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THQ Pitch IC

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THQ Pitch IC Structure Part 1: Introduction to THQ Part 2: Market & Positioning A) The Games Market & Competitors B) Positioning Part 3: Investment Case A) Strenghts in the case B) Weaknesses Summary of Pt. 2 & 3: Future expected margins & growth Part 4: Valuation Part 5: Appendix Target Price: 186 Investment Case SEK, 24 % up from today + Fast growth with proven acquisition strategy + Newly acquired Koch Media + Strong management + Both owned brand titles and publishing titles + Growing console market - 15/16 upcoming titles will be on console Risks - Large part of ip portfolio doesn’t generate income yet. - Weak presence in fast growing mobile games market. Part 1 Introduction to THQ Portfolio Business Model Sequels Increased Asset Care Launch sequels Distribution Port to new platforms Add digital channels Launch remasterings and Add and reactivate new versions Brand value physical after THQ acquisition distribution Launch of DLCs channels Attractive price on acquisition target THQ acquires a Result: Brand brand Brand polishing value increses Part 2 – Market & Position A) The Gaming Market & Competitors Global Games Market by Segment YoY Market share 2017 à 2020 CAGR 28 % $32.3Bn à $34.4Bn 1,4 % Total 2017 2020 29 % $33.3Bn à $37.3Bn 3,7 % $116.0Bn $143.5Bn + 7,35 % YoY CAGR 43 % $50.4Bn à $72.3Bn 23,3 % Market Layout & Positioning Developer Publisher Distributor Platform PC Console Mobile • Freemium, Purchase + DCL, • Purchase + DCL, • Freemium, Browser • Digital & Physical • Digital • Digital & Physical distribution distribution • Price: $0-2.99 • Price: $0-79 • Price: $79 Types of Gamers Casual Gamers Hardcore Gamers • 50 % of all revenue comes from 0,19% of • Owns on average 18 games. users • Spends 2h and 32 minutes everyday playing • 1.9% of players makes a purchase in a month their games. with real money • High engagement and will most likely buy the • Of paying customers, 64% make one sequel purchase, while only 6.5% make five or more • The typical paying player makes 1.8 purchases, averaging $13.82 per purchase • Average session last 7 minutes. PC/Console Market 6,59 % 3 % 2,87 % Other Mobile vs PC/Console Mobile PC & Console ≈ Attractiveness In Segments • Mobile is growing the fastest among all segments. • The medium of acquisition will be more important than the platform. Physical à Digital. 66 % of all purchases will be digital by 2020. • AAA-titles leads to recurring revenue and market share. • Owning the whole value chain, from development to publishing is the common denominator amongst the biggest market participants. Competitors Company Market Cap. (bn USD) Brands World of Warcraft, Call of 49,66 Duty, Destiny 36,25 Battlefield, FIFA, The Sims GTA, Red Dead Redemtion, 11,07 2K 3,08 The Witcher, Cyberpunk Part 2 B) Market Position THQ Developer Distributor Publisher Hardcore Gamers AAA-titles & IP Value acquisitions & asset care Growth & Future Market Share Global IP Full scale Licensing & model Mobile Adding Studios More IP Asset Care & Sequels Distribution & Marketing 2017 Future Value of Future Titles 61 % of revenue in 2017 came from newly launched games, up from 41 % in 2016. 36 projects is currently under development. 10 Million is how many views the trailer to Dead Island 2 has on Youtube. New highly anticipated games Part 3 – Investment Case A) Strenghts In the Case Why THQ Nordic? Unique Acquisition Strategy Key attributes of acquisition targets: 1. They are struggling, many of them are close to bankruptcy 2. They have either a strong brand name or a portfolio of previously successful titles Revenue Growth Comparison Strengths • Strong management including Lars Wingefors • Intellectual property and AAA titles • Good track record of previous acquisitions Notable Acquisitions • Exclusive license to four AAA-titles • Upcoming AAA-titles • Owns three developers with two AAA-titles • Biomutant has millions of views on • Gives increased power in publishing and Youtube, is aimed to be the next big distribution franchise for the company. • “Cheap” acquisition, Koch had a failed launch Opportunities • Koch media and acquired Intellectual property • Console market growth • New sales platform called Robot Cache Bargaining Power and Long-Term Sustainable Business Model • Threat of new entrants is low • Threat of substitues is quite low • Power of suppliers is low Part 3 B) Risks Risks (Plans for the future) • Weak presence in mobile gaming market • Weak growth in PC gaming market • Large part of ip portfolio still doesn’t bring any income Summary Part 2 & 3 Future Growth & Margins THQ In 10 Years Growth & Margins: The PC/Console gaming will grow and the current 30 % revenue growth will be hard to keep as they get bigger. We see huge potential in growth being higher than competitors, given the current acquistion and growth strategy. This is backed by the increasing revenue in released titles. This will lead to increased future margins. Additional to a growing PC/Console they will potentially enter the mobile market. If THQ could find an interesting acquistion target with or IP within this segment the value chain will be be even cheaper, which could increase margins further. Delopment, growth and margins 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 % Sales growth %, EBITDA margin %, EBIT margin Development 18 000 000 16 000 000 14 000 000 12 000 000 10 000 000 8 000 000 6 000 000 4 000 000 2 000 000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Sales Earnings Before Interest + Taxes (EBIT) The assumptions in the model are based on pro-forma numbers released by THQ and the performance of the main competitors (Take2, EA and Activision). The long-term levels are converging towards the levels seen by these main competitors. The long-term sales converge towards the market growth rate of around 6%. NWC/Sales 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 -0,05 -0,1 -0,15 -0,2 -0,25 -0,3 -0,35 The Koch acquisition will boost sales and profit as well as have a negative impact on capex and NWC. The increased NWC level is brought down in 2018 as Koch is integrated into THQ and the combined entity gets more negotiating power with distributors as Walmart etc. This effect is projected by THQ to mainly take place in 2018 as that’s when the majority of Koch will be integrated. The NWC/sales level has been negative historically and is projected to settle just below zero. This level is supported by the business model as THQ is in a employee intense business where it normally delay payment to employees, boosting payables, while receivables are kept relatively low thanks to an increasing importance of online distributors such as Steam, Xbox and Playstation that put pressure on physical distributors such as Walmart, Amazon and Gamestop. The relatively large number of different distributors available also impacts the agreements positively in THQ’s favour. Investments/Sales 0,5 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 The investment level will peak in 2017 at 0.45x sales related to the Koch transaction but will settle on a lower level moving forward as acquisitions with the same magnitude as the Koch transaction won’t take place every year. (every third year, most likely divided over different years as seen in the DCF model). Investments/sales will settle on 20% which is in line with THQ’s main competitors. Debt to equity 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 The leverage is modelled to stay constant in accordance with statements from THQ after the Koch acquisition. The level of the debt/equity will be around 1.1 going forward and this is seen as sustainable on the long-term considering THQ’s size, sector and strategy. Return on capital 50,00% 45,00% 40,00% 35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 ROE ROCE adj ROA adj When it comes to return on capital, ROE is boosted by the higher leverage following the Koch acquisition. Overall the return rises as Koch is turned around and THQ’s margins settle at their long-term levels. In the end the return decreases as THQ is projected to converge towards the market growth rate while margins decrease somewhat. Sales increase/invested SEK in new businesses 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Bear Base Bull The success of the acquisition strategy is shown in the effectiveness of THQ’s investments in generating revenue. This is illustrated in that the bull case assumes that THQ manages to buy the same businesses cheaper (less negative investment cash flows) while succeeding better with its acquired brands. Simultaneously, the bear case assumes more expensive targets with a bit more limited success per brand. I don’t assume that any of THQ’s coming investments will be as successful as the one in Koch, which leaves room for an upside with less negative investment cash flows or higher revenues with the similar sales increase per SEK invested as in 2017 at almost 2.5 SEK in sales per invested SEK.
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