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Sixth Power Plan Cover Design.Indd Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendices of the ion at lic b u p A February 2010 Council Document 2010-09 Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Executive Summary Action Plan Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Key Assumptions Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Chapter 4: Conservation Supply Assumptions Chapter 5: Demand Response Chapter 6: Generating Resources and Energy Storage Technologies Chapter 7: Transmission Chapter 8: Direct Use of Natural Gas Chapter 9: Developing a Resource Strategy Chapter 10: Resource Strategy Chapter 11: Climate Change Issues Chapter 12: Capacity and Flexibility Resources Chapter 13: Bonneville’s Obligations Chapter 14: Regional Adequacy Standards Appendices A. Fuel Price Forecast B. Economic Forecast C. Demand Forecast D. Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast E. Conservation Supply Curve Development F. Model Conservation Standards G. MCS Cost-Effectiveness for Residences H. Demand Response I. Generating Resources J. Regional Portfolio Model K. Smart Grid L. Climate Change and Power Planning M. Integrating Fish & Wildlife and Power Planning N. Financial Assumptions and Discount Rate O. Calculation of Revenue Requirements and Customer Bills P. Methodology for Determining Quantifiable Environmental Costs and Benefits Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1 Dealing with Uncertainty and Volatility.........................................................................................2 Natural Gas ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Background................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices ...................................................................................... 5 Northwest Natural Gas Supplies and Price............................................................................. 7 Oil ................................................................................................................................................. 12 Background............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range .......................................................................................................... 13 Coal............................................................................................................................................... 15 Coal Commodity Prices ............................................................................................................ 15 Coal Price Forecast ................................................................................................................... 17 Appendix A1: Medium Case Fuel Price Forecast Tables………………………………………. 19 Appendix A2: Low Case Fuel Price Forecast Tables…………………………………………... 23 Appendix A3: Medium-Low Fuel Price Forecast Tables………………………………………. 27 Appendix A4: Medium-High Fuel Price Forecast Tables……………………………………… 31 Appendix A5: High Case Fuel Price Forecast Tables………………………………………….. 35 Appendix A6: Fuel Price Forecasting Model…………………………………………………... 39 INTRODUCTION Since the millennium, the trend for fuel prices has been one of uncertainty and volatility. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approaching $150 some days. Natural gas prices at the wellhead averaged $2.37 per million Btu in January 2000. In June 2008, the average wellhead price of natural gas averaged $12.60. Even Powder River Basin coal prices, which have traditionally been relatively stable, increased by about 50 percent in 2008. Fuel prices weakened significantly in the last half of 2008, but remain high by standards of the 1990s. Fuels are not the only commodities that have experienced a period of very high prices; metals, concrete, plastics, and other construction materials have all experienced increased prices in the last few years. Factors contributing to higher commodity prices in general, and to fuel prices in particular, include: rapid world economic growth, declining value of the dollar, slow response of conventional energy supplies to higher prices, continuing conflict in the Middle East, uncertainty about the direction of climate change policy, and changing commodity market dynamics. The recession has also moderated these other commodity prices. The relative contribution of these factors to increased prices is uncertain, as is the direction of change for many of them. Conventional sources of oil and natural gas in North America are expected to be difficult to expand significantly. Growth in supplies, therefore, will increasingly depend on the development of unconventional sources and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. With the higher natural gas prices of recent years and technological improvements in drilling, nonconventional supplies of natural gas have expanded rapidly. A significant amount of LNG import capability has been added and has contributed significant new supplies in times of high Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Sixth Power Plan prices. Both of these sources are expanding, but all new investments in energy infrastructure are controversial. In addition, the investments can be slowed by large uncertainties concerning energy climate change policies. At the same time, high prices have also brought about changes on the demand side of the market. High prices encourage conservation in the sense of using less, and they also create incentives to invest in energy-efficient technologies. Such responses to high prices set in motion the forces to reduce prices. Over time, these cycles are likely to reach higher high points and higher low points, forming a series of upward-stepping cycles. Investments in new supplies and energy efficiency also tend to follow these cycles. Expectations that prices will fall from high points in the cycle make consistent investments in supply and energy efficiency less robust. Accurately forecasting future fuel prices is an impossible task. The history of such forecasts is that even long-term forecasts tend to assume that current conditions will, to a large extent, continue. During periods of high fuel prices, forecasts tend to increase, and during periods of low prices, they tend to decrease. The Council’s practice has been to recognize the inherent uncertainty and build power plans that minimize the risk from price forecasts that turn out to be wrong. DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY In spite of their uncertainty, fuel prices are an important consideration for electricity planning. Fuel prices affect both the demand for, and the cost of, electricity. As an important determinant of electricity cost, they also affect the cost-effective amount of efficiency improvement through the avoided cost of alternative generation resources. The uncertainty and volatility of fuel prices create risks for the Northwest power system. These risks and others are addressed in the Council’s electricity planning. The range of trend forecasts discussed here represents only one aspect of fuel price uncertainty addressed in the Council’s power plan. The low to high trend forecasts of fuel prices are meant to reflect current analysis and views on the likely range of future prices, but the plan’s analysis also considers variations expected to occur around those trends. In the Fifth Power Plan this additional volatility was only applied to natural gas prices. This was because oil prices are insignificant as either a demand alternative to electricity or a generation fuel. Coal prices are a significant determinant of electricity costs because of existing coal-fired generation, and coal is also a potential future source of energy. However, coal prices had not experienced the same level of uncertainty and volatility as oil and natural gas prices, and were therefore not considered to be a major source of risk and uncertainty. The plan reflects three distinct types of uncertainty in natural gas prices: (1) uncertainty about long-term trends, (2) price excursions due to disequilibrium of supply and demand that may occur over a number of years, and (3) short-term and seasonal volatility due to such factors as temperatures, storms, or natural gas storage levels. The forecasts discuss only the first uncertainty. Shorter-term variations are addressed in the Council’s Resource Portfolio Model analysis. There are additional uncertainties to the cost of fuel from the effects of climate policies, such as CO2 costs from taxes or a cap and trade structure. These additional costs are explicitly treated in A-2 Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Sixth Power Plan the Council’s portfolio model and affect the cost of using various fuels, but are not a part of the commodity prices discussed in this appendix. NATURAL GAS Background The Council’s forecast of natural gas prices starts with a national level commodity price, the average natural gas wellhead price in the lower-48 states. A look at the past behavior of these prices gives perspective for the forecasts. Figure A-1 shows wellhead natural gas prices
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