS Ed- gram Coordinator of AIDSTECH, FIII. Re- ucation Program," paper prestted at the search Triangle Park. N.C., private commu- Annual Meeting of the American Association nication, August 29, 1988 (based on a pilot for the Advancement of Science. Boston, project conducted by PHI among 72 prosti- February 11, 1988. tutes between June 1987 and January 1988); al., 58. Guatemala and Mexico examples from Francis Plummer et "Durability of Changed Sexual Behavior in Nairobi Prosti- KathrynCarovano, AIDSCOMproject. Washington, D.C., private communication, tutes: Increasing Use of Condoms," and E. August 30, 1988; Uganda example from Antonio De Moya and Ernesto Guerrero, "The Breaking of the Condom Use Taboo in Robin Le Mare. Ugandan desk officer, Action AID, London, U.K., private communication. the Dominican Republic," abstracts of pa- September 16, 1988. pers presented at Stockholm Conference. 59. Infection rates from Quinn, "AIDS in 64. In mid-1988 the total population in Africa''; percentage of cases attributable to Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, AIDS from Piot and C,aratl, "Epidemiologi- Kenya. Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, cal and Sociological Aspects of HIV-infec- and Zambia was an estimated 122.1 million. tion." according to the Population Reference Bu- reau, Washington, D.C. In these nine coun- 60. "HIV Screening in the Americas." tries, women of childbearing age (15-49) PAHO, Washington,D.C..unpublished constitute on average 22.5 percent of the mimeograph, January 19. 1988; "Strategy total population, according to age distribu- for Countrywide Screening of Blood Donors tions available in United Nations,it Demo- in Zambia," abstract of paper presented at graphic Estimates and Projections, 1950-2025 Stockholm Conference; Zimbabwe from "A (New York: 1988). Thus the total number of Specially Prepared Update of the Panos Dos- people needing condoms is 27.5 million. sier 'AIDS in the Third World'," London, Condoms cost about 4.40 apiece and an aver- unpublished mimeograph. October 1987; age couple uses 100-144 per year, according Mexico from Dr. Gonzales Pacheco, PAHO. to Carl Hemmer, Chief of Commodity and Washington, D.C., private communication. Program Support Division, AID, Washing- August 15. 1988; new blood tests from T. C. ton. D.C.. private communication. October Quinn et al., "A Rapid Enzyme Immunoassay 12. 1988. Shipping adds 20 percent to cost for the Detection of Antibodies to HIV-1 and and subsidizing their sale through commer- HIV-2," and from J. P. Galvin et al., "HIV- cial channels adds another 70 percent. mak- CHEKA Sensitive. Rapid, Manual Test for ing total costs roughly 812 per couple, ac- the Detection of HIV Antibodies." abstracts cording to Jerald Bailey, Deputy Division of papers presented at Arusha Conference. Chief of Research, Office of Population, AID, 61. Malcolm Potts, "The imperative Inter- Washington. D.C., private communication, vention: Targeting AIDS Control Activities October 12, 1988. Community-based distri- Toward High-Risk Populations," unpub- bution or programs that actively promoted lished discussion paper from Family Health condom use through education, advertising, International (FHI), Research Triangle Park, and so on would cost considerably more.

24 2 (228) Notes (Chapters 7 and 8) 65. W. Parker Mauldin and Sheldon J. 73. Bill Keller. "New Soviet Law Makes Segal, Prevalence of Contraceptive Use in Develop- AIDS Testing Mandatory." New York Times, ing Countries.. A Chart Book (New York: Rocke- August 27, 1987. feller Foundation. 1986); condom use in Africa applies to married women of reproductive 74. BulgariafromSophiaMiskiewicz, age, from John W. Townsend and Luis Varela, "AIDS in Eastern Europe and the Soviet The Population Council, Testimony before Union," Radio Free Europe Research Report Presidential Commission. April 18, 1988. No. 24. February 23. 1987; registration of addicts from United Press International. B 66. Estimate of funding available for AIDS Wire, Moscow Bureau, "Soviet Scientist Says control in developing countries from Harris. 'Positive Results' in AIDS Research," Febru- private communication. No one has yet com- ary11.1987; Poland from Radio Free piled data on funds available for AIDS control in the Third World so this number is Europe Research Report. Poland No. 3. Feb- ruary 19, 1986; all broadcasts cited in Scria- necessarily a ballpark estimate. WHO's budget for AIDS control in 1988 was $66 million bine-Smith, unpublished manuscript. and AID gave an additional $15 million in 75. Bloom and Carliner, "Economic Im- bilateral aid. World military expenditure in pact of AIDS in the United States." 1987 from Sivard, World Alifitary and Social 76. New York hospital bed data from Paul Expenditures, 1987-88. S. Jellinek. "Case-Managing AIDS." Issues in 67. Harvey V. Fineberg, "The Social Di- Science and Technology, Summer 1988; San mensions of AIDS," Scientific American, Octo- Francisco funds for AIDS from Mona J. Rowe ber 1988. and Caitlin C. Ryan, "Comparing State-Only 68. Kenneth Presitt, "AIDS in Africa: The Expenditure for AIDS," American Journal of Triple Disaster," in Norman Miller and Rich- Public Health, April 1988; New York data ard C. Rockwell, eds., AIDS In Africa: The So- from Robert Blake, Budget Officer, New cial and Policy Impact (Lewiston, N.Y.: The York City Budget Office, private communica- Edwin Mellen Press. 1988). tion, September 13. 1988; cost per resident 69. Clare Ansberry, "AIDS, Stirring Panic from Bloom and Carlin er, "Economic Impact and Prejudice, Tests the Nation's Charac- of AIDS in the United States." ter," Wall Street Journal, Noveni:der. 13, 1987; 77. Bloom and Carliner. "Economic Im- Colombian example from Sarita Kendall. pact of AIDS in the United States"; P.S. Arno "Latin American Conference increases AIDS and R.G. Hughes. "Local Policy Response to Awareness." AIDS Watch No. 1, 1988, sup- the AIDS Epidemic: New York and San Fran- plement to People (London). cisco," New York Stam Journal of Medicine, May 70. For an excellent discussion of these is- 1987; Robert T. Chen et al. "Hospital Utili- sues. see Sabatier, Blaming Others. zation by Persons with AIDS in San Fran- 71. DrJonathanMann,"WorldwideEpide- cisco, January 1984-June 1987," abstract of miology of AIDS." Address to London Confer- paper presented at Stockholm Conference; ence; "London Declaration on AIDS Preven- Ian Douglas Campbell, ''AIDS Care and Pre- tion," World Summit of Ministers of Health vention in a Zambian Rural Community," on Programmes for AIDS Prevention. Jan- paper presented at London Conference. uary 28, 1988; Report of Presidential Commission. 72. Fineberg."SocialDimensionsof Chapter 8. Enhancing Global Security AIDS"; Ghana example from "Family Plan- ners Define Their Role in Preventing Viral 1. Carolyn Stephenson, "Alternative In- Spread," New Scientist, July 21, 1988. ternational Security Systems: An Introduc-

243 t

Notes (Chapter 8) (229) tion," in Carolyn Stephenson, ed., Alternative 12. Lloyd Jeffry Dumas, Thr Overburdened Methods for International Security(Lanham, Economy (Berkeley, Calif,: University of Cali- Md.: University Press of America, 1982), fornia Press, 1986). 2. Gene Sharp. Making Europe Unconquer- 13. Sivard, World Military and Social Expen- able: The Potential of Civilian-Based Deterrence ditures 1987-88; Eisenhower quote is from and Defense (Cambridge, Mass.; Ballinger, his address to the American Society of News- 1985), paper Editors, Washington,D.C.,April 3. Rita Tullberg, "World Military Expen- 1953, ditures," Bulletin of Peace Proposals, Vol. 17, 14. Rita Tullberg, "Military-Related Debt No. 3-4. 1986; Ruth Leger Sivard, World Mili- in Non-Oil Developing Countries, 1972-82," tary and Social Expenditures 1987-88 (Washing- Bulletin of Peace Proposals, Vol. 17, No. 3-4, ton, D.C: World Priorities, 1988). 1986; Michael Brzoska and Thomas ()Filson, 4, Sivard. World Military and Social Expendi- "The Future of Arms Transfers: The Chang- tures 1987-88. On arms production capabili- ing Pattern," Bulletin of Peace Proposals. Vol. ties, see U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament 16, No. 2, 1985; Lloyd.). Dumas, "Economic Agency. World Military Expenditures and Arms Conversion: The Critical Link," Bulletin of Transfers 1987 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Gov- Peace Proposals, VW. 19. No. 1, 1988. ernment Printing Office, 1988). 15. Private communication, February 3, 5, Sivard. World Military and Social Expendi- 1988. tures 1987-88. 16. Cumulative military spending from 6, Ibid. U.S. Department of Defense, National Defense 7. Ibid,; Miroslav Nincic, How War Might Budget Estimates for FY 1988/1989 (Washing- Spread to Europe (Philadelphia: Taylor and ton, D.C.: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Francis, 1985). Defense (Comptroller), 1987); Seymour Mel- man. "An Economic Alternative to the Arms 8. More than half the civilian deaths in Race: Conversion from Military to Civilian current hostilities, as in Afghanistan, Ethio- Economy," Presentation at Rayburn House pia, Mozambique, and the Sudan, resulted Office Building, Washington. D.C.. Novem- from war-related famine; Sivard, World Mili- ber 1986. tary and Social Expenditures 1987-88. Boul ding quote in Greg Mitchell, "Real Security. What 17. Mary Acland-Hood."MilitaryRe- Is It? How Can We Get It?" Nuclear Times, search and Development," Bulletin of Peace May/June 1986. Proposals. Vol. 17, No. 3-4, 1986; Dumas, The 9, Soedjatmoko. "Patterns of Armed Con- Overburdened Economy. flict in the Third World,' Alternatives, Vol. 10, 18. Acland-Hood, "Military Research and No. 4, 1985; Center for Defense Information, Development"; Dumas, TheOverburdened "A World At War-1983," The Defense Moni- Economy;UlrichAlbrecht,"Riistungsfor- tor, Vol. 12, No. 1. 1983. schung und Dritte Welt," Inforrnationsdiensi 10. Mohammed Ayoob, "The Iran-Iraq Wissensehaft und Frieclen, December 1984/Jan- War and Regional Security in the Persian uary 1985. Gulf," Alternatives, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1985. 19. Dumas, The Overburdened Economy. 11. Robert C. Johansen, "Toward a De- 20. Ibid. pendable Peace: A Proposal for an Appropri- ate Security System," World Policy Paper No. 21. Simon Ramo, America's Technology Slip 8 (New York: World Policy Institute, 1983). (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1980).

244 (230) Notes (Chapter 8) 22. David Noble, Forces of Production: A So. ton, D.C. : World Resources Institute, 1988); no! History of Automation (New York: Oxford "Where Dams Can Cause Wars," Economist, University Press, 1986). July 18, 1987; "Canadian Ban Covers Water Diversions to US," Journal of Commerce, No- 23. Dumas, Tort Overburdened Economy. vember 6, 1987; John Tagliabue, "The Rhine 24. Michael Dee Odell, .4 411rlitary Dollar Struggles to Survive," New York Times, Febru- Really Is Different The Economic Impacts of Mili- ary 15, 1987; Fernando Ortiz Monasterio, tary Spending Reconsidered (Lansing, Mich.: "Confronting Environmental Degradation; Employment Research Associate... 1988). A Problem Without Borders," Ceres, Septem- ber 1987; "West Germans Look For Ways to 25. Dumas, The Overburdened Economy. Clean Elbe River, Seek Cooperation With 26. Lloyd J. Dumas, "University Research, East Germany, Czechoslovakia," Multina- Industrial Innovation, and the Pentagon," in tional Environmental Outlook, September 15, John Tirman, ed., Alilitarization of High Tech- 1988. nology (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1984); 33. Narul Huda, "Bangladesh Blames Economic Report of the President (Washington, Neighbors for its Floods," Panoscope (Lon- D.C.: Office, U.S. Government Printing don), December 1987. 1988); Mario Pianta, New Technologies Across the Atlantic: U.S. Leadership or European Auton- 34. Philip P. Micklin, "Desiccation of the omy? (London: Wheatsheaf Books, 1988). Arai Sea: A Water Management Disaster in the Soviet Union," Science, September 2, 27. Dumas, TheOverburdenedEconomy; 1988; James Critchlow, "Aral Sea Vanishes Pianta, Sew Technologies Across the .4dantic. as Cotton Fields Expand" (letter to the edi- 28. Military expenditure from Executive tor), New Thrk Times, September 25, 1988, Office of the President, Office of Manage- 35. Emanuel Somers,"Transboundary ment and Budget, Historical Tabks: Budget of Pollution and Environmental Health," Envi- the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 1989 (Wash- ronment, June 1987. ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Of- fice, 1988); U.S. pollution abatement figures 36. Michael Weisskopf, "'Toxic Clouds' from Survey of Current Business, May 1988. Can Carry Pollutants Far and Wide," Wash- ington Post,March ld, 1988; Monasterio, 29. Wendell Berry, Home Economics (San "Confronting Environmental Degradation." Francisco: North Point Press, 1987). 37, Worldwatch Institute, calculated from 30. World Commission on Environment U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency, and Development, Our Common Future (New Regulatory Impact Analysis, Vol. 1 (Washing- York: Oxford University Press, 1987). ton, D.C.: 1987), and from Matthew Wald, 31. "Environment and Conflict," Earth- "Fighting the Greenhouse Effect," New York scan Briefing Document 40, International In- Times, August 28, 1988. stitute for Environment and Development, 38. Christopher Flavin, Reassessing Nut ear London, November 1984. Power: The Fallout From Chernobyl, Worldwatch 32. Ghali quote from Lloyd Timberlake, Paper No. 75 (Washington, D.C.: World- Africa in Crisis: The Causes, the Cures of Environ- watch Institute, March 1987): "Czech/Aus- mental Bankruptcy (London: International In- trian Nuclear Disagreement," Financial Times stitute for Environment and Development, European Energy Economist, July 1, 1988; "Chi- 1985). For description of internationa water lean Group Opposes Argentine Nuclear disputes, see "Environment and Conflict," Waste Dump," Ecoforum, June 1988. Earthscan; Norman Myers, Not Far Afield: U.S. 39. Patrick Smith with Alan George, "The Interests and the Global Environment (Washing- Dumping Grounds," South, August 1988.

245 Notes (Chapter 8) (23!) 40. Tagliabue, "The Rhine Struggles to tion to Disarmament," Briefing Paper No. 2, Survive." National Commission for Economic Conver- sion and Disarmament, Washington, D.C.. 41. Robert C. Johansen, "The Failure of May 1988, and Lawrence D. Weiler, "Gen- Arms Control," Sojourners, March 1981: Jo- eral Disarmament Proposals." Amu Control hansen, "Toward a Dependable Peace." Today. July/August 1986. 42. Robert S. Norris et al., "START and 48. Marcus Raskin, "Draft Treaty for a Strategic Modernization," Nuclear Weapons Comprehensive Prop am for Common Secu- Databook Working Papers 87-2 (Washington, rity and General Disarmament," Institute for D.C.: Natural Resources Defense Council, Policy Studies, Washington, D.C., July 1986. 1987). 49. Cost estimate is reported in Robert C. 43. For a more detailed discussion of inde- Johansen, "The Reagan Administration and pendent initiatives, see Robert C. Johanscn, the U.N.; The Costs of Unilateralism," World Toward an Alternative Security System. World Policy Journal, Fall 1986. Policy Paper No. 24 (New York: World Policy Institute. 1983); Mark Sommer and Gordon 50. John Tirman, "International Monitor- Feller." Independent Initiatives':Better ing for Peace," Issues in Science and Technology, Than Arms Control?" New Options, October Summer 1988; Owen Thomas, "Nations 27, 1986. Keep an Extra Eye on Each Other," Christian Science Monitor, September 28, 1988. For text 44. Michael G. Renner. "Disarming Impli- of Rep. Mrazek's bill, see H.R. 4036, "The cations of the INF Treaty," World Watch International Security and Satellite Monitor- (Washington,D.C.),March/April1988; ing Act of 1988," introduced on February 29. Philip Taubman, "Soviet Proposes Arctic 1988. The bill will be reintroduced in the Peace Zone," New York Times, October 2. next Congress, and hearings are planned for 1987. 1989; personal communication with Robert 45. For a detailed presentation of these Katula, Special Assistant to Robert Mrazek, proposals, see the set of articles on "Nonof- October 3, 1988. fensive Defense" in Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. 51. Johansen. "The Reagan Administra- September 1988. tion and the U.N."; "The Requirements for 46. Hal Harvey, "Defense Without Ag- Stable Coexistence in United States-Soviet gression," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Septem- Relations," Congressional Record, May 9, 1988: ber 1988; Bernard E. Trainor, "Soviet Arms Jonathan Steele."Superpowers: Beyond Doctrine in Flux: An Emphasis on the De- Arms Control," END. Journal of European Nu- fense," New York Times, March 7, 1988: Dmi- clearDisarmament, Summer 1988.Philip tri Yazoy. "The Soviet Proposal for Euro- Taubman, "Gorbachev OffersDisputed pean Security." Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Radar for Peaceful Exploration of Space," September 1988; "Der Warschauer Pakt Bie- New York Times, September 17. 1988. tetGleichgewichtderKonventionellen 52. Hilary F. French, "Restoring the UN," Streitkrafte in Europa an," Siiddeutsche 2ei- World Watch (Washington, D.C.). July/Au- turig, July 18, 1988; Paul Lewis. "Soviet Of- gust 1988. fers to Adjust Imbalance of Conventional 53. The United Nations has had previous Forces in Europe." New York Times, June 24, success in such cases; sec Johansen, "The 1988. Reagan Administration and the U.N." Paul 47. For a brief account of these events and Lewis, "Soviets Say U.N. Peacekeeping Effort the text of the Joint Statement and the treaty Should Emphasize Prevention," New York outline, see Robert Krinsky, "An Introduc- Times, October 18, 1988.

226 (232) Notes (Chapter 8) 54. Nicaragua's proposal from Johansen. Conference on Science and World Affairs, Oxford, "The Reagan Administration and the U.N."; U.K., September 7-12, 1972 (Oxford: 1973). Honduras* proposal from Wilson Ring. 60. William E. Saxe. review of Ellis Joffe. "Honduras Holding U.S. Responsible for The Chinese Army After Mao (Cambridge, Contras,"WashingtonPoo, October 25. Mass.: Harvard University Press. 1987), in 1988; estimatefrom Joanne Pentagon Friday Review of Defense Literature, September Oman& "Policing a Latin Peace Projected 16.1988."ChinaInventstheEntre- to Cost Millions." Washington Post. May 11, preneurial Army." Economist, May 14. 1988. 1985; U.S. spending from Joshua Cohen and Joel Rogers. "Central America Policy: 61. Samuel S. Kim. **The United Nations. The True Cost of Intervention," The Nation, Lawmaking, and World Order," Alternatives, April 12. 1986; Central American spending Vol. 10. No. 4. 1985. fromArmsControland Disarmament 62. Sandra Postel, "Protecting Forests Agency, World Military Expenditures and Amu frog, Air Pollution and Acid Rain." in Lester Transfers 1987. R. Brown et al.. State of the World 1985 (New 55. Robert C.Johansen, "Fora Permanent York: W.W. Norton & Co.. 1985); "European UN Police Force." Christian Science Monitor. Nations Ratify Sulfur Reduction Pact," World October 13. 1982; Paul Lewis. "Soviets Urge Environment Report.September 17.1987; Nations to Provide a U.N. Army," New York Warren E. Leary, "Reagan. In Switch. Agrees Times, October 3, 1988. to a Plan on Acid Rain." New York Times, Au- gust 7, 1988: "12 Nations Agree to Cut Pollu- 56. For 1988, expenditures totaled about $250 million; the sum of $380 million is ar- tion." Washington Past, November 1, 1988. rived at by annualizing the initial three- 63. Hilary F. French. "Industrial Waste- month cost of keeping U.N. observers in Iran land," World Watch (Washington. D.C.), No- and Iraq ($37.5 million), based on George D. vember/December 1988; "Ostblock Schlagt Moffett III, "Peacekeepers Win Peace Prize." EuropKische Umweltkonferenz Vor." Sid- Christian Science Al °triton September 30, 1988. deutsche Zeitung, July 18. 1988. 57. "Questions and Answers About Eco- 64. "West Germans Look For Ways to nomic Conversion." Corliss Lamont Pro- Clean Elbe River. Seek Cooperation With gram in Economic Conversion, Columbia East Germany, Czechoslovakia," Multina- University, New York. May 1987: military tional Environmental Outlook, September 15, payroll figure is a Woridwatch estimate. 1988; "East, West German Officials Struggle 58. H.R. 813, "The Defense Economic With Environmental Cooperation on Elbe Adjustment Act," by Rep. Ted Weiss; for a Multinational Environmental Outlook, August 4, 1988; "U.S. and Soviets Spur Scientific Col- brief characterization of the bill's main provi- laboration," Conservation FoundationLetter. sions, see Seymour Melman. "Law for Eco- 1988:1. nomic Conversion: Necessity and Character- istics," Bulletin of Peace Proposals, Vol. 19. No. 65. "U.S. and Soviets Spur Scientific Col- 1, 1988. laboration"; Cass Peterson, "U.S.. Soviet Sci- entists Open Dialogue on 'Greenhouse Ef- 59. Jonathan Feldman. "An Introduction fect'." Washington Post, May 12, 1988. to Economic Conversion," Briefing Paper No. 1, National Commission for Economic 66. John B. Oakes, "Greening Central Conversion and Disarmament. Washington. America," New York Times. April 20, 1988; D.C.. May 1988: Herbert York, "Some Possi- "Peace Through Parks: A Proposal for Bio- ble Measures for Slowing the Qualitative logical Reserves for the Protection of Unique Arms Race," Proceedings of the 22nd Pugwash Natural Areas on the Border Between Nica-

247 Notes (Chapters 8 and 9) (23 3 ) ragua and Costa Rica," Nicaraguan Institute Conn.: Kumarian, 1983); Mathew Zachariah, of Natural Resources. National Park Service Revolution Through Reform: A Comparison of Sar- of Nicaragua,Managua, mimeographed. vodaya and Conscientization(New York; Prae- Spring 1986. ger, 1986); Aloysius P. Fernandez, "NGOs in 67. Philip Shabecoff, "Parley Urges Quick South Asia: People's Participation and Part- Action to Protect Atmosphere,"New York nership,"World Development(supplement), Fall 1987; D.L, Sheth, "Grass Roots Initia- Times.July 1, 1988. tives in India."Development: Seeds 4. Change. No. 2, 1984; Centre for Science and Environ- Chapter 9, Mobilizing at the Grassroots ment.The Slate of India 's Environment 1984-85, The Second Citizen's Report(New Delhi: 1985). 1, In addition to the particular sources given in these notes, this chapter is based on 7.ADAB News(Dhaka, Bangladesh), May/ visits to dozens of grassroots development June 1987; Joanna Macy.Dharma and Develop- projects in Bolivia and Brazil in the summer ment: Religion as Resource in the Sarvodaya Self- of 1988. as well as previous trips lo other Help Movement,rev. cd. (West Hartford, parts of Latin America. Conn.; Kumarian, 1985); "Mosquito Control without Pesticides,"Panoscope(London), Oc- 2. Estimates of global participationin tober 1987; Denis Goulet, "Development grassroots movements for sustainable devel- Strategy in Sri Lanka and a People's Alterna- opment are of necessity highly speculative. tive," in Donald Attwood et al., eds..Power One attempt to calculate a rough figure for and Poverty: Development and Development Pro- rural Third World grassroots initiatives came jects in the Third World(Boulder, Colo.: West- to 100 million; Bertrand Schneider,The Bare- view Press, 1988). foot Revolution: A Report to the Club of Rome (London: Intermediate Technologies Publi- 8. Annis, "Re-organization at the Grass- cations. 1988). roots": Penny Lernoux,Cry of the People(New 3, Sheldon Annis, "Re-organization at the York: Penguin, 1980): Rubem C6sar Fer- nandes and Leilah Landim. "Um Perfil das Grassroots,"Grassroots Development,Vol. 11, No. 2, 1987: cult:Aral transformation dis- ONGs no Brasil,"Comunicerfoloes do FSER cussed in Richard Critchfield. "Science and (Rio de Janeiro). November 1986: Jane the Villager: The Last Sleeper Wakes,"For- Kramer, "Letter from the Elysian Fields," New Yorker.March 2, 1987; Sheldon Annis eign Affairs,Fall 1982, andVillages(Garden City, N.Y.: Anchor Press/Doubleday. 1981). and Peter Hakim, eds.,Direct to the Poor: Grass- roots Development in Latin America(Boulder, 4, Independent groups discussed inWorld Colo.; Lynne Rienner, 1988). Development (supplement), Fall 1987; Schneider,Barefoot Revolution. 9. Robert Wasserstrom,Grassroots Develop- ment in Latin America & the Caribbean: Oral His- 5. Table based on James Tarrant et al., tories of Social Change(New York: Praeger. "Natural Resources and Environmental Man- 1985); Albert Hirschman,Getting Ahead Collec- agement in Indonesia: An Overview," U.S. tively: Grassroots Experiences in Latin America AgencyforInternationalDevelopment (New York: Pergamon, 1984): Leon Zamosc, (AID), Washington, D.C.. October 1987; The Agrarian Question and the Peasant Movement Philippines from Jason DeParle, "The Slum in Colombia: Struggles of the National Peasant As- Washington Monthly, Behind the Sheraton," sociation. 1967-1981(Cambridge:Cam- December 1987;allother countries dis- bridge University Press, 1986); David Fran- cussed elsewhere in text with citations given, cis, "Colombian Official Develops Innovative 6. Terry Alliband.Catalysts of Development: Plan to Protect Environment,"Christian Sci- Voluntary Agencies in India(West Hartford, ence Monitor.June 27. 1986; Peter Rosset and 248 (234) Notes (Chapter 9)

John Vandermeer, eds,. Nicaragua: The Unfin- to Organize." Development: Seeds of Change, ished Revolution (New York: Grove, 1986). No. 4, 1984. 10. Lloyd Timberlake. Only One Earth: Liv- 14. Sithembiso Nyoni, "Indigenous ing for the Future (New York: Sterling, 1987); NGOs: Liberation, Self-Reliance. and Devel- Paul Harrison, The Greening of Africa (New opment." World Development (supplement), York:Viking/Penguin, 1987); Barbara Fall 1987. Thomas, Politics. Participation, and Poverty: De- 15. Bangladesh Rural Advancement Com- velopment Through Self-Help in Kenya (Boulder, mittee, "Household Strategies in Bonkura Colo.: Westview Press, 1985): Simon Mu- Village." in David Konen, ed., Community chiro, "The Role of African NGOs as a Tool Management: Asian Experience and Perspectives for Change," Development: Seeds of Change. No. (West Hartford, Conn.: Kumarian, 1986). 4. 1987; Pierre Pradervand, "Self-Reliance for Survival in Africa: Peasant Groups Key to 16, Hirschman, Getting Ahead Collectively. Continent's Future," Christian Science Monitor. 17. Lori Heise, Senior Researcher, World- March 9. 1988. watch Institute, private communications with 11. Hilary F. French, "Industrial Waste- organizers in various regions of India during land," World Watch (Washington, D.C.), No- visit in Fall 1986. vember/December 1988; Helsinki Watch, 18. Indian community development expe- From Below: independent Peace and Environmental rience from Gerrit Huizer. "Harmony vs. Movements in Eastern Europe & The USSR (New Confrontation," Development: Seeds of Change. York: 1987). No. 2, 1984; AID community development experience from Erik Eckholm, The Dispos- 12. U.S. environmental movement from sessed of the Earth: Land Reform and Sustainable PeterBorrelli,"Environmentalismat a Development. Worldwatch Paper 30 (Washing- Crossroads," .4micus fournal, Summer 1987, ton. D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, June 1979). and from Will Collette, "Citizen's Clearing- house on Hazardous Wastes," Environment. 19. Paulo Freire. Pedagogy of the Oppressed November 1987: Horst Mewes, "The Green (New York: Continuum, 1970): popular edu- Party Comes of Age," Environment, June cation from Patrick Breslin, Development and 1985; Saral Sarkar, "The Green Movement in Dignity (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American West Germany," Alien:wives. April 1986. Foundation (IAF), I987): Ariel Dorfman. "Bread and Burnt Rice: Culture and Eco- 13. Role of African women from Harrison. nomic Survival in Latin America," Grassroots Greening of Africa: Population Reference Bu- Development, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1984. reau, World Population Data Sheet 1988 (Wash- ington,D.C.: 1988);PeterWanyande. 20. Francis Mulwa, "Participation of the "Women's Groups in Participatory Develop- Grassroots in Rural Development: The Case ment:Kenya'sDevelopment Experience of the Development Education Programme Through the Use of Harambee," Development: of theCatholicDioceseof Machakos, Seeds of Change. No. 2/3, 1987; Kathryn March Kenya," Development: Seeds of Change. No. 2/3, and Rochelle Taqqu, If Informal Associa- 1987; Albert Hirschman, "The Principle of tionsinDevelopingCountries:Catalysis for Conservation and Mutation of Social En- Change? (Boulder, Colo.; Westview Press, ergy," in Annis and Hakim, Direct to the Poor. 1986): Sally Yudelman, Hopeful Openings: A 2 I. Eileen Belamide, "Building Self-Help Study of Five Women's Development Organizations Groups: The Philippine Experience," ideas in Latin America and the Caribbean (West Hart- and Action (U.N. Food and Agriculture Orga- ford, Conn.: Kumarian, 1987); Zubeida M. nization, Rome), November 1986: Devendra Ahmad, "Women's Work and Their Struggle Kumar, Centre of Science for Villages.

249 Notes (Chapter 9) (235) Wardha, India, private communication, May Times, May 3, 1988; Valdemar de Oliveira 23, 1988. Neto, Director-President, Centro Luiz Freire, 22, Macy, Dharma and Development. Olinda, Brazil, private communication, une 21, 1988; Suzana Cavalcanti, Co-Director, 23. Dorfman, "Bread and Burnt Rice." Centro Luiz Freire, Olinda, Brazil. private 24, Barber B. Conable, "Address to the communication, une 22, 1988; Maria Lucia Board of Governors," Berlin, September 27. Prazeres Farias, Director, Escola Maria Con- 1988; World Bank, The World Batik's Support ceic5o, Recife, Brazil, private communica- for the Alkviation of Poverty (Washington, D.C.: tion. June 22, 1988; author's visit to commu- 1988). nity schools, June 22, 1988. 25. Incentives to organize discussed in 31. John Briscoe and David de Ferranti. Sheldon Annis, "Can Small-Scale Develop- Il'aier for Rural Communities: Helping People Help ment be a Large-Scale Policy? The Case of Themselves (Washington, D.C.; World Bank, Latin America," World Development (supple- 1988); "We Can Solve It: An Alternative by ment), Fall 1987. the Community," video by UTTHAN-Mahiti. 26. Celine Sachs, "Mutir5oinBrazil, Development Action Planning Team, Ah- Initiatives for Self-Reliance," Development: madabad, India, 1987, Seeds of Change, No, 4, 1986; Julie Fischer, "Creating Communities; Squatter Neighbor- 32. "We Can Solve It." hood Associations in Latin America," Grass- 33. Sandra Huffman et al., "Community roots Development, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1982; Manila Designed Interventions to Prevent Malnutri- from Walden Bello, "The ZOTO Experi- tioninPeru: Community Kitchens and ence," Christianity and Crisis, November 9, Neighborhood Childcare" (draft), Center to 1987; Bangkok from Bertha Turner, ed., Prevent Childhood Malnutrition. Bethesda. Building Community: A Third World Case Book Md., May 20. 1988; Alan Riding, "Hunger (London: Building Community Books, 1988). Spreading in Peru Inflation," New York Times, 27. Paz quoted in Turner, Building Commu- October 30, 1988. nity: Sheldon Annis. "What is Not the Same about the Urban Poor: The Case of Mexico 34, United Nations Children's Fund (UNI- City," in John Lewis, ed., Strengthening the CEF), The State of the World's Children 1988 Poor: What Have We Learned? (New Brunswick. (New York: Oxford University Press, for New Jersey: Transaction Books, 1988). UNICEF. 1988). 28. Fischer,"CreatingCommunities"; 35, Marilynn M. Rosenthal, Health Care in Eliana Athayde, Centro de Defesa Rubino, the People's Republic of China: ;%loving Toward Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, private communica- Modernisation(Boulder,Colo.:Westview tion. June 14, 1988; Gilson Cardoso, presi- Press. 1987); Golam Samdani Fakir, "The dent, Associacfio de Moradores de Santa Role of NGOs in Health and Family Planning Marta, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, private commu- in Bangladesh," A DAB News (Dhaka, Ban- nication, June 15, 1988; author's visit to gladesh). May/June 1987. Santa Marta. June 15, 1988. 36. South Korea and Indonesia from 29, Timberlake, Only One Earth; Turner. Bruce Stokes, Helping Ourselves: Local Solutions Building Community: Pino Cirri& "Managing to Global Problems (New York: W.W. Norton & Local Food Supplies: Activism in Peru." Co,. 1981); Thailand from Norman Uphoff, Ceres. September 1987, Local Institutional Development: An Analytical 30. Alan Riding, "Brazil's Northeast, Mis- Sourcebook with Cases (West Hartford, Conn.: ery Molded by Man and Nature," New York Kumarian, 1986).

250 (236) Notes (Chapter 9) 37. Jodi L. Jacobson. Planning the Global 44. Ibid.; Medea Benjamin, "SEWA: In- Family. Worldwatch Paper 80 (Washington. dian Women Organize," Seeds(Oakhurst D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute.December Baptist Church, Decatur, Ga.), August 1986; 1987). Jennefer Sebstad, Women and Self-Reliance in India: The SEMI Story (London: Zed, in 38. Harrison, Greening of Africa; Sonia Cor- press). rea. SOS Corpo Mulher, Recife. Brazil. private communication, June 21. 1988. 45. Muhammad Yunus, Managing Direc- tor, Grameen Bank, Bangladesh. speech to 39. Judith Tendler et al., "What to Think 1988 Conference of Society for International About Cooperatives: A Guide from Bolivia," DevelopmentWashington Chapter, April in Annis and Hakim. Direct to the Poor; Shel- 22, 1988. don Annis, "The Next World Bank? Financ- ing Development from the Bottom Up." 46. Ibid.;ClydeFarnsworth,"Micro- Grassroots Development, Vol. 11, No. I, 1987. Loans to the World's Poorest," New York Times, February 21, 1988; Stall of the Select 40. Shoaib Sultan Khan, General Man- Committee on Hunger, "Access and Availa- ager. Aga Khan Rural Support Program, bility of Credit to the Poor in Developing "Successful Rural Development in the Moun- Countries and the United States," U.S. tains of Pakistan." presentation at Interna- House of Representatives.Washington. tional Forestry Seminar, AID, Washington, D.C., 1988. D.C., February 2, 1988; Operations Evalua- tion Department. The Aga Khan Rural Support 47. Bhoomi Sena from Guy Gran. "Learn- Program in Pakistan: An Interim Evaluation ing from Development Success: Some Les- (Washington. D.C.: World Bank, 1987). sons from Contemporary Case Histories." National Association of Schools of Public Af- 41. Khan, "Successful Rural Development fairs and Administration, September 1983, in the Mountains of Pakistan"; Operations and from Anisur Rahman, "Some Dimen- Evaluation Department. Aga Khan Rural Sup- sions of People's Participation in the Bhoomi port Program. Sena Movement," United Nations Research 42. Taiwan and South Korea from Uphoff, Institute for Social Development. Geneva. Local institutional Development: Michael Brat- 1981; Seth Mydans. "In the Big Manila Land ton, "Farmer Organizations and Food Pro- Plan, Steps are Small." New York Times, Octo- duction in Zimbabwe." World Development, ber 18. 1987; Tom Barry, Roots of Rebellion: March 1986; Norman Uphoff, "Activating Land & Hunger in Central America (Boston: Community Capacity for Water Management South End, 1987); Alan Durning. "Brazil's in Sri Lanka," in Korten. Community Manage- Landless Lose Again." World Watch (Wash- ment: Philippines from Benjamin Bagadic ington,D.C.), September/October 1988; and Frances Korten. "Developing Irrigators' Amnesty International, Brazil: Authorized Vio- Organizations: A Learning Process Ap- lence in Rural Areas (London: 1988). proach," in Michael Cernea, ed., Putting Peo- 48. Paul Kurian, "Commercialisation of ple First: Sociological Variables in Rural Develop- Common Property Resources. Kusnur Satya- ment (New York: Oxford University Press. graha." Economic and Political Weekly, January 1985); India from V. D. Deshpande et al.. 16, 1988. "Water for People." in Korten. Community 49. Robert Wade. "Why Some Indian Vil- Management. lages Co-operate." Economic and Political 43. Judith Tendler. "What Ever Hap- Weekly. April 16. 1988; Joshua Bishop, "In- pened to Poverty Alleviation?" Ford Founda- digenous Social Structures. Formal Institu- tion. New York. March 1987. tions. and the Management of Renewable 251 Note; (Chapter 9) (237) Natural Resources in Mali" (draft), Sahelian 54. Margaret Scott, "Loggers and Locals Department, World Bank, Washington, D.C.. Fight for the Heart of Borneo," Far Eastern August 1988: J. Arnold and Gabriel Camp- Economic Review, April 28, 1988. bell, "Collective Management of Hill Forests in Nepal: The Community Forestry Develop- 55. Mark Shepard, Gandhi Today: A Report ment Project," and Donald Messerschmidt, on Mahatma Gandhi's Successors (Arcata. Calif.: "People and Resources in Nepal: Customary Simple Productions, 1987). Resource Management Systems of the Upper 56. Vandana Shiva, "Fight for Survival in Kali Gandaki," both in Board on Science and India," Earth Island Journal, Spring 1988; Technology for International Development, "ProtectingDoonValley'sEco-System. Proceedings of the Conference on Common Property Problems and Limitations," Economic and Po- Resource Management (Washington, D.C.: Na- litical Weekly, October 10, 1987; Jayanta Ban- tional Academy Press, 1986). dyopadhyay and Vandana Shiva, "Chipko: 50. Brazil from various private communi- Rekindling India's Forest Culture," Ecologist, cations during author's visit, June 1988; January/February1987;ShobhitaJain, "Philippines: 50,000 Strong National Fisher- "Women and People's Ecological Move- folk Organization Demands Genuine Aquar- ment: A Case Study of Women's Role in the ian Reform," IFDA Dossier, May/June 1988; Chipko Movement in Uttar Pradesh," Eco- Sandeep Pendse, "The Struggle of Fisherfolk nomic and Political Weekly. October 13, 1984; in Goa," Development: Seeds of Change. No. 2, observations of Lori Heise, Senior Re- 1984; K.G. Kumar, "Organising Fisherfolk searcher, Worldwatch Institute, during visit Cooperatives in Kerala," Economic and Politi- to Chipko eco-development camp, Garhal, cal Weekly, March 19, 1988; Centre for Sci- India. Fall 1986. ence and Environment, State of India's Envi- 57. Harrison, Greening of Africa; Sandra ronment 1984-85. Postel and Lori Heise. Reforesting the Earth. 51. Julie Sloan Deslow and Christine Pa- Worldwatch Paper 83 (Washington, D.C.: doch, People of the Tropical Rain Forest (Berke- Worldwatch Institute, April 1988); Elizabeth ley.Ca.: University of CaliforniaPress, Obel, "Maendeleo Ya Wanawake Organiza- 1988); Stephen Schwartzman and Mary tion," Panascope (London), October 1987. Helena Allegretti, "Extractive Production in the Amazon and the Rubber Tappers' Move- 58. Harrison, Greening of Africa. ment," Environmental Defense Fund, Wash- 59. Ibid.; Bernard Lecomte, Project Aid: ington,D.C., May 28,1987;Stephen Limitations and Alternatives (Paris: Organisa- Schwartzman, Environmental Defense Fund. tion for Economic Co-operation and Devel- Washington, D.C.. private communication. opment (OECD), 1986); "Can Outsiders Play April 13, 1988. a Positive Role in Strengthening Grassroots 52. Private communications with various Movements?" Food Monitor (World Hunger members and officers of rubber tapper union. Year, New York), Spring 1986; Peter Wright Acre. Brazil, une 23, 1988; Mary Helena Al- and Edouard Bonkoungou. "Soil and Water legretti and Stephen Schwartzman. "Extrac- Conservation as a Starting Point for Rural tive Reserves: A Sustainable Development Forestry: The Oxfam Project in Ouahigouya. Alternative for Amazonia." Environmental Burkina Faso." Rural Africana,Fall 1985/ Defense Fund, Washington, D.C., 1987. Winter 1986. 53. Allegretti and Schwartzman, "Extrac- 60. Spreading networks traced in "NGO tive Reserves"; Alan Durning. "Violence in Networker" (newsletter). World Resources the Brazilian JungleA Global Concern," Institute, Washington, D.C., and in Panos cope. Christian Science Monitor, August 23 1988. PanosInstitute,London;environmental

252 (338) Notes (Chapter 9) movement in Africa from Paula Williams, nors." World Development (supplement). Fall "EvolvingConcerns."Letter/Reportto 1987. Peter Martin. Institute of Current World Af- 66. Robert Chambers, Rural Development: fairs, Hanover, N.H., October 1987; Nalim Putting the Last First (Essex: Longman Scien- Ladduwahetty. Editor and Founding Mem- tific & Technical, 1983). ber, Sri Iankan Environmental Congress. Colombo. Sri Lanka, private communication, 67. Problems of overfunding based on nu- February 10. 1988; Brazilian environmental merous private communications in United movement from private communications States and Latin America, especially Kevin during author's visit, June 1988. Healy. Bolivia Representative, Inter-Ameri- can Foundation. Arlington. Va.. September 61. Annis, "The Next World Bank?" 29, 1988. 62. Ibid.; Annis. "Can Small-Scale Devel- 68. AID comment at "Rethinking U.S. opment be a Large-Scale Policy?" Foreign Assistance," Forum held by Society 63. Steven Greenhouse, "Third World for International DevelopmentWashing- Tells I.M.F. that Poverty has Increased," New ton Chapter, Washington, D.C., September York Times, September 29. 1988; interna- 16, 1988; Bengali example from Charles Elli- tional debt payments from World Bank. ott. "Some Aspects of Relations Between the World Debt Tables: Extern' Debt of Developing North and South in the NGO Sector," World Countries, 1987-88 Edition, Volume I. Analysis Development (supplement), Fall 1987. and SummaryTables(Washington,D.C.: 69. Cernea, Putting People First: Lecomte, 1988); development assistance from Joseph Project Aid. Wheeler, Development Co-operation: Efforts and 70. On new assistance compact, see Anne Policies of the Umbers of the Development Assist- Gordon Drabek, "Development Alternatives: ance Committee, 1987 Report (Paris: OECD, The Challenge for NGOs An Overview of 1988). the Issues" and numerous other articles, 64. Stephen Hellinger et al., Rid for Just World Development (supplement). Fall 1987, Development (Boulder, Colo,: Lynne Rienner, 71. Lecomte, Project Aid: Kingston Kajese, 1988); Kurt Finsterbush and Warren Van "An Agenda of Future Tasks for Interna- Wicklin, "The Contribution of Beneficiary tional and Indigenous NGOs: Views from the Participation to Development Project Effec- South," and Brain Smith. "An Agenda of Fu- tiveness," Public Administration and Develop- ture Tasks for International and Indigenous ment, 1987. NGOs: Views from the North," World Develop- 65. Robert Cassen and Associates, Does Aid ment (supplement), Fall 1987. Work? (Oxford: Clarendon, 1986); charities 72. Breslin, Development and Dignity: IAF, as "growth field" from Joseph Wheeler. De- "The Inter-American Foundation: Report of velopment Co-operation: Efforts and Policies of the the Evaluation Group," Washington. D.C., Members of the Development Assistance Committee, March 1984; Office of Technology Assess- 1986 Report (Paris: OECD, 1987); Brian ment, U.S. Congress, Grassroots Development: Smith, "U.S. and Canadian PVOs as Trans- The African Development Foundation (Washing- national Development Institutions," in Rob- ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, ert Gorman, ed., Private roluntaY Organiza- 1988); Oxfam from Ben Whitaker, A Bridge of tions as Agents of Development (Boulder, Colo.; People (London: Heinemann. 1983); Michael Westview Press, 1984); Hendrik van der Gallagher and Miriam Parel. Ashoka. Wash- Heiiden, "The Reconciliation of :AGO Au- ington, D.C., and Lenny Silverstein, Ashoka, tonomy. Program Integrity and Operational Rio de Janeiro, private communications, Effectiveness with Accountability to Do- Spring and Summer 1988.

253 Notes(Chapters 9 and 10) (2391 73. Mellinger et al., Aidfor Just Development; (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, Chambers, Putting the Last First. February 1987), 74. Annis, "The Next World Bank?" 2. Bill KeepinandGregory Kats. "Green- house Warming: Comparative Analysis of 75. Pierre Pradervand, "Traveling in a Nuclear and Efficiency Abatement Strate- Mammie Wagonor a Range Rover." Food gies." Energy Policy, December 1988; Christo- Monitor (World Hunger Year, Ncw York), pher Flavin, The Case Against Reviving Nu- Spring 1986. clear Power," World Watch(Washington, 76. Annis, "Can Small-Scale Development D.C.), July/August 1988. Become a Large-Scale Policy?" S. U.S. Department of Energy. Energy In- formation Administration. Monthly Energy Re- 77. Zimbabwe from Jacobson, Planning Me view, July 1988; Christopher Flavin and Alan Global Family, and from Timberlake, Only One B. Duffing, Building on Success: The Age of En- Earth: Valerie Miller, Between Struggle and ergy Efficiency, Worldwatch Paper 82 (Wash- Hope: The Nicaraguan Literacy Crusade (Boul- ington, D.C.; Worldwatch Institute. March der, Colo.: Westview Press. 1985): Burkina 1988); lntemalional Energy Agency, Energy Faso and Kenya from Harrison, Greening of Conservation in IBA Countries (Paris; Organisa- Africa. tion for Economic Co-operation and Devel- 78. Philippine National Irrigation Admin- opment (OECD), 1987); carbon emission istrationfrom Benjamin Bagadion and figures are Worldwatch estimates based on Frances Korten. "Developing Irrigators' Or- Gregg Marland. Environmental Science Divi- ganizations: A Learning Process Approach," sion, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak in Cernea, Putting People First,- David Korten. Ridge, Tenn.. unpublished printout andpri- "Third Generation N(0 Strategies: A Key to vatecommunication. September 9, 1988. People-Centered Development," World De- 4. Michael Renner, Rethinking the Role of the velopment (supplement), Fall 1987. Automobile, Worldwatch Paper 84 (Washing- ton, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, June 1988); 79. Bello, "The ZOTO experience." automobile growth of 3 percent annually. or 80. Dexter Chavunduka etal.,Xhuluma a 75-percent increase by 2010. is consistent Usenza: The Story of a R.A.P. in Zimbabwe's with recent trends. Carbon emission figures Rural Development (Bulawayo. Zimbabwe: Or- are Worldwatch estimates based on carbon ganization of Rural Associations for Prog- emissionsproducedbydifferentfuels ress. 1985); People of God from author's visit derived from Gregg Marland, "The Impact to Povo de Deus, Recife. Brazil, June 1988; of Synthetic Fuels on Global Carbon Dioxide Shelton Davis, "The Ayoreode-Zapoc6 Com- Emissions," in W.C. Clark. ed., Carbon Dioxide munal Sawmill: A Social Forestry Project in Review 1982 (New York: Oxford University Eastern Bolivia." Grassroots Development, Vol. Press, 1982); unless otherwise noted, all car- 9. No. 2, 1985. bon estimates are based on this source. Deb- orah Bleviss. The New Oil Crisis and Fuel Econ- 81. Quoted in DeParle. "The Slum Be- omy Technologies: Pillaring the Light hind the Sheraton." Transportation Industry for the 1990's (Ncw York: Quorum Press, 1988). Chapter 10. Outlining a Global Action 5. World electricity breakdowns are based Plan on ICF Inc., Fairfax, Va., private communication. October 21, 1988; estimate of electricity 1. Christopher Flavin. Nuclear Power: The share of fossil fuel use is Worldwatch esti- Fallout From Chernobyl. Worldwatch Paper 75 mate; energy efficiency potentials are de- 254 (240) Notes (Chapter 10)

scribed in Flavin and Durning.Building on 12. International Energy Agency,Renew- Success. able Sources of Energy(Paris: OECD. 1987); 6. Lighting electricity figures are World- carbon displacement projections based on an assumed capacity factor of 20 percent for fu- watch estimates based on U.S. figures and on ture wind and photovoltaic systems. United Nations. 1985 EnergyStatistics Yearbook (New York: 1987); projected growth is based 13. U.S. Department of Energy, Budget on an assumed 3.percent annual growth rate. Highlights, FY1989 (Washington,D.C.: with carbon emissions based on replacing 1988); John Holusha. "Government Agrees coal-fired generation through efficiency im- to Relaxation of Auto Mileage Standard for provements; Arthur H. Rosenfeld and David '89,"New York Times.October 4. 1988. Hafemeister, "Energy-Efficient Buildings," 14. William U. Chandler et al.,Energy Ef- Scientific American.April 1988. ficiency: A New Agenda(Washington, D.C.: 7. Office of Technology Assessment. U.S. American Council for an Energy Efficient Congress,industrial Energy Use(Washington. Economy, 1988); gasoline tax projections are D.C.: U.S. Government PrintingOffice. Worldwatch estimates. 1983). 15. Flavin and Durning,Building on Success. 8. Robert H. Williams and Eric D. Larson. 16. Appliance efficiency from Flavin and "Steam-lnjected Gas Turbines and Electric Durning.Building on Success;fuel economy Utility Planning,"IEEE Technology and Society target from Chandler et al., ANew Agenda. Magazine.March 1986; carbon emissions projections are Worldwatch estimate based 17.Marland, privatecommunication; on a 30-percent improvement in the effi- World Bank,China: The Energy Sector(Wash- ciency of plant with an 80-percent capacity ington, D.C.: 1985); Christopher Flavin,Elec- factor, carbon emission figures for 1 million tricity for a Developing World: New Directions, megawatts of coal-fired capacity are based on Worldwatch Paper 70 (Washington, D.C.: an assumed44-percentcapacityfactor Worldwatch Institute. June 1986); Jose Gol- derived from United Nations. 1 985Energy demberg et al..Energy for a Sustainable World Yearbook. (Washington. D.C.: World Resources Insti- tute, 1987). 9. Carbon emissions in 1988 from Mar- 18. "Global Environmental Protection Act land. unpublished printout; the 3-billion-ton figure is based on the difference between of 1988," S. 2666. U.S. Senate, introduced by Senator Robert Stafford, uly 28, 1988; "Na- constant energy intensity of a world economy tional Energy Policy Act of 1988," S. 2667. growing 3 percent annually and a 2-percent annual reduction in intensity for 20 years; U.S. Senate, introduced by Senator Timothy Wirth, July 28, 1988: "Global Warming Pre- degree difference range derived from Irving vention Act of 1988," H.R. 5460, U.S. House Mintzer, AMailer of Degrees: The Potential for of Representatives, introduced by Repre- Controlling the Greenhouse Effect(Washington, sentative Claudine Schneider. October 5, D.C.: World Resources Institute, 1987). 1988. i 10. Cynthia Pollock Shea,Renewable En- 19. "Conference Statement," The Chang- ergy: Today's Contribution. Tomorrow's Promise, ing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Se- Worldwatch Paper RI (Washington, D.C.: curity, Toronto, June 27-30, 1988; William Worldwatch Institute. January 1988). U. Chandler, Battelle Pacific Northwest Lab- 11. ICFInc.,privatecommunication; oratory, "An Energy Efficiency Protocol for Shea,Renewable Energy;c: :Don emissions ReducingtheRiskof Global Climate based on replacing coal-fire I generation with Change." background paper for Project renewables. Blueprint. Washington, D.C., June 15. 1988. 255 Notes (Chapter 10) (241) 20. Brazil figure from Alberto W. Seizes et 26. Postel and Heise,Reforesting the Earth. al.,''Relat6rio de Atividades do Projeto 27. Ibid.. with one important change: the IBDR-INPE 'SEQV-Ano 1987," Instituto carbon-fixing rate was reduced from 6.5 tons de Pesquisas Espaciais, Sio Paulo. Brazil, per hectare per year to 5.5 tons based on May 1988; 11.3 million figure from FAO, analysis of data in Sandra Brown et al.. "Bio- Tropical Forest Resources,Forestry Paper 30 mass of Tropical Tree Plantations and Its Im- (Rome: 1982); new estimate for Brazil is 6.5 plications for the Global Carbon Budget." million hectares greater than previous esti- Canadian Journal of Forest Research,Vol. 16. mates (see World Resources Institute/Inter- national Institute for Environment and De- No. 2. 1986. velopment,World Resources 1986(New York: 28. Area in Conservation Reserve from Basic Books. 1986)). which leads to conclu- Lester R. Brown, "Breakthrough on Soil Ero- sion that the FAO estimate is probably at sion,"World Watch(Washington. D.C.), May/ least 50 percent too low: for discussion of June 1988. Calculation assumes a carbon- forest damage in industrial countries, see fixing rate of 5 tons per hectare per year, James J. MacKenzie and Mohamed T. El- although higher rates-for example, with Ashry,Ill Winds: Airborne Pollution's Toll on American sycamores-have been achieved; Trees and Crops(Washington, D.C.: World Re- see Gregg Marland. Oak Ridge National Lab- sources Institute, 1988). oratory, Testimony before the Comm. Ace on 21. Sandra Post el and Lori Heise.Reforest- Energy and Nat ural Resources, U.S. Senate, ing theEarth, Worldwatch Paper 83 (Wash- September 19, 1988. A 500-megawatt coal- ington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, April fired plant emits 946,000 tons of carbon per 1988). year, according to calculations by World- watch. 22. For an analysis of the effects of government forest policies, see Robert Repetto,The 29. Postel and Heise.Reforesting the Earth. Forest For the Trees? Government Policies and the 30. Daniel J. Dudek,Offsetting New CO2 Nuuse of Forest Resources(Washington. D.C.: Emissions(New York: Environmental Defense World Resources Institute, 1988). Fund. 1988). 23. Peter Truell. "Latin American Debt 31. Louise Sweeney. "The Greening of Prompts Action,"Wall Street Journal.Septem- Kenya,"Christian Science Monitor,October 7, ber 22. 1988: "G-7 Summit Leaders' En- 1986; "Power Company to Fund Reforesta- dorsement of Sustainable Development Wel- tion to Offset Carbon Dioxide Emissions. comed,"International Environment Reporter. Slow Greenhouse Effect," pressrelease, July 13, 1988. World ResourcesInstitute,Washington, 24. Marlise Simons, "Brazil Acts to Slow D.C., October 11, 1988; Philip ShabecolT, Destruction of Amazon Forest,"New York "U.S. Utility Turns to Guatemala to Aid Times,October 13. 1988. Air,"New York Times,October 12, 1988; Gary Moll, Vice President of Programs, 25. Terence Hpay.The International 47-opi- American Forestry Association, Testimony cal Timber Agreement: Its Prospects for Tropical before the Committee on Energy and Natu- Timber Trade, Development and Forest Manage- ral Resources, U.S. Senate, September 19, ment(London: International Union for Con- 1988. servation of Nature and Natural Resources/ International Institute for Environment and 32. Information onforestassessment Development. 1986); Richard House. "Tim- from Robert W. Harrill, Woods Hole Re- ber Producers. Users Talk of Saving For- search Center, Woods Hole, Mass.. private ests,"Washington Post,July 23, 1988. communication, October 6. 1988.

25g (242) Notes (Chapter 10) 33. Robert W. Herdt, Technological Potential 41. Ibid. for Increasing Crop Productivity in Developing 42. ibid. Countries, paper presented to the meeting of the International Trade Research Consor- 43. Kenneth Tull. "Bio-Intensive Garden- tium, December 14-18,1986; Lester R. ing in the Philippines: An International insti- Brown with Erik P. Eckholm, By Bread Alone tute for Rural Reconstruction and UNICEF (New York: Praeger Publishers. 1974). Project." in Kenneth Tull et al., Experiences in 34. Francis Urban and Philip Rose, World Success: Cast Studies in Growing Enough Food Through Regenerative Agriculture (Emmaus. Pa.: Population by COnnify and Region. 1950 -86, and Rodale International. 1987). Projections to 2050 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eco- 44. M. Rupert Cutler. "The Peril of Van- nomicResearchService(ERS),1988); ishing Farmlands," New York Times. July 1, USDA, ERS, World Grain Harvested Arm, Pro- 1980. duction,and Yield 1950-87 (unpublished 45. OECD. Land se Policies and Agriculture printout) (Washington. D.C.: 1988). (Paris: 1976). 35. USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950-87; 46. Norman A. Berg, "Making the Most of Herdt, Technological Potential. the New Soil Conservation initiatives," Jour- 36. USDA. ERS, World Grain 1950-87; nal of Soil and Water Conservation, January/ U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization February 1987; USDA, ERS, Cropland, Water, (FAO), FAO Fertilizer yearbook 1986 (Rome: and Conservation Situation and Outlook Report, 1986). Washington. D.C.. September 1988; -Sixth 37. J. Dawson Ahalt, -Argentine Agricul- CRP Signup Adds 3.4 Million Acres," Agricul- ture Struggles With Policy Changes." Choices, tural Outlook. August 1988. First Quarter 1988. 47. Sandra Postel, Conserving Water: The 38. Milton J. Esman, Landlessness and Near. Untapped Alternative. Worldwatch Paper 67 (Washington. D.C.: Wor'dwatch Institute, Landlesstiess in Developing Countries(Ithaca. September 1985). N.V.: Cornell University Center for international Studies. 1978): R. Albert Berry and 48. Consultative Group on International William R. Cline, Farm Size, Factor Productivity Agricultural Research, World Bank. Annual and Technical Change in Developing Countries Report 1987-88 (Washington, D.C.: 1988). (draft. June 1976). summarized in Schlomo 49. International Monetary Fund (1MF), Eckstein et al., Land Reform in Latin America: International Financial Statistics, Washington, Bolivia, Chile. Mexico, Peril and Venezuela, Staff D.C., various months. Working Paper No. 275, World Bank, Wash- ington, D.C.. April 1978; Erik Eckholm, The 50. USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Dispossessed of the Earth: Land Reform and Sus- (FAS), "Reference Tables for Wheat. Corn, tainable Development, Worldwatch Paper 30 and Total Coarse Grains: Supply-Distribu- (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch institute, tion for Individual Countries," Ithr/d Grain June 1979). Situation and Outlook. Washington, D.C.. Janu- ary 1987: USDA. FAS, "Reference Tables on 39. Gary Lee, "Soviets Allow Land Leas- Rice:Supply-DistributionforIndividual ing for Farmers," ll*ashingion Post. August 27, Countries.** World Grain Situation and Outlook, 1988. Washington. D.C., August 1986. 40. Edward C. Wolf, Beyond the Green Revo- 51. 1MF. International Financial Statistics lution: New Approaches for Third World Agricul- Yearbook (Washington, D.C.: 1988). ture.Worldwatch Paper 73 (Washington. D.C.: Worldwatch Institute: October 1986). 52. Brown with Eckholm, By Bread Alone.

2.57 Notes (Chapter 10) (243) 53. PopulationInformationProgram, 63. PopulationInformationProgram, "Population and Birth Planning in the Peo- "Population and Birth Planning in the Peo- ple's Republic of China"Population Reports, ple's Republic of China": Chen, "1 1 M Chi- Series J, No, 25, Johns Hopkins University, nese"; World Bank,World Development Report Baltimore, Md January/February1982; 1988. USDA, ERS,World Grain 1950-87. 64. Departmentof InternationalEco- 54, Barber B. Conable, President, World nomic and Social Afthirs,Fertility Behavior in Bank, "Address to the Board of Governors," the Con tml of Development: Evidence from the Berlin, September 27, 1988; USDA, ERS, World Fertility Survey(New 'York: United Na- World Grain 1950-87;World Bank,World De- tions, 1987). velopment Report1988 (New York: Oxford 65, Judith Jacobsen.Promoting Population University Press, 1988). Stabikation:incentives forSmallFamilies, 55, UnitedNations,StatisticalOffice, Worldwatch Paper 54 (Washington, D.C.: Monthly Bulletin of Statistics.New York, Sep- Worldwatch Institute, June 1983). tember 1988. 66, Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf, 56. Carl Haub, Population Reference Bu- "Reclaiming the Future," in Lester R. Brown reau, Washington, D,C., private communica- et al.,State of 1he World 1988 (NewYork: W.W. tion, October 17, 1988. Norton & Co., 1988). 57. Quote from Economic and Social 67. Thomas E. Lovejoy. "Will Unexpect- Commission for Asia and the Pacific,Popula- edly the Top Blow Off ?" Plenary Address to tion of fapan,Country Monograph Series No. the Annual Meeting of the American Insti- 11 (New York: United Nations, 1984): Haub, tute of Biological Sciences, University of Cal- private communication. See also Irene V. ifornia at Davis, August 14, 1988. Taeuber,The Population of Japan(Princeton, 68. Eduard A. Shevardnadze, Minister for NJ.: Princeton University Press. 1958). Foreign Affairs, Union of Soviet Socialist 58. PopulationInformationProgram, Republics, Statement before the Forty-third "Population and Birth Planning in the Peo- Session of the U.N. General Assembly. New ple's Republic of China"; Haub, private com- York, September 27, 1988. munication. 69. United Nations Children's Fund (UNI- 59, UnitedNations.MonthlyBulletin; CEF), The Sinkof the Irarld's Children 1989 Haub, private connnunication. (New York: Oxford University Press. for UNICEF. 1989). 60. United Nations,Monthly Bulletin. 70. For Ghana and Peru, sec World Food 61. Jodi L. Jacobson.Planning the Global Council,The Global Slate of 1 1 unger and Malnu- Family.'tVorldwatch Paper 80 (Washington, trition;Michael Griffin. "Harsh Timesco: D.C.:WorldwatchInstitute.December Madagascar's Growing Numbers."People 1987). (London). Vol. 15. No. 2. 1988. 62. PopulationInformationProgram. "Population and Birth Planning in the Peo- 71. Ruth Leger Sivard, World .1Gli&srand SocialExpenditures1937-38(Washington, ple's Republic of China": Pi-chao Chen. "11 M Chinese Opt for Only One Child Glory D.C.: World Priorities inc., 1987). Certificate,"People(London). Vol. 9. No. 4, 72. "Conference Statement," The Chang- 1982. ing Atmosphere,

258 Index

Afghanistan. 148 psychological toll of, 113, 121 Africa repressive measures and discrimination as reaction AIDS in. 114. 115. 120 to, 122-23. 129 carrying capacity study of. 27 urban prepeadence of. 116 degraded land in. 13-14. 23. 2:. 28. 48 UV radiation effect on patients with. 83 dependence on grazing animals in, 23 worldwide total of people with. 113. 115 environmental refugees in. 61 see also health; human immunodeficiency virus food production and consumption in. 13- 14.43. 55 air pollution. see pollution, air grain imports by. 16. 45 albedo. impact on rainfall of increase in. 30 grassroots organizations in. 156-58. 159. 164. 168 Algeria. 45. 63 hazardous waste export to. 70 Alliance for Responsible CM Policy. 85 HIV prevalence in. 116 American Forestry Association. 183 population growth in. 40. 43 American Institute of Biological Sciences. 192 public's concern toward environment in. 5 American Lung Association. 106 recent major droughts in. 21. 22. 62 American Medical Association (AMA). 194 sett einforcing cycle of drought and degradation in. American Telephone and Telegraph (AT&T), 89 91 32. 47. r Amnesty International. 165 status of women in, 29. 40. 158. 163 Amu-Darya (Soviet Union). 50-51 see also individual countries in Anderson. James. 79 African Development Foundation. 171 Annis. Sheldon. 172 African Ministerial Conference on the Environment Antarctica, 17. 18, 78-81 (1985). 38 Applied Energy Services (Virginia). 183 African NGOs Environmental Network. 38 aquifers. see groundwater Aga Khan Rural Support Program (Pakistan). 165-64 Aral Sea. water level fall of. 4-5. 26. 51. 142 Agency for International Development. U.S. (AID). 39. Arctic. 80-81 169 Argentina Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of auto production and owne.ship trends in. 99-100 Environmental Protection (1972). 153 grain exports from, 45 agriculture lack of auto emission controls in. 107 climate change's impact on. 4. 10-11. 14-16. 29-30 ozone layer depletion over. 80 environmental trends and resource constraints on. armaments 42. 46 disbanding stockpiles of. 147 future strategy for international. 184-88 expenditures and human development priorities. 137 irrigation use and intensity of. 49 grassroots pressure for elimination of. 147 land and labor drawn to industry from. 44. 46. 47 negotiations for controls on. l45 maximum physical response to inputs in. 53-54 trade. 134-35. 136 production trends in global. 12-13. 14 see also military t = nologies used for. 42. 44. 46 Army Corps of Engineers. U.S.. 87 1' d World unsustainable. 60-64 Ashoka (United States). 171 see also cropland: crops Asia agroforestry. 35. 39. 185. 186 AIDS in, 115 Agroforestry Outreach Project (Haiti). 39 auto ownership in. 99 AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome). 113-31 chemical fertilizer use in. 52 epidemiological shift in. 117 community movement in. 156. 161. 162. 164-67 human and social vulnerabilities exposed by. 128-31 conversion of flooded to irrigated riceland in. 51 impact of on Third World. 118. 121 cropland conversion to nonfarm uses in, 46 latency period for. 114. 123 food production and emnsumption in. 14. 16. 44. 45 prevalence by region, 115-16 HIV prevalence in. 116 prevention methods and initiatives for. 121-22. land distribution confrontations in. 165 123-24. 125. 126-28 salinized land in. 26

259 z

(246) Index

Asia (eontintied) Burkina Faso sea level rise impact on. 104 I carrying capacity study of. 27 see aim individual countries in desertification Anion Plan in. 38 Association for Sexual Education (Guatemala). 126 environmental refugees of, 62 Ashayde, E/iana, 161 grassroots organizations in, 158 Atkinson. Roger. 80 immunization of children M. 172 Australia Bush. George. 147 AIDS prevention in, 124 auto emission standards in, 107 Cairo Plan, on environmental degradation. 38-39 grain exports from, 46 California ozone layer depletion over, 80 automobile proliferation impacts on. 110 automobiles, 97-112 methanol Biel use program in. 109 alternative fuels for. 101-3, 108-9 renewable energy use in. 178 improved CFC efficiency for air conditioners in. 90 salinized land in. 26 land requirements for infrastructure used by, 110 University of. 106. 150 trends in production and use of, 97. 98-100. 101-2. Campaign for Peace and Democracy/East and West. 109-12 147 urban residents reliance un. 110 Canada Sff also transportation acid deposition damage in. 142 Ayoob. Mohammed. 136 auto emission standards in. 107 AZT, 118 carbon emission reduction gm! of, 8. 19. 194 CFC use reductions in, 89 Bandyopadhyay. Jayanta. 32 environmental policy change in, 8 Bangladesh food production changes due to climate change in. environmental refugees in, 4, 65 15 flooding in. 4. 5. 11.64 -65 grain expt ris from. 57-58 imported oil expenditures by. 101 hydrogen vehicle fuel R&D in, 103 marginal disaster-prone areas M. 64. 65 impacts of Rt..ist severe droughts in. 41. 57-58 sea level rise impact on, 11. 72-74 imported air pollution as foreign policy consideration self-help groups in. 156 by, 17-18 Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee. 163 coil erosion costs to. 60 Barker. Randy, 53, 54 carbon emissions Belgium. 89 reduction goals. 8. 19. 194 Bengal. Bay of. 25. 74 sources of, 4. 8-9, 10, 71, 106-9. 177 Bcrry, Wendell. 141 strategies for lowering. 175-80 Shave. Vinoba. 156 .nlizrdensztaol.015.338. Bhoomi Sena Land movement (India), 165 CCIArdREena(Ul 169 Bhopal. India, toxic leak in. 69 Caribbean Basin, 63, 114 biological cycles. disrupting, 32, 47-48. 59-63, 64 carrying capacity. land degradation and. 27, 28 biomass. sr, forests; fuelood Censers for Disease Control (CDC). U.S., 125 biotechnology. impact on agriculture of. 54. 187 Central America birth control. we family planning CATIE activities in, $9 Staining °them 122 environmental alliance among countries in. 153 Blueprint forthe Peace Race.146 grassroots movements in. 156 Bolivia. 173 land degradation as cause of migration in, 64 Bongaarts. John. 120 see also Latin America: individual countries in Borneo, 166 Centre of Science for tillages (India). 160 Botswana. 63 Chad. 13, 27, 62 Boutding, Kenneth. 136 Chapman. Duane. 53. 54 Brahmaputra River. 25-26, 65. 72 Charney, J.G., 30 Brazil Chernob1. Soviet Union. 5-6, 59, 69. 144 auto emission standards in. 107 Chile. 80 auto production and ownership trends in. 99 China deforestation in, 4, 26. 29. 31 agricultural policy in. 43-44 food insecurity in. 14 auto ownership trends in. 100 grain imports by. 45 'barefoot doctors' in. 163 grassroots movements in. 156. 161-62. 166. 168, carbon emissions in, 9, 179 17$ chemical fertilizer use in. 52 growth of women's movement in. 163 climate change effects in. 3. 10 imported oil expenditures by. 100-1 cropland conversion to nonfarn uses in. 47 national land use policy of. 29 economic reforms in, 36 ozone layer depletion over. 80 food production trends in. 12.43 -44. 54, 58 Proakoot (ethanol fuel) program in. 101. 102 grain imports by. 44-45 Brether, Jeremy. 7 impacts of recent severe droughts in. 21.41. 43. 52. British .Nntarctic Survey. 78 55 Brundtland, Gro Harlem (Prime Minister of Norway). independent community groups in, 158, 172 8. 19.20. 194 irrigation use in. 49, 50. 51

260 Index (247) military to civilian resource conversion by. 150-51 increasing productivitv potential of. 52-55 population control in. 188. 189-90. 191 irrigated. 26. 49. 50. 51 ree.or.ttion of degraded land in, 33-34 restoration methods for. 33-'46. 37 soil erosion and salinization in. 26 shrinking base of. 46-49 Chipko (India). 167 use of idled and highly erodible. 12. 13. 46-47 chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) lee als agriculture; crops effects from atmospheric release of. 8-9, 77, 78. 144 crops emission reduction methods for. 814-92 decreased yields of. 4. 10-11, II 13. 15. 29-30. global production and market value of. 86 143-44 international cooperation to control. 18-19. 78. sea level rue impact on. 10-11 93-96 UV radiation effect on. 83 properties and uses of, 85, 86, 87 Fields in experimental plats of. 53-54 Christian Base Communities. 156 ire obis agriculture: cropland cities Cutler. Rupert. 186 AIDS spread from. 116 air pollution in large. 106 data collection environmental refugees* migration to. 61. 62. 63-64 on AIDS. 116. Mt 119 health care changes brought about by AIDS in. on CEC production and consumption. 86. 88 130-31 on fertility rates and women's status. 163 independent development organizations in. 364 on forest status. 4. 9. 26-27. 29. 31. 65. 183-84 traffic restraints in inner. 108 on inundation from sea level rise. 72-74 transport systems for. 110. 111. 112 on ozone layer deple:ion 78. 79-81 Clean Air Act. U.S. 108 by satellite. 4. 26. 28. 31. 180. 184 climate change on soil erosion rates. 47.49 alternative fuels* impacts on. 109 on worldwide desertification. 22. 23, 27. 28 causes of. 8-9. 71. 102. 106-9. 143-44 debt developing an energy strategv for reducing. 175-80 agricultural input use and Third World. 52 effects of. 3- 1.9 -10. 12. 14-16. 29-31. 71-75. 80, effect on food security of. 13. 14, 55 107 owed so United Nations. 20. 148 food security's threat from. 14-16 Third World buying power and. 99 inevitability in onset of, 3-4. 8. 9-10. 11. 29. 41-42. Third World military expenditures and. 137-38 58. 71. 78 deforestation international cooperation so minimize. 11-12. 19-20. carbon emissions from. 4,14. 9. 10 93-96 data collection on trends in. 4. 9, 26-27. 29, 31, 65. modeling on. 3. 9. 11. 29 183-84 research on. 19. 95 hydrological cycle alteration from. 4, 31-32 coal. szz fossil fuels incentives. 181 Colorado. 109 *natural' disasters from mountain. 64-66 Colorado River. 26 results of. 26-27 Commission on California Stale Government so ado forests; reforesiation Organization and Economy'. 110 Deforestation and Desertification Control NGO community groups. set grassroots organizations: Network. 38 independent development organizations: degradation. land. 21-40 nongovernmental organizations as cause of wars, 142 Conable Barber. 160. 188 causes of. 23-29. 62 Congress. U.S. consequences of, 12-14. 22 alternative fuel encouragement by. 109 contradiction between naiionai sovereignty and climate change hills in. 8. 180 global impact of. 141-45 hazardous waste export legislation in. 70 effect on Bangladesh of Himalayan watershed, 64-65 Superfund enactment by, 67 environmental refugees created by. 59, 60-61 Conservation International. 153 global arms race and. 136-41 Conservation Reserve Program. U.S. 33. 42, 43. 46, land tenure and. 28-29 48. 56-57. 182-83. 186 local action so pvvent and clean up. 165-68 Consultative Group on NI emational Agricultural military resource ernanneling to present and clean Research (CGIAR) 187 up. 149-53 Convention on the Law of the Sca, 18 nitrogen-fixing trees to combat. 35. 185, 186 Convention on LongRange Transbmindary Air or also desertification Pollution (1979). 6. 18. 152 Denmark, 80. 89. 90. 146 conversion, economic. 149-53 Department of Agriculture. U.S. (USDA) Costa Rica. 39 erodible cropland removal by. 42. 43. 46, 48. 56-57 Cbie d'Ivoire 62 groundwater study by. 50 Countreras Lopez. 148 world grain estimate by. 55 Crodynamics (New Jersey). 02 Department of Transportation. U.S.. 178 cropland desertification conversion of highly. erodible. 42. 43. 46. 48, 56-57 allsedo's impact on. 30 distribution and desertification of. 24-25, 27, 28-09 droughts and floods caused by. 31-32 food productivity and degraded. 26. 42. 43. 51 evapotranspiration's impact on. 30 261 (248) Index desertification (roitotted) of hazardous waste control and disposal. 67. 68. 69. from poor irrigation practices. 26 70 baking spread of. 33-37 health care, 106. 118-119. 120-27 implementing worldwide cnntrol of, 37-40 of irrigation use. 34. 49 land use changes and. 29, 62 of nuclear power dependence, 176 Nairobi conference on. 22, 37-38 of sea level rise. 11 71. 73-74. 75 see also degradation, land Third World grassroots groups' effect on industrial developing countries, sno Third World:I':idual countries' policies of, 1611-69 countries in we also funding development assistance agencies ecosystems AIDS funding from. 128 climate change's effect on. 10 cooperation with NGOs by. 38-39. 40 humaminduced activities affecting. 64-66 grain prices effect on aid from. 14 international cooperation to protect coastal, 18 shortcomings of programs by. 169-72 UV radiation effect on. 83-84 support of misguided land use policies by, 23. 29 education working relationships between community groups Brazil's popular movement for. I6I-62 and. 169-72 programs for AIDS. 122, 123 development. economic to promote environmental action. 5. 7 food production and industrial. 44. 46. 47 see also training grassroots organizations shortcomings in. 163-64 efficiency reforming systems and policies for. 168-72 ofJUI^ fuel. 101-6. 108 development. sustainable impsed CFC use. 89-90 carrying capacity and. 27-28 improving energy, to achieve global action plan of deforested land. 27 goals, 173, 176-79 grassroots organizations efforts toward. 154-68 increase in fuelwood use. 27 institutional foundation for. photosynthetic. and crop yield limit, 54 'natural' disasters resulting front disc girding. 66 water use, for irrigation, 51 need for national-local alliances for. 172-73 Egypt Dominican Republic. 39 grain imports by. 45 Dorfman. Ariel. 160 habitable land in. 74 Dow Chemical Company. 85. 91 land degradation in, 63 Dregne. Harold. 37. 61 salinized land rehabilitalion by. 37 drinking water, sno fresh water: groundwater sea level rise impacts on. 11. 72, 74 droughts Eisenhower. Dwight D.. 137 effects of African. 62 Elbe Rive,, I52 harvest reduction from. 41. 42. 43.52. 55. 57-58 Environmental Defense Fund, 183 increasing frequency of. 9-10, 2940 E..vironmental Project on Central America. 153 likelihood of continuing severe, 41-12. 58 Environmental Protection Agency. U.S. (EPA) recent major. 3-4. 21. 29 Clean Air Act enforcement responsiblity of. 108 sclf-reinforcing conditions for. 32. 63 CFC regulation by. 90 Dudek. Daniel. 183 hazardous waste cleanup by. 66 Dumas, Lloyd. 137. 140 04011C layer depletion report by. 94. 95 du Pont de Nemours & Company. E.L. 85, 91 UV radiation projections of. 82.84 Environmental Protection Committee (Soviet Union), Eastern Europe 68 AIDS in. 115 erosion. soil CFC reduction strategies in. Ms. 03-94 causes of, 26. 46-17 consequences of permanent war economy urn. 13s1 Conservation Reserve's impact on. 33 energy policies in. 180 estimate of topsoil loss to. 25. 49 environmental awakening .n. 6-7 food insecurity threat from, 13 -14, 25. 48 grain trade by. 45 methods for controlling, 33. St 35-36 independent community groups in. 138 on rangelands. 23 pollution threats in. 68, 89. 107 Ethiopia private autos in. 98, 99 food securits in. 13 Ire also individual countries in land allocation in. 36 East Germany. see German Democratic Republic (GDR) land degradation in. 65 Economic Commission for Europe (ECU. 6, 18 mass migrations in, 61 economies restoration of degraded land in. 34-35. 6 of agricultural adjustments caused by s'limate change. soil erosion in. 47. 61 29-30. 84 Europe of MIA epidemic. 120-21. 122. 125. 126. 128. 130 auto standards in, 10$, 104, 107, 108 of auto use and production. 98. 99. 100-3. 110-11 CFC use in. 86. 108 ofCFC reduction and replacement. 85. 89, 90-91, Chernobyl's effect on. 69 93 depletion of ozone layer ovvr. 4. 77 of degraded land control and restoration, 34, 35. 57 forest damage in, 6. 106 of focd production. 4. 12. 14. 42.44. 46. St 53. 54 public's concern toward environment in. 4-5 global military. 136-41. 145-5:1 transport A,SICMS in. 111

262 Index (249) see alsoEastern Europe; Western Europe; individual reforestation. 182-83 countries in Third World AIDS presernion. 126 European Commission. 17 UV radiation research. 84 European Economic Community (EEC) see alsoeconomics auto emissions standards in. 107 CFC use reduction in. 89 Gambia. 27. 40 environmental regulation by. 17 Gandhi, Mahatma, 156 negative results of consensus-building process within, G: adhi, Rajiv, 4$ 152 Ganges River UV research in. 84 Bonding of. 64-65 European Parliament. 7. 17, 70 sea level rise impact mu. 72 exports.seetrade sedimentation transported b.. 25-2(1 Gardner. Richard. 20 family planning. 163. 188-92; see also population Gay Men's Health Crisis (New York), 123 Farmar. Joseph. 78 Gayoont. Maumoon Abdul. 71. 75 Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) General Motors Corporation, 105 air pollution policy of. 6 German Democratic Republic (GDR). 103 CFC and halon reduction efforts of. 89- tel. 9`2. 96 01141i. Dumas. 142 compulsory AIDS testing in. 122 Giap. Vo Nguyen. 8 grassroots movements in. 158 glasnost green political movement's roots in. 7 AIDS and. ISO hydrogen vehicle fuel R&D in. 103 environmental activism sunder. 6 public concern overrealdsterbenin. 6 greenhouse. 153 UV research in. 84 Global Action Plan Federal Reserve. U.S.. monetary policy of. 140 agenda for. 174-92 fertilizer need for immediate action on. 192-94 diminishing returns on use of. 54 Global Programme on AIDS (GPM-WHO. 113, land degradation masked by use of. 49 125-26 subsidies. 52 global warming.seeclimate change worldwide growth in use of. 48, 32 Gorbachev. Mikhail Pincher& Harvey. 130 auto ownership andprrestroskapolicy of. 99 fisheries. 11. 83-84 disarmament overtures by, 138, 143. 140, 147. 148 food. see gain erosion-limiting measures proposed by. 47 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 26-27. 184 Gorse, Jean Eugene. 27 food security Goa. Andre. 112 climate ehange's threat to. 14-16 Goto. Hirotoshi. 89 environmental deterioration's threat to. 12-14 grain strategy for ensuring future. 184-88 alcohol fuel derived from. 101, 102. 109 trends in global. 55-58 drop in world reserves of, 41, 33-38. 187 Ford Motor Company. 103 hybrid strains of. 54, 53. 186 forests prices and supplies of. 42. 57. 58 clearing of tropical. 4. 8. 9. 26. 29. 31 trends in world production of. 4. 12. 15. 16.4'2, climate ehange's impact on. 10 43-44. 55. 187 effects of unsustainable use of. 28. 47-48 yield levels of. 52-53 independent organizations' protection of, 166-67 Gramecn Bank (Bangladesh). 164-65 pollution damage to. 6. 28. 106 Grapes of irratA. The.60 strategy to preserve and expand. 180-84 grassroots organizations. 154-73 see alsodeforestation: fuelvdood: reforestation characteristics of. 155. 158 fossil fuels, & 9. 71. 102. 106-9 common factors for effective action by. 169-61 France. 89. 92. 96 desertification combat by. 30-40. 162 Freedom and Peace (Poland). 6 difficulty in involving poor people in. 158 -Mt Freire. Paulo. 139 economic development efforts by. 38-10. 163-44 fresh water environmental-oriented civil disobedience by. 166. competition for. 56 167 shortages of. 50, 162 forming alliances between national governments and, seealsogroundwater 172-73 Friends of the F.arth. 153 land tenure struggles by. 161. 165 fuelsrood literacy rate improvement by. 159. 161-62 effects of shortages in. 47-48 paths of action for. 159-60 as limiting factor in carrying capacity, 27. 28 shortcomings of. 162. 168 see alsodeforestation; forests in Third World urban areas, 164 funding see alsoindependent development organizations: Cairo Plan. 39 nongovernmental organizations desertification control. 37 Greenbelt Movement (Kenya). 167. 183 energy efficiency improvement. 178-80 'green councils' (Colombia). 150 environmental research and awareness events, 7 greenhouse diemseeclimate change new approaches to protect ozone layer, 95 Greenland. 80

263 (250) Index

Green Party (West Germany). 7. 158 Brazilian auto export. 99 Greenpeace, 153 foc chlorinated solvent recovery and recycling. 69. Green Revolution. 40, 43. 52 96-91. 95 groundwater deforestation, 181 drawdowns of 42. 48. 50, 63. 73 energy efficiency improvement. 178-80 impact on agricultural productivity of rise in. 51 for land restoration. 34. 36. 39, 182-83 pollution of, by toxic wastes. 70 population control. 191 sea level rise impact on. 73 Inc relocation from polluted areas. 67. 68 Mroho fresh water for removing highly erodible cropland &oat Guatemala. 39. 126 production, 33. 34 water-use, 186-87 habitability we also subsidies decline and human migration. 60. 61-62 independent development organizations. 155-56. 159, increase in environmental refugees as measurement 102. 164, 170: see also grassroots organizations; of. 59-76 nongovernmental organizations toxic waste threatening human. 66-70 India Haiti, 59. 64, 117 auto ownership trends in, WO Hall. Gloria °ludas. 126 community movements in. 156. 162. 164 halons degraded land in. 26. 28, 32. 48. 63. 65 curtailing emissions of. 92 dependence on grazing animals in. 23 international cooperation to control, 18-19. 78, drinking water shortages in. 50 93-96 environment-oriented civil disobedience in. 165 ozone layer depletion caused bv. 78 erasion control in. 35-36 properties and uses of 87 food production trends in. 12. 41, 43. 52, 55. 58 Hanks, John, 28 irrigation use in. 49. 50. 51 Hansen. James, 3. 8. 9 lack of auto emission controls in. 107 harambec movement (Kenya). 158 projected population increase in. 40 Hare. Kenneth F.. 22, 31 recent major droughts in. 21. 32 Harrison. Paul. 167 reforestation in, 38 Harvard Institute of International Development, 120 self-reinforcing cycle of drought and degradation in, Haney, Hal. 146 32 hazardous waste, see waste, hazardous indonesia health agricultural trends study its, 54 AIDS impact on child, 114. 117. 119-20. 125. 127 auto exports by. 100 care changes brought about by AIDS. 130-31 food production trends in. 12. 43. 58 care systems and AIDS in Third World. 11$-119. national land use policy of. 29 126-27 resettlement policy in. 43 effects of autos. 97. 106-9, 109-10 industrial countries effects of ozone layer depletion, 4. 78. 143-44 auto ownership and production concentration in. 98, effects of U's radiation, 82-83 100 NC:Os' training support of community workers fur. carbon emissions by. 9. 71 162-63 CFC reduction strategies in, 93 problems from hazardous waste contamination, 67. consequences of permanent war ecotionly on. 138-41 68. 69. 70 effect of higher grain prices on consumers in, 14 Herdt, Robert 53 environmental policy change in. 8 Higino de Almeida. Ivair, 166 grassroots organizations in. 158 Himalayan watershed. 4. 25-26, 64-65 hazardous waste export by, 70 Hirschman. Albert. 159. 100 military spending by. 134-35. 137, 139. 141 Holland, water engineering expertise OIL 71. 75 population trends in, 18$ Honduras, 39 progress toward AIDS prevention in. 121-25 Huang He (Yellow River). 47 responsibility for climate change of. 8. 9. 75, 77. 78, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) 144. 175 characteristics and transmission metlinds for. toxic disasters in, 69 114-15 see oho individual countries factors rendering people more susceptible so industry infection by. 115 agricultural land and labor drawn to. 44, 46, 47 multiplier effect of, 119 CFC and halon emissions control by, 78 worldwide total of people infected with, 115 CFC recycling by. 89-91 se also AIDS constraints on future growth in auto. 97, 99-100, Hungary, 122 101-2 hydrological cycle. 4. 29- 3'3,04 -66 employment in defense, 134 military expenditures' impact on competitiveness of, Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI), 91, 92 139. 140, 141 inipors, see trade movement of chemical plants to developing countries incentives by, 69 African beef export. 63 ozont-deplction chemical substitute development by. against ea= ownership, in Eastern Europe, 99 95

26.4 Index (251)

Institute for Transportation and Development Policy literacy program in. 139 (Washington. D.C.). 1 1 1 reforestation in. 38. 172 Inter-Ameriran Development Bank. 166 Kumar, Devendra, 160 Inter-American Foundation. 171 IntermediateRange Nuclear Forces treaty. 146 Labour Party (U.K.). 146 International Association of Agricultural Economists. Lal. Rattan, 35 194 land, see cropland: rangeland: tenure. bad International Business Machines (IBM), 89 Latin America international cooperation AIDS in, 114. 117. 123 for AIDS prevention. iI3. 125-28 auto ownership in. 99 an environmental degradation solutions. 141-45 dependence an grazing animals in. 23 to minimiz" climate change. 19-20. 93-96 external debt of. 55 necessity of. for environmental action, 7-8. 16-20. food production and consumption in. 14, 43. 45, 93-96. 151-53 55 for ocean protection. 18 grassroots movements in. 156. 161-62 International Council of Scientific Unions, 19 land degradation causes in. 63 International Fund for Agricultural Development land distribution confrontations in, 165 (IFAD), 40 NCO desertification control network for. 38 International Ccosphere-Biosphere Program. 17 population distribution and trends. 43. 64 International institute of Tropical Agriculture (Nigeria). se. also Central America: individual countries in 35 legislation. lie individu.1 statutes International Jaycees. 194 Libya. 45. 63 International Livestock Center for Africa (ILCA). 36 livestock International Monetary Fund (IMF). 160, 172 consumption of products from. 55 International Society of Tropical Foresters. 194 population and desertification. 27. 28 International Tropical Timber Organization (TI-To). regions dependent an grazing. 22-23 watering holes contribution to desertification. 3 181 loans Iran. 133. 136. 148 access to. 28. 39-40, 164-65 Iraq, 26. 133. 136. 140 land as collateral for. 28 irrigation World Bank, 29 degradation from poor practices of, 26 Louisiana. 68 economics of using. 49 Love Canal (New York). 69 groundwater drawdown from. 12. 13 Lovejoy. Thomas. 192 use and intensity. 26. 49-50. 51. 186 sit also agriculture; eropland: erops; groundwater MacKenzie. Debora, 66 Israel. 178. 186 Madagascar. 15 Italy Maendeleo Ya Wanawake (Kenya). 167 Chernobyl's effects on. 5. 6 Malaysia, 100 green political movement in. 7 Maldive Islands. 75 hazardous waste export by, 70, 144 Mali. 27. 38. 62 rice Field trend ;n. 53 Mann. Jonathan. 113. 12546. 129. 131 toxic disaster in. 69 Mareos, Ferdinand. 172, 173 Margolis- Mac. 66 Japan Mauna Loa observatory (Hawaii). 47 auto emission standards in. 107. 108 Mauritania. 27. 62 CFC use in. 86. 89. 92. 96 McCloy-Zorin Joins Statement of Agreed Principles for cropland conversion protection in. 186 Disarmament Negotiations (1961). 146. 147 grain production and imports by. 44. 45 media, environmental action mobilization role of, 7. hydrogen vehicle fuel R&D in, 103 194 military spending and industrial competitiveness of. Melman, Seymour. 138 141 Mexico multilateral initiatives funding offer by. 20 auto production and ownership trends in. 99-100 population control in. 189, 190. 191 food production and import trends in. 12.43, 45. 58 private auto ownership in, 98, 100 lack of auto emission controls in, 107 rice yield trend in. 53. 35 Middle East transport systems in. I l AIDS characteristics in. 115 Jazairy, Idriss. 40 dependence on grazing animals in. 23 Johansen. Robert. 136 hazardous waste export to. 70 Joslyn. David. 39 irrigation in. 49 see also individual countries in Kennedy. John F.. 146 Midgley. Thomas. Jr.. 85 Kenya military agricultural development project in. 40 conflicts and AIDS spread, 116 grassroots organizations in. 158, 167, 172 conflicts with no victors, 148 growth of women's movement in. 163 growth and increase in wars. 135 imported oil expenditures by. 101 number of people in. 134, 149

265 (252) Index military leonanued) New Zealand. 80 R&D. 139 Nicaragua. 50, 156. 172 resource rechanneling to civilian use from, 149-55 Nicholson. Sharon. 30 spending's impact on budget deficits, 140 Niger warfighting strategies changes by. 156 earrying capacity study of, 27 worldwide expenditures for, 128, 155. 154 desertification in, 25 ur also armaments environmental refugees in, 62 Millions of Trees Club, 38 food insecurity in. 13 minorities. AIDS among. 115. 117. 125 land use pattern changes in. 62 Mintz. Y.. 30 rangeland restoration in. 36 Mintzer. Irving. 177 women's movement growth in, 163 modeling Nile River AIDS transmission spread and impact. 120-21 degradationa.watershed. 65 atmospheric climate change. 3. 9. 11 15. 20, 30-31, disputes over water rights of. 142 47-48, 81.96 subsidence impact on. 72 UV radiation. 82 nitrogenfixing trees, 35. 185, 186 Molina. Mario. 78 Noble. David. 140 monitoring nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) forest status, 4. 26. 29, 51 78, 70, 147, 180. 184 AIDS prevention programs of. 123. 125. 126 ozone layer changes. 78, 7C-81 alternative defense policy development by. 146 satellite. 78. 79. 147 environmental policies influence by, 153 seismic nuclear testing. 147 UNEP cooperation with. 58, 39 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the yr also grassroots organizations; independent Ozone Layer. 18-19. 78 development organizations loopholes in. 93-94 North America need to move beyond. 93-96 AIDS in, 114. 117 signatories to. 93. climate change effects in. 3-4. 10, 15-16. 29-30 UNEP work on. 152 dependence on grain exports from. 57-58 Morgun. Fyodor, 68 depletion of ozone layer over. 77 Morocco, 45. 63 grain production and trade by. 12. IS. 29-50, 45. 57 mortality impacts of recent severe droughts in, 4. 21. 24, 41. AIDS effeet on infant, 114. 117. 119-20 42, 43. 52. 55. 57 auto's contribution to. 109-10 transport systems in. I l l caused by climate change. me also individual countries in growth in military power and increase in. 138-36 Norway infant. 13. 14. 114, 117. 119-20. 161 CFC use reductions in, 89. PO Mortimore, Michael. 52 environmental policy change in. 8. 19. 20. 194 Moscow. University of. soil erosion laboratory. 47 NOZE 11 (National Ozone Expedition). 79 Mozambique. 13 nuclear power Mrazek, Robert. 147 accident potential from using, 176 Mulwa, Francis, 159 accidents at reactors producing. 5-6. 59. 69-70. 144 Chernobyl's effect on attitudes toward. 5-6 Naa movement (Burkina Faso). 168 international disputes over use of. 144 Nairobi conference (1977). 22. 57-58 nuclear weapons. see armaments: military National Aeronautics and Space Administration. V.S. Nyoni. Sithembiso, 159 (NASA) climate change evidence from. S. A. 9 Ocean Drilling Program. 25 Goddard Institute for Space Studies. S. 184 °den. Michael Dee. 140 ozone depletion research by. 4. 80. 81 Ogallala aquifer, 50 Ozone Trends Panel. 81, 82 oil National Association of Small Farmers (Colombia). 136 alternative fuels to. 101-3. 108-9. 178 National Center for Atmospheric Res h (Colorado). crisis's effect on auto production, use, and efficiency, 15 98. 100. 101. 103-4 National Council of Women (Kenya). 167. 183 trade. 100-1 National Irrigation Administration (Philippines,. 172 see also fossil fuels National Science Foundation. U.S. (NSF), 82 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and National Wastelands Development Board (India). 48 Development (OECD). 105. 104. 106 natural gas, see fossil fuels Organization of African Unity, 70 Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). 147 Our Common Future. 142 Nepal Oxfam. 168. 171 deforestation of Himalayan watershed in. 4. 25-26. ozone. 77-96 64-65 chemical causes of depletion in layer of. 77. 78. populated marginal disasterprone areas in. 64. 65 79-81 Netherlands. the. 89 hole in layer of, over Antarctica. 18. 77. 78-81 Newcombe. Kenneth. 47 impacts of depletion in layer of. 4. 77-78, 80. 143-44 New Smallest. 66 international cooperation to protect layer of. 18. 78 New York State. Department of Health. 67 reducing emissions of chemicals depleting. 4. 88-93

2C6 index (253)

UV radiation effect on ground-level. 84 toxie chemical production promotion, 68 set also chlorofluorocarbons: halons trade-offs between military and social or environmenal. 150 Pakistan, 26, 37, 163-64 pollution, air Palawan Center for Appropriate Rural Technology alternative fuels' effect on, 109 (Philippines), 160 reducing transponation- caused, 106-9 Panama. 39 transboundary. 4-3, 6. 18-20. 142 Pan American Development Foundation. 39 urban residents exposure to high levels of, 60, 68 Panos Institute, 122 population pastoralists. 23, 62-63 AIDS' impact on productive members of. 120 pastureland, see rangeland desertification control by slowing growth in. 40 Paz. Octavio, 161 displaced. 59-76 perestroika, 99 grain production trends in relation to, 55 Persian Gulf, see Middle East: individual countries growth and food insecurity, 12, 13. 14.42-43 surrounding growth and land degradation, 27-29, 47, 63, 64 Peru living in disaster-prone areas, 64-65, 66 food insecurity in, 14 NGOs' ellons toward slowing growth in, 163 grassroots organizations in, 161. 162 relocation of. caused by hazardous waste Villa El Salvador's success in, 161 contamination, 66.67, 68 pesticides, see agriculture stabilizing growth in, as element of global aetion Petroferm (Florida). 91 plan, 188-92 Petrovsky, Vladimir F.. 148 see also family planning Philippines Population and Community Development Association conversion of flooded to irrigated riceland in, 51 (Thailand). 163 erosion control in. 38 Pradervand. Pierre. 172 grassroots organizations in. 160, 161, 164 Pravda. 68 inequitable land distribution in, 28 precipitation, acid. 6. 142 'people's power revolution in. 173 Presidential Commission on the Human projected population increase in, 40 Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic. U.S 129 renewable energy use in. 178 private sector, see independent development unnatural disasters in, 66 organizations: nongovernmental organizations Plan of Action to Combat Desertification, 22. 31, 37-38 private voluntary organizations (PV0s), see independent Pokrovskiy. Vadim. 130 development organizations: nongovernmental Poland. 5, 6. 68 organizations poliey agricultural. 16, 29.43-44. 45. 58. 60. 63. 184-88 Protocol on the Reduction of Sulphur Emissions agricultural. U.S.. 42. 43, 46. 48. 56-57 (Helsinki). 6. 18 elimate change's effect on, 8. 16. 72-73. 74. 94-95. Public Health Service, U.S.. 125 175-80 public opinion development, and sea level rise. 72-73, 74 AIDS misperceptions in, 122. 123 effects of industrial countries' industrial. 75 on arms reduction. 145. 147 Federal Reserve monetary. 140 on nuclear power use. 5-6, 176 foreign, in relation to development agencies, 171 toward environmental threats. 4-8, 89, 194 foreign, in relation to transboundary air pollution. 17-18 Rahman. Sheik Mujibur (Bangladesh), 65 future energy, 175-80 Rainforest Action Network, 153 future forest, 181-84 Ramo. Simon. 139 grassroots mobilization's support by national rangelands government. 172-73 degradation of. 23. 27 green movement's influence on. 7 restoration methods for. 36-37. 39 Indonesian resettlement. 43 Raskin. Marcus, 147 innovative fuel efficiency and transponation. 98, 106, Reagan. Ronald. 105. 108 112 Red Cross. 126 of international development agencies. 165. 166, reforestation 168-72 as component of future forest policy, 181-84 international environmental degradation and national by grassroots organizations. 167 security, 141-45 promotion of. 38, 39 international insecurity fostered by national security. see also deforestation: forests 133-41 refugees, environmental, 59-76 for land rehabilitation encouragement. 33-34. 36. 37 biological cycle disruption leading to. 48. 59-63. 64 nonprovocative defense. 146 created by unnatural disasters. 64-66 ozone-layer depletion control, 94-95 from hazardous waste site eontaminalion. 66-68 population control. 188-92 number of, 60, 75-76 public opinion's influence on environmental, 5-8. 89. from rising sea level, 71-75 194 from toxic disasters, 5.68 -70 Third World auto production and ownership. 99. renewable energy. 103. 109. 177-78, 180 100. 111-12 Replogle. Michael, 111

2R 7 (254) Index

research coluptikoq AIDS letting in. 122 agricultoral. 35. 40. 187 t equences of permanent war economy On, 138-39 AIDS. 116. 120-21 environmental awakening in. 6-7 on auto fuel alternatives and elliciencs 102.3. 103. tt vi t ontnental refugees in. 5. 59. CO 108 fossil fuel use in. 9. 107. 173 on Bangladeshi social and economic stratilicalitm. fuel efficiency in. 103 159 independent community groups in. 138 biotechnological. 54 international cooperatiun proposal by. 17 On climate change. 19. 95 lack of moo emission controls in. 107 on fossil fitel cauted health damage. 106 nuclear power in. 6. 59. 69 on hydrological tytle. 31 ozone layer depletion over. 77-78. 80 on military products. 139 pollution threats in. 4-5. 26. 08 on ntilitary to cisiliau reS0111-(1,. (WIWI non, 150 private auto production and ownership in. 98-99 on ozone laser depletion. 71M1 specie's, extinction of, 4. 10 on sea level rite. 72-74 Sri Lanka, 156. 160, 104. 16$ Cy radiation. 84 standards Research Foundation for Science. Terbno logs and a fuel economy and pollution. 97-98. 105. 106. Natural Retources Policy (India). 32 107 Resotirces for Future (REF). 84 CFC and halms emitsion 78, 90 Rotary International. 194 Clean Air Act-mandated. 109 Rowland. Sherwood. 78. $1 National Ambient Air Cbiatity, 106 Steint.eck John. 60 Satati Eneas, 31 Stockholm group. 107 Sale. Kirkpatrick. 110 Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SAI.T). 143 salinizalion cropland degraded In. 26. 51 Stratospheric Protection Program (Ktpan). 90 saltwater intouion. C-3111/31 1,1V tint IC/el rise. 10-11 Strong. Maurice. 20 Salvation Arniv, 131 subsidence. tea level rise and. 71-72. 73. 74 Santey. Jose. 181 subsidies Sarvodaya Shrainadana (Sri Lanka). 156. 16(1 agricultural. 46. 32. 33 Scandinavia. 6. 17-18. 78 :Hilo use encouragement. 110-13 sea level rise. from climate change. 10-11. 71 -73 Brazilian ethanol fuel production. 101. 102 security VI also incentives food. 4. 12-16. 162, 184-8$ Sudan global. 145-33 crop Field increase in. 40 national. 133-36 nitrogen4ixing trees used in. 35 Self-Employed 1Voirien's Association (SI'.VA) (India). unnatural disasters in. 65. 60 164 Superbarrio (Mexico). 161 self-help groups. tzz grassrotos organizations: Superfund 67 independent development organizations: Survisal International. 133 itongoven nt,tl organizaii tttt s stistainabilitv Senegal. 27. 35. 138 agricultural, 49-50. 51. 430 -134 Serrano, Angeles, 173 grassroots organizations' efforts toward. 153, 134-68 sextons transtintied diieam's ISTD:o. 115. 127 of world food production. 42. 43-14 Sharp. Gene. 132 Sweden Shevardnadze. Eduard. 17, 192 CFC and halon emission reduction efforts in. 89, 92. Shiva. Vandana, 167 95 Sliukla. j.. 30 green political mosement in. 7 Sivard. Ruth. 135 nuclear power plant closings in. 6 Social Democratic Party (Wes; Germany), 146 Swedish International Devoopment Authority, 171 soil. v. agriculture: erotiontoil Switzerland. 89 Solar Energy- Research !minute. U.S.. 92 Ssr-Darya Riser (Susie' Cnion). 50-51 Solomon. Susan. 79 Syria 26. 37 Somalia. 13 South Africa. 2$ Taiwan South America. we 1.3iiis America: indiV14111:11coot auto exporis by. 100 in grain production and imports by. 44. 53 South Korea g1:14,51"410IS organizations in. 164 auto cenitsions standards in. 107 tax grain production and imports hs. 4. 33 on auto ownership in Eastern F.urope. 99 grassroots organizationt in. 164 'carbon.' 178 imported oil expenditures by. 101 environmental. on automobiles. I l l national-local alliance in. 172 fuel efficiency encouragement. 106 Soviet Cnion to fond reforestation program:. 18243 abandonment of eroded land in, 46, 48 technology agriculture in. 43. 46. -17, 48. 49. 30-51. 185 agricultural. 42, 44. 46. 55-33. 184. 185-86. 187 CFC use in, 93-94. 96 auto fuel alternatives and fuel efficiency, 101, 102-6, changing attitud io United Nations h.-, 19. 20. 148 108-9

268 Index (255

CFC and baton reduction, 78. 90-91.94-95 training global insecurity and increase in sophistication of communityity health workers, 162-63 military. 135 political organization. 159 Green Revolution. 40 sexism in programs of. 29 land rehabilitation. 21. 33, 34, 35, 96 sir also education military application of new, 135. 145 TransAfrican Highway. 116 pollution control. 68 transportation renewable energy. 177-78. 180 air pollution caused by. 106 as a tool for Third World rural change. 160 alternatives to private ammo-centered system of. Tend ler. Judith, 164 109-12 tenure, land energy efficiency improvement for. 100-1. 103-6. degradation and. 28-29 179 lack of secure 27-29 oil need for, 100-1 land restoration and, 36. 39-10 private auto-centered ayscems of. 97, 98-100 self help groups' fight for, 161 err alit' automobiles Teramura, Alan. 83 Tropical Agricultural Research and Training Center Terrence Higgins Trust. 123 (CATIE) (Costa Rica). 39 testing Tropical Forestry Action Plan, 184 difficulties in AIDS. 115-16 Tunisia. 38.45. 63 mandatory AIDS, 122 toxicity. of CFC replacement chemicals. 91-92 Uganda. 13 Thailand ultraviolet (UV) radiation, effects of increase in. 81.85 auto exports by. 100 Unifoam (Switzerland). 90 conversion of flooded to irrigated ricctand in. 51 Union Carbide. 69, 91 imported oil expenditures by. 101 United Kingdom (U.K.). 55, 89, 92, 96 lack of secure land tenure in, 28 Visited Nations local subsidence in Bangkok, 7? Children% Fund (UNICEF). 192 Third World Conference on Desertification (UNCOD). 22. 31 agricultural trends in. 14. 33-37, 47, 51. 53-55 debt owed to. 20, 148 60-64 Development Programme. 32. 33-34 AIDS' impact on. 115. 118-21, 125-28 General Assembly, 146. 147 air pollution in. 9. 84 peacekeeping efforts by, 148-49 CFC use and control its, 87, 89.93. 108 strengthening of. to deal with global commons. 20 child health in, 114. 117, 119-20. 127 Sudano-Sahelian Office. 38 climate change's disproportionate imp.,;.t on. 10-11 sustainable energy projects backing by, 179 71- 75,95 -96 World Food Council. 14 debt problem in. $2, 57 err also additional specific programs and organizations demographics of, 47, 48, 61. 159. 190 United Nations Environment Progri mmc 11.1NEF9 energy efficiency in, 100-1. 103-1 179-80 CFC control plan by. 18. 93 food security trends in. 12-14, 33-37. 47. 58. desertification trends and control by. 22. 37, 61. 63 60-64 Global Environment Monitoring System. 184 forced urbanization in. 48. 61 international cooperation with. 152 industrial world's hazardous waste and chemical mass migrations and urbaniration problems reported plants in, 69-70 by. 61 land degradation issues in. 32. 39-97, 47.48. 61. Soviet proposal to transform. 19 64-66 United Stases land distribution and tenure problems in. 28-29 agricultural sector hs, 25. 29, 42. 46-47. 48. 49. 50. largescale NGOs' cooperation with independent 51.54 groups in. 162-64 AIDS in. 116. 117. 122. 123, 124-25, 129 military conflicts and expenditures in. 133-35. air pollution and emission standards in. 6. 9. 84. 106. 137-38. 147-18 107. 108 transport in. 99 -101. 111-12 CFC use and reduction in, 18. 86, 89. 92, 96 sir also individual countries climate change effects in. 3-4. 10, 11, 15-16, 18. '30 percent club'. 6. 18. 152 29-30. 73 Thomas. Lee. 108 consequences of permatiem war economy on. 138. Three Mile Island. 70 139-41 Times Beach. Missouri, 67 debt seolement to United Nations by. 20 Tolba. Mostafa, 37. 96 energy me and efficiency in. 9. 100. 103. 104. 108. Toronto climate conference (1988), 8, 19, 180 175, 178 toxic WSW:. set Wa bazardous food track and production by 4. 15-16, 53. 57-58 trade grassroots organizations in. 158 arms, 134-35. 136 hazardous waste disposal in, 67 automobile, 99-100 impacts of recent severe droughts in. 4l, 42, 43. deficit, U.S.. 140-11 57 grain. 4. 14. 15. 16. 41. 44-46. 57-58 migration to, 64 in hazardous waste, 70. 144 nuclear accidents its. 70 oil. 100-1 ozone layer depletion over. 4. 18

2J9 (256) Index

United States (continued) W 33333en public concern toward environment and policy AIDS transmission to babies from. 114. (17. 119-20 change in. 4. 8. 29 role of, in grassroots community movements. 158. trade deficit of 140-41 161, 162, 163, 164, 167 transport sector in, 98. 100. 103, 104, 107, 108 slaws of. 29.40, 158, 163 UV research in. 84 Wong, Dattik James, 167 set also specific agencies Woods Hole Research Center (Massachusetts). 72-73, Ural Mountains, 68 184 Uruguay. 80 World Rank AIDS treatment study by. 119 Vermont. 66 community organizations' opinion of. 169 vetiver grass (khio). 35-36 environmental deterioration study by. 27 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone food security report by. 13. 14. 185 Layer, 18 sustainability of projects funded by. 29. I 11. 166, Vietnam. 8 169, 179, 181 Village Awakening movement (India). 156 Tropical Forestry Action Plan sponsorship by. 184 Virgin Lands project (Soviet Union). 46 World Commission on Environment and Development. voluntary agencies (Volags), see independent 142 development organizations: nongovernmental World Food Programme (W FP). 34 organizations World Health Organization (WHO). AIDS work by. 113. 115. 116, 119, 122, 125-26 uvildsterben. 6. 106 World Meteorological Organization, 19 (Vadirgion Post, 68. 68 World Altlitaly and Social Expenditures 1987-88, 135 waste. hazardous World Neighbors (United States). 38 disposal of. 5. 67. 89 World Resources institute (WRI) (United States). 177. environmental refugees from. 66-70 184 export to Third World of. 70. 144 World Summit of Health Ministers (London). 129 Weiss. Ted. 149 World Wide Fund for Nature. 28 Western Europe World Wildlife Fund, 153 AIDS in. 114. 117, 122, 123. 124 air pollution in cities of. 84 Yellow River Conservancy Commission. 47 environmental cooperation in. 17 Yellowstone National Park. 4 food production and trade in. 55 yields, crop Green Party influence in. 7 decreased 12. 13, 29, 20, 53 nuclear power disputes in. 144 physical constraints on. 53. 54 population growth rates in. 46 relationship between grain prices and, 52. 54 transport sector in. 98. 100 Yunus. Muhammad, 165 see also Eastern Europe: Europe West Germany. see Federal Republic of Germany Zaire. 120-21 White, Lynn, 7 Zambia, 120 Wisconsin. University of. 105 Zimbabwe. 158. 164, 172. 173

270 A lasting victory over land degradation will remain a distant dream without social and economic relbrms. In the area ofchild health, AIDS has the greatest potential to erode hard-won health gains in the Third World. A global effort to cut world population growth in half by the year 2000 does not seem out of the question. The five warmest years of the past century have all fallen in this decade. When arms take precedence over needs basic to human development, people are not secure. Avoiding destructive climate change will require a fundamental reordering of national energy priorities. In the end, it is we as individuals who are being tested. This sixth annual examination of the world's ecological health by the Worldwateli Institute comes at a time when people are worried about record hot summers, polluted beaches, and drought- induced food shortages. This rising concern results from personal experiences in 1988 reinforced by the news that global warming has arrived, that tropical forests are disappearing much faster than we thought, and that a thinning of the earth's protective ozone layer threatens the health of people everywhere. The 1989 edition warns that if we don't act quickly to reverse the environmental trends undermining the human prospect, environmental deterioration and social disintegration will begin to feed on each other. State of the World 1989includes a global action plan aimed at mobilizing the world community to join together and fight these problems. In this new era of incre' sed awareness and concern, it is time to initiate major efforts to slow population growth, meet future food needs, reverse deforestation, and improve energy efficiency. The authors note the role that grass-roots organizations can play in such efforts and urge a strengthening of the capabilities of international institutions. Other chapters focus on the problems of land degradation, ozone depletion, overrelianci on automobiles, and the global AIDS epidemic. In addition, the report describes how environmental deterioration is creating a new class of refugees and is forcing societies to turn from a narrow, military view of national security to a broader goal of enhancing global security. Cooperative efforts for sustainable development must accompany the world's halting steps toward disarmament and economic conversion. State of the Worldnow appears in most iaajor languages, including Chinese, Arabic, and English. The most recent translations are Italian and Russian. Last year the report was used by corporate planners and government policymakers and was adopted for use in 751 courses in U.S. colleges and universities. TheLos Angeles Timessays. "Without being preachy,State of the World is simultaneously an indictment of global stewardship and an exhortation for reform."

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