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Continuity and Contingency in USAF Posture Planning C O R P O R A T I O N Continuity and Contingency in USAF Posture Planning Alan J. Vick, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Meagan L. Smith, Sean M. Zeigler, Daniel Tremblay, Phillip Johnson For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1471 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9565-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In 2014 and 2015, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) published two long-range planning documents: a 30-year strategy (America’s Air Force: A Call to the Future) and a 20-year Strategic Master Plan. The strategy provides a general path . to ensure our Air Force meets the needs of our great nation over the next 30 years . This long look guides the 20-year Strategic Master Plan, which identifies priorities, goals, and objectives that align our planning activities with strategic vectors to produce a resource-informed 20-year planning force.1 The Strategic Master Plan has four annexes, including the Strategic Posture Annex. To provide analytical support for the next draft of the Strategic Posture Annex, the USAF director, Strategy, Concepts, and Assessments commissioned a fiscal year 2015 RAND Project AIR FORCE study titled USAF Global Posture and Presence. The study developed a framework for long-term posture planning that accounts for both predictable and contingent drivers of USAF posture and identifies steps USAF can take to increase the robustness and agility of its posture over the 30-year planning period. The research described in this report was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf. 1 USAF, America’s Air Force: A Call to the Future, Washington, D.C.: Headquarters (HQ) USAF, 2014, p. 1. See also USAF, Strategic Master Plan Executive Summary, Washington, D.C.: HQ USAF, 2015. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xiv Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xv 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Policy Problem ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Purpose of This Document ....................................................................................................................... 3 A Simple Model of U.S. Global Posture .................................................................................................. 3 Organization ............................................................................................................................................. 5 2. Long-Term Conflict Trends ........................................................................................................ 6 An Analysis of Historical Conflict Data ................................................................................................... 7 Conflict Trends: 1946 to 2014 .............................................................................................................. 8 Terrorist Attacks on the Rise Since 2004 ........................................................................................... 13 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 18 3. Strategy Choices and Posture Implications ............................................................................... 20 Grand Strategy ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Military Strategy ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 30 4. Contingent Event Analysis ....................................................................................................... 31 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 31 Operational Vignette Development ........................................................................................................ 33 Implications for USAF Posture .............................................................................................................. 46 5. Path Dependence in USAF Posture .......................................................................................... 47 Background ............................................................................................................................................. 47 Path Dependent Processes ...................................................................................................................... 48 Path Dependence and Posture ................................................................................................................. 52 Individual Bases ................................................................................................................................. 54 Country ............................................................................................................................................... 58 Region ................................................................................................................................................ 60 Global Base Network ......................................................................................................................... 63 Path Dependence in the Post–Cold War Era ...................................................................................... 65 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 69 6. Path Aversion As a Constraint on Posture ................................................................................ 70 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 70 iv How Does Path Aversion Relate to Path Dependence? ......................................................................... 71 Mechanisms and Dimensions of Path Aversion ................................................................................. 73 The Vietnam Syndrome: A Case of Path Aversion in U.S. Foreign Policy? ......................................... 77 The Vietnam Syndrome Weakens Under President Reagan .................................................................
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