Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study

Version 2.1

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CONTENTS

PREFACE 1 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 1.1 The Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study 3 1.2 Study approach 4 1.3 The challenge: barriers to mobility and accessibility 5 1.4 Opportunities for future use of the rail line 6 1.5 Reviewing the reasons for suspending rail services 8 1.6 Public transport’s role in tourism 9 1.7 Key findings 10 1.8 Recommendations 15 2 INTRODUCTION 18 2.1 The purpose of this document 18 2.2 The study area 18 2.3 The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line 20 2.4 Previous studies and investigations 20 2.5 Terms of Reference 22 2.6 Methodology 23 3 CUSTOMERS AND STAKEHOLDERS 24 3.1 The importance of customers 24 3.2 Stakeholder engagement 25 4 RESPONDING TO THE NSW FRAMEWORK OF PLANNING AND INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK 27 4.1 NSW Planning Framework 27 4.2 The Northern Rivers Regional Action Plan 27 4.3 Long Term Transport Master Plan 28 4.4 Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan 29 4.5 Regional land use planning 29 5 THE EXISTING TRANSPORT NETWORK 30 5.1 Road network 30 5.2 Bus network 32 5.3 Community transport 39 5.4 Taxis 40 5.5 Air travel 40 5.6 Key findings 41 6 CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSPORT NEEDS 42 6.1 Current travel in the region 42 6.2 Future needs 51 6.3 Key findings 60 7 THE ROLE OF THE RAIL LINE 62 7.1 Background 62 7.2 The condition of the rail line 63 7.3 Technical analysis of options 67

7.4 Other options 79 7.5 Reviewing the reasons for suspending rail services 81 7.6 Key findings 83 8 CONCLUSIONS 85 8.1 Needs based approach 85 8.2 Condition based approach 86 9 RECOMMENDATIONS 87 9.1 Rail 87 9.2 Bus 87 10 BIBLIOGRAPHY 90 APPENDIX A TERMS OF REFERENCE 93 APPENDIX B SAMPLE COUNTRYLINK SERVICES 99 APPENDIX C DEMAND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS 101 APPENDIX D RAIL MODE OPTION ASSESSMENT 107 APPENDIX E DEMAND MODELLING 109 APPENDIX F ASSESSMENT AGAINST MASTER PLAN OBJECTIVES 115 APPENDIX G ASSESSMENT OF ROUTE OPTIONS 121 APPENDIX H COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS 123 APPENDIX I ESTIMATED REPAIR COSTS 125 APPENDIX J RAIL TRAIL CASE STUDIES 127 APPENDIX K PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATES 129

PREFACE

This Transport Study investigates the feasibility, benefits and costs of reinstating passenger services on the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line in the context of the current and future transport needs of people living and working in the Casino to Murwillumbah study corridor and the potential connections to the South East Queensland public transport network. This study has been conducted in accordance with the Terms of Reference developed by Transport for NSW in March 2012, following community feedback to the NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan. It will be used by the NSW Government to determine the future of the rail line and to inform the Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan.

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 The Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study The Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study (hereafter, Transport Study) investigates the feasibility, benefits and costs of reinstating passenger services on the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line in the context of the current and future transport needs of people living and working in the Casino to Murwillumbah study corridor and the potential connections to the South East Queensland public transport network. This study will inform the Regional Transport Plan for Northern Rivers, which is currently being developed, and refers to other detailed transport planning documents as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 The relationship of this study to other transport planning documents

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Figure 2 Casino to Murwillumbah study area including the location of the rail line

1.2 Study approach This report is a summary of a number of investigations conducted by the Transport Study team during 2012 to enable the study terms of reference to be met. These investigations include: • Existing Rail Line Asset Condition Survey undertaken by consultants, Arup (Arup: Stage 1, 2012). • Current needs analysis including review of previous reports and existing studies and recently commissioned household travel surveys for the major towns.

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• Development of a high level strategic network model, to quantify potential travel demand between 2011 and 2031 associated with options considered for the Casino to Murwillumbah rail corridor. The purpose was to determine future patronage growth at a pre-feasibility study level. • Identification of public transport options to meet current and future travel demand. This included reinstating the existing rail corridor for a number of operating scenarios, use of the corridor for other modes (bus and light rail) and improvements to the existing bus network • Engineering feasibility assessment of heavy rail corridors to South East Queensland (Gold Coast Airport), connecting to the existing rail corridor at Byron Bay, Chinderah and Murwillumbah was undertaken (Arup: Stage 4, 2012), to inform the consideration of long term options. The Transport Study has adopted a ‘needs first’ approach, meaning that the current and future transport needs of the study area were assessed without influence of the findings of the assessment of the condition of the existing rail line.

1.3 The challenge: barriers to mobility and accessibility The Northern Rivers is a relatively sparsely populated region of around 287,000 residents. It borders South East Queensland, a region with similar area but with over 10 times the population (ABS, 2011). The population of the Northern Rivers is estimated to grow to around 367,000 in 2031 with an increase in housing units from 129,000 to 161,000 (Department of Premier and Cabinet, 2012). The majority of growth will be experienced in the coastal corridor in the area between Ballina and Byron, and in particular along the Tweed coast and in Tweed Heads. There are a number of challenges to efficient accessibility and mobility within the region including the study area: • Dispersed population. The region consists of several large towns separated by considerable distance with most social services existing in designated regional centres of Lismore and Tweed. Tweed Heads is also strongly linked to the Gold Coast for employment opportunities and economic growth • Widely dispersed social services, stemming mostly from the concentration of social services in towns, which is typical for regional areas. • A transport system reliant on private vehicle use, a consequence of low density population and large distances between regional centres. • An increasing dependent population. The Northern Rivers has proportionally the highest number of people not in employment in NSW. The unemployment rate is also higher than the State average. While requiring greater access to social services, those over 65 and under 18 are also less likely to have reliable private vehicle transport. This presents particular difficulties for young people in accessing education, training and employment, and participating in sport, recreation and cultural activities. • Worsening levels of transport disadvantage, where both the dependent population and unemployed people do not have regular access to cars, and public transport cannot provide a real alternative. • Existing public transport is limited. The Northern Rivers bus network consists of a number of private bus companies operating town to town services as well as within towns. Bus services are largely planned around school services, limiting public transport options to key social services such as hospitals and education facilities. There is also little timetable and service integration, and coupled with relatively high fares this provides further disincentive to potential customers to use public transport.

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The principal public transport challenge facing the Northern Rivers can therefore be summarised as a need to provide reliable access to social services for an increasing dependent population, across a widely dispersed area, particularly for those who do not have access to private vehicles.

1.4 Opportunities for future use of the rail line The Transport Study team considered a range of potential opportunities offered by the rail line. These are summarised in Table 1, along with the outcome from each assessment.

Table 1 Options considered in relation to existing and future study corridor transport needs

Issue Long list of options Outcome

Mode • Bus Rapid Transit, utilising the rail • Bus Rapid Transit, Guided Bus and Mode options that could corridor with road replacing the rail line. Light Rail Transit eliminated during utilise the existing rail • Guided bus, where modified buses can preliminary assessment. Bus options corridor and/or assets. travel on both road and specially built discarded because costs associated track. with converting corridor. Light rail does not provide any additional • Light Rail Transit, utilising the existing benefits to railcar shuttle. corridor and some of the infrastructure. • Service and staging options tested • Railcar shuttle, diesel powered light on heavy rail (XPT) and railcar vehicles operating independently of the shuttle only. main North Coast line. • Heavy rail, heavy rail cars similar to XPT. Service and staging • Base case: existing public transport Year 20111 Alternative service services (ie current bus services). • Options 1A and 1B result in a frequencies and • Option 1A: Once-a-day XPT service, reduction in public transport mode termination points. Casino to Murwillumbah. share. Passenger services • Option 1B: Once-a-day XPT service, • Options 2A and 2B generate more only. Casino to Lismore. patronage than 1A and 1B, with 2A • Option 2A: Nine-a-day rail shuttle being greater. service, Casino to Murwillumbah. • Option 3 generates the highest • Option 2B: Nine-a-day rail shuttle mode shift from cars to public service, Casino to Byron. transport. Overall though, the increase is marginal at 1.39 per • Option 3: additional CountryLink bus cent. services within corridor. Year 2031 Note: all options are additional services to base case. • Option 3 is the best performing option. • Increase in public transport mode share is marginal at 1.38 per cent. Against Transport Master Plan objectives • Option 3 is performs best, particularly around liveability, supporting economic growth and quality of service.

1 2011 has been used because as the base year to draw on the most accurate population statistics available.

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Issue Long list of options Outcome

Heavy rail route Refer to Figure 30. Segments passing • All segments are feasible from an options to South East near or through: engineering perspective. Queensland • Segment A: Coolangatta, Banora Point, • Segment J is the lowest cost option Assessment made on Chinderah. in absolute terms, followed by C and engineering feasibility. • Segment B: Coolangatta, Tweed A. Heads, Chinderah. • Segment C is the lower cost on a • Segment C Yelgun, Cudgen Creek, $25 million/km basis, followed by J Kingscliff, Chinderah. and H. • Segment D: Yelgun, Moball, Round • Additional investigations into long Mountain, Kingscliff, Chinderah. term need and demand required. • Segment E: Yelgun, Mooball, Duranbah, Cudgen, Chinderah. • Segment F: Yelgun, Mooball, Cudgera Creek, Chinderah. • Segment G: Byron Bay, Brunswick Heads, Yelgun. • Segment H: Byron Bay, Mullumbimby, Yelgun. • Segment J: Murwillumbah, Tumbulgum, Chinderah. Reinstatement costs Construction costs were estimated Estimated total costs (design, The upper limit total between four nodes: construction, management, risk costs of reinstating the • Node 1, Casino – Lismore. contingency) for reinstating the rail line to the required standard is: rail line to XPT • Node 2, Lismore – Byron Bay. standards were • Casino to Lismore = $185 million. • Node 3, Byron Bay – Mullumbimby. estimated • Casino to Bryon Bay = $387 million. • Node 4, Mullumbimby – Murwillumbah. • Casino to Mullumbimby = $582 million. • Casino to Murwillumbah = $953 million. Freight The opportunities for rail based north- • Freight haulage is not considered a Explored qualitatively. south and east-west freight haulage were commercially feasible option. This explored qualitatively. This included future accords with Legislative Council opportunities such as a potential Casino findings (NSW Legislative Council, Freight Hub. 2004). Alternative uses – Several disused rail lines around the • Sections of the existing line could be Rail trail world have been re-opened as cycling, used for walking and cycling, hiking or horse riding tracks. This utilising existing assets and

opportunity was explored at a preliminary contributing to the maintenance of level, with reference to some case the line. There is local stakeholder studies. interest in undertaking a feasibility The rail line could be suitable from several study for using sections of the line important perspectives: as a rail trail, with Byron Bay being the focal point • Existing ‘green/active’ tourism base with which to build from.

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Issue Long list of options Outcome

• Attractive surroundings; eg highly vegetated, lush farmland, boutique tourism based industries, etc. • Existing infrastructure, subject to appropriate modifications and upgrades (particularly for safety) can support other uses.

1.5 Reviewing the reasons for suspending rail services The future of the rail line and the role it might play in the transport network is important to some people in the Northern Rivers. A number of reports have been prepared regarding the future use of the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line since the NSW Government suspended rail services in 2004. These past studies have been unable to demonstrate the viability of reinstating CountryLink XPT services, or how this action would improve accessibility and mobility for residents in the study area. It has also been recognised that a rail commuter service (either light or heavy rail) would not be viable without a significant level of ongoing government subsidy. Further, to extend the rail network north to Queensland would require the cooperation and a financial contribution from the Queensland Government. It is important to note that the reasons cited for closure were questioned by many in 2004 (NSW Legislative Council, 2004). Because of this, and because circumstances may have changed generally since services were suspended in 2004, the original reasons for closing the rail line have been reviewed, with those findings summarised Table 2.

Table 2 The reasons for closure in 2004 relative to the 2013 assessment

Reasons for closure in 2004 Applicable Justification in 2013?

High cost of ongoing Yes • Reinstating the rail line to a minimum operating maintenance standard will cost in excess of $900 million. Costs were around $2.9 • Ongoing costs for maintenance could be expected to million per annum prior to reduce from 2004 levels following such an upgrade, 2004 and forecast to increase but would nevertheless still be around $2 million to on average $9.4 million per annually (PwC, 2004, p. 53). annum over the subsequent 20 years if the line remained operational (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 44). No freight demand Yes • Freight demand is being met by the Pacific Highway Freight traffic ceased in 2002 coupled with ARTC’s North – South Rail Corridor as a result of independent further inland. commercial decisions. • The Long Term Transport Master Plan and the Draft NSW Freight and Ports Strategy recognise the significant role road plays in meeting freight demand, with upgrades to the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and Sydney. Investment in rail infrastructure for freight is focused on other regions, particularly closer to Sydney. The National Land Freight Strategy broadly supports this approach.

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Reasons for closure in 2004 Applicable Justification in 2013?

Low patronage Yes • Services offered prior to closure were not attractive A decline of 36 per cent was to local residents, and are likely to have contributed experienced in the six years to the poor patronage figures. prior to 2004. • The rail line does not align with the region’s growth corridor however, which would limit opportunities for future patronage growth. • A significantly different service (eg railcar shuttle) will not increase patronage demand to the levels that could justify the investment required. This is because the rail line does not connect key residential areas with regional centres and services. • With the exception of Tweed Heads, the existing and future population and economic base is too low to support a high capacity transport system Relatively high taxpayer Yes • Some key factors that make cost recovery difficult – subsidy required low percentage of full fare paying passengers, limited A subsidy of $5.3 million was ability to cross subsidise from other sources remain required annually (including valid today. maintenance) by 2004 to keep • The dependent population will be the main users of the line operational (RailCorp, public transport, and most passengers will have 2004). concession fares (as is the present case). Therefore cost recovery is unlikely to improve even with increased patronage

1.6 Public transport’s role in tourism The role of tourists in the regional economy, and their potential to contribute to an economically sustainable public transport outcome, is an important issue for many in the Northern Rivers community. For this reason the Transport Study team considered tourism opportunities, which resulted in the following key findings: • Most visitors come by car, which is a significant contributor to congestion in Byron Bay. • Most international tourists come from the Gold Coast Airport. Ballina Byron Airport plays an important role as a domestic tourism gateway. • Lismore Airport has a relatively smaller role as a tourist gateway. • The continued growth of the Gold Coast Airport is likely to contribute to the need for better cross border transport services. It is unlikely that public transport can compete with private operators that provide a user pays, needs based service. However, visitors could play a role in supporting regular town shuttle services in Byron, Tweed Coast and Ballina.

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1.7 Key findings The key findings of this study are: Current need • The current accessibility and mobility needs of the study corridor and of the Northern Rivers region, in the short to medium term, are not primarily driven by economic growth but by a large and increasing dependent population needing regular access to services. • Private vehicle travel will continue to be the dominant transport mode, with upgrading of the Pacific Highway providing travel times between major centres that public transport is unable to match both now and into the future. • The areas with the highest need for improved public transport are Tweed Heads/Tweed Coast with connections to South East Queensland, and the Lismore- Ballina – Byron Bay corridor. These are the current and future growth corridors and are not serviced by the existing rail corridor. • There are no existing or future opportunities for rail freight transport in the region that could contribute to the case for reinstating rail services. • Tourism, particularly at Byron Bay presents an opportunity to contribute towards improved local bus services. However, public transport is unlikely to compete with private vehicle and private bus operators, that service the needs of visitors on a mostly “user pays” basis. Using the rail line to service tourists, identified by some stakeholders as an opportunity, would require significant private sector investment with little likelihood of financial return. • Regular consultation with the Transport Study stakeholders indicates that, with the exception of local rail interest groups, there is little support for substantial investment in re-opening of the rail line at the expense of improved bus services or investment in social services. There is a strong local recognition that the public transport needs of the study area and Northern Rivers region could be best addressed by a quality bus network. • Existing road congestion problems in Byron Bay CBD, Bruxner Highway between Goonellabah and Lismore, as well as the Tweed Heads/ Coolangatta area will require road upgrades in the short to medium term to alleviate growing congestion (some of this work has already begun). Improving bus services in these areas will assist with management of congestion during peak periods. Future need • Low population densities along the existing rail corridor and modest population growth, does not create significant economic, social or environmental drivers to justify the large investment in high capacity public transport such as heavy rail. • Preliminary modelling undertaken by this study indicates the existing rail line will not contribute to an increase in public transport mode share, and that increasing bus services will be more effective and significantly cheaper. A high capacity rail corridor extending southwards from the Gold Coast Airport may be required beyond 2031 but would require concentrated growth within key transport corridors such as the Pacific Highway/M1 motorway, continued strong growth of the Gold Coast Airport and extension of the Gold Coast rail line by the Queensland Government from Varsity Lakes to the airport. • Any requirement for a mass transit corridor would be primarily driven by economic activity, increased trip generation and associated road congestion. Predicted future trip generation undertaken by the study indicates that the highest growth in trips will occur in the Tweed Heads – Tweed Heads South – Kingscliff – Pottsville corridor. While the growth is significant in relative

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terms, the very low existing base of public transport patronage means that predicted demand (less than 2 per cent of total trips in 2031) is insufficient to justify the significant investment. A mass transit corridor, should it be required, would extend southwards along the coast rather than connecting to the existing rail corridor at Murwillumbah. • Work undertaken by this study supports The Tweed Shire Council Public Transport Strategy that advocates improved bus services from Gold Coast Airport to Pottsville via coastal villages, and, due to uncertainty of need, no reliance on a heavy rail link from Coolangatta to Yelgun in the medium to longer term. • Modelling predicts that the increase in trips in the Lismore – Ballina – Byron Bay corridor is not of the magnitude to need recommencement of rail services in the longer term. Continual improvement in bus services, infrastructure and integration of private operators will provide more benefits to the customer and could support growth of existing facilities such as Southern Cross University and Wollongbar TAFE. • The study has undertaken an engineering feasibility of potential heavy rail corridors from Gold Coast Airport, connecting to the existing rail corridor at Byron Bay and Yelgun. A corridor option with a connection to Murwillumbah was also included for comparison purposes. All identified corridors are technically feasible and there are no social or environmental factors that could not be effectively managed. The construction costs for these corridors ranges from $15 million to $30 million per kilometre, apart from the Coolangatta-Tweed Heads- Chinderah options where significant bridge and tunnel structures increase estimated construction costs to $50 million to $60 million per kilometre. The condition of the rail line • Since rail services were suspended in 2004, the condition of the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail line has deteriorated. It is heavily overgrown, has a number of landslides, and the majority of timber bridges and wooden sleepers have little or no residual life. • There has been little maintenance to the line during this period, apart from keeping the line to a suitable safety standard, and some stations and vegetation management of the corridor in towns. Even with a reduced maintenance program, the annual budget for this work has averaged around $750,000 each year between 2007 to 2011 (Parliament of NSW, 2011). • Reinstatement of the rail line to an operating standard is estimated to have a capital cost in excess of $900 million. The significant level of investment required to reinstate the rail line is required for either XPT services or for other alternatives such as lighter, higher frequency shuttle services. • The estimated cost is significantly higher than previous studies, reflecting the more comprehensive condition assessment and significant degradation of the assets since 2004. It must also be noted that any reinstatement outcome would need to comply with current rail standards and standards of operation to allow safe operations at acceptable levels of service. • The rail line is in the best condition between Casino to Lismore. Between Byron Bay and Murwillumbah, the rail line is in particularly poor condition, with the rugged terrain presenting barriers to effective maintenance. Responding to the region’s needs; the future of the rail line Figure 3 shows the location of the existing rail corridor, relative to the identified future growth corridor for the Northern Rivers Region. The key findings of the study in the context of the rail line are as follows: • The rail corridor cannot serve transport needs of the corridor between Lismore and Ballina, Ballina and Byron Bay and the Tweed Coast/South Tweed region. Importantly, the rail line does not provide direct connections to education, medical and other social services in Lismore, Ballina and

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Tweed Heads. Rail services with connecting feeder buses would not be attractive to users because of excessive travel times compared with direct bus services or car travel. • Currently, only 40 per cent of the population of the Northern Rivers region would have reasonable access to the rail line. With continued growth along the coastal corridor, by 2031, it will serve less than 25 per cent of the population. • Any future heavy rail connection to South East Queensland, should it be required after 2031, should extend south from Gold Coast Airport along the Tweed Coast rather than inland to connect to the existing rail line at Murwillumbah. This is to better serve likely population centres and therefore patronage demand.

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Figure 3 The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line corridor compared to the primary growth corridor

Table 3 presents a summary of the Transport Study’s assessment of public transport options to meet short and medium to longer term needs of the region. Key outcomes are listed as follows: • The short term public transport needs of the study corridor are best addressed through improved bus services, in terms of frequency, improved route connectivity and integration with connecting services.

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This particularly applies to Tweed Heads/Gold Coast cross border services, where, at present, separate services and ticketing exists. By way of example, a passenger travelling from Pottsville to Robina has two choices of ticket purchase, even though the journey is identical and requires the passenger to disembark and catch a second bus at Coolangatta. They can buy either a single ticket costing $20, or a ticket to Coolangatta and then another ticket to Robina for a total of $8. • Recommencing rail services will do little to meet short term public transport needs of the region and, considering the costs of reinstatement (in excess of $900 million), cannot be justified. • Future growth in the region will occur in the Tweed region, extending southwards along the coast to Ballina. Lismore, Tweed and Ballina are the defined long term major regional centres. In the longer term, a rail corridor can only provide a significant public transport function if it connects these centres to South East Queensland via Gold Coast Airport. • Improved public transport could contribute to alleviating growing congestion in Tweed Heads, Byron Bay and the Bruxner Highway at Lismore, however improvements to road capacity will be required in the medium term.

Table 3 Determining which mode best meets regional transport needs

Transport need Heavy Railcar Bus Justification rail shuttle

Short term. Assumes existing rail line alignment.

1. Improve accessibility to social    Bus offers higher frequency and much services to cater to the region’s wider coverage. growing dependency ratio. 2. Improve linkages between the    Rail line does not link to Ballina or Tweed regional high growth centres Heads. of Tweed Heads, Ballina and Lismore. 3. Address localised congestion    Higher coverage and frequency offered by (eg Byron Bay), particularly bus will best address congestion caused resulting peak tourist periods. during peak tourist periods. Medium to longer term. Additions to the existing rail line considered.

4. Improve connections to South * * Bus compares well even if the line is East Queensland, recognising  extended to South East Queensland. the importance of that region to ^ ^ the Northern Rivers.   * * 5. Improve the relevance of   Buses would better support day trips within services for tourists.  and between these towns. ^ ^

 Has a positive influence on the realisation of this criteria |  Directly supports the realisation of this criteria |  Does not support the realisation of this criteria. ^ Current line does not connect to SEQ or the primary tourist destinations (e.g. Ballina, Byron Bay, Gold Coast) * If a new rail line is built to SEQ.

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1.8 Recommendations Based upon the findings of the Transport Study, a number of recommendations regarding the future of the rail line, improvements to existing bus services and further work to be advanced through the Regional Transport Plan are presented below. 1.8.1 Rail Rail services • That rail services remain suspended. Reinstating rail services will not meet existing and future public transport needs for the region and patronage demand does not warrant the significant investment (in excess of $900 million) needed for a safe operational rail corridor. Rail assets • That rail assets be maintained to a minimum standard only; ie to ‘make safe’. • That a safety assessment be conducted on three bridges over public roads that have been identified as a potential safety hazard, to determine definitively whether they should be removed, maintained or replaced. These bridges are over Bangalow Road, Binna Burra, over Terania Street, North Lismore and over Friday Hut Road, Binna Burra. Rail corridor • That further work be undertaken during development and implementation of the Regional Transport Plan to determine whether a rail corridor to Gold Coast via Tweed Heads should be identified for future land use and transport planning purposes. 1.8.2 Bus Existing services • That Transport for NSW further investigate improvements (increased frequencies) to the following existing routes: – Route 603 Tweed Heads – Pottsville. – Route 605 Tweed Heads – Murwillumbah. – Route 640 Ballina – Byron Bay – Mullumbimby. – Route 661 Ballina – Lismore. – Route 637 Sunrise Beach – Byron Bay – Suffolk Park. New or amended services • That Routes 661 and 662 be restructured to include regular connections to Lismore Hospital, Southern Cross University and Wollongbar TAFE. • That Route 637 be updated to be a regular town loop service structured to meet peak visitor periods. • That new express services be provided to service the following connection: Bryon Bay – Ballina – Lismore via Bruxner and Pacific Highways.

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Better integration • That the following routes be integrated as a minimum in terms of timetable and passenger information: – Services 661 (Lismore/Ballina), 675 (Lismore/Casino), 640 (Ballina/Byron/Mullumbimby). – Services 603 (Tweed Heads/Pottsville) and 605 (Tweed Heads/Murwillumbah) with Queensland TransLink services 765 (to Varsity Lakes Rail) and 760 (to Broadbeach and interchange with Light Rail). Service contracts • That recommended bus service improvements are included in the next review of the Northern Rivers bus service contracts, or be implemented on a 12-month trial basis. That recommendations regarding improvements to cross border bus integration are included in discussions with the Queensland Government. Preliminary operational expenditure cost estimates for these bus services improvements are outlined in Appendix K. The recommendations related to bus services are illustrated in Figure 4.

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Figure 4 Recommendations related to bus services

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2 INTRODUCTION

2.1 The purpose of this document The Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study (hereafter, Transport Study) investigates the current and future transport needs of people living and working in the Casino to Murwillumbah study corridor and the potential connections to the South East Queensland public transport network. It includes investigations of the feasibility, benefits and costs of reinstating passenger services on the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line. This study has been conducted in accordance with the Terms of Reference developed by Transport for NSW in March 2012 (refer to Section 2.5), following the community consultation process during the development of the NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan. This study will be used by the NSW Government to determine the future of the rail line and to inform the Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan. The overarching purpose of the Transport Study is to provide recommendations to the NSW Government on: • How the public transport needs of the study area should be met in the short and longer term and planned through the Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan. • The future of the existing Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line.

2.2 The study area The study area is illustrated in Figure 5. It has been defined by consideration of a number of factors, including: • The known area of influence of the existing rail line connecting Casino, Lismore, Bangalow, Byron Bay and Murwillumbah. • The location of existing regional centres of Lismore, Tweed Heads and Ballina as well as smaller centres of Casino, Byron Bay and Murwillumbah. • The significance of Byron Bay and Tweed Coast as tourist destinations. • The South East Queensland transport network, in particular, the Gold Coast Airport, existing bus services to Tweed and future Gold Coast heavy and light rail extensions to Coolangatta. • Known travel patterns within the Northern Rivers Region. • The existing Sydney to Brisbane rail line station at Casino.

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Figure 5 Casino to Murwillumbah study area

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2.3 The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line was opened in 1894. The line is single track, standard gauge and originally had 24 stations along its 130 kilometre length, including Lismore, Bangalow, Byron Bay and Mullumbimby. It runs through the four local government areas of Bryon, Lismore, Richmond Valley and Tweed. From 1990, the rail line was used to operate a daily return XPT service from Murwillumbah to Casino, continuing to Sydney. The last XPT service left Murwillumbah on 16 April 2004, following a decision by NSW Government to suspend rail services. A replacement bus service operated by CountryLink has been in operation since this time. More detail on the rail line, including its potential to meet current and future transport needs can be found in chapters 5 and 6.

2.4 Previous studies and investigations A number of reports have been prepared regarding the future use of the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line. The reports have considered restoring CountryLink XPT services to Sydney, the feasibility of reinstating freight services, introducing a local rail commuter service, extending the rail network to Queensland and introducing a light rail service. Table 4 provides a summary of these studies The studies have been unable to demonstrate the viability of reinstating CountryLink XPT services and how this would improve accessibility and mobility for residents in the study corridor. It has also been recognised that a rail commuter service (either light or heavy rail) would not be viable without a significant level of ongoing government subsidy. Further, to extend the rail network north to Queensland would require the cooperation and financial contribution from the Queensland Government. There has been significant local interest in reinstating rail passenger services on the line. Following an announcement by NSW Government, a team was established in November 2011 to investigate the feasibility (engineering and cost estimation) of reinstating the line and potential extensions to South East Queensland. Discussion followed with the local community about the need for a more comprehensive transport strategy for the study area that would establish the broader transport needs, providing the context for the assessment of the feasibility of recommencing rail services. This study responds to this change in focus and is reflected in the Terms of Reference. While the condition of the rail line is assessed, including the costs associated with re-opening, a needs based approach is undertaken in parallel to determine the best use of the rail line in the future.

Table 4 Summary of previous transport studies conducted on the rail line and the region

Document Key findings/recommendations

Options for the Casino- • Transport options study considered bus, rail and dual gauge rail. Murwillumbah-Robina Rail Corridor • No new alignments considered between Byron Bay and Coolangatta. (1992), Travers Morgan • No detailed consideration of need and benefits

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Document Key findings/recommendations

Review of Investment Options – • Focus of investigation was an economic appraisal of investment and Casino to Murwillumbah Line: Final operations options for bridge program and development of business Report (1994), Kearney – Sinclair strategy for Countylink. Knight. • Recommendations: – Appraisal for operating and investment strategies adopted a shorter than normal time horizon of 10 years. – Investment in rail line considered to be high risk. – Train services should be designed to address specific objectives rather than using services on an ad hoc basis. – A re-alignment of Sydney-Brisbane corridor to better serve freight and coastal growth areas highlighted should be investigated. – No preferred options identified. CSO Line Funding Agreement • Infrastructure option assessment only, no consideration of Discussion Paper, Casino – social/economic impacts. Murwillumbah (2003), Rail • Track generally in good condition, bridges in poor condition. Infrastructure Corporation • Substantial investment required to allow for long term operations. • Several options considered including: – Line retained under current funding arrangements – short term option that could raise operating, safety issues and requires deferral of maintenance/asset replacement. – Line retained with major investment – $188 million over 20 years. • The remaining options below generate savings in terms of cost and maintenance: – Line mothballed beyond Byron Bay. – Line mothballed beyond Old Casino. – Line mothballed beyond Casino. • No preferred option identified. Closure of the Casino to • Supports introduction of a lower cost commuter style service for intra Murwillumbah rail service (2004), regional travel. NSW Legislative Council • Recommends: – Preparation of a preservation plan for the rail line, – Guidelines to improve inter agency consultation, – Greater period of notification of rail line closure to allow for community consultation – Introduction of regular commuter rail service – Acceptance of federal funding towards new rail service • Joint Queensland/NSW State Government study examining extension of rail line to Coolangatta.

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Document Key findings/recommendations

Feasibility Study for passenger • Growth in population and tourism has increased demand for travel. and/or commuter on the • Preference for a commuter focused rail system, tailored to meet Murwillumbah to Casino branch line intra-regional travel needs. (2004), PriceWaterhouseCoopers • No patronage or needs assessment undertaken • This is a high cost branch line with significant maintenance and upgrade costs. • A rail transport solution would require ongoing subsidies of between $4 – $6 million annually. • Recommended that government retain ownership and that line is not dismantled.

2.5 Terms of Reference The Transport Study Terms of Reference document was released in May 2012. It outlines the objectives and corresponding scope of the Transport Study, and is included in full as Appendix A. The Terms of Reference cover a wide range of issues affecting the region, including the current needs of the local population, the economics of the region including the role of markets (eg retail, industry, services), linkages to South East Queensland and the condition of the rail line and what that means for its potential as a public transport corridor. They were developed after feedback from the Northern Rivers community (refer to Section 3.2.2). The Terms of Reference objectives are listed in Table 5, along with where in the Transport Study that objective is addressed.

Table 5 Objectives from the Terms of Reference

Objective Section of the Transport Study

Assess the transport needs for the corridor and consider the role, function and Chapter 6 capacity of existing transport network and linkages to meet existing and future needs.

Evaluate the condition of the existing Casino to Murwillumbah rail infrastructure in Chapter 7 order to assess its suitability to accommodate heavy rail or alternative rail options Assess the role, function and markets served by the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line Chapter 7 and identify alternative transport options for comparison. Assess need and benefits of future network enhancements including connections to Chapter 7 the South East Queensland public transport network.

Outline options to address short, medium and long term community and economic Chapter 7 transport needs in the corridor. Consult with stakeholders and the community within the Northern Rivers Region to Chapter 3 ensure expectations are consistent with the study objectives. Assess the benefits, impacts and costs of feasible options. Chapter 7

Deliver reports and other outputs for Government consideration that will also inform Recommendations: development of the Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan and the NSW Long Term Chapter 9 Transport Master Plan.

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2.6 Methodology The Transport Study builds on previous studies undertaken on the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line and also considers the region’s infrastructure and transport services. The existing state of the transport network is explored in Chapter 5. The current and future transport needs of the region are addressed in detail in Chapter 6, while the condition of the rail line and its potential for reuse are addressed in Chapter 7. Corresponding key findings are summarised in each of these chapters, which inform the short and long term recommendations. The key findings are wide ranging, covering a variety of transport issues. To focus the recommendations, the Transport Study team have used the key findings to address two core questions: 1. Needs based approach. What public transport response best suits the current and future needs of the study area, irrespective of the condition of the existing rail line? 2. Condition based approach. What is the potential of the existing rail line irrespective of current and future needs? What rail based modes could be accommodated, what connections could realistically be established to South East Queensland, could the corridor be used in other ways (such as a rail trail), etc? The result of this assessment is provided in conclusions chapter, Chapter 8.

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3 CUSTOMERS AND STAKEHOLDERS

3.1 The importance of customers Delivering a transport system that meets the needs and preferences of customers is a cornerstone objective of the NSW Government. The Long Term Transport Master Plan highlights the need for the transport system to be planned in an integrated way, moving away from modal ‘silos’ towards a system that focuses on where people want to go independent of mode. The Transport Study does this by exploring the needs of the region independent of the existing condition of the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line. The line’s corridor and rail assets remain, and could feasibly be reused (with significant repairs and at significant cost) to provide a transport service with defined social, economic and environmental benefits to the region. The fundamental issue confronting this and previous studies is whether such a service is actually needed; that is, whether operating rail services within the existing corridor is an appropriate response to the study area’s current and future needs. The Transport Study has defined a customer profile for the study corridor that is typical of the Northern Rivers Region and also of other regional areas in NSW. This profile is quite distinct from Sydney, and is characterised by the following: • Journey to work trips are not the dominant need for public transport. Customers in urban areas use public transport to commute mostly because it avoids parking problems or because it’s cheaper and faster (Bureau of Transport Statistics, 2011, p. 21). By contrast, regionally based customers face less of a challenge finding a parking spot close their work, almost always have access to a car, are more likely to work within close proximity to their homes and are more likely to face relatively higher public transport costs. For the Northern Rivers this has contributed to around 89 per cent of journey to work trips being made by car, with less than one per cent made by public transport. Comparable figures for Sydney are 70 per cent and 23 per cent respectively. Further, on average 72 per cent of journey to work trips originate and end within the same town, up to 82 per cent for those working in Byron Bay. • Public transport is more likely to be needed because of a lack of access to a car. As noted most people in Sydney use public transport to avoid parking problems or because it’s cheaper (Bureau of Transport Statistics, 2011, p. 21). This aligns with the high public transport mode share for commuters, and correspondingly widespread of age groups who use public transport (Bureau of Transport Statistics, 2011, p. 28). By contrast, a primary reason customers need public transport in the Northern Rivers is because they don’t have access to a car. These customers are mostly the dependent population; aged 65 and over, or under 18. In the Northern Rivers, dependents represent 39 per cent of the total population, compared with a state average of 32 per cent. Table 6 lists the types of customers relevant to the study area and describes their key characteristics and needs. A successful public transport service will meet the needs of many different types of customers, at different times of the day and week. This understanding of customer characteristics and needs is therefore central to defining an improved transport service in the study area. In the case of this study area, the Transport Study determines that the need for improved public transport is not primarily centred around economic growth (demand for trips associated with work and other economic activity) but more so, social disadvantage and increasing unemployment caused by lack of opportunity.

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Table 6 Public transport customer types in the study area

Customer type Key characteristics and needs

65 and over • Currently the highest proportion of public transport (bus) users – about 80 per cent of mode share. The second largest percentage of users is those aged 55 to 64 at 9 per cent. • Greatest need for public transport because they are less likely to have a car licence, particularly if 75 and over. • Require services throughout the day (though usually not at night) for access to health and other social services, and retail. Work • Currently a very low proportion of public transport users – less than 1 per cent of commuters work trips by public transport. • Require services within close proximity to home (ie within the same town). • Growing requirement for services between the Tweed Shire and South East Queensland. • Typically have a focus on journey time and reliability. Students and • Tertiary students are currently a very low proportion of public transport users. young people Primary and secondary school students are also very low users of public transport (school buses excluded). • Primary and secondary students require trips within close proximity to homes (ie within the same town), for the 8 – 9 am and 3 – 4 pm peaks. • Tertiary students require town-to-town trips, particularly to Southern Cross University in Lismore and Coolangatta , and the TAFE campuses across the area, throughout the day. • Young people who do not have access to private vehicle transport also require public transport for employment, sport, recreation and cultural activities. Tourists • Currently a low proportion of public transport users – only about 6 per cent of tourists utilise public transport for their travel (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 51). • Most tourists rely on private vehicles (owned and hire cars) or private shuttle buses that run to and from airports. • Younger tourists (ie ‘backpackers’) are more likely to use public transport than other tourists. • Within towns: require services throughout the day to access tourist destinations, particularly to and from the beach or town centre. • Town-to-town: require access to airports at frequencies appropriate to integrate with airport services. Growing requirement for services to and from South East Queensland.

3.2 Stakeholder engagement 3.2.1 Engagement undertaken The Transport Study team has undertaken regular and consistent consultation with more than 100 major stakeholders including government agencies, councils, business and tourism groups, state regional bodies, service providers including education institutions and representative and interest groups, local members of parliament and community members. Types of consultation included: • Regional Forum. The Northern Rivers Regional Transport forum was held in Lismore on 21 March 2012 to inform the Long Term Transport Master Plan. The forum was attended by over 100

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community representatives and residents. Submissions received by the Master Plan project team were reviewed by the Transport Study team. • One-on-one meetings. Meetings and phone conferences have been held with NSW and Queensland government agencies, business and representative groups stakeholders since 18 April 2012, as well as email exchanges via a dedicated email address. • Household travel surveys. A pilot program was undertaken by the Long Term Transport Master Plan team in August 2012, with Ballina and Tweed being selected as part of the state wide program. The Transport Study funded additional surveys in the other major centres in the study area being Casino, Murwillumbah, Byron Bay and Lismore. 3.2.2 How stakeholders have informed the Transport Study The consultation process highlighted that there are diverse opinions on the highest priority public transport issue that should be addressed in the Northern Rivers region. Some believe they would rarely use an improved public transport system, while others believe they would use it often. Most stakeholders believed that the considerable costs of reinstating the rail line should have lower priority than improving bus services and the condition of roads, and social services such as hospitals and education facilities. There was no consistent view however regarding what was an appropriate level of public transport frequency, coverage or connectivity. Stakeholders who supported reinstating rail services believed that it could be justified on the opportunities afforded by tourism. There were some issues upon which stakeholders were aligned: • The region’s strong links with South East Queensland should be supported by integrated cross border transport. • There needed to be certainty regarding the future of the rail line. • Public transport was unlikely to provide a strong alternative to car travel in the short to medium term. There is a strong community desire for the NSW Government to understand the specific needs of the Northern Rivers. Most people understand that the demand for public transport is not as high as in densely populated areas such as Sydney, but that does not diminish the strong need for it by some sectors of the community: for instance, by young people and those 65 and over who are less likely to have access to a car but need regular access to education and health services as well as retail. The proximity to South East Queensland – a similar sized area but with over 10 times the population – also makes the region unique. Most participants believe the future of the region lies north and want a public transport response that is cognisant of that, rather than one that ‘looks south’ to Sydney. The major influences of stakeholder feedback on the Transport Study include: • Wider focus. The study’s original focus was on the feasibility (engineering and cost) of reopening the rail line and of extensions to South East Queensland. The community’s desire to broaden the focus to examine wider transport needs resulted in published Terms of Reference. ‘Feasibility’ included a needs-based test; that is, would a recommenced rail service best address the community’s public transport needs? The Terms of Reference are discussed in more detail in Section 2.5. • Changed methodology, in line with the broadened Terms of Reference. The Transport Study methodology relies on two approaches run in parallel: 1) a needs-based approach and 2) a condition-based approach. The methodology is described in more detail in Section 2.6. • Great focus on integration with South East Queensland. The Transport Study has referenced both Queensland and NSW transport planning frameworks. • Tourism based opportunities. The study has considered whether the existing tourist market provides opportunities for improved public transport and enhances the case for reinstatement of the rail line.

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4 RESPONDING TO THE NSW FRAMEWORK OF PLANNING AND INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK

4.1 NSW Planning Framework The centrepiece of the NSW Government’s Planning Framework is NSW 2021, the NSW Government’s 10 year plan for the state. NSW 2021 is based on five overarching strategies: 1. Rebuild the economy. Restore economic growth and establish NSW as the ‘first place in Australia to do business’. 2. Return quality services. Provide the best transport, health, education, policing and justice, and family services, with a focus on the customer. 3. Renovate infrastructure. Build the infrastructure that makes a difference to both our economy and people’s lives. 4. Strengthen our local environment and communities. Improve people’s lives by protecting natural environments and building a strong sense of community. 5. Restore accountability to government. Talk honestly with the community, return planning powers to the community and give people a say. Goal 9 of NSW 2021 centres on the need to improve customer satisfaction in transport services across the state. This customer-centric approach is underpins the needs-based Transport Study methodology, and also supports the Study’s needs-driven recommendations. The Planning Framework also includes the NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan, the Metropolitan Strategy, and the State Infrastructure Strategy. Regional Action Plans have also been developed for all regions in NSW (as described below).

4.2 The Northern Rivers Regional Action Plan Regional Action Plans focus on immediate actions the NSW Government will take to improve outcomes in each region, aligned with each of the five overarching strategies from NSW 2021 (refer to Section 4.1). They were developed following consultation with regional communities over several months in 2012, and will be updated every two years. The priority actions related to improving transport services are: • Complete the Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study (ie this document). • Develop a Regional Transport Plan for the Northern Rivers. This document is currently being prepared by Transport for NSW (refer to Section 4.4). • Deliver critical road upgrades on the Pacific Highway, including the completion by 2014 of a four lane divided road from Ballina to Queensland, continuing with the Tintenbar to Ewingsdale upgrade currently under construction, and planning for the upgrade between Woolgoolga and Ballina.

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• Improve the movement of freight, the details of which were outlined in the Draft NSW Freight and Ports Strategy released in 2012. • Implement a long term vision for regional airports and consider centralised regional airport for the Northern Rivers. The NSW Government has recently issued new air licenses in line with this action. • Upgrade regional infrastructure in partnership with Local Government. Projects approved in Round 1 include upgrades to the Ballina Byron Gateway Airport, pavement and road upgrades in Ballina, and improvements to drainage infrastructure in the Tweed Shire.

4.3 Long Term Transport Master Plan The Long Term Transport Master Plan is the NSW Government’s 20 year plan to return quality services to the NSW transport system. It is built around eight objectives the NSW Government has for the transport system, including improving the quality of services, supporting economic growth, reducing social disadvantage and supporting regional development. The Master Plan provides the basis upon which further detailed transport planning can be undertaken in the state, including for the Northern Rivers region. It identifies a number of challenges that are relevant to many regional areas, with the following being particularly relevant to this Transport Study: • Uneven population growth, with some regions growing quickly and others experiencing a decreasing population. Relative to other regions the Northern Rivers is experiencing medium levels of population growth – about 0.7 per cent compared to the state average of 1.1 per cent annually (Regional Development Australia, 2012). • An ageing population and increasing dependency ratio2. The proportion of people aged 65 and over in NSW will increase from 15 per cent in 2011 to 21 per cent in 2031 (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 15). This age group contributes to the dependency ratio, which for the Northern Rivers is 39 per cent compared to a state average of 32 per cent (Regional Development Australia, 2012). • Declining patronage on regional passenger trains of 13 per cent since 2001, from 2.2 million passengers to 1.9 million in 2010/11 (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 229). The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line experienced a decline of 36 per cent in passenger numbers between 1998 to 2002, from around 226,500 to 145,000 passengers annually (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 33). • Infrequent and unreliable services for both rail and bus services making the public transport network a less attractive alternative to cars. A number of actions are proposed in the Long Term Transport Master Plan to address these issues with those below particularly relevant to this Transport Study: • Preparing a Country Passenger Rail Services Strategy. The recommendations of this Study will inform this strategy. • Work with private bus operators to improve services, in terms of quality and frequency of service, network coverage and better integration with other transport modes. The short term recommendations of this study are particularly supportive of this recommendation.

2 A measure used to compare the size of the working age population to the size of the non-working age population; ie the percentage of people aged 0-14 and 65 years and over (that is, 'dependents') compared to the number of people aged 15-64 years.

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• Improve and strengthen community transport. While not included in the Terms of Reference, this study has considered the role of community transport in meeting current needs and its relationship to the public transport system. • Provide for cross-border travel and transit, that is improving physical connections but also service integration between NSW and Queensland. Connections between the Gold Coast and the Tweed Shire are expected to become particularly important in future years, with opportunities to connect to a future heavy rail link from Coolangatta Airport to Brisbane (expected after 2031).

4.4 Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan The Long Term Transport Master Plan sets principles and provides overarching direction for the Northern Rivers at a strategic level. While some specific regional initiatives have been identified, greater detail is required for implementation at the local level. The Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan will provide this by: • Translating principles and actions from the Master Plan into actions that are relevant locally, to be implemented locally. • Address identified transport demands and priorities at the regional and local levels, drawing on region-specific household travel surveys and feedback to do this. • Provide a mechanism to support early transport provision for new residential areas in regional NSW, particularly in our major regional cities. • Ensure the right transport links are in place to support regional economic development. The Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan will be informed by this Transport Study, and is currently under development by Transport for NSW.

4.5 Regional land use planning Land use planning at the strategic level is addressed through Regional Strategies, that are prepared by the Department of Planning and Infrastructure. The Far North Coast Regional Strategy was released in 2007, and is currently being updated according to a scheduled five-yearly review process – in parallel with this Transport Study and the Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan. The Regional Strategies establish a long term vision for each region and then identify long term actions to help achieve it. They aim to provide a guide to sustainable growth, with actions addressing the environmental and natural resource use, cultural heritage, settlement patterns, housing design, economic development and employment growth, transport, water and energy. A discussion paper on the Far North Coast Regional Strategy will be released for comment in early 2013. The regional strategy is expected to be finalised during 2013. More detail on expected land use and economic changes is presented in Section 6.2.3.

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5 THE EXISTING TRANSPORT NETWORK

5.1 Road network 5.1.1 Pacific Highway There is a shared commitment from the Australian Government and NSW Government to complete the Pacific Highway upgrade with a target completion date of 2016 identified. The Queensland border to Ewingsdale, and Tintenbar to Ballina sections, were upgraded to dual carriageway some time ago. Other upgrades include: • Tugun Bypass – $543 million (2008) • Ballina Bypass – $640 million (2012) • Banora Point Upgrade – $359 million (2012). The most recent upgrade to be announced is the section between Tintenbar to Ewingsdale. This is scheduled to be complete by mid 2014. A total of $2 billion has been spent to date on improvement to the Pacific Highway in the Northern Rivers region. This represents the most significant investment in transport in the region and will help to meet the region’s increasing demand for travel generated by population growth and movement of road freight. 5.1.2 Regional roads The regional road corridors that connect the main population centres in the study corridor are: • Bruxner Highway connecting Casino, Lismore and Ballina. An upgrade of the Bruxner Highway was completed in 2011 (the Alstonville Bypass). • Bangalow Road connecting Lismore to Byron Bay. • Tweed Valley Way connecting Murwillumbah to Tweed. The Long Term Transport Master Plan acknowledges however the impact of increasing population and employment growth on the performance of major regional roads, and commits to undertaking network planning for future road improvements in the medium to long term (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 212). Transport for NSW has road corridor strategies for both Bruxner Highway (Ballina to Tenterfield Corridor Strategy) and Bangalow Road. Key challenges relevant to this Transport Study that were identified include in those strategies include: • Emerging capacity restrictions that cause peak period pinch points and traffic delays, particularly around Lismore and between Lismore and Ballina. • Increasing traffic volumes during morning and afternoon peaks to and from central Lismore, and to a lessor extent, Ballina. • Increasing number of vulnerable road users, including elderly, pedestrians and cyclists.

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The corridor strategies identify a number of actions to address these challenges including: • Commence planning for the duplication of the highway between Lismore and Alstonville (by 2014). • Assess parts of the route for higher productivity vehicles (by 2014). The Bangalow Road Corridor Strategy is under development by Transport for NSW. 5.1.3 Local roads Some upgrades to select local roads are being considered by regional councils to address localised issues, including for instance improvements to Lismore’s Woodlark Street and a CBD bypass at Byron Bay. While intermittent, the congestion problems at Byron Bay are particularly significant and were explored by the Transport Study team. Around 580,000 day visitors arrive in Byron Bay each year, with more expected as a result of the Yelgun to Chinderah Pacific Highway upgrade. While healthy for local business, the activity has resulted in considerable traffic and pedestrian congestion, and limited parking availability. Travel times during peak periods can quadruple those during off-peak periods (Byron Bay Shire Council, 2011, p. 2). The aim of the bypass and associated works is to improve traffic circulation through key intersections, and to a lesser extent reduce traffic overall in the CBD (Byron Bay Shire Council, 2011, p. 2). A ‘mini bypass’ and ‘full bypass’ option has been considered as alternatives to achieve this. Previous Council studies, along with independent work undertaken for the West Byron residential subdivision (800+ lots) at Belongil fields (two kilometres west of the town centre), conclude that the mini-bypass is required in the short term while the full-bypass is also likely to be needed in the medium to longer term.

Council has called for a new report evaluating options, which is due in February 2013. What form the bypass takes and where it crosses the rail line will depend greatly on what Council decides after receiving this new report. 5.1.4 Road safety During consultation some stakeholders and members of the community emphasised the poor quality of roads in some places across the study area. The NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan recognises this as a problem in many regional areas, noting that poor quality roads contribute to longer and less comfortable trips, but most importantly compromise road safety. Road users in regional areas are disproportionally represented in fatal road crash statistics. A consistent pattern has existed in many years for NSW: while the annual number of deaths from road crashes has decreased dramatically since the 1970’s, the percentage of deaths from regional areas has increased. While only one third of people live in regional NSW, two thirds of all fatal crashes occur in regional areas. The fatality rate in regional NSW is more than four times higher than for metropolitan areas (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 231). The NSW Government is committed to improving road safety for the NSW community. In late 2011, the Centre for Road Safety commenced the development the Road Safety Strategy for NSW 2012-2021 (Draft for consultation). The strategy sets out what the current and emerging safety issues are for NSW road users. It is available at www.transport.nsw.gov.au/nsw-road-safety-strategy- 2012-2021. The NSW Government has also endorsed the range of three year actions listed in the National Road Safety Strategy 2011 – 2020. It will focus on improving and upgrading roads, reducing roadside hazards, promoting safer vehicles, providing more rest areas for private and heavy vehicles, matching

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speed limits to the road environment and undertaking education, legislation and enforcement to promote safer behaviour by road users. The current upgrade to the Pacific Highway at Ewingsdale will address the highest priority traffic safety area in the study corridor.

5.2 Bus network 5.2.1 Existing network Bus provides the bulk of public transport for the Northern Rivers. There are a number of bus operators across the region, including CountryLink whose coach services replaced the heavy rail XPT service discontinued in 2004. A number of issues were reported by stakeholders and members of the community regarding the bus services: • Services are infrequent and operate at limited times of the day. A number of the town-to-town commuter routes depart at times that suit school travel patterns (around 9:00 am or 3:00 pm), but do not suit travel times for non-school trips. The concentration of services is also not uniform, with proportionally more delivered around Tweed, and none at all between Pottsville to Mullumbimby for instance. • Timetables are not integrated. There is limited integration of town to town bus services and also trips across the Queensland border. There are multiple bus operators across the region that provide intersecting but not integrated town-to-town services, a situation that also limits the opportunity for cross-regional trips by public transport. • Customer information is not fully integrated. Transport for NSW’s Country Transport website provides bus timetable information to and from one town at a time, but there is no single information point for bus trips that require an interchange. There is also no single map that describes services across the Northern Rivers. • Limited incentives for operators. Bus operators are obliged to provide good school services under the current service contract (Transport for NSW, 2008). Minimum levels of service exist for services within towns, however this is mostly on a number-per-day basis rather than requiring an even spread of services across the day. Services that most efficiently address school based obligations together with these minimum requirements are subsequently established by operators, resulting in a concentration of services around school hours (9:00 am or 3:00 pm). Furthermore, there are no minimum service requirements for town-to-town services. • Affordability of fares. Fares for rural NSW are higher than for bus contracts in Sydney, particularly over longer distances. There is a daily excursion fare available for passengers over 60 years of age.

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Table 7 Minimum levels of service currently prescribed by Transport for NSW

Service type1 Minimum service frequency prescribed Experience of the Northern Rivers in the contract1

Town-to-Town • No prescribed service level. Operators • Services are generally infrequent and Between set service levels at their discretion. operate at limited times of the day. regional towns • Operators are obliged to provide school • There is no single integrated bus map for the services. region; each operator prepares their own. • The timetables of different town-to-town services that join at town centres are not integrated. Limited opportunities for cross- regional travel. • Those services that are provided are often centred around school hours (ie 9:00 am and 3:00 pm). • There is a particular gap in services along the coast between Pottsville and Mullumbimby. Country Town • Service frequencies dependent on town • Bus maps not integrated where more than Within regional population and distances from the town one operator provides bus services within a towns centre. town (eg Ballina). • Requirements can be met through a • Few services operate after 6:00 pm. neighbouring service agreement with another operator; ie where they already pass through an area to service another town. • 85 per cent of households to be within 400 metres (straight line) of a bus route. • Routes to be as direct as possible the network should be easy to understand. • Services after 6:00 pm are negotiable.

1. As defined in TfNSW’s Rural and Regional Bus Service Contract (Transport for NSW, 2008)

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Figure 6 Existing town-to-town bus services

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5.2.2 Cross border bus services Cross border public transport connections to and from the study area are primarily provided by the CountryLink and deregulated coach networks in the region. These services are generally marketed for tourists or interstate/inter-regional travel. There are no direct public bus services from Northern NSW to Gold Coast Airport. The South East Queensland public transport network is managed by TransLink Transit Authority on behalf of Queensland Government. Surfside Bus Lines is the nominated operator for the Gold Coast. While Surfside buses operate commuter buses both north and south of the border, these essentially operate as independent networks, with a transfer point provided just south of the border at Tweed Heads Shopping Mall. The limited integration of cross border bus services is demonstrated by Table 8, which compares arrival and departure times of the major bus services at Tweed Shopping Mall. This poor integration is the most likely cause of relatively low boarding’s at Tweed Mall, which represents the only stop in NSW for Queensland services. Integration could be significantly improved by increasing the frequency of 603 and 605 services to 30 minutes and amending timetables to better integrate with departure times of Queensland services.

Table 8 Cross border bus services (excludes CountryLink and other coach services)

Bus service Scheduled time Comments

Within NSW

603 Pottsville to Tweed Arrives hourly 52 minutes past the hour Reasonable integration with 700 service: 10 minutes interchange time Poor integration with 760 and 761 services: 30 to 35 minutes interchange time 605 Murwillumbah to Arrives hourly at 7 minutes past the Poor integration with 700, 760 and 761 Tweed hour services: 15 to 25 minutes interchange time

Connection to Queensland

700 Tweed to Southport Departs every 30 minutes, 2 minutes As above. and 32 minutes past the hour 760 Tweed to Departs every 30 minutes, 22 minutes As above. Broadbeach and 52 minutes past the hour 761 Tweed to Robina Departs every 30 minutes, 25 minutes As above. and 55 minutes past the hour

The services noted above provide some connectivity to the Queensland public transport system, with a heavy rail connection at Robina (the 761 service) and future light rail connection at Broadbeach (the 760 service). The route 700 will be truncated when light rail commences operations. TransLink’s commuter bus network involves 14 commuter bus routes connecting to a number of major centres on the Gold Coast, the most relevant for NSW being Burleigh Heads because all bus routes that connect with the NSW network connect with other TransLink services there. Cross border tickets have recently been better integrated: the Queensland integrated ticketing system (GoCard) can be used by NSW residents and zoning has been extended to Tweed Mall.

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5.2.3 CountryLink rail and coach network The CountryLink North Coast train network consists of the main rail line between Sydney and Brisbane, passing through Casino and Kyogle in the Northern Rivers region. Services each day are: • Sydney to Casino (Casino XPT) – one service per day terminating at Casino, 6.44 pm • Sydney to Brisbane (Brisbane XPT) – one service per day, arriving at Casino, 3.55 am • Casino to Sydney – one service per day departing Casino at 7:30 pm. • Brisbane to Sydney – one service per day departing Casino at 9:53 am. CountryLink Coach services connect with the train at Casino and Grafton. These services connect the main rail line through inland towns and along the coast (refer to Figure 7). Coach services from Casino were introduced upon the closure of the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line in 2004. The XPT service to the Northern Rivers from Sydney and Brisbane is limited in frequency and does not provide connections at convenient times. CountryLink Coach services feed off these rail services, consequently resulting in timetabling that is not an attractive option for most travellers wanting to travel within the region (some sample journeys are provided in Appendix B). The opportunity to improve CountryLink connections between towns within the region is constrained by the timetabling of trains in Sydney and Brisbane3. The improvement of bus services will therefore likely come from non CountryLink bus services, where demand could be met without the complexity of timetable adjustments on the broader CountryLink rail network.

3 The Queensland Government is investigating re-scheduling in the inbound XPT service outside the morning peak period, which could further change the relevance of services.

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Figure 7 CountryLink Rail and Coach network

5.2.4 Deregulated coach network Several long-distance coach services (trips over 40 kilometres) operate in the study area. These services are not contracted by Transport for NSW under the Passenger Transport Act 1990 and operators can design their routes and provide frequencies on a commercial basis, responding to existing market demand. This means that these services are not designed to provide a regular public transport service or to fulfil a community service obligation in terms of coverage, frequencies or hours of operation. The long- distance coach market fills a niche providing links between regional centres and towns, particularly where rail or air links are not available. The emergence of low-cost air carriers has provided an alternative to long-distance coach travel between capital cities and some regional centres (eg Ballina and Sydney). Existing routes tend therefore to link intermediate towns and regional centres (eg Grafton-Byron Bay). Fares for the services vary depending on the time of travel, but range between $20 and $80 one way. As well as timetabled services, several bus and coach transport and touring companies operate from Byron Bay, Ballina, Tweed Heads and Lismore, covering the study area and beyond. These companies

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offer services on a commercial charter and hire basis, including for minibus tours, airport transfers, pickups and shuttle bus services for a variety of corporate, social and recreational purposes.

Figure 8 Private deregulated coach network

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5.3 Community transport Community transport organisations meet the needs of transport disadvantaged groups in the community. These groups include isolated families, the frail aged, younger people with disabilities, and their carers. Transport for NSW funds several community transport programs including: • Home and Community Care (jointly funded State and Commonwealth initiative). • Community Transport Program. • Regional Transport Coordination Program. • Country Passenger Transport Infrastructure Grants Scheme. The Home and Community Care and Community Transport programs contributed approximately $1.3 million during 2011/12 to the Northern Rivers Community Transport Inc (NCRT), one of the major community transport organisations operating in the region. NCRT has undertaken surveys of community transport users to measure the performance of their service. The NCRT Client Satisfaction Survey 2012 was based on a cross-section of customers from the three local government areas it services (Lismore, Kyogle and Richmond Valley). The survey focused on client satisfaction with existing services, service gaps and other types of transport utilised by customers and/or barriers that might restrict the use of alternative transport options. A number of recommendations are provided in the report to improve the level of community transport service (Northern Rivers Community Transport, 2012, p. 2): • Continue to develop information systems to inform clients of available services. • Ensure that drivers are providing sufficient door-to-door services. • Better inform clients as to their options if they cannot afford to pay a contribution. • Expand services designed to target men. • Coraki emerged as an area with many service gaps. Conduct a further survey to ascertain the transport needs of eligible Coraki residents. • Expand bus services through ‘controlled growth’ eg by utilising larger buses. • Educate clients about appointment time requirements. • Monitor levels of unmet need and service unavailability. • Upgrade scheduling software to ensure maximisation of resources. • Inform local bus companies as to the barriers perceived by elderly and people with disabilities. • Utilise local doctors surgeries and related services for promotion of NRCT services. • Research NRCT’s ability to combine individual shopping with medical appointment trips. The NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan is in many ways aligned with these findings, highlighting the potential of enhancing coordination between community transport providers within LGA’s and across LGA boundaries (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 238). Dedicated coordinators at a regional level for community transport could help to identify areas where unmet demand exists and improve efficiency of current community transport services. The outcome of this for the Northern Rivers is under development, and will be considered during the development of the Regional Transport Plan (refer to Section 4.4).

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5.4 Taxis Taxi services are operated in the main urban centres in the Northern Rivers region. There are around 100 cabs that service the region, with most located in Lismore, Tweed Heads and Byron Bay. All services operate on a demand basis. Taxi fares for rural areas are recommended by IPART. A minimum charge or flag fall of $4 is applied to the cost of hiring a taxi with a rate per kilometre added for each journey. The rate per kilometre is $2.12 for the first 12 kilometres and $3.05 thereafter. Surcharges are applied for night-time travel after 10 pm and on Sundays and holidays. Taxis licenced in NSW are restricted from picking up customers located in Queensland, and face a $1,320 fine for doing so. Taxi ranks at Marine Parade, Griffith Street and Gold Coast Airport are an exception to this, provided the fare ends in NSW. However, since 1999 taxis licensed in Queensland are not restricted from carrying out cross-border jobs into or out of NSW providing their operators are also accredited in NSW. These arrangements are designed to support the regulations of each state, which control the number of available licences, accreditation for operators, customer service standards and ultimately the price customers pay for fares. Adverse consequences exist however, which limit the taxi network’s potential to be an effective transport option for cross border travel. For instance (Todd, 2012): • NSW customers visiting the Gold Coast for entertainment are left with few options to return home, particularly on nights when driving may not be an option. • Passengers sometimes face long queues at taxi ranks, but are unable to utilise NSW licenced taxis even if they are available. • Customers from either state can arrange a lift to any destination in the other state, but can only be picked up at particular taxi ranks within Queensland. • Taxi fare structures in NSW and Queensland are different.

5.5 Air travel The two major airports within the study area are the Ballina Byron Gateway Airport and the Lismore Airport. The Ballina Byron Gateway Airport provides local residents and visitors approximately 80 weekly passenger services from airlines such as Virgin, JetStar and Regional Express (Rex). Byron Bay can be reached within a 20 minutes drive from this airport. Lismore Airport provides 52 weekly flights between Sydney and Lismore with Regional Express (Rex), as well as maintenance, air freight and general aviation. The Gold Coast Airport is located only five kilometres north of Tweed Heads, and is a significant tourist gateway to the Northern Rivers Region. It is Australia’s fastest growing airport, the fifth busiest international airport in Australia and the sixth busiest airport overall. It will continue to be an important gateway for Northern Rivers tourism, with private bus and hire car being the most frequently used forms of transport connection. The South East Queensland Transport Plan SEQ 2031 shows future light rail and heavy rail connections to the Airport.

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5.6 Key findings The key findings for this chapter are outlined below. They inform the conclusions and recommendations outlined in chapters 8 and 9. • There are emerging traffic safety and capacity problems on some of the regional roads that connect the major centres (eg Bruxner Highway east of Lismore and Bangalow Road) and in Tweed Heads. Significant congestion is not widespread, with the exception of Byron Bay where limited road capacity results in frequent congestion in the town centre. • Roads with identified safety problems; Bruxner Highway between Ballina and Lismore and Bangalow Road are subject to separate corridor management studies by Transport for NSW. Public Transport, in particular rail services will not address identified safety issues, which require improvements to road infrastructure. The current upgrade of the Pacific Highway at Ewingsdale will address on the most significant areas of road safety within the study corridor. • Bus provides the bulk of public transport. Some problems with the current bus service include: – Services are infrequent and operate at limited times of the day; ie centred around school hours. – Timetables are not integrated, most acutely for cross-region trips and also trips across the South East Queensland border. – Customer information is not fully integrated. – Poor incentives for operators, with standards based on a service-per-day basis rather than a requirement for services to be spread more evenly across the day. – Fares are expensive compared to urban centres such as Sydney. • There are essentially no direct cross border public transport services. Of particular note is the lack of direct commuter bus services from Tweed Heads to Gold Coast Airport. This is further exacerbated by cross-border restrictions placed on taxis: customers from either state can arrange a lift to any destination in the other state, but can only be picked up at particular taxi ranks in Queensland. • CountryLink Coach services feed off rail services on the North Coast main line, resulting in timetabling that is not an attractive option for most people travelling within the region. The opportunity to improve bus services therefore lies with non-CountryLink bus services. • Non-contracted coach services are not designed to serve a regular public transport market, instead focusing on filling a niche providing links between regional centres and towns (particularly where rail or air links are not available). Tourists and those travelling for recreational purposes are most likely to use these services. • Coach travel will continue to face competition from budget air travel. Low cost carriers are offering increasingly more services to the Gold Coast Airport and Ballina Byron Gateway Airport. • While satisfaction with community transport services is positive, significant opportunities exist to improve it. Opportunities centre mostly around the integration of services that are currently provided in ‘siloed’ way, expanding capacity, improving information about services and partnering with other relevant services such as health services.

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6 CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSPORT NEEDS

6.1 Current travel in the region 6.1.1 Typical weekday trip Residents in the Northern Rivers make on average 2.8 trips per person on weekdays, which is consistent with other regions across NSW. There is some variation though with Lismore and Byron experiencing most trip activity (3.1/day), followed by Tweed Heads and Murwillumbah (2.9 trips/day). Ballina and Casino experience the least trips at 2.6 and 2.5 trips/day respectively. About 15 per cent of trips on a typical weekday are for trips to and from work, or for work related business. Most trips though are for social/recreation (32 per cent), shopping (26 per cent), or other purposes. This is consistent with industry trends in the region which indicate a strong social sector making up over half the region’s industry. Comparable figures for Sydney are 24 per cent (commuter/business trips), 24 per cent (social recreation), 16 per cent (shopping).

Figure 9 Purpose of a typical weekday trip (Bureau of Transport Statistics, 2011, p. 18)

6.1.2 Journey to work trips Within the region Around 77,100 journey to work trips are made each day and the majority of those (85 per cent) end within the region. The remaining trips are to locations outside the region either to NSW or Queensland. Most journey to work trips (72 per cent) originate and end within the same town or local authority area. Of the 15,000 town-to-town trips within the region (excluding cross border trips) each day: • 3,737 occur between Lismore and Ballina.

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• 869 occur between Bryon and Lismore. • 519 occur between Byron Bay and Tweed (Tweed Heads and the Tweed Coast). • 138 occur between Casino and Ballina.

Figure 10 Most journey to work trips are within the same town

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Commuting to South East Queensland South East Queensland is home to about two-thirds of Queensland’s population. There are more opportunities for certain types of employment in Brisbane and the Gold Coast than in the Northern Rivers. This particularly applies to construction, financial and insurance services, professional, scientific and technical services, administrative and support services and arts and recreation services (Department of Education, 2006) and (Regional Development Australia, 2011, p. 34). The scale, growth, and diversity of industry in South East Queensland make it important to residents of the Northern Rivers, a point reinforced by stakeholder feedback (refer to Section 3.2.1). This particularly applies to those living in the Tweed Shire. Its proximity makes it a viable location from which to commute: Brisbane at just over 100 kilometres (between 60 to 80 mins by car), Gold Coast at around 25 kilometres (between 20 to 30 mins by car). This is further encouraged by relative median house prices, which are materially lower in the Tweed Heads region than Gold Coast and Brisbane (Australian Property Monitors, 2012). Journey to work survey data from the 2006 Census supports this. Around 6,400 journey to work trips are made each day to South East Queensland from the Northern Rivers. Over 94 per cent of these originate from the Tweed Shire (refer to Figure 11). The upgrade of the Pacific Highway between Gold Coast and Ballina since 2006 will increase the number the number of commuters from the study area to South East Queensland.

Figure 11 Most journey to work trips to Queensland originate in the Tweed Shire

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6.1.3 Tourists and visitors The Northern Rivers is home to some of Australia’s longest unspoiled coastlines, forms part of the world’s largest expanse of sub-tropical rainforest and contains a number of unique and interesting towns such as Bryon Bay, Ballina and Nimbin. The region attracts about five per cent of NSW’s domestic travel market, and about eight per cent share of the state’s international tourism market (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 50). A significant proportion of visitors originate from Queensland for daytrips. Demand for tourism differs across the region. Byron Bay is by far the most popular destination for both international and domestic visitors. Ballina and the Tweed Heads region are popular destinations for Australian travellers, while Lismore is noticeably more popular for daytrips than overnight stays, reflecting that trips to Lismore are less likely to be for holidays and more likely for visiting friends or shopping.

Figure 12 Yearly average1 visitor numbers by Local Government Area (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 50)

Notes: 1. Average of four years 2008 to 2011.

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6.1.4 Mode preferences Private vehicles Around 89 per cent of journey to work trips are made by car in the Northern Rivers, with less than one per cent made by public transport. Comparable figures for Sydney are 70 per cent and 23 per cent respectively (refer to Figure 13). Because such a large proportion of journey to work trips originate and end within the same town (refer to Section 6.1.2), it is unlikely that a reinstatement of rail services would result in greater use of public transport for journey to work trips. There is little incentive for workers to use public transport when they work close to home, when parking is not a problem and when the cost of using a car is similar or cheaper.

Figure 13 Mode share for journey to work trips (Bureau of Transport Statistics, 2011)

Table 9 summarises average daily traffic volumes on regional roads within the study area based upon traffic counts undertaken by the Roads and Traffic Authority (now Roads and Maritime Services) between 2008 and 2010.

Table 9 Average daily traffic volumes on regional roads

Key centre Road Average daily Comment volume

Casino Bruxner Highway, west 8,080 Main east west traffic movement is through Casino. of Rifle Range Road. Lismore Bruxner Highway 24,629 The drop in traffic beyond Lismore to Casino Lismore, west of indicates Lismore is a major destination. Wilson’s River.

Bangalow Bangalow Rd, 6 kms 15,540 Significantly less traffic than Bruxner Highway, west of Pacific possibly due to poor road conditions. Highway Ballina Pacific Hwy, west of 33,779 Counts taken prior to Ballina bypass opening – Bagot Street. through-flow traffic will have reduced – 30,080 count north of bypass indicates around 3,700 local destination and coast road traffic. Byron Bay Ewingsdale Road, east 14,275 Count is east of Pacific Highway, therefore primarily of Pacific Highway. local traffic to town centre.

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Key centre Road Average daily Comment volume

Mullumbimby Mullumbimby Road, 8,856 Count is west of Pacific Highway, therefore west of Pacific primarily local traffic to town centre. Highway. Murwillumbah Tweed Valley Way, 21,484 Counts of 3,000 west of Murwillumbah indicating east of Tumbulgum. that it is a destination for traffic. Count location is around 12 km north of Murwillumbah. South Tweed Pacific Hwy, Tweed 45,388 Main entry/exit road to South East Queensland. Heads Bypass at Terranora Creek Bridge.

The figures confirm that the Pacific Highway is the dominant transport corridor, with significant traffic movement between Byron Bay and the Queensland border. The Bruxner Highway also has significant daily volumes between Ballina and Lismore, with regular congestion experienced between Goonellabah and Lismore. Of note also are the relatively high traffic volumes for the principal roads (Ewingsdale Road and Bangalow Road) into the Byron Bay town centre. A Bangalow Southern Bypass Study was conducted in 2009 that examined a bypass from Bangalow Road south of Bangalow to the Pacific Highway. While planning has not progressed any further at this stage, it did identify that traffic and articulated trucks currently using Bangalow Road between Lismore and Pacific Highway may divert to the Bruxner Highway with the completion of the Alstonville bypass (2011) and Tintenbar – Ewingsdale upgrade (2014). Bus services The typical public transport user in the Northern Rivers has different transport needs to those in cities and urban areas. Customers in urban areas use public transport to commute mostly because it avoids parking problems or because it’s cheaper and faster (Bureau of Transport Statistics, 2011, p. 21). By contrast, customers in regional areas face less of a challenge finding a parking spot close their work, are more likely to work within close proximity to their homes. They are furthermore more likely to face relatively higher public transport costs, which act as a disincentive.

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Figure 14 Bus is far more likely to be utilised for travel to and from work in urban centres such as Sydney (ITSRR, 2010, p. 16)

Another notable feature of public transport customers in the Northern Rivers is their age. 80 per cent of bus trips are taken by those 65 and over (refer to Figure 15). The comparable figure for Sydney for example is under 20 per cent (ITSRR, 2010, p. 14).

Figure 15 The majority of bus trips are by those 65 and over

There were around 1.28 million commuter passenger bus trips in the 2011 calendar year in the study area. This figure is for all Country Town (ie within towns) and Town to Town (ie between towns) contracted bus services, but excludes school trips. Table 10 is a summary of Town to Town services in 2011. The data indicate that services with higher daily frequencies attract more passengers per trip, as illustrated in Figure 16. A typical comparison of

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patronage dependency on frequency is: Route 640 (Ballina to Mullumbimby via Byron) and Route 641 (Ballina to Byron Bay via Bangalow). Route 640 (eight return weekday trips) attracts an average of 23 passengers per trip while Route 641 (two return weekday trips) averages around 8 passengers per trip. In the case of route 641, travel time (for passengers travelling from Ballina to Byron Bay) is also a factor.

Table 10 Bus patronage for Town to Town services during 2011 (calendar year)

Route Description Total Avg/ Trips/ Avg/ Freq Freq Freq passengers mth mth trip M-F Sat Sun

603 Tweed Heads – Pottsville 192,056 16,005 466 34 13 10 10 605 Tweed Heads – Murwillumbah 101,602 8,467 362 23 11 6 6 610 Mullumbimby – Byron Bay – 1,279 107 22 5 1 Lismore 616/618 Murwillumbah – Cabarita – 5,629 469 88 5 4 Pottsville Loop

630 Murwillumbah – Lismore 5,420 452 44 10 2 640 Ballina – Byron – Mullumbimby 71,184 5,932 257 23 8 6 3 641 Ballina – Bangalow – Byron Bay 4,391 366 44 8 2

661 Ballina – Lismore 64,377 5,365 198 27 9 662 Lennox Head – Lismore 929 77 22 4 670 Lismore – Casino 1,885 157 44 4 4

675 Casino – Kyogle 10,160 847 44 19

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Figure 16 Higher frequency services, such as Routes 603 and 605, attract more passengers per trip

6.1.5 Tourists Use of public transport is low for tourists, with the vast majority arriving by car – either hired or owned. The high car mode share and the high proportion of day trippers (who generate two trips each on a given day), add to the pressure for road space and parking at regional town centres. In Bryon Bay for instance, there is a high level of dissatisfaction from tourists regarding the cost of parking, lack of parking and signage about parking, traffic congestion within Byron Bay and the general state of the roads (Tourism Research Australia, 2011, p. 20). The Countrylink coach network between Casino, Surfers Paradise and Brisbane is mainly a non- commuter service used by leisure passengers and tourists. There were 80,300 passenger trips for the 2010/11 financial year on this service, which equates to an average of around 17 passengers per coach trip (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 56). The most popular departure points for CountryLink Coach services were Lismore, Byron Bay, Tweed Heads and Surfers Paradise.

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Figure 17 Most tourists arrive by car (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 51)

There has been an overall increase of air travel to the region, particularly following the increase of low cost carriers. Annual passenger movements at the Gold Coast Airport have increased by around nine per cent annually since 2005 (Gold Coast Airport, 2011, p. 48) and around 14 per cent for the Ballina Byron Gateway Airport (Rehbein AOS, 2008, p. 11). Growth is expected to continue for both airports, and runway and gate expansions have been planned accordingly. A contributor to the high use of cars are those tourists driving into the region from the Gold Coast Airport (which are counted as ‘arrival by private or company vehicle’ rather than by ‘arrival by air’). The growth of so named ‘fly-drive’ visitors – those who fly and then hire a car at the airport to travel around4 – is an overall trend being experienced by the region. Fly-drive visitors accounted for 26 per cent of leisure visitors entering the region through the Gold Coast Airport and intending to travel to NSW north coast. By comparison, the equivalent figure for the Ballina Byron Gateway Airport is 21 per cent (Tourism Research Australia, 2009, p. 1).

6.2 Future needs 6.2.1 A dispersed and growing population The Northern Rivers has an existing population of around 236,600 people, which is forecast to rise to around 367,300 by 2031 (Department of Premier and Cabinet, 2012, p. 5). Nearly 50 per cent of the Northern Rivers population live in the two regional centres of Lismore and Tweed Heads, separated by a distance of over 100 kilometres (Regional Development Australia, 2012). The greatest growth is forecast to occur in Tweed Heads, Ballina, and Byron Bay as highlighted in Figure 18. Of these, only Byron Bay is connected to the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line (illustrated in Figure 19).

4 It excludes those who fly, hire a car at the airport and then hand in the hire car on arrival at their destination.

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Figure 18 Population growth is focused on the Tweed, Ballina, Lismore and Bryon Bay

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Figure 19 The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line corridor compared to the primary growth corridor

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6.2.2 An increasing dependency ratio The Northern Rivers has an ageing population that is greater than the state average. This is important in this context because those over 65 require good access to social services (eg health, aged care), but are also often less likely to have a car licence and therefore access to a car (Arup, 2012). The region’s dependency ratio, a percentage of the non-working age population compared to the working age population, is 57 per cent compared to a NSW average of around 49 per cent (NSW Treasury, 2011, p. 2.9). The aged dependency ratio (excludes those 15 and under) is about 31 per cent compared to a state average of around 21 per cent. There are significantly more Tweed Shire residents aged over 65 years of age (22 per cent) compared to the NSW average (13 per cent). There are also proportionally fewer people aged between 20 and 39 years of age within the Tweed Shire local government area compared to elsewhere in the region, a trend that is forecast to continue (Regional Development Australia, 2011, p. 31).

Figure 20 The Tweed Shire has the highest proportion of those aged 65 and over, a trend that will continue

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6.2.3 Economic change and employment growth When significant, changes to the economic landscape can have material impact on a region’s transport system. The regular refurbishment and occasional augmentation of the transport system that local authorities typically plan for, may not cater to new peak loads (eg regional airports, connections to regional airports, etc). It is important to understand whether significant economic change such as this is forecast for the Northern Rivers. The Far North Coast Regional Strategy identifies (NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure, 2007, p. 35) the following economic drivers: • South East Queensland. The scale and forecast growth of the South East Queensland economy will subsequently drive growth in the Northern Rivers. • Tourism. The region has a diverse range of natural attractions, with Byron Bay providing a focal point for this ‘nature based’ tourism. About 20 per cent of ‘visitor nights’ spent in the region are by international tourists. Tourism employs approximately 7,200 people in the region, or 6.8 per cent of the region’s workforce and generates approximately $1.2 billion in revenue for the regional economy (Northern Rivers Tourism, 2009, p. 6). • Industry. The region’s western areas have the capacity to provide land to support industrial development, especially for those with an export focus. Casino and Kyogle are located on major transport routes with access to inter-state road and rail networks. Total employment for the region is around 70,000, and strongly focused on services that employ just under half of all workers: retail at 15 per cent, health and social assistance at 14 per cent, education at 10 per cent and accommodation and food services at 9 per cent. There are no significant economic changes forecast for the region that would result in a dramatic shift in transport demand and furthermore no significant rail based freight needs arising from forecast regional economic growth. The trend in employment in services sector will continue, with expansion also in hospitality, cultural/recreational services, finance and insurance, and construction. Agriculture will continue to be important, but its growth prospects are relatively weaker (Regional Development Australia, 2011, p. 39). Growth prospects exist in energy production also, depending on the potential of coal seam gas reserves in the region (Regional Development Australia, 2011, p. 45), however that type of mining places less demand on the transport system than other forms. The most significant economic driver for transport is likely to be the continuation of travel between the Tweed region and South East Queensland, which is covered in more detail in Section 6.2.4. 6.2.4 Changing land use Across the region The Far North Coast Regional Strategy (NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure, 2007) provides a basis for understanding the likely land use changes that could occur over the next 20 years, and that could subsequently need a transport response. It notes the need to cater for an extra 60,000 people during this period, while protecting the region’s important natural assets. This forecast has recently been increased to over 80,000 by 2031, in recognition of the faster than expected growth in the region (Department of Premier and Cabinet, 2012, p. 5). The key actions from the strategy are: • The identification of a Coastal Area: the length of the coast east of the Pacific Highway up to and including parts of Tweed Heads (illustrated in Figure 21). Urban development within this area was

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reduced by limiting how much additional housing could be built, from the projected 75 per cent to 60 per cent. • No urban development to occur outside of designated Town and Village Growth Boundaries, unless Sustainability Criteria could be met. • Allocate 35 per cent of future housing to three regional centres: Tweed Heads, Lismore and Ballina, and reinforce their role as employment and service centres. • Ensure the provision of adequate land for new business and industry that takes advantage of upgrades being undertaken on the Pacific Highway. The Far North Coast Regional Strategy will be updated in mid 2014. Cross border activity There is significant residential growth expected in the Tweed region surrounding the state border. Cobaki Lakes is a 600 hectare community, which is planned to provide 5,000 dwellings over the next 20 years. Bilambil Heights is smaller at 184 hectares, delivering 1,696 dwellings by 2020. Lastly ‘Area E’ will see 900 residential lots added to the area (Bitzios Consulting, 2011, p. 6). The Kings Forest development for 4,500 dwellings is expected to commence in 2014. Together these developments are expected to generate significant traffic volumes right on the NSW/Queensland border. This coupled with increasing commuting traffic between the Northern Rivers and the Gold Coast and Brisbane, means that increasing congestion is likely to occur at these cross border connections (Bitzios Consulting, 2011, p. xiii). The main cross border road connection in the study area is the Pacific Motorway – Tugun Bypass – Pacific Highway corridor, which carries around 54,000 vehicles per day. The Gold Coast Highway – Wharf Street – Minjungbal Drive corridor is also popular at 27,000 vehicles per day, with proportionally more of these being local traffic (Bitzios Consulting, 2011, p. ix). A Cross Border Traffic Master Plan was commissioned by the NSW and Queensland governments and the Tweed and Gold Coast local governments in 2011. A number of long term road upgrades are recommended in this report, focused mainly the two corridors noted above, but also extending along some distributor roads. The growth of commuter traffic to South East Queensland from the Northern Rivers is an important trend for the long term recommendations in this Transport Study (refer to Chapter 6). Currently though, only around 30 per cent of traffic on the Tugun Bypass and Gold Coast Highway corridors is generated from this type of north – south traffic (Bitzios Consulting, 2011, p. xiii). Local traffic is a more significant contributor to current and future traffic problems. This suggests that cross border traffic issues can at the moment be viewed separately from the wider transport problems facing the Northern Rivers. Significant growth in cross-border traffic congestion for instance, does not represent a trigger for proportional upgrades to public transport services originating from within the Northern Rivers; eg reopening and extending the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line. Furthermore, the significant changes expected at the border should not overshadow basic day-to-day public transport needs, such as improving frequency and coverage along the Lismore – Ballina – Byron Bay – Tweed Heads growth corridor.

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The Far North Coast Regional Strategy (2007 – 2031) The Far North Coast Regional Strategy Figure 21

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6.2.5 The outlook for tourism Between 2010 and 2012, the tourism sector was affected by increased unemployment, weakened income and lower levels of spending in both Europe and the United States, and by wet weather in Queensland and Northern NSW. Across Australia, average annual growth in tourism is forecast at 1.9 per cent in 2012 (Tourism Forecasting Committee, 2012, p. 5). International visitor arrivals are forecast to increase, with stronger growth expected from Asian markets, particularly China. Research by Tourism Research Australia (Tourism Forecasting Committee, 2012) has looked at the preferences of different international tourism market segments and found that some Asian markets (such as the Chinese market) are more likely to travel in tour groups and therefore use means such as bus and coach for transport and sightseeing. It should be noted also that the Commonwealth Games are scheduled to take place in the Gold Coast in 2018, and it is expected that a proportion of the influx of visitors attending the Games would also choose to visit the study area during their stay. Passenger traffic at Ballina Byron Gateway Airport is forecast to triple over the period 2006 – 2026, potentially reaching a level of more than one million passengers annually. This continues recent historical growth: passenger movements increased dramatically between 2003 to 2005, from around 20,000 passengers to 72,000 passengers, driven principally by the introduction of low cost carriers (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 59). Upgrades to Gold Coast Airport will enable an increase in the influx of visitors to the study area, as it is forecast to bring nearly 5.5 million tourists and visitors to the region per year. It currently has more than 5 million passenger movements per year. By 2031, it is forecast to have 16.3 million passenger movements (14 million domestic and 2.3 million international passengers).

Figure 22 Growth projections for the Ballina Byron Gateway Airport and Gold Coast Airport

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In line with increases in fly-drive visitors, the forecast increase in tourists overall is likely to result in more demand on privately operated coach services that meet the needs of organised tours, but not at a level significant enough to dramatically alter the car-dominated mode share highlighted in Section 6.1.4. A change in this trend may be possible if improvements were made to cross border bus services, connecting Northern Rivers tourist destinations with an expanded Gold Coast Airport, and likewise improved bus services that take advantage of increased air travel at Ballina Byron Gateway Airport. 6.2.6 Freight demand A doubling of freight volumes is expected across NSW over the next twenty years. Transportation of coal represents almost half of this increase, with miscellaneous metropolitan and manufacturing following as the next two largest generators (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 19). The road network plays the greatest role, carrying 63 per cent of freight in NSW next to rail’s 33 per cent. The reasons for this are varied, but the disincentive to use rail created by the priority given to passenger services over freight, features prominently among them (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 25). One of the state’s top ten freight tasks is the management of interregional freight flows from Queensland to Sydney (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 20). The Pacific Highway carries most of this demand, and to a lesser extent the New England Highway. Significant growth in freight demand is expected for the Pacific Highway in particular, increasing from around 15,000 kilotonnes per annum today to about 29,000 kilotonnes in 2031 (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 23). The most important east – west freight tasks are coal transportation from the Hunter Valley to Newcastle, and agricultural products from the north west and central west. While the east – west freight task across the Northern Rivers is not a top 10 priority for the state (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 20) the NSW Government recognises that improving connections (particularly to Port of Brisbane) is important to the growth prospects of local industry. Only one east – west B-double route exists between Newcastle and Queensland, which connects Grafton to Glen Innes (ie the Gwydir Highway). Other major routes such as Summerland Way and the Bruxner Highway require upgrading to support substantial freight loads. Demand is relatively low compared to the costs involved however, so undertaking this work will be assessed in that context (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 57). The North Coast rail line (of which the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line is a branch line) supports little of the freight demand across NSW, and relative to the Pacific Highway is not expected to experience significant growth in volumes (Transport for NSW, 2012, p. 25). This is a continuation of the trend experienced in 2004 when the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line was closed. While the line was originally opened to meet freight demand (refer to Section 7.1), this need progressively declined with the reduction of logging and farming industries. Rail freight is commercially viable where volumes are large, the end product is not time sensitive (like fresh produce is for instance), a long haulage distance is required, and the origin – destination flow is simple (ie limited modal interchange) (PwC, 2004, p. 13). This profile suited the historical Northern Rivers economy, but a shift towards a more service based economy coupled with technological and capacity improvements in road haulage, mean that demand for east – west rail haulage across the Northern Rivers is unlikely to recover. Demand is further restricted by the line’s limited load capacity; gradients are steep and bridge upgrades would be required to handle heavier loads (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 92). Without subsidy from government, private freight train operators have generally been unable to establish commercially viable services (PwC, 2004, p. 13).

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6.3 Key findings The key findings for this chapter are outlined below. They inform the conclusions and recommendations in chapters 8 and 9. • The population of the Northern Rivers is dispersed; a population of 236,600 people spread over a large area (about 20,000 km2, about the same as South East Queensland). The population is expected to increase to around 367,000 people by 2031. • Nearly 50 per cent of the region’s population live in the two regional centres of Lismore and Tweed, separated by a distance of over 100 kilometres. The greatest population growth is forecast to occur in Tweed Heads, Ballina, and Byron Bay. Of these only Byron Bay is served by the existing rail corridor. • The population of the Northern Rivers is proportionally older than the rest of NSW. The higher than average proportion of those aged 65 and over is forecast to increase, which is important because this demographic are less likely to have access to a car. Current usage of public transport confirms this: 80 per cent of bus trips in the Northern Rivers are taken by those 65 and over. • Total employment for the region is around 70,000, and strongly focused on services, which employs just under half of all workers. There are no significant economic changes forecast for the region that would result in a dramatic shift in transport demand. • The most significant economic driver is likely to be the increase of commuter travel between the Tweed region and South East Queensland. Around 6,400 journey to work trips are made each day in this direction, and over 94 per cent of these originate from the Tweed Shire. • Given the significant growth of South East Queensland relative to the Northern Rivers, cross border commuting is likely to grow. This isn’t in itself a trigger for upgrades to public transport services originating within the study area (eg recommencing rail services), because the majority of cross border traffic (around 70 per cent) is generated from Tweed Heads and Coolangatta. • Private vehicle travel accounts for around 90 per cent of all trips. Some 72 per cent of journey to work trips originate and end within the same town, and about 89 per cent of those are by car. Less than one per cent are made by public transport. • The Pacific Highway is the dominant transport corridor, with significant traffic movement between Byron Bay and the Queensland border. The Bruxner Highway also has significant daily volumes between Ballina and Lismore, with regular congestion experienced between Goonellabah and Lismore. Of note also are the relatively high traffic volumes for the principal roads (Ewingsdale Road and Bangalow Road) into Byron Bay town centre. • Bus services with higher daily frequencies attract more passengers per trip. There is therefore some evidence that higher frequency services would be well patronized if they were provided. • Public transport is rarely used by tourists, with the vast majority (between 74 to 82 per cent) arriving by car – either hired or owned. A significant proportion of tourists (23 per cent) originate from Queensland for daytrips. In total most tourists originate from within the Northern Rivers though (60 per cent). • Tourism, particularly at Byron Bay presents an opportunity to contribute towards improved local bus services. However, public transport is unlikely to compete with private vehicle and private bus operators, that effectively service the needs of visitors on a mostly “user pays” basis. Using the rail line for tourism, identified by some stakeholders as an opportunity, would require significant private sector investment.

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• The North Coast rail line (which the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line branches off) supports little of the freight demand across NSW, and relative to the Pacific Highway is not expected to experience significant growth in volumes. Significant growth in freight demand is expected for the Pacific Highway. • Demand for freight haulage on the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line was very low to non-existent before the line’s closure in 2004, and there is no demand even if the line were reopened.

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7 THE ROLE OF THE RAIL LINE

7.1 Background The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line was completed in 1905 as a branch to the inland main North Coast Line which connects Sydney to Brisbane. The line was initially constructed to transport cedar from the ‘Big Scrub’ area around Byron Bay. Later it became integral to the development of pastoral industries in the Northern Rivers region. With changes in the economy however, the use of the line progressively switched from freight transport to passenger transport (NSW Legislative Council, 2004). The line is single track, standard gauge, and originally connected 24 stations along its 130 kilometre length, including Lismore, Bangalow, Byron Bay and Mullumbimby. It runs through the four local government areas of Bryon, Lismore, Richmond Valley and Tweed (refer to Figure 5), and passes through at times difficult topography characterised by significant gradients and tight curves. The first passenger service on the line was the North Coast Mail Train, an overnight train servicing the northern rivers region running from Central Station in Sydney. During the 1970s, this train was replaced by two new services – the Gold Coast Motorail Express and the Pacific Coast Overnight Express. In turn, these services were replaced by the inter-regional CountryLink XPT service in February 1990. The XPT service was used for inter-regional travel, mainly to Sydney. There was relatively little use of the service for commuting within the region. In addition, demand for the XPT service was seasonal, typically peaking during the summer months and in school holidays (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 8). Prior to its closure in 2004, the daily northbound XPT service left Sydney at 7:15 am, passing through Casino at 6:34 pm and arriving at Murwillumbah at 9:00 pm. The southbound trip departed Murwillumbah at 9:50 pm, passing Casino at 10:28 pm and arriving in Sydney at 11:3 am the following morning (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 8). The last XPT service left Murwillumbah on 16 April 2004 following the formal announcement of this by the NSW Government two weeks earlier. Following the cessation of services, CountryLink introduced a number of new coach services in addition to the existing coach services to and from Brisbane, Robina, Tweed Heads and Surfers Paradise (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 9).

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Figure 23 Aerial photograph of disused rail corridor

7.2 The condition of the rail line As part of this Study, the study team undertook an assessment on the condition of the existing rail line (Arup: Stage 1, 2012). Before the track was closed in 2004 it was considered to be in a fair condition, with the exception of some timber bridges where considerable maintenance was required. The last eight years have seen little maintenance on the line, and as a consequence further deterioration has occurred.

Figure 24 Advanced corrosion near Byron Bay

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Figure 25 Landslip across the track near Byron Bay

All assets require some maintenance to enable recommencement of rail services, with most of the significant assets such as the track, sleepers, public level crossings, drainage systems and bridges requiring major maintenance. Safety is also an important consideration. To operate in accordance with current safety regulations will require the replacement of level crossings and several bridges. In addition, for future services to be reliable, speed restrictions in place at the time of closure would need to be addressed, and this will require additional improvement works.

Figure 26 Timber rail bridge near Woodlawn

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Table 11 summarises the assessment of the condition of the rail line. All assets that could be accessed were inspected with a detailed asset recording and photographic record undertaken (Arup, Stage 1).

Table 11 The condition of the existing Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line

Asset Condition

General • Since rail services were suspended in 2004 there has been little maintenance, apart from keeping the line to a suitable safety standard, and some stations and vegetation management of the corridor in towns. • Even with a reduced maintenance program, the annual budget for this work has averaged around $750,000 each year between 2007 to 2011 (Parliament of NSW, 2011). • Condition is not uniform. Some sections (eg Casino-Lismore) have had significant maintenance within the last 20 years, while others have had little. • Steel elements are in reasonable condition and have some residual life. These include some sleepers and bridges. Advanced corrosion exists in some locations however. • Timber elements are in poor condition, including sleepers and bridges. Bridges • 187 bridges in total (164 underbridges, 23 overbridges). • 75 of those were inspected (refer to Figure 27): – 87 per cent of the timber bridges need either major maintenance or full replacement. 13 per cent require minor maintenance. – 67 per cent of the combined steel/timber bridges require either major maintenance or full replacement. 33 per cent required minor maintenance. – Concrete and steel bridges are in relatively good condition, with none requiring major maintenance or replacement. Tunnels • All nine tunnels are in reasonable condition and are stable. • Blocked drainage in tunnels may be causing additional loading on the tunnel lining. Level Level crossings (40 in total): crossings • 19 are publicly accessibly. 14 of those are not signalled. • Signalled crossings require significant remedial works or complete renewal. • All crossings need some form of remedial work. Rail and • Vegetation has grown into ballast and formation. Removal of this vegetation will create voids Formation and re-ballasting will be required. • Vegetation and silting has reduced the effectiveness of existing culverts and longitudinal drainage. • All timber sleepers require replacement. This, together with extensive reballasting is likely to require total rail/sleeper/formation replacement. • The alignment is affected by three significant landslides (Figure 25 for example). • Medium to heavy density vegetation exists along the most of the alignment.

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Figure 27 Maintenance required on inspected bridges (overbridges plus underbridges)

Figure 28 Degraded sleepers south of Bryon Bay

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Figure 29 Publicly accessible level crossing near Casino

7.3 Technical analysis of options The Transport Study team considered a range of opportunities for future use by the rail line, and to not be constrained by the line’s existing condition, current need for rail services, nor patronage prior to the suspension of services in 2004. A range of options were subsequently considered along with the outcome from each assessment (refer to Table 12, with more detail provided in Sections 7.3.2 to 7.4.).

Table 12 Option considered in relation to the rail line/ corridor

Issue Long list of options Outcome

Mode • Bus Rapid Transit, utilising the rail • Bus Rapid Transit, Guided Bus Mode options that could corridor with road replacing the rail line. and Light Rail Transit eliminated utilise the existing rail • Guided bus, where modified buses can during preliminary assessment. corridor and/or assets. travel on both road and specially built track. • Bus options discarded because • Light Rail Transit, utilising the existing of costs associated with corridor and some of the infrastructure. converting corridor. • Railcar shuttle, diesel powered light • Light rail provides less transport vehicles operating independently of the benefits than heavy rail. main North Coast line. • Service and staging options • Heavy rail, heavy rail cars similar to XPT. tested on heavy rail (XPT) and railcar shuttle only. Service and staging • Base case: existing public transport Year 20115 Alternative service services (ie bus services). All options • Options 1A and 1B result in a frequencies and additional services to base case. reduction in public transport use. termination points. • Option 1A: Once-a-day XPT service, • Options 2A and 2B generate Passenger services only. Casino to Murwillumbah. more patronage than 1A and 1B, • Option 1B: Once-a-day XPT service, with 2A the greater. Casino to Lismore. • Option 3 generates the greatest • Option 2A: Nine-a-day rail shuttle service, mode shift from cars to public

5 Base year based on 2011 population data.

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Issue Long list of options Outcome

Casino to Murwillumbah. transport, followed at a distance • Option 2B: Nine-a-day rail shuttle service, by Option 2A. Overall though, the Casino to Byron. increase is marginal at 1.39 per cent. • Option 3: additional CountryLink bus

services. Year 2031 • The order of results match Year 2011 (ie Option 3 is best). • Increase in public transport trips is still marginal at 1.38 per cent. Against Long Term Transport Master Plan objectives • Option 3 is performs best, particularly around liveability, supporting economic growth and quality of service. Heavy rail route options Refer to Figure 30. Segments passing near • All segments are feasible from an to South East or through: engineering perspective. Queensland • Segment A: Coolangatta, Banora Point, • Segment J is the lowest cost Assessment made on Chinderah. option in absolute terms, followed engineering feasibility. • Segment B: Coolangatta, Tweed Heads, by C and A. Chinderah. • Segment C is the lower cost on a • Segment C Yelgun, Cudgen Creek, $25m/km basis, followed by J Kingscliff, Chinderah. and H. • Segment D: Yelgun, Moball, Round • Additional investigations into long Mountain, Kingscliff, Chinderah. term demand and need required. • Segment E: Yelgun, Mooball, Duranbah, Cudgen, Chinderah. • Segment F: Yelgun, Mooball, Cudgera Creek, Chinderah. • Segment G: Byron Bay, Brunswick Heads, Yelgun. • Segment H: Byron Bay, Mullumbimby, Yelgun. • Segment J: Murwillumbah, Tumbulgum, Chinderah.

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Issue Long list of options Outcome

Repair costs Construction costs were estimated between Estimated total costs (design, The construction costs of four nodes: construction, management, risk reinstating the rail line to • Node 1, Casino – Lismore. contingency) for reinstating the rail line to the required standard is: XPT standards were • Node 2, Lismore – Byron Bay. estimated • Casino to Lismore = $185 million. • Node 3, Byron Bay – Mullumbimby. • Casino to Bryon Bay = $387 • Node 4, Mullumbimby – Murwillumbah. million. • Casino to Mullumbimby = $582 million. • Casino to Murwillumbah = $953 million. Freight The opportunities for north – south and east • Freight haulage is not considered Explored qualitatively. – west freight haulage were explored a commercially feasible option. qualitatively, relative to Draft NSW Freight This accords with Legislative and Ports Strategy released in 2012. Council findings in 2004 (NSW Legislative Council, 2004). Alternative uses - Rail Several disused rail lines around the world • This could be a viable option for trail have been re-opened as cycling, hiking or the Casino to Murwillumbah rail Explored qualitatively. horse riding tracks. This opportunity was corridor. explored at a preliminary level, with reference • There is stakeholder interest in to some case studies. undertaking a feasibility study for The rail line could be suitable from several using sections of the line as a rail important perspectives: trail, with Byron Bay being the • Existing ‘green/active’ tourism base with focal point. which to build from. • Attractive surroundings; eg highly vegetated, lush farmland, quaint villages, etc. • Appropriate topography, manageable slopes, etc.

7.3.2 Mode options A range of rail based modes were qualitatively assessed, including heavy rail (ie XPT), railcar shuttle, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Guided Bus and Light Rail Transit (LRT). Appendix D summarises the results of an initial evaluation of bus and light rail options, all of which were not considered for detailed evaluation. A detailed analysis focussed on heavy rail and rail car shuttle. The potential for each of these modes was assessed; that is, the reinstatement of XPT was assessed based on what it could offer, rather than what offered prior to closure in 2004. The assumptions applied to each option are: • Heavy rail. The existing Casino to Murwillumbah rail corridor forms the basis for this assessment. This mode, using XPT vehicles or similar, is suitable for longer distances, relatively high speeds and limited stops. An expansion beyond this corridor – for instance to South East Queensland – could only be considered in the long term, most likely needing to align with other systems such as the Gold Coast rail line which is planned for extension to Gold Coast Airport 2031 or beyond.

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• Railcar shuttle, again with the existing Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line corridor forming the basis of the assessment. This presumes light diesel powered vehicles operating a shuttle service between key centres. The feasibility study commissioned by the Tweed Shire Council in 2004 (PwC, 2004) was used as a reference source for this option. A railcar shuttle operating at different frequencies was explored in some detail. This allowed an assessment of the relationship between frequency and patronage/induced demand. The benefits, constraints and cost considerations of each of these options are summarised in Table 13.

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Table 13 Benefits, constraints and cost considerations for heavy rail (XPT) and railcar shuttle options

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7.3.3 Service and staging options The following five service and staging options, that are additional to current bus services (i.e. the base case), were investigated by the Transport Study team: • Option 1A: reinstatement of XPT services, one service each way per day, terminating at Murwillumbah • Option 1B: reinstatement of XPT services, one service each way per day, terminating at Lismore. • Option 2A: operation of a rail shuttle, nine services each way per day, terminating at Murwillumbah. • Option 2B: operation of a rail shuttle, nine services each way per day, terminating at Byron Bay. • Option 3: additional CountryLink bus services, four services per day each way. The options were assessed using a high level demand model, which forecast patronage for years 2011 and 2031, as well as qualitatively against the objectives of the Long Term Transport Master Plan (refer to Section 4.3). Option 3 was found to be the best performing option for both of these assessments, although all options did not result in significant increases in public transport patronage. Demand modelling The Transport Study team developed a model to help understand potential travel demand and to inform future patronage growth at a pre-feasibility study level. Patronage was forecast was for years 2011 and 2031, with Option 3 shown as the best performing option in both cases. The outcomes of this work are summarised in Table 14, with the detail underpinning it provided in Appendix E.

Table 14 Summary of demand modelling results

Option Based on Results

Base case Overall regional • The three greatest areas of growth in trips are Tweed Heads, population growth as Bryon Bay and Ballina. well as differences in • There are less trips originating out of Casino, however the region growth between around Casino is forecast to experience an increase in trips that centres. The purpose offsets this decline. is to inform future • All other areas show marginal increases in trip activity (ie below 0.5 patronage growth at per cent per annum). a pre-feasibility study level. • Significantly, none of these highest growth areas occur on the existing rail line corridor. Option 1 Aims to understand • Option 3 is the best performing option, both for 2011 and 2031 Reinstatement the implications of results. More people are likely to use this improved service than of XPT extending the current either of the rail based options. This is due to the better services. XPT service that accessibility of bus services to a larger number of population terminates at Casino centres when compared to the rail options. One service along all or part of each way per • Furthermore, public transport that directly services the higher the line. One return day. growth areas of Ballina, Byron Bay and Tweed Heads will show a service per day greater response in public transport patronage than those servicing would operate. the low growth areas of Casino, Lismore and Murwillumbah (ie the

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Option Based on Results

Option 2 Involves running a rail corridor). The rail options would rely on bus connections at Byron Bay to service this demand, and this requirement to Operation of a rail shuttle along all interchange acts a disincentive against using public transport. rail shuttle. or part of the line at a frequency of nine • The highest increases in public transport trips are likely to be along Nine services services per day in the coast between Ballina and the Tweed Coast, servicing coastal each way per each direction. travel. day. • The railcar shuttle option performs better than the XPT option, but Option 3 Aims to understand is still significantly below Option 3. the implication of Additional • Significantly, both the XPT options and the Lismore-terminating investment in bus CountryLink bus railcar shuttle option result in a decrease in patronage; ie it is likely services as opposed services better to ‘do nothing’ than pursue those options (which are costly). to rail. Four services This is due to the removal of some CountryLink bus services that per day each the rail services would replace. way

The demand modeling that produced the results summarised in Table 14, suggest a daily demand of between 11,000 (for 2011) to 15,000 (for 2031) public transport trips per day across the whole region (refer to Appendix E for more detail). Comparison with the Long Term Transport Master Plan objectives The NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan (refer to Section 4.3) was developed around the following eight objectives: 1. Improve quality of service. 2. Improve liveability. 3. Support economic growth and productivity. 4. Support regional development. 5. Improve safety and security. 6. Reduce social disadvantage. 7. Improve sustainability. 8. Strengthen transport planning processes. The Transport Study team used these objectives to qualitatively assess the service and staging options. The third and fourth Master Plan objectives, ‘support economic growth and productivity’ and ‘support regional development’ are closely linked for the assessment of the Northern Rivers region, and were therefore combined. The final Master Plan objective, ‘strengthen transport planning processes’, was considered an objective of the overall planning process rather than having individual significance to each of the options, so was excluded. Option 3 proved to be the best performing option, particularly in terms of improved service quality, support for the economy growth and productivity, and reducing social disadvantage. A summary of this assessment is provided in Table 15, with more detail provided in 0.

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Table 15 Assessment of the service and staging options against the Transport Master Plan objectives

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7.3.4 Route options to South East Queensland As required by the Study Terms of Reference, the engineering feasibility of rail corridors from the existing rail line to Gold Coast Airport were investigated. Future extensions to the Gold Coast Airport and South East Queensland public transport were considered to be an important factor. Nine alignments were investigated within three broad corridors, as illustrated in Figure 30. The assessment was limited to engineering feasibility only (ie an assessment of whether rail lines within those corridors could feasibly be constructed), and guided by the design principles listed in Appendix G. It should be noted that the need and timing for a mass transit connection to South East Queensland has not been assessed by this study and further work is required as part of the Regional Transport Plan. Outcomes from existing plans relevant to this issue are as follows: • The South East Queensland 2031 Transport Strategy lists a requirement for extension of the existing Gold Coast rail line or light rail to Gold Coast Airport no earlier than 2031. • The Tweed Shire Transport Master Plan recommends that a bus rapid transit corridor be investigated in the medium term, with no reliance on a heavy rail corridor.

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Figure 30 Rail extension options assessed

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All the alignments illustrated above were found to be feasible from an engineering perspective. Appendix G summarises results of the assessment. An indicative construction cost for each option was also undertaken6. Figure 31 illustrates the results of this work; Segment J (Murwillumbah, Tumbulgum, Chinderah) is the cheapest in absolute terms, with Segment C (Yelgun, Cudgen Creek, Kingscliff, Chinderah) cheapest on a cost per kilometre basis.

Figure 31 Indicative construction costs of each route segment (Arup: Stage 4, 2012, p. 34)

6 Excludes costs associated with property resumption, stakeholder and approvals management, financing costs and ticketing systems or equipment.

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7.3.5 Reinstatement and maintenance of rail assets The cost of reinstating the rail line to a standard suitable for XPT services was forecast, split into four separate nodes (Arup: Stage 1, 2012): • Node 1, Casino – Lismore • Node 2, Lismore – Byron Bay • Node 3, Byron Bay – Mullumbimby • Node 4, Mullumbimby – Murwillumbah. Appendix I provides a summary breakdown of the main elements. This estimate is an upper limit cost profile of expected reinstatement costs.

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Figure 32 Estimated construction cost to reinstate the rail line to a level suitable for XPT services7

7.4 Other options 7.4.1 Freight As outlined in Section 6.2.6, there are no future opportunities for rail based freight in the Northern Rivers. The Transport Study team’s conclusions therefore support those of a Legislative Council Standing Committee formed in 2004 to examine the closure of the line. It found that in relative terms the line is more suitable for passenger transport (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 92). 7.4.2 Rail trail The Transport Study also considered other uses of the rail line. During consultation, the opportunity to use the corridor as a rail trail was raised by several stakeholder groups. There has been some success in Australia (principally Victoria) and overseas (notably New Zealand) reusing closed railway

7 The assumptions to this cost estimate are provided in Appendix I.

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lines as walking, riding or cycling trails. They have become especially popular with cyclists and for tourism activities as they generally have level gradients and are free from traffic. Over 40 rail lines have been closed (or had services suspended) in NSW since the mid 1960’s (NSW Legislative Council, 2004, p. 131), but currently the range of rail trails in New South Wales is limited to a few short trails in the Blue Mountains and Newcastle areas. A range of economic benefits can be derived from rail trails. Many of the studies undertaken on rail trails have identified benefits associated with the re-use of existing rail corridors. These include: • Job creation during and after construction. • Increased direct expenditure and indirect regional income. • Opportunities for new and expanded local businesses. • A higher profile for the regions tourism industry. Some examples from Australia and overseas are shown in Table 16. Two case studies are also provided in Appendix J.

Table 16 Examples of closed rail lines converted to a walking, cycling or riding trail

Name Location Year of Length Cost Economic contribution opening

Murray to the Victoria 1997 116 km $2M* $258 per day** Mountains Trail

Goulburn River Victoria 2012 134 km $15M*** Valley Trail East Gippsland Victoria 2006 100 km Approx. $176.50 per day ** Rail Trail $2.5M**** Otago Central Rail New Zealand 2000 150 km $135**** per day travelling Trail from Middlemarch $169 per day travelling from Clyde

Virginia Creeper USA 1984 55 km $86 per day ** Rail Trail

*High Country Rail Trail Green Paper 2005: Steaming Ahead ** Cycling in Regional Communities: A Longitudinal Study of the Murray to Mountains Rail Trail *** http://www.bicyclenetwork.com.au/general/change-the-world/11100/ **** Otago Central Rail Trail Long Term Plan (2011) **** http://www.australiancyclist.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=2167

The Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line has many attributes that can make a rail trail successful (Mike Haliburton and Associates, 2008, p. 9): • Access to population centres. There are several population centres along the route including Casino, Lismore and Byron Bay, with the latter recognised as a global tourism destination. Each of these towns has a population over 20,000 people with expectations for growth. A significant and growing population also exists to the north in Queensland, the origin of many of the region’s visitors.

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• Heritage infrastructure. Popular rail trails have common features such as heritage buildings and stations, platforms, tunnels and bridges, signals and signal boxes. There are numerous historical and heritage items along the along the Casino to Murwillumbah route that are of interest or could become tourism attractions for visitors to the area. • Uniqueness of experience. The quality of the landscape has a significant role to play in the overall experience of the rail trail. The Central Otago Central Rail Trail highlights its three principal values of the rail trail experience as challenge, peace/solitude and landscape/scenery (Otago Central Rail Trail Trust, 2005). The Byron Bay hinterland offers spectacular scenery with the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line passing through a World Heritage region, known as Gondwana Rainforests of Australia. • A variety of trail lengths. Popular rail trails offer opportunities for short, medium and long rides and walks. The Casino to Murwillambah line offers multiple routes varying in distance and difficulty. Examples that have already been identified include; ‘Casino to Byron Bay – The Long Trek’, ‘Murwillumbah to Byron Bay – The World Heritage Track’ and ‘Eltham to Bangalow – The Historic Villages Track’ (Rail2Trail, 2012). The costs, benefits and appropriateness of a rail trail for the Casino to Murwillumbah corridor could form part of a separate study.(refer to Section 4.4). Some key considerations for its viability would include: • Repair/replacement of assets to a standard required for public safety, in particular, tunnels, level crossings and bridges. • Conversion of the rail track to a running surface suitable for walking, cycling, and possibly, horse riding. • Ongoing management and maintenance. • Support from local residents and adjacent landowners.

Figure 33 Newcastle Rail Tunnel

Source http://www.rail2trail.org.au/pages/benefits.php

7.5 Reviewing the reasons for suspending rail services The future of the rail line and the role it might play in the Northern Rivers is important to some people in the Northern Rivers. A number of reports have been prepared regarding the future use of the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line since NSW Government suspended CountryLink services in 2004. The reports have considered restoring CountryLink XPT services to Sydney, the feasibility of

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reinstating freight services, introducing a local rail commuter service, extending the rail network to Queensland and introducing a light rail service. As is the case with this Transport Study, these past studies have been unable to demonstrate the viability of reinstating CountryLink XPT services, or how this action would improve accessibility and mobility for residents in the study corridor. It has also been recognised that a rail commuter service (either light or heavy rail) would not be viable without a significant level of ongoing government subsidy. Further, to extend the rail network north to Queensland would require the cooperation and financial contribution from the Queensland Government. It is important to note that the reasons cited for closure were questioned by many in 2004 (NSW Legislative Council, 2004). Because of this, and because circumstances have changed generally since services were suspended in 2004, the original reasons for closing the rail line have been re- visited, together with findings of this study, as summarised in Table 17.

Table 17 The reasons for closure in 2004 and the applicability in 2013

Reasons for closure in 2004 Applicable Justification in 2013?

High cost of ongoing Yes • Reinstating the rail line to a minimum operating maintenance standard will cost in excess of $900 million (refer to Costs were around $2.9 Section 7.3.5). million per annum prior to • Ongoing costs for maintenance could be expected 2004 were forecast to increase to reduce from 2004 levels following such an to on average $9.4 million per upgrade, but would nevertheless still be around $2 annum over the subsequent million annually (PwC, 2004, p. 53). 20 years (RailCorp, 2004)

No freight demand Yes • Freight demand is being met by the Pacific Highway Freight traffic ceased in 2002 coupled with ARTC’s North – South Corridor further as a result of independent inland. commercial decisions. • The NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan recognises the significant role road plays in meeting freight demand, with upgrades to the Pacific Highway underway or being planned. Investment in rail infrastructure for freight is focused on other regions, particularly closer to Sydney.

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Reasons for closure in 2004 Applicable Justification in 2013?

Low patronage Yes • Services offered prior to closure were not attractive, A decline of 36 per cent was and are likely to have contributed to the poor experienced in the six years patronage figures. prior to 2004. • The rail line does not, however, align with the region’s growth corridor (refer to Figure 19), which would limit future patronage growth. • A significantly different service (eg railcar shuttle) will increase patronage demand but not to the levels that could justify the investment required. This is because the rail line does not connect key residential areas with regional centres and services • With the exception of Tweed Heads, the existing and future population and economic base is too low to support a high capacity transport system Relatively high taxpayer Yes • Some key factors that make cost recovery difficult – subsidy required low percentage of full fare paying passengers, A subsidy of $5.3 million was limited ability to cross subsidise – remain valid required annually (including today. maintenance) by 2004 to keep • The dependent population will be the main users of the line operational (RailCorp, public transport. Therefore cost recovery is unlikely 2004). to improve even with increased patronage

7.6 Key findings The key findings for this chapter are outlined below. They inform the conclusions and recommendations in chapters 8 and 9. Rail line condition • The ‘do nothing’ option is not free. It currently costs the NSW Government around $750,000 per year to maintain the line. • Even if services remain suspended, many of the timber elements along the route will need to be regularly inspected and repaired in order to ‘make safe’ as the corridor is easily accessible. • Any scenario where rail services recommence would require significant refurbishment work to be undertaken. All timber bridges, sleepers, rail and ballast would likely need replacing or at minimum a significant overhaul, and other assets would require upgrading to meet current safety standards. • The estimated upper limit cost for reinstating the rail line to any operating standard is8: – Casino to Lismore = $185 million. – Casino to Bryon Bay = $387 million. – Casino to Mullumbimby = $582 million. – Casino to Murwillumbah = $953 million.

8 The assumptions underpinning this estimate are provided in Appendix H.

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• The gradient and alignment of the corridor could support rail shuttle services, though the higher frequencies would need improvements to the corridor; ie works to reduce speed restrictions and constructing additional passing loops. • Rail corridor and assets are limited in their ability to support a freight task. Gradients are steep and significant bridge upgrades would be required to handle heavier loads. The creation of a viable alternative to road based haulage is unlikely without significant and costly refurbishment. • The rail line has many of the core attributes that can make a rail trail successful including access to large population centres, heritage infrastructure, uniqueness of experience, a variety of trail lengths. Likely demand for reinstated rail services • Bus Rapid Transit, Guided Bus and Light Rail Transit are not viable mode options for the rail line. Heavy rail (XPT services) and railcar shuttle are more viable. • Improving bus services would result in higher use of public transport than reinstating the rail line. Of the three options tested – 1) reinstating and/or improving XPT services, 2) commencing railcar shuttle services and 3) improving CountryLink Coach services – Option 3 is the best performing option from a patronage perspective. • Significantly, both the XPT options and railcar shuttle option result in a decrease in patronage; ie it is likely better to ‘do nothing’ than pursue those options. This is due to the removal of some CountryLink bus services that the rail services would replace. • The reasons for suspending services in 2004 have been validated by this study: – High cost of ongoing maintenance. Reinstating the rail line to a minimum operating standard will cost in excess of $900 million. – No freight demand. Freight demand is being met by the Pacific Highway coupled with ARTC’s North – South Corridor further inland. – Low patronage. Services offered prior to closure were not attractive, however even significantly improved services are unlikely to attract significant patronage (as outlined above). A high taxpayer subsidy required to fund ongoing operations. Route options to South East Queensland • All nine alignments tested were found to be feasible from an engineering perspective. Some environmental and social constraints to each option were however identified, but more detailed work is needed to confirm their significance. • The highest growth in trips would occur in the Tweed Heads – Tweed Heads South – Kingscliff – Pottsville corridor. While the growth is significant in relative terms, the very low existing base of public transport patronage means that predicted demand (less than 2 per cent of total trips in 2031) is insufficient to justify the significant investment. • Segment J (Murwillumbah, Tumbulgum, Chinderah) is the cheapest in absolute terms, with Segment C (Yelgun, Cudgen Creek, Kingscliff, Chinderah) cheapest on a cost per kilometer basis.

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8 CONCLUSIONS

The Transport Study team used the findings of this study to address two core issues: 1) what are the transport needs of the Northern Rivers irrespective of the existence of the rail line, and 2) what is the potential of the rail line to meet future transport needs?

8.1 Needs based approach The key findings from Chapter 6 have been linked to five overarching transport needs, with three focusing on the short term, and two the medium to longer term. Table 18 summarises how each of the major transport modes address those needs. An improvement of bus services offers the most potential to address the transport needs of the study area. Compared to bus, rail based options do little to address transport disadvantage, link the region’s population centres or localised congestion. However, all options do not provide an effective alternative to private vehicles. The demand modelling undertaken by the Transport Study team supports this conclusion (refer to Section 7.3.3). Of the three options modelled – 1) reinstating and/or improving XPT services, 2) commencing railcar shuttle services and 3) improving CountryLink Coach services – Option 3 is the best performing option. Option 3 (increasing the frequency of CountryLink bus services) is the most effective option for increasing mode share. A reinstatement of XPT services (or the introduction of a railcar shuttle) is likely to lead to an overall reduction in public transport use because of the removal of some CountryLink bus services that the rail services would replace. The demand modeling is high level and is based on what transport and trip data is available. It provides an indication of likely passenger trips generated by each option, and increasing bus services (both within the corridor and more broadly in the Northern Rivers) is much more effective in meeting the region’s transport needs than re-instating rail services.

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Table 18 Determining which mode best meets regional transport needs

Transport need Heavy Railcar Bus Justification rail shuttle

Short term. Assumes existing rail line alignment.

1. Improve accessibility to social    Bus offers higher frequency and services to cater to the region’s aging much wider coverage. population; ie address transport disadvantage. 2. Improve linkages between the    Rail line does not link to Ballina or regional high growth centres of Tweed Heads. No link between Tweed Heads, Ballina and Lismore. Lismore and Ballina. 3. Address localised congestion (eg    Higher coverage and frequency Byron Bay), particularly resulting peak offered by bus will best address tourist periods. congestion caused during peak tourist periods.

Medium to longer term. Additions to the existing rail line considered.

4. Improve connections to South East Bus compares well even if the * * Queensland, recognising the  line is extended to South East importance of that region to the ^ ^ Queensland. Northern Rivers. 5. Improve the relevance of services * * Buses would better support day for tourists. trips within and between these ^ ^    towns.

Has a positive influence on the realisation of this criteria | Directly supports the realisation of this criteria | Does not support the realisation of this criteria ^ Current line does not connect to SEQ or the primary tourist destinations (eg Ballina, Byron Bay, Gold Coast) * If a new rail line is built to SEQ.

8.2 Condition based approach The Study has made the following conclusions regarding the condition of the existing rail line, and requirements for reinstatement: • A significant level of investment would be required to reinstate the rail line to a safe operating standard; in excess of $900 million. Given that the rail line does not connect the region’s major growth centres and social services, such an investment is not warranted. • The ‘do nothing’ option requires on-going investment by the NSW Government. Maintenance costs are around $750,000 per annum between 2007 and 2012 (Parliament of NSW, 2011), but have not been significant enough to stop the degradation of asset condition. The state of timber bridges and the inherent safety risks they pose requires ongoing inspections and maintenance to ensure the corridor is safe. • That recommended bus service improvements are included in the next review of Northern Rivers Bus Services contracts, or be implemented on a 12-month trial basis. • That recommendations regarding improvements to cross border integration are included in discussions with the Queensland Government.

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9 RECOMMENDATIONS

9.1 Rail Rail services • That rail services remain suspended. Reinstating rail services will not meet existing and future public transport needs for the region and patronage demand does not warrant the significant investment (in excess of $900 million9) needed for a safe operational rail corridor. Rail assets • That rail assets be maintained to a minimum standard only; ie to ‘make safe’. • That a safety assessment be conducted on three bridges over public roads that have been identified as a potential safety hazard, to determine definitively whether they should be removed, maintained or replaced. These bridges are over Bangalow Road, Binna Burra, over Terania Street, North Lismore and over Friday Hut Road, Binna Burra. Rail corridor • That further work be undertaken during the development and implementation of the Regional Transport Plan to determine whether a rail corridor to Gold Coast via Tweed Heads should be identified for future land use and transport planning purposes.

9.2 Bus Existing services • That Transport for NSW further investigate improvements (increased frequencies) to the following existing routes: – Route 603 Tweed Heads – Pottsville. – Route 605 Tweed Heads – Murwillumbah. – Route 640 Ballina – Byron Bay – Mullumbimby. – Route 661 Ballina – Lismore. – Route 637 Sunrise Beach – Byron Bay – Suffolk Park. New or amended services • Routes 661 and 662 be restructured to include regular connections to Lismore Hospital, Southern Cross University and Wollongbar TAFE. • Route 637 be updated to be a regular town loop service structured to meet peak visitor periods. • New express services be provided to service the following connection: Bryon Bay – Ballina – Lismore via Bruxner and Pacific Highways.

9 The assumptions underpinning this estimate are provided in Appendix H.

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Better integration • The following routes be integrated in terms of timetable and passenger information: – Services 661 (Lismore/Ballina), 675 (Lismore/Casino), 640 (Ballina/Byron/Mullumbimby). – Services 603 (Tweed Heads/Pottsville) and 605 (Tweed Heads/Murwillumbah) with Queensland TransLink services 765 (to Varsity Lakes Rail) and 760 (to Broadbeach and interchange with Light Rail). Service contracts Preliminary operational expenditure cost estimates for these bus services improvements are outlined in Appendix K. The recommendations related to bus services are illustrated in Figure 34.

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Figure 34 Recommendations related to bus services

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10 BIBLIOGRAPHY

ABS. (2011). 2011 Census. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). AECOM. (2011). High Speed Rail Study - Phase 1. Sydney, NSW: AECOM Australia. Arup. (2012). Options Working Paper. Arup. Sydney: Arup. Arup. (2012, 12 18). Spreadsheet: PT use by age and labour force. Sydney, NSW. Arup: Stage 1. (2012). Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line Study: Stage 1 Condition Assessment. Sydney: Arup. Arup: Stage 4. (2012). Corridor Options - Future Rail Connection to South East Queensland. Sydney: Arup. Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2011). Census: For a brighter future. Retrieved from Census 2011: http://www.abs.gov.au/census Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2012, 03 30). Regional Population Growth, Australia 2010-11. Retrieved 12 11, 2012, from Regional Population Growth, Australia 2010-11: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Previousproducts/3218.0Main%20Features62010- 11?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2010-11&num=&view= Australian Property Monitors. (2012, 09 30). Reports. Retrieved 12 12, 2012, from Domain: http://www.domain.com.au/public/apm/default.aspx?mode=research Ballina Byron Gateway Airport. (2013, 01 17). Airport Updates. Retrieved 02 15, 2013, from Ballina Byron Gateway Airport New Record for Passenger Movements: http://ballinabyronairport.com.au/ballina-byron-gateway-airport-new-record-for-passenger- movements/ Beeton, S. (2006). Regional Communities and Cycling: The Case of the Murray to Mountains Rail. La Trobe University. Bitzios Consulting. (2011). Cross Border Traffic Master Plan. Gold Coast: Bitzios Consulting. Bureau of Transport Statistics. (2011). 2010/11 Household Travel Survey. Sydney, NSW: Bureau of Transport Statistics. Bureau of Transport Statistics. (2012). Household Travel Survey: Northern Rivers. Sydney: Bureau of Transport Statistics. Bureau of Transport Statistics. (2012). Population Forecasts. Sydney: Bureau of Transport Statistics. Byron Bay Shire Council. (2011). Byron Bay Town Centre - Second Rail Crossing. Byron Bay: Byron Bay Shire Council. Central Otago District Council. (2011). Draft Otago Central Rail Trail Long Term Plan. Otago. Chigwidden, G. (2012, November 22). Mini-bypass plan just about buried. Byron Shire News, p. 1. CountryLink. (2012, 10 11). North Coast timetable. Retrieved 12 18, 2012, from Transport CountryLink: http://www.countrylink.info/timetables Department of Education, E. a. (2006, 8 8). Queensland Labour Force Statistics. Retrieved 12 12, 2012, from Labour Market Information Portal: http://www.deewr.gov.au/lmip/default.aspx?LMIP/Publications/QLDLFStats Department of Premier and Cabinet. (2012). Northern Rivers Regional Action Plan. Department of Premier and Cabinet. Sydney: Department of Premier and Cabinet. Gold Coast Airport. (2011). Master Plan 2011. Gold Coast Airport. Gold Coast: Gold Coast Airport Pty Ltd. Infrastructure Australia. (2012). National Land and Freight Strategy. Infrastructure Australia. Canberra: Infrastructure Australia. ITSRR. (2010). Survey of Sydney Metropolitan Bus Users 2010. Independent Transport Safety and Reliability Regulator, Sydney. Mike Haliburton and Associates. (2008). Atherton Tablelands Rail Trails Feasibility Study . Tablelands Regional Council. Mountains, C. i. (2009).

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Northern Rivers Community Transport. (2012). Client Satisfaction Survey 2012. Northern Rivers Community Transport. Northern Rivers Tourism. (2009). Northern Rivers Tourism Incorporated Strategic Plan 2009 – 2011. Northern Rivers Tourism. Bangalow: Northern Rivers Tourism. NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure. (2007). Far North Coast Regional Strategy. NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure. Sydney: NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure. NSW Legislative Council. (2004). Closure of the Casino to Murwillumbah rail service, Report 10. NSW Legislative Council. Sydney: NSW Legislative Council. NSW Treasury. (2011). NSW Long-Term Fiscal Pressures Report: NSW Intergenerational Report 2011-12. Sydney: NSW Government. Otago Central Rail Trail Trust. (2005). The Otago Central Rail Trail Means Business. Otago Central Rail Trail Trust. Parliament of NSW. (2011, 05 11). 0027—CASINO-MURWILLUMBAH RAIL LINE. Retrieved 02 26, 2012, from Questions and answers: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/la/qala.nsf/18101dc36b638302ca257146007ee41a/19 1c5e83d3f28990ca25788600277419?OpenDocument PwC. (2004). Feasibility study for passenger and/or commuter services on the Murwillumbah to Casino branch line. Tweed Shire Council. PwC. Queensland Office of Statistical Research. (2012). Population Growth Highlights and Trends, Queensland 2012. Queensland Treasury and Trade. Brisbane: Queensland Office of Statistical Research. Rail2Trail. (2012). Trekking. Retrieved 12 18, 2012, from Rail2Trail: http://www.rail2trail.org.au/pages/trekking.php Regional Development Australia. (2011). Northern Rivers Regional Profile 2011 Update. Regional Development Australia. Lismore: Regional Development Australia. Regional Development Australia. (2012). http://myregion.gov.au/. Canberra, ACT: Department of Regional Australia, Local Government, Arts and Sport. Rehbein AOS. (2008). Ballina Byron Gateway Airport Development Strategy Review. Ballina: Ballina Shire Council. Todd, N. (2012, December 22). Cross-border taxi rules see $1320 fines. Gold Coast Bulletin. Tourism Forecasting Committee. (2012). Forecast 2012: Issue 1. Canberra: Tourism Research Australia. Tourism Research Australia. (2009). Destination Visitor Survey: Strategic Regional Research - New South Wales. Belconnen: Tourism Research Australia. Tourism Research Australia. (2011). Byron Shire Visitor Profile and Satisfaction Survey. Department of Reources, Energy and Tourism. Canberra: Tourism Research Australia. Transport for NSW. (2008). Rural and Regional Bus Service Contract: Contract B. Sydney: Transport for NSW. Transport for NSW. (2012). Draft NSW Freight and Ports Strategy. Sydney: Transport for NSW. Transport for NSW. (2012). Draft NSW Long Term Transport Masterplan. NSW Government, Transport for NSW. Sydney: Transport for NSW. Transport for NSW. (2012). Draft Transport Needs Assessment (version 4). Sydney: Transport for NSW. Transport for NSW. (2012). NSW Long Term Transport Masterplan. NSW Government, Transport for NSW. Sydney: Transport for NSW.

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APPENDIX A TERMS OF REFERENCE

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Casino – Murwillumbah Transport Study

Terms of Reference

Context

A1624978 | 0.2 1 Terms of Reference CTM Transport Study

On 22 March 2012, the NSW Government announced that a study team had been engaged to undertake a feasibility study of the Casino to Murwillumbah Rail Line. The study represents a broadening of the previously announced engineering and cost evaluation to include consideration of economic, social and environmental benefits.

Passenger rail services between Casino and Murwillumbah, consisting of a daily XPT service were suspended in April 2004. Since then, changes and growth in the region, community expectations and expansion of the South East Queensland public transport network, have led to a need to evaluate existing and future transport requirements for this corridor.

Figure 1 shows the Northern Rivers region and the corridor area subject to this study.

Figure 1: Transport Study Corridor

The NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan Discussion Paper recognises the key transport challenges for the Northern Rivers region including population and employment growth, cross border movement, an aging population, and service-based industries concentrated in Casino, Lismore, Tweed Heads, Byron Bay and Ballina.

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This study will be conducted within the timeframe of the NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan and will closely coordinate with the Master Plan work as well as future Regional Transport Plan initiatives. It will be completed late this year.

Objectives

The Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study will:  Assess the transport needs for the corridor and consider the role, function and capacity of existing transport network and linkages to meet existing and future needs  Evaluate the condition of the existing Casino-Murwillumbah rail infrastructure in order to assess its suitability to accommodate heavy rail or alternative rail options  Assess the role, function and markets served by the Casino-Murwillumbah Rail Line and identify alternative transport options for comparison  Assess need and benefits of future network enhancements including connections to the South East Queensland public transport network  Outline options to address short, medium and long term community and economic transport needs in the corridor  Consult with stakeholders and the community within the Northern Rivers Region to ensure expectations are consistent with the study objectives  Assess the benefits, impacts and costs of feasible options  Deliver reports and other outputs for Government consideration that will also inform development of the Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan and the NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan.

Study Scope

The scope of the study, aligned to the study objectives, is outlined below. (a) Information gathering and review  Review of previous work, reports and studies on the region’s infrastructure and transport services  Existing trip generators (hospitals, education, airports, major business)  Current travel patterns (commuters, visitors, business, regional events)  Existing public transport services including CountryLink Bus, XPT Rail, regional public and community bus services  Condition of existing infrastructure (Casino to Murwillumbah rail)  Existing rail freight network.

(b) Planning Needs and Future Requirements (Strategic Needs Assessment)  NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan and Northern Rivers Regional Transport Plan  Local authority land use plans  Strategic regional initiatives (airports, health and education, development areas)  High speed rail  Casino freight hub  South East Queensland public transport extensions.

(c) Options Identification The study will include consideration of:  Reinstating rail services on the Casino to Murwillumbah line  Use of the rail line for other transport modes

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 Improving regional bus services and infrastructure  Connecting to the South East Queensland public transport network  Both short and long term options as well as staging opportunities.

(d) Options Assessment An assessment of all identified options will be undertaken, assessing benefits, costs and risks over an appropriate timeframe (15 to 20 years), and accounting for:  Economic benefits (including travel time savings, reduced congestion, freight, tourism, land development)  Environmental benefits and impacts  Social benefits and impacts  Risk adjusted capital and operating costs  Revenue generating opportunities including farebox, advertising and commercial opportunities  Land use outcomes including urban regeneration, transit related development  Transport integration  Public interest assessment including accessibility and equity  Funding and affordability.

Study Team

Transport for NSW, the delivery agency for this study, has established a dedicated project team, led by a Project Director who will also be responsible for consultation with key stakeholders. Transport for NSW has also engaged experienced transport planning and engineering consultants, Arup, to support the study team. Contacts: Project Director Tim Poole and Senior Manager Communications Jennifer Shand Email: [email protected]

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APPENDIX B SAMPLE COUNTRYLINK SERVICES

Table 19 Sample weekday trips by CountryLink Coach service (CountryLink, 2012)

Origin – destination Departure – Arrival time Services departing between 8 am to 6 pm

Northbound

Casino to Murwillumbah • 10:00 am – 12:25 pm. One direct service. • 7:15 pm1 – 8:50 pm2 OR 9:54 pm. • 4:10 am – 6:53 am. Casino to Ballina • 4:10 am – 5:23 am. None. Ballina to Byron Bay (only via Lismore) • 8:09 am – 11:27 am. One indirect service. Ballina to Murwillumbah (one trip via • 5:23 am – 6:53 am. One indirect service. Lismore) • 8:09 am – 12:25 pm. Mullumbimby to Kingscliff (only via Casino) • 4:38 pm – 9:20 pm. One indirect service. Byron Bay to Tweed Heads • 5:54 am – 7:23 am. One direct service. • 11:27 am – 12:55 pm. Two indirect services. • 8:42 pm – 10:27 pm. • 5:12 pm – 9:18 pm. • 5:00 pm – 9:18 pm.

Southbound

Murwillumbah to Casino • 6:30 am – 9:25 am. Three direct services. • 7:20 am – 9:31 am. • 3:49 pm – 6:39 pm. • 5:25 pm – 7:12 pm. Ballina to Casino. • 8:09 am – 9:25 pm. One direct service. Byron Bay to Ballina. • 7:28 am to 8:09 am. None. Murwillumbah to Ballina. • 6:30 am to 8:09 am. None. Kingscliff to Mullumbimby (only via Casino). • 7:24 am – 11:45 am. One indirect service. • 4:00 pm – 9:04 pm. Tweed Heads to Byron Bay • 6:00 am – 7:28 am. One direct service. • 3:13 pm – 5:00 pm. • 6:50 am – 11:27 am.

Notes 1. Four coaches depart between 7:08 and 7:15 pm, 2. Two coaches arrive, one at 8:48 pm and another at 8:56 pm.

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APPENDIX C DEMAND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS

C.1 Introduction As part of the study a model was developed to help understand potential travel demand associated with options considered for the Casino to Murwillumbah rail corridor. The purpose was to inform future patronage growth at a pre-feasibility study level. The availability of suitable data used as input to the model was a key consideration in the model’s development, and is equally important in the interpretation of its results. The reliability and robustness of model outputs is dependent on the quality and consistency of the input data. The recently obtained HTS data for the region is a significant improvement on what was previously available. Despite this, overall the transport data for the region is sparse. Given the available data, the model development required significant consideration with respect to: • The model’s zone structure, balancing the geographic level of detail with the available data; and • Developing a modelling methodology that would make best use of the data.

C.2 Modelling approach The modelling approach is summarised as follows: • The model estimates average weekday trips for the Northern Rivers region. • The Northern Rivers region is broken down into 46 internal travel zones and three external travel zones as shown Figure 35. The three external travel zones represent trips from/to: south of Casino via the mainline XPT (South External in Figure 35); north of Kyogle via the mainline XPT (North External in Figure 35); and South-east Queensland via bus (SEQ in Figure 35). • Trip purposes are defined as Home-based work (HBW), Home-based other (HBO) and Other non- home based (ONHB). • Base trip making levels for trips contained within the region (internal-internal trips) are based on trip rates per person obtained from 2006 Journey to Work (JTW) data for HBW trips, and 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS) for HBO and ONHB trips • Private Vehicle (PV) and Public Transport (PT) mode choice for the HBW trips is based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Method of Travel data for 2011. The PV/PT mode split for HBO and ONHB trip purposes is based on HTS data. • The internal-internal distribution of HBW trips is based on destinations recorded in the JTW data; HBO trips are distributed based on the destinations in the HTS data; and ONHB trips are distributed based on a combination of the HBW and HBO distribution patterns.

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Figure 35 Regional model travel zones

• Demand matrix balancing was undertaken to match trips originating from a given zone to the trips destined for the same zone. • Future year demand was calculated by factoring the base trip generation for a given zone by the forecast population growth/contraction rates for the SLA the zone falls within. • External-Internal (E-I), Internal-External (I-E) and External-External (E-E) public transport trips were based on CountryLink annual patronage data and distributed based on the relative weighting of boarding’s at each stop/zone. The yearly data was broken down to an average weekday value by dividing the annual number by 330.

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• E-I, I-E, and E-E PT demand has been grown into the future assuming a growth rate of 1.1 per cent per annum, which is the average rate of population growth for the Northern Rivers region between 2011 and 2031. • E-I, I-E, and E-E private vehicle demand is not included in the model. • Mode shift between PV and PT is accounted for by way of an elasticity model that uses the difference in public transport generalised costs of travel and an elasticity value of -0.3. This assumes that, with other variables remaining equal, a 1 reduction in the generalised cost of public transport will result in a 0.3 increase in public transport trips. Highway costs are assumed to remain the same for all modelled years and scenarios. The elasticity value adopted is a conservative value based on the range of values reported for generalised cost elasticity’s in documentation from the Victoria Transport Policy Institute10. • The travel demand is then assigned and analysed using the proprietary transport planning software Cube Voyager. The assignment is run using four transport modes: private motor vehicle; CountryLink/Greyhound/PremierMotors bus; regular bus; and rail. Other assumptions relating to the travel demand assignment are detailed in Table 20 below.

Table 20 Travel demand assignment assumptions

Theme Notes*

PT Access to public transport stops is represented using highway network travel times via car. Access/Egress To encourage logical access behaviour access times to public transport stops via car have Costs been capped as follows: • CountryLink Bus access/egress = 7 minutes • Regular Bus access/egress = 7 minutes • Rail access/egress = 5 minutes PT Transfer Transfer costs have been calculated using an average walk speed of 7km/h. During Costs calibration of the model this was increased from 5km/h to offset the effect of the coarse network overestimating walk distances.

PT Boarding A boarding penalty of 10 minutes has been applied to CountryLink bus services to Penalties discourage the use of the services for short trips. No boarding penalties have been applied for regular bus or rail modes. Transfer Transfer penalties are applied where public transport users switch from one service to Penalties another. The transfer penalties are based on the ATC guidelines and are as follows: • Bus to Bus (incl. CountryLink) = 10 minutes • Rail to Rail = 4 minutes • Bus (incl. CoutnryLink) to Rail = 6 minutes • Rail to Bus (incl. CoutnryLink) = 6 minutes Fares A simplified representation of fares was adopted based on distance travelled using information from the NSW public transport system. The fares are assumed to be 20 per cent higher for CountryLink, Greyhound and Premier Motors buses and all rail services compared to regular buses.

10 Litman T., Understanding Transport Demand Elasticities – How Prices and Other Factors Affect Travel Behaviour, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, p.48

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Theme Notes*

Wait Time Wait time costs simulate the penalties incurred due to passengers having to wait for public Costs transport services. The wait time formulation used for this model is taken from the ATC guidelines and is as follows: • Wait Time = 0.72 * Headway 0.75 • This wait time is also weighted by the suggested value of 1.4 to reflect higher perceived wait times. In-vehicle Costs In-vehicle times are weighted by the in-vehicle costs according to mode of travel. This reflects passenger perceptions of travelling different modes. The weightings, taken from the ATC guidelines, reflect a preference for rail compared to bus as follows: • Bus (incl. CountryLink) = 1.0 • Rail = 0.9 * ‘ATC guidelines’ refer to the Australian Transport Council’s National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia – Volume 4.

C.3 Model Limitations Geographic resolution Some of the data from which the model derives travel patterns and demand are only available at a coarse geographical level compared to the model’s travel zones. For example, population growth forecasts are only available at SLA level, however in some cases the model has multiple travel zones covering one SLA. In such cases all of the travel zones within the SLA will be attributed the same population growth characteristics for the purposes of forecasting travel patterns and demand. This and other examples of similar limitations are given in Table 21 below.

Table 21 Geographic resolution limitations

Data Set Geographic Relative to model Notes Level zones

Base population SA1 Finer than all SA1 data aggregated to model zones based on model zones SA1 centre point location within model zones. Population growth SLA Coarser than most Similar forecast are therefore applied for all model forecasts model zones zones that fall within a given SLA. Mode share splits SA2 Coarser than most Similar forecast are therefore applied for all model (HBW) model zones zones that fall within a given SA2 zone.

Mode share splits UCL Coarser than some The UCL data was aggregated and applied at a (HBO and ONHB) model zones SLA level to give more meaningful results. For example, using the data at the UCL level would meant that the mode share information would be based on a limited number of records for each zone. Trip rate UCL Coarser than some The UCL data was aggregated and applied at a information model zones SLA level to give more meaningful results.

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C.4 Data period and forecast limitations Other data sets require the application of broad assumptions to ensure the data is usable in the model. For example, the CountryLink patronage totals are only available for the entire 2011/12 financial year. To apply to the average weekday model this demand was divided by 330. This and other examples of similar data period and forecast limitations are given in Table 22 below.

Table 22 Data limitations

Data Set Assumption for model input

Annual CountryLink rail and bus Average weekday patronage is equal to the yearly data divided by 330. patronage for 2009 CountryLink rail and bus Trips will grow in line with average population growth for the region between forecasts 2011 and 2031 as forecast by the ABS (1.1 per cent p.a.)

C.5 Time of Day Travel Representation of trips in the model is at a daily level, which is considered the appropriate level for the available data. Consequently, time of day is not considered as part of the modelling of trips. The main implication of this is that travel demand is not specifically aligned to the timing of public transport services. An example could be a scenario where a person needs to make a trip at 12:00 pm but there is only one bus service per day leaving at 8:00 am. In reality the person would not consider catching the 8:00 am bus service. However, the model would include the bus as a viable option for that person’s trip. The effect of this type of limitation is offset to some degree by the consideration of the frequency of public transport services when making a trip. Low frequency services result in long calculated wait times, making that service less attractive to users.

C.6 Model validation Model validation involves the comparison of model results against observed data and is undertaken to understand the ability of the model to predict current travel demands and patterns. Although not a strict requirement, it is preferred that the observed data used for validation is independent from any data that has been used in model development. In this case, it was decided that since the available data is limited all available data should be used for the model development. It was considered that the data available for the region were not conducive to undertaking a meaningful validation process. Consequently, the model did not undergo a traditional validation process, however sense checks were undertaken to ensure that demand and assignment responses were logical. Given the limitations described above the model better suited to forecast growth rather than absolute forecasts. The interpretation of model results needs to consider this, and it is recommended that scenarios are evaluated against the ‘base’ or ‘reference’ case, rather than relying on absolute demand numbers generated by the model.

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APPENDIX D RAIL MODE OPTION ASSESSMENT

Table 23 Rail based mode options that were eliminated in the preliminary evaluation

Mode Applications Justification for elimination

Bus Rapid Transit Typically employed in urban areas where bus Operating BRT on the rail Public transport priority infrastructure is required for buses to corridor would involve building a system using bus avoid traffic congestion. Examples include road in place of the existing rail vehicles with on-road Brisbane's South East Busway, Northern line. Such costly and time priority measures to Busway and Eastern Busway; and Sydney's consuming works are not provide fast travel Liverpool-Parramatta T- way, North-West T- considered practical since times. way and M2 Bus Corridor. alternative road infrastructure already exists, is currently in use by buses, servicing more areas than the rail alignment including Ballina.

Guided Bus Typically short-distance routes. Only one A guided bus system is not A system, reaching application in Australia on a 12km track, considered suitable or practical speeds of up to introduced in 1986 to service growth in due to the cost of retrofitting the 100km/hr. Adelaide's north-eastern suburbs. The longest existing line with the required guided bus system in the world is 25km long in purpose-built track, in addition to the English county of Cambridgeshire. acquiring specially designed buses.

Light Rail Transit Most applicable to urban areas, running at Using a modern light rail system Typically an urban grade, servicing short journeys and lower such as that being constructed public transport mode passenger loads than heavy rail. Examples on the Gold Coast would require using electrically include the 13km Gold Coast Light Rail current rail infrastructure to be propelled vehicles, currently under construction in Queensland, significantly changed in order to operating on either a and existing systems in Sydney and Adelaide. accommodate this proposal. It is segregated corridor or furthermore unlikely that such a mixed with on- road system would be suitable for the traffic at lower speeds longer distances and limited and with lower stops specific to this corridor, carrying capacity than due in part to the limited number heavy rail. of seating in vehicles (which are designed for relatively short urban trips).

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APPENDIX E DEMAND MODELLING

E.1 Base case The region’s population growth, and more importantly the way that growth differs across the region, drive the demand forecasts. Areas experiencing higher relative growth rates will consequently generate more trips. This data were informed further by household travel surveys conducted11 in August 2012. The findings of this work are: • The three greatest areas of growth in trips are Tweed Heads, Bryon Bay and Ballina. • There are less trips originating out of Casino, however the region around Casino is forecast to experience an increase in trips that offsets this decline. • All other areas show marginal increases in trip activity (ie below 0.5 per cent per annum).

Figure 36 The highest growth in travel demand across the region from 2011 to 2031 occurs between these locations

Note: this growth is from a relatively low base of existing trips.

Significantly, none of these highest growth areas occur on the existing rail line corridor, and indeed growth forecasts between locations along the corridors provide further evidence of this. Byron Bay features prominently in the top origin – destination pairs (refer to Figure 37). While some growth is apparent, the highest growth on the rail alignment is relatively low, ranging from 16 per cent to 38 per cent, compared with the high travel demand growth pairs along the coastline ranging from 64 per cent to 74 per cent.

11 The assumptions underpinning this model can be found in Arup’s Casino to Murwillumbah Options Working Paper, 2012.

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Figure 37 The highest growth in travel demand for locations along the rail corridor occurs between these locations, 2011 to 2031

E.2 Options Table 24 summarises the options that were explored in addition to the base case; ie demand that could be induced by changing services offered. The two mode options shortlisted in Section 7.3.2 – XPT and railcar shuttle services – were considered, along with improvements on the existing CountryLink Coach service (summarised in Section 5.2.3). Within these broad options, sub options dealing with staging have been modelled, principally either Casino to Murwillumbah or Casino to Lismore/Byron Bay.

Table 24 Options tested

Option Sub-option Details

Option 1 1A Terminating at • Option 1 aims to understand the implications of extending the Reinstatement of Murwillumbah current XPT service that terminates at Casino along all or part XPT services. 1B Terminating at of the line. One return service per day would operate. One service each Lismore • Option 1A service would stop at Casino, Lismore, Bangalow, way per day. Byron Bay and Mullumbimby. CountryLink bus services were removed where they were in direct competition with the rail service. • No bus services were removed for Option 1B, however all CountryLink bus services were truncated to run from Lismore rather than from Casino. • The run time for the full rail service (ie Casino to Murwillumbah) was assumed to be 129 minutes.

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Option Sub-option Details

Option 2 2A Terminating at • Option 2 involves running a rail shuttle along all or part of the Operation of a rail Murwillumbah line at a frequency of 9 services per day in each direction. shuttle. 2B Terminating at • Buses were removed where they directly competed with rail. Nine services each Byron Bay Stations along the full length of the line were Casino, Lismore, way per day. Bangalow, Byron Bay, Mullumbimby, Billinudgel, Burringbah and Murwillumbah. • The run time for the full rail service (ie Casino to Murwillumbah) was assumed to be 129 minutes. Option 3 No sub-options • Option 3 aims to understand the implication of investment in Additional bus services as opposed to rail. For simplicity the test involved CountryLink bus increasing the frequency of existing CountryLink bus services, services rather than specifically designing new bus routes to service specific needs. The improved frequency of bus services was Four services per in the order of an increase from one service per day to four day each way. services per day.

E.3 Results The results of the demand modelling undertaken by the Transport Study team are summarised in Table 25 and Table 26. The line item for ‘public transport change (relative to base case)’ represents the number of additional public transport trips per day that are forecast to occur as a direct result of implementing that option. It is clear from the results that Option 3 is the best performing option, both for 2011 and 2031 results. More people are likely to use this improved service than either of the rail based options. The improvement in frequency of the CountryLink bus services from one service per day to four services per day has the most pronounced impact on increasing mode share when compared to any of the other options tested. This is due to the better accessibility of bus services to a larger number of population centres when compared to the rail options. Furthermore, public transport that directly services the higher growth areas of Ballina, Byron Bay and Tweed Heads will show a greater response in public transport patronage than those servicing the low growth areas of Casino, Lismore and Murwillumbah. Option 3 is best suited to service these faster growing areas because the bus network can reach them directly. The rail options would rely on bus connections at Byron Bay to service this demand, and this requirement to interchange acts a disincentive against using public transport. The change in bus demand under Option 3 when compared to the Base Case is shown in Figure 38. The highest increases (in green) are seen along the coast between Ballina and the Tweed Coast, servicing coastal travel, which is likely to grow most significantly in future. Some reduction in bus patronage, shown by the yellow lines, is noted on some non-CountryLink services. This is due to the increased frequency of the CountryLink services being perceived as a more attractive travel option.

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Figure 38 2011 results: change in bus patronage for Option 3 compared to the Base Case

The railcar shuttle options perform better than the XPT options (1A and 1B), but even the better performing Option 2A (terminates at Murwillumbah) is significantly below Option 3. Significantly, both the XPT options and Lismore-terminating railcar shuttle option result in a decrease in patronage; ie it is better to ‘do nothing’ than pursue those options (which are costly). This is due to the removal of some CountryLink bus services that the rail services would replace. The removal of these bus services disadvantages some passengers because the more comprehensive geographical coverage of the bus network serves their travel needs better than the rail alignment. The main beneficiaries of the XPT extension options (1A and 1B) would be those who currently alight at Casino to travel to an area directly on the rail alignment. These passengers would no longer need to interchange at Casino. However passengers travelling to areas remote from the rail alignment still need to interchange and may be faced with less bus options than they previously had from Casino.

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Table 25 Results for 2011: Option 3 generates the greatest mode shift from private vehicles to public transport

Statistic Base case Option 1A Option 1B Option 2A Option 2B Option 3 Do nothing XPT to Mur XPT to Lis RSh to Mur RSh to Byr CtrL impvts

Private vehicle trips 629,739 629,768 629,753 629,708 629,746 629,617 per day Public transport trips 11,212 11,187 11,198 11,263 11,210 11,368 per day

Public transport 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.76% 1.75% 1.77% mode share Public transport - - 25 - 14 51 - 2 156 change (relative to base case) Public transport - - 0.22% - 0.12% 0.45% - 0.02% 1.39% change in %

Note: does not include travel to/from areas outside of the Northern Rivers region

Table 26 Results for 2031: Option 3 generates the greatest mode shift from private vehicles to public transport

Statistic Base case Option 1A Option 1B Option 2A Option 2B Option 3 Do nothing XPT to Mur XPT to Lis RSh to Mur RSh to Byr CtrL impvts

Private vehicle trips 785,341 785,381 785,359 785,309 785,355 785,199 per day Public transport trips 14,659 14,625 14,642 14,718 14,652 14,862 per day Public transport 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 1.84% 1.83% 1.86% mode share

Public transport - - 34 - 17 59 - 7 203 change (relative to base case) Public transport - - 0.23% - 0.12% 0.40% - 0.05% 1.38% change in %

Note: does not include travel to/from areas outside of the Northern Rivers region While the modelling provides some clarity on the relative performance of each option, it is important to note the very small increases in patronage overall. Option 3 is a simple test of increasing the frequency of existing bus routes, not a comprehensively designed bus network. Nevertheless, it highlights the potential of bus service improvements to service travel demand in the region. It is likely that a well-designed bus network targeting specific patterns of travel demand would produce a greater benefit for the region.

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APPENDIX F ASSESSMENT AGAINST MASTER PLAN OBJECTIVES

This appendix provides further detail on the information that is summarised in Section 7.3.3 of the Transport Study. The table provided in Appendix F.1 outlines the scoring framework for assessing the performance of each option against the objectives. No weighting has been applied to the ratings. The assessment of each option with respect to the Master Plan objectives is provided in Appendices F.2 to F.7.

F.1 Scoring framework

Rating Description

3 • Major positive impacts resulting in substantial and long-term improvements or enhancements of the existing case. • Substantial benefits flowing to a large number of people/industries. 2 • Moderate positive impact, possibly of: – Short-term duration with significant benefits; or – Medium-term duration with resultant mid-range benefits; or  – Long-term duration with mid-range or lower benefits. • Positive outcomes may be in terms of new opportunities and outcomes of enhancement or improvement. • Benefits flowing to a specific range of people or industries in certain areas 1 • Minimal positive impact, possibly only lasting over the short-term. • May be confined to a limited area or to limited people/industries. 0 • Neutral – no discernible or predicted positive or negative impact -1 • Minimal negative impact, probably short-term, able to be managed or mitigated, and will not cause substantial detrimental impacts. May be confined to a small area or to a limited number of people/industries -2 • Moderate negative impact. Impacts may be: – Short-term duration with significant impacts; or – Medium-term duration with resultant mid-range impacts; or  – Long-term duration with mid-range or lower impacts. • Impacts will most likely respond to management actions. • Impacts affecting a moderate area, a specific range of people or industries in certain areas -3 • Major negative impacts with long-term and possibly irreversible impacts leading to serious damage, degradation or deterioration of the physical, economic or social environment. • Substantial impacts affecting a large number of people/industries. • Possible mitigation measures impose significant cost.

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F.2 Rating against quality of service

Objective: Improve quality of service – by putting the customer at the centre of transport planning and service delivery, improving the quality of travel experiences, offering more travel choices and providing integrated services that directly meet our travel requirements.

Option 1a: XPT extension to Murwillumbah Rating 1

• Improves the travel experience for the specific market of XPT customers travelling from or to areas on the rail corridor. The improvement would be primarily attributed to the ride quality of train compared to bus and the more direct service for those passengers on the corridor who would no longer need to interchange to a coach service at Casino. • Does not offer more travel choice since the existing CountryLink coach service already services the rail corridor. • Once per day service does not address the region’s wide-ranging travel needs.

Option 1b: XPT extension to Lismore Rating 0

• Improve the travel experience a small number of XPT customers travelling to or from Lismore. The improvement in the form of ride quality of train compared to bus over the short distance, and the elimination of the Casino interchange for those passengers travelling directly to or from Lismore. • Does not offer more travel choice since it simply replaces the Casino-Lismore section currently covered by buses. • Does not address the region’s overall travel requirements.

Option 2a: Casino to Murwillumbah rail shuttle Rating 1

• Similar to Option 1, with the additional benefit of higher frequency of nine services per day • Does not significantly improve travel choice since in terms of geographic coverage since replaces the role of existing coach services covering the rail corridor. • Offers some travel choice improvement through temporal coverage through more frequent services throughout the day. • Would have to be augmented with specifically designed bus services to meet the region’s travel requirements outside the rail corridor.

Option 2b: Casino to Byron rail shuttle Rating 1

• Similar to Option 2a, but offers less geographic coverage

Option 3: Improvement to bus services Rating 2

• If well planned, has the potential to improve the quality of travel experiences, offer more travel choices and improve the integration of services to meet the region’s travel requirements. • Improvements could be in the form of increased frequency of services, expanded coverage to serve growth and currently unmet public transport demand, integrated transport maps and ticketing to simplify the customer’s experience, and enhanced inter-town and cross-border connections.

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F.3 Rating against liveability

Objective: Improve liveability – by shaping our cities and major centres, improving connectivity, providing services that support jobs growth in centres close to where people live, and facilitating ease of movement in our major cities and activity centres.

Option 1a: XPT extension to Murwillumbah Rating 0

• Not expected to improve liveability in the region in any significant way • Once per day XPT would mainly serve longer distance trips to and from the region rather than improving movement or specifically supporting jobs growth within the region.

Option 1b: XPT extension to Lismore Rating 0

• Not expected to improve liveability in the region in any significant way. • Does not specifically facilitate movement within the region or support jobs growth within the region.

Option 2a: Casino to Murwillumbah rail shuttle Rating 1

• Potential to improve liveability by improving direct connectivity between towns on the rail corridor. • Requires support of an integrated bus service to properly facilitate movement throughout the region

Option 2b: Casino to Byron rail shuttle Rating 1

• Similar to Option 2a, but offers less geographic coverage, potentially improving liveability in limited areas through direct coverage between Casino, Lismore, Bangalow and Byron.

Option 3: Improvement to bus services Rating 3

• Shows the most potential of all options improving liveability in the region • Most suited to catering for the region’s strong demand for short trips within centres and between neighbouring towns, facilitating ease of movement within the region.

F.4 Rating against economic growth, productivity and regional development

Objective: Support economic growth, productivity and regional development – by providing a transport system that responds directly to customer needs, is more efficient, increases freight efficiency and improves the connectivity and accessibility of people to other people, opportunities, goods and services.

Option 1a: XPT extension to Murwillumbah Rating -2

• Unlikely to significantly improve economic growth, productivity and development. • More efficient for a small number of XPT passengers travelling to areas on the rail corridor, however this small group is not considered a major driver of the region’s economic growth. • Cost of reinstating and operating rail very high compared with low forecast patronage.

Option 1b: XPT extension to Lismore Rating -1

• As per Option 1a, unlikely to significantly improve economic growth, but lower cost to reinstate and operate rail.

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Option 2a: Casino to Murwillumbah rail shuttle Rating 1

• Supports some level economic growth and productivity by directly connecting towns along the corridor with a relatively high frequency service. • The service would be more efficient for some customers, however the cost of implementing and running the rail service is significant and therefore may not constitute an efficient transport solution for the level of demand it would serve.

Option 2b: Casino to Byron rail shuttle Rating 1

• Similar to Option 2a, benefiting fewer areas of the region. • Lower cost of implementation compared to Option 2a.

Option 3: Improvement to bus services Rating 3

• Has the ability to directly respond to customer needs in the region, particularly short trips within towns and between neighbouring towns. • Forecast increased demand for coastal travel can also be supported by improving and expanding bus services. • Improved bus connections between the Tweed region and South East Queensland would also support economic development and productivity by providing better access to South East Queensland’s significant employment base.

F.5 Rating against safety and security

Objective: Improve safety and security – by placing a high priority on addressing the causes and risks of transport accidents and security incidents

Option 1a: XPT extension to Murwillumbah Rating 0

• Removes approximately 1,000 daily bus kilometres, reducing the risk of road accidents. • The rail line has a large number of level crossings, which would be managed according to appropriate safety standards, however level crossings still pose some accident risk.

Option 1b: XPT extension to Lismore Rating 0

• Removes approximately 300 daily bus kilometres, reducing the risk of road accidents. • A number of level crossings between Casino and Lismore, would need to be managed according to appropriate safety standards, however level crossings still pose some accident risk.

Option 2a: Casino to Murwillumbah rail shuttle Rating 0

• As per Option 1a, approximately 1,000 daily bus kilometres removed • Small number of trips made by car would shift to rail, reducing road accident risk • Higher level crossing accident risk than Option 1a, with nine times the frequency of trains

Option 2b: Casino to Byron rail shuttle Rating 0

• Similar to Option 2a, with lower level crossing accident risk due to fewer crossings.

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Option 3: Improvement to bus services Rating 1

• Increases the number of bus kilometres, however Option 3 has the most impact on shifting trips made by car to the bus mode, reducing road accident risk.

F.6 Rating against social disadvantage

Objective: Reduce social disadvantage – by improving access to goods, services and employment and education opportunities for people across all parts of the State.

Option 1a: XPT extension to Murwillumbah Rating 0

• Has the potential to have a minor impact on reducing social disadvantage. • Trains are generally more accessible than buses for people with disabilities, mobility issues and those travelling with children. Trains have more space enabling people to move more freely and are better suited for carrying prams and wheelchairs. • However, since the Casino XPT is a once per day service it is unlikely to address social disadvantage issues in the region.

Option 1b: XPT extension to Lismore Rating 0

• Not expected to provide any significant contribution to reducing social disadvantage in the region since it only benefits a very small number of passengers over a relatively short distance in the context of the region.

Option 2a: Casino to Murwillumbah rail shuttle Rating 1

• Similarly to Option 1a, reduces social disadvantage for areas along the rail line with trains being more accommodating to wheelchairs, prams and other bulky items than buses are. • Has a larger impact compared to Option 1a due to higher frequency of trains.

Option 2b: Casino to Byron rail shuttle Rating 1

• Similar to Option 2a, with the benefits limited to the rail line between Casino and Byron.

Option 3: Improvement to bus services Rating 1

• Would reduce social disadvantage by improving public transport access to services, employment and education centres throughout the region. • Would not address social disadvantage of the mobility impaired associated with lack of space on buses and ability to carry bulky items.

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F.7 Rating against sustainability

Objective: Improve sustainability – by maintaining and optimising the use of the transport network, easing congestion, growing the proportion of travel by sustainable modes such as public transport, walking and cycling, and becoming more energy efficient

Option 1a: XPT extension to Murwillumbah Rating 0

• Expected to have a minor positive sustainability impact. • Train would travel approximately 230 additional kilometres per day, while the associated reduction of CountryLink bus kilometres would be approximately 1,000km. • Low patronage expected. • No significant reduction in car travel expected.

Option 1b: XPT extension to Lismore Rating 0

• Slightly less benefit than Option 1a. • Approximately 60km of train travel would replace approximately 300km of bus travel.

Option 2a: Casino to Murwillumbah rail shuttle Rating 1

• More public transport trips than Option 1 • Approximately 2,000km of rail travel per day and reduction in bus kilometres of approximately 1,000km per day. • Very minor shift predicted from car to the more sustainable public transport mode.

Option 2b: Casino to Byron rail shuttle Rating 1

• Similar to Option 2a.

Option 3: Improvement to bus services Rating 2

• Some car trips predicted to shift to the more sustainable bus mode.

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APPENDIX G ASSESSMENT OF ROUTE OPTIONS

G.1 Design principles that guided the route option selection • Railway to be used for passenger use only. • The track is to be Class 2 (which is similar to the existing Casino to Murwillumbah railway line). • Standard gauge (track spacings at 1.435 metre) is to be adopted which would also allow for a narrow gauge if required (1.067 metre track spacings). • The railway is to be non-electrified. • Speed of the alignment to be 120 kilometres per hour. • Includes provision for two tracks and one vehicular access road. • Stations to be located at approximate spacing of 7.5 to 10 kilometres apart, these are to be located to suit higher population areas and towns. • Railway crossings of the road network should be grade separated unless existing railway corridors provide exception.

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G.2 Summary of constraints and opportunities

Table 27 Summary of terrain, environmental and social constraints for each segment

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APPENDIX H COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS

The following assumptions have been made in preparing cost estimates: • The prices are as at December 2012. • The construction of culverts is based on “cut and cover” construction. No allowance to underbore the rail line has been included. • The estimate is a desktop study only based on the condition report provided by Arup (Arup: Stage 1, 2012). • Bridges have been priced as a repair cost and also as a new replacement cost. The cost transferred to the summary is a total of 50 per cent of each total. • The cost of the level crossings is an upgrade cost only. No allowance has been for new level crossings. • No allowance any spoil or demolition disposal costs. • No allowance for treatment, handling or disposal of any contaminated material. The following have been excluded from the estimate: • Any escalation. • Signalling on the track only warning for the level crossings. • Communications along the track. • Any work on the stations. • No allowance for new stations. • No allowance for any structural repair of the tunnels nor for the enlarging of the tunnels to fit a particular type of train.

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$1,787,110 $1,787,110 $9,337,920 $9,337,920 $7,690,320 $7,690,320 $1,281,720 $90,300,000 $90,300,000 $26,600,000 $26,600,000 $20,380,000 $10,253,760 $19,100,500 $47,630,776 $161,404,430 $161,404,430 $128,172,000 $119,076,940 $119,076,940 Total Total $210,160 $210,160 $523,010 $523,010 Node 4 Node 4 Murwillumbah Mullumbimby – Mullumbimby $312,370 $312,370 $868,040 $868,040 $4,200,000 $4,200,000 $5,510,000 $10,500,000 $4,490,000 $2,790,000 $2,790,000 $3,416,000 $2,533,920 $2,533,920 $1,692,480 $1,874,220 $1,874,220 $2,498,960 $1,260,960 $1,681,280 $18,600,000 $18,600,000 $30,738,840 $20,700,000 $23,562,210 $10,116,335 $10,116,335 $25,290,838 $8,905,210 $22,263,025 $31,237,000 $31,237,000 $21,016,000 $101,163,350 $101,163,350 $89,052,100 $476,307,760

Node 3 Node 3 Byron Bay – Bay Byron Mullumbimby

090,650 090,650 $466,330 $466,330 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $4,240,000 Bay Bay $37,200,000 $37,200,000 $12,707,000 $12,707,000 $48,359,040 $48,359,040 Node 2 Node 2 Lismore – Byron Lismore – Byron $292,860 $292,860 $540,960 $540,960 $4,570,560 $396,060 $396,060 $187,500 $6,140,000 $6,140,000 $4,900,000 $4,900,000 $1,757,160 $2,797,980 $2,342,880 $2,342,880 $3,730,640 $9,265,615 $19,343,616 $92,656,150 $92,656,150 $193,436,160 $29,286,000 $29,286,000 $46,633,000 $23,164,038 $13,800,000 $13,800,000 $33,012,730 $33,012,730 $74, Lismore Lismore Node 1 Casino – Casino Node 1 ESTIMATED REPAIR COSTS APPENDIX I I.1 Costs by node services of XPT allow the re-introduction to the existing rail line costs to repair Table 28 Estimated construction Asset Culverts Large Level Crossings Overbridges Small Culverts Tunnels Underbridges Fencing Vegetation Control Drainage Trackwork Work Geotechnical Subtotal (10%) Management and Design (25%) Preliminaries

Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study Version 2.1 NOT YET GOVERNMENT POLICY 125 ,880 ,164 ,520 3 6 5 $71,44 $238,15 $952,61 Total Total .3.3 alling and other 7 7 n n $44,526,050 $44,526,050 $13,357,815 Node 4 Node 4 $178,104,200 $178,104,200 llumbimby – llumbimby sed in Section sed in Section urwillumbah uencies, different sig u q o M M 1 1 952,615,520 386,872,320 y – $952,615,520 $185,312,300 $582,184,620 g options prop g options 2,326,700 2,326,700 0,581,675 0,581,675 5,174,503 rail line mby truction cost truction 3 tations; eg higher fre $ $ a i n c 0 5 > > $ $1 $2 Node Byron B Byron Mullumb ainst the stagi ainst the ix H. nt operational expe Estimated cons the to reinstate Section 7.3.3. Section 7.3.3. g g d d r re ppen A Bay Bay $96,718,080 $96,718,080 $29,015,424

Node 2 Node 2 $386,872,320 $386,872,320 re Bay more – Byron more – Byron vided in ns proposed in ns because of the diffe illumbah illumbah illumbah mby ine compared a i i r r o o n s n s o o o o w w w w Li b-staging opti b-staging asino – asino tion ore ore 5,312,300 5,312,300 6,328,075 6,328,075 3,898,423 timation are pr instate the rail l instate ating at Mullumb ating at minating at Mur minating at Lism minating at Mur minating at Byro minating s is likely to be highe likely to s is ng options u u p p r r r r C r r r r C 8 4 1 8 4 1 e e s s n n e e m m $ $ Te Te Te Te $1 Lis Sub-o 1B 2B

1A 2A Node 1 ates with the s s. s. Termi s. ing to stagi ay. rvice to railcar shuttl ning the cost e y. son son uction cost to r uction e e e r d m a d nd Profit (15%) nd Profit (15%) st of reinstating to s nt of XPT servic nt of XPT servic (50%) a rail shuttle. a rail shuttle. s each way per way per s each knowns - igns these esti ptions underpin stimated const . each way per d each way per tion for compari osts accor f f l l o o a a y e e y e e c c e e n n e p p E E m m 1 Asset U Risk and Contingenc Overheads Total I.2 C Table 29 a The assu Table 29 Option Option 1 Reinstatem One service Option 2 Operation o Nine servic o Another Reinstatem Notes 1. The c technology, et

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APPENDIX J RAIL TRAIL CASE STUDIES

Case Study 1 – Murray to Mountains Rail Trail The Murray to Mountains Rail Trail is located in northeast Victoria. Three local government areas combined to promote the conversion of the disused railway between the townships of Wangaratta, Bright and Beechworth. The fundamental reason for developing the project was to increase the regions tourism and economic potential. State and federal government funding supported development of the trail with ongoing maintenance and upgrading costs met by local government. Several studies have been carried out to assess the economic impact of rail trails on regional communities in Victoria. The most recent research carried out in 2009 showed that cyclists on the Murray to Mountain Rail Trail spend an average $244 a day compared to the $159 average spend of other travellers in the region (Beeton, 2006, p. 3). The author, Professor Sue Beeton stated that ‘the study provides strong evidence that recreational cyclists are a high yield, high spending market and provide numerous economic and social opportunities for the region’. Earlier studies, carried out in 2006, found that cyclists on the Murray to Mountain Rail Trail contributed $2.3 million to the local economy and created the equivalent of 21 full time jobs (Beeton, 2006, p. P18). Case Study 2 – Otago Central Rail Trail The Central Otago Rail Trail is 150 kilometres long and follows the former Otago Central railway line between Middlemarch and Clyde. The rail trail passes through a predominantly rural landscape and provided a link between New Zealand’s most prosperous goldfields and Dunedin. When gold declined, the rail line was used a key transport and freight route serving the Central Otago farming community. The rail line remained an important transport link up until 1990 when the construction of the Clyde Dam was completed and road based freight became more popular. The success of the Otago Central Rail Trail has been assessed through Rail Trail User Surveys and analysis. It is recognized as a significant recreational and tourism asset that contributes more than $12 million to the Central Otago economy, creates business opportunities and has invigorated small communities along its route (Central Otago District Council, 2011, p. p5).

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APPENDIX K PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATES

K.1 Preliminary operational expenditure cost estimates for recommended improved bus services

Route Current week day Recommended frequency (both Total additional frequency (both directions) costs (annual) directions)

603- Tweed Hourly from 8am to • 30 minutes from 7am to 10am, 3pm – $466,128 Heads/Pottsville 8pm 6pm, hourly otherwise until 8pm • Equals 12 additional daily trips. 605- Tweed Hourly from 7:30am to • 30 minutes from 7am to 10am, 3pm – $453,024 Heads/Murwillumb 5:30pm 6pm, hourly otherwise until 8pm. ah • Equals 16 additional daily trips. 640- Ballina/Byron Every 90 minutes from • Hourly from 7am to 6pm. $310,798 Mullumbimby 7am to 3pm • Equals 9 additional daily trips. 661- Every 30 minutes from • Every 30 minutes from 6am to 10am, 3pm $608,065 Ballina/Lismore 6:30am to 8:30am, to 6pm, otherwise hourly until 8pm. then every 90 minutes • Equals 20 additional daily trips. until 5pm 637- Sunrise Hourly from 7:30am to • Half hourly on weekends and school $144,861 Beach- Byron – 6:30pm, week days holidays, equals 3,744 trips annually. Suffolk Park only • Week day services to remain unchanged, equals 5,724 trips annually. New express N/A • Every 60 mins Monday- Friday 8am-8pm $995,345 service- Byron – • Equals 24 daily trips. Ballina- Lismore via Bruxner and Pacific Highways Sub total $2,978,221 Contingency $595,644

Grand total $3,573,864

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Approx Approx no. of drivers Approx Approx no. of buses Annual km Annual costs $3.32 2 $3.32 2 2 $3.63 2 1 $2.29 1 $2.24 1 2 Approximate Additional In Approximate Hours Service Route takes 55 mins one way 55 mins one Route takes = 660) (55x12 daily = 11 hours hours 52x5x11 = 2860 way 42 mins one Route takes Approximately 672) (42x16= 52x5x 11= 2860 daily 11 hours hours = (85x9 85 mins Route takes 13 hours 765) Approximately daily hours 3380 52x5x13= (90x20= 90 mins Route takes daily 52x5x30 30 hours 1800) hours = 7800 Approximate Approximate yearly extra kms 140,400 kms kms 140,400 kms 124,800 kms 135,720 kms 296,400 Approximate Approximate kilometres of single bus route 45 kms 45 kms (12x45x5x52) 30 kms (16x30x5x52) Additional daily services services daily Additional 6 trips 7-10am 6 trips 3-6pm trips Additional = 12 6 trips 7-10am 6 trips 3-6pm s 4 trips after trips Additional = 16 trips Additional = 9 58 kms trips Additional = 20 (9x58x5x52) 57 kms (20x57x5x52) K.2 Assumptions Route 603- Tweed Heads/Pottsville 605- Tweed Heads/Murwillu mbah 640- Ballina/Byron Mullumbimby 661- Ballina/Lismore

Casino to Murwillumbah Transport Study Version 2.1 130 NOT YET GOVERNMENT POLICY Approx Approx no. of drivers Approx Approx no. of buses Annual km Annual costs $2.24 0 2 $2.24 3 5 Approximate Additional In Approximate Hours Service Route takes 30 mins (5724x30 (5724x30 30 mins Route takes = 171720) hours = 2862 40 (100x24=2400) 100 mins 10,480 hours daily 52x5x40= hours Approximate Approximate yearly extra kms 57,240 kms kms 449,280 Approximate Approximate kilometres of single bus route 10 kms 10 kms = 5724X10 Additional daily services services daily Additional Weekends = 36 7.30am to 6.30pm day end week trips each weekend each and 72 trips trips year = 3744 School holidays day 11 school 36 trips each trips holiday weeks = 1980 a year = 5724 trips Total annual trips Additional = 24 72 kms (24x72x5x52) Route 637- Sunrise – Byron Beach- Suffolk Park express New – Byron service- Ballina- Lismore via Bruxner and Pacific Highways

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