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Sydney Impact Report Sydney Impact Report Office Market 2014 June Quarter Update INSIDE THIS ISSUE: About This Report Economic Fundamentals 2 Preston Rowe Paterson prepare standard research reports covering the main Sydney Office Market Highlights 3 markets within which we operate in each of our capital cities and major regional locations. Sydney CBD Office Market 4 Within this report we analysed the sales, leases and developments over the past six North Sydney Office Market months to the reported quarter in the various Sydney Office markets of; Sydney, 5 North Sydney, Crows Nest/ St Leonards, Parramatta, Chatswood, North Ryde/ Crows Nest/St Leonards Office Market 7 Macquarie Park & other NSW suburban business hubs. Parramatta Office Market 8 To compile the research report we have considered the most recently available statistics from known sources. Given the manner in which statistics are complied and Chats wood Office Market published they are usually 3-6 months out of date at the time we analyse them. 9 Where possible we consider short term movement in the statistics by looking at daily North Ryde/Macquarie Park Office Market published data in the financial press. Where this shows notable fluctuation, when 10 compared to the formal published numbers we have commented accordingly. About Preston Rowe Paterson 12 Contact Us 15 Phone: +61 2 9292 7400 1 Fax: +61 2 9292 7404 Address: Level 11, 80 Clarence Street Sydney NSW 2000 Email: [email protected] Follow us: Visit www.prp.com.au to follow us © Copyright Preston Rowe Paterson Australasia Pty Limited Economic Fundamentals Unemployment (Rate and Persons) 875,000 7.25 GDP 825,000 6.75 GDP figures for the June quarter are not available until the 3rd Sep- 775,000 6.25 tember 2014 however PRP Research over the March 2014 quarter 725,000 5.75 revealed that the Australian economy recorded growth of 1.1% sea- sonally adjusted which reflected growth of 3.5% seasonally adjusted 675,000 5.25 over the twelve months to March 2013. 625,000 4.75 Unemployment rate (%) rate Unemployment '000 persons Unemployed 575,000 4.25 In seasonally adjusted terms, the main contributors to GDP were Mining which increased by 8.6%, Financial and insuring services 525,000 3.75 increasing by 2.8% and Construction (up 3%). Each of these indus- 475,000 3.25 tries accounted for 0.2% of the total increase in GDP. 425,000 2.75 Jun-13 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-14 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-07 Unemployed Persons Unemployment Rate Source: ABS/PRP Research Chart 2 – Unemployment – Source ABS Gross Domestic Product 450,000.0 10.0 Interest Rates 400,000.0 8.0 350,000.0 6.0 As at the date of publishing, the official Cash Rate over the June 300,000.0 quarter 2014 remained unchanged at 2.50%. The Reserve Bank of 4.0 Australia’s Media Release for July 2014, released 1st July 2014 ex- 250,000.0 plained that; 2.0 GDP Millions 200,000.0 0.0 “In Australia, recent data indicate somewhat firmer growth around the 150,000.0 turn of the year, but this resulted mainly from very strong increases in -2.0 100,000.0 resource exports as new capacity came on stream; smaller increases in such exports are likely in coming quarters. Moderate growth has 50,000.0 -4.0 been occurring in consumer demand. A strong expansion in housing 0.0 -6.0 construction is now under way. At the same time, resources sector investment spending is starting to decline significantly. Signs of im- Sep-09 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-05 provement in investment intentions in some other sectors are emerg- Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted % Change Seasonally Adjusted ing, but these plans remain tentative as firms wait for more evidence of improved conditions before committing to significant expansion. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued. Overall, the Bank still Chart 1 – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Source ABS expects growth to be a little below trend over the year ahead.” Labour force Cash Rate 8.0 Over the month to June 2014, the number of unemployed people 7.0 increased by 20,322 from 721,330 in May to 742,652 in June which is a percentage decline over the month of 2.82%. In comparison to 6.0 June 2013, the number of unemployed people has increased by 49,772 which reflected a percentage increase of 7.2%. The national 5.0 unemployment rate is 6%. 4.0 Employment over the month to June 2014 recorded an increase of Rate Cash 3.0 20,300 persons from 11,562,300 in May to 11,578,200 in June, a percentage increase of 0.14%. In comparison to June 2013, employ- 2.0 ment in Australia recorded growth of 100,259 reflecting a percentage increase of 0.9%. 1.0 New South Wales experienced the largest absolute increase in sea- 0.0 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 sonally adjusted employment by 10,000 persons. The unemployment Dec-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 status in New South Wales over the June Quarter increase by 0.5% to 5.7%. Cash Rate Chart 3 – Cash Rate – Source RBA Phone: +61 2 9292 7400 Fax: +61 2 9292 7404 Address: Level 11, 80 Clarence Street Sydney NSW 2000 2 Email: [email protected] Follow us: Visit www.prpsydney.com.au to follow us 2 © Copyright Preston Rowe Paterson Australasia Pty Limited Bond Market CPI According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (June 2014), the 10 Year Bond & 90 Day Bill Rate Australia’s All Groups CPI increased by 0.5% over the quarter to June 2014 from 105.4 to 105.9. The annual CPI change to June In the twelve months to June 2014, the 10 Year Bond Rate has 2014 recorded a growth of 3%. increased by 16 basis points to 3.70%. Conversely, the 90 Day Bill Rate has declined by 10 basis points from 2.80% to 2.70%. Over The most significant price rises over the June quarter were for medi- the June 2014 quarter, 10 Year Government Bonds recorded a cal and hospital services (+4.6%), tobacco (+3.1%) and new dwell- steady decline of 40 basis points from 4.10%. ing purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.6%). The insurance and finan- cial services group remain unchanged over the June quarter. The 90 Day Bill Rate recorded a steady increase over the June quarter by 4 basis points. Year on year analysis has revealed that Consumer Price Index the 90 Day Bill Rate has declined a total of 10 basis points since 120.0 8 June 2013. 7.5 7 100.0 6.5 90 Day Bank Bill Rate, 10 year Government Bond Yield 6 and Cash Rate - Monthly 5.5 8.00 80.0 5 4.5 4 60.0 7.00 3.5 3 Aus All Groups AusAll 40.0 2.5 % Change Annual 6.00 2 1.5 20.0 1 5.00 0.5 Percentage (%) Percentage 0 0.0 -0.5 4.00 Jun-12 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-14 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 3.00 All Groups CPI - Australia Annual % Change Chart 6– Consumer Price Index—Source—ABS 2.00 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-08 Consumer Sentiment Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Source: RBA /PRP Research 10 Yr Bond 90 Day Bill Cash Rate The Westpac Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 4 –90 Day Bill, 10 year bond and cash rate - MONTHLY – Source RBA increased by 0.3% in June from 92.9 index points in May to 93.2 index points in March. Over the quarter the index has declined by Analysis of 10 Year Government Bonds has revealed an increase 6.3 points, a decline of 6.33%. Over the twelve months to June the of 16 basis points over the month of June 2014 with the 10 year index declined by 9 index points, reflecting a percentage decline of bond rate currently at 3.88%. 90 day bill rates remained relatively 8.79%. no changes over the month of June at 2.69%. The changes in both 10 year bonds and the 90 day bill rate reflect a yield spread of 100 The Index has risen from its lowest in May and is expected to contin- basis points. ue to do so. Westpac’s Senior Economist, Matthew Hassan stated; “Sentiment has stabilised after registering a sharp fall in the wake of 90 Day Bank Bill Rate, 10 year Government Bond Yield the Federal Budget last month. The Index is still in firmly pessimistic and Cash Rate - Daily territory however, down 6.6% from its pre-Budget level in April and 4.50 15.6% below its post-election high in November last year”.
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