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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 26 Dr. Khrushchev’s Visit— “Perspective”

The Smithsonian-affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum recently had the tremendous honor of hosting Dr. Sergei Khrushchev as part of our Distinguished Lecture Series. Son of former Soviet Prime Minister Nikita Khrushchev, Dr. Khrushchev served as a senior fellow at the Thomas J. Watson Jr. Institute for International Studies at Brown University and was also a fellow at the Institute of Politics at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is a graduate of the Ukrainian Academy of Science and Moscow Technical University. Grants from National Atomic Testing Museum member Dr. Linda Miller and Nevada Humanities made Dr. Khrushchev’s visit to our lecture series possible.

Dr. Khrushchev’s book Nikita Khrushchev is one of the best insights available to the long history of Russian and American relations. His writings and lectures provide unique insights, especially to the era of the Cold War. Being someone who saw that history from the inside and someone who is now a citizen of the United States, Dr. Khrushchev has a very unique perspective.

“Perspective” is such an important concept to appreciate. The whole world simply does not think like we do. That is not good nor bad—simply a state of reality. Dr. Khrushchev has lived in Russia and America and sees history from both perspectives. Because of this unique insight he points out, as few others are able, how each side has misunderstood and misinterpreted the other. He also stresses that many times Russia and America have been 1

good partners. In November of 1933 President Franklin Roosevelt recognized the Soviet Union, and they became an import trading partner during our Depression years. In turn, our industrial trade goods became a vital resource for moderation in the USSR. After Hitler invaded Russia in 1941, Britain and then America became close allies with the USSR. The most vital aid America gave to Russia in the war was not arms but 150,000 Studebaker trucks. Those heavy-duty trucks made the Red Army mobile enough to defeat the German Army, which until its dying days in 1945, was always dependent primarily on horse-drawn transport. America also sent tens of thousands of cans of Spam to the USSR, which freed up significant Soviet resources for war production, as we helped feed the Russian soldiers. Since the 1990s some extremely productive associations in business and arms control have flourished between our two countries.

Dr. Khrushchev points out that the recent controversial events in the Ukraine are much more a symptom of centuries of internal politics than Russian aggression. He regrets the recent sanctions and rising tensions with Russia, and he urges the United States to put the election scandal behind us and invite Vladimir Putin to Washington to talk about the future. We have obsessed enough over spilled milk. Every day is a new day, and tomorrow is an opportunity for peace and understanding. Moving forward is more important than letting past events simmer and boil over into another Cold War. Germany, who originally coined the word “Cold War” as early as 1912 stood at the precipice of becoming the economic engine of the world in 1914, yet proceeded to ignore the commonsense in making friends with its closest neighbor and paid the price twice during the last 100 years. Today, peace and cooperation among our two countries who have had important periods of friendship must be the more important focus. Neither side will ever fully understand the other. However, each country’s unique culture provides a diversity that encourages mutual attraction. This is what I, personally, took away from the lecture. It provided me an opportunity to learn and think outside my own perspective, which I value. 2

We all heard overwhelming praise for Dr. Khrushchev’s lecture from everyone who listened to his appraisal of almost a century of history. I did hear from a very small number of people who did not attend the lecture who suggested we were “promoting communist ideology.” The minority element we have in this country who focus on negative and reactionary, xenophobic emotions is regrettable. It contrasts with what Dr. Khrushchev points out: a 20th Century filled with wars that have given us a hard-earned maturity now moves into a new century with a greater perspective and appreciation of one another. We are like children who are starting to grow up. It’s just a perspective, but an insightful one.

In the next few weeks, a professionally produced video of Dr. Khrushchev’s lecture will be available on our website, so I will not attempt to summarize his talk here. I will comment on a very brief private conversation I had with him concerning North Korea.

I asked him his views on the perplexing hermit kingdom and the growing state of tensions between North Korea and the United States. After a sigh, he raised his hands in a questioning way and rolled his eyes a bit. He said it’s basically a deadlocked situation. He sees Kim Jong Un as a leader who is convinced that if he does not make his country a nuclear power he will go the way of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. It is not about whether the analogies to Iraq and Libya are valid or not. It is about perspective. Dr. Khrushchev explains that is how North Korea under Kim’s leadership sees the world, so that is simply how it is in their eyes. We simply cannot change the way they or any other country thinks.

On the other hand, the United States will not back away from a long-held and unbending insistence that North Korea must be denuclearized. That is a point Dr. Khrushchev sees as totally unrealistic. He, and a very large majority of experts on this subject, strongly believe that not just Kim Jong Un, but the bulk of North Korean citizens, will willingly give their lives before they relinquish their nuclear weapons. Incidentally, Dr. Khrushchev, by training, is an engineer and missile guidance expert. He has a bit of a sarcastic smile on his face when he talks about the United States’ promise to never allow North Korea to become a nuclear threat because he knows that has long-since happened. His view, however, is that it is almost inconceivable that Kim Jong Un would launch a nuclear missile in anger because the whole point of having such a weapon is as a deterrent. Once you use even one of these precious weapons then you defeat the whole purpose of having a nuclear weapon. It is not that unlike the first great arms race of the early 20th century when fast sums of national budgets and treasure were expended on

3 dreadnoughts/battleships which became so expensive and provocative that their admirals hesitated to ever actually use the

Today we still have legacies of great arms races although the analogy differs somewhat. Like it or not, nuclear weapons have been an effective deterrent for more than 68 years but only because no one has yet dared (post WWII) to actually use one. Cold War veterans like Russia and America understand this illogical, but quite proven, principle of Mutually Assured Destruction. Both countries have subconsciously made each other nuclear hostages to one another for security—to deter war. Now Kim Jong Un is becoming a new and significant player, but most senior experts like Dr. Khrushchev feel his strategy is survival, not suicidal. He just hopes we do not do something that would force Kim Jong Un into a corner and inadvertently make him suicidal.

My personal—and only my personal—observation is that the time has come to concentrate on future issues of nonproliferation and stockpile stewardship to maintain a deterrence that, for better or worse, has served both America and Russia well. You cannot put the genie back in the bottle, but you can manage it through nuclear security, diplomacy and understanding. A new arms race or Cold War would be contrary to all the hard lessons we have learned.

What a pleasure for all of us to have had the opportunity to talk to someone with such a unique and mature perspective. You do not have to agree with someone’s perspective, but you can learn from it. Thank you, Dr. Khrushchev. Thank you from the National Atomic Testing Museum and our members for helping us use lessons of the past to better understand the present.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 25 Teaching Not Just the How but the Why

The greatest challenge we have at the National Atomic Testing Museum is making the history associated with the era of nuclear testing and the Cold War relevant to generations of the 21st Century. I cannot tell you how many bright and talented young people I have had the pleasure of speaking with as they tour our Museum. By-in-large, new generations take away positive educational experiences from their visits. The number of youths touring the NATM is increasing, and we are ecstatic about that!

It still amazes me, however, that many younger people, even with graduate degrees, have absolutely no concept of what the term “Cold War” means. I, in fact, recently had a very gifted film producer in the Museum doing a feature. She had advanced degrees in film studies and presented herself as extremely in-tune with the world in which she grew up as a mid-twenties something professional. However, just before the filming she asked me if I could “just in one sentence explain what the term ‘Cold War’ meant.” She said she “had heard the term, once before.” That is not uncommon, especially for our American audience. Most people thirty years of age or younger have a vague idea that the atomic age started in World War Two with the Manhattan Project, yet the 1950s through about 1990 are a total oblivion unless they grew up in that time. Some feel a reason for this is that the Internet has changed the way in which younger people process information. Spatial and non-linear reasoning are more the norm now than temporal thinking. The long- term trend of deemphasizing history, civics, and geography in our school system is also responsible. Validating this are the younger international visitors we receive at our museum who have a much greater awareness of liberal arts and as a result tend to focus on “why” and “what” as opposed to just the “how.” We are endeavoring to expand our Museum experience and teach people the why. Why—lessons of the past are a good way to understand the present. In doing so the “how” is given better relevance.

In that way history and engineering complement each other. I, in fact, just had the pleasure of giving a tour to a nuclear weapons specialist who had served in that role for the past forty-five-years. He said to me that in the real world, especially in technical areas like nuclear weapons stewardship, it is so important to not just understand how things work but why they work and what the relevant lessons are.

It may be the only positive aspect I can find on the growing tensions with North Korea. I hesitate to even use the term positive although recent developments in their nuclear arms race do have analogies to what we and the Russians were doing years ago during the Cold War. It is a teaching tool! Certainly, the ever-increasing news stories on North Korea have helped bring a whole new interest in our Museum from a more recent generation. This is especially true in our social media following. In fact, we are getting just as many people visiting us online now as tour the Museum in person. This is a phenomenally important new trend. It is a progressive trend which modern museums are striving for as well as many areas of higher learning such as libraries and universities. We push our Museum toward higher standards and continue teaching not just the how but the why. 5

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 24 Backed Against the Wall

The news coming out of North Korea is relevant in so many ways to many of the themes we deal with. Tensions have risen dramatically in recent weeks as Kim Jong Un walks an unpredictable course. Although analysts from all disciplines are now cautioning against backing North Korea against a wall. This includes warnings from China and Russia. It is for that very reason China and Russia have been hesitant to fully implement international sanctions. Previously, sanctions have not seemed to deter Kim Jong Un from his speedy development of nuclear and ballistic missiles. Kim has, in fact, concentrated just as much energy into improving the North Korean economy, and he has made dramatic progress despite the sanctions.

Most recently, the United States has pushed even harder to isolate and more importantly strangle North Korea’s access to foreign currency. Now, even China and Russia seem to be closing loop-holes available to Kim. All this, however, is still not deterring North Korea’s nuclear program, but it may finally be hurting Kim’s efforts to master the economy which is showing signs of faltering. It has to be asked—will this push Kim Jong Un in some new unpredictable direction?

Indications are very preliminary, yet they suggest Kim Jong Un is finally feeling the pressure. Effects of a summer drought in North Korea’s small but critical grain region may also just now be pressuring food supplies that for the first time in years have been adequate. This is significant because since assuming power, Kim Jong Un, has effectively ended starvation in his country. Now things may be tipping backward. Ri Jong Ho, a former high-level North Korean economic official who defected in 2014, believes the most recent UN sanctions could be hitting hard. He explains that if this is true, the economy and most importantly the food supply can reach a critical point within just twelve months. 6

In the weeks of October, rhetoric from North Korea intensified and sounded more desperate than its usual bellicose nationalism. Perhaps Kim Jong Un is starting to sweat it out? Recent reshuffling of the politburo and an elevation of his sister, Kim Yo Jong, to even greater authority may be a sign that he is preparing for the worst. Apparently, he lives in fear of being targeted by a coalition strike team. There is some evidence that the United States and South Korea may be preparing just such an operation. Kim has recently consulted with ten former KGB experts on how to increase his personal protection. This may be why Kim now uses doubles who travel as widely as he does. That is a long-accepted practice that both Churchill and Hitler used to advantage in World War II. During one of the most recently publicized missile launches, Kim posed as he always does for photos. However, he chose to make that launch at night perhaps to protect himself from surveillance.

Meanwhile, rhetoric from the White House has been more somber although just as disturbing with phrases like “Calm before the storm,” and “Sorry, but only one thing will work!” Even the cautious Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has recently used the phrase “Diplomacy will continue until the first bombs drop.” Defense Secretary James Mattis has also publicly stated the armed forces must be ready with military options. The military is of course always ready with options. That is their job. Rarely though does a Secretary of Defense make a point of publicizing it.

Things may be starting to happen. United States and South Korean forces have engaged during October in more naval maneuvers involving 40 warships. This, after repeated warnings from China that the already two recently-completed yearly military exercises have inflamed the situation with North Korea to a dangerous level. A researcher at The Institute for American Studies at the North Korean Foreign Ministry has warned that the recent naval exercises will lead to a response of some kind from Kim Jong Un. The nuclear-powered super carriers USS Ronald Reagan, USS Nimitz, USS Theodore Roosevelt and the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine USS Michigan are now in the region. The Michigan carries 154 UGM-109 conventional Tomahawk cruise missiles and can also deploy Navy Seals. In fact, on a recent port call to the South Korean city of Busan the Michigan was photographed with two silos attached to its rear upper deck which are commonly used for SEAL operations. This is rather unusual because routinely those silo attachments are not carried because they cause so much drag to the ship’s performance. 7

Meanwhile, the Air Force has announced it has boosted its offensive munitions stockpile at Guam’s Anderson Air Force base by ten percent. Additional F-35s have arrived at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. In the last week of October at least one nuclear-capable B- 2 stealth bomber left its home field in Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri for the Pacific on what was said to be a “familiarization flight.” In South Korea, the New York Times reported practice evacuations of non-combatant American personnel. Called “Courageous Channel,” it only served as an exercise, however, such evacuations would likely be the first move made by the U.S. if war came to Asia. Meanwhile, North Korea reports mass evacuation and black out drills throughout their country “in preparation for war.” No evidence, however, has been seen of this so far in Pyongyang. Japanese press in The Asahi Shimbun reported that North Korean border guards, who typically do not carry live ammunition in order to prevent an accidental incident, have now been issued live rounds.

We field questions on a daily basis at the National Atomic Testing Museum regarding our state of readiness if North Korea would go so far as to launch a missile at America or its territories. Joshua Pollack, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and the editor of the Nonproliferation Review, states that defending from an ICBM is no easy task. He noted in a recent article for Defense One that “Ballistic-missile defense, or BMD, is a stunningly ambitious and complex undertaking, unforgiving of the smallest problems.”

Pollack details further:

“It’s composed of a network of radars, space-based sensors, battle-management systems, and ‘hit-to- kill’ interceptor missiles designed to smash an attacking warhead through the sheer force of the collision. A total of 36 interceptors are currently deployed—four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, and 32 at Fort Greely in Alaska. Another eight are to be installed by the end of the year in silos at Fort Greely. Called the Ground-based Midcourse Defense, or GMD, the system is operated by U.S. Northern Command, which is charged with the defense of American homeland.” 8

A three-tiered anti-ballistic missile system is based in and around South Korea and is designed to protect the local region. The third component of this system arrived just this year—when the long awaited and highly controversial THAAD missile system deployed in South Korea. Known as the Lockheed Martin Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-ballistic missile system, it supplements existing SAM or surface to air and Patriot PAC-3 missile systems already in place, bringing a radical new three-tiered defense posture. Unfortunately, none of these systems can adequately contend with an overwhelming number of simultaneous missile launches nor do they protect completely against the low trajectory of submarine launched missiles which North Korea is now also testing.

The THAAD missile deployment is extremely controversial. Both China and Russia are concerned about the advanced radar system used by the THAAD’s radar-controlled firing system. The system can reach into neighboring Chinese and Russian territory, and is thus considered, from their perspective, to be an “invasion of national security.” The THAAD system could also, with modification, be adapted to host offensive ballistic missiles yet absolutely no plan for this has ever been suggested by the United States.

Although the THAAD system has been deployed for months, there have not been any trained personnel in place to service it. Only in the first week of November has a unit from Fort Bliss, Texas arrived in South Korea to bring the missile system fully online.

Raymond Lockey, former special advisor on energy and security to Office of President detailed some important points about this regional missile defense:

“South Korea’s only benefit from the THAAD system, versus the Aegis and Patriot defensive missile systems it can deploy, is that it maintains its close military alliance intact with the United States. Aside from that, THAAD would not be of material use against a North Korean ballistic missile attack using nuclear-tipped short or intermediate range missiles in the DPRK’s arsenal. Those ballistic missiles do not involve, as an ICBM does, launching the payload into a space orbit and reentering the atmosphere down range to strike a target thousands of miles away. So on that basis, THAAD really does not provide South Korean with critical defense against North Korean ballistic missiles; it protects the US mainland. However, on that basis, it is a detriment to South Korean security, and obviously also its trading relationship with its largest export market, being China.” 9

This may indeed be the calm before the storm. On a recent trip to North Korea New York Times op-ed columnist Nicholas Krist noted a decided change from what he had seen during previous trips:

“North Korea is always a bizarre place and there’s always a certain amount of over-the-top rhetoric. But this time the country has really galvanized for war, Kristof said Thursday on ‘CBS This Morning.’ There's constant talk about missile attacks on the U.S. There are billboards around the country showing missiles destroying the U.S. Capitol, destroying the U.S. flag. There is discussion about how a nuclear war with the U.S. is inevitable, and maybe most striking, about how North Korea will defeat the U.S. in this nuclear war. And it’s not only survivable but actually winnable.”

With all the pressure building up on North Korea it seems as they are still getting help. This is evident in the area of Computer Numerical Control or CNC machines. These are big grey boxy machines pre- programed to produce intricate parts for all sorts of industrial products ranging from cell phones to automobiles. They are most vital, however, in the production of nuclear munitions and ballistic missile components. Nuclear weapons experts say CNC machines have helped Kim Jong Un accelerate missile and nuclear testing despite international sanctions. Jeffrey Lewis, head of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of Strategic Studies at Monterey, California states that, “North Korea’s centrifuges and new missiles all depend on components made with CNC machine tools.” Kim Heung Kwang served as a computer science professor in North Korea prior to his defection in 2013. He estimates, based on interviews with more recent defecting factory workers that North Korea has about 15,000 CNC machines. This is an ample supply and most of these machines are made in China. A United Nations panel monitoring sanctions on North Korea reported that Tengzhou Keyongda CNC Machine Tools Co of China had been a supplier of Pyongyang’s new CNC machines. Lee Choon Geun, a senior fellow at the Science and Technology Policy Institute in South Korea states that despite sanctions, “CNC machines are commonplace across North Korean manufacturing and are brought in through China and Russia.”

So yes, the sanctions on such products as textiles and seafood, for example, are now being enforced by China and Russia. Yet the oil still flows and so it seems critical technical assistance. Sanctions only create significant hardships on the North Korean market place and average citizens. They are also a bigger part of a dangerous process that may destabilize the North Korean economy. Yet, the arms build-up goes on while Kim Jong Un still enjoys support from his citizens and total devotion from the military.

Everyone admits something has to be done to contend with an unpredictable nuclear- armed regime like North Korea, but what? The North Korean leadership nor its people will give up their nuclear weapons under any circumstance—despite the hardships. As Vladimir Putin states, “they will eat grass first.” Unfortunately, many of the actions taken to date have not really hindered North Korea’s weapons-making capacity. Fudan University Professor of international studies Shen Dingli agrees. He has stated to The New Yorker staff writer John Cassidy that even if China cut all aid to North Korea, Kim 10

Jong Un would not give up his nuclear program. John Cassidy’s recent New Yorker article examined just how much China can influence North Korea.

Despite [Chinese President] Xi’s elevation by the Party Congress, the Trump Administration may also be overestimating the amount of freedom he has to maneuver on this issue. China and North Korea, recent tensions aside, have had a mutual-defense pact since 1961, which commits each country to support the other in the event of an attack by a third party—such as a preëmptive strike by the United States. Moreover, China’s military has long feared that any U.S. attack on North Korea would be a prelude to a unification of the country, with U.S. troops and missiles moving up to the Chinese border. If Xi were seen to countenance any approach that might lead in that direction, he could encounter significant opposition within the Party and the military. In view of all this, it seems unlikely that Xi will go much beyond his current stance: supporting economic sanctions and calling on the United States to enter direct talks with North Korea on the basis of Pyonyang agreeing to freeze its missile program and Washington agreeing to halt its military exercises in South Korea. The Trump Administration has refused to negotiate unless Kim first expresses willingness to roll back his nuclear program. Of course, he has said he will never do that. Having watched what happened to Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi after he gave up his nukes, the Chinese may think this is a logical stance on Kim’s part.

Experts warn if Kim Jong Un gets to the point that he feels his back is against a wall, he may do anything. The fact is, no one knows what he may do. On October 17 North Korea went so far as to warn of nuclear war on the floor of the United Nations—the same stage which the U.S. president recently used to state he would “destroy North Korea.” In recent days North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong Ho stated, “the United States should take literally his government’s threat to test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean.” This would be known as “Juche Bird.”

Jeffery Lewis of the East Asia Nonproliferation Programme coined this term for North Korea’s self-reliance slogan and as an analogy to Frigate Bird. (Five months before the Cuban missile Crisis in May of 1962, the United States launched their first submarine- launched missile with a live nuclear warhead from the USS Ethan Allen in a successful test detonation code-named “Frigate Bird.”)

The current thinking is that Kim Jong Un feels he must soon prove he can launch a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile. The problem is the only way to do that is by a live-test demonstration. The reasoning goes that Kim feels the United States is skeptical that he can do such a test. The historical analogy goes back to a similar skepticism by President Lyndon Johnson to the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964 and their claim that they had miniaturized a device for missile deployment. The President slighted their claim by stating, “Many years and great efforts separate the testing of a first nuclear device from having a stockpile of reliable weapons with effective delivery systems.” In reaction to this, China simply changed their arranged

11 plans for a following underground test and put their nuclear device on a missile and launched it. This proved that they could pose a threat with a nuclear armed missile.

The thinking in the fall of 2017 goes further. It follows that such a live-fire test would be the last straw for the current American administration and would result in a retaliatory unilateral strike against North Korea.

Yet the rhetoric alone is enough to cause great concern. Analogies of verbal exchanges like these remind many of the summer of 1914 and the prelude to the First World War. This is the thinking of one of the best-read commentators on such analogies. Graham Allison is a former director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans. He is a New York Times contributor and author of a new book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” Allison teaches by using parallels of history, and he sees unsettling similarities with that of 1914 and today’s world. Retired and active generals alike are also starting to agree. North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently warned that a war on the Korean Peninsula could be disastrous. Careful study suggests that action against North Korea, small or large, will mean war. Now with President Donald Trump heading for a tour of Asian states with intense domestic political problems on his mind, world leaders urge a calming of the rhetoric. Many fear a growing perfect storm. Hopefully, lessons of the past will prevent a flashpoint and demonstrate that understanding the “why” of world events is vitally important.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 23 The Most Dangerous Woman in the World

Kim Yo Jong has been described by many Intelligence officials as possibly the “most dangerous woman in the world.” She is a character right out of a James Bond movie. Sister to Kim Jong Un, the two are not just family, but are said to be inseparable—Kim Yo Jong being the North Korean dictator’s closest confidant. Both were born to the same mother, Ko Yong Hui.

Details about the 30-year-old Kim Yo Jong are still sketchy. Analysts think she previously worked with a number of Japanese abductees kidnapped by North Korean special forces who were seeking information for future infiltration into Japanese society. North Korea has a long history of abductions of Japanese and South Korean citizens, and Kim Yo Jong seems to have been an active player in that game. Granted a position on the “National Defense Commission,” Kim Yo Jong has worked to professionalize the more than half- million women soldiers in the North Korean army. Intelligence suggest she may be married to Choe Song, the son of a powerful party secretary, Choe Ryong Hae. (Other accounts have Kim Yo Jong married to a member of “Bureau 39” which is a secretive party organization that maintains a slush fund of foreign currency for key North Korean government officials. Bureau 39 brings in between $500 million to $1 billion through illegal activities involving counterfeiting U.S. $100 bills, synthesizing methamphetamines as well as engaging in international insurance fraud.)

Most recently, she has served as Vice Director of the “Propaganda and Agitation Department,” organizing state events and in particular the itinerary and public appearances of her brother. She is in effect Kim Kong Un’s personal chief of staff. Kim Yo Jong takes her brother’s image to new heights in promoting her family dynasty’s iconic heritage. It is not unreasonable to speculate that the constant emphasis on portraying Kim Jong Un's likeness to that of his grandfather, Kim Il Song, is her inspiration. Both South 13

Korean and Western Intelligence are increasingly struck by the close association of Kim Jong Un with his sister’s talents. It is all in the family. Kim Yo Jong sees to it that her brother has a very nationalistic profile, and she has undoubtedly been the one behind all his highly visible and unique public appearances.

She now serves as an alternate member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party, replacing Kim Jong Un’s aunt, Kim Kyong Hui. (Kim Kyong Hui is Kim Il Song’s daughter and Kim Jong Il’s sister.) After executing Kim Kyong Hui’s husband with a howitzer, Kim Jong Un apparently made up with his aunt by making her Secretary of the Workers Party, but now she has been replaced by his sister and great confidant who may be being groomed for even greater responsibility. Kim Yo Jong will likely be his self-appointed successor and has reportedly already stepped in for Kim as head of State when past illnesses forced his absence.

(Reuters reports the recent promotion of Kim Yo Jong to the Workers Party’s Politburo involved other promotions and reshufflings including Kim Jong Sik and Ri Pyong Chol who are two key figures in the all-important ballistic missile program. Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, who has recently been so visible and outspoken at the United Nations was also elevated to a full vote-holding position on the Politburo.)

Kim Yo Jong has been blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury for “severe human rights abuses.” Some have even suggested she is the real power in North Korea; however, that may be a stretch. Undoubtedly Kim Yo Jong provides a “whisper in the ear” and has great influence over her brother as she carefully crafts his public persona. The few people who have been close to the Kim family who have talked to Western officials, have all commented that the sister and brother team have always been extremely devoted to one another since childhood. Reportedly, Kim Jong Un would follow Kim Yo Jong around the house as a small child, pulling her diaper up when it slipped, and as the years went by they never failed each other. Both remained inseparable and went to school together in Switzerland. It would be hard to create a fictional story with such a puzzling character as Kim Yo Jong—or her brother. However, she is real and clearly a key person to watch. Intelligence officials speculate she may be much more unpredictable and dangerous than Kim Jong Un.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 22 Duck and Cover The History of U.S. Civil Defense

“Van Gogh Never Saw Bikini Atoll”, Oil on canvas, by Sagittarius gallery.

Our Museum now receives calls on a weekly basis from the public and press concerned about how we would defend ourselves from a nuclear attack from North Korea. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford, stated on September 27 that “North Korea will have nuclear weapons capable of hitting the U.S. in a very short time.” We pray, of course, Kim Jong Un nor anyone will ever go so far as to start a nuclear exchange because there are no comprehensive civil defense measures for it. That is not to say we do not have defensive means, but the age of the bomb shelter is long over. Yet, the story of our own nuclear civil defense program from years ago is worth recalling. Unfortunately, that program always lacked consistent funding, finally being deemed futile as the nuclear stockpiles grew to such tremendous size and strength. Nevertheless, the civil defense story is fascinating. It is certainly our most popular museum exhibit among international visitors, and this subject matter is intended to be expanded upon in our new Interpretive Master Plan. 15

Civil Defense really began during the First World War in Britain in reaction to Zeppelin raids on London and other English cities that were being subjected to aerial bombings. (Prior to the war, the threat of German Zeppelins had created just as much apprehension as Kim Jong Un’s missiles do today.) Once America became concerned about the European war, the focus centered on “anti-saboteur vigilance,” because eastern seaports were then handling large quantities of munition shipments. To address that, President Woodrow Wilson formed the Council of National Defense in August of 1916. The term was then “Civilian Defense” and when we entered the war a year later the vast Atlantic Ocean still formed an effective defensive shield.

The Council of National Defense disbanded by 1921 after the finalization of the Treaty of Versailles, which had ended World War I. However, by 1940 President Roosevelt reactivated it and created the Division of State and Local Cooperation to assist. By May of 1941 little doubt existed that America would soon be involved in the by-then almost 2-year- old Second World War, so the president went further with an executive order that created the Office of Civilian Defense. The OCD primarily served to boost morale and confidence and was originally headed by popular New York Mayor Fiorello La Guardia. After Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the primary fear centered around air raids. The OCD spearheaded blackout and air raid procedures and drills. Despite some minor incidents of off-shore artillery bombardments from German and Japanese submarines and random attacks by Japanese Fugo Balloon Bombs, the United States mainland went through a second world war still largely protected by is geographic isolation.

This, of course, was not the case with the eastern and southern seaboard sea lanes, which saw more than 400 merchant ships sunk by German U-boats. The oceans were becoming less of a barrier. Nuclear weapons and long-range bombers also emerged out of World War II, although for a period the U.S. had an exclusive monopoly on both. That changed by 1949 when the Soviet Union not only tested its first atomic bomb but had developed a copy of the American B-29 bomber. The Cold War was on!

At the end of World War II the OCD civilian defense “structure” remained in place (although OCD technically disbanded in 1945). Yet its core structure became the foundation of “Civil Defense” during the Cold War. In 1947, the National Security Act created, among many other organizations, the National Security Resources Board. That would serve as an eight-member board that would oversee mobilization if a war situation arose. By 1953, it evolved into the independent government Office of Defense Mobilization (ODM). In December of 1950, President Truman formed the more comprehensive Federal Civil Defense Administration, or FCDA, that basically mirrored the World War II-era OCD. By 1958, it became the Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization when FCDA merged with ODM. That would be a very distant relative to what the Federal Emergency Management Association became, although FEMA today has a vastly different structure and mission. 16

World War II taught us the lesson that defense is about far more than just air raid procedures. Leading up to our entry into the war, President Roosevelt had great logistical challenges and resistance to mobilization. These Cold War-era organizations were formed in part to help speed up mobilization if a new war came quickly. They also allocated resources. People tend to forget that even in the Korean War consumer and price controls existed. As an example, colored television production had to be controlled because the scientists and engineers required for their development were needed for defense projects. During the Korean War my mother owned a department store, and she had as many challenges ordering suitible varieties of inventory as she did during the rationing days of World War II.

We think of civil defense more in terms of bomb shelters, but the funding for that level of preparedness often lacked consistent support from Congress, and interest came in irregular waves. There was, however, ample funding for literature and films promoting civil defense. In 1950, the National Security Resources Board created a document called “Blue Book” that, for the next 40 years, outlined civil defense structure. Congress, however, never met the budget requirements for civil defense agencies.

The Federal Civil Defense Administration sponsored education efforts, such as “Duck and Cover.” This concept tried to warn people of the initial blinding flash of a surprise nuclear detonation and the need to seek immediate cover in any way available. It used a cartoon figure, Bert the Turtle, who defused anxiety in films and pamphlets to teach children and adults alike that nuclear war could be dealt with. Many booklets detailing what to do during a nuclear attack circulated, such as “Survival Under Atomic Attack.” Radio, still being much more common than television in the 1950s, often hosted public service announcements on civil defense.

Drills took place at times and evacuation plans drafted. In 1955, the City of Portland, Ore., actually evacuated its city center in 19 minutes flat in a drill called “Operation Greenlight.” Then, the government considered it may be more important for people to shelter in place and try to rebuild the cities after an attack. Shelters were then dubbed “fallout shelters” because the point of 17 nuclear disaster preparation became offering protection from the radiation effects that would occur after the attack had ended. President Kennedy initiated a plan of “fallout” shelters that even included upper floors on skyscrapers where people could ride out the three to five days thought necessary to evade the radioactive residue left from a nuclear attack. No direction, however, existed as to where people would go if a nuclear bomb destroyed the fallout shelters. New York City invested millions of dollars in identification tags for school children in the horrible event bodies needed to be identified or lost children located after an attack. Other cities followed. President Reagan had a unique nuclear plan. He considered a $10 billion program to create “rural host areas” where up to 80 percent of the population could go in the wake of a nuclear attack.

Of course, early warning became key to any plan. In 1951, President Truman established the Control Electromagnetic Radiation Plan (also called Key Station System) where only key radio stations (called Basic Key Stations) would broadcast an alert. Radio and television stations throughout the country would have access to and monitor these key stations. If an alert came, people could be directed to those few designated key frequencies at 640 and 1240 kHz. The idea behind this convoluted system was that enemy bombers would have more difficulty homing in on radio stations if only a few stations were broadcasting. The Key Stations not only had a low power signal but would also shut off and on for periods of five seconds to further aggravate attempts by enemy aircraft to get a directional signal. One has to wonder how effective such a low-profile warning alert system would have been if a nuclear attack came.

Once the age of ICBMs came in, bombers were almost obsolete, and this system ceased with the establishment in 1963 of the Emergency Broadcasting System or EBS. Under that system, all radio and television stations would broadcast the same civil defense alert. In some cities air raid sirens were installed, although sirens were already in place in most areas of the country where the need existed for severe weather warnings. The sirens served both purposes; however, the Emergency Broadcasting System was not used for cases of natural disasters until 1976. The Emergency Alert System replaced the EBS in 1997.

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In theory, with advanced warning, people could benefit from hardened shelters to protect themselves from the actual blast of a nuclear attack. At the Nevada Test Site, a great deal of testing occurred of all types of wooden and concrete structures. The engineers learned from blowing-up structures with actual nuclear tests that some relatively simple modifications to building codes could significantly strengthen even wooden frame houses from atomic blasts. Archival films of these tests are now famous and form a favorite exhibit at the National Atomic Testing Museum. Of course, that was the day when nuclear bombs were measured in the kilotons, such as those used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. By the 1960s and on, nuclear stockpiles fielded weapons measured in the megatons. Russia had mass produced devices up to 20 megatons, and we had bombs in the arsenal as big as 9 megatons. In the wake of the growing nuclear arsenals with ever increasing yields, interest in bomb shelters waned. Some cases can even be found of protests organized against civil defense, and some of these as early as 1955.

In the post-Cold War and post-9/11 world, the focus is on terrorism and the increasing severity of natural disasters. The Federal Emergency Management Association, or FEMA, is what we look to today. Nuclear war is not a focus of FEMA. Although, I actually think all the recent concern over a nuclear attack by North Korea is very interesting from a historical perspective, albeit a highly disturbing one.

When I was a youth, my father served as a volunteer civil defense warden of our small town in Central Illinois. He had a pistol locked away that had been issued through some sort of civil defense fund. It actually served two purposes, because he was also a volunteer guard for the local bank, where he also had the full-time paid job of bank president. It all tied together because if a nuclear war came, the basement of the bank would become the “fallout shelter” for the local population. The basement held stores of government-issued food and water that, at that time, had not been upgraded in some time. The basement would have held about 50 of the local population of 5,000 people. As a very small boy (circa 1965) I found that quite a peculiar discrepancy. I recall then that my father would express concern about it when discussing 19

the subject, because in 1965 there was still some thought that somehow a nuclear war could be survived. I actually found it very exciting that my father had this amazing position of civil defense warden; however, he clearly had no idea what his role would be if a nuclear air raid actually came and, apparently, no one had ever thought about it enough to tell him. It was simply a title that fulfilled an underfunded civil defense program, and it never really was rescinded as much as it was forgotten with the passing of time.

By 1982, My father’s bank had constructed a new building and vacated the old combination bank/civil defense shelter. I recall asking him at the time if anyone would move the old food stuffs. His only comment was “what is the point?” Well, the point is that by that time no one really thought you could survive a nuclear war. My father had by no means lost his patriotism. He was as patriotic as they came, having served through some of the toughest battles of World War II. Yet, even the most loyal citizen realized by then commonly-accepted policy of MAD or Mutually Assured Destruction. Nuclear war ceased to be practical because it came to equate with the end of civilization. MAD did form an effective deterrent and, for better or worse, has been a defense policy that has lasted to this day. Another way of understanding this strange paradox is to look at the phrase former EG&G president Barney O’Keefe used to title his highly praised book on the Cold War era of nuclear testing. He paraphrased it as a weapon that holds all sides as “nuclear hostages.”

However, what do we do now—now that we have increasing nuclear proliferation in other countries that do not necessarily play by the Cold War/old-school rules? India and Pakistan each have about 100 nuclear weapons aimed at each other, and the consensus is that they will not hesitate to use them if those highly ideologically motivated foes feel significantly threatened by one another. Nor, if their rhetoric can be believed, does a country like North Korea appear to be deterred from the possible use of nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un apparently sees them as legitimizing his position in the world. And although he has clearly proved himself a very able leader overseeing amazing economic

20 advancements during times of sanctions, we really do not know how rational he is when it comes to his obvious passion for developing nuclear weapons and missiles. Another defining moment in my memory of the Cold War/civil defense era concerned the November 20, 1983, ABC network airing of the film “The Day After.” The program reached 100 million people in 39 million households. I saw that film with my family and can to this day recall the sobering reality that program left on myself and my local community. It did not matter if you came from a very conservative environment like I did. The film almost universally impressed on people the horrors of a nuclear war, and I recall after that I never heard anyone in my town even suggest there would be a way to prepare for such a war.

So, what is the bottom line with North Korea and civil defense? There are simply so many variables and uncertainties as to what Kim Jong Un will do or even can do that there is almost no way to plan. However, the broader aspects of defense such as missile defense systems are a much more productive focus than a bomb shelter mentality. Not that there is not an attractive nostalgia to that age, but it is certainly not a way to solve this modern problem.

That is actually a good way to understand the civil defense of past years. Little funding went into it because the focus became directed to bigger issues, such as regular defense spending. Indeed, the day may come when people realize the best nuclear civil defense is to prevent the proliferation of such weapons in the first place. That is exactly where the modern-day global security specialists now focus.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 21 What Would the Second Korean War Look Like?

When North Korea invaded South Korea on June 25, 1950, it involved less than 135,000 troops from the North fighting around 98,000 men of the South. If this scenario played out today, the North Korean Army (KPA) could field a million soldiers with a half million personnel in immediate reserve, and another five million behind them facing 28,500 American soldiers and about 630,000 South Korean (ROK) forces.

In 1950, North Korean forces did not attempt to destroy Seoul. They wanted to push into the south and occupy it as quickly as possible. It soon became a rout for the South Koreans. Huge numbers of refugees flooded southward as tragedy prevailed. In a desperate attempt to destroy the Hangang Bridge across the Han River, ROK forces detonated it with 4,000 civilians still crossing.

No military analyst can guess at exactly what a new Korean war would look like. It is assumed that there would again be a tremendous amount of people attempting to flee Seoul and head south no matter how events transpired. If the United States or Japan had any indication of an impending conflict, they would move to evacuate their own nationals in advance. Japan has about 14,000 citizens working or living in South Korea and they would likely be the first to leave. Our small contingent of soldiers of the Eighth United States Field Army, or EUSA, may be repositioned from their base near Seoul, but their more than 160,000 family members and civilian support personnel would be airlifted out if time allowed. No one knows what would happen with the 1 million Chinese or the 30,000 Russians in South Korea.

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It is a given in almost all scenarios that Seoul would come under a massive artillery bombardment and possibly chemical or nuclear attack. If it remained a conventional exchange, the KPA could fire a half million artillery rounds per hour on Seoul. The refugees would dwarf that of 1950. At least 25 million civilians would be immediately impacted.

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In 1950, the North Koreans invaded through the west side of the peninsula near Seoul because the geography and road structure made it a logical route to easily push south. That would remain the case today because the rest of the border between South and North Korea involves difficult terrain. I had the good fortune to interview many Korean War veterans when I participated in a fellowship at the United States Air Force Museum many years ago while doing graduate work at Purdue University. The one fact that all those amazing and brave men repeated in the interviews centered on the fact that the North Korean forces fought almost fanatically, utilizing the difficult terrain, and often massed in great human waves. It is interesting such an impression is so prevalent because initially North Korea did not have more than 75,000 front line and 60,000 reserve soldiers. Today almost all of North Korea’s million-man army is stationed right on the DMZ, so there would likely be no hint of mobilization if an attack came.

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By August of 1950, the North Korean forces had rapidly moved into the south. American troops in Japan were being prepared to try to land on the southern tip of the peninsula to form a defensive perimeter. If war came again, U.S. forces would have to once more quickly scramble to get reinforcements onto the peninsula before North Korea could make substantial gains. Former U.S. Army commanders from the Korean theater all worry about how the U.S. will move their reserves on the roads in a future war, which would assuredly be clogged with refugees. Although, that initial U.S. troop response would be small. Substantial U.S. ground forces would take many months to organize and move into the theater.

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In 1950, the U.S. had superior air power available, and it greatly helped in the early stages of the war when North Korea had made such dramatic gains. This would be the case in a new war. Both the American, South Korean and Japanese air forces are vastly superior to those of the DPRK. However, as we have learned during the last 20 years in the Middle East and as we have learned in every war in the 20th Century, air power alone has never won a war. It inevitably takes boots on the ground.

By the end of the Korean War we were able to utilize almost 2 million U.S. troops and support personnel, as well as other United Nations troops to bring the war to a stalemate. Fielding such numbers again could take at least 24 months and a substantial commitment from the American public. If Korea decided to fight it out in a conventional ground war, America would likely have to return to a draft and commit to a long, expensive conflict. Our way of life and economy would be dramatically impacted. Only a handful of people living in this country today, who also lived through the rationing of World War II and the consumer and price controls of the Korean War, understand the scarifies waging such a conflict would mean. Another point to remember is that in the last Korean War we ended up fighting more than a million Chinese troops, who came to North Korea’s defense. We also inflicted with U.N. forces more than a million Sino casualties. In fact, for much of the world, the conflict is not called the Korean War, it is known as the Sino-American War.

By 1953, American support for the war in Korea waned and talk centered on using nuclear weapons. In President Eisenhower’s memoirs, he said he came into office in 1953 prepared to use nuclear weapons in Korea. It is assumed by most scholars that behind-the-scenes threats of that nature lead China and North Korea (with Russian advisors) to agree to an armistice. That is substantiated by a 1984 release of 2,000 pages of State Department documents, which confirm serious discussions about using nuclear weapons to settle the Korean conflict. Those same considerations would be addressed again in the White House if war came to the Korean Peninsula. The obvious difference now is that it is not just Russia and China that can check America with nuclear arsenals but North Korea itself. (China did not, however, become a nuclear power until 1964.) 26

There has been endless debate among scholars as to just how willing the former Soviet Union, Mao’s China, and America would have been in using nuclear weapons during the Cold War. The vast size of the stockpiles actually created a deterrence to war. However, what do we do now—now that we have increasing nuclear proliferation to other countries. Will we use nuclear weapons to force nonproliferation or denuclearization of a country like North Korea?

Frequently we hear talk from U.S. military and government officials about the ease in which we could “destroy North Korea.” When you hear that, it is a politically correct way to threaten the use of nuclear weapons. If North Korea launched a nuclear weapon first, then it would almost be a given that they could expect an overwhelming response. But what if we used one first? We could easily launch small low- yield nuclear weapons to cheaply take out a large part of their offensive force. We may even get lucky and get all their nuclear and chemical weapons on the first try. We might even force an almost effortless regime change and a surrender by the DPRK. But what kind of world will it be once a nuclear weapon is used in a modern 21st Century war? And who will use the next one?

Yet, what we all fear is an initial triggering event or flash point. Five months before the Cuban missile Crisis in May of 1962, the United States launched their first submarine- launched missile with a nuclear warhead from the USS Ethan Allen in a successful test detonation code-named “Frigate Bird.” Rarely have the great powers ever tested such delivery systems in conjunction with a nuclear test. Of course, after the October 10, 1963 enforcement of the Limited Test Ban Treaty, America and the Soviet Union were confined to only underground testing and could not conduct such a test. China, however, tested nuclear launched warheads after that date.

This was largely in response to President Lyndon Johnson’s public skepticism of the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964. He stated, “Many years and great efforts separate the testing of a first nuclear device from having a stockpile of reliable weapons with effective delivery systems.” In reaction to this, China changed their arranged plans for a following underground test and put their nuclear device on a missile and launched it to prove that they could deliver a nuclear warhead.

History can repeat itself, and this may be where we stand with the next demonstration from North Korea. If they chose to do a live-fire test or demonstration of a nuclear weapon over the Pacific Ocean it may receive the nick-name “Juche Bird.” Jeffery Lewis of the East Asia Nonproliferation Programme coined this term as an analogy to Frigate Bird and North Korea's independent nature and the “perceived” insults American rhetoric has inflicted on Kim Jong Un's regime. Juche Bird could be a potential flash point.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 27

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 20 Unseen Strategy?

Is there an unseen strategy behind the North Korea drama? This article will look at a lot of pieces that make up a very confusing puzzle. We will see that the only point any “expert” agrees on is that it does represents a complex and dangerous game involving nuclear proliferation.

On September 3, North Korea conducted its sixth and latest underground nuclear detonation at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. The test is now confirmed by the US- Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University to have had a yield of a quarter of a megaton. That is almost 17 times the power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, and many times larger than their fifth test, which took place a year ago. Current satellite imagery shows renewed activity at the Punggye-ri site indicating preparations for possible future nuclear tests. On September 14, North Korea tested yet another long-range ballistic missile, flying it directly over Japan for the longest distance yet of 2,300 miles. Some had anticipated this missile to contain a live nuclear warhead culminating in an atmospheric test far out over the Pacific. Yet, the flight itself, although only involving a Hwasong-12 intermediate- range ballistic missile or IRBM, did prove an impressive demonstration of continued research toward a more advanced intercontinental ballistic missile or ICBM.

Kim Jong Un is making rapid and dramatic progress on the promise he made in January to develop a nuclear-tipped ICBM by year’s end. It is clearly a dangerous situation. North Korea’s daily proclamations that it will “reduce the United States to ashes” does not help ease tensions. Nor does our own rhetoric. Bombast aside, the facts are frightening enough. The prospect that their weapons are producing higher yields and may be on the verge of a true thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb technology is extremely disturbing. A day before the recent nuclear test, North Korea published a photo of Kim inspecting what is believed to be a two-stage thermonuclear device capable of fitting into the nosecone of a missile.

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All those recent developments closely parallel the American and Soviet efforts to field IRBMs and ICBMs in the 1950s and early 60s. And it took a lot of nuclear testing in those decades to learn how to miniaturize the bombs to be adapted for those missiles. That is why North Korea continues to test. It is thus a long process to develop and mate both the bombs and delivery systems. Another interesting analogy is that in our own early missiles, accuracy was measured not in feet, but miles. That is the attraction of large-yield thermonuclear warheads. The laws of physics limit fission or atomic bombs to about a megaton; however, fusion or thermonuclear devices have no limit. The Soviets fielded weapons as large as 20 megatons, and we had bombs in the stockpile up to nine megatons. Such large devices, in theory, assured the destruction of a key target even if the missile did not hit it directly. In more recent times such larger devices have been phased out by America and Russia because the technology and thus accuracy of modern delivery systems is much higher. David Wright, a missile expert with the Union of Concerned Scientists confirms that North Korea is a long way away from the accuracy of modern U.S. missiles, which have now benefited from a half century of development. So, they do need high-yield devices to form a deterrent. That, in fact, is exactly what Kim Jong Un desires. He wants to make his country a legitimate nuclear threat to the American mainland to stand on what he feels are equal terms as a nuclear power-player. Yet, it is not just about Kim Jong Un. North Korean citizens take sincere pride in these nuclear achievements. True, they are highly conditioned by state-sponsored propaganda from childhood; however, nuclear weapons are now a real part of their national identity. It is no exaggeration when Russian President Vladimir Putin states that they will of their own free will “eat grass before giving up their nuclear weapons.”

On September 9, on the county’s 69th foundation anniversary, Kim Jong Un with his nationally idolized wife—first lady, Ri Sol Ju—jointly honored their top nuclear scientists and engineers with a widely-publicized arts performance and banquet. I encourage our readers to visit this YouTube link showing footage from that gala: https://youtu.be/HLjMxp0hFjc. The images are disturbingly surreal. It would be hard to create a fictional movie as frighteningly bizarre as the nuclear idolatry exhibited at that pageant. Words simply fail to describe it. However, it is vital to understand the importance the event placed on these honored “national heroes.”

Korean experts stress the relevance placed on Kim’s physicists. Professor Andrei Lankov, a highly respected Russian expert on Korea and instructor at Kookmin University in Seoul, who has studied at the Kim Il Sung University in Pyongyang—agrees. He says that it boils down to the fact that Kim sees nuclear weapons as a means to an end. He feels any weapon of mass destruction protects his country from going the way of Iraq or Libya, who did not maintain an effort to develop an effective deterrent. Kim Jong Un also values and appreciates from a historical perspective the implied threats of nuclear attack. He learned this from his grandfather, who recalled the Korean armistice. The memory is certainly clear as well to all DPRK officials of Douglas MacArthur’s desire to use nuclear weapons on a broad scale during the Korean War. As soon as he was fired by President Harry Truman, General Mathew Ridgway replaced MacArthur, and immediately alluded to the possible use of dozens of nuclear weapons in tactical attacks against North Korean forces. Truman did not censor him. Then the new President-elect, Dwight Eisenhower, subtly made it known that he would consider using nuclear weapons to bring an end to the War. 29

Americans see it as absolutely insane that a struggling country like North Korea would play such a dangerous nuclear game. This is especially true when it has only recently started to make such significant improvements in its domestic economy, despite all the sanctions imposed on it. For the first time in many years, the life of average North Koreans is starting to slowly improve. Most economic analysts on North Korea feel the same way. They largely admire Kim Jong Un’s experiments in moving his country to a more market- like economy; however, it does not negate the fact he is an aggressive dictator with the apparent paranoid mindset previously described. As explained, analysts assume Kim Jong Un is using his nuclear build-up to force America to the negotiation table on equal terms. There is, however, a possible alternative strategy at play.

No Asian experts denies the fact that the curious and almost comical-acting communist monarchy known as North Korea has produced three leaders who are highly desirous of uniting Korea under the rule of their family dynasty. The concept is everywhere in North Korea, especially in the arts, which proliferates all levels of society.

That is also the mindset of the North Korean military from the highest-ranking officer to the soldier in the field. It is not just propaganda because their lives literally revolve around the concept that their role and the eventual mission of their country is unification. (They phrase it as “liberating the South.”) This has been true since the Korean War started with an invasion of the South. Of course, for the North Koreans, that war has never ended. The concept is so significant because the military is the single most powerful element in North Korea, and it explains why Kim Jong Un has had such a successful and rapid rise in gaining total control. He has their support.

Jim Jong Un’s chief title, in fact, is Marshall. No outsider knows how he has gained and maintained that support—especially after executing so many of the senior military leaders. Intelligence officials think Kim Jong Un likely had a firm grip on the military even before his father’s death. Former leader Kim Jong Il had granted prominent military titles on his son, who may have been the force behind the 2010 sinking of the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan, and the bombardment of civilian and military targets on Yeonpyeong island that same year. Those were bold and unprecedented acts and likely solidified Kim Jong Un’s standing with the military. Kim’s continued prioritizing of nuclear weapons development since his ascension to power must help. It certainly maintains his positive image with the military despite the constant vacancies caused by firing squads. In fact, it may be necessary for Kim to continually promote that image of nuclear and missile weaponeer in order for himself to retain the respect and overall support of the military. Kim’s crazy statements such as reducing America to ashes may not even sound reasonable to him, but they do give him great press domestically. The military does believe such slogans and keeping the military behind him has to be his chief concern. He cannot and will not lose face at home. 30

Yet, his statements concerning unification may not just be talk. There are many indicators that lead to the possible scenario that Kim’s strategy revolves around a long-term and complex game of chess that will make U.S. intervention on the Korean Peninsula so unattractive that we, as a nation, lose our will to deal with the situation. (Vietnam is not an exact analogy, although history shows it as a country destined to have been unified.) Kim may also be exploring every possible way to drive wedges between the U.S. and South Korea, as well as China. Japan would also have to be a force to be manipulated. The Kim family has engaged in just such games with 13 American presidential administrations. And, that is what we as Americans forget. We look at this ongoing drama in terms of what took place yesterday and what might happen next week. On the other hand, the North Koreans look at the crisis in terms of how it will continue to evolve during the next decade. We lose our focus after several weeks, but they concentrate in time spans of years. Yet, in order to pursue that long-term strategy, they must survive. Kim must survive—and preserve his dynasty.

Oriana Skylar Mastro, assistant professor of security studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and the 2016–17 Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, has written insightful articles about China and North Korean politics. She points out that Kim indeed needs nuclear weapons for one reason—to keep himself in power.

The United Nations has passed yet another round of severe sanctions without a veto by China or Russia. Both, however, worked to water down the sanctions as much as possible. They do not see sanctions as the best way to deter North Korea from becoming a nuclear power (which it basically has already succeeded in doing). That simple point is extremely relevant because the current administration does not yet concede that North Korea is a nuclear power—a nuclear power player. China and Russia also worry about pushing the young leader to the point that he could feel cornered because that could trigger a war for which no one is ready. Russian historians often make the analogy that President Roosevelt’s varied gasoline, oil and scrap-iron embargos on Japan beginning in July of 1940 led to the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. American historians give less emphasis to the concept that America “forced Japan into World War II.” However, it is clear North Korea feels insulted by UN sanctions—even if they have so far managed to mitigate them. Of course, to date, the one essential commodity, oil, has not “significantly” been denied to North Korea. China and, to a much lesser extent, Russian have been North Korea’s primary suppliers of petroleum, and they have not pushed to completely cut the flow of oil to Kim Jong Un. They clearly fear to do that because they know the consequences could be far ranging. Events could quickly cascade out of control.

That being said, there is no clear explanation of where China and Russia stand. Neither seem prepared for, nor want, a war. That would only heighten U.S. and South Korean influence in the region. At the same time, it seems obvious that North Korea’s missile and nuclear developments are progressing much faster than they should be—compared to what a home-grown technical evolution should resemble. Evidence builds of Russian scientists providing know-how and Chinese vendors supplying electronics and missile guidance systems. 31

Michael Elleman, Pentagon consultant and missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, states the technical similarities with the latest North Korean rocket motor tests and former Soviet technology is “shocking.” He has been quoted as saying that it “seemed to come out of nowhere.” Other weapon specialists have detected design features that resemble those of the Soviet-era ballistic missile base- engine called RD-250, which was a highly reliable power source for ICBMs—exactly what Kim Jong Un promised he would have by the end of this year.

Experts say Kim Jong Un would not be risking missile test flights over Japan now unless he was confident that he finally had a very reliable system. Although, where did all this better ICBM technology come from during the last six months, when prior to that North Korea was having one missile failure after another? The United Nations has also investigated evidence supplied by South Korea indicating that DPRK missile debris reflect Chinese manufacturers at play, as well. No doubt exists that the very large mobile missile carriages for the new line of North Korean rockets are Chinese made.

Indicators point in many confusing directions. Asian expert Oriana Skylar Mastro sees the recent massive Chinese troop build-up on the North Korean border as a possible means to go in and seize Kim’s nuclear infrastructure if they feel it necessary. They could also just as easily be there to protect Kim should the U.S. seek a unilateral preemptive strike. Not only China, but South Korea, as well, has clearly stated that unilateral action by America is unacceptable. Many analysts have weighed in with observations.

Evan Osnos, New Yorker staff writer and author of Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China states:

“At the center of the North Korean nuclear crisis is a pivotal question: How much is China really willing to pressure and punish its longtime ally in Pyongyang? Recent conversations in Beijing and Washington suggest that Chinese leaders have decided to increase pressure substantially but are not—and probably never will be—willing to help President Trump strangle North Korea into submission. China doesn’t trust Kim Jong Un—but it trusts Trump even less…In recent years, overly hopeful U.S. politicians and commentators have repeatedly misunderstood China’s views of North Korea and assumed that Beijing was, at last, turning against its irksome ally. In private meetings with President Obama, and later with President Trump, [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] has repeated a bottom-line principle about North Korea: ‘No war. No chaos. No nukes.’” Osnos recently interviewed Zhao Tong, a specialist in nuclear issues and fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Zhao Tong stated:

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“I think some Chinese are secretly hoping the North Korean position can actually help drive the U.S. forces away from the Korean Peninsula.”

Osnos elaborated on Zhao Tong’s opinions in his recent New Yorker article:

“It’s not a warm relationship of ‘brothers.’ Given that North Korea has continued to test nuclear weapons in the face of Chinese protests, Zhao said, China would not feel automatically compelled to defend North Korea under their mutual-assistance treaty. Most Chinese would laugh at the proposal that China should provide security guarantees… Yet it would be a mistake to misread China signing on, wholesale, to American efforts to force North Korea to the edge of collapse—a tactic, favored in Washington, known as ‘strategic strangulation.’ No, it’s just balancing Trump and Kim Jong Un…they [China] are trying to draw a line between North Korea’s military program and civilian trade. To put more pressure on North Korea, without undermining it. China has been taking the incremental approach…In Zhao’s view, even though China has agreed to limit oil exports to North Korea, it is unlikely to cut them off entirely, which the Trump Administration believes is a vital step to change Kim’s behavior.”

He insightfully adds:

“Nothing worries Chinese officials more than the following scenario: the U.S. uses harsh sanctions and covert action—and possibly military strikes—to drive North Korea close to the point of regime collapse. In turn, Pyongyang lashes out with violence against America or its allies, sparking a full-blown war on China’s border, just as China is trying to maintain delicate economic growth and social stability. Xi, in separate sessions, has offered Obama and Trump the same Chinese adage in reference to North Korea: ‘When a man is barefoot, he doesn’t fear a man with shoes.’ In other words, even if attacking America would be suicide for North Korea, if it sees nothing left to lose, it just might do the unthinkable. For that reason, China, above all, wants the U.S. to avoid backing Kim into a corner from which he has no exit.”

On the other hand, there are those who ask, is North Korea “being played” as a proxy by China or even Russia? It sounds almost like a conspiracy theory. Yet, the history of the former Cold War shows the Soviets and Chinese and also Americans, routinely challenged each other through third-party countries. Or could Kim Jong Un encourage such behind-the-scenes activity? Could he see it as a means to an end in his supposed grand strategy to unify the Koreas? Or could China and even Russia be as fed-up with the DPRK as the United States? Our hubris convinces us as Americans that we are always the center of the story. We assume Kim Jong Un is trying to force us to the negotiation table with his advanced weapons development. In reality, he may have no desire to talk. Or, he may have no desire to talk to us. We fear and react to his nuclear rhetoric, but it may just be one part of a bigger strategy. There is a lot more to the story than the threats. Some in the defense community see the situation in much simpler terms, and they break it down into two straightforward viewpoints. The first and most popular scenario is that

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Kim Jong Un really believes what his country has been teaching its citizens for three generations now and that is that the United States is hellbent on one day invading North Korea or at the very least bombing it. If that is the case, Kim may very well see the rationale, via his convoluted communist/monarchy ideology, in doing something so crazy as develop a nuclear arsenal as a deterrent.

The second case goes like this: Kim Jong Un is not a stupid fellow and knows the simple difference between propaganda and the tried and proven mechanisms his country has used to manipulate and control his countrymen for the last six decades. That may be the most dangerous scenario because it would mean he is smart enough to know that Americans have absolutely no desire what so ever to voluntarily get involved in another war in Asia. (True, the bi-annual war games the U.S., South Korea and Japan engage in are frustrating to Kim, but they clearly do not indicate they are planning an unprovoked attack.) If he really is shrewd enough to understand that America is not plotting to destroy North Korea, then it is the more unsettling of the two theories. In that case, there would be no logical reason to be working so hard and so fast to develop a nuclear-tipped ICBM as well as submarine-launched ballistic missiles, let alone seizing the monumental challenge of going from atomic weapons to thermonuclear devices. Kim Jong Un could much more easily, safely, and cheaply draw his weapons development out over many years and still retain just as much admiration from his military and citizens. He certainly does not need nuclear weapons to negotiate because his economy has been modernizing fairly well already through the many years of sanctions. Of course, the harsher sanctions would not even exist if he was not moving so fast these past six months. It would, however, suggest there is another unknown strategy or external manipulation at hand.

Experts surprisingly discount what most average people think and that is he is simply nuts. The only point that the majority of those who follow North Korea agree on is that we do not have all the pieces of the puzzle yet. Stay tuned. Once we piece it together, it will be the story of the year!

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 19 North Korea’s Next Move

North Korea has gradually reached almost every major technological milestone that the American, Russian and Chinese engineers did in their race to create a nuclear-tipped ICBM. That is except for two. The first is perfecting a nosecone that can withstand the stresses of reentry. Evidence suggests that the most recent missile launches have still failed in that important category. The second involves a nightmare scenario that the superpowers themselves only engaged in a few times.

Rarely have the great powers ever tested delivery systems in conjunction with a nuclear test. Of course, after the October 10, 1963 enforcement of the Limited Test Ban Treaty, America and the Soviet Union were confined to only underground testing and could not conduct such a test. China, however, tested a nuclear launched warhead as late as 1966. This was largely in response to President Lyndon Johnson’s public skepticism of the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964. He stated, “Many years and great efforts separate the testing of a first nuclear device from having a stockpile of reliable weapons with effective delivery systems.” In reaction to this, China changed their arranged plans for a following underground test and put their nuclear device on a missile and launched it to prove that they could deliver a nuclear warhead.

History can repeat itself, and this may be where we stand with the next demonstration from North Korea. Or, instead of testing an ICBM, they may test a type of missile which is just as dangerous. They have already made great advances in testing solid-fueled ballistic missiles from submerged test stands, and the next logical step is to mate that with a nuclear warhead and do their first demonstration of a submarine launched missile. Five months before the Cuban missile Crisis in May of 1962, the United States launched their first submarine-launched missile with a nuclear warhead in a successful test detonation codenamed “Frigate Bird.”

With North Korea’s sixth nuclear (possibly thermonuclear) test this past weekend and a public demonstration of Kim Jong Un inspecting what is claimed to be a missile mountable two stage thermonuclear warhead, tensions are high. Tensions could, however, reach an even higher point if Kim attempts an atmospheric test with a live nuclear-missile. All three superpowers felt the need to make that demonstration in their own nuclear development history. It may be North Korea’s next move.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 35

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 18 All in the Family – Who is Kim Jong Un?

North Korea is quickly becoming one of the biggest stories of this year as Kim Jong Un continues to conduct ever-advancing ballistic missile tests and nuclear weapons research. The world is watching the political drama generated by Kim’s seemingly bizarre country. Unfortunately, a lot of the finer details are not being widely reported or are misunderstood. Kim Jong Un is such a big part of that unfolding story, we need to know more about him!

In the funeral procession of Kim Jong Il in December 2011, his 28-year-old son, Kim Jong Un, walked beside North Korea’s top generals and in step with his uncle Jang Song Thaek. In a little more than a year all those senior officials and Jang had been executed. Kim Jong Un quickly established absolute control as many other executions followed. Six months ago, that hold on power appeared to be in some question when Kim had his eldest brother, Kim Jong Nam, assassinated at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia. Kim obviously feared someone may be trying to initiate a regime change.

Western experts tend to focus only on the political dimension of Kim, and although he may have rivals, it seems he had a firm control over the military even before his father’s death. His father had granted prominent military titles on his son, who may have been the leader behind the 2010 sinking of the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan and the bombardment of civilian and military targets on Yeonpyeong island that same year. Those were bold and unprecedented acts and likely solidified Kim Jong Un’s standing. Kim’s mother, Ko Yong Hui, played an important part, as well, in grooming her youngest son for succession. Despite the benefit of having the power of the military behind him, Kim had an undisputed rise following his father’s death. He has continued to prove himself. In the eyes of his countrymen, he has brought a decidedly new look and increasingly popular feel to North Korea. There is much, of course, that Korean analysts do not know. Some feel Kim either has a tremendous knack for governing or he has some very talented advisors. A few go so far to say he is just a puppet and someone far smarter and more powerful must be behind him. It is clear, however, in the short time since he has succeeded his father, Kim has liberalized and improved the economy while making North Korea a nuclear power with ever-increasingly sophisticated ballistic missile technology. This has been a steady progression of simultaneously concentrating on both the economy and the military. North Korea even has a name for this strategy, which is called Byungjin—and Byungjin is succeeding despite all the many sanctions. 36

The details of that success reveal surprising facts about Kim. It is a misconception to characterize North Korea as a famine-struck backward nation. Even senior U.S. government analysts are making that mistake. Since Kim Jong Un has come to power the starvation has been ended. He has succeeded in increasing food supplies and has literally put produce on the shelves. Some of it is purely for show in the model capital city of Pyongyang, however, in the surrounding towns, markets also have food for sale. This higher level of prosperity is nowhere near where it was when the DPRK had close economic ties with the Soviet Union three decades ago, when for a very brief period they approached some partial parity with South Korea. The fall of the USSR ended that hope and brought on years of famine and hardship that we now so identify with North Korea.

Kim Jong Un has only recently made headway in reversing that dark history with significant help from China. He did this even though DPRK party officials vowed never to be so reliant on foreign assistance again. As pointed out, Koreans like to name such concepts which they, in this case, call Juche—and Juche or self-reliance is the official state policy.

Kim Jong Un seems to have the power and authority to bend the rules to fit. Or perhaps someone is giving him those ideas. Undoubtedly, he is succeeding in conveying the notion to his people that they are moving forward. Kim liberally builds on the image of his grandfather, Kim Il Song, who remains the iconic and literal god-like figure in North Korean history. The young successor goes to extraordinary lengths to do that. Kim is mocked in the West for his eccentric haircut and increasing waist-line; however, it is apparently very intentional because that is how his grandfather is remembered by him. While few in America have ever heard Kim Jong Un’s voice, it is said to purposefully mirror the recordings of Kim Il Song. It is also said Kim Jong Un is a good public speaker with a commanding personality. This, again, is reminiscent of his grandfather and totally unlike his father who had a severe stuttering problem and a very weak physical appearance. His father never made television appearances, but Kim Jong Un often appears in that media which is starting to enter more and more homes, along with TVs, in the prospering economy.

Nor does Kim Jong Un seem to display the excesses of his father, and by all accounts is a devoted family man, though it is an arranged marriage. South Korean Intelligence has made the claim Kim is a heavy drinker and drug addict; however, there is no convincing evidence for that. Kim Jong Un’s wife, Ri Sol Ju, is about as close a comparison to how mesmerizing the young Princes Diana or Jackie Kennedy once appeared to their own countrymen. Ri Sol Ju is known as the first “first lady” of North Korea. The young couple have three children with the latest being recently born this year. 37

The couple’s youthful persona is very appealing to younger generations in the North and, to some extent, even to the South Koreans, who are very taken by such material images. It is also apparent that Kim Jong Un has a great deal of “respect” for women, or at least that is one perception. Kim has often been seen in public with his aunt, Kim Kyong Hui. After executing her husband, Kim apparently made up with his aunt by making her Secretary of the Workers Party. Perhaps it is because she is Kim Il Song’s daughter and Kim Jong Il’s sister that she holds a position of such prominence.

Kim Jong Un has also worked to professionalize the more than half-million women soldiers in the North Korean army. His youngest sister, Kim Yo Jong may have played an important part in that, as well. In fact, she herself seems to hold the most power next to Kim. As it now stands, Kim Yo Jong will likely be his self-appointed successor and has reportedly already stepped in for Kim as head of State when past illnesses forced his absence.

Details about the 30-year-old Kim Yo Jong are sketchy. Intelligence officials think she previously worked with a number of Japanese abductees kidnapped by North Korean special forces who were seeking information for future infiltration into Japanese society. North Korea has a long history of abductions of Japanese and South Korean citizens, and Kim Yo Jong seems to be the most recent player in this game. Currently she heads the “Propaganda and Agitation Department” and organizes all state events. Some have even suggested she is the real power in North Korea; however, that may be a stretch. Undoubtedly Kim Yo Jong has great influence over Kim, and she crafts his public persona. The sister and brother team are said to have always been extremely devoted to one another from childhood. Both remained inseparable and went to school together in Switzerland. It would be hard to dream-up a fictional story about such a puzzling character as Kim Yo Jong. However, she is real and clearly a key person to watch. Intelligence officials speculate she may be much more unpredictable and dangerous than Kim Jong Un.

Kim Yo Jong sees to it that her brother has a very nationalistic profile, and she is the one behind all his highly unique public appearances. Kim Jong Un certainly spends a tremendous amount of time touring his country. His people see him everywhere as they did his grandfather, and continue to see his grandfather’s image in abundant works of public art idolizing Kim Il Sung. It is hard for us to appreciate the significance of this because to most average Americans, art is something confined to a museum.

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In North Korea art is widely used and respected by its citizens, who have a sincere cultural appreciation. Kim Jong Un obviously gets a great deal of propaganda value out of his travels, which are extensively covered in the press; however, to be fair, leaders in our own county do the same thing, and it is called making political appearances. Yet, Kim Yo Jong takes her brother’s image to new highs in promoting her family dynasty’s iconic heritage. It is not unreasonable to speculate that the constant emphasis on portraying Kim’s likeness to that of his grandfather is her inspiration. Both South Korean and Western Intelligence are increasingly struck by the close association of Kim Jong Un with his sister’s talents. It is all in the family.

Kim is definitely riding high this summer in North Korea, and it is due as much to new economic policies as to Kim Yo Jong’s Joseph Goebbels- like propaganda machine. Nevertheless, the tangible economic reforms should not be underestimated. Kim, for example, has put considerable effort into sending some of the best and brightest business and economic majors in his country to be further educated in Singapore. It is believed he may actually be considering a future transition to even greater liberalization of the economy or perhaps a market-like economy, not unlike what China went through in the 1970s. There are already signs of it. State-collective farms have been largely dismantled and private entrepreneurship is increasingly encouraged. State-industries are starting to evolve into private companies, although this is not evident on paper yet. There are true wages in North Korea, and those wages are going up! Although, compared to other nation’s salaries, they are still only subsistence level. The average monthly Korean salary has a dollar equivalent of 50 cents. This being said, some factory workers are now getting salaries as high as $50 per month. So this revolutionary new concept that some people at least have the opportunity to make significantly more money and improve their lives is becoming a reality in the new North Korean economy. It is generating hope and motivation. These economic reforms are apparently Kim’s ideas, yet they get very little attention in the world media. Even Kim Yo Jong’s propaganda, for whatever reason, does not seem to dare give them as much attention as seemingly deserved. Certainly, Kim’s new hybrid- style market-like economy is strongly linked with “unofficial” (black-market) trade across the Chinese—DPRK border. Thus, no balance sheets exist, but the evidence is in the improvement to everyday life in North Korea, which is starting to be widely observed by foreign visitors. 39

The only factor Kim Jong Un and his sister may fear is that this movement of goods and trade inevitably leads to information. On a daily basis, computers, thumb drives, DVD players and media disks are being traded into North Korea. More than a million North Koreans also have attained modern radios. The South Korean broadcast that they pick up often concocts propaganda to appeal to North Koreans and thus contain as many untruths as in North Korean propaganda. However, North Koreans are learning about the rest of the world, and they like what they hear. There is even some access to the internet in Pyongyang for the social elite; however, little is known to what extent this is controlled, but it is believed some Party officials have access to Facebook. It will remain to be seen to what degree Kim will be able to balance a more liberal economy with foreign cultural influences. We assume the DPRK officials fear their citizens learning about the freedom and excesses of America, Japan and South Korea. But just as in China, their people are not only owning cell phones but starting to get paid to make them. A report from the US-Korea Institute at SAIS reports that more than three million cell phones are in service in North Korea, and foreign visitors are starting to see average citizens carry and use them in Pyongyang, as well as in the smaller cities.

Economic progress thus does not always equate to political change. Children attending Kindergarten continue to start their state education with rudimentary lessons on the playground in bayonet games against dummies made to resemble American soldiers.

International exchange students meeting and making friends with DPRK students in foreign countries report very interesting observations. They characterize the average young educated North Korean as openly admiring American culture. On the other hand, those same hermit-kingdom young professionals are equally convinced that American politicians are committed to eventually invading North Korea. 40

The point is, although North Koreans are awed by the material wealth of other nations; their political indoctrination gives them a strong sense of national identity. Most North Koreans, just like Americans, love their country. They see great riches abroad but most may be more inclined to work toward building a better North Korea than be inclined to revolt. A lot of media attention is generated by North Korean defectors. Such people are not only extremely brave but by nature often idealistic and thus they may not necessarily represent a majority of the DPRK population. Some analysts say Kim does not have to worry about economic liberalization just as the Chinese leaders learned that they could maintain overall order if they could also provide the hope of a better future.

Certainly, Kim Jong Un is performing some amazing feats that unfortunately also involve building a nuclear arsenal along with delivery systems. So, the question has to be asked: how stable is he? Professor Andrei Lankov, a Russian expert on Korea and instructor at Kookmin University in Seoul, who has studied at the Kim Il Sung University in Pyongyang, expressed concern over Kim’s grasp on reality. Both Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong had a spoiled and privileged childhood not unlike those of many Western billionaires. Kim always had his own chauffeured Mercedes and wore foreign shoes that equate to the yearly salary of an average North Korean worker. Both sister and brother, in all likelihood, have never been out of sight of a host of bodyguards since the day they were born. Their entire existence has been one of isolation from the real world, which includes their schooling near Berne, Switzerland. At the Liebefeld-Steinholzli school in Koniz, instructors required Kim Jong Un to study and address them in German, which to his frustration, he had little proficiency in. His education is said to have lacked any distinction, and his only passions reportedly centered around American basketball, computer games and incessantly playing the North Korean national anthem in his room. School mates characterized him as shy and aloof except on the basketball court. Professor Lankov pointed out that Kim’s grandfather did not have that detached disadvantage, having had a real-world education. Kim Il Song, of course, battled Japanese as a guerilla fighter and became a close associate of Stalin in his young adulthood. He forged himself into North Korea’s first leader and understood that being a dictator is a serious game. A deadly game. Both his grandfather and even his father had to struggle to attain their positions. Many doubt if Kim understands the reality of his situation into which he and his sister so easily stepped.

Recently Professor Lankov, who is the most widely published authority on North Korea, has added to his assessment of Kim. He states Kim Jong Un is starting to surprise a lot of people because he seems to have staying power. Professor Lankov now admits that Kim is smart, decisive, brutal, impulsive, and has an apparent love of “gaining experiences,” which may be why many of his actions do not seem logical. He is growing and maturing and apparently not afraid of making mistakes in order to learn.

Others agree he is a quite competent 21st Century dictator albeit a homicidal one. This growing respect for Kim Jong Un is gaining acceptance. The Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics has analyzed Kim. They are a research program in the psychology 41 of politics at St. John’s University and the College of St. Benedict. They specialize in the assessment of world leaders and have categorized some very positive impressions of Kim. They also question if he is the man who is really calling the shots. Other psychological profiles portray him as paranoid. We know from many accounts that, he has a problem making eye contact. He may have good reason for that behavior. Apparently, he lives in fear of being targeted by a coalition strike team. There is some evidence that the United States and South Korea may be preparing just such an operation. Kim has recently consulted with former KGB experts on how to increase his personal protection. This may be why Kim now uses doubles who travel as widely as he does. That is a long-accepted practice that both Churchill and Hitler used to advantage in World War II. During one of the most recently publicized missile launches, Kim posed as he always does for photos. However, they chose to make that launch at night perhaps to protect him from surveillance.

As of this writing, Kim Jong Un has not ceased his missile launches despite the war of words with the United States. Talk now intensifies that North Korea may be renewing preparation for its sixth nuclear test, which has been expected since July. If so, this may involve the significant step of graduating from a fission atomic device to a hydrogen thermonuclear device. It would be yet another game changer, as Kim has slowly and gradually reached almost every major technological milestone that the Americans and Soviets did as they approached the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

A consensus of many and varied “experts” who try to answer the question of who is Kim Jong Un are inclined say that he sees nuclear weapons simply as an insurance policy. In other words, a means to protect his country from going the way of Iraq or Libya. He also remembers the implied threats of nuclear attacks his grandfather lived with which may have forced the Korean armistice. While Kim Jong Un probably has no real desire to use nuclear weapons, he may have no hesitation to cross U.N. and United States-imposed resolutions and redlines when testing weapon systems. Most senior scholars warn of backing Kim and his family into a corner. South Korea, in particular, fears that if Kim and his sister feel they have their backs against a wall, they could do anything. Granted, as nuclear proliferation expert Dr. Siegfried S. Hecker states, they may not be “suicidal,” but analysts agree they certainly “think” from a far different perspective than we do. North Korea’s future actions could be all in the family.

Michael Hall

Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 17 Thinking Like a North Korean

How do the people of North Korea think? More importantly for the current crisis—how does Kim Jong Un think? The latter question may never be answered; however, following are four key impressions on which a consensus of North Korea analysts can agree:

First, North Koreans, right down to the peasants in the fields, have a sincere and deep sense of national pride. This goes beyond the state indoctrination they receive from childhood. They love their country just as most Americans do. Similarly, as we did in our own nation in the 1950s, they accept the fact with pride that their country has nuclear weapons. For the North Koreans, nuclear weapons are now an important part of their national identity. These weapons foster a sense of deep accomplishment. North Koreans, let alone their DPRK leaders, will never consider under any circumstances abandoning them. The days of nuclear weapons being on the negotiation table are long gone, and that is a fact with which America must come to grips.

Secondly, the North Koreans believe that the United States and, to some extent, their allies pose an imminent threat to their country. That is, of course, an untrue assessment, although it is a very rational belief—in their eyes. The mindset that they are in a state of perpetual war with the United States is indoctrinated into all North Koreans virtually from birth. If we grew up in North Korea we would feel the same because that is what we would be taught. Many times when we start to think as the North Koreans, we do not like what we learn. However, when we diminish what other people believe, we do so at our own hubris. Americans have a very short historical attention span. Asian people, and especially the North Koreans, because of their ideology and government-enforced indoctrination, have a very long memory. They know that more than 10 percent of their population died during the Korean War. Virtually every city in North Korea was leveled. Their dams were destroyed causing massive flooding, and their industry eliminated. These are facts, and it is also a fact of history that the Korean War never resulted in a peace treaty, only an armistice. So, for the North Korean people, the war never ended. On an emotional level, it is still going on for them. 43

What we also forget is that in the 1970s and 1980s North Korea had an amazing resurgence in their economy. There was a point when they were trying to put the Korean War behind them. This had been a challenge because the peninsula remained divided and the South has historically had the best ports, industry, and farmlands. North Korea is extremely mountainous and colder; yet, they have important mineral resources (excluding oil) that helped fuel a two-decade economic boom. The big problem came with the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. The USSR had been a key supporter and trading partner with North Korea. They had been North Korea’s chief supplier of oil. When they failed, the North Korean economy tumbled.

Since then, despite a long-standing “Juche” policy not to become too heavily dependent again on China, North Korea has rekindled an important connection with that country that literally went to war for them in October 1950 when the Chinese Army crossed the Yalu. Mao Zedong’s eldest son died in that war along with a half a million Chinese—many of whom, including Mao’s son, are buried in Pyongyang. So there is a shared history, and the DPRK government in recent years has gained much technical assistance, in addition to trade and now oil from China. In the past year, despite sanctions, North Korea’s economy has been showing significant signs of improvements. The North Korean people now heavily rely on China in a new relaxed hybrid market style economy— none of which except seafood transactions have been impacted by the most recent UN sanctions.

This leads to the third observation, which is that the DPRK government and its North Korean citizens have a deep sense of history. They see themselves in the daily framework of history. “Selective” history lessons and government indoctrination from a very early age ingrain common beliefs into all classes. Justifiably, they have seen themselves dominated by Europeans, Japanese, Russians, Americans and even Chinese—all at great costs. In more modern times, in their eyes, they have observed other countries like Iraq and Libya fall to “American aggression.” That is, of course, propaganda, but what we Westerners fail to see is that they believe that propaganda. Furthermore, they have analyzed how Iraq and Libya failed, and in their mind it comes down to one common denominator. Those countries did not have nuclear weapons. Or, that is at least how they rationalize it. They also recall Douglas MacArthur’s desire to use nuclear weapons on a broad scale during the Korean War. As soon as he was fired by President Harry Truman, General Mathew Ridgway replaced him, and one of the first public statements he made 44 was that he wanted to use dozens of tactical nuclear weapons against the North Koreans. Truman did not censor him. Then the new President Elect, Dwight Eisenhower, subtly made it known that he would consider using nuclear weapons to bring an end to the Korean War.

These are all facts of history, and they have never been forgotten by the North Koreans. In their eyes, they see a strong argument for having the security of nuclear weapons. Whether it is a valid argument or not is not the relevant point. They believe it to be so. And now they have them. And this is the reality of where we are now. North Korea is a nuclear power.

Taking a moment to look at how people perceive events and how history provides analogies is not an idle exercise. The truly successful and forward-thinking leaders have all had a strong respect for history, as well as the ability to open their minds to how different people view the world.

The First World War still remains an interesting study for many such progressives. In the summer of 1914, a high degree of confidence existed that the Balkan Crisis would not lead to a general war. Serbia would be taught a lesson, and life would go on in a world dominated by three great powers and associated allies. Many key leaders were on summer vacations, and as the rhetoric intensified it was all too easy to either ignore it or idly add to the war of words. Many statements akin to “Fire and Fury” were being thrown around. Preemptive actions or some mobilization as a precaution may be necessary, but a largescale war, certainly a long one, was unthinkable.

The greatest and most exhausting war to date then followed. The element that soon made World War I so unprecedented centered on the weapons. They surprised everyone. The generals and admirals were confident they understood the machine gun and the use of large dreadnoughts, and all marveled how both land and naval forces trained in the use of massive new arsenals of artillery pieces. Obviously, cavalry would make this a mobile and short-lived war. It would be over by Christmas. Of course, that all proved untrue. The truth was that no one, especially the generals, really understood how deadly modern weapons would be and to the extent they made existing war plans obsolete.

Like in 1914, in 2017, most of the armies of the world have never really used the weapons they possess in an actual war. The United States has made great advancements in computerized or smart weapons systems and has gained some experience after almost two decades of excursions in the Middle East. All countries train and have exercises. However, what would a large-scale war look like if it came? Most wars have proved that the weapons systems developed between various wars never end up being used as intended. The tank, even in the late 1930s, promised to be effective only in close support of the infantry. Yet, that is not how it ended up being best employed in World War II. The biggest and most 45 expensive arms race in history did not involve nuclear weapons. It was rather an arms race that culminated in the largest and most heavily-armored naval fleets the world had ever seen in World War I. The number of battleships built actually dwarfed what was seen in World War II. However, the weapon that came to make the biggest impact at sea was not the battleship but the submarine, which had been ignored up to that time. Submarines had a huge impact on commerce raiding, and became far more relevant in sea warfare than the handful of naval engagements that involved almost a hundred dreadnoughts. Dreadnoughts were in fact so expensive and time consuming to build that admirals were actually afraid to use them.

If war comes to Asia, will it be limited to North Korea? Westerners confidently assure Kim Jong Un that if he goes too far “his country will be destroyed.” They admit the DPRK can cause a lot of damage while the United States and its allies “take him out,” but few doubt the final outcome. How many times have we heard that? “North Korea cannot survive a war.”

The problem is no one ever considers what countries like China or even Russia might do. In the past, they have intervened in the affairs of Korea and prevented a collapse of North Korea. We put a lot of emphasis on nuclear weapons in this current crisis. We fear them, and we also speculate they might actually solve the crisis either as a deterrent or by limited use. Real war, however, might actually prove the nuclear arsenals as unwieldly as the expensive and precious battle fleets built prior to World War I. They may not even come into play. Certainly, if history proves anything, the war plans and weapons technology going into the next war will not end up being used as intended.

This indirectly brings us to the fourth and most important point that needs to be understood in order to “think like a North Korean.” The biggest issue now among the DPRK is the Allied military exercises that occur twice a year. This is also becoming a very sore point with China. The exercises are regularly held by America and South Korea to assure that if war comes they will have a good handle on how to use modern weapons in the next war.

To the North Koreans, however, these exercises are a threat or an actual practice run for an invasion. Relevant or not, the point is they believe it to be so. It is not propaganda; it really is what they think. That is one of the main reason China keeps telling the United States that their joint military exercises with South Korea are so extremely dangerous. The problem is we do not want to hear this, so we don’t hear it.

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So, that is likely to be the next big story to receive attention as a new round of exercises begin on August 21. In recent days, South Korea has also added to the complexity of the overall situation with statements warning the United States against independently initialing unilateral military action against North Korea. Few are paying attention to statements from China that indicate they will not tolerate preemptive military action and they are now moving naval ships into the Yellow Sea to better monitor the situation. Meanwhile, Russia is warning that any military response will lead to a “colossal tragedy.” “Fire and Fury” continues to be given attention through media soundbites. And although the U.S. Administration is declaring a great victory over the Guam crisis, Kim Jong Un has been relatively somber these past days. What you do not hear the Administration saying is that the most recent satellite photos show movements of numerous mobile missile launchers around North Korea.

The game of chess is not over, and it would be interesting to be able to know how Kim Jong Un thinks. Experts seem to agree on only one fact when it comes to his thinking and that is summed up in one word: unification. It has been the consistent long-term goal of his father and grandfather, and it is most assuredly his. Kim is far more patient and calculating than people appreciate, and his dynasty has seen many U.S. presidents come and go. So as of this date, the war of words goes on just as it did more than 100 years ago this summer. Then, in 1914, it had been almost exactly another hundred years since the last major war with the defeat of Napoleon. In 1914, no one thought such a thing could happen again. Yet no one took the time to understand how each side thought, nor appreciate the possible effects of new technology. We need to use lessons of the past to better understand the future.

Michael Hall

Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 16 Heads-up

The Washington Post has broken the story that the United States Defense Intelligence Agency has concluded that North Korea has successfully miniaturized a nuclear warhead. The Japanese Ministry of Defense is confirming that same analysis. It is not known if a miniaturized device has been tested yet, but North Korea claimed its last or fifth test did exactly that. That test on September 9, 2016 produced a yield estimated at 20 to 30 kilotons which is easily twice that of the Hiroshima explosion. Perhaps the long awaited sixth nuclear test thought to have been due this past April will also be geared to that end.

Another new assessment by those same intelligence officials now puts the North Korean nuclear arsenal at around 60 devices. (We do not know what new intelligence they are basing these conclusions on.) Other non-governmental estimates are more conservative. There are additional considerations. While amazing success has been demonstrated in intercontinental ballistic missile development in the last month, there is considerable debate over North Korea’s ability to tackle the reentry problem. Huge technical challenges are associated with getting a nuclear warhead to survive reentry into Earth’s atmosphere after it has been fired on a global trajectory across an immense ocean like the Pacific. Most experts feel North Korea is still ten to twelve months away from solving that problem.

Nevertheless, miniaturization is a significant watershed event because North Korea is simultaneously making steady advancements in many arenas of missile technology including submarine-launched devices. These are not unexpected developments and have long been monitored. The new accelerated speed of all these milestones are however surprising and the new announcements by intelligence officials are sobering. As detailed in the last update, many analysts feel North Korea may be getting technical assistance. 48

Certainly, recent sanctions have been diluted by both China and Russia but primarily by China. It will remain to be seen how effective the most recent United Nation sanctions prove.

Robert Litwak, a nonproliferation expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, wrote an insightful book called Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout. His assessment is that rather than this ongoing crisis being described as a type of Cuban Missile Crisis in slow motion, it should be seen as an all-out Manhattan Project. Litwak has studied the history of nuclear testing in this country and in Russia and China. He feels North Korea is making the same progress other countries have in the past and sees no reason to doubt the historical analogy.

Dr. Siegfried S. Hecker, director emeritus of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and research professor at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, has been to North Korea on fact finding missions seven times between 2004 and 2010. He inspected their nuclear facilities. He does not feel the North Korean nuclear arsenal could presently be larger than 25 devices, and he also warns of overestimating Kim Jong Un’s intentions. He aptly points out that Kim is homicidal but not suicidal. Dr. Hecker warns the real threat is forcing a situation that will cause either side to stumble into nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula.

The National Atomic Testing Museum had the great honor of welcoming Dr. Hecker to our Distinguished Lecture Series on May 25th of this year. He served as co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Co-Operation for five years and knows more about North Korea than any other nuclear scientist. He gave us a unique update on North Korea at our lecture. Dr. Hecker stated that there are now no military options available. That time has come and gone.

He said the danger, now, is that this has become a hair-trigger situation. He urged the current administration to find a way to initiate talks with Kim Jong Un. Like it or not, North Korea has become a nuclear power. That cannot be undone.

Events now change hourly, but as it now stands, we have one side, our Administration warning of “Fire and Fury,” and the other side from Kim Jong Un warning of “Ending the American Empire.” Of course there was a time in history that when nations used such inflammatory language—it meant something. August of 1914 was one such time. Ironically, that long-ago crisis got out of control while many leaders were on their summer vacations idly responding to the crisis in Sarajevo. Over the last few months many crazy and contradictory statements have been made in and out of North Korea. That is unfortunate because it is starting to desensitize the public to the seriousness of this unfolding crisis. All the while, there may be those in power in key nations and in key positions who take the rhetoric seriously as happened one such hot summer long ago.

Michael Hall

Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 15 Something is Not Right

North Korea completed a second partially successful intercontinental ballistic m issile test on Friday, July 28th. The following day North Korea tested a solid fuel submarine-based ballistic missile system or “ejection test” from a specialized test stand at the Sinpo Naval Shipyard. At the beginning of this year Kim Jong Un publicly boasted he would succeed in developing an ICBM by year’s end. Few experts doubted that North Korea was working toward that goal, and few doubted they would succeed; however, no one thought Kim could do it in 2017. Many analysts are now starting to realize that there has been a fundamental change of some sort. Something is simply not right.

Not only is North Korea’s economy starting to accelerate at a time that sanctions should be crippling it, but Kim Jong Un’s weapons development programs are progressing faster than they should. Less than thirty days ago most experts agreed it would be four years before North Korea could threaten the United States with nuclear-tipped ICBMs. Now that estimate in some cases has gone down to one year. America built its own ICBM system in the 1950s, so we have some parallels to work from. Our first Atlas program spanned more than a two-year time frame but did not occur in a vacuum. We had gained a great deal of expertise from German engineers like von Braun who headed Hitler’s war- timeV-2 program. North Korea has similarly been inspired by Soviet and Chinese technology. In fact, many feel the latest missile tests cast a shadow of Chinese technological expertise and support.

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There is no doubt whatsoever that the mobile missile launchers and trucks being used by North Korea are Chinese in origin. Chinese manufacturers’ emblems are clearly visible on many of the trucks and trailers displayed in the recent April15th Pyongyang military parade. Films of the two most recent ICBM tests show TEL trucks or transporter-erector- launchers. The design of these TEL trucks are exact to the transporters made by the state owed China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation or CASIC. China claims these highly sophisticated pieces of equipment were exported to North Korea for “transporting timber” and for that reason are not subject to any of the official sanctions.

Another truck model made by the Chinese firm of Sinotruk has been photographed this year towing a North Korean submarine-based ballistic missile. Reuters recently reported yet another example. Their analysis of photographs published by North Korean State media reveals a new MRLS artillery battery. That stands for multiple-rocket-launcher- system, and the rocket launcher carriages or truck bodies in that photo have the markings of the Chinese-made Sinotruk HOWO truck company.

The proximity of the two recent ICBM tests to the Chinese border is also very curious. Michael Listner, a space policy expert at Space Law and Policy Solutions, stated that the Chinese could have been helping with calculations for the ballistic reentry of the missiles. Of course the closeness to Chinese territory would ease logistical problems of the transport of Chinese technical equipment and engineers. Space missile consultant Peter O’Brien fears it may be possible that China is helping North Korea with heat and pressure testing analysis of the warheads as they reenter the atmosphere. This is a very sophisticated technique which requires the ability to collect telemetry from the warhead. Somehow North Korea did get enough data back from the first ICBM launch to verify the warhead survived reentry, although analysis of the last test showed the warhead may have disintegrated on reentry. It should also be noted that advanced nuclear powers use narrow conical shaped reentry warheads which are difficult to intercept and better withstand reentry stresses. However, the warhead seen on the two recent North Korean ICBM are more blunt or triconic shaped. This North Korean design does nevertheless appear similar to some Chinese designs. Rick Fisher, a Senior Fellow at the International Assessment 51 and Strategy Center said similarities to Chinese warheads show up in both North Korean and Pakistani nose cones. More evidence of a strong Chinese connection mounts. When North Korea launched its Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite into space on February 7th of 2016, some sections of the rocket boosters were recovered from the Yellow Sea by the South Korean navy. Many motor parts were found to be manufactured in China. When the United Nations investigated those Chinese firms, they refused to respond to questions concerning the analysis of the recovered components.

Overall economic trade between China and North Korea has increased 40 percent over the last six months. Just in the first quarter of 2017 trade increased 37.4 percent. This is startling in light of all the recent hope that the United States has placed on China’s promise to exert more pressure on Kim Jong Un.

North Korea has significant mineral resources, and their exports of zinc are supposed to be decreasing according to sanctions, but they are actually increasing. North Korea’s exports of iron ore to China rose ten percent so far this year according to the South Korean Morning Post. China in return exports over 500,000 tons of crude oil to North Korea every year, most of it for free. Ninety percent of all trade with North Korea is facilitated now by China. The director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Marcus Noland, stated that despite the sanctions and China’s claims, the Korean currency, the Won, remains stable. A very recent and significant Chinese military build-up on the border between China and North Korea is confusing. There are as many who see it as an attempt to intimidate Kim Jong Un as those who see it as a sign of support for North Korea should war break out on the Korean Peninsula. Perhaps the large military presence only facilitates the very active black-market type of trade that flows back and forth between the two countries and which has seemed to give such a recent infusion to the North Korean economy.

As we examined in a recent article, that new de-facto North Korean economy is making significant progress despite all the external sanctions and recent floods and a new series of droughts. No one can fully explain it, but life in North Korea, although far from pleasant for the masses, is gradually getting more tolerable. Earlier in the year it appeared Kim 52 may be losing support; however, now he seems to have used propaganda along with an easing of economic control to promote greater devotion. North Korea, of course, has a long tradition of indoctrinating its people from childhood on the concept that America, South Korea and Japan are aggressor nations. In America, our historic-attention- span is less than a year while Asian countries think in decades. North Korea and China have very clear memories of the Japanese expansion leading to the Second World War and the American entry into the decolonization of Asia after the war. The ultimate goal of Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, father and apparently himself has always been unification. Despite the way that eclectic behaving, almost comical appearing family dynasty has been perceived, they continually demonstrate a single-minded, patient, calculating unwavering determination toward that long-term goal.

Kim seems to have recently marshaled even greater furor in his people. This growing sense of patriotism and in particular a nostalgia by the North over the Korean War is now displayed in almost every aspect of life and especially in Korean art. Experts are starting to slowly realize that while Kim Jong Un is an unpredictable, possibly unbalanced, and certainly brutal dictator, he is succeeding in doing something few leaders have ever been able to do before and that is simultaneously build the economy while devoting tremendous resources to arms. There is even an official name or doctrine for that in North Korea and it is called “byungjin.” All the while Kim is holding onto power, although is he getting help? Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 53

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 14 Submarine Heads to Sea

In the past 48 hours North Korea’s newest submarine the Gorae has sailed into international waters. This situation has the world watching. What does Kim Jong Un plan?

The vessel is nicknamed “The Whale,” and the prototype has been under sea trials for months, but to date has never sailed outside of North Korean home-waters. The Gorae, (Gorae is Korean for whale) is also called the Sinpo-class after its home- base shipyard. The Gorae or Sinpo is the largest submarine North Korea has built to date. This diesel-powered sub may be based on much larger and earlier Soviet designs. It appears to have one or two built-in launch tubes in its conning tower, each assuming to accommodate a ballistic missile. Analysts presume this new class of North Korean submarine will carry the solid-fuel Pukguksong-1 or as Western Intelligence calls it the KN-11. To date submerged tests of the KN-11 have only taken place from specially designed barges yet they have been very successful. These are submersible test stand barges, one at the Nampo Naval Shipyard on the North Korean west coast and one at the Sinpo South Shipyard on the country’s east coast. Satellite photos show the two special test barges similar in design to what were once used in the Soviet era and were called the PSD-4 submersible missile test stand barges. Missiles being designed for deployment in ballistic missile submarines are out of necessity first tested on submersible barges until the design is proved safe and reliable.

The fear is that the KN-11 may now be ready for an actual sea-launch test. This would put North Korea at a level that the Soviets and Americans were reaching five and a half decades ago when a Cold War arms race was just beginning to get serious. A year after the Cuban Missile Crisis President John F. Kennedy observed a U.S. test of a similar submerged launched solid fueled rocket called the Polaris. Kennedy felt it marked a significant change in a nation’s ability to cope with offensive nuclear weapons. Of course, at that time America and the Soviets had mastered the ability to miniaturize nuclear warheads to fit onto their new submarine launched missiles; which both sides quickly deployed to their submarine fleets. That technological advancement developed out of nuclear testing, not unlike the testing North Korea has been engaged in since 2006.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 13 “Struggle Against U.S. Imperialism Month”

North Korea has once again made the headlines with a missile launch on July 4th which the U.S. agrees has the hallmarks of a true intercontinental ballistic missile test. This is a significant red line that few thought would be crossed so soon. There are many recent developments in North Korea, but little substantive news is being reported by the mainstream press. For example, only minor attention has been paid to the date of June 25th which marked the 65th anniversary of the start of the Korean War. That date also marks the annual DPRK “Struggle Against U.S. Imperialism Month.” On June 29th of this year over 100,000 North Korean citizens gathered in the Kim Il Sung Stadium in Pyongyang to show support for their country. The patriotism and nostalgia over the Korean War is displayed in almost every aspect of life and especially in Korean art. That is nothing new. Patriotic fever and state-directed propaganda continue to aim attention on America and its allies as an ever-eager aggressor. The unsettling variable however is the North Korean rationale that it has the sovereign right to arm itself with nuclear weapons to create a deterrence against that perceived aggression. The recently released 30 Won DPRK stamp depicting North Korean missiles crashing into the U.S. Capital is an extreme yet disturbing example of this growing rhetoric. Kim Jong Un did state at the beginning of this year that his goal was to build an ICBM capable of reaching America. However, truly sorting out what is propaganda from what is strategy is very difficult. Of course, what it really all boils down to is what is going on in the mind of Kim Jong Un. The young leader has a seemingly monolithic control over all levels of North Korean policy. He is always personally engaged in every decision—large or small. Unfortunately, we may never be able to decode his thinking. So, are there any hard facts and figures that we can analyze? 55

A look at the ongoing North Korean military buildup gives a good indication of a possible direction, and the facts are sobering. Of course, everyone is concerned about Kim’s nuclear weapons. Those feared devices have everyone’s attention, although, before looking at their growing nuclear activity, a note bears mentioning about the North Korean conventional forces.

They in fact have a formidable army. Called the Korean People’s Army Ground Force or KPAGF, it numbers 950,000 ground troops. They also claim to have 4,500,000 reserve status soldiers. Estimated at 5,450,000 total military personnel fit for service, this rivals the total number of active U.S. military personnel of 1,281,000 for all the services combined. U.S. reserves and national guard number 801,000. Currently the U.S. has approximately 28,500 military personnel stationed in South Korea with about 150,000 associated American civilians who are either military family members or contractors. Most of those forces make up the Eighth United States field-Army, or EUSA, based in the Yongsan District of Seoul, South Korea.

Numbers alone do not necessarily mean that much. However, the Korean Army is very often taken too lightly. Their weapons may not be as sophisticated as those of U.S. forces, yet, KPAGF fighting spirit and inclination to follow orders may be very high if not fanatical. North Korean conventional weapons are thought adequate for defensive warfare. This includes 5,000 tanks which range from very modern armor all the way to World War Two- era Russian T-34 tanks which are still in service in North Korea. Most significant, the KPAGF field 9,000 varied pieces of artillery and rockets with a large number of decoy artillery sites as well. Again, their arms lack the high-tech quality of modern U.S. Army hardware, but they are believed to be well-maintained and well-suited to their entrenched defensive positions.

Surprisingly, almost half of the North Korean Army is composed of women. Despite being outfitted with mini-skirt parade uniforms designed by Kim Jong Un, these women soldiers are not to be underrated. Many of the women serve in the hundreds of front line artillery units but are increasingly used in other front-line combat units. Army training is intense and is infused with an indoctrination to cast America and its allies as dangerous aggressors. 56

The North Korean air and naval forces are in no way comparable to those of the U.S. and its allies; however, they are making significant progress in submarine-launched ballistic missile technology. Another often overlooked factor is the rugged and mountainous terrain of much of that region and how easy it is for the North Korean forces to use geography to their advantage. The sheer numbers alone of the North Korean forces make the prospect of fighting any large-scale ground war again in Korea unthinkable to western policy makers. The precedent China set when it sent troops to assist North Korea in the last war makes the idea of a ground war even more unattractive. Most strategists agree that war in Korea would be far more challenging than anything we have faced in the Middle East.

The big question now on everyone’s mind is what does North Korea’s nuclear program look like? Some we know, and a lot we simply do not know. It is not an easy subject to study in any detail. However, here is some of what we do know.

The South Korean Ministry of Defense has identified approximately 100 North Korean nuclear-related sites. They believe their nuclear program may utilize 9,000 to 15,000 personnel who are directly involved in the research, development, and testing of nuclear weapons. That number is not too far from the total who worked at the Nevada Test Site years ago although overall it is much smaller than even our World War Two-era Manhattan Project. In this country, the Atomic Energy Commission made great use of civilian contracting firms. That type of system does not exist in North Korea, and their technical people who include scientists and engineers may not all be Korean. There is a great deal we do not know about concerning how much outside assistance North Korea is getting or has benefited from in the past.

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It is believed much of North Korea’s nuclear weapons infrastructure is at a site called the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Center eighty-five kilometers north of Pyongyang. The activities taking place there likely involve fission and fusion research, radioactive isotope processing, neutron physics, nuclear electronics research, reactor design research, radiation shielding research, and nuclear materials research development and processing. Key research centers may also be located near Hamhung, Pyongsong, and Pyongyang itself. The Soviet-era manufactured cyclotron is in Pyongyang.

Experts believe North Korea could have 26 million tons of natural uranium deposits. Ten locations have been identified with uranium ore mining and three more with milling. The key figure that intelligence officials would like to know is how much fissile material and weapons inventory they actually have. The best guess is 33 kilograms of plutonium and 175 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium. That assumption and very rough estimate is based on only one centrifuge facility. More may exist. The annual report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute or SIPR, released this June, states that North Korea likely has at least 20 nuclear warheads.

Other conservative estimates describe a nuclear arsenal of about six to nine plutonium bombs and thirteen to eighteen uranium bombs of unknown yield or physical size. Physical size is important because only a miniaturized standardized weapon could be launched on a missile, yet that is probably exactly what the five previous nuclear tests and many missile launches were striving to develop.

As far as where their nuclear weapons may be stored—there seems to be a total lack of any intelligence. That is a big problem when talking about a preemptive strike against Kim Jong Un. North Korean experts will defy the military opinion and objectively state that there is simply no way to easily take out his nuclear or chemical weapons in a first strike. In fact, many analysts say it could take weeks to give a knockout blow to North Korea in which time they would have many opportunities to use weapons of mass destruction. And even senior military analysts point out that if you knock out all their weapon positions you would still be faced with almost five million armed combatants that may simply refuse to give up and proceed to dig in. History has taught us that despite the most brilliant initial strategies and technology, wars eventually 58 come down to foot soldiers fighting foot soldiers. It would take a huge resolve to fight that type of continued resistance. So, we not only do not have a clear way to start a conflict but no clear place to end one either. If the West has any doubts about the commitment that the average North Korean has in defending his land in a war, Korean art, although very propagandistic, does show the intensity inherent in its people which have been molded from intense indoctrination since childhood.

Ironically, the most vulnerable target is the isolated mountainous Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility. It however is not much of a military target because they have excavated enough tunnels that they could conduct a sixth, seventh or more tests with almost no warning. They also have numerous other sites around the country where existing mines could facilitate a nuclear test with little or no warning.

The whole image of Kim Jong Un and his peculiar nation could be described as comical if the situation was not so serious for the people of the Koreas and the world. As President Trump heads to the G-20 summit in Germany on July 8th, China and Russia have joined together and called for the United States and South Korea to cease joint military exercises as a compromise to Kim Jong Un curbing his nuclear weapon developments. This seems to be a non-starter because new joint U.S. and South Korean missiles exercises have begun. Kim Jong Un has also just announced his nuclear program will not be subject to negotiations. North Korea is becoming a big story— quickly.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 12 Flash Point Lessons of the Past Do Help Us Understand the Present

The growing tensions surrounding the North Korean situation have been referred to by Graham Allison of the Harvard Kennedy School as a “Cuban Missile Crisis in Slow Motion.” Many of our patrons who visit the National Atomic Testing Museum ask about the current nuclear issues with North Korea. Nuclear proliferation is not a term everyone is familiar with, so I find the best way to answer those questions is to provide analogies with America’s own nuclear test program and Cold War-era situations like the Cuban Missile Crisis. Unfortunately, many museum visitors these days under the age of thirty have never heard of the Cold War let alone the Cuban Missile Crisis. It is a stunning fact that few students, even college graduates, have had little exposure to these topics. So, I often use characters in history to quickly explain such topics. History represents more than just dates and terms—it is in essence human stories. Historic personalities and their trials and tribulations make it relevant. Thus, talking about people is a good way to make it simple. The figure of President John F. Kennedy is a good example.

President Kennedy displayed a most remarkable appreciation for history. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, he felt a sense of overwhelming responsibility and caution, trying not to carelessly rush toward war despite what virtually all his senior military chiefs were urging. He had read a book that had come out just prior to that October crisis called “The Guns of August” by Barbara Tuckman. The book demonstrated how a flash point had caused a series of events to spiral out of control among the heads of state of Europe and through numerous miscalculations, caused a great world war. During the nuclear crisis in Cuba, Kennedy repeatedly cautioned his advisers to utilize the lessons of the past to better understand the present.

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We all know the current situation in North Korea continues to grow tense and with good reason. Lessons of history illustrate this. North Korea is the only country to conduct nuclear tests in the 21st Century. To date, they have detonated five devices. A sixth nuclear test is thought to now be overdue. In the last month, they have also made good on their promise to conduct one ballistic missile test per week.

Beyond this, their work in chemical weapons is equally disturbing and has analogies to the rush to build similar weapons during the First World War. Recently a North Korean scientist, who is withholding his name, defected to Finland claiming the Kim Jong Un regime routinely experiments on its own citizens with biological and chemical weapons. Other defectors have told similar stories—specifically about children with mental and physical disabilities being used in chemical experiments. Another defector, Im Cheon Yong, told South Korean Intelligence:

“If you want to graduate from this academy, you need to learn how to confuse the enemy without revealing your own forces, how to carry out assassinations, how to use chemical weapons and so on. And then we have what they call ‘field learning’. For the biological and chemical warfare tests, we needed ‘objects.’ At first, they used the chemical agents on mice and showed us how they died. Then we watched the instructors carrying out the tests on humans to show us how a person dies. I saw it with my own eyes.”

Im stated that three military-run facilities were used in the tests, as well as a camp near a political prison near the city of Hyanghari. Another defector recounted that those considered “undesirable” are subjected to medical experiments such as “dissection of body parts.” It is believed in the last year Pyongyang carried out a dozen large-scale exercises testing biological and chemical weapons on human subjects. Intelligence gained from defecting soldiers estimate that North Korea is capable of producing 4,500 tons of chemical weapons per year. It is believed they have shared their technology with Syria and Iran.

Another lesson of history which impressed President Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis concerned the complex ins and outs of international politics. Certainly, the growing web of international sanctions aimed against North Korea have a perplexing nature.

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Russia, for example, seems to defy calls for increased pressure on North Korea. It’s not only business as usual between the two countries but commerce is increasing. Reuters reports a new ferry service opened in May with the North Korean flagged Mangyongbong, which now regularly docks at the port of Vladivostok.

Russian railway officials are now discussing upgrades and repairs to the Rajin-Hasan railway, which links Russia to the Korean peninsula. The Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai reports that Russia and North Korea are expanding immigration. North Korean laborers living in Russia are a significant source of foreign currency for Kim Jong Un who helps facilitate those already 40,000 workers as virtual slave labor in the Russian timber and construction industry.

Even though Russia’s trade with North Korea is rising by more than $130 million, it remains small in comparison to the trade still going on with China which approximates $6.6 billion for North Korea. Despite sanctions, overall, trade between North Korea and China is increasing as well. According to published figures the increase is at seventy-three percent so far this year. While coal exports into China are “officially” decreasing as China is supposedly sanctioning this key source of DPRK revenue in an attempt to send Kim Jong Un a message to curb its nuclear program—coal shipments to Russia are actually increasing.

China however is still the big player. It facilitates 90 percent of North Korea’s world trade and supplies it with the bulk of its oil. China has continually warned it could cut off oil deliveries to North Korea if they continue nuclear and ballistic missile tests, but this has yet to happen. All the while Russia has alluded to possibly filling that vital gap for North Korea if needed. 62

China, like Russia, often display a verbal hardline with North Korea and then does the opposite in trade relations. For example, North Korea’s exports of iron ore to China rose ten percent this year according to the South Korean Morning Post. The director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Marcus Noland, said that despite the sanctions and China’s claim it is cracking down on North Korea, the Korean currency, the Won, remains stable. As we examined in a recent article, a new de-facto North Korean economy is making significant progress despite all the external sanctions and recent floods and famine. No one can fully explain it, but life in North Korea, although far from pleasant for the masses, is gradually getting more tolerable. Experts are starting to slowly realize that while Kim Jong Un is an unpredictable, possibly unbalanced, and certainly brutal dictator, he is succeeding in doing something few leaders have ever been able to do before and that is simultaneously build the economy while devoting tremendous resources to arms.

I quoted Graham Allison at the beginning of this article. Allison is the director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans. He is a New York Times contributor and author of a new book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” Allison uses the parallels of history dating all the way back to ancient Greece to show that when a rising power challenges a ruling one, a pattern of great stress and sometimes war results. Specifically, Allison is referring to China, and he points out that America has already fought China once during the Korean War when by a miscalculation, General Douglas MacArthur after vigorously reclaiming territory scared Mao Tse Tung into directly aiding the North Koreans. Technically the Korean War never officially ended. To this day we have had sixty-four years of an uneasy armistice.

Many students of history are now starting to be more inclined to use an analogy with the First World War over that of the Cuban Missile Crisis. As I stated in an earlier update, the historical analogies are many and sobering. Germany from World War I is an excellent analogy.

In 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II presided over a Germany poised to become the most productive country on the globe. Their industrial capacity was set to outstrip Britain and all other countries. At the time, it exported a huge variety of goods all over the world. German Krupp factories provided much of the high-grade steel for American railroads. Construction firms in this country and around the world imported German concrete mix because of its superiority and purity. Germany worked on all economic levels and produced cheap tin toys that proliferated in almost every country of the world which brought huge revenues back into Germany. They were leaders in every field of science and were mastering artificial fertilizers by capturing nitrogen from the air which literally revolutionized Europe’s ability to feed itself in the wake of growing populations. (German Fritz Haber, a close colleague of Albert Einstein, created the Haber-Bosch process which synthesized ammonia from nitrogen and hydrogen gas which eventually half the world’s population came to depend upon for food production because of its ability to produce nitrogen fertilizers. He also became the father of chemical weapons via that same research, 63 as well as made Germany’s conventional munitions industry self-sufficient.) Germany, most importantly, boasted one of the largest merchant marine fleets in history. That growing economy prosperity promised Germany the realization of long-dreamt social programs that would have outstripped even what Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson longed for.

Like Kim Jong Un, Kaiser Wilhelm II gained a reputation for a swaggering militaristic stance and flamboyant if not irrational public statements. Also like Kim he succeeded in building a vast military and arms industry while simultaneously building his economy.

Although Kaiser Wilhelm II led a country that could have soon rivaled any peacetime economy on earth, in a day’s time with one fatal miscalculation he gave all that prosperity and security up to follow the advice of his generals and mobilize to join the war in Europe. War soon led to the loss of the bulk of his merchant fleet which had taken years to build. Germany’s destruction followed, not once but twice in one generation. To this day Germany, and even the victorious nations of Europe, are still paying the debts of two world wars.

Kim Jong Un does not lead a prosperous nation which is even more reason for concern. His country, however, is guaranteed destruction if he chooses a war involving nuclear or even chemical weapons. The problem is he can potentially cause a lot havoc before he is taken down and the role that other powers might play poses a big question. Hopefully, Korea will not become a flash point for war because many senior analysts are starting to agree, war is simply becoming too easy just as it was in 1914.

It is for that reason I feel our recent Distinguished Lecture Series with speaker Dr. Siegfried S. Hecker spoke so prophetically. He is certainly one of the most knowledgeable men on the North Korean situation and someone who has been there many times. Dr. Hecker stated that war cannot be an option. Talks on some level with Kim Jong Un must be sought because living with the hair-trigger situation we now have is simply too dangerous to tolerate. Flash points, as history wisely points out, are something of which to be cautious. We must use lessons of the past to better understand the present.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 64

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 11 History Repeating Itself — Part 1

Three times in the last three weeks North Korea has conducted successful medium-range missile tests demonstrating a steady improvement in its potential capacity to deliver offensive weapons. The fear is, of course, they will soon be able to arm their new missiles with atomic warheads.

What North Korea is currently doing parallels the United States’ own atomic weapons and ballistic missile programs back in the 1950s and early 1960s. The historical analogies are in fact sobering. An even more important analogy is that at that time we were also developing thermonuclear weapons. This is another concern—that North Korea may be on the verge of producing a hydrogen bomb or some sort of hybrid.

The New York Times recently quoted Professor Siegfried S. Hecker of Stanford University on this subject. He is an experienced voice on North Korea’s weapons’ development and a longtime National Atomic Testing Museum supporter and recent guest lecturer. Professor Hecker stated, “I can’t imagine they’re not working on a true thermonuclear weapon.” Dr. Hecker, however, cautions that there is no definitive evidence yet.

Atomic weapons are fission devices that have explosive yields measured in the kilotons such as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well as moderately larger ones tested at the Nevada and Pacific test sites in the 1950s. These A-bombs utilize enriched uranium or plutonium to create nuclear fission—splitting heavy atoms in chain reactions. H-bombs utilize the principle of fusion, fusing two light atoms into one utilizing deuterium and tritium. They are actually triggered by an atom bomb. The explosive yields of hydrogen or thermonuclear devices are typically measured in the megatons. In fact, atomic weapons have limits as to how large an explosive yield they can be made to produce, whereas hydrogen weapons have no theoretical limit.

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Making H-bombs is no easy task. The first step in developmental testing is the process called “boosting” or injecting a tiny amount of thermonuclear fuel into the core of an atom bomb which increases its explosive yield. The U.S. first did this in 1951 in two nuclear tests in Operation Greenhouse on Enewtak. Gregory S. Jones of the RAND Corporation has stated that it is possible North Korea has already worked on a boosted-fission test. So, history may very well be repeating itself in this category as well.

In 1954 we tested the first true hydrogen bomb in the Bravo test of Operation Castle on Bikini Island. That device weighed over twenty-one tons, so it would have been impossible to deliver with most aircraft or any kind of missile. Engineers and physicists kept working. Further testing lead to miniaturization of the H-bomb just as it did of the A-bomb following World War Two.

Many experts are starting to agree that North Korea has already made progress in reducing the size of their atomic weapons. Recent intelligence analysis suggests their initial devices approximated the five-foot-width-size of our 1945 era atomic weapons. Now, however, we are seeing images, if authentic, approximating something like the size of a basketball. This is where we were in this country by the early 1960s when we finally married atomic weapons to ballistic missiles. Then we soon accomplished the same with thermonuclear devices. So, will North Korea follow that same path?

The North could also be opting for another stage of nuclear weapons development called “layering.” This is basically wrapping layers of thermonuclear fuel and uranium around an atomic bomb. That would result in burning more hydrogen than boosting. Testing years ago proved this could make a common A-bomb twenty-five percent more powerful.

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It may not be a matter of if but when their nuclear weapons will be ready to be installed on the tip of a missile. It is for that reason that the international community is now so concerned about North Korean missile development.

The point of this concern is that North Korea already has atomic devices. Realistically, they can or soon will be able to weaponize and deploy them for offense or defensive use. On the Korean Peninsula, atomic weapons would not only serve as a deterrence to anyone invading North Korea but would offer them an effective offensive capacity if they were indeed ill-advised enough to try and unify the Koreas. Thermonuclear weapons, however, are a game changer. They are so large that such devices have no real use tactically speaking. They would however serve a formidable threat if miniaturized and mated to an intercontinental ballistic missile, something that Kim Jong Un has clearly stated he wants to accomplish. This, in his mind, would offer his country the ultimate defense or deterrence to an invasion or U.S.- sponsored strike. Having even such a few weapons would make it very hard for a preemptive strike against North Korea because there would be no guarantee we could get all the weapons in a first strike. In other words, currently Kim Jong Un could devastate his local Asian region with atomic weapons or even his conventional weapons for that matter. However, with intercontinental ballistic missiles and thermonuclear weapons he could threaten large North American population centers. Therefore, it gives Kim Jong Un a post-strike or second strike retaliatory capability that would be so severe no one would logically risk inciting any move against the North. Again, it all comes down to not just the nuclear devices, but the delivery systems which in this case would be missiles.

North Korea’s effort to build an intercontinental ballistic missile or ICBM is very analogous to our attempts in the late 1950s to perfect the long-range Atlas Rocket. That was a two-year project from start to finish; however, North Korea is moving considerably slower because they do not have the same technological resources to draw upon. They are, however, making steady progress. We tend to forget it’s not only North Korean nuclear weapons that are contravened by U.N. resolutions but ballistic missiles as well. The most recent missile launches, just like their recent nuclear tests, are not rebellious acts of saber- rattling or posturing to leverage an easing of sanctions—not that Kim Jong Un does not welcome that impression. Instead, and unfortunately, the missile tests and nuclear trials demonstrate methodical research and development attempting to strive toward engineering advancements just as we did very successfully in this country years ago.

Let’s look at some of these missile systems. The North Korean “KN” missile systems (as referred to in the intelligence communities) represent a weapons development project that deserves watching. It is by no means an intercontinental ballistic missile system. These are medium-range missiles, yet they do present a significant threat to the region. The KN-11 poses the most significant development and is known in North Korea as the Pukguksong-1 or Bukgeukseong-1. The weapon is of such significance because it is an advancing form of a solid-fueled, submarine-launched ballistic missile. The world watched close-up images of the KN-11 at the recent Pyongyang military parade on April 16th. 67

The KN-11 appears to be a descendant from the Soviet-era R-27/SS-N-6 Serb SLBM. Originally, this derivative had a liquid-fuel propellant but made the more sophisticated jump to solid-fuel. Solid-fuel, of course, is critical to developing a submarine-launched device as well as making land variants more mobile and launch ready. To date the KN-11 has had about a half-dozen successful tests, some of these being submerged tests signifying a significant technical advancement.

This is disturbing when coupled with satellite imagery which suggests North Korea is preparing to put into production a new type of ballistic missile submarine. It is nicknamed “The Whale,” and the prototype is under sea trials now. The Gorae, (Gorae is Korean for whale) is also called the Sinpo-class after its home-base shipyard. The Gorae is the largest submarine North Korea has built to date. This new development in a large- capacity ocean-going submarine is very disturbing to Western Intelligence. The diesel-powered sub may be based on past Soviet designs and appears to have one or two built-in launch tubes in its conning tower, each assuming to accommodate a ballistic missile.

The vessel’s displacement is estimated at 2,000 to 3,000 tons with a length around 200 feet. The “Whale” is still significantly smaller than Russian designs like the Kilo class. If truly capable of firing ballistic missiles, it would represent a significant advancement for the Korean People’s Navy (KPN).

This would put North Korea at a level that the Soviets and Americans were reaching five and a half decades ago when a Cold War arms race was just beginning to get serious and as we approached the Cuban Missile Crisis. Many have even compared the current North Korean situation akin to a “Cuban Missile Crisis in slow motion.” A year after the Cuban Missile Crisis President John F. Kennedy witnessed a U.S. test of a similar submerged launched solid fueled rocket called the Polaris. Kennedy felt it marked a significant change in a nation’s ability to strategize for nuclear war. Analysts presume this new class of North Korean submarine will carry the KN-11.

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To date the submerged tests of the KN- 11 have taken place from specially designed barges. These are submersible test stand barges, one at the Nampo Naval Shipyard on the North Korean west coast and one at the Sinpo South Shipyard on the country’s east coast. Satellite photos show these two special test barges similar in design to what were once used in the Soviet era and were called the PSD-4 submersible missile test stand barges. Missiles being designed for deployment in ballistic missile submarines are out of necessity first tested on submergible barges until the design is proved safe and reliable.

By April of 2016, tests demonstrated the KN-11 fully evolved into a solid-fuel missile with a range of about 900 kilometers. Solid-fuel rockets tend to have somewhat shorter range, but they can be readied to fire much faster than liquid fuel rockets which take some preparation. The land variant of the KN-11 successfully test flew this year in February of 2017 and is now known as the KN-15 to intelligence or the Pukguksong -2 in North Korea.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 10 History Repeating Itself — Part 2

The KN-15 has a slightly greater range of 1,200 to 2,000 kilometers if fired on a low or “depressed” trajectory. This missile is in fact of such note because it is fired from a tracked transporter erector launcher which is reusable after launch. This provides the missile system greater mobility in the difficult North Korean terrain, very little of which has paved roadways.

The latest successful test on May 21st is believed to be a KN-15 which most news agencies are commonly referring to only as the Pukguksong-2. It reached an altitude of 348 miles traveling on a trajectory which covered 780 miles according to the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. What is disturbing about this test is that apparently the missile transmitted back electronic signals that helped check the projectile’s position and steering functions which means its accuracy could be very high. Kim Dong Yub, defense analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul said that this design could be a key steppingstone toward building a true intercontinental ballistic missile just as some early American pre-Atlas designs proved. Again, an interesting historical analogy.

North Korea has followed up the launch with an announcement that it is ready to start mass producing the KN-15. Most defense analysts say that they would be hard pressed to produce more than fifty in the next twelve months. Although that number could match the number of nuclear devices the North has a year from now.

An earlier missile test on Saturday, April 29th involved what is believed to be a KN-17 or Hwasong-12 which is another new land-based missile fired from a mobile launcher. This is an intermediate-range liquid-fueled ballistic missile and may also be a 70 stepping stone candidate for an intercontinental ballistic missile. Analysts debate if this might be designed as an anti-ship missile because it has distinctive forward fins for terminal guidance. The KN-17 could be the new missile displayed on a tracked transporter erector launcher at the Pyongyang military parade on April 16th of this year. On May14th the KN-17 again successfully test flew. This missile cannot hit the U.S. mainland but is believed to be able to threaten Guam where we have significant military assets.

North Korea has longer range missiles, and they have even put satellites into orbit. However, they do not seem to have a standardize long-range missile like the KN series ready for production. In addition to that—sending a weapon on an intercontinental ballistic missile involves working out reentry of the weapon. That proved a significant challenge for early American and Russian designers in the 1950s. There is the possibility that North Korea has the capability of exploding a nuclear weapon in the upper atmosphere causing an Electromagnetic Pulse or EMP.

This, however, is discounted by most experts because in order to cause a significant disruption it would almost certainly have to be a very large device on the order of a thermonuclear weapon of many megatons. At the end of our atmospheric testing period prior to the Limited Test Ban Treaty of 1963 which moved American and Soviet testing underground, we were just beginning to experiment with what a nuclear weapon could do if exploded extremely high up in the atmosphere. To this day there are many differing opinions on how severe man-made EMPs could be. We know natural solar outbursts have the potential of causing significant problems, but the amount of energy would have to be on a huge scale, whether man-made or natural.

So the big question is—could North Korea truly be planning on arming its missiles with nuclear warheads and if so, why? Professor B.R. Myers of South Korea’s Dongseo University points out that The Kim family dynasty has made nuclear weapons and missiles part of its country’s national identity. This seems true even for the peasants in the fields. From a historical analogy, it is not all that different than the pride and admiration Americans had in our own country in the early days of nuclear testing. Atomic bombs were certainly part of the pop culture of 1950s America. Mastering the atom provided a sense of national pride for us years ago just as it does for North Koreans today.

Professor Myers also stresses that North Korea prides itself on an official ideology of self- reliance known as “juche.” This has been symbolic of the North Korean people since they strove to gain less reliance on China in the late 1950s. Professor Myers is somewhat controversial in that he sees the recent rise in tensions on the Korean Peninsula as indicative of a strategy by Kim Jong Un beyond just defense. Professor Myers states in regard to this:

“Why is it doing the one thing that could cause the U.S. to strike North Korea, even at the risk of South Korean fatalities? The only logical answer is that it’s pursuing something greater than mere security—and there’s only one logical conclusion as to what that is.” 71

Professor Myers feels Kim Jong Un seeks to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington. Unification may even be his ultimate goal as it was for Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung. Iconic mosaics in the Pyongyang metro depicts Kim Il Sung watching over a scene of reunification. This makes a lot of sense considering the fact South Koreans recently went to the polls this May to elect a new president for the vacancy caused by the impeachment and indictment of Park Geun Hye. Analysts warn the new government formed under the center-left South Korean party leader Moon Jae In will not be as conservative or pro-Washington as the former. So, Kim Jong Un may be cleverer than we give him credit for. Even recent remarks by President Trump reflects some grudging respect. Trump in fact compared the ongoing tensions between Kim and Washington as a game of chess. The problem of course with any chess game is that someone has to eventually lose.

We do know the growing class of young professionals in South Korea have little interest in a showdown between North Korea and Washington. They recently went to the polls with a clear message. South Korea’s business and technical professionals want renewed talks with North Korea and are critical of the growing United States’ military presence.

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North Korea has been a significant issue since the close of war on the peninsula in 1953 when combatants agreed on an armistice but not a peace treaty. To this day that war remains on hold. To date, thirteen United States Presidents have had to deal with tensions on the Korean Peninsula. It is also a large question mark if China will or even can put effective pressure on North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to ease his nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions. That is clearly the hope of the Trump administration. China, however, has always looked at the Korean situation with mixed emotions and priorities. China no more wants war on the Korean Peninsula than the United States, although China is not prepared to see North Korea fail as a state. The reality of the situation is North Korea is an effective buffer for China, preventing a unified Korea and forming a wide zone from South Korea and Japan. The same is also true for Russia.

On May 23rd sixty-four Democratic legislators urged President Trump to seek diplomacy with North Korea. They affirmed in a letter that he would need congressional approval for any military strike against the North. The sixty-four Democrats signed that letter expressing those concerns which symbolize the sixty-four years since the armistice ending war in Korea. Representative John Conyers Jr. of Michigan, the last Democrat in Congress to have served in that war, warned of an “unimaginable conflict” if we have an inconsistent or unpredictable policy toward Kim Jong Un.

The National Atomic Testing Museum had the great honor of welcoming Dr. Siegfried S. Hecker to our Distinguished Lecture Series on May 25th. Dr. Hecker is a research professor at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies as well as a former Director of Los Alamos National Laboratories. He served as co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Co-Operation for five years and has made more trips to North Korea than any other nuclear scientist. He gave us a unique update on North Korea at our lecture. Dr. Hecker stated that there are now no military options available to us in the Korean situation. The danger, in fact, is that this has become a hair-trigger situation. He urged the current administration to find a way to initiate talks with Kim Jong Un. The simple fact is North Korea has become a nuclear power and as in the days of the Cold War with the Soviets and Chinese, nuclear weapons have for better or worse become a deterrent. Another way of saying it could perhaps be as former EG&G president Barney O’Keefe always paraphrased, a weapon that holds all sides as nuclear hostages.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 73

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 9 Byungjin

North Korea continues to defy explanation. Despite all expectations to the contrary, Kim Jong Un’s regime has made steady and significant progress in both nuclear weapon and ballistic missile developments since he assumed leadership in 2011. The successful KN-17 missile test this past Sunday exemplifies that. Increasing international sanctions have seemingly failed to slow what is also obviously a very expensive arms buildup. Equally surprising is the success of a parallel program to increase economic development. This mutual emphasis on both weapons and the economy is called “byungjin.” None of this should be happening because the United Nations and many governments like the United States have worked to isolate and cripple North Korea. Yet, it is happening.

We know the capital, Pyongyang, has seen a construction boom; however, it is also commonly understood that this is North Korea’s showcase and is virtually the only area of the DPRK that foreign visitors are allowed to see. So, it is expected that progress would be highlighted there. However, something dramatic is clearly going on in Pyongyang because its once empty streets are now bustling with automobiles as well as growing markets. Carwashes, something never before seen in Pyongyang, have emerged with customers who have the disposable income to actually keep this new economic anomaly growing.

Defectors are now telling a similar story about the North Korean countryside and villages. A growing number of private markets are emerging and this private enterprise is being allowed to expand by Kim Jong Un who then in turn taxes the revenue. Satellite images confirm that since 2010, over 440 of what appear to be government-approved markets are in operation. It is estimated out of a population of twenty-five million, one million are employed in these markets with forty percent of the population involved in this trade. A North Korean defector, Kim Nam Chol, stated that the population has been forced into

74 this market trade simply to survive because traditional agriculture is so unproductive that people can’t survive on it. The new markets however seem to have done far more than alleviate a long pattern of starvation.

Two facts are relevant to this new economic development. First, these markets are not simply barter economies but generate the use and exchange of currency which as previously noted is in turn taxed by Kim Jong Un’s regime. The second relevant fact is that eighty percent of this trade seems to be generated from the unofficial movement of goods across the Chinese border. The products are not exclusively Chinese in origin and in fact are reported to frequently involve American goods which must entail a complicated history of migration. So after years of economic crackdowns on North Korea, American Coca-Cola can still be found in North Korea. This unique system is called black-market by traditional economists, yet it is becoming very standard practice in North Korea. It is certainly far outside the control of international sanctions.

Official and more traditional Chinese trade as well as supposed cooperation on sanctions is also of significant note. The website 38 North, run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University in Washington posted this on May 15th:

“Nonetheless, flows of North Korean raw materials to China continue: Chinese customs data indicates China’s trade with North Korea rose in the first quarter of 2017 by more than 18 percent over the same period in 2016. Although iron ore is banned by UNSCR 2321, China has invoked the ‘livelihood purposes’ exemption, to justify continuing imports. Moreover, a report published earlier this year suggested that forensics on North Korean missile debris indicate that Chinese firms have been involved in sourcing foreign components used to build North Korea missiles. These and other examples reinforce international suspicions that Beijing is deliberately lax in enforcing sanctions above a ‘red line’ that it fears, if crossed, will trigger a North Korean provocation.”

Despite sanctions on North Korean exports of coal, China still facilitates almost all of their oil imports and industrial trade. Recent news reports suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin is now also exploring oil exports to North Korea and is opening up a ferry service between North Korea’s Rajin coastal province on the Sea of Japan and the Russian port of Vladivostok. The service will carry 200 passengers and 1,000 tons of cargo six times a month. A railway is being explored by state-owned Russian Railways between Rajin and Khasan.

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North Korea’s most important trade with Russia is human. They export laborers to Russia with ninety percent of their wages being taxed by Pyongyang. The United Nations estimates exported labor accounts for $2 billion dollars of Kim Jong Un’s national income. The Moscow Times reports that: “According to the Russian Ministry of Labor, in 2015, more than 47,000 North Koreans were working in Russia. Local businesses purportedly favor the foreign laborers for their diligence and hard work.” International human rights agencies characterize these exported laborers more as “slave labor.”

All this said, Russia has reportedly proposed sanctions on the sale of Russian ships and helicopters to Pyongyang. If signed by Vladimir Putin, the Russian sanctions will also stop the import of North Korean copper, nickel, silver and zinc. This may, however, be deceptive. In 2014 Russia forgave eleven billion in North Korean debt dating back to the Soviet era. Defense analysts point out that relations are strong between Russia and the DPRK. The fact remains, North Korea is just as important of a buffer state for Russia as it is for China.

South Korea may also prove hesitant to sanction Kim Jong Un. Recently, in the middle of a decisive election, the United States completed the deployment of the Thaad Missile system ahead of schedule not only to China’s displeasure but to the deep reservations of the center-left South Korean party leader Moon Jae In. Moon emerged as the victorious candidate in the presidential election on Tuesday, May 9th. In fact, one factor which undoubtedly expedited Moon’s election centered around the U.S asking South Korea right in the middle of this critical election to pay the one-billion-dollar price tag for the expensive missile system. The timing of that request proved extremely awkward. Moon had already said his first priority will be to have a meeting with President Donald Trump, but he continues to make it clear that he intends to stand up to the U.S. and also seek a more conciliatory posture with Kim Jong Un, including the possibility of trade and economic cooperation. The desire for closer cooperation does not seem affected by the successful launch on Sunday, May 14th of a KN-17 which is likely the new missile displayed on a tracked transporter erector launcher at the recent Pyongyang military parade. Although it may be for that very reason Kim Jong Un has delayed the long awaited sixth nuclear test for so long now, so that the election outcome would facilitate a division between Seoul and Washington and of course most favor his own plans for byungjin.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 8 Historical Perspective Diplomacy

The exhibits and programs at the National Atomic Testing Museum utilize lessons of the past to better understand the present. The past provides an excellent teaching tool because history so often repeats itself. In studying the very relevant contemporary topic of nuclear proliferation in North Korea, our Museum illustrates a number of interesting parallels.

The first involves one of the early priorities for nuclear testing in the early days of the Cold War. There were actually many reasons, but making the relatively primitive early nuclear devices into standardized and reliable weapons of a more practical size and weight were key. That took experimentation which necessitated trial and error and obviously testing. Both the United States and the then—Soviet Union engaged in nuclear weapons development and refinement in the 1950s which brought them to a state in the early 1960s where each side had developed nuclear weapons which translated into land and sea-born nuclear missile systems. That is simply a fact of history now. The relevant point is that both sides by that period had also developed thermonuclear weapons which is also a goal North Korea claims it is working towards. That series of events, to a degree, facilitated the weapons available during the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. Some analysts say that early Cold War crisis presents similarities or rather a “Cuban Missile Crisis in slow motion” comparable to our current state of tensions with North Korea. While history may not always exactly repeat itself, it does provide us a basis for careful reflection. Certainly, this is the time for cautious deliberation.

After five nuclear tests and years of missile testing, North Korea is in a very similar position to where the two great super powers were in the early 1950s. It is for that reason the situation is now so tense and no one wants them to progress another five years in this historical analogy. It is, in fact, an extremely relevant scenario and tensions are rising.

The Chinese news agency Chosun is now reporting the movement of 150,000 People’s Republic of China troops heading to their border with North Korea in the event of “unseen circumstances.” President Trump, of course, hopes China will exert pressure on North Korea to stop its headlong rush into nuclear and ballistic missile development. The President has even spoken again to China’s leader Xi Jinping as late as this past Sunday about enhanced trade deals should such diplomacy be productive.

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Some analysts are however skeptical and point out that a good deal of the trucks and trailers displayed in the recent April15th Pyongyang military parade were supplied by China. They also provide North Korea with ninety percent of its oil and fifty percent of its food supplies, and there is no indication that any of those vital resources have been cut. Earlier in the year China claimed it cut imports of North Korea’s chief revenue generating export, coal; however, there seems some evidence now that China may be facilitating North Korean coal sales by indirect means.

China, nevertheless, is the United States’ best hope for diplomacy. Conflict on the Korean Peninsula is no more in the interest of China than the United States or it allies, South Korea and Japan. So, no one is saying war is imminent.

Meanwhile the USS Carl Vinson battle group is finally approaching the Korean Peninsula. Kim Jong Un has in turn boasted that he will strike the battlegroup if it is deployed near Korean waters. Over the weekend North Korea detained another U.S. citizen bringing the total to three now. Today, April 24, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, warned that Kim Jong Un is exhibiting “paranoid” behavior with his ongoing barrage of rhetoric. She stated that if North Korea takes advantage of their April 25th celebrations to launch other missiles or fire its long-anticipated sixth nuclear test detonation, “I think then the president steps in and decides what’s going to happen.”

Simultaneously, Russian trains are moving troops and equipment including helicopters to their eleven-mile border with North Korea. Recently the United States and Russia clashed over the language used in a U.N. security council statement drafted by the U.S., condemning the latest North Korean missile tests. Japan currently is making plans to evacuate citizens in South Korea should the situation worsen.

It can only be hoped that leaders of the three major super powers today will use lessons of the past to guide them wisely. Diplomacy is still the preferred option and may in fact be the only option. Senior military analysts cannot even envision a military option available to United States’ forces because the collateral damage to South Korea would be so great. In addition, the terrain and even the conventional North Korea forces are extremely formidable. Over twenty-six million South Korean civilians and thirty thousand U.S. military personnel and family members are within twenty-five miles of the frontline border area between North and South. Hopefully events will not escalate further on April 25th, the emotionally-charged North Korean celebration of the 85th anniversary of the creation of the Korean People's Army. This is a significant period and a new page of history is unfolding. History should guide us wisely.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 7 Sixth Nuclear Test

The world is still watching for Kim Jong Un’s regime to detonate its sixth nuclear test. News media prepared for that event this past Saturday. That April 15th, marked the emotionally- charged 105th anniversary birth-date of Kim Il Sung, the founding president of modern-day North Korea and first ruler of the Kim family dynasty. It is, however, as CNN commentators stated, “not a matter of if— but when.”

The underlining feeling of the heightened media attention seems to be that the Trump administration might launch a retaliatory military strike if indeed a new nuclear test takes place. The failed North Korean missile launch this weekend did not cause as much concern. Neither did the premier of new missiles in the April15th Pyongyang military parade, yet commentators are still speculating as to what might happen if Kim Jong Un pulls off a successful sixth nuclear detonation.

The one pertinent point no news media or government official appears to be talking about is the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty. Article 2 of that treaty “guarantees” mutual assistance between China and North Korea if any country or coalition of countries attacks either of them. It is not known if China still intends to honor that treaty, but it has been extended twice and is technically valid until 2021. It is also true that same treaty states that each of the two signatories must safeguard peace and security. In fact, when the treaty was last renewed, China warned North Korea that it must take responsibility for its behavior. . The obligation that the treaty imposes on China is therefore debatable. It is also a large question mark if China will or even can put effective pressure on Kim Jong Un to ease his nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions. That is clearly the hope of the Trump administration. China, however, has always looked at the Korean situation with mixed emotions and priorities. China no more wants war on the Korean Peninsula than the United States although China is not prepared to see North Korea fail as a state. The reality of the situation is North Korea is an effective buffer for China, preventing a unified Korea and forming a wide zone from South Korea and Japan. It will remain to be seen what happens with this ongoing problem in nuclear proliferation. Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 [email protected] 79

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 6 The World Is Now Watching Final Preparation for A Nuclear Test

The world is now watching hour by hour while a new nuclear test is expected in North Korea. This would make their sixth detonation under the snow-capped Mount Mantap at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. The website 38 North, run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University in Washington posted today:

“New commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from March 28 shows a heightened level of activity over the past few days. Despite the recent snowfall, there has been continued pumping of water out of the North Portal, presumably to keep the tunnels dry for communications and monitoring equipment; the removal of material (probably rubble) and dumping on the tailings pile immediately to the east of the portal; and the probable removal of one or more vehicles or equipment trailers from in front of the portal. This activity is consistent with previous reports, while the rest of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site has been generally quiet. However, there is now one vehicle and a large contingent (70-100) of people standing in formation or watching in the courtyard of the Main Administrative Area. Such a gathering hasn’t been seen since January 4, 2013, which was followed by a nuclear test on February 12.”

Other analysts have pointed out satellite photos are now showing cables laid out on the ground which is indicative from past experience of final preparations for a nuclear test.

Options

Are there any options beyond sanctions and diplomacy to contend with North Korea’s growing threat? Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton recently stated that we are quickly running out of time. He feels the situation is extremely serious. On the other hand, Christopher Hill, former ambassador to South Korea under President George W. Bush from 2004 to 2005, recently stated that there are just no good military options. Most agree that even taking minor pre-emptive military action could lead to a very deadly response from their prolific conventional weaponry. They in fact have the fourth largest

80 standing army in the world. This feeling of impending threat coupled with an inability to take action is not a new development.

History of Illusion

North Korea, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), has been a significant issue since the close of war in Korea in 1953 when combatants agreed on an armistice but not a peace treaty. To this day that war remains on hold.

North Korea did not really gain its own true autonomy until the last Chinese troops withdrew in 1958. Prior to that Party Leader/Prime Minister Kim Il Sung resisted numerous attempts by both China and Russia to manipulate and even depose him. Although, he had earned a following and respect after years of resistance to the Japanese occupation of Korea and remained a determined leader into the 1950s.

The gradual rise of North Korea to a nuclear power began in 1956. In that year the Soviet Union started training North Korean scientists and engineers in basic principles of nuclear fission which served as the genesis of their nuclear program. Kim Il Sung had asked both China and the Soviets for help in making a nuclear weapon but were refused. Instead, the USSR decided to help North Korea develop a “nuclear energy program” which included that training of scientists and engineers. In 1959 North Korea and the Soviet Union signed a nuclear cooperation agreement. In 1962 they completed construction of a research reactor at what became known as the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center. They also began mining uranium ore.

By 1974 Kim Jong Il, son of Kim Il Sung, gradually assumed key political offices although Kim Il Sung remained the primary leader until his death in 1994. Both father and son favored nuclearization. Kim Il Sung would never forget the implied threat from U.S. nuclear weapons which helped force the North Koreans to the bargaining table in 1953. The current leader of Korea, Kim Jong Un, had these lessons impressed upon him both by his father and grandfather. Since assuming power on December 28, 2011, following Kim Il Sung’s death, he has committed North Korea to nuclearization. It is now an integral part of the national identity of North Korea, and is impressed upon every citizen.

By the mid1980s North Korea was already well on the way to that path when it mastered a significant enrichment capability as a result of Soviet technical assistance. In 1984 they completed construction of a radiochemical laboratory which served as a reprocessing plant where plutonium could be produced. The next year the DPRK sent a deceptive signal by signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which had been signed by the Soviets and Americans in 1968. By 1993 they were clearly not complying with the Nuclear Non- 81

Proliferation Treaty and withdrew after considerable controversy with the United Nations and International Atomic Energy Agency. They then suspended their initial withdrawal.

In the 1990s North Korea gained access to Pakistan's nuclear technology. This fact became known a decade later, but we still do not know the exact details. Undoubtedly, Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, sold sensitive technology to North Korea and apparently other rogue nations. (Pakistan developed their own nuclear weapons during the 1970s and 1980s to attain parity with India all the while receiving significant economic and military assistance from the United States.)

On October 21st 1994 North Korea further deceived the world by signing an agreement with the United States agreeing to freeze operations of its nuclear reactors. The plan was to replace the old reactors with nuclear proliferation resistant light water power plants in exchange for an agreement on North Korea’s disarmament. However, in October of 2002 it was revealed that North Korea was operating a secret nuclear weapons program and negotiations fell apart.

On January 10th, 2002, they again withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and also in 2003. By 2003 North Korea admitted they had nuclear weapons or at least made that claim. In December of that same year North Korea again offered to make a deal. They proposed to “freeze” its nuclear program in exchange for concessions from the United States; however, President George Bush refused and insisted on a dismantling of their nuclear program.

On September 19th of 2005 another false start arose when the DPRK asked for a non- aggression pact with the United States in exchange for North Korean nuclear disarmament. Again, and only a day later, negotiations broke down. It seemed each successive U.S. administration spent the bulk of its tenure just learning the lesson that negotiations with North Korea were simply an illusion of dialog that never went anywhere.

In July of 2006 North Korea began a series of long-range missiles tests. As a result, the United Nations became involved with a resolution demanding the suspension of their nuclear program.

First Nuclear Test

On October 9th of 2006, North Korea conducted its first underground nuclear detonation in the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site’s granite tunnels under Mount Mantap. This is in the heavily forested Hamgyong mountain range fifty miles from Chongjin. The detonation was estimated at less than a kiloton and may have actually been an underperformed chain reaction. Seismic instruments around the world recorded this test so there was no way to hide the detonation even though it proved small. Xenon and 82

krypton isotopes were also detected in the atmosphere by aircraft with specialized sensors, confirming a nuclear test had occurred and also proving Pyongyang had used a plutonium-fueled device. In response, the U.N. imposed trade and travel sanctions. Then in December Six-Party talks began involving the United States, South Korea, China Japan, and Russia in an attempt to find a peaceful solution to the threat imposed by the DPRK’s weapon’s programs. North Korea agreed to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for a $400 million aid package and then agreed to begin disabling its nuclear weapons facilities. However, North Korea missed its end-of-year deadline to disable its weapons facilities. So, the talks proved fruitless once again.

Second Nuclear Test

On May 25th, 2009, they conducted a second underground nuclear test, estimated by seismographs to be between 2 and 5.4 kilotons. It became clear by that point North Korea had an established enrichment capability. In that test they used a new, more confined tunnel so atmospheric gases could not be detected. The deeper tunnel was located about halfway up the 7,200-foot mountain complex. In all, there are three visible main entrances, or portals, into a series of horizontal tunnels stretching a mile or more into the mountain. Studies of this second test suggest it has the shape of a fish-hook, just as is used in past testing in Pakistan. Of course, great assistance probably came from Pakistan in the first place. The tunnels are believed to be about 9 feet wide and 9 feet high with multiple sharp corners and various dead ends which defuse and absorb the blasts. In that text bulkheads were probably installed to confine the gasses while sand, gravel, or other materials mixed with concrete served to plug the tunnel.

The second 2009 test lead to further sanctions by the U.N. Once again in February of 2012 the DPRK suggested it would halt its nuclear weapons tests, missile launches, and nuclear enrichment activities in exchange for food aid.

Third Nuclear Test

Then on February 11th, 2013, a third underground test took place with a yield at 14 to 16 kilotons. On March 30th and 31st, 2014, the DPRK fired hundreds of artillery shells across its Yellow Sea border with South Korea. The South responded by firing 300 shells in return.

Fourth Nuclear Test

On January 6th, 2016, a fourth underground test supposedly involved a hydrogen bomb, but this claim has not been verified. U.S. analysts do not believe that a hydrogen bomb was detonated because the seismic data collected only estimated a 6 to 10 kiloton yield which is not consistent with the power that would be generated by a hydrogen bomb explosion. (Seismographic data is really all we have to go on because these were all underground tests.)

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Fifth Nuclear Test

On September 9th of last year, the fifth test occurred which has been calculated at between 10 and 25 kilotons. That is about the size of the 15 kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima. There is some debate as to exactly what this test revealed. David Wright, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists stated that “My guess is that the North is happy to have the world see that it is testing and get an estimate of the yield—at least as long as it is increasing—but likes keeping the world guessing about how advanced its program really is.” Other experts are concerned that the North is trying to develop a true thermonuclear bomb with the use of lithium-6. This material enhances the power of a nuclear weapon. There is also speculation that aside from research into fusion, North Korea may be developing composite fission designs, using cores of both plutonium and enriched uranium. Such a design would be smaller and easier to put on long-range missiles. It would also economize, making the most out of their ongoing production of enriched materials.

In 2016 North Korea also made dramatic advances in missile technology evidenced by recent trials. In the last twelve months, North Korea made the big step of launching a solid fuel ballistic missile from a submerged submarine and then a week before the latest nuclear test, they launched three missiles into the Sea of Japan with an apparent high degree of precision. Japan's Defense Minister Tomomi Inada said, “Looking at the fact that the three missiles have landed on almost the same spot at almost the same time. I think their missile technology has substantially improved.”

After the fifth nuclear test and subsequent missile trials, more international sanctions followed as well as U.N. and U.S. condemnations. In early 2017, China, which facilitates over 90 percent of Korean trade, finally imposed sanctions on North Korea’s chief export commodity, coal. However, it now appears that China may be purchasing their coal through discrete channels. So, as so often in that part of the world, nothing is ever as it seems or is as reported. It is largely an illusion.

Recent Days

On January 1st of this year, Kim Jong Un boasted that his country would soon have an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States mainland. Then in January the U.S. deployed a sophisticated ocean radar designed to detect any long-range missile launch from North Korea. On February 12th, the North tested a medium range ballistic missile and on March 6th fired four ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. On March 17th Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made a significant statement during a tour of Japan, South Korea and China. He explained that pre-emptive military action against North Korea may be an option if their nuclear, ballistic missile, and weapons of mass destruction programs continue. He commented that it has been twenty years of non-productive talks and policies with North Korea that has gotten us to this present situation. 84

Tillerson added that all options are on the table “if they elevate the threat of their weapons program to a level that we believe requires action.” On March 18th, he concluded his tour in China in an effort to seek cooperation on the threat posed by what is called the “Hermit Kingdom.” China does now seem to be to the point of losing patience with Kim Jong Un; however, it is equally despondent over what they see as provocative U.S. and South Korean military exercises currently under way. China is also in great opposition to the deployment of the new Thaad missile system. Both China and Russia are concerned about the advanced radar system used by Thaad’s radar-controlled firing system. This system can reach into neighboring Chinese and Russian territory, and is thus considered, from their perspective, to be an “invasion of national security.”

President Donald Trump’s recent suggestion of arming Japan with nuclear weapons is another highly contentious proposal to surface in recent weeks. That same day North Korea stole the headlines by testing a new rocket engine which analysts say appears to represent a significant advancement in design and thrust capability. Kim Jong Un claims this engine is for his country’s space program which since 2012 has succeeded in launching three satellites of very questionable performance. His endorsed statement read as follows, “This new-type high-thrust engine would help consolidate the scientific and technological foundation to match the world-level satellite delivery capability in the field of outer space development.”

On March 20th the Trump Administration announced that it is considering more sanctions against North Korea and against Chinese banks with business ties to North Korea. That same day, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said diplomacy wouldn’t work. On March 22nd North Korea had a failed missile launch; however, as in the early American tests in the 1950s, engineers know that as much useful information can be gained from a failed test as a successful one. It seems North Korea’s effort to build an ICBM is analogous to our attempts in the 1950s to perfect the long-range Atlas Rocket. That was a two-year project from start to finish; however, North Korea is moving considerably slower because they do not have the same technological resources to draw upon.

We tend to forget it’s not only North Korean nuclear weapons that are contravened by U.N. resolutions but ballistic missiles as well. The most recent missile launches, just like their recent nuclear tests, are not rebellious acts of saber-rattling or posturing to leverage an easing of sanctions—not that Kim Jong Un does not welcome that impression. Instead, and unfortunately, the missile tests and nuclear trials demonstrate methodical research and development attempting to strive toward engineering advancements. 85

On March 31st U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis stated “Right now, [North Korea] appears to be going in a very reckless manner … and that has got to be stopped.” It remains to be seen what will happen. On April 6th and 7th President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago. North Korea is expected to be the main topic of discussion. President Trump has already made the statement that if China does not exert more pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear program, then the United States will act unilaterally. It is not clear, however, what kind of action he means. A military solution seems almost unthinkable now because of the retaliatory threat North Korea could pose. Yes, the DPRK would lose any military conflict, but even in the best-case scenario they could kill thousands if not tens of thousands before they could be neutralized. Logically, that is why the new Administration must want to get China to use its leverage to avert a military conflict. Such a conflict would certainly lead to a greater U.S. involvement in Korea and perhaps unification, neither one of which would be desirable to China. So, it’s definitely in China’s interest to attempt to talk some sense into Kim Jong Un if that is even possible. A number of analysts, including Professor Yang Moo Jin of the University of North Korean Studies, feels that North Korea may now hold off their pending nuclear test until after Xi Jinping’s American visit. However, on Tuesday April 4th of this week the North Koreans did launch another ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan.

Meanwhile, Congress passed a bill which basically relisted North Korea as a state sponsor of terror. (It had been on that list before since 1988, but had been removed in 2008 in return for a promise to suspend uranium and plutonium enrichment as part of the Six Party Talks. That of course never happened.) The new resolution also officially denounced the DPRK’s nuclear and missile development projects. At the same time the U.S. Treasury implemented more sanctions on North Korea.

What will happen next? Two key and highly emotionally charged anniversary dates are on the horizon for the North. The first is the 105th birthday of Kim Il Sung, which falls on April 15th, and the second is the 85th anniversary of the creation of the Korean People's Army on April 25th. Those dates may pose an opportune time for North Korea to conduct their next nuclear test or attempt more ballistic missile tests. Stay tuned to our updates because it is assured there will soon be more to report on.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 86

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 5 The Story No One Is Talking About

From 1946 to 1992 the United States conducted approximately 1,054 nuclear tests between the Pacific Proving Grounds in the Marshal Islands and primarily at the Nevada Test Site.

(Other official figures put this at 1,030 total tests. Some tests took place off Kiribati Island in the Pacific, three in the Atlantic Ocean; ten other tests took place at various locations in the United States, including Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, and New Mexico.) There were many reasons for conducting the tests, but the initial reason centered on making the weapons smaller in physical size so as to make them easier to deliver. A key focus became to marry the nuclear weapons technology with the other great advancement to come out of the Second World War, rockets. Today we use the term missiles because the word rocket is somewhat old fashion now. “Rocket” also suggested the German weapons of World War Two, and even though it was largely the talent of German scientists who assisted our own programs, we put a new face on our technology with the term “missile” for weapons- related devices and the word “rockets” used in connection with space vehicles. Nomenclature aside, the ability to launch a nuclear device on a missile is something only a handful of global powers have perfected. North Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), is fast approaching that capability.

To date North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests at their Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. This is in violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and the DPRK has come under increasing sanctions by the United Nations. Their history in nuclear testing goes back to 2006. On October 9th, of that year, North Korea conducted an underground detonation estimated at less than a kiloton. On May 25th, 2009, they conducted a second underground nuclear test, estimated to be between 2 and 5.4 kilotons. On February 11th, 2013, a third underground test took place with a yield at 14 to 16 kilotons. On January 6th, 2016, a fourth underground test supposedly involved a hydrogen bomb, but this claim has not been verified. U.S. analysts do not believe that a hydrogen bomb was detonated because the seismic data collected only estimated a 6 to 10 kiloton yield which is not consistent with the power that would be generated by a hydrogen bomb explosion. (Seismographic data is really all we have to go on because these were all underground tests.) On September 9th, the fifth and

87 last underground test occurred which has been calculated at between 10 and 25 kilotons. That is about the size of the 15 kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

Those are all believed to be primarily plutonium-based devices derived from reprocessing from nuclear reactors located at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center ninety kilometers north of Pyongyang. North Korea has both uranium enrichment technology and plutonium reprocessing technologies. Analysts estimate that North Korea’s nuclear facilities can produce 0.9 grams of plutonium every day. Four to eight kilograms are required to make one bomb. Projections place their nuclear arsenal in the range of 14 to 48 devices as of this year.

This determined program to develop and refine nuclear weapons in conjunction with an equally disturbing effort to develop ballistic missiles is leading to a crisis. Retired Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney, who has many years’ experience in that region of the world, has warned that tensions are now higher than he has ever seen them on the Korean peninsula. The implosion of the sitting leadership’s authority in South Korea adds to the tenuous situation as their Constitutional Court upheld a decision to impeach President Park Geun-hye over a corruption scandal. A new government will be in power within sixty days following elections. The consensus is South Korea might return to a more liberal leadership as it had a decade ago which would be more appeasing to North Korea while potentially having less accommodating relations with the United States and Japan.

On March 17th Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made a significant statement during a tour of Japan, South Korea and China. He explained that pre-emptive military action against North Korea may be an option if their nuclear, ballistic missile, and weapons of mass destruction programs continue. He commented that it has been twenty years of non- productive talks and policies with North Korea that has gotten us to this present situation. Tillerson added that all options are on the table “if they elevate the threat of their weapons program to a level that we believe requires action.”

On March 18th, he concluded his tour in China in an effort to seek cooperation on the threat posed by what is called the “Hermit Kingdom.” China does now seem to be to the point of losing patience with Kim Jong Un; however, it is equally despondent over what they see as provocative U.S. and South Korean military exercises currently under way. China is also in great opposition to the deployment of the new Thaad missile system. Both China and Russia are concerned about the advanced radar system used by Thaad’s radar-controlled firing system. This system can reach into neighboring Chinese and Russian territory, and is thus considered, from their perspective, to be an “invasion of national security.” President Donald Trump’s suggestion of arming Japan with nuclear weapons is another highly contentious proposal to surface in recent weeks. 88

That same day North Korea stole the headlines by testing a new rocket engine which analysts say appears to represent a significant advancement in design and thrust capability. Kim Jong Un claims this engine is for his country’s space program which since 2012 has succeeded in launching three satellites of very questionable performance. His endorsed statement read as follows, “This new- type high-thrust engine would help consolidate the scientific and technological foundation to match the world-level satellite delivery capability in the field of outer space development.”

All those stories are very much in the news.

However, a story that no one is talking about concerns the likelihood of a new nuclear test.

In fact, the next North Korean nuclear test may only be days away.

Commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site shows that a substantial tunnel excavation is taking place just as observed prior to the other DPRK nuclear tests. The actual location of this excavation is very disturbing because it is in the “North Portal.” This is an area that provides the maximum geological overlay possible within the entire test site. This is also where the latest and largest test to date occurred on September 9, 2016. The website 38 North, run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University in Washington stated, “The continued tunneling under Mt. Mantap via the North Portal has the potential for allowing North Korea to support additional underground nuclear tests of significantly higher explosive yields, perhaps up to 282 kilotons (or just above a quarter of a megaton). . . A previous analysis had claimed that the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site was effectively yield limited such that the largest containable test was in the range of only a few tens of kilotons. Our analysis is the first to show that Punggye-ri is capable of hosting tests having yields into the hundreds of kilotons using only horizontally excavated tunnels.”

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Now analysts are not saying the next test will be that large, just that it may be bigger than the last one as they progress in their weapons’ development.

Another story that no one is talking about is North Korea’s efforts to stockpile chemical weapons. This is highly disturbing because approximately twenty-six million South Korean civilians live within range of over 21,000 North Korean artillery pieces. The International Crisis Group and International Institute for Strategic Studies report that the consensus view is that North Korea has a stockpile of about 2,500 to 5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons, including mustard gas, sarin (GB) and other nerve agents. With the recent assassination of Kim Jong Nam, we now know that DPRK agents used

VX nerve gas. This is a highly toxic agent developed in Britain in the 1950s and is believed to now have been weaponized by the DPRK. VX is much more toxic than the very potent sarin which was developed in Germany in 1935. Both are prohibited under the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention, and both have been used in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. North Korea has not signed the current Chemical Weapons Conventions although it is a party to the Geneva Protocol, which prohibits the use of chemical weapons in warfare.

Another story under everyone’s radar are reports of the new strain of bird flu in North Korea and other Asian neighbors. The Food and Agriculture Organization know that the outbreak of this new H7N9 strain is serious in China; however, decisive steps are being taken to deal with this potent virus there and in other Asian countries. The same stain, however, is now in North Korea and Kim Jong Un refuses to seek assistance from world health organizations. He has instead ordered his citizens to deal with the outbreak using “ancient home remedies.” The Food and Agriculture Organization said “new evidence from Guangdong in southern China pointed to H7N9 having mutated to become much deadlier for chickens while retaining its capacity to make humans severely ill.” No one knows to what extent the new H7N9 strain has spread in North Korea nor how much devastation has been endured by another disaster six months ago, when that country’s harvest suffered crippling effects from floods and heavy rains. The problem is that the only way to control an outbreak of bird flu is to cull the infected chickens, and

90 in a country like North Korea where so many people are undernourished, this simply is not going to happen.

One wonders how much additional suffering the North Korean population will stand for or how much more repression and irrational violence via executions of key government leaders the political class will stand for. Will the United States, South Korea, Japan or even China tolerate additional advances in North Korea’s nuclear, ballistic missile and chemical weapon programs? Will there be a breaking point? Kim Jong Un literally has his finger on the button.

Events in North Korea are unfolding day by day. Unfortunately, little attention is given to this important story by most media. Its largely been the story no one is talking about for well over twenty years. The National Atomic Testing Museum hopes to detail these important North Korea updates into an effective display soon.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 4 Peculiar Developments

At the age of 33, Kim Jong Un is the youngest leader of any country in the world, and his authoritarian regime may be on the verge of collapse according to some analysts. Certainly, peculiar developments have been reported that could point to an unraveling of the political class in North Korea, or Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Events are moving quickly. To date there have been many new sanctions placed on North Korea with varying results. The most important goal in these UN- mandated sanctions has been to degrade the totalitarian regime’s exports and thus its revenue stream of foreign currency. In theory, this would make it more difficult for the DPRK to keep developing sophisticated weapons systems, while minimizing the effects on an already starving population.

The major stumbling block to this has always been North Korea’s border ally, China. China purchases significant amounts of North Korea’s most important export, coal. China also tends to find ways to justify a flow of trade in and out of North Korea. They circumvent many of the sanctions by declaring certain goods for “livelihood” purposes.

On Saturday, January 18th, China reversed this long-standing policy and stated that it would be suspending its coal-imports from North Korea until the end of 2017. Coal exports to China represent thirty-five percent of the economy of North Korea. Unprecedented UN sanctions since November were already putting renewed pressure on Kim Jong Un’s regime. China’s recent moves present a significant change; however, their motives are unclear.

China for years justifiably defended its bolstering of North Korea with the argument that they do not want a failed nuclear state on their border, nor do they want a humanitarian crisis that would flood tens of thousands of refugees across their shared border. So, something has apparently changed. Some analysts say this might be China’s way of forcing President Donald Trump to make the next move with North Korea. Of course all strategists agree, war would serve no nation’s interest. Yet, a regime change is another matter and China could be contemplating that scenario.

Other strange events are unfolding as well. On February 13th Kim Jong Nam, the elder, estranged half-brother of Kim Jong Un, died in an apparent assassination utilizing a VX 92 nerve agent at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia. While there is no evidence to indicate who ordered the murder, Kim Jong Un has a long history of brutal reprisals against family members and those of the North Korean political class. Although they have different mothers and were never allowed to meet, Kim Jong Nam and Kim Jong Un are both sons of former North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il. Kim Jong Nam fell out of political favor in 2001 when he left Korea without permission to visit Disneyland in Tokyo. Choosing exile, he later became critical of Kim Jong Un as well as his father’s militaristic legacy. Despite this, and the fact he is the eldest son of Kim Jong Il, he has been considered a non-player because Kim Jong Nam had been living rather quietly in Macau, an autonomous region of China. South Korean Intelligence officials affirm that Kim stood little to gain from assassinating his own half-brother.

Opinions are split on the mystery. Some China analysts feel that Kim Jong Nam may have been benefiting from some sort of sanctuary under the Chinese and viewed as a possible successor to Kim Jong Un should China be forced to intervene in North Korea. Others discount that notion. Think-tank analysts stated that such foul-play on the part of North Korea would be little more than a senseless murder by an increasingly paranoid regime.

That assessment is not beyond reason. Kim Jong Un, the youngest son of Kim Jong Il, came to power upon his father’s death in 2011. Since then he has ordered the execution of numerous individuals without clear reason. This included his uncle Jang Sung Taek who had served as a top-ranking government leader since the days of Kim Jong Il’s rule. In addition to that, Jang’s entire family and extended family are believed to have been executed.

In May 2015, after he caught his defense minister, Hyon Yong Chol, falling asleep at a meeting, he ordered the minister to be dismembered by a large caliber anti-aircraft weapon. Han Ki Beom, Deputy Director of South Korea's National Intelligence Agency, stated that hundreds of officials watched the execution of Hyon Yong Chol by a ZPU-4 anti-aircraft gun. Kim has ordered other members of his government executed as well. O Sang Hon, a deputy security minister, was executed with a flamethrower. Others have been executed with mortar rounds though most are apparently executed by a firing squad using automatic weapons. Last year Kim’s top Education Official, Kim Young Jin fell before a firing squad. To date, estimates range that 93 anywhere from 70 to 100 key individuals of the political class may have been executed at the order of Kim. A higher number places the estimate at 340 senior individuals. Analysts cannot agree on the full extent to what is going on inside North Korea.

Kim’s grandfather and then father brutally ruled North Korea for many years before him, although they appeared to have had a more measured or pragmatic approach. Senior defense analyst Bruce Bennett of the RAND Corporation noted that Kim has purged five Defense Ministers in five years while his father changed his Defense Minister only three times in 17 years, with two of those changes due to legitimate retirements.

Andrei Lankov, a Russian expert on Korea and instructor at Kookmin University in Seoul expressed concern over Kim’s grasp on reality. Lankov explained that Kim had a spoiled and privileged childhood not unlike many Western billionaires. Kim, in all likelihood, has never been out of sight of a host of bodyguards since the day he was born in 1984. His entire existence has been one of isolation from the real world which includes his schooling near Berne, Switzerland. There he was required to study and address his instructors in German in which, to his frustration, he had little proficiency. His education lacked any distinction. Lankov pointed out that Kim’s parents did not have that detached disadvantage and understood that being a dictator in a country like North Korea was a serious game. A deadly game. Several doubt if Kim understands the reality of his situation.

Some analysts debate whether or not Kim Jong Un’s behavior is rational. They wonder if the DPRK political class will break or rebel under the strain of his unpredictable rule. That political class is tightly controlled and intimidated by a reign of terror. It is believed as many as 200,000 North Koreans are currently being held in six political prison camps. This is not new to North Korea, but the scale and indiscriminate brutality does seem to be unique to Kin Jong Un’s rule. Franklin Roosevelt once observed that it is “no fun to be a leader without followers.” Stalin confessed to both Roosevelt and Churchill that even dictators need followers.

A few lucky individuals find ways out of North Korea, and the most remarkable defection occurred just this past year. Thae Young Ho is the most recent and highest-level official to ever defect North Korea. He served as North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom. He is understandably now under heavy guard as he has been extremely vocal in recent months about what he sees as an unstable regime. To date, 27,000 North Koreans have fled their country, but none have been of the level of Thae Young Ho.

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Think-tanks around the world and intelligence analysts debate over Kim Jong Un’s stability. Most agree that he has masterfully concentrated huge resources into North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear testing programs, despite ever-toughening sanctions. Kim has also promised economic growth and has produced some signs of development and increased consumer goods in Pyongyang, the DPRK capital. These small accomplishments are often showcased on television, and this is what foreign visitors see. The Korean economy has made gains in the development of precision computer numerical control systems and the processing of raw materials like magnesium, graphite and zinc. They are also increasing trade with African countries who care little about sanctions. However, much of the North Korean population lives in a non-industrialized society and suffers from malnutrition. It should be stressed though that Kim Jong Un has ended the food shortages and starvation. He has also relaxed economic controls and North Korea is slowly developing signs of a market economy—all be it a largely black-market government sanctioned one utilizing trade across the Chinese border. Nevertheless, satellite imagery of the Korean peninsula at night shows the DPRK void of electrical light except for the area of Pyongyang. South Korea, in contrast, shows the illumination of extensive industrialization.

Kim is doing too good a job managing military advances. He has continued to field a million-man army with vast amounts of heavy artillery while developing advanced weapons development projects. These represent steady progressions in ballistic missile and nuclear research that are not mere posturing by a madman, though perhaps that affect has made its impression to Kim’s benefit. The consensus therefore concludes that Kim is rational. Most experts see him utilizing the Songun or “military first” policy adhered to by his father Kim Jong Il. This puts North Korea on a constant war footing to overcome two inescapable challenges which it has faced since the end of the Cold War.

First, China, although not totally unsympathetic to North Korea, has been more focused on relations and trade with the West. Second, the amazing success of a democratic South Korea seems to make North Korea look almost insignificant. So, the North (from its perspective) must make itself relevant to the world. Professor Victor Cha of Georgetown University who served on George W. Bush’s National Security Council states North Korea is savagely cruel as well as coolly calculating. These are not mutually exclusive in his view.

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North Korea of course is banned by the United Nations from conducting any type of nuclear or ballistic missile tests. Yet this has not deterred Kim Jong Un. In recent months North Korea has made dramatic advances in missile technology evidenced by recent trials. Just last summer in 2016, Korea made the watershed step of launching a solid fuel ballistic missile from a submerged submarine. Then, a week before the latest and fifth nuclear test early last September, they launched three missiles into the Sea of Japan with an apparent high degree of precision. Japan's Defense Minister Tomomi Inada said, “Looking at the fact that the three missiles have landed on almost the same spot at almost the same time, I think their missile technology has substantially improved.”

A BBC News article from January 6, 2017 quotes Professor Siegfried S. Hecker of Stanford University. He is an experienced voice on North Korea’s weapons’ development and a longtime National Atomic Testing Museum supporter and guest lecturer. Professor Hecker stated, “We must assume that the DPRK has design ed and demonstrated nuclear warheads that can be mounted on some of its short-range and perhaps medium-range missiles.”

Melissa Hanham, senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, stated her greatest fear is that North Korea could launch a live nuclear warhead on a missile and the resulting atmospheric explosion would be hard to differentiate between an act of war or a test.

The implications are clear that any aggressive action by North Korea would be met by overwhelming force, although that does not mean Kin Jong Un will heed such a warning. The logical assumption is that despite Kim’s youth and inexperience, in the final analysis, he will be motivated by the instinct of self- preservation above all else. If not for his country, at least for himself. The two are now inseparable because he has nowhere else to go. Kim has not even attempted to visit China since assuming power in 2011.

Strategic analysts warn that Korea must not become a flash point. All agree the level of tension is dangerously high and the situation unpredictable. With the annual military joint American and South Korean military exercises coming up in March, North Korea is already using sharp rhetoric. None of the experts on Korea have a crystal ball. What Kim Jong Un will do next is unknown

As an additional update to this story, events continue to move quickly. Since I wrote this article a week ago, five more state-level officials are said to have been executed in North Korea. Like in other similar state purges these executions are said to have been conducted in an extraordinarily brutal manner. The story of the assassination of Kim’s brother is also taking on bizarre twist and turns.

On Saturday, March 4th, Malaysia expelled the South Korean Ambassador Kang Chol with a forty-eight-hour deadline after he publicly criticized the integrity of the police 96 investigation into Kim Jong Nam’s assassination, now confirmed to be the result of a VX nerve agent. As Kang Chol returned on Monday, March 6th, North Korea expelled Kuala Lumpur’s ambassador which had in fact already exited the country following his recall in late February. North Korea is now also reportedly holding a number of Malaysian citizens against their will in retaliation.

In addition, on Monday, March 6th, North Korea protested the annual joint American and South Korean military exercises with four more ballistic missile launches. According to North Korean news stories, Kim Jong Un personally supervised the launches from the Dongchang-ri long-range missile site in North Pyongan Province. Three of the missiles covered 620 miles on a course into the Sea of Japan. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga confirmed three missiles fell into their territorial waters.

On Tuesday, March 7th, the long awaited and highly controversial Thaad missile system started arriving in South Korea. This is the Lockheed Martin Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-ballistic missile system which can shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles. It will supplement existing SAM or surface to air and Patriot PAC-3 missile systems already in place, bringing a radical new three-tiered defense posture. Unfortunately, none of these systems can adequately contend with an overwhelming number of simultaneous missile launches nor do they protect completely against the low trajectory of submarine launched missiles.

The Thaad missile deployment is extremely controversial. The primary issue rests with China whose Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Geng Shuang stated today, “We will firmly take necessary measures to preserve our own security interest, and the US and South Korea must bear the potential consequences.” Both China and Russia are concerned about the advanced radar system used by Thaad’s radar-controlled firing system. This system can reach into neighboring Chinese and Russian territory, and is thus considered, from their perspective, to be an “invasion of national security.”

On Wednesday, March 8th, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that “the United States and North Korea are set for a head-on collision.” Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is heading to the region to supposedly try and defuse the situation.

We need to all stay tuned to these important developing stories.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 97

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 3 Sanctions

As we reported in our various North Korean updates in last year’s E-Blast editions, the long- troubled Asian country conducted their fourth and fifth nuclear tests in 2016. Since then, the United Nations has imposed further sanctions which impacted upon North Korea’s mineral exports in copper, nickel, silver and zinc. The resolution also hinders North Korea's exports of coal which is one of its biggest sources of revenue. These sanctions cut the state’s annual $3 billion income by $750 million. The South Korean Yonhap News Agency quotes the North Korean foreign ministry as saying, “The resolution is as good as a declaration of war.” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has encouraged such wild statements before. So, the latest is nothing new. Unfortunately, experts do fear that despite the sanctions, North Korea is only months away from the next and sixth nuclear test.

Also of note is recent satellite imagery which suggests North Korea is preparing to send a new type of ballistic missile submarine, nicknamed “The Whale,” to sea trials. Last August they successfully launched a solid fuel missile from a submerged submarine. However, their existing submarines have limited capacity for carrying missiles and lack the ability to stay submerged for any length of time. The Gorae, (Gorae is Korean for whale) is also called the Sinpo-class after its home- base shipyard. The Gorae is the biggest design Korea has built to date, and this new development in a large-capacity ocean-going submarine is very disturbing to Western Intelligence. The diesel-powered sub may be based on past Soviet designs and appears to have one or two built-in launch tubes in its conning tower, each assuming to accommodate a ballistic missile. The vessel’s displacement is estimated at 2,000 to 3,000 tons with a length around 200 feet. The design, if truly capable of firing ballistic missiles, would represent a significant advance. This would put North Korea at a level that the Soviets and Americans were reaching five and a half decades ago when a Cold War arms race was just beginning to get serious.

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Experts agree that North Korean nuclear weaponeers are proceeding just as U.S. scientists did in this country years ago at the Nevada Test Site. American physicists and engineers in those early years conducted nuclear tests in order to learn how to standardize warhead design as well as miniaturize bombs for deployment on rockets, more commonly referred to today as ballistic missiles. Now, North Korean technicians are trying to do just that at their Punggye-ri Test Site, and the goal seems to marry their weapons with missiles.

A January 6th article in the BBC News quotes Professor Siegfried S. Hecker of Stanford University. He is an experienced voice on North Korea’s weapons’ development and a longtime National Atomic Testing Museum supporter and guest lecturer. Professor Hecker stated, “We must assume that the DPRK has designed and demonstrated nuclear warheads that can be mounted on some of its short-range and perhaps medium-range missiles.” He continued, “Pyongyang’s ability to field an intercontinental ballistic missile fitted with a nuclear warhead capable of reaching the US is still a long way off—perhaps 5 to 10 years, but likely doable if the program is unconstrained.”

It seems North Korea’s effort to build an ICBM is analogous to our attempts in the 1950s to perfect the long-range Atlas Rocket. That was a two-year project from start to finish; however, North Korea is moving considerably slower because they do not have the same technological resources to draw upon.

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We tend to forget it’s not only North Korean nuclear weapons that are contravened by U.N. resolutions but ballistic missiles as well. The most recent missile launches, just like their recent nuclear tests, are not rebellious acts of saber- rattling or posturing to leverage an easing of sanctions. Not that Kim Jong Un does not welcome that impression. Instead, and unfortunately, the missile tests and nuclear trials demonstrate methodical research and development attempting to strive toward engineering advancements.

In his New Year’s address, Kim Jong Un boasted of an eminent missile test that would be intercontinental in scope. That may be beyond their immediate abilities; however, no analyst doubts that they have made dramatic advancements across the board in weapons technology. With a new year and a new administration before us, we need to stay informed on this important international issue. It is our mission at the National Atomic Testing Museum to document the unfolding and ongoing history and current events in nuclear testing. We never take a political stance on any issue; rather, we do strive to keep you informed.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 2 Weapons Development

We continue to outline key story-lines for a temporary exhibit on the Korean situation. Since the most recent and now fifth nuclear test in North Korea, more information has come forth. North Korea is such a closed society that no one can provide exact intelligence. However, analysts are in agreement that we are witnessing a decided departure from past behavior. The most recent tests are now believed to represent true nuclear weapons development and not simple posturing as in years past.

North Korean weaponeers are proceeding just as U.S. scientists did in this country years ago at the Nevada Test Site. American physicists in those early years needed to conduct nuclear tests to learn how to standardize warhead design as well as miniaturize bombs for deployment on rockets. Now North Korean technicians are trying to do just that at the Punggye-ri Test Site, and the goal seems to be to marry their North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches submarine-launched solid fueled ballistic missile. weapons with missiles.

The missile tests themselves are even more disturbing because they also represent significant advances in technology. We tend to forget it’s not only nuclear weapons that are contravened by U.N. resolutions but ballistic missiles as well. The most recent launches are not rebellious acts to leverage an easing of sanctions. The missile tests demonstrate methodical research and development leading to engineering advancements.

The latest test of a liquid fueled Musudan (BM-25 A year after the Cuban Missile Crisis John F. or Nodong-B) intermediate-range ballistic missile Kennedy witnessed a U.S. test of a similar submerged launched solid fueled rocket. Kennedy demonstrated very good accuracy. Three of these felt it marked a significant change in a nation’s reached a targeted area within one kilometer. This ability is a to significant strategize for nuclear advancement war. from previous designs which had been based on the old Soviet Scud rockets which were close ancestors to the German World War Two era V-2. The newer North Korean missiles are likely based on the more advanced R-27/SS-N-6 missile developed by the Soviet Union in 1983. Analysts also speculate that North Korea has sold their design to Iran which their Middle East associates have already put into production as the Shahab missile series. Exact details of the evolution of all these missile designs may never be known. 101

North Korean research in solid fuel systems is also ringing alarm bells. In April they tested a variant called the KN-11 Pukguksong -1 or “Bukkeukseong-1” (meaning “North Star”) missile. This Polaris-like submarine-launched ballistic missile was successfully launched from a submerged submarine on August 24th of this year. The test proved a significant advancement for a nuclear armed state. It becomes such a formidable threat because this could serve as a second-strike weapon in the event an ally of South Korea, such as the United States, came to their aid in time of war. Military consultants believe the KN-11 Pukguksong -1 could be stored for launch on their Sinpo-class submarine. Such submarine designs are not as advanced as in Western navies and have finite capacity for staying submerged for any length of time. More advanced North Korea may be building a new generation of submarine designed specifically to carry ballistic missiles as this satellite photo of North Korea’s submarines may however main Sino South Shipyard suggest. already be in production. Another concern is the possibility that a land-based version of the KN-11 Pukguksong-1 might be deployed. This is so serious a threat because its solid fuel design means it can be launched with almost no preparation time.

Thus the focus on controlling the proliferation of nuclear weapons in North Korea is no longer as relevant an issue. Many say it’s far too late for that now. Expressing that view is former Defense Secretary William Perry. He says that time has come and gone. Perry stresses that we now have to concentrate on the delivery systems.

Experts debate whether China may be the only country which can force some sort of solution. At present there does not seem to be a lot of momentum in that direction. The problem is China seems to fear the U.S. attaining a better position out of a negotiated “solution.” They certainly do not want what South Korea aspires to which is unification. The status quo for China really seems to be the only consensus they can reach. So what is “an end-game that the Chinese can aspire to?” as it has been phrased by Yun Sun, senior associate with the East Asia Program at the Henry L. Stimson The Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. Satellite photos revealed mining activity at three “portals” or entrances to Center and non-resident fellow of the underground areas just prior to the last nuclear test. Brookings Institution. Is it more about China than North Korea?

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As long as the U.S. and South Korea continue to engage in yearly joint military exercises and develop missile defensive systems, specifically the deployment of the Thaad defensive system, China cannot agree on a diplomatic strategy. It remains a very complicated dynamic. In the end, as it stands now, North Korea refuses to de-nuclearize and the U.S. position is that it cannot continue talks until denuclearization is on the table. The simple reality is that under North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s rule, nuclear weapons have become a part of national identity. They will not abandon them now. Certainly, not while Kim Jong Un rules.

Others question the rationale of Kim Jong Un. Leaders like the Korean dictator have caused their nation disastrous repercussions before. The historical analogies are many and sobering. In 1914 Kaiser Wilhelm II stood before a Germany poised to become the most productive country on the globe. Their industrial capacity was set to outstrip Britain and all other countries. At the time it exported a huge variety of goods all over the world. German Krupp factories provided much of the high-grade steel for American railroads. Germany even produced cheap tin toys that proliferated in almost every country of the world which brought huge revenues back into Germany. They were leaders in every field of science. Germany most importantly boasted one of the largest merchant marine fleets in history. That growing economy promised the Kaiser’s Germany the realization of long- dreamt social programs.

In a day’s time with one irrational act, the Kaiser gave all that prosperity and security up to mobilize and join the war in Europe. This included the immediate loss of his merchant fleet which was largely on the high seas at the start of the war and subsequently seized. Germany’s destruction followed, not once but twice. To this day Germany and even the victorious nations of Europe are still paying the debts of two world wars.

Leaders can and do make very irrational acts and have done so many times in history. Kim Jong Un does not lead a prosperous nation which is even more reason for concern. His country, however, is guaranteed destruction if he chooses a war involving nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, with severe famine coupled with recent flooding as well as ever tightening sanctions, he may not rationalize the dangers nor realize the advantages denuclearization could bring. Hopefully, Korea will not become a flash point for war. Many senior analysts agree, war is simply becoming too easy just as it was in 1914.

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected] 103

The Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum “Using lessons of the past to better understand the present.”

North Korea Update 1 Important Subject

The National Atomic Testing Museum is working to develop an in-house exhibit on the latest nuclear tests in North Korea. It is a challenging task because we obviously have no three- dimensional objects to display, and the information available is sparse. The situation in North Korea is also very fluid.

We do know they have just fired their fifth nuclear test, all of which have been underground. Analysts say it is the largest to date and may exceed ten kilotons. This could, however, only be a prelude to a sixth test to come.

There is still an unused tunnel at the Nuclear tests in North Korea, because they are underground, Punggye-ri Test Site which is are only detectable by seismographic instrumentation and thus available and apparently waiting measured as quake magnitudes. for the next round. The biggest concern being expressed among analysts is that North Korean physicists and engineers may be reaching a standardization of a reliable weapon design that can go into production. Fears also center on their efforts to develop the technology to miniaturize the warheads, a key step in being able to place it on the tip of a missile.

North Korea of course is banned by the United Nations to conduct any type of nuclear or ballistic missile tests. Melissa Hanham, senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California stated her greatest fear is that North Korea could eventually commit to a demonstration launch of a live nuclear warhead on a missile and the resulting atmospheric explosion would be hard to differentiate between an act of war or test.

In recent months North Korea has made dramatic advances in missile technology evidenced by recent trials. Just in the last few weeks North Korea made the big step of launching a ballistic missile from a submerged submarine and then a week before the latest nuclear test, they launched three missiles into the Sea of Japan with an apparent high degree 104

of precision. Japan's Defense Minister Tomomi Inada said, “Looking at the fact that the three missiles have landed on almost the same spot at almost the same time, I think their missile technology has substantially improved.”

The same disturbing advances in missile technology is true in Iran, which has had undefined contacts and relationships with North Korea for years. Some defense analysts have gone so far to say that the missiles routinely launched by the Iranians are the same designs North Korea develops only months previous. In 2011 U.S. Defense Secretary Bob Gates publicly warned of “what North Korea might be capable of in five years’ time.” We are now there.

Noted analyst Siegfried Hecker, an expert on North Korea and a recent NATM and Nevada Test Site Historical Foundation distinguished lecturer, stated that North Korea can now produce enough highly enriched uranium for six nuclear bombs per year. He further estimates that with an existing stockpile of 32 to 54 kilograms of plutonium, North Korea will have enough fissile material for about 20 bombs by the end of 2016.

The situation is indeed serious. Tensions are growing from this most recent nuclear test. South Korean leaders are warning of “severe repercussions” if the North displays any further aggressive moves. Their rhetoric reflects tensions on a level not yet reached in sixty years. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki- moon stated: “Never in the past have I ever seen such kind of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.” China, one of North Korea’s few allies, is very uneasy as well. They have even become concerned enough that they have assisted with some of the ever-growing series of sanctions, agreeing with the banning of coal exports from North Korea and imports of aviation fuel.

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The key problem, however, is that China is currently much more concerned over the decision by the United States to deploy the defensive Thaad missile system in South Korea next year. This is the Lockheed Martin Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-ballistic missile system which can shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles. It will supplement existing SAM or surface to air and Patriot PAC-3 missile systems already in place, bringing a radical new paradigm to South Korea with a three-tiered defense posture.

Because Thaad’s radar-controlled system can reach into neighboring Chinese and Russian territory, it is considered highly controversial and China is adamantly opposed to it. Beyond that, China is North Korea’s main supplier of oil and apparently refuses to impose an embargo on that precious commodity. Russia is another possible source of oil even if China cuts off the spigot. Yet China, in the final analysis, simply does not want to see North Korea fall into chaos with thousands of refugees headed toward its border and the possible loss of a buffer state. On the other side, Russia as a player is very unpredictable. So there is a complicated political dynamic at play here.

What do deterrents look like in this 21st Century atmosphere we live in? That is a good question. Just days before the most recent nuclear tests the Obama Administration suggested it may reverse the decision to deploy the Thaad defense system. Two days after the tests two U.S. B-1 supersonic Lancer bombers conducted a low-altitude flight over South Korea near the Demilitarized Zone as a show of force.

Another issue that has had little attention concerns severe flooding in areas of North Korea. This may prove to be a much more significant story than is now being reported. Apparently large portions of the military have been mobilized to contend with the disaster. Over 100,000 people may have been displaced already. Meanwhile, the world mobilizes even more sanctions on a country with an already starving population but a seemingly unstoppable ability to funnel illegal monies for weapons production and research. Will the United Nations act decisively? Will the United States act unilaterally or bilaterally with South Korea or even in a trilateral fashion with China? How does an already posturing Russia figure into the equation?

Michael Hall Executive Director Smithsonian Affiliated National Atomic Testing Museum 755 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV 89119 Work Phone: 702-794-5140 Cell Phone: 305-505-5405 [email protected]

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