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GOP Incumbents Brace for Primary Losses, but Survive So This issue brought to you by GOP Incumbents Brace for Primary Losses, VOLUME 39, NO. 6 But Survive So Far MARCH 25, 2016 By Nathan L. Gonzales As Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and even 2016 Senate Ratings Ben Carson harnessed the energy of anti- Pure Toss-Up establishment voters in the Republican presidential race, GOP incumbents have Johnson (R-WI) grown worried they will be simultaneously FL Open (Rubio, R) swept out of office. But in spite of the NV Open (Reid, D) volatility at the top of the ticket, Senate and House incumbents have Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat Toss-Up/Tilt Republican survived their primaries, at least so far. The first test was Super Tuesday on March 1, when allies of Kirk (R-IL) Ayotte (R-NH) Republican Sen. Richard Shelby (who has been in office since Ronald Portman (R-OH) Reagan was president) and GOP Reps. Bradley Byrne and Martha Roby Toomey (R-PA) were concerned that Trump and Cruz supporters would vote against Lean Democrat Lean Republican “establishment” candidates down the primary ballot. But Shelby prevailed with 65 percent over Jonathan McConnell (28 Bennet (D-CO) Burr (R-NC) percent) and three other candidates. Byrne defeated Dean Young 60-40 Democrat Favored Republican Favored percent (the two men faced off in a much closer race in 2014) in the 1st Blunt (R-MO) District. And Roby was renominated, 66-28 percent, over local tea party McCain (R-AZ) leader Becky Gerritson. Shelby received plenty of attention for a concerted digital advertising IN Open (Coats, R) effort, but overall he outspent his opponents by millions of dollars. Safe Democrat Safe Republican Roby’s allies were hoping to make an example of Gerritson by defeating Blumenthal (D-CT) Boozman (R-AR) her soundly. They were successful, but it’s not clear whether other Leahy (D-VT) Isakson (R-GA) insurgent candidates around the country were aware enough of the race to be discouraged. Murray (D-WA) Lankford (R-OK) Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas did not have the massive campaign Schatz (D-HI) Crapo (R-ID) account that Shelby enjoys, but still faced down primary challenger Schumer (D-NY) Grassley (R-IA) Curtis Coleman 76-24 percent in the Republican primary on March 1. Wyden (D-OR) Hoeven (R-ND) Two weeks later in North Carolina, Sen. Richard Burr defeated Greg CA Open (Boxer, D) Lee (R-UT) Brannon 61-25 percent in the GOP primary. Brannon finished second in the 2014 primary with 27 percent against Thom Tillis and is now MD Open (Mikulski, D) Moran (R-KS) GOP DEM challenging114th Rep. ReneeCongress Ellmers in54 the 2nd46 District primary, which was Murkowski (R-AK) re-scheduled for June 7 after the court ordered a new map to be drawn. Not up this cycle 30 36 GOP DEM Paul (R-KY) While Burr’s primary received the most attention on March 15, Ohio 114th Congress 54 46 Scott (R-SC) Sen. Rob PortmanCurrently won Safe his primary with 828 percent and Illinois Sen. Not up this cycle 30 36 Shelby (R-AL) Mark Kirk prevailedCompetitive with 71 percent10 on the2 same day. In the wake of senators stumbling and even completely falling Currently Safe 14 8 Thune (R-SD) in primaries over the last six years, it’s remarkable for the handful Competitive 10 2 LA Open (Vitter, R) of senators to win their initial races with an average of 71 percent — Takeovers in Italics # moved benefi ting Democrats, especially amid Trump’s organic support. Even without Portman and * moved benefi ting Republicans Continued on page 9 RothenbergGonzales.com ROTHENBERGGONZALES.COM January 9, 2015 3 The Dust Clears: 2016 Presidential Ratings Hillary vs. Trump or Cruz (Electoral Votes) Pure Toss-Up (69) By Stuart Rothenberg Colorado (9) Ohio (18) The most bizarre presidential race in the history of the universe is Florida (29) Virginia (13) starting to gel. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead looks solid Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (14) Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (15) enough, and she appears to be pivoting to the general election. Bernie New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Sanders will win more delegates and carry more states, but Clinton’s Wisconsin (10) margin, including her huge advantage with superdelegates, means that barring some dramatic news, she will be her party’s nominee. Lean Democratic (32) Lean Republican (0) On the GOP side, there are two possible outcomes. Either Donald Iowa (6) Trump gets the 1,237 delegates he needs to be nominated (or gets close enough to that number so that he can’t be denied), or he comes up short Nevada (6) on the first ballot and the convention picks the eventual nominee. Pennsylvania (20) While talk of a deadlocked convention has names like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney swirling, it is difficult to see the convention Democrat Favored (38) Republican Favored (48) nominating someone other than either Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Michigan (16) Arizona (11) Trump leads Cruz 741 delegates to 461, according to CNN’s estimates. Minnesota (10) Georgia (16) Ohio Gov. John Kasich trails with 145 delegates, putting him even behind New Mexico (5) Indiana (11) Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who exited the race with 166 delegates. Oregon (7) Missouri (10) Trump is the only hopeful with any chance of hitting a majority when the primary process ends on June 7. His prospects for gathering Safe Democratic (179) Safe Republican (143) a majority of delegates depends on how well he shows in upcoming primaries in Wisconsin (April 5), New York (April 19), five Northeastern California (55) Rhode Island (4) Alabama (9) Oklahoma (7) states (April 26) and California (June 7). Connecticut (7) Vermont (3) Alaska (3) South Carolina (9) Cruz continues to win support, or at least favorable comments, from Delaware (3) Washington (12) Arkansas (6) South Dakota (3) establishment candidates, including Jeb Bush and Rubio, who see Trump DC (3) Idaho (4) Tennessee (11) as a greater long-term threat to the GOP. Trump’s positions on trade, Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Texas (38) spending, entitlements and national security are significantly at odds with most in the Republican Party, and insiders are clearly more worried that he Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) Utah (6) will fracture the party than that he will merely lose the November election. Maine (4) Louisiana (8) West Virginia (5) Cruz has been asking for a head-to-head fight with Trump, but it isn’t Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) Wyoming (3) clear that he can win that contest. His appeal in the Northeast is limited, Massachusetts (11) Montana (3) and his prospects in six New England and Mid-Atlantic states that still have primaries are very uncertain. New Jersey (14) Nebraska (5) At this point, Kasich seems more a distraction than a serious contender. New York (29) North Dakota (3) The GOP nomination isn’t likely to be decided until June 7 at the earliest. 270 needed to win @InsideElections facebook.com/RPRPolitics Nathan L. Gonzales Stuart Rothenberg Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Founding Editor & Publisher Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @stupolitics The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is a nonpartisan publication that analyzes, handicaps and reports on U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections and presidential politics. It neither endorses candidates nor advocates positions in matters of public policy. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is published 24 times annually. Annual Subscription Rates: Individual - $249 + sales tax • Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) • Gold License - $5,000 (tax included) Copyright 2016, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 77 K Street NE • 7th Floor • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 RothenbergGonzales.com 2 March 25, 2016 NONPARTISAN AnALYSIS OF POLITICS AND ELECTIONS Is an Anti-Trump Wave Putting the House Into Play? By Nathan L. Gonzales The closer Donald Trump or Ted Cruz gets to winning the more narrow than it appears. Republican presidential nomination, the more Democrats talk Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben about control of the House being in play. But even though Ray Luján held a recent press conference to talk about the Trump the duo may deliver Democrats an electoral wave of historic effect and was asked to name specific districts. The New Mexico proportions, it’s still not clear whether one will develop or whether congressman mentioned districts such as Colorado’s 6th, Virginia’s 10th, Democrats are in position to ride it. Nevada’s 3rd, Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th, and California’s 25th. Those According to the most common narrative, Trump is on pace to lose are all districts which would, or at least should,VOLUME have been competitive 38, NO. 2 the presidential election by a wide margin. He trails Hillary Clinton by JAN. 23, 2015 Continued on page 4 an average margin of 9 points (and as much as 13 points) in hypothetical general election matchups. That means we could be headed for the most lopsided presidential race since 1984, when President Ronald Reagan 2016 House Ratings was re-elected by 18 points. Democrats’ dream is a replay of the 1964 election, when President Pure Toss-Up (2D, 10R) Lyndon B. Johnson defeated conservative GOP Sen. Barry Goldwater 61- AZ 1 (Open; Kirkpatrick, D) MN 2 (Open; Kline, R) 39 percent and Democrats gained 37 House seats. FL 18 (Open; Murphy, D) NH 1 (Guinta, R) Trump’s weakness this year has a lot to do with his terrible favorability FL 26 (Curbelo, R) NV 3 (Open; Heck, R) ratings, as Stu pointed IA 3 (Young, R) NY 22 (Open; Hanna, R) out in a recent Roll IL 10 (Dold, R) NY 24 (Katko, R) GOP DEM Call column.
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