CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY & ADAPTATION DESKTOP STUDY : STEWARD PRIORITY ZONES

February 2013

Nimba Highlands (Source: UNESCO) Table of Contents ACRONYMS ...... ii

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

1.1 BACKGROUND ...... 1

1.2 PURPOSE OF THE ASSESSMENT ...... 2

1.3 APPROACH AND METHODS ...... 2

2. DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT ...... 3

2.1 ECONOMIC CONTEXT ...... 3

2.2 SOCIAL CONTEXT ...... 6

2.3 ECOLOGICAL CONTEXT ...... 7

2.4 NON-CLIMATE STRESSES ...... 12

3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY ...... 13

3.1 IMPACTS OF CONCERN ...... 13

3.2 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ...... 15

3.3 AT-RISK SECTORS ...... 16

4. ADAPTATION PLANNING , PRIORITIES , AND PROGRAMS ...... 20

4.1 ADAPTATION PLANNING WITHIN THE STEWARD COUNTRIES AND PRIORITY ZONES ...... 20

4.2 ADAPTATION PRIORITIES WITHIN THE STEWARD COUNTRIES ...... 21

4.3 SUMMARY OF ONGOING ADAPTATION PROGRAMS ...... 23

5. GAPS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 26

ANNEX A. CURRENT ADAPTATION PROGRAMS ...... 31

ANNEX B. PROPOSED ADAPTATION PRIORITY ACTIONS ...... 36

ANNEX C. DESKTOP STUDY TERMS OF REFERENCE ...... 41

ANNEX D. POTENTIAL PZ 3 WONEGIZI (L IBERIA ) AND ZIAMA (GUINEA ) ...... 43

BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 45

i Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones ACRONYMS AMZ Agroforestry Management Zones AUDER United Actors for Rural Development (AUDER) CCAA Climate Change Adaptation Africa (IDRC) CC-DARE Climate Change Adaptation and Development Initiative CEGENS Centre de Gestion de l'Environnement des Monts Nimba et Simandou, Environmental Management Authority for Mounts Nimba and Simandou (Guinea) CILSS Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel

CO 2 Carbon Dioxide DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (United Kingdom) ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation EPAL Environmental Protection Agency of Liberia FFI Flora and Fauna International GCM General Circulation Model GHG Greenhouse Gas GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GIS Geographic Information System GPS Global Positioning System HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus IDP Internally Displaced Person IDRC International Development Research Center (Canada) IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature LDC Least Developed Country LCDF Least Developed Country Fund (GEF) MAEEEF Ministère de l’agriculture, de l’élevage, de l’environnement, des eaux et forets (Guinea) MEEF Ministère de l’Environnement des Eaux et Forêts (Côte d’Ivoire) MMGE Ministère des mines, de la géologie et de l’environnement (Guinea) MRU Mano River Union MTA Ministry of Transport and Aviation (Sierra Leone) NAPA National Adaptations Programs of Action NGO Non-Governmental Organization NTFP Non-Timber Forest Product OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OKNP Outamba-Kilimi National Park PES Payment for Ecosystem Services PPP Purchasing Power Parity PRIDE Programme Intégré pour le Développement de l’Entreprise en Guinée PZ Priority Zone ROECCR Regional Office of Environment and Climate Change Response (USAID/West Africa) SMFG Société de Fer de Guinée STEWARD Sustainable and Thriving Environments for West Africa Regional Development SWAC Sahel and West Africa Club UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

ii Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization USAID United States Agency for International Development USFS United States Forest Service USG United States Government USGS United States Geological Survey WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene

iii Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND The Sustainable and Thriving Environments for West Africa Regional Development (STEWARD) program is a forest conservation and sustainable livelihoods program focusing on transboundary Priority Zones (PZs) in the Upper Guinean Forest ecosystem (Figure 1). The Upper Guinean Forest is one of West Africa’s eight major biomes and originally covered an estimated 1,265,000km 2 across six West African states – Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. It has an estimated 9,000 species of vascular plants, including a high percentage (25%) of endemic species. Most of this ecosystem has been converted to agricultural uses, with only about 10% of its original area remaining. The STEWARD landscape continues to be degraded and fragmented by unsustainable agricultural practices, mining, and other threats (USAID2008b).

Figure 1. STEWARD program priority zones. PZ 1, upper left: Sierra Leone (Outamba-Kilimi National Park), Guinea (Madina Oula, Soya and Ouré Kaba sub-prefectures); and, PZ 2, lower right: Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire (Mount Nimba), Liberia (Nimba Nature Reserve).

STEWARD was conceptualized in 2005-2006 as USAID’s regional program for conserving the biodiversity of the Upper Guinean Forest of West Africa, and it is currently (2011-2015) in its third phase – the ‘Implementation Phase’. STEWARD is funded by the USAID/West Africa (WA) Regional Office of Environment and Climate Change Response (ROECCR) and is implemented by the U.S. Forest Service Office of International Programs. The Development Objective of the STEWARD Program is phrased as

1 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Resilience of biodiverse ecosystems and human communities in target areas is maintained and strengthened and contributes directly to the ROECCR development objective.

The overall goal of STEWARD is to enhance economic opportunity, peace-building and well-being through the sustainable management of forest landscapes in targeted priority zones (PZ) in the Upper Guinea Forest Ecosystem and has three objectives: 1. Conserve biodiversity and improve rural livelihoods in critical transboundary landscapes in the Upper Guinean Forest Ecosystem; 2. Produce harmonized policies and legal frameworks for natural resource management in a regional context; and, 3. Contribute to sub-regional and national strategic plans on climate change in the Mano River Union states. The STEWARD program conforms to USAID’s Biodiversity Code and enables USAID/WA to meet its commitments under the ‘biodiversity earmark’. STEWARD’s site-based work focuses in PZs that were identified based on their “high” biological significance; their transboundary locations; their potential for integrating conservation, livelihoods and natural resource management (NRM); and, because of their political, economic and social significance. These PZs are the subject of this climate vulnerability and adaptation (V & A) assessment (Figure 1): PZ 1: Sierra Leone (Outamba-Kilimi National Park), Guinea (Madina Oula, Soya and Ouré Kaba sub-prefectures); and, PZ 2: Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire (Mount Nimba), Liberia (Nimba Nature Reserve).

Climate change trends affecting West Africa include higher temperatures; reduced rainfall; increased drought and storm frequency and intensity; rising sea levels; shorter agricultural seasons; and, the expansion and emergence of pests and diseases. USAID’s adaptation investments will assist West Africa to identify and reduce its vulnerability to such climate change impacts, in order to continue to achieve its development objectives. The broad goal of climate change adaptation is to create societies that are resilient to adverse climate change impacts and have the ability to rise to both the challenges and the opportunities presented by a changing climate. USAID activities that support adaptation should be built upon climate vulnerability and adaptation analyses; this desktop study constitutes an assessment being undertaken by USAID/West Africa.

1.2 PURPOSE OF THE ASSESSMENT The report will be used to inform possible future USAID/West Africa-funded activities addressing climate change adaptation challenges in and near STEWARD priority zones. The report will also serve as a model for other USAID missions that are undertaking similar processes, by demonstrating what kinds of sources to review, what level of detail is appropriate, and what kind of logic to use to set priorities and focus in on particular sectors or gaps.

1.3 APPROACH AND METHODS This is part of a priority-setting exercise to inform USAID/West Africa for adaptation programming. This desktop study will summarize the climate change trends and projections relevant for STEWARD priority zones; describe the key climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation challenges; identify relevant national priorities and areas where those are not already being addressed by other donors; and, present and justify recommendations for sectors, actors, and/or partners that should be the focus of climate change activities carried out by the STEWARD program.

2 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones 2. DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT

2.1 ECONOMIC CONTEXT The STEWARD countries are endowed with major water, forest, mineral, and fisheries resources, and a climate favorable to agriculture. These countries remain among the poorest in the world, however, due to a combination of political instability, civil conflict, dilapidated infrastructure, limited governance capacity and rampant corruption. These factors have limited foreign investment and resulted in highly dynamic economic conditions. For instance, annual GDP growth rates in 2011 varied considerably by country (Table 1), but GDP growth rates have also fluctuated dramatically between years. Economic growth is driven principally by the agriculture, industry (primarily mining) and service sectors. The agricultural and mining sectors rely heavily on international prices and demand, and the continued health and availability of natural resources. To the extent that these international and national forces are affected by climate change, so too will they affect economies in the STEWARD countries.

Table 1. Economic and related development indicators for the STEWARD countries. Côte d’Ivoire Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone GDP, PPP, 2011 a $36.53B $11.61B $1.79B $5.16B GDP, PPP per capita, 2011 a $1,600 $1,100 $500 $900 GDP annual growth rate, 2011 b -4.7% 3.6% 8.5% 6% a Proportion of GDP – agriculture 30% (2011) 12.9% (2011) 76.9% (2002) 51.5% (2011) a Proportion of GDP – industry 21% (2011) 47.8% (2011) 5.4% (2002) 22% (2011) a Proportion of GDP – services 49% (2011) 39.3% (2011) 17.7% (2002) 26.5% (2011) a Proportion of labor force – agriculture 68% (2007) 76% (2006) 70% (2000) not available a Proportion of labor force – industry not available 8% (2000) not available a 24% (2006) Proportion of labor force – services not available 22% (2000) not available Electricity from fossil fuels, 2009 a 50.6% 68.7% 100% 92.3% Electricity from hydropower, 2009 a 49.4% 31.3% 0% 7.7% b CO 2 emissions (kt), 2008 7015 1393 608 1334 Urban access – improved sanitation, 2010 b 36% 32% 29% 23% Rural access – improved sanitation, 2010 b 11% 11% 7% 6% Urban access – improved water, 2010 b 91% 90% 88% 87% Rural access – improved water, 2010 b 68% 65% 60% 35% Total railways, km a 660 1,185 not available 429 Total roads, km a 80,000 44,348 10,600 11,300 Paved roads, km a 6,500 4,342 657 904 Sources: a CIA World Factbook ; b World Bank

Agriculture Populations in the STEWARD countries are heavily dependent on agriculture and related activities, which employ approximately two-thirds of the population and account for 13-77% of GDP by country (Table 1). Women play a major role in agricultural production, processing and marketing. The rural communities within the landscape surrounding both PZs rely heavily upon natural resources and agricultural activities for both subsistence and income purposes. Major livelihood activities include agriculture with rice, groundnuts, maize, vegetables, and tree crops; hunting and fishing; timber exploitation and non-timber forest product (NTFP) gathering. Food security is a persistent issue, and chronic undernutrition and food availability are core challenges.

3 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones The agricultural sector operates at three scales in the STEWARD countries: • Industrial-scale crops, produced primarily for export: rubber, palm oil, coffee, cocoa, coconuts, bananas; • Small-scale crops intended for domestic markets: rice, cassava, bananas, cotton, sugar, millet, sorghum, groundnuts, maize, goats, sheep, pigs, cattle, poultry; and, • Subsistence farming. The agricultural sector, at all scales, is a primary driver of deforestation. Forested lands are being converted to both industrial and subsistence agriculture as the population grows and areas of cultivation shift. For instance, the conversion of native forests into plantation monocultures of economically important tree crops such as rubber and oil palm has greatly impacted primary forests. Tropical forest soils are not highly fertile, however, and are generally unsuitable for continuous cultivation without additional inputs. In addition, the increase in uncontrolled bushfires from slash-and-burn agricultural practices and limited fire management capacity is exacerbating deforestation.

Agricultural commodities are highly sensitive to fluctuations in international prices and climatic conditions. Almost all of the agricultural activities rely on direct rainfall, rather than irrigation.

Mining Economically significant concentrations of minerals—including gold, diamonds, bauxite, iron ore, rutile, platinum, palladium, nickel, manganese, barite, cobalt, chromite, copper, and uranium—are located throughout the STEWARD countries. The STEWARD countries are planning for industrial and artisanal mining activities to grow rapidly and propel economic growth, thereby contributing significantly to employment, income generation and infrastructure development. Estimates from 2011 indicate that the industrial sector, including mining, accounts for 5-48% of GDP by country (Table 1).

While extractive industries are a source of economic growth, excessive and negligent exploitation can cause long-term detrimental effects to the environment. These operations primarily entail surface mining conducted at both large, industrial scales, and smaller, artisanal scales. Industrial mining operations have significant footprints, but are preceded by environmental assessment and supported by environmental impact mitigation plans, though these assessments may not be comprehensive and mitigation plans are not always implemented. Artisanal mining operations are typically dug by hand with basic tools, but can stretch for kilometers. The cumulative effect of hundreds of thousands of artisanal sites—without any reclamation—can significantly alter landscapes and ecosystem function.

There is a high degree of geographic overlap between mineral deposits and exploration permits and the protected area and forest reserve network in the STEWARD countries (USAID 2008b). If exploitation occurs within these areas as expected, there is a very high potential to significantly affect biodiversity and forest cover. Forest destruction will be locally extensive and permanent. Other potential environmental impacts include: siltation of dams and rivers, ground and surface water pollution, and habitat fragmentation.

Within PZ 1, artisanal gold mining is an increasing threat in Outamba-Kilimi National Park in Sierra Leone. In PZ 2, past industrial mining of iron ore has had an enormous environmental impact on the Nimba Highlands landscape. Currently, SMFG has a mining concession and enclave on lands adjacent to the Mount Nimba Biosphere Reserve, and is in the process of completing Environmental and Social

4 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Impact Assessments; ArcelorMittal has a mining concession that overlaps with West Nimba National Forest and Gba Community Forest.

Manufacturing Manufacturing consists mainly of the processing of raw materials from agriculture, timber, and mining and of light manufacturing for the domestic market, and adds to estimates of industry contributions to GDP of 5-48% of GDP by country (Table 1).

Energy Energy demands in the STEWARD countries are relatively low in a global context, as reflected by annual carbon dioxide emissions, ranging 608-7017 kt by country, in 2008. The majority of electricity in the STEWARD countries, 50-100% by country, is generated from fossil fuels. Hydropower-generated electricity ranges 0-49% by country, and could be significantly expanded. Alternative energy and nuclear power generation are absent or negligible, and comprehensive assessments of their potential for energy generation are lacking. Côte d’Ivoire is home to substantial offshore crude oil and natural gas reserves, and currently exports crude oil, refined petroleum, and natural gas. Two gas-fired electricity plants have turned the country into a regional exporter of electricity. Offshore oil deposits have also been discovered in Sierra Leone, but these reserves have not been developed.

The energy infrastructure in the STEWARD countries has been severely damaged by civil conflicts over the last 20 years. Estimates of access to electricity ranged 2-30% by country (Table 1); access is concentrated in urban areas, though service is intermittent. Firewood and charcoal remain the predominant fuels for cooking and heating, which exacerbates high deforestation rates. Anticipated growth in energy demand, from the mining industries and the general populace, will necessitate careful planning of infrastructure and diverse energy sources, including water management for hydropower.

Infrastructure Basic infrastructure in the STEWARD countries is largely lacking, and the existing infrastructure is in bad condition after many years of civil conflict. The railway system in each country is relatively small, as is the road system, and particularly the paved road system (Table 1).

Waste management in the STEWARD countries is also incredibly poor, and represents one of the largest threats to human and environmental health, and has implications for climate change. Waste in landfills is a large source of anthropogenic methane emissions, which are 23 times more potent as a greenhouse gas agent than carbon dioxide. Urban access to improved sanitation facilities is superior to rural access, but still remains at only 23-36% by country (Table 1). Access to clean water remains a challenge: unprotected water sources and poor watershed management practices are largely at fault. In addition, pollution of the soil, groundwater, surface water, and coastal zones from mining, agricultural, and petroleum chemicals is a substantial threat. In towns and urban areas, streams and watercourses become disposal sites for human and solid wastes, putting the populations at greater risk from water- borne diseases such as the cholera, and polluting the environment at large. Access to improved water sources is reported to range 87-91% in urban areas, and 60-68% in rural areas (Table 1). However, statistics for improved sanitation and water sources are overestimates, as described in a recent assessment produced for the STEWARD program (Water and Sanitation for Africa 2012). These overestimates result from several factors. Sanitation and water facilities were greatly impacted by the protracted conflicts in the STEWARD countries, and the recovery of infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, has been slow. In addition, sanitation and water facilities are subject to chronic problems of poor operation and maintenance, frequent breakdowns, poor quality of services, and financial insolvency.

5 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Fisheries West African fisheries, consisting of both marine and inland components, provide livelihoods and an important source of protein. The Guinean Forest borders one of the world's most productive marine areas, the Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem (GCLME), which is home to high marine diversity and fisheries stocks, and critical ecosystems such as mangroves, wetlands, and coastal lagoons. Although none of the PZs are located in coastal areas near marine fisheries, understanding the predicted effects of climate change on marine fisheries is relevant because overfishing in those areas has been linked to an increase in bushmeat consumption (Brashares et al. 2004). Unfortunately, reliable information on the inland and marine fishery is scarce and estimates of vital statistics (e.g., annual catch, effort, aquaculture production) are unreliable. In addition, the management of fisheries through monitoring, control, and surveillance of industrial and artisanal fishing activities is ineffective. Unsustainable techniques are common, including poisons, explosives, and netting with inappropriately small mesh sizes.

Tourism Tourism provides negligible revenue to the economies of the STEWARD countries. Tourism is severely constrained by political instability, limited and degrading infrastructure (including sanitation, transportation, and electricity), services, weather, governance, and access and availability of sites. Within PZ 1, tourism is permitted within Outamba-Kilimi National Park (OKNP), but facilities are limited and travel may be impossible during the rainy season. Access and visitation to the unclassified forests in Guinea is unrestricted. Within PZ 2, tourism is prohibited within Nimba Strict Nature Reserves in Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea, but is permitted within the biosphere reserve in organized groups; access is unrestricted in Liberia.

Table 2. Select social indicators for the STEWARD countries. Côte d’Ivoire Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Total population, 2011 a 20,152,894 10,221,808 4,128,572 5,997,486 Proportion living in urban areas, 2011 a 51% 35% 48% 39% Annual growth rate, 2011 a 2.1% 2.4% 3.3% 2.2% Annual urban growth rate, 2011 a 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 3.2% Refugees from, 2012 b 154,824 13,161 66,780 8,002 Refugees in, 2012 b 24,221 16,609 128,293 8,092 Internally displaced people (IDP), 2012 b 126,668 0 0 0 Average life expectancy, 2011 a 55 54 56 47 Infant mortality/1,000 live births, 2011 c 81.2 78.9 58.2 119.2 Maternal mortality/100,000 live births modeled, 2010 c 400 610 770 890 HIV prevalence (ages 15-49), 2009 c 3.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% c School life expectancy (yrs), primary to tertiary (year) 6 (2000) 9 (2009) 11 (2000) 12 (2007) Adult literacy rate, 2009 a 55% 39% 59% 41% a Proportion below national poverty line (year) 42% (2008) 53% (2007) 63% (2007) 66% (2003) Human development index global rank, 2011 d 170 178 182 180 Sources: a World Bank ; b UNHCR ; c CIA World Factbook ; d UNDP ; N = 187 countries

2.2 SOCIAL CONTEXT The STEWARD countries are among the poorest countries in the world, with low annual per capita incomes and rankings near the bottom of the Human Development Index. Total populations in the STEWARD countries vary considerably—from four million in Liberia to more than 20 million in Côte d’Ivoire —and the urban proportion of the population ranges from 35 percent in Guinea to 51 percent in

6 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Côte d’Ivoire . Both annual population growth rates (2.1-3.3%) and annual urban growth rates (3.2- 4.1%) are high. Rapid urbanization is leading to increasing numbers of urban poor. Standards of health in the STEWARD countries are very poor: infant mortality ranges 58-119 per 1,000 live births, and average life expectancy at birth is 47-56 years. HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 years is 1.3- 3.4%, relatively low compared to countries in eastern and southern Africa. The educational system is weak, and adult literacy rates are low, 39-59% (Table 2).

In addition to widespread poverty and underdevelopment, the STEWARD countries are challenged by fragile political and security conditions. Sierra Leone and Liberia are still recovering from the civil strife that plagued those countries for years. In the 1990s, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) documented over a million refugees fleeing civil wars and persecution in Liberia and Sierra Leone to seek safety in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ghana. This number has increased in recent years with the outbreak of conflict in Côte d'Ivoire. The estimated number of people displaced within Côte d'Ivoire peaked at one million, while those who fled to neighboring countries reached more than 200,000, with the vast majority seeking refuge in Liberia, Ghana and Togo.

Figure 2. Refugee area and IDP zones in STEWARD countries, shown in orange.

Source: UNHCR

Biodiversity is affected by large-scale human migration and political crises. Refugees need shelter, food, and fuels, all of which they gather from their surrounding natural environment. Uninhabited lands in forest parks and reserves are often used as resettlement lands. Refugee camps tend to be sites of high population density that consequently intensifies the impact on the natural resource base and imposes human health challenges. For example, one important area for refugees and internally displaced people (IDP) is located along the eastern border of Liberia (Figure 2), which includes PZ2 (Mount Nimba in Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire and Nimba Nature Reserve in Liberia, as well as two other important protected areas in the STEWARD countries (Taï National Park in Côte d’Ivoire and Grebo National Forest in Liberia) .

2.3 ECOLOGICAL CONTEXT The Guinean Forest is a belt of tropical rainforest spanning the coast of West Africa from Guinea to Cameroon (Figure 3). There are three distinct vegetation zones within the Guinean Forest: moist coastal forests; freshwater swamp forests; and semi-deciduous inland forests. The rainforest belt is comprised

7 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones of two distinct sub-regions: the Upper Guinean block to the west, which extends from Guinea to Togo, and the Nigeria-Cameroon block to the east. The forest blocks are separated biogeographically by the Dahomey Gap, mixture of savanna and dry forest in E. Ghana, Togo and Benin.

The Guinean Forest region is a high global priority for biodiversity conservation. These tropical forests support a large assemblage of terrestrial and aquatic organisms, and the entire Guinean Forest is considered a hotspot for biodiversity based on species richness, species endemism, and degree of threat. The Guinean Forests supports more than a quarter of all mammals found in Africa, and are vital to primate conservation.

The STEWARD project focuses on countries within the Upper Guinean forest block: Guinea, Figure 3. Guinean Forests of West Africa Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana. The Upper Guinean forest is further divided into two ecoregions: Western and Eastern Guinean Lowland forests. The two ecoregions are separated by the Sassandra River in Côte d’Ivoire, an important biogeographical boundary for many vertebrates, including primates, ungulates, amphibians, and reptiles. Presently, the Upper Guinean forest is a highly Source: Conservation International fragmented system: only 10 percent of the original closed canopy forest remains today (CEPF 2000; USAID 2008b).

Aquatic resources are also vitally important to West Africa. The GCLME is rich in marine diversity and fisheries stocks; critical ecosystems such as mangroves, wetlands, and coastal lagoons; and, economically important petroleum resources. Fisheries provide essential protein resources, and rivers supply freshwater and hydropower electricity. The STEWARD countries possess some of the richest water resources in Africa, and Guinea is home to the headwaters of West Africa’s major rivers. Guinea's mountains are the source for the Niger, the Gambia, the Milo, the Mano, and Senegal Rivers, as well as the numerous rivers flowing to the sea on the west side of the range in Sierra Leone and Côte d'Ivoire.

The climate of West Africa is subject to considerable variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. This climate variability is a function of several major, interrelated processes. These processes include the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the West African monsoon (which influences West African rainfall patterns), as well as interactions with the global El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which leads to drier conditions in the Sahel during its El Niño phase and wetter and cooler conditions in its La Niña phase (Conway 2009). The ITCZ is a region of calm winds separating the northeasterly and southeasterly trade winds, though the precise location of the ITCZ oscillates on an annual basis. In Africa, the northern extent of the ITCZ is just south of the Sahel at about 10-15° N; during the winter, the West African monsoon limits the southern progression of the ITCZ. The West African monsoon is a wind pattern driven by differential heating of land and sea. The wind pattern shifts from predominantly southwesterly during the summer to northeasterly during the winter. During summer the southwesterly monsoon flow drives the ITCZ further north over West Africa, bringing rainfall to the Guinea Coast region. When the monsoon flow reverses during the winter, the northeasterly flow, referred to as the harmattan wind, is characterized as extremely dry and dust laden.

8 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Figure 4. Average annual rainfall in West Africa

Source: Encyclopædia Britannica

The STEWARD countries include tropical climates along the coast, and semiarid climates in the far north. Seasonal weather patterns include a warm-dry period from December through March, a hot-dry period from March through May, and a hot-wet season from June through November. The northeasterly harmattan winds occur during the dry season, and torrential flooding often occurs during the rainy season. Average precipitation values ranged 1351-2526 mm per year, by country (World Bank Data); highest precipitation values were recorded in coastal areas, with more arid lands in the northern part of each country (Figure 4).

Figure 5. STEWARD PZ 1 on the left; STEWARD PZ 2 on the right

Sources: JGI 2007 Conservation International

PZ 1: Outamba-Kilimi National Park (Sierra Leone) and Madina Oula, Soya and Ouré Kaba sub- prefectures (Guinea)

Outamba-Kilimi National Park (OKNP) is situated in the north of Sierra Leone, close to the border with the Republic of Guinea (Figure 5). The park is split into two areas, Outamba (74,100 ha) and Kilimi

9 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones (36,800 ha), between which lies an unprotected strip of land 25 km long by 40 km wide. The predominant vegetation is a mosaic of grassland, closed woodland and gallery forest. Outamba supports mainly tall-grass savanna and moist woodland with small areas of closed-canopy forest, while more open savanna woodland with shorter grasses occurs in Kilimi, together with seasonal swamps. Small areas of raphia palm swamp-forest and riverine grassland are found in both. The terrain is mostly flat with few hills. A number of large rivers flow south-west through the park: the Mongo and Little Scarcies across Outamba and the Great Scarcies through Kilimi. Parts of the park may be inaccessible at the height of the wet season (July–August) due to flooding of the Little Scarcies River.

OKNP is home to diverse species. A total of 256 bird species have been recorded from the park, including three species of global conservation concern, one of which, the pallid harrier Circus macrourus , is only a rare migrant through the area. The other two, the yellow-casqued wattled hornbill Ceratogymna elata and Turati’s boubou Laniarius turatii , are among 25 species of the Guinea–Congo Forests biome that have been recorded. Notable among the species of the Sudan–Guinea Savanna biome is the emerald starling Coccycolius iris . Seasonally, the park supports many waterbirds, often including thousands of cattle egret Bubulcus ibis (BirdLife International 2012). For mammals, the site is an important refuge for the following primates: West African chimpanzee Pan troglodytes verus , western red colobus monkey Procolobus badius , king colobus monkey Colobus polykomos and sooty mangabey Cercocebus atys . Other mammals include African forest elephant Loxodonta africana cyclotis , pygmy hippopotamus Hexaprotodon liberiensis , water chevrotain Hyemoschus aquaticus and Maxwell’s duiker Cephalophus maxwelli .

PZ 1 includes a number of unclassified areas in Sierra Leone near OKNP, as well as unclassified areas in Guinea, just across the border from OKNP (Figure 5; Table 3). Several of these Community Forests are currently in the process of being established.

PZ 1 Threats Rural communities within the landscape surrounding PZ 1 are heavily dependent on the surrounding landscape for both subsistence and income. Despite the importance of environmental goods and services to communities within PZ 1, the recent conflicts in both Sierra Leone and neighboring Liberia have exacerbated forest loss and degradation, and increased habitat fragmentation. Currently, forest loss is primarily the result of unsustainable mining practices and slash-and-burn agriculture with increasingly short fallow periods. These activities—combined with logging, grazing, and the overexploitations of NTFPs such as wildlife—are severely degrading the landscape, and threatening the biodiversity. Steady population growth compounds these threats.

Communities located within the Kilimi portion of OKNP were resettled when it was established in 1995. However, the civil war disrupted plans to extend the program to the communities in the Outamba section and the funding has since dried up. The communities have since expanded and are reported to be farming and mining extensively within the park. The high price of gold has triggered a gold rush by artisanal miners in OKNP, where there are reports of up to 28 communities springing up within the park in recent years (Brown and Crawford 2012). Staffing levels in the Outamba section of OKNP are insufficient to protect park borders, and more work is needed with the surrounding communities to reduce encroachment and resource degradation. There is heavy hunting pressure, especially in Outamba, of elephants, chimpanzees and monkeys. Local fishing methods, which employ small-mesh- size nets and poisonous herbs, may pollute or degrade the aquatic systems and render the water unfit for consumption. Honey-gathering takes place destructively, by cutting down and burning trees. Bush fires periodically result from this and from subsistence farming. Emergency funding in the 1990s

10 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones alleviated some of the logistical problems faced by the park’s management and enhanced surveillance and law enforcement, but the lingering effects of the long-running civil war have slowed or halted progress.

Table 3. Community Forests within PZ 1 Country Community Forest Size (ha) Community of Registration Date of Registration Guinea Sekou soria 117 Sekusoria 2010 Kansema 427 Kansema 2010 Kolba 24 Kolba 2010 Kagbenlay* Kagbenlay 2011 Tinka 117 Madina Oula 2011 Ben ben 569 Benben 2010 Bande Kanty 810 Bandekanty 2010 Sierra Leone Ferekuray 340 Sanya 2010 Yana* Sumata 2011 Sumata 340 Sumata 2010 Fundokorie* Fundokorie 2011 Kortor 107 Kortor 2011 Fintonia 527 Fintonia 2011 Komoya* Komoya 2011 Samaya* Samaya 2011 Sanya* *Community forests in the process of being established.

PZ 2: Nimba Strict Nature Reserve (Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire) and Nimba Nature Reserve (Liberia)

The Nimba Highlands are a transboundary mountain range on the border between Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia, stretching over 40 km and rising to 1,752 m in altitude (Figure 5). Slopes rise abruptly above the surrounding lowland forest and savanna and are covered by dense cloud forest beneath grassy mountain tops. The Nimba Mountains are a vast water catchment, supplying water to an estimated 5 million people across the Mano River Union countries. The economic well-being of people living in this region depends on how these watersheds are managed, which is both an opportunity for collaboration and a potential source of regional conflict. The Cavally and Ya Rivers, as well as tributaries of the Sassandra and Cess Rivers, originate on Mount Nimba. Rivers descending the steep slopes run swiftly, and often produce torrential floods during the rainy season. The Nimba Highlands have a sub-equatorial montane climate subject to several influences, including the southwesterly monsoon, dry northeasterly harmattan winds, and gradients related to rain-shadowing, aspect, and altitude.

The Nimba Mountains in Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire were declared a Strict Nature Reserve in 1944, and the reserve extends over a total of area of 17,540 ha, with 12,540 ha in Guinea and 5,000 ha in Côte d’Ivoire; this area was designated as a Biosphere Reserve in 1980 and a World Heritage Site in 1981. In Liberia, the Nimba Highlands are managed in the East Nimba Nature Reserve (13,560 ha), and the West Nimba National Forest (10,482 ha), which are dominated by a semi-montane and deciduous forests.

11 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones The interlacing forests and grasslands of the Nimba Highlands provide a variety of habitats with unusually rich flora and fauna, including a significant population of West African chimpanzees. The wide range of habitats and numerous niches provides shelter to more than 300 vertebrate species, and more than 2,500 invertebrate species with a high endemism level. Notable endemic species include the viviparous toad of Mount Nimba ( Nimbaphrynoides occidentalis ), which only lives in high altitude habitats; and, the micropotamogale of Mount Nimba (Micropotamogale lamottei ), a small semi-aquatic insectivore in danger of extinction. More than 2,000 species of vascular plants, including several endemic or quasi-endemic plants, have been recorded.

There are 10 villages in the immediate vicinity of the Nimba Mountains with several thousand inhabitants, mainly growing crops. The bush meat trade is extensive in the Nimba Highlands. As a result, there has been considerable degradation of the lower, northern parts of the Strict Nature Reserve, around the edge of which runs the road linking Nzérékoré with Danane in Côte d’Ivoire. The recent influx of large numbers of refugees has exacerbated this problem.

PZ 2 Threats The main threat to the Nimba Highlands is from mining; not only of those deposits on the Guinean side which have yet be exploited, but also from the recommencement of massive iron-ore mining operations in the southern part of the mountains in Liberia. Mining concessions across the Nimba Mountain range have recently been granted to major multinational extractive companies, including ArcelorMittal and SMFG. In 1992 Mount Nimba Strict Nature Reserve was added to the list of World Heritage Sites in Danger due to threats from mining concessions and the arrival of large numbers of refugees, and Mount Nimba has remained on the Danger List through the 2012 evaluation. In 1995, the government of Guinea government established the Environmental Management Authority for Mounts Nimba and Simandou (CEGENS), to oversee environmental planning and management of the mineral-rich Nimba Mountains and Simandou in Guinea.

Mining activities are responsible for high levels of direct and indirect environmental impact including the influx of migratory workers and their dependents that will increase pressure on forest products and ecosystem services already strained by population pressures. Past uncontrolled exploitation of iron ore deposits on the Liberian side of Mount Nimba (1963-1992) has had an extremely high environmental impact. Approximately 300 million tons of mine waste were stockpiled without any precautions. The resulting acidification of rainwater and siltation of watercourses causes death of aquatic life and affects wildlife drinking the water, and also causes health problems for communities downstream.

In addition to mining, pressures from deforestation, agricultural encroachment, poaching, fires, livestock grazing, and inadequate management threaten Mount Nimba’s biodiversity. The predominant crop here is upland, rain-fed rice. Savanna patches are mostly used for livestock production, hunting, fuel wood collection, and NFTP and wildlife harvesting. The shortages in land have led to dramatically reduced fallow times across the region. Today, native forests outside the Biosphere’s reserve core areas have nearly disappeared, with the exceptions of a few isolated sacred groves and gallery forests along waterways.

2.4 NON -CLIMATE STRESSES Non-climate stresses are important barriers or constraints to the attainment of development goals and the success of development programs and projects. They also are important factors that can exacerbate the impact of climate change and reduce the effectiveness of actions to address climate impacts and

12 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones vulnerability. The ecosystems and species the PZs in the STEWARD program are subject to a variety of direct and indirect threats (USAID 2007, 2008a, 2008b, 2012a, 2012b):

Direct Threats • Agriculture (Sections 2.1, 2.3) • Mining (Sections 2.1, 2.3) • Deforestation resulting from logging, fuel wood gathering, and charcoal production • Overhunting for subsistence and bushmeat trade • Overfishing, which has been linked to an increase in bushmeat consumption (Brashares 2004; Sections 2.1, 2.3) • Invasive species • Pollution (Sections 2.1, 2.3)

Indirect Threats • Population growth • Poverty • Civil conflict and political instability • Migration and urbanization • Governance and policy issues o Inadequate and uneven laws, regulations, and policies o Gap between policy and action o Limited institutional capacity o Lack of transboundary planning and management o Unprotected PZ borders o Lack of scientific data

3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY Climate variability and change are expected to affect the achievement of development objectives as a result of their collective impact on valued assets, inputs, people, and their livelihoods, and to exacerbate development challenges where non-climate stresses are already a factor.

3.1 IMPACTS OF CONCERN West Africa has periodically experienced major disturbances in climatic conditions since the end of the last glaciation 12,000 years ago, including multi-decadal periods of drought. The most recent extended drought began during the second half of the 20th century when a substantial reduction in rainfall occurred in western Africa (Boko et al . 2007; Conway 2009) and aridification led to the great droughts of the 1970s and 1980s (SWAC 2009). Better rainfall conditions have been observed since the mid-1990s, particularly in the continental Sahel region (SWAC 2009). Greater inter-annual rainfall variability and a shortening of the rainy season has occurred, as well as an increase in temperatures (Niassé 2007).

Whether these changes are part of a normal climatic cycle or an indicator of climate change is uncertain (Conway 2009), because of the complex interrelationships of the ITCZ, the West African monsoon, and the ENSO. Furthermore, gaps in regional climate observations (due to an underdeveloped meteorological system in Africa), limited regional modeling of West Africa’s climate, and a limited capacity to provide accurate, high resolution projections for the region compound the challenge of climate forecasting (Boko et al. 2007; ECOWAS/SWAC/OECD 2008; SWAC 2009).

13 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones

Despite these limitations on the development of climate change projections for Africa, it is generally accepted that the continent will very likely warm at a rate greater than the global annual mean and that this warming will be greater in the continent’s drier subtropical regions than in its moister tropical regions (Christiansen et al . 2007). It is also generally accepted that, although mean annual precipitation changes are uncertain, Africa will on average become drier (Conway 2009). Yet Africa is also expected to experience an increase in the intensity of high-rainfall events. The number of extremely wet seasons in West Africa is also expected to increase to about one in five seasons, compared to a rate of one in 20 seasons in the late 20th century (Christiansen et al . 2007). Thus, although considerable uncertainty remains regarding future precipitation patterns in West Africa (SWAC 2009), rising temperatures alone have the potential to increase rates of evapotranspiration, influence crop productivity and lead to heat stress in human and livestock populations. As such, there is a need to increase capacity to cope with greater climate variability and unpredictability in the future.

Temperature Climate change projections indicate that Africa as a whole will likely warm during this century, with a median temperature increase of 3-4°C for the period 2080-2099 (in comparison to the period 1980- 1999) under a medium-high emissions scenario using General Circulation Models (GCMs). This rate of warming could be roughly 1.5 times the global mean response (Christensen et al . 2007). Even under optimistic emissions stabilization and reforestation scenarios and using Regional Climate Models that typically forecast lower temperature increases, West Africa could see a significant rise in temperature; warming of more than 2°C this century is projected for the Sahel (Boko et al . 2007; Christensen et al. 2007). It has already been demonstrated that temperature changes in West Africa, and particularly in the Sahel, have occurred faster than the global average (Conway 2009; ECOWAS/SWAC/OECD 2008). Temperatures have risen 0.2- 0.8°C since the end of the 1970s, with average minimum temperatures rising the most—particularly in the Sudanese Zone, followed by the Sahel-Saharan Zone and Sahel Zone (ECOWAS/SWAC/OECD 2008).

Some national level projections were available for the STEWARD countries, though methods were not evaluated. In Côte d’Ivoire, climate change is projected to result in an increase in temperature for 2030 and 2100; already, observations show a temperature increase between 1990 and 2000 in Côte d’Ivoire (MEEF 2010). Climate projections in Guinea are uncertain but suggest that Middle and Upper Guinea will see significant warming by 2100 (varying from an increase of 0.3-4.8°C), and that temperatures will also rise but to a lesser extent in the Lower Guinea and Forest Guinea regions (0.2°-3.9°C) (MAEEEF 2007). For Liberia, a recent analysis projected a warming of 1-2°C by 2050, with greatest temperatures in the interior (Stanturf et al. 2012). According to climate projections, in comparison to the period of 1961 to 1990, Sierra Leone is expected to experience a rise in average temperatures by 2100 (1.8-2.5°C) (MTA 2008).

There is almost no information available at the scale of the PZs. However, a recent climate assessment for Liberia used ensemble projections from 16 GCMs of future climate, across three emission scenarios, for several representative areas, including parts of PZ 2, Nimba (Stanturf et al. 2012). Nimba is projected to warm 1.9°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2080 during the dry season (1.7°C by 2050 and 2.6 °C by 2080 during the wet season). Regardless of emissions scenario, the GCMs were consistent in predicting warmer conditions throughout Liberia.

14 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Precipitation In West Africa, rainfall has declined 20-40% (average of 1968-1990, as compared with 1931-1960), although the decline in the tropical rainforest zone was only 4% (Malhi and Wright 2004). Looking forward, the impact of climate change on regional precipitation patterns is unclear; however, there is broad expectation that the African continent will become drier (Conway 2009) and of the potential for a greater number of extremely dry and wet years in the Sahel region throughout this century, including more severe droughts (Boko et al. 2007; Niassé 2007; SWAC 2009).

Neither the Third nor Fourth Assessment Reports of the IPCC reached a consensus regarding the direction or magnitude of predicted changes in precipitation over West Africa during this century (Hulme et al. 2001; Christensen et al. 2007). National-scale projections of precipitation were highly variable, with decreases projected for Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea, and increases projected for Liberia and Sierra Leone (MAEEEF 2007; MTA 2008; Stanturf et al. 2012; MEEF 2010). Coarse-resolution GCMs have difficulty describing the West African monsoon, which involves highly variable mechanisms operating across many spatial and temporal scales. This modeling challenge is reflected in the recent Liberian assessment: ensemble averages of future precipitation estimated for the Nimba region of Liberia (part of PZ 2) were inconsistent. For instance, in Nimba, forecast changes in precipitation ranged from 40% decreases to 24% increases in wet season rainfall, while overall ensemble prediction across emission scenarios projected negligible change in wet season (Stanturf et al. 2012).

Extreme Events Limited information is available for projections of extreme weather events in Africa, including West Africa (Christensen et al . 2007). A study that used four GCMs (Huntingford et al. 2005), however, suggests that the number of extremely dry and wet years in the Sahel region will increase throughout this century. Temperature increases and possible land-use changes and degradation could produce a positive feedback mechanism, aggravating the reduction of soil moisture content and leading to more severe droughts (Boko et al. 2007).

Sea Level Rise Although none of the PZs in the STEWARD program are located in coastal areas, sea level rise may affect migration patterns over the long-term and result in higher population pressures for inland sites. For coastal areas, sea-level rise and its associated implications for flooding of low-lying areas, higher storm surges and intrusion of saltwater into freshwater sources is also a concern—particularly given that 40 per cent of West Africans live in coastal urban areas (Boko et al. 2007). Along the coast of West Africa, sea level is projected by climate models to rise 0.13-0.56 meters by the 2090s, relative to 1980–1999 sea levels (Meehl et al. 2007; McSweeney et al. 2008).

3.2 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY Vulnerability to climate change is a function of exposure to climate change and weather hazards, sensitivity to them, and adaptive capacity of society and the economy.

Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity)

Exposure refers to whether and to what extent the hazards have an impact on communities, ecosystems, and other assets. Measures of exposure can include the number of people or categories of assets in hazard zones. Sensitivity indicates whether and to what degree the characteristics of a community or asset make it susceptible to the harmful effects of climate change hazards.

15 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Adaptive capacity is the ability of households and communities to anticipate and/or respond to climatic changes in order to reduce vulnerability by, for instance, planting drought- and flood-resistant varieties of rice. Elements of adaptive capacity include more general considerations that are important for development such as human development, poverty levels, and social capital and networks, as well as climate-specific issues such as the existence and effectiveness of early warning systems for disasters and extreme events (e.g., floods, droughts, disease outbreaks, and crop/forest pests and diseases). Adaptive capacity can reduce the potential impact of climate change hazards in two ways, either by improving preparedness and ability to respond to climate change independent of exposure to climate change risks, or by reducing exposure. While improving technical capacity is an example of the former, implementing and enforcing zoning rules that restrict development in flood- and disaster-prone areas illustrates the latter.

The risks posed by climate change for West Africa’s future development are substantial. The economies of many West African countries rely on climate-sensitive activities such as rain-fed agriculture, livestock rearing, fisheries and forestry. Changes in coastal environments and freshwater resources due to climate change, combined with poor resource management, could have negative impacts for a number of sectors, including human health. Projected sea level rise will have significant economic and social impacts for coastal populations, and might result in migration toward resource-rich, inland sites such as the PZs.

West Africa’s vulnerability is exacerbated by the low capacity of its social and ecological systems to cope with climatic extremes. In West Africa, major droughts and floods are frequently followed by ecological decline, widespread food scarcity, mass migrations, and loss of human life. The high sensitivity of the STEWARD countries to climate change is exacerbated by low adaptive capacity related to widespread poverty, an immediate daily dependence on natural resources and biodiversity, a heavy disease burden, and numerous civil conflicts. Without sufficient adaptation activities, the projected impacts of climate change could result in a higher occurrence and severity of human and environmental disasters in West Africa in general and in the STEWARD areas in particular.

3.3 AT-RISK SECTORS Agriculture and Food Security In the landscapes surrounding the PZs, agriculture remains predominantly rain-fed and dominated by small farmers with poor access to agricultural technologies, information, and financial services. Accordingly, the agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to weather variability, soil fertility degradation, and infestations of pests and diseases. The situation is expected to worsen under the influence of global climate change (Figure 6). Specifically, climate change could impact agricultural production through lower average precipitation and higher average temperatures, as well as altered patterns of the onset and duration of the rainy season. For pastoralists, altered temperature and precipitation regimes and extreme event patterns could lead to the outbreak of climate-related animal diseases (Garba 2010). Pastoralists may also need to change their migratory patterns, as they have done in the past in response to climatic extremes (SWAC 2009). Lower productivity in the agricultural and pastoral sectors will reduce food security and increase pressure on natural resources, such as hunting for bushmeat.

Forests and Terrestrial Biodiversity Although the vulnerability of tropical rain forests to higher temperatures is hotly debated, most evidence indicates that tropical rain forest plant species are moisture-limited, which is also influenced by temperature (Gonzalez 2001; Wright et al. 2009; Corlett 2011). Warmer temperatures, droughts, and

16 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones declines in precipitation can lead to loss of vegetation and deterioration of land cover. The flora and fauna of the STEWARD region include high proportions of endemic species; changing patterns in temperature and precipitation will result in new environmental conditions that may not provide for successful reproduction and survival. For instance, increased frequency of drought events can dry out water sources that are vital to the survival of plant and animal species. Increases in intense rainfall events can cause floods, which erode soil, watersheds, and ecosystems. Habitat loss and degradation resulting from unsustainable land use practices will also reduce the abundance and distribution of essential habitats for plants and animals. For example, the indirect effects on forests from increased mining activity and agricultural clearing may exacerbate the impacts of warmer temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns. Restoration of some intensively mined sites to their original forested condition will not be feasible. In addition, wildfire is likely to become more important in all forested areas during dry periods as wildfire risk from climate change is projected to increase (Liu et al. 2010).

Figure 6. Projected changes in agricultural productivity in 2080 due to climate change

Source: Cline 2007

Fisheries Inland fisheries serve as an important source of animal protein and income in the STEWARD countries. Because so little is known about STEWARD fisheries (e.g., rates of exploitation, diversity and status of fish species, number of fishers), climate change impacts are impossible to predict beyond broad generalizations. Precipitation and evapotranspiration changes, including an increase in extreme events (e.g., exacerbated floods, extreme drought), could affect inland waters causing changes in magnitude and timing of high and low river flows. These kinds of hydrological variability could adversely affect fish habitats, reproduction, growth, recruitment, and mortality.

Although none of the PZs are located in coastal areas near marine fisheries, understanding the predicted effects of climate change on marine fisheries is relevant because overfishing in those areas has been linked to an increase in bushmeat consumption (Brashares et al. 2004). Climate change interaction with marine fisheries generally suggests that sea temperature increases may result in a shift in distribution

17 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones (by depth or geographic location) or loss of fish and shellfish species, changes in ocean currents affecting primary and secondary productivity especially in fisheries dependent on upwelling zones, coral bleaching affecting reef fisheries, and disruption to fish reproductive patterns (timing, recruitment) and migratory routes (Mensah and Koranteng 1988; Wiafe et al. 2008).

Mining and Industry Open-pit, or mountain-top removal, mining directly contributes to climate change, by releasing greenhouse gas emissions associated with the terrestrial disturbance operations (Fox and Campbell 2010). Both mining and other manufacturing and industrial processes are at risk not only of resource depletion, but also reduced access to markets if infrastructure fails. They also suffer from poor public image, or even potential conflicts, if their activities are seen to pollute or divert resources in neighboring communities.

Mining operations have significant impacts on the livelihoods of local residents, including water and air pollution, erosion, and land degradation. Mineral mines use a lot of water for extraction and processing, and so the greatest risk of climate change to this important economic sector is access to water, and the regulations placed on the industry to control pollution. Many mining activities are not regulated or managed well and contribute to downstream pollution by heavy metals, which further exacerbate the challenge of meeting water quality requirements. Even if the challenge of achieving improved water quality by requiring mining industries to recycle and clean water during processing were achieved for the future, water quality and supply has already been compromised by the legacy of unmanaged mining wastes which leach into rivers and tributaries.

Infrastructure and Energy Impacts from climate change on infrastructure assets will come from a number of stressors. The flooding that often accompanies more extreme precipitation events will weaken the already inadequate transportation infrastructure, which will have a negative impact on all of the key economic sectors: manufacturing, agriculture, mining, fisheries, and energy. Sea level rise and coastal erosion can limit port access and depth, thereby affecting trade. The electric infrastructure is also at risk; large hydropower capacity is threatened by the effect of climate change on rainfall patterns, particularly the volume and seasonal distribution of rainfall. A host of non-climate stressors place increasing demands on basic infrastructure (e.g., water, sanitation, transportation, housing, food, and energy): high population growth rates, increasing urbanization, and high population densities of refugees and IDPs. Finally, low institutional capacity in the STEWARD countries to identify and analyze climate-related risk and a lack of basic meteorological data and trends series means that risks to infrastructure cannot be adequately assessed, planned for, or managed.

Freshwater Resources Surface and groundwater sources are essential to communities, ecosystems, and various economic sectors. Declines in rainfall, increases in temperature, more frequent droughts, and increased human demands all contribute to the decline in West African surface and groundwater availability and accessibility. Decreases in surface water also may reduce water levels in dams, which serve as sources for irrigation, water supply, and hydropower generation. Future water availability will be influenced by a number of factors including population growth, migration and agricultural development. Although the STEWARD countries are endowed with ample water resources, including rivers and river basins, access to clean water remains a challenge. Many communities in the region have a low capacity to cope with the additional water stress that may arise due to climate change. Most major water systems are

18 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones transboundary, and the issues of allocation, including environmental flows, have the potential to become sources of conflict.

Human Health The health systems of the STEWARD countries are incredibly weak and could face additional pressures due to changes in the distribution of infectious diseases resulting from extreme rainfall and temperature events such as droughts, heat waves, and storms. Meningitis, malaria, and acute respiratory infections are especially sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. Increased heavy rainfall and flooding events can accelerate breeding rates and the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Furthermore, flooding may lead to the contamination of water sources, spreading pathogens and increasing the outbreak of water-borne diseases such as cholera. Both excessive and extremely low rainfall, as well as extreme temperature events, can increase the incidence of diarrhea and malnutrition, especially among children. To the extent that climate change reduces agriculture yields, it can also indirectly contribute to poor health from malnutrition.

Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems Although none of the PZs are located in coastal areas, significant changes to these ecosystems could result in migration and resettlement at inland sites, including the PZs. Rising sea levels could damage coastal infrastructure, lead to flooding and the intrusion of saltwater into low-lying areas (including mangroves and wetlands), along with the loss of coastal agriculture due to soil salinization and inundation (Boko et al. 2007). Reduction in area of the mangrove wetlands could result in a loss of buffering capacity from violent storm surges; increased coastal erosion; exacerbated terrestrial flooding; reduced supplies of timber, fuel wood, and medicinals; and, altered groundwater recharge and freshwater supplies.

Conflict Climate change is often considered an overarching environmental security threat that exacerbates other natural resource challenges (e.g., drought, desertification, land degradation, reduced water supplies, deforestation, and fisheries depletion). Climate change may heighten existing tensions and facilitate new conflicts by redistributing food and water supplies, disease prevalence, coastal boundaries and population movements (e.g., “climate refugees”). In turn, livelihoods may be undermined, critical resources may become scarcer, and an overall decline in the quality of life may result. However, climate change is only one of many security, environmental and developmental challenges facing the STEWARD region, such as recent civil conflict, poverty, governance, education, and ethnic and religious fractionalization. Moreover, there is no definitive research on the empirical links between climate change and conflict (CIFOR 2005; Brown and Crawford 2008; Werz and Conley 2012), though clearly climate change will test the adaptive capacity of resource-dependent communities.

Future climate change will complicate many current development challenges, but investments in building adaptive capacity can help to prevent or resolve climate-related conflicts and insecurity. Building adaptive capacity in this context can involve introducing or strengthening measures that protect and diversify livelihoods, ensure access to and availability of key natural resources, build resilient infrastructure, and support conflict resolution institutions. Adaptation to climate change should be integrated within wider plans for development assistance, to help address some of the key natural resource issues that could become contentious as a result of climate change (e.g., food security, transboundary water allocation).

19 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones 4. ADAPTATION PLANNING , PRIORITIES , AND PROGRAMS As vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, reducing vulnerability will require reducing exposure and/or sensitivity, and/or increasing adaptive capacity through adaptation. Climate adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to mitigate potential damage, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as:

…adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment. Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation.

4.1 ADAPTATION PLANNING WITHIN THE STEWARD COUNTRIES AND PRIORITY ZONES Regional Adaptation Planning Among the more prominent intergovernmental initiatives underway in the region is the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) launch in 2010 of the Regional Plan of Action for Reducing Vulnerability in the Face of Climate Change in West Africa.

Specific to the water sector, another initiative has led to the identification of the elements of a strategy to reduce West Africa’s vulnerability to climate impacts on water resources, wetlands and desertification. The West Africa Regional Office of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), in collaboration with Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and the West Africa Water Partnership, worked together to develop a 2004 regional strategy and action plan (Niassé et al. 2004), though implementation has not yet begun. Another development at the regional level has been the establishment of a Regional Charter and Action Plan for Sustainable Mangrove Management under the guidance of the IUCN and Wetlands International Africa in 2010 (Wetlands International 2010). Signatories include Guinea and Sierra Leone. There are no PZs in coastal areas with mangroves.

National Adaptation Planning

Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are all parties to the UNFCCC. The STEWARD countries have presented their anticipated impacts of climate change, key vulnerabilities and priority adaptation actions in two different formats:

• National Communications to the UNFCCC : Côte d’Ivoire , Guinea, Sierra Leone; and, • National Adaptations Programs of Action (NAPAs): Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone.

Efforts to integrate adaptation into various national policies and sectoral plans appear to be limited (De Vit and Parry 2011). However, NAPAs frequently make direct reference to specific national development policies, notably poverty reduction policies (including Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers) and the need for adaptation efforts to be implemented in connection with these overarching policies.

20 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones STEWARD Priority Zone Adaptation Planning As mentioned previously, the STEWARD Program has the following Development Objective: Resilience of biodiverse ecosystems and human communities in target areas maintained and strengthened. The Intermediate Results of this Development Objective will be achieved through activities being implemented in the two PZs. The Development Objective logically depends on the successful achievement of the four intermediate results that are tightly integrated and complementary:

1. Biodiversity: Biodiverse ecosystems conserved in target areas; 2. Climate Change Adaptation: Resilience to projected adverse effects of climate change improved in target areas; 2.1: Community-level knowledge of projected climate changes and adaptation strategies increased 2.2: National-level knowledge of projected climate changes and adaptation strategies increased 3. Climate Change Mitigation: Greenhouse gas emissions reduced in target areas; and 4. Water: Access to adequate supplies of clean water improved in target areas.

With regard to adapting to climate change, the hypothesis underlying the STEWARD Results Framework is that if communities and national authorities have the knowledge and capacity to understand the implications of climate change, and the tools, technologies, and methodologies to minimize climate risks, then resilience to the projected adverse effects of climate change will be improved in PZs – the desired development outcome related to climate change adaptation. National-level capacity and knowledge is hypothesized to be necessary to provide the enabling environment for effective climate change adaptation at the community level.

STEWARD activities and inputs are designed to influence the resilience of two complex, interdependent systems – the Upper Guinean Forest ecosystem, and the human social system of forest-resident, forest- dependent communities. Addressing and reducing the threats to forests from agricultural expansion and fire will help conserve biodiversity, improve system resilience to the negative effects of climate change, help to sequester carbon and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and protect watersheds to ensure more stable flows of clean water.

4.2 ADAPTATION PRIORITIES WITHIN THE STEWARD COUNTRIES National Priority Actions for Adaptation In their National Communications to the UNFCCC and NAPAs (summarized in DeVit and Parry 2011), the STEWARD countries identified their vulnerabilities to climate change and identified adaptation priorities. Common priorities identified through these reports are resource-dependent economic sectors, fresh water resources, human health, and coastal zones (Table 4, Annex B).

21 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Table 4. Summary of National Priority Adaptation Actions by Key Sectors Sector Priority Adaptation Action(s) Agriculture • Diversification and intensification of agricultural production • Diversification of cultivars • Improved pest and disease forecasting and control • Promotion of small-scale irrigation schemes • Timing cultivation with changing rainfall patterns • Improved food alert systems Forestry • Expanded community participation in forest and protected area management • Implementation of community forest management plans • Improvement of fire management and prevention • Reforestation for energy production • Promotion of agroforestry • Forest restoration Fisheries • Modernization of artisanal fishing • Expansion of sustainable aquaculture • Conservation of post-harvest fishery products • Regulation to prevent overexploitation • Development of fishery-related databases • Protection of riparian area • Habitat restoration • Formulation of a national, transboundary fishing policies Livestock/Pastoralism • Improvement of livestock and rangeland management • Introduction of fodder crop species into pastoral areas • Reorganization of livestock breeding • Creation of Livestock Food Banks Freshwater Resources • Construction of infrastructure to collect, supply and store water • Promotion of integrated water resources management • Improvement and stabilization of watershed management • Protection of aquifers and reservoir sites • Dissemination of drip irrigation technologies • Capacity building to understand surface water cycles Human Health • Expansion of capacity building for health workers • Promotion of hygiene and sanitation • Implementation of community health education programs • Improvement of alert systems for extreme weather conditions • Improvement of public sanitation and water supply Coastal Zones • Rehabilitation and construction of infrastructures for protection of coastal zones • Introduction of mangrove oyster farming • Protection of spawning grounds in estuaries • Improved coastal erosion monitoring • Protection and restoration of mangroves • Construction of flooding infrastructure • Improved coastal land use planning Climate Information • Strengthen national/regional information systems to improve agro-meteorological Services services, early warning systems and long term forecasts • Capacity building to anticipate, prevent and manage natural disasters

22 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones 4.3 SUMMARY OF ONGOING ADAPTATION PROGRAMS Regional Adaptation Programs A number of regional adaptation projects and programs are currently underway in West Africa (De Vit and Parry 2011). They include initiatives in the following sectors: agriculture, freshwater, fisheries and coastal zones, and biodiversity/ecosystem conservation. Nearly all of these regional projects support research, capacity building or knowledge communication.

For a fuller picture of the degree to which regional actions are reducing the vulnerability of West Africans to the impacts of climate change, an examination of efforts outside of the adaptation sphere is required. For instance, efforts to improve the management of transboundary waters are occurring through the work of various watershed management authorities; countries are collaborating on efforts to combat desertification (e.g., The Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel, CILSS); and, joint action to improve management of mangrove forest resources is underway. Through these initiatives, specific actions identified by countries to reduce their vulnerability to climate change may be occurring.

National Adaptation Programs A number of adaptation projects and programs are underway that exclusively aim to address adaptation needs in the STEWARD countries (Annex A). Compared to other countries in West Africa, the STEWARD countries have relatively few current adaptation projects (De Vit and Parry 2011). A number of different factors appear to be influencing the presence of adaptation projects in a country, such as competing government priorities, capacity issues, donor interest and a favorable environment for project implementation. The relatively very low number of adaptation projects being implemented in countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia and Sierra Leone may also be attributed to a legacy of political instability and the development of international donor relationships in the context of emergency assistance rather than long-term, climate-sensitive development.

Most national adaptation projects in the STEWARD countries focus on the priority sectors of agriculture and freshwater resources. Most current national projects focus on capacity building (Annex A), whereas most of the proposed actions involve field implementation and community-based adaptation activities (Annex B).

STEWARD Priority Zone Adaptation Programs As mentioned previously (Section 4.1), STEWARD programming is using an integrated approach to conserving biodiversity, increasing climate change adaptation and mitigation, and increasing access to clean water in the PZs. STEWARD activities and inputs are designed to influence the resilience of two complex, interdependent systems – the Upper Guinean Forest ecosystem, and the human social system of forest-resident, forest-dependent communities. Addressing and reducing the threats to forests from agricultural expansion, mineral exploitation, and fire will help conserve biodiversity, improve system resilience to the negative effects of climate change, help to sequester carbon and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and protect watersheds to ensure more stable flows of clean water.

Current PZ activities promote climate change adaptation through a variety of mechanisms, including: educating national-level policy-makers; capacity-building for local institutions; and the promotion of best management practices in natural resources management such as agroforestry, land use planning and fire management. Activities operate at both community and national levels (Annex A).

23 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Several partners are working across both PZs:

PCI-Media Impact is implementing a STEWARD communication program. Using traditional communications tools as well as more innovative, scalable, cost-effective and proven Entertainment-Education and social marketing methodologies, the STEWARD Communications Program will both positively change behaviors and shift social norms with regard to biodiversity conservation; climate change; water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH); and, natural resource management. To achieve these objectives, Media Impact will implement an integrated, multi- pronged communications platform to create an informed and supportive constituency among both government/policy makers and target audiences generally, and within the PZs. The program will build local capacity, create and mobilize transboundary stakeholder communities, and effect positive knowledge, attitude and behavior change among target audiences around climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and WASH within sustainable landscapes. The campaign will create a common social narrative that changes the way people think and act, reducing vulnerability to climate change and enhancing climate-resilient WASH systems and services across the Upper Guinean Forest Ecosystem by increasing the resilience of social and natural systems, and enhancing key stakeholder support.

Thomson Reuters (Manatron) is developing a scalable program that combines a unique set of low-cost geospatial tools (GPS, GIS, hardware, and software) and training that couples a community-based land rights mapping exercise with support for the establishment of a GIS Center in Freetown. The Center will serve the needs of other STEWARD primary implementing partners and allow for collation, analysis and dissemination of regional and transnational level datasets that in turn feed into a wider monitoring and evaluation program. This approach incorporates the ability to upscale geographic information to support transnational interventions across the Mano River Union. Through the creation of a GIS Center at the STEWARD offices in Freetown, Thomson Reuters will work to build GIS understanding within the Mano River Union and Forestry Departments of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire; and, make data available to stakeholder institutions.

A team of USFS researchers is developing a framework of indicators that will be used to monitor program implementation and effectiveness, and to evaluate the results of STEWARD programming. Products will also include down-scaled climate projections.

A team of USGS researchers will continue to provide technical assistance and geospatial data, including the acquisition of satellite imagery and the production of digital maps for analyses of land use and land cover.

DevResults is developing program management software to assist with monitoring and evaluation, and program reporting and accountability.

In PZ 1, CARE International and Bioclimate are collaborating with communities on both sides of the Sierra Leone-Guinea border.

CARE International is focusing on livelihood and local enterprise activities. By leveraging innovations in conservation agriculture and ecosystems services mapping, CARE International will enable communities to transition away from labor-intensive, forest encroaching practices to more sedentary, soil-enhancing methodologies. Collaboration with the private sector to

24 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones enhance the returns from NTFPs will bring greater incomes and incentives for communities to preserve biodiversity, while the expansion of Village Savings and Loan Groups will provide communities the financial literacy they need to save and plan for the future. Crossborder community collaboration on natural forest management will strengthen and formalize coordination in these cross border areas and reinforce gains in agricultural and NTFP value chains.

Bioclimate is focusing on the community-level development and implementation of the Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) mechanism to support sustainable forest management. The objective of the STEWARD PES is to conserve and expand forest ecosystems by providing communities and community forest groups with the capacity and mechanisms that will enable them to access ecosystem service markets – specifically the carbon market. The objectives of STEWARD PES within PZ 1 are to: 1) increase communities’ ability to monitor and sustainably manage their community forests (agroforestry management zones, AMZs); 2) support gender- balanced, accountable governance of forest resources and PES finance at the local and trans- boundary levels; 3) enhance communities’ adaptive capacity, lower vulnerability, and increase well-being through sustainable forest use and linking existing sustainable livelihood activities to PES finance. These objectives will be achieved through the establishment of a trans-boundary framework for performance-based PES (biodiversity/carbon/water); linking payments to targets and thresholds (e.g., forest cover, hunting levels); developing benefit-sharing systems that mesh financial flows with existing livelihood activities, enterprises and cooperatives; and, building community institutional and governance structures which increase individual and collective capacity and skills.

In PZ 2, United Actors for Rural Development (AUDER) and Flora and Fauna International (FFI) are working together to promote sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity conservation in the Nimba Highlands.

AUDER is focusing on community capacity building, the implementation of sustainable forest management systems, the promotion of agroforestry systems, and the improvement of agricultural and aquaculture productivity. Anticipated outcomes include: • An effective conscience awareness of the communities on the consequences of the degradation of natural resources and climate change; • To reduce emissions caused by deforestation which constitute a measure of adaptation, mitigation of climate change and to allow the conservation of the soil; • To restore forest and freshwater ecosystems, protect habitat and preserve endangered species; • To promote the management and regulation of the community forests for a better involvement of the villages in the sustainable management of their environment; • To increase agricultural production and diversify the sources of revenues of households.

FFI will establish responsive and replicable management models that promote protection of the ecological integrity of the Nimba Mountains. FFI will focus its efforts on the transboundary governance platform for this ecosystem, by working with stakeholders on all three sides of the borders (Guinea, Liberia, and Côte d’Ivoire). FFI will also work with AUDER to enhance the well- being of local people in the face of mounting threats from subsistence pressures, large-scale mining operations and climate change. Within this region, multinational mining companies are in advanced development phases to extract iron ore. FFI has been working with local

25 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones stakeholders and other initiatives to build local capacity to both understand the issues and respond to threats to biodiversity and human well-being. FFI will offer technical training courses relating to management and awareness of mining and conservation activities.

STEWARD Priority Zones – Relevant Conservation Development Work STEWARD activities are being implemented in the context of several past and ongoing projects:

• Work in PZ 1 is expanding upon a previous USAID project, Landscape Management for Improved Livelihoods (LAMIL)-Transboundary Activity, which advanced biodiversity conservation and improved livelihoods through better management of transboundary landscapes (Serge et al. 2009). LAMIL was implemented in 2008-2009 with the objective of improving forest management in areas bordering OKNP in Sierra Leone and Mamou and Madina Oula forests in Guinea.

• In the summer of 2011, the World Bank and the GEF began the Biodiversity Conservation Project aimed at improving the management of three conservation sites in Sierra Leone: OKNP, Kangari Hills, and Loma Mountains. Objectives include: strengthening the national forestry department; strengthening the national framework for biodiversity conservation; achieving a sustainable financing model for conservation; establishing a national conservation database; site planning and implementation; raising awareness of conservation issues; and integrating conservation plans into district planning processes.

• The Program in Environmental Governance in Guinea for Capacity Building & Biodiversity Conservation (PEGG ) began in early 2012, and will continue until July 2013. The primary PEGG objective is to facilitate the Guinean Ministry of Environment’s capacity to apply laws, regulations, codes, and policies that strengthen NRM and biodiversity conservation. Intermediate results and program funding is focusing on environmental governance, better management practices, and increased legal and human capacity.

• A new four-year project that started in late 2012, Building Biocarbon and Rural Development in West Africa (BIODEV), aims to improve livelihoods and the environment through ‘high value’ biocarbon interventions, namely agroforestry, rehabilitation of soils and landscapes and provision of essential products, improved forest management practices and sustainable wood energy systems. The project is being coordinated by the World Forestry Center (ICRAF), and will be operating in Mali, Guinea and Sierra Leone. Other partners include University of Eastern Finland, University of Helsinki and Center for International Forest Research (CIFOR).

• The GEF Mano River Union Ecosystem Conservation and International Water Resources Management project began in late 2012, and will overlap significantly with the STEWARD PZs. The objective is to strengthen the management of transboundary natural resources for sustained ecological benefits and improved livelihoods for the forest adjacent communities. Project components include: o Integrated ecosystem management. Within each of these five landscapes, the project will enable the demarcation and paneling of protected forests, the establishment or rehabilitation of forest plantation, the establishment of guard posts and the creation of ecological centers; Conduct and institutional assessment of the Mano River Union secretariat, to enable targeted support to the Secretariat and the associated national forest management agencies through capacity building.

26 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones o Sustainable management of transboundary waters. The project will complete a Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) and a Strategic Action Program (SAP) for the prioritized basins under the MRU. The TDA will investigate the sector activities and practices that negatively impact the water resources and biodiversity in the region including a root cause analysis. The SAP will elaborate on measures to ensure sustainable development within the Mano River Basin through the use of natural resources while protecting the environment. The GEF resources will be used to build a comprehensive database on the transboundary waters in the Mano River Basin informed by detailed environmental studies and information systems analysis.

5. GAPS AND RECOMMENDATIONS This report provides initial thoughts on gaps and possible priority areas for adaptation funding. It is not an exhaustive list, given time constraints and the limitations of the desktop study methodology. Options should be further vetted through local, regional, and national stakeholder consultations, and considered in light of USAID/West Africa’s funding priorities and the USG Global Climate Change Initiative guidelines.

Regional Adaptation Programs West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change, and decision-makers, stakeholders, and civil society need to be better informed about the threats posed by climate change and extreme weather events. Without experienced and knowledgeable advisors, government officials will have a difficult time adopting policies and drafting laws that protect resources and ease citizens into a new climate paradigm. Increased availability and accessibility of this information will strengthen their capacity to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address current and future regional and transboundary climate challenges. Improving networks and collaboration at the regional level will also help the region strengthen its financial, technical, and human capacities to increase its climate resilience.

Although regional adaptation projects address a number of vulnerabilities shared by West African countries (Annex A), some gaps in regional programming exist. Programs specifically addressing transboundary concerns related to freshwater supply and pastoralism appear largely absent, although efforts to improve the management of transboundary waters are occurring through the work of various regional watershed management authorities. Outside of the STEWARD program, forestry is not adequately addressed at the regional level. Limited attention is given to human health concerns associated with declines in water quality and rising temperatures caused by climate change. Finally, none of the regional programs specifically aim to understand or address the differential gender-based impacts of climate change.

West Africa needs to strengthen regional meteorological capacity to collect data, monitor events, communicate information to stakeholders and develop climate projections. Only a limited number of discrete adaptation projects are focused on this area at this time. Considerable work is needed, for example, in refining GCM predictions and downscaling these predictions to the national, subnational, and, ultimately, local levels. However, these improvements may not be sufficient for adaptation, because of the complex physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic systems dynamics; improvements in climate information and prediction should not be regarded as a panacea for adaptation.

27 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Finally, the STEWARD countries have relatively low participation rates in many of the international and regional efforts (e.g., Climate Change Adaptation and Development Initiative, CC-DARE; Africa Adaptation Program). This low participation likely reflects the recent political instability in the STEWARD countries, and the need to focus on emergency services and basic infrastructure. With increasing stability and greater donor interest, the STEWARD countries should pursue options to participate and leverage these important efforts. In addition, these efforts should leverage the STEWARD program. STEWARD’s integrated, data-intensive programming could be promoted as an Adaptation learning initiative to ‘showcase’ the management of Upper Guinean Forest ecosystem with the participation of forest-resident, forest-dependent communities. The project will generate many lessons in sustainable development and climate adaptation for West Africa and other tropical regions around the world.

General recommendations for adaptation priorities for West Africa include:

• Building the capacity of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and associations involved in climate change adaptation. • Increasing public environmental education and awareness. • Improving weather forecasting and early warning systems. • Decentralizing local governance of financial resources for climate change. • Incorporating traditional adaptation strategies to climate variability and extreme events such as drought into adaptation plans.

Overall, these adaptation priorities align with those identified in the NAPAs of countries in Western Africa (Table 4; Annex B). Greater attention may also be given to regional coordination of actions on the ground—such as the STEWARD program—to enable effective use of resources and reduce the potential for future conflicts.

National Adaptation Programs With respect to national-scale adaptation in the STEWARD countries (De Vit and Parry 2011; Annex A), the forestry, fisheries, livestock/pastoralism, and human health sectors have relatively few projects, and thus none that could be scaled up to a regional level. In addition, coastal zone programs are also sparse, despite their frequent mention as a priority (although the PZs are not located in or near coastal zones). Other gaps in national adaptation projects in STEWARD countries include urbanization, gender, and disaster risk management planning. Within the STEWARD countries, capacity building and training is needed at all levels of society. Mainstreaming adaptation into national economic and social development plans, frameworks, and priorities will be vital to minimizing the effects of climate change on sustainable development. The STEWARD program provides an excellent model of an integrated approach to sustainable development.

As the STEWARD countries move through a democratic transition and plan their futures, there are opportunities to promote climate-resilient economic growth. The transportation, water and sanitation, energy, and communications infrastructure are in disrepair and need to be re-developed to attract investment. This re-development could opt for greener structures and infrastructure, more efficient transport modalities, substitution of renewables for fossil fuels, and more efficient power generation. Similarly, there are opportunities to work with mining companies, national and local governments, and community groups to design an approach to mining development that is responsive to the needs of private and public stakeholders, and manages land and water resources in a sustainable way for all parties.

28 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones In the mining sector, the focus should be on a “no regrets” strategy in response to reduced availability of water and changes in precipitation patterns. Efforts to recycle processed water and improve the utilization of water and energy have the potential to yield win-win outcomes by addressing climate concerns and reducing energy costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing GHG emissions and aerosol, liquid, and solid pollutants will, in most cases, also be indicators of improved efficiency of operations and reduced costs. In addition, improved water utilization and effective solid waste disposal practices will improve downstream water quality, thereby reducing external costs of other water users to treat water to standards required for potable water use. The potential costs of adaptation options can be reduced through energy efficiency programs such as co-generation. While the direct impact on global warming may be minimal, the positive impact on the net availability of clean water and other resources would be marked. Adaptation also will require the government to more closely regulate the location and activities of industry. Plans to open up new tracts of land for mining should be evaluated in the context of water basin planning and water availability to assess the potential external costs of these new developments. One potential compensatory system could involve new mining operations supporting community water treatment and storage reservoir systems. To ease the transition to a more socially responsible mining and manufacturing industry, support could be given to develop corporate responsibility programs and policies that contribute to adaptation activities in the regions where they work.

STEWARD Priority Zone Adaptation Programs Current STEWARD programming uses an integrated approach to biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and improvement in access to clean water. Unlike many of the regional and national adaptation projects, gender issues are being addressed in all relevant projects.

STEWARD programming could be expanded in several ways: • Human health . Although STEWARD emphasizes access to clean water, there are opportunities to support water supply programs at the nexus of human health, watershed protection and restoration, and climate change. The recent WASH assessment for the STEWARD program (Water and Sanitation for Africa 2012) provides detailed opportunities for interventions. • Freshwater resources . Although the STEWARD countries have ample water sources and supplies, there appears to very limited focus on water conservation, reuse, and use efficiency. USAID/WA funding for climate change adaptation is targeting climate-smart agriculture at the farm level. Additional support could be provided to support the monitoring of data such as rainfall, water levels, river flow, and water quality. Support for transboundary water management practices and formal agreements should be provided; the new GEF Mano River Union project appears to be addressing some of these issues, and USAID/WA is encouraged to look for leveraging opportunities. Additional adaptation approaches are also possible with the mining sector, as described below. • Mining and Industry . STEWARD programming could increase programming investments in artisanal mining. There is extensive, artisanal-scale gold mining occurring in PZ 1, and some artisanal-scale mining in PZ 2. Although the complete prevention of small-scale mining may not be possible, incorporating best management practices related to extraction and reclamation into community trainings would help reduce environmental and health impacts, , and to improve the adaptive capacity of otherwise degraded sites, thereby restoring some ecological function. In PZ 2, FFI is addressing industrial-scale mining operations and governance. • Livestock production . Livestock production could be expanded, which could help to address food insecurity and be incorporated into sustainable livelihoods (e.g., cane rat ranching). Appropriate management practices would be needed to prevent forest encroachment, but this

29 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones could reduce poaching and hunting-related bushfires. There are very few activities focusing on the improvement and sustainability of livestock production. • Infrastructure and energy . These sectors could be further examined within current activities, and is a promising area for innovative approaches. In particular, the use of appropriately incentivized, improved cook stoves or solar lights could help to reduce deforestation. Also, pilot efforts could explore small-scale hydropower and irrigation to examine energy and agriculture sector alternatives. In addition, community-based resource management planning could include planning for infrastructure development that would address local needs and potential climate change impacts. For instance, water and sanitation facilities should be designed and situated with regard to potential flood events. • Early warning system . The STEWARD communication program could pilot systems that broadcast early climate-related warnings related to agriculture, or to extreme events such as flooding. • Disaster/risk management planning . The STEWARD program, as part of the educational outreach and training components for communities and government staff, could incorporate modules that address disaster and risk management planning. In addition, a new USDA Forest Service International Seminar on disaster/risk management planning is being developed. These seminars are a means through which USAID and partners from government, NGO, and other sectors can quickly build capacity and share information with other international leaders. • Traditional Knowledge . Work with local communities in both PZs could investigate traditional, indigenous adaptation strategies to climate variability and extreme events, such as drought, into adaptation plans. Indigenous and traditional farming and conservation techniques can offer insights and tools for how to better manage water, soil, and biodiversity resources. For instance, small-scale water management and irrigation programs can help to improve livelihoods and promote local economic development while also reducing vulnerability to climate change. This last recommendation is already incorporated into current activities, but is highlighted here to encourage the use of diverse approaches to adaptation, including those approaches that have been practiced successfully for generations.

The STEWARD program—with an emphasis on integrated programming to address sustainable development, biodiversity conservation, and climate change—should make a strong effort to share the results and progress of these activities, using a variety of media, with all relevant stakeholders, including government agencies, the donor community, NGOs, academia and the public, and especially private sector firms. Case studies and best management practices could also be uploaded to the site for access by all interested parties. Education and training is already planned as part of the funded programming, but efforts to communicate best practices beyond the STEWARD geography are not defined. In addition, efforts to share progress and results by the partners working in different PZs should be encouraged to increase success wherever possible, and to avoid mistakes. Finally, STEWARD activities should connect with the relevant conservation development projects (Section 4.3).

30 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones ANNEX A. CURRENT ADAPTATION PROGRAMS Country(s) Name Objectives Funder(s) Implementer(s) Type of project Duration Focus Geographic focus STEWARD - PZ Programs Côte STEWARD This communication program will use USAID-USFS PCI-Media Impact Knowledge 2012- Biodiversity; STEWARD area, d’Ivoire, Communications traditional tools and social marketing Communication; 2015 Climate Change; targeting PZs: Guinea, Program to positively change behaviors and Capacity Building Water; Health; Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, shift social norms with regard to Sanitation; Guinea, Liberia, Sierra biodiversity conservation, climate Ecosystem Sierra Leone Leone change, water, sanitation and Conservation hygiene and natural resource management. Côte Use of GIS to support Scalable program that combines low- USAID-USFS Thomson Reuters Knowledge 2012- Biodiversity; STEWARD area, d’Ivoire, STEWARD cost geospatial tools and training, (Manatron) Communication; 2015 Climate Change; targeting PZs: Guinea, including a community-based land Capacity Building Ecosystem Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, rights mapping exercise and support Conservation Guinea, Liberia, Sierra for the establishment of a GIS Center Sierra Leone Leone in Freetown. Côte Program Management Database to facilitate monitoring and USAID-USFS DevResults Knowledge 2012- Biodiversity; STEWARD area, d’Ivoire, Software evaluation of STEWARD program. Communication; 2015 Climate Change; targeting PZs: Guinea, Capacity Building Water; Health; Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sanitation; Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Ecosystem Sierra Leone Leone Conservation; Livelihoods Côte STEWARD Monitoring Framework of indicators used to USAID-USFS USFS Knowledge 2012- Biodiversity; STEWARD area, d’Ivoire, and Evaluation monitor implementation and Communication; 2015 Climate Change; targeting PZs: Guinea, effectiveness, and to evaluate Capacity Building; Water; Health; Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, results, of STEWARD program Reporting and Sanitation; Guinea, Liberia, Sierra activities. Products will also include Accountability Ecosystem Sierra Leone Leone down-scaled climate projections. Conservation; Livelihoods Côte Geospatial support to Provide technical assistance and USAID-USFS USGS Knowledge 2008- Biodiversity; STEWARD area, d’Ivoire, STEWARD program geospatial data: acquiring satellite Communication; 2015 Climate Change; targeting PZs: Guinea, imagery and producing digital maps Capacity Building; Water; Health; Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, for analyses of land use and land Technology Sanitation; Guinea, Liberia, Sierra cover in transboundary areas. Transfer Ecosystem Sierra Leone Leone Conservation; Livelihoods Guinea, PZ 1 livelihood and local Transition forest encroaching USAID-USFS Care International, Knowledge 2012- Biodiversity; STEWARD PZ 1: Sierra enterprise activities practices to more sedentary, soil- Cornell University, Communication; 2015 Climate Change; Guinea, Sierra Leone enhancing methods that increase Conservation Capacity Building; Water; Health; Leone NTFP incomes, protect biodiversity. Society of Sierra Alternative Sanitation; Expand Village Savings and Loan Leone, PRIDE, Njala Livelihoods Ecosystem Groups to save and plan for future. University Conservation; Livelihoods

31 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Guinea, Community-level Conserve and expand forest USAID-USFS BioClimate Knowledge 2012- Biodiversity; STEWARD PZ 1: Sierra Payment for Ecosystem ecosystems by providing Communication; 2015 Climate Change; Guinea, Sierra Leone Services to support communities with capacity and Capacity Building; Water; Health; Leone sustainable forest mechanisms to access ecosystem Alternative Sanitation; management service markets, specifically carbon. Livelihoods Ecosystem Conservation; Livelihoods Côte Community-based Improve community capacity USAID-USFS AUDER, PRIDE Knowledge 2012- Biodiversity; STEWARD PZ 2: d’Ivoire, natural resource building, implementation of Communication; 2015 Climate Change; Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, management and sustainable forest management Capacity Building; Water; Health; Guinea, Liberia Liberia sustainable livelihoods. systems, promotion of agroforestry Alternative Sanitation; systems, and improvement of Livelihoods Ecosystem agricultural and aquaculture Conservation; productivity. Livelihoods; Agriculture Côte Transboundary Establish responsive and replicable USAID-USFS Fauna and Flora Governance; 2012- Government STEWARD PZ 2: d’Ivoire, governance platform for management models that promote International, Capacity Building; 2015 Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, the Nimba Mountains protection of the ecological integrity Mano River Union Guinea, Liberia Liberia of the Nimba Mountains. National Programs Guinea Adaptation to Climate Development of adaptation DFID and Université de Research 2008-? Health Forested zones Change and Strategies measures in Guinea’s forested areas IDRC through Conakry (Centre to Reduce the Risk of and to help reduce the risk of water- the CCAA d’Études et de Water-borne Illnesses in borne illnesses. Expected results program Recherche en Guinea’s Forested Zones include adaptation tools that account Environnement) for sanitary conditions and sustainable water management. Guinea Increased Resilience and The objective is to strengthen the LDCF UNDP Capacity building; 2009- Coastal zone Coastal areas; Adaptation to Adverse protection of vulnerable Guinean Knowledge 2014 management none of PZs in Impacts of Climate coastal communities/areas against communication; coastal areas Change in Guinea’s climate change/variability, and to Community-based Vulnerable Coastal reinforce their adaptive capacity. adaptation Zones Liberia Enhancing Resilience of The aim of the project is to reduce LDCF UNDP Capacity building; 2010 – Coastal zone National Vulnerable Coastal vulnerability and build resilience of Assessment; 2014 management Areas to Climate Change local communities and socio- Community based Risks economic sectors to threats of adaptation climate change on Liberia’s coasts. Liberia Lighting One Million To support the development of GEF; co- Liberia Rural and Capacity building; 2011- Energy National Lives in Liberia sustainable energy supplies and financing Renewable Energy policy formation 2015 services in Liberia. Agency Liberia Enhancing Resilience to To increase resilience of poor, LDCF UNDP; Liberia Capacity building; 2011- Agriculture National Climate Change by agriculturally-dependent Ministry of policy formation 2015 Mainstreaming communities and decrease Agriculture Adaption Concerns into vulnerability of agricultural sector to Agricultural Sector climate change in Liberia. 32 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Development in Liberia Liberia Installation of mini- To develop the market environment GEF UNIDO Capacity-building; 2011- Energy; Water National hydro infrastructure for for improving the access to mini- Infrastructure; 2014 energy & irrigation hydro based modern energy services Policy formation along with irrigation facilities in rural areas. Liberia Strengthening Liberia’s To strengthen Liberia’s climate- LDCF LDCF Capacity building; Climate National Capability to Provide related monitoring capabilities, early Knowledge Information Climate Information and warning systems and available communication Services Services to Enhance information for responding to Climate Resilient climate shocks and planning Development and adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to Climate Change Liberia Strengthening Local The project seeks to develop the UNDP-GEF Farmers Associated Community-based 2010 – Forestry; Lake Piso Basin; Community Capacity to capacities of local communities in to Conserve the Adaptation; 2011 Biodiversity none of PZs in Combat Climate Change mitigating the impacts of climate Environment Capacity building Lake Piso Basin and Biodiversity Loss in change through establishment of the Lake Piso Region woodlot plantation in the Lake Piso Basin. The project will also reduce the level of mangrove forest depletion in the Lake Piso Basin. In addition, the project will address the issue poverty reduction, environmental sustainability and food security. Sierra Strengthening Climate To strengthen the climate monitoring LDCF LDCF Capacity building; Climate National Leone Information and Early capabilities, early warning systems Knowledge Information Warning Systems in and available information for communication Services Western and Central responding to climate shocks and Africa for Climate planning adaptation to climate Resilient Development change in Sierra Leone. and Adaptation to Climate Change - Sierra Leone Sierra Promoting Mini Grids To develop a market based approach, GEF UNIDO Capacity-building; 2011- Energy; Water National Leone Based on Small through public private partnerships, Infrastructure; 2015 Hydropower for for promoting Small Hydro Power Policy formation Productive Uses in Sierra (SHP) based mini-grids to stimulate Leone productive capacities in the country. Sierra Building adaptive Adaptive capacity to plan for and LDCF UNDP Capacity building Water National Leone capacity to catalyze respond to change provided to water active public and private and environmental agencies, local sector participation to deciders and communities to better manage the exposure manage water supply services and and sensitivity of water coastal ecosystem exposure and 33 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones supply services to sensitivity to climate change. climate change in Sierra Leone Sierra Integrating Adaptation To lessen the impact of climate LDCF IFAD; Sierra Leone Capacity-building; 2011- Agriculture National Leone to Climate Change into change on vulnerable rural Ministries of Lands Knowledge 2015 Agricultural Production communities, as well as on natural and Agriculture Communication and Food Security in resources critical for sustaining Sierra Leone agricultural production and increasing food security. Sierra Energy Efficient To promote sustainable use of GEF; co- UNDP-GEF; Capacity-building 2013- Energy; Forestry National Leone Production and biomass energy resources through financing Ministry of Energy 2017 Utilization of Charcoal the application of renewable and Water through Innovative charcoal and improved cook stoves. Resources; Technologies and Environment Private Sector Protection Agency - Involvement Sierra Leone Participation in Regional and Global Programs Côte Interdisciplinary and This project promoted French Inter-institutional Research 2007- Ecosystem Regional: d’Ivoire, Participative Research interdisciplinary research on the Ministry of Research Agency 2011 Conservation Benin, Burkina Guinea on Interactions between environmental and social impacts of Foreign for Development Faso, Cameroon, Ecosystems, Climate and climate change to scientifically Affairs Cape Verde, CAR, Societies in West Africa support political responses to climate Chad, Côte change. Key objectives were to d’Ivoire, Gambia, promote research science and to Ghana, Guinea, increase the capacity of African Guinea-Bissau, researchers. Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo Côte Darwin Nimba Project Improved collaboration between DEFRA Fauna & Flora Research; 2009- Biodiversity; Regional: Côte d’Ivoire, stakeholders across three sectors International; Management 2012 Ecosystem d’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea, and three national boundaries Conservation Planning; Capacity Conservation Liberia Liberia reduces threats to biodiversity and International; Building livelihoods from large-scale, ArcelorMittal; multinational mining operations. Mano River Union Côte West African Science WASCAL is a large-scale research- German Bonn University Research 2010 - Agriculture; Regional: Benin, d’Ivoire Service on Climate and focused program designed to help Federal present Ecosystem Burkina Faso, Adapted Land Use tackle mitigation and adaptation Ministry of Conservation Côte d’Ivoire, The (WASCAL) challenges and to enhance the Education Gambia, Ghana, resilience of human and and Research Mali, Niger, environmental systems to climate Nigeria, Senegal, change and increased variability. Togo Côte An Ecosystems Using an ecosystem approach, this DFID and Centre Suisse de Knowledge 2008-? Freshwater Regional: Côte d’Ivoire Approach to Managing project aims to strengthen the IDRC through Recherches communication supply; Human d’Ivoire, Water and Health in the capacities of communities to adapt the CCAA Scientifiques en health Mauritania, Context of Climate to drought aggravated by sudden program Côte d’Ivoire Senegal, Togo 34 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Change: Adaptive flooding in two contexts (semi-arid strategies to drought and tropical humid) in West Africa. and flooding in four The project will establish a regional West African countries platform for collaboration on the effects of climate change on water and health in West Africa through engagement and knowledge sharing. Guinea Adapting Fishing Policy This project aims to improve fishing Canada IDRC; Environment Capacity building; 2008 – Fisheries Regional: Cape to Climate Change with practices and policies in the face of and Development Policy formation 2011 Verde, Gambia, the Aid of Scientific and climate change in six countries. It will Action in the Third and integration; Guinea, Guinea- Indigenous Knowledge do so by facilitating twice-yearly World Research Bissau, meetings at three levels (sub- Mauritania and regional, national and local), bringing Senegal together political decision-makers, researchers, representatives of fisher associations and managers of projects and programs. The researchers will gather scientific and endogenous knowledge that will allow the participants to explore together various possible scenarios and evaluate different adaptation strategies. Liberia Capacity Development The project is a targeted capacity UN UNDP Capacity building; 2008- Government Global: for Policy Makers: development initiative that supports Foundation; Policy formation 2011 19 countries Addressing climate two goals: 1. To increase national Switzerland; and integration; including Liberia change in key sectors capacity to co-ordinate Ministerial Finland; Knowledge views for more effective participation Norway; communication in the UNFCCC process; and 2. To Spain assess investment and financial flows to address climate change for selected key sectors. As a result of this project, both the technical understanding of key climate change issues and their economic and policy implications within the context of the Convention will be enhanced. Sierra Evolution of Protected The project will focus on developing GEF; co- UNEP Capacity building 2009- Biodiversity; Regional: Core: Leone, Côte Area Systems with science-based national- and regional- financing 2015 Ecosystem Chad, The d’Ivoire regard to Climatic, scale tools to support improved Conservation Gambia, Mali, Institutional, Social, and management of protected area Sierra Leone, and Economic Conditions in systems in response to climate and Togo; Plus: the West Africa Region other change impacts. Opportunities Burkina Faso, (also known as Climate for transboundary collaboration will Côte d’Ivoire and Proofing Protected play a large part in the project Ghana Areas in West Africa) activities. 35 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones ANNEX B. PROPOSED ADAPTATION PRIORITY ACTIONS

Country Name Objective Type of Project Priority Sector(s) Geographic Focus Côte Awareness raising for different actors To integrate the aspect of climate change in the decision- Knowledge Human Health National d’Ivoire making process communication Côte Health professional training To train health professionals to identify climate related Capacity building Human health National d’Ivoire issues, the most vulnerable populations and their needs Côte Create collaborations between the Ivorian To better protect populations against climate-related health Knowledge Human health National d’Ivoire health care systems and those of other risks communication countries as well as with international organizations Côte Setting up emergency measures in case of To reinforce health care systems in zones where most Policy formation and Human health; National d’Ivoire extreme climate events vulnerable populations live and prevent local populations of implementation Disaster risk extreme climatic events management Côte Promote research on climate change To prepare to face future changes Research Multi-sectoral National d’Ivoire impacts and vulnerability Côte Reinforce knowledge on natural To apprehend climate related risks for the population Research Disaster risk National d’Ivoire catastrophes and extreme events related management to climate change Côte Elaborate and establish a national strategy To mitigate climate change-related catastrophes Policy formation and Disaster risk National d’Ivoire to mitigate climate change-related implementation management catastrophes Guinea Support the development of community To contribute to environmental conservation and poverty Capacity building Forestry Mandiana, Kankan, and private cashew reduction Dinguiraye, Kouroussa, Dabola, Tougué, Mali, Koudara, Beyla , Boké, Siguiri, Gaoual Guinea Support for the implementation of To contribute to the sustainable management of forest Capacity building Forestry Faranah, Kissidougou, management plans for community forests resources and fight against the adverse effects of climate Gueckédou change. Guinea Valorization of knowledge and positive To promote ecosystem conservation and uses with high Capacity building; Ecosystem Kouroussa, Beyla, indigenous practices ecologic values. Assessment conservation Koundara, Boké Guinea Initiation of coastal populations to the To contribute to food self-sufficiency and to preserve the Capacity building Coastal zone Boffa, Dubréka, technique of mangrove oyster farming mangrove ecosystem management; Forécariah Fisheries Guinea Soil anti-erosion and protection To fight against land degradation to mitigate climate change Capacity building; Agriculture Tougué, Mali, Lélouma, impacts Knowledge Dalaba, Mamou, Koubia communication Guinea Promoting the use of solar energy for To contribute to the preservation of the mangrove by the use Knowledge Energy National drying fish to reduce the use of wood for of solar dryers communication; Field smoking implementation Guinea Promotion of compressed earth brick to To contribute to environmental preservation and Capacity building; Energy Kankan, Kouroussa, reduce the environmental impacts of improvement of living conditions of populations Knowledge Siguiri, Dabola, Faranah, cooking communication; Field Dinguiraye, Mamou, implementation Labé, Kindia,

36 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Kissidougou, N’Zérékoré, Macenta Guinea Intensification of cultivation of pearl millet Promote the cultivation of resistant varieties to drought in Knowledge Agriculture Koundara, Gaoual, Mali, in northern Guinea order to ensure food security. communication Siguiri, Kankan, Mandiana, Dinguiraye Guinea Promoting the use of solar energy in the To contribute to the preservation of mangrove ecosystems Capacity building; Energy; Coastal Boffa, Dubréka, extraction of sea salt and increase salt production. Knowledge sharing zone management Forécariah, Coyah, Boké Guinea Promotion of wire fences and hedges in To limit timber harvest and promote re-vegetation Knowledge Forestry Dalaba, Labé, Koubia, Middle Guinea communication; Mali, Lélouma, Tougué Capacity building Guinea Development of an early warning system To reduce poverty and secure food production by means of Capacity building; Field Disaster risk National to secure agricultural productivity an early warning system. implementation reduction; Agriculture Guinea Fire management and prevention To contribute to the preservation of the savanna ecosystems Knowledge Fire management Faranah, Dabola, for sustainable development. communication; Kouroussa, Dinguiraye, Capacity building Siguiri, Mandiana, Kankan, Kérouané, Beyla, Kissidougou, Gueckédou Guinea Protection of the agricultural areas on the To limit the effect of saltwater intrusion in the coastal plains Capacity building; Field Coastal zone Forécariah, Boffa waterfront of Kaback and Koba to improve their productivity implementation management Guinea Dissemination of Multilateral To contribute to the environmental protection and the Knowledge Government National Environmental Agreements and national sustainable use of resources communication legal texts relating to the protection and sustainable use of natural resources Guinea Promotion of environmental education for To contribute to the preservation of coastal and marine Knowledge Coastal zone Boké, Boffa, Dubréka, coastal communities environments communication management; Coyah, Conakry, Marine Forécariah management Guinea Building of multipurpose micro-dams To control water for different uses Capacity building; Field Freshwater supply Siguiri, Gaoual, implementation Lélouma, Dinguiraye Guinea Building of water retention systems on hills To control water for different uses Capacity building; Field Freshwater supply Dinguiraye, Tougué, implementation Gaoual Guinea Improved wells To promote the use of groundwater to meet drinking water Capacity building; Field Freshwater supply Mali, Koubia, needs. implementation Mandiana, Siguiri, Koundara Guinea Purification of surface waters by Hydropur To improve access to drinking water Capacity building; Field Freshwater supply Mandiana, Tougué, implementation Boké, Beyla Guinea Expansion of impluviums To meet drinking water needs of populations in isolated areas Capacity building; Field Freshwater supply Lélouma, Labé, Mali, implementation Tougué, Dinguiraye, Koundara, Mandiana Guinea Protection of spawning grounds in the To protect spawning areas and promote sustainable Knowledge Fisheries Boffa, Dubréka, estuaries of the Fatala, Konkouré and management of resources communication Forécariah Méllacoré Guinea Irrigated rice development in Middle and To ensure food security and to mitigate the adverse effects of Capacity building; Agriculture Siguiri, Koundara Upper Guinea shifting cultivation. Knowledge 37 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones communication Guinea Promotion of small ruminant livestock To increase populations’ incomes, to contribute to food Knowledge Agriculture Siguiri, Kouroussa, Mali, security and to reduce pressure on natural resources communication Koundara, Beyla Guinea Promotion of horticultural crops To improve the incomes of targeted groups and to contribute Knowledge Agriculture Kouroussa, Koundara, to food security communication Lola, Mali Guinea The creation of cane rat ranches to reduce To improve the living conditions of populations and the Knowledge Agriculture Kérouané, Kankan, bush fires and improve the living preservation of the environment. The cane rats are the main communication; Field Beyla, Lola, Guéckédou conditions of rural populations resource for food and hunting them often causes bushfires. implementation Liberia Improved Monitoring of Climate Change The principal objective of this project is to enhance adaptive Field implementation Climate information National capacity by rebuilding the national hydro-meteorological services monitoring system and improved networking for the measurement of climatic parameters. Sierra Develop an Early Warning System in Sierra To build the capacity of the Sierra Leone Meteorological Capacity building Disaster risk National Leone Leone Department to properly monitor weather systems and management; climate and in particular to be in a position to provide Early Government; Warning of Imminent Hazardous Weather or Climate. Climate information services Sierra Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of To rehabilitate and improve the meteorological/climatic data Field implementation Climate information National Leone Meteorological/Climate Monitoring collection, data analysis and storage of the country. services Stations throughout the Country Sierra Capacity Building of the Meteorological To recruit and/or train meteorological personnel at various Capacity building Climate information National Leone Department through the Training of levels in order to capacitate the Meteorological Department services; Personnel for the Country’s Adaptation to to support adaptation action. The expected outcome of the Government Climate Change project is that the department would have enough meteorological personnel for climate/meteorological data collection, analyses, storage and/or dissemination to end- users. Sierra Sensitization and Awareness Raising To make the public, especially the women and children, Knowledge Gender National Leone Campaigns on Climate Change Impacts on aware of the three conventions on climate change, communication Women relating to the three Conventions desertification and biodiversity and how to work together in of Biodiversity, Desertification and the meeting our obligation as enshrined in these conventions. UNFCCC Sierra Development of Inland Valley Swamps for To increase the area under cultivation for increased rice Capacity building Agriculture Moyamba District Leone Rice Production in the Moyamba District production. Sierra Development of an Integrated Natural To promote community based approaches in agricultural Capacity building; Agriculture; National Leone Resources and Environmental development and environmental management and to Assessment; Policy Government Management Program for Sierra Leone conduct a natural resources inventory and mapping of formation and degraded areas. integration Sierra Development of Irrigation and Drainage To develop irrigation and drainage systems in the vulnerable Field implementation Agriculture; Bombali District Leone Systems for Agricultural Production in the areas of the country to increase food production. Freshwater supply Bombali District Sierra Promote the Use of Renewable Energy For the Government, the objective is the sustainable Field implementation; Energy Selected towns and Leone (Solar Energy) in Sierra Leone and Improve exploitation and the efficient use of the country’s renewable Knowledge villages Energy Efficiency and the Conservation of energy resources and power production in order to improve communication Energy Resources the quality of life of the people Sierra Establishment of new Forest Reserves, To exercise legal and effective control over the un-reserved Policy formation and Forestry; Ecosystem National 38 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones Leone Protected Areas and National Parks in forest lands by the establishment of Protected Areas, integration; Capacity conservation Sierra Leone National Parks, Sanctuaries and Forest Reserves for the building; Field conservation of the country’s unique ecosystems and their implementation biological diversity and to stem the rate of wanton destruction of the country’s forest resources Sierra Management and Protection of Forest To put all catchment forests of national importance under Policy formation and Forestry; National Leone Reserves and Catchment areas including sustainable management for water, soil and ecosystem integration; Capacity Watershed Wetlands conservation, and multiple production of forest products and building management; services and to place all mangroves and other wetlands of Ecosystem national importance under sustainable management and be conservation substantially developed. Sierra Institutional Strengthening of the Water To build capacity in the water resources sector through Capacity building Freshwater supply National Leone Resources Sector in Sierra Leone institutional strengthening with a view to ensuring the effective delivery of hydrological services, predicated on the realization that workable options for adapting to climate change is consistent with collaborative research, monitoring, and efficient management of our finite resources. Sierra Promotion of Rain Water Harvesting and To increase water availability for domestic and commercial Knowledge Freshwater supply National Leone Development of an Integrated use through sensitization of communities about the communication Management System for Fresh Water possibility of capturing, storing and utilizing rainwater. Bodies Sierra Development of an Integrated Coastal To delineate flood and erosion hazard areas; to improve the Research; Policy Coastal zone National Leone Zone Management Plan for Sierra Leone quality of topographic data; to assemble stakeholders, data formation and management; and information on current understanding of coastal integration Government processes in the country. Sierra Rehabilitation of Degraded Coastal To restore the ecological integrity and productivity of coastal Knowledge Coastal zone Northern Region Leone Habitats in the Northern Region of Sierra habitants; to restore source of livelihood for coastal dwellers; communication; management Leone and to ensure proper management of coastal habitats Research Sierra Development and Enactment of To develop appropriate policies and regulations for planning Policy formation and Coastal zone National Leone Appropriate policies and Regulations growth and development of coastal community’s critical integration management; Relevant to the Development of Coastal coastal ecosystems preservation. Urban areas Communities, Urban Growth Planning, and Critical Coastal Ecosystems Preservation Sierra Establishment of a National Sea-Level To have an operational permanent sea-level observing station Research; Assessment Climate information National Leone Observing System for Sierra Leone for reporting to the national marine meteorological service; services and to collect, analyze and make available data products for practical and/or scientific applications. Sierra Permanent Study Program of the Multi To improve knowledge about the biology of the multi-species Research; Capacity Marine Fisheries National Leone Species Fisheries marine fisheries and to generate data. building Sierra Delineation and Restoration of Vulnerable To prevent or reduce the destruction of vulnerable fishing Research; Capacity Fisheries Western Area of Sierra Leone Habitats and Ecosystems in the Western habitats and to reduce the possibility of the decline of fishery building Leone Area of Sierra Leone productivity Sierra Improvement in the Quality of Fisheries To improve on the quality of data and research for better Research Fisheries National Leone Related Data and Research understanding of the different types of ecosystems. Sierra Monitoring and Control of Malaria in the To prevent and/or reduce malaria infection of vulnerable Knowledge Human health Moyamba District Leone Moyamba District of Sierra Leone groups of Moyamba District’s population; and to increase the communication; Field 39 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones access of the population to insecticide treated bed-nets. implementation Sierra Development of Water and Sanitation To improve the existing unsanitary conditions and develop Knowledge Urban areas; Waste Western Area Leone Program Activities in Slums of Western SL appropriate water and sanitation projects. communication; Field management; implementation Freshwater supply Sierra Monitoring and Control of HIV/AIDS To galvanize support for HIV/AIDS prevention activities; to Capacity building Human health Koinadugu district Leone Prevention Activities in the Koinadugu improve the community’s capability to control and prevent District of Sierra Leone HIV/AIDS; and to reduce climate change related stress on HIV/AIDS control and prevention systems. Sierra Monitoring, Evaluation and Control of To improve existing unsanitary conditions and develop Knowledge Urban areas; Waste Freetown Leone Water and Sanitation Activities in Slum appropriate water and sanitation projects for urban slums in communication; Field management; Areas of Freetown Freetown. implementation Freshwater supply

40 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones ANNEX C. DESKTOP STUDY TERMS OF REFERENCE

I. Background The broad goal of climate change adaptation is to create societies that are resilient to adverse climate change impacts and have the ability to rise to both the challenges and the opportunities presented by a changing climate. USAID activities that support adaptation should be built upon climate vulnerability and adaptation analyses; this desktop study is an assessment being undertaken by USAID/West Africa.

Climate change trends affecting West Africa include changing rainfall patterns, increasing temperatures, and rising sea levels. USAID’s adaptation investments will assist West Africa to identify and reduce its vulnerability to such climate change impacts, in order to continue to achieve its development objectives.

II. Objectives The report will be used to inform the in-country assessment process for possible future USAID/West Africa -funded activities addressing climate change adaptation challenges. The report will also serve as a model for other USAID missions that are undertaking similar processes, by demonstrating what kinds of sources to review, what level of detail is appropriate, and what kind of logic to use to set priorities and focus in on particular sectors or gaps.

III. Scope This is part of a priority-setting exercise to inform USAID/West Africa for adaptation programming. This desktop study will summarize the climate change trends and projections relevant for STEWARD priority zones; describe the key climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation challenges; identify relevant national priorities and areas where those are not already being addressed by other donors; and present and justify recommendations for sectors, actors, and/or partners that should be the focus of climate change activities carried out by the STEWARD program.

The desktop study should consider the following issues and sectors, at a minimum: • conflict and security; • migration patterns; • development trends that increase climate vulnerability; • agriculture and food security; • health; • tourism; • marine/fisheries/other coastal (e.g., natural resources management, infrastructure); • energy, including hydropower; • urban (infrastructure, services, etc.); and, • mining The desktop study should also consider the resources and inputs that are critical for these sectors and for the country’s development priorities, including but not limited to the following: water resources, including major watersheds, river systems, river deltas, and water delivery and sanitation systems; and, forests, other terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity.

The desktop study will draw from existing literature, including national plans and reports on key climate vulnerability/sensitivity initiatives. Where useful, information may be synthesized into tables and charts, such as sector-by-sector tables summarizing vulnerability of valued assets to alternative climate impacts.

IV. Contents The following is a suggested outline for the report. USAID/West Africa is invited to suggest changes to help ensure that the final product is logical and useful.

41 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones ANNOTATED OUTLINE (DRAFT) 1. Introduction (1/2 - 1 page) 1.1 Background 1.2 Purpose of the Report 1.3 Approach and Methods 2. Development context (1-2 pages) 2.1 Economic - key sectors in terms of GDP, employment, priorities for economic growth 2.2 Social – demographics, trends, priorities for human development 2.3 Ecological – critical ecosystems, geography, priorities for sustainable ecological management and conservation 3. Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability (3-6 pages) 3.1 Impacts of Concern 3.1.1 Non-climate stresses (brief summary) - population, pollution, migration, corruption, etc.; socioeconomic scenario for near and middle term (e.g, urbanization, land development, population). 3.1.2 Weather and climate – observed trends, projected climate change: temperature, precipitation, storms, sea level rise, etc., both near and middle term 3.2 Valued Assets: What is at Risk? 3.2.1 Anticipated impacts of climate change from literature to give an idea about relative significance of concerns (i.e., risk) (e.g., drought impacts on food security and agriculture, health, flood impacts on infrastructure, impacts on water supply for different uses, etc.). Discussion of timing, severity, and consequences, to the extent possible. 3.3 Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity 4. Existing efforts and remaining gaps (3-5 pages) 4.1 Adaptation priorities of the national governments in the Mano River Union States of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia (STEWARD priority zones) – sectors, geographic areas, and/or activities - as laid out in policies and reports 4.2 Summary of ongoing adaptation programs / efforts by the government, other donors, NGOs, universities, regional platforms, multilateral development banks, and the private sector, within or near the STEWARD priority zones 4.3 Matrix or other visual tool to demonstrate high-priority gaps 5. Recommendations Bibliography

V. Activities All of this work effort will be performed through a U.S.-based desktop study; sources to be reviewed may be in French or English. The report outline, approach, and content will be developed with oversight by the AOR in USAID/West Africa. USAID/ West Africa has contributed to this Terms of Reference and will provide US Forest Service with country context and resources as appropriate.

VI. Key deliverables The contractor will submit deliverables according to the following schedule: A draft is requested by November 21. The final report is due no later than December 17. The report will be delivered to the AOR, STEWARD Program Manager and STEWARD Director in Microsoft Word and PDF formats. No hard copies are needed.

42 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones ANNEX D. POTENTIAL PZ 3 WONEGIZI (L IBERIA ) AND ZIAMA (G UINEA )

The Wonegizi Mountains are situated in the north-west of Liberia along the international border with Guinea. The Wonegizi range, which includes the third-highest point in Liberia, is a southern spur of the Guinea Highlands and the site is contiguous with the Massif du Ziama Biosphere Reserve in Guinea. The terrain is rugged with broad cliffs and rocky outcrops. The vegetation consists of a mix of evergreen and semi-deciduous forest, similar in composition to that found on the Wologizi Mountains, 50 km to the west. The sites spans a still largely intact transition from lowland rainforest to semi-montane Parinari - dominated forest at altitude. There are also extensive natural patches of savanna at the foot of the Wonegizi Mountains and on slopes in the north of Liberia. Biodiversity richness includes chimpanzees and other primates, elephants and pygmy hippo. Wonegizi is a unique habitat for rock fowl ( Picathartes spp .).

An earlier proposal for the area to be designated a National Park was made in 2000 and 2008 , but no formal designation has occurred. The area remains unlogged, largely because of the terrain. However, prior to the civil war, attempts were being made to obtain a logging concession for the north-western side of Wonegizi. With the return of political stability the threat of logging is likely to be renewed. There are no villages within the proposed reserve, but many around its borders. Forest clearance for shifting agricultural cultivation is a problem. Primary crops include rice, groundnuts, beans, and tubers; tree crops include cocoa, cola, coffee, and plantain. Palm oil production is increasing in the area. Other threats include impacts of political instability in the area and in neighboring parts of Sierra Leone and Guinea, as well as hunting, logging, and iron-ore mining.

Both the World Bank and GEF have invested in projects related to land tenure and formal protected area status for the Wonegizi range.

The Ziama Massif Biosphere Reserve, encompassing 116,170 ha, was designated in 1980. The Reserve is located along the Liberian border in the south-east of Guinea, and the western boundary of the Reserve is contiguous with the Wonegizi Mountains in Liberia. The variable topography includes valleys, plateaus, rounded ridges, rocky peaks, sheer cliffs and bar granite outcrops. The whole area was forested originally, but primary forest now remains only in the remote upland parts of the south-west, next to the Liberian border. Most of the remainder, including the valleys, is now secondary forest. There are also areas of swamp, wooded savannas, and plains. The Ziama Massif Biosphere Reserve has an extremely rich avifauna, with 287 bird species recorded. Many rare and declining mammals also live in the Reserve, including elephants.

A population of 29,000 people lives in 23 villages in and on the margins of the reserve and in the town of Sérédou, on its eastern edge. The reserve is divided into two main management zones, the protection zone (60,000 ha) and the production zone. Timber extraction is permitted in the production zone, which includes a forestry concession of 30,000 ha, containing a forestry station and chipboard factory. There is also a quinine plantation and processing station, and an oil palm grove within the reserve boundaries. Although there is a management plan, it is not known to what extent it is being followed in the exploitation of the production zone, nor whether or how much illegal exploitation is taking place. Encroachment by shifting agriculturalists and by refugees is a problem, as is bushmeat hunting. Relations with neighbors are very tense, and conflicts between humans and elephants are increasing, related to the overlap between elephant migration and agricultural activities.

43 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment: STEWARD Priority Zones A recent rapid assessment (USAID 2011) indicated that the transboundary Wonegizi-Ziama area experiences the same direct and indirect threats pressures experienced throughout the Upper Guinean rainforest, including PZ 1 and PZ 2. The human-wildlife conflicts with elephants appear to be unique to the villagers living in and near the Ziama Biosphere Reserve.

With respect to potential climate change adaptation programming by the STEWARD program, this potential PZ would benefit from the same types of activities currently being implemented in the PZs, such as education and knowledge dissemination, capacity building, and training in sustainable livelihoods. Work in this potential PZ should especially target the human-elephant conflicts in and near Ziama.

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