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DISH TV INDIA LIMITED BSE: 543639 | Sector: MEDIA – DTH 12th May 2015 DISH TV INDIA LIMITED BSE: 543639 | Sector: MEDIA – DTH View - BUY CMP : Rs. 77.45 Target Price: Rs. 109 BUSINESS BACKGROUND KEYFACE DATA VALUE Rs 1.00 Dish TV is India’s largest direct-to-home (DTH) company and part of the country’s DIVD YIELD % NA biggest media conglomerate the ZEE Group. As of December 31, 2014, net subscriber base was at 12.5mn. Dish TV has on its platform more than 470 channels 52 WK HI/LOW 89/43 and services. It uses the NSS-6 satellite platform which is unique in the Indian subcontinent owing to its automated power control and contoured beam which makes it suitable for use in ITU K and N rain zones ideally suited for India’s tropical NSE CODE DISHTV climate. Dish TV also has a vast distribution network of more than 2,080 distributors and 185,000 dealers spanning 8,736 towns in the country. It has six 24*7 call BSE CODE DISHYV centres catering to 11 different languages to take care of subscriber requirements at any point of time. MARKET CAP RS 8252 CRS INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Steady improvement in Q3 FY15 Performance – SHAREHOLDING PATTERN On a cumulative basis,Dish TV’s net subscriber base stands at 12.5mn. PROMOTERS - 65% Incremental HD subscriber additions (of total additions) surged to 17% (15% in Q2FY15). On the other hand quite notably the Free cash flows stood at Rs 29.8 BANKS, MFs & DIIs - 5% crs as compared to Rs 11 crs in Q2FY15. FIIs - 23% Ad Spends dipped 12.1% YoY and 29.9% QoQ to Rs 12.4 crs After-tax loss stood at Rs 2.9 crs vis-à-vis loss of Rs 38.2 crs in Q3FY14 and loss of Rs 15.1 PUBLIC - 7% crs in Q2FY15. KEY FUNDAMENTALS Dish intends to implement differential pricing across cities as a fillip to its ARPU YE FY15 FY16 FY17 while the complete benefit of price hikes would also be visible in the coming vScore:quarters. vScoreSince the (Value addition Score would) is our be proprietarymainly in Phasecompany III andrating IV system markets, f the blended ARPU is expected to grow at 4.3% CAGR (FY14- 17E) to Rs 186 Rev Gr% 14 14 16 Strong subscriber addition to continue PBT Gr% 189 Dish TV has reported strong subscriber addition of 1.12mn in 9MFY15, PAT Gr% 180 management expects the trend to continue. Management expects net subscriber addition of 1.5mn in FY16 (without digitization push). Strong addition EPS Gr% 180 on Zing and routine additions on Dish TV to drive subscriber additions. Competition is yet to replicate product offering like Zing. Roe % Further digitization of Phase III in FY16 is expected give additional boost to subscriber additions. Currently, Zing contributes 17% of overall subscriber RoCE % 21 26 32 additions. Precise Advice EPS (Rs) 0.52 1.45 Assured… P/E(x) ARPU growth aided by package price hikes – During FY15, apart from routine price hikes taken by Dish TV, package price increase by MSO’s for digital cable subscribers gave further push to DTH operators. Further, differential pricing taken in metros has seen smooth transition till date. Extent of annual price hikes would increase if MSO’s implement package wise billing and raise prices across digital subscribers. ARPU growth in FY16 will be driven by 1) routine annual hike and 2) differential pricing in metros. We estimate ARPU CAGR of 3% over FY15-17E. Zing ropes in Tamil Nadu, more states to be added in future – Dish TV’s sub brand Zing has ventured into Tamil Nadu, after West Bengal, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and Tripura. It has introduced 4 packages in Tamil Nadu with base pack Vanakkam at INR99 with 21 Tamil channels. Other packs are Vanakkam+ Tamil Brahmandam, Anandham and Kondattam priced at RS 139, Rs 220 and Rs 350 (including taxes), respectively. Vanakkam+ Tamil pack will have Tamil entertainment channels besides the 21 channels offered in base pack. Hindi + English Movies + Sports + Others channels will be offered in Anandham pack. Kondattam being the highest pay pack will offer complete Hindi + English GEC + Lifestyle channels. In Tamil Nadu, Zing digital settop box is available for Rs 1,099 Long Term Potential of DTH Market in India looks very strong – DTH industry has come a long way in the last ten years. It all began on October 2, 2003 when Dish TV, the first company to launch DTH television services, decided to tread slowly. Instead of taking on cable operators head-on in metros and cities, where most subscribers were, Dish TV decided to focus on rural markets, remote areas and the outskirts of some cities where cable network wasn't available or very poor. Ten years later, with a little over 37 million customers and 23% of TV households, DTH has successfully challenged the might of cable television with superior quality of broadcasting and a clear technological edge. And, they have provided the much needed revenue for broadcasters (half of their subscription revenues), enabling them to reinvest and expand their channels and offer better programming. DTH is adding about 8.5 million customers a year, four times more than cable additions. Media Partners Asia (MPA), the Hong Kong-based consultancy, says by 2020, 42% of TV homes will be on DTH. With DTH now taking digital cable operators head-on after a digital addressable system (DAS) has been implemented in 42 cities, the competition will become even fiercer. DTH unknowingly also played a key role in helping the government to push through DAS, despite stiff resistance from hundreds of thousands of small cable operators. Under DAS, the government had set deadlines for conversion of analog to digital, which began with the four metros. This would bring transparency for multi-system operators (MSOs) and broadcasters, who'd know how many paying subscribers they actually have. Earlier, local cable operators under-reported the subscriber base so that they did not have to share the subscription fee with broadcasters and MSOs. Going ahead India’s DTH pay-TV sector is expected to generate revenues of $ 4.04 billion by 2018, a CAGR of 19% from $ 1.71 billion in 2014 and by 2023 the sector will generate revenues of $ 5.6 billion. Digital TV (DTV) has started to gain widespread acceptance across consumer households in India, driven largely by the growth of DTH satellite pay-TV platforms. Data from MPA indicates that DTV penetration, including digital cable and digital free and pay DTH platforms, has grown from less than 1 per cent in 2006 to 46 per cent as of 31 December 2013. The six DTH pay-TV operators in the market have in aggregate contributed to 23% penetration as of 31 December 2014, providing a level of market leadership due to superior capitalisation and a stronger consumer focus built around product strength and innovation, including tiering, HDTV and DVR services. Presently out of the six DTH players Dish Tv continues to be the market leader with a market share of over 30%, followed by Tata Sky at around 20% and Airtel at around 15% with the rest 35% spread between the other market players. Coming to Dish TV, it has about 1.2 crore subscribers & is adding about a lakh subscribers per month, which is an average run rate for last six months. Dish TV has now acquired the mass and hence can possibly see about 2 crore subscribers in the next 3-4 years. More importantly this is a perpetuity business model. Once you have a cable connection in your house you don’t end up withdrawing it or removing it. The ARPU that Dish TV generates right now is about Rs 170-180. A cable TV connection does not cost less than Rs 300-350 minimum. So, the ARPU can only go up. In terms of the opportunity a lot of digitisation will now happen in the tier II towns and all of those places. Putting physical wire there is difficult. Dish TV specialises in the rural, semi-urban areas. So, the opportunity for Dish TV as compared to other players is far higher. GST is the next catalyst for DTH Players including Dish TV – Most DTH operators believe that they may be able to pass part of the current entertainment tax of 7-8% to consumers after implementation of GST (Goods and Services tax) as it will rationalize the tax regime. Also a part of the tax may be subsumed under GST, as per these companies. We yet await clarity on GST before quantifying the impact for Dish TV but the implementation of GST from April 2016 will have a significant positive impact on the operating profitability of all DTH players including Dish TV. Business Outlook & Stock Valuation Dish TV offers the best way to play the digitization theme in India, in our view. The company is at a critical inflection point in terms of turning net profit positive over the next couple of quarters. Also, Zing, the segmented offering for regional markets, is gaining strong traction and setting up the base for the company ahead of Phase 3 & 4 digitisation. Also Dish TV has announced the implementation of differential pricing for subscribers in four key metro cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Pune and Kolkata. The company has raised the tariffs across all packs for new as well as existing subscribers by Rs10 in all the four key metros. Dish TV plans to replicate the move in DAS Phase II cities, subsequent to the roll-out in the four metro cities. We believe that initiatives taken in the recent past has started to reap fruits with strong subscriber addition, package price increase and strict control over content cost.
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