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Fear, Light, and M&A in the COVID-19 World

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Fear, Light, and M&A in the COVID-19 World Our April Report on M&A in the FinTech, Data and Analytics Industry Fear, Light, and M&A in the COVID-19 World 01 Our April Report on M&A in the FinTech, Data and Analytics Industry Fear, Light, and M&A in the COVID-19 World Dear Clients and Friends, Our latest report on values and M&A trends in the eleven segments of the FinTech, Data and Analytics world that we follow is here. It’s been a heck of a month. We are up to around one million cases of COVID-19 worldwide – including 200,000 in the US. More than 50,000 people have died globally – including 13,000 in Italy, 9,000 in Spain, and 4,000 in the US. In some places, COVID-19 is doubling every three to seven days. It is already overwhelming some medical systems and the forecast is for US deaths to reach 200,000 or more. That may be less than the 650,000 in the US who die each year from heart disease, but it is a lot more than the 23,000 expected to die in the US from seasonal flu this year. As you will see in the report here, valuations for companies in our world are not immune from this crisis. As businesses are shuttered and workers furloughed, some buyers and investors have reassessed risk. Values are now about 20% below January – not as much as much as you might expect – possibly for good reason The experts tell us that this crisis is likely to be over in months. With that in mind, many financial sponsors and corporations, flush with cash, remain on the hunt for opportunities. While compromised companies should hold off going to market, several of our stronger clients remain in discussions with potential partners. This week our client, Barcelona-based Strands Labs, SA, agreed to be acquired CRIF S.p.A, one of Italy’s largest credit bureaus and a leading open banking company. We don’t have the answers. We know that fear has pushed many governments to shut down much of their economies – hoping that the damage caused by shuttered businesses, soaring unemployment and increased national debt – and personal debt – will not be worse than the disease we seek to cure. When this crisis does end, history has shown that pent up demand will spur economic activity; most (not all) businesses will recover, and employment will rise. There is light at the end of this tunnel. Our aim is to help our clients be ready, when it shines. Our latest M&A report can be found here. A few of the more interesting transactions over the past month include: . CRIF S.p.A. acquired M&A client Strands Labs (Digital banking) . Bakkt Holding raised $300 million in a Series B funding round from . Alignment Healthcare raised $135 million in a Series C funding Intercontinental Exchange and other investors (Bitcoin futures trading round from Fidelity Investments, T. Rowe Price, and Durable Capital platform) Partners (Insur Tech) . Ada Support raised $44 million in a Series B funding round led by . Dentsu Aegis Network agreed to acquire Merkle for $98 million Accel (Chatbot Solution) (Data Analytics) . Nets agreed to acquire PeP for €405 million (Payments Tech) Sincerely, Ken Marlin | Founder & Managing Member | Marlin & Associates 570 Lexington Ave | 48th Floor | New York, NY 10022 | marlinllc.com P.S. My book, “The Marine Corps Way To Win on Wall Street” does a pretty good job of showing what we do that is different than most firms – and why. Marlin & Associates Securities LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Marlin & Associates Holding LLC, is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a FINRA/SIPC member firm (www.finra.org.) 02 Our April Report on M&A in the FinTech, Data and Analytics Industry Contents Mergers and Acquisitions Transaction Activity 4 Bank Tech 5 Capital Markets Tech 6 Data & Analytics – Financial Services 7 Digital Tech 8 Information Services 9 InsurTech 10 Mortgage Tech 11 Payments Tech 12 Regulatory Tech 13 Securities Exchange 14 Wealth Tech 15 Sectors’ Relative Multiples 16 Sectors’ Relative Operating Metrics 17 Clients Choose Us To Advise Them On Their Most Important Strategic Decisions 18 Contents Our April Report on M&A in the FinTech, Data and Analytics Industry Mergers and Acquisitions Transaction Activity Software and Services Transaction Activity (1) Software and Services Transaction Multiples (1) $35.0 800 60.0x 55.6x $30.3 700 $30.0 $28.6 50.0x $25.7 600 $25.0 40.8x $22.0 40.0x 36.7x 500 35.5x $19.2 $20.0 $18.5 30.0x $16.8 400 30.0x 27.0x $15.0 24.4x 300 $10.9 20.0x $10.0 15.0x 200 10.0x $5.0 6.0x 100 5.4x 4.6x 3.4x 3.9x 3.4x 2.6x 2.3x $0.0 - 0.0x Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Total Transaction Value No. Transactions EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue Source: Marlin & Associates, Capital IQ, and public sources. All market and operating data are as of 03/31/20. Note: Mid-market M&A defined as transactions with enterprise values below $1 billion. 04 Contents Our April Report on M&A in the FinTech, Data and Analytics Industry Bank Tech . Acquirer(s) / Recurring (subscription based) businesses and those that provide mission-critical Target / Issuer Description services should get a leg up against transaction-based platforms. Investor(s) B2B should withstand the downturn better than B2C models. 3/30/20: CRIF S.p.A. (Bologna, Italy) agreed to acquire Strands Labs (Barcelona, Spain) for an undisclosed sum. Strands . Bundling value added services should accelerate and can help realize higher LTVs. develops innovative FinTech software that enables banks to Emphasis will be on diversifying end verticals, product sets, service offer personalized digital banking experience to their customers. offerings, and technology stack. Cost efficiencies and management should become key as should focus on 3/24/20: Arkose Labs (San Francisco) raised $22 million in a profitability and self-sustainability. Series B funding round led by M12 (San Francisco, CA). Arkose Labs develops a platform that detects and mitigates online fraud. See our recent deal announcement for the sale of Strands to CRIF. Separately, some 3/18/20: boro (Lansing, MI) raised $12 million in a Series A notable capital raises were the $22 million Series B by Arkose Labs and the $12 funding round led by LexinFintech (Shenzhen, China). boro is a million Series A by boro. provider of affordable loans and financial education to students that have largely been ignored by traditional lenders. 5 Year LTM Revenue & EBITDA Multiples 12.0x 33x 10.5x 29x 9.0x (USD millions) Market Enterprise EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Revenue Growth EBITDA Margin 25x 7.5x Company Cap Value CY2019A CY2020E CY2019A CY2020E CY2019A CY2020E CY2019A CY2020E 21x 6.0x EV / EBITDA EV EV / Revenue FIS $ 74,969 $ 94,620 9.2 x 7.0x 27.8x 16.1x 23% 30% 33% 44% 4.5x 17x Fiserv 64,508 88,135 8.7 x 5.5x 24.9x 15.1x 75% 57% 35% 36% 3.0x 13x Jack Henry & Associates 11,910 11,908 7.7 x 6.8x 28.0x 21.1x 6% 13% 27% 32% Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Temenos 9,449 10,472 10.8 x 9.3x 38.8x 22.6x 16% 16% 28% 41% EV / LTM Revenue EV / LTM EBITDA Q2 Holdings 2,860 3,197 10.1 x 7.8x (97.1x) 182.3x 31% 30% (10%) 4% ACI Worldwide 2,805 4,136 3.3 x 2.8x 20.5x 9.6x 25% 19% 16% 29% Oracle Financial Services 2,318 1,768 2.5 x 2.6x 5.7x 5.6x 3% (7%) 43% 47% 5 Year M&A Bank Tech Index vs. S&P 500, base = 100 NCR Corporation 2,287 6,230 0.9 x 1.0x 8.0x 6.8x 8% (9%) 11% 15% 280 Bottomline Technologies 1,613 1,651 3.9 x 3.5x 43.6x 15.6x 7% 11% 9% 23% Virtusa 848 1,169 0.9 x 0.9x 12.0x 7.9x 22% 8% 8% 11% 250 Aptitude Software Group 246 207 2.6 x 2.6x 13.5x 13.3x 19% 1% 19% 20% 220 Trim Mean $ 10,955 $ 14,296 5.4 x 4.4 x 19.9 x 14.2 x 17.2% 13.4% 20.7% 27.8% 190 Median $ 2,805 $ 4,136 3.9 x 3.5 x 20.5 x 15.1 x 18.6% 12.6% 19.4% 28.9% 160 130 100 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 M&A Banking Software Index S&P 500 Source: Marlin & Associates, Capital IQ, and public sources. All market and operating data are as of 03/31/2020. These companies are only a sample of firms in the sector as M&A defines it. M&A calculates Trim Mean and Median multiples for the sector over time using data from a set of companies that M&A believes to be reasonable and may not be identical to the set reflected above. Trim Mean excludes the highest and lowest multiple of the data set. 05 Contents Our April Report on M&A in the FinTech, Data and Analytics Industry Capital Markets Tech .
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